Latest / The SME Stream / Ashley Church: What will inflation rates do to the property market?

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Ashley Church: What will inflation rates do to the property market? · The SME Stream

0:14
Speaker 1: The next Wow, then.
0:19
Speaker 2: It's once again.
0:24
Speaker 1: Race and welcome back to the show. Is the One
0:27
Speaker 1: Roof radio show on the Weekend Collective. By the way,
0:29
Speaker 1: if you miss any of the previous hours or the
0:32
Speaker 1: subsequent hours, you can go and check out our podcast
0:34
Speaker 1: just for the Weekend Collective and away you go. And
0:37
Speaker 1: this is by the way, if you missed the panel,
0:40
Speaker 1: it was Irene Gardner and Shane to Poe. We covered
0:41
Speaker 1: a lot of fun topics and some great conversations, So
0:44
Speaker 1: go and check that out as if you've missed the
0:46
Speaker 1: previous hour. But right now it's the One Roof Radio show.
0:49
Speaker 1: And my guest is well, he's a property expert and
0:52
Speaker 1: property commentator. He's been doing it for a wee while
0:54
Speaker 1: now it's certainly been in the property game for also
0:56
Speaker 1: quite a while and also on the show for a while.
0:58
Speaker 1: His name is Ashley Church. Actually, how are you going?
1:01
Speaker 3: I'm going a good tim I'm still buzzing from the
1:03
Speaker 3: cup races this morning.
1:05
Speaker 1: Ah. Yes, I love.
1:09
Speaker 3: It the same, same, same, And and it was great
1:14
Speaker 3: that we actually dropped a couple of races, I think
1:15
Speaker 3: because it just heightened the the tension a couple of notches.
1:18
Speaker 3: Which was which is a good thing.
1:20
Speaker 1: You know. The other thing about it is that we
1:24
Speaker 1: actually just sailed better. You know, you don't get a
1:28
Speaker 1: kilometer ahead based on just boat speed. I think that
1:32
Speaker 1: the boats are actually very very close. But we we
1:36
Speaker 1: picked the wind, you know. I think that Berlin said
1:39
Speaker 1: it was like sailing off Takapuna and.
1:41
Speaker 3: You and you know what. I love with with without
1:43
Speaker 3: any wanting to draw disparagus upon anybody else. I just
1:46
Speaker 3: love the calmness and the humility of Berling and and
1:49
Speaker 3: the rest of the team.
1:50
Speaker 4: You know.
1:50
Speaker 3: Berlin a few days ago was advised by media that
1:54
Speaker 3: he had exceeded spit It as the as the greatest
1:58
Speaker 3: America's Cup skipper in terms of when full time. Yeah,
2:00
Speaker 3: I think yeah, And I think he said something like,
2:02
Speaker 3: oh that's cool. Wasn't it a great race?
2:06
Speaker 1: It's probably quite a studied it's quite a studied modesty.
2:09
Speaker 1: You have to be ready fault default setting. But yeah, no,
2:13
Speaker 1: I'm right into it. And I think, well, I don't know.
2:16
Speaker 1: I think apparently the wind's going to be at light
2:18
Speaker 1: the next day or too, but we'll be catching with
2:20
Speaker 1: our sportsne.
2:21
Speaker 3: Well, if it's not tomorrow, it'll be the next day.
2:23
Speaker 1: Indeed indeed, right, And how have you been good?
2:28
Speaker 3: Have been good? I had a very quick trip overseas
2:30
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks back, which was unexpected, and yeah,
2:33
Speaker 3: so that was all good and no thing's been great.
2:35
Speaker 1: Right, let's get into it, shall we. Inflation numbers. Now,
2:40
Speaker 1: inflation is way down from what we've seen as its peak.
2:43
Speaker 1: It's the lowest and three and a half years down
2:45
Speaker 1: to down from three point three to two point two percent.
2:49
Speaker 1: And I guess the question that popped straight into my
2:53
Speaker 1: mind is what it really means for the property market,
2:55
Speaker 1: because I think when everyone decides to buy, then obviously
3:00
Speaker 1: you're too late in terms of getting into it. But
3:03
Speaker 1: what is it actually How do these inflation numbers impact
3:06
Speaker 1: property both in terms of your predictions but based on
3:10
Speaker 1: what you've observed over the years, what do you what
3:12
Speaker 1: do you make of it?
3:13
Speaker 3: If the question is how does inflation affect the property market,
3:15
Speaker 3: it's kind of the wrong question. It's almost the wrong
3:18
Speaker 3: way around because because the latter.
3:20
Speaker 1: Is actually more how does property inflicting?
3:23
Speaker 3: And there's a good reason for that. So in general terms,
3:27
Speaker 3: in general terms, inflation actually doesn't affect the property market
3:30
Speaker 3: other than obviously when when house prices are going up,
3:33
Speaker 3: then that's a form of inflation in itself, but it
3:35
Speaker 3: doesn't affect the overall inflation figures to the extent that
3:37
Speaker 3: you might think it would. But what infects inflation when
3:40
Speaker 3: it comes to the properly market and indeed the overall market,
3:43
Speaker 3: is the role that the Reserve Bank plays. So your mate,
3:48
Speaker 3: my mate, my mate, my main or old Adrian, we're.
3:52
Speaker 1: Going to be seeing my Christmas cards. Sorry for bagging
3:54
Speaker 1: you're so much, Adrian, I can't stand, but.
4:00
Speaker 3: I do feel Look, he was exceptional as the CEO
4:04
Speaker 3: or whatever his role was with the super fund. He
4:07
Speaker 3: you know, to the extent that that fund's been successful
4:09
Speaker 3: over the last few years it's has doing so I
4:11
Speaker 3: don't want to take that away from him, but wholly
4:14
Speaker 3: unsuitable in this new role, or not all that new
4:16
Speaker 3: now anyway. So when inflation goes up, such as it
4:21
Speaker 3: has over the last two or three years as a
4:23
Speaker 3: result of the Reserve Bank increasing the ocr that's an
4:26
Speaker 3: artificial phenomenon, and it's caused by the Reserve Bank deliberately
4:30
Speaker 3: wanting to push inflation up so as to suppress demand
4:33
Speaker 3: within the market, and that has an impact on the
4:35
Speaker 3: housing market, because when they do that pushes up mortgage
4:38
Speaker 3: interest rates. In fact, it pushes up interest rates overall
4:41
Speaker 3: within the market. Conversely, when when we get to the
4:45
Speaker 3: point we're at at the moment where they've overshot that market,
4:47
Speaker 3: it's almost become too extreme and they start bringing it
4:51
Speaker 3: down again, that brings mortgage interest rates down, and so
4:54
Speaker 3: as a result of that, house prices will go up.
4:57
Speaker 3: And that's just a given that there's no I don't
5:00
Speaker 3: think there's any serious question of that now. As the
5:02
Speaker 3: cost of money reduces, how the cost of housing goes up,
5:06
Speaker 3: and then it will. So it's that they're not a
5:08
Speaker 3: direct relationship, and that one doesn't immediately follow the other,
5:11
Speaker 3: but it does follow it. So at some stage over
5:13
Speaker 3: the next two or three years, you'll start to see
5:15
Speaker 3: first a gradule and then quite a rapid risinghouse prices
5:18
Speaker 3: as a result of the cost of money coming down.
