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CBB BEST BETS | 180+ Games in 24 Hours?! · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well, we have this massive marathon of college basketball to
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: kick off the college basketball slate. It's too much to
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: even really handicap well. I mean, it's just overwhelming. I've
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: tried to at least take a look at every single
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Division I game that is being played. There are a
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: bunch of non-Division I games that I'm just ignoring. I'm
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: going to have two plays on the card tomorrow. It's,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: you know, out of Hundreds of games, or well over
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: 100 games. It's not many, but I'm trying to tread
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: really lightly here. It's what I usually do. I'm going
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: to try to kind of go rapid fire and hit
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: some of the games that I think are more interesting.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: There are, I think, like three actual big games that
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: are about to take place. There are a few at
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: ridiculous times. It's an all-nighter, man. It's insane. And it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: 24 straight hours of college basketball. And yeah, I'll try
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to do it. I'll try to do it rapid fire.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: So hopefully the shows don't really take that long. If
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you want me to talk about any of the games
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: that I'm not prepared to talk about, I can try.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: You know, whatever. This is going to be crazy. I
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: did something like this last year. I think I really
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: just hit the games pretty quickly. Don't want this show
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: to take too long. Hopefully it doesn't. But as you know,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: as a situational guy, the situations don't really come up
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: until the season is underway and you get to see
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: what do these teams do last, whatever. But hopefully I
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: have a couple of situations that make enough sense here.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I think the first game for a lot of handicappers
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: is really just going based on numbers pretty much alone,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: but you're also kind of guessing how good these teams are.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: I'll go into a few examples. Things that you should
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: know about these early season games as well. And, yeah,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: let's do it, man. Let's get into it after the intro.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Let's go.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: to somebody for sure Put the glass.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Down, baby Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not.
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: you out That fella fights hard But he don't get
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: This will be the college basketball opening day marathon edition.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Hopefully the show doesn't turn into a marathon. We do
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: have one game already underway. under our belts, I guess,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: if you want to phrase it that way. I also
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: was completely out of it this morning, so I fucked up.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Villanova is also a Catholic university. I'm like, wait a minute.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Didn't the Pope go to Villanova? I think he did,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. So yeah, that was a Catholic
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: versus Catholic battle, actually. I think Villanova is actually Augustinian
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: or something. I was way out of it this morning.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Forgive me. But also kind of odd that the The
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Pope's school, I'm pretty sure, was involved in the game
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: in Rome, and we were correct with the lean on
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: the show this morning. Notre Dame with the comeback and
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: then outright win. So that Catholic school was the school
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to get the win there and the upset there, beating Villanova.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I talked about the midnight game that's about to start soon,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: which I can briefly hit that if you want really quickly.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I'll get it up here, actually. Hold on. It is
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: High Point and Liberty. The money is now coming in
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: on Liberty, so the market has changed from what it
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: was this morning, and I agree with that. High Point,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: 56% of the tickets now, 59% of the cash on Liberty,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: and the line got driven all the way up to 9.5%
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: now on High Point, and my thoughts on that were
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: just that everybody remembers High Point, and they love this
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: high-scoring offense that High Point has had the last couple years.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Everybody remembers them pulling off the upset, the only upset
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: of the tournament. You know, everybody loves upsets, and when
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the tournaments don't have that many upsets anymore, Oh, yeah,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: this high-point team, they got the only big upset of
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the entire tournament, beating Wisconsin in a crazy game. So
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: the public will be on their side here. They'll ignore Liberty.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Liberty is a competitive team, though. You might be able
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: to make the argument Liberty's the better defensive team here.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know what Ken Baum's got to say about that.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I don't want to really go into the details too
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: much for this quick rundown of all these games here. But, yeah,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points with Liberty in
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that one. Ryan, what's up, man? Carolina Hurricanes, you mean?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: They won in some sort of massive blowout today. Yeah,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're one of the best teams in the NHL.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I don't expect them to go back to back, but
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: you never really know. My pick was the Florida Panthers
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: to get back to it again, at least as far
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: as where I think the value was to start the season.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Or you mean Miami Hurricanes. My mistake. You mean the
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: University of Miami. That's right. This is a college show. Miami.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: They're on the upswing. You're right. They're in one of
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: the huge... How could I forget? They're playing Florida. Yes,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about that game. All right. We
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: do have games that are... There's a game at 3 a.m. Eastern. Why? Why?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: And the game's in the Eastern time zone. Hey, guys,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: let's play at 3 a.m. I got nothing on this game.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Northern Illinois and Grambling. If you're a total degenerate and
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: you want to actually have money on this and or
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: watch this game, have at it. You know, it's going
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: to be ugly. It's got a low total. I don't
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: even know what to say about this game, but it's
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: not one that I have any interest in. And then
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: we kind of swing into the morning with Merrimack and
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: App State. I'm not going to go through every one
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: of these games, but Merrimack, they're local boys here. They're
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: actually favored there. And by the way, all three of
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: these games that go through the– the early morning are
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: in Rock Hill, South Carolina. So, uh, which is also
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: where the midnight game is. The, um, high point game
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: is also there. So these are, these are neutral site games.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: So one thing you got to take into account is
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: you got to, you know, be aware of where these
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: games are being played. Cause some of them are being
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: played at, some of them are played on the home
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: teams campus. A lot of them are not, a lot
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of these are like early season tournaments that are in
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: a neutral site. A lot of these are like, you know,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: semi-home games for some particular teams. So you got to
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: be aware of where the game is being played. And
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: one thing that I will say is these opening games,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I tend to preach like leaning towards unders in these games,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: especially like first half unders. I'm not a totals guy though,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: by any means. But I think when these teams are
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: coming in kind of cold and they haven't really played
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: yet and whatever, And especially if they're playing in some bigger,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: like if they're playing in a bigger arena, like might
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: be the case for these like Las Vegas games or
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: whatever that are on the slate here. The sight lines
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: are different. These guys are used to playing in small arenas.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: That can affect the shooting a bit. Plus, I think
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: the offenses can be a bit out of rhythm to
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: start the season because they just don't have any game
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: under their belt yet. They've been off for a long time.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I think offenses tend to start slow. Defenses tend to
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: have the advantage earlier in the season and early in
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: these games specifically. First half unders and Unders in general
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: in these games tend to make sense here. You're never
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: going to have me on an over in any of
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: these games, but again, I don't do totals, so, you know.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Except in baseball. Okay, and then the bigger game, I guess,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: out of the morning games, the one that I guess
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: people are kind of talking about, And it is competitively
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: lined as Winthrop and Queens. And by the way, Merrimack
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: is favored against App State, so they're expected to be
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the somewhat better team there. Merrimack now in the... Is
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the MAAC still alive, or did that conference go away?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. That's where they were last year.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: They had moved up. They're in the... Well, yeah, it's
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: called the Metro now, but I think it's the same thing.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It's the MAAC. I think maybe they changed their name
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: to the... It was the Metro... Atlantic Athletic Conference, I
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: think is what it was. So maybe they're just called
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the Metro Conference. They're all metrosexual, man. I have no idea.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Merrimack is a team that's kind of on
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: the rise. They were one of the better teams in
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: that conference last year. But Winthrop and Queens is kind
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: of interesting. I thought Queens was going away. I thought
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: they were such a small school. They're in North Carolina.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I thought they were... And so is App State, by
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the way. So App State does kind of have a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: location edge over Merrimack, who are a Massachusetts school. Winthrop
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: and Queens here, both of these are schools in the Carolinas.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Winthrop is a South Carolina school, so they're actually going
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: to have the location advantage here over Queens, who are
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. But I thought Queens was merging with some
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: other school, but I guess maybe that's not the case.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Their coach was following me on Twitter.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: for a while hopefully he still is i don't know
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: he's he wears ugly sweaters he seems like a fun
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: dude so uh hopefully he didn't unfollow me because of
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: my insane political shit posting or whatever but this game
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: is interesting it's really interesting that queens is actually favored
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: in this game I think if people kind of remember
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: what happened last year, Winthrop almost was able to beat
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: High Point to win their conference, the Big South, and
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Queens did actually win. So I guess people will remember that.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: The Queens actually won their conference last year, and they
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: got into the NCAA tournament. So I actually don't know
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: which way the public is really going to have a
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: tendency to lean here. Queens, though, they're like all offense
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: and no defense, whereas I think Winthrop is a bit
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: more of a balanced team if they're anything like they
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: were last year. um the money's coming in on queens
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: in this game though they're one one and a half
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: point favorites 67 of the tickets on winthrop 50 50
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: on the cash although i i don't know i have
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: a tendency to slightly disagree with that like i i
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: don't i don't like the lack of defense on the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: queen's side and it depends on like how similar these
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: teams are to last year and i don't really do
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: much with like the personnel, like I look at scheduling spots,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, in the market, that's pretty
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: much what I do here, so I'm not that familiar
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: with the personnel, way too much to keep track of here,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: but yeah, the market read is saying Queens, I don't know,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: my reaction in that game is that I kind of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: disagree with that one though, anyway, yeah, let's try to
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: get through some of these other games, we have some
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: games that are being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: although I'm not going to hit like many of these
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: games really, but just Be aware of the location. I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: would say if it's closer to one of the school's
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: campuses than the other by a significant margin, it probably
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: gives that school an advantage. It seems kind of obvious,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: and it might be factored into the line a little bit.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: These games at Sioux Falls, none of these games really
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: interested me, really. One game that I did take note
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: of when I was running through this, we have... George
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Mason hosting UMBC here. George Mason was a really good
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: team in their conference, at least, last year in the A-10.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: They were one of the competitive teams in that conference,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: which St. Louis won that conference, and I'll talk about St.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Louis on the show as well. George Mason, I think,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: is a little bit under the radar here right now.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: In UMBC, everybody just kind of remembers their name because
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: they had that upset as the first 16 seed, I think,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: to pull off an upset in tournament history over Virginia. Obviously,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: we're Way removed from that now, like over a decade
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: removed probably from that now. But UMBC made the tournament
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: again last year, made the play-ins at least in the
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: tournament last year. And I said that I lean towards
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: fading them in that play-in game. And I was correct.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: They lost to Howard, I believe. But they almost won
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the game. Howard almost threw the game away. But still,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think the public's going to look at this and
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: want UMBC because they're kind of the name that people recognize,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and they're getting a bunch of points. But this is
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: at George Mason at their home campus, and the Osweggers
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: are telling you George Mason is the way better team here.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: They're laying like 17, 17 and a half. And it's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: not football, so you don't have to worry about a
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: key number there. I would lay the points in this
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: one probably with George Mason. We got 67% of the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: tickets and 85% of the cash on UMBC here. So
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: UMBC does look like they're getting some of the money here.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And the only argument I could really see for UMBC
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: is that it's a low total in the 140s. So
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: taking the points makes a little bit more sense for
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: that reason. But I don't know. My instinct in that
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: game was telling me to lean towards George Mason there
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: and that UMBC might be a bit of a public dog.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: By the way, a lot of these games are on.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to hit every single one of these
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: TV games, but a lot of these games are on YouTube,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: and it's the Field of 68. They do a good job.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: They unfollowed me on Twitter, though, probably because of my shitposting,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: and I don't post entirely sports content. They do good work, though,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: and a lot of these games are on their YouTube channel.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I believe it's all free, the ones that are on
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: YouTube on their channel. Although, you're going to have to
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: deal with ads and whatever unless you have YouTube Premium, because...
