Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Full Show Podcast: 20 September 2024

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Full Show Podcast: 20 September 2024 · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

0:01
Speaker 1: The issues, the interviews and the inside Ryan Bridge new
0:08
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four on the early edition with Smith City,
0:12
Speaker 1: New Zealand's furniture bands and a player store news Dogs.
0:15
Speaker 2: It'd be good morning this six after five. Welcome to
0:17
Speaker 2: your Friday morning. Could our mortgagees be getting a seventy
0:21
Speaker 2: five basis point Carton or the OACR by Christmas? We'll
0:24
Speaker 2: look at that. Just before six this morning, Doughtie al
0:26
Speaker 2: Fayed's dad Muhammad is accused of rape by who and how?
0:31
Speaker 2: This is all at Harold's. Apparently the former All Blacks
0:34
Speaker 2: captain Ian Kirkpatrick is with us ahead of tomorrow's game
0:38
Speaker 2: and jury trials the judges, which one are you more
0:43
Speaker 2: likely to get off under? It's sonata bit we because
0:49
Speaker 2: we speaking of a barrister. In a couple of minutes,
0:52
Speaker 2: it is seven up to five.
0:55
Speaker 3: The agenda.
0:56
Speaker 2: Israel's carried out a new wave of attacks against his
0:59
Speaker 2: villa target in Lebanon, killing at least thirty seven people.
1:02
Speaker 2: Also flying warplanes over Beirute the capitol, all caught on
1:07
Speaker 2: CNN as someone was doing a live cross hell is
1:13
Speaker 2: Reli air plane overhead. Okay Eleni, there's an Israeli fighter
1:19
Speaker 2: jet flying dropping flares. His son ISRAELA this is the
1:24
Speaker 2: haz Buller leader has spoken. He says that Israel has
1:27
Speaker 2: crossed all the red lines over the pager and walkie
1:30
Speaker 2: talkie attacks as before, what's happened overnight, So we'll have
1:34
Speaker 2: to wait and see what happens there. The cooks Strait
1:36
Speaker 2: still cooks bluebridges. Connie mar A fairy lost power overnight,
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Speaker 2: drifted for two hours, just a drift on the cook
1:44
Speaker 2: straight and eighty eight people on board. Will have more
1:46
Speaker 2: on that soon. A new Washington Post poll out has
1:49
Speaker 2: Trump and Harris in a statistical tie. In the King
1:52
Speaker 2: of the Swings, Pennsylvania. Harris is getting hammered there by
1:55
Speaker 2: oil rigged workers for flip flopping on fracking.
1:59
Speaker 4: Do you believe No, I believe she's out there saying
2:01
Speaker 4: whatever she can to make people, you know, try to
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Speaker 4: swing her away so.
2:06
Speaker 2: That she can try to get presidency.
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Speaker 5: The settlement around this whole region is nobody believes that.
2:11
Speaker 2: I don't believe anybody in that administration. The walkie talkies
2:15
Speaker 2: that blew up in Lebanon, well, turns out they were
2:21
Speaker 2: made by a Japanese company who says we had nothing
2:24
Speaker 2: to do with that. They were exported to the Middle
2:26
Speaker 2: East between two thousand and four and twenty fourteen and
2:28
Speaker 2: were discontinued ten years ago. They reckon they must have
2:31
Speaker 2: been booby traps. Eight after five on.
2:34
Speaker 3: Your radio and online on iHeartRadio early edition with Ryan
2:39
Speaker 3: Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture Bids and a
2:42
Speaker 3: playing store.
2:43
Speaker 2: US Talk said be so, if you're just joining us,
2:45
Speaker 2: good morning. It's Friday. And the Connie Mara, this is
2:48
Speaker 2: a Blue Bridge ferry blacked out and drifted for two hours.
2:52
Speaker 2: And they said, oh, it's okay because it's not drifting
2:54
Speaker 2: towards show, it's drifting out to the ocean. Well cold
2:58
Speaker 2: comfort for those on board. I would have thought it
2:59
Speaker 2: was a freight trip. So only eighty eight people on board.
3:03
Speaker 2: But they issued a statement eleven fifty nine pm this
3:05
Speaker 2: is Maritime New Zealand saying the Blue Bridge ferry Connie
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Speaker 2: Marra has lost power and the cook straight three point
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Speaker 2: seven kilometers south of Sinclair Head. Whether in sea conditions
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Speaker 2: moderate at the time it is drifting. Then at one
3:18
Speaker 2: thirty am there's another update. The tugboats are there, so
3:22
Speaker 2: that's good. You'd be thinking if you were the inter islander,
3:25
Speaker 2: you'd be thinking, oh, thank god, it's not us, wouldn't
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Speaker 2: you if you've been serious, if you know, if you've
3:29
Speaker 2: been real about it, because boy have they had their troubles,
3:32
Speaker 2: the out of Teddy around a ground in June. If
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Speaker 2: you're on board, because I think they're still tugging it
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Speaker 2: back into the harbor. So if you're on board, text
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Speaker 2: me nine two ninety two. We'd love to hear what
3:43
Speaker 2: they what happened and what they told you at the time.
