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The arbitration and 40-man decisions that will shape the Nats offseason · District Territory

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Ball's in! Coming down! That's right, it is Franny, Shelly, Spencey.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I guess we should call it that if we're going
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: to do it. Eric Schellhaus, Kevin Franzen, Spencer Nussbaum with you.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: We got plenty of stuff to go on this offseason
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: as we are in our first full week. We're in
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: the Division Series of action. It's And some things have
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: come out, and Moby Trade Rumors does a great job
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: every week as far as projecting some arbitration numbers. And
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I think more or less there's formulas to this. All
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: these organizations have plenty to go around. We were going
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to go into maybe more of a roster construction part
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: of this thing because 45 is the number right now
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: they're at as far as players on the roster. And
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: how do you get that on a 40-man roster? You've
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: got five 60-day IL guys. That kind of helps you
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: get a few extra guys in there. So you're going
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: to have to bring those guys off. You're going to
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: have to take guys off the roster and you're going
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: to need to, I think this is where we're going
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: to have to open it up to you boys. How
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: many roster spots are we going to need this off
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: season before they do protection there in November? Yeah.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're asking about who might even need
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to be added onto the roster, right? I think that's
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: what you're asking with that question.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Harleen Susana needs to be added to the 40 man.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Travis Sikora needs to be added to the 40 man.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Alejandro Rosario, for those of you who don't know, Throws
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: basically as well as those guys, but has been injured
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: for a long, long time. Acquired in the Mackenzie Gore deal.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: He needs to be added to the 40-man roster. Beyond that,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: there are some more, I should say, fringe cases. You
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: have a Max Romero who, you know, a couple years
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: ago we were looking at as a backup catcher in AA.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Now he's looking like a legit prospect. He's someone who's
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: right on that decision barrier. And so him and then
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: just a handful of maybe other potential cases. They play Lipscomb,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: guys like that. Um, it is, it is definitely at
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: least three guys who will be added to the 40 man. Um,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: as I've been trying to game this out though, you
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: could get that number up to seven, eight different guys. Um,
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: and that's going to be really fascinating and compelling to,
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: to figure out who that is.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: And for those that don't realize that, that part of
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the protection part is the rule five draft and they will,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: they're going to try to have it before the, the
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: lockout happens. That's what I've been told. I don't know
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: if it's actually going to happen, but there, uh, there
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: there's talk that, you know, Look, you could also take
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: a chance and not protect some of these guys maybe
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: thinking that the no Rule 5 draft happens. Happened a
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: couple years ago. So could that be a possibility? We
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: will see. Shelly, what do you think on that one?
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: I think that the Rule 5 draft is a critical
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: part of how a lot of teams construct their rosters
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: going into the season. Look at Nassim Nunez and what
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: a big part he has become of this Nationals team.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: He was a Rule 5 addition. I certainly hope that
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: that's something they get in.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I think the Nationals have some players that they need
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: to get off of this 40-man roster, as you just stated.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: They're five over and have a lot of guys they
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: need to protect. I think a lot of that is
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: probably pitching and relief pitching that does not need to
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: be tendered and coming back. Maybe we should jump into
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: some of those names here.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Well, we should. But I think let's chop off the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: ones that we do know, right, as far as what
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: will most likely come off. I think that's the easy one.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: before we get into that arbitration part because the arbitration numbers,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: there are certain guys there that you look at and
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: you're like, okay, yeah, makes sense. But then there's some
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: that are going to be bigger question marks, and I
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: think that's the one. But are there easy ones for
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: you as far as, Spence, where the Nats could go
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: in their front office to those first five guys to
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: get it down to 40 before we get it even lower?
