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Crypto Rotation Begins?🚀Bitwise Matt Hougan INTERVIEW · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Has the crypto rotation begun? And what is the market
0:03
Speaker 1: going to do after Trump's pivot. Well, we're going to
0:05
Speaker 1: break all that down for you today, and I do
0:07
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0:40
Speaker 1: of course, just bring in our guests today, and that
0:42
Speaker 1: is mister Matt Hogan coming in from bit wise. How
0:45
Speaker 1: are you.
0:46
Speaker 2: I'm doing well, Paul.
0:47
Speaker 1: How are you nice to see you? Excellent? Is the day.
0:50
Speaker 1: I go to bed yesterday early, thinking it was going
0:54
Speaker 1: to be a nice, little somber evening and then Trump,
0:59
Speaker 1: you know, throws the gauntlet down with the banks. I
1:02
Speaker 1: don't know, it's crazy. You put out a statement though
1:06
Speaker 1: the weekend that changed finance. This was a good article.
1:09
Speaker 1: If you guys didn't get a chance to read it,
1:11
Speaker 1: give me your position here because I'm kind of on
1:13
Speaker 1: the fence on this one. You know what happened? Why
1:17
Speaker 1: you think this really starts to change capital markets in general?
1:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, so what happened? Thanks for calling out the article.
1:24
Speaker 3: What happened is at two thirty am on Sunday, as
1:28
Speaker 3: we know, President Trump announced that we were bombing Iran
1:32
Speaker 3: and started major combat operations over there. And the point
1:36
Speaker 3: of the article was two thirty am is a very
1:38
Speaker 3: odd time in financial markets. The US stock market is closed,
1:42
Speaker 3: the US futures market is closed, Asia's closed, Europe is closed.
1:47
Speaker 3: The only thing that's opened our few small Middle Eastern
1:50
Speaker 3: stock markets. And what we saw was that traders turned
1:55
Speaker 3: to DeFi and specifically to hyper liquid, to trade not
1:59
Speaker 3: just crypto, but to trade oil, to trade gold, to
2:03
Speaker 3: trade other assets. And the point I was making is
2:06
Speaker 3: this opens a massive door if you're a macro hedge fund,
2:09
Speaker 3: if you're an international trader, and you saw that your
2:12
Speaker 3: peers were able to position immediately in response to the
2:16
Speaker 3: developments in Iran while you were not you're in trouble, right,
2:20
Speaker 3: so you're going to have to create a stable coin wallet,
2:23
Speaker 3: You're going to have to fund that wallet, You're going
2:25
Speaker 3: to have to learn how to trade on hyper liquid.
2:27
Speaker 2: I've seen this before.
2:28
Speaker 3: If you go back to the global financial crisis in
2:30
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight, that was the first moment where
2:33
Speaker 3: bond ETFs really shined because traditional mutual funds couldn't process
2:38
Speaker 3: redemptions because the prices were crazy, but bond ETFs traded
2:43
Speaker 3: just like they were supposed to. They became the focus,
2:46
Speaker 3: and the next year etf volumes went up forty percent,
2:49
Speaker 3: and the next year they got above a trillion, and
2:51
Speaker 3: today they're thirty trillion dollars. Sometimes you need this crisis
2:55
Speaker 3: to force people to do a new rail, but once
2:58
Speaker 3: they do it, they don't come back. So I do
3:00
Speaker 3: think it was a big moment for crypto well, and to.
3:03
Speaker 1: Your point, some people would argue, well, there's two things
3:06
Speaker 1: I want to hit on. One of course, is though hyper
3:09
Speaker 1: liquid was I think a big catalystier Also, you have
3:12
Speaker 1: to think about it from the stance of prediction markets,
3:14
Speaker 1: because polymarket equally had access into where you could be
3:19
Speaker 1: making a lot of plays in that route, which is
3:21
Speaker 1: the other area that's growing pretty rapidly right now in
3:25
Speaker 1: crypto in general. But when you look at this and
3:28
Speaker 1: people would I think would argue in the traditional markets, well, wait, Matt,
3:32
Speaker 1: these markets might still be unstable, but maybe now we
3:37
Speaker 1: have analysts that have a chance to review the data
3:39
Speaker 1: or review the information, and maybe that liquidity that exchanged
3:43
Speaker 1: hands really didn't matter on Monday morning when the market's opened.
3:47
Speaker 1: How would you argue against that? If somebody was saying, well,
3:50
Speaker 1: traditional markets still have that buffer zone, yeah.