3:46
Speaker 2: Just gone ten minutes after five Ryan Bridge. It took
3:50
Speaker 2: a minute. It took a minute. But stocks are down. Sorry,
3:54
Speaker 2: stocks are up, I should say. This is the market
3:56
Speaker 2: reacting to the Fed's double whammy rate cut yesterday. So
4:00
Speaker 2: they've rallied overnight, the Nasdak climbing more than two percent,
4:03
Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred adding a percent, which
4:06
Speaker 2: is good. They are reacting positively to the news. The
4:09
Speaker 2: other central banks a Bank of England they held steady
4:12
Speaker 2: at five percent. They've already started cutting like us, so
4:14
Speaker 2: there's no reaction to be had. South Africa they have
4:18
Speaker 2: the first and only so far actually to react to
4:21
Speaker 2: the FEDS cup they've lowered their key rate from eight
4:25
Speaker 2: point twenty five percent to eight percent. That was a
4:28
Speaker 2: fifteen year higher for them. In South Africa, Norway unchanged,
4:32
Speaker 2: Taiwan held rates. Turkey they've kept their benchmark rate at
4:37
Speaker 2: fifty percent, which is meeting expectations because they're battling hyperinflation
4:42
Speaker 2: over there. We're going to talk jury trials this rejudges next.
4:46
Speaker 2: It is eleven after five on your Friday morning.
4:56
Speaker 3: Ryan Bridge new for twenty twenty four on early edition
5:00
Speaker 3: with Smith City, New Zealand's furniture beds and a playing
5:03
Speaker 3: store used.
5:04
Speaker 2: Dog Zidby thirteen after five, there's a group called White
5:07
Speaker 2: Dudes for Harris who are supporting Kamala Harris, including Jeff
5:11
Speaker 2: Bridges and Mark Ruffalo, the actors, and they are putting
5:14
Speaker 2: ten million dollars into ads for swing states. Have a listen, hey,
5:18
Speaker 2: waite dudes.
5:19
Speaker 4: So I think we're all pretty sick of hearing how
5:21
Speaker 4: much we suck. Every time you go online it's the
5:23
Speaker 4: same story where the problem and yeah, some white dudes
5:27
Speaker 4: are Trump and all his magabuddies rut there making it worse,
5:31
Speaker 4: shouting nonsense in their stupid red hats and acting like
5:35
Speaker 4: they speak for us when they don't.
5:36
Speaker 2: Does that make anyone else cringe? And what happened to
5:39
Speaker 2: the good old days when actors and musicians would just
5:42
Speaker 2: you know, sing and act ray and bridge. The government
5:46
Speaker 2: wants to reduce the number of jury trials to address
5:48
Speaker 2: backlogs in the court system. So to do this, to
5:51
Speaker 2: get a jury trial at the moment, you must be
5:53
Speaker 2: charged with an offense which carries a maximum penalty of
5:55
Speaker 2: two years or more in prison. They want to up
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Speaker 2: that two, three or four years, the being that fewer
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Speaker 2: people will have the option of a jury trial and
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Speaker 2: will speed the whole thing up. Philip Morgan is Casey
6:06
Speaker 2: is a barrister. He's with us this morning. Philip, good morning,
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Speaker 2: Good morning you thank you for being here. Do you
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Speaker 2: think this is going to work? I have my doubt.
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Speaker 6: I meanly, I approad anything to try and to produce
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Speaker 6: the backlog and the courts, But I question the number
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Speaker 6: of jury trials that will drop merely because the threshold
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Speaker 6: of two years in prison unt or more has changed
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Speaker 6: to three years of prisonment or more, or even four
6:40
Speaker 6: years imprisonment or more. That's because I think that the
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Speaker 6: number of ury trials which proceed to trial for which
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Speaker 6: the most serious offense in the Crown charge notice is
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Speaker 6: an offense of lible to term of imprisonment for two
7:01
Speaker 6: or three years or more. I think that the number
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Speaker 6: of such cases is very small.
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Speaker 2: Okay, what is the hit rate? Guilty v? Not guilty?
7:11
Speaker 2: Jury verse judge? You know, what do you advise your clients?
