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The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am
0:17
Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
0:21
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, Mike and
0:23
Speaker 1: padre My BFF professional better Simon Hunter Ella.
0:27
Speaker 2: Simon, Hello, Chad, how are we doing?
0:30
Speaker 1: Getting closer?
0:31
Speaker 3: Brother?
0:31
Speaker 1: And as we speak, as we record, lines are moving
0:37
Speaker 1: and not in the direction we thought they would last week.
0:41
Speaker 1: As we speak, lines are moving in the direction of
0:45
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Last week lines went from one and a
0:47
Speaker 1: half to two. This week, lines are moving from one
0:51
Speaker 1: and a half to one. You're seeing it a bunch
0:53
Speaker 1: of Jersey books. It also happened at a big Vegas book.
0:59
Speaker 1: Very interesting thing that lines are moving in the direction
1:03
Speaker 1: right now of the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad I can
1:08
Speaker 1: get the Chiefs at a cheaper price on the money
1:10
Speaker 1: line or on the number fantastic. Today is our Super
1:15
Speaker 1: Bowl Best Bets episode with our favorite director of research,
1:19
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams is going to join us at the end
1:21
Speaker 1: of the show, as he always does. We'll also bring
1:24
Speaker 1: in Hot Reads specialist in Evan's partner on the Action
1:29
Speaker 1: Network podcast Sunday Version, Brandon Anderson. We will of course
1:35
Speaker 1: discuss our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big Balls, Simon's Biggest Bets.
1:39
Speaker 1: We're gonna play some scoot Roulette, all that jazz bets
1:42
Speaker 1: are rolling in. As I said, lines are moving, decisions
1:45
Speaker 1: need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin
1:48
Speaker 1: Cowhard likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.
1:51
Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
1:55
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
1:57
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
2:01
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars sign up using promo code
2:04
Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars a place to bet for five
2:06
Speaker 1: dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
2:08
Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
2:11
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three
2:14
Speaker 1: sixty five must be twenty one or older and present
2:17
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
2:23
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one
2:27
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
2:29
Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, it's Thursday, last Thursday
2:36
Speaker 1: of the season in which we get to hear how
2:39
Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our conversations. Lines move
2:44
Speaker 1: based on what we say. The pros feel compelled to
2:47
Speaker 1: weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
2:54
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.
2:58
Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody saying, man.
3:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, sharp clalls is only one game.
3:05
Speaker 4: It's it's pretty insane how much it's just so much opinion,
3:09
Speaker 4: so many everyone's got the answers right, especially when you're
3:11
Speaker 4: turning professional betters.
3:13
Speaker 2: They already know the answers on the test.
3:14
Speaker 4: But this week, honestly, we started out it was basically
3:19
Speaker 4: everyone I knew was taking a position on the Chiefs
3:22
Speaker 4: in the under, and a couple of the smarter betters
3:24
Speaker 4: took the Eagles up plus two. And you know, we
3:27
Speaker 4: talked on Tuesday show, I think even Sunday night, Like, Okay,
3:30
Speaker 4: I get why they would take that early number, but
3:32
Speaker 4: I expected most professionals to be on the chief side,
3:35
Speaker 4: and it's.
3:36
Speaker 2: Actually gone the other way. I'm seeing it more that.
3:38
Speaker 4: The public is on the chief side and more professionals
3:41
Speaker 4: are lined up taking the eagle side.
3:42
Speaker 2: I think it is what we talked about, right.
3:43
Speaker 4: It's most guys that do models are going to have
3:45
Speaker 4: the Eagles as the better team across the board.
3:47
Speaker 2: So it's not that shocking.
3:49
Speaker 4: I mean, our review of it is we agree we
3:51
Speaker 4: think the Egles are the better team across the world,
3:53
Speaker 4: but the two most important positions, the coach and the quarterback,
3:56
Speaker 4: the Chiefs do have an advantage there. So yeah, it's
4:00
Speaker 4: it's been pretty wild. Like a lot of the pros,
4:01
Speaker 4: I note.
4:02
Speaker 2: Chad, they've been, you know, taking this eagle side, but it's.
4:06
Speaker 4: Not like they're hammering it heavy, right, It's not like
4:08
Speaker 4: that where they're really taking a standard, because I think
4:11
Speaker 4: most people view it as there's not a ton of
4:13
Speaker 4: value in the number itself. Right, if you like the Eagles,
4:16
Speaker 4: A lot of guys weren't taking the plus one. They
4:17
Speaker 4: were just taking the plus one ten. Now you've seen
4:20
Speaker 4: that that number is gone, right, Most books now were
4:23
Speaker 4: down to plus one oh five. Even flipping a couple
4:25
Speaker 4: of books now are at minus one oh four for
4:28
Speaker 4: the Eagles, So yeah, it's it's interesting to seeing that
4:31
Speaker 4: number move, and obviously that's professional money moving that number.
4:34
Speaker 4: That's not Joe Public moving. And same goes for that under.
4:38
Speaker 4: Like I wanted to give out the under here on
4:39
Speaker 4: the show today, he's still going to do it. We've
4:41
Speaker 4: seen that forty nine and a half just disappear. Like
4:43
Speaker 4: I've been looking all across every book, it's gone totally.
4:46
Speaker 4: At the highest you can get now is forty nine,
4:48
Speaker 4: which is still good value. But when we talked last week,
4:51
Speaker 4: I thought it would go the other way. I was like,
4:52
Speaker 4: hopefully it gets to fifty by the time we do
4:54
Speaker 4: our next show. That's not the case, right, most people
4:57
Speaker 4: that had respected money came in and took the or
5:00
Speaker 4: so as you said, you're right now, it seems like
5:02
Speaker 4: respected money Eagles and the under I think me and
5:06
Speaker 4: you know the deal, right, disrespected money to save money
5:09
Speaker 4: that two weeks ago came in heavy on the bills.
5:12
Speaker 4: The Bills literally went from a minus or plus two
5:15
Speaker 4: dog to a pick them by kickoff against the Chiefs.
5:18
Speaker 4: That number steamed before kickoff, and that's respected professional money.
5:23
Speaker 4: Looks like they're trying to fade Mahomes once again. Chad,
5:25
Speaker 4: So pretty interesting. They're they're taking that stand where I
5:29
Speaker 4: think mean of the same opinion. It's like it's easy money,
5:32
Speaker 4: it's easy living, taking Mahomes and out stressing about it.
5:34
Speaker 4: So I am shocked to see that so much respected
5:37
Speaker 4: money is coming on this eagle side.
5:39
Speaker 1: It just makes no sense to me. It's it's it's
5:43
Speaker 1: just astonishing that someone in this day and age, giving
5:48
Speaker 1: everything we know about Patrick Mahomes and how he performs,
5:52
Speaker 1: everything we know about Andy Reid and how he performs,
5:55
Speaker 1: everything we know about Steve Spagnolo and how he performs.
5:58
Speaker 1: We have we have a very decent sized sample set
6:02
Speaker 1: of data that indicates how these guys perform in high
6:06
Speaker 1: pressure situations when the stakes are the highest, whether it's
6:09
Speaker 1: end of the regular season, to clinch a playoff seed,
6:12
Speaker 1: clinch a first round by, to clinch the number one
6:16
Speaker 1: seed in the AFC, to clinch home field advantage, to
6:19
Speaker 1: clinch a to a trip to the Super Bowl, to
6:22
Speaker 1: clinch a trip to win the Super Bowl. Like Mahomes
6:26
Speaker 1: doesn't lose, He just doesn't lose. Let me, before I
6:31
Speaker 1: bring in Brandon Anderson, let me just read a couple
6:33
Speaker 1: more stats that we talked about last week, but they
6:36
Speaker 1: are worth repeating, if only because this line is moving
6:38
Speaker 1: in his direction. January February, Mahomes have played eighteen games
6:42
Speaker 1: at home r on a nutrient field, sixteen and two
6:45
Speaker 1: straight up his losses Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. We
6:48
Speaker 1: are right now being asked to bet Patrick Mahomes essentially
6:52
Speaker 1: straight up to win this game if you throw. In
6:54
Speaker 1: November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.
6:58
Speaker 1: In just the playoffs. He's been an underdog, are a favorite,
7:01
Speaker 1: under a field goal eight times eight no straight up
7:04
Speaker 1: and against the spread. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth
7:09
Speaker 1: quarter of ot, fourth quarter or overtime in nine total
7:13
Speaker 1: playoff games. He's won six of those games, forced ot
7:17
Speaker 1: in two of those games. Astonishing. Brandon Anderson talk to me,
7:25
Speaker 1: no one, but.
7:26
Speaker 5: No one is offering you action like this. It's the
7:31
Speaker 5: gambling experience on lifetime, and it's my way of saying,
7:35
Speaker 5: I understand men like you.
7:37
Speaker 2: I know what you want, I know what you need.
7:39
Speaker 2: This is where you belong.
7:41
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's really hard to get away from it.
7:43
Speaker 6: Just coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Who
7:46
Speaker 6: do you like to win the game?
7:47
Speaker 1: When?
7:47
Speaker 7: Who do you like to win the game?
7:48
Speaker 6: If it's close late, either Pat has the ball and
7:51
Speaker 6: I like the Chiefs, or Jalen has the ball and
7:54
Speaker 6: I like the Chiefs. And that's the problem is if
7:57
Speaker 6: it's close late, I'm gonna like the Chiefs. Either Jalen
8:01
Speaker 6: Hurts away from home has not been good in the playoffs.
8:04
Speaker 6: Andy Reid on arrest twenty nine and three straight up
8:08
Speaker 6: with thirteen plus days of rest with either Patrin Holmes
8:11
Speaker 6: or Donovan McNabb, Like all the trends line up this way,
8:15
Speaker 6: like it's gonna be billed as Mahomes Versus Hurts, of course,
8:18
Speaker 6: because it's the quarterbacks and it is Mahomes versus Hurts,
8:21
Speaker 6: But we already know what Mahomes is gonna do to me.
8:23
Speaker 6: It's not Mahomes versus Hurts. It's Spags versus Hurts. And
8:26
Speaker 6: that's why I'm on the Chiefs as well, because I
8:29
Speaker 6: just haven't trusted Jalen Hurts down the stretch for this team.