3:53
Speaker 2: Well that's I mean, that's exactly how innovation happens. It's
3:57
Speaker 2: absolutely true that hyper.
3:58
Speaker 3: Liquid is not as well established, secure et cetera as CME,
4:03
Speaker 3: and people are taking additional risks trading there.
4:06
Speaker 2: And the point I was making is you have to
4:08
Speaker 2: have an extraordinary situation to make you take those risks.
4:12
Speaker 2: But that's what you saw this weekend.
4:15
Speaker 3: And for the hedge fund that's looking to protect its
4:18
Speaker 3: P and L, it's just an easy choice. Would you
4:21
Speaker 3: rather be able to react or would you rather not
4:24
Speaker 3: be able to react? One hundred times out of one
4:27
Speaker 3: hundred they will choose being able to react. And I've
4:30
Speaker 3: just heard it from tradfive for too long. People don't
4:32
Speaker 3: want to trade twenty four to seven. You're right, except
4:35
Speaker 3: for when they have to, and this was an example
4:38
Speaker 3: of they had to. And once you open that door
4:41
Speaker 3: a little bit, then you start exploring these things, then
4:44
Speaker 3: you're through the infrastructure, then you're onboarded, so they can
4:48
Speaker 3: think what you can't put the genie back.
4:51
Speaker 1: Do you think this is a long term process to
4:54
Speaker 1: get this done or do you think this is something
4:57
Speaker 1: especially with clarity maybe on the verge of going through
5:00
Speaker 1: through in the next few months, that this could pivot
5:03
Speaker 1: really quickly for the markets and we can see this
5:05
Speaker 1: maybe in six months.
5:07
Speaker 3: A great, really great question. Look, I think it's an
5:09
Speaker 3: exponential growth curve. And the thing about exponential growth curves
5:12
Speaker 3: is that you don't really notice them at first. So
5:15
Speaker 3: what did you know? What did hyper liquid do on
5:18
Speaker 3: oil volumes? Half a million dollars or something that's like
5:20
Speaker 3: a drop in the bucket. But the next time, when
5:24
Speaker 3: all these hedge funds are on board, they'll do maybe
5:27
Speaker 3: five billion dollars in volume, and then the next that's
5:30
Speaker 3: what we're going to see. So it's not like we're
5:31
Speaker 3: going to wake up and it's all going to be
5:33
Speaker 3: hyper liquid. It's not going to be CME. It's just
5:36
Speaker 3: you've started this again. I'll go back to my ETF
5:39
Speaker 3: example and a great global financial crisis. ETFs still aren't as
5:44
Speaker 3: big as mutual funds, but boy are they.
5:46
Speaker 2: Hunting them down. And that was the catalyst that like
5:48
Speaker 2: put them on that growth path. Right.
5:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, step function is definitely the key here when you
5:54
Speaker 1: look at the issue right now around private markets. And
5:59
Speaker 1: I want to show case a tweet you put out,
6:02
Speaker 1: I wonder if the real risk of AI disruption for
6:04
Speaker 1: most investors is that public companies are being disrupted by
6:08
Speaker 1: private companies. So you look at that. Then you can
6:12
Speaker 1: look at pre stocks over here. There's Poper Lucky and Andrel,
6:16
Speaker 1: there's Anthropic cal Sheet and so on. I mean, these
6:19
Speaker 1: are these private companies right now out there trading on
6:22
Speaker 1: pre stocks. What do you think this is going to
6:24
Speaker 1: look like in terms of exposure? What should someone have
6:27
Speaker 1: in terms of exposure on something like this?
6:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, the answer is not zero. Right. The point I
6:33
Speaker 2: was making is that, Look, I.
6:34
Speaker 3: Think AI is going to be great for the economy.
6:36
Speaker 3: I think it's going to catalyze growth. I think the
6:38
Speaker 3: global economy will be bigger as a result of AI.
6:41
Speaker 3: But if you're only in the public markets, you may
6:44
Speaker 3: only feel half of that. You may only feel disruption.
6:48
Speaker 3: If we go if we make an analogy to like
6:49
Speaker 3: the Internet, Amazon was public and you could invest in
6:53
Speaker 3: how it was disrupting traditional retail. But imagine it wasn't
6:57
Speaker 3: public and all you could own was was cs and
7:01
Speaker 3: you know, coals, et cetera. You didn't benefit from that upside,
7:05
Speaker 3: and that would have been a real loss. So I
7:07
Speaker 3: think the answer is not zero. Most people have zero
7:09
Speaker 3: exposure because it's expensive, it's hard, it's not as liquid,
7:14
Speaker 3: it's not as easy to access. But I think there's
7:16
Speaker 3: a case to be made that the quantity of growth
7:19
Speaker 3: is so large that many people should think about overcoming
7:24
Speaker 3: those hurdles to get some exposure, at least not be
7:26
Speaker 3: on zero.
