Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Warns Iran Amid Truce Push

Transcript

Trump Warns Iran Amid Truce Push · Balance of Power

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the
0:10
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas live weekdays at noon
0:14
Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto
0:17
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
0:20
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
0:25
Speaker 2: So we continue to follow the updates from the Middle East.
0:28
Speaker 2: As we mentioned at the top of the hour, we
0:29
Speaker 2: saw deaths of at least three more American service members
0:32
Speaker 2: and Jordan and Iraq yesterday. And Jordan, of course, the
0:36
Speaker 2: two died due to an Iranian attack on US military
0:41
Speaker 2: facilities there. In Iraq, it was a service member who
0:44
Speaker 2: was trying to disarm a down to Iranian drone. So
0:47
Speaker 2: we have more service members who have died at least
0:50
Speaker 2: seventeen now as a result of this conflict in Trump.
0:53
Speaker 2: The President, as we mentioned, is suggesting Ron will pay
0:56
Speaker 2: for that many times over, even as he signals that
1:00
Speaker 2: he still wants to pursue the ambition here, which is
1:04
Speaker 2: a non nuclear Iran This is how the President framed
1:06
Speaker 2: things yesterday.
1:08
Speaker 3: We hit him very hard again tonight. This is a
1:10
Speaker 3: far bigger job that we're doing.
1:12
Speaker 4: We were doing a little job stopping them from having
1:16
Speaker 4: a certain capability.
1:17
Speaker 3: Now we're just ending it, so it's really not the
1:19
Speaker 3: same thing. What we're doing now.
1:21
Speaker 4: Is we're ending any chance where they can have a
1:24
Speaker 4: nuclear This over.
1:27
Speaker 5: But of course they continue to fire ballistic missiles, conventional weaponry,
1:33
Speaker 5: and we also know that the houthy rebels, which of
1:36
Speaker 5: course take direction from Iran, are now threatening a blockade
1:40
Speaker 5: of Saudi Arabia.
1:41
Speaker 3: That's why we've seen crude oil tip higher.
1:43
Speaker 5: We were actually lower a short time ago, and futures
1:46
Speaker 5: are pointing to higher prices, with gas not just gasoline,
1:49
Speaker 5: but diesel as well pointing higher. We want to spend
1:52
Speaker 5: some time with Tyler Kendall getting the latest on all
1:55
Speaker 5: of the headlines that have been moving from Iran, and
1:57
Speaker 5: our political panel is standing by as well with their
2:00
Speaker 5: on things. Tyler, thanks for coming over to spend some
2:04
Speaker 5: time with us here. This is a tough spot. The
2:07
Speaker 5: President does not seem to be climbing down from some
2:10
Speaker 5: of the harsh rhetorics, saying that he's now directing Pete
2:12
Speaker 5: Hagseth and what he calls his Department of War to
2:16
Speaker 5: make up for the deaths of these at least three
2:19
Speaker 5: American service members, So the prospect of a ten day
2:22
Speaker 5: ceasefire seems like it might not be here yet.
2:24
Speaker 6: Right at the moment, it appears that we are pointed
2:27
Speaker 6: toward escalation, which is really what this weekend marked, serious
2:31
Speaker 6: escalation as you're both outlining the total US death toll
2:34
Speaker 6: now reaching seventeen service members since the conflicts started back
2:38
Speaker 6: in February, and we're seeing it escalate on both sides.
2:43
Speaker 6: As you mentioned, Joe, we now have this reporting that
2:48
Speaker 6: the Iranian backed militia group, the Hoho Thies, are looking
2:51
Speaker 6: towards a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. We can't only
2:55
Speaker 6: look at that through the US Iran War lens. We
2:58
Speaker 6: do know that this is also part of a sea
3:00
Speaker 6: fire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis from twenty to
3:03
Speaker 6: twenty two breaking down. But obviously Iran has been backing
3:07
Speaker 6: the Houthis. They told them last week to be prepared
3:09
Speaker 6: if the US hits energy infrastructure, that they should be
3:12
Speaker 6: ready to totally close down transits when it comes to
3:16
Speaker 6: that other oil route through the Red Sea. So it
3:19
Speaker 6: feels like both sides are now ratcheting up the pressure.
3:22
Speaker 6: Even as we got indications and signals from both sides
3:25
Speaker 6: that maybe they would be open toward diplomacy. Secretary of
3:28
Speaker 6: State Mark Rubio saying that the US got strong indications
3:32
Speaker 6: from Iran, but then the statement from Iranian Formed ministry
3:36
Speaker 6: earlier today saying, on one hand, there was diplomatic activity
3:41
Speaker 6: in the diplomatic apparatus was the word they used, but
3:43
Speaker 6: also that they have sovereignty over the straight of removes
3:46
Speaker 6: and that's not going to go anywhere, which.
3:48
Speaker 2: Of course is a major problem for the United States.
3:50
Speaker 2: But it's also a problem politically for the president that
3:53
Speaker 2: gasoline prices are on the March higher once again, north
3:55
Speaker 2: of four dollars a gallon on average across the country.
3:58
Speaker 2: Are there any levers that the president can pull short
4:01
Speaker 2: of saying something positive on true social to try and
4:04
Speaker 2: talk the markets down here? Do we have more wiggle
4:07
Speaker 2: room in the spr Tyler we.
4:08
Speaker 6: Were talking about this last hour on balance of power.
4:11
Speaker 6: There are a few different levers that we know the
4:13
Speaker 6: administration has already been thinking about, including our Bloomberg News
4:17
Speaker 6: reporting from last week that we could see an extension
4:19
Speaker 6: of that Jones Act shipping waiver, which essentially tries to
4:22
Speaker 6: make it cheaper and easier to move crude oil around
4:25
Speaker 6: this country. President Trump has previously threatened investigations into pig
4:28
Speaker 6: oil companies. Gas Lowering gas prices quickly gets really tricky
4:33
Speaker 6: because we know that it takes so much time to
4:35
Speaker 6: move the refined product through the supply chain. And we
4:39
Speaker 6: have to keep in mind that a lot of gas
4:41
Speaker 6: stations are independent and they have to factor in their
4:45
Speaker 6: own margins when they buy during a supply shock, and
4:47
Speaker 6: it may be harder to bring those prices down that
4:50
Speaker 6: we pay at the pump more quickly. But four dollars
4:54
Speaker 6: a gallon is really that political threshold that we talk
4:56
Speaker 6: about a lot. So we'll see what the administration says
4:58
Speaker 6: from here.
5:00
Speaker 5: Pretty interesting to consider. We're just hearing, by the way,
5:03
Speaker 5: from White House Press Secretary, the President will attend the
5:05
Speaker 5: dignified Transfer tomorrow evening at Dover Air Force Base, and
5:11
Speaker 5: we are still waiting for confirmation on what could be
5:15
Speaker 5: a fourth American death. As the President says, this is
5:21
Speaker 5: a very sad situation, but also one that will be avenged. Tyler,
5:26
Speaker 5: With all of this in mind, what is the President
5:29
Speaker 5: have going on today? Is he doing anything public facing?
5:32
Speaker 5: I see a lot of closed events on his schedule
5:36
Speaker 5: after the primetime address to the nation last week. You'd
5:39
Speaker 5: think that we might hear from.
5:40
Speaker 6: Him right Well, we'll have to see if any of
5:42
Speaker 6: these events open up, but I don't believe anything is
5:45
Speaker 6: public right now on the schedule, at least at this point.
5:48
Speaker 6: He has been posting entrue social as you mentioned this
5:50
Speaker 6: new threat that we got within the last hour, also
5:53
Speaker 6: commenting on other priorities, including when it comes to the
5:57
Speaker 6: potential reconciliation baggage that may or may not be getting
6:00
Speaker 6: through the House this week. But of course that includes
6:03
Speaker 6: in some regard funding for the Pentagon related to the
6:06
Speaker 6: conflict in Iran. We have seen now nine consecutive days
6:10
Speaker 6: of strikes and Sentcom has been giving us updates. I
6:13
Speaker 6: believe the update today was seven ships so far have
6:16
Speaker 6: been turned around and redirected amid the naval blockade in
6:21
Speaker 6: the straight up her moves. Feels like our eyes have
6:23
Speaker 6: been more trained toward the Pentagon's updates at this point
6:26
Speaker 6: than President Trump's.
6:27
Speaker 2: Well, and of course we'll hear from the Pentagon tomorrow
6:30
Speaker 2: as the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs
6:33
Speaker 2: a Staff Chair Dan Kine will be testifying before the
6:35
Speaker 2: Senate Appropriations Committee as they ask for more money from Congress.
6:39
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, thank you so much.
6:42
Speaker 2: And just to reiterate the news that Joe mentioned a
6:45
Speaker 2: moment ago, the White House Press Secretary Caroline Lovitt did
6:47
Speaker 2: confirm that the President will be attending the dignified transfer
6:50
Speaker 2: of these three dead American service members tomorrow at Dover
6:53
Speaker 2: Air Force Base. And it's on that note we turn
6:55
Speaker 2: now to our political panel. Rick Davis and Janie shan
6:58
Speaker 2: Ze no Bloomberg politics contribute are with us. Rick of course,
7:01
Speaker 2: republican strategist in Stone Court, capital partner Genie, and democratic
7:04
Speaker 2: analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard County School's Ash Center.
7:08
Speaker 3: Rick.
7:09
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, this is not the first dignified transfer that the
7:12
Speaker 2: President has had to attend since Operation Epic Fury began.
7:16
Speaker 2: And I wonder if you see his options here as
7:18
Speaker 2: either one in which he has to back down or
7:20
Speaker 2: one where he has to inherently escalate and therefore risk
7:24
Speaker 2: more American service members lives.
7:27
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, there's always an option on the table just
7:29
Speaker 4: to walk away. The President has even mentioned that through
7:32
Speaker 4: the course of this five and a half month conflict,
7:35
Speaker 4: but nobody really takes that seriously. The reality here is
7:40
Speaker 4: the rest of these options are very limited for him,
7:42
Speaker 4: and that's to do what he's doing, which continued to
7:46
Speaker 4: escalate in order to de escalate at some point in time,
7:49
Speaker 4: and of course that goes up and down every day,
7:52
Speaker 4: or to really maximize pressure, which means probably putting boots
7:56
Speaker 4: on the ground, which is another horrible option for the president,
8:00
Speaker 4: but one that has to be considered and has been.
8:03
Speaker 4: And the reality though is expect more dignified transfers when
8:07
Speaker 4: you start putting troops in harm's way on the ground
8:10
Speaker 4: in Iran. So it's a difficult situation, and I think
8:15
Speaker 4: the Iranians are taking full advantage of that. They know
8:18
Speaker 4: that by putting pressure on Donald Trump's base, by having
8:21
Speaker 4: higher gas prices, by putting people in harms way, by
8:25
Speaker 4: killing US service members, by harassing our allies in the region,
8:29
Speaker 4: that all of that is a weight that they think
8:31
Speaker 4: will crush Trump's resolve and get a deal that is
8:35
Speaker 4: advantage to them. And I think that's the biggest fear
8:38
Speaker 4: everyone in the region has, is we're just not playing
8:41
Speaker 4: in Donald Trump's verse with too many good cards in
8:45
Speaker 4: this deck right now.
8:47
Speaker 5: Well, the mediators are raising their hands Genie. According to Iran,
8:52
Speaker 5: with a ten day cease fire apparently on the table
8:57
Speaker 5: here a proposal. Realizing that the MoU didn't last very
9:03
Speaker 5: long here, but Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, was
9:07
Speaker 5: also speaking in terms of the potential for diplomacy following
9:11
Speaker 5: a very violent weekend.
9:12
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.
9:14
Speaker 7: The only reason why the US is conducting strikes is
9:16
Speaker 7: against assets of Iran that are being used to attack
9:20
Speaker 7: global commercial shipping, the Straits of Hormones or international waterway,
9:24
Speaker 7: and they continue to launch against ships in that international waterway.
9:29
Speaker 7: Other countries should join us in this effort.
9:32
Speaker 5: So Cutter and Pakistan, who are the main intermediaries here,
9:37
Speaker 5: see your return to US Iran positions pre July nine
9:40
Speaker 5: as a first step. According to the official Iranian Students
9:45
Speaker 5: news agency, Genie, fighting over control of the strait began
9:49
Speaker 5: that day. Is there any way to turn the clock
9:51
Speaker 5: back at this point?
9:54
Speaker 8: You can't turn it back. Hopefully the ten day ceasefire
9:58
Speaker 8: is something that can be implement although the concern there is,
10:02
Speaker 8: of course, you give the Iranians time to build some
10:07
Speaker 8: of their weaponry and that's what we've seen when we've
10:10
Speaker 8: had pauses in the past. And this is something that
10:15
Speaker 8: the President when he was speaking last night, he continues
10:19
Speaker 8: to say that Iran is badly damaged. They've lost everything militarily.
10:24
Speaker 8: He says it over and over again. And yet, if
10:27
Speaker 8: that's the case, how does Iran still have the capacity
10:31
Speaker 8: to fight the greatest military in the world. How can
10:34
Speaker 8: they still be lashing out at our both allies? How
10:37
Speaker 8: can they still be killing service members, two of whom
10:40
Speaker 8: were identified as a young twenty five year old man
10:43
Speaker 8: from Hawaii and a nineteen year old service member from
10:48
Speaker 8: Texas and the other one I didn't see the identification
10:51
Speaker 8: on that, And potentially, of course, this is the big
10:54
Speaker 8: question though everybody is asking. When public opinion polls the
10:58
Speaker 8: Washington Post last week, sixty nine percent of Americans say
11:02
Speaker 8: this war is being badly managed by the president. Badly handled.
11:07
Speaker 8: Why does he continue to say that their abilities have
11:10
Speaker 8: been decimated if in fact they keep hitting us to
11:14
Speaker 8: the point where this thing is escalated and we're losing
11:17
Speaker 8: service members. The messaging on this has been problematic from
11:21
Speaker 8: the start, and this is where he is losing the
11:24
Speaker 8: American public In addition to the increasing price of gas
11:27
Speaker 8: and oil and everything else.
11:31
Speaker 2: I just want to mention Rick and Genie some breaking
11:33
Speaker 2: news that's just crossing the Bloomberg terminal. We of course
11:36
Speaker 2: have a new Prime Minister in the UK and Andy
11:38
Speaker 2: Burnham and he's starting to assemble his cabinet. After the
11:41
Speaker 2: resignation of the old Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves,
11:44
Speaker 2: we now have named a new UK Chancellor, John Healy
11:47
Speaker 2: has been picked by Prime Minister Burden to be the
11:50
Speaker 2: next Chancellor of the Exchequer. This of course follows Joe
11:54
Speaker 2: Burnham's remarks when he took the position talking about how
11:57
Speaker 2: he's going to be looking for more fiscal flexibility where
12:00
Speaker 2: it is available, spook to the bond market a little
12:02
Speaker 2: bit with guilt fields going higher, and it's going to
12:04
Speaker 2: be a question of to what extent John Healy is
12:06
Speaker 2: looking to execute that kind of flexibility, what kind of
12:09
Speaker 2: decisions he would like to make as he is going
12:11
Speaker 2: to be the next Chancellor of the ex Checker.
12:13
Speaker 3: In the UK. Yeah, pretty interesting development here.
12:16
Speaker 5: Having spent time in a number of different positions after
12:20
Speaker 5: Kier Starmer's election, was appointed Shadow Defense Secretary.
12:23
Speaker 3: He's kept very strong.
12:25
Speaker 5: Relations with leaders here in the US, including folks from
12:29
Speaker 5: both the Trump and Biden administrations, and is said to
12:31
Speaker 5: be pretty close with Pete Hegseth. So this is an
12:34
Speaker 5: interesting development and one that will be followed up by
12:37
Speaker 5: more as he tries to build the cabinet here.
12:40
Speaker 4: Yep.
12:40
Speaker 2: And we'll have more on this throughout the day for
12:42
Speaker 2: you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. But Joe, you
12:44
Speaker 2: mentioned Pete Hegseth, and that's what I wanted to ask
12:46
Speaker 2: you about. Rick Is, the Defense Secretary, will be testifying
12:49
Speaker 2: in the Senate tomorrow before the Appropriations Committee as he
12:52
Speaker 2: tries to make the case for the supplemental funding the
12:54
Speaker 2: Pentagon has request and of course a one and a
12:56
Speaker 2: half trillion dollar defense budget. How much more difficult is
13:00
Speaker 2: his job tomorrow knowing we have more service members who
13:03
Speaker 2: have just died in the Middle East.
13:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, it'll certainly make it a more somber occasion in
13:07
Speaker 4: the Senate, and it'll be a difficult task to convince
13:12
Speaker 4: the senators that the money is being well spent in.
13:16
Speaker 3: The sense that we're not winning.
13:18
Speaker 4: And you know, there's nothing like a politician sitting there
13:21
Speaker 4: listening to a defense secretary and the first thing they
13:23
Speaker 4: want to know is are we winning. It's going to
13:26
Speaker 4: be hard to answer that question with any credibility at
13:28
Speaker 4: this stage. And in the process, we're exhausting quite a
13:32
Speaker 4: bit of equipment and man time that is not going
13:35
Speaker 4: to be easily replaceable. So I expect it's going to
13:38
Speaker 4: be a difficult time with Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chief
13:43
Speaker 4: Chairman Cain and and I think it'll add to the
13:47
Speaker 4: confusion that already exists between a massive budget request, as
13:51
Speaker 4: you point out, Kaylee, for one point five trillion dollars
13:54
Speaker 4: for the Defense Department and a generous amount of money
13:59
Speaker 4: in the reconciliation three point zero.
14:03
Speaker 3: To support the war.
14:05
Speaker 4: There's a lot of money flying around and nobody's really
14:08
Speaker 4: got their hands on it.
14:09
Speaker 5: There's a lot of money flying around, and I wonder, Genie,
14:12
Speaker 5: what will be Democrats posture tomorrow. I think it's fairly predictable.
14:18
Speaker 5: But you know that Pete Hegseth is showing up with
14:20
Speaker 5: his own OPO research and actually enjoys the fight with
14:25
Speaker 5: lawmakers who are criticizing him. Does that change the way
14:28
Speaker 5: Democrats manage their time.
14:32
Speaker 8: I don't think so, And it is just reprehensible because
14:36
Speaker 8: we are talking about servicemen and women. We are talking
14:39
Speaker 8: about a military engagement and a war of choice that
14:43
Speaker 8: was badly managed, badly thought out, badly conceived from the start,
14:48
Speaker 8: And he's going to show up and I'm sure you're
14:49
Speaker 8: right with a log of opera research he could try
14:52
Speaker 8: to use against any member of Congress. That is reprehensible.
14:57
Speaker 8: We are not in a good position visa the on
15:00
Speaker 8: what he should be talking about is what we can
15:03
Speaker 8: do to turn this thing around. What is the strategy
15:06
Speaker 8: this administration is going to utilize to do that? And
15:10
Speaker 8: throwing one point five trillion dollars at it is not
15:13
Speaker 8: the answer. And so I think we're going to hear
15:15
Speaker 8: Democrats press him on what this is needed for and
15:19
Speaker 8: what is the strategy. Not to mention the fact that
15:22
Speaker 8: they have not come to Congress to vote on the war,
15:25
Speaker 8: and that is something that they have experienced as a
15:29
Speaker 8: real I think lost a moment to have a conversation
15:32
Speaker 8: with the people in the United States about what we're
15:35
Speaker 8: even doing there.
15:37
Speaker 5: Great conversation with our channel today Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie
15:40
Speaker 5: Shanzano and Rick Davis, thank you both so much for
15:44
Speaker 5: the insights, and we'll let you know as more news
15:46
Speaker 5: develops with the war.
15:47
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:50
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
15:54
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
15:58
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and on Apple Cockway and
16:02
Speaker 1: Android Otto with the Blue Burg Business app. You can
16:04
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
16:08
Speaker 1: York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
16:13
Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington. This
16:16
Speaker 2: is Balance of Power, where of course we followed the
16:18
Speaker 2: balance of power here in the US, but around the
16:20
Speaker 2: world as well, and the balance of power is changing
16:22
Speaker 2: in the UK, or at least those in power are changing.
16:25
Speaker 2: It's still the same Labor Party at the top of
16:27
Speaker 2: the UK government, but now a new Prime Minister and
16:29
Speaker 2: Andy Burnham, a new Chancellor of the Exchequer in John Healy,
16:32
Speaker 2: which was announced earlier this hour, and now a new
16:34
Speaker 2: Foreign Secretary has just been named Ed miliband Joe will
16:38
Speaker 2: be serving in that role in this new cabinet, and
16:42
Speaker 2: of course he will be charged with liaising with the
16:44
Speaker 2: likes of Marco Rubio. One would imagine but a European
16:47
Speaker 2: governments as well as we just had headlines crossing that.
16:49
Speaker 2: The new Prime Minister Andy Burnham also has spoken with
16:53
Speaker 2: the EU commissioned President Ursula vonder lyon this afternoon and
16:56
Speaker 2: has invited the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky to the UK
17:01
Speaker 2: at the earliest opportunity.
17:02
Speaker 5: Spoke with President Trump today as well, invited him to Manchester.
17:05
Speaker 5: We'll see if that happens, and if so, which jet
17:08
Speaker 5: the President's going to be taking as the gifted seven
17:11
Speaker 5: forty seven for Cutter goes in for enhancements as he
17:15
Speaker 5: steps down maxed out, and we'll see if they can
17:17
Speaker 5: get that done in the better part of a month
17:19
Speaker 5: with more air defenses to be added to the new jet.
17:23
Speaker 5: We've got our eyes on Capitol Hill here at home,
17:26
Speaker 5: of course, Kaylee, with only four legislative days until the
17:29
Speaker 5: August recess and a boltload of work to do, beginning
17:33
Speaker 5: with Reconciliation three point zero. And that's where we start
17:36
Speaker 5: our conversation with Megan Scully before we hear from Congressman
17:39
Speaker 5: Mike Flood.
17:40
Speaker 3: He's going to be in our studio in just a moment.
17:42
Speaker 5: Meghan leads our Capital influence team here at Bloomberg and Washington.
17:46
Speaker 5: I don't know, Megan, I mean I could read the
17:48
Speaker 5: list ndaa A CR the Speaker has ready to roll
17:52
Speaker 5: here to avoid a government shut down. The Supplemental by
17:56
Speaker 5: Way of Reconciliation House Rules Committee is going to get
17:59
Speaker 5: underway year in about fifteen minutes. Will that lead to
18:02
Speaker 5: anything actually getting passed before everyone goes away?
18:05
Speaker 9: It's going to be a busy week, certainly in the House,
18:09
Speaker 9: and you know they are motivated to get a lot
18:12
Speaker 9: of this done before leaving for five or six weeks
18:16
Speaker 9: for the August recess, which is basically sort of a
18:19
Speaker 9: crucial final sprint before the midterm elections in November. You know,
18:25
Speaker 9: I think of all the things that are likely to
18:27
Speaker 9: get done, there does seem to be bipartisan consensus around
18:31
Speaker 9: a continuing resolution, one of these stop gap spending measures
18:34
Speaker 9: that would essentially avert a government shut down when the
18:37
Speaker 9: fiscal year ends on September thirtieth and keep the government
18:41
Speaker 9: open until about a month after the midterm elections. No
18:45
Speaker 9: party benefits from having a shutdown right before an election,
18:49
Speaker 9: so there does seem to be consensus there. There are
18:52
Speaker 9: other areas, though, that are going to be trickier. The
18:54
Speaker 9: Defense Authorization Bill, of course, that is usually gets by
18:59
Speaker 9: part is and support, but due to efforts to attach
19:03
Speaker 9: voter identification legislation to that, that is becoming certainly a flashpoint.
19:09
Speaker 9: So now Republican leaders are trying to attract fiscal conservatives
19:14
Speaker 9: and other hardliners within the GOP to support that bill
19:19
Speaker 9: by attaching extraneous measures, assuming that Democrats will vote in
19:24
Speaker 9: mass against it. There are other issues, including a stock
19:27
Speaker 9: trading ban that is now being that used to be
19:31
Speaker 9: a bipartisan effort and is now a It appears that
19:35
Speaker 9: it's mostly a Republican or perhaps a Republican only measure.
19:38
Speaker 9: Do once again to efforts to attach voter ID legislation
19:42
Speaker 9: to that, as well as concerns among Democrats that the
19:46
Speaker 9: new legislation does not have enough teeth for actual enforcement.
19:52
Speaker 2: Well, and on this voter ID idea, Megan, we did
19:55
Speaker 2: hear from President Trump about this on True Social Today.
19:58
Speaker 2: He thanked a number of members of the House and
20:00
Speaker 2: including the Speaker, for launching an effort to get as
20:02
Speaker 2: much of the Save America Act as possible in a
20:05
Speaker 2: budget bill. He goes on to mention different components voter
20:08
Speaker 2: photo ID proof of citizenship and hopefully he says, and
20:11
Speaker 2: this is a quote, no corrupt mail in ballots.
20:14
Speaker 3: How much of.
20:15
Speaker 2: That is actually possible inside of budget reconciliation.
20:20
Speaker 9: Well, it's not really, at least within the Senate, where
20:24
Speaker 9: the parliamentarian has to rule whether something comports with very
20:29
Speaker 9: strict budget guidelines that allow a chamber to allow this
20:33
Speaker 9: chamber to pass it without being at risk of a filibuster,
20:38
Speaker 9: so essentially pass it by a simple majority by fifty
20:42
Speaker 9: to fifty one votes. So the Save America Act as
20:47
Speaker 9: it's written now, it does not it would not likely
20:51
Speaker 9: comport with these, with these budgetary rules, because it is
20:54
Speaker 9: not budgetary in nature. Now, the Reconciliation three point zero
20:59
Speaker 9: as we're calling it, it does have some grant programs
21:03
Speaker 9: in there for voter ID efforts, so that would presumably
21:08
Speaker 9: kind of make the cut for the rules I would think.
21:12
Speaker 9: Of course, this is up to the parliamentarian. But the
21:16
Speaker 9: overall bill is a policy bill and not a budget bill,
21:20
Speaker 9: and it's unlikely that it would make it, and it
21:22
Speaker 9: certainly would not get sixty votes which would be needed
21:25
Speaker 9: to overcome a filibuster.
21:28
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Megan Scullie, who leads our capital influence
21:31
Speaker 2: team here in Washington. Thank you so much, and please
21:34
Speaker 2: to say joining us now in our Washington d C studios.
21:37
Speaker 2: Republican Congressman Mike Flood of Nebraska, who chairs the Republican
21:41
Speaker 2: Main Street Caucus. Congressman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
21:44
Speaker 2: It's nice to see you in person.
21:45
Speaker 10: Thank you very much. Megan was right on top of
21:47
Speaker 10: all her reports there. I can leave now right Well,
21:50
Speaker 10: she outlines.
21:51
Speaker 2: That you have a very busy week, as does the
21:54
Speaker 2: rest of your colleagues in the Chamber. You're going to
21:56
Speaker 2: get all of this done in forties.
21:57
Speaker 10: It is a very big week, and it's a very
21:59
Speaker 10: important week because, as you note, we are back in
22:01
Speaker 10: our districts for recess. I have a town hall next week,
22:04
Speaker 10: We've got things planned, and so if we can pull
22:07
Speaker 10: this week off, it will be a major victory for
22:10
Speaker 10: House Republicans and our speaker.
22:11
Speaker 3: What's number one for you?
22:13
Speaker 5: Is it getting this reconciliation bill off the launch pad
22:16
Speaker 5: and finding a home for Save America?
22:18
Speaker 10: Well, I think I have two shared number one priorities.
22:21
Speaker 10: One would be passing the Continuing Resolution tonight. The House
22:24
Speaker 10: of representatives planning to fund the government before the election
22:26
Speaker 10: because a shutdown is not in America's interest. And then
22:30
Speaker 10: number two would be the reconciliation three point zero. My
22:33
Speaker 10: guess is it'll be hard to get that much further
22:35
Speaker 10: down the street on NDAA because there's a lot of
22:38
Speaker 10: other provisions that were considering.
22:40
Speaker 5: You get a ceer tonight though, Yes, that's entirely possible.
22:43
Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, I'm hopeful we have the votes. That
22:45
Speaker 3: would be a big story on reconciliation.
22:48
Speaker 2: Obviously, ninety five billions of dollars in spending, no offsets
22:52
Speaker 2: for this, And you mentioned that you had a town
22:54
Speaker 2: hall earlier this month, and you'll have one coming up
22:57
Speaker 2: next week. At that town hall, you were asked by
23:00
Speaker 2: an attendee, why do you support Trump when he adds
23:03
Speaker 2: to the debt? This would add to the debt, right,
23:05
Speaker 2: why not include pay force?
23:07
Speaker 3: Well, first of.
23:07
Speaker 10: All, most of this money is to replace our munitions.
23:10
Speaker 10: It's in our national security given our military operations in
23:15
Speaker 10: Venezuela and.
23:15
Speaker 3: The Middle East.
23:16
Speaker 10: And second, if we were to go the route of
23:19
Speaker 10: a regular supplemental with sixty votes in the Senate, we
23:22
Speaker 10: would be doing a deal with the Democrats. Somewhere north
23:26
Speaker 10: of four hundred billion dollars. I'm absolutely sure of it.
23:29
Speaker 10: And so this does what we have to do in
23:31
Speaker 10: that it replenishes our munitions. There's aid to agriculture, the
23:35
Speaker 10: Save Act, and then there's a couple other minor things.
23:39
Speaker 10: But ultimately, I think there's a debt sailing discussion happening.
23:42
Speaker 10: But ultimately, again, yeah, welcome back. Ultimately all of this
23:48
Speaker 10: comes together, and I think this is a lot less
23:51
Speaker 10: expensive than it would have been. And by the way,
23:53
Speaker 10: last year we cut two trillion dollars out of federal
23:56
Speaker 10: spending for the first time in decades.
23:59
Speaker 5: Defense Scretary and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs will
24:01
Speaker 5: be on the hill tomorrow testifying about the budget request
24:05
Speaker 5: for the Pentagon. It's not just the supplemental if we're
24:07
Speaker 5: even still calling that anymore.
24:09
Speaker 3: But when you talk.
24:10
Speaker 5: About the need to replace munitions, President says, we need
24:12
Speaker 5: a trillion and a half dollars not only to fund operations,
24:16
Speaker 5: but to replace everything that has been fired, not just
24:19
Speaker 5: in this conflict but in Ukraine of course, in helping
24:22
Speaker 5: to protect Israel.
24:23
Speaker 3: There's a lot there. How difficult will it.
24:26
Speaker 5: Be for the Secretary and the Chairman to make that argument,
24:31
Speaker 5: and do you think that this number will land somewhere
24:33
Speaker 5: near one point five trillion when you put these bills together?
24:36
Speaker 3: No, okay, no, I do not think what's a realistic
24:39
Speaker 3: I mean, I think.
24:40
Speaker 10: A realistic target for what we need military wise, what
24:43
Speaker 10: we need, what we want what we need are two
24:45
Speaker 10: different things, right, would be like three hundred and fifty billion.
24:49
Speaker 10: But you know, the White House and the House leadership
24:51
Speaker 10: they've decided to embark on this past with reconciliation. I
24:54
Speaker 10: think they've got sixty seven that's a billion dollars in
24:57
Speaker 10: there for the armed forces, eleven billion for agriculture. That
25:02
Speaker 10: is really the first step of many and plus after November,
25:05
Speaker 10: you know, we're going to find out what the next
25:06
Speaker 10: step is. There's even talk and this is remote of
25:10
Speaker 10: a reconciliation four point zero. I don't know how possible
25:13
Speaker 10: that is given the financial year and everything, but there
25:17
Speaker 10: is a conversation about it.
25:18
Speaker 1: I guess got.
25:19
Speaker 2: Across the first bridge you get to. First, you mentioned
25:23
Speaker 2: the aid to farmers. We've seen a few rounds of
25:26
Speaker 2: aid that has to go to the agricultural sector. Is that,
25:28
Speaker 2: to you, Congressman, a failure of the president's tariff policies,
25:31
Speaker 2: is that this is now required, you need to subsidize Americans.
25:35
Speaker 10: Well, the reality was, you know, Mexico wasn't buying our
25:37
Speaker 10: white corn under Joe Biden. We were entering a kind
25:40
Speaker 10: of a dark era in under the Joe Biden terms.
25:43
Speaker 10: So prices, commodity prices aren't where they need to be. Certainly,
25:47
Speaker 10: fertilizer is one of the inputs that's driving a lot
25:50
Speaker 10: of the stress in egg So the eleven billion is helpful.
25:55
Speaker 10: I think ultimately Jamison Greer getting more markets for our soybeans, corns,
26:00
Speaker 10: our grain, all of that is in our interest and hope,
26:04
Speaker 10: I hope we're close to something more with China. The
26:06
Speaker 10: analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence on that farm money is that
26:11
Speaker 10: a lot of it, if not all of it, will.