5:20
Speaker 1: We want your calls on this. Now that the new
5:22
Speaker 1: inflation data is in and it's now down to within
5:26
Speaker 1: the band which the Reserve Bank targeted between one and
5:29
Speaker 1: three percent, what what are your plans with regards to property?
5:33
Speaker 1: Is now the time to buy? Because the other question
5:36
Speaker 1: is Ashley, this is probably something I've got from you,
5:40
Speaker 1: not that I've actually done it, but as I know.
5:47
Speaker 3: Tell me.
5:49
Speaker 1: But well, I think it might have been you who
5:52
Speaker 1: said that now is all that now is always the
5:55
Speaker 1: time to buy. If the equation makes sense broadly speaking
6:01
Speaker 1: as a theme, is that you that said that, it
6:03
Speaker 1: is me?
6:04
Speaker 3: And so it's interesting, So because when I say that,
6:07
Speaker 3: I say that in the context of people purchasing propercy,
6:11
Speaker 3: whether they're buying it to live in or as investment
6:12
Speaker 3: property for the long haul. So if you're buying property
6:15
Speaker 3: for a long time, you know, five or ten, fifteen,
6:19
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five years, even if you're buying and selling
6:22
Speaker 3: that property within that period of time, then then when
6:25
Speaker 3: you buy it is relatively insignificant because it will continue
6:28
Speaker 3: going up by quite significant amounts over that period of time.
6:31
Speaker 3: If if somebody, you know, somebody could probably legitimately come
6:35
Speaker 3: back to me and say, hey, well two years ago
6:37
Speaker 3: you were saying now is a good time to buy property,
6:39
Speaker 3: and it dropped away a little bit more in value.
6:40
Speaker 3: Therefore you were wrong if you're looking in a very
6:43
Speaker 3: tight time frame like that, on the basis that you
6:45
Speaker 3: were expecting to get in and out of the market quickly. Yeah,
6:48
Speaker 3: you could probably criticize it, but that's never the way
6:50
Speaker 3: I mean it. I always mean it in the context
6:52
Speaker 3: that when if you buy an air in ten years time,
6:55
Speaker 3: it's going to be worth something approaching twice what you
6:57
Speaker 3: paid for it. Who cares if you lost ten percent
6:59
Speaker 3: in the early stages of that purchase.
7:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, because I think that that's probably one been one
7:04
Speaker 1: of the things that stops some people is they're thinking,
7:06
Speaker 1: let me try and predict the bottom of the cycle,
7:08
Speaker 1: because I want to get a bargain, and otherwise I'm
7:09
Speaker 1: not going to buy. But the point being is that, look,
7:12
Speaker 1: just get in and if you're playing a long game.
7:16
Speaker 1: What is a long game these days? And property probably.
7:18
Speaker 3: Oh ten years, ten years and more. I mean, but
7:22
Speaker 3: if it's a house, if it's your own home, then
7:24
Speaker 3: you going once you buy a home, it's unlikely that
7:26
Speaker 3: you're not going to buy a home for the remainder
7:28
Speaker 3: of your life own a home, sorry, for the remainder
7:30
Speaker 3: of your life. You might own several homes over that time,
7:33
Speaker 3: but once you've started that journey, that journey is going
7:35
Speaker 3: to continue. Very few people buy a home and then
7:37
Speaker 3: don't have one at some stage later in life. They
7:39
Speaker 3: just continue upgrading it over the course of their lifetime.
7:42
Speaker 1: I guess the thing would be how much, because the
7:44
Speaker 1: property market really did go through the roof and it's
7:48
Speaker 1: been tailing off or going flat. Yeah it was. That
7:51
Speaker 1: was down to Adrian or as well. Wasn't it cheap money?
7:53
Speaker 1: Cheap money, cheap money? But what does it mean in
7:57
Speaker 1: terms of where's the market at, in terms of any
7:59
Speaker 1: adjustment that needs to make and having.
8:03
Speaker 3: It's pretty much done? So, you know, I mean, and
8:06
Speaker 3: it's interesting because when you talk about the market, there
8:08
Speaker 3: is and I'm as guilty of this as anybody, but
8:10
Speaker 3: there is no one market. There are parts of the
8:11
Speaker 3: country where it has price yeah, well with more than
8:14
Speaker 3: several there's probably twenty or thirty to be honest. And
8:17
Speaker 3: there are some parts of the country where house prices
8:18
Speaker 3: really weren't affected all that much. And there's others where Wellington,
8:22
Speaker 3: for example, why where they dropped as much as twenty percent.
8:25
Speaker 3: So it really depends on where you are. But I
8:27
Speaker 3: think regardless of that equation, it's fair to say that
8:30
Speaker 3: it's pretty It bottomed out about six to nine months ago.
8:34
Speaker 3: It's been sitting taper, you know, I know, I saw
8:36
Speaker 3: something from Core Logical or Real esta Atitude or somebody
8:39
Speaker 3: a few days ago saying it had dropped half a percent.
8:41
Speaker 3: Those numbers are meaningless in the context of the overall market.
8:44
Speaker 3: It's overall, it's stable, and it will soon start going up.
8:49
Speaker 1: What would be the signs that it's going to start
8:51
Speaker 1: to move? Is it?
8:53
Speaker 3: Oh? That started? They started nine months ago. The first
8:56
Speaker 3: of them was that the So the first sign, if
8:58
Speaker 3: you want for it as an empirical sign, was that
8:59
Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank stopped increasing the ocr That was that
9:02
Speaker 3: had stopped at five percent I think nine or ten
9:04
Speaker 3: months ago. So that was that was signed number one
9:06
Speaker 3: because that gave people confidence that they weren't going to
9:08
Speaker 3: have more pain. And then all they were really doing
9:11
Speaker 3: was waiting for interest rates to start coming down. And
9:13
Speaker 3: we know now that that started happening and that will
9:15
Speaker 3: that will accelerate over the next twelve months. Is a
9:17
Speaker 3: reserve bank six to remedy the era that it's made
9:20
Speaker 3: with the market?
9:21
Speaker 1: What do you again? Where we sort of by the
9:24
Speaker 1: way we want your calls. I might not have mentioned
9:26
Speaker 1: that at the start. My apologies eight hundred eighty ten
9:28
Speaker 1: and eighty text nine two nine two. You've heard the
9:30
Speaker 1: inflation numbers. They're down from the sort of frightening highs
9:34
Speaker 1: that they were at now to about two point two
9:35
Speaker 1: percent the last and three and a half years. I think.
9:38
Speaker 1: So I want to hear from you eight hundred eighty
9:40
Speaker 1: ten eighty What does that? What did that have on
9:45
Speaker 1: your investment decisions in the property market, whether it be
9:48
Speaker 1: investing as a literally an investor, or investing is in
9:52
Speaker 1: the broader sense of investing in your own future by
9:54
Speaker 1: having your own home. Yeah, eight hundred eighty ten eighty.
