Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 7/14/2026 | Weather Shifts, Grain Sell-off, And A Record Hog Short

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 7/14/2026 | Weather Shifts, Grain Sell-off, And A Record Hog Short · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Juliet, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: We have a great show planned for you this Tuesday.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about weather.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about hogs, and we're going to talk about a little fruit stand company called Apple.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle saw some both up and down, depending on what contract you were looking at.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: But the live cattle in August were down about 50 cents at 234 and 73 cents.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were down quarter at 354.35 cents.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs down pretty heavy across the board yesterday, down 90 cents at 98.10.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, on to the weather discussion for today.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I think we're going to start to see things dry out just a little bit.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: And that seems to be what Mr.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberg thinks here at our Nezvik Trading Meteorologist station.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: He has this 120-day chart that we like to pop up.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: And as you can see, there's maybe less color on there than what we've been seeing.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: The northern plains are going to see some kind of extreme temperatures exceeding 100 degrees for the next five days.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Similar story, kind of down south in the hard red wheat belt.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to stay dry there for the next week.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, in the next 11 to 15 days, some much needed rain is going to return to that area.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: We'll make sure and keep you posted there.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Out here in the Midwest, we can use things to dry up.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Out there in the Great Plains, rain is always, always needed.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: We saw an overnight drop in the price of grains last night.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: A really big one, I should say.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: That as I'm looking at my quotes here from plus 500, the September contract in corn fell about 10.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: They're at 435 and a half.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans are down about 15.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: They're 1178.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat fell just a little bit, not quite as much.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're at 631.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Not sure what triggered that one.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure Davis will talk about that this afternoon.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: But we saw we came up so hard and jumped up so high.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: We might needed to correct to fill that gap that we saw yesterday.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the next discussion for us today are the hogs.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: We maybe don't talk about hogs quite as much on this channel, but they certainly deserve the spotlight today because the managed money's gross short position in lean hogs has reached not quite 90,000 contracts last week.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's crazy.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's the largest since 2006.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: The funds are now about 29,000 contracts net short.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's the most bearish mid-July position on record.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Tighter supplies could put pressure on the short positions that we have because we have less sows than we've ever had.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: We have a record short sal herd in the United States.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now those sows are more productive, having larger litters and heavier weights than we've ever seen.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, not too many mama pigs out there.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll be interesting to see if these short positions for these funds, what happens there as we push farther and farther into the fall, if retention rates don't pick up there, we're gonna see even less SAWs.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna have to keep up with that high level of production that we've been seeing for them.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the headline that I alluded to earlier is all about AI.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Apple sues OpenAI.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't know who OpenAI is, that's the company that controls Chat GPT.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the headline for you: Apple sues AI over alleged trade secret theft.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I don't know much about how they did it, but this was kind of the main headline.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: They say they're claiming them for unlawfully obtaining confidential information through a former employee Cheng Liu, who allegedly exploited a zero-day authentication flaw to access file sensitive files before that problem was fixed.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: We don't really know what they stole.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Apple's not really saying completely the extent of the theft.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: But it'll be interesting to see what kind of settlement comes out of this.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: As we know right now, OpenAI is kind of losing some of their market share to other AI platforms that are probably doing a better job than them.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Love AI or hate it, we kind of have to pay attention to it because those companies are growing at such a fast rate and control so much of the news headlines right now.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're in the trading side of things, man, that there's some kind of the the algorithms use AI to help them trade anymore.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: So paying attention to what's going on in that part of the industry is still important, even if maybe the future of AI is a little uncertain for most of us out here.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the economic calendar for today, some big things that came out already this morning at 5 a.m.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: The NFIB Small Business Optimism came out.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: The Conab Grain Report already came out at 7.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: The ADP weekly employment change came out here at 7.15 as I'm talking now.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the CPI will come out at 7:30 a.m.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all the slides I have for you today, but make sure and tune in this afternoon to Mr.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to have on a hog producer to go more in depth about the pork world, which I think will be great.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: We normally talk a lot of cattle and we talk a lot of corn and beans on this channel.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: So it's always interesting to bring in another aspect.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's something that is on everyone's minds where we're seeing such drastic changes in the hog market recently.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.