Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 172 - 11/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 172 - 11/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 172 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Thanksgiving eve. That's right, tomorrow we got
• 0:39
  Turkey day, friends, family, food, football.
• 0:42
  What's better than that? I'd argue Thanksgiving if we
• 0:45
  could power rate, power rank our our favorite holidays.
• 0:48
  It's got to be one or two. I'm a weird person.
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  I really love Halloween. Again, can't be Christmas or
• 0:54
  Hanukkah as I am proudly half Jewish, but also, you know, you
• 0:58
  get to Independence Day, you know, 4th of July, not a bad one
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  either. Easter's fun, but man, nothing
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  beats Thanksgiving. And actually, after this pod, I
• 1:07
  will be hopping in the car with the wife and the pup and we'll
• 1:10
  be driving about 3 hours across Massachusetts from Boston out to
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  the Berkshires in Western Mass to spend a few days with the
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  family to celebrate Thanksgiving.
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  And again, I've mentioned it before, but I'm very excited to
• 1:21
  sweat some games with the old man with my dad.
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  So very much looking forward to that.
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  But of course, guys, happy Thanksgiving.
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  Just a little bit of housekeeping.
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  No pod tomorrow because I'll be busy eating food and watching
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  football with my dad. But we will be back on Friday.
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  And I do want to mention with all the Thanksgiving Day games
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  for tomorrow, look out for my sharp report that I write for
• 1:41
  visen.com. You can always follow me on
• 1:43
  Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
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  Bright and early, Hopefully around maybe 9:10 AM we will be
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  or I'll be posting that Sharp report.
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  So you'll get some some late movement and maybe a play or two
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  for me for those Thanksgiving Day games.
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  I am holding the under in the Miami and Green Bay game.
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  So that's as of right now my only play.
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  I did notice the Giants look like they're going to play Drew
• 2:04
  Lock. Looks like Mr. Tommy Cutlets is
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  banged up. So Drew Lock against Cooper
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  Rush. And we did see the Cowboys -3
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  1/2 come back down to -3 so worth looking out for.
• 2:16
  And then also surprising movement on the Chicago Bears.
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  Detroit for the early game tomorrow was as high as -10 1/2.
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  I just saw them fall down to 9 1/2.
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  So looks like there might be some money going with Chicago
• 2:28
  there in the points. But of course, last update.
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  Check the Twitter account tomorrow morning at Josh under
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  Score Insights for a Visen Sharp report on the Thanksgiving
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  Thanksgiving Day games. Now looking toward today, guys,
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  I got a four pack of sweats for you.
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  We're going to talk about 3 college basketball plays, two of
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  which are obscure sharp line moves that we love to play.
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  The other one is an unranked favorite versus ranked opponent,
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  which is a very interesting number.
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  It looks fishy publics all over the popular ranked team, but
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  there's a good sharp line freeze on that unranked team.
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  So we'll hit on that and then going to tip dip our toe here in
• 3:01
  some NHL. I don't want to give up on NHL.
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  I know it's been kind of up and down here and been a bit
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  frustrating. I did find one game today that
• 3:10
  had a very sharp Rd. favorite line moving system match.
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  So we'll see if we can maybe cash an NHL ticket for tonight.
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  So 4 bets overall, 3 in college hoops, one in the NHL, and then
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  I'm going to update you on a couple NNFL games for this
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  Sunday that had some good sharp action here.
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  And I'm thinking we probably should grab these numbers right
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  now before they fall too much. Now I buried the lead we got
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  after it last night, 4:00 and 1:00 plus 2.43 units.
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  You love to see it a great night in in college football went to
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  and O again, I mentioned yesterday, I'm like the Dos
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  Equis guy. I don't always lay 23 1/2 on a
• 3:45
  favorite, but I do when they have steam.
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  That is, you know, 0 buyback with a good sharp bet split and
• 3:52
  a team that's rolling against a team that is O and 11 and wants
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  to give up on their season. And Buffalo came through
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  absolutely destroying a little old Kent State.
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  So he covered our 23 1/2 with Buffalo and the surprising 1 was
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  Akron. I was just hoping they'd maybe
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  lose by 8 or less. We got the nine.
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  They won that game outright, 21 to 14.
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  So good sharp reverse line move at one point, but a bit of a
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  line Freeze 2 and O in college football with Akron and Buffalo,
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  you love to see it. Got a good winner to start a day
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  with South Dakota State. Obscure sharp line move, low
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  back game, but a good move across the market.
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  And they were able to roll pretty easily in that one.
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  So it was kind of a non sweat and then lost Duke, which was
• 4:31
  frustrating because public is all over Kansas.
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  Public got the last laugh on that one, but it was all set up
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  for Duke. Hunter Dickinson got ejected
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  from the game. He kicked the other guy in the
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  head. I don't know if it was adverting
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  or inadvertent, but I'm like, OK, no Dickinson, let's go
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  Dookies. Dookies had two chances late to
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  tie the game or take the lead and they blew it on both
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  opportunities. So end up losing by three.
