Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / A Parlay Full of NFL Thanksgiving Games, Featuring Blackjack Fletcher

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A Parlay Full of NFL Thanksgiving Games, Featuring Blackjack Fletcher · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I am Jeff Schwartz. This is
0:11
Speaker 1: the Parlay Show. Chat Molman is out this week, and
0:14
Speaker 1: alongside me as usual, Paula Duca and when Chat is out,
0:18
Speaker 1: our favorite person in the world, black Jack Fletcher. All right,
0:21
Speaker 1: we're talking a little bit off the air, and Paully,
0:24
Speaker 1: I feel like you have some grievances to air about
0:27
Speaker 1: the way things went this past weekend. Keep black Jack
0:30
Speaker 1: laughing already. You you accused me before of the guy
0:34
Speaker 1: who laughs while you're talking, So I'm trying to be
0:36
Speaker 1: respectful of your of your sadness right now, but I
0:39
Speaker 1: will probably be laughing quite soon. True rough day yesterday, Uh,
0:49
Speaker 1: wake up this morning. You guys are both on professional
0:52
Speaker 1: podcast equipment. My antennat just been it's been literally been
0:56
Speaker 1: sitting here. I don't have a cat, I don't have
0:58
Speaker 1: a dog. I have nothing. The antenna breaks a month.
1:02
Speaker 1: I have nothing. I literally have nothing. I need mark
1:08
Speaker 1: Ingram to go two ft. I need Carson Wentz to
1:12
Speaker 1: stop throwing the ball to the mascot. That's all I
1:15
Speaker 1: needed is two more points from them. And I need
1:20
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan to hop out of a woman's clothing clothing
1:26
Speaker 1: and actually man up one time and when it came
1:28
Speaker 1: at home. That's that's all I'm asking for it, That's
1:31
Speaker 1: all I'm asking for. His name him that I got.
1:36
Speaker 1: Even having a nickname now is embarrassing. He's a fucking joke. Wow, Wow,
1:43
Speaker 1: hot start. How was your How was your weekend? Jack?
1:47
Speaker 1: It wasn't too bad. I did okay on Saturday yesterday.
1:50
Speaker 1: You know, the Vikings game really really was a tough
1:54
Speaker 1: one to swallow, big game. Kirk Cousins showed up as
1:57
Speaker 1: usual um and got swallowed alive by the Bears. So uh,
2:01
Speaker 1: that hurt. That hurt because that was very high on
2:03
Speaker 1: the Vikings. But other than that, wasn't bad. Four and twelve.
2:06
Speaker 1: Cousins is in prime time football games and some of
2:10
Speaker 1: those wins are against like the Giants last year and
2:12
Speaker 1: the Raiders last year and the Cowboys last year. That
2:15
Speaker 1: we're not any good and I think that overvalued maybe him,
2:18
Speaker 1: and you're right, but it was weird. I had I
2:19
Speaker 1: had plus three last night on the Vikings, they could
2:22
Speaker 1: have I could have gotten a push, which would have
2:24
Speaker 1: been a miracle push quite honestly, because they didn't play
2:26
Speaker 1: well the entire night. But before we get to to
2:29
Speaker 1: our show, which is a nine team parlay that we
2:31
Speaker 1: were preview next week. We got to talk about the
2:33
Speaker 1: game tonight. This is we we we record this on
2:36
Speaker 1: Monday morning. We we appreciate everyone who listens throughout the week.
2:39
Speaker 1: But let's talk a little bit about tonight. If you're
2:41
Speaker 1: listening to UM for UH this morning, I should say
2:44
Speaker 1: getting ready for the game tonight in the Colosseum Chiefs
2:46
Speaker 1: and a Rams. I personally love the Chiefs at plus
2:51
Speaker 1: three here. Uh is not that I'm a Chiefs homer.
2:53
Speaker 1: My brother plays to the Chiefs. I thought it out there.
2:55
Speaker 1: I think the Rams defense it's not very good. Well,
2:58
Speaker 1: I know they're not very good. They're they're allowing twenty
3:00
Speaker 1: seven points a game over their last uh their last
3:04
Speaker 1: seven games. But really the stat that is important to
3:07
Speaker 1: us on this show, gambling show. We know this, good
3:09
Speaker 1: teams cover, great assume, good teams win, great teams cover.
3:12
Speaker 1: The Rams are a great team there won five and
3:15
Speaker 1: one against the spread their last seven games. I got
3:18
Speaker 1: the Chiefs tonight with all these points, it is gonna
3:20
Speaker 1: be scoring this game and and and plus the three.
3:23
Speaker 1: I love this play Blackjack. What's your favorite bet tonight?
3:27
Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard to disagree with you, Jeff. I
3:29
Speaker 1: think Kansas City is the better team here. I think
3:31
Speaker 1: they're better position to win this game. Um. The defense
3:35
Speaker 1: for Kansas City has been getting better as the year
3:36
Speaker 1: goes on. It's been the opposite for the Rams, especially
3:39
Speaker 1: with the loss of to lead. I'm gonna tell you what, though, Jeff,
3:42
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a little crazy tonight, and I'm gonna
3:45
Speaker 1: take Kansas City on the money line at plus one
3:47
Speaker 1: fifty at a lot of books, all right. I like
3:50
Speaker 1: the Chiefs outright in this game. Keep the points, don't
3:53
Speaker 1: want them, don't need them, plus one fifty Kansas City.
3:58
Speaker 1: I can't argue with both of you, guys. I think
4:00
Speaker 1: they're both good plays. If I had to play tonight,
4:02
Speaker 1: I probably played Gurly over the yardage because I think
4:05
Speaker 1: that that's the way Maphay's got to play this game.
