Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 127 - 9/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 127 - 9/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 127 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week. We are now just a day away from
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football returning. That's right, Thursday Night
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Football. I'm looking at already the
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Dallas Cowboys and the Giants, where we open The Cowboys, I
0:46
think they're as high as -6 1/2 at one point, got all the way
0:49
down to four and a half, and they're now creeping back up to
0:51
5 1/2 or 6. Boy, that's going to be a
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contrarian play with AG men. We'll talk about that one for
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tomorrow. And then I am looking at a
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college game. Army Temple.
1:01
So we did see a big move toward Army.
1:02
They open like -11 on the road. They're as high as 12 or 13.
1:06
So I might have a play or two for you for Thursday Night
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Football, both college and pro. But look looking toward today,
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guys, I have a big six pack for you, including five Major League
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Baseball bets. I'm looking at some more unders
1:19
bearing the lead, but then also a WNBA play.
1:22
There's a playoff game here tonight that I'm expecting some
1:24
points in. And then we're going to look at
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NFL Week 5. We spent yesterday or sorry, NFL
1:29
Week 4. We spent yesterday talking
1:31
college football early sharp moves for Week 5.
1:34
Now let's look at the NFL slate, see if we can pick off some good
1:36
numbers before they move. And I'll tell you right now,
1:38
there's a couple dogs I love and there's a couple epic fade, the
1:41
trendy dogs that I'm looking at. So a six pack of sweats today,
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five Major League Baseball bats, one WNBA playoff bet, and some
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NFL early sharp report action. However, I buried the lead and
1:53
boy did I bury it. How about A51 in one night?
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Last night guys, plus 3.39 units.
1:59
You love to see it. Not only do we have a good
2:00
night, but we went into yesterday with a theory, a hype,
2:04
an experiment, a hypothesis, which was not just, you know,
2:08
bringing it out of thin air, but a theory and a hypothesis based
2:11
upon, hey, late in the season, unders are doing very well in
2:14
Major League Baseball. Maybe it's because, you know,
2:17
the teams just want to end the season and they're not as
2:19
motivated, you know, to put up offensive numbers, whatever the
2:22
case may be. You see, early in the year and
2:24
late in the year, unders do well.
2:25
And boy, did the unders count come through last night. 5 one
2:28
and 1 + 3.39 units had some great hits, including I think
2:33
the best hit overall that Dodgers under 8 1/2.
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Because if you didn't see how that game ended, I tweeted it
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out at Josh under Score Insights.
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But the Dodgers under 8 1/2, there was an epic triple play to
2:45
end the game. Manny Machado, there's a lot.
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There's a ground ball, the third touch, 3rd through the 2nd
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through the 1st to end the game. Make it a four to two game.
2:53
Why is that important? Because if that was a two run
2:56
and actually Otani was on deck, but if the Dodgers had scored
2:59
two runs and made it four to four, we automatically lose
3:01
because you're guaranteed a ninth run there.
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So we got that under thanks to Manny Machado.
3:06
Colorado under 10 1/2 with the hook.
3:09
Love to see it. Minnesota under 8.
3:11
That was a nice one because I think they scored five runs in
3:13
the first two innings and I'm like, OK, we ain't getting that
3:15
one. Then they got blank the rest of
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the way. Beautiful Yankees under 8 1/2.
3:20
That one got dicey and but it came through.
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The one that was no sweat at all was Washington.
3:24
Kansas City under 7 1/2. Only one run and they were 00, I
3:28
think into like the 9th or 10th inning.
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Only loser was the Cubs under 8 1/2 and they erupted for like 10
3:34
runs, so that one wasn't close. But either way guys, you love to
3:37
see it. We had a theory, we had an idea,
3:40
we tested that idea, and boy did we cook with some gasoline last
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night. So a great night. 5 one and 1 +
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3.39 units. So I'm thinking, let's keep the
3:50
good times rolling. I want to start with Major
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League Baseball after a great night last night.
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Now we have September Unders 159 and one 3554%.
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You're up 11 units. If the total is 8 or more, those
4:02
unders are 56% with a 7% ROI. So I'll bury the lead as I have
4:07
said that many times. The over 2 1/2 is already
4:09
cashed. But guess what guys?