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: You're talking about before even the non-tenders? Before the non-tenders.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Or are you talking about including them? Because you've got
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: to activate the guys before you get them to 40
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: right at the end of the season into free agency.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the first name that comes to mind
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: is Jose Tena. Has been with the Nationals since 2024.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I think we talked about this a little bit last time, right,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: where teams like to be careful in terms of what
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: they actually say. But when you think about what they
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: actually do, I mean, Tena got 15 plate appearances in September,
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: which is a pretty clear sign that they're ready to
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: move on So at least on the position player front,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: that's the easy one. Beyond that, I mean, they have
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: a number of candidates that they could potentially DFA or
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: part ways with. Almost all of them in the bullpen,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: whether it is, I'm looking down at my notes now,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Carson Palmquist didn't have a great season for them. Paxton Schultz,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: up and down guy. Zach Kent had a couple of
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: compelling appearances in the big leagues, but. You know, those
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: are three names off the bat where you go, that
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: gets you down to 42. Beyond that, I mean, I
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: like Kyle Nicholas, but never appeared in the big league.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: So it's kind of a TBD. So yeah, I think
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: a lot of those decisions will be in the bullpen.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: But when I think about just the straight up out
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: of options, DFA candidates on the position player side, I
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: think Jose Tena, and you guys can speak to this too,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: is probably the first one out.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: I would agree. I just don't think we've seen the
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: offensive production from him down the stretch in the second
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: half or over the previous couple of years and not
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: really sure where he fits into this roster going into
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: 2027 as well.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Well, if you want to see the table, you got
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: to have a seat with SeatGeek, right? Isn't that right, Eric?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: That is.
• 5:34
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• 5:35
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• 5:37
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• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Thank you, SeatGeek. All right, let's do it. It's just
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: going to be exactly like SeatGeek with green means good,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: red means bad. And when you look at this roster,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: estimated final payroll for 2025 was $ 118 million if you
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: looked at roster resource. There's three separate, like you got SpotTrack,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: you got roster resource, and you got Cots Baseball. All
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: three are so different. They take into account so many
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: different things. For my purpose only, I'm just saying, I'm
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: using the final estimated payroll at 118 from Roster Resource
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: on Fangraphs. Thank you.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: I actually have to interrupt you on this one real
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: quick because that's actually the 2025 payroll from Roster Resource.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: 98 million. That is right. I'm looking at the wrong
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: one on that one. That is awesome. That's how you
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: do it. They're able to pare it down by 30.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: When you look at the next year's whole deal. There's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: only two guys with guaranteed rosters or guaranteed contracts for
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: next year. Now they have all the guys that are,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: you know, pre-arb. They're already on the roster. What I'm
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: talking about is guaranteed, signed through free agency or signed
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: through arbitration years. And that's Kevin Ruiz and Kay Cavalli. Now,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: by the way, it was the same thing as last
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: year because Kay Cavalli had a two-year deal before he
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: signed this one based on that whole thing. So he
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: was already locked up. We already knew that one. But
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Both those guys, a combined $ 10. 375 billion is what they're
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: going to make. Let me reiterate that again.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: $ 10.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: 375 for two guys. That's it. All right. So then
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: you look at the other side of this. You've got
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: eight guys arbitration eligible. And so the question to me,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: for me to you, is it green light, red light?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Green light being 10-year contract, red light. Sorry, but we're
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: going to have to move on. Josiah Gray. We have
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: to lead it off. He's got the most service time.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: So he's in, I think, last year of arbitration for him. Yeah.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: It's tough that you're leading off with this one because
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: this is actually the one that I've struggled the most with.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So let's go to the back end on it. Let's
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: go to the back end on it.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: That's fine. Because I think this is the part where
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: you have to adjust, right? Like when we think about
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: where are we on the roster. So let's go. Let's go. Okay.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I like this. I like this. You make a valid point.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So let's go to the point of lowest service time,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: first time eligible, Mitchell Parker. How about that? Probably red light. Yeah.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I would also go red. 1.1 million. Okay.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, small contract, but would take up a spot
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: on the 40-man roster. Candidly did not. Impressed much in
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: 2025 when he was a starter. The transition to the
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen was not much better in high leverage spots. Do
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: I think he can still be a big league pitcher? Yes.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Do I think that is going to happen with the Nationals?