4:08
Speaker 1: I know he's shifting and he likes he's gonna have
4:11
Speaker 1: his trick plays. And listen, they got all their weapons too,
4:14
Speaker 1: but he's one Achilles deal for the Chiefs is they
4:17
Speaker 1: have trouble stopping to run at time. So I would
4:20
Speaker 1: go over the yardage with Gurley because I think they're
4:22
Speaker 1: gonna have to give the ball to him a lot,
4:24
Speaker 1: and they get to the Chiefs softens off the field.
4:27
Speaker 1: You know, I am a agree with you. So if
4:30
Speaker 1: you're listening today, place those bets. Good luck and winning
4:33
Speaker 1: those But the point of this show is to take
4:36
Speaker 1: a look at the lines head in front of us.
4:39
Speaker 1: For this week of football. We make three picks each
4:42
Speaker 1: we parlay them together for one massive parlay. We can
4:45
Speaker 1: win twenty thousand if we put down and we have
4:48
Speaker 1: a fantastic amount of games today. We have throws to
4:50
Speaker 1: me this week. I should say we have college TROPBA
4:52
Speaker 1: all the entire week. We have three NFL games on Thanksgiving.
4:55
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving to all our parlay. This past week did
4:58
Speaker 1: not hit. We are still over the season. We went
5:01
Speaker 1: three and four with one game postpone, which is the
5:03
Speaker 1: one that that I had picked Cal and Stanford. I
5:06
Speaker 1: still love Cal when that game eventually gets played December
5:08
Speaker 1: one and then one the one that's um, it's not
5:10
Speaker 1: I guess it's off our board, but but that was
5:13
Speaker 1: the Chiefs game. I like the Chiefs at plus two
5:14
Speaker 1: and a half with the venue change. All right, I'll
5:17
Speaker 1: get into this first. I'm gonna start with some college football.
5:21
Speaker 1: The Pack twelve conference of conference that I know well,
5:23
Speaker 1: that PAULI knows well. I'm going with the Washington State
5:26
Speaker 1: Cougars minus three and a half against the Washington Huskies
5:31
Speaker 1: the Apple Cup on Friday night at eight thirty pm Easter.
5:34
Speaker 1: This is four all the marble. Its Washington State wins
5:36
Speaker 1: this game. They win the Pack twelve North against their arrival,
5:39
Speaker 1: they'll be eleven and one. They'll play Utah again in
5:43
Speaker 1: the Pattel Championship Game, and they have an outside shot
5:45
Speaker 1: to still be in the college football playoff. But there's
5:48
Speaker 1: many reasons why I like this. Gardner Minshew, by the way,
5:50
Speaker 1: through for seven touchdowns on Saturday night against the Arizona
5:53
Speaker 1: car for the Arizona Wildcats had fifty five points at halftime. Uh.
5:58
Speaker 1: He is completing six five of passes, got over four
6:02
Speaker 1: thousand yards UM. He's attempted almost six urn passes. Right.
6:05
Speaker 1: They play that air raid offense. But I'll tell you
6:07
Speaker 1: why I love Washingstead here. It's their defense. Guys. I
6:11
Speaker 1: know that we focus a lot on the air rate,
6:13
Speaker 1: as we should, but how about this. If you have
6:15
Speaker 1: to guess, guys, I'll let you guys guess how many
6:17
Speaker 1: points Washington State is allowing in the fourth quarter of
6:21
Speaker 1: games this year? How many points do you think that is? Blackjack?
6:24
Speaker 1: What do you think, Paul? What do you think I'm
6:28
Speaker 1: gonna see like nine point something three point two, three
6:31
Speaker 1: point two points a game in the fourth quarter. And
6:33
Speaker 1: this is by the way, with them leading a lot
6:35
Speaker 1: of football games, and you know, just putting backups in
6:38
Speaker 1: and whatnot. You know, there they they allowed like twenty
6:42
Speaker 1: seven points to Oregon in the fourth quarter, but the
6:44
Speaker 1: third quarter, allowed none in the fourth quarter. They played
6:46
Speaker 1: col recently, allowed I think three points in the fourth quarter.
6:49
Speaker 1: They allowed zero points to Aeroson They're up like sixty
6:51
Speaker 1: eight to nothing fourteen in the fourth quarter. Allowed zero
6:55
Speaker 1: points this week to Arizona team they had to score
6:57
Speaker 1: obviously in the fourth quarters. I like them because I
6:59
Speaker 1: think they're defense strangles teams. Plus, lastly, gardnerments to their
7:03
Speaker 1: quarterback in the fourth quarter of football games is like
7:05
Speaker 1: number one. Completions, percentage, touchdowns, big plays first, all this
7:10
Speaker 1: crazy stuff. So give me Washington State minus during a half.
7:14
Speaker 1: I like it. I mean I I do. I think
7:16
Speaker 1: Washington is getting over valued here just because they're Washington
7:19
Speaker 1: and they're having not having this season and they're having. Listen,
7:22
Speaker 1: I played Arizona this week because I thought, uh, someone
7:27
Speaker 1: has them rolling a little bit. And I mean the
7:29
Speaker 1: game was they's quite thirty five points in the second quarter.