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I'm looking at 5 unders again tonight.
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I'm riding that under train. So first on the board for me.
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Let's see if we can get some revenge at Citizens Bank
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Ballpark. I am looking at Chicago and
4:21
Philly under 8. Now this total open at 8 1/2.
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It's been bet down to 8. What's notable to me is the
4:28
public's playing the over. 69% of bets are going over, yet we
4:32
saw that total fall. Now if you're playing the under,
4:35
it's pretty much under eight across the board, but you might
4:38
be that might have access to ESPN bet they're 8 1/2 under
4:42
-125. So you're paying some more
4:44
juice, but you're getting the hook there.
4:45
So always shop around, get the best price.
4:47
Now the pitching match up. Tonight we have Javier Assad
4:50
going for Chicago seven and five, 3.34 ERA against
4:54
Christopher Sanchez, 11 and nine, 3.25 ERA.
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Sanchez, by the way, 1.8 O ERA and four September starts.
5:01
Hopefully he'll pitch well tonight.
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Also, Philly's a big favorite close to -200 so maybe you don't
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need the last at bat in the 9th inning.
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Maybe you're up big and when you know 6 to nothing, something
5:11
like that, that would be nice. I'm also looking at the weather.
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It's going to be kind of cool, 65° and the wind is blowing
5:17
right to left around 10 mph. But what jumped out to me is the
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fact that nearly 70% of bets are going over get the total fell 8
5:24
1/2 to 8. And again, we have a big
5:27
favorite. We got some wind to our in our
5:30
advantage, some good reverse line movement.
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I'm going to back Sanchez and Assad under 8 1/2.
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If you can find it again, I have access to ESPN.
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Bet they're still hanging. 8 1/2 under -125 you can get the hook
5:41
even better. If not, I'll go under 8 with the
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Cubbies and the fills. That's an early game.
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Six O 5:00 PM Eastern Time. First pitch.
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Next one for you I'm looking at. Let me find it for you, Kansas
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City, Washington. If it ain't broke, we ain't
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going to fix it. Let's go under Kansas City,
5:59
Washington again today. There's a one nothing game for
6:02
us yesterday, which was pretty nice because all the other
6:05
unders we had to sweat. But this one we didn't have to
6:07
sweat. So that was that was a nice
6:08
little little gift. But the pitching match up for
6:11
Kansas City, Washington tonight we have Jared, Jared Lorenzen,
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RIP. Remember he was the quarterback
6:16
from Kentucky, the big guy. But Michael Lorenzen 7 and six
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3.43 ERA. He'll be opposed by DJ hers, the
6:23
lefty for Washington, who's four and eight with a 4.3 O ERA.
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What have we seen across the market here?
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Will this total open at 8:00? And it's now been bet down to 7
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1/2. So right off the bat, we've seen
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this total fall. What's notable to me is that the
6:36
public doesn't know what to do here.
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They're 5050. They kind of still want to root
6:40
for an over, but then they see yesterday all was only one
6:43
nothing game. So the tickets are 5050 right
6:46
down the middle. But 65% of money is going with
6:50
the under here. So I'm going to play the under
6:52
in this one. Under 7 1/2.
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You might be able to shop around and find an 8 if you can really
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do some some good scavenger hunting there and find the 8.
7:01
But mostly it's 7 1/2. But the one good thing about if
7:03
you want to go under 7 1/2 is it's kind of juiced under or
7:07
sorry, juiced over. So open at 8:00 it's down to 7
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1/2. But all these seven and a halfs
7:11
are like 7 1/2 under -1 O 5. ESPN bet has seven and a half
7:16
under at plus 100. So you're basically even money.
7:19
But 5050 a line shouldn't move at all.
7:21
Yet we did see this total fall 8 down to 7 1/2.
7:25
If you look at Lorenzen, he had a 1.85 ERA and five starts since
7:29
joining KC. He is coming off the injured
7:31
list to make this start and DJ hers.
7:34
On the road he hasn't been great 5.17 ERA, but at home 3.78.
7:39
We have an interleague match up here.
7:41
So lack of familiarity benefit to the pitchers because the
7:44
hitters have never really faced these guys a lot.