8:33
Speaker 6: I haven't really felt like I trusted him even in
8:34
Speaker 6: this playoff run, and I do trust with an extra
8:37
Speaker 6: week to prep especially that Spags are gonna find some answers.
8:40
Speaker 6: He's gonna dial up some blitzes. Jalen Hurts loves to roll, right,
8:44
Speaker 6: that's gonna be something that I think Spags will be
8:46
Speaker 6: ready for. I think he's gonna mix up the coverages Casey,
8:48
Speaker 6: he plays a lot of man. Hurts is great against man,
8:51
Speaker 6: but not good against zone. I think we're gonna see
8:53
Speaker 6: a lot of kind of mixed hidden coverages. And I
8:56
Speaker 6: just trust even as good as Philly's Dias been, as
9:00
Speaker 6: Pangael has been, I trust any one off setting what
9:04
Speaker 6: we've seen time and time, like this is the mahomes
9:07
Speaker 6: read thing that we've seen, but it's Spags two and
9:09
Speaker 6: it has been this whole way. I know that's something
9:11
Speaker 6: you guys keep talking about as well. And I just
9:13
Speaker 6: think he's kind of the MVP for this game to me,
9:16
Speaker 6: because I don't trust Jalen Hurts against Spags up against
9:19
Speaker 6: Patrick Mahomes.
9:21
Speaker 1: Well, Simon, I got two big questions for you. One,
9:26
Speaker 1: would you like to respond to Brandon's Jalen Hurts insults
9:33
Speaker 1: not trusting Jalen Hurts. I know it's very sensitive topic.
9:37
Speaker 1: I don't even like to I don't like to criticize
9:39
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts anymore because I know it makes everyone in
9:42
Speaker 1: Philadelphia very upset.
9:44
Speaker 4: Well, you just you would talk nonsense chat at least
9:47
Speaker 4: Brandon here's coming with something to latch onto some sense
9:49
Speaker 4: of reason. But I view it as it's a ben
9:52
Speaker 4: don't break from Spags. Like the last time they played
9:54
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl, Hurts through for three j yards
9:56
Speaker 4: had four touchdowns. So yes, does Spags run a great
9:59
Speaker 4: de defense, of course, but he didn't break.
10:02
Speaker 2: That was the key to that game.
10:03
Speaker 4: Like they eventually in the second half made the right
10:05
Speaker 4: adjustments and they won the game because of a punt
10:08
Speaker 4: like they held against Hurtz Sirianty punted. That was the game,
10:12
Speaker 4: Like that was all the Chiefs needed to get it
10:14
Speaker 4: front of that last game the time they played. And
10:16
Speaker 4: that's the type snare we have here where it's like,
10:18
Speaker 4: you know, Spags, he won't mind giving up the yards.
10:21
Speaker 4: It's all about in the red zone. If he can
10:22
Speaker 4: stop the Eagles in the red zone, bottle them down,
10:24
Speaker 4: they can win this game. That's how they will win
10:26
Speaker 4: this because we already know the deal, Chad. Like, the
10:29
Speaker 4: more I break down and look into this game, the
10:31
Speaker 4: Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs across the
10:34
Speaker 4: board in every position. Basically, it's like incredible, how well
10:38
Speaker 4: built this team is, that, how he's done this year,
10:40
Speaker 4: Like he basically nailed every little pick, every you know,
10:43
Speaker 4: bringing in linebackers that end up being all pros like
10:46
Speaker 4: that just doesn't happen in football. So when you really
10:49
Speaker 4: break it down, like we said, I get where the
10:51
Speaker 4: pros are coming from betting on this Eagles team, But
10:54
Speaker 4: me and you have gone through this, Chad, We've lived
10:56
Speaker 4: in the moment where the Chiefs are never the better team,
10:59
Speaker 4: but they are the best at playing chess in football,
11:02
Speaker 4: like them playing you and the clock and then the
11:04
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. That's where Andy Reid and Mahomes shine. So
11:08
Speaker 4: like we always talk about if it's if those three points,
11:11
Speaker 4: if we were a getting plus three, me you would
11:13
Speaker 4: have been happy to take the Eagles. But with Mahomes
11:16
Speaker 4: and Andy Reid under that key number of three, if
11:18
Speaker 4: Mahomes under that number, or he's a dog, you don't
11:21
Speaker 4: overthink it, you don't over analyze it. You just take
11:23
Speaker 4: the number that's great value. So it's the same thing here.
11:26
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, the more I break it down,
11:29
Speaker 4: I'm so glad we did that Tuesday show last week
11:31
Speaker 4: because at this point it would be hard for me
11:33
Speaker 4: not to be on the Eagles. But I keep in reminding
11:34
Speaker 4: myself that's the sucker move, Like you're having too much time,
11:38
Speaker 4: you're overthinking it. We get it. The egos of the
11:40
Speaker 4: better team. They don't have Mahomes, and that's always the
11:43
Speaker 4: difference for I joke with you come to the playoffs
11:45
Speaker 4: and say, if you want to win a super Bowl,
11:46
Speaker 4: you either need a ton of luck or Patrick Mahomes.
11:49
Speaker 4: The Chiefs have both. They have a ton of luck
11:51
Speaker 4: and they have Patrick Mahomes. So it's just my model
11:54
Speaker 4: can't quantify it. It's just one of those things that's
11:56
Speaker 4: the human intuition. Some that watches football and someone that
11:59
Speaker 4: just knows how this sport is. And it's the Tom
12:01
Speaker 4: Brady effect. It's like these guys, your model can't compute it.
12:05
Speaker 4: It's just the human element of it. So yeah, that's
12:07
Speaker 4: where I'm that with Mahomes. It's like I've been looking
12:10
Speaker 4: for reason to take this egle team, and I keep
12:11
Speaker 4: coming back to who do you trust in the fourth quarter,
12:14
Speaker 4: It's going to be Mahomes.
12:15
Speaker 2: Andy Reid, so yeah, don't overthink of people.
12:18
Speaker 1: Well, that's what's so interesting to me is that the
12:22
Speaker 1: Mahomes effect is why this line opened where it did.
12:26
Speaker 1: Because if you go back Brandon like last year, at
12:30
Speaker 1: this time, we're talking about the Niners and the Chiefs,
12:33
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs are two point underdogs, and everybody has
12:36
Speaker 1: the Niners power rated as the better roster by about
12:40
Speaker 1: two points. This year, everyone has the Eagles power rated
12:45
Speaker 1: as the better roster, and the Chiefs open at one
12:48
Speaker 1: and a half and two. And now it's finally moving
12:50
Speaker 1: in that direction. Some people are the bookmakers at least,
12:54
Speaker 1: are trying to quantify that Mahomes effect, even if some
13:00
Speaker 1: one else has taken the bait.
13:03
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think I noted.
13:05
Speaker 6: You know, we came on the podcast right after the
13:08
Speaker 6: NFC Championship and AFC Championship, and it's even before we
13:12
Speaker 6: got Chiefs or Bills playing out. We're gonna have the
13:14
Speaker 6: same matchup, far superior roster or far superior quarterback that
13:19
Speaker 6: was gonna be the decision in the Super Bowl, even
13:21
Speaker 6: if it had been the Bills, it was gonna be
13:22
Speaker 6: the same sort of setup. Was Okay, do you want
13:25
Speaker 6: Josh Allen or do you want everything else on the
13:28
Speaker 6: Eagles And you know, in this case you get Josh Allen,
13:32
Speaker 6: plus you get the other things, plus you get Andy
13:34
Speaker 6: Reid and you get spags and everything else. And yeah,
13:37
Speaker 6: it's hard to quantify, especially when the line is right
13:41
Speaker 6: around zero and it's like, okay, those half points and
13:44
Speaker 6: points aren't quite as valuable right around there compared to
13:47
Speaker 6: you if it was getting to year three or getting
13:50
Speaker 6: to where it's key number of spots, and you know
13:52
Speaker 6: it's more valuable now for moneyline play. So maybe that's
13:55
Speaker 6: probably the pivot instead to get some value out of
13:57
Speaker 6: the movement, and especially as someone that will be betting
14:00
Speaker 6: the Chiefs waiting for some of this money to push
14:03
Speaker 6: toward Philadelphia and get a little bit better price nextra
14:06
Speaker 6: five to ten cents on the Chiefs. Thank you, I
14:09
Speaker 6: appreciate it. I appreciate any line movement in this direction.
14:12
Speaker 6: But yeah, to me, I think one thing that we
14:17
Speaker 6: need to factor in despite that, the Eagles' roster strength
14:20
Speaker 6: is very clear, the line, the weapons, the defensive talent.
14:24
Speaker 7: I think one key for me.
14:26
Speaker 6: Philadelphia's had such a soft strength of schedule this season,
14:30
Speaker 6: and you can only beat the teams that are in
14:31
Speaker 6: front of you. But do you guys know they've only
14:33
Speaker 6: played all season, including the playoffs, still four games against
14:38
Speaker 6: a top twelve DVA offense this or DVA defense this
14:41
Speaker 6: entire season, and so we don't really trust what will
14:45
Speaker 6: the offense do. For the Eagles in particular, they've I
14:48
Speaker 6: think only trailed something like four minutes in the fourth
14:51
Speaker 6: quarter in the last thirteen games.
14:53
Speaker 2: Well, that's great.
14:54
Speaker 6: That means that you're a really good team in winning
14:56
Speaker 6: a lot, but you might trail against the Chiefs, And
14:59
Speaker 6: now what's going to happen? What's gonna happen? Jalen hurts
15:02
Speaker 6: when you actually have to go do the thing and
15:05
Speaker 6: go win the game in the big moment. Now, look,
15:07
Speaker 6: he did the thing two years ago, and we kind
15:10
Speaker 6: of get to the spot where Eagles two years ago,
15:13
Speaker 6: forty nine Ers last year, and now Eagles this time.
15:15
Speaker 6: Is like, Okay, you hear a lot of people that
15:18
Speaker 6: are just just take the Chiefs, just take Mahomes. And
15:21
Speaker 6: if you're on the other side, and I have to
15:23
Speaker 6: admit I've been on the other side both the last
15:25
Speaker 6: two Super Bowls, you find yourself getting creative. You don't
15:29
Speaker 6: want to just take the Eagles. You're like, well, Eagles,
15:32
Speaker 6: but first half or we were talking before he came on,
15:35
Speaker 6: what if I get bet Eagles first fifty eight minutes?
