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'Inexplicable' Lack of US Response to Russia Bounties: Stavridis · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
0:17
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for a
0:21
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion right now, where you're joined by Admiral Jane
0:24
Speaker 1: Stavita's calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He's retired US Navy admiral
0:29
Speaker 1: and former military commander of NATA, and we have to
0:31
Speaker 1: talk about the latest issue coming out, a very disturbing
0:34
Speaker 1: issue where reports that Russia is providing bounties to Taliban
0:38
Speaker 1: fighters for American soldiers. And there's absolutely no one better
0:42
Speaker 1: to speak to this issue than Admiral Stavrida's. Admiral, thank
0:47
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. We really appreciate you
0:49
Speaker 1: taking the time here. Just give us your sense of
0:51
Speaker 1: what is going on with this story here. Do you
0:54
Speaker 1: give it credence and if so, what should the response be. Unfortunately,
0:59
Speaker 1: I do give it credence, and of course i'm I'm
1:01
Speaker 1: very close to this issue, having commanded that mission in
1:05
Speaker 1: Afghanistan for four years. As you know, Paul, it's a
1:08
Speaker 1: NATO mission, and over that period of time we saw
1:12
Speaker 1: Russia attempt to disrupt the US and NATO activities. There
1:19
Speaker 1: nothing as egregious or as shocking as offering bounties on
1:24
Speaker 1: the heads of individual US soldiers. So this is behavior
1:29
Speaker 1: that as well beyond the pale. And I will tell
1:32
Speaker 1: you this, if that had occurred on my watch as
1:36
Speaker 1: afore star officer, if I saw that intelligence, I would
1:39
Speaker 1: have immediately sent a flare up to my boss, the
1:43
Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense at the time, Robert Gates, and I
1:46
Speaker 1: assure you he would have been on the phone to
1:48
Speaker 1: the President in one minute saying we are seeing this.
1:52
Speaker 1: This demands the strongest possible response. And it's inexplicable to
1:57
Speaker 1: me why we have not responded to this uh serious
2:03
Speaker 1: act of a real hostility from the Russian Federation. So, Admiral,
2:08
Speaker 1: is there any explanation for why we haven't. Is it possible,
2:13
Speaker 1: for example, that the President and Vice President were not
2:15
Speaker 1: told about it, or were not told sufficiently urgently enough
2:19
Speaker 1: for them to take it seriously. It's hard to believe that. Um. Now,
2:25
Speaker 1: let's be blunt about it. The president is not an
2:29
Speaker 1: avid consumer of intelligence. He's not a deep reader by
2:33
Speaker 1: all accounts. Uh, He's sort of sporadic in his attention
2:37
Speaker 1: to these briefs. I suppose it's conceivable that it was
2:42
Speaker 1: presented to him, and I don't see anybody denying that
2:46
Speaker 1: it was presented to him, at least in the written
2:49
Speaker 1: form of the Presidential Daily brief. Um, it's conceivable. I
2:54
Speaker 1: suppose that he didn't focus on it, but I just
2:58
Speaker 1: can't imagine a president the United States being told that
3:02
Speaker 1: our troops were being effectively have a bull's eye painted
3:06
Speaker 1: on them and would not respond in the very strongest
3:09
Speaker 1: terms possible if it was not given to him. I
3:13
Speaker 1: think there are some hard questions to be asked about
3:15
Speaker 1: the intelligence community why they did not drive it directly
3:20
Speaker 1: at the president. That's why I'm I'm pleased to see
3:23
Speaker 1: Vonnie that the Congress is getting involved. We need to
3:26
Speaker 1: know the facts. When was it presented, If it was presented,
3:29
Speaker 1: what was the president's response, Why have we done nothing
3:32
Speaker 1: to date? Those are good questions for oversight from the Congress.
3:36
Speaker 1: I think we'll see that in the next few days.
3:39
Speaker 1: So ad. We're starting to see more and more news
3:41
Speaker 1: of this UM and columns like the one you you
3:44
Speaker 1: wrote today about this issue. It's becoming much more apparent
3:48
Speaker 1: that people are paying attention to it. What do you
3:51
Speaker 1: believe should be an appropriate response here by the United States,
3:55
Speaker 1: if in fact there will be one, Yeah, Paul, if
3:58
Speaker 1: these reports are true, and I think we're going to
4:01
Speaker 1: find that they are. This thing has all the finger
4:04
Speaker 1: prints of the g r U, which is the very shadowy,
4:08
Speaker 1: darkest portion of the Russian intelligence network. And of course
4:12
Speaker 1: Russia is dominated by Vladimir Putin a form of KGB spymaster.