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Probably not. And you have to figure and he's going
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: to be hurt all of next year as well, or
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: at least seemingly so. And so, yeah, that one that
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: one's a red.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Light for me.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would also throw it under the red light category.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: It was kind of just a disaster of a year
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: for him coming out of the bullpen, and that didn't
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: work too well. I think he's best suited in different
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: colors going into next season.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: All right, the next one would be J.Y., Jacob Young.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: That's the second easiest green light on the list. Again,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: read out to me how much he's making or projecting
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: to make next year.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: 2.3, but this is, for me, this is the one
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: of all the guys that are on there that is
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the most likely to get a multi-year. Like if, if
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: you were to extend this out and move it two,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: three years, I would do that in a heartbeat just
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: because it's, it's not going to, it's not going to
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: cost you a ton and you know how reliable the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: human being is, right? Like number one, first and foremost,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: that is it. But for me, it's an easy green light,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: but he might be the best case for a multi-year deal. Yeah.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: And they've talked about, um, kind of at the end
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: of last season, wanting guys to develop into leaders who
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: have maybe been more Fringe leaders, so to speak, in
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: years past. KB Ruiz was one. Jacob Young was the
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: other big one, which makes a ton of sense, right?
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: Like guys respect him in that room. Guys respect him
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: outside of that room. And more than that, like oftentimes
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: when you are a leader, it's hard to do that
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: without having the production actually behind it. And obviously he's
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: been one of the best defensive players in baseball for years.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: But to back that up with the sort of offensive
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: season he had as well. Again, you add in the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: human Franny. You're absolutely right. This is a guy who
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: seems poised to maybe you play that out over two
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: years instead of one.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an easy green for me all the way.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: Like Spencer said, probably the second easiest besides C.J. Abrams,
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: of course. But yeah, the offensive output that we saw
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: from him this season makes it a no-brainer for me.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Eric, you go into the stands often, right? With buddies,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: you have buddies that are Nats fans. Is he an
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: easy one to target always as being like, We love
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: this guy more than anything. Like he is he's someone
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: you ride or die with just based on who Jacob
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Young is. Oh, yeah.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: My friend always loves to tell the story about the
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: time that he was out in the Red Forge and J.Y.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Turned around and threw him a baseball.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: And he always seems to bring it up to him.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: And J.Y.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: Says he remembers it. I'm not sure if he actually
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: remembers the face, but he does.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: He does.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: He does.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Oh, it's wild.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: When he sees him down on the field, sometimes he'll
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: help out with filming. He'll be like, oh, I remember it.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: I remember it. He's 100% someone that Nationals fans absolutely love.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: And I noticed in the Harps Off section, they had
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: the C.J. Abrams and the James Wood chants going on
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: here and there. I swear, if there was a third
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: player that they were calling out to, it was Jacob Young,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: and he would turn around and acknowledge up to them
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: in the third deck there. So I think he's an
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: absolute fan favorite among Nats fans. And of course, the
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: walk-up song gets the ballpark into it every single time. It, uh,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: it was my favorite, but he had some competition this
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: year with Dalen.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty good. I like that one. All right.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Ken Waldachuk. Uh, we didn't get to see a whole
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: lot of them. Explosive fastball. We know it's a low
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: arm slot, high upshoot fastball. There's a lot of swing
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and miss. There's a lot of walks, right? And this
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: year we saw a little bit more in the zone.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Second Tommy John, he's having to go through, uh, but
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: a million dollars where they're at with him. And it's,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I don't want to sit there and say, you know,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: so different than Mitchell Parker. I think it's so different
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: than Mitchell Parker. I think this is a more, it
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: might be more leaning towards the non tender part, but
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: you understand if they kept them and if the non tender,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: can we resign them as a minor league free agent
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: and allow them to work up into that spot? I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: think would be one of those things with him. Yeah.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: And that's where I'm at now again, like nationals fans
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: saw him and they saw a guy who allowed like
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: eight runs in five innings and had Tommy Johns. I
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: think he is so much more than that. He's a
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: guy who I was high on coming into the season
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: in large part because of what you said, not just
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: like the induced vertical break on his fastball or like
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the rise on it, so to speak, but because it's
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: coming from that really funky arm slot that usually you're
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: not seeing that from. And so for me, I almost
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: worry that another team is going to take hold of that.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: And he might actually be able to sign somewhere else