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: That's how they do it at YouTube. But yeah, I'm
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: not going to hit every single TV game here, but
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: I will talk about some of the... Most of the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: bigger games are the ones that are on TV anyway.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I do recommend having ESPN Plus
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: during the... I have it through Disney Plus. Unfortunately, not
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: a fan of Disney and whatever the hell they're doing,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: but I have it to have ESPN Plus because you
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: get so many college basketball games that just makes it
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: worth it. You know what I mean? For college basketball season...
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: you have so many games available on there it's crazy
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: although I know now you know people have alternate ways
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of doing things which you know I'm not going to
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: say anything about that really whether I do or do
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: not do that as well but you know keeping things
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: on the up and up here Anyway, as we're already
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: getting into kind of the evening games here, so I'm
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: trying to fly here, but there are a lot of
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: evening games anyway. UAB and McNeese is a YouTube game
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: on the field of 68, whatever. They're going to have
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: to change their name to the field of 78 now
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: or whatever because of the stupid March Madness expansion. I
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: hate it. It's going to be awful. Charlie Baker can
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: suck a big one, which I already said because he
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: was the lockdown governor here in Massachusetts. I don't want
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: to get this channel nuked, but lockdown Charlie. He's the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: head of the NCAA or whatever, and he's the one
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: that pushed the expansion here. It's going to be bullshit,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: complete bullshit. It's going to ruin the best sporting event
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of the year. I fucking hate it. I love March Madness,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and I hate this. This expansion, I was fine at
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: least with the 68, but this is horrible. Anyway, UAB
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: and McNeese, I think McNeese, because they have all that
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: name recognition behind them, and they got, what's the dude's name,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Amir Khan or whatever. I think he went back after,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: so Will Wade was their coach for a little while,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: and he's the one that built up their program. He
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: left and went to NC State, and now I think
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: he's gone from NC State. I forget where he even
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: is now with all these coaching changes. the coaching carousel,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: but I think Amir Khan, the, the hype man with
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the boom box, he went back to McNeese. I'm pretty sure.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: And their program has been really built up. They're a
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: good program right now. Made the tournament two years in
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: a row, pulled off an upset in the tournament two
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: years ago, but I think that's going to overvalue them here.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: It gets a UAB team that is fairly competitive and
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: they're under the radar here. I think so. I like UAB, uh,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: to cover in this one as the underdog here. Um,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: The money does not seem to agree with that either. McNeese,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: 50% of the tickets and 91% of the cash on them.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: This game, I believe, is also going to be one
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: of the ones that's in South Carolina. Let me see.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: It is, yeah. So, I mean, McNeese is in Louisiana
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and UAB is in Alabama. So, I mean, it's not
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: a huge advantage location-wise for one team or the other.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: But I like UAB plus the points there. I just think,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: to me, it looks too easy to lay the points
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: three and a half with McNeese there. it's actually kind
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of teetering on like four now it looks like there
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: but yeah I am surprised that the public isn't all
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: over McNeese there maybe they will be by the time
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the game tips off because you would think they would
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: be based on the recency bias that I think is
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: there which leads us to your game here Ryan if
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: you're still there with me number 14 Miami and number
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: one Florida Florida is the preseason number one right now
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: here this is on ESPN2 this game is in Tampa
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Florida So it's a neutral location, if you will, between
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: these two Florida rivals. It's going to be a huge game.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, both teams are going to show up for this.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. I think Miami maybe puts
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit more motivation into this because they're the
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: little brother here. to Florida right now in the state of,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: this isn't football. So even in football, maybe they consider
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: themselves to be at this point, but historically they shouldn't.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: But in basketball, yes. Especially recently, Florida has been a juggernaut.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: And they are again. I don't really think I want
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: to fade Florida here in this one. They have a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: lot of returning production here, which I mentioned on my
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: preseason preview. They're the favorite to win the SEC right now.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: I believe they're not the favorite to win the championship, though.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Duke is right now. Duke, I think, has the best
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: odds to win the whole thing, which is counter to
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: what the rankings makers are telling you, but Florida is
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: going to be very good, I think, and they might
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: want to show up and have something to say about
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the way their season ended last year. If you remember,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: they got upset by Iowa in the round of 32,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I believe, in the tournament last year, and I didn't
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: have that in my bracket, but I did give out
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: a play on this show. We had a winning play
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: on Iowa plus the points in that one. So I
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: liked how the setup was for Iowa in that game.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: It didn't totally shock me that they won the game outright, actually,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: with Iowa being a real slow-down team. And Florida doesn't
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: want that. Florida wants to speed the game up. So
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: that hit. And then, of course, in my bracket, if
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: you followed me back then, I had Florida losing in
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the Elite Eights to Illinois. So I did get Illinois
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to the Final Four correct in my bracket. Had a
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: good bracket last year for sure with Michigan winning in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: three out of the Final Four correct. Anyway, I had
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Duke in the Final Four and in the championship, unfortunately.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I only missed that one in the Final Four. Anyway. Yes,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Florida-Miami here. This game's on ESPN2. Florida only a four
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. So, I mean, the public
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: is likely to be siding with Florida here. They are.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: 81% of the tickets and cash on them. They're down
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: from 5 to 4.5 here. I typically do like to
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: fade the public, and if you want to do that,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you'd be taking the points with Miami here. I just
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: don't think I could do it. Like I said, I
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: don't really want to fade Florida here, man. Miami had
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a good season last year I thought they were I
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: don't know what to think about this team I honestly
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: don't I think they have a second year coach now
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: there so they should have a little bit of progression
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: from what they did last year which was still a
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: good season I mean they were better than people thought
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: they would be they made the tournament last year they
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: won a tournament game if I remember correctly and then
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: lost to Purdue I want to say yeah I mean
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I think they are taking another step in the right
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: direction this year Usually like the, the, you usually take
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: that real next step, like in a coach's third year
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: when he's got a system totally in there and like
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: has all of his guys there and his recruiting is
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: like full throttle and whatever. Not a hard and fast
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: rule though. I don't know what I want to do
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: with this game, man. My instinct was actually telling me
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: to lean towards laying the points with Florida here, but
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: they are a really public side. But I don't know.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: I'm just not entirely sold on this Miami team yet
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: until I see more out of them. And maybe it's
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: my anti-ACC bias because I don't think they're a very
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: good– conference although maybe they'll be a little bit better
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: this year because it's not this year at least it
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: looks like it's not just going to be Duke and
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: then everybody else although the odds makers kind of still
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: have it that way but like Louisville Miami those teams
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: look like they're going to be more competitive and they
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: were fairly competitive last year though Clemson looks like they're
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: falling off at the same time but I don't know
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: man I think I prefer Florida on this one though
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: but Miami does have the little brother aspect to this
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: going on Public also all over Florida like I said
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: so if you want to fade the public which I
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: usually do recommend that would mean you're going to take
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Miami and yeah I mean it does almost look too
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: easy to play Florida right like oh yeah the number
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: one team laying points but I just think they're significantly
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: better than Miami right now so. And I think Florida,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: you know, again, because of the way their season ended
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: last year, falling way short of what their, their goal
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: was to win another championship and they got upset and
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that was the last time they played. So I see
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: them coming out with some motivation here. Oakland at number 16,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Michigan on Big Ten Network. Michigan, of course, coming off
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: winning the championship. But of course, there's a lot of
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: turnover here, right? Like their coach is gone. Dustin May,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: he's Dusty May, excuse me, not the pitcher, Dustin May,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: World Series, I think three-time World Series winner now, if
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, maybe four, Dustin May. That guy's got
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of World Series rings, man. And he just
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: won one with the Brewers. No, Dusty May, the Michigan coach,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: left after two years, and he's with the Dallas Mavericks now.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: They already seem to be playing way better. Absolutely insane.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Michigan will take a step back this year, although they're
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: kind of a program that's reloading. because they were a
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: real juggernaut last year, so they've reloaded a bit, which
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: is why they're getting all this preseason respect at number 16.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: This game is in Ann Arbor. This is at Michigan,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: but I would fade Michigan in this one for a
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: couple of reasons. One is we don't even know if
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: they deserve this ranking because there's a lot of turnover here.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: They lost two of their best players to the draft,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Lendeborg and Mara. Michigan might be riding... just the notoriety
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: from winning the championship last year. Although I did say
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: that I think maybe the odds makers are undervaluing them
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit based on like where Ken bomb has
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: them ranked right now, but maybe not. Cause Ken bomb
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: has them ranked. I think in the twenties. somewhere like
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: 28 or something like that so that's well below that
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: they're ranking right now 16 and because they're Michigan and
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: they won the championship you're not going to get any
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: value playing on the Michigan side so that's another thing
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I will say about these opening games like this the
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: value is going to be on a lot of the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: underdogs here like if you're if you get this like
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: you know let this team that just have has no
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: name recognition up against like one of the Power teams,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? You're not going to get
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: any value laying the points of the power team, right?
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: And I think it's more likely that they might take
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: that other team for granted a little bit, and I
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: think that might be what happens here. Oakland, by the way,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: they were a decent team in the Horizon League last year,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: pretty much the last year. I don't know. It's been
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: a while. They're usually one of the better teams on
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: the horizon, I'm pretty sure. And they're going to get
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: up for this because Oakland, even though I know their
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: name is Oakland, their name refers to Oakland, Michigan. So
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: they're in Michigan school, and they're in the Detroit area,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: and so is Michigan. Like, Ann Arbor's not that far
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: outside of Detroit, I believe. So Oakland is a little
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: brother here, and they get up for a game like this.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: This is one of their... Biggest games of the season.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: It's like their Super Bowl. Whereas for Michigan, this is
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: a program coming off the championship. And I know because
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: there are so many different faces there on Michigan now,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: it's not like it's going to be like a letdown
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: or anything like that because so many of those guys
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: are gone. But they still might be pretty cocky because, yeah,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: we're Michigan. We're the defending champs. And by the way,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Michigan is going to have to immediately defend their title
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: next against UConn, who's ranked fourth in the country. I
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: think UConn is overrated at number four. Um, I think
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: they're riding, you know, the fact that they're bringing some
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: of their guys back and Hurley, definitely a really good coach,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: but we'll talk about UConn when we get to that. Um,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I think it could be a look ahead
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: for Michigan here. I mean, that's a monster game up next, uh,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: against UConn in a few days. So I don't see
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Michigan putting in a massive effort here and they could
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: easily just win this game without covering, you know, it
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: could be one of those situations where they get in,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: get out, they have a big lead. They might just
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: take their foot off the gas, uh, put in some backups,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: you know, not get hurt, whatever. So, I like Oakland
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: getting the points in this one for all those different reasons.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Michigan is a super public side. 93% of the tickets
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on them, only 86% of the cash, so the market
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: agrees with me on this one. It's not a particularly
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: low total, but you're going to get about 27 points
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: with Oakland there. That's the way I would lean in
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: that one is Oakland plus the points. All right, let's
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: keep it going, man. We're keeping it going here. What
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: else do we have that's of interest at all? I mean,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I'll just hit this next game. It's involving Duke, the
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: number two team on ESPNU, but they're playing Army. I mean,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: this is a game I don't have a whole lot
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: on this. I don't really think Duke has any sort
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: of real look ahead or anything. Their biggest game is
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: their third game. That'll be their first big game, I
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: should say, against Michigan State coming up on the 10th.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: So not really a look-ahead spot for Duke yet. And
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: with the first game of the season, a lot of
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: times teams will show up still and try to win.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: But again, these massive favorites, they could take their opponent
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: for granted and, again, not want to show that much
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: early on. That's the other thing about these big opponents.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: They know they can easily sleepwalk through these games. You
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? And they might not want to show...