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Speaker 6: There isn't an answer to rate, And what I tend
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Speaker 6: to advise my clients is that there are advantages and
7:26
Speaker 6: disadvantages in acting either judge alone or judge and jury,
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Speaker 6: and they need to make a decision based on a
7:36
Speaker 6: series of criteria. These days, it's fair to say that
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Speaker 6: there's no real advantage to a defendant in deciding to
7:50
Speaker 6: go judge alone compared to a gingury. So it is
7:59
Speaker 6: certainly in terms of your initial election, where do you
8:03
Speaker 6: ultimately stay and have it with the election for trial
8:07
Speaker 6: by jury or change it back to judge alone. You
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Speaker 6: know that will vary from case to case a well, and.
8:16
Speaker 2: You can get some benefits by doing that, can't you?
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Speaker 2: If you pick judge alone, do you have to do
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Speaker 2: judge alone?
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Speaker 6: Ordinarily, yes, it's difficult to persuade a court once you've
8:30
Speaker 6: elected judge alone or you've not made an election of
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Speaker 6: trial by jury to be able to change this to
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Speaker 6: judge alone.
8:38
Speaker 2: And that's part of the problem, isn't it, Because that's
8:40
Speaker 2: why everyone goes, well, I'll do jury and then I
8:42
Speaker 2: can always flip to judge alone later. Yeah, yeah, I agree,
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Speaker 2: and draws the pro whole process out, which deflects the purpose.
8:51
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, all right, Hey, thanks very much for your time.
8:53
Speaker 2: That's Philip Morgan case with us. He's say barrister talking
8:56
Speaker 2: there about the government's plans to try and I am
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Speaker 2: an applaud for doing something I guess try and reduce
9:03
Speaker 2: the backlog in our court system, because, as they say,
9:07
Speaker 2: justice delayed is justice denied. Seventeen minutes after five, news
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Speaker 2: Talk said be Ian Kirkpatrick.
9:11
Speaker 3: Next the news you need this morning and the in
9:14
Speaker 3: depth analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and Fifth City,
9:18
Speaker 3: New Zealand's furniture beds and a playing store.
9:21
Speaker 2: News Talk said, be really interesting story out of Sweden
9:23
Speaker 2: this morning. We'll get to it after the news at
9:25
Speaker 2: five point thirty. You know Greta Thunburg, she was the
9:28
Speaker 2: catalyst for getting a tax on flying introduced. Something has
9:32
Speaker 2: happened to that tax. I'll tell you about it after
9:34
Speaker 2: five thirty. Right now, the All Blacks are facing a
9:36
Speaker 2: big text to test this weekend as the first match
9:39
Speaker 2: in the Bledderslow Cup gets underway against the Wallabyes in Sydney.
9:42
Speaker 2: It's been almost two weeks since the back to back
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Speaker 2: losses against South Africa, so what's going wrong and do
9:47
Speaker 2: they have time to fix it all? Of course Australia
9:50
Speaker 2: is not looking that great themselves, are they. Ian Kirkpatrick
9:52
Speaker 2: is the former All Blacks captain. Ian, who do you
9:56
Speaker 2: think is going to win?
9:57
Speaker 7: You can, you can say what you like about the
10:00
Speaker 7: previous games, but this is just a different one altogether.
10:04
Speaker 7: And so if they're All Blacks can start like they
10:06
Speaker 7: did against the swoon Box and Joeburt, I think we've
10:10
Speaker 7: got you know, we got a good chance, but you know,
10:13
Speaker 7: might take half the game to sort of wear them
10:16
Speaker 7: down or get on top of them. Who knows, you know,
10:18
Speaker 7: it's just a you know, this game now is about
10:22
Speaker 7: it's about physicality and so the team that's up on
10:28
Speaker 7: or we'll say up for it on the day, yeah,
10:31
Speaker 7: they're the ones that will come out. So it's sort
10:33
Speaker 7: of you know, it's yeah, there's I say fifty to fifty,
10:37
Speaker 7: but we like to think it might be better than that.
10:39
Speaker 7: But the point you start predicting too much is on
10:44
Speaker 7: most cases are pretty wrong.
10:47
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad we've got you on the line. And
10:52
Speaker 2: how do you rate raise us so far? How's he doing?
