Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Dahl Thursday! Episode 3 - All Things PSA Grading
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, Jheremy: you Jaba: more importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. And it is Thursday, so you guys know what that means. We are joined by Andrew Dahl at Dahl DoesCards at Prospect Pulse, prospectpulse v1.com. The founder of Prospect Pulse, and this is what our third third episode together now. So we're we're really starting to rack up the numbers there. Jheremy: You know? Jaba: This is always one of our most popular episodes of the week. Certainly makes sense. And yeah, so today we're going to focus a lot. We're gonna talk a lot about grading. Gonna talk a bit about sniping. I'm gonna ask Dahl how he uses the site to get the best snipes. I'll talk about how I use it, although he probably has it refined to more of a science than I do. So we'll talk about that a little bit and as usual we'll kind Jheremy: you Jaba: of just see where the conversation goes. A lot of stuff just pops up as we're going and I think that some people have mentioned that they like, you know, the free flowing nature of things. So, with that being said, Dahl has sent Jeremy and I a chart comparing twenty twenty four PSA data across the three Bowman releases, comparing twenty four to twenty twenty five. And I'll just let you Dahl I'll I'll just let you say what your immediate thoughts are on it, what stands out and how you see the data. Dahl: Yeah, absolutely. before I get into that, I wanna also say that I've come prepared with some questions for both you and Jeremy as well today and want your opinions Jaba: That's a sneak attack. Dahl: as it is. You you've done that to me the past few weeks, so I'm firing back. It's time for my retaliation. Jheremy: Yeah Dahl: but over the past few years Jaba: We hung up last week and you were It's like Steve Buskemi in that movie where Billy Madison where he's writing with the lipstick. Yeah. Anyhow, sorry. Jheremy: He just crosses our names off. Man, I'm glad I called that guy. Dahl: Yeah. Well, when when we first discussed doing like an episode on grading, I was more than happy to discuss the data, but over the past few years I haven't been as into grading as I once was. Back in twenty twenty four I would grade pretty much every card I got if I felt in met a certain threshold. But with certain delays, price increases and stuff like that, it's become a little bit harder for me to commit to sending a card away for so so long. So that's why I have some Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: questions for both of you as well. once we get into the data and kinda go from there. Jaba: Sure. Dahl: kind of started mostly with like twenty twenty four. Feel like that's had enough time to kinda to pop in grade. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: So starting back in twenty twenty four Bowman, there's a s almost sixty percent gem rate across Over twenty seven thousand cards graded for Chrome Prospect Autographs. That's kind of slowly trickled down. It went from fifty nine percent in Bowman to fifty percent in Bowman Chrome, forty nine percent in Bowman Draft, and then we get to twenty twenty five Bowman and we're looking at a thirty nine percent gem rate, followed by a forty percent gem rate in Bowman Chrome, and then a little bounce back in Bowman draft at forty seven percent, which which isn't isn't too too bad, but still puts it lower than any release in in twenty twenty four. and then, Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: you know, it's pretty early in the in the year for any twenty twenty six releases, but we're looking at like a thirty-four percent gem rate in twenty twenty-six Bowman at this point in time. Jaba: Yeah, ear early returns are scary. Dahl: For sure. Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: And it kinda speaks to something I've seen a lot of people kind of mentioning online or in the Discord about quality control. Feels like it's getting a little bit worse. It's harder to find these these candidates to grade because of certain issues Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: with the cards. And I know we've spoken about this before as well, where there's certain cards where there's almost an expectation of a dimple that automatically prohibits you from getting a PSA ten. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, and I I think even within certain players you can notice trends. I know Jeremy has a few, but before he talks about them, I'm a big wielder delise guy, I think everyone knows that. I've probably gotten fifteen blues of his. I don't know like if he was holding the whole stack and dropped them all on the bottom right corner. But to varying degrees, pretty much all of them that bottom right corner's messed up a little bit. I've still sent like half of them. Like some of them are basically totally fine, some are like horrific looking and most of them it's like, okay, well that probably precludes it from being a ten. But, you know, everything else looks fine. Like Taton Jheremy: Pfft. Jaba: Gray in Bowman Draft, Taton Gray was gonna be a guy that I chased really heavily And then his cards, the centering i is the the worst I've ever seen for an individual player. I know the true gold bookend fifty out of fifty because it it just kept sitting on eBay like all year. His his arm is like off the card, like there's no border on the right side. And it it's across all of his color basically. And now it's like true blues of Taton Grey sell for like two hundred to three hundred raw. And off the top of my head, I think tens do like twelve hundred dollars. And that's true for most of his color, because usually we just kinda slap Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: on like a two X now that there's a little bit less getting graded, maybe you wanna call it two point five. But he's like guys like that, it's like a five to six X, which is crazy. And I'm sure as you get into like oranges, it's probably not six X, because that would be crazy. But it is like an opportunity where you think, Okay, well if I know this guy has bad cards, like I kinda wanna stash away a ten because Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: That's just gonna get more and more valuable with time. But Jeremy, I'll let you talk about 'cause you had mentioned before we started recording a few names where that trend is true. Jheremy: Yeah, there's just kind of looking buying looking at all the eBay searches like Andre Hidalgo from this new stuff like his true golds are all like brutally miscut. They're all heavy left. I don't know how but they're all bad. Like I got one in that I'm like, it looked good in the photo is a really bad photo. Shadows all over it. Not only was it off center east west also north south. It had dimples. It had a print line across his head and it had a scratch on it and like that's not great. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: And I remember Jordan Yost was running on what not and somebody asked, I think it was Pookie even like, Hey, how's that upper right corner? And they're like, yep, the dimples are there. And then you go look at some on eBay and it's like every one of his 499 autos have a dimple in the upper right. And it just makes it tough. The more you like try to get in on certain guys, because 499s are like one of the quote unquote true colors that people like. It's a cheap, affordable option. Not going to get into it too expensive, but like. What's the point if you can't grade it, if you're looking to try to move it for big money. And not that you can't make money off of a raw card by any means, because I don't grade. But I just like, just knowing that it's clean, because that's what people are looking for when you go to resell them as well. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, and Jeremy, you had mentioned yesterday, you know, one of our little tips Jheremy: . Jaba: we came up when we were talking with Bob on the fly really. we were talking about being able to buy those twenty dollar base autos that call it fifteen bucks. But we were Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: saying even there, if it's fifteen bucks, if it's decently under market, but if it doesn't look good, like you're gonna have an equally difficult time moving it. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: It it it's not gonna be worth the stress, time and energy because even though you get a little bit of a deal, the effort you have to put into moving that and ultimately you probably won't get full market. So it was one of those really small money and time savers where even with base cards, i if they and I'm not saying like minor issues, but if it doesn't look good, even if you're getting it half off, it's probably just Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: not worth the not worth the effort. Jheremy: No, definitely not. Especially the way people are with their cards now. Like, it's the eye appeal of it. Like a dimple, sure. But like when you said, Tate and Grey, half of his body's off the card, like, what's the point? Jaba: Yeah, I I think the centering immediately is usually the biggest turn off. Especially Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: for me, because when I'm buying a ton after release with the thought of grading, it's basically like catch and release fishing for me. You know, I'll buy as much premium color as I can. I'll go through it and I'll when I'm when I'm looking at it online, really the only thing you can tell is centering or if something otherwise Jheremy: Right. Jaba: is super messed up. And then I get most of it in and it's like, okay, the centering's usually what I thought, but then that's when things like corner damage or scratch on the back usually pop up. And then at that point I'll just kind of try to throw back on eBay and get a little bit of my money back. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know, speaking candidly here, I'm, you know, willing to I mean, not that I'm committing a crime, but if any of my listeners are looking at some of my stuff up on eBay right now, probably not gradable. So that's a little tip if you're listening. It it's not terrible, but it's it didn't pass my test. But you know, I I think centering's like the easiest one to tell in a picture, right? But even e Jheremy: Right. And you want to have that expectation of a new product to still be clean, less hands, like print line maybe, but you're not going to get like the scratches and gouges and then it still comes in Jaba: Right. Jheremy: and you're like, well, I guess, I guess he was chewing on the card while signing all the other ones because it's still not clean. So. Jaba: Yeah, and I will say having really ramped up my buying going into twenty twenty six, twenty twenty six Bowman was a disaster. Like even the stuff that kind of passed that initial okay, the centering looks good enough, most of the ones that came in there was a different problem with. I really didn't end up sending much of anything. Twenty six chrome has definitely been better. I don't know how much of that is me now having a firm strategy where I'm like, okay, I'm just gonna go bananas the first couple of weeks. but I I will say twenty six Bowman chrome has been better. I probably got like a hundred cards and I'd say seventy percent of them are worth sending at least. And I think within that if I get a fifty percent gem rate I'll be happy. But it it does seem a bit better. And the the last thing I wanna say and then I'll let you guys kind of take over here. 25 Bowman Dahl noted that the gem rate in 25 Bowman was 39. Bowman Chrome was forty and draft was forty seven. I think a lot of people something they'll remember is that back bottom right corner. For whatever reason last year they decided to fill that in with the team color. So if the back corner had any sort of ding on it, Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: it wasn't hard to see. It was just super obvious. And they obviously realized that that was an issue because they fixed that ahead of Bowman draft. So I do think that that's why it probably went from thirty nine and forty up to forty seven. I don't think it was them actively improving the quality or the quality control. I think that it was purely that they did something kind of stupid and then they fixed it. Jheremy: Yep. Yeah, that was definitely like public outcry there. People were had their all up in arms about it. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause even like Kern was talking about it, a lot of the whales where they might actually I'm not sure P er bo tops listens to anybody, but if they're gonna listen to someone it's the people like that. So Dahl: Yep. I think that's a good point. And I think it is important to continue to like voice your concerns about it as well. Even if it doesn't make an immediate impact, the more people that speak up about it, the more likely it is to change. I mean, we're looking Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: at players like Charlie Condon has a sixteen percent gem rate in twenty twenty five Bowman. He has a thousand and two hundred and twenty two cards graded and only two hundred and one top ten. That's crazy. Jaba: That is crazy. Dahl: sixteen percent f of your product or a specific player gems, that's pretty poor in my opinion. and it's not Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: just like it's not universal to him either. Like Malcolm Moore had a nineteen percent gem rate. Gary Gilhill has a twenty one percent gem rate. George Jaba: Mm-hmm. Dahl: Clausen has a twenty two percent gem rate. It's like there's so many players in that release that just had such poor card conditions and The grades definitely reflect that. Jaba: Yeah, and it it's not even like we're saying, like all these cards should come out perfect. But there's a big big area between all these cards should look perfect and sixteen percent gem rate. You know, I I I think at a bare minimum I think you should expect at least at release, like forty percent of these cards to look perfect. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I don't think that that's asking for too much and I I I think frankly you probably don't want the gem rate going above like forty five percent. just in terms of keeping the value there and not getting in you know I guess deflation. It's like Har Harvard where everyone gets A's. Jheremy: Heh. Jaba: but not Boston College. Not Boston College, at least I didn't get a ton. I got some. Ecoscience Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: or geology. Dahl: Hey, don't sell yourself short, man. That's the Harvard of Boston right there. Jaba: That i that's Jheremy: you Jaba: the Harvard of the Boston suburbs, not named Campbridge. Jheremy: Yeah Dahl: God. I agree. I don't think you're being unrealistic or unreasonable with an expectation of like Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: forty percent. Like I think it it it speaks a lot to just the quality of these cards. If less than a fifth of them are even candidates for a for a ten, that's kind of concerning, right? Like there's that tells me there's some issue going on that should be corrected. and hopefully it's something that as we continue to progress forward th they refine their techniques and get to the point where you stop having issues with dimples, with like silly decisions to put team colors in the bottom corners to like reflect that that whitening or c corner softening, you know? So I I think like we're all kinda like learning each and every day and trying to be better and I Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: think that applies to tops as well. I don't I don't have any reason to believe they're malicious in their their production. I think that it's a newer like process for them in the fact that Fanatics just took over not that long ago Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: and hopefully as they continue to work through the different releases things get better. And it looks like, you know, last year we saw that bounce back in draft up from Jheremy: Yep. Dahl: thirty nine, forty percent in Bowman Bowman Chrome up to almost fifty percent Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: in draft. So Jaba: Yeah, because I mean they they they really could have just been like, okay, you know, they they could have kinda just ignored that and then just kinda continued pumping it out that way and just said, Okay, well, we're two thirds of the way through, we're just gonna keep everything the same. I do think that's a good point. I mean I think that you can complain about a lot of things with Michael Rubin. I think you can say that he's a bit of a weird guy. But I do think that they are a very good thing for the hobby. And again, there are a lot of things that are bad. You know, the allocation, the ability to get product, that's really moving in a pretty disgraceful direction. But as far as innovation, marketing cards and building cards is like a real thing, I I think even the biggest haters of that guy can say, okay, this has been a massive, massive victory in that sense. So Jheremy: No. Jaba: I I I do think you're pretty spot on there and saying, Yeah, of course, fanatics and tops aren't gonna, you know, listen to every single complaint and they still do plenty of things wrong. But I think that they do care about general issues and I think that They do want the product to be as good as possible in a you know in a micro sense. I I think that they do want to continue putting out good product, and I think you know, seeing them fix that corner or things like that, and hopefully they Jheremy: you Jaba: get a better design next year. Because I I really just don't like the 26 Bowman design. It's grown on me to a point where I'm like, okay, it's fine, but you know, when I look back at 24 and 25 Bowman's, it's just so much nicer. So Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: I'm at a point now where it's become such a big part of I'm gonna be like living and dying waiting for that waiting for that design drop. Jheremy: by the design. Somebody said it looked like Dahl: Yeah. Jheremy: a a panini prism card and now you can't unsee it once you hear it. Like, yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. Dahl: Mm-hmm. Jaba: And those are just the ugliest cards ever. I mean, I know that they're popular, like for older basketball, but I I I don't I don't see it. I think Jheremy: Okay Jaba: it looks cheap and crappy and ugly. Jheremy: The one thing I'd be curious to see, and I guess you have Bowman U from years past. Now that they're doing like basketball last year, football this year, I'd just be curious how their gem rates there correlate to the baseball. See if it's an Jaba: Mm-hmm. Jheremy: overall issue or I don't know how it would be different. I assume they're all printed on the same machine, but I'd be curious overall. Jaba: Yeah. And it's funny you mentioned the other Bowman's doll yesterday when we were talking to Bob. Jeremy asked him, he was like, Are you worried anyone's just gonna show up with like a bunch of Bowman football? And Bob Jheremy: Bomanian or like 1989 Boman Jaba: Said there was one guy who basically asked if he could bring a bunch of basketball and football, and he was kind of like, you know, I'm not gonna tell you not to, but I I don't think that that's the best Jheremy: If Jaba: use of your time. It's like it's probably not gonna be particularly fruitful. So I'll be curious if there's a guy just sitting in the corner pissed off with a stack of AJ DeBanza paper firsts. But Jheremy: Hey, if you can cheat them, people will buy them. That's all that matters. Jaba: Yeah, you know, you might have an advantage, the scarcity. But yeah, Jheremy: great. Jaba: I mean I I think like like I said, I've been grading a lot recently. I think for me when they started to push out the timelines and move up the money I was kinda like, Okay, well I'm not doing this anymore because I think that that that sucks and I just don't wanna deal with that. And then after a few months I realized, you know, cards over a certain value, you just kinda have to keep submitting and even if it cuts into the expected value margins a little bit. I think if you're working above, you know, call it two hundred dollar cards, I it still just makes a ton of sense if you think you can get like a forty percent gem rate, even fifty. because candidly for me, I think grading with PSA is probably my single best way of making money. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: At least compared to the effort, I think during the season I think grinding streams on whatnot can go well. But I I think grading in terms of the effort you have to put in, I do think that it is still the absolute best way to make money as long as you have some idea what you're doing. And I do think it's daunting to a lot of people. I know for me, when I got into cards, for like a year and a half, I never sent a submission to PSA, even though I got a membership I was paying the two hundred a year, although you do get free card ladder. So it's Basically just like paying for card ladder. It's daunting on the website 'cause there's all those steps they're telling you, Hey, if you mess this up, it's gonna be a charge. If you mess that up, it's gonna be a charge. But I do think it's really one of those things where once you do it once or twice, it is very simple and it looks a lot less daunting. And I think if any people are facing those roadblocks, I'd be happy to talk to you, you know, get on a phone call or just text about it. I think for me, once you do it a little bit, it gets a lot less daunting and I can talk more about kind of the process. for me more in depth later on. But really, I mean it's just I get I get in, I look at under a light box, you know, I'll wipe the surface. I think a lot of people think that it's rocket science. It's really not. I really don't use any of those products or anything. I the the spray, I know you're probably not supposed to talk about it, but like I I use that Kurtz spray sometimes because it's good at getting like little you know, dust particles and stuff off. Jheremy: Promises. Jaba: But it it it's not like you gotta spend like 30 minutes. Like I I don't use a jeweler's loop because I think if I did I would just be agonizing over every single little thing. but really I think it's one of those things where once you do it a couple times you really just learn so much about the process, what they look for, and