7:46
Doug Eddings is a really good under UMM, he's 54% to the under
7:50
in his career. It's one of the better under UPS
7:52
in baseball. So maybe a wide strike zone,
7:55
maybe a little more, you know, friendly to the pitchers.
7:57
I would say it's going to be a nice night in the nation's
8:00
capital. 70°, but the wind is blowing right to left about 5 to
8:03
10 mph. Kansas City 85 and 67 to the
8:07
under. That's 56%.
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That's the 4th best under team in baseball.
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And we do have the Nats 79 and 73 to the under.
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They're about 50 to 53%. So 2 good under teams.
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The total has fallen. Again, We're getting a decent
8:21
juice price here. If you can find under 8, it's
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going to be under 8 - 120 - 125. I'm I'll pay the under 8 if you
8:28
can find it. If not, you can go under 7 1/2
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here at a nice like even money minus one O 5 + 100.
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But give me KC Washington under 8 or 7 1/2.
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Keep on cruising New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves.
8:41
I'm going to hate watch this game because you know why?
8:44
Because I'm a Red Sox fan and Chris Sale got his money and
8:47
then got injured and was terrible.
8:49
Now I could have just guessed this.
8:51
He goes to Atlanta is going to win the Cy Young.
8:54
So actually I'm rooting for him tonight because I'm on the
8:56
under, Atlanta and the Mets. But wouldn't you know it, he
8:59
sucked for the Red Sox and turned around and now is great
9:01
again. So as a Red Sox fan, that is
9:03
annoying. Anyway, big match up here,
9:05
Atlanta and the New York Mets because there's playoff
9:08
implications here. If you currently, if you look at
9:10
the current standings, let me just dial them up for you.
9:13
Wild card, you have the Mets holding on to the second spot.
9:16
The Diamondbacks are holding on to the third spot and final
9:20
spot, but the Braves are only 1/2 game back.
9:22
So the Braves got to win this game.
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And if you look at the current money line, their big favorite
9:25
here, they're upwards of -175 -, 180.
9:29
But I'm going to go with the under in this one.
9:32
Mention Chris Sale, 18 and three 2.38 ERA.
9:35
He'll be opposed by David Peterson, who is 9 and 3
9:39
three-point O 8 ERA. But the one thing I like about
9:41
this under is it's got a really good bet split only only a
9:46
little more than 52% of bets on the under, but 89% of money,
9:51
money, money, money is on the under.
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So a huge low bets, higher dollars bets split to the under.
9:56
Also good juice to the under. This total opened 7 1/2 -, 110
10:00
-, 115. Now it's 7 1/2 under -115 -,
10:04
120. So really showing a lot of
10:07
liability. The odds makers are making you
10:08
pay a higher price to go under. Tells me that's the sharp bet
10:11
here. Now, Chris Sale, 1.13 ERA in
10:15
September. He's been great in his four
10:17
starts. He's also been really good at
10:18
night 1.72 ERA at night versus 3.61 in the day and Peterson
10:24
3.35 ERA at home. But he's also been really good
10:27
on the road 2.88 ERA the Braves, by the way, 91 and 59 to the
10:32
under 61%. That's the number one under team
10:36
in baseball this year. So they've cash quite a few
10:38
unders. Let's hope they can cash another
10:40
one tonight and also and contrarian unders for winning
10:43
teams. It's a system I mentioned
10:45
yesterday, but it was a system I was introduced to when I first
10:48
started getting in the sports betting industry.
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I was introduced to me by my friends at sports insights, my
10:53
first job that I ever got working in betting.
10:55
But the thought process is basically when you have two good
10:57
teams, whether it's a playoff game or just two above 500 teams
11:01
facing off, you know, a lot of people will say, oh, good
11:03
offense, it'll be a, you know, seven to six game.
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Historically, what you've seen is when good teams face off,
11:09
they typically play a lot of these tight lower scoring games.
11:11
Hopefully that'll come true here for tonight.
11:13
But either way, shop around for the best juice price.
11:16
I am on Mets, Braves under 7 1/2 at -115 another gross 1 Angels
11:23
and the White Sox. I'm going under in this one,
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guys. I'm bury in the lead again
11:28
because I got a lot of undas today as we're going to
11:30
hopefully continue to maximize our edge.