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  But we did get what I would argue is the sweat of the year
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  so far. Rutgers, OMG, late night sweat
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  Rutgers. It was back and forth.
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  First off, Ron Harper's kid, I remember Ron Harper junior, He
• 5:08
  was really good for them, but he's got a little brother, Dylan
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  Harper. This guy was incredible.
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  Almost reminded me a little bit of a more athletic like, almost
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  like a Jalen Brunson, a lefty, super smooth, can go to the
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  rack, shoot threes, kids a freshman.
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  And every time he'd score. They showed Ron Harper his dad.
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  I remember him with the Bulls back in the day when I first
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  started getting into to basketball, but Rutgers back and
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  forth, up down had to absolutely battle and eked out a win 85 to
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  84. And it, it was unbelievable
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  because there was this kid Malako, or I forgot the name of
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  him, a white kid who was at Princeton, transferred to the
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  Irish. And this kid made like 5 threes
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  in the last minute. Every time you thought Rutgers
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  would escape with a win, he kept sinking 3.
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  So he had a chance to win it. Thank God he bricked it.
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  Rutgers ends up winning by one. We cash our money line bet.
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  But why is it important? I always try to stress this guys
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  say it with me. Money line short favorites.
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  Always money line short favorites.
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  You know how how they have those, those bracelets?
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  WWJD, What would Jesus do? I don't know if people still
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  wear those, but I remember they're really hot for a minute.
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  We got to do a MLSF or a I'm going to screw this up AMSF
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  always money line short favorites because again, if you
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  laid A1 or a 1 1/2 with Rutgers, you pushed or lost, you went
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  money line, you won the damn game.
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  So what an epic sweat. Rutgers.
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  I was like, oh, we're going to lose, then we're going to win,
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  then we're going to lose now we're going to win.
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  And luckily they came out with a victory.
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  So if you stayed up late, that Rutgers game probably took ten
• 6:43
  years off your life. But it was worth it because we
• 6:45
  got the dub. So overall, 4:00 and 1:00 plus
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  2.45 units. As always, reminder, you can
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  track these best bets on the juice reel app on the social
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  tab. I'm tweeting it out every single
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  day. If you want to support the pod,
• 6:58
  it's 499 a week, 5 bucks. You know, it's the cup of cup of
• 7:01
  coffee or half a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but you'll be able
• 7:05
  to support the pod. You get the best bets early,
• 7:07
  hopefully beat some closing lines and think of it as I
• 7:10
  really don't want to think of it as selling pics because I, I,
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  I'm like, I don't like that. I don't like the thought of
• 7:15
  that. I don't like the way it sounds.
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  Think of it as supporting the podcast.
• 7:19
  You're supporting the pod. The pod's free 5 bucks a week.
• 7:22
  It's your way of telling me you enjoy it, you appreciate it.
• 7:25
  Think of it as a tip jar. And then also, again, hopefully
• 7:28
  a benefit to you is that you get these plays a little early.
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  Maybe you get a, you know -120 month money line that I put in
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  there at noon. By the time the pod rolls
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  around, it's -130 think of it that way.
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  You're getting hopefully better numbers.
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  Anyway, without further ado, let's get right back to it.
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  And I want to start off with, you know where we're going, some
• 7:46
  college hoops, tons of college hoops games today.
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  First one I'm going to focus on is a bit of a smaller game.
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  It's a six O clock game between Richmond and Ball State.
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  Now going into this one, both teams have losing records.
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  We have Richmond coming in three and four.
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  Just lost a lot. Tech yesterday, 6562, Ball State
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  three and four as well. They just took down Florida
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  Tech. They crushed him 94 to 57.
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  So going into this one, what are we seeing across the market?
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  Well, good line move toward Richmond.
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  I'm going Richmond Spiders on the money line now.
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  It's a little bit pricey. I got Richmond Spiders at -182
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  at FanDuel, but they open at -3 they're all the way up now to
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  -4. So we've seen a one point line
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  move in favor of Richmond. Again, there's a lot of games
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  say this is not the most popular bet, of course.
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  And it's kind of in that weird like, you know, 6:00 early
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  evening, you know, late afternoon.
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  It's kind of in that that buffer zone.
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  So it's kind of being overlooked, but not by the wise
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  guys. As soon as this line came out -3
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  sharps hammered Richmond caused it to rise up to four.
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  Now, Ken Palm does have Richmond winning by exactly 4.
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  So This is why I want to go money line.
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  And I don't really want to go much higher than around -180 on
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  the money line. I used to go up to -200 And then
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  it's like, you know, even if you go, you know, you kind of have,
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  you know, you go two and two and one with -2 hundreds.
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  You actually, you know, are almost down.
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  So I try not to go much higher than this is about as about as
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  high as I'll go with the money line price.
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  But I want to protect myself on Richmond for the exact same
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  reason we played Rutgers on the money line.
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  Richmond wins by 1-2 or three, we lose, they win by 4, we push,
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  they win the game, we win our bet.
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  So I got -182 money line Richmond.
