Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / How AI really works, it was grown not made and that should give you a wierd feeling
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: You keep saying I should understand this stuff, but I'm fifty-seven.
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: Is it too late for me?
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: No, and most people talking about it don't understand it either.
- 0:09SPEAKER_00: And that's the part nobody says out loud.
- 0:11SPEAKER_00: Start at the beginning.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: What is it actually doing?
- 0:14SPEAKER_00: It's predicting what comes next.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: So you type something and it works out the most likely next piece of writing over and over and over very, very fast.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: That is it?
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: Well that's the engine.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: Everything else is scale.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: An enormous amount of text and an enormous amount of computing power.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: Where did it learn all of that?
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: From human writing, books, websites, forums, manuals, arguments, instructions, all of it.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: So it's quoting people, isn't it?
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: Not usually.
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: It learned the patterns, not the pages.
- 0:45SPEAKER_00: Closer to how you learn to talk than a library card catalog.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: Is it looking up things when I ask for something?
- 0:53SPEAKER_00: Sometimes if the product is built to search, but the thing underneath is not looking anything up, it's producing what a good answer usually looks like.
- 1:01SPEAKER_00: That sounds like a problem.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: It is the problem.
- 1:04SPEAKER_00: It can hand you something that looks exactly like the right answer, but is completely wrong.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: Why would it do that?
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: Well, because it was built to sound right, not to be right.
- 1:14SPEAKER_00: Those two things overlap most of the time, and most of the time is not all of the time.
- 1:19SPEAKER_00: So how do I know when to trust it?
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: Trust it on shape and on first drafts.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: Check it on facts, names, numbers, and dates.
- 1:27SPEAKER_00: Anything you would be embarrassed repeating.
- 1:30SPEAKER_00: You gotta check it.
- 1:31SPEAKER_00: Does it remember me?
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: The thing underneath does not.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: Every conversation starts from nothing.
- 1:36SPEAKER_00: Some products bolt memory on top of it, and that's a choice a company made.
- 1:41SPEAKER_00: Not the machine deciding to remember who you are.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: So it's not learning from me personally.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: Not in the moment, no.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: Whether your conversation gets used later to train something is a policy question, and the answer is in the fine print.
- 1:54SPEAKER_00: Should I be careful what I type into it?
- 1:56SPEAKER_00: Yes, same rule as anything else.
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: If a competitor reading it would cost you money, then I wouldn't put it in a tool whose retention policy you haven't read.
- 2:07SPEAKER_00: Alright, is it thinking?
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: That's the question everybody actually wants answered, and I'm going to give you the real answer instead of a comfortable one.
- 2:14SPEAKER_00: Go ahead.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: Nobody knows.
- 2:16SPEAKER_00: And I don't mean that as a dodge.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: I mean that the people who built these things say so in public.
- 2:22SPEAKER_00: Who says that?
- 2:23SPEAKER_00: Dario Amodi, who runs Anthropic, one of the biggest AI companies in the world, he published an essay in April 2025 called The Urgency of Interpretability.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: And what does he say?
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: That when one of these systems makes a choice, they have no idea at a specific level why it actually made the choice.
- 2:42SPEAKER_00: The company that built it doesn't know why it does what it does.
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: And that's what he wrote on his own website under his own name because, well, he's running the company.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: How is that even possible?
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: Because of how it gets made.
- 2:55SPEAKER_00: His own words are that these things are grown more like than they're built.
- 3:00SPEAKER_00: Grown?
- 3:01SPEAKER_00: Like a plant.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: You set the conditions, you control the soil and the water and the light.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: You do not control where every branch actually sprouts from and ends up growing to.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: Well, that's not how software works.
- 3:14SPEAKER_00: It is not.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: Within with normal software, a person wrote every rule.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: With this, nobody wrote the rules.
- 3:20SPEAKER_00: The system actually found them.
- 3:22SPEAKER_00: That is unsettling.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: It should be a little.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: But notice what it is not.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: It is not a monster waking up.
- 3:28SPEAKER_00: It is people shipping something faster than they can actually explain it.
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: Well, is anybody actually working on that?
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: Yes, and he put a clock on it.
- 3:37SPEAKER_00: He wants to be able to reliably diagnose what's going on inside these systems, and he gave that five to ten years.
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: Which means right now they can't.
- 3:47SPEAKER_00: Right now they mostly cannot.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: And that's where actually where it actually stands here in 2026, September.
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: Has anything changed since then?
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: Something big.
- 3:56SPEAKER_00: In July of this year, and this is the part I find genuinely fascinating.
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: What happened?
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: On July 6th, Anthropic published research saying they found something like a workspace inside of the model, a small area where it holds what it is currently thinking about.
- 4:12SPEAKER_00: A workspace.
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: Dozens of idea at a time, and less than a tenth of everything going on in there.
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: And nobody actually designed it.
- 4:19SPEAKER_00: What do you mean it appeared?
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: Nobody sat down and built that room.
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: It formed it on its own while the thing was being trained, and they only found it afterward by actually going and looking.
- 4:29SPEAKER_00: Okay, and what is in the room?
- 4:31SPEAKER_00: Here's the part that will sit with you.
- 4:33SPEAKER_00: They find it working, they found it working through steps inside the space that never show up in the answer that it actually hands you.
- 4:41SPEAKER_00: Is it thinking things that it doesn't say?
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: On multi-step problems, yes, the middle of the thinking happens in there and never makes it onto the page.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: That sounds like it's hiding something.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't go that far, neither did they.
- 4:55SPEAKER_00: You do the same thing.
- 4:57SPEAKER_00: You do not narrate every thought before you open your mouth.
- 5:00SPEAKER_00: Could you imagine that world?
- 5:01SPEAKER_00: But you can't see mine either.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: Right, the difference is that they built a tool that they can look at, some of this now.
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: Now they can read it and they can steer it, and that's brand new.
- 5:12SPEAKER_00: So is it conscious or not?
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: Here's why I trust this particular research.
- 5:16SPEAKER_00: They said it very plainly that it does not show the thing has experiences or feelings.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: They said that themselves.
- 5:24SPEAKER_00: In their own paper, they separated being able to report on your own thoughts from actually having an inner life, and they only claimed the first one.
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: A company had the chance to say their product might be alive and didn't take it?
- 5:37SPEAKER_00: Well, this is exactly why I'm telling you about this one and not the 10 scarier headlines you probably already saw this week.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: So, what do I actually do with all of this?
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: Use it for drafts, summaries, and keep the and the boring repetitive work.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: Check anything factual, keep your private business out of a free tool.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: And that covers about 90% of it.
- 5:58SPEAKER_00: And the rest?
- 5:59SPEAKER_00: Stay curious, stay skeptical of anybody who's certain in either direction.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: The people closest to this day, they don't fully understand it yet.
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: You're not, you're you're actually allowed to say that as well.
- 6:09SPEAKER_00: So AI for everyone, not just the wealthy.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with honor.
- 6:13SPEAKER_00: Be safe out there.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: We'll see you in the next one.