11:32
Knock on wood. 7:40 PM Angels, White Sox, two of the worst
11:36
teams in baseball, but I'm hoping for another low scoring
11:39
game because we did see a low scoring game last night.
11:42
I was three to two. The White Sox won that one.
11:45
Before tonight, we have Jose Suarez going for the Angels.
11:50
He is one and two, six point O, 8 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Davis Martin O and five, 4.27 ERA.
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So their Eras don't look great, but I'm going to trust the
11:59
betting market here. This total opened as high as 8
12:02
1/2 or 8. It's down to 7 1/2.
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So there's been nothing but sharp under money showing up for
12:08
this one. Only 54% of bets, but 80% of
12:11
dollars are on the under. So a lot of under money here
12:14
coming in only half the tickets. But again, eight out of $10
12:18
tells us the bigger, sharper wagers are going under.
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Now Suarez has a six point O 8 ERA.
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He actually has an ERA of 0 in his last 12 innings pitched, his
12:27
last three starts. Hopefully that continues.
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Windy City of course Chicago. The wind is blowing in about 5
12:33
to 7 mph from center field so I will take that hopefully knock
12:36
knock down a first row home run into a warning track, fly ball,
12:40
run scored. These are two of the lowest
12:41
scoring teams in baseball. White Sox are the dead last
12:45
lowest scoring team. 3 point O seven runs per game.
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Angels are 27th, 3.96 runs per game and the White Sox are the
12:53
5th best under team in baseball. 82 and 6755% Angels 79 and 73 to
13:00
the under. They're also profitable to the
13:01
under, so tons of smart money is showing up here on the under.
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Guys, let's see if we can get another low scoring game between
13:07
two bad offenses. I am on Angels White Sox under 7
13:11
1/2. Now let's go over to the final
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game that I thought I'll be sweating.
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Texas, Oakland. Give me under 7 1/2 Texas
13:18
Oakland pitching match up tonight late game, 9:40 Eastern
13:22
Time. Cody Bradford is going for
13:24
Texas. Couple lefties here.
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He's six and three 3.59 ERA. He'll be opposed by Brady Basso
13:31
or Basso. He's one and O 2.33 ERA.
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What have you seen across the market here?
13:36
Well, nothing but sharp under money.
13:38
This total opened at 7 1/2 and it was 7 and half under -110 -,
13:43
115. Now every book is really juicing
13:47
up the under 7F under -115 -, 120.
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I see a -, 125 out there. So it kind of, you know, is a
13:55
little bit peculiar, like, hey, you have, you know, decent
13:57
offenses even though they're actually not as good as you
14:00
think. But you think Oakland, all their
14:02
young guys in Texas can put up some runs here. 7 1/2 feels like
14:06
a low total, but wise guys love the under.
14:08
The under is only getting 37% of bets, but 57% of dollars.
14:13
So a great low bets, higher dollars bet split with that
14:17
juice leaning under. Now we have 2 lefties going here
14:20
and we have two of the worst teams against lefties.
14:22
Offensively, Oakland's hitting 233 against southpaws, that's
14:26
23rd. Texas hitting 235, that's 21st.
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And if you dig into these pitchers, Brady Bosso, he's made
14:34
three September starts. He has an ERA of 1.69.
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And if you look at Cody Bradford, day night splits and
14:40
the day has been terrible. 8.38 ERA at night 2.86 and also both
14:46
these teams are obviously eliminated.
14:48
But this game's going to be played at the Oakland Coliseum,
14:50
which won't be lasting too, too much longer.
14:53
Where are they going to play Sacramento or I can't even keep
14:55
track where they're going to play before they go to Vegas.
14:58
But Oakland Coliseum has the biggest foul territory in
15:01
baseball. So when we get a couple cheap
15:03
outs here that are, you know, caught in foul territory versus
15:07
any other stadium like Fenway, which would be, you know, in the
15:09
stands. So I'm going Texas Oakland under
15:12
7 1/2 and I did find a -, 115, but again, some shops are as
15:17
high as -125 S for our 5 pack of unders.
15:23
Can we get three or more Cubs under 8?
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If you can find under 8 1/2 - 125 at ESPN, bet even better.