7:32
Speaker 1: Washington State, And you're right. I think a lot of
7:34
Speaker 1: people think they have the lead by the way, they
7:37
Speaker 1: have the least rushing yards in the nation. If anybody
7:40
Speaker 1: wants to know that, that's it. But but you're right,
7:43
Speaker 1: their defense is dominating, dominating more than people think. And
7:47
Speaker 1: mins show has been unbelievab. A lot of people don't
7:49
Speaker 1: realize he chose Washington State over Alabama, um or he
7:53
Speaker 1: left Alabama. I mean because you knew he weren't gonna
7:55
Speaker 1: get any plane team kids, the real deal. And I
7:57
Speaker 1: just think now that they are heads and shoulder have
8:01
Speaker 1: proven if they're the best team in the past twelve
8:03
Speaker 1: And I know it's a rivalry and it might stay close,
8:06
Speaker 1: but I just think that they're the best team. You know. Yeah,
8:10
Speaker 1: I'm with you here, Jeff. I think that the Huskies
8:12
Speaker 1: are a team that came into this season obviously with
8:14
Speaker 1: playoff hopes, and once those hopes got dashed, I it's
8:19
Speaker 1: been a different team. I think that they're disappointed. It
8:21
Speaker 1: shows Washington State still has a very outside chance of
8:25
Speaker 1: making it in. But even if they don't, just winning
8:28
Speaker 1: the pack twelve would be a big accomplishment for that team.
8:30
Speaker 1: I like it. You're my friend. All right, let's go
8:34
Speaker 1: Turkey Day, right, we have some action on Turkey Day. Okay.
8:40
Speaker 1: I was just talking a little bit of you know,
8:42
Speaker 1: smack about him, but I'm gonna bet him. Yeah, Matthew
8:44
Speaker 1: Stafford plus three and a half the Detroit Lions at
8:48
Speaker 1: home against the very of the Phony. There's they got
8:53
Speaker 1: one player on defense who is basically winning games single handedly.
8:58
Speaker 1: I know, Travinsky. He he made a couple of really
9:02
Speaker 1: really sketchy throws towards the end of that game that
9:04
Speaker 1: could have been picked. Minnesota could have got back in
9:06
Speaker 1: that game, Cohen. They got these two little guys that
9:09
Speaker 1: are running around the field. I get it, But I
9:12
Speaker 1: think the party is finally gonna be over. And you're
9:14
Speaker 1: getting three and a half points. The line went for
9:16
Speaker 1: two to three and a half. You jump on it
9:18
Speaker 1: right now, and you're getting the Lions at home. Um,
9:21
Speaker 1: I just think it's time for the Bears too. They're
9:25
Speaker 1: gonna come down to Earth. A little bit, and Mitch Robinski,
9:27
Speaker 1: this is this run's gonna okay over here, So I'll
9:30
Speaker 1: take the points in lines at home. I can hear you, PAULI.
9:35
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't like this one bit.
9:37
Speaker 1: I mean this is listen. I was on the Vikings
9:40
Speaker 1: last night. But to say this Bears defense is one
9:43
Speaker 1: guy that that's not accurate. Man. This defense is flying
9:46
Speaker 1: around the field. And you refer to tarikoh And and and
9:49
Speaker 1: Jordan Howard as those two little guys. I mean, their
9:54
Speaker 1: offense has been Listen, it's not great, but it's been
9:58
Speaker 1: it's been capable enough in the Lion I mean ship.
10:01
Speaker 1: The Lions are as up and down the team as
10:03
Speaker 1: you find in the NFL. I mean, you don't know
10:04
Speaker 1: what you're getting weekend and week out. Now they're on
10:07
Speaker 1: a short week against one of the best defenses in football.
10:11
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I this you couldn't find three
10:15
Speaker 1: better games than this, PAULI. This is one of your
10:17
Speaker 1: time three games of the week. I'm telling you that
10:19
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears the phoniest team in the NFL. Really,
10:22
Speaker 1: it's crazy the team in the NFL. We found that
10:26
Speaker 1: out with the Carolina Panthers. They have not played anybody.
10:28
Speaker 1: They have not played anybody. The Bears. They're the phoniest
10:31
Speaker 1: team in the NFL. So now they're gonna go traditional.
10:34
Speaker 1: It's always in Detroit, traditionally on Thanksgiving Day. And I'm
10:38
Speaker 1: gonna get three and a half points. I have to
10:42
Speaker 1: take the three and half points. I'm not laying the
10:43
Speaker 1: three and half points on the on the road with
10:45
Speaker 1: the Bears is this is not not happening. So the
10:48
Speaker 1: first time they met, it was thirty four, the Bears one,
10:51
Speaker 1: and the Lions scored a lot of late points to
10:53
Speaker 1: make that game close. The reason why, I'll give you
10:55
Speaker 1: the reason why actually ride with this one. I know
10:57
Speaker 1: you're not a big fantasy one. Blackjack is Matthew Stafford's
11:02
Speaker 1: really good when it comes to the end of games,
11:04
Speaker 1: like just scoring a touchdown to cover. I think the
11:07
Speaker 1: three and a half that that hooked there is important.
11:09
Speaker 1: This game I don't need. Do you think they win?
11:12
Speaker 1: Out right? Do you think they win? They're gonna win
11:15
Speaker 1: that game. I'm telling you right now. If you look
11:18
Speaker 1: of what the Bears and what they played in the
11:20
Speaker 1: combined record of the opponents they have played, um, okay,
11:25
Speaker 1: prove it to me when they come out they're playing
11:26
Speaker 1: the Lions again four and eight like they're playing they're
11:29
Speaker 1: they're playing anybody. But I will take the three and
11:31
Speaker 1: a half points on the short week on Thanksgiving where
11:35
Speaker 1: it happens every time, and it's it's a game that's
11:37
Speaker 1: a traditional game, and I will take the points at
11:40
Speaker 1: home all day long. All right, I'm inclined to let
11:44
Speaker 1: this one ride. Blackjacks so angry because this can't be
11:48
Speaker 1: one of your three best bets of the week, Paul.
11:50
Speaker 1: We're trying to cash a nine team barlay. You should
11:52
Speaker 1: be taking the three best games. This is not one
11:55
Speaker 1: of the three best games. Well you know what, Blackjack,
11:58
Speaker 1: I took Baltimore before Joe co decided he didn't want
12:01
Speaker 1: to play, and they wanted to science. They wanted to
12:03
Speaker 1: start Tim Tebow times too, Lamar Jackson. So what's your point?