4:18
Speaker 1: So what we ought to say to ourselves is what
4:21
Speaker 1: comes next? What do we do next? I would I
4:23
Speaker 1: would basket our response as follows. Diplomatically, we should expel
4:27
Speaker 1: the Russian ambassador if this is true, UM, they will
4:31
Speaker 1: probably expel the US ambassador, but we need to send
4:34
Speaker 1: the strongest diplomatic signal we can. Secondly, on the military side,
4:38
Speaker 1: we had to cease all talk of withdrawing ten thousand
4:42
Speaker 1: troops from Europe. You may have seen those reports just
4:45
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. That would be a big mistake.
4:47
Speaker 1: We have to more aggressively operate our ships up in
4:50
Speaker 1: the Black Sea, for example, demonstrating militarily or displeasure with this,
4:55
Speaker 1: and economically, we ought to look at another round of sanctions,
4:58
Speaker 1: and I think it's probably time to look at personal
5:01
Speaker 1: sanctions applied to Vladimir Putin, Sergei Labrov, the Minister of
5:05
Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs, Schweigen, the Minister of Defense UM. Any of
5:11
Speaker 1: them almost certainly would have been aware of this and
5:14
Speaker 1: continenced it, And I think that we need to send
5:17
Speaker 1: the strongest possible signal that it's unacceptable behavior. Finally, we
5:21
Speaker 1: are to be circling our allies together, uh In. While
5:25
Speaker 1: we are to protect sources and methods of this intelligence Baul,
5:29
Speaker 1: we need to publicly say what we know so that
5:32
Speaker 1: our allies can join us in responding to this behavior. Yeah,
5:36
Speaker 1: I mean, let's be clear. This is intelligence gathered in
5:38
Speaker 1: twenty that's this year, and it was drived in part
5:43
Speaker 1: from debriefings of captured Taliban militants, and officials are telling
5:47
Speaker 1: the a P as well that disintelligence and these operatives
5:51
Speaker 1: were gathered from opposite ends of the country and from
5:53
Speaker 1: separate tribes. So it does seem like it's not just
5:55
Speaker 1: you know, one potential you know mischievous Halivan operative telling
6:01
Speaker 1: a lie. There was definitely at least more than one
6:03
Speaker 1: instance of this, and in different places. If that's the case,
6:07
Speaker 1: then Admiral, I mean post election, is there any you know,
6:13
Speaker 1: any justice for for the American people and for people
6:16
Speaker 1: who are serving, you know, for the United States South
6:18
Speaker 1: America if this had been the case during a previous presidency. Indeed, Um, bonnie,
6:25
Speaker 1: and you put your finger on an important point here
6:27
Speaker 1: that is not getting a lot of discussion, which is,
6:30
Speaker 1: what does this due to the peace process in Afghanistan?
6:34
Speaker 1: And what does this tell us about the Taliban with
6:36
Speaker 1: whom we are negotiating a peace agreement trying to reduce
6:41
Speaker 1: the troops strength there. Even further, Um, does this tell
6:45
Speaker 1: us that we can trust the Taliban? I don't think so.
6:48
Speaker 1: And in fact, one of the tippers in the intelligence
6:51
Speaker 1: that's been at least reported in the press is half
6:54
Speaker 1: a million dollars in US cash. So all of this
7:00
Speaker 1: needs to be examined closely in the context of what's
7:04
Speaker 1: happening in Afghanistan and reliability at the Taliban. And to
7:07
Speaker 1: your last point, Um, in particular, we owe an explanation
7:11
Speaker 1: to the families of those who may have been killed
7:16
Speaker 1: in response to this bounty program. And there are some
7:20
Speaker 1: reports that UH circle in on a couple of incidents
7:24
Speaker 1: with improvised explosive devices that killed servicemen that may have
7:29
Speaker 1: been part of this bounty program. That's real blood on
7:33
Speaker 1: Russian hands as well as Taliban hands. Admiral Stevid is
7:36
Speaker 1: always wonderful to speak with you. That is Admiral James
7:39
Speaker 1: Stavrida's retarded US Navy admiral, of course, also former Supreme
7:43
Speaker 1: Allied Commander NATO and Boomberg opinion columnists we should mentioned,
7:47
Speaker 1: as well as banks, their branches remain shot. Consumer trends
7:53
Speaker 1: have had to change. Even if you were the type
7:55
Speaker 1: who didn't want to say lodge a check online or
7:58
Speaker 1: via your mobile phone, or go on and check your balance,
8:02
Speaker 1: you might be now several weeks and months into this pandemic.