7:27
Speaker 2: I do think that's a real.
7:28
Speaker 1: Well, Okay, zero is not a good number, Matt, so good?
7:32
Speaker 1: What is that? Two? Five, three?
7:35
Speaker 4: Sure?
7:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, five five is not an unreasonable number. I think that.
7:40
Speaker 2: But the thing is that ninety nine point nine percent
7:43
Speaker 2: of investors are at zero right. This is this is
7:47
Speaker 2: almost like like crypto five years ago, pre ETF, everyone
7:51
Speaker 2: was at zero and you were like, please Lord, get
7:54
Speaker 2: to one and now it's like five.
7:57
Speaker 3: I think it's the same thing on private market. It's
7:59
Speaker 3: basically everyone is at zero because it's complex, it's confusing,
8:02
Speaker 3: et cetera.
8:04
Speaker 2: Maybe zero is the wrong number.
8:05
Speaker 3: One you have a disruption of the size and scale
8:08
Speaker 3: of AI. So is it five percent? That would be
8:10
Speaker 3: a great starting point.
8:12
Speaker 1: I like it. Let's talk about boomers. Maybe they're back.
8:15
Speaker 1: Here's Eric over at Bloomberg. He's talking about another solid
8:18
Speaker 1: inflow day on bitcoin ETFs. Now amazing, considering us down
8:22
Speaker 1: twenty two on the year, fifty total on the decline
8:26
Speaker 1: crypto Twitter, call your parents, Dell there, Thank you. I
8:30
Speaker 1: love it.
8:32
Speaker 2: Eric, Great, he's.
8:34
Speaker 1: Got some good takes on that. Are they back? Do
8:37
Speaker 1: you think they're back? Are they coming in now? Back
8:39
Speaker 1: to the bitcoin ETFs?
8:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think they almost never left.
8:45
Speaker 3: The thing about bitcoin ETFs is they're really three investors.
8:48
Speaker 3: There's hedge funds running the basis trade, there are attention
8:51
Speaker 3: investors who go to the spotty shiny thing, and then
8:54
Speaker 3: they're long term allocators. I actually think the long term
8:56
Speaker 3: allocators were accumulating even while we saw inflows. Yeah, it's
9:01
Speaker 3: just the basis trade disappeared. And everyone was chasing gold
9:06
Speaker 3: or AI stocks. I think what we're seeing here is
9:08
Speaker 3: the basis trade is coming back again. The attention is
9:12
Speaker 3: focusing maybe again on crypto, so those are not papering
9:15
Speaker 3: over the long term accumulation. But yeah, I mean, the
9:18
Speaker 3: boomers are why bitcoin is not down seventy five percent.
9:22
Speaker 3: It would be down much worse.
9:23
Speaker 2: If they want here. But I do think we'll start
9:26
Speaker 2: to see flows pick up from here.
9:28
Speaker 1: Well, you also had, you know, I think the big
9:30
Speaker 1: news of the day was Trump pivoting and slamming the
9:33
Speaker 1: banks now over the disable one dispute. He has blasted
9:38
Speaker 1: them pretty heavily. And then, of course, I don't know
9:41
Speaker 1: if you can credit this or what's going on in
9:44
Speaker 1: Iran and a flight to safety both on gold, even
9:47
Speaker 1: though we did see gold retrace down and bitcoin move up,
9:51
Speaker 1: kind of a rotation of assets right there. Bitcoin trading,
9:54
Speaker 1: as we're recording, hovering around the seventy three to seventy
9:57
Speaker 1: four K range up considerably. Do you think that was
10:01
Speaker 1: the reason we're starting to see market movement? Is that
10:03
Speaker 1: Trump finally picked a side.
10:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was. I think it was one
10:07
Speaker 2: of the reasons.
10:08
Speaker 3: I think there are some other reasons going back in time,
10:11
Speaker 3: but it was the latest catalyst and it's really significant.
10:13
Speaker 3: I mean, his post on truth social was amazing. I
10:17
Speaker 3: was like he had two kids that were fighting and
10:19
Speaker 3: he told the big one to stop picking on the
10:21
Speaker 3: little one and let it have a fair, fair take.