10:55
Speaker 7: Oh, look, he's had a you know, he's got the
10:58
Speaker 7: newest team with those guys that were tired after the
11:01
Speaker 7: World Cup, and those guys are there for a long time,
11:05
Speaker 7: so you know, there was a pretty good team bonding
11:09
Speaker 7: in that team and this one's you know, a new
11:13
Speaker 7: new era just about. So yeah, it's it was wasn't
11:18
Speaker 7: always going to be easy, not going over to sturg
11:21
Speaker 7: for two in a row there. I mean, that's that's
11:24
Speaker 7: a pretty big call. So you know, I wouldn't I
11:27
Speaker 7: wouldn't judge raises. You know, if it's so far, it's
11:31
Speaker 7: too early yet. What these guys are. You know, they
11:35
Speaker 7: will settle into a pretty good, you know, pretty good team.
11:38
Speaker 7: I think that, you know, the teams, I don't think
11:40
Speaker 7: you'd picked a better team than this, I would have thought.
11:44
Speaker 7: So it's really how they come out on the day
11:47
Speaker 7: and how the opposition sort of play against them. We
11:50
Speaker 7: don't you know, they don't know, they're trying to work
11:52
Speaker 7: out each other what they might be doing or what
11:55
Speaker 7: they could do, but it doesn't always work out that
11:58
Speaker 7: way either. So it's it's you know, what they're going
12:00
Speaker 7: to play with in front of them. That's a sort
12:03
Speaker 7: of a modern sort of cliche.
12:07
Speaker 2: In summer, you would say you're positive, cautiously optimistic about
12:12
Speaker 2: the state of rugby and New Zealand. You think, give
12:14
Speaker 2: it some time, let them better, and they've got the
12:16
Speaker 2: right team, the coach will get there and eventually we'll
12:19
Speaker 2: get one over South Africa.
12:21
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think so, you know, I think you know,
12:24
Speaker 7: we're in New Zealand. If you look at NPC and
12:27
Speaker 7: Super Rugby, you know, the teams want to play an
12:30
Speaker 7: open game. I don't. It's not you know, I think
12:33
Speaker 7: there could be a better game to play than this.
12:36
Speaker 7: The rules and such that. It's combative. There's no space anymore,
12:41
Speaker 7: and it's all about taking it up and trying to
12:43
Speaker 7: get over the advantage line. You know with Savage was
12:47
Speaker 7: there big men. It's sort of about about size, which
12:50
Speaker 7: is not what the game is really all about really,
12:53
Speaker 7: to be honest. It's about running into space like we
12:57
Speaker 7: did in you know, Post ninety six, and.
13:02
Speaker 2: That was the n Kirkpatrick, former All Blacks captain with
13:05
Speaker 2: US twenty three minutes after five. That game you can
13:07
Speaker 2: hear on Newstalalk, said b Tomorrow, Brian Bread. So it's
13:12
Speaker 2: interesting these Wall Streets, well they're called darlings of Wall
13:15
Speaker 2: Street when they all pile on and have a bit
13:17
Speaker 2: of a love affair with companies. The latest is clean
13:21
Speaker 2: jet fuel, so this will mean that you can fly
13:24
Speaker 2: without the guilt, not that anyone actually feels guilty when
13:27
Speaker 2: they go flying anyway. Have you ever sat there thinking, oh, gosh,
13:29
Speaker 2: I must think about the planet. No, you're just thinking
13:31
Speaker 2: about where you're going anyway. So the latest company is
13:34
Speaker 2: called twelve and they've managed to raise six hundred and
13:37
Speaker 2: forty five million dollars from backers. This is private equity.
13:40
Speaker 2: Alaska Airlines has put money in with them too. Their
13:43
Speaker 2: value is now billion dollars and basically what it is,
13:46
Speaker 2: and there's about six or seven companies like this, startup
13:49
Speaker 2: companies like this. It's synthetic fuel that they're creating, so
13:53
Speaker 2: they're using chemicals to make jet fuel rather than fossil fuels.
13:58
Speaker 2: It's a bit like I suppose it's a bit like
14:01
Speaker 2: artificial sweetness instead of you know, a stevia instead of
14:04
Speaker 2: a sugar. It's supposedly not going to make you fat,
14:07
Speaker 2: not going to burn the atmosphere and warm the planet.
14:12
Speaker 2: So anyway, they have managed to raise for themselves six
14:14
Speaker 2: hundred and forty five million dollars in a capital raise
14:17
Speaker 2: and they are not the only one either. Twenty four
14:19
Speaker 2: minutes after five, news Talk said be more on Mount
14:23
Speaker 2: Rupehu and why we don't need to be worried about
14:25
Speaker 2: that coming away shortly the early.
14:27
Speaker 3: Edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by News Talks
14:31
Speaker 3: at me.
14:32
Speaker 2: I have not seen Christopher Luxen this tetchy and brassed
14:36
Speaker 2: off before the freaking target? Can we get that again, Leo?