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: later into the season on a big league deal, as
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: opposed to a minor league contract over the winter with
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: the nationals. All that being said, kind of another case of,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: I think he's a big league pitcher, but to shorten
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: this out, I think it's still a red light because
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: you need to take a chance on some other probably
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: relief arms heading into next season. But that's, that's no
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: knock on Waldo Chuck, who I still think maybe post
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: TJ has a, you know, kind of third act in him.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: So that's, that's kind of my take on it.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: At a projected 1 million, it's really not that much
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: of a risk, I guess, but at the same time,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: just haven't really seen a lot of encouraging stuff. And
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: I think that would be a perfect scenario. If there
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: was a way where the nationals could re-sign him on
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: a minor league contract and have him work his way
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: through the system and earn his way back onto the
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: 40 man, that, that would be ideal. But there is
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: some electric stuff down there that I'm, so mixed in
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: between this one, but you said other, other guys, I
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: think maybe need this opportunity for that reason. I would
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: probably say red.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: All right. I'm going to skip the next guy. Cause
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I think he'll be in the group of three, the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: last group of three on this one, but let's go
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Jake bird, Jake bird over three years, almost four or
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: four exact years of service time. 1.3 is the projection
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: on him. Relief pitcher. He got hot for, I would
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: say a couple weeks span. You and I were interested
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: in that move, right, in setting him down in the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: moment that he was because, I mean, the swing and
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: miss got there. We saw him actually, you know, utilize
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: shapes a little bit better. He had talked to me
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: about getting that slider shape tighter and, you know, closer
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: together for the axis part of it. So, for me,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I go green light on him.
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: I hate to be agreeing with you on every single one.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I actually was hoping maybe we would disagree on this
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: one in particular. I am also a green light. I
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: think talking to people in the organization, they believe that
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: he is, and this is not easy per se, but
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: he is basically a platoon split away from being a
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: great major league reliever. Now, again, we've seen over time
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: because of the way his pitches move. He is not,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: I'll try to stop using inside baseball words and I'll
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: just say he struggles against, you know, you know, opposite
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: handed pitching and does well or hitting and does well
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: against same sided pitching.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Three nine, three 96, 10 78 OPS is, is nothing to, to,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: you know, shy, shy away from, right. That's left-handed. Yes.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: And I, so I think, you know, he will always
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: be a platoon guy, so to speak, but when the
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: numbers are that bad, you really have to worry. All
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: that being said, one three for a guy who is
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: shown in his career, he can be dominant. He's a,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: he's a veteran. Um, and more than that, they believe
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: in him and they acquired him. And I don't think
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: that that is, um, necessarily a negligible fact. Um, I
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: don't know that he makes the opening day bullpen next year. Um,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: but I think that's a safe arm to at least have, uh,
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: you know, back there, but I, I do not think
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: that's an easy call at all. I think you could
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: go either way on it.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: Right. I, yeah, I think for me, I may have
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: to disagree. I would probably have to put it as
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: a red. I just didn't love what I saw from
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: him down the stretch there and think that maybe some
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: other guys deserve the opportunity a little bit more.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: It was the one in that.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: Entire trade that had me scratching my head a little
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: bit because I viewed it as a guy who was
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: going to be pitching for a couple of months and
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: that was going to be it is his Nationals tenure.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: So. It will be interesting.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: We saw flashes, I think, before he was acquired in
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: New York where he was really good. But if the
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: Nationals aren't able to unlock that, I wouldn't tender.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Richard Lovelady is the next one. He just over four
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: years service time. $ 1. 7 million is his projected salary for
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: next year as far as the ARB numbers go. We
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: saw some good. I think more the bad at times
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: played a factor in this. I would go red light
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: on this one.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a red light. You mentioned the
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: number that's probably bigger than the Nationals would want to pay.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Beyond that, at the end of the day, you want
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: a guy who can get lefties out right. And even
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: though Lovelady has shown stretches in his career where he
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: can get guys out, it's never been the platoon. It's
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: always been same-sided. Or, excuse me, opposite-handed hitting. And so, yeah,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: for me, when I think about wanting a dominant or
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: even a second-tier lefty in the bullpen, my mind probably
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't go to Lovelady. But he's someone who will probably
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: get a job somewhere else or at least will be
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: competing for spots somewhere else like he did with the
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Mets and Nationals before this season.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah.