10:24
Speaker 3: I do think that that was in a catalyst. You
10:26
Speaker 3: saw the Clarity Act odds on poly market jump from
10:29
Speaker 3: sixty two to seventy eight percent. Obviously, the Clarity Act
10:33
Speaker 3: is really important to the long term growth of crypto.
10:36
Speaker 3: And if you look underneath the surface, right last I looked,
10:38
Speaker 3: Eth was up like a little.
10:40
Speaker 2: Bit more than Bitcoin. That's saying there's some news there.
10:43
Speaker 3: So I think that was an extraordinary statement and extraordinarily
10:46
Speaker 3: positive for crypto.
10:47
Speaker 2: And yeah, it's why we're up, you know, seven eight
10:49
Speaker 2: percent today.
10:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at tweet we put out from the network.
10:53
Speaker 1: Here Paul Trump declares warm banks the bottom is in.
10:59
Speaker 1: So here's a question, Yes, Clarity is the bottom signal
11:02
Speaker 1: or no, we get one more drop. What would you
11:04
Speaker 1: select there?
11:06
Speaker 2: MM?
11:07
Speaker 3: If I had to pick, I would I guess I
11:11
Speaker 3: would pick Clarity as the bottom signal.
11:13
Speaker 2: Okay, that doesn't mean I think we go straight up
11:15
Speaker 2: from here.
11:15
Speaker 3: It just means that I don't think we we we
11:18
Speaker 3: broach sixty again.
11:20
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I.
11:22
Speaker 3: Think I think we're in in the bottoming phase, like
11:25
Speaker 3: maybe that maybe the local bottom is in.
11:28
Speaker 2: But could we pull back? Of course we could pull back.
11:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, but look, I have every confidence that we're going higher,
11:34
Speaker 3: you know, over the next twelve months.
11:36
Speaker 1: Well you like that. I mean, think the fact that
11:39
Speaker 1: this is close. It's closer than I think a lot
11:40
Speaker 1: of people and we only had two hundred votes in
11:42
Speaker 1: this one, but still this will probably run a little
11:45
Speaker 1: bit before pants. I'm gonna let them see how that
11:49
Speaker 1: plant pans out tomorrow because that'll be something to go
11:52
Speaker 1: back and look at. Hey, I want to play a
11:54
Speaker 1: clip from Tom Lee because he thinks there's been a
11:58
Speaker 1: little bit of a change the market. I want to
12:00
Speaker 1: get your opinion. Take a look.
12:02
Speaker 4: I don't think anyone can say we're bottom jet, but
12:06
Speaker 4: this is what looks like the makings of a bottom.
12:08
Speaker 4: Right that you get bad news and the markets are
12:11
Speaker 4: taking it in stride. And more importantly, I think we've
12:14
Speaker 4: had a position reset and so on the other side
12:18
Speaker 4: of this, I think is going to be a lot
12:19
Speaker 4: of opportunity.
12:20
Speaker 1: What would give me the confidence to say, you know what,
12:22
Speaker 1: that's a sign of a bottom. What do you need
12:24
Speaker 1: to see?
12:25
Speaker 4: Another sign would be we get another scary headline and
12:29
Speaker 4: gold continues to sell off, and then stocks actually turned
12:32
Speaker 4: green on the day, because that means we've washed things out.
12:34
Speaker 4: I think we're pretty close.
12:36
Speaker 1: All right. So there's again back to the rotation. You
12:39
Speaker 1: know that Tom is kind of hitting on gold selling off,
12:42
Speaker 1: which we saw in the charts, some stocks moving. Now
12:45
Speaker 1: we've got bitcoin moving. Then you jump over here to Ted.
12:49
Speaker 1: He's talking about these war related moves Russia crane war started.
12:53
Speaker 1: Bitcoin pumped almost forty. After that, it dumped sixty seven.
12:58
Speaker 1: Now here we are, Iran could pomp towards seventy eight eighty.
13:01
Speaker 1: Some people kind of pointing that direction. We had garethon
13:04
Speaker 1: last week. He was kind of going that direction, but
13:07
Speaker 1: we could see a down trend after that. So maybe
13:09
Speaker 1: to your point, but you don't think sixty or below
13:12
Speaker 1: sixty is in the cart.
13:14
Speaker 2: It's not my base case. No.
13:16
Speaker 3: Again, I think we could pull back, but there's just
13:18
Speaker 3: too much cumulative positive news, and I would build on
13:21
Speaker 3: something Tom said actually to tweak it a little bit.
13:24
Speaker 3: One of my favorite tells of whether we're in a
13:26
Speaker 3: bear market or a bull market is how we react
13:29
Speaker 3: to good news. In a bear market, we ignore good news.