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  I mentioned Ken Palms got him winning by 4.
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  He's got him ranked higher. Two O 7 in the country versus
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  274 for Ball State. Couple advantages here, slightly
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  better offense. Ranked 261 in offensive
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  efficiency versus 283 for Ball State, but a big advantage
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  defensively. Defensive efficiency with
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  Richmond 136th in the country. May not sound amazing but Ball
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  State is 227. So slightly better offense, way
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  better defense. I overlooked this but a good bet
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  split for DraftKings. 64% bet, 73% dollars on Richmond that
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  coincides with that line move in their favor.
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  Rhythm has a winning by 4 just like Ken Palm has a winning by
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  4. I kind of like the idea of a buy
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  low sell high because Richmond is coming off a short 3 point
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  loss to LA Tech yesterday, whereas Ball State is off a
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  blowout win against a pretty bad team.
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  So I want to buy low on the team that lost in a squeaker.
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  I want to sell high on the team that won in a blowout.
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  And then some other angles here. Free throw percentage, which
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  could be big in a tight game, 72% versus 71%, not a huge
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  advantage, but slightly better with Richmond.
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  But then the other angle I was looking at the Ken Palm fan
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  match tab and if you click the actual the score or right next
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  to it, it'll give you, you know, all the categories that I
• 10:47
  mentioned, you know, offensive, defensive efficiency, 3 point
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  shooting, you know, free throw all, all of those are listed
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  there. But I found one huge discrepancy
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  in terms of defensive rebounding.
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  Or basically think of it the other way, allowing offensive
• 11:02
  rebounds. Richmond is really good on their
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  defensive end. They're ranked 9th in the
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  country in terms of allowing the fewest number of offensive
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  rebounds. Flip it to Ball State, they're
• 11:12
  one of the worst. They ranked 222.
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  So Ball State gives up a lot of offensive rebounds.
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  Advanced Richmond. Richmond does not give up many
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  offensive rebounds, which again, offensive rebounds are killers.
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  Extra possessions in that Duke game, and you saw it a little
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  bit in the Rutgers game. Just so many offensive boards
• 11:29
  that could not grab a freaking defensive rebound.
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  So it's definitely important. But big angle here for me is
• 11:36
  it's a low back game. The lines moving toward
• 11:38
  Richmond, Ken Palm and rhythm got him guy winning by 4.
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  Better offense, better defense, better defensive rebounding.
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  I went money line here so shop around.
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  Fanduel's your best number right now.
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  Richmond -182 next play for you. Another low bet obscure game
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  Loyola Miramount against Wyoming.
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  Now this one caught my eye for a couple reasons.
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  One, it's an 8:30 PM Eastern Time game.
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  We're going to talk about another 830 game tonight.
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  That is extremely heavily bet. This is a low back game.
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  Public doesn't really care. Wyoming, Loyola Miramount.
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  However, sharps have taken a position here and it's on Loyola
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  Miramount now. Wyoming comes in five and one.
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  They just won 6463 over Tulane yesterday.
• 12:22
  You had Loyola Miramount win yesterday over Belmont 77 to 63,
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  but Wyoming's five and one Loyola Miramount is 2 and 3.
• 12:31
  So Wyoming's favored right neutral court.
• 12:33
  This is the Cancun challenge. Must be nice to be in Cancun at
• 12:36
  the Hard Rock Hotel in the Riviera Maya.
• 12:39
  Anyway, Wyoming's favored right there.
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  Five and one. Loyola Marymount 2 and 3.
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  Nope. Loyola Marymount is favored in
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  this game. And not only did they open as a
• 12:49
  favorite -2 1/2 on a neutral court they've been now but up to
• 12:52
  -3 or even -3 1/2. So why did the line open with
• 12:57
  the two and three team favored over the five and one team and
• 13:00
  why did it move even further toward the team of the worst?
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  Record tells me we got smart money on Loyola Miramount.
• 13:07
  Once again, money line short favorites.
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  I money line Loyola Miramount at -165 that's at Caesar's.
• 13:12
  But let's get into the data. DraftKings spread percentage,
• 13:15
  only 56% of bets are on Loyola Miramount, but they're taking
• 13:19
  into account 77% of dollars. So a good low bets, higher
• 13:23
  dollars bet split. Now Ken Palm has a winning by
• 13:26
  three. He's got him ranked way higher
• 13:28
  though, 148 in the country versus 215, better offensive
• 13:32
  efficiency, 182 versus 259 better defensive efficiency, 138
• 13:38
  versus 156. Turnover percentage.
• 13:41
  Do you take care of the ball or do you cough it up?
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  Well, Loyola takes pretty good care of the ball.
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  They rank 8th and fewest turnovers allowed versus Wyoming
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  ranking 343. So Wyoming gets, you know,
• 13:52
  steals blocks, they turn it over quite a bit.
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  Free throw advantage again, tight game, knocked down your
• 13:57
  free throws 66% versus 62% in favor of Loyola Marymount
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  experience. Notice that Loyola Marymount is
• 14:05
  much more experienced, 2.58 years in college for their
• 14:08
  players versus only 1.91 for Wyoming.