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: what they're going to be doing later in the season. Like,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: they're not going to put in all those wrinkles that
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: they might have later on. I talk about this in football, too, with, like,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: their offense or whatever, because why would they need to
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: show that? Duke is playing Army here, and this is
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: at Duke, Cameron Indoor. Yeah, I would lean towards taking
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: the points with Army in this one. Duke also pretty
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: notoriously a slow-tempo team, which is the case here. So,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: slow-tempo teams also... tend to not be as good laying
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: a ton of points, and obviously they're laying a ton
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: of points in this one. Duke is a 42.5-point favorite.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: It's down from 43.5. The total's in the low 150s,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: so it's not a low total, but it's not really
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: that high either. Duke has 77% of the tickets, 90%
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: of the money on them. I would still fade that, though.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, Duke is obviously going to be a public
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: side here. Although maybe the public will kind of shy
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: away because the spread is just so high. But, yeah,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Army in that one.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: There are many reasons why I think Duke just doesn't
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: have the incentive to really just annihilate this team by 50.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Although if they want to, they could probably name the score. But,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: you know, I just don't know that they have any
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: reason to. Number 13, St. John's is playing Monmouth. And
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: I'm going to feel like a broken record because, again,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards the dog here. St. John's
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: does have Iona next, and that might be a little
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: bit of a bigger game because they're both New York schools,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: although Monmouth might actually be geographically closer. I'm not sure
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: because they're in New Jersey. Iona is kind of interesting, though,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: because I believe Iona... So St. John's is Rick Pitino,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: and Iona... That's Rick Pitino's, one of his former schools,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: is it not? I believe so. I believe Rick Pitino
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: coached at Iona, I think, prior to going to St. John's.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I think he was there. Somebody can correct me if
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, unless I'm getting him confused with his son,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Richard Pitino. But I think that Iona game is a
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: little bit bigger for St. John's, although it's still going
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to be bigger for Iona because they're a little brother there.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: But Monmouth, I think, will consider themselves to be a
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: little brother here as well in the New York, New
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Jersey area. The St. John's team also under Patino, they're
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: kind of notoriously not great on offense, so you don't
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: really want to lay huge points with the St. John's team.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: They're much more of a better defensive team, even though
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: they kind of run like a Havoc style and they
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: play really fast, but they focus on defense and they
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: don't really score a lot of points. St. John's, 93%
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, 90% of the cash on them, so
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: they're very public. They're a 27.5-point favorite. Total in the
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: low 150, so it's not exactly low, but another one
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: of those middle totals that are kind of just in
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the middle there. I would take the points with Monmouth
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: in that one if I was really going to play it,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: but obviously, you know, I'm not really interested in playing
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: really any of these games. You'll get my two plays
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: when I get to them. Hopefully, I'm not skipping them
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: because I'm kind of trying to roll through them. We
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: got number six, Michigan State is playing Quinnipiac in Michigan
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: State in East Landing on the Big Ten, in East Lansing,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: excuse me, on the Big Ten Network. I Again, I mean,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: this is a game, again, I'd probably look towards the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: dog here. Michigan, they're not going to pay much attention
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: to Quinnipiac, although Quinnipiac, they're also one of those teams
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: in the Metro Conference, and they're one of the better
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: teams in that conference, so they might be competitive enough
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: to cover as a huge dog here. I'd like it
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: better if Michigan State had Duke up next, but like
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: I said, that's not for eight days, so Michigan State
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: does have Toledo between the two. I think I called
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: them Michigan by accident. Michigan State, Quinnipiac... I mean, they'll
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: at least get up for this game, although I know
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be that easy of a venue
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: to have to go into. I know it's the first
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: game of the season, but I'm not sure how full
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: these stadiums necessarily get. Is the crowd going to be
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that crazy? Yeah, we get to play the Quinnipiac Bobcats here.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. I think that's their name, right?
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: I forget. Yeah, it's right there.
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: It is.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Michigan State has 79% of the tickets, 66% of the
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: cash on them. They're a 29.5-point favorite, basically, here. It's
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: gone down a little bit from 30, and this is
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: a pretty low total, a little bit lower, at least,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: in the high 140s. So Michigan State, I think, is
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: another one of those teams that usually goes at a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: bit of a slower tempo here. Yeah, Ken Baum has
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: them currently at 247, but I think he's kind of
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: guessing on the team's tempo based on the coaching and whatever.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, if it's Tom Izzo still there,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, he likes to go a bit slower as well.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: So slower-paced teams, Ling... A ton of points like that,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: not what you really want to be looking at. So yeah,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I would again fade the public favorite in that one
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: and take the points with Quinnipiac. Memphis at number 18,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. This game, or actually it's not at Iowa State,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: my mistake. This one is one of the Sioux Falls
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: games here, but that does help. The location's better for
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, obviously, because it's in South Dakota, which is
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: closer to Iowa. Um, then Memphis, um, you know, Memphis
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: is going to have to make a little bit of
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: a travel up here. Although still, I believe near the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Mississippi river, if I'm not mistaken, but, uh, going up
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the river a little bit. Uh, but I actually do
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: like Memphis in this one, Iowa state, the ranked 18th
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: in the country. I think they're kind of riding what
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: we saw from them the last couple of years, but
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: they've lost some key pieces, especially a mom seal of itch.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I believe he just hit the transfer portal because I
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: think he's on Kentucky now. So this Iowa State team
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: will be a little bit different. I expect them to
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: take a little bit of a step back, even though
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: they're a good program, well-coached. But I think based on recency,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they're probably laying too many points here. I don't really
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: want to take Memphis as a play or anything because
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: the location doesn't really favor them or whatever. But if
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: you force me to give a lean on this one,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I would probably prefer taking the points with Memphis here.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: You know, again, this is all boring. I know we
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of huge favorites here. I think the
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: value just happens to be on the underdog, but let
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: me see. Iowa State's got 88% of the tickets, 89%
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. So they're really public. And
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: this line is not as high because Memphis is a
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: pretty competitive team. I mean, they're in not a great conference.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I think they're still in the American conference, but they're
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: one of the teams that's, always at the top of
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: that conference, except the last couple of years they've been
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: kind of down. Do they still have Penny Hardaway there
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: as their coach? I think they should fire him if
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: they haven't. Penny Hardaway as their coach, he's been bad,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. But Memphis, yeah, I would lean
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points with Memphis in this one. Looks
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit too easy maybe to lay the 14.5
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: or whatever with Iowa State. That one's a total, it's
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a mid-tier total there. That game's on Fox
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Sports 1, 7 p.m. Eastern. Jackson State is at Number 19,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. This one is at Texas Tech in Lubbock
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: on CBS Sports at 7 p.m. Eastern. Texas Tech, I
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: had heard some people saying that JT Taupin is not playing.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's true or not because I
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: think he is back for them, but let me see.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: What are we looking at here? He's on their roster,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: but hang on. Yeah, I mean, I don't see anything different.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: here so I don't know I heard one of the
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: college basketball guys I listened to by the way that
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: high point game is tipped off by the way people
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: are going to be watching that competing with me how
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: dare you I don't know if Toppin's going to be
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: playing or not but I think the handicap probably kind
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: of remains the same here Texas Tech I mean I
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: like what they've done with this program, and I actually
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: think they might be a little bit undervalued because of
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: how their season ended last year. They didn't have a
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: good end to the season because they had too many injuries,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: and Toppin, their best player, was injured, although that seems
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: like that might still be the case right now, even
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: though he's still on the team. So I don't know,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: but they might have something to prove after they bowed
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: out early last year. They made a nice run two
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: years ago in the tournament, not enough to get to
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the Final Four, which is what I had in my bracket,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: but they almost were able to do that against Florida
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: two years ago. But yeah, Texas Tech didn't look good
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: in the tournament last year. They were just too injured,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: so they fell out of it. I think they got crushed,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, by, was it Alabama? I think
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Alabama just kind of ran away with that game. I
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: think it was Alabama. Jackson State, what I will say
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: about them is, They battle test themselves, I will say that,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: so they're not going to be intimidated by this. This
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Jackson State team, I've mentioned it the last couple years,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: once they get into conference play, I think you might
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: want to find some spots potentially to play on them,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: although I don't think I've really found any the last
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: couple years. they play a gauntlet in the out of conference.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: They play, they always schedule all these really good teams
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: out of conference. Then you'll see them, they start conference
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: play and they're like own six, you know what I mean?
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Or own seven or whatever. And like, who would want
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: to want to play on a team like that? Except
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: the thing is they play all these like teams like
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Texas tech and whatever they play, all these ranked teams.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: And then, They have this horrible record, but it's because
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: they've played a bunch of teams that are really good.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Then when they get into conference play, they're battle-tested, and
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit undervalued because their record looks so bad.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: But they tend to be one of the somewhat better
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: teams in their awful conference that they're in, the SWAC.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: So they won't be intimidated by this. Will they be
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: able to cover a 34.5 as an underdog? Yeah, I mean,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I think they have the ability to do that. Texas
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Tech has dropped a little bit from 34.5 to 33.5,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it looks like here. Don't see the percentages. Some money
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: is coming on Jackson State. I'm like lukewarm on that because, again,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: I made arguments kind of for both sides there. I
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: think Texas Tech may have a little bit of motivation
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: coming into this season after the way their season ended
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: last year. May have something to prove, but Jackson State
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: not going to be intimidated by a game like this
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: because they do it every year. Texas Tech doesn't have
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a big game until Game 3 when they have to
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: play Illinois. I still think I... This game, I might
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: still prefer laying it with Texas Tech, though. I don't know, man.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, these SWAC teams tend to be a bit outmatched,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: but yeah, we will see. Number 24, Vandy is hosting
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Bellarmine here. Bellarmine... Are they a Tennessee team or a
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Kentucky team? I forget if they're in Tennessee or Kentucky.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: They're somewhere in that area, but they'll definitely get up
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: for this game against Vandy. I think Vandy might be
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit overrated because of what they did really
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the last two years, but especially last year, they made
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: a big splash in the SEC last year, made the tournament.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: But then they didn't look that good against Nebraska, and
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: they got bounced from the tournament, if I remember correctly. Still,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I think they might be a little bit overhyped here.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, the public's not going to want Bellarmine in
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: this game, but I think I would lean that way here.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I think Vandy may not be deserving of this ranking.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I think we just don't really know at this point.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: I thought maybe there were a little bit of a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: flash in the pan too, so I don't know. We'll see.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Vandy's laying 32.5 in this one. Again, we don't see
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the percentages on this, but the numbers a little bit
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: all over the place there But I think I would
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points in that one
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Vandy does have a pretty big game up next right away.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: They got to play Wake Forest So they're playing a
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: power conference team right away after this so they might
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: not really have a full focus Fully focused effort. Let's
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: say I'm Bellarmine there. So yeah, I'd prefer Bellarmine plus
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: the points in that one What else we got? Kind
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: of flying through some of these, man. Because I'm a
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Boston guy, I mean, we do a Boston battle here.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: The basketball beanpot, no, not really, but Northeastern and Boston University. BU,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: I think, is kind of the better team here. Northeastern
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: had a real bad season last year in the Colonial
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: or whatever it's called. I still call it the Colonial.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's called the Coastal now because you're not
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: allowed to say Colonial. Oh, you can't be a Colonialist anymore.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: What are you talking about? That's what we had. That's how.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Those are the origins of the United States. We had
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the colonies, the colonists. We're the colonials. What are we
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: talking about here? Whatever, man. But yeah, Northeastern and BU here.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: This game is at BU's arena, but it's in Boston.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Both teams are going to have a crowd for this one.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: BU has been the better team. Over the last couple
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: of years, BU had a chance to make the tournament
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: last year. I believe they did actually make it the
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: year before that, I think, if I'm not mistaken. So
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: BU's been one of the better teams in the Patriot League,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: although the Patriot League is ass. And I actually think
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: it's worse than Northeastern's conference, which is the colonial. I'm
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: going to keep calling it that. I'm probably going to
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: lean Northeastern here, actually. I think BU gets a little
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: bit more of the name because recognition there but they're
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: only a one one and a half point favor here
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: I don't see where the money is on this would
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: be interesting to know but Northeastern really had an ugly
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: season last year so I think nobody's really gonna want
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: them but they could definitely compete here and again I
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: think Northeastern is going to have little brother syndrome here
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean because BU they're not BC
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: or anything but they're still BU they're still the University
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: of Boston essentially so Northeastern considers themselves to be a
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: little brother to them so yeah I'd lean towards Northeastern
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: in that one all right what else we got going
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: on Vermont and Iona, I'll just hit briefly. This game
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: is at Iona, but Iona... I'm not going to say
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: they're necessarily going to... Well, actually, I thought they were
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: playing St. John's next, but they're not, so my mistake.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: They're playing NJIT next, so never mind. They're playing two...