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: I would really like to see him come back. Uh,
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: the emotion that he pitched with out there got me
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: so fired up. I'm emotional person, but I guess we
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: have to make business decisions here and look down at
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: 1.7 million and say that is.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, the emotion came on sweepers, bro.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was on the sweepers, the swing and misses. Um,
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: but yeah, 1.7 million. It is, I think a little
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: more than the nationals might want to give out to
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: someone like that. Um, but they will need to have
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: lefties down in the bullpen. I mean, I guess they
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: don't need to, but traditional bullpens, you'd like to have
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: a lefty down there.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: And I mean, they got plenty of, they got plenty
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: of options with lefties. Right.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Which they didn't at the start of the year, which
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: is why, you know.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Like Tolman's Tolman's a for sure.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Like you, you know what you're going to get there,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: whether you have any of these guys coming up for
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the minor leagues at any point in time. Sure. We
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Like it's a part of it. Palmquist is going to
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: be involved. I'm sure because he's, you know, they're still pre-arb.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: You're not paying them anything. Don't. And it's going to
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: be something they're going to probably seek during the off season.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: So like, that's the part where I wouldn't rest everything on,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: you know, not, not worried about like, you know, filling
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: in those lefties already, but it's, can he get guys
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: out or can he not? Like, are you, are you
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: giving them one seven to get guys out or not? Right.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: And like they have, well, that's the whole thing with
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: this is they have money to play with. So like, yes, if,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: if that's the direction that they want to go in
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: and they, they start opening the checkbooks fine, but they
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: will not have an unlimited payroll forever. So like, well,
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: one seven, thank you. No. Can it be better spent elsewhere? Probably. Yeah.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: All right. That's where we get to the big three
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: here with Jake Irvin, CJ Abrams, Josiah Gray. And I,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: and I say the big three because they're the longest
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: tenured guys here. When you think about it, as far
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: as within that, not service time with in the big leagues,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: but service time with the Nats and Jake Irvin, I
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: think would be the one to start right there at three, four.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: We know the struggles. We know that there's been a
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: lot of, you know, talk about the highest ERA in
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: baseball over the last like three years. The peripherals don't
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: all suggest like there's, there's something good that's going to happen.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: And so are you going off of leadership and vibes
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: or are you moving on?