it it it gets a lot easier. So if you're someone who's in a spot where you're like I wanna start grading but it's overwhelming, please feel free to reach out to me any time, I'll talk you through it. It's it's not that bad. It's like riding a bike, really. I mean I I've been sending like two submissions a week since Chrome came out. And other than being, you know, a little bit of time, it's you know, it's valuable and good. But Jheremy: Love it. Dahl: I think like Jaba: what are your what are your heaters for us? Dahl: You want some questions? Jheremy: yeah. Dahl: Well, before before I get to the questions, I wanna kinda close this loop because I feel like the reason we we decided on this episode was some some discourse about shimmers and how those might not be as great Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: of a card to grade. But then looking at the numbers, like it Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: seem seems like the the the true colors might be might be the worst in terms of like across the board gem rates. And I'm Kinda curious your Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: thoughts as to whether or not maybe something like a a shimmer or speckle or mini diamond helps to like cover up those minor blummishes, whereas like on a true color, there's no pattern to kind of hide anything and it's so much more apparent when there are those blumishes. Jaba: Yeah, it it's funny because last week we were kinda looking at it in the the glass half empty sense where we were like, Okay, it kinda masks stuff to a normal person's eye and then when it gets there it's gonna get ripped apart by the trained eye. But it seems like it's really just if if we don't see it, they probably won't see it. Which I think goes back to that last point about, yeah, it seems daunting, but it's also not like the super intensive thing, right? Like it's not Like you're gonna miss a ton of stuff and get screwed and waste a bunch of money. I do think it's interesting because I I had agreed with you on the shimmer stuff, and it made a ton of sense. I I would have bet a lot of money that that was correct. But yeah, looking at it now, it it it's pretty much uniformly. The variations are at the top of the gem rights and the true colors. And I actually I was talking to my dad this morning and I was telling him the true blacks I don't know if it's because of like the contrast and the color or what, but true blacks, every little tiny thing is so apparent. And I have a wielder delise in front of me of true black, and it's like I just keep staring at that thing, trying to wipe stuff off, and then it's like I noticed three more things. And it's like the card looks great, but like the surface, it it it's on on the true color, the surface is just so I I dun like magnified almost. And like I have another true gold Sebastian dos Santos that has a little dimple in it, and I've been trying to fix it for like two weeks. And I think if it was a shimmer, you wouldn't even notice it. But the fact Jheremy: Right. Jaba: that it's true color, it's like so pronounced. So, you Dahl: Right. Jaba: know, now that it it's obviously easier to say now that we have the data in front of us, we kind of have the answer key. But I Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: do think that the true color is probably a tougher grade. And then that makes me wonder, yeah, obviously with raw, true color is valued higher than variations for sure and I get why. But it makes me wonder if the premium on true color tens isn't just because people like it more, but if there's more going into it from the side of the gem rates probably lower. And and then it just Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: becomes scarcity supply and demand exercise. Dahl: I think that's a a good like thought process there and wondering if the lower gem rates are causing higher higher multipliers across across the board. I mean I'm just I'm just kinda looking right now. And it's hard to say definitively, right? Because like something that's like numbered twenty five or less is cons usually considered a higher end card. Obviously like the lower tier players it's still kind of even their lowest numbered cards are more of that mid tier to like lower high-end tier. But I'm thinking too, like, you know, we're looking at like orange, black, red gem rates. I'm thinking I wonder if the rates are lower on these because the cards are higher end, so it doesn't really matter the condition, people are gonna send them anyways. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: Keep and I think that's another thing to kind of keep in mind when you're looking at like the releases and gem rates across the board. Like in 2024, Bowman The orange, true orange, has a twenty-five percent gem rate across six hundred and thirty-seven cards graded. Orange Sapphire has fifty-eight percent, orange shimmer has forty-five percent, orange wave has sixty-one percent across eight hundred and ninety cards graded. So it's almost forty percent higher with a higher volume being graded in in that release. And that's pretty universal across the board for all these releases. and it's this is something that I'm gonna I'm gonna publish on the website later today to show you like how it's all laid out and stuff so that way you have visual reference if you're if you're looking for any like help as Jaba: I think that's great. Dahl: we kind of talk through this episode. Because I know like Jheremy: Okay. Dahl: throwing a lot of numbers at at you can get a little overwhelming and there's a lot that we're kinda discussing. So I think it will be a helpful little guide to kind of understand what we're discussing. Jaba: Yeah, I think first of all that's awesome. I think that's a great idea. Especially Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: on a podcast in an audio format, hearing a bunch of numbers thrown at you might not be the easiest way to really like Jheremy: ingest it. Jaba: consume stuff. but I'm gonna I feel I feel like we keep kinda one upping it where it's like that meme where it's like the brain keeps getting bigger. But what I'm gonna say now so you you were saying people just send the true color Even if they think it's gonna be a nine, because it's probably still worth it at that scarcity, like Candidly, I have an alien Rosario True Red I sent out yesterday. Card looks great, it's off center, but I was like, even if this is a nine, I'd rather have it slabbed. Because I think with stuff like that, people are gonna see it. If it's raw, people are gonna be like, then it's probably like a six if you didn't grade that. Like, that's one where I think like a nine is definitely Jheremy: I get really messed up. Jaba: worth it. But to to one up kind of mega brain this, do you think that the gem rate could be lower on those cards? Because you get the people, because generally speaking, you feel like the people buying. Those probably have more money to spend. I wonder how much of that is people getting like a red or an orange and then just resubbing it like four times. Because like that's not something I do. Like I don't have the money to like you know take that shot four times because I I also just don't think it's great practice. Because unless you get what you want. You're just wasting money. But I do wonder how much because you look at some of these like early Otanis and some of the early numbered Otani rookies, the pop count is higher than the print run. Because you'll get somebody who has an eight and then they'll crack it and like, you know, resubmit it. They'll resubmit it. So I I I wonder almost if these gem rates are lower because you get some guy submitting the same card four times and then even if he does ultimately get a ten, it's like that's a twenty five percent gem rate on that literal exact card. And then you get people doing that repeatedly. I I don't know. That was just kind of a thought that came to my mind. but Dahl: I th I think that's a good Jheremy: No. Dahl: thought and I think that that's one of the things I've never quite understood with with PSA and their their database management and stuff. It's like why don't you track serial numbers? Or if you do, why don't you like maintain some consistency where we stop this? Right. Jaba: Cause people are paying. 