12:10
Speaker 1: My point is I'm sticking to it, and that's it.
12:13
Speaker 1: Lions book it can I get the chain again? Thank you?
12:17
Speaker 1: Christ all right, I'm gonna stick with you if your
12:23
Speaker 1: is the bottom of your mustache singed. I'm annoyed, Paul.
12:27
Speaker 1: I'm annoyed because you know what, I want to cash
12:29
Speaker 1: one of these when Chad's not here so I can
12:30
Speaker 1: rub it in his face. And you're making it really difficult.
12:34
Speaker 1: How about Millman? He like we were we were too
12:37
Speaker 1: and oh and he goes, hey, guys to a know,
12:38
Speaker 1: did anybody play it? Soon as he said to a O,
12:41
Speaker 1: our next team lost like he mushed it. That's what
12:43
Speaker 1: he does, all right. For From my first pick, I'm
12:46
Speaker 1: gonna stick with Thanksgiving football, I'm gonna look at the
12:49
Speaker 1: Redskins and the Cowboys. Cowboys are seven and a half
12:52
Speaker 1: point favorites here and taking the Redskins. This is overvaluing
12:56
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. They're off two wins. Good for them, that's nice.
13:00
Speaker 1: The Redskins obviously lose Alex Smith in a horrific fashion,
13:03
Speaker 1: which I unfortunately predicted on last Friday's episode of the
13:06
Speaker 1: Favorites when I said that I didn't think he'd make
13:08
Speaker 1: it out alive. Um. I think Colt McCoy can be
13:13
Speaker 1: serviceable in a short week here. Uh, seven and a
13:16
Speaker 1: half points is too much. The Redskins do play really
13:19
Speaker 1: solid run defense. I think you're gonna make life hard
13:22
Speaker 1: for Zeke Elliott and Cowboys. I don't think Colt McCoy
13:25
Speaker 1: long term is going to be very good for them.
13:27
Speaker 1: But I think in a short week here against Dallas
13:29
Speaker 1: the first time out, seven and a half points, I'm
13:32
Speaker 1: taking the points. Look as soon as Alex went out,
13:35
Speaker 1: by the way, cold McCoy scored two touchdowns and yeah,
13:37
Speaker 1: and the Redskin's offense had done nothing all game, and
13:39
Speaker 1: part of that was alexwith throwing an interception um in
13:43
Speaker 1: you know, a pick six for a hundred and one
13:45
Speaker 1: yard return. So Cole McCoy has been this offense for
13:48
Speaker 1: a while now. It's an offense that you can get
13:51
Speaker 1: by with an efficient quarterback. It's a lot of points
13:54
Speaker 1: in this game. I don't necessarily trust Dallas's defense. Assume
13:59
Speaker 1: I touched the defense. That's sorry, Dallas's offense. The thing
14:01
Speaker 1: about this too is I think Washington the first game,
14:05
Speaker 1: typically with a new quarterback in there, a decent quarterback,
14:08
Speaker 1: you kind of get a boost. We saw with Brook
14:10
Speaker 1: Osweiler this year. We've seen it around the NFL with
14:13
Speaker 1: a first game. Now, not not not the you know,
14:15
Speaker 1: not the second game, or to your point, not third game,
14:18
Speaker 1: the first game on a short week. I like a
14:21
Speaker 1: lot of points here. Uh, seems rather ridiculous to have
14:23
Speaker 1: all these points on the Cowboys. All right, my next pick,
14:26
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay on Thursday. We have We'll do all
14:28
Speaker 1: three of these games right here. Atlanta plus thirteen in
14:32
Speaker 1: New Orleans. That's what that line is is. Oh boy,
14:36
Speaker 1: it's crazy. Look look at the history of this series. Okay,
14:40
Speaker 1: it's been a six point game, a ten point game,
14:42
Speaker 1: at three point game, a six point game, one game
14:44
Speaker 1: that's thirteen points, then three points, ten points. It's this
14:48
Speaker 1: is a series where the games are close. It doesn't
14:51
Speaker 1: matter how good or bad these teams have been. These
14:54
Speaker 1: teams know each other like the back of their hand.
14:56
Speaker 1: They're both inside on a short week. I just they're team.
15:00
Speaker 1: Points to me is absolutely outrageous. I know the Saints
15:02
Speaker 1: are playing really high right now and it's tough to
15:04
Speaker 1: to bet against them, but it feels like way way
15:08
Speaker 1: too many points too in any football game, let alone
15:12
Speaker 1: division rivals on a short week in the game that
15:14
Speaker 1: is inside. So it does help Atlanta as well. Um,
15:18
Speaker 1: I know the season seems like it's over, but again
15:20
Speaker 1: the same with the point about the Cowboys and the Redskins.
15:23
Speaker 1: It's a division game, man. These teams hate each other.
15:25
Speaker 1: They're gonna want to play hard. They're donna want to
15:27
Speaker 1: score a lot of points. I think thirteen points is
15:29
Speaker 1: way too many points. You might want to take this,
15:33
Speaker 1: Black Jacks. I'm jaded with Matt Ryan and some new
15:36
Speaker 1: and Julio Jones and all those weapons, and they went
15:39
Speaker 1: over seven in the red zone yesterday, So take this one. Yeah,
15:42
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, if you're basing this off of yesterday's performances,
15:46
Speaker 1: you'd say Jeff's outside of his mind, But I think
15:50
Speaker 1: he's right. Um, you know, this is a divisional game.
15:53
Speaker 1: These games tend to be closer games. It is a
15:57
Speaker 1: short week again, which factors into it. Also, I think
16:00
Speaker 1: that being at home for a holiday game can sometimes
16:03
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a distraction, right because you've
16:06
Speaker 1: got family, You've got a lot of stuff going on.