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's probably a red light, right? Again, I,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I will preface all of that by saying the good
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: things that he does is Um, in that clubhouse, he
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: is an important leader. Um, someone who after wins is
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: making sure to highlight the players that might otherwise go,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: you know, under notice or under respected. Um, I think
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: we have seen stretches from him or even, I can
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: just say plain out like starts from him where he
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: goes eight innings, one earned run seven innings to hit.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Like he, he has those outings in him. Um, But
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: there just isn't the degree of consistency that he needs
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: to maybe lock up a spot the way that he
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: has the past few years. And so he's another one
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: where I think maybe a new situation or a different
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: setting might help him out. But the fastball at 94,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: the curveball at 81. I like the idea of throwing
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: three different fastballs. But at the end of the day, like,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: you know, to borrow a phrase from the former GM,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: like you kind of are who the back of your
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: baseball card says you are to a certain degree, right? Um,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: and so I think that Jay can have a better
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: second half of his career. Um, but I think it's
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: hard to look at that three, four number, look at
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: the ERA over five and say, oh, you're, you're guaranteed
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: a spot in next year's rotation. Um, I think he
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: is planning to work out in Florida this year. Um,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: and so maybe they see a little extra juice in
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: his fastball. They unlock something and go, oh, let's keep them.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: I don't, I don't think that that is out of
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: the picture, but I do think it's most likely a
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: red light.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, at $ 3. 4 million, it's just a lot for a guy.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: Like you said, when you look at the back of
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: the baseball card, it has not been particularly encouraging. But
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: the leadership from him has just been incredible. And I
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: honestly wonder what the clubhouse starts to look like without him.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: You know how well him and Cade Cavalli get along
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: and the success that Cade had this season. I'd really
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: like to see Drake back, but... with the, uh, the
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: highest CRA is Franny mentioned the last couple of seasons.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: I think it's probably a red for me too. Um,
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: you just hope that he can figure it out and
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: somewhere else if it's not DC. Uh, but there's just,
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: there hasn't been enough for me to, uh, give reason
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: to tender him a contract.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: All right. Uh, let's go with Josiah gray. Let's say,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: let's stick with the, uh, um, starting rotation because Cade,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Andrew Alvarez, I would say the DJ, hers, probably early
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: is all involved with the starting rotation. Uh, there's going
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: to be more added. You know, that you've got the Travis,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the cores, you got the Harley suit, Susanna's, you know,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: coming in, uh, this year at some point, hopefully, um,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: where are you at with Josiah gray and his return?
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I think if Josiah gray has a future with this team,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: in my eyes, it's probably out of the bullpen. Um, Again,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: maybe not, again, because of the deep pitch mix and
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: things of that nature. It is really hard for me
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: to say red light because, again, of what he's been through,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: the fact that the number is not very large. And
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to kind of go against what a
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: computer might say or even what I thought I might
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: say heading into this. And I might even change my mind, right?
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: it's a yellow light, but I'll, I'll call it a
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: green just again, because I think it matters.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: I think it matters to have, I think it matters
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: to have a culture guy like that around at a,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: at a one three you know, blowing through the green
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: light or the red light or however you might say it.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I think it's, it's not a very big number. I
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: think that's like 500,000 over what the rookie minimum will be.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: And it might even be smaller with a, um, post
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: CBA world. Um, I think given everything he's been through,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: given the fact that he does have some funky characteristics
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: in his delivery and his pitch mix, um, someone who
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: should theoretically get some time again, also probably in Florida
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: with the team to figure things out. Um, it's possible
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: what they see in Florida, they will say, Hey, we
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: thank you for your time. We're very glad we worked together.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: We'll move on. I think that that is well within
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the realm of possibility. Um, I just think he's so
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: well liked in the organization. I think that he has
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: some characteristics that are interesting. And so I'm not even
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: sold on my own answer per se, but like if
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: I'm going with my gut, I'll say green light. We'll
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: see if my answer changes in, you know, 30 seconds
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: or 30 minutes or however long we, we decide to
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: debate this.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Think about this. So if they kept it where it
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: was at one, three, 5 million, right? Like that's where his,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: his last number was set. I don't know why a
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: bump makes me say red light. If you stayed at
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the number, green light. It wasn't like he was there forever.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I think it would be actually doable. I like the
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: yellow light going to green light on it. If it's
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: closer to the number this year, then yeah. Give me
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: green light. Where are you at, Eric, on that one?
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Coming into the season, I was a big fat red
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: light on this one. I honestly didn't know what the...