15:38
Speaker 6: Like we're all terrified of Mahomes. And I think it
15:42
Speaker 6: should be telling to us as betters that one side
15:47
Speaker 6: feels confident just taking the team and the points and
15:50
Speaker 6: the number whatever it is, and the other side is like, well,
15:53
Speaker 6: like I did last time Philadelphia halftime in a full
15:56
Speaker 6: time and I was like, Okay, my numbers say I
15:58
Speaker 6: like the Eagles, even though I want to bet on
16:00
Speaker 6: pat And if I do like the Eagles, I'm probably
16:03
Speaker 6: gonna like them if they're leading at behalf, because they've
16:05
Speaker 6: been such a good second half team like they have
16:07
Speaker 6: been this year, and so I kind of talk myself
16:09
Speaker 6: about the way they're they are up ten at the half.
16:12
Speaker 6: They still didn't win anyways because Mahomes, because they found
16:15
Speaker 6: a way late. So I think it's telling that you
16:19
Speaker 6: see a lot of smart betters betting on the Eagles,
16:23
Speaker 6: but betting creatively to still get away from the money
16:26
Speaker 6: line and the points because we're so afraid of what
16:29
Speaker 6: the Chiefs and Mahomes have done late. There is just
16:32
Speaker 6: something unquantifiable about eleven to zero one score games, about
16:37
Speaker 6: making those plays and about having frankly maybe the best
16:40
Speaker 6: to ever do it down the stretch being able to
16:42
Speaker 6: come up with something.
16:44
Speaker 1: Well, Simon, you're a professional Better who seems to be
16:47
Speaker 1: going against your brethren in quantifying it or not exactly
16:53
Speaker 1: quantifying it, but taking it into account when you're making
16:58
Speaker 1: your bet. Whereas the money is moving from professional Better
17:02
Speaker 1: is in the direction of the Eagles, who while of
17:04
Speaker 1: the Eagles power rated higher, why are professional Better is
17:08
Speaker 1: being so stubborn and not recognizing the brilliance and clutchness
17:14
Speaker 1: of Patrick Mahomes.
17:16
Speaker 2: They're also playing the odds too.
17:17
Speaker 4: I don't want to make it sound like these guys
17:19
Speaker 4: are idiots, like they're just playing the mathematical number.
17:21
Speaker 2: Like you just read those stats, Chad.
17:23
Speaker 4: It's not going to keep going that way forever, right,
17:25
Speaker 4: we know we know that things, especially in our line
17:28
Speaker 4: of work, they always break the other way.
17:29
Speaker 2: My view of is okay, But what if he's the exception?
17:33
Speaker 2: Like that's my whole issue with it.
17:34
Speaker 4: Where they where they keep bringing up the historical data
17:36
Speaker 4: and everything like that, that's like, do we have an historical
17:39
Speaker 4: data to back up Mahomes here like nothing he does
17:41
Speaker 4: makes any sense. We've already talked about this at nauseum,
17:44
Speaker 4: but like you know, he is someone that just raises
17:48
Speaker 4: to the level and things always just break his way.
17:52
Speaker 4: I joked about with you in life chat if I
17:53
Speaker 4: had a superpower, my super power would be luck. I
17:56
Speaker 4: my whole life have always been lucky. I'm one of
17:58
Speaker 4: those people, and I think my home is the exact
18:00
Speaker 4: same way. Like to me, they were gonna lose that
18:02
Speaker 4: Bills game. He needed his defense to step up and
18:05
Speaker 4: make a stop. That wasn't the Mahomes were used to, right,
18:08
Speaker 4: it's usually him controlling his own destinaily not there like
18:11
Speaker 4: they the Bills. If they got a couple of first
18:13
Speaker 4: downs gone down the field got their touchdown, that game
18:16
Speaker 4: was gonna be over. But it played in Mahomes right.
18:19
Speaker 4: The defense did step up when they need too, They
18:21
Speaker 4: did get the stops, and the first time all season
18:23
Speaker 4: he was able to score over thirty points. Like, it's
18:26
Speaker 4: just the way it is. None of it makes sense.
18:28
Speaker 4: So I do think it's interesting the fact that they
18:31
Speaker 4: are stubborn where me and you we learned our lesson
18:35
Speaker 4: with that Ravens game last year.
18:37
Speaker 2: Like that was really enlightening to me.
18:39
Speaker 4: Of just it doesn't matter if it's a horrible matchup
18:42
Speaker 4: for Mahomes and he's going against one of the best
18:44
Speaker 4: teams I've ever seen.
18:45
Speaker 2: That Ravens team was last year, it didn't matter.
18:48
Speaker 4: You overcame it with a horrible team and they end
18:50
Speaker 4: up win a super Bowl. The same thing can be
18:52
Speaker 4: said for him this year. It's like, we know, they're
18:54
Speaker 4: not that great of a team when we talked, like
18:56
Speaker 4: they have an awful offensive line, they somehow went fifteen
18:59
Speaker 4: to one.
19:00
Speaker 2: Like he just overcomes all these things.
19:01
Speaker 4: So I'm right there with you, like, you know, my
19:05
Speaker 4: view of this Eagles team is, you know, yeah, sure,
19:08
Speaker 4: they've had a pretty easy path. I mean both super
19:11
Speaker 4: Bowls they've made it to in the last three years,
19:14
Speaker 4: they only need to beat a rookie quarterback in their
19:16
Speaker 4: conference championship to make it. Mahomes had to beat Josh
19:18
Speaker 4: Allen and Lamar. It's like, we are not the same.
19:21
Speaker 4: Those are a totally different world. So I totally get
19:24
Speaker 4: that viewpoint. But I do think it's interesting that, you know,
19:26
Speaker 4: coming to the season, any when you talk to had
19:29
Speaker 4: a higher grade in review on Jordan Love or Stafford
19:32
Speaker 4: and he basically Eagles basically beat those two teams by
19:35
Speaker 4: double digits, and we all heard the noise coming to this,
19:37
Speaker 4: right Jane Daniels. People are viewing him as the best
19:40
Speaker 4: quarterback in the NFC right now, and he got absolutely
19:42
Speaker 4: rolled in that game against the Eagles.
19:44
Speaker 2: He put up twenty three points.
19:45
Speaker 4: So this is the defense that have stepped up every
19:48
Speaker 4: quarterback they've faced. They're now going against the best quarterback
19:51
Speaker 4: we've ever seen, arguably, So.
19:53
Speaker 2: Can they do it one more time?
19:55
Speaker 4: We know all the day and the Fangs defense, right,
19:57
Speaker 4: he actually matches up pretty well with Mahomes just because you'
20:00
Speaker 4: Russia's for But in those games, we never saw Fanks
20:04
Speaker 4: have a good quarterback on the other side, So we
20:06
Speaker 4: know he's over eight. But those we talked about, those
20:08
Speaker 4: numbers are a little skewed. Evan helped us break that
20:11
Speaker 4: down that it's not as overwhelming terrible as you think
20:14
Speaker 4: it would be. So I know why pros are betting
20:17
Speaker 4: this Eagles team chat. But like we joked, we've learned
20:19
Speaker 4: our lesson. As long as we're getting Mahomes with Andy
20:22
Speaker 4: Reid as under a three points, me and you are
20:25
Speaker 4: not gonna overthink it anymore. And I'm so happy because
20:27
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna let you. I was worried you were
20:28
Speaker 4: going to try to zag on this one, but no,
20:30
Speaker 4: we we both came to the dark side.
20:33
Speaker 2: We're both on the Chiefs.
20:34
Speaker 1: No. But what's interesting is you mentioned the regression. And
20:38
Speaker 1: I was actually talking about this with someone yesterday, which
20:43
Speaker 1: was we're so dug in on the Chiefs. Are we
20:48
Speaker 1: not accounting for the possibility of regression? Brandon? At what
20:54
Speaker 1: point do the numbers become so big that regression isn't
21:01
Speaker 1: the norm, regression is the anomaly? And have we hit that?
21:06
Speaker 2: Yeah?
21:06
Speaker 6: I mean I think we have to account that that.
21:08
Speaker 6: You know, there is always the exception proves the rule,
21:11
Speaker 6: and it certainly seems like Mahomes read the whole Chiefs thing,
21:15
Speaker 6: have become the exception that proves the rule. And I
21:18
Speaker 6: think too, even betting against regression, you bet against regression,
21:23
Speaker 6: you know, on a futureist ticket for the whole playoffs,
21:25
Speaker 6: or you bet against regression on an entire regular season ticket.
21:29
Speaker 6: You don't necessarily bet against it in one game because
21:31
Speaker 6: now you're trying to catch the falling knife. And how
21:34
Speaker 6: do we know if progression came this game, maybe it does.
21:36
Speaker 6: Maybe the Chiefs go you know, zero for five on
21:39
Speaker 6: fourth down in this game or something, or maybe the
21:41
Speaker 6: Eagles go five for five in the red zone and
21:44
Speaker 6: four for four and fourth down like you know, fumble luck,
21:47
Speaker 6: all those things. That's why we watch the sport, That's
21:50
Speaker 6: why it's a fun sport to watch and bet on,
21:52
Speaker 6: because the ball is oblong and weird stuff's going to happen.
21:55
Speaker 6: But at some point you create your own luck. And
21:59
Speaker 6: it sure seems like somehow the Chiefs keep creating their
22:02
Speaker 6: own luck, like they're up with the luck rankings every time,
22:04
Speaker 6: of course, but all right, at some point are they
22:06
Speaker 6: breaking that formula too? Like is it just always going
22:09
Speaker 6: to come up? Patrick ma Holmes. That feels like is
22:12
Speaker 6: starting to look that way. And I think too, as
22:15
Speaker 6: we look at, you know, the metrics and the power ratings,
22:20
Speaker 6: I think we have to have learned by now also
22:22
Speaker 6: that that formula just doesn't work for the Chiefs and
22:25
Speaker 6: the playoffs. It is just not representative of what they are.
22:29
Speaker 6: They're saving plays for the playoffs. They're in fact probably
22:32
Speaker 6: purposefully burning bad plays or plays that might be bad
22:36
Speaker 6: to get them on tape in the regular season. To
22:38
Speaker 6: set them up for the playoffs, spags of saving his
22:41
Speaker 6: best stuff.