14:43
Speaker 2: The freaking targets? He says, it's the freaking targets. He
14:46
Speaker 2: was answering a question about the National gang List. The
14:49
Speaker 2: cops have been sanitizing the list, hygienically cleaning the list, spraying,
14:53
Speaker 2: wiping the list. It apparently is to remove people who
14:57
Speaker 2: are dead who obviously shouldn't be on the list, and
15:00
Speaker 2: people who have said goodbye to thug life already. The
15:02
Speaker 2: reason he's worked is up is he keeps getting asked
15:05
Speaker 2: about the targets, they're off track and he's being peppered
15:09
Speaker 2: or assaulted, depending on how you look at it. With
15:10
Speaker 2: questions violent crime victimizations up not down, and this morning
15:15
Speaker 2: in the Herald, beneficiary numbers projected up not down. The
15:19
Speaker 2: question for the government and all of us is whether
15:22
Speaker 2: the targets are worth it. Politically for Luxen, they're clearly
15:26
Speaker 2: causing some frustration. Hence the fracking targets comment. It's the
15:31
Speaker 2: political cost that he is enduring and is it worth it?
15:35
Speaker 2: The constant updates and the inquisition are they worth the
15:39
Speaker 2: end result? And the answer, of course is yes. Ask
15:43
Speaker 2: anyone who is successful how they got there, and they
15:46
Speaker 2: will usually say small, intentional, planned steps in a particular direction.
15:52
Speaker 2: Things don't just happen in life. You have to make
15:54
Speaker 2: them happen, and you have to plan to make them happen.
15:58
Speaker 2: We all have targets in our own lives. We do
16:01
Speaker 2: you want to be in ten years? We do you
16:02
Speaker 2: want to be in five years? I want to run
16:04
Speaker 2: a marathon by the time I'm forty. I want to
16:06
Speaker 2: retire at fifty five. Whatever it is. You don't set
16:09
Speaker 2: the target. If you don't set a target, it'll likely
16:12
Speaker 2: never happen, and that's what happened with the last lot.
16:15
Speaker 2: They got rid of a whole bunch of them. Remember,
16:17
Speaker 2: make no mistake, these targets will be the making or
16:20
Speaker 2: breaking of lux and the key issue that could unseat
16:23
Speaker 2: him in twenty twenty nine. He has set the goals.
16:26
Speaker 2: Now he needs to meet them and perhaps just perhaps
16:31
Speaker 2: be a little less touchy when he's asked about them
16:34
Speaker 2: along the way. A freaking target. Ryan Bridge, twenty eight
16:39
Speaker 2: minutes after five. It must be annoying. I've always thought,
16:41
Speaker 2: because I used to be in the press gallery in
16:43
Speaker 2: Parliament and be in those scrums, and I often thought,
16:47
Speaker 2: we must be so annoying because you just badger, badger, badger, constant, constant, constant.
16:53
Speaker 2: And it's because you're normally because you're trying to get
16:55
Speaker 2: a genuine answer to a question, and it can be
16:58
Speaker 2: frustrating on both sides. But I've always looking at them
17:00
Speaker 2: thinking sometimes I do feel sorry for them, not Lucks
17:04
Speaker 2: in particular, but just sometimes politicians. I think there's twenty
17:09
Speaker 2: of us and one of you. You know, anyway, it
17:12
Speaker 2: is coming up to news at half five, and then
17:15
Speaker 2: I will tell you about why Grisha Grisha Thunberg is
17:18
Speaker 2: upset in Sweden this morning.
17:22
Speaker 7: Four labor or hanging out the past.
17:30
Speaker 3: International correspondence with ins and Eye Insurance, peace of mind
17:34
Speaker 3: for New Zealand business.
17:36
Speaker 2: You taught to be just got one quarter to six now.
17:38
Speaker 2: Gavin Gray is our UK and Europe correspondent. Five women
17:42
Speaker 2: say that they've been raped by the former Herold's boss,
17:45
Speaker 2: Muhammed al Fayed, of course, father of Dodie al Fayed.