16:08
Speaker 1: The Falcons are on the road. It's more of a
16:10
Speaker 1: of a standard environment for Atlanta. Thirteen points is just
16:15
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I can't play points against the team that's
16:19
Speaker 1: got Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley and Matt Ryan Paul
16:23
Speaker 1: leaduca's favorite NFC South quarterback. I can't do it. I'm
16:26
Speaker 1: I'm good with this, Jeff. Yeah, I just I just
16:30
Speaker 1: I know it's tough to bet the Falcons, like, you're right,
16:34
Speaker 1: Paul after this, but I just thirty This would be
16:37
Speaker 1: a monumental I mean, this is it's a lot of points,
16:39
Speaker 1: all right, PAULI your second pick, buddy, y're up. I
16:43
Speaker 1: don't even know if I want to take my second
16:45
Speaker 1: pick after paul Is. PAULI is is hot today. Michigan
16:53
Speaker 1: Wolverine by a D eight over. I cannot take that,
16:58
Speaker 1: I would say, guys, I can't take the Meyer winning
17:00
Speaker 1: all these games I had in Maryland. I can't believe.
17:04
Speaker 1: Why are these coaches? I I know they're going for two,
17:07
Speaker 1: they're going for the way and they should just kick
17:08
Speaker 1: the extra point. Ohio State is not the same team.
17:13
Speaker 1: They're passing teams. They cannot run the football. Michigan was
17:17
Speaker 1: looking forward. Um, they just squeaked by Indiana, although they
17:20
Speaker 1: did stretched out there towards the end. But I I
17:23
Speaker 1: literally been waiting for this game. I am They're punching it,
17:26
Speaker 1: I swear. I just the Wolverines are such a better
17:30
Speaker 1: team than Ohio States. And the fact that they put
17:32
Speaker 1: the line only up at three or four excars me
17:34
Speaker 1: a tiny bit. But I'm just undone. I'm done seeing
17:38
Speaker 1: urban Meyer win these games and how they win them too.
17:42
Speaker 1: It's just it's unbelievable how how State came back and
17:45
Speaker 1: was able to tie that game. It's just not happening
17:47
Speaker 1: this week. Michigan is ten times better football team. Yeah,
17:53
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, Paulie, I am with you, and I
17:55
Speaker 1: probably will bet Michigan here. But doesn't this just feel
17:58
Speaker 1: like the spot that i Ohio State crushes Michigan's dreams
18:02
Speaker 1: every single season? Like, doesn't this feel like where Urban
18:05
Speaker 1: Meyer comes out and Jim Harbaugh just can't get over
18:08
Speaker 1: that hump? Like, I'm with you, Michigan is the better
18:11
Speaker 1: team when Maryland puts up and then Perdue puts five
18:17
Speaker 1: yards up on you. It's been week after week. It's
18:19
Speaker 1: like leak after leak. I get it, I get what
18:21
Speaker 1: you're saying, but like, I think, this is just a
18:23
Speaker 1: different team. They just keep leaking and leaking and linking,
18:27
Speaker 1: and they give a big play after they were never
18:29
Speaker 1: in the game. They never had the lead in that
18:31
Speaker 1: game against Maryland, so you know, yeah, until the end,
18:37
Speaker 1: I mean, basically, I know. But Michigan has had some
18:39
Speaker 1: of these games where they struggle. I mean, you know,
18:42
Speaker 1: the game against Indiana last week. That wasn't a great
18:44
Speaker 1: performance by them. We can't understand and hand trying to
18:47
Speaker 1: get a BOI eligible. They got one more game. Now
18:50
Speaker 1: they got perdue at home, so they were trying to
18:52
Speaker 1: fight a little bit. They got one more game, and
18:54
Speaker 1: at Purdue at home they would get boiligible or a
18:56
Speaker 1: couple of games. So I don't know. I just think
19:00
Speaker 1: they such a better team. So here's why I like
19:05
Speaker 1: this pick um. So Michigan is only lying thirteen points
19:10
Speaker 1: a game, right, And I agree with you, by jack woman,
19:13
Speaker 1: It's true right that that in the past horror balls teams,
19:18
Speaker 1: Michigan teams have not risen up to the occasion against
19:20
Speaker 1: Ohio State in Michigan said, however, I think this year
19:22
Speaker 1: is different, and some of these games have been at home.
19:24
Speaker 1: But when they when they were kind of up against
19:27
Speaker 1: the best, they played the best, right, thirty thirteen against Wisconsin,
19:30
Speaker 1: victory at Michigan State the following week wins one to seven.
19:35
Speaker 1: Then they go to Penn State off of bye, and
19:36
Speaker 1: I mean Penn State comes to them after off of bye,
19:38
Speaker 1: they win forty two seven. They're just suffocating teams right now,
19:42
Speaker 1: and Ohio State is a team that feels very dysfunctional.
19:46
Speaker 1: Have you seen urban Meyer on the sidelines after Paget's
19:48
Speaker 1: like he is like bent over on the sidelines and
19:51
Speaker 1: like agony, and he looks in pain all the time.
19:54
Speaker 1: And his teams can't stop anyone on defense. Offensively, well,
19:57
Speaker 1: Haskins has played well. They just don't seem to be
20:01
Speaker 1: in a great rhythm. Yes, they put up points in
20:04
Speaker 1: big chunks of times of Michigan will limit in my opinion,
20:07
Speaker 1: those big chunk plays and first time, by the way,
20:10
Speaker 1: that Ohouse has not been favored in fifty one games,
20:12
Speaker 1: So it's a big occasion in my opinion when they're
20:15
Speaker 1: not favorite. But I do have a little bit of trepidation.