13:33
Speaker 3: Right when Apollo bought MorphOS token, it went up and
13:37
Speaker 3: came right back down. When black Rock pocket Unis token
13:40
Speaker 3: came up, went right back down.
13:41
Speaker 1: Yeah.
13:42
Speaker 3: Today, when we have good news like Trump posting something
13:45
Speaker 3: positive on crypto, we just rip. So we're rewarding good
13:48
Speaker 3: news and that is a real change in investor psychology
13:52
Speaker 3: that you don't usually see during these during the depths
13:57
Speaker 3: of crypto winner. So again, sure to go back down
14:00
Speaker 3: into the sixties, of course. But do I think we're
14:03
Speaker 3: starting to bottom and trend higher. I absolutely think we do.
14:06
Speaker 1: Yeah. ADP February data came in. It beat that looks
14:11
Speaker 1: like the non farm payrolls might prove out, but it
14:14
Speaker 1: could be bad news for rate cuts in general. With
14:18
Speaker 1: rate cut odds, I mean, you don't anticipate a rate
14:20
Speaker 1: cut right now coming in next on the next formc.
14:25
Speaker 3: Maybe not on the next one. I think the world
14:27
Speaker 3: is looking to a worsh rate cut regime. One thing
14:30
Speaker 3: that I would note, there are all these concerns about
14:32
Speaker 3: jobs and inflation from what's happening in Iran. But if
14:36
Speaker 3: you look out it, like what the CMEME is forecasting
14:39
Speaker 3: for rate cuts in December, they haven't changed over the
14:41
Speaker 3: last month. The dominant paradigm here is AI as a
14:45
Speaker 3: deflationary force, and the administration wants lower rates, and I
14:49
Speaker 3: think it will get lower rates.
14:51
Speaker 2: Maybe that changes.
14:52
Speaker 3: If oil like spikes to one fifty, but that's not
14:56
Speaker 3: the base case that most people are operating in right now.
14:58
Speaker 3: So yeah, not next but over time, we're going to
15:01
Speaker 3: get lower rates. This year, it's going to be positive.
15:03
Speaker 2: For risk assets.
15:05
Speaker 1: Are you anticipating some kind of crazy move on oil
15:08
Speaker 1: like that? I mean, we're we're edging up to one
15:10
Speaker 1: hundred dollars a barrel now.
15:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just saying that there's risk.
15:15
Speaker 3: I'm not a geopolitical expert, but rand sits at the
15:18
Speaker 3: Straits of hor moves. They have the drones that could
15:20
Speaker 3: damage oil infrastructure. You can get local spikes for sure,
15:25
Speaker 3: So I think anyone who rules that out of the
15:27
Speaker 3: realm of possibility, okay, is just being too easy on themselves.
15:33
Speaker 2: Yeah.
15:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a crazy world out there, yeah for sure.
15:36
Speaker 1: And I think this lines up with our next clip
15:38
Speaker 1: here because Arthur Hayes kind of mentioned this in his
15:42
Speaker 1: assessment of how and if the FED could make action here.
15:47
Speaker 1: This might be the reason why take a look.
15:50
Speaker 5: The longer this goes and I think the next FED
15:53
Speaker 5: meetings in middle of March, yeah, the more likely it
15:57
Speaker 5: is that the FED is going to have to respond
16:00
Speaker 5: with printed money because you know, people start selling equities,
16:05
Speaker 5: oil prices spike. If Trump decides he wants to send
16:08
Speaker 5: ground troops into Iran for whatever reason, whatever objective he claims,
16:12
Speaker 5: he's going to give those troops, that's going to require
16:16
Speaker 5: a lot of money and a lot of borrowing, and
16:19
Speaker 5: so the FED will have to finance the government.
16:21
Speaker 1: That is the job.
16:22
Speaker 5: If you look at the chart, there's been Republican presidents
16:25
Speaker 5: and Democratic presidents. Every single one of them is in
16:26
Speaker 5: the same thing that protect them at least they will
16:28
Speaker 5: do what's necessary print the money so that the government
16:31
Speaker 5: could spend it to you know, finances war.
16:34
Speaker 2: Am I buying anything right now?
16:36
Speaker 5: No, I'm waiting for that press conference from Jerome Powell saying,
16:40
Speaker 5: you know, due to events, unforeseen events in the Middle
16:43
Speaker 5: East and whatever euphemistic term they want to use for
16:45
Speaker 5: why they're financing the war effort. On behalf of Trump.