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: What league? American East, I think, is where Vermont and
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: NJIT are. Yeah, so I thought Iona had St. John's next.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a big look ahead
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: to St.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: John's.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: So maybe... Look to fade Iona in their next game
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: against NJIT because maybe they'll step it up a little
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: bit for Vermont because Vermont's always around the top of
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the American East, even though I think they didn't. Of course,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: they didn't win it last year. UMBC won it last year.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: But Vermont's usually near the top of that conference. And
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: then St. John's is going to be a huge game
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: for Iona, in-state rival, and I believe facing their former
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: coach and whatever, although he's years removed from that now,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I know. But, yeah, I don't know. I was going
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: to say I probably prefer Vermont there, but maybe not with...
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Because I thought Iona was going to have St. John's next,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: but they don't. Iona's a one-and-a-half-point favorite in that one.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe I still kind of lean to Vermont there, because
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I think Vermont... The Osweggers are kind of telling you
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: they're the slightly better team, because I think college basketball,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: even these weak home court advantages, are still probably around, like, two,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: something like that. And Vermont probably... We'll have some motivation
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: here because I think that was the first time in
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: quite a while that they didn't win their conference. So
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to have something to say about
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: that maybe in this first game here. What else we
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: got here? You know, as far as games that I
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: wanted to mention at all, a lot of pretty uninteresting
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: games here, man, but it makes my job a little
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: bit easier kind of flying through these things. Youngstown State
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: and St. Bonaventure caught my eye very briefly because Youngstown
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: State They're playing on the road here, but they got
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: a huge game on deck, which is an in-state little brother,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: big brother situation against Ohio State because Youngstown is in Ohio.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: That's a massive game on deck for them against Ohio State.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm not going to say they're going to totally
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: overlook their first game of the season, but that Ohio
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: State game is looming there. So I would prefer to
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: be on the Bonneys in this one. Bonaventure, you know,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: it'll be their home opener at least. Youngstown has been
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: a decent team in the horizon recently, although they seem
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: to never get over the hump there. But Youngstown looks
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: like they're a very dreaded public underdog here. 93% of
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on them, 92% of the cash. That
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: is not what you want. So that should be a
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: red flag. Again, like I say, a major red flag
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: when you see a big underdog and the public wants
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: that underdog. And they'd be taking 10.5 with Youngstown there.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: So I would fade that sentiment. And again, Youngstown with
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: that look ahead to Ohio State potentially there. I would
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: lay the points with St. Bonaventure in this one. I
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: would be on the Bonneys minus the 10 or 10.5
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: in that one. Total in the lowish 150s. I mean,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: at least it's not like a super low total there
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: if you want to lay double digits there. That is
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: what I would do in that game. Next up, I'm
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: going to give you one of my plays. You're going
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: to think I'm insane for this next one. What the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: hell am I thinking? What am I even seeing in
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: this game? Well, I'll give it to you right now.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I want to do this
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: stupid intro video anymore to my best bet segment because
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: I think it's just lame and stupid. And when I
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: go to do the clips and whatever, it's kind of
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: hard to get rid of it. So, I don't know.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Let's just do it, man. First best bet out of
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: the two here. We're going to lay two and a
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: half with Ball State. Yeah, I'm insane. I know I'm insane.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: This is at Georgia Southern here. This is in Georgia Southern.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: It's at their home arena. And you might think, well,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: why is... Like, even I was like, this was one
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: of those lines that caught my eye. Because I'm like,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: why the hell is Ball State favored here? Like, who
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: even talks about Ball State? They're a MAAC team, and
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: they're not really one of the better MAAC teams. Well, apparently...
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: they're a program that's a little bit on the rise
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: here because the odds are telling you they're the better team.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: And Ken bomb actually confirms that a Ken bomb has
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: ball state at the one number 180 team in his
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: rankings right now. And he has some very balanced, like
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: basically right around that both offensive defense and a slow
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: paced team. And even though they're laying a couple of
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: points here, I usually like taking points with a slow
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: paced team, but, um, Laying a couple of points at
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: the slow pace team. I think they might be able
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: to muddy this thing up because Georgia Southern wants to
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: go fast. I don't know if I can even find
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: them here. Yeah, there was Georgia Southern. I just saw them.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Ken Baum's got Georgia Southern more than 100 ranking spots
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: lower than Ball State here at 289. And he has them.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Worst on both sides of the ball, but really bad
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: on defense. In the bottom, like, 60, in the bottom 40, basically,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: defense ranked 328 out of 365, whatever teams we have here.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: And 42 in tempo. So he's got Georgia Southern as
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: a fast-paced team that doesn't play defense. You know I
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: want to fade teams like that. So I like all
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: that about this. So I'm going to be on the
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: more balanced team. It's actually the better team on both
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: sides of the ball here. The ball. Ball State. Plus,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: nobody's going to... be eyeing this or want to play
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Ball State, because who's heard anything about Ball State ever
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: in basketball? No, I don't know when the last time
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I even mentioned their basketball team would have been. Georgia Southern, though,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: people might remember what they did at the end of
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: the season last year. They played in that Sunbelt tournament,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: and they kept upsetting team after team. They were like,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: what were they? I want to say they were maybe
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: like the 11th seed or something in that tournament, and
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: that tournament has some chaos there, because Teams have multiple
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: buys in that tournament. It's one of those long tournament
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: structures where the lower teams play right away, and then
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: the next lower teams play, and then so on. So
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: the top teams in the conference don't even play for
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: like four days. But Georgia Southern just ran out of steam,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: and I believe I gave out a play fading them
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: at some point in that, maybe twice, I think. I
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: think we lost one and won one in that one.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: But Georgia Southern made this epic run. They pulled off
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: like four or five upsets in a row in the
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt Tournament. To get to the championship where they
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: finally fell completely flat and got blasted by Troy in
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the final. I don't remember if I actually gave out
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: a play on that or not, but it was definitely
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: at least a strong lean. So after Georgia Southern did that,
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: maybe that's what people are going to remember. I remember
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: it at least because I follow basketball. And they'll, I think,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: draw the wrong conclusions. Like, oh, Georgia Southern, they were...
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the top teams in the Sun
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Belt because they made this epic run in the Sun
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: Belt tournament. Well, no. They had to play early in
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: the Sun Belt tournament for a reason because they were
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt. They
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: made that fluke run where I think they kept catching
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: teams that were... off of having too many days off.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: And then finally, Georgia Southern had nothing left in the
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: tank and got destroyed by Troy. Destroyed by Troy. Yeah,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: so the Osmakers and Ken Baum all telling you Ball
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: State's the better team. Now, Ken Baum, he is making
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: it look like he has Ball State as the way
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: better team. But, I mean, that is kind of true
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: because there are lane points on the road here. I
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: recommend that you pay for Ken Bum. You should do
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: it so you can get all of his numbers. It's
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: not expensive. It's like still, I think it's at most
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: like $ 30 a year probably. But he does, I believe
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: he has Ball State winning this game by more than
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: what this number is by a little bit, by three
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: or four points. So, yeah, I'm going to do this one.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I didn't expect this when I started looking at this.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Ball State's gone up a little bit from a two
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: to two and a half number. Uh, totals in the
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: high one fifties. I don't really care that much about that.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Although ball state probably is going to be more correlated
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: to an under type of game here because they're the
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: slower pace of these two teams. But I like that.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, usually those teams are sounder fundamentally, and usually
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: they can. frustrate teams that want to go fast. And
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: it's easier for a team to slow the game down
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: than to speed it up. Usually the team at home
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: usually controls the pace, but the better team also is
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the team that usually controls the pace. And I think
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: that could be the case here, Ball State, and plus
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: it being easier to slow it down. I think they
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: might be able to ugly this up and play it
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: at their pace. And this Ball State team apparently... Making
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: moves in the right direction, at least. And maybe they'll
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: be kind of like a mid-tier MAAC team this year
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: instead of a doormat. I don't know. A doormac, even.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But yes, let's do it. Let's lay
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: it with Ball State. Yeah, I know you didn't expect
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: that to happen, but I do weird things here, man.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: That one is a little bit of a numbers play,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: but it is also kind of a situational read there.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Then we got to talk about it, unfortunately, Miami, Ohio.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody's darling from last year, Miami, Ohio, because they were
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: undefeated up until they lost to UMass in the MAAC
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: tournament last year. Then Miami, Ohio still made the play-ins.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: They won a play-in game against an injured SMU team,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: and then Miami, Ohio got just destroyed by Tennessee when
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: they finally had to face a team that was actually
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: significantly better than they were. in the actual tournament, in
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the round of 64. But everybody's going to remember that.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: The public will still be all over Miami, Ohio. Oh
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: my God, it's Miami, Ohio again. The team that had
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: an undefeated regular season last year against James Madison. And
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: this is not football. So James Madison basketball, maybe not
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: really as good as their football program. However... They're good
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: enough to beat Miami, Ohio, I think. And this game
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: is at James Madison, I'm pretty sure. The oddsmakers are
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: telling you Miami, Ohio is the better team, but very slightly.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: James Madison's only a one, one and a half point
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: favorite here. You know the podcast. is going to see
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: that oh it's just a pick the winner here miami
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: ohio yeah that's who they're going to be on the
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: public will definitely be on miami ohio so i would
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: fade that um You know how much I hated Miami,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Ohio last year. They were just so overrated all year.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: They weren't even the best team in the MAAC. They
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: were the second best team behind Akron. That wound up
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: being the case. Akron wound up winning the MAAC tournament. Miami,
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Ohio still wound up getting in for us as the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: last at-large team to get in or whatever. which I
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: actually didn't even think they should because they played such
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: a weak-ass schedule. But they're starting off with a competitive
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: matchup here. I like James Madison in this one. So
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: after Miami, Ohio lost zero games in the regular season
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: last year, I like them to lose in the first
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: game of the season this year. Wouldn't that be something?