9:59
Speaker 1: I guess the the next question is that people are
10:01
Speaker 1: going to be thinking about is how far mortgage rates
10:05
Speaker 1: will fall, Because I've heard predictions as much as they
10:09
Speaker 1: could should or could go more than a point down
10:13
Speaker 1: more than one hundred.
10:14
Speaker 3: Base I've been consistently saying, in fact, I think I've
10:17
Speaker 3: been saying to you, amongst others, I've been consistently saying
10:20
Speaker 3: that they'll settle it about four and a half percent,
10:23
Speaker 3: you know, sort of one or two year rates. And
10:26
Speaker 3: the reason I've said that is because that's the long
10:28
Speaker 3: run average about the last twenty years. But I'll tell
10:31
Speaker 3: you what, looking looking at what's been happening over the
10:33
Speaker 3: last couple of months and looking at where the trajectory
10:36
Speaker 3: seems to go, might even go lower than that, but
10:38
Speaker 3: it could take a yearry lower than what lower than
10:41
Speaker 3: four and a half?
10:43
Speaker 1: What is what is the optimen for you? I mean
10:46
Speaker 1: again that's all subjective stuff. Isn't it the optimum?
10:50
Speaker 3: The optimus where they were in twenty twenty one? But
10:51
Speaker 3: that's not going to happen again.
10:54
Speaker 1: Well, actually, that's an interesting point because is it really
10:57
Speaker 1: an optimum? Because it might be if interest rates are cheap,
11:01
Speaker 1: it means if you own property and you're looking to
11:03
Speaker 1: sell it, property prices are going to go through the roof.
11:05
Speaker 1: But in terms of an equilibrium between buyers and sellers
11:07
Speaker 1: and people being able to afford to get in and
11:09
Speaker 1: the amount of cash that's held up in it, I
11:12
Speaker 1: don't know if that fell optimum to me.
11:15
Speaker 3: Seriously, that statement presupposes a lot of stuff.
11:18
Speaker 1: Of course, I haven't thought it out too carefully.
11:21
Speaker 3: Presupposes, for example, that there's some ideal price at which
11:24
Speaker 3: property should sell, and you know, if that exists, it
11:27
Speaker 3: certainly hasn't existed in this country for the last forty years.
11:29
Speaker 3: And it also presupposes that somehow house price inflation is bad,
11:32
Speaker 3: and that's just a proposition. I would absolutely argue house
11:35
Speaker 3: price inflation has been extraordinarily good for this country over
11:39
Speaker 3: the last forty years. And the only caveat to that
11:42
Speaker 3: would be if somebody said to me, yes, that's fine
11:44
Speaker 3: for you, but poor old first home buyers have missed out,
11:47
Speaker 3: except the evidence demonstrates that they haven't. For the last
11:50
Speaker 3: one hundred years, house price ownership in this country has
11:53
Speaker 3: stayed stubbornly at an average of about sixty five percent.
11:56
Speaker 3: So the only reason you would argue against house price
11:59
Speaker 3: inflation isn't born out.
12:02
Speaker 1: Okay, I've got an argument that I think is not
12:05
Speaker 1: a bad one, and that is I think that house
12:10
Speaker 1: prices should always be such that you could anticipate paying
12:16
Speaker 1: off the principle in the course of you know, twenty
12:20
Speaker 1: twenty five years or whatever. And if and if it
12:24
Speaker 1: gets because of house prices went bonkers, and I know you're,
12:27
Speaker 1: you know, the free market thing, you'd be while all
12:29
Speaker 1: these things always have a way of balancing out. I
12:31
Speaker 1: think the idea that you would never pay off your
12:34
Speaker 1: loan because money is so cheap that it's that you're
12:38
Speaker 1: sort of a tenant in a way. You know what
12:39
Speaker 1: I mean. Imagine if interest rates were one percent and
12:41
Speaker 1: house right rights went through the roof, there'd be people
12:44
Speaker 1: buying houses who would never imagine they could ever ever
12:47
Speaker 1: pay it off.
12:49
Speaker 3: Let me so, let me give two answers to that.
12:50
Speaker 1: And that's not a bad crack. Come on, give me some.
12:53
Speaker 3: Cred Let me give two answers to it. Firstly, let's
12:56
Speaker 3: assume that was true. Yeah, the cost of owning a home,
13:00
Speaker 3: if you take account of average house prices, average mortgage rates,
13:04
Speaker 3: and average salaries, has actually been reducing over the last
13:07
Speaker 3: thirty five years. It's got lower, not higher, So that
13:11
Speaker 3: equation has got moved in favor of first home buyers,
13:14
Speaker 3: not against them. But more importantly, let's say we agreed
13:17
Speaker 3: that was actually something that we should do. Tim how
13:20
Speaker 3: would you do it?
13:22
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm trying to manipulate it.
13:24
Speaker 3: How would you do?
13:25
Speaker 2: Well?
13:25
Speaker 5: No?
13:25
Speaker 1: What well? I'm just saying that that's an argument against
13:28
Speaker 1: ridiculously cheap money, because it might. I know, the market
13:33
Speaker 1: has a way of finding it's some sort of equilibrium
13:35
Speaker 1: where there's a balance in the end.
13:37
Speaker 3: By the way, remember that when the reserve banks moving
13:39
Speaker 3: down the cost of money. It's not doing it in
13:41
Speaker 3: difference to the property market. It's doing it to the
13:43
Speaker 3: overall economy. So when it's pushing the cost of money
13:46
Speaker 3: up or the cost of money down, it's looking at
13:48
Speaker 3: the overall economy and the impact of high or low
13:50
Speaker 3: inflation on the economy overall. It's not looking at the
13:53
Speaker 3: market and saying, Okay, now it's time to raise house
13:55
Speaker 3: prices for homeowners. That's not their rationale.
13:57
Speaker 1: Okay, well look we want your calls. Hundred eighty ten
14:00
Speaker 1: and eighty inflation numbers are released this week. They're down
14:03
Speaker 1: from three point three to two point two percent. There's
14:06
Speaker 1: calls on the Reserve Bank, on sorry, the Reserve Bank governor,
14:09
Speaker 1: to keep pushing the cash rate down. So is now
14:13
Speaker 1: the time to buy? Is this something which makes you think,
14:16
Speaker 1: you know what? I better dust off my calculator on
14:18
Speaker 1: my spreadsheet and have a think about how much I
14:21
Speaker 1: can borrow and how much I'm prepared to pay on
14:22
Speaker 1: what my plan is. Eight hundred eighty ten and eighty
14:25
Speaker 1: text nine to nine two. My guest is Ashley Church
14:28
Speaker 1: will be back in just a moment. News talks. He'd
14:30
Speaker 1: be news talks, he'd be yes my Tim Beverage. My
14:32
Speaker 1: guest is Ashley Church. We're asking, well inflations now within
14:36
Speaker 1: the band, does it mean for the property to market
14:38
Speaker 1: and is now the time to buy or at least
14:39
Speaker 1: start thinking about it? Eight hundred and eighty ten and
14:41
Speaker 1: eighty Mark, Hello.