16:49
Speaker 1: All right, so there you see it. I mean, that's
16:51
Speaker 1: in the SAT. That's the counter argument of it would take,
16:54
Speaker 1: you know, a major event in the Middle East to
16:56
Speaker 1: put pressure on the FED, regardless of what we're seeing
16:59
Speaker 1: with jobs inflation, because this would require wartime FED reaction,
17:04
Speaker 1: which is a bit different. But to your point, that
17:07
Speaker 1: could drive We could see the spike and oil that
17:09
Speaker 1: could cause those kind of moves. For sure, it.
17:11
Speaker 2: Definitely could cause it.
17:13
Speaker 3: The economy could face challenges and they'd want to respond
17:16
Speaker 3: to that. I also think the broader point that Arthur
17:18
Speaker 3: is making is that in every conflict the government prints
17:22
Speaker 3: money because conflicts are really expensive. Right in the current
17:26
Speaker 3: limited engagement, I think the forecasts are two hundred billion dollars,
17:29
Speaker 3: which is off balance sheet unexpected spending. It's not like
17:32
Speaker 3: we have a pocket in the Pentagon's budget for a
17:36
Speaker 3: new kinetic war each year, right, that is additional spending.
17:39
Speaker 3: So look, you know wars. Wars lead to money printing,
17:44
Speaker 3: which leads to asset price inflation.
17:47
Speaker 2: It's not the.
17:48
Speaker 3: Most important thing to think about vi sevia war, but
17:50
Speaker 3: it always happens, and it will happen again here.
17:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So one other thing I want to
17:57
Speaker 1: hit on, and that is this right here, Kracking. They
18:02
Speaker 1: become the first digital asset bank that has a reserve
18:06
Speaker 1: master count. Now I kind of thought it might be
18:08
Speaker 1: someone else, but Kracking is the one. Does this mean
18:13
Speaker 1: that we are going to see just a number of
18:15
Speaker 1: this approving over the next few months, just boom boom boom. Yeah.
18:20
Speaker 3: I mean, first of all, it's worth noting that this
18:22
Speaker 3: is a massive piece of news. Right People have been
18:24
Speaker 3: trying to get narrow banks even before crypto and then
18:28
Speaker 3: crypto related banks with access to the Fed's master account
18:32
Speaker 3: for you know, decades, and really intensely in crypto for
18:36
Speaker 3: many years, and that door was just completely shut because
18:39
Speaker 3: the regulators didn't want to First they didn't like crypto,
18:43
Speaker 3: then they were worried about unknown risks. This is a
18:46
Speaker 3: really big moment, big deal, a good thing.
18:50
Speaker 2: For the world.
18:52
Speaker 3: I suspect, of course we're going to see everyone follow suit.
18:55
Speaker 3: It's worth noting there's some limitations to the charter that
18:58
Speaker 3: Cracking got. It's provision in many ways, it's limited in
19:01
Speaker 3: its use, but it means the doors open a little bit,
19:05
Speaker 3: and I suspect the door will open more so this
19:08
Speaker 3: is Look, every piece of news tells you that traditional
19:12
Speaker 3: finance and crypto are intersecting. It's in Trump's tweet, it's
19:18
Speaker 3: in this Kraken news, it's in announcements from black Rock,
19:21
Speaker 3: it's an announcements from Apollo. There's just overwhelming evidence that
19:25
Speaker 3: that's going to happen, and that crypto is going to
19:27
Speaker 3: play a really large role as that intersection occurs. So
19:32
Speaker 3: this is just the latest piece of news showing that.
19:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think your point is good because it
19:38
Speaker 1: does start to really create this windfall that could be
19:43
Speaker 1: coming into the mark and timing is so unique here.
19:46
Speaker 1: You've got Clarity lining up. Of course, what's happening in Iran.
19:50
Speaker 1: That's the wildcard because you don't necessarily know how that
19:52
Speaker 1: could play out. At least we have a little bit
19:54
Speaker 1: of a trajectory alignment with Clarity now, especially after Trump's tweet.
19:59
Speaker 1: I mean that really kind of changes the dynamic. Do
20:01
Speaker 1: you think the banks fight back on this in any way?
20:04
Speaker 1: I mean they're setting on the biggest lobby out there,
20:07
Speaker 1: or do they finally say all right, we're going to
20:08
Speaker 1: come to the table and we're going to get this complete.
20:12
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's a really interesting question.
20:14
Speaker 3: I don't know the answer, but my base case is
20:16
Speaker 3: that they come to the table and they get this completed, okay,
20:19
Speaker 3: because they're now exposed to like a much worse outcome
20:24
Speaker 3: than they were at the start of this negotiation, right,
20:26
Speaker 3: and so they now have to cover that flank and
20:29
Speaker 3: accept something that, in a minimum, is where they where
20:33
Speaker 3: they started is probably the best deal they can get now.
