Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bitcoin Year-End Prediction?🔥with Gareth Soloway

Transcript

Bitcoin Year-End Prediction?🔥with Gareth Soloway · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul barare welcome back into tech Path.
• 0:07
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• 0:10
  Speaker 1: looking at getting into crypto for the first time, this
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  Speaker 1: in right now.
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  Speaker 2: And I have to do is click the link down
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: below and get started. All right, let's get into it.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Let's go to a couple of points here, and I
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: want to bring in our guest. And then of course
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: is mister Gareth Soloway coming in trade, coming in from
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: verified of investing.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: But always fun to have you. Thanks for stopping in.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Oh, thank you for having me, Paul. It's great to
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: be here.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: It's been six months since we had you on the show.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Far too long, far too long. Great to be back.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, we're going to get into a lot and
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: part of that is going to be getting into where
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the money is coming from. Money market assets now topping
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: seven trillion for the first time. We also have seen
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit of movement here, increasing by ninety one
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: billion in the last week to the seven trillion market.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: My question to you is is money going in kind
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: of going into these markets so that they can start
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to slide this over into traditional markets SMP or are
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: they ramping up for maybe some of these risk markets.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: What's your opinion.
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I think initially after the elections, we saw
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: this big rally which really encourages retail investors to put
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: more money into the market. So again, I think initially
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: that was the plan. My question is is now that
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: we're starting to see the S and P get a
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: little bit weaker and some fears start to bubble up
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: about inflation, interest rates beginning to push up, are people
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: going to still want to push that into the market,
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: or the interest rates that they're going to get in
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: the money markets are they going to be high enough
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: to keep people on the sidelines and keep that money
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: in money markets. So I think there's a lot new
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: kind of a gray sort of situations developing, whether it's tariffs,
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: whether it's deportations that are now making people say wait
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: a minute, We're already seeing the PPI data uptick just
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: in the last few days here in the last report,
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: is this still going to be a lower inflationary market
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: where our rate's going to stay higher? And are we
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: going to have some trouble with the stock market? And
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: I think people are now rethinking just in the last
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: few days.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, So Warren is, of course Warren Buffett
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: out there saying maybe I'm going to start go ahead
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: and start doing some re entries. Here you can kind
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: of look at his portfolio. I'll zoom in on that
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: for you guys. But he reduced out of Apple, he
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: reduced out of Bank of America, of course, and also
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: out of Serious But he's starting to put money back
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: in the market now, he's actually doing some buys.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: So here's my question.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Has he said, all right, this is where it begins,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start buying some value and building back
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: a portfolio again because he's not a ton of cash.
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, huge amount of cash. And I think what's so
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: interesting is his buy on Domino's Pizza number one. It's
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: a small buy. But the question I have is he
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: is he almost saying that there's a recession coming by
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: getting into Domino's Pizza.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: That's a recession stock that is.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: A recession stock, because again, you know, we're talking five
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: dollar pizzas, seven dollar pizzas, whatever it may be. I mean,
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: these are plays that if people are struggling, they're going
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: to be buying from Dominoes. They're going to be getting
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: food from Dominoes. So I took that to almost be
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: a cautionary signal. He's got all this cash and he
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: needs to or wants to deploy a little bit of it.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: But look at where he's deploying it. It's definitely in
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: recession stocks.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Interesting, I think you'd have to put a little bit
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: more in there for me at least, you know, right,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, it's going to be interesting. I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: want to jump, you want to get on, and I
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: y ahead.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: And just to add something else in there is is
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: Domino's Pizza is a very thin stock. And so I
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: do wonder if it's just the beginning of him starting
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: to buy. Let's watch over the next month or two,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: does he continue to accumulate a position because it's not
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: a stock like Apple or in video where you can
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: just buy, you know, one hundred million dollars day one.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: It's so thin that to not affect the market have
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: to buy very very small, so that'll be something to watch.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, so strategy there to kind of position. Let's get
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: into bitcoin. We'll take a look, and I want to
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and what I want to do with the charts today
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: is get your year end outlook, so think of it
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: by end of December, where you think your price targets
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: are going to be. We'll start with bitcoin, but I
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: want to flip over to a clip by Michael Saylor
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: so you can kind of get a frame.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: We're going to see you into the war on crypto.