15:31
Mets in Atlanta under 7 1/2, Texas, Oakland under 7 1/2,
15:35
White Sox, Angels under 7 1/2 and Kansas City, Washington
15:39
under 7 1/2. Now over to the WNBA.
15:44
You guys might think I'm crazy because WNBA is a frustrating
15:47
sport and maybe not your favorite sport to bet.
15:50
But if I keep getting good system matches and good rhythm
15:53
edges, I'm going to keep firing here.
15:55
The one difference now is that we're in the postseason, if you
15:57
haven't been paying attention. So I'm going to focus on a 930
16:01
game tonight. It's nationally televised ESPN.
16:04
If you want to sweat it, it's the Phoenix Mercury and the
16:07
Minnesota Lynx. Now this is game two of the
16:09
first round series. We saw Minnesota win the opener
16:13
one O 2 to 95 S incredibly high scoring game Hinton That's going
16:17
to be where I'm leaning today. But for tonight's matchup, we
16:21
have a pretty big spread for Minnesota.
16:23
They're favored by 8 1/2 now, 9 or even 9 1/2.
16:27
So line has been going to the links, but I'm going to focus on
16:30
the total here and I'm going to go over.
16:32
We had a lot of points in game one and I'm not going to play
16:34
the over tonight just because hey, they scored a lot in game
16:37
one. Let's go over again, but because
16:39
I have a good rhythm edge that I'm going to put some faith in
16:41
here. So the Mercury and Lynx playoff
16:44
over tonight. It opened at 160 1/2.
16:47
At one point it got as high as 161 1/2.
16:50
I think even touched 162. Now it's back down to 160 1/2
16:55
and it's juiced up like it may go to 161.
16:58
I see a couple books even at 161.
17:00
So if you're playing this over with me, make sure you shop
17:03
around and find that over 160 1/2.
17:05
That way if it lands, 161 will win instead of push.
17:09
But aside from this total either staying the same or going up.
17:13
And you know, if you look at the open versus current, you say,
17:15
oh, open 160 1/2, still 160 1/2 hasn't moved at all, which is
17:19
true, open to current, but it's not true in terms of all the
17:22
moves in between. All the moves in between have
17:24
been upward. It's not like they've been
17:26
downward backed up. They've been up back to down.
17:28
So it tells me all liability here is on the over.
17:32
Now if we look at the bet splits here, decent bet split, 66% of
17:37
bets, but 74% of money is going with the over.
17:40
So a little bit low bets, higher dollars bet split.
17:43
Now the Mercury, they are bad in terms of defense, which is kind
17:47
of surprising because you have Brittany Griner, who's huge, you
17:50
would think should be a big defensive presence.
17:52
Apparently not, but they're giving up 88 points per game
17:55
their last 10 games. You also have the Lynx, one of
17:58
the better offensive clubs, 3 point shooting and field goal
18:01
percentage. But if we go off just the
18:04
market, you know, we have a bet split low bets higher dollars
18:06
over we have a stay the same or risen in terms of the line move.
18:11
But here's what is what really sold me for this total.
18:14
I pop open my Rhythm app, which you better go download and take
18:17
advantage of a 7A free trial by clicking the custom link in the
18:21
bio description of each podcast that we do for all systems.
18:24
Go powered by Rhythm I might add, but I pop open my rhythm
18:28
predictions for the WNBA. Right now I'm on NFL so I got to
18:32
switch over to WNBA. But I look toward this total and
18:37
I got 2 good models on the over. So my first model is my Rhythm
18:41
AI model and they're predicting 164.5.
18:46
Then I pop open my Josh model, which is the one that I created
18:49
based on certain factors that I think are important like pace
18:53
and three-point shooting and field goal percentage.
18:57
And I look at my model and it has 165.4, so 164.5165 point 4.
19:03
Either way, both of my models are telling me to go over.
19:06
And then I look at the community model, which pulls all of the
19:09
different users who have rhythm and created a model for this
19:12
total. And it matches for this game,
19:15
81.2% are on the over. So basically of all the smart
19:20
people who have a rhythm app, they're all going over as well.
19:23
So that gives me a little confidence that I'm on the sharp
19:25
side with the wise guys or wise gals.
19:27
So you add it all up here guys, it's a playoff game.