8:05
Speaker 1: Let's talk to somebody who knows a lot about pivoting
8:07
Speaker 1: the business to try and cater better to customers. Brendan
8:11
Speaker 1: Coughlin is head of consumer Banking at Citizens Bank, and
8:14
Speaker 1: we welcome home now. Brendan, what data can you give
8:18
Speaker 1: us about how consumers are shifting their appetites for services
8:22
Speaker 1: from banks according to what they're doing with your bank. Yeah, well,
8:26
Speaker 1: thanks for having me on and appreciate it. We're seeing
8:29
Speaker 1: a very dramatic change in consumer behavior. Obviously the move
8:33
Speaker 1: towards digitization and financial services was well earned away pre COVID,
8:38
Speaker 1: but we're really seeing a very dramatic acceleration of those trends.
8:43
Speaker 1: We had at our trough, our branches were down about
8:46
Speaker 1: fifty in walk in traffic. Now that's rebounded a bit,
8:51
Speaker 1: but it's now kind of settling in it maybe down now.
8:55
Speaker 1: Compare that to uh, the ongoing prior COVID trends, which
8:59
Speaker 1: was found about seven to eight percent a year, so
9:02
Speaker 1: more than a doubling of a slowdown in foot traffic.
9:05
Speaker 1: So what's picked up. Our digital activity has picked up
9:08
Speaker 1: more than twenty and really across all different age segments.
9:13
Speaker 1: So we've seen a massive flock to digital banking um
9:17
Speaker 1: and an acceleration of our consumers behaviors in banking and
9:21
Speaker 1: multiple channels. So Brendan, does it suggest that the Citizens
9:26
Speaker 1: Bank and other commercial banks will continue to reduce their
9:30
Speaker 1: branch footprint. Yeah, I think most banks and Citizens is
9:35
Speaker 1: certainly one of them. We have reduced over the past
9:38
Speaker 1: four years above fourteen percent of our branches, UH, and
9:42
Speaker 1: we've consolidated them where we've had duplicative points at presence
9:46
Speaker 1: in our network. We've also taken down the square footage
9:49
Speaker 1: quite a bit from an average of four thousand square
9:51
Speaker 1: feet to two thousand square feet, really repositioning them as
9:55
Speaker 1: advice centers versus transactional centers. And I see that trend
9:59
Speaker 1: can hinuing our customers. If you think about a non
10:03
Speaker 1: financial services analogy, most all US consumers got really trained
10:09
Speaker 1: on home delivery for groceries over the past handful of months,
10:12
Speaker 1: and they've sort of learned that convenience, and you find
10:15
Speaker 1: it hard to believe that folks are going to re
10:17
Speaker 1: enter and go back to the grocery store twice a week.
10:21
Speaker 1: And the same thing is happening in financial services, where
10:23
Speaker 1: out of the forcing function of the pandemic, consumers that
10:27
Speaker 1: were slow adopters to digital have now learned the convenience
10:30
Speaker 1: of digital and will do their day to day transactions
10:34
Speaker 1: UH that way. They will still want to use brick
10:37
Speaker 1: and mortar, but much differently so morbid advice center will
10:40
Speaker 1: come in for life events, not day to day cash
10:43
Speaker 1: check cashing and as such, so we do see the
10:46
Speaker 1: reduction of our physical presence reducing over the next handful
10:49
Speaker 1: of years. So Brendan talked us about flows and amounts.
10:54
Speaker 1: Are people depositing, our people withdrawing? Are they borrowing? Yeah,
10:59
Speaker 1: so can Sumer borrowing has certainly slowed, with the exception
11:04
Speaker 1: of mortgage Obviously, mortgage refinancing with rates as low as
11:08
Speaker 1: they are right now is really taken off, as well
11:11
Speaker 1: as student loan refinancing with rates the slow those are.
11:15
Speaker 1: Those are the parts of consumer borrowing that really pick up,
11:17
Speaker 1: and we're seeing an explosion in both of those categories.
11:21
Speaker 1: Um On the deposit side, given so many customers have
11:26
Speaker 1: taken forbearance, which means they're not making their monthly loan payment.
11:30
Speaker 1: Combined with the the effects of the stimulus, we're seeing
11:33
Speaker 1: a lot of inflows in deposits now. Much of that
11:37
Speaker 1: is still sticking around in the banking system, but we
11:40
Speaker 1: are seeing very significant returns to life from our consumer base. So,
11:44
Speaker 1: as an example, at the trough of COVID, our debit
11:49
Speaker 1: cards spending, we saw a reduction in thirty five year
11:52
Speaker 1: over a year that has all but recovered back to normal.