22:42
Speaker 7: Like we talked about that Josh.
22:43
Speaker 6: Allen play, the big one where they got three guys
22:47
Speaker 6: coming off the edge and everyone was upset about, well,
22:50
Speaker 6: should he have thrown it to Shakira underneath? You know
22:52
Speaker 6: he hits Kincaid in the hands. Should he have Kadawa?
22:55
Speaker 6: All the bills guys said, we didn't know that that
22:57
Speaker 6: blitz was coming. Like, they set up that one all
23:00
Speaker 6: game long, all season long. This was a different thing.
23:03
Speaker 6: They waited all year for one play when they needed
23:07
Speaker 6: it because they're the Chiefs and they can because they
23:10
Speaker 6: know they're gonna be here again, and they're they're playing
23:14
Speaker 6: a totally different game than everyone else. They're not fighting
23:17
Speaker 6: to get down to the end. They're gonna be at
23:19
Speaker 6: the end anyways. So the whole thing is a chess
23:22
Speaker 6: game toward the end. So their defensive metrics in October November,
23:26
Speaker 6: who cares doesn't matter, doesn't factor into how we have
23:29
Speaker 6: to think about them right now. Patrick Mahomes tenth best
23:33
Speaker 6: EPA or whatever it was for this season doesn't matter.
23:35
Speaker 7: Now.
23:36
Speaker 6: It's Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and in the super
23:38
Speaker 6: Bowl and that's the version we have to get. And
23:40
Speaker 6: so somehow that too is like unquantifiable in a power
23:45
Speaker 6: rating system and a setup of what the Chiefs are
23:48
Speaker 6: is that they're playing a different game than everyone else,
23:51
Speaker 6: and the metrics that we all use to measure things
23:54
Speaker 6: and try to capture stuff like this just don't quite
23:57
Speaker 6: work in a playoff setting when they have different rules.
24:00
Speaker 6: And it's kind of like the Patriots too, that they
24:02
Speaker 6: have their own rules, they did their own thing, and
24:04
Speaker 6: that somehow found a way to work.
24:06
Speaker 1: It's also harder for regression to come when three different factors,
24:11
Speaker 1: meaning Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, and Patrick Mahomes, need to
24:17
Speaker 1: underperform on the same exact play at the same exact
24:21
Speaker 1: time and the same exact circumstances. That's just not likely
24:25
Speaker 1: to happen. And those are the three factors that create
24:29
Speaker 1: this alchemy that is, as we've said, unquantifiable.
24:33
Speaker 4: That's been my argument thought what you just said, I said,
24:36
Speaker 4: I believe that you're right, regression is coming once those
24:39
Speaker 4: pieces are gone. Okay, like Momes, this will come back around.
24:43
Speaker 4: That has to be once Amy or Spag someone something
24:46
Speaker 4: has to change dramatically for this team to have regression
24:49
Speaker 4: in that type of ways. That's been my pushback against it.
24:51
Speaker 4: Same thing last week, like guys were handing the bills
24:54
Speaker 4: because they love that Bill's number that side. I kept
24:56
Speaker 4: pushing them back against it, saying, you're overthinking this, like
24:59
Speaker 4: that regression. You can't qualify for these one or two games.
25:02
Speaker 4: They're just it doesn't work that way, especially with Mahomes
25:05
Speaker 4: and you know so far we've seen it. It's it's
25:07
Speaker 4: hold true he's eight to ozher when it's under three
25:09
Speaker 4: points in the playoffs. It's just you can't wrap your
25:11
Speaker 4: head around. All you gotta do is not overthinking.
25:13
Speaker 2: Just bet it.
25:14
Speaker 1: Randon. We have a note here about betting on Super
25:17
Speaker 1: Bowl defense. Explain yourself.
25:20
Speaker 6: Yeah, I always want to bet on defense to make
25:23
Speaker 6: big plays in Super Bowl. For whatever reason, defenses just
25:26
Speaker 6: score touchdowns at this way outlier rate.
25:29
Speaker 7: In the Super Bowl.
25:30
Speaker 6: Last Super Bowl matchup, Nick Bolton returns the fumble. Jalenhurs
25:34
Speaker 6: just dropped the ball. Basically, Nick Bolton returns for a touchdown.
25:37
Speaker 6: And don't forget later in the game we thought he
25:39
Speaker 6: returned a second fumble for a touchdown. That's a return
25:42
Speaker 6: in that game. Otherwise he's MVP in that game. There
25:45
Speaker 6: are in fifty eight Super Bowls one two defensive touchdowns.
25:49
Speaker 6: There's been at least one in nineteen out of fifty eight,
25:51
Speaker 6: so that's almost one in every three Super Bowls that
25:54
Speaker 6: we're getting a touchdown. Is it random, Locke, It might
25:57
Speaker 6: be fifty, it's not a big sample size. But to me,
26:00
Speaker 6: defenses that are over prepped and scouted so that they
26:03
Speaker 6: kind of know when to jump the pass lane and
26:05
Speaker 6: know to go for something, and it's teams emptying the tank.
26:09
Speaker 6: You may as well throw that pick six because you're
26:11
Speaker 6: just gonna lose Super Bowl anyways unless you give it
26:13
Speaker 6: a shot. So to me, you want to bet on
26:17
Speaker 6: defense touchdowns somehow in the Super Bowl because this is
26:20
Speaker 6: just a go to every year. Now this year, I
26:22
Speaker 6: think it's a little less likely. These teams are both
26:24
Speaker 6: very careful with the ball. They're not turning over a lot.
26:27
Speaker 6: But that's of course, Drew of all Super Bowl teams.
26:29
Speaker 6: That's how you get to the Super Bowl, and somehow
26:31
Speaker 6: this thing keeps happening. So depending on the book you play,
26:34
Speaker 6: pay attention how you're betting it. There's defense touchdown, there's
26:37
Speaker 6: defense special teams touchdown, special teams a little more meated
26:40
Speaker 6: this year. I don't need to pay to include special teams.
26:44
Speaker 6: Usually these are interceptions. Eleven out of thirteen defense touchdowns
26:48
Speaker 6: since two thousand, event interceptions, not fumble recoveries. In this game,
26:51
Speaker 6: maybe a little bit less so because we're gonna get
26:53
Speaker 6: a lot of running of course from Philadelphia. And the
26:55
Speaker 6: key thing for me those twenty two defense touchdowns all
26:59
Speaker 6: but three came by the winning team. So what I
27:03
Speaker 6: want to do is I'm going to get aggressive. I
27:04
Speaker 6: always love to give up some outs, get aggressive and
27:06
Speaker 6: get the better number. The Chiefs defense to score touchdown
27:10
Speaker 6: in a Chiefs win is plus nine to fifty. Or
27:14
Speaker 6: you can do Eagles same thing. Eagles defense touchdown and
27:17
Speaker 6: Eagles win plus one thousand. Samon, you talked about like
27:21
Speaker 6: what's the edge, what's the way the Eagles find a
27:23
Speaker 6: way to win? Well, very often in a game like this,
27:25
Speaker 6: the way is the ball bounced, weird, we picked up
27:28
Speaker 6: a fumble, we ran it in Ah Look seven points
27:31
Speaker 6: free for us. Turns out that's a pretty good way
27:33
Speaker 6: to flip a coin. Flip outcome. You can bet both
27:36
Speaker 6: of those Chiefs defense touchdown in their win, Eagles defense
27:39
Speaker 6: touchdown and their win together is basically like an implied
27:42
Speaker 6: plus four thirty seven. That's nineteen percent likely that outcome
27:47
Speaker 6: has happened a defensive touchdown by the winner twenty eight
27:49
Speaker 6: percent of the time. So that's a pretty huge edge
27:52
Speaker 6: in your favor. And I think two defensive MVP is
27:56
Speaker 6: in play. We've had that almost one in six Super Bowls,
28:00
Speaker 6: fifteen point five percent of the time. You can just
28:02
Speaker 6: bet any defender MVP how many books fifteen to one
28:06
Speaker 6: or I think you want to sprinkle.
28:07
Speaker 7: Some long shots.
28:08
Speaker 6: Nick Bolton, guy that could have won it last time,
28:11
Speaker 6: is four hundred to one at one book. Nolan Smith,
28:14
Speaker 6: the guy that I know we've talked about as a
28:16
Speaker 6: sack master against those bad tackles, three hundred to one.
28:20
Speaker 6: Linebackers are three the last four this century that have
28:23
Speaker 6: been a defensive MVP. I just have to have some
28:26
Speaker 6: piece of defense. I'm going to bet every single Super
28:29
Speaker 6: Bowl because it hits more often than it doesn't and
28:32
Speaker 6: the numbers don't reflect it.
28:34
Speaker 1: What do you think of that, Simon?
28:35
Speaker 2: I love it.
28:36
Speaker 4: I mean honestly, it's this the type of game where
28:38
Speaker 4: that obviously could change the whole game. And I like,
28:40
Speaker 4: if your team's gonna win. They get defensive touchdown. We
28:43
Speaker 4: saw the last time they played. That's how the Chiefs
28:45
Speaker 4: basically won their game.
28:46
Speaker 2: Right. The Eagles played a.
28:48
Speaker 4: Perfect first half, but did that because it was twenty
28:50
Speaker 4: one to ten, that's seven points mattered in the end,
28:53
Speaker 4: Like you know, Malmes woke up the second half and
28:55
Speaker 4: that was all she wrote. So yeah, that's that's an
28:58
Speaker 4: interesting plan. I was trying to think, who the hell
29:01
Speaker 4: was the last special teams with the Devin Hester? Was
29:04
Speaker 4: that the last special teams touchdown against the Colts?
29:07
Speaker 1: That seems like that's eighteen years ago.
29:10
Speaker 2: I know it was, like, is it Percy Harvin? I
29:11
Speaker 2: was trying to think, who the hell?
29:12
Speaker 4: And the Super Bowl didn't It's like Brandon brings up
29:15
Speaker 4: a great point here, that's like a dumb bet to
29:16
Speaker 4: make special teams with the defense. You might as well
29:20
Speaker 4: get rid of that, just go strictly defense, just because
29:23
Speaker 4: unless you're a Hall of Famer, apparently you're not going
29:25
Speaker 4: to score a random mass touchdown in the Super Bowl.
29:27
Speaker 4: I mean, even Kadarius Tony got close against the Eagles,
29:29
Speaker 4: but he didn't score.