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: We're going to see a lot of pro bitcoin sorry,
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: pro business policies, and I think that clearly the SEC
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: will be a big part of it. So what do
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: you think is the biggest threat to Bitcoin's price sting
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: above sixty k? What potentially causes another dive below thirty K? Yeah,
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to sixty k. It's not
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: going to thirty K. I think it's going to go
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: up from here. I'm planning the one hundred K party
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: and I'm thinking it's probably going to be New Year's
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: Eve at my house, So I would be surprised if
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: we don't go through one hundred k in November or December.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: All right, So there you have it.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Sailor's coming in with one hundred k by end of year.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: What says mister Gareth Salaway on that one?
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: So, first off, I've never heard Michael Sailor be bear schever,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: so I think he gave the answer that we all expected.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: Number two is if we take a look at my
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: char here, let's take a look at dive into this.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: So I'm a technical chart trader, right, so I have
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: to see levels break. Now. If we look right here,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: just over the last few days in November, we've seen
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: a resistance trend line hit. And notice how price has stalled.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: So where is this trend line coming from? If we
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: zoom out, if you connect the exact high from early
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty one to the secondary high in twenty twenty one,
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: that line extends out and is now causing resistance. So
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: to be fair, if we start to go sideways and
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: we can break above this line, then I agree with him.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: I think December you likely will see a h hundred
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars bitcoin, but it requires a breakout above this line.
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: As long as this line holds, then you would anticipate
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: what we call a retrace to the scene of the crime,
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: which would be a retrace back down to test the
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: former all time high, at which point you buy with
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: both hands at that level for the next leg up.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: This is a bullish breakout. A retrace would be a
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: buying opportunity. Eventually. I do think it's going over over
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: to one hundred thousand. It's just a matter of is
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: it before the end of the year.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: All right, So when you look at bitcoin right now
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: long term, Gareth and many people have asked about this,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: part of it is the idea of when retail comes
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: in bitcoin. Retail investor demand now hits a fifty two
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: month high. This is a lot of market momentum. Yes,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: of course, we're well above now. Every day is an
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: all time high pretty much when you look at retail
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: and the potential of them going into risk assets. But
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: then you throw in the mix of what is brewing
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: in the traditional macro environment, what could be a stall
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: on interest cuts, what could be a much more sticky inflation.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Where do you put bitcoin, say middle of next year,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: with those kinds of environments in play.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and so that's definitely a tricky one. I generally
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: think it's going to go higher. My only concern for
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: bitcoin is the risk asset market, and again, bitcoin still
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: is somewhat of a risk asset, and so I do
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: worry that if the stock market were to really come
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: down sharply, that would be the one scenario where we
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: could go back to sixty or even a little bit
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: below sixty. But aside from that, then you basically are
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: here at a point where you want to buy pullbacks
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: on bitcoin, and it would not shock me to see
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty to one hundred and fifty thousand
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: by mid year, assuming the stock market does not start
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: to collapse.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: All right, Well, there's a lot there. Obviously.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: The SEC chair is going to be a big part
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: of that Trump's administration on how they're kind of managing
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: certain expectations around the economy. You've got the SEC chair,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: mister Gensler stepping down. You look at Eth and maybe
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of other projects that have been out there
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: under attack from the SEC. How big of a deal
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: is it that you think Gensler stepping down away from
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: the SEC is for crypto just in general?
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Is it?
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: Oh? I think it's huge. I think it's absolutely huge.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: He has been a roadblock to crypto. And it's not
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: that he's just said no, no, no, it's just that
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: he hasn't even given guidance. And I think the crypto
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: markets just want rules to follow, and that's what we
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: need from this new SEC is just a clarity, clarification.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: And again, whether it's Ripple, whether it's all these other ones,
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: give us a framework where we know the rules to
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: play by and we'll play the game. And I think
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: that's what crypto saying here, and it's very very bullish
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: that he's stepping down. I think ultimately it's going to
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: be a positive for crypto overall. And I do think
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: that again, a lot of these coins, as long as
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: there's a true use case, they do go a lot higher.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what would your opinion be if he does get
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Jay Clayton appointed into the SEC. Remember Jake Clayton was
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the guy who started the lawsuit against XRP, against Ripple, right,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: and remember that Jake Clayton. I mean recently he's come
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: out not necessarily definitely not talking pro crypto, pro bitcoin,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: where it could end up in the same boat where
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: we've got all right, yeah, bitcoin and ethereum, but all
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: of these other crypto innovations are not being pushed.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: Forward, we wouldn't be any better than we were with Gensler.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: Right? No, that's true, that's true. That is a risk,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: and I think I think the bitcoin market as well
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: as the crypto market, until we have clarity on that appointment,
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: we may not see as much upside as is possible. Right.