19:30
I'm going to root for points. We got a little bit of a tick
19:33
up, came back down, but it's only shown liability over low
19:36
bets, higher dollars, bet split, bad defense in terms of the
19:39
mercury and some good rhythm edges about five points off the
19:42
current number. So I'm going to take a shot on
19:44
this over. I'm going over 160 1/2.
19:47
I got it at -110 again, some shops are -120 or -115 and some
19:53
shops are even up to 161. So try to find that 160 1/2.
19:56
That's what I'm playing. Rooting for some points, Mercury
19:59
and links tonight. Now over to the NFL because we
20:03
have NFL returning next or tomorrow obviously for Dallas
20:07
and the Giants, but I'm looking at some games here for this
20:11
weekend that really caught my eye.
20:13
So the first one I wanted to mention is the Saints and the
20:15
Falcons. Now this one is notable because
20:17
we open this game, the Falcons a very, very short one point
20:23
favorite and the public is saying, Falcons, I saw you in
20:26
prime time. You look bad.
20:28
Saints probably gave it away against the Eagles which annoyed
20:31
me because I was on Saints money line but the public is saying
20:34
you know the wrong team is favored.
20:36
Currently you're getting 65% of spread bets going New Orleans
20:41
but the lines move toward Atlanta.
20:42
Atlanta went from -1 up to -1 1/2 and I'm looking at my live
20:46
odds page right now and I just saw him pop to -2 1/2.
20:50
So that tells me we got further movement on Atlanta.
20:52
Now Atlanta is only getting 35% of spread bets, but nearly 50%
20:57
of spread dollars. So really good low bets, higher
20:59
dollars, sharp contrarian bet split.
21:01
John Hussey, who's going to be the lead ref.
21:03
He's a really good home ref 60% historically to the home team.
21:07
So I'm looking at a money line play here for Atlanta.
21:10
In terms of the money line, you can get him as low as it just
21:13
ticked up. Now it's like -135 -, 140.
21:16
But that is just one that jumped out to me, a fade.
21:18
The trendy dog Publix on New Orleans line keeps going to
21:21
Atlanta. Give me Atlanta, this one is
21:23
going to shock you. Minnesota.
21:25
Green Bay. So Minnesota, the Cinderella
21:28
story, had one of the lowest win totals and it was 6 1/2.
21:31
And now they're three and O and Sam Darnold is Joe Montana.
21:35
But Minnesota's three and O looking great.
21:38
Got to admit, had a great win for US against the Texans last
21:40
week. Packers 2 and one.
21:43
But here's the thing, this game opened actually Minnesota as a
21:46
favorite. Like Minnesota -2 1/2 on the
21:49
road, guys. We have flipped to Green Bay -2
21:53
1/2. And why is that notable?
21:54
Not only a dog to fave line move in favor of Green Bay, but a
21:57
massive fade. The trendy dog reverse line
22:00
move. The Packers are only getting 33%
22:03
of spread bets. The public is all over
22:04
Minnesota. 67% are going Minnesota.
22:08
Yet the lines going to Green Bay.
22:10
Now maybe that's Jordan Love playing.
22:13
Probably that's a part of it. I would assume he practiced and
22:15
was close to playing against the Titans.
22:17
Ended up not playing. Malik Willis played well anyway
22:20
and they got the win, so I like that for the over 9 1/2 win
22:23
total. But the bet split is crazy on
22:25
Green Bay. Green Bay is only getting 33% of
22:28
spread bets, but 73% of spread dollars and it looks like it may
22:32
have been even be going to three.
22:34
So similar to that contrarian favorite reverse line move fade
22:39
the trendy dog play for Atlanta, even bigger for Green Bay here.
22:42
So I'm looking at Green Bay on the money line.
22:44
I like to money line short favorites.
22:46
I don't want to mess around laying a 2 1/2 and have them win
22:48
by one or two and I lose. I'm looking at Green Bay around
22:51
-135 on the money line now. Hopefully some dogs that can
22:55
bark for us. Bengals at the Carolina Panthers
22:59
this game open. Bengals as high as a 7 point Rd.
23:02
favorite and the public's not quitting.