11:56
Speaker 1: It's only down two or three percentage points year every year,
11:59
Speaker 1: and so we're seeing return of day to day spending
12:02
Speaker 1: all the way back to the averages from prior. What
12:05
Speaker 1: we're not seeing is those big ticket spending, travel vacations,
12:10
Speaker 1: Those are still not coming back, and so that money
12:13
Speaker 1: is actually sitting in the banking system and consumer the
12:16
Speaker 1: savings rate for consumers, uh such has never been as
12:19
Speaker 1: high as it is right now. Brennan, talk to us
12:21
Speaker 1: about some of the credit quality. We have so many
12:24
Speaker 1: Americans unfortunately out of work here and we're gonna get
12:27
Speaker 1: another employment number this Thursday will be a grim number
12:31
Speaker 1: once again. What are you seeing in terms of credit quality? Yeah,
12:34
Speaker 1: that's a million dollar question. I would tell you that
12:37
Speaker 1: um our portfolio of consumer credit has about seven percent
12:42
Speaker 1: of our portfolio is in a forbearance status, so they're
12:46
Speaker 1: taking a payment holiday, if you will, is still in
12:50
Speaker 1: their normal payment schedules. The customers that are not in forbearance,
12:55
Speaker 1: we have not seen a meaningful spike in delinquency whatsoever,
12:59
Speaker 1: and so very very healthy dynamics when you look at
13:02
Speaker 1: the book that's in forbearance. So the seven percent or so,
13:05
Speaker 1: we're seeing some very interesting signals. So or so of
13:10
Speaker 1: that portfolio is still actively making monthly payments even though
13:14
Speaker 1: they've asked us to go on a payment break. So
13:17
Speaker 1: we believe that a meaningful portion of that base is
13:20
Speaker 1: using this forbearance as a safety net just in case
13:24
Speaker 1: and the uncertainty of the market. Um, many of those
13:27
Speaker 1: customers will start rolling off their nine forbearance here in
13:30
Speaker 1: the in the coming months, and so we'll have greater
13:33
Speaker 1: levels of insight in terms of how many of those
13:36
Speaker 1: folks landed on their feet or if they still need
13:38
Speaker 1: some more support. Brandon, thanks so much for joining us.
13:40
Speaker 1: We appreciate your input. Kind of you boots on the
13:44
Speaker 1: ground there with the Consumer and Consumer Lending brand and Conflin,
13:47
Speaker 1: President of Consumer Deposits and Lending at Citizens Bank. They
13:50
Speaker 1: are based in Providence, Rhode Island, giving us some real
13:54
Speaker 1: time views on kind of what consumers are doing in
13:56
Speaker 1: terms of uh commercial banking. Obviously, it's all that technolo
14:00
Speaker 1: lergy and digitalization of people embracing the technology, embracing the apps,
14:04
Speaker 1: perhaps more so than they ever have. And then the
14:07
Speaker 1: question what impact will that have on a consumer banking
14:10
Speaker 1: going forward? A lot on the president's fate these days,
14:15
Speaker 1: when isn't there but it's particularly hot in the presidential chair.
14:20
Speaker 1: I would imagine these days, let's bring in somebody knows
14:23
Speaker 1: a lot about what's going on, both coronavirus wise, national
14:25
Speaker 1: security wise, and re election wise. Wendy Schiller is professor
14:29
Speaker 1: of political science and public policy at Brown University. Wendy, welcome.
14:34
Speaker 1: As the virus continues to spread through the states that
14:37
Speaker 1: already reopened, will we ever get a federal response or
14:41
Speaker 1: has that now passed? Well? Vunny, I think that the
14:45
Speaker 1: question of a coordinated federal response, I think that window
14:49
Speaker 1: of opportunity has passed, at least in this phase, because
14:52
Speaker 1: governors have taken upon themselves. They had to, you know,
14:55
Speaker 1: for the last couple of months to do this themselves,
14:58
Speaker 1: anything from testing, getting PPE equipment, UH to mandating stay
15:02
Speaker 1: at home and face mask wearing, face covering wearing. So
15:05
Speaker 1: the governors have already used federalism, you know, as maximum
15:09
Speaker 1: as they can because they felt, as some of them
15:11
Speaker 1: have been quoted as saying that they had no other choice.