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: I didn't think we were ever going to see Josiah
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: throw a pitch again, frankly. I just didn't want to
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: believe that we were going to see him come back
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: and play as well as we did down the stretch.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: And he did.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: He totally proved my expectations wrong. And that's made it
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: a lot more interesting now. I would say yes, because
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: the price point is so low. But I also agree,
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I think when you look at the rotation and guys
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: that will be coming next season, he probably fits into
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: this roster better from a bullpen perspective. And he was
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: pitching so well out of the bullpen in September. Why
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: mess with something that has been going so well?
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Right. And we saw him throwing, he touched 94 early, um, again,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: a small sample. There was some 90, 91 in there. Um,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: but you think about it, just, I agree who throws
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: 94 miles per hour in an organization that has been
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: able to teach velocity, right? Um, is it too late
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: for him to sit 94 for the rest of his career?
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but if I'm going to trust an
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: organization to do it, it's the nationals or the Dodgers or, um,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: you know, a handful of these VLO sort of orgs.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Um, and that's why I say, yeah, give him a shot. Um,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: and he can, he can find a, um, probably be
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: able to find a job elsewhere, but I think he
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: means a lot to his organization and has some, some
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: room to grow. So that's why I lean green light.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: All right. The last one is the obvious green light
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: for everybody. It should be, um, if it's not, we're
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: going to fight, but it is the $ 6 million bump
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: or more, uh, for a guy in CJ rooms. And
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I think that, uh, look, this is a interesting number
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: that you look at for a guy. Um, he's earned it.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying interesting as far as like, it's, it's
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: too high to anything. I'm just saying it's going to,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: is it going to be as a national? I hope so.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: And I hope as a second baseman moving forward and, and,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: and doing that stuff, I, I, I think we're going
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: to see nothing but good. But CJ Abrams projected at 10-2.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I don't care what the number is. I'm saying green
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: light all day long. Yeah. Yeah.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Well, I was not doing the math because I don't
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: know these ARB numbers. Just looking at some past comps,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked if that number gets up to
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: like 12 or 13 or something like that.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: No, I agree with you.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: And again, you have to pay it. I do not
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: know what the Nationals are going to do with C.J.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Abrams this winter. I think anyone who says definitively is
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: either better reported than me or more likely doesn't know.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: And so I think the fact of the matter is
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: this is one of your building blocks. If you don't
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: have C.J. Abrams on your roster, your payroll is like
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: $ 35 million as opposed to $ 45 million. Both of those
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: are just unbelievably low numbers. And that's why it kind
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: of is at this point. If you have a guy
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: this talented in-house, keep him and pay him. of the philosophy.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think they have to keep them, but, um, my,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: my larger point and focus and philosophy here is, um,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: there is no problem adding to this payroll given where
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: it's at. And CJ Abrams factors into that quite nicely.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: He absolutely earned the, uh, The additional money this offseason,
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: the 10.2 seems kind of low to me, frankly. I
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: just say whatever the number is, you got to get
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: it done. This team is not the team that it
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: is without C.J. Abrams. And I think you really start
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: to lose some identity if you move on from him
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: and you definitely lose the support of the fan base.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: And I just don't know if they can handle another
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: move like that right now. So I sure hope he's
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: suiting up in Nationals red next off next season.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be an interesting one as
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: we move forward into this offseason. It was interesting to
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: see how the end of the year played out. Him
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: going from second to short playing a couple back-to-back games
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: in second base, but I'm more interested to see where
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: his team comes into play on this and the number
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: that they come in on because that's going to be
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: an interesting one. I can see them going all the
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: way up to like 18. You can see that. You
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: can sense that they want to get paid the way
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: that they feel like he should, so maybe they strike
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: a deal. Maybe there's something that goes on. Maybe you'll
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: just have to keep tuning in to District Territory because
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: we'll have some updates as the season goes on and
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the offseason continues because this is just week one, a
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: full week one. We're not talking playoffs. We're not talking anything,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: which we could if we wanted to, but we might
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: do that at some other point. This is District Territory.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Until next time, peace.