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: It's not going to be a play for me, but
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: I like James Madison here. Um, this number is kind
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: of all over the place. It looks like you can
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: get a pick them. You can get a one and
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: a half kind of on both sides here, but yeah,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: JMU would be the way I would look there. And
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: we don't see any percentages on that. All right. Keeping
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: it going. Uh, what else do we got here? Um,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: You know, UMass and Troy are a little bit interesting
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: because UMass was the team that upset Miami, Ohio and
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: ended their undefeated status. Although, of course, UMass then lost
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: right after that, obviously, because they're not that good. Troy,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: as I said, won the Sun Belt and got into
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: the tournament and then did not put up a good
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: showing against Nebraska. So what are we going to do
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: with this game? This game is at Troy. It could
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: be a weird spot for UMass to have to go into.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: Troy is up to a three and a half point
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: favor from about a three point favor. They are getting
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: the money, 60% of the tickets and 83% of the
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't have much of a reason
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: to disagree with Troy there. I'll probably slightly agree with that.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe UMass gets a little bit overhyped because, oh, it's
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: the team that beat Miami, Ohio. Whereas the last time
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: we saw, and people remember that. And even though they
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: lost the game after that, people, I think, remember Troy
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit more getting kind of humiliated in the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: tournament against Nebraska. And Troy was a little bit of
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: a trendy underdog pick. And even I thought they were,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: in better shape to cover that spread because I didn't
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: love Nebraska really with all that pressure on them to
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: finally win that first tournament game, but Troy was awful
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: in that game, so maybe Troy out for a little
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: redemption there. I guess I'd probably lean that way, laying
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: the points with Troy in that one. All right. By
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the way, I'm not going to get into this game
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: in detail, but New Haven... They were an unnamed team
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: last year. I think it was their first year in
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Division I basketball, and they had no team name. I'm like,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: what is up with that? They do have one now, though.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: They are the New Haven Chargers, so congratulations, New Haven.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: They're not just the New Haven blanks. The New Haven
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: basketball team. They just went by New Haven. In a way,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: that's cooler, though. Like, yeah, we're New Haven. All right. Although...
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I got my issues with new Haven, man. I mean,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: you're going to get mad at me, but dude, new
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Haven it's, it is like, it is the hipster pizza capital.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Like these people are, they're
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: the worst pizza snobs you'll ever encounter. We're better than
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: New York, man. We got new Haven. I'm like, no,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: have you had a new Haven pizza, man? It's so
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: thin that if you put one topping on it, the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: thing it's not structurally sound. Like I think the flavor, yeah,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: it tastes wise. It's fine. Um, You know, Frank Pepe's,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I still go with the classic there. I think they're
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: probably still the best there out of the couple that
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I've had. But yeah, I'm not, I am, dude, I'm
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: from Boston and I'm telling you that I think New York,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: a New York slice is the best pizza that you
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: can get, okay? Maybe I'm just too old school. Maybe
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: it's because I'm Italian, but I'm not supposed to like
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: New York because I'm from Boston, but you know. That
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: is what it is. I'm from the South Shore of Massachusetts,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: so I love the South Shore bar pies, which not
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of people know about, but if you're up here,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: you should check those out because those are excellent pizzas.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: They are like individual-sized pan pizzas where the cheese goes
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: all the way to the edge of the pan and
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: asks for laced edges, and the cheese crisps up right
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: on the edge there. It's awesome. It sounds weird, but
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: they use cheddar cheese on that pizza. Sounds really ridiculous,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: but Trust me. Yeah, try it. It does get a
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: little oily, but it's supposed to be that way. Yeah,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: trust me with that shit. New Haven, you know, plays,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: you know, I would say like fourth fiddle. I actually,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: I put Detroit ahead of New Haven for pizza. Get
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: mad at me all you want, man. Detroit's like a
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: thicker pizza, but they do the pan thing and the.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Oil drip pans, you know, because it's Detroit, the Motor City. That,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: you get the laced edges, the crisp right on the
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: edge there. I love that. I love a Detroit pizza, man.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: At least if it's done right. We have like a
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: couple of places up here that do it right. So
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: even though I'm not in Detroit, I know I'm sacrilege.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, let's do it. And, you know, just to
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: piss people off even more, Chicago deep dish isn't even
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: a pizza, all right? I'm not saying it necessarily tastes bad,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: but what the fuck? It's a fucking calzone, dude. Like,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: let's be real about it. Sorry, not a calzone. Sorry,
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: it is a... Dude, I have stroke branding, and what's
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: the word I'm looking for? Casserole. Sorry, a casserole. I'm like,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, what the fuck? Yeah, that's what it is.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: It's a casserole, okay? Tastes fine, but is it a pizza?
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: No.
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: You know what I think. All right. All right. What
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: else we got here? Let's... Keep going with these games here, man. Oh, sorry.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I went off the rails, man, talking about New Haven.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: They're at Syracuse. What I will say is probably would
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: lead to New Haven in that one. Syracuse is laying 26.5%
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: of the low total. So, I mean, I don't think
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: we even have percentages on this game. But, yeah, I mean,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: I would take the points when it's a huge spread
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: with a low total like that.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Now we get to a couple of the other big
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: games here, at least one of the other big games.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Number 15, Gonzaga, is playing Purdue in Las Vegas. Of course,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: we always have a couple of games out in Las
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Vegas early in the season. Now, the location favors Gonzaga, okay,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: because Gonzaga is a Pacific Coast, a Pacific time zone
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: team already, so they don't have to worry about going
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: somewhere else. different in the country, unlike Purdue, where Purdue
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: has to go west. At least for them, it's not
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: a late, late game. They're going to play at 7.30 p.m. Eastern,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: so it's not that bad for Purdue. But even so,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: I think right away, Gonzaga has a reasonable location edge here.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: So that has me kind of looking towards Gonzaga. Gonzaga's
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: ranked 15th in the country, and the public... They do
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: just kind of look at the rankings and bet based
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: on that. So I don't really want to take Gonzaga here,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: but I think if I was going to play this game,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points of Gonzaga on this one.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I think they have the location edge, but also I
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: still think there's that air around Purdue because Purdue was
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: so good the last couple of years. They were the
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: best team in the Big Ten last year, and they
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: made a run to the Elite Eight in the tournament
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: last year. Purdue... They were in the championship, what, two
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: years before that? So that Purdue team had some nice seasons, man,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: where they were like an elite-level team. They made some
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: nice runs there. They had a lot of returning production,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: but they don't have that anymore. Some of their guys
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: are gone. Kaufman Wren entered the NBA draft, but now
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: he's back in college, and I guess he's going to
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: be playing for Kansas as long as he's going to
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: win his appeals or whatever, which I'm going to talk
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: about that type of situation when I get to St.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Louis as well, which I'll hit briefly on. But I
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: think what people are going to remember is Purdue being
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: still kind of an elite team last year. Gonzaga just
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: kind of faded away last year. But Gonzaga had some
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: pretty significant injuries last year. They were not healthy. I think.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: What was the guy's name? Huff, I think, was the
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: name of one of their best players who was injured
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: going into the tournament. Gonzaga faded out and looked really
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: bad in the tournament. These two teams actually, I think,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: could have faced off in the tournament. And it was,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: I think, likely to happen because it was a three-seed
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga against a two-seed Purdue. But Gonzaga got bounced by
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: Texas in the second round. And in my bracket, I
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: believe I had Gonzaga beating Texas and then losing to
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: Purdue in my bracket. But Gonzaga didn't even get there.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: So I think people might remember that and I think
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: the public sentiment here might be a little bit wrong. Uh,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I think the rankings makers are correct in that Gonzaga
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: currently is better than Purdue. I think Purdue is going
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: to take a step back here and Gonzaga is favored here.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers are also telling you Gonzaga is
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: a better team. The money is fading them, but I
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: just don't agree. Um, Maybe I don't have a good
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: gauge on these early season games, but 95% of the
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: tickets are in Gonzaga and only 83% of the cash
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: on them. They're somewhere around a five-point favorite right now.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: It opened five and a half. If you want to
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: lay the points, the total's not really that low. It's
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: in the 150s, but that is how I would play it.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: I don't like Purdue going out to... uh, you know,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: a location that I think is going to help Gonzaga.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: I think Gonzaga is going to have a better, uh,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: better crowd support there too, uh, because of the location.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: So yeah. And I think Gonzaga coming into this season,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: I think they're better than people think. And I think
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Purdue is worse than people think. So although the public
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: is on Gonzaga, probably because their ranking is kind of
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: driving what the public thinks, but yeah, I would, uh,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: disagree with, with, uh, well, excuse me. I would actually
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: agree with the public in that game. My mistake. Uh,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: I don't want to agree with the public to such
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: an extent that I actually want to play the game.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Hell no. All right, what else we got here? I'm
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: going to try to get through the rest. There's a
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: lot of games here, man. I mean, a lot of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: these games are extremely uninteresting, though. I mean, we got
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: number three, Illinois, in Champaign, Illinois, against Fairleigh Dickinson. You know,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, Fairleigh Dickinson, what people remember is, oh, they
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: beat that other Big Ten team in the tournament as
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: a 16 seed. They beat Purdue. Yeah, that Purdue team
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: was a slowdown, like half-court style. team, though. That is
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: not what Illinois is. Illinois is a fast-paced team, and
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Illinois is bringing back a lot of their guys. So,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, Illinois is probably overvalued here, though,
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: because they made the Final Four last year, and everybody
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: loves that offense of theirs, and they're bringing a bunch
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: of those guys back. Illinois is going to be really
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: good this year. But they're probably overvalued here, so I
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: don't think I'd lay the points, even though it could
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: be a pretty bad mismatch. If Illinois really wants to
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: try to push it here, it's not out of the
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: question they might be able to cover this 37.5, 38.5
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: point spread. The total is in the 150s, which isn't
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: really that high, but Illinois is a very capable offense.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: I think I'd still probably slightly lean towards taking the
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: points in that one, but that one is... As far
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: as liking the underdogs here, I like that one less
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: than a lot of the other ones. And then number 17,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: Kansas against Fordham in Lawrence, Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse or whatever.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: So it is in Kansas. I think Kansas is actually
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than where they're ranked right now.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: The odds makers at Kenbaum, I think, have them ranked
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: higher than this. Kansas, like I said, they got Kauffman
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Wren coming in from the NBA and formerly from Purdue.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if he's going to play right
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: away or not, though. But Kansas... They did lose some
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: of their players from last year. They lost Badunga, I
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: believe was one of their best players. And Darren Peterson,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: I think is his name. He got drafted and Badunga
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: hit the transfer portal. And I believe he is, I
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: want to say he's with Louisville now, correct me if
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong about that. It's hard to remember where everybody
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: is now. What do we do with this? I don't
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: know what we do with this game. I mean, Kansas
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: is laying a ton of points to low total. It's
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: a weird location for Fordham to have to go out
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: to the middle of the country though. Um, This is
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: another one where I'm not really sold on taking the
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: underdog in this one. 83% of tickets, 95% of the
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: cash on Kansas. The money actually playing Kansas here at
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: minus 23.5. The total's not high, though, and it's gotten
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: driven down a little bit to 143.5, so I don't
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: really want to lay 23.5. You know the line's still
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: going to be shaded towards Kansas a little bit because
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: they're a public side. Even if it does look like
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: the professional money is kind of on them, too, And
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: maybe the sentiment is kind of in agreement with me,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: thinking that maybe Kansas is actually a little bit underrated
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: coming into the season, and maybe that's true, but still,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, you've got to worry about how incentivized are
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: they going to be to really win this game by margin,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? And for these games, you
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: do have to look at, like, are they playing anybody
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: big next? Kansas is not. Illinois. Illinois is an interesting
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: game next against Penn, which I believe is a rematch
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: of the round of 64 tournament game last year, which
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: Illinois totally embarrassed Penn in that game. Penn didn't even
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: belong there after Penn had that ridiculous upset of Yale
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: to steal the Ivy League. But Penn probably will put
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: more effort into their next game against Illinois than Illinois
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: will put into it. So that might be a spot
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: where maybe we look towards Pennsylvania in that game. All right.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: What else did I want to hit here as far
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: as games that I might want to talk about here?
