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NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Thursday 1/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch hape. Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it off. Boy,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'm really starting to dislike the Drake. I hate the Drake.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with toadstool Sports.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I almost said better off dead it is, whatever day
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: it is, Thursday, January fifteenth, taking the headphones off again,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Let's go feel gotta feel unencumbered, man. As you can tell,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty pissed about yesterday two and three on the show,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: which was not good. Obviously, it was a losing day
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and it could have easily been a winning day if
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: a few things went a little bit differently. Is BU,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: dude a ton of closing line value on that thing?
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Because BU went off as like a four and a
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, so that line skyrocketed on BU. There
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: was a bunch of real money on BU, and they
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: did not even win. They put themselves in a hole early,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: and then they actually got out of it and they
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: were actually winning the game by three late in the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: game and they still blew that. It went into overtime
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: and they lost. Not happy about that, especially just having
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the money line. You don't need to worry about the spread.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: You seem to win that game. I'm not happy obviously.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I believe bu won the rebounding battle in the game,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, and they were just really it
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: was like a three point disparity. That pretty much was
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: the difference in the game. They were I think whoever
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: they were, who are they playing at Lee High? I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: think Lee High? It was like plus five or six
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: and three pointers and that was pretty much it. Not
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: happy about that. We got the cover with Louisiana. That
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: was an ugly low scoring game, just like I thought,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Louisiana was just kind of hanging around in that game.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: They didn't win outright, but they did cover Southern Illinois.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: As I just played that clip for you, that's the
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: one that pissed me off the most by far. And
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: that game was over, dude, Southern Illinois was winning that
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: game by seventeen with like ten minutes left and then
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: they don't even win the game outright, Like, what are
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: you doing? What are you talking about? Yeah, so do
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I hate the Drake? Yeah, you know, I hate the Drake.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened in that game. Southern Illinois
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: was still winning the game by nine with three minutes left,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: so it's like, okay, put it away, maybe you'll get
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: intentionally fouled. Whatever, We're gonna get this done. They only
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: need to win by five and a half. No. I
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: check a little while later and they're losing the game, Like,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: what what even happened? I think that game went into overtime,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: do I have no clue? And then Virginia Tech covered,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: so we got that writers I think a wire to
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: wire cover from Virginia Tech. But they should have won
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: the game outright. They were winning the game by four,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: very ugly, low scoring game. They're winning by four in
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the final minute of the game probably, and they were
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: still winning by I believe one or either one or two.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I guess it was two with pretty much no time left,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: and SMU had to just throw up a hail Mary
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: shot basically the buzzer, and it went in and SMU
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: won the game. So we missed on the money line
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: with Virginia Tech because of that. Because of a prayer
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: three at the buzzer that won the game for SMU ridiculous.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So though at least Virginia Tech covered so the majority
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: of the bet one and then we had Seattle Kraken.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: What else? What can I say about it? It was
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a pretty close game. They got a little bit outplayed.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: They were an underdog, So taking an underdog in that situation,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: they send the game to overtime, and that's not exactly
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: a bad situation, so probably the right call, and that
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: one's still they want up losing the game, you know, overtime.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: But again, if you have the underdog taking it into overtime,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: you gave yourself a chance. Like you probably made the
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: right call there. If we had done the split bet.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I almost went split bet on it, and then that
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: would have been a push and the loss yesterday would
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: not have been as great. Tyson, what's up man? Thanks
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. We move on to today. Today is Thursday,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: so there's a decent chunk of college basketball, but it
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: blows chunks. Thursday is like the the bad college basketball
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: day where the power conferences don't really play. So I'm
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: trying to be really really selective here. I've got one
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: play and I almost made it two or three, but
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be one. And then I have one hockey
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: play and it's it's not the most it's not the
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: most entertaining play, let's just put it that way. So
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: but we're trying to just grind here. We're trying to
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: just have a winning day and that's it. So that's
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: what we're doing. And I'm skipping NBA today. And yes
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I have my Green Monster Pedro Martine has Red Sox
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: jersey on here. I figured I should get like a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: more vintage player on the on the Green Monster one,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: just because they don't have the names on the back,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: so it's just the number. It's the retired numbers. Everybody
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: knows it's Padro. But also it feels like when you
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: go Green Monster, you gotta go more like vintage, go
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: with like history. So and you know, I think he
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: might be the best pitcher in Red Sox history. And
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the way that he did what he did during the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: steroid era in a hitter friendly ballpark against lineups like that. Yeah,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I'm and maybe I'm biased because I got to see
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: him pitch multiple times in person as a kid, but
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. And I got his brother's autocraft Ramone
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Martinez when I was at a Red Sox game out
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: in like the right field corner. Ramone Martinez I think
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: was on the team at the time as an older dude,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: and he was just hanging around in the bullpen. I'm like,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: holy crap, it's Ramon Martinez, Pedro's brother. I asked him
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: for an autograph and he gave it to me. He
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: was not like Larry bird who told me to fuck
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: off and try to get his autograph. Larry bird Man
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the missing Celtic autograph of my Celtics had that has
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: all of his like contemporaries on it. People know the
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: story if they watched my show, Kyle, what's up man?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. All right, let's get into this.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I don't want to take too long here again. If
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: you want me to talk about some games and I'm
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: not as interested, and I could do that. I don't
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: know how many of these games I even really had
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: thoughts on, but we do have. The first game up
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: is Nji and U mass Lowell and you mass loll dude.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: I should follow you mass low Why am I not?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I'm following like all the other Massachusetts schools. Here. It
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: does not highlighting it for me. What U Mass Lowell
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: is obviously the better of these two teams. UMass Lowell
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: is actually off to a three to zero start in
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the American East after they were really bad out of conference.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: They're looking okay in the conference so far, although they
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: faced some real weaklings in the conference so far. And
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: NJT is another one. But UMass Lowell does play Vermont next,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: although it's not for a week and Vermont might be
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the biggest competition in the conference, so we will see
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: possible they overlook NJIT here man UASS Lowell again. They're
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: coming off a winner for Binghamton, but it wasn't a
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: good performance. They barely got by Binghamton and Binghamton is awful,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: like possibly the worst team in this conference. This conference
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: is bad enough, but Binghamton, yeah, they're bad even for
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: this conference. So maybe UMass Lowell will show a little
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: bit more focus after they didn't play well in that game.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: NJT lost at home to Maine. Maine not having a
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: good year after they surprised last year getting to the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: conference championship. But I don't know what to do with
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: this game, man. I probably put more weight into the
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: UMass Lowell look head Spot, and they're not really a
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: team I want to lay points with either. They're down
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half to seven and a half.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I would probably take the points, but I don't want
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: anything to do with this game. The total did drop
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: as well, down to the high one forties, so it's
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: expected to be a fairly ugly game, which I probably
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: agree with as well. All right, looking at some of
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: these other games here, again, a lot of these games
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: just I don't really find that interest. We have American East,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: we have Conference USA, Southern Conference, Sunbelt Horizon all in
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: action today, a Colonial also in action here. Yeah. I
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: don't know what to say about most of these games.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: To me, A lot of these games really are just
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: not interesting. I like to call out the games that
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: are between the good teams and the conferences we don't
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: even really have that many of those, and other games
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: that I just don't really have much of an opinion on.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: All Right, I'll go to a best bet right now,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: because I do have one that's in the somewhat earlier
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: games here. Oh no, wait, this isn't a best bet, dude,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I'm all messed up right now. It's not a best
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: bet never mind, but I will talk about it. I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: almost made this the best bet. It's an almost best bet.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I like Cleveland State against green Bay. Green Bay's Doug
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Gottlieb's coached team right now, he seems like a lunatic whatever.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: He's throwing chairs, but not in a cool way like
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Bobby Knight. I think Green Bay is in a sandwich
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: spot here. They just beat North of Kentucky. That was
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: a nice win for them, it was at green Bay.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Green Bay actually off to a decent start in conference though,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: five and two, so maybe maybe they're not that bad.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: But according to ken Bomb, green Bay is actually a
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: joke like he's got them as the fifteenth luckiest team
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: in the country. So that is indicating something ken Baum
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: is selling you. Green Bay's overperformed quite a bit. Now.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: They're coming up that win over North of Kentucky, which
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: is a pretty good win. They're one of the top
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: teams in the conference a. Green Bay has to go
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: on the road to Cleveland State here and after this
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: they play Oakland, so they play another team that's right
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: with them at the top of the conference. So I
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: think this is a sandwich spot here for them and
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State I mean, yeah, Cleveland State is really bad.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: For sure, They're coming off another loss to Detroit Mercy.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: But Cleveland State has been on the road for three
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: games in a row, so I think it might be
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: good for them to just be back home where they
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: do have their only conference win at home at the
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: very least. And if you want Cleveland State here, you
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: don't need them to win, you see them to cover
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: all of the money. Seems to disagree with me on
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: this one, but I like Cleveland State plus the points.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Green Bay is up from two and a half to three,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: though sixty seven percent of the tickets and ninety four
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. But again I don't
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: agree with it that one. That one almost made my card.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I think it's a sandwich the Green Bay is in.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I don't trust Doug Gottlieb either. Again, Green Bay is
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: very very overrated. Cleveland State very bad though he's in
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: ken Bump's like bottom forty teams in the country, but
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: he does have them as an unluckier team. Although he
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: has Cleveland State is one of the bottom like eleven
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: or twelve defenses, which is not a good sign. So
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State is not the better defense in this matchup.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State does play a bit faster, though, so Green
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Bay plays excessively slow. So it's possible the green that
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State speeds that thing up, and maybe that throws
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Green Bay off of what they want to do a
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: little bit. All Right, we have Elon in Northeastern in
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the Colonials, we get to the seven pm games. Here,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Elon just barely got by Campbell, so that was not
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: a good performance from Elon, so I think they might
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: show up for Northeastern here. But on the other hand,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: they play Hofstra and next at Hofstra is right near
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the top of this conference, so it is possibly a
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot for Elon as well. And this is
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: a second meeting by the way, as well, so once
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: conference play starts going, you got to check be aware
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: of second meetings. My one college basketball player I have
