Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - ⚠️Banks Warn of September Pivot + Stock Market News 02 September 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - ⚠️Banks Warn of September Pivot + Stock Market News 02 September 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs probably the most respected investor in the bank out there just sent a note to their institutional investors that warns of what's happening in September and yes, we're entering September.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to give you the full note, but I'll also explain it to you.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get the full note here, it is on the screen here and you can download that at FelixFriendsorg.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Slash flow, because it's about fund flow, which is what I was always talking about.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: It's like where is the money going?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: And they'll walk you through all of this stuff Lots of chart, lots of explanations.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: I'll take up the most important, imperative stuff and I'll break it down for you in this video.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But, as always, check the original materials, because that's always where you get the most information, and if you're that well-minded or you actually want to learn more, then I'll give you an opportunity in a second to do that as well.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: But first of all, sentiment is actually looking pretty good.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by that?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: I mean that there is something called the global news pulse.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: It's this whitish line here that's going up, and it just means that sentiment around the market and stocks is very good.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: There is very little fear, there's very little concern and worry, and that's definitely a good thing.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So that typically means, as that continues to go higher, that the stock market, which is the blue line there's a blue, yes continues to go higher as well.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So so far, no real disaster there.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: And then we've got this signal, and this is signal number two, and you might want to write this down.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: You might want to take a screenshot of this, because this is like gold dust the VIX, which is the fear index, has fallen four months in a row and if you look at historic data, the S&P was up 100% of the time nine months later right, which is this column here and on average, it was up about 10%, which is pretty good.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, where we are right now very little fear, pretty good momentum.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: You'd be thinking, well, let's buy the freaking dip.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So what's all the concern all about?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Well, if you want to actually learn what to buy and what to sell because that's ultimately what this is about right, actually learning how to take profits and not letting the gains slip away, because I think that's what most people should be worried about right now, I'm going to run a actually, I've got a 15-minute masterclass for you which breaks that down, and it's the rules that I learned from my Wall Street mentors.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: It's free of charge down, and it's the rules that I learned from my Wall Street mentors it's free of charge.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Let's take you 15 minutes probably less than this video and you can get there at felixfriendsorg slash get free, and it's also.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: So bugger off and go and watch that instead, because it'll be more educational and you learn skills Skills you keep forever versus news and what Goldman Sachs just said you'll keep for, like you know, maybe September, and then it'll expire the information.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So, if you're going to go and bugger off, write BO in the comments, and all the people who are tuning in and not making it this far in the video are going to be like, why is everyone writing BO in the chats?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Really weird, smelly people or something.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: And then we've got, of course, some large cats, which is another thing that I'd highly recommend to invest in.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: But no, in all seriousness, goldman Sachs says we see this as the most important flow for sustaining the stock market rally over the long term.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: It continues to show strong momentum.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So what is this flow that they're talking about?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Well, albert explained it to me.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Where's Albert?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Albert is, this is a lot of Albert, right?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: This is our little cat daddy, and what he said to me is Felix, it's simple, it is you and me, the retail investors, who are going to continue to buy stocks, and that line there is retail, the unwashed masses, as in you and me and Albert, and apparently we are continuing to buy ETFs.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: And am I guilty of that?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, I put about half my money every week into ETFs and the other half I trade actively.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Why it keeps everybody happy in my household.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: It's as simple as that.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Really, no real rational logic behind it other than happiness is better than higher returns.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So we do that every week.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: If this continues to go higher, it'll just sustain the market.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So it's not professional investors who are down here and haven't really bought anything at all all year.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It's not even the bond flow, which is also pretty flat.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: It's all on you.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So you know, you know what to do to sustain this, right?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Albert says yeah, he's quite stern about that.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: You guys better keep buying, otherwise you know there'll be hell to pay, right, he's the enforcer around here.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And then, all right, let's look at some of the not so pretty stuff, because this is going to be a balanced thing.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So you get both sides of the information.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Then we can come to a conclusion.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Out of the top 200 insider trades that's CEOs, that's founders, you know management, c-suite people Over the last week, the top 200, zero were buy orders, zero.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Not one decided to buy their own stock and, yeah, I've never really seen anything like it.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: It's pretty extraordinary.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So they're all just like yeah, we're cashing out, we're buying more boats, we're buying more yachts, the cats want extra, I don't know what and staff to massage them.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That's probably true.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: And then we come to the real hard data and again take a screenshot of this, because it's going to go away.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And then we come to the real hard data and again take a screenshot of this, because it's going to go away.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about how September is a terrible month, right, especially Albert.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: And it's true, but it's actually not the first week of September.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Albert's now sitting on my mouse pad.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Very helpful, albert, very helpful.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can still get this pen going.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So the first couple of days are actually typically all right.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: And then from basically 8th onwards so 8th of September onwards, this is historic data, right, this is from 1928 to today.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It's not cherry-picked, it's like 100 years of data.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Well, what happens then?