23:04
The Bengals, even though they're own 3 and they're laying a
23:08
relatively big number here, they're still playing the
23:11
Bengals. Bengals are currently getting
23:13
across the market 66% of spread bets, but they open -7 they're
23:18
down to four and a half. Some shops even going down to
23:21
four. So continued movement in favor
23:24
of Carolina. Carolina, only 34% of bets hit
23:27
the lines going to Carolina. Obviously, no more Bryce Young.
23:31
This is Andy Dalton revenge game against Cincinnati.
23:34
Here's an angle for you guys. Dogs that are getting 4 1/2
23:36
points or more. They're 15 and 6 against the
23:39
spread so far this year, 71% Carolina has a rest advantage
23:43
since he's on a short week having played Monday night.
23:46
Andy Dalton 57% against the spread in his career as a dog.
23:50
If you want to Wong tease Carolina, 4 1/2 to 10 1/2,
23:54
you're going through a couple key numbers.
23:55
But I jumped on the 4 1/2 with Carolina because I'm I'm seeing
23:59
the juice like it may get down to four and I even see two shops
24:01
that are down to four. So if you can still get Carolina
24:04
in the hook, to me, that's a play you make right now hoping
24:07
that you're going to beat the closing line.
24:08
So like with Atlanta and Green Bay, I know I'm going to money
24:11
line them, you know, so doesn't make a huge difference and maybe
24:15
there's some buyback, but when it comes to the points, I want
24:19
to get that hook that way if Carolina loses by 4I cover.
24:22
So I actually already played Carolina plus 4 1/2 and then
24:26
another one for you that I played today, commanders,
24:29
commanders and the Cardinals. This game opened with Arizona
24:34
listed as high as a four and a half point home favorite.
24:36
And the total is it the public doesn't know where to go to good
24:39
young teams, you know, offensive minded, high flashy, you know,
24:43
scoring teams, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels 2 good Q BS.
24:48
Who are you know, again again, kind of the new mobile
24:50
quarterbacks of the league. So it's right down the middle
24:53
5050. But what do we always talk about
24:55
5050 a line shouldn't move at all. 5050 line moves are
24:58
meaningful because even though the public doesn't know what to
25:01
do, if you see 5050 in the line moves tells you smart money has
25:05
made a decision. So smart money looks to be on
25:07
Washington here. This game opened coming Arizona
25:11
-4 1/2. It's down to 3 1/2.
25:13
And the reason that I'm taking Washington plus 3 1/2 today is
25:17
because all these three and a halfs are juiced up toward
25:19
Washington plus 3 1/2 -, 115 -, 120 looking like it's going to
25:23
get down to three. So I know it's early in the
25:25
week, but like getting Carolina with the hook, getting
25:28
Washington with the hook, these are the plays that I make early
25:31
in the week only because they fit my model and I feel like I'm
25:34
getting the best of the number. In addition, road dogs been good
25:38
this year, 59% against the spread.
25:40
Washington is a dog who can score system match.
25:43
So 27 points a game, 5th best in the NFL.
25:47
Keep pace. Back to our cover.
25:48
And we all know Kyler Murray's been great as a dog.
25:50
As a favorite, though, he's only 10 and 15 against the spread,
25:53
and as a home favorite, he's only 6 and 11 ATS 35%.
25:58
So I'm grabbing that hook right now.
25:59
I'm going Washington plus 3 1/2 sharp 5050 line move along with
26:04
Carolina plus 4 1/2. So that about does it for
26:09
episode 127 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
26:13
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
26:15
where we wrap things up and I start by asking a favor of you.
26:18
Could you please make my day and give this podcast a five star
26:22
review? If you're listening on Spotify
26:24
or iTunes, click the five stars rate and review.
26:26
If you want to leave a nice comment, that'll be great as
26:28
well. But the five stars really go a
26:30
long way to helping us continue to build momentum, rise up the
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charts, gain more credibility, more listens.
26:36
If you want to recommend the pod to a friend or click the follow
26:39
button, that way you're alerted as soon as it drops each day.
26:42
I'd really appreciate that as well.
26:44
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting, the style of
26:47
breakdowns, nothing with our bias, nothing with our heart,
26:51
what we want to happen or think or hope will happen, but what
26:54
the betting market is telling us, looking at clues, where's
26:57
the public, where the sharps, where can we identify system
27:00
matches, bet splits, the whole shebang.