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: today is actually a second meeting. So this one. Elon
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: won by twelve at home against Northeastern already, so that
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: does set up a revenge spot or whatever you want
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: to call it. It's not road revenge, but for Northeastern
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: at the very least. I think what you could say
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: is Northeastern might make adjustments to what went wrong in
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: that first game against Elon, and Elon might overlook them
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: because they already beat them. Northeastern not playing too well.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Northeastern just had an ugly loss to thousand Man. Thousand
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: is not good this year A. Northeastern was playing that
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: game after they played UNC Wilmington to within nine though,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: so Wilmington was a much bigger game for them, so
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it's possible that was a bit of a hangover spot.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: So looking at what's going on in that game, all
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: things be considered, I would lean to Northeastern in that game,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: although the money seems like it doesn't agree with that.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Elon up from one and a half to three and
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: a half, Dude, I should get some Elon drops or something. Obviously,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of Elon's x censorship that's going
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: on here, and everybody thinks, well not everybody, but a
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: lot of people think that he's like a free speech guy.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I'm clearly he's not. He's shadow banning, censoring anybody that
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: well you're not even allowed to say it that speaks
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: out against Israel. Oh no, I don't like any of it,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: but yeah, Elon, I would fade Elon, both in the
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Twitter verse and in this game here, but seventy one
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash on Elon,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Northeastern though in that game. All right,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: And actually my best bet is here, so let's do
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: it the real best bets segment here. It is. There's
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: only one in college basketball. It's an ugly basketball board today, man,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I call it. I call it throw up Thursday because
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: it's the you just get all the vomit inducing like
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: small conferences. Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention we
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: do have an Atlantic Sun and Summit League are both
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: in action as well, So all these small conferences, I'm
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: going to Sun Belton. I'm gonna take Old Dominion plus
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: the points here plus six. I don't think we really
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: saw a market read on this yet. I know the
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: total is high in the one sixties, so that worries
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: me a little bit about taking points because it's expected
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: to be a higher scoring game, which is usually better
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: for the favorite. But we got a situation here where
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I think we're getting the best of it here and
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: we're fading a Georgia Southern team that is not what
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: they really look like here. First of all, who's gonna
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: want to play Old Dominion when they're five and thirteen overall,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern twelve and six, and they just took their
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: first conference loss. Nobody's gonna want Old Dominion. But look
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: at what ken Bom has to say about this. He's
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: got Georgia Southern only two hundred and thirty fourth in
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the country. He has them as the thirty first luckiest
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: team in the country, so he has them way over performing,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: and they've only faced the three hundred and forty third
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, so one of the weakest twenty whatever schedules.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: And he's got Old Dominion right here, only eleven ranking
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: spots behind them. Despite the records making them look way different,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Old Dominions actually face a difficult schedule one hundred and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: thirty second in the country. They're three hundred and fifty
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: third in Kempump's Lucky next to we have a huge
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule disparity and even bigger luck disparity here
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: according to ken Pump, where Old Dominion is way underperformed
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: and they're one of the twelve unluckiest teams in the country.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Old Dominions gonna want to go fast their top one
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: hundred tempo, whereas Georgia Southern also does play fast, though
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: they play even faster actually, so that's why the total
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: is so high. Because it's expected to be a high
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: tempo game. That's fine, but neither team is gonna be
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: thrown off by the temper or whatever. So I'm looking
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: at huge strength of schedule disparity, huge luck disparity. I'm
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: gonna show you the conference schedule in a minute as well,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and there's a big already and strength to schedule there too.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Where Old Dominion has faced more difficult conference opponents so
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: far as well the Georgia Southern has and ken Bumb
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: reflects that too with the strength to schedule. Actually, when
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: he doesn't show conference straight to the schedule, he only
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: shows non con where Old Dominions was thirty fourth and
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southers was three hundred and thirty four. So Old
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Dominion played a way more difficult out of conference schedule.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: But then the other one, the one that I mostly
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: look at, is the strength to schedule net rating, which
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: is the overall strength to schedule. Just so you know
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: what these ken bomb things me and men and c
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: sos is the non conference strength to schedule. Now, one
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: thing is he doesn't really show the conference strength of
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: the schedule, I guess because when teams play in the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: same conference, it's like whatever, their strength of schedule is
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: kind of equivalent. But early in the season, early in
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: conference play, it's not. And I'm gonna show you that
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in a minute that Old Dominion has faced some more
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: difficult conference schedules. Well, george Southern's basically had the easiest
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: conference schedule so far in the Sun Belt. I feel
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: like I'm rambling here, I was gonna say. By Ken Bomb,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like I have to advertise for him a
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: little bit because I keep using his stuff. Don't usually
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: go into his stuff that's behind the paywall though. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: don't like to show that on the show, of course.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it's only like thirty bucks a year for
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: ken Bum. It is worth it. You get all of
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: his advanced college basketball and analytics. Man. But also, if
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: we're looking at the rest of these metrics here, Old
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Dominion has the better defense here too, so they're the
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points. Ken Bom has a two hundred
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: and twenty first defensively Georgia Southern two ninety six, So
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern Southern is the typical, fast paced team that's
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: all offense and no defense. And yes, they have the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: better offense here, but Old Dominion is at least a
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: more balanced team. They're a little bit more defense oriented,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: So I'm fine with that, which is a little bit
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: weird because Old Dominion plays fast. But maybe Old Dominion
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: will actually try to slow the game down a little
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: bit because we know Georgia Southern is gonna want to
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: go even faster, so maybe Old Dominion will try to
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: counter that by muddying the game up a little bit. So,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: as you can see, these teams are not with the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: records indicate. But also if you look at Old Dominion's
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: conference schedule, well, actually it hasn't been that difficult, but
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: they have faced James Madison twice already. I mean, they're
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: not that great this year, though they did already face
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern, which I'm gonna talk about in a second,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: which wasn't easy, and then app State kind of a
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: middling team in the conference. But if you look at
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: so they haven't really faced that difficult of a conference schedule,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: but look at Georgia Southern's conference. Man, the teams that
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: they've beaten were James Madison Coastal Carolina, although I know
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: both teams played Coast of Carolina, West Georgia Old Dominion
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: and then they lost to South Alabama, So they have
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: not really been up against the gauntlet. Man, I know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: or West George is not in the same conference. One
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of my saying West George is actually doing okay in
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the Atlantic Sun. But whatever conference schedules what I wanted
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: to say. So Georgia Southern has faced any of the
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: real legit teams here Troy, Arkansas State Southern Miss Marshall
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: even although, of course, as I showed you, Old Dominion
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't either. But Georgia Southern the first time they went
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: up against a team that's decently competitive, South Alabama, they
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: lost the game. Now that ended a long win streak
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: for Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern had not lost since they
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: lost the UTSA. How long ago was this? Let me see,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at old dude. Why is it showing me
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion schedule? What am I doing here? I want
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern schedule. I apologize, I'm a mess this morning.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I'm all over the place. Yeah. So Georgia Southern had
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: not lost since November twenty fifth in some neutral game
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: against UTSA. So Georgia Southern has gone over a month
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: without losing, and you know, I talk about this when
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: a team hasn't lost in that long and they take
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: a loss, a lot of times it will hang them
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: over into the next game. So I don't like that
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: they only have Coastal Carolina next, which isn't really a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: look ahead. But I think that loss to South Alabama
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: kind of because it ended such a long win streak
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: and it was kind of a big game, I think
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: that might send Georgia Southern a little bit spiraling it
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: to the next game. And this is a road revenge game,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: and a quick road revenge game, because back on January third,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: it's a road revenge game because Georgia Southern went to
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion and beat them ninety three to eighty six
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: at Old Dominion. Now in this game, I don't know
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: what the line was, because, of course, ken excuse, ESPN
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: doesn't show the lines for these historical games up until
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: recently when they redid it with DraftKings. But I think
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion is actually favored in this game, so that
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: should tell you something they meant if Old Dominion was
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: favored at home, and now two weeks later, all of
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: a sudden, there are a six point dog on the road.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: You know you're getting some line value here. That line
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: has moved too much, you gotta think, because if Old
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Dominion was minus three, this line here should probably be
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: like Georgia Southern minus four maybe or so minus six
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: is crazy. And if you look at what happened in
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: this game, I mean Old Dominion shot horribly in the game.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion actually had more possessions in the game. They
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: had nine more field goal attempts in the game, but
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: they only shot thirty nine percent, So they had a
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: horrible shooting game and they pretty much lost the game
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: because of that. Georgia Southern did have five more free
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: throw attempts as well. But yes, Georgia Southern did win
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the rebounding battle, so they did win the more predictive
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: stat there. But even so, I think Georgia Southern might
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: come into this game because they led that game wire
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: to wire. I think they might not take Old Dominion
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: seriously here, man. So that's kind of what you're looking for.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: And you find these road like these revenge spots here,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: these second meetings that plus I think the shooting was
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: an outlier in that first game, and the fact that
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion had more possessions does tell you something at
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: least that they did play a little bit better even
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: though they got out rebounded in the game. So I
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: like all that. I think the shooting was bit of
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: an outlier. Georgia Southern, as we see, doesn't play deepfense,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: so Old Dominion should be able to shoot a little
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: bit better, even though offensively, yeah, they're fairly challenged, they're
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: not that good. But again, because Georgia Southern had such
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: an easy time of it, they could easily overlook Old Dominion.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be Old Dominion that makes the adjustments
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, so for all those reasons, Old
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Dominion is my one play in college basketball here, So
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: hopefully that made sense. I know it was a little
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: bit all over the place with that description there, that analysis.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Speaking of West Georgia, they were this was almost a
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: play for me. West Georgia is playing against stets and
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: now West Georgia is facing a third straight road game,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: which I don't love. But West Georgia just got embarrassed
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: at Jacksonville by thirty two points. Nobody wants to lose
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: by thirty two points. Man only scoring forty three is
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: that's such an ugly game. I think West Virginia is
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: gonna show up like regardless of with their opponent, even
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: if it's a not very good Stetson team. I think
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: they will show up for this. Now the question is
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: will Stetson show up for a West Georgia team. It's
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: three and one in conference, but West george is kind
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of new to Division one. We still don't really know
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: if they're actually any good here because their conference wins
