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Taiwan Opposition Leader meets Xi Jinping in China | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Steal podcast. I'm your host Carl Za. Today I have
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: back on our show my guests from Taiwan. Shani. Well,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: actually you're not in Taiwan right now, Shan. You you
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: are in Tendu mainland, China. Yes, yes, yes, Siam.
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  Speaker 2: In Tungu and I'm on my way to shin Jiang
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: in a few days for a research trip.
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  Speaker 1: Nice. Well, since you are back in the motherland, just
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: like the k and the main Taiwan opposition party share
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: woman uh Lee wind Win uh So, I I like, uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, I like some to I like to ask
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  Speaker 1: you some questions because this is actually a big deal
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  Speaker 1: for uh for both sides of the Taiwan straight This
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  Speaker 1: is the first k M t uh CPC leadership meeting
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  Speaker 1: in ten years and and so it's it's a it's
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: a it's a big deal, especially when the ruling current
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: ruling party in Taiwan DPP, is looking a little bit
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: wobble in terms of popular support and and and in
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the context of the US Israeli aggression in West Asia
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: against Yebron, where it's been reported by Wall Street Journal
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: and New York Times that the US ammunition got depleted
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: so low. Now there are Now they're using the reserves
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that they have been saving up for the big confrontation
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: with China in UH East Asia. So they're now pulling
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: all these military asset including US marine expedition units based
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: out of Okinawa and also the fat anti ballistic missile
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  Speaker 1: system in South Korea. They're pulling all these and and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: shipping them to West Asia to protect their golden boy Israel. Right.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So so it's see this context that this new uh
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  Speaker 1: reproach mom between Taiwan and mainland China is taking place.
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  Speaker 1: So I like to take this chance to ask you
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  Speaker 1: some questions, uh, you know because you are yes, especially
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: when you are actually from Taiwan. So number one question
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  Speaker 1: number one, uh, Sandy wins mainland itinerary takes her to
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  Speaker 1: three cities, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Beijing. So she already went
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  Speaker 1: through Nanjing and Shanghai. She's in Beijing right now meeting
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: with President Xi Jinping. But why why are those three
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  Speaker 1: cities and what does this trip tell What does this
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  Speaker 1: itinerary tell us about, you know, her deeper purpose?
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  Speaker 2: I think that's a very good question that it's overlooked
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: by a lot of people. But these three cities are
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  Speaker 2: picked for very particular reasons because the three of them
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  Speaker 2: represent a different layer of cross streight relations. Nijing represents
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: the historical layer and has a deeper meaning for the KMT,
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  Speaker 2: especially because it was once the capital of China and
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  Speaker 2: it was where the KMT's government used to be based.
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  Speaker 2: And it's also the final resting place of doctor Sun
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  Speaker 2: yat Sen, who was the founder of the KMT and
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  Speaker 2: is regarded as the father of modern China. So Nijing
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: carries the historical and ideological foundations of that shared past.
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  Speaker 2: By visiting doctor Sunyasen's mausoleum, it is, you know, paying
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: the respects to where the party came from. So that
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  Speaker 2: provides an internal justification for her visit to her constituents
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and were not constituents because she's not you know what
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  Speaker 2: I mean, the people in Taiwan. While also it is
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  Speaker 2: a shared connection because doctor Sunyasen is highly regarded on
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: on the Chinese mainland and in Taiwan, except by certain
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: Taiwan separatists who are trying to get rid of his legacy.
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  Speaker 2: That's besides the point. Now, Shanghai represents the economic layer,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: because it's a symbol of the deep commercial ties that
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: have developed across Taiwan Strait, especially in recent decades. And finally,
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  Speaker 2: Beijing represents the political layer because it is the center
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: of the CPC's governance. Now, one thing I do want
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  Speaker 2: to point out, and this might upset some pro KMT people,
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  Speaker 2: is that regarding the Nanjing trip, this time, the itinerary
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  Speaker 2: notably did not include a visit to the memorial hall
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  Speaker 2: of the Nijing massacre victims. When Maiingjol visited the mainland
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, that site was included. So it's
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: not like they never visited it before. But why isn't
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  Speaker 2: the current sitting chairwoman visiting something that important? In my opinion,
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  Speaker 2: I think that in some ways it reflects that the
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  Speaker 2: KMT still carries historical and political sensitivities when it comes
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  Speaker 2: to fully confronting the legacy of cross straight and wartime history,
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  Speaker 2: because the ninety massacre is not only a shared national tragedy,
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  Speaker 2: but also a part of the broader history you know,
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  Speaker 2: of the war of resistance against Japan. And here's the
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  Speaker 2: key point, the second United Front between the KMT and
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: the Communist Party. So taking all of this into account.
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  Speaker 2: I think the purpose of this trip is it's an attempt,
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  Speaker 2: an attempt that is still in the early stages to
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  Speaker 2: recalibrate cross straight relations within a rapidly changing global geopolitical environment.
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  Speaker 2: As you mentioned, you know, with all of the stuff
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  Speaker 2: going on in West Asia and whatnot. I think there
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  Speaker 2: are some people on line who are not familiar with
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the situation and they're like, Oh, this is such a
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  Speaker 2: big deal. The KMD leader visiting President's EGMP. That means
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: like reunification is going to happen. Don't be too optimistic.
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  Speaker 2: It's not a bad I'm not saying this trip is
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  Speaker 2: a bad thing, but what we're seeing, in my opinion,
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  Speaker 2: is a recalibration. It's nothing too new. It's the purpose
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  Speaker 2: KMT serves when it's it's that when it's the opposition
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: party and the DPP is in power, the DPP does
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  Speaker 2: things that really angers Beijing and crosses red lines, and
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  Speaker 2: the KMT as like you know, the devil the CPC knows,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: comes in and does damage control. So am I a
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  Speaker 2: fan of the KMT. I think they leave a lot
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  Speaker 2: to be desired when they're in power, but as an
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  Speaker 2: opposition party to the DPP. They're they're quite a formidable
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  Speaker 2: opposition party in many ways. So, yeah, what do you think.
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  Speaker 1: Of Yeah, it's also sandy when is scheduled to visit
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  Speaker 1: US after her trip uh in mainland ends, and I think,
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  Speaker 1: you know, she will probably give the people in Washington
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  Speaker 1: a debriefing, you know what, what she did in mainland.
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  Speaker 1: But I think also, but I do think it's a
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  Speaker 1: it's a politically savvy move on her part because now
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  Speaker 1: having been received graciously on mainland China and giving a
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  Speaker 1: very high profile visit, when she does travel to the
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: United States, this is also like the devil that Taiwan knows,
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  Speaker 1: right and when she she because there's just so much
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: establishment ties between the government in Taiwan and the United States,
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  Speaker 1: and when she does go travel to Washington, people in
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  Speaker 1: the United States will have to take her seriously just
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: because they're like, they have to be nice to her now,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: like she she shows she showed them that we have options.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: We we have options of moving closer to China if
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: you're not to us, and and and then you know,
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  Speaker 1: we have alternative to turn to. So so for her
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  Speaker 1: and her party, this is a fair strategic move and
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  Speaker 1: and and and I think she will be received well
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  Speaker 1: in Washington, and you know there's will be some there
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: will be some bargaining happening behind the scenes. But I
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: she did you you you brought up that her visit
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: to the sonyats and Mausolian and one of the things
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  Speaker 1: she mentioned, Uh, well, she she gave a speech at
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a Masolean and she said kut sciences guan means and
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that Taiwan ut sciences trail sounds, which basically English means
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  Speaker 1: on mainland morning. Sonyatsin's death is only natural and entirely
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: above board in Taiwan. However, doing the same required going
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: to great Land care fully, cautiously and almost in hiding.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Uh why well, why what? Why? Why why did she?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Uh why did she bring that up?
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Well, she's talking about when doctor senes mean by that. Yeah,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: so she's talking about back in nineteen twenty five when
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Sonya Sen passed away. Right now, Sonya Sen was the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: leader of who was, you know, an important figure on
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: the Chinese mainland in China was the Republic of China,
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  Speaker 2: So mourning his death publicly was very natural. It's like
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  Speaker 2: when you know, previous Chinese leaders died like uh, Chairman
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Malzadoon or Dong Xiaoping. You know, their deaths were born
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  Speaker 2: publicly because they were important historical figures, political figures that passed.
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  Speaker 2: But the thing about Sonya Sen and Taiwan is back
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: in nineteen twenty five, Taiwan was still a Japanese colony now,
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  Speaker 2: I mean as a colony, the people here were kind
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: of were taught to be loyal to the Japanese emperor. However,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: patriotic intellectuals in Taiwan nonetheless revered doctor Sonyet Sin. And
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  Speaker 2: because of this, Japan saw the ideas of doctor Sonya
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  Speaker 2: Sen as a threat to their colonial rule. So therefore,
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  Speaker 2: mourning his passing in Taiwan was not something that could
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  Speaker 2: be done so openly, like oh, our he is our
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  Speaker 2: the father of our country. You know, they couldn't call
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  Speaker 2: him things like that because like the Japanese would be like,
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  Speaker 2: your country is Japan, it is not China. Now, I
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: mean on the mainland, it's different because he's the he's
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: a leader of you and also just the father of
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: modern China. So when she says mourning, come above board
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  Speaker 2: on the mainland of being like kind of hush hush
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  Speaker 2: on underground in Taiwan. She's drawing a historical comparison between
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  Speaker 2: two very different political environments, one under which the ideal
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: of doctor Sonyat Sun could be expressed openly and one
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  Speaker 2: where it was very constrained under colonial rule. And I think,
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  Speaker 2: do you want to talk about the significance of her
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  Speaker 2: bringing Taiwan into all of this even though you know,
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  Speaker 2: when Sonya Sen was alive, Taiwan was still a Japanese colony.
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  Speaker 2: Do you want to get into that?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, definitely.
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  Speaker 2: So I think what's very different about Chum d Win
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  Speaker 2: from many other KMT leaders, Like you know, there were
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: some exceptions here and there, but Chum d one she
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  Speaker 2: is only half wife sonn Her father came from Udina
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  Speaker 2: and I believe, and her mother is a local to Taiwan,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: meaning her mother's side of the family has been in
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Taiwan for centuries and experienced Japanese rule. So her talking
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: about this is talking as a reference to how during
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Japanese rule, expressions of Chinese identity and attachment through figures
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  Speaker 2: like doctor Sonyatsen carried a different you know, social and
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  Speaker 2: political context that somebody who was on the mainland in
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  Speaker 2: the twenties thirties forties couldn't really understand, right, And she's
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: saying this as somebody who comes from a family that
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  Speaker 2: has both the historical memory of Taiwan's colonial period, while
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  Speaker 2: also as the chairwoman of the KMT who you know
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  Speaker 2: naturally respects doctor Sonyasen, and she can understand how people
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  Speaker 2: just like her could not proudly be who they were
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  Speaker 2: and had to express their convictions almost in secret. So it's, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: her mentioning this whole thing and bringing Taiwan into it
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  Speaker 2: is a signal to both the mainland and the Taiwan that, like, hey,
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  Speaker 2: people in Taiwan, I'm one of you. And it's also
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: a counter to like the sycophancy of Richino's administration to Japan.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, because the current Taiwan leader, like Hinda, he actually
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: was he actually, you know, without mentioning Sandy Winn's name directly,
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  Speaker 1: he you know, he's a he's he's the one that
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: that really push him for, which is Washington's agenda to
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: to to raise up the Taiwan's own defense budget in
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: order to finance more purchase of more weapons from the
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: United States. You know, right now there's a huge there's
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a bill that's been pushed by his government to increase
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the military spending by forty billion dollars over the next
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: eight years. Of course, most of that forty billion dollars
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: goes to purchase American weapons, and Sandy went by calling
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: for the piece across the straight and a greater cross
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: straight engagement. You know she's working in counter to that.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So what what Wow like Chinda argue, what he's doing
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: is peace through strength, right, this is the term you
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: also often hear in the Anglo press, in especially in
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: US media. So how do you see this these two approaches?
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Her approach obviously is just to to to try to
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to reconciliate, to bring the temperature down somewhat. Uh in
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: the cross straight relationship where uh like Chindo the current
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: setting quote unquote President of Republic of China on on Taiwan,
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  Speaker 1: he is adopting a very confrontational approach to our mainland
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: and also leaning heavily towards Japan and the United States
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: for defense. You know, how how do you see this too? Approaches?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: You give us your two cents.
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  Speaker 2: I think the two different approaches are just different reactions
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  Speaker 2: to the same reality, and that reality is that the
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Chinese mainlands, military, economic, cultural, political strength is on the uprise,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: and that's the main factor of peace in the region.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Because during the last election, let's go back to how
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the KMT campaigned, right, The KMT campaigned on the promise
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: that only it could bring peace and reconciliation across the
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Taiwan straight but it never clearly explained how that peace
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: would be achieved in order to have a concrete, long
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: term framework for reconciliation or reunification. And so even though
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: most people in Taiwan prefer stability and peace, that sentiment
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: alone was not enough to prevent somebody like Naichindo from
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: being elected, especially when the opposition, you know, the KMT
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: was fragmented, the opposition against the DPP, it was fragmented
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: between the KMT and the new third party, the TPP,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: the Taiwan People's Party. So Nichingda may have one with
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: just forty percent of the vote. But these like feel
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: good promises of peace alone, I'm saying alone fails to work,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: fails to effectively challenge people like Naichinda and prevent them
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: from coming to power. And I think the reality is
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: the deeper factor shaping Crosstreet stability today is not campaign
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: rhetoric in Taiwan, but a broader balance of power. Over
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: the past decade, you know, the continue the continued economic rise,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: and the growing military strength of the Chinese men of
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: the Chinese mainland have fundamentally shifted the strategic environment right.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: And at the same time, many people people in Taiwan
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: who are once wary of the mainland have gradually warmed
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: up to it, not because the promises from the KMT
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: or any other politicians, but because now they can see
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: the mainlands development for themselves and interact directly with the
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: people here people on the mainland through travel and modern
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: social media. I think modern social media is the big factor,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: because people have been traveling back and forth on the
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: two sides of the strait. But modern social media like
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: do like TikTok, things like that, just direct contact and
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: direct open discussion have shifted a lot of people's opinions,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: maybe not necessarily towards reunification, but being open to the
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: idea that hey, maybe not everything that the DPP tells
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: us in Taiwan is true now. I therefore think the
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: proposed forty million, forty billion dollar increase in military spending
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: should be understood in this context and not a local
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: policy decision. It's I think all of this is part
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: of a broader strategic reaction to these changes, encouraged by
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: force says that lie beyond Taiwan, namely, you know, on
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: the other side of the Pacific Washington. You know. So
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: when we look at the approaches of chilewhen and Laichindo,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: I think, like I said, they're reacting to the same reality.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: And that reality is simple. The rise of the Chinese
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: mainland is reshaping the region. So in the end, at
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, lasting peace across the Strait
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: is not determined by what politicians in Taipei say during
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: election campaigns or what they say in these sorts of meetings,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: But in the long term rise of it's determined by
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the long term rise of the Chinese Mainland, which will
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: fundamentally shift the balance of power between Beijing and Washington.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I agree with that assessment because really, like the current
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Taiwan issue is really a US China issue, and the
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: rise of China, especially in relative to the United States,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: that's what's really altering the equation here. And I just
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: saw a tweet on x you know, somebody to a
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: policy tensor. He tweeted out that Iran has already fired
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: as many srbms and mrbm Those are medium range ballistic
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: missiles and short range ballistic missiles. So Pendagon has told
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the Congress that were estimated to be the Chinese arsenal
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: last year. So Iran has launched roughly five thousand, one
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six years two thousand, one hundred eighty
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: one ballistic missiles and fifty nine cruise missiles since the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: war began. So Pendagon, when they in the congressional hearing,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: they told the US Congress that's about the the size
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: of arsenal that China has. But you know, so there's
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: obviously a severe underestimated of the Chinese power on the
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: US side, and I think the people are in US
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: are also waking up to it. If they cannot take
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: on Irang in West Asia, there's no way in hell
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the United States military will be able to come from
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: China in the Western Pacific. And yes, so, and also
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the push for Taiwan to increase forty billion military budget
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: by forty billion dollars. This is also down at the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: same time as Siddy when is visiting mainland China, there's
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: actually a US congressional delegation that's visiting Taiwan, and the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: explicit purpose is to push Taiwan to pass their defense
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: bill to increase their spending to forty billion dollars and
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: which again, as we mentioned, mostly goes into purchase of
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: US weapons and those. This is the same policy, by
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the way, US has carried out throughout the world. US
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: is also pressuring natal countries, you know, in Europe, to
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: also increase their defense budget to five percent their GDP.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And again it's not to financing purchasing European weapons, to
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: finance and purchase American weapon platform and and and and uh.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: But the reality is traditionally Taiwan has spent a lot
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of money uh buying American weapons. Taiwan is one of
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the best customer of US military industrial complex. Yet Taiwan
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: even they Taiwan pays the money up front and they
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: have to wait for decades to take delivery because the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: US manufacturing has been so hollow out that US military
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: industrial complex simply can't deliver on time, and you know,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the backlog goes to decades. It's if Taiwan pays them,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: you know, the forty billion dollars right now, they're going
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: to have to take twenty years, thirty years, forty years
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: before they can take delivery of what's been promised to them. So, uh,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: that is that is a reality worth speaking of. But
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: then there's there's an issue of Japan, because you know
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the Japanese Prime Minister.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Can I can I add something before we go into that.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I think if you look at the US Congressional delegation
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: going to Taiwan and the way they're pressuring the administration there,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: have you noticed something about the a T and the
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: way it pressures the Taiwan administration because usually okay, let's
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: just pretend that the ai T is an actual embassy.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I mean it is a de facto embassy.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: With that, Yeah, for my audience, we got to break
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: down to the basics. So the United States, after ninety
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: after the normalization of ties between People's Republic of China
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: and Washington, they have a switch recognition found the government
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: on Taiwan to the government in Beijing, which means they
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: no longer have a formal diplomatic ties with the so
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: called Republic of China on Taiwan. So instead of embassy
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: on Taiwan, they have what they called American.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Institute in Taiwan.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: What's tea, Well, American Institute in Taiwan, which is serve
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: as a de facto embassy Ai t Okay, sorry, go ahead, Yeah,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I mean they.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Do things like if you're a US citizen and you
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: need to get your passport review, that's the new that's
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: where you go. It's the American Imperialist in Taiwan basically.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: And usually see, if you are the ai T or
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: an embassy, you work directly with whichever government is incumbent, right,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: you don't really talk with the opposition. So right now,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: for example, the Chinese embassy in America, if it has
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: any sort of thing that it wants to discuss with
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: the American government, it talks to the trumpetman. It doesn't
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: talk to the Democrats, like the leader the Democratic leadership, right,
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: So I mean ai T they're like meeting with both
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: the KMT and the TPP, neither of whom are incumbent,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: but together have the majority and the legislature and the legislature,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: and they're pressuring them to like approve of the bill.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: So it's I mean, at the at the end of
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: the day, it's it's very obvious. This isn't really something
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: that Naichingdal himself is necessarily pushing. I mean, he's he
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: wants to push it because he's a very good latdog
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: of US Empire. But the command's not coming from him.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: It's coming from great forces that are much greater than him.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: See for people who don't understand the DPP, the Democratic
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: Progressive Party, the current UH ruling party of Taiwan, they
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: are a puppet of the US. However, I say the KMT.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: People have said, oh, the KMT is just a puppet
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: of America too. I would argue that it's a zombie
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: because I mean it's after nineteen forty nine. It's basically
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: it's a corpse of what it once was. And this zombie,
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I mean zombies are controlled remotely by like some sort
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: of like necromancer like reanimation dude. But this zombie still
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: has some of its own ideas, and the US doesn't
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: necessarily like it. It likes the DPP more because the
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: DPP listens more. The KMT has too many ideas of
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: its own. Even though internally factionally the pro US faction
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: wins out, there still is a more pro beaging faction
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: that doesn't really often get spoken of. But yes, well
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: yeah on the Japan thing.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so is this. But there's a there's a
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: third angle, right, there's a there's an issue with Japan.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I think this is why, uh, you know, you kind
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: of brought it up when you mentioned that Sandy wentz
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: visit to nineteen this time did not include a visit
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: to the Museum of uh that was dedicated to the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Rape of nine King. Because Japan does play a role
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: here that the Japanese Prime Minister Sanayatakeiichi famously declear that
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Japanese military would get involved in case of a quote
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: unquote Taiwan contingency, which is a pretty blatant violation of
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: the Chinese sovereignty. Right, why China is very upset. Like
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: from Chinese perspective, the Taiwan issue is to be worked
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: out between the both sides of Taiwan's trade, the Japanese
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: sue bought out, and especially with the historical memory of
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Japan's colonization of Taiwan and Japan's invasion of mainland China,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: this is not looking uh, you know, look upon kindly
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: and and and for DPP's part, the Luker and ruling
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: party on Taiwan. They're not only obsequious to United States,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: they're also very like you say, they're very acting, very
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: what's that term? Uh uh, sycophantic to towards Japan as well.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: And and so in the in the speech when Sandy when
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: did when Sandy one visited nine Geen, she gave us
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: speech and she actually invoked the name of Japan eleven times, uh,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: you know, and she brought up, as you mentioned, Japan's
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: colonial rule over Taiwan and it's war of aggression against
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: of China. And this this again can start stance in
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: sharp contrast to watch Japanese prime ministers and night take
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Ichi had said a few months ago, what what do
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: you make of Sandy Win's remark? You know, like the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: does it does it? Does it matter that she set
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: them in Nanjing? And does it matter that she mentioned
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Japan eleven times her speech?
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I think before we answer this question, I want to
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: get into some of the history of the DPP and
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: the KMT and why the DPP is so sycophantic towards Japan. Right,
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the tpp's main goal has never been Taiwan separatism. Taiwan
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: separatism has just been its rhetoric that it uses to
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: sell the idea of getting them into power, and it's
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: done by manipulating identity politics within Taiwan. Now, if you
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: look at the history of the DPP and the people
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: who are at the very top, the big the big
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: patrons of the party and everything, and the backgrounds of
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: some of the top leadership of the DVP, where did
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: they come from. They are descendants of I'm not going
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: to say Japanese people, that's a lot that's a common misconception. No,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: they're descendants of the local landed aristocracy that enjoyed a
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: lot of benefit from Japanese rule. When Japan ruled Taiwan,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: these people acted like the Kapo regimes in the mafia,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: like they had their own little I mean, the rural
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: areas was basically governed by them. So then when the
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: KMT came, they naturally thought, oh, so you know, we
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: got a new dawn in the mafia. We're gonna listen
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: to them, but we're gonna still things are still going
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: to be the same as usual. But then the KMT
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: comes in. After having learned difficult lessons on the mainland,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: they're like, okay, we're doing land reform in Taiwan, okay,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: So these local landed aristocracy people were really pissed. And
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: then because democracy was suspended in Taiwan from nineteen forty
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: nine until nineteen ninety two or or the late nineteen eighties.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: But like we can just say, the very end of
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: martial law, the last rendoms of martial law ended in
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: nineteen ninety two. That meant the highest levels of government
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: were dominated by the National Assembly that was elected on
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: the mainland. So you got a situation where highest levels
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: of government in Taiwan are ruled by mainlanders who were
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: elected on the mainland and came to Taiwan supposed and
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: this was supposed to be a temporary arrangement before national reunification.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: And that meant this Atlantic aristocracy was relegated to local
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: governance in Taiwan, not to the highest power. So during
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the democratization movement, a lot of it was, you know,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: during the opposition movement against the KMT, a huge part
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: of it was in martial law. We want democracy, but
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: they want democracy so that they can get themselves elected
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: into higher positions of power. Right, because now the very
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: same DPP that fought for democracy is eroding the democracy
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: because they want to stay in power. You know, they
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: want to prevent the opposition from taking too much power.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: But I mean, you're not going to win people over
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: by saying, oh, I just want power. So of course
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: you have this whole thing. You had this Taiwan separatist angle,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: but you also have like the liberal democratic angle, human
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: rights angle and all of that. And to me, when
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: when she was part of the DPP, yeah, it's really significant.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: She used to be a member of the DPP back
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: in the eighties. She represented like the you know, the
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: liberal democracy type people who opposed the KMT for its
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: authoritarianism and all of that. But then after the DPP
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: got all of its demands, okay, this Taiwan martial law
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: was in, the opposition parties were allowed, freedom of press
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: was restored, freedom of speech was restored. The DPP needed
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to differentiate itself from the KMT in order to win
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: electoral politics, so they leaned heavily into you know, Taiwan
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: versus Mainlander and like, Taiwan's been like overrun by these
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: mainlanders and the KMT for so long. It's time for
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: us to take our what they call their country back
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: and say when was not really from that tradition. So
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: that's when she left the party, right. I mean, she
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: grew up in the military dependency village. There's no way
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: she grew up not thinking she was Chinese. So she
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: does not have the emotional ties with being pro Japan,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: you know what I'm saying, whereas some of these other
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: DPP people, because whether it's because their personal interest or
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: because of their class background, family background, they might view
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Japan in a more positive light. But someone like Chimney Win,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: no way. And I think the significance of mentioning them
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: eleven times is because, like I said earlier, matching those
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: administration has been very, very very like obsequious to Japan,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: portraying them not as you know, our former colonizers, but
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: as an equal partner in regional security, with the hope
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: that Japanese militarists will support his anti beajing agenda on
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: the world stage. So I think Jimni Win's remarks are
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: a direct counter to that attitude and are intended to
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: serve as a reminder that, you know, the Japanese were
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: once aggressors in Taiwan, and her saying this in Nijing
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: is clearly a response by the comments of Takaichi, Japan's
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Prime minister, because she was all like, oh taian, like,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: if if Taiwan were to come under attack, then it
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: will be a life threatening, a survivor situation for Japan.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: But history has shown us the exact opposite was true.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: This not too long after Taiwan was stolen from China
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: and colonized by the Japanese. It was the rest of
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: China that faced a literal life or death situation and
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: fought the fourteen year long struggle to defeat the Japanese.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well said, Well said, So, how do you think
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: her speech is receiving Taiwan though, you know, like like
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: like obviously her speech is we see lair wa on
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: mainland China, But how is her trip right now being
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: being seen in Taiwan by by the by the public
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: on Taiwan.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: I think it's a fresher breath there, because in Taiwan,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: unless you are because like Ching, his supporters that he had,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: that he his remaining sup are all like the hardline
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: or DPP. Everyone else has either is either just like
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: checked out from politics or there's a lot of people
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: in the DPP that have defected to the Taiwan People's Party,
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: the new third party, right, and then of course there's
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: also the the KMT. It's really strange, like the KMTS
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: like popularity, like it increases very quickly, but then and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: then it sustains for a while, and then it drops
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: very quickly, and then it stays low for a while.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: So right now, like the KMT is somewhat like making
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: a bit of a comeback, and it's just a fresh
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: of breath there because everyone's sick of ni Chingdo. That's
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: that's just it. Everyone's sick of Nichingdo, And it's her
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: being just just being willing to essentially call out the
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: obsequious attitudes of the DPP. It's like, hey, you were elected,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: albeit by forty percent of the vote, to represent the
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: people of Taiwan, not the interest of Japan or America.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: And I think that's the message that most people in
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Taiwan can agree with. If you are the leader of
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: the Taiwan area, you should be Taiwan first. You should
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: not be Japan first. You should not be America first.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: It's that simple.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I think that that sentiment a lot Americans can relate to,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: you know, even you know, like a lot of many
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Americans that elected Trump to be America first, not to
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: be Israel first. So so you know what what what
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: she was? You mentioned that, you know, one reason that
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: any one chose to stop by Shanghai because the economic
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: ties you know, between Taiwan mainland China, and because Shanghai
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: is also like the main economic hub and engine of
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: the Chinese economy.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: She got a so apparently she had bubble tea delivered
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: to her by a jewel in Shanghai, and she, you know,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: she praised the main mainland's rapid growing, low altitude economy.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Is this? Uh? Is this?
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Is this something that's the eye opening for people back
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: in Taiwan that watching her trip and not just by
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: exposing them to kind of the economic reality in China,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: you know, just just because.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: It's a very good question. I think a lot of
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: people in Taiwan, though, especially younger people that consume like
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: modern social media, right, they know about these things. But
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: there's a certain segment of Taiwan's population that consumes nothing
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: but DPP media, namely UH, Sandy Means and ZOSPA together
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: we call them Saminsu, and their portrayal of the mainland
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: is kind of like Pagyam's portrayal of the DPRK maybe
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: not that extreme, but a lot of times it falls
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: into the whole like very very ridiculous territory about how
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the mainland is still like very backwards. And I mean
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: you've seen videos of like some taxi driver in Taiwan
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: asking a mainland visitor saying, you guys don't have these
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: sorts of skyscrapers on the mainland back in twmble, do you,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: And it's like, are you kidding? Timbo has much more
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: skyscrapers than Taipei. So I think it's eye opening for
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: people like them because somebody, like somebody when visiting the mainland,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: it has to be reported in Taiwan, even by the opposition.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, they can through commentary say some things like, oh,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: this is all just staged and fake. I mean it's
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: certainly like staged, but it's not fake. It's stage because
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: she's there and they're doing a demonstration and it's for
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: the cameras. And I think picking bubble Tea is also
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: like a gesture of giving face to Taiwan. Why because
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: bubble Tea came from Taiwan, but it's embraced by the
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: rest of the world. It's very popular on the mainland,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: and it's like saying, hey, look at how popular your
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: like cultural product has become all over or the mainland.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: In fact that you know, people in the West often
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: talk about the two sides of the Strait as if
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: like we're North and South Korea with very limited contact.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: But on the mainland every single day, even though the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: influence is waning compared to like in the early two
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: thousands or like the nineties or the eighties, you still
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: see like taiwan influence everywhere. You see like sol jal
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: and like the one of them Tryinga's number one pop
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: stars from Taiwan, like him and his like billboards like
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: promoting tutor watches for example. So yeah, but I think
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: the significance of this drone drone thing. One thing that
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: I want people to think about is this, in the past,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: cooperation between the KMT and the mainland was limited to
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: you know, relatively narrow channels, and because of that crosstraight
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: business cooperation did not always bring broader benefits to the
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: general public. And it's because businessmen from Taiwan their priority
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: is how to make money from working with the mainland.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: It's not necessarily how do I benefit the people of Taiwan.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: And now there's the argument that them benefiting trickles down right.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: But then when it comes to tech and your primary
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: focus is how do you monetize these technologies? Then it
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: sometimes it leads a huge gap to be filled. And
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a huge part of that perhaps is because the economy
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: in Taiwan is not planned the same way as it
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: is on the mainland. So when it comes to emerging
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: sectors like the low altitude economy, if we want ordinary
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: people in Taiwan to benefit from technological development in the
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: same way that people on the mainland increasingly do, I
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: think we really need to reflect on the existing model
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: of commercial exchange and crosstrate cooperation. If the rapid development
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: of technology on the mainland is something that I think
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: most people can see very clearly with their own eyes,
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: but the real question is how does all of this
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: development benefit the ordinary people in Taiwan as well? And
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: I think this is a challenge that people on both
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: sides of the Taiwan stretch to think about very seriously,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: because I think this question, if addressed correctly, can bring
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: the Chinese people of the two sides closer together. But
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: if not taken care of carefully, it could create more
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: of a distance.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very well said. In fact, you know, people might
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: not realize even with the current you know, basically openly
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: separatist Taiwan leader in Taiwan underlights in the administration, the
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: ties the business, there's still a lot of business dies
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: between Taiwan and mainland China. I just saw some numbers here,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: you know, in the first in the first ten months
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: of last year, over six four hundred new Taiwan founded
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: businesses were set up in mainland China, with actual investment
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: hitting one point seven billion dollars, up fifty three percent
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: year on year, and and and and and you know
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: this is uh My guess is uh is this is
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: dry driven by the growth of mainland China's economy itself.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: You know, the gravitational pull of mainland China is just
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: so great because a bigger, march, larger market. Are more
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: people from Taiwan genuinely choose to come to Mainlan Mainland
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: China to do business our career study, regardless of the
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: political tensions at the top.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Well, first off, I think I think one thing that
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: we need to address is the big element in the
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: elephant in the room is that there are some people
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: who believe that increased economic ties necessarily means everything else
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: will fall into place. It's kind of like the A
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: lot of globalists think that too, when it comes to
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: creating like a global cosmopolitan culture, where it's like, oh, ify,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: if everyone's like trades more, then we'll all assimilate with
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: each other and become like one common global community. And
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I think that's I think that's very naive and just
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: not necessarily a good thing, and it's just wrong. What
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: I do want to say is this, Yes, there are
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of people from Taiwan choosing to come to
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: the mainland to do business because there are opportunities as
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: the mainland continues to grow stronger, the movement of Taiwan's resources,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: including human resources, you know, coming to the mainland. It's
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: to a certain extent, an in inevitable trend. But this
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: process can potentially deepen the ideological and political divisions within
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: Taiwan itself. Because let's put it this way, the people
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: of Taiwan who have the ability and resources to develop
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: their careers on the mainland tend to represent you know,
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: particular social strata, while those who lack opportunities or resources
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: are often tied to need to say this, but Taiwan's
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: increasingly uncertain future. So to some extent, this phenomenon, I
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: would say is also act of the product of the
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: current situation in which the two sides of the Taiwan
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Strait are not yet reunified. So I think it's also
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: important to note that those who move from Taiwan who
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: live and work on the mainland do not necessarily become
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: supporters of Chinese reunification. On the contrary, many of them
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: benefit from the current situation in which two sides the
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: two sides are not yet reunified. So what we see
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: emerging in Taiwan are essentially two groups, one group that
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: faces a future that appears as uncertain as the status
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: of crosstrate relations, you know, the people who don't have
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: the ability or resources to come to the mainland, and
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: the other group they might have. They may have very
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: bright prospects, but those prospects are built are partially built
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: upon the very conditions created by the unresolved crosstrate situation.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: So this also shows us that, like I said, increased
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: business contact does not necessarily lead to political integration or
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: emotional identification among the people. And this is why the
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: growth of crosstrate economic ties and the persistence of political
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: tensions in Taiwan are not necessarily contradictory phenomena, and in
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: many ways I think they actually or they can actually
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: reinforce each other, you know. So what's driving the I
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: do want to say that there is an ideological and
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: attitude shift in Taiwan, but I would say that the
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: main driver of that is not the trade ties between
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: the two sides, but it's the fact that you know,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: a lot of young people in Taiwan, the ones that
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: were once described as can and do or natural supporters
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: of independence because they were because they were brought up
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: in a generation where Chinese Chinese culture education was was
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: like de emphasized. These people have begun to re examine
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the mainland and some have even begun to rediscover or
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: in some cases, you know, discover for the first time
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: a sense of Chinese identity. And this shift comes, like
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: I said, not from increased business ties, but mostly from
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: growing people to people contact. And like I said earlier,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: you know, in the Internet age, you know, popular culture
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: from the mainland spreads very quickly in Taiwan through modern
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: social media and things that were many things that were
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: just obvious truths about the mainland in the past, that
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: were previously obscured by traditional media are gradually becoming more
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: widely known. And all of this has created a kind
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: of social and cultural reaction that we haven't seen before,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: with this level of curiosity among young people in Taiwan,
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: with more frequent and direct exchanges between ordinary people of
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: both sides of the strait. I mean, during the my
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: Angel years from twenty eight to twenty twenty sixteen, these
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: sorts of like trade ties were at an all time high,
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: but then the people were kind of growing apart, and
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: I think the missing factor back then was like the
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: low level people to people contact that we're seeing happening
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: a lot today. And one thing that I think the
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: KMT and the Communist Party of China really need to
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: think about is how do we further expand these people
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: to people exchanges, because this is very crucial in shaping
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: how people in Taiwan understand their Chinese identity in the future.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to ask you a question, and you're
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: going to have to solo a little bit because my
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: baby is crying. I want to see what's going on
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: you know, for our international viewer who may be less
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: familiar with history, can you just give a quick rundown
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: why Beijing feels so strongly that Taiwan is part of China.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Why is the idea of separation seeing as an absolute
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: red line? You know, help us understand that.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: It's kind of like Abraham Lincoln. It's kind of like
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Abraham Lincoln thinking that. Sorry, okay, I think it's kind
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: of like Abraham Lincoln considering the Confederate States seceeding to
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: be a red line that was crossed. But also, at
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: the same time, the comparison is not quite the same.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: See Taiwan was taken from China by Japan and the
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: first time of Japanese War in eighteen ninety five. After
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: a prolonged struggle against Japanese imperialism during the Second World War,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Taiwan was returned to China in nineteen forty five as
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: part of the post war settlement. Although China was later
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: divided across the Taiwan straight after nineteen forty nine as
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: a result of the Chinese Civil War, the underlying reality
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: is that there remains only one China. The legal systems
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: of both sides, both Beijing and Taipei still maintains that
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: there is only one China and that Taiwan is a
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: part of China. Disagreement is the definition of China. Beijing
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: says it's the People's Republic of China. The laws in
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Taipei say it's the so called Republic of China. But
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: this is all our own internal problem to resolve, and
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: the only relevant question is how reunification should be pursued.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Now we have people like Nichina entering this so called
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: Republic of China government, and when they say that, like, oh,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: the two sides of the Strait don't belong to one another,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: that's a blatant violation of the very same constitution that
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: he was sworn in to serve. So yeah, the fact
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: of the matter remains that the Taiwan question is a
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: matter that the Chinese people on both sides of the
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: strait can and should discuss among ourselves. But what is
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: not acceptable to Beijing is for Taiwan to be used
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: by external powers as a strategic wedge against the Chinese mainland.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: So from Beijing's perspective, it's not about feelings or anything
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: like that. It's about the post war order and the
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: subsequent International Framework and upholding that, because if you can't
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: even uphold this, then what does what does like international
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: law and all that even matter, you know, and the
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: international framework it also includes the U and General Assembly
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: Resolution twenty seventy eight and the One China Principle, which
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: reflect the continuity of one China even if the question
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: of reunification for now remains unresolved.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: We had a discussion yesterday about the Taiwan main opposition
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: party came teach air women send me when traveling to
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: mainland China and meet with President shi Jinping, but the
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: discussion was cut short because I had to do babysitting duties.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: So today we we like to continue our conversation about
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the cross straight relationship. There are some questions I like
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: to continue to ask you Shan Yu, since you give
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a unique perspective front Taiwan. This is the first KMT
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: mainland visit in ten years, the first KMT leadership to
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: UH you know, CPC leadership meeting in ten years. But
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: we have seen similar milestones before. You know, you have
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: the KMT chairman the Enza and back in two thousand
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: and oh five, and UH Wohoon in two thousand and
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: oh eight. And then Eric Chu in twenty fifteen. Then
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: again the KMT chairwoman Home shows who back in twenty sixteen.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, that was ten years ago. So all the
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: previous visit also carry their own significance. Now given given words,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: a cross shwaight relationship stands today, you know, because a
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: lot have shifted, a lot of things have changed in
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: the last ten years. What do you realistically expect to
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: come out of this current visit byes a new one
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: to mainly China.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's necessarily up to her herself, like
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: what comes of it or anything like that. I think
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: it largely depends on multiple factors, including the US, but
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: also locally in Taiwan, the upcoming elections, both the mayoral
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: elections of this year. So this year it's they're re
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: electing the mayors of the cities and the counties, the
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: county magistrates, and what's important is seeing if the KMT
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: and perhaps the TPP can maintain a majority of these localities,
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: right because a huge part of it's kind of like
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: the midterm elections. If you want to engage the performance
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: of parties, it's like what happens during the mid terms,
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: and right now It's like if Chainan or Gaucho flips
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: blue to the KMT, then it's a good sign that
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: the KMT will be able to regain power in twenty
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: twenty eight. Now, if it's able to regain executive power
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: and then also maintain the majority of the legislature, then
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: we can expect cross straight relations to return to something
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: more similar to the mangel Era. In other words, I
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: would say the real significance of this visit will ultimately
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: depend not on just what is said during the trip,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: but on the overall political direction in Taiwan over the
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: next few years, and also how the KMT manages cross
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: straight relations if they regain power. And like I said earlier,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: one thing that's really different between now and the ma
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: angel Era is during the ma angel Era, crosstrate ties,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: you know, on the business and political levels were very positive,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: but between the people that left a lot to be desired,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: especially as the people who benefited from, you know, increased
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: cross straight ties seem to be from like a certain
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: political class, whereas the average people didn't necessarily feel all
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: of the benefits, even if they did trickle down. But
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: the one thing that's different now is with the advent
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: of modern social media, because you know, social media back
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: in twenty eight to twenty sixteen was still like compared
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: to today in its infancy. Today we have more direct
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: contact between the people on the two sides, So that
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: might be a little game gentry. You imagine the mangel
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: era with the modern day level of contact. There could
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: be something very different. So we'll just have to wait
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: and see.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, another interesting fact I just picked up is that
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Deny one actually said she actually promised she's not seeking
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: election in twenty eighteen presidential election in Taiwan. So that
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: means eight So that means the KMT presidential candidate will
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: be somebody else. I mean. Obviously, her visit to mainland
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: China this time was very well received. She got a
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: very high profile uh visit.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: The mainland government really rolled out the red carpet for her.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: But there's still a lot of there's still a bit
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: of uncertainty what's gonna come. You know, First of all,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: the there's still the midterm election in November uh in Taiwan.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to see how KMT perform in those elections. Again,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: I think those elections are KMTS to lose because you know,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: people are tired second tire DPP right now. But again
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: there there's still you know.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: You know what large yeah right now, because the opposition
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: to the TPP is split, like the KMT is the
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: bigger opposition, but if it's just the KMT it's there,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: it might not be enough to tip the scale. What
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: you need is and to be honest, the Taiwan People's
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Party the new third party right now out there in
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: a quasi alliance with the KMT. But once to say,
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: this quasi alliance can't be broken. So what they really
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: need to make sure is both parties need to coordinate
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: with each other. Let's say like in this one city,
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Let's say like for example, when Shinzu TPP has advantage, okay,
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: KMT will be like, okay, we're gonna throw our full
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: support behind the TPP candidate. We're not going to put
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: out our own And then let's say in Tan is
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: very difficult for any anyone but DPP, but like Shielong
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Jim from the KMT has like the most most promise,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: TPP needs to be like, okay, we're gonna throw our
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: full support behind Shieong Jim and then not pout our
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: own candidate to support the vote. This kind of coordination
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: needs to happen, and I think it will happen because
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: difficult lessons were learned back in twenty twenty four when
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: the KMT and the TPP were in talks were running
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: on a joint ticket within that felt through because they
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: couldn't agree on terms and what ended up happening was
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Ni ching Tho winning with just forty percent of the vote.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Uh, well, I was following the a Twitter account
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: of another Taiwanese commentator, Angelica Um, and she actually mentioned
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: there's there there's a there's a bit of a split
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: within the KMT, you know, even toward Sendy Whins Mainland
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: visits some some there's some old timer in KMT field
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Seni Wo may have moved too fast on this reconciliation
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: track and that might endanger the KMT election prospect. So,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: uh do you foresee that that could be a problem.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: There's a KMT factionalism which always existed, you know, existed forever.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: It's always existed. The only thing that prevented the factionalism
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: inside the KMT from splitting the party apart and like
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: weakening the party was when Jung Jingu was still alive,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and he kept the factions and checked. You have, for example,
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: the Bonup artists that were represented by Hobbaltswood, and then
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: you had like the liberals that were represented by by
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: But then even during the Junki Check era, what's so
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: precarious about the KMT is the way they maintained their
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: power in Taiwan was, you know, they made the deal
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: with the devil with the US. Like Jun Kai Check
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: for example, he wasn't necessarily pro US. He was anti
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: communist and the US was also anti communist, and they
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: needed each other. But he had too many ideas of
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: his own that America didn't like, so then they were
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: always undermining him and then among his own people. I mean,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: the CIA also inserted many people into the KMT to
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: undermine what the the Chungs wanted. And then you also
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: have people like the the so called ambassador to the
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: from the so called ROC to America. Yeah, Gonshal, he
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: was straight up like you know, pro US like CIA basically,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: and yeah, you had yeah people like that, and you
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: know Juan Kaishek. His whole thing was, you know, China
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: is one country. There's a disagreement between US in Beijing
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: on what China is, but ultimately it's one country. I
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: believe it is the republic so called Republic of China.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Whereas you had other people in the party even even
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: before Taiwan separatism was a thing that were like, you know,
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: trying to negotiate and convince them. You know what, let's
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: just declare two separate countries. We have the so called
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: ROC on Taiwan and then the mainland can be the PRC.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: It'll be like two China's. That stuff goes way back
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: to that era. So I mean that was kept like
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: you know, publicly, that wasn't really spoken of because the
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: young family with their like it or not, the dictatorship
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: system meant that they could keep this stuff a little
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: bit more like you know, under wraps. But nowadays, without
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: this stuff the KMT, under a liberal democracy and the
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: expectation of transparency, what happens is all of this factionalism
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: spills into the public. It's just public drama at this point.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: You know, you have people like Tui and what like
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: who you called Eric Eric Doo straight up like a
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: US puppet. So I mean, yeah, it's it's complicated. You
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: have you have different parties that are held by held
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: on a leash by the US against each other and
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: the KMD. The difference is the KMT itself has a
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: faction that is more reconciliatory towards the mainland. They want
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: to do business with the mainland, so there's conflicts of interest.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: But what's different between the KMT and the DPP is
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the KMT doesn't really suck up to Japan as much
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: as you know the DPP does because it's old. It's
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: old timers didn't come from families that benefited from Japanese colonialism,
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: you know. So yeah, the factionalism is we'll just have
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: to wait and see. It also depends on public pressure
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: and the KMT caving to this public pressure that that
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: that matters a lot. You know. They have to keep
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: these things in a consideration.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Do you have a sense of how wild to send
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: you went current? The current trip has been received among
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Taiwan among the public.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: It's too soon right now. Especially like the way I
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: gauge a lot of these things is I just walk
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: around outside and hear what people are saying. Or sometimes
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: I after I go for a swim, there's a little
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: sauna and I sit there and I listen to what
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: like these there are these like kind of the pool
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: I go to. It's like a bunch of like retirees
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: and like younger people that are like you know, mostly
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: kind of working class. And the way they speak about
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: politics is just very straightforward, like what they see. So
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: it's like hearing them speak, it's like a really good
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: gauge of you know, just very general sentiments among the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: public and also like among different friends. I mean, I
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: have friends on both sides of the aisle. I have
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: like quite a few friends that are you know, supportive
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: of the DPP. They know I disagree with them. I
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: tell them they're politically they're really not smart, but get
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: along another in other ways, and I value I value
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: the fact that you know, they're willing to speak their
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: opinions to me, so I get a gauge with what
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: their camp is thinking, even though their camp right now
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: is in the minority, like you know, and just just
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: like ten years ago, I wouldn't in public, I think
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: before I criticized the DPP because you never know what
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: people are thinking, and they don't want to like just
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: ruin relationships or friendships over little stupid opinions like this.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: But nowadays it's like you criticize the DPP, you criticized Nichiendo.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: Nobody cares you say something positive about the KMT or
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: some new one or whatever. They don't really care that
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: much either. Even because of the way things have developed,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: people are also more willing to agree to disagree. So
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: that's the general sentiment, but more specific, I'll have to
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: wait and see.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: That's fair. Well, while sending one is our mainland extending
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the olive branch. You know, we talk about this. The
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: US send a Senate delegation led by US Senator Jim
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: Banks to quietly slipping into Taipei and they met with
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: taiwan leader current political leader likes in the and urging
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Taiwan's legislature to pass the stalled forty billion dollar defense
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: budget increase. It's now the the opposition, the KMT has
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: been been trying to block that proposal, and this, you know,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: especially the opposition led by Sidney Wentz KMT. Now do
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: you think the Sandy Went's mainland visit would have any
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: bearing on the on the voting of the budget. Is
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: there is there any connection between these two tracks?
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: Well, first off, yes, it's true that the CANT is
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: blocking the budget. But it's not blocking the budget out
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: of you know, anti US sentiment. It's blocking the budget
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: because of the lack of transparency. They proposed a special
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: budget and then it was literally just delivered to the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: legislature on like a two sheets of a four paper.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: Forty billion dollar budget just on two sheets of like
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: a four like so basically letter sized paper. You want
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: more transport, it's like where is this money going? They
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: want more explanation, and the DPP is like, oh see,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: a lot of it is classified, but we have a
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: more complete report that's six pages. And it's like even
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: in six pages, forty billion dollars, like I could come
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: up with the wishless that's six pages that cost just
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: maybe less than like five thousand dollars, you know. So
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: it's it's out of that sentiment. It's not because of
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: anti US anti US feelings or anything like that. And
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: I think the fact that the US is pressuring the
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: legislature that means they are also putting mounting pressure on
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: the KMT and the TPP. It's more like when it
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: comes to these things, people in Taiwan don't really have
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: a choice. It's kind of like in the late Joseph
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: dynasty in Korea, it wasn't King Kojung that was making
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: the big decisions. Who was making the big decisions in
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Korea during the final years of dynasty, before the first
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: time of Japanese War, who was making the decisions.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: That was Yuenskai, right, that was yep.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: And in Taiwan, the a t the American Institute in
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: Taiwan is our Yakai. But yeah, so I think so
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: many One's visit to the mainland is intended to send
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: a signal that people on both sides of the Taiwan
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: Strait ultimately want peace and that the last thing the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: people of Taiwan want is to be drawn into an
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: unwinnable war like Ukraine. At the same time, like I said,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: we need to really be realistic about where many of
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: these decisions are actually made, because in practice, Taiwan's military
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: procurement decisions are essentially decided by the US, which you know,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: through the Aiit has consistently pressured Taiwan's major political parties
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: to move forward with weapons purchases to the benefit of
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: US politicians through kickbacks and the US military industrial complex.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: So while Tony When's visit may highlight the desire for
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: peace among the people across the street. It may have
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: limited influence over the final outcome of the military budget. However,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: I will say what it might influence though, is the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: upcoming meeting between Presidents Shijimping and Donald Trump and the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: way it influenced this meeting could have a bearing on
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: the budget because at the very end of the day,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: like you said earlier, we pay now and then we
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: receive the weapons a lot later. I mean, given the
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: way things are going, we pay now and then we
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: might be receiving the weapons after reunification.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: And so true, so true, because Taiwan yearily have to
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: wait for decades before the delivery of the American weapons system.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: This is just simply because the lack of a bill
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: of US military industrial industrial military industrial complex to deliver,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: because the manufacturing base of the United States has been
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: hollowed out so much it's starting to affect a military
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: industrial complex itself. And this is not limited to Taiwan.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, same story with Australia. They're paying tens
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: of billions of dollars very similar to Taiwan a for
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: American nuclear sub but their first delivery of that sub
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: is not expected to take place until like after twenty forties.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: Last month, I was in Beijing and I was meeting
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: with a friend, a friend from Beijing and a friend
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: from Singapore, and my friend from Singapore was saying, you know, yeah,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: the US can sanction China's rising tech and China's high
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: tech and all that stuff, but it has a major weakness,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: which is America doesn't even manufacture the own screws. What's
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: more important when it comes to alt like, Okay, yeah,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: if you don't have the latest chip technology, you know,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: it's it's a setback. But what's more important ultimately that
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: or basic things like screws, because if you don't have
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: screws then and you're dependent on China for these things
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: and you're not really gonna build much.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: You know, people are finally waking up to that fact.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: I recently I saw a Wall Street Journal article or
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: was it Bloomberg. They talk about how the US AI
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: expansion is AI race, which China is heading a bottleneck
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: because they depend on China to supply all the electric
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: components to build a power grid because AI is very
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: energy extensive, so in order to power those AI data centers,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: they need to expand the current power grid to be
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: able to power them, but to to to expand the
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: current power grid, all the equipment they need come from China.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: You know. At the one one end, they're trying to
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: choke off China's AI development by restricting sale of advanced
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: my conductors. They're also uh, you know, including prohibit prevent
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: Taiwan semi conductors from working with mainland companies like Huawei
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: to manufacture Huawei's advanced chip design and so. But but
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: at the other end, they still literally depend on nuts
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: and ball boats from China to to to to build
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: their electric equipment. And that's that's that's looks like that's
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: increasingly unlikely because they you know, because of the tariffs
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: and and not because of you know, Chinese restriction is
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: mostly because of the tariffs. And then with the with
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: the current closure of straight or Hormu, so all the
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: prices are gonna go up, and so that's gonna gonna
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: put then on the US planned AI expand, which looks
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: like increasingly unlikely. And yeah, so this is just like
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: another another manifestation of the hollowing out of US manufacturing sector.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: But even more than that, I think there's also a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: talent short gap because I saw the uh, you know,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the reports as the top AI talent, fifty of them
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: graduate from Chinese universities in China. And the way that
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: US has been, you know, putting the screw to all
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: the Chinese scientists and researchers in the United States, it's
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: just going to further encourage all these top Chinese AI
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: talent to immigrate to the United States to work. And yeah,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: so it's anyway, look.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: At China places heavy emphasis on education, and Chinese families
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: like it goes way back to the dynastic era, whereas
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: like you're the one way to break out of your
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: like a lower economic social economic class is to work
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: hard in school. Right, So there is this culture that's
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: very ingrained. So that's why, I mean, the whole stereotype
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: about the academic competition among Chinese people and the emphasis
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: that Chinese families place on education is very real. Right.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not, of course, there are people in China who
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: don't care about school. I'm not saying that those people
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: don't exist, but overall, this is the mainstream culture, whereas
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: America is like i mean, during the Cold War when
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: there was competition with the Soviet Union, there was a
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: lot of heavy emphasis on science and technology and all
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: of that and growing homegrown talent. That's where we see
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: where we saw the rise of you know, modern computing
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: and everything. But then ever since then, the policy has
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: just been Okay, you know what, if our kids want
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: to be if we want to just like spend less
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: money on education and let our let a lot of
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: our kids you know, barely read at a functional level,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: that's fine. We'll just import the top talent from places
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: like India, you know, places that India could benefit much
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: more from, you know, the top Indian talent than America can. Like. Honestly,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: this sort of arrangement is bad for everybody. It's bad because,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: like you know, Americans deserve to be better educated and
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: have better opportunities, and India needs their own talent to
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: develop their country. But what you're doing is you're just
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: screwing everyone over with this arrangement, except for you know,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: certain individuals that benefit from it. But other than that,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: it's bad for most people.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Well, Sandy Went actually made a pretty
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: bold statement when she traveled to mainland China. She said,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: you know, the peace across Taiwan straight means peace for
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: the whole world. Do you agree with this bold statement
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: and what do the cross straight relations carry such outside
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: way for global stability. If your answer is yes, I would.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: Say that I agree and I disagree. What I mean
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: is I agree with some Lewin and the reverse order.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: I would say that if the world is at peace,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: then the Taiwan Straight will remain peaceful. And my reasoning
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: is this, as long as the US continues to pursue
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: a policy of global hegemony, lasting peace will be difficult
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: to achieve because the Taiwan Strait sits at the front
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: line between the system of US global dominance and China's
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: resistance to it. And because of this reality, there is
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: always a non zero chance of the Straight becoming a flashpoint,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: regardless of how great cross straight relations are. What I'm
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: saying is cross straight relations between Taipei and Beijing could
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: be very great today, but if the US wants to
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: ruin it, it could easily do so. I mean, we've
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: seen we've seen this through things like the Color Revolution
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: of twenty fourteen, the Sunflower Movement. Now there's people in
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: denial that it's a color revolution, but if you look
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: at the way it happened, all of the signs were there.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: Taipei was moving too close to Bay when it was
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: about to sign the free trade agreement that would have
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: essentially integrated the service industries of the two sides. Now
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: they were able to do that because there were legitimate
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: concerns among the people of Taiwan. Like I said earlier,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: it's like people benefiting from these sorts of arrangements benefit.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: But do the average people in Taiwan benefit? And that's
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: the one thing that I think really needs to be
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: avoided at this time, is you need to have better communication,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: make the average person in Taiwan feel like closer relations
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: will benefit them and not just the people up top. Now,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: I think only when the broader geopolitical rivalry, you know,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: between the two major camps like China and the US,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: only when this fades. Specifically, this means, if the US
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: stops meddling in this region, can long term peace across
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: the Taiwan Straight truly be guaranteed without this sort of stuff, like,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: there is no reason for the two sides of the
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: Straight to fight each other. You know, before outside forces
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: try to use Taiwan against the Chinese mainland, we never
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: fought against each other In fact, when the first of
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: Hana migrants came to Taiwan, there was much more contact
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: between them and their hometowns on the mainland than them
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: with other Han people on the on Taiwan island. It
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: didn't make sense for the two sides of the strait
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: to fight. Now, I think recent events such as the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: confrontation between the US and Israel on one side and
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: Iran on the other, suggest that the era of uncontested
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: US dominance is already in decline. But what this also
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: means is we will also probably see more desperate moves
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: on part of the US. So at the very end
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: of the day, the only thing that can guarantee peace
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: is the continued rise of the Chinese mainland and its
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: strength and dominance in the region to prevent the US
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: from being a little bit too you know, overconfident and
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: trying to ruin the order in this part of the world.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying dominance as in like China is like
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: acting like a hegemony or anything. What I mean is
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: like dominant, as in being a counterweight to US dominance
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: in this region. Now, taking all of this into account,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I think the significance of Sunniwe's visit is acknowledging this
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: shifting geopolitical reality and the beginning of the process of
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: recalibrating cross streight relations within the change in global order.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean, like you mentioned the US
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: we actually we mentioned this many times. The Taiwan issue,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: that is a cross street relationship is really determined by
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: US China relationship. You know, there's a dynamic between those
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: two because in many ways Taiwans is being used as
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: a proxy, a chess piece by the United States to
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: contain China. And uh, the silver lining if any coming
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: out of the current West Asia conflict is that it
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: just shows there's the severe limitations on the US empire
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: to be a global hedgemont. And you know, if the
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: if the United States is having trouble to subdue Iraan,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: forget about China. I mean, like this's not it makes
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: the future kinetic conflict between the United States and China
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: less likely, I think, at least in the intermediate if
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: you in the in the immedia and intermediate terms. And
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean US will give up simply gave up
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: on its goal of privacy. It just means that, uh,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: there's going to be a reality check for the US
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: planners looking at their competition with China in that regard,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: and and and and for Taiwan, like like you mentioned,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: you know, it makes economically culturally integration makes so much
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: more sense. And then the piece across the Taiwan Straight
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: will actually benefit even people beyond greater China area because
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: for example, I when I travel from Bali to Shanghai,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: I look at the plane flight path when he approaches
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: the Taiwan Straight. Suddenly, like a turn, you bend around
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: the Taiwan. The flight will curve around the Taiwan Straight
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: to fly to Shanghai. So if that that whole issue
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: gets resolved, now you will save a couple of hours.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: Just you know, you can't go fly a straight line
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: across the Taiwan Straight. And this is a current situation
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: for you know, Taiwan people who travel to Mainland and
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: vice versa as well, they can't directly across the Taiwan Straight.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: They have to fly to like Hong Kong, go through
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: like around the.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: Bottom not not not the Hong Kong. You just fly
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: like a little like let's say you're flying for from
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: Taipei to uh Shaman uh huh by north and then
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: you go west towards the mainland and then back south
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: to Shaman, so it's not too far that would increase.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: Like like let's say, let's put it this way, Gimn
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: is right next to Shaman. A flight from Taiwan to
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: gn is less than an hour, but a flight to
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: Shaman is like one hour, so it's like half an hour.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: It's like half half of the time saved for a
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: direct cross straight flight. Now, if it's a place like
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Taipei to Beijing, it's not really impacted because you're not
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: really crossing that part of the strip anyways. But like
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: let's say like you're flying from Taipei to like that direction,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: then yeah, it does. It should shave at least like
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: thirty minutes to an hour off the flight.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean even even international flight like I mentioned
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: from Bali, the direct life of Bali to Shanghai would
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: be crossing the Taiwan straight but currently to like that
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: like a zigzag, and so so I you know, for
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: for this this is like the tangential benefits of course
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: for for people you know, outside outside the Taiwan. And
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: it also you know, just just the whole I think
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: most of the countries in the regions they are, you know,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: they look forward to peace and stability because because the
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: top priority for most countries in the region is still
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: remains development. And and you know, the war benefits nobody
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: because if the reason US even entertained the thought of
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: fighting China in East Asia, the idea is the US.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: It's not it's not taking place on the US mainland.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: US homeland will be, you know, shielded by the big
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: mode of Pacific Ocean. The fight will take place in
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: East Asia. It will be the East Asian cities, whether
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: it's Chinese, where is there Chinese City, Japanese city, Korean
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: cities that will be devastated. You know, United States don't
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: care about that. US don't care the US presidence in
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: this region. US presidence in this region is basically shifting
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: their western line of defense, as they would from from
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: their perspective from the Californian coast to this part of
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: the Pacific and letting the entire Pacific go should become
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: a buffer between themselves and arising East. But this is
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: done under the assumption that China would ever want to
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: launch a war of progression on the US. Now the
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: threat might have been a little bit bigger during the
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: days of the Soviet Union, when it was you know,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: there was an ideological element behind it. But nowadays, in
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: this prevailing world order, it's really difficult to argue that
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: there is a desire from this part of the world
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: to you know, replace the US as the sole hegemon
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: and to encroach US sovereignty. But but right now, I mean,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: the main argument right now is just that US cannot
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: retreat from East Asia because that's the cornerstone of the
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: US Empire, US primacy. If US somehow gave up quote
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: unquote Taiwan like Taiwan is theirs, and then the whole
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: US primacy project will collapse. And that that is literally
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: the art the same domino theory that people use for
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: like getting the United States into Vietnam War, which I
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: think that that that was bogus as well.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: But okay, I think ahead in the past, when China's
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: naval power was weak, there was some truth to it.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: But nowadays, with the launch of these new aircraft carriers
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: and the development of China's naval and air power, even
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: with the first island chain, the US with its military
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: bases in Japan Korea, it doesn't have US bases in Taiwan.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: But I mean Taiwan listens to the administration, listens to America.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: Even with all of this taken into account, the US
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: is unable to get into the first island chain at
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: this point. It's moving towards that direction. Notice a personnelse shift,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: a lot of people. They're moving from Okinawa to Guam.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: They're already they're already on the low key retreating to
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: the second island chain. So yeah, they can say that
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: all they want. Oh, we can't retreat from it. It's
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: already happening.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean this is why, you know, like
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: I keep on saying, pivot to Asia is not happening. Oh,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if you count, you say, what
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: happening in Middle East right now is an actual pivot
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: to West Asia. But pivot to East Asia is actually
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: not happening.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: Hill.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of rhetoric.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: When Hilary said Asia, she meant pivot to China. But
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: that was two centuries Asia.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but that that that is not happening because right
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: now it's if anything, is pivoting away because United States
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: realize its position in the first highland change is increasingly untenable,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: and and so yeah, and and this this is a
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: power differential between China and the United States will likely
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: increase in the coming coming years. So I'm opt broadly
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: optimistic about the cross straight UH relationship. I think the
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: trend is still to our tour integration. Despite you know,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: there will be there might be some hiccups up on
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: the way.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: There's gonna be hiccups, and Taiwan separatists are going to
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: be louder than ever. But it's a good sign if
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: their rhetoric starts being amplified and they start being louder,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: because it's a sign of desperation. You're going to see
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: that from them. So please, when you look at these things,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of people in the West. I mean,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: how many people among the audience even knew about this
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: sort of like situationship between the KMT and the CPC.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: They think because Western media has led them to believe
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: that everybody in Taiwan has this heart on to fight
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: with the mainland and to pursue like separatism or anything.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: The reality is this, because of ideological conditioning and global geopolitics,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: the majority of the people for now are not in
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: a hurry to reunify. But we also know that Taiwan
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: separatism is futile and that it's not a very realistic plan.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: So that's why most people still want to maintain the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: status quo. But eventually, as global trends change, the people
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: who want to maintain the status quo will want to
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: see an eventual reunification. And for most of modern Taiwan's history,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: after nineteen forty nine, most people wanted some form of reunification.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: It's only like in the two thousands, especially in the
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: twenty tens. I think the twenty tens was the peak
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: of Taiwan separatism in the mainstream. After that, I mean
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: it's basically people are coming through their senses and then
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: the among the actual separatists, how many are true believers?
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: By true believer, this is what I mean. When the
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: founding fathers of the United States declared independence, they were
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: willing to fight a war with Britain to secure and
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: defend the independence that they declared. How many people among
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: the separatists are willing to die for their beliefs. There's
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: not many, and a lot of the richer ones they
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: already have their houses purchased in the US or Japan.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: And if war breaks out, they're leaving before anybody else,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: and it's the people that were strung along with their
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: stupid plans that will face the consequences should whatever happen.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: But thankfully, Beijing is not stupid. Beijing is not stupid,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: and it understands the long game. The P and CPC
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: stands for patients right, so things for the most part
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: will be resolved in a peaceful manner. Yes, Beijing does
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: say that it does not rule out the use of force,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: but that does not mean that use of force is
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: the preferred option. It's the last option.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: So totally agree. And one thing to keep in mind
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: is that the whole Okay, wait, I lost my but
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: I'm probably optimistic about the prospect of peace breaking out
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: in East Asia because you know, China now, especially giving
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: what United States are doing in West Asia, China looks
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: like a bastion of peace and stability right now, like
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: an anchor of peace. And to continue, you know, there
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: might be hiccups, like like you mentioned, people you will
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: see have rhetorics from some quarters grow more sherale. But
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: this is just a natural reaction, uh, just like the
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: Copian in the United States will continue to grow sky
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: high as China continued to rise, but he actually reflectses
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: from a position of insecurity. There's a Taiwanese commentator who
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: sometimes appear on my show, who you also know, Angelica Um.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: She made a good point that she says, Look, Taiwan
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: has been had a pretty good uh, you know, in
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: the post World War two arrangement by hitching its bandwagon
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: with the United States. But now with China rising, you know,
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: Taiwan could score, uh, could finance a real good deal
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: if this can somehow to come to uh with some
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: sort of accommodation with Beijing and continue to hitch its
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: fortune to the rise in China, and that will benefit
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: the people of Taiwan. And and the point that she
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: was making is that, you know, if the reunification is inevitable, uh,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: it's better to negotiate from a point of strength, like
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: like right now, you know, like because as China grow
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: more and more powerful, uh, you know, Taiwan's negotiation strength
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: will will will be considerably weakened.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: This This contrast to back in nineteen nineties, like that,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: you know, before the Hong Kong handover. At that time,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: Hong Kong uh GDP is about twenty five percent of
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: all of China and Taiwan. I think it was even bigger,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: it was even bigger slice. But now you know now
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: it's it's like like Taiwan's GDP is equivalent to like
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: another Chinese province, and and that their position will continue
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: to erode, you know, before the you know, before the
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: unification is reached.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: And the words of Chong Li Win she said this
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: in Taiwan, is that the US was once our patron,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: but the Chinese mainland will forever be our family.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: I think this is a very correct sentiment some coming
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: from her. It's easier to you know, to understand because
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: her father is from the mainland. For a lot of
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: Benson in Taiwan, there are many generations remove like my
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: mom Mom, for example, she's like six generations removed. Now
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: she knows she's Chinese, but I can even feel it.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: To her, it's like the Mainland is more distant to
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: her emotionally because she did not grow up with like
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: a grandfather from or a father from the mainland or
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: anything like that, whereas like with me, my grandfather is
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: from the mainland, he's from Sendom So then growing up
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: I hear stories from my dad telling about like his
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: how he worked as a child laborer in Sendom before
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: like trunk Gundom, like going to the northeast and all
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: that stuff. So it's like it's it feels a lot closer,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. But then as which is
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: why it's very important for these for this people to
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: people contact between Taiwan and the mainland, because this is
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: the reality. Okay, the differences between the two sides of
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: the strait are over exaggerated by separatists, but the similarities
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: are also a little bit exaggerated by those pushing for
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: reunification after decades. Actually, no, if we start at eighteen
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: ninety five, when Taiwan was first separated from the mainland
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: because of the Japanese, it's over a century of separation. Yes,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: nineteen forty five to forty nine, the country was nominally unified,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: but it was in a state of war, so there
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: was no time for true people to people contact, and
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: then you had the nineteen forty nine exodus. Two million
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: Mainlanders came to Taiwan. I think that was you know,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: it was unfortunate that it happened in the context of war,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: but perhaps it's that exodus that created the last link
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: between last more recent link between Taiwan and the mainland.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: That feels a little bit more real to us. It's
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: in our society, it flows through our veins. It's changed
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: our eating habits because like now you have like food
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: from all over the Chinese mainland concentrated on this one
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: tiny island. Now modern day mainland China, you know, you
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: get foods from all sorts of provinces everywhere. But back
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: decades ago, I guess the only place in all of
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: China where you can get everything in such a small
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: place was probably Taiwan. So it was like a microcosm
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: of the rest of the country. So we got to
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: use that to our advantage. And you know it's I
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: guess it's paying off now looking back. It's you know,
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: I think everything happens for a reason, and I'm glad
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: things are turning out the way they are. And one
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: last thing I want to mention. We see a lot
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: of Westerners, these like anti usagem andy Westerner commentators. You're like, oh,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: look at this stuff going on. Now, it's the perfect
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: time for Beijing to take Taiwan. Why take it? It's
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: already a part of China, And look at what's happening now.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: China has its own logic. It doesn't follow the logic
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: of these like countries that are in these and a
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: little bit more precarious situations. China is standing confidently. Its
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: rise is steady. The Taiwan issue is not a matter
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: of if, but when. And the writing was already on
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: the wall. It was already on the wall in nineteen
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: forty nine. When a new Chinese dynasty declares itself, it's
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: not because it's it's conquered every last inch of Chinese territory.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: Remnants of previous dynasties always exists. When a new dynasty
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: is born, Almost always, it just means that enough of
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: the country has been secured that the rest of it
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: that's currently outside of the new central government's control, it's
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: only a matter of time. So even all the way
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: back in nineteen forty nine, the writing was already on
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: the wall. It just got delayed because of the Cold
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: War and US intervention, the Seventh Fleet and stuff like that.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: Now what we're seeing is just a return to the
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: natural order in this region.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like I think you know what you
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: say about this Westerner, whether they're anti hegemonic or pro hedgemonic. Fundamentally,
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: they're not Chinese, so they don't really understand the thing
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: between mainland China and Taiwan is a dispute between family. Yeah,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: it's a dispute between family. It's a family field, and.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: It's not one side taking over the other. It's two
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: parts of one family joining back together.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: That's correct. On that note, thank you for joining me
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: again showing you in the trenches. And if people want
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: to follow your work, where will they go?
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: See the link over here x t X Y dot
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: show has all of my links. That's got my Twitter,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: it's got my YouTube to my show straight Talk and
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: Taiwan Straight Talk with Shangi. And I'm starting some vlogging
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: right now, about to go to Shinjung for the very
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: first time. And yeah, stay tuned. And if you want
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: to hear more real nonsense information about cross street relations,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: you can follow me. And when North Korea reopens to tourism,
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: also find me because as the general manager of dead
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: On Tours, I can take you to the country once
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: tourism zooms.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: Nice. Nice, I gotta say your your internet connection is
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good from fun Tendu China. Even with the VPN
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: you know like it's you can't, you can't, you can't
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: even tell, and your your internet connection spy faster than mine. Well, thanks,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: thanks everyone for listening in until next time, Bye bye