20:36
Speaker 3: And they're now in that defensive position. So I think
20:38
Speaker 3: that will force them to come to the table, But
20:41
Speaker 3: you never know. It's worth monitoring, and I'll be happy
20:44
Speaker 3: when it's actually signed.
20:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, no kidding. Hey, listen, I'm going to be listening
20:48
Speaker 1: to a lot of these earnings calls as in their
20:50
Speaker 1: next earning calls how they massage this because I've talked
20:54
Speaker 1: to a lot of people that are investing in banks,
20:57
Speaker 1: and just this issue alone, it's the first time they
21:01
Speaker 1: were even aware that all this was going on, because
21:04
Speaker 1: they're not crypto people. And it was because Trump drew
21:07
Speaker 1: the line and said this is what's happening, and all
21:09
Speaker 1: of a sudden you have media hitting on it, and
21:11
Speaker 1: they're like, wait a minute, what's going on with my
21:13
Speaker 1: bank investment? Over here? These guys are doing what you
21:15
Speaker 1: know so interesting, Now you're going to stocks.
21:21
Speaker 3: I love that point because the banks have spent the
21:23
Speaker 3: last six months saying the sky is falling.
21:25
Speaker 2: If we approve stable coins, our business is over. And
21:28
Speaker 2: now we.
21:29
Speaker 3: Might approved stable coins, so that that story is going
21:31
Speaker 3: to come home to roost for them.
21:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's crazy. Last question to you, all coins. I'm
21:37
Speaker 1: looking at this right here. All coin to season discussion
21:39
Speaker 1: has hit rock bottom on social right now. Historically it
21:43
Speaker 1: has been a strong bicignal before major all coins run.
21:46
Speaker 1: Do you think we are going to see a traditional
21:49
Speaker 1: all coin season out there again or is that game over?
21:55
Speaker 2: I think that game is over.
21:57
Speaker 3: I think we'll see a non traditional all coin season, okay,
22:00
Speaker 3: by which I mean an all coin season that rewards
22:03
Speaker 3: assets with real world traction and real world application. But
22:07
Speaker 3: I don't think we'll see the sort of rising tide
22:09
Speaker 3: lifts all buckets where you rotate from Bitcoin to Ether
22:13
Speaker 3: to DeFi to NFT pictures of rocks. I don't think
22:17
Speaker 3: we're going to get to that level of craziness. But
22:20
Speaker 3: do I think the market may re rate like some
22:24
Speaker 3: DeFi tokens which are trading at billion dollar valuations now
22:28
Speaker 3: and have huge businesses. I absolutely think that's true. I
22:31
Speaker 3: just think it will be more differentiated than previous all
22:35
Speaker 3: coin seasons.
22:36
Speaker 1: I'm in your camp there on that one. Matt. Speaking
22:39
Speaker 1: of that, we got to talk about the lightning round here.
22:41
Speaker 1: Stable coin fight is officially over with Clarity. Do you
22:45
Speaker 1: think that is the case.
22:46
Speaker 3: It's not over yet, so I'll have to say I'll
22:49
Speaker 3: say no, it's almost over.
22:51
Speaker 1: Banks will go for one last push on the Dems
22:54
Speaker 1: since they just lost Trump.
22:57
Speaker 2: I'm going to say no. I think they're just going
22:59
Speaker 2: to try to negotiate to peace.
23:01
Speaker 1: Really, okay, all right, I'm gonna go on.
23:03
Speaker 2: I know, I know, take right, Yeah, I like that.
23:06
Speaker 1: I'm on the I'm the yes, I'm on the yes camp.
23:08
Speaker 1: Just so you guys, I put out the tweet yesterday
23:11
Speaker 1: I said, you know, it was like don.
23:12
Speaker 2: Cardeos, it's a reasonable it's a reasonable take. Maybe I'm
23:17
Speaker 2: just feeling optimistic.
23:18
Speaker 1: Keep your enemies close.
23:21
Speaker 2: It's fair.
23:21
Speaker 1: Fair as I say, Clarity will defeat the final boss,
23:24
Speaker 1: which is Elizabeth Warren possibly Iran and the world Liberty
23:29
Speaker 1: five foot incoming.
23:30
Speaker 2: Well structured question, count me as it. Yes, I think
23:33
Speaker 2: it'll win.
23:34
Speaker 1: All right, there, you go. Clarity wins on that round.