17:48
Speaker 8: Gavin, Yes, indeed, run so. Muhammed al Fayed was a
17:52
Speaker 8: very colorful figure. He died last year at the age
17:55
Speaker 8: of ninety four. Colorful figure because for many years he
17:58
Speaker 8: ran the luxury London apart and store Harold's, became sort
18:02
Speaker 8: of a bit of a TV personality as well, ingratiated
18:06
Speaker 8: himself with the royal family, and of course, as you said,
18:09
Speaker 8: his son later died in a car crash, having been
18:13
Speaker 8: partnered alongside Diana, the Princess of Wales back in nineteen
18:16
Speaker 8: ninety seven. Indeed, the new generation beginning to know the
18:19
Speaker 8: Alphaeds through the series of The Crown. But it is
18:22
Speaker 8: tonight Muhammad al Faired and his relationship with his former
18:27
Speaker 8: female ex employees. They are claiming that the billionaire raped
18:32
Speaker 8: them or at least sexually assaulted them. Now twenty have
18:36
Speaker 8: come forward in total, and they say that Harold's not
18:40
Speaker 8: only failed to intervene, but they actually helped cover up
18:43
Speaker 8: abuse allegations when al Faired was owning it and in
18:47
Speaker 8: charge of it. Harold's current owners say they're utterly apport
18:50
Speaker 8: by the allegations and that his victims had been jailed
18:52
Speaker 8: for what the store sincerely apologized and the fired faced
18:58
Speaker 8: sexual assault claims while he was alive. Ryan that these
19:01
Speaker 8: allegations now are much much more serious and of an
19:04
Speaker 8: unprecedented scale.
19:05
Speaker 2: Absolutely, he did. The UK prisoners that were released as
19:08
Speaker 2: part of the overcrowding deal to reduce the numbers in
19:11
Speaker 2: the prisons, what's happened with their bracelets?
19:15
Speaker 8: Yeah, what a very very good question, Ryan. Many of
19:17
Speaker 8: them were supposed to be wearing these tags, electronic tags
19:21
Speaker 8: so that the authorities can keep an on them, they
19:24
Speaker 8: know where they are and sometimes they have to attend
19:26
Speaker 8: a police station as well. Of course, some one seven
19:30
Speaker 8: hundred prisoners were let out early in England and Wales
19:33
Speaker 8: last week because of overcrowding in prisons. Now we learn
19:37
Speaker 8: that some of them were released, but weren't given electronic
19:41
Speaker 8: tagging devices despite it being a condition of their release.
19:45
Speaker 8: The Ministry Justice is blaming the contractor and saying there's
19:50
Speaker 8: been a shortage of the tag. So not only is
19:52
Speaker 8: there a shortened prison spaces, but they were still allowed
19:55
Speaker 8: out early and then we learned as a shortage of
19:57
Speaker 8: the tags. The contractor says is to everything you can
20:01
Speaker 8: to rectify this. The government is threating some sort of
20:04
Speaker 8: compensation deal if the situation isn't sorted out either. But
20:09
Speaker 8: there are some in the justice industry, as it were,
20:12
Speaker 8: in the justice sector who are saying this is a
20:15
Speaker 8: disaster waiting to happen, allowing out these people without at tag.
20:19
Speaker 8: And incidentally, if you wondered, the Chief Inspector Probation believes
20:23
Speaker 8: about one in three of those released early will re offend.
20:29
Speaker 2: Ken that is the dumbest thing I've heard this morning, Kevin,
20:32
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for that, Kevin Gray, who's our
20:35
Speaker 2: UK and Europe correspondent. Imagine getting you know, or line
20:39
Speaker 2: them all up, the doors open and you say, oh,
20:41
Speaker 2: we've run out of tag, so you can go anyway.
20:44
Speaker 2: Who may they call? Twelve away from six Ryan Bridge
20:48
Speaker 2: bitter than expected, but still bad. That seems to be
20:51
Speaker 2: the vert on our GDP data out yesterday, dowe point
20:53
Speaker 2: two percent for the June quarter. Will that hinder our
20:56
Speaker 2: chances of more and maybe bigger rate cuts this year
20:59
Speaker 2: before Christmas? Nick Tuughley is asb's two economist.
21:02
Speaker 5: Nick, good morning, Good morning.
21:04
Speaker 2: What do you reckon? Well, what does it affect what
21:07
Speaker 2: you've seen yesterday our chances of cuts this year?
21:12
Speaker 5: No, it doesn't. The Reserve Bank will be cutting anyway.
21:16
Speaker 5: The Reserve Bank was expecting a slightly weakened number, but
21:18
Speaker 5: it's not going to go fuel. Let's keep rates where
21:21
Speaker 5: they are now. It's of the view that it's got
21:23
Speaker 5: inflation under control. And the thing is that we need
21:26
Speaker 5: to see the cash rate get from over five percent
21:29
Speaker 5: down to something a bit over three percent, which is
21:31
Speaker 5: a more neutral level, reasonably quickly. So they'll keep cutting rates.
21:35
Speaker 2: How soon do you reckon? We'll get to that three percent.
21:40
Speaker 5: If they cut at a quarter percent every single meeting.