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: I think the market has gained a lot because Gensler's down.
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: We've seen obviously a pro crypto stands from RFK and
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: his involvement with Trump, and Trump's been very douvish towards crypto.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: That's all been the positive. Now we need the next
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: piece the puzzle to come into play.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So let's look at ETH now. And
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: ETH is struggling at around three k right now, pulled
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: back off the thirty three hundred mark, almost thirty four
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: hundred when you look at ETH by end of year, Gareth,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: is this something that you're still bullsh on? Do you
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: feel like we might see a retrace back down?
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: So looking at the chart here, we can see that
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: ETH again. If you look at the lows here and
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: we drag a parallel up. This was the short term
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: high with this high here, so it is backing off
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: from that. What we want to see with ETH is
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: we want to see this trend line here, this high,
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: with this high on a pullback, we want to see
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: essentially twenty nine hundred holds as long as twenty nine
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: hundreds holes. I think it actually has upside, although I
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: will say into year end, I think it's somewhat limited.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: You have this pivot high and then this connector down here.
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: Both of these are around thirty seven to thirty six hundred,
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: So I for me, at least, it seems like ETH
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: may have at least limited upside from here into your end.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: I do think in twenty twenty five, though, if we
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: can break through these highs, we could actually at that
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: point test the highs from twenty twenty one, and that
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: would be your next target. That five thousand dollars price point.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which is a big one.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I think that'll be the key flowing into just some
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: of the strategies that are playing out. Obviously within the
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Trump administration. Everything's kind of pending on this, so we'll
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: see where it's going.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about XRP. You look at XRP, it.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Has now finally come out of this hibernation or so
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to speak, had a pretty nice run, almost sixty percent
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: up in the last week. Many people looking at the
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: SEC chair position, the fact that we had a Trump
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: win a lot of positives for ripple globally bricks playing
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: in the same sandbox. What are your thoughts on XARP.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Where do you like this?
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: Yes, to go on a technical basis here and this
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: is really interesting. XRP may have hit a short term high.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: Now remember this is more short term, so this doesn't
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: say where it's going to be in six months from now.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: But what we can see is you've had this massive
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: move up from about forty nine cents all the way
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: to over ninety cents. But look at what it's starting
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: to hit here. You have this key pivot high here, here,
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: and here, which was the highs basically since twenty twenty
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: two of February. And so in terms of extension, what
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: you'd expect at this point would be a check back,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: meaning that price would likely pull back to this high
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: right here, and then at that point that's where you
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: would get that next leg to the upside. So at
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: least as a trader, and I can only speak from
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: a trader's perspective. That's what I do is I'm looking
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: for a pullback to about seventy five cents and then
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: buy that support level right here for potentially that next
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: leg to the upside. And maybe that jives exactly with
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: what we've been just talking about with getting more clarity.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Maybe that pullback comes as we don't have clarity, but
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: then once we get that clarity, that next leg can
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: start to the upside.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's narratives that are kind of playing out, and
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: you look at you know, this is something we talked
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: about earlier in another show. But Quinn marketkapp added their
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: trading pairs for Ripple USD, so they're stable coin now
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: holding up here. That could be pretty big, especially if
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: we start to see Ripple and stable coins being used
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: by Ripple in some of these ecosystems, which many have
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: been talking about, including even a potential with Cardono, which
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I thought was very crazy.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: But I'm kind of in agreement with you. I think
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: if we do get a pullback, the real.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Question is is that the potential pivot point going forward kind.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Of to this next level.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Solana for a minute. Vanak came on,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: this is Matthew Siegel. He was talking about the odds
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: of a potential Solana ETF trading by the end of
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: next year.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: This would be huge.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: For Solana because I think a lot of people around
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: now recognize Solana almost as an eth you know, comparable.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: In fact, we've talked with many traders who would say
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: it's Bitcoin eight Solana as your top three tokens for consistency.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: ETFs kind of flow with that.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: What is your chart showing us for Solana going into
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the end of the year and then long term?