15:14
Speaker 1: So I don't think that there's an opportunity to rein
15:16
Speaker 1: that back in, but certainly as we go into vaccine
15:19
Speaker 1: development and vaccine distribution, I think there the federal government
15:23
Speaker 1: still has a pretty strong role to play, all right,
15:25
Speaker 1: So Whendy, is there any reason to have confidence that
15:28
Speaker 1: the federal government, the Trump administration, will play a coordinating,
15:33
Speaker 1: supportive role in the development and ultimately distribution of a vaccine.
15:39
Speaker 1: You know, this is an interesting Trump Paul has had
15:42
Speaker 1: a sort of a love hate with the pharmaceuticals. Right.
15:45
Speaker 1: Trump is been trying to push for lower pharmaceutical pricing.
15:49
Speaker 1: He has since he got into office. He hasn't been
15:51
Speaker 1: chiply successful, but he has made it part of his agenda.
15:55
Speaker 1: So I think the opportunity to sort of tell the
15:57
Speaker 1: big five. I think there's five big company is developing vaccines.
16:01
Speaker 1: You know what to do, how to do it, and
16:02
Speaker 1: when to do it. It's a moment that Trump may
16:05
Speaker 1: want to cease and try to sort of show his
16:08
Speaker 1: back in command. But that requires engagement with the President
16:11
Speaker 1: on this issue, and he's just been unwilling to really
16:14
Speaker 1: acknowledge how bad it is. We've seen some signs this
16:18
Speaker 1: week that's changing certainly. Right. President Pence wearing a mask
16:21
Speaker 1: while he walked into a room at a podium, took
16:24
Speaker 1: a mask off, put it back on, said everybody should
16:27
Speaker 1: wear a mask I believe this yesterday. That's a big
16:29
Speaker 1: term of administration. So if Trump can ease his way
16:32
Speaker 1: back into this conversation negotiating with the homaceutical companies on
16:35
Speaker 1: vaccine pricing in particular, that would be something I think
16:39
Speaker 1: to the president's credit. Does he hang in there until
16:42
Speaker 1: election and beyond in some way, Wendy, I mean, we
16:45
Speaker 1: saw a lot of downvalid changes recently in the more
16:49
Speaker 1: local elections, and there's a lot that doesn't vote well
16:52
Speaker 1: for President Trump in the next election. Yes, But the
16:55
Speaker 1: thing is too thinks this is a man who's declared
16:57
Speaker 1: bankruptcy multiple times. He is not a water people thought,
17:01
Speaker 1: you know, when he didn't do that well in the
17:02
Speaker 1: primary season, he might get out, but he's I don't
17:05
Speaker 1: think he wants to leave. I think he wants to
17:06
Speaker 1: wait and see if somebody can beat him. And that's
17:08
Speaker 1: a really up in the air question. It's fifty fifty.
17:11
Speaker 1: It depends on turnout, depends on swing states. We are seeing,
17:14
Speaker 1: you know, some demographics, like voters of the age of
17:17
Speaker 1: sixty five, for example, have swung towards the Republicans the
17:20
Speaker 1: last couple of the presidential elections. They're now basically tied
17:23
Speaker 1: slight edge to Trump. That's a loss about seven or
17:25
Speaker 1: eight points advantage. That's a big deal. They turned out
17:28
Speaker 1: in the highest numbers. So if those demographics switch, I
17:32
Speaker 1: think the president has a real challenge. But if he
17:34
Speaker 1: can get them back, um, I think it's still he's
17:37
Speaker 1: still very competitive. It's four months out and nobody expected
17:40
Speaker 1: him to win the first time. So why is she
17:41
Speaker 1: Donald Trump in his head think he's going to lose
17:43
Speaker 1: it the second time. So when let's let's go down
17:47
Speaker 1: to the Senate. Here is the Senate if if President
17:51
Speaker 1: Trump continues to pull weekly and and and perhaps lose
17:55
Speaker 1: the election, perhaps by a you know, significant margin, is
17:59
Speaker 1: the Republican uh control of the Senate? Is that really
18:03
Speaker 1: at risk? It depends how he loses. I think it
18:06
Speaker 1: is at risk for two different scenarios. One is that
18:09
Speaker 1: disaffective Republicans don't want to vote for the Democrats, but
18:11
Speaker 1: they can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. Trump fatigues
18:13
Speaker 1: that's in they just don't vote. That's the problem in
18:16
Speaker 1: some of the key swing states because they don't get
18:18
Speaker 1: out the door or they don't mail their ballot back in.