21:43
Speaker 5: They've only got seven meetings a year, then we're talking
21:45
Speaker 5: about say about this time next year, round around October
21:50
Speaker 5: next year now, because that's a long time to have
21:53
Speaker 5: rates essentially still with the foot on the brake, there
21:56
Speaker 5: is that possibility that we do get a larger cut,
22:00
Speaker 5: say later this year or early next year. But it's
22:03
Speaker 5: really going to depend on whether inflation starts to look
22:06
Speaker 5: like it's falling a loter than what the Reserve Bank's
22:10
Speaker 5: been anticipating that.
22:11
Speaker 2: Potential for a fifty basis point cut. How does the
22:15
Speaker 2: summer break, because obviously they go away for some of them,
22:17
Speaker 2: not back to February. How does that affect the potential
22:19
Speaker 2: for it to be either this side or the other
22:21
Speaker 2: side of Christmas.
22:23
Speaker 5: Well, it does mean that you have this chance that
22:25
Speaker 5: you do get a bigger cut, and that's what financial
22:28
Speaker 5: markets have been building it, and financial markets have been
22:31
Speaker 5: building in a very strong chance that you get large
22:35
Speaker 5: cuts it either or both of those meeting. It's got
22:39
Speaker 5: a huge amount built in over that period. So look
22:43
Speaker 5: at it's certainly a risk. It's going to depend on
22:45
Speaker 5: what the data is looking like, particularly some of the
22:47
Speaker 5: labor market data that we get an early November ahead
22:50
Speaker 5: of the Reserve banks last decision of the year, and
22:53
Speaker 5: also the inflation figures that it seems before that last
22:56
Speaker 5: decision of the year.
22:57
Speaker 2: Immigration. How worried are you about because obviously it props
23:00
Speaker 2: up our GDP. How worried are you about potential for
23:03
Speaker 2: net zero migration to New Zealand next year?
23:07
Speaker 5: Well, from an inflation point of view, it's probably potentially
23:12
Speaker 5: a bit helpful, and we don't need the people in
23:16
Speaker 5: the workforce like we did a couple of years where
23:18
Speaker 5: we sort of went from sort of like fam to
23:20
Speaker 5: feast and now we do face some pretty weak need
23:23
Speaker 5: immigration next year. But look, the thing about net immigration
23:27
Speaker 5: is it's about the pace and the type of people
23:30
Speaker 5: that we are getting, and as well and looking over
23:33
Speaker 5: longer term, having migration that's not going in such big
23:37
Speaker 5: swims so you can cope better from the infrastructure is
23:39
Speaker 5: really important, and also who's coming and who's going out.
23:42
Speaker 5: It's really important as well from the sorts of skills
23:44
Speaker 5: that we need.
23:45
Speaker 2: All Right, Nick, thank you very much for that update.
23:47
Speaker 2: Great TV on the show is always Nick Tufley, Chief
23:49
Speaker 2: economist at ASB. Just gone nine minutes away from.
23:52
Speaker 3: Sex Bryan Bridge.
24:00
Speaker 2: So you know you're a young person, you want to
24:03
Speaker 2: go on a joy ride, steal a car, do something bad,
24:07
Speaker 2: maybe do a ram raid, something like that. There's a
24:09
Speaker 2: teenager in New York who's just elevated this to a
24:11
Speaker 2: whole new level and stolen a subway train. She and
24:16
Speaker 2: her friend She's seventeen years old, from Queen's, New York.
24:20
Speaker 2: They accused of entering and operating the train, then causing
24:23
Speaker 2: a collision, so basically a joy ride and then a
24:26
Speaker 2: crash in a subway train. The best part of the story.
24:31
Speaker 2: These surveillance images released by police showed one suspect dressed
24:34
Speaker 2: fully in pink, including a shower cap, and a second
24:37
Speaker 2: person wearing blue blue still on the run. Pinky has
24:41
Speaker 2: been caught. It is eight to.
24:43
Speaker 9: Six on the program. In fact, you do too. I
24:54
Speaker 9: look through the double glazing at Oldly.
24:56
Speaker 10: Oh there, and they need what you would loosely call
24:59
Speaker 10: god idance, Yeah, as to as to as to what's
25:03
Speaker 10: acceptable and what's not acceptable. And I'll put this out
25:05
Speaker 10: there now, seeing you if you've made this so public,
25:08
Speaker 10: little Sammy, Little Sammy said the in fact was was
25:12
Speaker 10: it not? The first thing he said to me this morning.
25:14
Speaker 2: Was like an excited puppy exactly.