'Cause people are paying again. But no, they they did. I I saw recently. they now do when they show you your grades and you go click on, you know, your collection or whatever, so it's basically all the stuff that you've graded, they do now say it's this serial number. There's nowhere to see like, number forty three of fifty was an eight. But if you get an eight on it, it will say you know, this card was forty-three of fifty. So I don't know if they're cracking down on it, keeping more track. Again, like I don't do that because I think it's a waste of money. But, you know, it's an interesting thing. And you would think that they would obviously be all over that and kinda say, you know, if you submit it again, we're not gonna like take the card, but like we're also not gonna grade it. You know, we're just gonna send it back to you. Dahl: Right. I mean money talks so you're right. Like if you're paying, why why turn away that service? I just think it's a little bit Jaba: Yeah, and that's why people say PSA is please submit again. Dahl: Right. Jheremy: Heh. Heh. Dahl: Yeah. I just think it's a l a little silly when you you already have this like reputation for maybe some inconsistency across the the grading floor and certain cards receive grades that don't always make a whole lot of sense. And then you you have cards that you have one person grade an eight and then they resubmit it and someone else grades it a nine or a ten. Like that just further emphasizes that belief that maybe there is some inconsistency 'cause I can't imagine there's a whole lot that can be done to go from an eight to a ten. Like I I'm sure you could use some of that Kurtz stuff to help clean it up and fix some of the blemishes, Jheremy: Yep. Dahl: but that's a pretty massive jump. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: Like the Dahl: Stop. Jheremy: way people are able to use like the humidifiers to pop dimples or this out the other like the gem rates we said right like of 26 already are so bad. It could just be people quickly submitting seeing what they get just get it in under the wire before they jumped it. Like if you go and buy it as an eight you're getting premium because you're to buy it under the cost of raw. So like why not take the chance of crack it clean it resub it if you bump it to a nine even and you make some money like it could be worthwhile. It's a lot of work. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: You go down it like the heat presses that you can do. Right. Jaba: I think that that makes a lot more sense than just looking at it like, this jackass just keeps submitting it four times. Jheremy: Well, even like BGS, right? If you have like a 95, a 95, a 95 and like an 85 surface, like there's people out there like I'll crack it, get a 10 surface, clean it, make it better, submit it to like resub it. And I just feel like there's definitely things out there that people can do two cards to make it better. So you saying that. Also makes sense, especially like looking at the checklist right of like 24 draft Like if you could have bought a connor eight with the way his prices were you're gonna go crack that and try to resub it and get something up because That next tier climb is so big Jaba: Yeah, 'cause at that point it's not like you bought the card and then paid for the grading and got screwed. You're probably paying Jheremy: Right. Jaba: you are paying less than the card was raw. As long as you can crack it without destroying it. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: You know, it it's kinda all gravy. So it it definitely makes sense from that perspective. I think that's why I love so many of the conversations I have where we kinda start on one thing and I I think it's just the coolest thing about cards in general is this conversation can get legs and kinda go so many places where it's like even still like we could probably sit here talking about it all day and just kinda keep coming up with new things to say. But it i it is like a puzzle almost and trying kinda figure out the best way to optimize things and you know, kinda beat the system almost. Jheremy: No, no. Dahl: all right. I Jaba: Jeremy, Dahl: have a Jaba: you got anything else? Dahl: I have a question for you guys. One more question for you guys. Jheremy: Not really. Okay. Jaba: All right. Let let's launch into it. Dahl: Sapphire or regular Bowman chrome autos, which you think's better in terms of grading? Jaba: Like s in terms of grading? Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: Jeremy, you go first. I think I saw the answer. Jheremy: I'm gonna go sapphire because it's a busier background. Just going off like our shimmer discussion, right? Is that right or am I wrong? Dahl: Let's see what Will says first and then we'll get into it. Jaba: I well, I I was looking at it and f I couldn't see exact numbers, but it seemed like Sapphire was popping up a lot on the higher gem rate level, so I I think it's sapphire as well. I think Jeremy's spot on with kind of the Dahl: Okay. Jaba: the busier the better. Dahl: I and that that is the correct answer. But I have a a a follow-up question to the question. And that's Jheremy: Okay. Dahl: of course there's a busy background and as you've kind of already alluded to, when there's stuff to kind of cover up those blemishes, the the great gem rate's a little bit higher. But I'm curious if you think there might be anything to do with the lower print runs on the Sapphire, fewer cards Jheremy: Yeah. Dahl: being printed, less stress on the machines. I would assume it's probably a different machine than the the traditional Bowman, Bowman, Chrome Bowman draft releases. Jaba: They have some big, beautiful machine for that, and then the one doing the normal Bowman just looks like a totaled car. Jheremy: Bita shit clunker. Yeah. Dahl: Well like you there's so many like Jheremy: I know, I was gonna say that. The print run. Dahl: yeah, there's just so many so f how do I wanna say this? Or how sh can I say this? There's fewer cards in the the Sapphire releases and there's less strain on the machine Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: and it's probably a little bit easier to stay on top of it. So I'm wondering like if that has something to do with it as well. Jaba: Yeah, maybe they ca they also probably Jheremy: I Jaba: care a little bit more, just because of the price tag on it. Jheremy: And you have less signers in the product. The signing checklist is smaller, so less cards are being handled by physical humans, like in between the packing process. I think there's all sorts of little things that definitely add into it. Like in Sapphire, don't sign, your base autos are numbered to 199. You're not signing a thousand base autos either as a player. like, you're