14:44
Speaker 6: Something guys are going good good. Yeah, just sort of
14:49
Speaker 6: goes to your prediction or your sort of theory on
14:55
Speaker 6: the house process having over every sort of ten years. Actually,
14:58
Speaker 6: do you think it's likely to continue?
15:02
Speaker 3: No, that's a good question make so the answer is yes,
15:04
Speaker 3: but slower. It's interesting I did some numbers on this
15:07
Speaker 3: a couple of years back. I've been doing a presentation
15:09
Speaker 3: on it, and it demonstrates because that's because that's a mantra.
15:12
Speaker 3: It's a mantra that property investors have that property is
15:14
Speaker 3: going to double in value. So I actually had a
15:16
Speaker 3: look and it bears out absolutely in eighty nineteen ninety
15:20
Speaker 3: to two thousand and two thousand to twenty ten, but
15:23
Speaker 3: in twenty ten to as it happens twenty and twenty one,
15:26
Speaker 3: it actually took twelve years. It actually took a little
15:28
Speaker 3: bit longer, and I suspect that's simply a feature of
15:30
Speaker 3: the fact that house prices are more expensive now, so
15:34
Speaker 3: if you extrapolate that out, my prediction is that it's
15:36
Speaker 3: going to take a little bit longer each decade. So
15:37
Speaker 3: the next decade it might take thirteen or fourteen years
15:39
Speaker 3: to double rather than ten, but they will still double eventually.
15:44
Speaker 6: Do you think that you'll get to a stage where
15:46
Speaker 6: that will not be the case because people won't I think.
15:50
Speaker 3: In term, might be alive when that happens. That'll be
15:52
Speaker 3: sometime in two thousand, twenty and sixties, so and that'll
15:55
Speaker 3: be you know, and.
15:56
Speaker 1: I'm planning on still being alive there, Thanks for very much.
15:58
Speaker 3: Apart from sorry I should. It will happen so gradually
16:02
Speaker 3: we won't notice it, all.
16:04
Speaker 6: Right, No, good good things?
16:07
Speaker 1: Why does that mark? Why do you ask? Is this
16:09
Speaker 1: because you're thinking of dipping into the game or.
16:12
Speaker 7: Oh no, you are already am And.
16:17
Speaker 6: From my experience particularly has kind of over last well
16:21
Speaker 6: I've been in the game for the last sort of
16:22
Speaker 6: fifteen twenty years, so but you're just in terms of
16:25
Speaker 6: looking at where it's lucky to go for our children
16:29
Speaker 6: in the future, and with incomes not increasing to the extent,
16:35
Speaker 6: it sort of will get to a stage and my
16:38
Speaker 6: thinking where it'll be unachievable for people you know, keeping
16:42
Speaker 6: quite right, and.
16:43
Speaker 1: The question of how long then, and from a common
16:46
Speaker 1: sense mathematical point of view, exponential growth is not sustainable
16:49
Speaker 1: because you know, when you keep doubling, it just becomes
16:52
Speaker 1: so big.
16:53
Speaker 3: Words say, well, yeah, we go.
16:57
Speaker 1: I would think you'd like you'd know that word, wouldn't you?
16:59
Speaker 1: Beat You would have been used to some exponential growth
17:01
Speaker 1: growth in your own property, would have told you how
17:03
Speaker 1: You would have said, what's the word for that? Every
17:05
Speaker 1: time it doubles? And what's what's the word for that?
17:07
Speaker 1: In your account? Would have said, Ashley, you're enjoying exponential growth?
17:10
Speaker 1: And you would have filed that away.
17:14
Speaker 3: Hey, thanks, Mike was a good cool mate.
17:17
Speaker 1: Sorry, it's just been a bit of a smart ass there,
17:19
Speaker 1: but there we go. Fletcher, Hello, good afternoon.
17:25
Speaker 5: I just caught your remark actually before the ad break,
17:29
Speaker 5: that the cost of owning the home relative to income
17:34
Speaker 5: has decreased. I was really encouraged to hear that given
17:38
Speaker 5: last week in the smoker room we were complaining that
17:41
Speaker 5: compared to our parents generation, house prices have increased relative
17:46
Speaker 5: to our parents' income. Could you help run me through that?
17:50
Speaker 3: Indeed, and it's thanks for asking that.
17:52
Speaker 1: So he's wrong.
17:54
Speaker 3: So who's wrong? Mike Peru, Yeah, actually you mean Mike Pierre.
18:00
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, know what he's wrong in this I actually
18:01
Speaker 3: rate Mic, but he's wrong in this case. Let me
18:03
Speaker 3: let me explain why. Now, to be fair, let me
18:05
Speaker 3: put a caveat on that. I'm basing this on where
18:08
Speaker 3: house prices and interest rates and average incomes got to
18:11
Speaker 3: in the mid eighties. So in the mid eighties, if
18:15
Speaker 3: you took the average household income and the average household price,
18:21
Speaker 3: and where what interest rates were tracking at, which is
18:23
Speaker 3: about twenty one percent in the mid eighties, then the
18:26
Speaker 3: cost of servicing a mortgage based on those three figures
18:30
Speaker 3: was about fifty five percent of income, sorry, fifty two
18:33
Speaker 3: percent of income. In other words, it took fifty two
18:36
Speaker 3: percent you take home and come to actually service that mortgage.
18:39
Speaker 3: Because and this is the media always miss out because
18:41
Speaker 3: it doesn't suit their argument. Because over the intervening thirty
18:44
Speaker 3: five or forty years, interest rates came down from that
18:47
Speaker 3: twenty one percent, even though house prices increased, and even
18:51
Speaker 3: though interest even though wages didn't go up at the
18:53
Speaker 3: same rate. By twenty and eighteen twenty nineteen, it was
18:57
Speaker 3: taking thirty five percent of the household in to service
19:00
Speaker 3: the same mortgage on the If you talk the averages,
19:02
Speaker 3: it's still in twenty and eighteen average household and come
19:05
Speaker 3: average household's price and cost of interest at that stage.
19:09
Speaker 3: So what that tells us is you don't look at
19:11
Speaker 3: the headline numbers, look at the overall impact on a household.
19:14
Speaker 3: It dropped from fifty two percent to thirty five percent now.
19:17
Speaker 3: To be fear that will have gone up again over
19:19
Speaker 3: the last few years, certainly in twenty twenty one, but
19:22
Speaker 3: it still hasn't got as high as that fifty two
19:23
Speaker 3: percent in the mid eighties. So it's definitely cheaper for
19:26
Speaker 3: people buying a house now than it was for the appearance.
19:31
Speaker 5: Excellent, Thank you, I appreciate that.
19:33
Speaker 1: Right, good on your thanks for echer Even in that
19:37
Speaker 1: you know, the twenty percent hard and how long? How
19:39
Speaker 1: long do we have that twenty percent inchest rates? You
19:40
Speaker 1: know that ridiculous time.