18:20
Speaker 1: And so the Republican candidates for Senate don't win and
18:23
Speaker 1: and ride those coattails. So that's one scenario. The other
18:26
Speaker 1: is that there's a personally unpopular Republican candidate, like in Kansas,
18:30
Speaker 1: co Back wins the primary in August. He's very unpopular
18:33
Speaker 1: in Kansas. They've got a moderate Democrat challenging him. So
18:36
Speaker 1: that's one surprise state. Montana can probably go for Trump,
18:38
Speaker 1: but see both might beat Steve Dane. So you can
18:41
Speaker 1: see a scenario in fact where the Democrats could take
18:44
Speaker 1: the Senate back, you know, narrow margin, and Trump could
18:47
Speaker 1: still win. You could win in Kansas and win in Montana,
18:49
Speaker 1: but the Republicans could lose the Senate. So the Russia
18:52
Speaker 1: bounty story, Wendy, does that go away like a lot
18:55
Speaker 1: of other stories that you know popped up national security
18:58
Speaker 1: wise over the last couple of years, or is this bigger? Well, Monny,
19:01
Speaker 1: we're gonna need somebody who's in the Trump administration to
19:04
Speaker 1: say yes. The President was briefed on this as early
19:06
Speaker 1: as February or March. He knew what was happening. He
19:08
Speaker 1: didn't do anything about it. We haven't had that yet.
19:11
Speaker 1: And a they said, well, the intelligence wasn't good enough
19:13
Speaker 1: to brief President Trump. Or Vice President Pence. Now we're
19:16
Speaker 1: hearing that he was given a memo. Did he read
19:18
Speaker 1: the memo? Certainly it does not help bring back the
19:21
Speaker 1: Russia connection. And with the military right now, it's a
19:24
Speaker 1: very fraught relationship between the president of the military and
19:26
Speaker 1: the idea that he would let that go. You know,
19:29
Speaker 1: that's something that would be hard to swallow for some
19:31
Speaker 1: other part of the Trump voting base. So I think
19:34
Speaker 1: it's another problem for the president in terms of evoting
19:37
Speaker 1: his core strength, which is not a majority, but it's
19:40
Speaker 1: enough to keep him in the game. And if that
19:42
Speaker 1: starts to go, I think the pillars of senior citizens,
19:45
Speaker 1: on the military and disaffected people who are unemployed right now,
19:49
Speaker 1: I think that's just a big battle for the president.
19:52
Speaker 1: It's got to win some of those people back to
19:53
Speaker 1: stay in the game and stay competitive. So when the
19:56
Speaker 1: former Vice President Biden, we're four months out to the election,
20:00
Speaker 1: he's kept in it, I would say, an exceptionally low
20:02
Speaker 1: profile here, and maybe it's by design. What do you think,
20:06
Speaker 1: uh Mr Biden needs to do over the next four
20:08
Speaker 1: months or does he just sit back and let the
20:11
Speaker 1: Trump presidency kind of implode upon itself. Yeah, I'm against
20:15
Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom I've been saying on to you and
20:18
Speaker 1: to other people. You know, he's got to get out
20:20
Speaker 1: of the basement. Biden's in the basement is becoming kind
20:22
Speaker 1: of a joke. And I understand that. You know, you
20:24
Speaker 1: can let Trump implode, but that still gives Trump the
20:27
Speaker 1: opportunity to rebound because Trump controls the agenda, he controls
20:31
Speaker 1: the public conversation. It's all about Trump. So what if
20:34
Speaker 1: Trump start us to recalibrate actually and do better then
20:37
Speaker 1: Biden scrambling to make his presence known. So I think
20:40
Speaker 1: it's a mistake to stay in the basement. And I
20:42
Speaker 1: think that the problem for the Biden administrations. They keep
20:45
Speaker 1: focusing on the competency of the VP choice. There's got
20:48
Speaker 1: to be compared to round the country. That just reminds
20:50
Speaker 1: people that Biden might make it through his first term.
20:53
Speaker 1: It just to reminds people Biden's seventy seven. So I
20:55
Speaker 1: think that's a mistake too. You know, focus on strategic
20:58
Speaker 1: collectoral importance for the v P just like always, and
21:01
Speaker 1: start campaigning on an issue. What are you gonna do
21:03
Speaker 1: about the economy, What are you can do about COVID?
21:05
Speaker 1: You know, you let Trump be the bad guy, and
21:08
Speaker 1: you know you benefits from that right now, but that
21:11
Speaker 1: also gives them the opportunity to be the good guy
21:13
Speaker 1: in September October, if the economy does start to pick
21:15
Speaker 1: up and we do start get a handle on COVID.