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: are against Bellerman, North Florida and Eastern Kentucky. Is their
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: best conference wins so far, So I don't know West Georgia.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Jury's still out. They're probably not that good, so maybe
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Stetson won't really show up for them. And look at
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: the spot that Stetson is in here. Man, they beat Lipscomb,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: then they tried to put in a performance against Austin
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: p in the next game and they lost by twelve.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: But if look at what happened in this game Stetson,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: they were getting blown out in this game, and I
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: think Austin p took their foot off the gas and
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Stetson came all the way back to within one point
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: late in the game against one of the other better
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: teams in the conference. So Stetson really put in a
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: big effort again. So now they're coming up two monster
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: efforts against the top two teams in the conference basically,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: and they have Queens after this, and Queen's is also
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: undefeated in the conference right now. My guy at Queen's
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the coach who follows me on Twitter. So this does
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: look like a sandwich spot to me that Stetson is in.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: So I like West Georgia in this one kind of
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: close to being a play for me. Man, the money
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: seems like it's kind of agreeing West Georgia up from
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: two to two and a half here. If we look
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: at ken Bomb's numbers here, he's got West Georgia pretty
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: awful though, And one reason why maybe you want to
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: stay away is West Georgia is the luckiest team in
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: the country according to ken Bomb. So that's one thing
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: that's kind of holding me back on this one. And
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: they're awful defensively, like in the bottom whatever forty or
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: so Deepens is also bottom like fifty or so strangth
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: the schedule, So West Georgia not to be trusted. So
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: that's my issue that I have with all those Stetson
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: is also pretty bad, in fact worse Setsan's also pretty
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: high in Bumps Luck Index though at ninety first. They
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: have faces stronger straight the schedule though, but they're also
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: outside of the top three hundred to both offense and defense.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: They're actually worse on both sides of the ball than
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: West Georgia's. The Stetson is awful and they're in an
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: awful spot. So my hesitation here again is just that
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: West Georgia is not as not even as good as
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the record looks, so that would be the reason to
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: hesitating this game. But I like West Georgia in that game,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: so hopefully that makes sense. Queen's is at Florida Gulf
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Coast here, sticking to the a Sun for a minute here.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Florida Gulf Coast just had a run of a couple
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: of games where they played Austin p and Lipscomb and
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: they took Lipscomb almost to the wy or. In this game,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: I believe it was a pretty good game for Florida
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Gulf Coast. They almost got the win. They're winning a
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: lot of this game early in the second half. Then
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: they fell behind, they never went away. They were still
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: within five points or four points actually in the final
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: minute or so of the game, So Gulf Coast did
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: not go away in that game. Now they have to
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: follow that up by playing Queens. Now, my hesitation here
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: is maybe they will still show up to face Queens
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: because Queens is four and oh in the conference, so
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: people teams are probably not gonna overlook them at this point.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: But Queens is coming off kind of a lackluster game
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: at North Florida. They beat them by seven on the road.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: North Florida is bad. But one thing you do have
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: to worry about about Queens is are they even this
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: good four and oh in conference? But their wins are
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: against Eastern Kentucky, Bellerman, Jacksonville in North Florida, so they
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: beat the bottom three teams in the conference and then
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: a mediocre Eastern Kentucky team. So Queens may not really
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: be as good as they look. And this is the
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: third straight road game, so there are some things to
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: not love about Queens in this game either, ken bum
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: as Queen's somewhat lucky at one sixteenth in the country
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: in luck and very bad defensively, They're massively lopsided. What
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: are you doing coach Queen's top one hundred off events
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: and outside of the top three hundred defensively and they
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: play slow? So or no they don't they play fast.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say they don't play slow? What No,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: they play fast. I'm looking at the wrong column here,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: but they're one sixteenth in lock, not one ten. So
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: close anyway, some hesitations with Queens there, although I do
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: lean to Queens slightly in this game, but I have
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: my hesitations with it, my reservations. Queens has already flipped
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: from a three point dog to a one point favorite
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: here though, so it seems like some actual money came
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: in on Queens and you're not really getting as much
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: value on them now, although you are basically basically just
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: picking them to win the game if you're picking them.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that. Oh, actually, I
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: should at least probably talk about the TV games. I'm
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: sorry I skipped some of these games. New Mexico's staying
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: in Liberty CBS Sports at six pm. This is actually
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: not a bad game. I'm going backwards a little bit here.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I apologize this game is actually that bad. As I
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: go back to yesterday's schedule this game, yeah, Liberty is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: definitely the better team, though New Mexico State just played
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee really close, so they're on a run of
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: some tough games here. They beat Western Kentucky the game
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: before that was kind of a staple in this conference
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: in Western Kentucky near the top as well. So the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: question is, is New Mexico State gonna run out of
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: gas here after playing three big games in a row
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: here or towards the end of this third game in
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: a row. Liberty just played Sam Houston got the win
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: on the road, and that wasn't actually easy. As I
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: pointed out, Sam Houston is actually a very underrated team
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: right now, so they are coming off of that. But
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Liberty's got a lot of momentum and they're on this
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: huge win streak. Not really a team I want to
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: step in front of, but of course they could win
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: this game and not cover Obviously. I think I would
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: still probably lay it with Liberty in this one, but
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a strong opinion. The money does
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: look like it is coming in that way. They're up
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: from seven and a half ton nine seventy five percent
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and ninety one percent of the cash
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: on Liberty. So that's that game. ESPNU has a Horizon
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: game at seven Oakland and Milwaukee. Oakland just lost to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Right State, actually, so that's kind of a big game.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: So Oakland they might actually be in kind of a
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: bad spot after kind of a step up game against
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Wright State. They got seasons swept by Wright State, and
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: now they have to go to Milwaukee, and Milwaukee not
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: really a team you're gonna pay as much attention to.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee just broke a low Street with a win, so
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: they have some newfound momentum here after getting a win
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: against a pretty bad IU Indy team that still doesn't
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: even have a win in conference. But I would lean
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: towards UW Milwaukee plus the points in this one. I
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: guess there's Milwaukee. Now the money's disagreeing. The money's coming
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: in on Oakland, but I don't really agree. Oakland up
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: from three to three and a half. Seventy percent of
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: the tickets and eighty eight percent of the cash on them.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: So that's that espn U game there, all right. And
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I know Right State is also playing in here today
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: as well. They're playing against Youngstown. I don't I don't
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to say about that other than
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Right State beating Oakland was a big game though, and
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that was the season sweep of Oakland, Oakland's only two
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: conference losses. Oh and, by the way, because Oakland plays
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: green Bay next by the way, Oakland might actually be
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Green Bay, so they're kind of in
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a sandwich spot just because green
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Bay is near the top of the conference standings. Right now,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Right State only faces Cleveland State next to Thought, so
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: they may not totally overlook Young Sound. And they actually
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: already lost at Youngstown earlier in the season before official
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: conference play started, so Right State actually may have a
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of revenge on their mind here, and they
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: have momentum. But then again, I worry about Right stat
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: again because they did just pull off that pretty big
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: season sweep of Oakland, So I'm staying off of that game.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in in Youngstown for what it's worth,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: and I don't really disagree with that Right State down
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: from seven to six seventy five percent of tickets on
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: them two percent of the cash on Youngstown. I don't
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: disagree with the Youngstown in that one. I actually do
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: agree with it, So I think it could be a
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown for right State. There, mister Pinsley,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? We got
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: CBS Sports. I mean, they might have thought this is
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be a good game here between Charleston and Thousand,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know, man, Thousand not a good team,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: but maybe Charleston. I think Charleston's probably not a huge
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: favorite in this game. Though. It's probably gonna look too
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: easy to play Charleston here. Charleston's on a seven game
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: win streak here. They just beat Hampton barely though that's
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: not very not a very impressive win for Charleston, only
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: getting by Hampton by five at home. Now they're going
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: out on the road. Maybe they will bring some momentum
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: and more focus here because they just didn't play well
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: against Hampton. But Tousand is not exactly a team you're
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: gonna totally focus on, just because they're not playing that
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: well this year and they're bad in conference. They did
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: just get a win finally. It gets Northeastern to get
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: a conference win finally, and that broke a four game
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: losing streak, including a loss to Hampton by the way,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: So thousand coming into this game off of finally gonna win.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: To me, it seems like that will give them some
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: new momentum coming into this game, and they probably will
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: show up for Charleston, So you know, I would probably
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: lean to thousand in this game. Actually, Towsand is actually
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: favored in this game. Thousand down from two and a
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: half to one and a half here, But even though
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the line moved towards Charleston, I mean, look at how
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: this game sets up. How could you possibly have a
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: nine to nine thousand team being a favorite over an
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: eleven and six Charleston team? Right, So, I think Towsand
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: is pretty underrated here. Oddsmakers are basically telling you what
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: you need to know. They're telling you Charleston is the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: better team, but not by much at all. So I
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: think Towsand might be the way to look in that game.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Maybe that will be a more interesting game that it
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: looks like. So that's on CBS Sports. Arkansas stand in
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: South Alabama is a decent game in the Sunbelt, two
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: decent teams in this conference. Arkansas State just barely got
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: by Texas State. So after that game, that's why I
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: faded Texas State yesterday because Texas State put in a
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: huge performance there. Arkansas State is the other side of that.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: They were a big favorite in that game, so now
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: they might show up with more intensity here for South
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Alabama just because Arkansas State didn't play well against a
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: mediocre Texas State team. And you can see why too,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: because Arkansas State had that huge win against Troy, who's
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: near the top of the conference again, and Troy was
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: a team that beat them in the conference final last year.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: So that was a massive win for Arkansas State. So
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: they came out with a bad performance against Texas State.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: They might have also been looking ahead to South Alabama
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: and then Troy again. Here they do play Troy next,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit of a concern. But will they
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: really overlook South Alabama. I'm guessing no, So I think
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State is gonna show up with focus here. South
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Alabama just beat Georgia Southern, as I pointed out, and
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: handed them their first co conference loss. But Georgia Southern,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: as I told you, they're not really that good, So
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know how it's gonna go for South Alabama here.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: They were probably favored in that game at home against
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern. They got the win. I doubt that they
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: overlook Arkansas State though, because they're another good team in
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the conference. So what do we do with this game?