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so if we take a look at Solana here,
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: first of all, we have a couple levels to watch,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: and we actually haven't hit major resistance yet, so I'm
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: still in the camp. There's a little bit more upside
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: on Solana. If we zoom out on this, we can
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: see that this major high here connected here gives us
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: a price target of around thirty two hundred and thirty five.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: So two hundred and thirty five you start to hit
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: some resistance, and then just above that, at about two
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: sixty we have the twenty twenty one high. So my
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: guess is you may touch either one of these and
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: then you would expect some sort of pullback, and again
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: maybe that pullback comes ahead of the news that eventually
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: triggers the next leg up on Solana here. But again,
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: for me, at least, you actually want to be still long.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I chase it here if you
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: weren't already in I don't know necessarily if it's a
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: chase opportunity just to get a little bit of an
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: additional move up. But I certainly wouldn't you know, I
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be unloading here on Solana just yet. I still
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: think there's a little bit more fuel in the tank here.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Do you like an all time high in the range?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of people pointing at five hundred
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: and up from Solana. Do you feel like that's even
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: in the cards for them? That would be double the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: last market high that would be.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: So I think that it's always a possibility. The key
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: again is do the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: Do we get an unbelievably douvish regulatory body from the SEC?
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Do we get the Trump administration to really kind of
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: just cater and make And this is what Trump has said.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: He says he wants to make the US the crypto
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: hub of the world. If that happens, that absolutely I
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: think that is in play. An ETF would absolutely help
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: that narrative as well drive price sharply up. So the
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: key is here, as we approach these former all time
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: highs on Solana, do we get these secondary factors there
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: to drive that price much much higher? So again it's
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: more of a weight and see. For me, I want
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: to see what comes out in the next couple months
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: from this new administration and then go from there.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Gareth, as a trading tip to our audience, you look
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: at tokens now that are exceeding their.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: All time highs.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: When you get in that kind of scenario, how do you,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: as someone who's a technical trader look at what the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: potential is for a top on this Are you looking
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: at different Fibonacci signals? What is the comparison of how
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: you guys chart something out once he goes into the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: blue water.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's a great question. So a couple things.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: Number one, if Fibonacci extensions are really really helpful in
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: terms of finding what that next level could be. Also,
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: these upsloping trend lines again, you know you look at
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: that one on Bitcoin for instance, it was absolutely amazing here.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: How if we go back to the chart on bitcoin,
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: we can see that again by utilizing the two former
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: all time highs from twenty twenty one, it was able
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: to project out where Bitcoin would at least stall out. Now,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: it doesn't necessarily tell us if this is a top
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: or not, but it tells us to at least expect
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: resistance in this range, which is what's happened to Your
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: prices started to stall out from this big, big move
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: to the upside. Now, if we go through the roof here,
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: and this is actually getting a little bit more advanced,
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: but if we were to take this this would be
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: my next thing to do. Go to your logarithmic chart
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: and go all the way back to maybe the high
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: from twenty and seventeen. And what you can do then
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: is start projecting out where that ultimate cycle high could be.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: You can either connect it through this high or this high.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: But what we do see is that that's really quite
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: a bit higher here. I mean, we're talking in the
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: one seventy seven and if we bring that line up here,
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: it's really over two hundred thousand, and Again those are
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: crazy numbers to most people, but if we're talking about
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: this becoming the digital gold, this gloring in more and
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: more investors. The run rate of only twenty one million coins,
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: you can understand how down the line, at least in
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: the next bull market, there's this chance that we could
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: go to one seventy five to two hundred.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Well, you look at the comparison of gold.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin overtook silver this week, seventeen trillion right now on
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the asset class for gold bitcoin, you know, a paltry
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: less than two trillion, So it's got a ways to
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: run potentially. But if you do get one of those
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: scenarios where you start to see a little bit of
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: a shift, whether it's a strategic reserve, whether it's nation
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: states buying, or something crazy like Trump saying, hey, you know,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: we're going to reward all crypto holders with no taxes
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: on their crypto gains. That would immediately push people, I
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: think into the next level. So that would be one
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: to watch for sure. Let's jump over to Avalanche. Avalanche.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Of course, many people are saying that this token is still.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: A little bit suppressed.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Many people are looking at the forty dollars level as
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: being another significant run. Thirty was one that it had
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: not been able to sustain. Just here recently was able
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to overcome. What are the charts look like for year
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: end on AVAX.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is really interesting here. So just like
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: what we saw on a few of these other ones,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: like on Ripple hitting some resistance up here, we're also
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: seeing that you could see these lows here a trend
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: line through this high that's given us the high in
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: the short term. Having said that, I think again the
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: same sort of thing as you're coming back into support
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: levels high here, these highs right here, these are least
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: in the short term buying opportunities, and should we head