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: Sienna and Bryant, I think people are going to remember
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Sienna last year because if you remember, they almost pulled
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: off an upset as a 16th seed against Duke. I
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: think that's what people are going to remember. Oh, yeah,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: I remember the Sienna team, but it was such a fluke, dude.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, Sienna, they won the MATAC last year, and
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: they pulled off a couple of upsets there, although I
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: liked them in the futures market to actually win that
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: conference tournament, and they did, but by the time they
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: got to the NCAA tournament, they only had a five-man
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: tournament rotation there. So Sienna couldn't pull any of their guys.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: So their guys literally had to play the entire game
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: against Duke and they just fell short at the end.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: They got too tired and couldn't pull it off. And
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: they really put a scare into Duke though, if you
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: guys remember that. So I think people will remember that.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: And oh yeah, it's that Sienna team that almost beat Duke.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: So I think the public will side with Sienna here.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: They're a team in upstate New York, I believe. Or
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: at least it's somewhere north of New York City at least.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: Bryant is in Rhode Island. That's where this game is
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: taking place, at Bryant's home arena here. I like Bryant
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: in this one, man. Again, people, I think, are going
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: to just remember what they saw last from Sienna. Oh, yeah,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: and Sienna's only laying two and a half points. All right,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: that looks pretty easy. You just need him to win
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: the game. I would fade that sentiment in this one.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: I would take the couple of points with Bryant in
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: that one if I was going to play it. And
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: then the total is like in the 150s there. So
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: maybe is that a little bit of a delayed hangover?
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: I think when you have all offseason, though, and you
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: might have totally different personnel, you're not really going to
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: have like a hangover from a game like that, but maybe.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: But at the very least, I think the public is
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: just going to be too heavy on their side because
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: of what they did last year. So those are my
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that one. What else do we have here?
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: There is one more big game in the late night slate,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: but first I'm going to talk about Lehigh and St.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: Louis real quickly.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: St.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: Louis is a huge favorite here, but I don't like
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: the spot for St. Louis because they do have a
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: huge game on deck against Missouri, which is obviously a
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: little brother, big brother situation. They've got to play against
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: the University of Missouri. So I think they might overlook Lehigh.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: This Lehigh team is real bad, though. Patriot League, terrible league.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if I want Lehigh having to
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: go play in St. Louis. Kind of a weird situation
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: for Lehigh to have to go out there and play
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the country. Lehigh is in Pennsylvania,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: if you don't know. So it's kind of a weird
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: location for them. But if I was going to play this,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Lehigh. For St. Louis,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: there's something going on with Robby Avila. You know, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: everybody knows who he is at this point. I knew
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: who he was years ago, though, when he was on
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Indiana State, and he made the transfer to St. Louis,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: and St. Louis was really good in the American, in the,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: what is it, the Atlantic 10, St. Louis in the
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Atlantic 10 totally makes sense. Yeah, I mean, they should
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: still be in the Missouri Valley, man. I don't know
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: what else to tell you. I hate these weird geographic changes.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, everybody remembers St. Louis being awesome and their
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: offense being insanely good. And they had that one ridiculous
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: offensive performance in the tournament blowing out Georgia before finally St.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: Louis then themselves got blown out by Michigan. But people
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: are not going to dock St. Louis for that. You
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Michigan was the best team in
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: the country and won the tournament. Um, so people are
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: going to remember all of that, obviously. Oh yeah.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: St. Louis.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: And they're probably, if they're going to play this game,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: they're probably going to lay the points. I wouldn't do
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: it though. Cause they have Missouri on deck. Um, which
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: is a big look ahead. People remember St. Louis being
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: great offensively and Robbie Avila. So what's going on with
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: him is he got drafted by the Lakers, but then
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, I guess we're going to send him to
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: the G league or whatever. And he wasn't going to play.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: So he, is trying to reenter college basketball, and he's
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: technically on St. Louis' roster, I think, right now. So
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: he's trying to come back and play at St. Louis again.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: The rules are all crazy now because he's already, like,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: what is he, 24 probably now, whatever. But I think
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: he won his first appeal or something, but there's going
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: to be another court decision because, of course, it becomes
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: a legal battle just to be able to play. But
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: this is the new NIL era, man. But I think
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: he is going to wind up playing again. again for St. Louis,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: but he's not playing in this game, so that's the thing.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Avila is not going to be playing in this game.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: And yeah, St. Louis, they did play a few games
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: without him last year when he was hurt. I think
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: he was hurt at the beginning of the year last year,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: so they are used to that, but I would lean
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: towards Lehigh plus the points in this one. Do I
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: really want to do it, though, with this travel spot
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: for them? And Lehigh, I know how putrid they are.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: No.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: Even though that's being factored into the line, a team
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: being bad isn't a good enough reason to not play them,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: but If you want to play Lehigh, you'll be able
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: to get about 24, 25 points here, somewhere in that range.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: Total's not terribly high in the 150s. Usually, St. Louis
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: has higher totals than that, so I don't know. Maybe
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Lehigh will be able to ugly this thing up enough.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe St. Louis will start looking ahead, but I do
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: prefer the Lehigh side in that one.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: As I keep going here, I'm just trying to hit
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: some of the rest of these games that might be
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: more interesting before I get out of here. There is
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: one more big game I realize that I haven't hit yet.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to kind of hit all the... And I
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: do have one more play, actually, too, somewhere in here.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It'll be the next game up, actually. Yeah. Here
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: we go. Gardner-Webb at number four, UConn. I already mentioned
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: I think UConn is an overvalued team coming into this
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: season because UConn made the championship last year. And I
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: thought that they... overperformed man like I thought Duke was
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: going to knock them out and they should have like
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Duke had UConn pretty much dead in that game I
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: can't believe Duke if I remember correctly Duke blew that
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: game like epically in the elite eight and I had
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: UConn uh out I think against Michigan State in my
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: bracket like I did not think highly of UConn and
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: UConn yeah they're well coached whatever of course they they
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: do tend to overperform just because their coach is really
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: good but Still, UConn, they're not the fourth best team
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: in the country. I think Kenbaum has them probably around 10,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: let me say. Where does Kenbaum have UConn? He has
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: them at number 11 right now, so they are overranked
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: by the rankings makers here. Uh, Yukon is a good
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: defensive team, but they're not as good. I mean, they're,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to say they're a bad offensive team
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: cause that's not true, but they're not an elite offensive team.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: Ken bomb currently has them ranked. I think like 27th
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: on offense and like a top five defense, of course,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: cause they're a good defense, but not a good enough
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: offense to be considered a top four team in the country.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: And Yukon also slows the game down. That's their thing.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: They play at a snail's pace a lot of the times.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: so that's not what you want we're gonna lay it's
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: on a point so yeah as you can tell I'm
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: taking Gardner Webb plus thirty eight and a half in
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: this game it's a ton of points man I don't
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: see Yukon being incentivized to just blow them out of
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: the building here and I know Gardner Webb is awful
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: and Real bad. Like literally one of the worst teams
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: in all of college basketball. Ken Palm has them in
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the bottom 15 teams probably. I get that. But they
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: cashed for us a couple of times last year in
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: games like this. And this is all about just UConn
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: not having enough motivation to do this. Um, and Ken bomb,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: I think as you come winning this game by somewhere
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: around 35, 36 by Ken bomb, by the way, if
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: you want to get all these numbers, but yeah, he
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: does actually have, even though he has Gardner web is
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the country. He does
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: have them still covering. That's just how crazy this number
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: is in a game against Yukon. And I know this
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: is going to sound insane, but. I am going to
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: posit that UConn is in a sandwich spot here. And
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: you might think, well, how is that possible when UConn,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: this is the first game of the season, right? How
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: could they be in a sandwich spot? Well, as we know,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: they made that run to the championship game last year.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: They played pretty close. I gave out a play on them,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: if I remember correctly. taking the points with UConn in
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: the championship, I'm pretty sure I did, and they did,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: they got there, they covered them, if I remember correctly,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: they did, right, against Michigan, and everything worked for us,
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: because we had Michigan winning in the bracket as well
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: that I gave out on the show, but yeah, UConn,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: they did have to play, you know, extra, like, they
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: had to make that run all the way to the championship,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: and sometimes the team can be kind of just a
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: little bit more tired as a program after making a
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: huge run like that. Plus, when a team gets that
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: close to the championship and they fall short, there's a
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of a hangover effect there coming into the
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: next season, as long as a lot of the personnel
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: is the same. And for UConn, yeah, I mean, they
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: have a decent amount of returning production here. So I
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: think we may see that be the case here. I
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: think they might have that runner-up lull here, the championship
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: loser lull here, whatever you want to call it, like
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown here. But it's a
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: sandwich because guess who they play in the next game? Yeah,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: I think I already showed it because I already talked
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: about the team that they're playing next. They're playing Michigan next. Yeah,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: they're playing the team that beat them in the championship
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: last year. If you want to call it this, they're
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: in a Michigan sandwich here. I don't know what kind
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: of sandwiches they eat in Michigan, but that's what they're
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: in here. Ridiculous. So obviously that's a massive game. As
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: far as revenge is concerned, revenge for losing in the championship,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: that's about as big as it gets. So that is
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: a monster game for UConn. coming up in a couple
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: of days i think they're gonna want to just get
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: in get out they're not gonna take garter webb seriously
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: at all um a monster game for yukon there yeah
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: yukon this game by the way is also not in
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: stores connecticut it's at yukon's uh other arena which is
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: in hartford connecticut um so i think that also takes
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: away from their home court advantage so yukon Their campus
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: is in Storrs, Connecticut. They have an arena there, but
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: it's a smaller arena. But that arena gives them more
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: of a home court advantage because the crowd is right
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: on top of the opponent, right on top of the court.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: It gets way louder in there. And when it's on campus,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: all the rowdy college kids can just easily go to
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: the game. You know what I mean? But this is
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: going to be in Hartford, Connecticut, so people have to
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: drive there. And Hartford is a bigger arena. It's at
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: the Hartford Civic Center or whatever the hell it is,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. And the type of crowd that goes
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: to that leans more towards the old money UConn fans.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? The people that are in
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: heart for Connecticut. It's all the rich alumni of Connecticut
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: or the people that go to those games more so
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: than the actual current students. Although it would be a
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: mix of both. But Connecticut has less of a home
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: court advantage when they play in this bigger arena there.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: Is the crowd really going to be massively excited for Gardner-Webb?