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Arkansas State. I mean the money
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with it, by the way. They're down from
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: three and a half to three, but they have seventy
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash. Sixty percent of the tickets
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: are on South Alabama, so it's almost kind of looking
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: like a pros versus Joe's market, although I don't know
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: what Joe's are coming in and playing South Alabama. Although
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna play college basketball today, they don't have
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: any big conference games to look at really, so I
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: don't think there are any at all actually, so maybe
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: they will be looking at this game. I don't know.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: It's not a TV game though, it's an ESPN Plus game,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: But those are my thoughts on that. I think the
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Cream will kind of rise to the top when both
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: teams should be focused here. So I kind of agree
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: with the Arkansas State and that one. What other games
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: that I want to talk about here? A lot of
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: these other games, I mean, we have Ohio Valley and
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Whack Action as well. Whaction. These games I just don't
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: find very interesting. Man. I mean, if you want me
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to talk about any of my will, but I just
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: don't see much interest ESPN two at nine pm as
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: a conference or excuse me, an American game. American also
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: in action today. This is Wichita State and FAU. This
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: is an interesting game. Actually could be a decent TV
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: game here, Wichita just beating North Texas, although I don't
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: think Wichita is gonna overlook FAU. And by the way,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: remember I said I liked Wichita in that game, and
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: they did Cover barely. My concern in that game was
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: that it was gonna be a slow paced, ugly game,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: and it was. Wichita just got by with the cover
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: in that one. Now, I don't think they're gonna be
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: overconfident after beating in North Texas because North Texas is
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: down this year, so I think they will show because
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: FAU isn't playing pretty well, so I think you're gonna
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get focused out of Wichita. Now, Wichita might
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: be a little bit under the radar here because they're
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: sort of in the middle of the conference here, just
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: kind of hanging around there, maybe picking some teams off.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: So FAU might actually overlook Wichita Here, FAU is coming
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: off playing Tulane really close, and Tulane's up near the
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: top of the conference right now. They beat UAB on
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the road, u a B decent team in the conference.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Last game, they beat Memphis, and I know Memphis doesn't
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: have a good record, and I actually liked Memphis in
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: that game. But Memphis is still Memphis, man, I mean
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: there's still that name because they're like always at the
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: top of this conference. So you beat Memphis, still a
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: big deal. Now they get Wichita State, who I think
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: is under the radar here, the Wichita State Shockers, by
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: the way, one of the best team names. I think
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: they actually have foam hands that look like this. They
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: have the foam Shocker hands. I'm pretty sure you have
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: to you have to capitalize on that, even though no, no, dude,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: it means Wheat Shockers. That's who we are, man, Yeah,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: the Shockers baby shock the world, all right. But anyway, Yeah,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: so FAU might actually overlook them because FAU does have
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Temple and then Tulane again, then South Florida, then Memphis.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: So this really looks like a flat spot in their
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: schedule to me because they're playing all these better teams
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: in the conference surrounding this game. So I actually like
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Wichita in this game, and the money is not agreeing
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: fa use up from three and a half to five.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting a pretty good amount of value
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: on Wichita here, man, with this game being up to
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: a five point line fifty ticket seventy the cash on Fau,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with that line move,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: but I like Wichita in that game. I think it's
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: a bit of a sandwich for Fau. So there's a
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: game you can tune into. Yeah, I mean, we do
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: have a Battle of Idaho between Idaho and Idaho State.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: These teams are actually not that bad in the Big
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Sky Conference this year. They're both okay teams in the conference.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Idah's coming up beating Montana State, who might be the
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: best team in the conference or one of the best teams.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Pretty good win for Idaho there, but they're not gonna
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: overlook Idaho State. Man. However, maybe the game means a
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: little bit more to Idaho State because they're state versus
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the University of Idaho, So maybe they just always kind
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: of have that little brother mentality. But idoh State is
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: also coming up a big game they beat or no,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: excuse me, they're not coming off a big game, my mistake.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: I thought they'd beaten Montana, but they didn't. They beaten
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Northern Arizona, my mistake, So that was any easier win
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: for them. Northern Arizona is not that good this year,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: So Idaho State probably sets up a little bit better
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: coming into this game than Idaho does, just because Idaho's
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: coming up that nice win. Idah State dropped from three
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: to two and a half year, but I would probably
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: lean towards Idaho State in that game. Then what else
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: do we have here at espn U as linden Wood
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: and Southeast Missouri State. So this is a TV game
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: in the Ohio Valley. Man, both these teams are near
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: the top of the Ohio Valley. But the odds makers
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: are kind of telling you what you need to know
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: in this game, with CMO being a six and a
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, even though they're nine and eight and
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: linden Wood's ten and seven. Well, again, the oddsmakers are
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: telling you CMO is actually the better team. They're a
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: little bit under the radar right now. They've been one
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in this conference for a while.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Linden Wood is new to Division one within the last
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: few years, I think, so it's been a surprise their
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: start to the season. But I do think they will
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: maybe start falling apart a little bit, even though I
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: thought they might have a chance to win this conference
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. But yeah, I'm thinking otherwise
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: at this point, especially looking at this line here. So
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: CMO is favored for a reason. I would lean that
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: way just because it's such a misleading looking line here,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: but also if you look at the schedule, well, if
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: you look at the schedule, actually the schedule doesn't really
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: set up that bat for Lindon would because they just
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: lost to Little Rock. And you remember I gave out
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Little Rock as a play. I believe in that game
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: because lynden Wood had just played SIU Edwardsville close. They
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: had SEMO and then Tennessee Martin on deck, so I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: thought it was a sandwich spot. So I believe we
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: got to win on that one on the show, and
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: then for SEMO, Simo just lost some morehead though. That
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: was a pretty ugly loss, although it ended a win
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: street for CEMO. But I think they will show up
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: after a pretty ugly loss I know Morehead has made
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: some noise in this conference in the past, but this
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: year they're not really that good, so CEMO might come
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: up with some more fire in this game. Now. Simo
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: has faced a fairly easy conference schedule so far, though,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: with wins against Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, Southern Indiana. Those
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: are weak teams. Also lost to Tennessee Tech, but they
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: did beat Tennessee State on the road and that's a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: decent win. But conference schedule hasn't been that strong for them.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: But overall, I'll lead to sell these Missouri State just
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: because the line looks so crazy and the money is
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: agreeing with it at six and a half sixty seven
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Southeast Missouri State fifty to
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: fifty on the tickets. So that's my breakdown of that game.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: CBS Sports has number nine Gonzaga and Washington State, two
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington teams playing against each other here Man. It's
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: an interesting game. Washington State probably has a little brother
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: mentality against Gonzaga because Gonzaga is an elite team. They're
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: the best basketball team in the state of Washington. They're
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: going from Spokane to Pullman here, which is not a
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: huge I think these teams do probably play each other
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: pretty often, and now they're in the same conference as well,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: so it's not an unfamiliar venue or anything like that.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: But Washington State will probably show up as a little
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: brother here. Gonzaga is coming to this game off of
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: being Santa Clara, which is a pretty good win. Santa
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Clara looks pretty competitive in this conference this year, so
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: coming off of that, you know, maybe maybe it could
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a letdown ish spot for Gonzaga.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Here Washington State and you know they're gonna show up
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: at the very least, but they just lost to Saint
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Mary's on the road. Man, that was a tough game.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: They only lost by six. Saint Mary's very tough opponent two.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: So having to play Saint Mary's in Goozaga back to back,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be difficult, especially because it's a complete style
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: contrast to So you go from playing slow Saint Mary's
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: though I know that game is a little bit high
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: scoring eighty eight eighty two, but Saint Mary's plays slow,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: or they try to Goodzaga plays way faster. So going
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: from one of those teams to the other is not easy, man.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want any part of Washington State
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: here either. Looking at the market read here, the money
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: has actually come in Goodzaga after they dropped from nineteen
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: to seventeen and a half. Fifty percent of the tickets
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: and sixty six percent of the cash on them, So
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be into getting on Gonzaga. I
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong feel for it though. And then yeah,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: and then I guess Northern Colorado and Portland State is
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: kind of an interesting game here late in the big sky.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Both these teams. It's interesting because I'm looking at Portland
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: State as saying, well, three and zero in conference, but
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: they're not really this good, right, Well, maybe they are
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: because ken Bum does not have them as a particularly
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: lucky team or anything. You look at their out of
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: conference schedule. They played Stanford, San Francisco, Colorado, Tulane. I mean,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: those are their losses. They were reasonably competitive in every
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: one of those games. Did lose to Omaha as well,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: who's not very good this year. But uh, Portland State,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, you know, maybe they're not actually that bad.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I do think Northern Colorado's under the raidar though, So
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: I actually think both these teams are actually fairly good
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: in this conference, but Northern Colorado's had a very difficult
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: conference schedule, which Portland State is not. Portland State played
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Weber State, Idaho State, and Sacramento State so far in
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: the conference, with Idaho State on the road being the
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: best win out of those, but they're really having to
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: step up in class. I think to play Northern Colorado here.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Northern Colorado has already played both Montana teams and Idaho State.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: They did lose to Weber State, but they faced probably
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the most difficult Big Sky Conference schedule so far, man
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: playing like all the top teams in the conference already
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: except for Portland State, so Northern Colorado's a little bit
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: more battle tested. I think they might be a little
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: bit under the raidar, even though their overall record looks
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: better than Portland States. I would probably take the points
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: with Northern Colorado Portland State down from four to three here.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Ken Bom has these two teams pretty close power ratings wise,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: and actually their metrics are all pretty close if you
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: look at ken Buond they're very similar teams actually, So
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Portland State basically just getting home court makes sense for
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: a number, and I would probably prefer to have the
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: points in a game like that, So I do lean
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: to Northern Colorado in that one. All right, So that's
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the basketball breakdown again. I'll talk about other games you
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: really want me to. We got to get through a
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: lot of hockey here in a decent NBA board as well.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot, Like I said, I
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: only have one more play and it's in hockey. I'm
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: being very selective here. Montreal at Buffalo Montreal, they're coming
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: up of an overtime loss to Washington, so that is
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: a pretty difficult game. Washington's good, so they're gonna have
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to turn around and play another big game, playing a
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: third game in four days, all in different cities, and
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: a fourth game in six days, in a fifth game
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: and eight and actually a sixth game in nine days.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: So they've had a very packed schedule. So even though
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: I think they should show up for Buffalo, I think
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: it's a pretty difficult, like a rest spot I should
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: say for Montreal here, and difficult because they played a
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: big game yesterday. Was that yesterday? No, it was two
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: days ago, my mistake. So Buffalo is actually on a
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: back to back, so that doesn't make it difficult for
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Buffalo as well, because they had a fairly big win
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: over Philadelphia yesterday. So Buffalo is on back to back
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: although they are staying at home. You don't always want
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: to fade the team that's in the back to back.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in a Buffalo, and I don't
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: really disagree with it. Montreal up from minus one oh
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: five to minus one fourteen, sixty percent of the tickets
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: on them, ninety four percent of the cash coming back
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: on Buffalo. I'll agree with it. I mean, Montreal really
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: has had a jammed schedule, which I think kind of