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  I popped open rhythm. Rhythm has Wyoming.
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  I have two models here or has a Loyola Marymount, I should say 2
• 14:19
  models -4.2 and -4.4. So you add it all up low bed
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  obscure game lines going to Loyola Miramount.
• 14:28
  Again, it's fishy. Why is the two and three team
• 14:30
  favored over the five and one team overtime you learn to
• 14:33
  embrace that, that fishy angle instead of saying, oh,
• 14:35
  oddsmakers got it wrong. Hammer Wyoming.
• 14:37
  But all signs here market Ken Palm, rhythm, percentages,
• 14:42
  stats, all favoring Loyola Miramount with that line move.
• 14:45
  So again, I'm going to root for Loyola Miramount to win the damn
• 14:48
  game -165 now the biggest game of the night.
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  And I say that in terms of ticket count and handle, and
• 14:56
  it's on national TV. Xavier and Michigan.
• 15:01
  This is on Fox Sports 1. This is the Fort Myers tip off.
• 15:05
  This is your most heavily bet late game.
• 15:08
  There's later games, You know, they're actually games that come
• 15:10
  off take off, tip off at like midnight tonight.
• 15:13
  By the way, UConn losing two in a row, they lose three in a row,
• 15:16
  they're favored by like 7 against who is it Dayton
• 15:19
  tonight? I think that game's at midnight.
• 15:21
  But anyway, Michigan and Xavier. Now the first thing you notice
• 15:26
  about this one, Michigan's five and one good record, but they're
• 15:29
  unranked. Xavier is 6 and O, they're
• 15:32
  ranked 22nd in the country. So Xavier is the favorite,
• 15:35
  right? Nope.
• 15:36
  Michigan is favored this game open Michigan around a one point
• 15:41
  favorite, 1 1/2 point favorite. Some books are down to 1.
• 15:45
  You know, really isn't a line move on Michigan.
• 15:48
  But what's little to me of Michigan is that everyone's
• 15:50
  playing Xavier. Xavier is getting nearly 70% of
• 15:55
  spread bets. Again, take the point point and
• 15:57
  1/2 with the quote UN quote better team with Xavier.
• 16:00
  However, we're still showing Michigan -1 So it's not like
• 16:04
  Michigan is you know -1 up to -3 like it's not a huge fade, the
• 16:08
  trendy dog reverse line move, but it's a bit of a line freeze.
• 16:10
  Why are the odds makers not flipping dog to favorite in
• 16:13
  favor of Xavier if they're the better team?
• 16:16
  And if you know the public is pounding them, tells me there is
• 16:19
  a reluctance on the part of the books to drop this number
• 16:22
  because they don't want to give out a better price, not to the
• 16:25
  Xavier public betters, but to the Michigan contrarian betters.
• 16:29
  So Michigan only getting around 30% of bets but 57% of dollars
• 16:34
  at DraftKings. Good.
• 16:35
  Fade the trendy dog play. Think of it this way.
• 16:37
  This is just to fade the trendy dog public.
• 16:39
  Xavier trendy dog sharps Michigan with the line freeze.
• 16:43
  I love the unranked versus ranked.
• 16:45
  This is a system match we've played for quite a while at this
• 16:48
  point. It's not an unranked home favors
• 16:50
  ranked opponent because it's a neutral court.
• 16:52
  But I love the angle of an unranked favorite versus ranked
• 16:54
  team. Now, Ken Palm as Michigan
• 16:56
  winning by two. And this is interesting.
• 16:59
  Ken Palm who does his rankings based on data versus the voters
• 17:04
  who vote for the the AP or USA TODAY rankings.
• 17:07
  He actually has Michigan ranked higher again in the regular
• 17:11
  rankings. Xavier's 22nd.
• 17:13
  Michigan is unranked. Ken Palm disagrees.
• 17:15
  He says Michigan's 32nd, Xavier is 39th.
• 17:19
  So I like the fact that the the data, not the not the bias of
• 17:23
  the voters, but the data says Michigan's the better team now.
• 17:26
  Michigan has the better defensive efficiency, 23rd in
• 17:29
  the country versus 56 for Xavier.
• 17:32
  They have the better effective field goal percentage, 59%
• 17:35
  versus 56%. Big advantage on the boards.
• 17:38
  Offensive rebound percentage of 41% versus 28% for Xavier.
• 17:44
  Rhythm, by the way, has Michigan also winning by about two
• 17:46
  points. So this is a money line play for
• 17:49
  me. It's a very short money line.
• 17:51
  Again, Michigan, this is a little bit like like Rutgers,
• 17:53
  like Rutgers wins by 1. You are one.
• 17:56
  You know, you lose your 1 1/2. You, you, you win your money
• 17:58
  line, but you lose your minus, but you lose your -1 1/2 or
• 18:02
  pusher one. Let's say Michigan wins by 1.