25:17
Speaker 10: And what I like to do is start the day
25:19
Speaker 10: on a positive note. And so we and so the
25:21
Speaker 10: first thing he goes is, hey, Helen Clark's available, So
25:25
Speaker 10: that immediately puts me in a bad mood, and I said,
25:28
Speaker 10: really is she how exciting? He goes, now, what time
25:31
Speaker 10: would you like her? And I go, well, not today,
25:33
Speaker 10: I said, let's I did say, let's get her on
25:35
Speaker 10: the show and see what sort of text feedback we'll
25:38
Speaker 10: get on that.
25:38
Speaker 2: It's already come in because she was in the news.
25:43
Speaker 9: I haven't said, I cannot see the screen. Correct me
25:46
Speaker 9: if I'm wrong.
25:46
Speaker 10: Has the text said? Does the text say something like
25:49
Speaker 10: why would you bother pulling it?
25:51
Speaker 9: Exactly?
25:51
Speaker 2: And where is a doern? She did too?
25:54
Speaker 9: Exactly?
25:55
Speaker 10: So you'll be pleased to know that we do not
25:57
Speaker 10: have if you next two, we do not have Helling
26:00
Speaker 10: Clark on the program.
26:02
Speaker 9: I thought, you know, I know what.
26:04
Speaker 10: I said to Sammy. I said, that'll come up in
26:06
Speaker 10: your annual review, and it's not going to go well.
26:08
Speaker 2: For you because she I mean, she is a former
26:10
Speaker 2: Prime Minister of New Zealand. She was head of the UNDP.
26:13
Speaker 10: Sokay, you spend some time with Sammy after the show,
26:18
Speaker 10: because clearly you were closed out and what he wanted
26:20
Speaker 10: to replace was the interview on a vaccine that potentially
26:25
Speaker 10: is one going to revolutionized New Zealand economy, if not
26:28
Speaker 10: the global economy, if not the climate change, if not
26:30
Speaker 10: the entire rural sector.
26:33
Speaker 2: I said, sure, Sam, it could have been a story
26:35
Speaker 2: about someone stubbing their toe and you would have sold
26:37
Speaker 2: it just like this.
26:40
Speaker 9: If it was a stubbing the toe story, he might
26:41
Speaker 9: have had a point. But he doesn't have a point.
26:43
Speaker 10: So the good news is Will Jordan is on Helen
26:46
Speaker 10: Clark isn't all right?
26:48
Speaker 2: Everyone, have a great weekend. I will see you on Monday.
27:08
Speaker 3: On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Early Edition with
27:13
Speaker 3: Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture Beds and
27:16
Speaker 3: a playing Store.
27:17
Speaker 2: News Talk said be five to six. Lots of people say, actually,
27:21
Speaker 2: leave Lester Levy alone. He is doing the job of
27:25
Speaker 2: Commissioner of Health New Zealand but also doing a couple
27:27
Speaker 2: of days a week lecturing at a university and says,
27:30
Speaker 2: I have done that before. He's doing seventy hours a
27:33
Speaker 2: week in his house role. What more can you ask
27:35
Speaker 2: of him? Mike Cosking is in the studio, He's with
27:37
Speaker 2: you next night. Tend to agree.
27:38
Speaker 9: I've done the numbers.
27:39
Speaker 10: So if you say, he said ten to twelve hours
27:42
Speaker 10: a day, so let's give him ten and you do
27:45
Speaker 10: that for a seventy hour week, you do. I can't
27:47
Speaker 10: remember it was three thy three hundred and something hours
27:49
Speaker 10: in the year. That rolls out at ninety five for
27:52
Speaker 10: three hundred and twenty thousand dollars that rolls out at
27:54
Speaker 10: ninety five dollars now.
27:56
Speaker 2: Also, he's not running Health New Zealand. That's Auntie Arper's job.
28:00
Speaker 2: He's just basically a.
28:01
Speaker 10: Direct He's a consultant who's looking at what's going on
28:04
Speaker 10: how to fix it. So if you're putting in that
28:05
Speaker 10: many hours for that amount of money at ninety five
28:08
Speaker 10: dollars now because the media always get angsty about that stuff,
28:11
Speaker 10: you know, I mean ninety five dollars now, my head
28:13
Speaker 10: dressed charges more than that.
28:15
Speaker 9: So and this is a guy running the whole publicize.
28:17
Speaker 2: Also, he's on three twenty, but Tory's on one hundred
28:20
Speaker 2: and ninety.
28:20
Speaker 9: Exit but she can't make ends meet. You've got to
28:22
Speaker 9: sell a car to board thing.
28:24
Speaker 2: See you tomorrow. It's beautiful, says it. Oh.
28:30
Speaker 3: For more from News Talks B listen live on air
28:33
Speaker 3: or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
28:35
Speaker 3: go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio