Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Anthropic’s AI Restrictions Raise the Stakes for Big Tech

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Anthropic’s AI Restrictions Raise the Stakes for Big Tech · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: and Paul Lane.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. Big news
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  Speaker 2: of the week this week continues to be the events
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  Speaker 2: in Iran. The President, his attendance at the G seven,
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  Speaker 2: the looming deal with Iran to be signed and executed
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  Speaker 2: on on Friday of this week, and what precisely do
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  Speaker 2: we see there in terms of agreed upon terms and
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  Speaker 2: energy deals at the G seven. The President's facing questions
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  Speaker 2: about commitments to Ukraine and the war there as well
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  Speaker 2: as he did address a rumor from yesterday that came
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  Speaker 2: out about the US investing in Iran or freeing up
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: cash for Iran, and he adamantly denied those claims. So
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  Speaker 2: we will see what we hear on Friday of this week,
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  Speaker 2: and nothing from Tehran has come out to say, well,
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  Speaker 2: then the deal's Offran did say that the negotiations would
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  Speaker 2: be arounds. Foreign Minister did say that new negotiations with
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  Speaker 2: the US would start immediately following that preliminary deal signed
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  Speaker 2: on Friday. So again we at least have both parties
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  Speaker 2: agreeing in theory that there is a deal to be
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  Speaker 2: signed on Friday. What's in that deal? What does it
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  Speaker 2: actually mean for you know, striking at each other or
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the ceasefire open question. How does Israel feel about all
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  Speaker 2: of that? Open question? But for the time being, we
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  Speaker 2: seem to be on a path towards a deal being signed,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: and then what gets negotiated over the next sixty days
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  Speaker 2: will be obviously telling anything else. On energy markets, I
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  Speaker 2: guess you know, important to talk about just where energy
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: markets have gone now, because oil prices are down a
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  Speaker 2: good thirty percent over the course of the last month
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  Speaker 2: or so. We peaked out during this conflict on West
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  Speaker 2: Texas crewed at a price.
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  Speaker 1: Can it go one to ten?
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  Speaker 2: We peaked out back on No No, No, No, April seventh.
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  Speaker 2: We peaked at one hundred and thirteen dollars a barrel
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  Speaker 2: on the West Texas crude. We're now down to about
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  Speaker 2: seventy seven dollars a barrel, so a massive swing there.
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  Speaker 2: I do expect gas prices to follow, though not one
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  Speaker 2: for one. We were looking at this earlier actually, and
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  Speaker 2: the monthly correlation with oil prices to gas prices is
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  Speaker 2: about seventy percent correlated. So on average, over the course
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  Speaker 2: of the last thirty years or so, when oil prices
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  Speaker 2: have gone up by ten percent, gas prices have followed
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  Speaker 2: by seven, when oil prices have fallen by ten percent
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  Speaker 2: gas prices have fallen by seven It always seems to
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  Speaker 2: me that it follows immediately on the upside and not
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  Speaker 2: so much on the downside. But when you look at
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  Speaker 2: the data, actually it doesn't trend out that way. It
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  Speaker 2: actually has shown a pretty universal correlation across the board
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  Speaker 2: up and down, with different time period signifying different things.
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  Speaker 2: On the triple A national average for gasoline, we're down
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  Speaker 2: now to four dollars and four cents per share. That's
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  Speaker 2: up or that's down from what did I say, share
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  Speaker 2: per gallon? Thank you? That's down from where we were
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  Speaker 2: a month ago, which was at four fifty two, and
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  Speaker 2: I think we peaked there around four sixty during this cycle.
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  Speaker 2: So yeah, we never got quite back to where we
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  Speaker 2: were in those twenty twenty two levels for gasoline prices equities.
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  Speaker 2: As we open up the eleven o'clock hour in mixed territory,
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  Speaker 2: we've got the Dow Jones Industrial average up six tenths
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  Speaker 2: of a percent, the SMP down a tenth, NAZDAK down
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  Speaker 2: a fifth of a percent in early trading here, so
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  Speaker 2: we will see where all that goes. And then we
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  Speaker 2: have the FED meeting tomorrow, widely expected that interest rates
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  Speaker 2: will stay where they are. But Kevin Warsh's first press conference,
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  Speaker 2: so that will be uh, that'll be an interesting one. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: To me, it all eyes from the market perspective today
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  Speaker 3: or on what we're about to die into with SpaceX.
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  Speaker 3: I feel like that is really the prevailing story.
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  Speaker 2: Let's dive In's.
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  Speaker 3: Biggest company in the world Mike.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, fourth biggest company in the world by what employees,
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  Speaker 2: revenue or profits.
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  Speaker 3: By market caap in terms of what the and I
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  Speaker 3: think that's important to explain just briefly for listeners out there.
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  Speaker 3: Market cap is a way where you try to gauge
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  Speaker 3: the valuation of a company. So it takes the number
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  Speaker 3: of shares existing and then multiplies it by the price
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  Speaker 3: that the stock is trading at on a daily basis.
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  Speaker 3: And so for example, Nvidia is the largest at a
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  Speaker 3: little over five trillion. Then you've got Google, Apple, and
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  Speaker 3: what was Microsoft heading into today, but now is SpaceX
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  Speaker 3: as of recent trading action, where its market cap had
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  Speaker 3: touched as high as two point nine to five trillion
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  Speaker 3: mid morning, Microsoft's valuation is just shy of that, a
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  Speaker 3: mere two point nine three trillion but it really just
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  Speaker 3: speaks to the fervor and support and enthusiasm that this
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  Speaker 3: market clearly has, particularly on the retail side of things,
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  Speaker 3: because retail investors were a big part of this IPO,
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  Speaker 3: at least a third of it, and from what I've
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  Speaker 3: read here are a big part of what we've seen
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  Speaker 3: in the early enthusiasm trading around SpaceX is a lot
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  Speaker 3: of retail investors clamoring for what is only about four
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  Speaker 3: point two percent of their shares that are accessible to
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  Speaker 3: publicly trade SpaceX.
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  Speaker 2: Let's explain that, because that is a complicated story right there.
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  Speaker 2: So when we take a company like let's take Google.
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  Speaker 2: So Google total outstanding shares just a moment, people pooh pooh. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: They've got about twelve point two billion total outstanding shares
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  Speaker 2: across all their classes, and the vast majority of those
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  Speaker 2: you can trade on open markets. Right now, With SpaceX,
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  Speaker 2: what has happened is they have undergone an initial public offering,
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  Speaker 2: and as part of that offering, they offered about five
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  Speaker 2: percent of their company up for sale as part of
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  Speaker 2: this IPO. Right the other ninety five percent owned by
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  Speaker 2: Elon Musk. Big major financial institutions that have invested in
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  Speaker 2: SpaceX over time, pensions, endowments, individual private equity firms. Those
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  Speaker 2: companies all own shares of SpaceX two, but in almost
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  Speaker 2: all of them they're not allowed to sell them right now. Correct,
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  Speaker 2: So explain I guess why and how that works.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, So just to give the numbers behind what Mike
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  Speaker 3: was speaking of to apply them to SpaceX. You had
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  Speaker 3: just mentioned Google. So SpaceX has roughly about thirteen billion
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  Speaker 3: shares outstanding. That four or five percent that we're speaking
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  Speaker 3: of that is in the public float is about five
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  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty five million of shares that are available
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  Speaker 3: to trade right now specific to the lock up. The
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  Speaker 3: other twelve and a half billion here that are not
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  Speaker 3: available for publicly traded use in consumption, those are subject
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  Speaker 3: to lock ups, and typically what you are accustomed to
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  Speaker 3: when a company goes public, it's a very straightforward that
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  Speaker 3: for one hundred and eighty days, all of the shares
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  Speaker 3: are locked up. They can't be sold until you pass
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  Speaker 3: that period of time. Spacess is a little bit different
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  Speaker 3: where they're doing this in tranches, where there are these
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  Speaker 3: different checkpoints where a certain percentage of shares from an employee,
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  Speaker 3: for example, can be sold. You know, one of them
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  Speaker 3: is an earnings report. Another one is you know a
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  Speaker 3: specific period of time where it's ninety days from the
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  Speaker 3: public offering that occurred. So there's all these different checkpoints
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  Speaker 3: that these shares will come available. Elon must are subject
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  Speaker 3: to a different one. Him and a couple insiders, real
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  Speaker 3: big time insiders. They're subject to a year lockup. So
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  Speaker 3: there's all these different pervision in place for all sorts
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  Speaker 3: of different types of employees. But the point being for
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  Speaker 3: listeners out there that this is the tip of the
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  Speaker 3: iceberg in a sense, where the shares that are out
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  Speaker 3: there are a very small fraction of the total amount
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  Speaker 3: of shares. And if you are sitting on the other side,
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  Speaker 3: where you have access to that twelve or thirteen billion
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  Speaker 3: of shares that are not publicly traded, watching this company
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  Speaker 3: exceed the market cap of Microsoft, you're gonna want There's
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  Speaker 3: gonna be things in your life that you might want
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  Speaker 3: to cash in a little bit of that you know
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  Speaker 3: at some point in time, And that's what happens typically
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  Speaker 3: with public companies is that you may see a pop
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  Speaker 3: out of the gate, but there can be selling pressure.
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  Speaker 1: Added.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not saying that SpaceX necessarily does this It's something
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  Speaker 3: that it's hard to project, but there certainly is a
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  Speaker 3: lot of shares that are kind of locked up in
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  Speaker 3: a way at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: At the same time the shares went public, they went
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  Speaker 2: for sale at the same time. Now you have a
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  Speaker 2: lot of different index funds, mutual funds, others trying to
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  Speaker 2: add SpaceX to their holding, right, So the S and
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  Speaker 2: P said that they're not adding, but Russell NASDA both
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  Speaker 2: change their rules to be able to add two different funds.
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  Speaker 2: So you have that clambering for shares at the same time.
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  Speaker 2: And again, only a very small portion of these shares
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  Speaker 2: are out there available for purchase in markets right now.
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  Speaker 2: I do want to just give some metrics again to
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  Speaker 2: compare these companies, because it is tough to fathom when
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  Speaker 2: you talk about SpaceX being larger than Microsoft now in
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  Speaker 2: terms of market capitalization. So Microsoft last year put up
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  Speaker 2: revenue of two hundred and eighty two billion dollars SpaceX nineteen.
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  Speaker 2: When you do the math there, that makes Microsoft at
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  Speaker 2: these current valuations trading at an elevated level priced to
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  Speaker 2: sales ratio of about ten, which is pretty high from
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  Speaker 2: historic context for even tech companies. SpaceX is well over
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  Speaker 2: ahundred At these levels, that's a backward looking metrics. Say
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  Speaker 2: what you will about it. You know, last year's revenue
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  Speaker 2: might not be next year's revenue, but you have to
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  Speaker 2: really believe in that trend line growing on the revenue
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  Speaker 2: story to make that worthwhile. The net income for SpaceX
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  Speaker 2: was a negative nearly five billion dollars in twenty twenty five,
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  Speaker 2: compared to Microsoft's hundred and fifteen billion dollar gain. From
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  Speaker 2: a free cash flow perspective, Microsoft generated some seventy two
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars in cash. SpaceX was negative on that metric. So,
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  Speaker 2: by almost every possible way that you can think about it,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: if you are investing in SpaceX shares today, you are
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: buying them, you know, maybe speculatively, maybe not, but because
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  Speaker 2: you believe that there is a tremendous amount of growth
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  Speaker 2: to be had by this company. Which again, who am
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  Speaker 2: I to say whether or not that will take place,
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  Speaker 2: But that is absolutely the promise being made by Elon
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  Speaker 2: Mosk or the not the promise is not allowed to
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  Speaker 2: make promises, but that is what he is attempting to
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  Speaker 2: convince the public of. And gotta be honest, it's gotta
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  Speaker 2: be some tough math to make those to make those
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  Speaker 2: stories work.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's important for us to note that I'm
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  Speaker 3: not saying that it's a bad company or anything like that.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, I think what they do is incredibly fascinating.
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  Speaker 3: But we're just looking at it purely from a numbers perspective,
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  Speaker 3: where you look at valuations and how similar companies may trade.
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  Speaker 3: And maybe you can argue that there aren't many similar
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  Speaker 3: companies to space like that's what investors are saying now,
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  Speaker 3: But that's the context that we just try to look
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: at through here on the Financial Exchange.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Let's take quick break. When we come back, trivia coming
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: up next.
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  Speaker 2: So a few months ago now, Anthropic released a new
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: or they didn't release, they created a new model, the
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  Speaker 2: Claude Mythos five, and early on they came out and said, look,
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  Speaker 2: this model is so powerful in what it can do
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  Speaker 2: that we're not releasing it to the general public. We
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: have spoken with a number of governments and key organizations
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: across well the United States and international groups and are
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: releasing this model to them instead. And by powerful, what
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: they meant is that it was extraordinarily good at detecting
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: errors in code, that A could be patched using the tool,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: or B could be attacked and used to access vulnerable systems.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: And so my read on that was initially, huh, that's
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: a pretty good marketing ploy to be able to say, hey,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: this thing's so powerful, we're not releasing it. But then
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: soon thereafter you had a meeting with let's see J
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Powell and Scott Bessent and a bunch of banking executives
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: about this exact model, and I said, you don't really
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: get those two people in a room together unless there's
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: something serious going on. And over the course of the
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: last few months it's been made clear that, oh, yeah,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: this is that powerful, and large institutions all over the
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: place have been using it to try and patch their
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: systems before it gets released to the general public so
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: they don't get completely taken down by hackers. And again,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: in the twenty first century, that is pretty critical when
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: we talk about access to, for instance, the banking system,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: digital payments, and all sorts of critical items. I mean
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: half of our grids are online, all sorts of medical records,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: all sorts of things that could potentially be accessed here.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: Last week, Claude still hasn't or Anthropic hasn't released the
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: new Mythos model to the general public. They still deem
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: that too problematic. Instead, they created a new model called
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Fable five, And from my understanding of it, they basically
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: created this model with a bunch of safeguards around it
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: that didn't make it dumber, but rather, if you prompted
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: it to do or asked certain questions, it would kick
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: you out of the Fable five model into a dumber model.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: So basically, hey, you know, user tries to create code
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: to infiltrate a banking system software. Okay, Yeah, that's a
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: you know guardrail that we put in place, and you're
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: booted out and put into a one of the lower models,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: or you try and use it to create chemical weapons
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: or any of those types of things. Yeah, bumps you out.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: On Friday afternoon, the Commerce Department sent Anthropic a letter
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: saying that basically they wanted them to restrict that cutting
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: edge Fable five to anyone other than US citizens. So
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: any foreign national access to that Fable five and mith
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: those five models they didn't want to happen. Anthropic pretty
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: quickly said, we have no means to do so, so
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: we're pulling the model entirely and removed access to it
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: almost immediately in order to comply with it, because there
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: is no way for them to go around and detect. Hey, Paul,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the new user of this Fable five model is a
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: US citizen.
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: It gets into some very difficult territory here when you're
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: balancing the agenda of the government, which is to protect
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: its financial institutions, to protect its people from cybersecurity hacks.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: But also compare that to contrast that with this idea
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: that technology needs to evolve rapidly, and no other period
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: in time is it more rapid than what artificial intelligence
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: has been in terms of the speed and just velocity
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: that it's grown at. And governments have a tendency to
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: be bureaucratic and slow things down quite a bit. So
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: you just have these two conflicting agendas butting up against
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: one another.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: Well, the other thing that concerns there's this theory I
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: think it's called multiple discovery, and it's just the idea
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: that you know, independent groups studying the same things in
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: different parts of the world that don't talk to each
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: other tend to cluster their discoveries around the same time,
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: even without you know, having looked at each other's work.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Just you saw this with many technologies of the course
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: of hundreds of years, that just when people are studying
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: the same thing, they tend to come up with discoveries
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: pretty quickly. Soon they're after each other. You can bet
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: that there are a bunch of research labs right now
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: attempting to build tools using AI that you are models
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: that are trained to do similar things that Mythos can do.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: And so part of my concern has been, yeah, you
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: better rush to patch this stuff because somebody else, even
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: if they don't get Mythos soon, somebody else is going
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: to develop something that's ninety percent is good at detecting
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: these issues and attacking them. Whether it's a Russian research lab,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: a Chinese research lab, you know, somebody that's less friendly
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: to the United States is probably going to get their
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: hands on something pretty compelling rather soon. And so it's
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: this danger game of hey, do we release this do
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: we not release it? I don't have a firm answer.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: By the way, I'm not saying that the government's made
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: a mistake on this. It does seem to represent a
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: national security risk, but I don't know how long you
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: can hold it back without facing other threats from other
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: actors that are a little bit less beholden to US restrictions.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: We've got to take a quick break when we come back.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Wall Street Watch is coming up next, bringing.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: The latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange radio network.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Don't know Foo whoa street watch trecking the stocks fandato
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: and the headlines driving markets so far today right here
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: Well, markets are still currently mixed. The Dow Jones is
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: leading the way on the positive front, up eight tenths
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: of a percent of four hundred and six points. The
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: S and P five hundred is off twelve points, or
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: a little over a tenth of percent, and the Nasdaq's
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: off ninety two points or point three two percent. Meanwhile,
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Oil is now not gonna tell me on CNBC, thank
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: you very much. Gold is off two tenths of a percent,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Silvers off four tenths of a percent. Meanwhile, online brokerage
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: Robinhood is down three percent after announcing it would lay
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: off about ten percent of its workforce. Robinhood expects to
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: take around twenty million dollars in charges for severance and
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: benefit costs. David Buster's stock is down three and a
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: half percent on weaker than expected first quarter results. The
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: company earned sixteen cents per share, well below the forecast
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: of sixty cents per share, revenue of five hundred and
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: fifty nine point two million dollars also missed the five
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: hundred and eighty million dollar consensus. Chemicals manufacturer Huntsman is
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: down twenty percent after agreed to merged with rival Olin
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: in an all stock deal. After the merger of the
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: new company will be named Olin Huntsman. The deal is
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: expected to close in the first half of twenty twenty seven.
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: Oland shares slipped around two and a half percent, and
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: finally SpaceX jumped another eleven percent, building on its already
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: massive gains. It surpassed both Amazon and Microsoft today to
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: be the fourth largest US company. I am ben Kitchen
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: and that is Wall Street. Watch. Time to pay off
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: a little bit of trivia here. The question was out
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: of the top ten, where does Ford rank by market
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: cap of global car brands? The answer would be eight.
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: Today's winner is Richard and Quincy. He'll be taking home
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: a Financial Exchange Show t shirt. We play trivia every
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: day here on the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: So we were talking about Anthropic and the government ban
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: on their Fable five model wasn't a full on ban,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: but it said they couldn't release it to foreign nationals
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: which they had no ability to do. And Anthropic has
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: been apparently in DC, you know, lobbying, meeting with the
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: administration to try and find a way to be able
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: to release this and AI get paid. But at the
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: same time, I do wonder what this means for the
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: structure of AI. So to give a moment and paint
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: a picture here, what's being promised right now are these
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: massive data centers that are located wherever really you can
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: get to build them, but you know here domestically for
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: reasons of national security, also reasons of practicality, right you
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: can't very easily send the signal to China and back
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: and get a reasonable response from your AI system that's
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: timely and able to be used effectively. Maybe you can
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: do it in space. I don't know, but that's been
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: the idea is, Hey, we're gonna have these massive data
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: centers that do all the processing power. And just like
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: we've seen for the last few decades, more and more
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: computing power is going to be done at centralized locations
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: rather than in a server in your closet at the office. Which, again,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: for anybody that's worked for any sort of business, you
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: used to have just a server that would sit in
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: your closet, and that would be where you stored all
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: your files and ran your machines. And now it's all
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: done in a most of the time a centralized hub
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: like Microsoft or Amazon, who do this stuff. If a
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: texter pointed this out to us yesterday, and so I'll
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: read a text someone put fable five on GitHub, that's
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: how locals use. If one is truly building with AI,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: local source is the only secure way. This has been
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: proven countless times already with API access changes, etc. So
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: already there's been this concern among some industries like healthcare
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: and financial services, of hey, if I put information into
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: this system, is it actually secure? Like where does it go?
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Prove to me that it's actually able to be secured
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: and that it's my data and it's not going to
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: be just out there because there's a lot of proprietaries
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: stuff here. Now you have a secondary concern of hey,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: what if I go and build an entire infrastructure on
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: this new fable five model and then the government tells
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: me that I can't use it anymore because it's too powerful.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: I suspect we're getting to a point where we'll see
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: but there is a use case here where we're getting
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: to a point where companies don't want to outsource this,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: and the texture is right that hey, the only real
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: secure way to use AI company on premise on premise,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: and that doesn't necessarily mean literally on premise, but it
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: could mean, hey, you have to build this out customized
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: to yourself and secure the code, and you have this
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: stuff in a very different secured way, meaning different types
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: of infrastructure entirely within what's being built out right now.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: I am I understand this. This is definitely something that
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: you've seen stocks in specific companies that focus on this
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: type of server work benefit that were sort of old
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: legacy tech companies that had missed the cloud adoption phase
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: and now are becoming more in vogue because there is
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: a little bit of perhaps paranoia to have more of
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: servers on premise. But ultimately, from a long term perspective,
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: it just feels so counter to what the last decade
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: has been about with the shift to cloud and the
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: flexibility that it allows, for example, for us to have
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: workers in different states very readily be able to access
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: all sorts of file stores for our small business that
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: we run here. I just don't know if I'm willing
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: to sort of get on board that this is going
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: to be a permit trend.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: It just feels like cloud is dead.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: That technology will either make alterations or people will be
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: more comfortable become more comfortable with having it stick in
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: that portable space.
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: Trust can do a lot more than simply pass assets
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: to your family. Certain trusts may help keep your estate
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: out of probate, protect assets for your children, and in
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: some cases, even help reduce a state tax liability. Cushing
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: and Dolan has created a new guide called Demystifying the
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: Top eight Estate Planning trust. It breaks down some of
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: the most commonly used trust in estate planning, including trust
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: designed to help families plan for long term care, protect
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: beneficiaries with special needs, and help keep life insurance proceeds
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: outside of a taxable estate. You'll also learn why simply
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: having a trust isn't enough, because if it isn't properly funded,
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: it may not accomplish the goals you expect. To get
• 26:32
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• 26:35
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• 26:39
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• 26:43
  Speaker 4: or request the guide online at Legal exchange show dot com.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the views expressed are
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or investment services.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Cushing and Armstrong do not endorse each other and are
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: not affiliated.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: In Nvidia plans to raise at least twenty billion dollars
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: in its first debt sale. Since the start of the
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: AI boom, we've covered Alphabet, Google's parent company, and their
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: plans to raise some eighty billion dollars worth of equity sales.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: We had SpaceX raising seventy five billion dollars. Viapo, Anthropic,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: and open Ai are each expected to raise sixty billion
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: dollars a piece from their IPOs, and Amazon has raised
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: roughly fifty four billion dollars in debt earlier this year.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: I'm complaining different things. Equity sales are different from debt offerings,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: but they are all ways of raising money for companies
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: to spend on different things. And I don't know if
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Video is going to be successful with their debt sale,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: how they define success, I wouldn't know how to measure that.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: What I do since is that the structure of the
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: market is changing dramatically right now. In twenty twenty four
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: s and P five hundred companies spent nearly nine hundred No,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: they spent nine hundred and forty two and a half
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: billion dollars in stock buybacks. So this is companies going
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: out buying stock on the public market and basically removing
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: it from the outstanding shares, putting it in treasury, and
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: buying back their own shares. What we're now seeing is
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: the complete reversal of that. And by the way, that
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: when you buy back your own stock, what you're doing
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: is making every share that's outstanding a little bit more
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: valuable on the margin, because you're removing again, back to
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: the equation that Paul laid out for us, your market
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: capitalization is price of your shares multiplied by the number
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: of outstanding shares. It would seem to me that we
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: are very much moving away from an environment where companies
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: are interested in buying back their stocks and into an
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: environment where they are interested in spending a whole bunch
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: of money on AI development. And I'll be the first
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: to say, like I have criticized stock buybacks in the past,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: not that I want policy to shape them, but I've
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: just looked at it and said, huh, this company has
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: nothing more interesting to spend their cash on than buying
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: back their own shares. That's interesting to me. They don't
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: see a path for growth right now. Everybody seems to
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: see a path for growth. But what does that do
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: to equity markets over the short term if you do
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: not have that lever of just hey, cash is coming
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: to the system. These companies are buying back all their
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: shares using the profits that they're generating. Now, instead, you
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: have this market environment where all of those profits that
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: those companies are generating, instead of buying back shares, are
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: going into R and D. In CAPEX, that is a
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: fundamentally different environment that we're entering into than what we've
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: seen for the last several decades in markets.
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: It is.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: It's a big shift, and ultimately the precarious spot that
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: it could leave markets in is that oftentimes when there
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: is a new technology, there's heavy investment. And you're talking
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: about the mechanics of heavy investment right now from Nvidia
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: and many others raising capital to invest in R and
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: D and to build out this data center capacity. But
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: oftentimes it is not a perfect path of symmetry to
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: the investment generating immediate returns on capital. You hope that
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: it's as efficient as possible, but sometimes there can be
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: a lag there, and that lag would create consternation in
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: the markets and cause potential selloffs if they're not getting
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: the required return on the investment that all these hyper
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: skills are making to build out these AI infrastructure plays,
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: and that looms I think as a market concern. Certainly,
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: not for it appears at least the next three to
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: six months, there continues to be a tremendous amount of
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: enthusiasm to spend on this technology. But that is something
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: that I feel like and as investors you have to
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: sort of just be cognizant of.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Again, this all could be a good thing, because spending
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: a bunch of money in the United States could lead
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: to more jobs, more opportunities for Americans. What I feel
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: comfortable saying, though, is I don't remember a time that
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: I've spent investing where it seems there's more execution risk
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: out there in markets than ever before. Like that's impossible
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: to measure. I fully recognize that, but I can't think
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: of a time that I've spent investing where companies are
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: levering themselves up to such a degree that hey, they
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: really need to execute on these plans and execute well
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: in order for the payoff to be there.
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: To be clear on that lever up phrase like I'm
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: not concerned on these hyperscalers in terms of you know,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: bankruptcy leveling up, like taking on too much stepth but
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: levering up from the sense of like, hey, we're investing
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: a lot. They're investing a lot in this technology. You
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: need to see the returns commensurate with that investment or.
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: As investor, you're not going to be willing to pay
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: the same premium that you are for their shares.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that I can. I can get behind. Let's take
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: a quick break. When we come back. Stack Roulette is next.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven
• 31:48
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• 31:52
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• 32:15
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• 32:18
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• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Time for a bit of stack room. Let here on
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange, Paul, what do you have for us
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: this after this morning? So it's eleven fifty, we still
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: got time ring hungry, so I'm a miss to go.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: I just want to talk about the World Cup a
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: little bit. And regardless of whether you're a soccer fan
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: or not, which I am, so I do enjoy watching
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: the games. But what's come around the local Boston are
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: Greater Boston air where we broadcast out of is Scotland.
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: Many Scottish people have invaded this area and the videos
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: that have come with it have just been tremendous, whether
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: it's the video footage from Fenway Park in the singalongs
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: that they've led, just has been really cool to see
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: their culture sort of infiltrate the Greater Boston area. And
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: so the reason I bring up this subject is to
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: pose the question to both of you guys, which is
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: I was debating with a friend over the weekend, how
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: you would rank just the kind of the countries out
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: there that have the best reputation associated with its people like, Hey,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: that's Scottish guy, he's a real great guy, really friendly, upbeat.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: Just it seems like that's the general sort of way
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: they conduct themselves. Just people that contort themself always just
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: in a nice, friendly way. And so the way I
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: ranked some of the top three were in no particular order, Scotland, Ireland,
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Irish people and Australians. I feel like have the best
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: sort of public Q rating out there is just nice
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: and friendly people to deal with, So I posed to
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: you do I miss any Jamaicans also, I feel like
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: have a good outlook on things that they could be
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: in the top five.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I don't have a cont I don't
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: have a context on this. I agree that the stuff
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: has been really entertaining and fun to watch. But until
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: this moment in time, Scottish wouldn't have even about them.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: I would have forgot about them as a group of
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: individuals that I'd like to hang out with. But now
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I do and have plenty of opportunities to hang out
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: with the Scots and it's pretty entertaining.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: Have you seen any of them around, like any like
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: people just in the your town or anything.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: No. I do find it entertaining that you can't bring
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: a purse into Boston Stadium, Gillette Stadium. But bagpipes are
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: just fine. Not a problem with your bagpipes, which I
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: like that security measure.
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: You could have by the way, you could have easily
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: brought in a purse.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: Okay, nobody did anything. You just walked straight through the turnstile.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: There's no problem. But yes, the videos of all the
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: World Cups and not just you know, like I've seen
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: other videos of people in other parts of the country,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: like experiencing barbecue for the first time, and in all
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: sorts of difference stuff.
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: All you can eat chips in salsa is like baffling
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: Japanese visitors in Texas.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: I've really enjoyed the extra warnings out there that if
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: anybody hasn't seen, like extra warnings about not swimming at
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: some of the beaches, especially if you see seals or
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: sea lions, Like, hey, you might not be familiar with this,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: but you know sharks everywhere around here. So if you
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: didn't see Jaws in the last fifty years and you're
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: visiting for the first time, maybe don't swim on that
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: beach where you see all the seagulls circling the ocean.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: A bunch of sea lions out there. That would be
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: pretty tragic. But yeah, there's been a lot of different
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: aspects of this that have been really fun. Chuck was
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: talking about this yesterday how prices were actually falling, and
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: since that first game, prices have started going up again
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: on these tickets because everybody's wants to experience it. Wow,
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: this looks like a pretty fun take, Like I want
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: to get down to Gillette and watch that game. So yeah,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: another game this evening, and uh, and again we're focusing
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: on the on the stuff here locally, but you know, say,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: things going on in met life Miami, Texas, West Coast
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: as well and pretty entertaining stuff.
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: Another classic rivalry at Boston Stadium tonight. Norway Iraq.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Norway in Irack. They got a lot of chances
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: to face off against each other obviously, and yeah, those
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: two countries will be facing off this evening in Boston Stadium.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: I want to know who responded to this forty eight
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: thousand diner poll. I was surprised by this ranking McDonald's
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: as their number one fast food brand choice. Are you
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: kidding me? People? Some eleven six hundred people ranked McDonald's
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: is their top pick here, And I think this specific
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: question was which fast food restaurant they choose for their
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: next meal, And so the ranking here that you got
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: was McDonald's with nearly forty percent, Chick fil A, Wendy's,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Burger King, Taco, Bill Bell, Subway, KFC, Domino's, Dairy Queen,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: and Rby's rounding out that top ten in terms of
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: most likely consideration there for your next meal. The only
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: thing that comes to mind for me on this is availability.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: So like, if I live in the middle of nowhere,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to find a Chick fil A, I
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: might not even find a Wendy's. I will always find
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: a McDonald's, right, So I suppose there's something to that.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: But I gotta be honest. If I'm given the choice
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: of any of these places, if I'm ranking these ones
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: in my head, Chick fil A is on top, followed
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: by Wendy's. Dairy Queen might be up there. I'll take
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Dominoes over McDonald's, no offense. McDonald's just yeah, I mean, Subway,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Taco Bell, Arby's. Those are all at the bottom of
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: my list. But yeah, McDonald's, I'm not maybe even top three.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: When I saw this, I just immediately thought that Chick
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: fil A won it easily, but shocking that McDonald's. It's
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: got to be a proximity locations thing.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I suppose. So that's all the time we have
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: on today's financial exchange. Markets are mixed as we close
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: out the program. NASDAC now off half a percent, s
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: and P five hundred down one fifth of a percent
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: in the Dow Jones Industrial Average now up nine tenths
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: of a percent. We'll be back tomorrow for a fed day.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Have a great rest of your afternoon, everybody. We'll see
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: you then.