• 18:05
  You lay A1, you push. There's a 1 1/2 I see out there.
• 18:08
  You lose. This is a very short money line.
• 18:10
  I got Michigan Wolverines on the money line at -114 at FanDuel.
• 18:16
  Let's fade a trendy dog, let's go Michigan.
• 18:19
  So Michigan, Loyola Marymount and Richmond, all three money
• 18:23
  line bets. Can we get 2 out of three?
• 18:25
  That is the goal. Now over to the NHL.
• 18:28
  Found one game that was checking off all the boxes for me.
• 18:31
  And I said, you know what? Haven't been great in NHL this
• 18:34
  year, But I don't want to give up on it because I think once
• 18:36
  you give up on a sport, you kind of just, you know, accept that
• 18:40
  you're not going to get any better.
• 18:41
  And that's not really the mindset I think you want to
• 18:43
  have. You want to continue to grind,
• 18:44
  figure out what what's not working, you know, tweak the
• 18:47
  model or maybe your model is working, you know, per SE, it's
• 18:51
  just not giving me the results you want.
• 18:53
  I've had fantastic hockey years. I've had not great hockey years,
• 18:56
  but I don't want to give up on a sport that provides us
• 18:59
  opportunities to make money each day.
• 19:01
  So with all that being said, I found one bet that caught my
• 19:05
  eye. Minnesota Wild, Buffalo Sabres
• 19:07
  7:00 tonight, Wild come in 13-4 and four.
• 19:11
  Buffalo is 11/9 and one. Now, the first thing you notice
• 19:14
  about this one is a good sharp line move toward the Wild.
• 19:17
  I'm going wild here, guys. I got wild on the money line at
• 19:20
  -138 at FanDuel. But the Wild opened around a -,
• 19:25
  125 road favorite. Now they've been bet up all the
• 19:27
  way to -140 you must see one shot -145 S right off the bat.
• 19:32
  All movement in favor of the Minnesota Wild and I like that.
• 19:36
  This is a really fishy buy low, sell high because the Wild who
• 19:40
  have a really good record, they've lost two straight.
• 19:42
  So just from the standpoint of buying low on a good team off of
• 19:45
  two straight losses, they want to get back to their winning
• 19:48
  ways. I think you got motivation on
• 19:49
  Minnesota to get a win. Flip side, let's fade the
• 19:52
  Sabres. They've won three straight.
• 19:55
  I think it's a good time to to sell high on the Sabres at this
• 19:57
  point. So you have the combination of
• 19:58
  selling high on the Sabres, buying low on Minnesota, and
• 20:01
  then we layer in a ton of system matches.
• 20:04
  Our favorite one, which you guys remember.
• 20:06
  Rd. favorite off a loss versus an opponent off a win.
• 20:10
  This year it's 18 and 6. I should, you know what I should
• 20:13
  do? I should only play the system
• 20:14
  match. 18 and 675 percent, 25% ROI.
• 20:18
  Both missed the play offs. Take the favorite since 2021,
• 20:23
  it's 64%. This year it's 66% with an 8%
• 20:26
  ROI. Rested Rd. favorite.
• 20:29
  You've had at least two days since your last game.
• 20:32
  That is 62% this year, 2% ROI and a road favorite with Steam
• 20:37
  versus an opponent who missed the postseason.
• 20:38
  So your Rd. favorite, at least $0.10 of line movement in your
• 20:41
  favor and the opponent missed the postseason.
• 20:44
  That's 27 and 1663% this year, 4% ROI.
• 20:48
  But the big one is that road fave off a loss opponent off a
• 20:51
  win. Again, 18 and six this season.
• 20:54
  So that matches with Minnesota. Hopefully an advantage here in
• 20:57
  net. Philip Gust Gustafson for
• 21:00
  Minnesota, 2.18 goals against, 923 say percent.
• 21:03
  She's been really good. I always love this name.
• 21:06
  Uko Pekka Luokinen 2.55 goals against, 910 say percent.
• 21:11
  So he's been pretty good, but Gustafson has been better.
• 21:15
  Minnesota's got the better offense, 3.3 goals a game versus
• 21:17
  3.2 better defense, 2.5 goals allowed a game versus 3.1 And
• 21:22
  Minnesota 91 and three on the road this year.
• 21:25
  They've been a pretty good Rd. team.
• 21:27
  So this is a good Wild team that maybe had a little hiccup here.
• 21:30
  They've lost two straight. Let's get them back on track.
• 21:32
  Let's see if we can win a hockey game.
• 21:34
  I got the wild -138 again, most shops around -140 ish, so Wild,
• 21:41
  Michigan, Lola, Marymount, Richmond, a four pack.
• 21:44
  Can we find our way to scratch and claw and get three of them?
• 21:47
  That is the goal. Now I want to mention just a
• 21:50
  couple updated, you know, things that I've seen across the
• 21:53
  market. Actually put in two more plays
• 21:55
  for this weekend in the NFL. Let me tell you which ones I
• 21:58
  got. So I am already holding Miami
• 22:01
  Green Bay under 47 1/2 for tomorrow night.