29:30
Speaker 1: I don't think, I do think, I do feel like
29:32
Speaker 1: Percy Harvin scored a touchdown, but I can't remember who
29:36
Speaker 1: it was, four ab Seahawks.
29:38
Speaker 2: I guess right, Oh right, yeah, you're right. I can't
29:40
Speaker 2: remember either. I think he did that, but we're just
29:43
Speaker 2: making a point. That's how insanely rare it is to
29:45
Speaker 2: score of special teams.
29:47
Speaker 1: Brandon, we've talked a lot about Xavier Worthy. This week.
29:52
Speaker 1: I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half
29:56
Speaker 1: receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown thanks to doctor Nick Giffen.
30:01
Speaker 1: That was four to one. So why are you laughing
30:04
Speaker 1: at that?
30:04
Speaker 2: Just because I just love You're bringing this up every show.
30:07
Speaker 2: You're just a wild man every show, absolute wild man,
30:10
Speaker 2: every show.
30:11
Speaker 4: Props I haven't even given out yet, you're still bringing
30:12
Speaker 4: up props. You've talked every show.
30:14
Speaker 1: So I know Brandon has a has some thoughts on
30:17
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy.
30:18
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is in this particular match,
30:21
Speaker 6: but I think he could be the key to the
30:23
Speaker 6: Chiefs offensive attack. So the whole point of Fangio defense,
30:26
Speaker 6: take away the deep, take away the middle. This particular
30:30
Speaker 6: defense takes away tight ends and running backs really well.
30:33
Speaker 6: Running back screens obviously, is the Andy Ree specialty. That's
30:36
Speaker 6: a lot of stuff they're taken away. But that really
30:39
Speaker 6: sets up to exactly how the Chiefs play, much to
30:42
Speaker 6: our chagrin. We want to see Patrick Mahomes do the
30:44
Speaker 6: stuff he used to do, but he'd stop doing the
30:46
Speaker 6: stuff used to do because half the defense start doing
30:49
Speaker 6: fangio defense and all the quarterbacks had to start doing
30:52
Speaker 6: the short stuff and eating that way. So Eagles play
30:55
Speaker 6: zone about two thirds of the snaps. They play a
30:57
Speaker 6: lot of Cover four and Cover six more covers any
31:00
Speaker 6: human in the NFL. The way you beat that scheme
31:03
Speaker 6: is in the flats, you beat Cover three. Another thing
31:05
Speaker 6: that he goes play a lot of with horizontal stretches. Okay, well,
31:08
Speaker 6: who am I throwing to in the flat or getting
31:11
Speaker 6: my speed guy in a horizontal stretch? That's zeb You're
31:13
Speaker 6: Worthy all game long. Sixty two of his seventy catches
31:17
Speaker 6: this season have been either short or behind the line
31:20
Speaker 6: of scrimmage PFF grade ninety or better. On those average
31:23
Speaker 6: seven and a half yards after completion. That is the
31:26
Speaker 6: whole thing with Zavier Worthy. Now, the Chiefs took a
31:28
Speaker 6: while to realize that they thought he was Tyreek Hill
31:30
Speaker 6: for the first twelve weeks of this season, and he
31:33
Speaker 6: had a twelve yards a dot. Then after that six
31:36
Speaker 6: yard a dot, they totally changed how they've been using
31:39
Speaker 6: him week thirteen forward, and I've been betting his overs
31:42
Speaker 6: throughout the playoffs. On receptions in the flats alone, his
31:46
Speaker 6: ePaper play is ninety ninth percentile.
31:48
Speaker 7: Like, this is the best.
31:49
Speaker 6: Weapon right now, maybe in the league or close to it,
31:52
Speaker 6: getting it out on quick pass to The Chiefs are
31:54
Speaker 6: the number one team on quick passes, where Xavier Worthy
31:57
Speaker 6: is getting about a third of those for the season
32:00
Speaker 6: last four games alone, sixteen and a half EPA added
32:03
Speaker 6: on quick passes. So I never would have guessed this
32:06
Speaker 6: guy who I'm about to mention would show up on
32:08
Speaker 6: a Super Bowl show. Wondale Robinson for the Giants, to me,
32:12
Speaker 6: is a key name to look at you're comparing to
32:14
Speaker 6: Xavier Worthy, just a similar but clearly worse style player.
32:18
Speaker 6: In both Giants games this season, he had six catches
32:22
Speaker 6: and ten catches. Now, they didn't go very well because
32:24
Speaker 6: it's Wondale Robinson, but he had more catches and more
32:27
Speaker 6: targets than Malik Nabors both those games, because that's how
32:30
Speaker 6: you attack this defense. So I love Zavier Worthy in
32:33
Speaker 6: this game. Last five games, he's averaging six point four
32:36
Speaker 6: catches a game. He's averaging forty six yards after the catch,
32:41
Speaker 6: So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but
32:44
Speaker 6: I think big plays a chance to get into the
32:46
Speaker 6: end zone get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown
32:49
Speaker 6: bet for the last five we know he's going to
32:51
Speaker 6: run the ball a time or two. A lot of
32:53
Speaker 6: people I know are betting the over five and a
32:55
Speaker 6: half rush yards. He's had akiri and at least in
32:59
Speaker 6: fourteen game of the season, he's had five or more
33:01
Speaker 6: yards rushing in eleven of those fourteen, so I think
33:04
Speaker 6: that's a good way. And then my favorite way is
33:06
Speaker 6: I'm just on the volume receptions. So over five and
33:09
Speaker 6: a half reception is still plus money for Xavier Worthy.
33:12
Speaker 6: That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's
33:14
Speaker 6: still good price. And then you know me with the
33:16
Speaker 6: escalator seven or more receptions around plus two twenty five,
33:20
Speaker 6: eight or more plus four to twenty five. I can't
33:23
Speaker 6: quite get there on MVP because same thing with Travis Kelcey,
33:27
Speaker 6: who's throwing the ball on all these it's still going
33:29
Speaker 6: to be pat getting the credit for it. So I
33:31
Speaker 6: think if you want an MVP look for Worthy that
33:34
Speaker 6: the upside is maybe he runs it in or maybe
33:37
Speaker 6: a special teams or trick play. Okay, well bet fat.
33:40
Speaker 6: There's a different way you can play it, bet, like
33:41
Speaker 6: a longest rush or some other creative.
33:43
Speaker 7: Way to do it. Paprick is too big of a
33:46
Speaker 7: deal to go MVP.
33:48
Speaker 6: I do notice though, his longest reception prop is around
33:52
Speaker 6: twenty one yards or so, so a Nick Giffen special
33:56
Speaker 6: here for me, negative correlated bet over five and a
33:59
Speaker 6: half catches under twenty one longest reception Last week or
34:04
Speaker 6: against the Bills, he had that long catch that was
34:06
Speaker 6: probably not a catch right that the rest of side
34:08
Speaker 6: it was a catch. Other than that play, he's not
34:11
Speaker 6: gone twenty one yards or more in like seven games,
34:14
Speaker 6: So these aren't really huge long plays. They're just zero
34:18
Speaker 6: yard passes that he's ripping around the end for twelve yards,
34:20
Speaker 6: fifteen yards, nine yards over and over. So I think
34:23
Speaker 6: that's something that Chiefs will attack a lot. You can
34:25
Speaker 6: get over on the receptions under on the longest catch
34:29
Speaker 6: is plus four to eleven because it's negative correlation. So
34:32
Speaker 6: I think just lots of fun ways to play Zavir
34:34
Speaker 6: Worthy in this game.
34:35
Speaker 1: Simon, what props of yours I want to hear? Should
34:40
Speaker 1: we be discussing right now?
34:42
Speaker 5: Uh?
34:42
Speaker 4: My favorite one is definitely both teams have successful fourth
34:45
Speaker 4: down covent like, so basically need the Eagles converted fourth down,
34:50
Speaker 4: Chiefs converted fourth down. Both these teams I feel like,
34:53
Speaker 4: are going to go for higher risk, like they know
34:55
Speaker 4: what that stake.
34:56
Speaker 2: Here, especially Syria. I has heard all.
34:58
Speaker 4: Week about that punt he did take lefelast time they played,
35:00
Speaker 4: and not going for it on fourth down.
35:02
Speaker 2: No chance he doesn't go for it.
35:04
Speaker 4: It was minus one twenty when I told you this morning, Chat,
35:06
Speaker 4: it's already up to minus win twenty five.
35:08
Speaker 2: So that's that's a number that's moving on.
35:09
Speaker 4: Bet three six five another one we already talked about
35:13
Speaker 4: with Chris Raybond.
35:14
Speaker 2: Either team to win by exactly three points. I think
35:16
Speaker 2: it's fun.
35:17
Speaker 4: It's plus four hundred, yes, And we just talked to that,
35:21
Speaker 4: like we think the Eagles are gonna, you know, perform
35:24
Speaker 4: well first half.
35:25
Speaker 2: We just don't trust them full game.
35:27
Speaker 4: If you like that bet, like if you just want
35:29
Speaker 4: to take the Eagles first half, me and Chat already
35:31
Speaker 4: said we liked the Chiefs full game I've made this bet.
35:35
Speaker 2: This is another number that's moving.
35:36
Speaker 4: The Chiefs were the Eagles, were Eagles win first half,
35:39
Speaker 4: Chiefs to win the game was plus three six fifty
35:41
Speaker 4: on bet three six five. It's down to plus five
35:43
Speaker 4: to fifty now, so that number as well is moving.
35:46
Speaker 4: So that's another way you going to try to attack this.
35:48
Speaker 4: Where you know Mahomes I believe was Stucky or maybe
35:50
Speaker 4: it was Chris gave an amazing stat that he is
35:52
Speaker 4: zero for four in his career in first half against
35:54
Speaker 4: the spread. So that's another way you can play it
35:57
Speaker 4: where you know, he gets down by ten points in
35:59
Speaker 4: the first half, he ends up winning these games mames.
36:02
Speaker 4: So that's a fun value bet. If you're not alive better,
36:04
Speaker 4: you can't attack that. This is another way to play
36:06
Speaker 4: that market. Just take the Eagles first half cheaps to
36:09
Speaker 4: win the game. That's a fun plot.
36:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, Stucky gave out Eagles first half. I think plus
36:13
Speaker 1: one and a half are not exactly a win, but
36:15
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. In the Action Network podcast
36:19
Speaker 1: Sunday six Pack, you mentioned Super Bowl MVP a couple
36:25
Speaker 1: of times, brand and both with defensive players and Xavier Worthy.
36:30
Speaker 1: Why you wouldn't want to bet him for MVP. Do
36:33
Speaker 1: you have MVP thoughts that are not Patrick Mahomes and
36:35
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts?
36:37
Speaker 7: Do I have MVP thoughts? Chat out?
36:38
Speaker 6: Always have MVP thoughts. Quarterback, obviously is who you want
36:42
Speaker 6: here most of the time. Fifty seven percent of all
36:44
Speaker 6: MVPs are quarterbacks. Thirteen of the last eighteen have been
36:47
Speaker 6: just the quarterback on the winning team seventy two percent,
36:50
Speaker 6: so about three out of four times.
36:52
Speaker 7: Basically that that's just what we do.
36:53
Speaker 6: We know that already, right if it's not a quarterback, actually,
36:56
Speaker 6: defender is what you want most. That's why already gave
36:58
Speaker 6: that one out ten defense. Nine receivers, no tight ends.
37:02
Speaker 6: Notable in this one because Travis Kelcey only seven running
37:05
Speaker 6: backs too, last one Terrell Davis nineteen ninety eight. It's
37:08
Speaker 6: been a minute and a few since we got a
37:10
Speaker 6: running back, so to me, I mentioned not Xavier Worthy,
37:15
Speaker 6: but you gotta start the topic, kind of work your
37:16
Speaker 6: way down here. I'm not going to bet Patrick Mahomes
37:18
Speaker 6: win MVP, even though he very clearly is the heavy
37:21
Speaker 6: favorite to ain MVP. It's plus one ten the Chiefs.
37:24
Speaker 6: You can basically bet minus one now minus one ten,
37:27
Speaker 6: so In order for that to be the right way
37:29
Speaker 6: to bet the Chiefs. I know we all want to
37:30
Speaker 6: sneak in the extra twenty cents of value. Patrick Mahomes
37:33
Speaker 6: has to win MVP in ninety one percent of all
37:36
Speaker 6: Chiefs victories for that to be the right bet, and
37:38
Speaker 6: I know it feels like he's one hundred percent, but
37:40
Speaker 6: he's not one hundred percent. Like you can literally go
37:42
Speaker 6: through the schedule this year and say, okay, who would
37:44
Speaker 6: have won MVP that game, and he wins MVP like
37:47
Speaker 6: probably fourteen or fifteen of the games, which is eighty
37:49
Speaker 6: five percent, which is a lot, and it's still not
37:51
Speaker 6: ninety one percent. So you shouldn't bet Mahomes. There's too
37:55
Speaker 6: much randomness there. I personally can't bet Sakuan. He has
37:59
Speaker 6: been I think the Eagles MVP in something like eight
38:02
Speaker 6: to ten games this season, way more than you'd expect
38:05
Speaker 6: a running back to be it, including I would say
38:06
Speaker 6: all three playoff games so far. But at plus two
38:10
Speaker 6: to eighty, he's going to be MVP over half of
38:12
Speaker 6: all Eagles wins for that to be the bet, and
38:16
Speaker 6: I know that's what it feels like with him, But
38:18
Speaker 6: no running back, we're over the last twenty six years
38:22
Speaker 6: in a running back winning Super Bowl MVP, and I'm
38:26
Speaker 6: supposed to bet that the Eagles win the game, and
38:28
Speaker 6: over half of the time he's MVP. To me the
38:32
Speaker 6: way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting
38:34
Speaker 6: Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hurts MVP
38:37
Speaker 6: is a right play, and I think it's actually a
38:38
Speaker 6: great way to invest in Philly and sort of hedge
38:41
Speaker 6: against my Kansas City bet because I think the Chiefs
38:45
Speaker 6: win the Super Bowl because of Jalen Hurts. But if
38:48
Speaker 6: I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I
38:50
Speaker 6: also think it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. I think
38:52
Speaker 6: it'll be because Hurts did the tush push, got the touchdowns,
38:56
Speaker 6: got the scrambles. But I think because he did what
38:58
Speaker 6: he did last time in the Bowl. Frankly, he would
39:01
Speaker 6: have won MVP clearly if they won that game. He
39:04
Speaker 6: showed up as a passer. He was plus one forty
39:07
Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl last time. Now he's plus three eighty.
39:10
Speaker 6: That's because Saquon showed up and soaked up a lot
39:13
Speaker 6: of that value for MVP. But quarterbacks win MVP seventy
39:17
Speaker 6: two percent of the last eighteen years. He only has
39:19
Speaker 6: to win MVP forty three percent of Eagles wins for
39:22
Speaker 6: this to be the right bet. So to me, I
39:24
Speaker 6: think that's just it's just value. Even though I said
39:27
Speaker 6: this is the reason I'm not picking them. I think
39:30
Speaker 6: you can be wrong about something and sometimes it's okay
39:32
Speaker 6: to bet of what if I'm wrong about this, And
39:34
Speaker 6: I think this is a great way to possibly be
39:36
Speaker 6: wrong about it. Longer down the board of the other weapons,
39:40
Speaker 6: I like Davante's sixty six to one.
39:42
Speaker 7: He was thirty three oh one last time. I think
39:44
Speaker 7: that the Chiefs.
39:45
Speaker 6: Are going to justst and play more zone than they
39:47
Speaker 6: usually do. Davante is the zone beater. He's had ninety
39:50
Speaker 6: nine yards all three games against Bags, So I kind
39:53
Speaker 6: of like that as just a dart throw late. And
39:54
Speaker 6: I mentioned those defenders, But to me, it's three main
39:58
Speaker 6: guys you're starting at. It's Saquon, It's Hurts, and it's Mahomes,
40:01
Speaker 6: And only one of those numbers I think is the
40:03
Speaker 6: right number to play.
40:06
Speaker 1: Some would argue not me, because I'm not crazy. Some
40:10
Speaker 1: would argue that Super Bowl it was probably the last
40:14
Speaker 1: time Jalen Hurts had a good game.
40:18
Speaker 7: I mean, it's probably the best game you ever played.
40:20
Speaker 1: Right, Simon, Simon, did you hear what I said?
40:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're Chicago fan. You don't know what good quarterbacks
40:24
Speaker 2: look like.
40:28
Speaker 7: He does now they got Ben Jonson.
40:30
Speaker 1: It is interesting, you know, when you put the odds
40:34
Speaker 1: in that context for Saquon. I bet if you asked
40:37
Speaker 1: the average fan. And there have been studies about this,
40:38
Speaker 1: about sort of decision making and rationale, that people's memories
40:45
Speaker 1: of things influences and has more weight than it actually
40:52
Speaker 1: does in real life. And I bet if you went
40:54
Speaker 1: to most fans and said, was Saquon the MVP of
41:00
Speaker 1: an Eagles win? Fifty percent of the time people would say, oh, yes,
41:05
Speaker 1: for sure this year, when in reality he wasn't. That's
41:08
Speaker 1: a fascinating it is while you laughing, it's fascinating.
41:14
Speaker 2: Oh god, quick, get to Evan.
41:20
Speaker 1: Not yet, Brandon, Brandon before you go, give us one
41:26
Speaker 1: future for next season. I love your hot reads on
41:29
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. When you're giving us the two
41:32
Speaker 1: bets you're making right away seven days in advance, we
41:36
Speaker 1: are seven months in advance. Give us a future.
41:41
Speaker 6: Yeah, here's the twenty twenty six hot read, a full
41:43
Speaker 6: year in advance. So I have an article just went
41:46
Speaker 6: out at the actionnetwork dot com on who is next
41:49
Speaker 6: year's Eagles, Who's next year's Chiefs, next year's commanders? And
41:53
Speaker 6: this is one we've done a few years in a row.
41:55
Speaker 6: Last year in this article I picked as next year's Ravens.
41:59
Speaker 6: Then the Philadelphia Eagles twenty two to one, my first
42:02
Speaker 6: Super Bowl bet a year ago, because they fit a
42:05
Speaker 6: formula of Okay, they started out ten to one last year.
42:08
Speaker 6: They were coming off the Super Bowl berth, and they
42:09
Speaker 6: just fell apart late. But the system was there right.
42:12
Speaker 6: We knew what would work and what worked this year
42:14
Speaker 6: obviously is elite defense, devastated rushing attack. Okay, So who
42:18
Speaker 6: are next year's Eagles? My first Super Bowl bet for
42:21
Speaker 6: the new year San Francisco forty nine ers. It fits
42:24
Speaker 6: the Eagles formula. Kyle Shanahan has been in the NFC
42:28
Speaker 6: Championship Game five of the last nine years. There is
42:32
Speaker 6: no Patrick Mahomes in the NFC, but Kyle Shanahan might
42:35
Speaker 6: be as close as we get over in the NFC
42:37
Speaker 6: to just showing up year after year. Since they acquired
42:40
Speaker 6: Christian McCaffrey, they've been an offensive juggernaut and nothing changed
42:44
Speaker 6: this year. Nobody magically learned how to stop them. They
42:47
Speaker 6: just stopped being healthy. Ever, McCaffrey played four games, I
42:51
Speaker 6: missed ten, Trent Williams miss seven, Hurdy Deebo Kittle all
42:54
Speaker 6: miss multiple games. So the offense is gonna be great.
42:57
Speaker 6: We know that about them. And then you get the
42:59
Speaker 6: fan here, Robert Sala coming back from the Jets, coming
43:04
Speaker 6: home to get rid of Nick Sorens and the failed
43:07
Speaker 6: defensive coordinator. Sala's defense has been allowed top five fewest
43:12
Speaker 6: yards five of the last six seasons. That defense under
43:16
Speaker 6: Sala is going to be way better. And we saw
43:18
Speaker 6: even this year, as bad as the Jets were a
43:20
Speaker 6: laughing stock, Sala left, that defense fell apart like they
43:24
Speaker 6: were still decent defense. He leaves and they just completely
43:27
Speaker 6: went to shambles after that. This year, the Niners, even
43:31
Speaker 6: in a season from hell, still finish top ten offense,
43:34
Speaker 6: still finish almost top ten defense by DVAA. They went
43:38
Speaker 6: two and six and one score games. Flip those results
43:41
Speaker 6: that we know are mostly luck driven unless you're the
43:42
Speaker 6: Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Just flip those results. They win
43:46
Speaker 6: the division at ten and seven, even in the year
43:49
Speaker 6: from hell, to me The Niners are right there with
43:52
Speaker 6: the top five. Their price at number six, but kind
43:55
Speaker 6: of a distance six at every book. They to me,
43:57
Speaker 6: are probably the favorite in the I see you right now.