23:37
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that too. Uh, here we go.
23:40
Speaker 1: Let's go with this one right here. Ninety days in
23:41
Speaker 1: Congress will send more money to the Iranian.
23:45
Speaker 2: War here, I mean, yes, they're gone.
23:49
Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna send money, which means it is going to
23:52
Speaker 1: be printing over there. All right. Here was a good one.
23:56
Speaker 1: This is metallic one. Last weekend Ethereum is the ultimate sanctuary.
23:59
Speaker 1: Tach is what he's calling this the hedge against government control, surveillance, wars,
24:03
Speaker 1: AI Corporo, slop, and the social media black boxes. He
24:07
Speaker 1: is all in that eth is the route here.
24:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought I thought that was a good post.
24:15
Speaker 2: It hit a nerve.
24:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, so yes, I think there are a few people
24:19
Speaker 3: I think near also as positioned well in this space.
24:24
Speaker 2: Yep. But sure we'll give it to We'll give it
24:26
Speaker 2: to a talk. He was a good post.
24:27
Speaker 1: No v wins that one. What token is Blackrock most
24:30
Speaker 1: likely to buy? After UNI swap? We've got Ave and
24:33
Speaker 1: Morpho on the deck.
24:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe maybe Ave just because uh just because Apollo
24:40
Speaker 3: went with Morpho.
24:41
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm with Ave as well. I like I mean,
24:46
Speaker 1: I like them both. I think both are very very
24:48
Speaker 1: interesting business models. Morpho a little bit more distributed because
24:52
Speaker 1: of their partnerships, but Ave they could win the defiant
24:56
Speaker 1: angle pretty quickly and get some get some movement, especially
25:00
Speaker 1: if institutional comes in to your point, here we go.
25:03
Speaker 1: Institutions will not like the uncertainty of the Ave Dow
25:06
Speaker 1: drama though. Every quarter do you think they jump in
25:09
Speaker 1: and then go, wait a minute, there's all this Dow
25:11
Speaker 1: drama all the time. I'm out.
25:14
Speaker 2: Ah, I'm a no on this one. I think.
25:18
Speaker 3: Look, I think the net of the Dow drama is
25:21
Speaker 3: things are improving for tokenholders. It's messy and ugly, but
25:25
Speaker 3: but that's I think. What the institution, which is good?
25:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is good? Yeah, definitely there. Let's see what
25:32
Speaker 1: else we got here. I pos or zombies and Clarity
25:34
Speaker 1: will be the bullet to the head.
25:40
Speaker 2: I'll say no. I'll say no on this one.
25:43
Speaker 3: I like the point, but we're gonna have some big
25:46
Speaker 3: I pos in the next year. We're gonna get space X,
25:48
Speaker 3: We're going to get those. But I love the point.
25:51
Speaker 1: Netflix or Netflix right here proves removing uncertainty is about
25:56
Speaker 1: to melt faces. I mean, you look at Netflix. As
25:59
Speaker 1: soon as they're out of the mid on this thing.
26:01
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, their stock is just going ballistic
26:04
Speaker 1: because everybody's like, Okay, now we know where we are,
26:06
Speaker 1: let's go invest.
26:08
Speaker 2: That's a good take. Yeah, I'll go with yes.
26:11
Speaker 1: Okay, we're in the same boat there. We like yes
26:15
Speaker 1: on Netflix is in uh. Bitcoin is going into a
26:18
Speaker 1: narrative slumber after golds rising, quantum threats, no way take,
26:24
Speaker 1: no way, fague news. Okay, I'm with you. I'm kind
26:29
Speaker 1: of on the side. I'm in the middle there. I
26:31
Speaker 1: feel like this is going to move a little slow,
26:32
Speaker 1: but I like it. Solana is the best hedge on
26:35
Speaker 1: ethereum right now, moving too slow?
26:37
Speaker 2: Agreed, Yes, okay, same with Ye and Steal.
26:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, liking it. Liking it. Kathy would converts the ARC
26:46
Speaker 1: fund into a DeFi fault.
26:50
Speaker 2: Great idea, but no, you're not going to do it.
26:53
Speaker 2: Who would? Who would do the idea? Yeah? Maybe I should.
26:57
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I bet bit Wise might do that.
27:00
Speaker 2: We love the vault structure we're building there.
27:04
Speaker 1: There you go, Hey man, I can always fun chatting
27:07
Speaker 1: with you. Thank you so much for coming in today.
27:09
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
27:10
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, man, This was fun.
27:19
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27:21
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27:25
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