• 22:05
  That's your windy under. I'm a little nervous.
• 22:07
  I thought it was going down to 47.
• 22:09
  I saw one book get up to 48. So not going to overreact.
• 22:12
  Remember, we have that Thanksgiving night trend, the
• 22:15
  under 11 and six. So hopefully we're able to get
• 22:17
  that one. But I was surprised it got up to
• 22:19
  48. If you want to play it, you can
• 22:21
  now get the 48. I'm just going to hold on to my
• 22:23
  under 47 1/2. It's still contrarian.
• 22:26
  It's still a windy under. It's still a Turkey day night
• 22:28
  game trend. Also money lined.
• 22:31
  The Seattle Seahawks mentioned this was a kind of a fate of The
• 22:35
  Jets who are a dumpster fire. And I just saw that Breece Hall
• 22:38
  miss practice with a knee injury.
• 22:40
  But they open as a like a one point dog.
• 22:42
  They flip to A2 point favorite and I got a lot of system
• 22:45
  matches here. Non conference favorite,
• 22:47
  straight up Rd. favorite, straight up 73% this year.
• 22:50
  So I'm on Seattle money line, but I added a couple more and
• 22:53
  I'll be honest, I kind of like the board this week.
• 22:55
  So here's one that I added, Tennessee and Washington.
• 22:59
  This one jumped out to me because everyone's expecting a
• 23:02
  bounce back spot for Washington. Jaden Daniels at home.
• 23:05
  They had that bad loss against the Cowboys.
• 23:07
  Don't get me started. I had the under and they
• 23:10
  proceeded to score I think 41 points in the fourth quarter.
• 23:14
  But anyway, Publix playing Washington around 60% of bets,
• 23:18
  but Washington open -7 1/2 the lines down to -6 I even see some
• 23:22
  shops going down to 5 1/2. So it's pretty clear here that
• 23:25
  the Tennessee Titans are taking in a lot of respected money.
• 23:29
  Only 39% bets, but 50% dollars. Rd. dogs getting six or more.
• 23:34
  They're 25 and 12 ATS 68% this year.
• 23:37
  They're also a buy low bad ATS team two and nine against the
• 23:40
  spread versus sell high good ATS team 7, four and one.
• 23:44
  ATSI was able to get plus 6 1/2 at -122 at FanDuel.
• 23:51
  That might be the only book that's offering the hook, but if
• 23:53
  you have FanDuel, at least as of right now, it's 2:37 in the
• 23:57
  afternoon. It's still there, but most books
• 23:59
  are down to six and I see again some at 5 1/2.
• 24:02
  So I jumped on the Titans plus 6 1/2 again.
• 24:05
  Even the six I'm not going to argue with, but it's pretty
• 24:07
  clear Publix Washington lines going to Tennessee.
• 24:10
  And then our friends at Rhythm actually have Tennessee plus 4.6
• 24:16
  and only plus 1.6. So Rhythm says it's value, value
• 24:20
  play to take the points with Tennessee.
• 24:21
  So again, I put in Titans today plus 6 1/2.
• 24:25
  You can sign up to follow those best bets at Juice Reel and jump
• 24:28
  on them before the pod. But I'm gonna hope that we can
• 24:30
  get a dog to bark with the Titans there.
• 24:33
  Next one, Tampa Bay, Carolina. You might puke in your mouth on
• 24:37
  this one, but I like Carolina and the points Tampa Bay comes
• 24:41
  in, they snap the losing skid. They crush the Giants 30 to 7:00
• 24:46
  last week. But we've seen this line fall
• 24:48
  toward Carolina. Tampa Bay opened on the road as
• 24:51
  a 6 1/2 point favorite. They're down to six.
• 24:54
  And I see one book maybe going down to 5 1/2.
• 24:56
  So it's notable to me. Why is this line going to
• 24:58
  Carolina if everybody's playing Tampa Bay?
• 25:01
  They're getting 80% of spread bets.
• 25:03
  Carolina is just an excellent contrarian play.
• 25:05
  It's one of your most lopsided Sunday games.
• 25:08
  But here's where it gets even better. 20% bets, 37% dollars,
• 25:13
  reverse line. Move toward Carolina, but listen
• 25:16
  to this divisional dogs. We know we like that because of
• 25:19
  the built in familiarity, leveling the playing field,
• 25:21
  benefiting the team, getting points.
• 25:23
  But in particular, if you isolate divisional dogs getting
• 25:26
  6 points or more, they're fourteen and five against the
• 25:29
  spread this year, 74%. It's also a buy low.
• 25:33
  Bad ATS versus good ATS. You have the Panthers four and
• 25:36
  seven against the spread versus 7 and 4 ATS for Tampa Bay.
• 25:40
  And what do I, what do I mean by that?
• 25:42
  Bad ATS versus good ATS? It means that Carolina has not
• 25:45
  covered a lot of numbers. So anyone who's played them
• 25:47
  wants to bet against them out of spite.