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: up and break out above this little channel high, this
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: trend line, I think you're at least going back to
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: test the forty one and a half level here, so
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: I look for that level to be hit by year end.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: I think that's a very reasonable target based on the
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: explosive move up. You always get consolidation, so you're going
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: to get the pullback. The question is is it a
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: top or is it just a consolidation pullback. I think
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: since we're at such low levels on a lot of
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: these coins, these are pullbacks before another leg up, and
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: I think it takes you to that forty forty one
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: sixty level.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: One of the big buzzes with Avalanche has been the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: gaming ecosystem.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Off the Grid was a huge success.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: This is one of their team members talking about off
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the grad announcing they're a three K attorney that's going
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: to be happening.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: And this is a big.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Deal because what they're competing against is mainstream gaming. Call
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: of Duty is what they're talking about here, That in
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: itself starts to open a up for mainstream awareness, you know,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: because when you start to see, oh wait a minute,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: this is a crypto game, and I can gain certain
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: aspects of digital assets, and now they go kind of
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: research a little bit and boom, you've got Avax right
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there in the crosshair. So this will be one I
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: think that we'll have to pay attention to. But I
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: do like your forty dollars number by year end on Avalanche.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: All right, so Gareth, we're definitely going to get you
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: back in. We want to talk about after the first
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: of the year. I want to see where the markets
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: are trending, because many people are looking at January being
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: a very pivotal point in the S and P. When
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: you look at the S and P five hundred as
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: it is today, right, now, what is your consideration for
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: how the S and P holds up through the end
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: of the year, because we've had what four days of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit of downturn on the S and P.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Are we still on an uptrend here or what are
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: your thoughts?
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so technically we are still on an uptrend, although
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: again this reversal is a little concerning because again we
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: had such a robust rally on the elections. You never
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: want to see a quick drop back down. And again,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: at least we've only retraced about fifty percent of the
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: move so there's still a nice chunk in there from
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: the move up. But it definitely is a concern. And
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: I also wanted to show these trend lines, so I
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: have a couple things here. So number one, here's a
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: trend line, and these two trend lines converged. And notice
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: how here you broke below and then you came back
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: to test and it couldn't get back through that level.
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: So on a technical basis, that's something that makes me,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: you know, basically pick up and stay aware that we
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: might have a little more downside to go into your end.
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: In addition, one of the other factors you're looking for
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: is right now you have a low, higher low, higher low,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: and even here was a higher low. If we were
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: to come down on the S and P and make
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: a lower low, that would be concerning as well. So
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: I'm really focusing on this fifty seven hundred level on
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: the S and P as being unbelievably important to keep
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: the bull market going. If we break below that, now
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: the trend is not higher or lows, but now lower loves,
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: and that's problematic. And then last thing I want to
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: show you guys. This is one of the coolest charts
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: out there, but it also is concerning. If I go
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: to my logarithmic chart of the S and P five hundred,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: and we go back to the nineteen twenty nine high
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: before the Great Depression, and we take a trend line
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: and we connected through the dot com bubble high, and
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: we extend it out look at where we are currently
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: trading right into that level. So the concerning thing is
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: many people have argued that there's an asset bubble in
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: the current markets, right and the question is here, you
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: had an asset bubble in nineteen twenty nine. The Roaring
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: twenties created it, and that happened the dot com bubble
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: was another epic bubble here. Could we be at the
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: beginning or the end of the bubble before that next drawdown?
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: And again, I'm not going to pretend that I know
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: the answer to that. My job is a technician to
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: really look and say, Okay, at least be aware, at
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: least don't keep your head in the sand. Be fully
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: aware that you're into this trend line and look at
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: what happened in the past when we saw it.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Hits Well, listen, I mean that kind of chart that's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: pretty amazing to look at, because if we do see
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: an S and P correction, that is I mean a
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: cataclysmic event style. What you're talking about is a much
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: longer period of a downtrend again, which gets back into
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the amount of cash that the Buffett's been sitting on
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the sideline, the overheated S and P, the overheated to
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: a certain extent, I would say, risk assets. But at
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: the same time, you're also going into a new dynamic,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: and that is a Republican House, Senate and presidency who
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: knows where they're going to be pushing this next four years.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: It is going to be a exciting time coming up,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: for sure.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Garrett, thanks again for stopping in today. We do appreciate
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: your time. We'll definitely get you back on soon.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: All right, thank you so much, Paul. It's been a pleasure.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: Take care, all right.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Good see all right you guys. If you're not in
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the Diamond Circle, get in right now. It's a great
• 23:57
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• 23:59
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• 24:02
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• 24:04
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• 24:06
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• 24:09
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• 24:11
  Speaker 1: you next time right here on Techpath