20:18
Speaker 1: I think, Paul, you're right. The line feels a little
20:20
Speaker 1: fishy to me. Um it's kind of where it's sitting
20:23
Speaker 1: right now. But I think this is Michigan's year. I
20:25
Speaker 1: really do. They've overcome the demons this year. They kind
20:28
Speaker 1: of has played hardball. Adding their defense just suffocates Ohio
20:32
Speaker 1: States offense. I should say, do it urban Meyer acts
20:35
Speaker 1: on the sideline. That's where I was acting yesterday. Yeah.
20:39
Speaker 1: I think urban Meyer maybe getting close to having another
20:42
Speaker 1: health issue. Or needing to spend time with this family. Oh,
20:45
Speaker 1: this is it. This is I think there's because if
20:47
Speaker 1: they don't, if they don't go ahead and try to
20:49
Speaker 1: stag themselves like a Luka Fickle or Matt Campbell, now,
20:52
Speaker 1: he that they'll be gone somewhere else next year. And
20:54
Speaker 1: I think that Ohio State's not gonna want to do that.
20:56
Speaker 1: I think Urban it seems like he's at the end. Um.
20:59
Speaker 1: I just their defense is so bad, so bad, and
21:02
Speaker 1: Michigan's offensive line is playing well right now. I like.
21:06
Speaker 1: I like this, But all right, block Jack, I believe
21:08
Speaker 1: it's your turn, Buddy Schwartzy. Before we get to our
21:11
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Speaker 1: hood dot com. Yeah, brother, I'm sticking with college football.
22:53
Speaker 1: I'm going to UH Saturday afternoon. Obviously, Rivalry weekend in
22:58
Speaker 1: college football. We got a lot of Insta eight games
23:00
Speaker 1: going on, and I'm gonna take a look at the
23:02
Speaker 1: tar Heel State. We've got NC State visiting U n C.
23:05
Speaker 1: I am taking the wolf Pack minus six against the
23:08
Speaker 1: tar Heels. I think this number should be bigger. Man.
23:12
Speaker 1: I mean NC State six and three on the year, uh,
23:15
Speaker 1: two of those losses to Syracusan Clemson, two very good teams.
23:20
Speaker 1: Um U, NC has been a mess. They've been a
23:22
Speaker 1: mess all season. I mean this team has not been
23:24
Speaker 1: able to get anything going that you look at them
23:28
Speaker 1: and they have just They've been atrocious this year. Man,
23:31
Speaker 1: And I don't care that the game is in Chapel Hill.
23:34
Speaker 1: Six points. To me, this game should be at least ten.
23:37
Speaker 1: I'm I'm laying the six with the wolf Pack. The
23:41
Speaker 1: wolf Pack have been That's how the Clemson game. I
23:44
Speaker 1: think I've been a pretty solid team. They have. They
23:46
Speaker 1: have Finley obviously a quarterback I believe is that name Finley?
23:49
Speaker 1: The quarterback who's who's a pro prospect? UNC is bad.
23:52
Speaker 1: I mean their coach is gonna get fired most likely.
23:54
Speaker 1: They've been They're young and injured. Doesn't matter to me,
23:57
Speaker 1: um I'm I'm good with this, Paul, I like, I mean,
24:03
Speaker 1: I I do. I U n c's they got a
24:08
Speaker 1: really inconsistent young quarterback. They're young team all you know,
24:12
Speaker 1: their whole team and not Carolina State got bowled last week,
24:16
Speaker 1: but they're they're pretty solid team. Um. And then get
24:19
Speaker 1: to seven wins and that'd be a nice little a
24:22
Speaker 1: year from them and get them to a nice little
24:23
Speaker 1: ball game. Sometimes when you're like you got to win,
24:27
Speaker 1: you would know more sports. You like at the end
24:29
Speaker 1: of the year, like you never played on that college
24:32
Speaker 1: teams like bad team and you're like two and eight,
24:35
Speaker 1: Like in the last game of the year, you would
24:36
Speaker 1: just go, yeah, well you do you just want to
24:39
Speaker 1: go I'm yes, you just want to go home. That's accurate,
24:43
Speaker 1: and especially when your coach is getting it fired, like
24:45
Speaker 1: it's just like, U, um, all right, I got I
24:49
Speaker 1: got one more pick as we as we barreled down
24:50
Speaker 1: to the last picks. There are so many plays here
24:52
Speaker 1: that I want to make. A lot of them are
24:54
Speaker 1: super squared and I don't care. Like Alabama's gonna destroy Albert.
24:57
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet that game. It's too many, too
24:59
Speaker 1: many points. Memphis, by the way, Friday night when that
25:01
Speaker 1: line post they are going to destroy Houston. Houston's without
25:05
Speaker 1: their quarterback. That was going to be one of my players.
25:09
Speaker 1: It's posted now. Okay, if you find the line somewhere,
25:16
Speaker 1: then please on Action Network app it is it is
25:18
Speaker 1: not showing that has been posted. Um, I'm gonna go
25:22
Speaker 1: here with the Oklahoma Sooners plus one in Morgantown. I
25:28
Speaker 1: guess West Virginia. I just this year man West Virginia
25:33
Speaker 1: outside of outside of the game against Texas has been
25:37
Speaker 1: really bad in the second half of football games, like
25:38
Speaker 1: atrociously bad and the second half of football games. Their
25:41
Speaker 1: season was basically just ended um on Saturday by Oklahoma State.
25:48
Speaker 1: And again it ended because they were awful in the
25:51
Speaker 1: second half of a football game. Right. They had ten
25:54
Speaker 1: points total in the second half of this game. You
25:56
Speaker 1: look at the game before that against TCU, Yeah, they
25:58
Speaker 1: had a little bit more in that game is the
26:00
Speaker 1: first half. The actually scored more in the second half,
26:02
Speaker 1: which is very rare of them. In the Texas game
26:05
Speaker 1: as well, only fifteen points in the second half after
26:08
Speaker 1: scoring in the first half. I can go down the
26:11
Speaker 1: list right at Iowa State zero points in the second half.