44:01
Speaker 6: Knowing what we know about Sala on the defense and
44:03
Speaker 6: everything on the offense, they'll be right in the Mikes.
44:06
Speaker 6: Twenty to one Niners is my first super Bowl pick
44:08
Speaker 6: for next season.
44:10
Speaker 2: Wow.
44:11
Speaker 1: I like it. It's exciting. Check out all of Brandon's
44:14
Speaker 1: picks for super Bowl fifty on his super Bowl Best
44:17
Speaker 1: Bets episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan Abrams,
44:21
Speaker 1: who we will get too shortly. We got a little
44:24
Speaker 1: bit of work left to do along with Super Bowl
44:27
Speaker 1: articles out now at actionnetwork dot com. Thank you Brandon Anderson.
44:32
Speaker 1: Great work. Uh Simon, guess what what? It's time for
44:37
Speaker 1: the Big Balls Better than weekt Our, Last one of
44:43
Speaker 1: the Year, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,
44:47
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44:53
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44:59
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs, We've talked about the money line, We've
45:02
Speaker 1: talked about the side. The money line was my exec decision.
45:05
Speaker 1: The side with Simon says we're going with the total
45:09
Speaker 1: it's moved down. It was about fifty to fifty and
45:12
Speaker 1: a half, then forty nine and a half down to
45:15
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. A lot of places you
45:16
Speaker 1: can still get a forty nine at bet three six five. Simon,
45:21
Speaker 1: this is a big balls back because I think we're
45:22
Speaker 1: both a little bit antsy about it.
45:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's really probably the most heavy of the
45:28
Speaker 4: game for splitswise, of the public versus professionals.
45:32
Speaker 2: Right, it's just only professionals.
45:35
Speaker 4: There's the only people I've talked to you, especially walking
45:36
Speaker 4: on the sports books, talking to different fans, especially Eagles fans,
45:40
Speaker 4: They're just like, oh, we put up fifty five last week,
45:42
Speaker 4: we're getting at least forty against this chief defense. In
45:45
Speaker 4: the back of mind, I'm just like, yeah, that's not
45:47
Speaker 4: how this works at all. So yeah, I get why
45:50
Speaker 4: the public is so excited about it, But me and
45:52
Speaker 4: you talked about it's.
45:53
Speaker 2: A key number still, forty nine.
45:55
Speaker 4: Please grab that while you still can, because the fear
45:57
Speaker 4: is right now that this professional money is gonna keeping
46:00
Speaker 4: this down to forty eight and a half. Forty eight,
46:01
Speaker 4: so we're crossing some key numbers here. You want to
46:04
Speaker 4: get that forty nine. It's a big deal to get it.
46:07
Speaker 1: The one thing that worries me is we see so
46:13
Speaker 1: often with these Super Bowls things go crazy in the
46:16
Speaker 1: second half. You know, the Chiefs have been down ten points,
46:20
Speaker 1: seven points whatever in multiple Super Bowls, low scoring super Bowls,
46:26
Speaker 1: ten to three, whatever it was, and then they come
46:28
Speaker 1: back and in the second half five six touchdowns by
46:32
Speaker 1: both teams. How do you feel about under twenty four
46:36
Speaker 1: and a half in the first half.
46:38
Speaker 2: I don't mind it. I mean I like it, and
46:40
Speaker 2: I bet it.
46:41
Speaker 4: And you know, doctor Nick came on here talked about
46:43
Speaker 4: how the chief second half unders. I've been a cash
46:46
Speaker 4: Kyle these last two years and we'veing bet in that
46:48
Speaker 4: as well. So I'll be honest with you, Chad, it's
46:51
Speaker 4: never fun doing it. We're just playing the numbers, and
46:54
Speaker 4: this is a long term winner, like the biggest one
46:56
Speaker 4: of my life. We literally hit the under last year
46:58
Speaker 4: a game that went to overtime. When we hit it
47:00
Speaker 4: by half a point, that's right, So that might be
47:02
Speaker 4: peak for us. It's usually, in my opinion, won't be
47:05
Speaker 4: that close. Like you to hit this over, you're gonna
47:08
Speaker 4: need a ton of luck on both sides. In the
47:11
Speaker 4: red zone, like both these teams make their money, make
47:13
Speaker 4: a team's kick field goals. On the same side, Eagles
47:16
Speaker 4: have been inconsistent this year in the red zone. Same
47:18
Speaker 4: with the Chiefs, Like, I mean even the playoffs shot.
47:20
Speaker 4: How many times are you losing your damn mind when
47:22
Speaker 4: Hurts would take that sack and get out of field
47:24
Speaker 4: goal range and they're punting. You do that against the Chiefs,
47:27
Speaker 4: you're dead, like you're not gonna You're not hitting it over.
47:30
Speaker 4: So I just think it's an overreaction by the public
47:32
Speaker 4: way too much. There's still a ton of value in
47:34
Speaker 4: this under in my opinion.
47:37
Speaker 1: All Right, we're going with the under as our big
47:38
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47:44
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Speaker 6: All right, Foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's going on,
50:29
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50:34
Speaker 1: We're going with Saquon Barkley. Under his total rushing yards
50:38
Speaker 1: of one hundred and twelve, the number has been coming down.
50:41
Speaker 1: Ray Bound has this power? Has this projected at closer
50:45
Speaker 1: to one oh six Kerner's at one ten. I think
50:48
Speaker 1: a lot of the stuff if everyone listened to Tuesday,
50:51
Speaker 1: we were talking a lot about leaning into under offensive
50:55
Speaker 1: yardage totals. We especially were looking at the under total
51:00
Speaker 1: rushing yardage total and like obviously siquan to go under
51:03
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve. Simon also mentioned a really fun
51:06
Speaker 1: one both teams to be successful fourth down minus one
51:10
Speaker 1: twenty five now at bet three six five, but Fox
51:13
Speaker 1: Oil was sick one Barkley under one hundred and twelve
51:16
Speaker 1: rushing yards Simon, your biggest bets.
51:20
Speaker 4: Biggest bets, definitely in the under. That's my biggest position
51:23
Speaker 4: image could you chap four?
51:24
Speaker 2: Came on?
51:25
Speaker 4: Like, I wish I could just take this week off
51:28
Speaker 4: because I hate going against my favorite team, the Eagles,
51:30
Speaker 4: But it's lining up that way, pretty heavy on the
51:33
Speaker 4: chief side, pretty heavy on the under. When it comes
51:37
Speaker 4: to the prop market, Definitely that fourth down one's a
51:39
Speaker 4: big one.
51:40
Speaker 2: Will there be a two pointer?
51:42
Speaker 4: I bet pretty heavy on And you know Chad knows,
51:44
Speaker 4: my favorite bet is usually one offensive lineman score a touchdown.
51:49
Speaker 4: I didn't take it this year just because both these
51:51
Speaker 4: teams aren't. I haven't really been in that style this season,
51:53
Speaker 4: Like the year we hit it with when it was McVeigh.
51:56
Speaker 4: We saw we kind of inside info that McVeagh have
51:58
Speaker 4: been practicing a two weeks lead up to that. Well,
52:00
Speaker 4: I don't have any great tips like that, but if
52:02
Speaker 4: you want to, if you want to bet any other
52:04
Speaker 4: any other player to make a pass attempt, I believe
52:05
Speaker 4: it's plus.
52:06
Speaker 2: Two six, that's always a fun one as well.
52:07
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of fun props out there, obviously,
52:10
Speaker 4: and as we get closer to game time, I'll try
52:12
Speaker 4: to tweet more out as well.
52:14
Speaker 1: Definitely, I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line
52:19
Speaker 1: and also Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a half
52:23
Speaker 1: pass attempts, which is basically correlated. If you think the
52:25
Speaker 1: Chiefs are going to win, it's likely going to be
52:27
Speaker 1: because they're holding a lead and not passing very often.
52:31
Speaker 1: All Right, Finally, finally, as Simon has requested, we are
52:38
Speaker 1: getting to Evan Abrams, our director of research. He's got
52:41
Speaker 1: a brand new article up on actionnetwork dot com. Be
52:44
Speaker 1: sure to check that out super Bowl specific. Evan, you
52:48
Speaker 1: get the last word, brother.
52:50
Speaker 2: The last word With Evan Abrams.
52:54
Speaker 8: We're finished talking what's up guys for I'm just going
52:57
Speaker 8: to start off the top here a note on something
52:59
Speaker 8: Brandon said and I hate to agree with him because
53:00
Speaker 8: I kind of do all the time, but we are
53:03
Speaker 8: podcast partners, so it's okay.
53:04
Speaker 9: But the Barkley MVP odds is so fascinating. So each
53:07
Speaker 9: of the last twenty one Super Bowls since two thousand
53:10
Speaker 9: and three, which is when we have data, had QB's
53:12
Speaker 9: one to two in odds, So Barkley would be the
53:14
Speaker 9: shortest odds and first to be one to two other
53:18
Speaker 9: than a quarterback, which is kind of crazy considering Marshaun
53:22
Speaker 9: Lynchlairer Fitzgerald, Shawn Alexander all in that span. So fascinating there.
53:27
Speaker 9: My first note is from our favorite Canadian mister Gallant.
53:30
Speaker 9: So in each of the Kansas City Chiefs three Super
53:33
Speaker 9: Bowl wins, four Chiefs one in each has scored a
53:36
Speaker 9: touchdown at plus five hundred odds or higher Mahomes twenty twenty,
53:41
Speaker 9: Sky Moore twenty twenty three, Cadarius twenty twenty three, and
53:44
Speaker 9: McCall Hardman in twenty four. So right now, that actually
53:46
Speaker 9: leads a bunch of options, Hopkins, Juju, p Ryan Watson,
53:51
Speaker 9: even Chiefs defense or options. My bet probably there would
53:55
Speaker 9: be Juju fourth most routes and pass snaps in the
53:58
Speaker 9: Conference championship and actually fourth most routes in the playoffs
54:01
Speaker 9: for the Chiefs.