21:17
Speaker 1: So I think it's a huge gamble on the part
21:19
Speaker 1: of the Biden campaign. Wendy ten seconds, who's the front
21:21
Speaker 1: runner for VP? Pick right now? For Widen, the elite
21:26
Speaker 1: gossip is, of course Kamala Harris. But I think if
21:29
Speaker 1: you go back to basic politics, Val Demmings is from
21:31
Speaker 1: a swing state, which is Florida, So you go with
21:34
Speaker 1: a woman of color, I think that you still have
21:36
Speaker 1: to go back to the basics if you want to
21:37
Speaker 1: try to win this election. Wendy, thank you so much
21:40
Speaker 1: for joining us. Always always great content. We always appreciate it.
21:43
Speaker 1: Whendy Shild, Professor of political science and public Policy at
21:46
Speaker 1: Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. Finding just some great
21:50
Speaker 1: stuff there from Wendy as always, And there's just so
21:53
Speaker 1: much going on as it relates to this upcoming election. Yeah,
21:56
Speaker 1: interesting to hear her say that the Bell Demmings might
21:58
Speaker 1: be the topic right now. At least, of course, you
22:02
Speaker 1: know that there's a little while to go, but at
22:04
Speaker 1: some point we're going to get an announcement. Yeah, it's
22:06
Speaker 1: just amazing here where again four months after the election
22:08
Speaker 1: and we're hardly talking about it. But that will change.
22:11
Speaker 1: I'm sure. It seems like, you know, everybody's talking about
22:17
Speaker 1: treatments for this virus and potential vaccines. Uh. That's why
22:21
Speaker 1: I think we're so fortunate to have Sam Fazeli kind
22:23
Speaker 1: of at our beck and call if you will. San
22:25
Speaker 1: Fazeli is one of the top healthcare analysts in the
22:28
Speaker 1: city of London for Bloomberg Intelligence. I also understand he
22:31
Speaker 1: has some management responsibilities over there, presumably. Uh, Sam, thanks
22:35
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. Let's talk about another
22:38
Speaker 1: one of the pharmaceutical companies today in the news in
22:42
Speaker 1: in the Ovo, one of the front runners to come
22:45
Speaker 1: up with a COVID nineteen vaccine. What's the news coming
22:47
Speaker 1: out of in Ovo? Yeah, high pool. Um. Yeah, so
22:52
Speaker 1: we've had a press released today which I think couldn't
22:55
Speaker 1: be more um limited on actual details and if they
23:02
Speaker 1: tried um. The comments that I've seen is an is
23:05
Speaker 1: an overall immune response the patient. I have no idea
23:11
Speaker 1: what that means and you have a PhD in this, Doune, Yeah, well, yeah,
23:16
Speaker 1: but I don't have a pH d in English literature.
23:19
Speaker 1: In this the English language, what I what are the
23:23
Speaker 1: sorts of things that we look for are this number
23:26
Speaker 1: of patients had this amount of antibody in their blood. Actually,
23:30
Speaker 1: I mean not to beat them up too much. I mean,
23:33
Speaker 1: the market is already doing that for us. But the
23:37
Speaker 1: reality is that list things are pretty useless unless you
23:41
Speaker 1: present data. Data is what matters at the end of
23:45
Speaker 1: the day. You remember going back to when Moderna put
23:48
Speaker 1: their press release up, we thought that was economical on details.
23:53
Speaker 1: So this, this is even this is one one level higher.
23:56
Speaker 1: And I don't know why why what you would read
23:59
Speaker 1: into that? Would you read therefore that they haven't got
24:01
Speaker 1: a vaccine that's really very effective? Time will will tell.
24:06
Speaker 1: We need to see the data. And even if they
24:08
Speaker 1: showed us superb antibody levels in every single patient that
24:11
Speaker 1: was vaccinated, somebody's going to prove eventually that that's protective.