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: We go down a little bit and then we enter the sort of sideways consolidation phase, which is again not so bad.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So you might get halfway through September and go well, september was fine, wasn't it?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: It was all good.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I went all in Some crypto meme coin.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: And what happens then?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Well, second half of September, sort of 19th onwards, not so pretty right Tends to drop quite a lot.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's got something to do with tax dates or something in the US, but that's historically what happens.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Does that mean it has to happen?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: No, but because it's historically happened and everyone's looking at this freaking chart, like everybody, including Goldman Sachs and all their big institutional clients, and it's literally in the.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: There it is, it's in the document.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: You see it's in the document.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: You see it's in the document.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It gives you the full breakdown.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: There it becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to happen, but there's a pretty decent likelihood right Now.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: At the same time I think this is me the dips are going to be shallow right, because I think we're going to keep buying them.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I think we've got enough good news to sustain us tax cuts and tariffs, who are not as bad as we thought, and we've got AI and all that kind of stuff, so I think it'd be as bad.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: But when the S&P 500 closes August at an all-time high which it has done the index has closed red for the month of September 14 out of 18 times.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So you're like, oh my God, run for the world, right.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: But the average loss was minus 1.6%.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but my portfolio goes up and down close to a percentage point on any given day.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So minus 1.6% over the month of September isn't really like a kick in the you know what.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: So I think we can stomach it.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I think we've been through a lot worse and I think we can handle it, but you need to just understand that it'll help you perhaps buy some things on the pullbacks.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Now, what about our algo funds?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Remember those?
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Remember the algo funds?
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: The sort of dumb computers who just buy stuff because they have to.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Are they going to come to the rescue?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Nope, they are 100% all in Now.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean they have to sell, so it isn't like a real negative, but it means they're not buying.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So we haven't got that support because they've literally maxed out.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: They're all in Palantir or something like that.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, so, logically, if the market does go down significantly, well, these guys have to sell, and that would then make the downside worse, right, which has got something to do with fund flows.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: What are we buying?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: What are we liking?
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm still really enjoying the gold rally.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Here's one of our favorite gold miners.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Since our May entry point, it's now up 118% A very good day on Friday.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I'm still liking the whole uranium play.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I'm probably going to put another video on a different uranium stock.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: That's a bit of a lag out to this one, and there's a lot of other stuff, and I think we have to have this sort of short-term horizon where I think rates are going to come down.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: We don't have to, but that's the way I see life.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to have some opportunities there for things like home builders and interest rate sensitive industries going to have some opportunities there for things like home builders and interest rate sensitive industries.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I think we could see another unloved tech rally all that stuff that's super shorted.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: That could really really kick off if you get that rate cut coming in September, and I intend on taking advantage of that, and then I think there is a chance we might overdo it, and I think there is a chance that maybe come early 2026, things start to turn around or more good news comes out and AI continues to deliver, in which case, you know, we're happy.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So I'm not selling everything, I'm not no cash, I'm not fearful on the sidelines because, as Peter Lynch the great Peter Lynch said, more money has been lost waiting for the crash than actually in market crashes.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So what I'd say to you is learn how the money flow works, how it moves from one sector to the next sector, to the next sector, and that's why you always see me looking at heat maps, because that's what I care about.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: I care about where is the money flowing.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: You know what happens if you know beer and liquor is getting moneyipping, containers are getting money.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Shipping is actually an interesting sector right now.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Well, tesla is losing money.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Where is it going?
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: That's what I want to know, that's what I want to look at, and we can actually predict that with a fair degree of accuracy, and that's really what we do.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And then we go deeper and we think, hey, well, if you think it's going to go into mining, then why not look at the mining stocks and have a look at, well, which are the best set up for mining stocks?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Or what are the best setups for drone stocks?
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Or the best setup for, say, nuclear stocks?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: You know there is a lot of stuff out there that we could potentially invest in and a lot of this had an ugly red Friday, but that doesn't mean that was you know the end of it.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that stuff, there's a link down below phoenixtransitorg.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Get free and just learn.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Literally 15 minutes of your life.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: You learn, you have the knowledge forever, and it's just like a skill.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: It's just like how we get better.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I spent 90 minutes today hitting tennis balls in a really frustrating way because it's not how I normally hit them.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: And was I getting better A little bit?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I still have to do a lot more practicing, but I know if I keep doing that, my joy levels are going to go higher and higher and it's going to be more and more fun.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: That's the same thing with investing.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It's just about putting in the reps, learning the skills, because if you just put in the reps, you never get better.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You're just losing again and again and again and you're just paying all the money to the Mr Market.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: But if you actually learn and then you start implementing that, and you learn, you start implementing that, you get better and better and better and life gets incrementally and massively and exponentially better.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So I wish you a beautiful day and great success.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Take care.