• 25:50
  Anyone who has bet against them as one.
• 25:52
  So they'll continue to do it. And then the other way, a team
• 25:55
  that covers a lot like Tampa, you want to sell high on them.
• 25:58
  So when you first start betting on sports like, oh, give me the
• 26:00
  good ATS team. Let me fade the bad.
• 26:03
  But when you think about value and what value means, you
• 26:05
  actually want to flip it and then brace the bad ATS first
• 26:08
  good ATS because again, regression, you know, you, you
• 26:11
  would, you would assume or at least think that the bad team
• 26:13
  gets a little better. The good team, you know, tumbles
• 26:16
  down a little bit. But I like the points here.
• 26:18
  I grabbed Carolina +6 and Caesar's got him, has him right
• 26:22
  now at plus 6 -, 1 O 5. So you can save a little deuce
• 26:25
  with some RJ reduced juice. Panthers plus 6 - 1 O 5 now.
• 26:30
  I also saw a big line move toward the Jaguars today.
• 26:34
  I'm getting nervous about my Houston over 9 1/2 win total.
• 26:37
  It really hurt losing the Titans last week, but they're at the
• 26:41
  Jags. I don't know if it's going to be
• 26:43
  Mac Jones or Trevor Lawrence, but I did notice the line fell
• 26:47
  to the Jags. It was Houston minus 6 1/2.
• 26:51
  The line got all the way down to four, even 3 1/2 and now I just
• 26:54
  saw it tick back up to like 4/4 and 1/2.
• 26:57
  So again, I need clarity on the quarterback situation there.
• 27:00
  Obviously, I'm rooting for I'm rooting for Houston to win the
• 27:04
  game personally because of the win total.
• 27:06
  But again, you know, Jags do have a line move here, but let's
• 27:09
  wait it out. Let's see where it's going
• 27:11
  because it fell. Now it's starting to come back
• 27:13
  up, but we'll give it a couple days and see how it develops.
• 27:17
  So Seattle money line. I got the under in the Green Bay
• 27:20
  game tomorrow. Titan 6 1/2 Panthers 6, a couple
• 27:24
  bets here in pocket. And then of course, college
• 27:26
  football, East Carolina money line, San Jose State money line.
• 27:29
  Those are two bets that we talked about yesterday.
• 27:32
  So that about does it for the Thanksgiving Eve edition of the
• 27:35
  All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast, episode 172 powered by
• 27:40
  Rhythm. But this is the part of the pod
• 27:42
  where we wrap things up. And I start by first saying
• 27:45
  thank you. We're not going to have a pod
• 27:46
  tomorrow. Enjoy your time with family or
• 27:48
  friends or however you celebrate.
• 27:51
  Hope you have a fantastic Thanksgiving Day.
• 27:53
  Think about what you're thankful for and what sounds, you know,
• 27:56
  gooey and you know, like a like cliche.
• 27:59
  But I think it is a good day to reflect on maybe not all the bad
• 28:02
  things in your life, but the good things that you are
• 28:04
  thankful for. I'm thankful that I can host
• 28:07
  this podcast and work in a career that I absolutely have a
• 28:10
  passion and a love for. Like if I couldn't, if I
• 28:14
  couldn't work in the betting industry, I don't know what I'd
• 28:15
  be doing. But I'm thankful for, you know,
• 28:18
  for, for being able to, to work in a career that I'm passionate
• 28:21
  about. What are you thankful for?
• 28:23
  Think about it. But anyway, I'm thankful for you
• 28:26
  guys tuning into the pod each day, helping me grow the pod.
• 28:30
  I consider you guys all friends. We all think about it, or I
• 28:34
  think about it, if you know, meeting up at the bar with a
• 28:36
  notebook, an iPad, going through numbers, trying to make sharp
• 28:39
  bets. And I'm thankful for you guys
• 28:41
  taking the time out of your day to sweat these these breakdowns
• 28:44
  with me. So thank you if you are thankful
• 28:46
  for me, hopefully, hopefully I provide you some good content,
• 28:49
  some good insights. Could you please do me a favor?
• 28:52
  Could you please give this podcast a five star review on
• 28:55
  Spotify or iTunes mean a lot. Help us to grow the pod, get
• 28:59
  more, more traction, rise up the charts, gain more, gain more,
• 29:03
  you know, eyeballs or ears, however you want to think about
• 29:06
  it would mean a lot to me. If you want to give it a five
• 29:09
  star review or rating, you want to leave a nice comment review,
• 29:12
  that would be great as well. And also if you want to click
• 29:15
  the follow button, that way you'll get alerted as soon as it
• 29:17
  drops each day. If you want to recommend it to a
• 29:19
  friend, that's great as well. Next, if you want to learn more
• 29:24
  about data-driven sharp contrarian bedding.
• 29:26
  Or you have someone in your life who maybe could use a few tips
• 29:29
  on bankroll management and how to read line movement, how to
• 29:32
  identify sharp action, how to go contrarian.
• 29:34
  Maybe it's the holiday season coming up and you have no
• 29:37
  freaking clue what to get that family member or colleague or
• 29:40
  that person in your life who maybe likes to bet on sports,
• 29:43
  doesn't win very much but wants to get better.
• 29:46
  Or maybe someone who's never bet and doesn't want it doesn't know
• 29:49
  how to get into it. I got a great idea.
• 29:51
  You should buy them or buy it for yourself.
• 29:54
  A book called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 29:57
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 30:00
  Betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
• 30:02
  friend and it's really the sharp contrarian blueprint again,
• 30:05
  reading line movement, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
• 30:08
  in person or online, how to identify sharp action all
• 30:11
  included in the everything guide to sports betting.
• 30:13
  So pick one up makes a great stocking stuffer and when you
• 30:17
  bring it to the sports book, I'll sign it for you and I'll
• 30:19
  buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together
• 30:23
  next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
• 30:24
  day free trial of juice reel or rhythm yet?
• 30:27
  Well, if you haven't, now's the time to do it when you're when
• 30:30
  you're avoiding your family members or board or you know,
• 30:33
  trying to trying to have some fun and sweat some games and you
• 30:36
  got no information on any of these games.
• 30:38
  You know you can do. You can pop open rhythm, look at
• 30:40
  their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 30:42
  player props, and then juice reel.
• 30:45
  You can track every all systems go best bet from the social tab.
• 30:49
  You can also find insights on arbitrage opportunities,
• 30:53
  grinding out a guaranteed profit by following the risk ratios.
• 30:56
  Also, you can tell the best bets from Robo Jackson.
• 30:59
  You can also take advantage of the sharp mush indicator letting
• 31:02
  you know where all the wise guys are at versus games where the
• 31:05
  public, the losing betters are at.
• 31:07
  But both apps are great. They help me win.
• 31:09
  They're going to help you win. Go download juice real and
• 31:11
  rhythm in the App Store. So that about does it for
• 31:15
  another edition of the all systems go sports betting pod.
• 31:17
  This is the part of the pod where we again leave you with a
• 31:20
  couple final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 31:23
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 31:26
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 31:29
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
• 31:32
  Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
• 31:34
  Massachusetts route in the desert where the true grinders
• 31:37
  get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
• 31:39
  number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
• 31:41
  South Point. Or sweat And sharp contrarian
• 31:44
  plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool when Rutgers finds a
• 31:48
  way to win it at the end, wherever it may be.
• 31:50
  You're going to walk up to me, you know, Show me some nice
• 31:52
  tickets from last night. Show me an Akron plus 9.
• 31:55
  Show me a Buffalo -23 1/2. Show me a South Dakota State
• 31:59
  Jack rabbits. Show me a Rutgers ticket.
• 32:01
  Just don't show me a Dookies ticket.
• 32:02
  Duke let us down. But I'll take a four in 1 + 2.45
• 32:06
  unit at night any day of the week.
• 32:08
  But of course, first is on me, next is on you.
• 32:11
  We're going to post it at the book.
• 32:12
  Sweat sharp and train plays together.
• 32:14
  So I wish you the best of luck everyone.
• 32:16
  As always, remember 4 and one yesterday one and four yesterday
• 32:20
  up down grinding doesn't matter. The model of blueprint never
• 32:23
  changes. If we can stay true to that
• 32:26
  model, betting games that are heading and not our heart
• 32:28
  against the public with the house, with the pros flat bet,
• 32:31
  avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
• 32:33
  If we can stay true to the data and put our bias to the side.
• 32:37
  If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
• 32:40
  sports bettors. So I wish you the very best
• 32:43
  Thanksgiving. Have a great time.
• 32:45
  Hopefully we can catch some Thanksgiving Day tickets, enjoy
• 32:48
  good food, family. If it's if you're one of those
• 32:51
  people who meets up with buddies in your hometown on the night
• 32:54
  before Thanksgiving, which I may or may not be doing tonight,
• 32:58
  please don't drink and drive, get an Uber, don't do anything
• 33:00
  stupid. All the cops are out tonight.
• 33:03
  I feel like I said this all throughout my 20s and now I'm
• 33:05
  like 37. I'm like, I guess people know by
• 33:07
  now, but have we have a good time?
• 33:09
  Stay safe, enjoy the holidays, guys.
• 33:11
  Again, no pod tomorrow, but we will be back on Friday.
• 33:14
  You can check out the sharp report for for tomorrow and you
• 33:17
  can also if I add any best bets for tomorrow you can find on the
• 33:21
  juice trail app. But happy Thanksgiving,
• 33:23
  everyone. Enjoy the Turkey, the stuffing,
• 33:25
  the gravy. Maybe you're doing a ham or some
• 33:28
  kind of I don't know what sides you guys like.
• 33:30
  We got a power rate the sides, but enjoy your holiday.
• 33:34
  Have a great day and be back at it on Friday, which will be
• 33:36
  episode 173 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
• 33:41
  powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody, and happy
• 33:44
  Thanksgiving.