19:41
Speaker 3: What was early came slowly, it came down. I think
19:44
Speaker 3: they were still on cook quite high by the early
19:46
Speaker 3: early to mid nineties. They slowly came down. I think
19:49
Speaker 3: we got down to about sort of five and a
19:50
Speaker 3: half percent, both toward the end of the nineties, but
19:52
Speaker 3: prior to that, it took a long time for them
19:54
Speaker 3: to come down. And that's because we were doing the
19:55
Speaker 3: same thing we're doing now. We were trying to get
19:57
Speaker 3: rapid inflation under control.
19:58
Speaker 1: Ye, because I remember talking to an old old a
20:00
Speaker 1: friend who said she bought her house in north Shore
20:03
Speaker 1: or something for about one hundred and eighty thousand dollars,
20:05
Speaker 1: and I said, like, what a bargain, And she said, well,
20:07
Speaker 1: my interest rate was twenty percent, And I was thinking
20:09
Speaker 1: back then how much her payments were compared to the
20:13
Speaker 1: medium wage, and that was a blooming fortune.
20:16
Speaker 3: It's interesting because whenever the media focus on this particular topic,
20:19
Speaker 3: as they do periodically, they always leave out the that
20:21
Speaker 3: third part of the equation, the interest rates, because that
20:23
Speaker 3: doesn't suit the argument.
20:25
Speaker 1: Yes, but that's just that's you getting active and political
20:29
Speaker 1: then too. Actually it gets your hackles up. But those cheap,
20:32
Speaker 1: those cheap statistical half shots, ay, aren't they when people
20:37
Speaker 1: came here anyway? Right, let's cary on. We've got plenty
20:40
Speaker 1: of calls to get to Steve Hello.
20:42
Speaker 4: Kill Steve, Yeah, yeah, I can't recall those high interest
20:48
Speaker 4: rates hanging around for long, you know. That's the thing.
20:51
Speaker 4: Everyone talks about them as though they were there for
20:53
Speaker 4: a lot, but they didn't. They seem to peak and
20:55
Speaker 4: then it came down pretty quick. But also because the.
20:59
Speaker 8: Living was high, it wasn't cost the living wasn't as
21:02
Speaker 8: high with everything else, was it, you know, all the
21:05
Speaker 8: non tradable I mean electricity relative to income or all
21:09
Speaker 8: the other food relative income was it was a lot cheaper.
21:13
Speaker 3: You're missing them, You're missing the state now, yeah, yeah,
21:16
Speaker 3: you're missing the point though, Steve. It's it's what was
21:19
Speaker 3: it costing to service a mortgage relative to the total
21:22
Speaker 3: house price and total household income? And it was fifty
21:25
Speaker 3: two percent, So that other stuff doesn't matter. It doesn't
21:27
Speaker 3: matter whether the cost of living was half what it
21:29
Speaker 3: was now, it's what was the what was the cost
21:31
Speaker 3: of servicing a mortgage? And it's dropped from fifty two
21:34
Speaker 3: to as I say, in twenty eighteen, about thirty five,
21:37
Speaker 3: So those other figures aren't relevant. What matters is what
21:40
Speaker 3: proportion of your income it took the service your mortgage
21:42
Speaker 3: and that's dropped that.
21:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, for you have to take all that into account anyway,
21:47
Speaker 4: But look through a whole lot of other factors, other
21:48
Speaker 4: interest rates that are going to affect the property prices
21:51
Speaker 4: going forward. Right, And you're missing those points, you know,
21:54
Speaker 4: it's all this fan that interest rates you miss. You're missing.
21:57
Speaker 4: You're missing a couple of important points, mate Resource Management
22:00
Speaker 4: Act changes right, lower birth rates, the Unitary Plan, high
22:04
Speaker 4: in density housing which means more supply, foreign investors can't
22:09
Speaker 4: buy here. Right. And then you've got you know, very
22:13
Speaker 4: very low migration levels, which I think are the probably
22:17
Speaker 4: most important thing with the country's never done well economically
22:21
Speaker 4: without a lot of people coming in the door, right,
22:25
Speaker 4: like one hundred thousand a year into Auckland. Yes, that
22:28
Speaker 4: gets things pumping, but we're not going to we're not
22:30
Speaker 4: seeing that now. There might be more people leaving next
22:33
Speaker 4: year than coming into the country.
22:36
Speaker 3: Okay, so let me have a huge impassion, so let
22:40
Speaker 3: me answer. So with all your respect, I'm not missing
22:41
Speaker 3: any of those And if you've listened to me over
22:43
Speaker 3: the last few years, you'll know that probably seven or
22:45
Speaker 3: eight years ago, I would have agreed with you that
22:47
Speaker 3: those things were big factors. I've come based on data,
22:51
Speaker 3: and I talk about a lot on the show. I've
22:53
Speaker 3: come very clearly to the conclusion that all of those
22:55
Speaker 3: things you mentioned maybe at about ten percent either way
22:59
Speaker 3: on house prices, A vast majority of the impact on
23:02
Speaker 3: house price growth or decline in this country is the
23:05
Speaker 3: cost of money. And that's just empirical. You can't that's
23:07
Speaker 3: not even disputable. Now, that's just a very very clear evidence.
23:10
Speaker 4: So while I take the people don't want to get
23:13
Speaker 4: you're still.
23:15
Speaker 1: Steve, just let Astley finish the yep to sound you carry.
23:19
Speaker 3: It makes absolutely no difference. If you track what's happened
23:22
Speaker 3: to house prices over the last four decades, you'll see
23:25
Speaker 3: that they have that those house price increases don't track
23:28
Speaker 3: at all in relation to population or any of those
23:31
Speaker 3: other things that you're talking about. The driving influence of
23:34
Speaker 3: house price growth or house price decline is the cost
23:37
Speaker 3: of money. That's an empirical fact. So all of that
23:39
Speaker 3: other stuff. I understand why instinctively you might think that
23:42
Speaker 3: would be the case, because it just seems logical to
23:44
Speaker 3: the mind. But when you look at the data, it
23:46
Speaker 3: tells you that there's not the case. House price growth
23:49
Speaker 3: will go up if the cost of money comes down.
23:51
Speaker 3: Won't matter what happens with inflation, and it won't matter
23:54
Speaker 3: what happened, sorry with immigration. And in fact, when you
23:58
Speaker 3: look at when we had a massive spike of hand
24:00
Speaker 3: us price growth in the eighties and again in the nineties,
24:02
Speaker 3: they were both during periods where we had virtually no
24:05
Speaker 3: immigration growth. So that's simply not a fact.
24:07
Speaker 1: Can can I just jump in and ask ninety if.
24:09
Speaker 4: We had a massive immigration you know, the Chinese factor
24:12
Speaker 4: I think was huge in this country. They bought, they
24:17
Speaker 4: brought up large central Auckland, and it reverberate like throwing
24:21
Speaker 4: a little stone into.
24:22
Speaker 3: A pond of water, Buying into it made no difference,
24:28
Speaker 3: huge different That's great.
24:31
Speaker 1: I love a good argument, But Steve, what.
24:33
Speaker 4: Are you getting that now? That migration and it's going
24:35
Speaker 4: to effect her in and I think we're going to
24:37
Speaker 4: see if we got the static population and we don't
24:41
Speaker 4: get the growth that we've had, I think it's going
24:43
Speaker 4: to be very They're going to have the impact. It's
24:47
Speaker 4: going to happen.