27:03
If this style of data-driven betting appeals to you and you
27:06
want to learn more about data-driven betting, I wrote a
27:09
book. Go buy that book.
27:11
Go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:14
Betting. It's my baby.
27:16
It's my sharp contrarian Bible. I put everything I knew into
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that thing and it'll teach you how to go contrarian, how to
27:21
read line movement, how to go, how to identify sharp action,
27:25
how to place a bet in person or online betting systems, bankroll
27:28
management, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:31
Betting. I might add it's great for new
27:33
betters or if you're just looking to brush up on certain
27:36
concepts or you know a friend who maybe is in a newly
27:39
legalized state that doesn't know how to bet but wants to
27:42
start. It'll give you a good foundation
27:44
of how to attack the market by tracking the market.
27:47
So pick one up. I would make my day and once I
27:50
see at the book with my book, I'll sign it for you.
27:53
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale next.
27:56
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
27:59
Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't done it
28:01
yet, go do it right now because Rhythm and Juice Reel are two of
28:04
my favorite sports betting apps. They're data-driven just like
28:07
me. They help me win.
28:08
They can help you win. Rhythm is great for their AI
28:11
backed models and predictions for both game bets as well as
28:14
player props. And Juice Reel is great for a
28:16
multitude of reasons. You can follow their AI best bet
28:19
picks each day that come out at noon with our guy Robo Jackson.
28:23
You can also look at arbitrage opportunities, Sharp Mush plays.
28:27
You can also look at shopping for the best line in terms of
28:30
futures or just regular game bets and also syncing up your
28:33
sports books to the app. That way you when you put in a
28:37
bet, it whatever book you have, it'll go right to juice real and
28:40
give you a report card. I'll give you a running
28:42
performance records. You can learn more about
28:44
yourself as a better learn your strengths and weaknesses keep
28:46
you honest. So sign up for both, but you got
28:49
to do it in a particular way. Guys.
28:50
Click that custom link located in the bio description of the
28:53
podcast. It'll say for today something
28:55
like Josh dishes out a six pack of sweats. 5 MLB bets 1WNBA NFL
29:01
week 4 sharp report. Scroll down.
29:03
After that, it'll have links to juice real and rhythm.
29:05
Click those links. You'll get right in and you can
29:07
start making some making some smarter bets.
29:11
So that about does it everybody. Another pod here in the books,
29:14
as always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
29:18
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
29:20
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
29:23
Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
29:26
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
29:28
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
29:30
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
29:33
lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
29:35
Or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
29:38
swimming pool at Circuit. When you catch a big ticket,
29:40
wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me and you're
29:43
going to show me a lot of beautiful sparkling under
29:47
tickets from last night. Dodgers under 8 1/2, Colorado
29:50
under 10 1/2, Minnesota under 8, Yankees under 8 1/2, Washington
29:54
under 7 1/2. Guys, what's better than
29:56
identifying an edge with a sound theory behind it and then having
30:00
faith playing and sticking to the data and playing that edge
30:02
and then having it come through for you?
30:04
Not much better than that, if you ask me.
30:06
So of course, as always, flash me on those winning tickets.
30:09
First one's on me, next one's on you.
30:11
We'll post it at the book. Sweat some sharp contrain plays
30:14
all night long. So have a great Wednesday night.
30:17
Everybody calm before the storm. Football's back tomorrow.
30:20
Keep an eye out for a breakdown for NFL and college football, as
30:24
well as another day of baseball. Only a few days left.
30:27
Let's see if we can get to continue to maximize our edge.
30:29
So as always, I'll leave you with this.
30:31
Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
30:34
yourself on the side of the house.
30:36
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:38
Will smart money when every time?
30:40
Of course not. There's no such thing as a
30:42
guarantee, a lock. Anything can happen in a one
30:44
off. But here's the thing, if we
30:46
consistently stay true to the model, to the blueprint against
30:50
the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
30:53
parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that long term,
30:56
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
30:57
So have a great Wednesday, everybody.
31:00
Be back at it tomorrow for episode 130 or sorry, 128 of the
31:05
All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
31:08
Good luck everybody, have a great night.