26:12
Speaker 3: Be used by farmers to pay off debt.
26:15
Speaker 5: For instance, you might not be buying John Dee right
26:18
Speaker 5: now because you have to manage your own finances. Does
26:21
Speaker 5: that mean that there'll be need to be another turn here,
26:24
Speaker 5: They'll be another tranch of money for farmers down the road.
26:27
Speaker 10: Well, I think it's maybe an accurate to say just
26:31
Speaker 10: for debt. If you're sixty two years old, and you've
26:33
Speaker 10: got equity. You're in a much different spot than a
26:36
Speaker 10: forty three year old farmer with a lot of debt.
26:39
Speaker 10: The forty three old farmer is managing operational debt. Probably
26:43
Speaker 10: be going to go through a renewal cycle here in
26:45
Speaker 10: the next three or four well now maybe the next
26:48
Speaker 10: six months. All of that will come around, and hopefully
26:51
Speaker 10: we see uptick in soybeans. We have been watching those
26:54
Speaker 10: prices very closely.
26:55
Speaker 2: Yes, well, and you mentioned fertilizer prices. Of course that
26:58
Speaker 2: has become perhaps more acute the closure of the Straight
27:00
Speaker 2: of Warmus and difficulty getting vital ingredients to fertilizer out
27:04
Speaker 2: of the waterway. It's still an active conflict zone as
27:07
Speaker 2: we speak. And of course we had three more American
27:09
Speaker 2: service members die over the weekend. How much more difficult
27:13
Speaker 2: does that make your job in talking to your constituents
27:16
Speaker 2: and trying to explain why it is that these individuals
27:19
Speaker 2: lost their lives, why we still find ourselves mired in
27:21
Speaker 2: the Middle East. When the President initially said this would
27:24
Speaker 2: just be a matter of.
27:24
Speaker 10: A few weeks, well, remember we're talking about a regime
27:27
Speaker 10: that has vowed death to America.
27:28
Speaker 3: I've said, if I've said it once. I've said it
27:30
Speaker 3: ten times.
27:31
Speaker 10: If they get their hands on a nuclear weapon, if
27:33
Speaker 10: they get their hands on a dirty bomb, they would
27:35
Speaker 10: not hesitate to use it on US soil. They have
27:38
Speaker 10: proven that they are martyrs. Essentially, the people that stepped
27:42
Speaker 10: in after the leadership earlier this year was eliminated, a
27:46
Speaker 10: new round stepped in. So I think President Trump has
27:50
Speaker 10: to deal using force to people that have been using
27:54
Speaker 10: force in US. I still think the President's position and
27:59
Speaker 10: a great majority of US in Congress want to find
28:02
Speaker 10: a solution that's long term.
28:04
Speaker 3: We've been close a couple of times.
28:05
Speaker 10: It's a very complex region, but I think that's the
28:08
Speaker 10: President's focus.
28:09
Speaker 5: We spent some time reviewing your town hall of July seven,
28:13
Speaker 5: which is why Cayley mentioned one of the questions you
28:16
Speaker 5: were asked. You're not the only one, but you are
28:19
Speaker 5: part of a smaller, maybe shrinking circle of lawmakers that
28:22
Speaker 5: continues to hold town hall meetings, have face to face conversations,
28:26
Speaker 5: at times difficult ones, and we salute you for that.
28:29
Speaker 3: Thank you.
28:29
Speaker 5: I'm wondering if you plan to do more, and why
28:32
Speaker 5: isn't everyone acting like Mike flood.
28:35
Speaker 3: Well I do three a year.
28:36
Speaker 10: I'm going to have one coming up next week in Lincoln,
28:38
Speaker 10: which is the biggest city, probably the bluest city in
28:40
Speaker 10: my district. Yeah, nothing gets better if we don't talk
28:43
Speaker 10: to each other. And you certainly understand that in the media. Listen,
28:46
Speaker 10: I've had town halls when ten people show up because
28:49
Speaker 10: you know, there's just isn't that emotion there. Now, there's
28:51
Speaker 10: a lot of emotion in the air, there's a lot
28:53
Speaker 10: of opinions on both sides. I think it's good just
28:56
Speaker 10: to show up, and I hope more people do it.
28:57
Speaker 3: In the future. Well, it's an example for your call
29:00
Speaker 3: le Congressman. It's great to see you.
29:01
Speaker 5: Mike Flood, Republican from Nebraska's first district. He chairs the
29:05
Speaker 5: Republican Main Street Caucus. That should give you a sense
29:08
Speaker 5: of the debate that we're walking into. What's going to
29:10
Speaker 5: be a doozy of a week on Capitol Hill. Kayley,
29:14
Speaker 5: thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
29:17
Speaker 5: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
29:20
Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
29:23
Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
29:26
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg dot com.