24:47
Speaker 3: If you're not saying I'm sorry, you're not right, and
24:49
Speaker 3: let me just take your little pet there, which is
24:51
Speaker 3: the Chinese thing.
24:55
Speaker 1: One at a time?
24:57
Speaker 3: You raised it's to let me answer it. You're quoting here,
24:59
Speaker 3: you're trying to claim that the that the foreign investment
25:02
Speaker 3: was a big factor on house prices. The Labor government
25:05
Speaker 3: actually introduced a foreign buyers ban directly as a result
25:09
Speaker 3: of the belief on the on the left hand side
25:11
Speaker 3: of the political spectrum that somehow immigration and foreign buyers
25:15
Speaker 3: were causing a spoken house prices. It made no difference
25:20
Speaker 3: whatsoever to house price growth, not not a dot of
25:23
Speaker 3: difference was made to house price growth as a result
25:25
Speaker 3: of that ban. It carried on doing what he was
25:27
Speaker 3: doing White because the cost of money was coming down.
25:30
Speaker 3: It had nothing to do with immigration, it had nothing
25:32
Speaker 3: to do with foreign buyers. That's a medium mantra that
25:35
Speaker 3: what that proved not to be true.
25:37
Speaker 4: Lucky last time we had we had newly mentored. We
25:43
Speaker 4: got the argument on that and.
25:44
Speaker 1: It was, yeah, but cheap money probably make Okay, Okay, Steve,
25:49
Speaker 1: what do.
25:50
Speaker 8: You think hold no hold on hold economy?
25:53
Speaker 1: Okay? I was going to ask Steve what his prediction
25:56
Speaker 1: was for the market, actually, but I think he's used
25:57
Speaker 1: up as used up all his bullets there. Right.
26:00
Speaker 3: Look, look, I understand, I understand Steve's point, but because
26:03
Speaker 3: the media has feed us the stuff.
26:04
Speaker 1: So he was saying that those those even though they
26:07
Speaker 1: stopped the immigration. There was a lot of Chinese money
26:09
Speaker 1: in the country and stuff, and yeah it.
26:11
Speaker 3: Was so the only Chinese money there was. And this
26:13
Speaker 3: is this is this is an important thing to understand. So, yes,
26:15
Speaker 3: that were the Chinese people in our Asians and auction
26:19
Speaker 3: rooms buying property. Absolutely there were. They were Kiwis. They
26:22
Speaker 3: were people that were naturalized and were part of this
26:24
Speaker 3: country and had as much right to buy as anybody else.
26:26
Speaker 3: But that's not what the Foreign Buyers Band was designed
26:28
Speaker 3: to address. The Foreign Buyers Band was saying that there
26:30
Speaker 3: was this foreign money coming in and it was buying properly,
26:32
Speaker 3: and then they were taking off back to China after buying.
26:34
Speaker 3: That that proved not to be true.
26:35
Speaker 1: I understand, Yeah, that's good you've I think we will
26:39
Speaker 1: move on because there was a good ding dong that
26:41
Speaker 1: wasn't it? Actually you like it? Kid?
26:44
Speaker 3: Why didn't you? I kind of prefer those calls, But.
26:47
Speaker 1: He does so call against Steve just not this hour,
26:51
Speaker 1: right and at Colin, Hello.
26:58
Speaker 7: Bo, he just listening with interest to hear you're begging
27:02
Speaker 7: Adrian all a bit without the interest rates going up
27:05
Speaker 7: on that. But tell me where did the banks get
27:09
Speaker 7: their money from to leand to New Zealanders to buy
27:12
Speaker 7: their houses.
27:13
Speaker 6: Is it overseas?
27:15
Speaker 3: They get it from a variety of different sources, and interestingly,
27:18
Speaker 3: not much of it comes from the Reserve Bank. They
27:20
Speaker 3: get most of it from official sources, which is why
27:22
Speaker 3: it's interesting that the OCR is such a big indicator
27:25
Speaker 3: of what's going to happen to the cost of money.
27:27
Speaker 4: And so.
27:30
Speaker 3: I'm just going to make it before which is which
27:33
Speaker 3: is then over the last couple of years in particular,
27:36
Speaker 3: banks have actually been borrowing it more favorable terms than
27:39
Speaker 3: they had been previously, So they've actually had the ability
27:41
Speaker 3: to drop mortgage rates earlier than they did, and so
27:45
Speaker 3: the artificial constraint of the OCR has actually allowed them,
27:47
Speaker 3: in my view, to profit at the expense of the
27:49
Speaker 3: poor old New Zealand mortgage player.
27:51
Speaker 1: What did you want to add, Colin?
27:53
Speaker 7: Okay, what I wanted to make a point was there,
27:56
Speaker 7: So they've got to borrow the bulk of their money
27:59
Speaker 7: from overseas. Is that correct or not?
28:01
Speaker 8: Yes?
28:02
Speaker 7: So generally it is you yeah, okay, So why does
28:05
Speaker 7: Adrian or have so much influence? Isn't it overseas rates?
28:10
Speaker 7: You put out ten year born yield against the US
28:13
Speaker 7: and we follow them, so you can beg him, but
28:17
Speaker 7: we're awater on that of the world.
28:20
Speaker 3: Okay, And I actually agree with you. That's the point
28:22
Speaker 3: actually just made before you ask your question. So the
28:24
Speaker 3: point I'm making is that they have actually been borrowing
28:26
Speaker 3: at lower rates and they did have the ability. The
28:27
Speaker 3: problem is in fenness to them, and you know, not
28:30
Speaker 3: always better them. But the problem is in phenis to
28:32
Speaker 3: the banks. If they had done that, then all he
28:34
Speaker 3: would have done was put the O cra ever higher
28:36
Speaker 3: and he would have found another way to penalize the banks.
28:38
Speaker 3: So and the banks know that. So the purpose of
28:41
Speaker 3: the OCR is to send a message to the banks
28:43
Speaker 3: to say, this is where I want rates to be,
28:46
Speaker 3: and if you drop them lower than that, I'm going
28:48
Speaker 3: to find another way of basically making sure that those
28:50
Speaker 3: rates stay high. But you're absolutely correct that.
28:54
Speaker 7: Exactly it's overseas that determined basically determine what rates we have,
28:59
Speaker 7: not ourselves.
29:01
Speaker 3: We're simple what that means. And this is the bit
29:04
Speaker 3: I get a bit of sense about what that means
29:06
Speaker 3: is that the Australi because they are mostly Australian, the
29:08
Speaker 3: Australian banks have basically been properly off the poor ol
29:11
Speaker 3: kiw for the last two or three years because they've
29:12
Speaker 3: been paying a lot less for money than they're charging
29:14
Speaker 3: on to us.
29:15
Speaker 1: Right, we need to take a break. This is great. Actually,
29:19
Speaker 1: you're provoking a few people with some strong opinions and
29:21
Speaker 1: that's the way we love it. This is the one
29:23
Speaker 1: with radio show. We'll be back in just the ticket's
29:25
Speaker 1: twenty one minutes to five. Ruber Jamaica.
29:33
Speaker 8: Jo.
29:39
Speaker 1: I do love this song. But we've got callers that
29:41
Speaker 1: mounted up for our topic we are talking about that. Well,
29:45
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where we've gone with the topic, but
29:47
Speaker 1: my guest is Ashley Church, and it's just what's inflation
29:51
Speaker 1: coming down going to mean for the market? Taking your calls,
29:55
Speaker 1: somebody a couple of texts for you, actually, one is
29:59
Speaker 1: one says it's revolting, how it's revolting, how biased Ashley
30:04
Speaker 1: churches in favor of property. I'm not sure if it's
30:07
Speaker 1: satirical that text or just just.
30:11
Speaker 3: Well it's a word I use a lot, so I'm
30:13
Speaker 3: imagining they're probably using in a sarcastic way and fair
30:16
Speaker 3: enough too. It's a good good job, I'll give them that.
30:19
Speaker 1: And another one says a nice yachting term. There great
30:23
Speaker 1: guest as Ashley holds his own great show as per
30:26
Speaker 1: So there's a couple there. We've got one positive and
30:28
Speaker 1: one in favor. Let's take some more calls.
30:31
Speaker 5: Eight H.
30:32
Speaker 1: Hamer Shallow get.
30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get a Ashley.
30:39
Speaker 5: Yeah.
30:39
Speaker 2: I really liked your comments around you know, just the
30:45
Speaker 2: analysis around how things revolve in the future, and you know,
30:51
Speaker 2: specifically around the cost of money. And I think, you know,
30:57
Speaker 2: in terms of property, a lot of people aren't quite
31:01
Speaker 2: clear about the cost of holding the property as well.
31:05
Speaker 2: But I don't want to get into foods. On the
31:08
Speaker 2: next subject, well, there's just the banks here in New Zealand.
31:16
Speaker 2: I had I've put a bank in background abroad and yeah,
31:23
Speaker 2: I find it quite fascinating that they get away with
31:29
Speaker 2: what they get away with.
31:31
Speaker 1: You know, you don't trust the bank famous.
31:35
Speaker 6: Not.
31:36
Speaker 2: I just know the you know, you know, things like
31:39
Speaker 2: carry trades and just literally what they borrow at and
31:44
Speaker 2: then yeah they do interest rates swaps and then lock
31:49
Speaker 2: it and then you know, and it's not it's not
31:52
Speaker 2: New Zealand's you know, community people putting money in the
32:00
Speaker 2: back and whether it be aim Z or.
32:04
Speaker 1: What do you think? What do you think is going
32:06
Speaker 1: to happen with the market. What's your take on inflation
32:08
Speaker 1: coming down and where the market's movement's going to ahead?
32:12
Speaker 2: I think, you know, yeah, I think i'd agree with
32:17
Speaker 2: your colleague on the show one. As you know, the
32:23
Speaker 2: cost of money comes down, the prices will become firmer.
32:30
Speaker 7: And yeah, okay, you know you go.
32:33
Speaker 2: Through a series of ups and downs and we're just
32:36
Speaker 2: a bit of a point of down at the moment.
32:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough, Thanks so much. Actually, I thought I
32:42
Speaker 1: was quite pleased that you made that point talking about Ashley,
32:45
Speaker 1: about how everyone assumed it was frying bars and everything,
32:48
Speaker 1: and yet the phenomenon of house prices went through the
32:50
Speaker 1: roof when simply you made it cheaper.
32:52
Speaker 3: Absolutely by the way you handled that call, well, I
32:54
Speaker 3: thought you should do this for a living.
32:56
Speaker 1: Oh well, I'll give it some thought. I'm just about
32:59
Speaker 1: off my intern ship.
33:04
Speaker 3: The foreign buyer thing, You're right, I mean, and I
33:06
Speaker 3: have to plug that constantly, because there's just this natural
33:08
Speaker 3: thing to think government put in place of foreign buyer's band.
33:10
Speaker 3: Surely that worked. It didn't make no difference about serving
33:13
Speaker 3: US prices.
33:14
Speaker 2: Right.
33:14
Speaker 1: Let's take another one, Ryan High.
33:17
Speaker 9: Hi, gentlemen, love a good spirited conversation on a Saturday afternoon.
33:23
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, what I'd like to.
33:26
Speaker 6: Throw on the mix.
33:27
Speaker 9: I think his name was Steve the caller caller a
33:29
Speaker 9: few minutes ago, just to throw some fuel on the fire. Maybe. Actually,
33:34
Speaker 9: you've mentioned that the correlation between interest rates and house
33:38
Speaker 9: price growth is probably the greatest determining factor to increasing
33:43
Speaker 9: prices or decreasing prices. Now, what I'd like to know
33:49
Speaker 9: is the government has intervened in many ways in the
33:51
Speaker 9: last decades and this, yeah, I think it was July
33:55
Speaker 9: the first they instigated the debt to.
33:57
Speaker 6: Income rass year.
33:58
Speaker 9: Yes, And what I'm interested in is it's also dubtails
34:02
Speaker 9: into houses doubling every ten years or maybe eleven or
34:06
Speaker 9: twelve as it extends out going forward. But if income
34:11
Speaker 9: growth is going at about maybe four five percent pandum,
34:15
Speaker 9: I think that's the stat I heard, how is house
34:18
Speaker 9: price price growth likely to still double in eleven or
34:23
Speaker 9: twelve years time? It's mortgages are the biggest determining factors
34:28
Speaker 9: to house price price growth.
34:30
Speaker 3: It's a very stuid question, and I'm glad you asked it.
34:32
Speaker 3: So the first answer to that question is it won't
34:35
Speaker 3: have nearly as much impact on people who've been in
34:37
Speaker 3: the market for a long time, and I've got established
34:39
Speaker 3: equity and have got in coming off of that income
34:41
Speaker 3: coming off that. So the people who will suffer from
34:43
Speaker 3: it most are first time buyers, no doubt that in
34:46
Speaker 3: mine in the same way that the first time buyers
34:48
Speaker 3: are the people who suffer most from the from the lvas,
34:51
Speaker 3: the learn to value atiare restrictions, and I'm on record
34:54
Speaker 3: I think on the show and other forums over the
34:56
Speaker 3: last sort of six to eight months of saying I
34:58
Speaker 3: think that the debt to income ratio are the single
35:01
Speaker 3: biggest obstacle to first home buyers in the market that's
35:05
Speaker 3: ever been introduced, so much so that I'm predicting that
35:09
Speaker 3: they will be either removed or substantially reformed within three
35:13
Speaker 3: to four years because they will, You're absolutely right. They
35:16
Speaker 3: will have a detrimental effect on first home buyers and
35:20
Speaker 3: that will directly impact on their ability to afford to mortgage.
35:24
Speaker 3: You know, if you're in Auckland, you've got a household
35:26
Speaker 3: income of you know, one hundred and fifty thousand and
35:29
Speaker 3: the debt to income ratio seven, you know, good luck
35:32
Speaker 3: buying a house for that price. That's just not going
35:34
Speaker 3: to happen, so you're completely correct, it's going to have
35:37
Speaker 3: an impact.
35:39
Speaker 1: Hey, thanks so much for your core Ran. We'll be
35:41
Speaker 1: back in just a moment. The property of the week,
35:43
Speaker 1: by the way, the one property of the week as
35:45
Speaker 1: an absolute ripper, and there's a clue in its price.
35:50
Speaker 1: You might want to win that power ball tonight and
35:52
Speaker 1: not split it. But we'll be back in just a moment.
35:55
Speaker 1: This is news Talk said be One Roof Radio Show
35:57
Speaker 1: eleven minutes to five. Yes, and welcome back to the
36:01
Speaker 1: One Roof Radio Show. It is now eight minutes to five.
36:06
Speaker 1: The one roof Property of the week on the Weekend Collective, Yes,
36:11
Speaker 1: and the one roof property of the week of interest
36:12
Speaker 1: in National Church's take on this. But it is an
36:15
Speaker 1: absolute ripper, but it is slightly themed on the fact
36:18
Speaker 1: that I think it's a twenty six million dollars for powerball,
36:21
Speaker 1: and I think from the research we've done, the estimate
36:24
Speaker 1: of value for this property is twenty four million. So
36:28
Speaker 1: if you are in the market for twenty four million
36:29
Speaker 1: dollar house, then pay attention. And if you're not just
36:32
Speaker 1: going to have a nosey on the one roof site,
36:34
Speaker 1: it is thirty three Arnie Crescent. That is arn Y Crescent, Remuerra.
36:41
Speaker 1: I've had a bit of a trawl around and it
36:43
Speaker 1: is absolutely immaculate, beautiful house with a great outdoor eight
36:48
Speaker 1: outdoor into look, why would it not of outdoor entertainment,
36:52
Speaker 1: you'd expect to have pretty much everything. It is a
36:55
Speaker 1: spectacular house. I'm just looking for the property description because
36:59
Speaker 1: I'm on the wrong. Here we go. It's a newly relevated,
37:02
Speaker 1: renovated Georgian home. It sits on, of course, one of
37:05
Speaker 1: the most prestigious streets, within a double grammar zone. Originally
37:10
Speaker 1: designed in the eighteen eighties, so even though it's absolutely
37:14
Speaker 1: mint beautiful house, it originally goes back over one hundred
37:18
Speaker 1: years and it's actually, what do you make of it?
37:21
Speaker 1: Swimming pool, seven bathrooms, six bedrooms, four car garage.
37:26
Speaker 3: Absolutely stunning, I have to say, because I've trowled through
37:28
Speaker 3: the photograph as you do, I got library envy, because,
37:31
Speaker 3: as you know, I like my libraries, and this has
37:33
Speaker 3: got an amazing library. It goes. It covers at least
37:37
Speaker 3: three walls and possibly four because of the camera angle.
37:40
Speaker 3: But I did have one criticism of it, and there
37:42
Speaker 3: is that I don't know anybody who has books that
37:44
Speaker 3: are that straight, they're perfectly aligned.
37:46
Speaker 1: If you don't have a look in your know, I
37:48
Speaker 1: know I'm in the library. Look, actually, I have a
37:53
Speaker 1: suspicion that that library looks the books look a bit cgi,
37:59
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, all exactly the same height,
38:02
Speaker 1: all perfectly aligned.
38:04
Speaker 3: Which I can tell you from my own library is
38:06
Speaker 3: not the case.
38:06
Speaker 1: And I think that I think that probably those the
38:11
Speaker 1: library the bookshelves are actually empty, would be my guess,
38:15
Speaker 1: or it's a display sort of, you know these are
38:18
Speaker 1: some books because they're all exactly okay, I reckon, Look
38:22
Speaker 1: it looks great. They're all exactly the same height, and nobody. Yeah,
38:26
Speaker 1: I've seen your bookshelf. It's yours is artfully disheveled. Isn't
38:29
Speaker 1: it Boho what they call it? But anyway, look, it's
38:35
Speaker 1: hard to summ up a house like that. I would
38:36
Speaker 1: just encourage people to go in a lot. Yeah, it's
38:41
Speaker 1: you know what. I wonder if it'd just be too
38:43
Speaker 1: much for me. I don't think I'll be able to
38:44
Speaker 1: keep an eye on the kids and know whether they're
38:46
Speaker 1: whether they're on their mobile phones or not.
38:49
Speaker 3: Your media city, you could buy it as an investment.
38:53
Speaker 1: Just as a weekend house. You know, I'll just go
38:56
Speaker 1: there for the weekend anyway, go and check it out.
38:58
Speaker 1: It is absolutely magnificent. We're just looking swimming paul Garden. Actually,
39:02
Speaker 1: the kitchen's the other one. The kitchen one of the photos.
39:05
Speaker 1: It's just a kitchen bench, nothing else. And it shows
39:09
Speaker 1: you how that the kitchen is hidden away and you
39:11
Speaker 1: open everything up and there's the stove and there's everything else.
39:13
Speaker 1: But it's all.
39:14
Speaker 3: It's something, isn't it.
39:15
Speaker 1: It's quite something. Anyway, Hey, Ashley, thank you so much
39:18
Speaker 1: for your time. You'll be pleased. Well, we've got a
39:21
Speaker 1: few people to disagree with.
39:22
Speaker 3: You apologize to Steve and you know, ring back Steve.
39:25
Speaker 3: I'll try to be nice the next time.
39:26
Speaker 1: Somebody's telling me it's Paul Henry's house in the text,
39:29
Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I've been to Paul Henry's house.
39:31
Speaker 1: I don't think he lives in Arney Crescent. But maybe
39:33
Speaker 1: he does. Maybe he's upgraded since I was last there. Anyway,
39:37
Speaker 1: you'll be putting an offerun on that, won't you. No, Okay, okay,
39:42
Speaker 1: well but that means next time you're coming to us
39:45
Speaker 1: on zoom again. Mind you if you were if you
39:49
Speaker 1: were in Auckland and you were in that house, you'd
39:51
Speaker 1: be like, I'm not leaving. I'm still going to be zooming.
39:52
Speaker 1: I don't care for many ten minutes away the beverage. Hey,
39:59
Speaker 1: great to have you on the show and actually look
40:00
Speaker 1: forward to next time. Here we go and you can
40:03
Speaker 1: check out the podcast on the News Talks he Be website,
40:06
Speaker 1: look for the Weekend Collective or on iHeartRadio. The Parents
40:09
Speaker 1: Squat is next. Nathan Wallace joins us to talk about
40:12
Speaker 1: whether we're making parenting harder than it actually needs to be,
40:15
Speaker 1: our parents complicating things for themselves and that includes the
40:18
Speaker 1: whole helicopter parenting thing. Do we need to just you know,
40:21
Speaker 1: step back, chill out as a bit of a chat
40:24
Speaker 1: about that and other things and taking your calls with
40:27
Speaker 1: Nathan Wallace. Next, oh and eighty. This is the News
40:30
Speaker 1: Talks week in Collective. Four minutes to five