54:02
Speaker 3: He's getting just a lot of looks there.
54:04
Speaker 9: The other thing that's kind of crazy, Hollywood's aid Dot
54:06
Speaker 9: averaged up. The target in the playoffs is almost twenty
54:08
Speaker 9: yards downfield, so getting a lot of deep looks. So
54:12
Speaker 9: those are the two there, any thoughts before I keep going?
54:14
Speaker 9: I got a bunch of bets here.
54:15
Speaker 1: My only thoughts are keep fucking going. I can't get
54:18
Speaker 1: enough of what you're saying.
54:19
Speaker 3: Ac running back debay to me is a large discussion.
54:23
Speaker 9: So Hunt out snap Pachecko in each of the last
54:25
Speaker 9: four games four point one yards per carry to three
54:28
Speaker 9: point zero even percent of carries three yards or more,
54:32
Speaker 9: fifty eight percent for Hunt, forty four percent for Pachecko.
54:34
Speaker 9: So I'm gonna try to believe that Hunt's going to
54:37
Speaker 9: get the majority of carries here, which is going to
54:39
Speaker 9: go to these two bets. So two long shots first
54:43
Speaker 9: to twenty yards in the game, Kareem Hunt is plus
54:45
Speaker 9: four point fifty, which I think is intriguing. Obviously, Casey's
54:48
Speaker 9: starting out with the ball would be nice, but four
54:51
Speaker 9: first carry first quarter carries against Buffalo in the Houston game.
54:55
Speaker 9: They actually started with Pacheco, but he went minus one
54:58
Speaker 9: six yards, one yard and then he was done. And
55:01
Speaker 9: then Pittsburgh, which is the game before that, Hunt gets
55:04
Speaker 9: three first quarter carries, so I think him getting a
55:06
Speaker 9: few chunk plays four yards, six yards, eight yards to
55:09
Speaker 9: get to that twenty before, like Barkley, is intriguing. The
55:12
Speaker 9: second bet is him to just score two touchdowns in
55:15
Speaker 9: this game. Everyone's betting on him to score one touchdown.
55:18
Speaker 9: He scored a touchdown in four straight games. He's actually
55:20
Speaker 9: scored a touchdown on all six of his playoff games,
55:23
Speaker 9: which is getting close to a record. But look at
55:25
Speaker 9: this Casey's carries inside the five yard line this season,
55:29
Speaker 9: Hunt has seventeen, the rest of Kansas City has eleven.
55:33
Speaker 9: And then you think about just reliability. I mean, Pachecko
55:36
Speaker 9: and Hunt both haven't fumbled this year, but if you
55:39
Speaker 9: look at Hunt, he hasn't fumbled since twenty twenty one.
55:41
Speaker 9: So I feel like in this type of game, they're
55:44
Speaker 9: going to rely on him. Andy Reid also loves him.
55:46
Speaker 9: He's a great story. I kind of see him getting
55:48
Speaker 9: a lot of love here. So two touchdowns at ten
55:50
Speaker 9: to one is my other bet with Kareem.
55:52
Speaker 1: Hunt nice, I like it, love it all.
55:55
Speaker 9: Right, Saquon Barkley. So I'm looking at this at two
55:58
Speaker 9: different angles. The Score's gonna hate me for bringing this
56:01
Speaker 9: out because they've actually been talking about this, and I
56:03
Speaker 9: was upset that they brought it up. But Bed three
56:05
Speaker 9: six five has his longest rush attempt in the game.
56:09
Speaker 9: He was actually minus one oh five like about two
56:12
Speaker 9: days ago. It's now up to minus one fifty for
56:14
Speaker 9: him to have the longest rush attempt in the game.
56:17
Speaker 9: So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has
56:20
Speaker 9: like eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options
56:23
Speaker 9: for him to stay atop this market, I just think
56:25
Speaker 9: are a plenty. I'll just regular season, he was eleven
56:29
Speaker 9: and five for just Philly in terms of having the
56:32
Speaker 9: longest rush in their games, and ten and six in
56:35
Speaker 9: the game itself, two and one in the playoffs are
56:37
Speaker 9: having the longest rush. And then if you just look
56:39
Speaker 9: at Philly's part of the field, because Kansas City really
56:42
Speaker 9: struggles in that second level yards and open field yards
56:46
Speaker 9: like they get small chunks, which I think helps play
56:48
Speaker 9: to this. If you look at Philly had ninety plays
56:51
Speaker 9: of ten plus yards on the ground, This year, thirty
56:53
Speaker 9: six everyone else but Saquon. Fifty four for Saquon, So
56:57
Speaker 9: I just feel like there's so many outs here. I
57:00
Speaker 9: I still like it in the minus one to fifty
57:01
Speaker 9: range and then the other prop, which is a little
57:04
Speaker 9: bit contradicting. But I heard you guys say you like
57:07
Speaker 9: Saquon under his full game prop.
57:10
Speaker 3: I think a more interesting one is first half.
57:12
Speaker 9: It's fifty eight and a half in the first half
57:15
Speaker 9: this season, he has eleven rushes of thirteen plus yards.
57:18
Speaker 3: Four of those eleven came just versus Washington.
57:22
Speaker 9: So to me, I think this line is just a
57:24
Speaker 9: little bit inflated, and I think we're getting a good
57:26
Speaker 9: price considering also he is a second half monster, most carried,
57:32
Speaker 9: most rushing yards, most ten plus yards, all in the
57:36
Speaker 9: second half, and Casey not lately. They've been struggling with
57:39
Speaker 9: explosive runs lately, but only allowed forty two of at
57:43
Speaker 9: least ten yards, which is the fourth fewest in the
57:45
Speaker 9: NFL all year.
57:46
Speaker 3: So I do believe Spags.
57:47
Speaker 9: Is going to focus on him, which is going to
57:49
Speaker 9: help that early bet, and then I think he find
57:52
Speaker 9: some longer runs to cash our first bet.
57:54
Speaker 3: In the second half.
57:55
Speaker 9: It's really going between two bets, but I kind of
57:58
Speaker 9: like the value on both.
58:00
Speaker 1: I like the value on everything you say, Evan. I
58:03
Speaker 1: think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous.
58:09
Speaker 9: I was worried when you guys are going through some
58:11
Speaker 9: of these bets to be on your side this one, unfortunately,
58:15
Speaker 9: which is I have one more after this, which kind
58:17
Speaker 9: of just backs up Simon, But this one's not with you, guys,
58:20
Speaker 9: but it's just another angle. So it's called reversal of fortune.
58:23
Speaker 9: Mahomes has trailed at the half and all four of
58:25
Speaker 9: his Super Bowl appearances. Stucky said that Simon said that earlier,
58:28
Speaker 9: but this year he's actually led at the half in
58:30
Speaker 9: eight straight games. So I believe the storyline each year
58:34
Speaker 9: in the Super Bowl of a case comeback just is
58:37
Speaker 9: a little noisy, Like obviously, the Hurts fumble really helped
58:41
Speaker 9: Casey get back in the game last time. So I
58:43
Speaker 9: feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in
58:46
Speaker 9: the Super Bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal,
58:49
Speaker 9: and a missfield goal. And the thing that I think
58:51
Speaker 9: is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less
58:55
Speaker 9: plays than Kansas City when they run no huddle, second
58:59
Speaker 9: highest rate in the NFL behind the Commanders, and they
59:01
Speaker 9: still run it at the highest rate in the NFL
59:03
Speaker 9: when they're behind. So I kind of feel like Casey
59:06
Speaker 9: wins the first half, Philly wins the full game is
59:10
Speaker 9: seven or eight to one, depending on the book, while
59:13
Speaker 9: that same bet, if you flip it is six to
59:16
Speaker 9: one even five point fifty for Kansas City. So I
59:18
Speaker 9: know everyone likes Kansas City to win the game, but
59:21
Speaker 9: I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which
59:23
Speaker 9: has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring
59:27
Speaker 9: it out in the second half. Because think about this,
59:29
Speaker 9: Eagles have a rock bottom forty percent pass rate when
59:32
Speaker 9: leading by at least a score. It jumps to fifty
59:35
Speaker 9: eight percent when trailing, So I do feel like they're
59:37
Speaker 9: going to run the ball when they're trailing and even
59:40
Speaker 9: pass it even more and get back in the game.
59:42
Speaker 9: So I kind of like that price it's between seven
59:44
Speaker 9: and eight to one.
59:45
Speaker 4: No, I think it's interesting take these as My view
59:48
Speaker 4: is the Chiefs basically not that the Afs does have
59:51
Speaker 4: good pass rush, but he's basically every year he makes
59:53
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl, he's facing arguably the best pass russ
59:56
Speaker 4: in the NFC. Right the Eagles two years and the
59:59
Speaker 4: forty nine ers, and even that Tampa team had a
1:00:01
Speaker 4: great pass rus.
1:00:02
Speaker 2: So that to me all excuse where.
1:00:03
Speaker 4: It's like Mahomes goes from doing our helly once against
1:00:06
Speaker 4: an easy pass Russ in the AFC to being like,
1:00:08
Speaker 4: holy shit, these are really good, really good pass us
1:00:10
Speaker 4: in the first half and it takes them a little
1:00:12
Speaker 4: bit to adjust to it.
1:00:13
Speaker 2: So interesting view from Evan.
1:00:15
Speaker 4: Obviously it's a nothing trend, right, It's four games, so
1:00:17
Speaker 4: I get his point of like, it doesn't really make
1:00:20
Speaker 4: much sense, but I just love the angle of Eagles
1:00:23
Speaker 4: first half, Chiefs full game.
1:00:25
Speaker 1: All right, listen, this was our super Bowl podcast. Thank
1:00:28
Speaker 1: you Brandon, thank you Evan Simon and I are a
1:00:33
Speaker 1: men filled with the men's gratitude for both you and
1:00:35
Speaker 1: Gifford and Matt Mitchell and everybody who listened all season long.
1:00:41
Speaker 1: We are rolling with the Chiefs into the Super Bowl.
1:00:44
Speaker 1: We are on the under. That's our big balls. We
1:00:48
Speaker 1: will be back with our post super Bowl wrap up
1:00:54
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