26:14
Speaker 1: They played Kansas, Right, they only scored. They scored less
26:18
Speaker 1: points the second half, then they scored the first half.
26:20
Speaker 1: There's not a good second half football team. Um seven
26:23
Speaker 1: points on the road against Texas Tech, Right, I mean
26:25
Speaker 1: just going down the list and not very good in
26:27
Speaker 1: the second half of games. On the flip side, I
26:29
Speaker 1: think Oklahoma has an offensive line that might be one
26:32
Speaker 1: of the best in the country this year. They put
26:34
Speaker 1: up points. They mall you. Their defense is very suspect.
26:37
Speaker 1: I very much worry about them. But I don't mean
26:39
Speaker 1: Oklahoma assuming I don't mean West Virginia will be able
26:42
Speaker 1: to stop them at all. West Virginia's problem on defense,
26:44
Speaker 1: and they're they're in the bottom maybe bottom third or
26:48
Speaker 1: even probably worse. So I think they were hundred and
26:50
Speaker 1: twelve coming to this weekend is against the past. They
26:53
Speaker 1: cannot guard wide receivers, they cannot stop the pass. So
26:57
Speaker 1: give me Oklahoma to win this game out basically outright,
27:00
Speaker 1: I guess Once Virginia to me a barnburner. I mean,
27:05
Speaker 1: this is a good game. This is a tough one,
27:10
Speaker 1: black check. What do you thing? It's hard for me, Paul,
27:12
Speaker 1: because I've been so high on the Mountaineers this year
27:15
Speaker 1: I love what Will Greer's done there, But um, this
27:19
Speaker 1: isn't a game West Virginia wins. I mean, this just
27:21
Speaker 1: isn't a game they win. They've stumbled a couple of
27:25
Speaker 1: times now this year, and really, I mean they could
27:28
Speaker 1: have had a shot at a playoff birth and they've
27:31
Speaker 1: They've shot themselves in the foot twice. And now you're
27:34
Speaker 1: gonna give Oklahoma a chance to win this game? Go
27:37
Speaker 1: in win the big twelves do what they do every
27:39
Speaker 1: single year. I think that's how this plays out. So yeah,
27:42
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma gets it done. Can we ask, can
27:45
Speaker 1: we answer? What is Diana holders and doing with that hair?
27:49
Speaker 1: What is that look West Virginia chic? Yeah? Yeah, it's Trumpish.
28:01
Speaker 1: He doesn't care. That's the best part. He just doesn't
28:03
Speaker 1: care what Memphis is minus seven and a half at Houston,
28:10
Speaker 1: And I'll book it for y'all. Let me bet this
28:13
Speaker 1: right now, seriously favored by seven and a half only
28:16
Speaker 1: I don't know if you should be booking bets on
28:18
Speaker 1: the air. No, I'm saying book it, like and can
28:21
Speaker 1: I get a teaching? It's my turn? Thank you? And
28:25
Speaker 1: I'm I'm with Jeff on this. I was waiting for
28:27
Speaker 1: the line to get up. You know, SMU and Memphis
28:31
Speaker 1: something that play this same kind of game, and they
28:33
Speaker 1: played a nip and tuck battle game, which a lot do.
28:36
Speaker 1: I thought I was gonna be high scoring any over
28:38
Speaker 1: there games like seventy something, and it woul end up
28:40
Speaker 1: being like twenty eight. It was low scoring game, sixteen
28:43
Speaker 1: or so. But SMU put up over five seventy something
28:46
Speaker 1: yards of offense on Houston. Memphis can run all day.
28:49
Speaker 1: Houston cannot stop the run. And the best part about
28:53
Speaker 1: this is Houston just blasted it to lane team, so
28:55
Speaker 1: we'll look at even better. And so they hang up
28:58
Speaker 1: the dreaded seven and a half line that you don't
29:00
Speaker 1: want to punch. And I'm with Jeff here that I
29:04
Speaker 1: was gonna play. You know, this is gonna be one
29:05
Speaker 1: of men picks. I I just I think Memphis is
29:08
Speaker 1: the real deal seven for their solid team, but they're
29:11
Speaker 1: the one of the best Russian teams in the Nations.
29:13
Speaker 1: It was the reason why I have somewhat played Navy
29:17
Speaker 1: last week um against Tulsa is that you know, Navy
29:22
Speaker 1: in Memphis are up there in rushing and Tulsa was bad,
29:25
Speaker 1: so that that was my angle there, and I just
29:27
Speaker 1: think they do run all over Houston, Memphis averaging six
29:33
Speaker 1: uh three five yards to carry that's good for third
29:36
Speaker 1: in the country. I think Houston's out there start. Their
29:39
Speaker 1: star quarterback has played well this season. They lost him, yes,
29:44
Speaker 1: and I think that Oliver might come back saying he's
29:47
Speaker 1: not going to play, though they're saying he might. They
29:49
Speaker 1: might lose him for the Bowl. Yeah, I know that.
29:53
Speaker 1: I think there are people in his life that don't
29:55
Speaker 1: want him to play. But I think he because they
29:57
Speaker 1: wanted for the draft, right of course, No, I get it.