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man. And at least for the
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: two games we've given out here as plays, we don't
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: have to worry much about a time zone change or
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: anything like that here with Ball State going to play
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: in Georgia. And here we got Ball State's in Indiana,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: if you didn't know. And then we have just two
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Eastern time zone teams playing each other in this one.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Oops, I just had it. There it is. Yeah,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: UConn's already gone down from 38.5 to 37.5. There are
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: still 38.5s out there, though, and it is a low total.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: Like I said, 147.5, pretty low, so taking the points
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: makes more sense in a game with a huge total
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: like this. That's the way UConn plays. They slow the
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: game way down, so... um you know i mean uconn
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: can win this game by 30 and we still clear
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: this number by quite a bit so let's uh let's
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: do it we're yeah as ugly as it is this
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: is how you do early season basketball i mean it
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: worked out decent for me last year so gardner webb
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: plus 38 and a half is the play um we
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: can laugh about it but you know we want to
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: do what uh what works here all right uh then
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: we have um In Austin, Texas, we have number seven
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: Texas against Chicago State. You know I'm high on Texas
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: this season. And the rankings makers, I think, are not
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: that far off with Texas right now because everybody just
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: kind of knows Texas loaded during the offseason. They got
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: a bunch of pickups. But for Texas, yeah, I think
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: they're going to have a good season, really good probably,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: but it's going to take time for them. all those
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: new pieces to gel. You know what I mean? They
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: basically replaced their whole team. They stacked their team with
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: all newcomers. So I don't think it's going to work
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: right away necessarily for them. And this is a pretty
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: low total in the 140s with a huge spread. So
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Chicago State, plus the points in
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: this one. Chicago State, I mean, they were horrifically bad
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: for a while. One of the absolute worst teams in
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: all of D1 basketball, but last year they weren't as
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: bad as that, so maybe they're not quite that bad now.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: Where does Ken Baum have them at? I mean, he
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: does have them still in the bottom 25 teams, so yeah,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: they're bad, but I would still take the points in
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: this one if I was going to do anything with it.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: I think it'll take Texas a little while to gel. Obviously,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think Texas is going to lose, but you'd
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: be able to get 40.5 potentially if you take Chicago State.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: The total's all over the place. It's mostly in the
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: high 140s, so it is a pretty low total there,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: so it makes sense to take the points there. CBS
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: Sports at 9 p.m. We got number 10 Houston against LaSalle.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: This game is in Houston, so kind of a weird
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: travel spot. For Chicago, I think they're staying in the
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: central time zone. And I believe I fucked up the
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: other day, by the way, when I said... One of
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: the Michigan, I think Michigan itself, I thought they were
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: in the Central. I guess they're in the Eastern time zone.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: Is that right? I don't know. I never remember where
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: the line is between Eastern and Central there. I'm so
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: far East, I'm like, that must be a Central time
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: zone over there. I don't know. Anyway, LaSalle, I know
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: they're an Eastern time zone team. They're in the Philadelphia area,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: and they're going to Houston here. It's a little bit
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: of a weird travel spot there, but This Houston team,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: they've completely reloaded too. So Houston, not a lot of
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: returning production here. They're ranked 10th in the country to
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: start the season. Ken Baum still has them ranked really high.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: And I guess it's just the Kelvin Sampson effect there.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: He just coaches really well, and they're usually very good fundamentally.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: Very good on defense, but with all new pieces, they're
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: on a slow-paced defensive team. Yeah, I think it's going to, again,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: take time for their new pieces to gel. And you
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: don't want to lay points with a team like that
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: where their offense might not be totally in sync yet
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: and they're more of a defensive slowdown team. This is
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: a really low total, too. So I would, again, take
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: the points of the underdog in that one and lead
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: towards LaSalle. See if we can see the percentages here.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: I hate how this website does this. uh houston 91
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: of the tickets 87 of the cash on them so
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: houston obviously a public side because everybody knows how good
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: they've been in recent years they're laying 29 and a
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: half basically a 30 at some places total really low
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: in the in the mid to high 130s so yeah
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: not a lot of leeway there so yeah i would
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: lean towards lasalle plus the points for all those reasons
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: um acc network at 9 p.m just as I'm hitting
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: all the ranked teams. Louisville, number 11, hosting Chattanooga here.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: Chattanooga usually is one of the somewhat better teams in
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: the SOCON, I think is the conference they're in. Obviously,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: they'll get up for a game against Louisville, you know.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I should again be looking to
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: see if these teams have look-aheads. I keep forgetting. I
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: did look earlier, but let's take a look. Texas, they
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: play Gardner-Webb next. Gardner-Webb really tested themselves early on. Houston
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: has Cal next. I don't think that's that big of
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: a deal, even though it is a power conference team,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: at least. Louisville is only playing Moorhead State next. So
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: that's an in-state big little brother situation because Moorhead, I believe,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: is in Moorhead, Kentucky. So great name there. That's actually
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: where Dave Portnoy was, not in Lexington. He was in Moorhead, Kentucky,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: if you get what I'm driving at there. What was
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: I going to say? Oh, yeah, Louisville. Louisville is expected
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: to be good this year and take another step forward.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: They hit the transfer portal pretty hard, so they were
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: one of the teams that, made a big splash in
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal. But again, I will say, I think
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: the chemistry is going to take a little while with
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: those new pieces there. So again, I think I would
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: probably lean towards the dog in this one. Louisville's up
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: to a 31.5-point favorite, though. That line has gone up,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: and it's not a low total, really. It's in the
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: high 150s. Louisville is more of an offensive team here. Yeah,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, again, I'd lean slightly towards taking the points
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: of the dog, but that one I am less.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah that one I don't feel as good about you
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: know what I mean next game we have another actually
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: we have a few other big games to talk about
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: here a couple other big games. This one, Ohio State
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: and number 25, BYU. This is in Utah in Salt
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: Lake City, so it's a semi-home game for BYU. So
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: it's not in Provo, I think is where they play,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: so it's not there, but it's in Salt Lake City.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: So kind of a weird spot for Ohio State to
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: have to go play kind of a later game in
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: high elevation. So the location definitely favors BYU here, but...
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Ohio State in this game. I
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: think BYU, because they're ranked and Ohio State isn't ranked.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: Everybody remembers BYU making these tournament runs last couple of
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: years or runs to the tournament at least last couple
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: of years. But BYU doesn't have DeBonsai anymore. He got
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: drafted number one in the draft, Washington Wizards. So BYU
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: is going to have to somehow... replace that offensive production.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be able to do
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: that right away. I mean, he was an elite player
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: for them. So this BYU team is going to take
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: a step back. Ohio State, I feel like they've been
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: under the radar the last couple years. They've been this
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: team that's like on the verge of being able to
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: make the tournament and just haven't really quite been able
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: to do it. But they're definitely a competitive team. And
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: the line looks way too easy to me to take BYU.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we remember BYU being really good last couple years.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Nobody's going to remember Ohio State doing much of anything.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: BYU is definitely public. 86% of tickets on them. Only
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: 70% of the cash. And they're laying kind of a
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: cheap looking price at 3.5. So it looks too easy
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: to me to play BYU. So I do like Ohio
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: State plus the points in that one. Do I really
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: want to do it though? Them having to deal with
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: high elevation playing out there in a semi home game
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: for BYU. No, not really. But again, I would leave
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: Ohio state in that one, just based on perception, um,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: where the odds figures are telling you, there's not really
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: much that really separates those two teams power rating wise.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: And Ken bomb probably agrees with that. He's got BYU
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: 33 and he has Ohio state 18. So Ken bomb
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: actually does have Ohio state somewhat significantly better. Um, And
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: hold on, I'm going to, can I copy? I can.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: I don't want to show any of his paid pages,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: but I'll just give you a little bit of the
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: rundown here. He's got, wow.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: Wow.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: He actually has Ohio State winning this game in his projection. Again,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: because he has no data from this year to really
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: go on yet, I would take that with a little
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: bit of grain of salt, but When Ken Baum has
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: an underdog of a few points actually winning the game,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: that is something I do kind of pay attention to,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: even though the odds makers, they don't usually fuck up
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: too badly like that. You know what I mean? So
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: I think the reality probably lies somewhere in between. But yeah,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: Ken Baum is at least telling you there's enough value
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: there maybe to make that play. So I do agree
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: with it. I like Ohio State in that one, but
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: still can't do it because I don't like the venue,
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: the location well enough, although Ken Baum does factor that
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: into his equations there. All right. And then in these
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: late games, you got to take into account you got
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: East Coast teams going out to the West Coast. So
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: what I will say is I don't like any of
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: the East Coast teams playing in the late night West
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: Coast games, man. It's just I'll either fade them or
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: stay away from the game. You know what I mean?
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: Because I think it's just bad for their biological clock,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: although at least for them. Maybe they have time to
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: get out there a little bit earlier because they know
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: that their first game is out there. So maybe they
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: have a little bit extra time to adjust. But I
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: still don't like it. So, you know, like Davidson and
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: Washington State there. I lean towards Washington State for that reason.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: They're public. 90% of the tickets, 93% of the cash
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: on them. Dropped from a three-point favorite to a two-and-a-half-point favorite.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: But to me, I think Davidson at least gets some
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: name recognition in the public's eye because it's Steph Curry's
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: school at least. So I don't know. And they're not
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: going to think much about Washington State right now. uh,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: Washington state, I believe they're in the new newly formed
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: pack 12, right? That's taking place in bad. I don't
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: know why this is scrolling on me here. Come on, man.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: I want to get through the rest of these games here.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: Not too many left. I'm going to talk. Yeah. The,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: the new pack 12 is formed. So another thing we
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: have to worry about here, we have, uh, the mountain
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: West and Pacific and pack 12 kind of realigned a
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: bit here. So we have to be aware of these
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: conference shifts and conference realignments. Gonzaga, by the way, I
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: should have mentioned is now in the pack 12. Um,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: in basketball obviously not in football but in basketball they
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: are um and you know like boise state's in there
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: now in both and some of those other teams have
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: moved over there as well um so yeah very similar
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: uh like i mean most of the schools uh that
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: are in the pac-12 in football are also in there
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: in basketball all right um what else uh that was
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: just uh you know um to kind of illustrate, you know,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: like I don't like these East coast teams going out West.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: All right. Then we have the other big game on
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: tap here, ranked versus ranked 10 PM. It's the other
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas game on TNT. Both of these teams, I
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: think are fine with this venue. Cause it's number five, Arizona,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: number 22, UCLA in this one. So you got two
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: teams that are, that are close geographically to Las Vegas.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: So UCLA, I mean, both of these teams are going
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: to get good crowd representation too. So I don't know.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: UCLA has a lot more history though, but, The public
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: is going to be on Arizona in this one because
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: they remember Arizona. Arizona was, the public liked Arizona basically
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: to win the whole thing last year, right? So I
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: faded them a little bit there. I took Arizona to
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: the Final Four in my bracket and had them lose
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: to Michigan in my bracket. But the public is going
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: to still be high on Arizona. They're not going to
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: knock them out that much for losing to Arizona. Michigan,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: in the Final Four last year. But this Arizona team,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: they have some turnover here. They're bringing back Krivas and
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: a couple of their other guys, but some of their
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: guys have left. So I don't know how good this
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: Arizona team is going to be. They were really good
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: and really deep last year, though, so they're good. But
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: UCLA might be a little bit under the radar because they...