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: negates the fact that Buffalo is on a back to back.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is staying at home also kind of negates that.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: So I kind of agree Buffalo. That's a slight lean
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: for me. ESPN has a doubleheader. First game up on
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: the double headers Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in the Battle of Pennsylvania.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: These two teams are one and one against each other
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: this year, and the last time they played Pittsburgh one
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: at Philadelphia five to one, so this could be a
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: little bit of a zigzag spot. Maybe Philly remembers that
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: that was December first, so Philly might have the adjustments
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: to make and I think Philadelphia is the better team.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is on a four game skid, and they really
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: have looked bad in the last three games, losing seven
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: to two and five to one to Tampa Bay at
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: home and then losing five to two in Buffalo. So
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia is gonna show up in this game
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: for a number of reasons. Although, yes, they played yesterday,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: so they are on the back to back, but travel
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: from Buffalo to Pittsburgh is at least not a huge
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: travel leg It's an ESPN game. They have a lot
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: of reason to at least show up in this game. Pittsburgh,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: they didn't play yesterday, so yeah they have rest, and
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: yeah they're staying at home. But Tuesday they played Tampa
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Bay into a shootout, man, so both teams are actually
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: on lost streaks, though Pittsburgh has lost three in a row,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: but that was a tough game playing Tampa to a shootout, man,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: So I actually like Philadelphia in this game. I think
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: the spot actually does set up better for them. So
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: I actually like two teams that are actually on back
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: to backs, and the money seems to agree. Pittsburgh moved
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: up from minus one fifty five to minus one sixty seven.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are kind of telling you Pittsburgh's the
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: better team here, but I don't really agree with that.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of the I don't think either
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: of these teams are as good as the record looks though,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: But I do think that the rest scenario, because Philadelphia's
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: on the back to back, I think that's being factored
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: into the line maybe too much here fifty three percent
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: of tickets and eighty one percent of the cash on Philly.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting some value on Philly as an
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: underdog of that magnitude, So I agree with where the
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: cash percentages on that one right now with Philadelphia could
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: be like a split bet if you want to make
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: one with the plus one puck line, part part of
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: the plus one puck line and part on the or yeah,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: part of the bus plus one and a half puck line.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Excuse you make your own plus one puck line, and
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: then the other part on the money line. Speaking of which,
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: my best bet is this next game, and yes, this
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: is also a split bet because they're dealing with a
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: fairly sizeable underdog. This time. We're gonna be on the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: San Jose Sharks, and I'm splitting the bet. I found
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: the plus one and a half puck line at minus
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: one forty four and the plus one seventy money line.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: If you want to just own money line, that's fine
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: as well. But I'm mitigating risk a little bit here,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: and I have to pay a little bit more to
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: do it. But being able to find each play at
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: a different book and whatever, you get the best number
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: that you can find on each part of the bet
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: at each market because you can play each one at
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: a different book. So this is what I'm doing here.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: It comes out to I believe, I think this comes
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: out to somewhere close to him minus one ten price.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I think on the I think it might actually be
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: plus money even if you figure out like what the number, like,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: what the price equates to. Actually, I still have it
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: up here. It equates to plus one eleven. Actually here,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: this is how I did it with Johnny Ma's baseball
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: run line calculate. It's the same thing, but I had
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: to flip the odds because the he does it as
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: if you're playing a favorite. So the money line wager
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: should always actually be the favorite part of the wager,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: because what you want is the favorite part of it
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: is the part that you have to put more money on,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: and then the amount to win on that bet should
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: be the amount that you put on the other part
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: of the bet. So you see here it makes sense
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: because now if I lose the excuse me, if I
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: win the money line portion of it, Oh no, excuse me.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: If I win the puck line portion of it. So
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: they come within one but lose the money line, it'll
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: be a push. So that's how it works. So it
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: is the equivalent of a plus one puck line. That's
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: how it works. So if they lose by one, you'll
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: at least get your money back when you do it
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: this way. So that's how I do it. Looking at
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: the spot in this game, I think the spot sets
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: up pretty nice for San Jose here. Man. Yeah, they're
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip and going east, but they have
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: three days off after an ugly loss to Vegas, and
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see why they lost that game
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: because San Jose had beaten Dallas in overtime the game
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: before that, and it was a back to back, so
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: they just got smacked by Vegas. Now they're going out
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: on the road. They have a lot of rest here,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: So I think this is a good thing when you
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: really had a bad game in your last game. I
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: think rest help you. You just forget about to go
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: on the road, focus on hockey, which I think they
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: will do. And I think the spot is a lot
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: worse for Washington. As I already pointed out, Washington just
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: had that nice overtime win on Tuesday against Montreal, and
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: yeah they are staying at home, but they have less
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: rest here. They just beat Montreal, and up next they
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: got Florida, man the returney champs who also beat them
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: in Florida back on December twenty ninth. So I do
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be looking ahead to Florida, and they
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: play Colorado the game after that to start a road trip.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: So I think this looks like a Sandwich spot man.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: So I like San Jose in this one. I think
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: San Jose is in a positive spot. Washington is in
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: a negative spot. We're going with San Jose. This line
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: is plummeting. By the way, Washington's already down for minus
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: one ninety five to minus one sixty seven. Money is
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: seemingly in agreement with me here sixty seven percent of
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: the tickets and ninety two percent of the cash on
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: the Sharks. I agree with taking the shacks in this game.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: So that's the way we're doing it. Split puck line
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: and money line. Of course, it's gonna be less and
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: less because this line keeps dropping. So if you wind
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: up in a situation where you just go money line
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: on it, I think that's also okay. Hopefully San Jose
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: gets the win for us outright in that one. Vancouver
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: at Columbus two fairly ugly teams here, Man, Vancouver's on
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: an awful lost streek. I think they've lost eight games
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: in a row. But they're in a difficult spot kind
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: of travel wise at least and rest wise. They're playing
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: third game in four days, fourth game in six days,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: fifth game in eight days, in a sixth game and
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: ten days, all in different cities. That's pretty difficult to do, man.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Now they are finishing a road trip, though, so they
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: might show up because they want to at least try
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: to salvage a game if you're losing literally every game
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: on the road trip. But I don't know, man. I mean,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: they play Edmonton next, which is gonna be a bigger game.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: This rest spot is pretty difficult for them. The spot
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: for Columbus they played on Tuesday beat Calgary staying at home.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: They have a little bit of momentum at least coming
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: into this game. They're not going to be overconfident after
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: beating Calgary, which we liked Calgary in that game, by
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: the way, on the show. But you remember my hesitation
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: with that was Columbus had fired their coach. So Columbus
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: firing their coach seemed to spark them, even though they
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: actually won. They won the last game that their former
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: coach coached, I'm pretty sure, but they did win again
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: in the fired coach phenomenon, it's a strong, strong angle
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: man the fired coach. It wins so often, and it
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: won even though Calgary was in the better spot and
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Columbus was returning home. They still won. So now they
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: do continue momentum here. The warry I guess is that
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: they might look ahead to Pittsburgh in the next game.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: So I don't like the game really. The money is
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: coming in on Vancouver, which you know they'll at least
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: show up focus here, but I just don't know. Man.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Columbus down for minus won seventy eight to minus one,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: fifty seven, sixty two percent of the tickets and eighty
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Vancouver, so the money is
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: coming in towards the at cooverside. Yeah, they'll want to
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: salvage the last game of the road trip at the
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: rest spot. Seems pretty difficult to me, you know. Yeah,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: I just don't know what else to say about this game.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: It's it's a difficult game to predict, man, So I
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: am holding off of this game. I'm staying away from
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: the game. We have a Seattle at Boston now. Hopefully
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: the Bruins can get this done, man, because they're catching
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: another team in a bad spot, just like they did
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: with Detroit the other day. Seattle's on a back to back.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: They played New Jersey into overtime last night, so that
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: was of course, we're pissed here on the show because
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: at least I am, because I gave out the crack
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: and in that game and they lost in overtime. So
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: I am not happy because I'm messed with the devils, man,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the Devil, Buddy or never one you beat anybody or
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: the Devil. Yeah, we messed with l Diablo and that
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: one or Low Stablos, So that wasn't good. But for
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle now, they had a close game played into overtime
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: last night against New Jersey. They're playing a third game
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: in four days now, all in different cities, even though
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: New York New Jersey are close, still technically different cities. Uh.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: They're also playing a fourth game in six days, all
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: in different cities, in a fifth game in eight days,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. So it's a difficult scheduling spot
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. Here Now for Boston Bruins, nice win, nice
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: shutout win against Detroit Bruins, back to back shutout wins
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: after a massacre went over the Rangers. Bruins kind of
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: hot right now. Four wins in a row. I'm happy
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: as a Bruin fan, but I think they're dude. They
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: are catching Seattle at a good time, and I think
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: they still might show up this game because the Bruins.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: The last loss of the Bruins took was at the
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: hands of Seattle at the end of the road trip
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: they just had on January sixth ugly seven to four.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: So I think the Bruins might actually show up for
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: this game for that reason. So I would lean to
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: the Bruins in this game, man, And for Seattle. By
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: the way, I think Decord will be in net here though,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: so that might pump him up a little bit because
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: he is a Boston guy. He's literally born in Boston,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: man to coord and he'll get to play in Boston
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: tonight probably although he's I'm assuming he's played in Boston
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: before though, so probably not as big of a deal.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: But he might have some people in the area, family
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: friends that might show up. Who knows the money is
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: coming in on Seattle, which does worry me here because
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: I leaned Bruins Bruins down for minus one seventy to
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty two. Bruins are getting some respect in
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: the market right now. Really the market is disrespecting Seattle
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: because the market has been saying for a while that
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Seattle's not good. But also I think the Bruins maybe
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit heavily favored because of the rest situation
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: here or lack thereof for Seattle. So maybe the money
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: is kind of just playing that saying, well, there's an
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: overreaction here to the rest. But I still think the
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: spot is a lot better for the Bruins. But fifty
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets on the Bruins eighty one
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Seattle, So I do worry
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: that maybe maybe the Bruins are not gonna be able
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to get that one. I don't know, man, but hopefully
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: they can and hopefully they get that little bit of
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: revenge there. Winnipeg at Minnesota. Winnipeg on a three game
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: win streak, man, So Winnipeg finally starting to turn things
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: around here, hellabook starting to play a little bit better
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: at least coming off a big win over the Islanders
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: though that was a nice winder. Though They're not gonna
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: overlook Minnesota. Man, this is a big game as well.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: It's a somewhat quick road trip I think for Winnipeg
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: to go to Minnesota on Minnesota coming in off an
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: ugly loss in New Jersey and they've had multiple days off,
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: so I think the spot is better from Minnesota because
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: they've had multiple days off to try to break this
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: losing momentum and they just lost to the Islanders. So
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: maybe the public might look at this and think, oh, well,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg beat the Islanders, who beat Minnesota, So maybe Winnipeg
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: does have a chance in this game. I don't know
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: if that's what they're gonna think or not, but the
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: public is kind of what have you done for me lately?