not just going to sign them, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: stack them, sign them, stack them. Like, I mean, what's, what'd be the run a hundred? You have 99, 50, 25, 10, and 1. Like whatever the math Jaba: Hundred ninety nine plus five. Jheremy: is, like... You're less than... You're signing less than what? 400 autos for South... I don't think Jaba: Are there yellow autos or no? I don't think so. Jheremy: so. You have 1, 5, 10... Jaba: It's three hundred and eighty nine, if I'm not missing. Yeah. Five hundred. Jheremy: Right, so like, and then maybe you have Sapphire selections as well. So like on the high end, if you have everything, you have like, I don't know, 500 maybe. Like that's less than your base auto print run. So I think they're probably taken care of a little better unless they're signed all in one sitting, which maybe they are and the players don't care. But that's something we're going to find out when we get a player on here and talk to them. I'm going to talk to a player about all that. Jaba: Turns out they don't care. Yeah, yeah. I'm I'm really curious to hear about that. Jheremy: But yeah, I would have said sapphire. Dahl: Okay. Jheremy: I figured all of those factors. Dahl: Yeah, I think I think that like the thought process makes sense and I I I tend to agree even before looking at the numbers that I would go with Sapphire as well. another question to that and it's something that's probably more for Will since he's the one that seems to grade more frequently than than you or I, Jeremy, but do you do you buy cards from eBay like Eyeballing them on eBay with the intention of looking through them when you get them and sending them to be graded? Jaba: Yes. Yes. But with the caveat, once we get like a month out, like by like right now, like my buying has really slowed down. I find the first like two, three weeks is when a lot of like the blues are up and true golds. like if you go look up, you know, w wielder delise, I bet you can't really find any true blues or true golds. And then after those first few weeks, I feel like you start getting the retreads, the ones that have been passed over, they're getting spat back out. And really after a month, the only time I see stuff that looks really clean, it's like the high end stuff where there's that plausibility where it's like, this just got polder. It's like this is the first time that this has at least shown up on the market. where even now, like a month out, most of the blues and golds I see, I don't I don't wanna say that they're trashed, but I basically stopped buying them entirely because I I think the rate of it being gradable is definitely way lower. And I'm not saying it's like a perfect science. I'm not saying you know, you you only get great cards at first and then they all turn into garbage after a month. But I'll I'll say the rate Where because like I said earlier, when I'm looking at it online, really the only thing you can tell is centering. Outside of that it would have to be like a fairly major flaw to be able to pick it up. and I'm not gonna be that guy sending that eBay message like, Hey, can you send me eighteen pictures of the corners? Like Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: that makes me so annoyed when people send me that. So like I I I'm not gonna be that guy. But I I will say like at first it was probably like seventy five percent of the cards I was getting in. It was basically like give it a quick wipe down and send it off. Whereas now the the rate's probably more like fifty percent, especially with that lower end stuff where it's like, Yeah, that's not that's not good. Like I won't even take it out of like the card saver from authentication and I'll be able to see like, yeah But yeah, I would definitely say the rate goes down. That's why I'm a big proponent of Like I've said, yes, obviously base and like refractors you have to wait. It i it's just a terrible idea to buy it in the first month. But I think color, at least true color, is literally the polar opposite, where if you don't buy it in the first month, you're probably not gonna have much of a chance to get it. And yes, the prices will be a little bit higher, but not only is that because it's new, but I think a lot of the reason the prices fall over time on the raw color is because it's Just those same retreads getting kicked around. Because all of the good stuff has been gobbled up on either the first or second purchase, and those have been sent to PSA and those are now no longer raw. I think the reason mainly that we see color non color non graded drop after release Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: isn't Just because there's more out there. I think there's actually less out there. I think it's just because most people know that you're getting damaged goods. Like when I was really getting serious about this last year, around this time last year, I bought a bunch of twenty-four draft, twenty-four chrome, all that. I had just gotten a couple PSA orders back. I was doing really well. I was like, like the these cards are sick. Like how am I like how are these even Jheremy: you Jaba: available? I think I went like two for fifteen on getting tens. All the cards were like a year older. Or worse. And you know, it was kind of at a time where I really didn't have a great idea what I was doing. Like I I obviously knew about centering, but there were a lot of cards where it was, you know, scratches on the back or an edge was bad. Where it was, unfortunately, like a good learning experience. It was one of those things where sometimes you won't learn it until it happens, then you're reviewing and you're like, okay, well I'm not gonna miss that next time. which I do think is like an important part of grading. Like I think you do have to kind of make those mistakes because It's easy to be like, well like I wouldn't miss that obviously. Like but then like it actually happens and you're like but yeah I I I think a huge reason why true color prices fall over time, it's not the supply, it's not you know people caring less. I really just think it's because a lot of people know you know, hey, I've seen that that true gold. Like I said, that Taton Gray, I I just know off the top of my head number fifty of fifty is like the worst center card I've ever seen. Like it was that Jheremy: Hehe. Jaba: bad where like you see it up, like I don't know. know if it's up right now, but you just see it and you're like, yeah, that's like not a gradable card. So I I do think that that's an interesting thing with color. And again, I'm do not buy base or refractors in the first month, but I think true color, that's really the only time outside of getting lucky or, you know, a break or somebody selling something they just hit in a break six months later, sure, like that could happen. But the vast majority of the time that color's getting gobbled up, sent to PSA and, you know, it's just not raw anymore. Dahl: Yeah, that makes sense. I guess like my Jheremy: Yep. Dahl: my last my last question in that regard, and I know you've kind of talked about this already, well I feel like we're we're running a little bit long on the graded talk, but you know, you you mentioned you you look at the centering because that's what you look for. But any other tips on like purchasing from ebay or are you just looking at centering and if it looks okay you're you're pulling the trigger? Jaba: I think it depends on the deal because what I'll do like with with the lease, like I was getting a lot of blues And then kinda every time I got one, I would just have my max bid like ten bucks lower where it was like, Okay, like I still want this, but like I don't really need it. So you kinda lower the bar for yourself and then like when I would look at it, I would say, Okay, well this one like looks great. And after getting a bunch in, I knew, hey, that bottom right corner's messed up. So if you're kinda looking at it not really knowing where to look, you won't see it. But now like if I see a delase blue on Instagram or eBay, like Jeremy sent me one this morning, he was like, this one just went up and that bottom right corner doesn't look bad. So it's like once you kind of know what to look for, it's easier to see the non-centering stuff. But for the most part I th I I think centering's the huge one. I think looking at pictures of the back, you know, I I just mentioned that nightmare grading order I had. Most of those the issue was it was either creased or scratched or there there was a bad corner that looked fine on the front and looked like somebody stepped on it on the back. Like I don't think I even looked at the back of them. I like before I sent them, which sounds like crazy now. But I kinda just figured it like, yeah, well like the front of the card is all anyone cares about. Like even Like the biggest of nerds like me, like I don't look at the stats on the back, like I can go find that my computer, and then you know, you kind of get an order back, and you're like, Okay, they do care about the back. Like, I don't think like centering on the back matters, like if it's fine on the front, like that's not something I think about. But I do think like a big, big, big tip I would give people is like look at the back, whether you have it in hand. Can't really tell on eBay, but like the back can kill you if you're just getting into Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: it, you don't really know what you're looking for. Like, just get it under light. Again, this is not something where you need like a scientific microscope, just get it under light, kinda like you know, look at it at different angles with that shine on the surface, and you'll you'll know. Like it's not easy to miss. Like once you're once you're looking at it that way, like if it's like a tiny like dimple, like I I'll still send it. But like generally speaking, like you will know. Like Jeremy, you had that one column A that you were gonna buy and it was in your shop and you looked at it and there was like a fingernail indent on the back. Jheremy: Mhm. Yup. Yeah, on the back. Like that would have killed the card. Jaba: Yeah, and like that's something I think a lot of people would not think to look for. Like you're just looking at the front, you're like, Hey, it's good but then, Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: you know, a fingernail, it's just like, Ugh And, Jheremy: Great. Jaba: you know, that's enough. I mean, that's not gonna be like a ten to a nine, that's gonna be like a ten to a seven. That's like Jheremy: Right. Jaba: Those are the things that make it like a massive loss. So yeah, I I I would say it's really just the centering because I think you can really agonize over pictures and just say, Is that like a piece of dust on the top loader? Is that and generally speaking I think like dust and stuff is pretty easy to get off. But I I try not to kind of big brain myself and over analyze it. It's kinda just like, okay, the centering's good. Nothing looks visibly messed up. Like, I'll get it in and if anything's wrong, I'll just throw it back on eBay on excellent condition and try to recoup some money. Jheremy: Yeah, mean, Dahl: Makes sense to me. Jheremy: little things I also look for, not that I grade, but like, especially now, like going in on with Will on some cards. It's like, what else does a seller have listed? Is it like a one-off card? Cause that means they probably bought it as opposed to having some color and base and everything listed. Just like little Jaba: Right. Jheremy: context clues. Obviously the photo itself, you get a lot that guys are taking screenshots from breaks. So, you know, it's going right from the breaker to yourself. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Just like little things like that. Feedback see if the people know what they're even doing with cards How long have they been around or they listing is it? Who's who's listing it like if it's quick consigned like the notion is cards are probably cooked if it's going to quick consigned so Things like that see if the other Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: see if they're selling true color or not because maybe they kept the color and sold everything else So that stuff might still be clean just little things that in terms of buying that You kind of pick up on over the years Jaba: Yeah, yeah. I I I think if someone has a ton of slabs up of newer product and then they're just selling like my eBay store is a lot of like graded twenty five stuff and then you'll just see like raw boom and chrome. And like again, like my whole thing with this is like I I wanna be totally transparent and honest and like I've had people send me my eBay auctions in the last week and been like, is this gradable? And I I'll tell I I'm just like you know, I'm not saying it's not gradable, but it I looked at it and I didn't deem it, you know, worthwhile. And I I think I do shoot myself in the foot a little. I think that there's more cards that I don't send that would ten than cards that I shouldn't send. Like I Jheremy: Mm. Jaba: I do think I overanalyze a bit. But like I'll I'll openly tell people, like, yeah, like I I bought it with the intention to grade and now I'm selling it, so you do the math. And I think You know, it'll be a lot of stores like mine where you see a lot of older graded stuff, but then any kind of new stuff, it's like, hey, why is he selling that? Like if it's not true color or like like if I get like a variation, like a break or something, like I'm just gonna sell it. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: but it's like if you see somebody, you know, like any of us selling like a true orange of a guy that is good, it's like why is that? Like I I I do think you have to kinda have that idea of like questioning, hey, why is this for sale? Dahl: think you you mentioned something and you you framed it as like shooting yourself in the foot. But I would I would point out that it's probably better to err on the side of caution, especially with the cost of grading these days getting so high. Where you Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Dahl: if you're sending something you're not confident in, you can lose money immediately just by sending it to PSA because of how expensive Jheremy: Yep. Dahl: it is to grade the card and how like little value PSA nine holds in a lot of different variations. So I I personally think like erring on the side of caution is always an important important to keep in mind as you're kind of moving forward in your your grading journey. I think it's probably s better safe than sorry in almost all cases. And I I personally would rather miss out on a potential ten than send something and not get it and then get a nine, you know, like I think that Jaba: Yeah, 'cause one one once you have that order where like, you know, you go two for fifteen or something and like Jheremy: He Jaba: It happens. Like I'm talking now, like that won't happen to me. I have like fifteen orders there right now. I guarantee you like three or four of them, like Jeremy's gonna have to like talk me off a bridge when I get those grades. Like by Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: by no means do I wanna sound like I'm like an expert or like I'm like a wizard with the grading. Like I'm not, like I'm better than I was last year. But it is something where it's like only experience can, you know, get you better. And like I said, I think it's really important if you get something back with a bad grade, look at it. Like make yourself look at I see so many people complaining about PSA, like saying they got screwed. And like again, it it's the same thing as Fanatics and Ruben. Like you can complain about a lot of things with PSA. But I I do think for the most part, like those cards where like I'll randomly just get a seven. Nine times out of ten, I look at it and I see something where I'm like, Okay, like I missed that. Like it it's really not like they're just murdering you, and I see so many people complaining that they got screwed. Like you're probably not getting screwed, and I know people don't want to hear that. But like it it's one of those things where you just Jheremy: you Jaba: gotta be honest with yourself and use it as a learning experience and say, Okay, I'm gonna find the issue and maybe sometimes like you do get screwed, but by and large for me, you know, it's like okay, like I gotta be a big boy here and figure out where I messed up because I probably messed up and then you go and you see it and then you never make that mistake again. So in in a way I think it's almost valuable and that's something you can only get as you grade more because you're gonna have Dahl: Yeah. Jaba: one. It's like no matter how good you are, like you're gonna get like a random seven or an eight, like every fifteen, twenty cards. And you just gotta force yourself to look at it and say, I'm finding the problem with this thing and you're gonna find the problem. Like you have to take some, you know, accountability with it. Dahl: And you kinda you kinda mentioned this as well earlier about like I guess I kinda lost my train of thought, but you're right in the fact that like taking accountability and being aware. I remember what I was gonna say. Like this idea of a it's kind of counterintuitive because we exist in a world where perfect isn't a thing. We strive for perfection when we're going to grade these cards, but we're chasing a thing that doesn't exist. So Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: There there's there's going to be mistakes that are made and when you're aware and you're able to acknowledge that you made those mistakes, it's going to make you better and it's going to make you smarter in the future and make you avoid those mistakes because the best way to learn is to make mistakes in this world. Jaba: Yeah. Dahl: And I think that's that's important. Like people have this like I don't wanna say like victim mindset, but sometimes it feels like they're feeling like they're victimized by PSA and saying, I got screwed, I got screwed. Jaba: Yeah, it's easy to just say, Hey, I got screwed, you know. Dahl: Right. But you're never gonna get better if that's your attitude when you get a seven on a card you expected to get a ten. Instead you should take a step back and be like, What did I miss? And be honest with yourself, meet yourself where you're at and then don't make that mistake again, you know? I think that's important. I think some people don't like to don't like to take individual accountability, but I think it's so important if we're gonna like be fully honest about grading and the importance of like making money in this hobby. Jaba: Yeah, and I I think it's one of those things like you like we we've been saying all day Not only in terms of time but money too. The investment integrating is serious. And it's like if you want to do it seriously, like you're really hurting yourself if you're not able to, you know, look at yourself and kind of figure out the problems. Like if that or one order I had that was terrible, like if I had just taken that and said, Hey, I got screwed and thrown it all up on eBay, I wouldn't have noticed stuff on the back. And I would have continued submitting things with bad backs and like I would have paid the price. But like now, like again, still not perfect, not even close. close to perfect. But, you know, that's kinda one thing I can check off the list. It's like, Jheremy: you Jaba: okay, I'm never gonna send something with a creased back again And I think if you're serious about it and you wanna make money off of it, it tha that that is the only way you can actually become good at it. And I mean that's true for anything in life, but Dahl: I agree. Well, I think I think this is a good grading talk. I think I learned a lot from from someone who has probably more experience than myself, so I appreciate your insight, Will. Jaba: Yeah, sorry, I I feel like I talked too much, but Jeremy's over there. Dahl: Yeah, how dare you Jheremy: You're just passionate. Dahl: talk how dare you talk on a podcast where you're supposed to talk? Jaba: Yeah. Jeremy, you got anything else? Jheremy: Not really, no. Honestly. Just been absorbing. Jaba: You're s you're you're starting a grade though. You're getting into it. Jheremy: maybe we'll get there my last sub wasn't great so it just makes you err on the side of caution but it's clearly where you can make the Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: most money if that's what you're trying to do in cards like obviously Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, like I I did some E V exercise the other day and it was just kinda like a back of the napkin. But I was saying, okay, if an average card in an order at the sixty dollar tier, if an average card is worth five hundred dollars and you're saying that a ten is just gonna be a thousand dollars, The expected value if you go thirty five percent on gems is I think it was like a hundred and forty dollars a card. So I mean thirty five's like probably like the lowest you could go. 'Cause that's like way below average here. Like even if you're sending it in, like th that that's serious expected value. And I think that that was something for me where it like, yeah, it's expensive, but like you just kinda have to move up the bar of what you're sending. And like if you're sending stuff at that level, like en masse, like you're going to make money. Like you just kinda have to, you know, grin and bear it. But yeah, that's that's all I got. Jheremy: Cool. That was a good one. Good today. Jaba: All right. Well, everyone listening, please let us know What we should talk about next week. I think we should talk about sniping because I think the three of us all have somewhat similar but also different approaches to how we buy, how we snipe stuff, so to speak. And I think we should try to talk more about that. It was something I wanted to get into today. And then I went on a filibuster about grading. But yeah, if people have questions about like how we buy, like different buying methods, what we look for, how we do it, Send us those questions and yeah, we'll talk about it again. And thank you doll for joining us. It's always a highlight of the week having you on. And Jeremy, safe travels. Jeremy's having dinner with my dad in Florida tonight. So yeah, his Jheremy: I appreciate you. Yep, sure am. Jaba: his new favorite son. Jheremy: The chosen one. Jaba: Alright, well, thanks everyone for listening. Thank you both. Always a blast. And we will talk to you guys next time. Go Mets.