30:00
Speaker 1: I'm I'm just saying that I think he he wants
30:02
Speaker 1: to play. We'll see if he um wins out in
30:05
Speaker 1: the end. I think so. I think Memphis here at home,
30:06
Speaker 1: they played actually fantastic at home this year. If this
30:09
Speaker 1: is on the road, I feel differently. But this game
30:11
Speaker 1: being at home, um, really, I I cannot love this
30:15
Speaker 1: game anyway. Did you find the line? I can't. I'm
30:19
Speaker 1: trying to find it on multiple things. If it's up
30:23
Speaker 1: to it's not on the app. You don't have it
30:24
Speaker 1: on around No, I get a special apt he wants
30:31
Speaker 1: to have a special because it's not on If you
30:33
Speaker 1: if you have it, then we're playing it. So it's
30:36
Speaker 1: not my action. App It's just like, guy, I have
30:38
Speaker 1: the que of the engine to this place. You guys
30:40
Speaker 1: don't have fun. Fine, fine with me, buddy. If it's
30:43
Speaker 1: if it's out there somewhere, it's out there somewhere. I'm
30:45
Speaker 1: good with that, all right. Um, black Jack finishes out, buddy.
30:51
Speaker 1: All right, Jeff, I am going back to the NFL slate.
30:54
Speaker 1: I'm going to Sunday afternoon and I'm looking north to
30:59
Speaker 1: buff Alone, New York. The Bills hosting the Jaguars, taking
31:04
Speaker 1: the Jaguars minus three and a half. Let's not forget,
31:08
Speaker 1: just because they didn't play last week that the Buffalo
31:10
Speaker 1: Bills are the worst team in football. They may have
31:14
Speaker 1: gotten a win off of the Jets, ill prepared, Matt
31:17
Speaker 1: Barkley came in, had the game of his life. Whatever,
31:21
Speaker 1: don't care. The Jaguars, with four net back healthy, are
31:25
Speaker 1: going to obliterate and hurt the Buffalo Bills physically, mentally
31:30
Speaker 1: and emotionally. Lay the three and a half of the Jags.
31:34
Speaker 1: I saw this line and absolutely love it. Um. I
31:38
Speaker 1: agree with you here with with what Barkley did. But
31:40
Speaker 1: here's the thing. The Jaguars. Even though they lost that game,
31:43
Speaker 1: their defense on Sunday played really well, Like their defense
31:45
Speaker 1: played what we expect them to play. One thing I
31:47
Speaker 1: love doing with with Buffalo games, by the way, I
31:50
Speaker 1: take the team total under. It's like one of my
31:52
Speaker 1: favorite best to play every week. I think I've hit
31:54
Speaker 1: like from four and one doing that this year. Like
31:56
Speaker 1: the Barkley game was. I agree with you, just like
31:58
Speaker 1: we're just test Like we're pick Cote McCoy against the
32:02
Speaker 1: Redskins Matt Barkley. Bof the first game guys start, they
32:06
Speaker 1: tend to really focus in and do a great job.
32:08
Speaker 1: The coaches get really creative with game planning. That's that's
32:11
Speaker 1: out the window. Now give me Jacksonville. I like this play. Yes,
32:15
Speaker 1: a bull play, um to play the Bolds, but against
32:19
Speaker 1: the Bills, the bull play you play Jacksonville against anything.
32:22
Speaker 1: Those two teams together, um would be like just two
32:25
Speaker 1: ugly people dating. That's just it. Let's not forget these
32:30
Speaker 1: two teams met in a playoff game, right, playoff game.
32:35
Speaker 1: That's crazy. The only argument I have with you is
32:36
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals might be worse than the Bills. No, no,
32:41
Speaker 1: there's no one, absolutely not. It's not close. It's not close.
32:47
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills are the worst team in football. I'll
32:51
Speaker 1: give you that. I'll give you that, but the talent
32:53
Speaker 1: on the field is not It's not close. I don't
32:55
Speaker 1: think it's close either. I think the Bills eat off
32:58
Speaker 1: of buy. I don't trust them at all. All right, guys,
33:00
Speaker 1: nine team parlay. It's so, it's a wacky nine team parlay.
33:04
Speaker 1: Let let's go over Washington State minus three and a
33:07
Speaker 1: half against Washington that's on Friday night. I also have
33:11
Speaker 1: Atlanta plus thirteen against New Orleans that is on Thanksgiving.
33:15
Speaker 1: It's the last game on Thanksgiving. I'll be just stuffed
33:17
Speaker 1: full of Cajun deep fried turkey. Can't wait to smell
33:21
Speaker 1: just like a smell it now, the peanut oil with
33:24
Speaker 1: the skin. Oh my god. I have Oklahoma plus one
33:28
Speaker 1: against West Virginia. I think they win that game outright, PAULI.
33:31
Speaker 1: You have Detroit Lions Thursday plus three and a half.
33:34
Speaker 1: You have Michigan minus four in the Big House against
33:38
Speaker 1: Ohio State. This I think they finally get this, get
33:40
Speaker 1: this win. Memphis minus seven a half against Houston starting
33:44
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback, Blackjack, we love when you fill in
33:47
Speaker 1: Buddy Washington plus seven and a half on Thursday night, UH,
33:52
Speaker 1: the traditional game in Dallas on Thanksgiving. NC State minus
33:56
Speaker 1: six at U n C. We know U n C
33:58
Speaker 1: two and eight. They're ready to go home and pack
34:00
Speaker 1: it up. And lastly Jacksonville minus three and a half
34:03
Speaker 1: at Buffalo on Sunday. All right, everyone, thank you for
34:07
Speaker 1: listening to the Favorites. We have shows every Monday, Wednesday
34:10
Speaker 1: and Friday. Check out our website Action network dot com.
34:14
Speaker 1: If you bet our parlay, share your betting slip hashtag
34:17
Speaker 1: Favorites Parlay on social and tag at Action Network HQ.
34:21
Speaker 1: You can win two dollars as well with us black
34:25
Speaker 1: Jack Paula Duca, thank you for joining me as usual.
34:28
Speaker 1: See you guys Wednesday when Chad talks to Scooch. So
34:31
Speaker 1: next time