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: And Minnesota's lost four of their last five games, but
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: having time off to break that momentum staying at home.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: I like the spot better for Minnesota in this game,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: so I would have to lean that way in this game.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: The money seems like it does agree. Even though Minnesota
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: dropped for minus one sixty to minus one thirty eight.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: You're getting actually a pretty cheap money line price here
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota, although it looks too easy to play Minnesota,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: which I worry about because of course they have a
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: way better record eighty three percent of tickets in ninety
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Minnesota, so they're a
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: little bit public as well. Seems like maybe the money's
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: kind of coming out on them at this point too.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: But I would have to agree with I would have
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: to agree with the Minnesota in that game if I
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: was gonna play that game. All right, we got Calgary
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: in Chicago here. Calgary coming in off a pretty ugly
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: loss to Columbus. They're probably gonna show up for this game,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: try to do something to finish off this road trip
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: with there're one to three on the road trip. They'll
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: probably be looking to get a game here, at least
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: a winnable game. Probably Chicago's coming off losing to Edmonton
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: at home, but Chicago's had two days off, so it's
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: not a horrible spot for Chicago either, coming into this
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: game with rest or whatever. Both teams might be focused
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: in this one. You know, I actually don't hate the
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: under in this one. For Jeffrey, I don't know where
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: he is. Where's Jeffrey at? He must have run out
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: of his h He must have run out of his
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: what's the world his? Dude? Dude, I can't even think
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: straight anymore. Like I'm in the betting space and I
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: still don't even remember what the word is. He must
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: have run out of his bank roll. That's the word
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for. Rome, My god, I can't think think.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: I don't mind the under in this game. Though ninety
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets are on the over, ninety four
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under, the totals low
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: ish six juice to the under. I don't really do
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: a whole lot with I don't do anything really with
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: hockey unders. But to me, you get arrested. Chicago team,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: their offense could come out a little bit shaky. They'll
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: probably be focused a bit more on defense. Calgary will
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: be trying to win this game at the very least,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: so we'll see Chicago on the side is up for
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: minus one to five to minus one sixteen, but they
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: are public seventy five percent of tickets and only sixty
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash. So the market read is
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: saying Calgary. I don't really I mean, I don't know
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: if I agree actually, because Chicago is at least I mean,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: they're coming up the more difficult game, but they're more
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: rested and staying at home, So I don't really know
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: about that, but the market read is saying Calgary for
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: what it's worth. Dallas at Utah. Dallas coming in off
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: a three to one loss to Anaheim, but now they're
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: having to go to elevation to play Utah. Third game
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: in four days, fourth game in six days, a fifth
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: game or no, yeah, fourth game in six days. It's
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: not a fifth game in eight but it is a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: sixth game in ten days though, because they played it
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: back to back Tuesday Wednesday, so in all in different cities.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: So it is a tightly packed schedule for Dallas, and
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: they're not playing as well recently. And when they finished
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: this whole thing, they played Tampa next, which is probably
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bigger game Man, So there are definitely
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: some things to not like about the spot. For Dallas
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: here they will have Ottinger back and neck Batican net
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: back in neck back in Net, I think because de
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Smith played in the last game. But the spot does
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: set up better in my opinion for Utah here. Utah
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: is staying at home. Yeah, they had a nice win
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: over Toronto. We had to win with that on the
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: show caught Toronto in a very bad spot for Toronto.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think Utah is gonna be overconfident enough beating
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: in Toronto though, even though they smashed them, they should
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: show up for a game against Dallas. Man and the
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: oddskers are really telling you something with this line. Utah
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: is basically a They're like almost a favorite, not quite
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: but almost flipping for plus one hundred and minus one
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: oh seven, which is still not technically a favorite because
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: of the big but still it looks so easy I
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: think to play Dallas here, even though they haven't been
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: as good lately, I think the public still might have
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: a tendency to maybe somewhat look that way. Although we
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: see seventy eight percent of the tickets on Utah, ninety
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on Utah, but I have
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: to lean towards Utah in that game. I think the
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: spot is pretty ugly for Dallas as far as the
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: lack of rest is concerned. We have Islanders against Oilers.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Islanders coming into this game off of losing a Winnipeg,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: so they might bounce back from that a little bit.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: They should be focused for a game against Edmonton. Edmonton
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: just lost in overtime to Nashville and now they're playing
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: a third game in four and a's all in different cities.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Technically the returning over from a road trip, but the
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: road trip is just Monday Tuesday, so something on those
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: long road trips we really get distracted in returning home
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: or whatever. So all all that being said, though, I
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: think the Islanders are actually the way to lean in
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: this game because they're already out there in this area,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: only coming in from Winnipeg, so probably a little bit
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: easier of a travel spot for the Islanders. The money
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: is agreeing Edmonton down for minus one seventy eight to
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty two here. Maybe Edmonton favored a little
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: bit too heavily here. Sixty four percent of tickets on them,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash though on the Islanders,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: and then we finished it up with the second of
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: the double header on ESPN. It's Toronto at Vegas, and
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Vegas is not favored by as much as you would think.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: I think partially because they're in a bad rest spot here,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: but I look at that in a minute. Toronto just
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: had a wind streak snapped with that loss at Utah.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: But remember that was a horrible spot because they had
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: just upset Colorado in Colorado in overtime the night before,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: so a lot of reasons to really like Utah in
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: that game. We got it done and Toronto was I
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: think looking ahead to Vegas, although it's still a difficult
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: rest spot now, Toronto playing a third game in four days,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, coming out of elevation, fourth game
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: in six days, and actually a fifth game in eight days,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, so it is pretty difficult. A
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: lot of travel from them here and just a yeah
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: zigzag in between games here, and yeah, a lot of
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: games in quick successions, so it is pretty difficult for Toronto,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: I think, and losing a win streak sometimes will hang
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: you over, even though you think ideally they will show
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: up for this game Vegas played yesterday, which again I
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: think is why Vegas is not laying a heavier price
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: here because they won an overtime last night, but they
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: did have two days off prior to that, and they're
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: staying in the Pacific time zone. Like their last two
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: games are at San Jose and at LA, so they're
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: only now coming back from La to Vegas, which is
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: not a huge trip here. So I actually like Vegas
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though they are on the back
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: to back, so they're actually three teams on back to
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: backs that I actually kind of lean to here. The
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: money doesn't agree with this one though. Vegas down for
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty five to minus one thirty fifty percent
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: of tickets and seventy seven percent of the cash on Toronto,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: so that's the market read for what it's worth. It
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't agree with me on that one, all right, and
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: I like to be in agreement with the market if
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: I can be all right, all right. NBA, we do
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: have a game at two pm Eastern in the afternoon
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: on Amazon Prime, and that's because this is international NBA
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: play Memphis and Orlando. This is in Berlin, Germany, so
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: it's an evening game in Berlin. It's a an afternoon
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: game here our time, very very strange game. I don't
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: know why these are the two teams that are representing
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the NBA over in Germany. I hate this shit. Memphis
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: is without Zach Eedy and without John Morant, I believe,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: so we have a very thin Memphis roster here. Both
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: teams have ample rest on both teams coming off wins
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: against bad teams. Memphis beat Brooklyn, so probably expect Memphis
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: to show up in this game. They actually didn't even
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: do well against Brooklyn, only winning by five. But I
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: believe we actually we had Brooklyn in that game because
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Memphis had played a really tough game against Oklahoma City,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: came to within one the game before that, and then
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: they had this game upcoming, so we faded them and
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn got the cover. Memphis didn't play well, so in
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: a way, I think Memphis will be in the better
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: spot here. The more focus might come from Memphis here.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: Orlando coming into this having beaten New Orleans prior to
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: coming into this game, so they're coming in I guess
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: with momentum as well after an easy win. But that
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: wasn't a win where it was too close of a
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: call because they beat New Orleans by double digits. But
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: the thing that puts me over the top and has
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: been leading Memphis in this game is Wagner. Is it
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: looks like Wagner is coming back for Orlando in this game.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Franz Wagner. He hasn't played since early December, so he's
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: coming back. Then, what that means is it's a reverse
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: injured players spot for Orlando, right because one of your
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: star players hasn't played him so long and he's got
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: to work his way back in. Teams have to assume
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: different roles again, and then the line could shift too
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: far on that one team to account for that guy
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: coming back. So I would lean to Memphis in this game.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: Money seems to agree with that. The Magic are a
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: five point favorite on a neutral. Does that reflect that
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Wagner is gonna play in this game? I think he
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: is because he's not even on the injury report. Suggs
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: looks like he's not coming back yet. But I think
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: Wagner will be eighty one percent of the tickets and
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: only sixty six percent of the cash on the Magic.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with the Grizzlies side in that game, plus
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: the points. The money also agreeing with it. Phoenix at Detroit.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: Phoenix should be focused coming into this game. They did
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: lose to Miami on Tuesday. Now they're coming up to Detroit.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: They playing then, and I don't think they're gonna overlook Detroit.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Hero though Phoenix did just lose a three game win
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: streak at Miami. I thought it was a better spot
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: for Phoenix in that game, but Miami actually kind of
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: blew them out of though Phoenix didn't really go away
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: in the game, but I think Phoenix may have been
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: looking ahead. They probably will show up, but I think
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: Detroit's gonna show up as well. Detroit lost at home
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: to the Clippers on Saturday, just a really really ugly
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: loss at home to the Clippers, and Detroit's had four
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: days off to kind of fix whatever went wrong, lick
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: their wounds, whatever. So I think the spot is actually
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: better for the Pistons in this game. The money kind
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: of agrees with that. The Pistons are laying six and
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: a half sixty to nine percent of the tickets and
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on Detroit. I do
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: not disagree with that. I will lean to Detroit as well.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: My Boston Celtics are at Miami here looks pretty easy
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: to lay the small price with the Celtics. Man, they're
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: a small road favorite here, but Miami's basically intact team
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: at this point, and Miami, even though they have the
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: fairly significantly worst record, looks too easy to play the
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Celtics here. Man. Although the Celtics are coming up a
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly loss at Indiana, so you got to think
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: the Celtics should show up. And this is kind of
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the Joe Mizzoula thing, like when you have a bad
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: loss as a favorite. The Celtics are pretty good at
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: bouncing back from losses like that, well coached, and you
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: can kind of explain that loss because the Celtics had
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: that big game against San Antonio that they lost. The
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: game before that, Celtics have lost three out of four,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: so I think they will actually kind of show up
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: here in this game. Of course Miami also will. Miami
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: did just beat Phoenix on Tuesday. Like I said, they're
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They have okay SCENEXT, so I don't
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: really see them looking ahead to that. I don't think
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook the Celtics. They did just lose to
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the Celtics by thirteen in Boston back on December nineteenth,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: so maybe there'll be some adjustments that Miami can make.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Miami probably was without some of their best players in
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: that game too, out of by, I and Hero have
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: missed time, and I believe they're both back here. Celtics
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: are still favored. They're up from one and a half
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: to two. It looks like the money is kind of
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Celtics and joining the public for now,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: but they are very public eighty four percent of the tickets,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash though for now. Now, I
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: do think the Celtics will be in the bounce back
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: spot and show up, so I will actually kind of
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: slightly lean into the Celtics as well there. But again
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of hesitations with these Boston Leans
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: that I have today, man, although I hope they win.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: Of course, Amazon Prime giving us a good game in
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: the second game here, it's a triple header on Amazon Prime,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: and the best game is this seven thirty game. Of course,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: right in the middle of prime time. We get kind
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: of an ugly Berlin game in the afternoon that nobody
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: cares about, a fairly ugly night game, but this is
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: obviously the best game Oklahoma City at Houston. Teams that
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: are fighting for well really, I mean, nobody can really
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: fight Oklahoma City for the top spot in the West.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Houston's trying to be the second best team in the West,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: and power ratings wise, I think they might be. San
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: Antonio is definitely in the mix now though, and Denver
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: with Jokic and healthy, is in the mix as well.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is coming up that huge win over San Antonio. Man,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: I told you Oklahoma City would finally do it. They
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: won by margin. They blew out San Antonio, the team
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: that they couldn't beat because they've lost three times against
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: San Antonio, but they only lost at home once. Man,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: and okaysee is really good at home. That was a
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: huge win being San Antonio by twenty one. That was
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: the only team at Oklahoma City had lost to this
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: year and hadn't also beaten. Well, now they've done it,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: They've exercised the demons. They're starting a road trip with momentum.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: I guess technically, but I think this could be a
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: pretty major letdown spot man, even though they should look ahead,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: like I mean, excuse, they should focus on Houston. But
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: the game I think means more to Houston, man, Houston's
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: still trying to be the nomber two team in the West.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: Houston did lose early in the season at at Oklahoma
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: City actually first game of the season. Houston only lost
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: that game by one. Actually at Oklahoma City in double overtime.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: I think that was the only time they played this year.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: So Houston was very competitive in that game. So Houston
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: can do this, man, Houston's a good team. Houston coming
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: into this game off of beating Chicago in a return
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: home spot, no less, so it was not really the
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: greatest spot for Houston. They got it done anyway, they
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: weren't really looking ahead. You gotta think they still show
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: up there and it's the second game back home after
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: beating Chicago, but only beating them by six didn't cover.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think so Houston coming into this game. I
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: think they will have more focus here. I like Houston
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: in this game. The line in this game, let me see,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: Thunder looked like they're getting the money though they're from
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: three and a half to five, sixty eight percent of
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: the tickets eighty seven percent of the casual on the Thunder.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with that. I would lean Houston in
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: the one and again, yeah, we should probably be looking
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: at the injury reports for NBA, but Heart and Stee
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: is still out for Okac, which is not gonna be
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: good for them against a tall line up like Houston.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: By the way, having one of your big men out
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: probably not a great thing. Dort looks like he's a
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: game time decision, and he's one of the best defenders
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: on Okasee, so we will see. And the injury report
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: is not that crazy for Houston, so alright, and then
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: we have Milwaukee at San Antonio. Milwaukee, it looks like
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: Yiannis is a game time decision, but it looks like
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: he is probable, so I think he will play. Milwaukee's
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: coming of a really hideous loss at home to Minnesota.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: I know Minnesota is good, but losing by thirty three
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: on your own home floor that is really really ugly. Man.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: But excuse me, Milwaukee wasn't exactly in a good spot.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at Milwaukee's spot they were in. They
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: were turn home from a road trip, so that's a
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: distracted spot. Basically by default, they played Denver really close
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: after beating the Lakers, That's how they finished the road trips,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: So excuse me. I just think they were in a
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: bad spot, didn't have much left in the tank there
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: they had San Antonio on deck. I think I leaned
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota in that game as well, if I'm not mistaken.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: It was that one of those single home games surrounded
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: by road trips too, which is a very difficult spot
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: because the home distraction's really come into play and you
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: have to get stuff done at home and you have
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: little time to do it. So I think Milwaukee they
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: got caught in a bad spot. Now they're going back
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: out on the road after an embarrassing loss. I like
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in this game and San Antonio. Yeah, they got
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: blown out, but they got blown out by Oklahoma City. Man,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: that was a big game coming on the heels of
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: San Antonio, playing Minnesota really close, and they got revenge
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota coming up next, So I think they could
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: definitely overlook Milwaukee in the spot in San Antonio, Okay,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: seeing big game, man, like I would probably I would
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: actually be on Milwaukee in this game if San Antonio
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: played Oklahoma City close in that game, although unfortunately they
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: did not and they lost by twenty one. So I'm
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: gonna stay away. But I still like Milwaukee in this one,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: the money seems like it's on the Spurs at least
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: for now, up from five and a half to seven
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. I don't really understand the market move
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: on that, because again Giannis is playing. It looks like
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: for the bus, So don't really know what's going on
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: with the market here. Seventy nine percent of tickets, eighty
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the Spurs. I'll lean
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: Bucks plus the points in that one. Utah at Dallas.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: Utah is coming into this off a close game at Chicago.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: Man So, Utah beat Cleveland as a double digit underdog,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: and that was a win for us on the show.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: They followed that up with another pretty tough performance covering
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: I Believe at Chicago. Now they gotta go down to
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: Dallas with no time off. By the way, it's a
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: back to back with travel and a third game in
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: four days and a fourth game in six days, all
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: in different cities. It is not a good spot for
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Utah here. Dallas is coming into this off losing at
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: home yesterday though, so they were also on a back
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: to back, but at least they're staying at home and
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: they lost to Denver. It was a big game, but
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: they did lose by nine. I don't actually know how
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: close the game was. I didn't really look that closely.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: You know, it was reasonably close down the stretch. They
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: were within six pretty late in the game, so Dallas
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: did put in an effort there. But I do think
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: the spot does set up better for the MAVs in
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: this one. That's the way I would lean. They flipped
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: from a one and a half dog to a one
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Dallas has they have eighty three percent of
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: the tickets in ninety nine percent of the cash on them,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: so I'll agree the market is agreeing with me on
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: that one. I think it's a lean to the MAVs
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: in that game. The final Prime game on Amazon Prime
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: at ten pm Eastern is the Knicks at the Warriors
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: New York at Golden State. Man. The Knicks are coming
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: into this game of a pretty ugly loss by double
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: digits to Sacramento last night. Maybe the Knicks are looking
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: ahead to this game. I don't know many the Knicks
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: are on a back to back. Well, actually I do know.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: Brunson got hurt in that game. Brunson only played like
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: five minutes in the game before getting hurt, so that
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: is part of the reason why they lost that game.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: So already you can see I'm gonna I'm gonna be
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: leaning to the Knicks in this game, which I'll explain,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: even though yes, they're on a back to back now,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: I do worry that they have a thin roster here,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: like without Brunson. It looks like Brunson is probably not
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: playing in this game, which is why I actually lean
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: to the Knicks in this game. But I do worry
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: that on a back to back, including losing your best
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: player early in that game, thin roster had to play
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: in that game, and now they have to play again here.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that that the Knicks roster is thin,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: which is a problem on a back to back that
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: they did at least have two days off before they
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: played Sacramento. That is an ugly loss. So I think
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: the Knicks should at least show up for this game
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: against the Warriors. Warriors coming into this off a blowout
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: win over Portland at home. But the spot is not
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: horrible for the Warriors. I mean, they're just staying at home.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: They'll show up for game against the Knicks too, but
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: it's an injured player spot for the Knicks. Now, like
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: I said, because I think Brunson's not playing, which is
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: why the Warriors are up from four to seven. And
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: you know what I always say, when your star player
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: gets injured, the line usually overreacts to it because the
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: line has to account for it. But usually it goes
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: too far. And then that first game without your star player,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: you usually play well, so the team usually steps up
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: their game without him. So I would lean to the
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: Knicks in this game. Although the Warriors have sixty percent
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: of tickets in ninety five percent of the cash on
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: them now, unfortunately, it's not a horrible spot for the Warriors,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately the Knicks have a thin roster on a
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: back to back. If the situation was a bit different
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: and it was the Brunson injured player spot, I would
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: probably I'd be like maybe giving out a play on
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: the Knicks here, But as it stands now, it's a
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: stay away. Obviously this game has to be a stay
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: away from me. Then we have all the Hawks at
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: the Blazers, Atlanta at Portland. Here, Atlanta's coming up in
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: ugly loss. I know it was at the Lakers, so
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: not an easy game, but losing one forty one to
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: one sixteen. That is ugly, dude giving up one forty
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: one to anybody. That's bad. So Atlanta might show up
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: with a little bit more focus here, uh, trying to
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: finish the road trip, but maybe not because they do
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: a Boston up next. So you could maybe may make
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: the argument that they're in the cross country rivalry sandwich
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: between the Lakers and the Celtics, and Atlanta did lose
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: a three game win stream with that lost to LA,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: but it was such an ugly loss. I think they
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: will show up with some focus in this game. Portland
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: coming off an ugly loss themselves though, losing by twenty
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: two at Golden State. They're coming back home. Will they
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: overlook Atlanta because they have the Lakers on deck on Saturday?
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. I think both teams show
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: up because they're both coming off ugly performances. Hawks are
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: a four point favorite. The money is coming in on
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: the Blazers though, sixty eight percent of the tickets on
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: the Hawks sixty four percent of the on the Blazers.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a pros versus Joe's looking marketing. I
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: don't really have much of a reason to disagree with
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: that though, So the market, says the Blazers for what
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: it's worth in that game. I don't have a strong
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: opinion though. And then we have Charlotte at the Lakers here.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: First glance, this line looks pretty short, right. It looks
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: way easy to play the Lakers here, down from five
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: and a half to four. How could the Lakers only
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: be laying four against the Charlotte Hornets? Eighty nine percent
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the Lakers this is at home two
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: for the Lakers, seventy two percent of the cash on
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: the Hornets. So big market disparity there between ticket and
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: cash percentage pros versus Joe's whatever you want to call it,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: looks like the big money is on the Hornets here.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with it. The Hornets are staying in LA.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: They've had two days off and they're just staying in
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: LA after losing to the Clippers. So not a bad
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: spot for the Hornets here for the Lakers. We got
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: to see what the injury report is for the Lakers
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: here in a second, because why is this line start short?
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: The Lakers just blew out Atlanta, so at least that's
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: kind of a satisfying win. Although it broke a low
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: street for them. So maybe we'll give them some new
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: momentum coming into this game. But I don't know, man,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, will they really totally focus on Charlotte here?
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe not? Now, what is the injury report saying? Here? Reeves?
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: We know is still out, but that looks like it's
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: basically it as far as like significant Laker injuries. He's
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: been out for a long time. So why are the
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: Lakers this small of a favorite? Right? It seems crazy
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: that the Lakers are this small of a favorite. But
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: the Osmakers are not throwing money away here, man, So
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: I lean towards the Hornets. Yeah, it looks way too
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: easy to play the Lakers, like I said, And the
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: Lakers are not really as good as people think they are.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know it's the name Lakers, it's Luca,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: it's Lebron, but Luca's not a good defender. The roster's
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: pretty thin right now. Lebron is old, and the Lakers
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: they are not good defensively this year. Man. The Lakers,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: Like if you listen to like the power ratings, guys,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: they basically will tell you the Lakers are probably barely
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: cracking the top ten teams in the NBA or so
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: so not an elite Lakers team by any means, so
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: which I like because hopefully that means they won't win
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: the championship. But that's uh, those are my thoughts on
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: that game. And that is it. Man, It's gonna do it.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Uh dirty sock, what's up? Man? Come in right at
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: the end of the show. That's gonna do it. The
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: two plays that I have today are college basketball Old
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Dominion plus the points and we have a very non
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: uninteresting uh split bet make your own plus one puck
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: line on the San Jose Sharks in hockey. Again, the
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: line is dropping quite a bit though, because the money
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with me on that one. So if you
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: want to play money line, just go for it. You
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: can do that as well. I don't hate that as well,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: because obviously I'm saying san Antonio, obviously san Antonio San
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: Jose has a decent shot to win. All those different
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: Spanish guys Antonio and Antonio sounds Italian though, Antonio and
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: Jose Jose alright, But yes, obviously I'm saying San Jose
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: at least has a decent shot to get that game.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I forgot to fully mention it.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: Part of the reason I'm wearing this Red Sox jersey
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: is because they finally made a free agent move and
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: they signed ron Your Suarez, who I was. You know,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: I keep saying he's gonna regress the last two years.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: He had a really hot start to the season and
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: then he wasn't as good later in the season, but overall,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: he had a good season last year, and then in
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have some major starting pitching deficits, so
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: I actually liked the move for them to get Suarez,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: and Suarez was facing good lineups in he was in
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park in Philadelphia, so he's used to
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: pitching against good offenses in a hitter friendly park, so
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: that's good. Makes the transition of pitching him Fenway easier.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Although he is a lefty, so he's gonna be facing
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of righties that could just pull the ball.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: But he's a he's an ext dream ground ball pitcher too.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: He pitches to soft contact, so that's actually good. So Breslo, Yeah,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: I mean he is. He's made some bad decisions. People
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: give him a lot of shit, but this one I
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: don't think is a bad decision. He has gone after
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: some pictures that are like he likes these extreme ground
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: ball guys, so BeO is actually one of them, so
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: it kind of counteracts like the fact that the pictures
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: aren't like great power pitchers or anything like that, and
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: it helps to induce a lot of ground balls. And
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: Fenway problem is the Red Sox have a horrible fielding offense.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: So I know I'm going on a Red Sox tangent
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: now as a fan here, but the Red Sox have
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: to fix their fielding in the infield man, and now
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: they lost Bregman. I mean, it's not good in the
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: Red Sox infield right now. They got to figure something out.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: Although I guess with Bregman gone, I guess probably. I
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: guess Meyer is gonna wind up at third base. Maybe
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they're gonna do, but they need
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: better fielding man when they're gonna be inducing all these
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: ground balls. That's their thing. They got a bolster the
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: field name, but yeah, I mean they also got like
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: I think Harrison is also a Yeah, is it Harrison, No,
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: it's a Hicks. The other guy they got in the
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: in that trade was a ground ball pitcher, but I forget.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe they got rid of Hicks already. I don't even know,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: but whatever, the part of the dev's trade there, whatever.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: But I like the move to get Suarez, even though
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: I have had my questions related to him, but I
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: think it's it's a good move for the situation the
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are in in the stadium that they play
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: in them whatever, and he's kind of an under the
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: radar pitcher. So the Red Sox rotation is a lot
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: better than it was last year. Okay, last year was
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet and a bunch of garbage like BeO. His
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: advanced metrics tell you he's not as good as his
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: ZRRA looked. Having BeO is the number two, I don't
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: like that, and now he's the number four, so I
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: can kind of take the pressure off him a little bit.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: So I like that because the Red Sox went out
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: and they got Sonny Gray and Suarez. They're both veterans.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: They both have a good history, although I worry that
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: Gray is too old though, and Gray sometimes does have
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: horrible games where he gets lit up, but overall he's
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: been decent and I've liked him in the past. He
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: was good for the Twins. But I don't know. Man
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: he's pitching in a hitter front the ballpark now, so
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll see about Gray, but I don't
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: mind it. Red Sox rotation is definitely the best that
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: it's been in the last several years or so, so
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: we will see, and then they have their pick guy
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: of the other guys as far as who like the
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: remainder of like the rotation. They have a deep starting pitching.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: They have deep starting pitching personnel right now because they
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: still have the young guys totally. Who looks like they're
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: trying to turn him into a bullpen arm just because
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: he throws really hard. I don't know. They might trade him,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: which I wouldn't like because I love I like big
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: power pitchers like him. But I don't know. But the
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Red Sox picked up Ovi EIGHTO, who is kind of
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: an under the radar guy who I haven't really been
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: impressed by him, but I think he's dealt with injuries
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: and whatever. We'll see what he could do. He might
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: be the last guy in the starting rotation. Harrison could
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: be Connolly early. I like that guy, young, impressive pitcher.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: I think they got to hang on to him man
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: and not trade him. He looks like he can do it.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: He looks good, so he might be the next young
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: arm in the rotation. We'll see man, But that's a yeah,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. You guys don't want me to listen to
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: you guys don't want to listen to me talking about
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. But Kyle would, Well, Kyle might. You're you're
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: a Red Sox fan, Is that right? I forget. We
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: do have some Red Sox guys and you're some local guys.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe Red Sox making a move for Bolba Schett. I
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. Uh. He's one of the
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: most expensive free agents, although the Red Sox they probably
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: have the money to do it if they want to,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: and that would also Is he a good fielder? I
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: don't know. I know he's a good hitter. I know
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: he plays the infield, but I don't know if he's
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: a good fielder or not. But of course, if the
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: Red Sox make the move for him, they got to
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: figure out what are they gonna do between him and Story?
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: Like are they gonna move Story to second base? I
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: don't really know what they Maybe they would do that,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, I mean I would not
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: hated if they got Baschett. So yeah, Tyson, what's up man,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: Bobachett will bring all the other ladies out to the
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: pack as well, bring out the h the pink hats
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: again there and they'll they'll come out for for Boba Schett,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and Celtics. Hell yeah, man, But not Bruins
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: and Patriots. I've had a love hate relationship with the Patriots.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: So I was a hat hater of the Patriots, a Hatriot,
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: as you guys know, because I hate Belichick and Brady.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: So I hated the Patriots for a long time. I
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: don't really hate them right now. Uh. I don't believe
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: in them as far as whatever they're gonna do this year.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: But that's, you know, sort of beside the point. But yes,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: you were for all of the above, all right, Hell
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: yeah Bruins. Uh. I love going to Bruins games. Man,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: It's just it's the rowdy hockey crowd. I like that.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: You're just not huge hockey events. You should go to
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: a Bruins game. But would you probably have though, But
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: if I think if you go to a Bruins game,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: it I think that can help convert people to hockey fans.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: Because the environment is just crazy with all the drunk,
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: big bearded Bruins fans that are there. It's a crazy environment.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: It's really fun to go to these games in Ted Godden,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: Titty Goden. It was fun going back in the day
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: to Boston gotten too, man. Although my dad doesn't really
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: like hockey, so he mostly just took me to He
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: mostly took me to Celtics and Red Sox games. That
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: was the thing that I did with my dad, more
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: Red Sox than Celtics because it was cheaper. Because my dad,
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: he's in inexpensive type of guy. He's like, we're gonna
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: get bleachers seats, are gonna sit way out in the bleachers,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna go to all these Red Sox games
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: for like it was probably like ten to twenty bucks
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: a pop back then for those tickets. Yes, the live
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: hockey games rule. I love going to the playoff games
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: and hopefully I can fund that habit again if I'm
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: gonna want to do it this year, because last two
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: years I've gone to one game in every playoff series
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: for the Celtics, last three years actually Celtics and Bruins,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: I've gone to one game in every single playoff series
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: for both of them. Of course, Bruins weren't in the
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year, but I've been to a lot of
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: those games, man, and it is fun, so sob what's up? Man? Yes,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: the German game. That's a good point. Orlando has three
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: German players. The Wagner brothers don't really know about. DaSilva,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: Memphis coach coached in Germany. Those are interesting things to note.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe Orlando. Will Orlando play harder for their German players.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know, like, will they get more, will they
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: have people in the stands rooting for them? They might?
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: That's a good point. I like Memphis in the game,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: mostly because of the injured player spot that I mentioned
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: with Wagner coming back. But you're right, like these guys
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: are Germans. That's probably why Orlando's playing in Germany, so
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: they might have a big crowd. The German crowd is
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: probably gonna root for Orlando because they have German players,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: So you're right, that might be an angle there. So
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: I would worry about that Memphis play for that reason.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: All Right, that's gonna do it, guys, Let's get some wins. Say,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: let's fucking bounce back. Haven't been on the greatest run
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: the last couple of days, and I think we've gotten
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit unlucky as well. Luck is part of it,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: but we got a small card. Today's ugly college basketball Today.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: Let's do it, and then I'll be back to talk
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: all the big games that are coming up this weekend
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: and stuff as well. Friday should be a light day,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: but Friday night I have to do my college basketball show,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: which takes a ton out of me. Man, so I
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: probably should starting edy caving in a rolier than I do.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. Go Socks, Celtics and Bruins. Baby,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: let's go. I'm gonna get all the New York people
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: are all gonna hate me. What can you do? Man,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: I gotta support the team, man, we got to root
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: for the team. Gotta support the team. Hey man, I'm
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: just trying to support the team. You sit down, You're
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: disturbing everybody. Yeah, because you're a range and you know
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: I'm messing with their heads. All right, that's gonna do it.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: Everybody learns his tone on Twitter, and learn it on Instagram,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: like subscribe, give me good reviews here on the channel. Uh,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: listen on Audio, give me good reviews over there, Apple
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: Spotify that helps me out. Covered in you because my
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube, getting that back up to date again.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash learn the tone for some bonus
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: content that I know, I really gotta. I gotta get
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: onto that got I gotta get back into that man
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: and treat the Patreons better. I apologize, I gotta do it,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: but having to do I said I would do requests
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: and I am gonna do them, but having to do
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: ones that I don't know that well does take me
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: a while. So that's what I gotta do. And then
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: check out the Loser cast as well. We had a
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: show on Tuesday. It was fun again. You can vote
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: for my loser again, which was Victoria edel or Adele,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: however you pronounce their name. The journalist for People magazine
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: who and she's morbidly obese by the way as well.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: And she wrote that horrible, scathing article about Scott Adams
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: as his death announcement, calling him I don't know, a
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: racist and volgar and whatever, calling him disgraced, like shut up,
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: like I don't know the man he just died. He
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: seemed like a good dude. Scott Adams. I like Adams man.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: I liked that he he converted to Christianity in his
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: final days. Man, hopefully he went up to the big
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: man man. Yeah, I like Scott. I prayed for him.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: I prayed for him, you know. Yeah. I mean I
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: was somewhat of a fan of Dilbert back in the day.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: I thought the comics were good. And then he entered
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: the arena of politics, and I thought he made some
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: good points breaking down why Trump won In twenty sixteen,
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: he wrote a book about it. Interesting. I think he
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: was mostly correct about his thoughts on that. And then
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: Naya became a commentator and whatever, and I agreed with
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: him more often than I didn't. I would say, so, yeah,
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: rip man, it sucks. Cancer sucks. You know, it is
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: what it is. I think he handled it well, and
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: he just refused to stop doing what he was doing.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: He's like, I'm just gonna do my show until it happens.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: I think he did an episode of his show like
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: that last day, and then he was gonna do another one,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: like right after he died, so like he was planning
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: on doing another one. So yeah, don't want to bring
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: everybody down. But anyway, what was I? Oh, yeah, that's right,
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: loser cast. Yeah, go vote for that stupid bitch as
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: the loser, Victoria edel Adele. There were some good loser
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: choices this week from my co host, though, so definitely
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: some definitely a tough choice there, but let's do it man.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys like my new arsenal of jerseys that
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: I've been wearing. I don't know if I'm gonna wear
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: one every time, but you know, I'm mixing them in,
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: mixing them up. I will see. It's gonna do it
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: for now. I'll be back tomorrow. Peace, guys,