24:17
Speaker 1: And that's where the FDA commentary coming afterwards. Right, So, Sam,
24:21
Speaker 1: just taking the bigger picture look at things, talk to
24:24
Speaker 1: us about how vaccines actually work. Dr Prouchy said something
24:27
Speaker 1: the other day that was quite interesting to the effect
24:29
Speaker 1: that if anti vactors don't get the vaccine, then it
24:32
Speaker 1: automatically isn't as powerful. Absolutely, so you do this so
24:38
Speaker 1: called her immunity h X level of number of a
24:42
Speaker 1: percentage of patients people supposedly se the number is a
24:47
Speaker 1: magic number. We need to be immune to the to
24:51
Speaker 1: the virus for her immunity to take place. And it's
24:55
Speaker 1: interesting about the subject that we didn't talk about it
24:57
Speaker 1: a little bit even during the day today with some
25:02
Speaker 1: clients as to what is what happened if of the
25:05
Speaker 1: population decide to make the vaccine also a political uh
25:11
Speaker 1: thing and not take it, whether antivacces or not, then
25:15
Speaker 1: that of course they are at risk, and the other
25:18
Speaker 1: sevent so long as there that sort of level will
25:20
Speaker 1: have some level of immunity. The problem is if you
25:23
Speaker 1: have a virus that runs around still in a pretty
25:27
Speaker 1: large population, you continue to give it the opportunity to
25:30
Speaker 1: to continue to effect, of course, and also to mutate,
25:34
Speaker 1: which is of course what we don't want. Yeah. Interesting, Sam, so,
25:40
Speaker 1: but there's I guess the Food and DUG administration today,
25:43
Speaker 1: I guess it's going to outline some conditions for proving
25:46
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccine. What are you expecting to hear from
25:49
Speaker 1: the f D A. Yeah, I would love to see
25:52
Speaker 1: the detail of that. Some of the headline things that
25:54
Speaker 1: I've seen are kind of make you go back and
25:57
Speaker 1: think about that the different ways you could interpreted. Um.
26:01
Speaker 1: The reality is that it will be a guidance document.
26:04
Speaker 1: A lot of it will come back down to people
26:07
Speaker 1: are interacting with the FDA with the data that they've got.
26:10
Speaker 1: But I would assume from what I've seen and what
26:13
Speaker 1: I've heard that it would not be enough just to
26:15
Speaker 1: show here's my vaccine and nine patients had an immune response,
26:21
Speaker 1: which is kind of like what the press is, which
26:23
Speaker 1: just so we need to have parameters, so so sort
26:26
Speaker 1: of bio markets. We need to have parameters as to
26:28
Speaker 1: what is a protictive level of an immune response. And
26:32
Speaker 1: maybe the if you will say, you need to prove
26:33
Speaker 1: to us that if you gave this in an environment
26:37
Speaker 1: where the virus is running wild, you reduce the percentage
26:40
Speaker 1: of patients who actually contract the disease or don't get
26:44
Speaker 1: severe disease, or don't get hospitalized something like that. Do
26:48
Speaker 1: we know yet if having had the disease makes you
26:52
Speaker 1: automatically immune. UM. You know the no, I don't think
26:57
Speaker 1: you can you can know for certain, but there is
27:00
Speaker 1: a lot of data that keeps suggesting. Remember we've already
27:03
Speaker 1: had some of these coronaviruses around like nerves and like stars,
27:07
Speaker 1: the original version, and that those patients, those individuals who
27:12
Speaker 1: were infected it did appear to have longer term immunity.
27:15
Speaker 1: So one the general hope is that that's the case
27:18
Speaker 1: here too. All right, Sam, So again we were chatting
27:22
Speaker 1: with you yesterday and we were talking about the report
27:24
Speaker 1: your research note that came out with that timetable. UM.
27:28
Speaker 1: So is the sense here that there will be a vaccine?
27:33
Speaker 1: Is is there a material risk that they just don't
27:35
Speaker 1: find one? Well, look at getting back to that question
27:39
Speaker 1: of what is a vaccine defined? And so let's little
27:43
Speaker 1: China has already UM got one company with two vaccines
27:49
Speaker 1: that are reported in a press release UM evidence of activity.
27:55
Speaker 1: They just had one another one in the past day
27:57
Speaker 1: or two sign of farm. One decent of patients had
28:01
Speaker 1: neutralizing antibodies. Is that enough? We don't know. But if
28:05
Speaker 1: they did, and then of course can Fino, which uses
28:08
Speaker 1: a technology not too different to that of Johnson and
28:12
Speaker 1: Johnson and as a kind for university, they have just
28:17
Speaker 1: been uh used in the ministry. So things are moving
28:20
Speaker 1: forward and there must be data in there that's convincing
28:23
Speaker 1: it the the governments that it's worthwhile vaccinating people. Some
28:28
Speaker 1: Thank you for all your research and for keeping us
28:30
Speaker 1: up to date, and we will be checking in with
28:32
Speaker 1: you regularly on this because it's what everyone is waiting for.
28:35
Speaker 1: Sam Fazli is senior Pharmaceutical analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and
28:38
Speaker 1: we thank them. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.
28:43
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
28:46
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm
28:50
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonny Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm
28:52
Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can
28:55
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. Well