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: They just weren't fully healthy last year a lot of
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: the time. Then when they got healthy, they looked pretty good,
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: and they made that decent run in the Big Ten tournament.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Of course, they did get knocked out of the NCAA
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: tournament by UConn, but UConn made that nice run there.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: I kind of like UCLA here, but the problem that
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: I have with it is that UCLA, I think, has
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: more turnover than Arizona does. I think UCLA is replacing
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of their guys, but they seem to be
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: kind of... on the upswing again and rebuilding the program
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: to the point where they can get better recruits and
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: have better recruiting classes now. So they're able to kind
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: of reload really, I should say, rather than rebuild. But
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: I just think the public's going to be a bit
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: too heavy on Arizona here based on what we saw
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: last year. And I think UCLA can compete here. So
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: I prefer UCLA plus the points in this one. The
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: public is on Arizona, 92% of tickets on them, 87%
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. They're a four and a
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. the total's not too high in the 140s,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: high 140s. So taking the points, you know, maybe it
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: helps taking the case or taking the points a little
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: bit there. I think both these teams are probably going
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: to be pretty good on defense. Ken Bum does have
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: Arizona as a top five defense and number seven in
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: the country. He's got UCLA. Number 25, so he has
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: both these teams as being a little bit over-ranked by
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: the rankings makers. He has UCLA as a very competitive defense, though.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: Top 15 defense. He does have Arizona as the better
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: team on both sides of the ball, though. But UCLA,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: they're going to try to slow the game down. And
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: you know, I like that. The underdog that might have
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: the ability to slow the game down. Like I said,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: it's easier for the underdog to slow the game down
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: than it is for an underdog to try to speed
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: a slow team up. slowing the game down is easier
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: because you can just kind of hang on to the
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: ball and run your half-court offense in a way, although
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: Arizona will try to turn them over and stuff, but still. Yeah,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: I like UCLA in that one somewhat, plus the points there.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: All right. I'm going to hit Montana, Oregon briefly here
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: on the Big Ten Network at 10 p.m. because Oregon,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: this is at Oregon, and Oregon... They played really badly
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season last year in some
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: of these home games. The big favorite, they were really bad.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: And I don't know what to expect from them this
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: year because their coach who'd been there for a while,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: Dana Altman, really good tournament coach. He seemed to always
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: get the most out of his players when they got
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: into the tournament. He retired. So Oregon now has an
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: interim coach. Altman, I think he just announced his retirement recently.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: and now Oregon's using an interim coach. Now, it means
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: they won't change their system because they're going to use
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: a coach that's already there, and the players already know
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: him and whatever, so their continuity should be okay in
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: that regard, but you don't really know what they're going
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: to look like with that new coach there, so I'd
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: be pretty hesitant, especially, again, because Oregon looks so bad
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: in these types of games earlier in the season, and
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: Montana is usually one of the better teams in the
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: Big Sky Conference, at least, and this isn't going to
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: be a weird location for them to have to go to, really,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: Oregon's laying about 18 points here or so right now.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: Totals in the mid-range in the 150s, and I think
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: I would probably actually take the points with Montana in
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: that one, but not a strong opinion from me there.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: And then I'm going to mention Arizona State briefly because
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: they got a new coach there. Randy Bennett has moved
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: over from St. Mary's. He was at St. Mary's for
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: a long time, built them up, really good coach. Now
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: he's at Arizona State, so we'll see how they're able
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: to do there, but I think there's going to be
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: some I don't think Arizona State's going to hit the
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: ground running right away. There's going to be some continuity.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: I think there'll be some lack of continuity there, right,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: because a new coach is coming in. He's got to
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: implement his new system. I think he did bring over
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: at least one or two of his players, actually. I
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: think he brought over one of the best players from St. Mary's,
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: so he did do that, which is, hold on, I
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: can probably tell you who it is. I want to
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: say his name is Maroskis, but I forget who all
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: these players' names are or what all these players' names are.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Yeah, I got it right. Yeah, Paulius Maroskis. Yeah, him,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: the Lithuanian guy who was at St. Mary's with Randy Bennett.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: So they are staying together. So there is some continuity
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: with those two, at least. But, you know, here you
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: get east tennessee state having to go all the way
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: to the west like well not to the west coast
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: but to the western part of the country for its
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: nbm game that seems difficult to me for east tennessee
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: so yeah i don't love that for east tennessee so
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: i actually probably duke annalena arizona state here even though
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: i'd worry about their continuity issues a bit um Don't
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: see the percentages on this one either. Arizona State's a
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: 17 and a half point favorite in that one. You know,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, continuity issues perhaps, but I think Arizona State,
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: you know, with the coach and his best players still
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: continuing to play, I think they might be able to
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: be okay out of the gate there. So I might
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: actually lay the points in that one. And Arizona State
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: does not have a bigger game on deck. Neither does
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: Oregon for what it's worth. Liberty and High Point, by
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: the way, in a close game at halftime right now
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: if we're following. If anybody's going to be totally degenerate
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: and stay up for all these games. I'm almost done
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: with this show. I've already hit all the big games.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Were there any other games I wanted
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: to talk about? Not really, although be aware St. Mary's
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: did lose their coach, and I believe their new coach
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: is a guy who was already there, so I think
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: they elevated one of their assistants or whatever to the
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: head coach now, so we'll see what continuity issues there
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: might be there with St. Mary's. They're not a type
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: of team you want to really lay points with, though,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: because they slow the game down. And Illinois State, their
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: opponent is actually supposed to be pretty solid this year in,
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: where are they, the Missouri Valley still, I think. That
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: Illinois State team. They, I think, did some stuff in
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal where they're actually supposed to be pretty good.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: And you can see that's the case. The St. Mary's
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: is actually a six-and-a-half-point favorite in that game. That seems
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: to be a really low spread for St. Mary's. I
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: think the public will be on St. Mary's because of that,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: because they have the name recognition. They made the tournament
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: the last couple years. And with that turnover that they
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: have there, I actually think I might lean towards Illinois
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: State there, because that line... Kind of jumps out at me, like,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: why would that line be so short on St. Mary's?
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? They're very public, too. 87%
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, 90% of the cash on them. But, yeah,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Illinois State, probably. It's
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: around 6.5 everywhere. It's a pretty low total in the 140s.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: St.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: Mary's is known for playing real slow there. But, obviously,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: the thing I really don't like about it is Illinois
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: State going to the western part of the country, to
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: the west coast for this one. You know what I mean?
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: Having to adjust to the Pacific time. I don't like that. So,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: I would hold off on that one as well. And
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: then I'll just briefly hit number 21, USC. This is
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: in LA. Is that USC's home arena, though? I'm not
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: even sure if it is. I think it is because
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: it says at. They're hosting Milwaukee, formerly UW-Milwaukee. Difficult for
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee to have to go out to the Pacific coast, man.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: As I'm going to say again, with one of these
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: like central teams going out West, having to adjust their
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: bio clocks to a 10 30 PM Eastern game. Not
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: that easy, but USC is ranked and they have the
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: name recognition. So the public will be on them 25,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: 26 and a half, uh, somewhere in that range, um,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: is where the number is on USC there. Um, as
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: far as USC, you know, so we can see who
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: they have next, by the way, I got to see
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: who St. Mary's has next for us to St. Mary's
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: does play North Dakota state next. You could argue, maybe
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: there's a look ahead component to that. Cause North, North
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: Dakota state's one of the better teams in the summit
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: and they won the summit last year. Um, although I
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: was rooting for the Tommy's to do it, uh, for once,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: you know, St. Thomas still has not been able to
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: do it. Um, got upset. I'm pretty sure by North
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: Dakota state and that were got upset earlier in the tournament.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe I forget, but whatever. Um, Yeah, so maybe St.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: Mary's has a little bit of a look-ahead component there.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: Does USC is what I was going to look at here.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: I did look earlier. I mean, USC does have Wichita
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: on deck, and Wichita did have some really good years,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: although they're not that good right now. But they're one
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: of the, I think, top half American conference teams at least.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: So maybe USC does put a little bit more weight
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: into that next game. But do I want to take
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee going out west? No, I do not. I'd probably
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: still lean maybe towards laying it with USC. I don't know, man.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: I'm just talking out of my ass at this point, though,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: and that's going to do it. The last game that
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: we have right before midnight to complete the 24-hour marathon
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: is Seattle and Hawaii, and then college basketball resumes with
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: a bit of a smaller board tomorrow in the evening tomorrow,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: so no more games. After the Hawaii game, there won't
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: be any games for.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: For however many hours that's going to be. It'll be
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: about 18 hours or I guess 16 hours or something
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: like that after that game finishes until the next game
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: in the evening tomorrow, so whatever it is. I don't
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: have anything on that game, by the way. Seattle, Hawaii.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's usually a weird spot for teams to
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: have to travel out to Hawaii, so Hawaii might have
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a home edge there. However, Hawaii
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: made the tournament last year, though, and that's kind of
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: the issue I would have with that is that people
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: might remember that, oh, yeah, that Hawaii team, they won
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: the conference, the Big West last year, had that, I
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: think they had an upset, wait, am I remembering that correctly? Wait, no, Hawaii,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: are they in the Mountain West? Wait, hang on, where's
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: Hawaii at? I think they used to be in the
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: Big West. Yeah, they're in the Mountain West now. they
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: didn't win the mountain West last year. I think they
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: moved to the mountain West. Yeah. The mountain West realigned.
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: So Hawaii is in the mountain West now.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: This is going to take in basketball. It's going to
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: take an adjustment period for me, man, to remember like
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: where all these teams even are. Cause that was a
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: big shake up there. I believe Hawaii won the big
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: West last year, I believe is the name of that conference. Uh, Yeah,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: and made the tournament out of that conference. But then I'm... Oh,
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: I'm confusing it with the WAC. I think the WAC disbanded.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: That's where Seattle was in the WAC last year, and
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: the WAC became WAC, and... Cal Baptist wound up winning
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: the WAC and having their first tournament berth. Yeah, so
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: the WAC, I think, disbanded and those teams just went everywhere.
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: And Seattle wound up in the WCC, which does make sense. Actually,
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle was already out of the WAC. So
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the WAC does still exist. I
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: think Seattle was in the WAC for a little while. Dude,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember. I think Seattle moved. They were
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: in the West Coast Conference last year, I think, Seattle.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: So I think they're actually staying in that conference this year. Whatever, man.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: It's all crazy. But yeah, maybe... Hawaii might have a
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: little bit of extra hype, though, because they made the
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: tournament last year at least. And Seattle goes a little
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar there. I don't really want to
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: take Seattle in that type of travel spot, though. So
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: that's going to do it. There you go. You get
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: an hour and a half for the basketball marathon there.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: That's me going quick. Great. We got two plays in
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: college basketball. We're going to be on Ball State, minus
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I know how ugly these look, man,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: but we're trying to find the spots that I think
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: are the best. We're going to take Gardner-Webb plus 38.5.
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: Those are my two plays for college basketball tomorrow. I'll
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: be back in the morning. I still haven't decided if
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: I want to make a play on the Monday night
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: football game, although this is the first time I think
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: all season I've been below. 500 for all my picks
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: for a week in NFL. I'm one game below. 500.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: We can get back to. 500 if we get the
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: Bears right tomorrow because I will pick them at least tomorrow.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: It's up in the air whether I want to put
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: them on my card or not, though. We will see.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: We had a bad week. A couple of the losses
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: were bullshit for sure, but I told you, I warned
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: you that I did not have a good read on
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: this NFL card this week. Yeah, it is what it is, man.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: It was the hardest week that I've seen all season.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: I hated it, and we got fucked. Well, I'll talk
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: about it tomorrow. I'll rant at the beginning of the
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: show because it'll probably be a short show. There won't
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: be that many games we've got to cover, but learn
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: to tell on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok. Check it all out. Like,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here, of course. Give me good comments,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: all that good stuff. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube, you
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: can check out patreon.com slash learn to toad if you
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: want to support me there. Loser cast every Tuesday night.
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: That'll be it. Peace out, everybody. Until tomorrow morning.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out That bad luck bites hard
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: Stay with me now
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo