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Big Ten 2026 Preview and Predictions FULL · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

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Speaker 1: On today's show, it's time for my Big Ten Football
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six preview, predictions and best bets. Welcome in.
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Speaker 1: This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Siegers at Gary WCE on all
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Speaker 1: the different socials. You can also subscribe to the WCE
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Speaker 1: channel or podcast, or you can check out Instagram which
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Speaker 1: is Winning Cures Everything, or TikTok, which is Gary WCEE.
0:34
Speaker 1: At some point I will figure out how to brand
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Speaker 1: all of this stuff correctly, but I am doing some
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Speaker 1: shorts and whatnot, so go ahead and check out those channels.
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Speaker 1: WCE Eclipse is already on the Winning Cures Everything channel,
0:50
Speaker 1: so go ahead and check that out. Anyway, enough of that,
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Speaker 1: let's get into the twenty twenty six Big Ten preview
0:56
Speaker 1: because this league is walking into the season from a
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Speaker 1: spot that would have said it almost impossible a few
1:01
Speaker 1: years back. The Big Ten is not chasing the SEC anymore.
1:05
Speaker 1: It's not asking anybody for respect, that's not trying to
1:08
Speaker 1: prove it can win on the biggest stage. Michigan won
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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty three national title. Ohio State won it
1:13
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. Indiana won it last year in
1:15
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. That is three straight championships, three different programs,
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Speaker 1: and now this league has got a real shot at
1:23
Speaker 1: making it four in a row with a fourth different champion. Now.
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Speaker 1: Sitting right in the middle of that conversation is Oregon.
1:29
Speaker 1: The Ducks have been elite three years, running third, third,
1:32
Speaker 1: and fourth in SP plus. They are thirty seven and
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Speaker 1: zer against anybody that did not end up in the
1:38
Speaker 1: national title game, but against the teams that actually played
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Speaker 1: for the trophy, they're just one in five. So this
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Speaker 1: whole preview really starts with one question, right, and that
1:48
Speaker 1: is is this finally the year that Oregon finishes the job?
1:52
Speaker 1: Or does Ohio State Sealing end up winning out? Does
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Speaker 1: Kurt Signetti prove that what he built at Indiana is
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Speaker 1: sustainable at the absolute highest level even when they so
2:00
Speaker 1: many pieces? And can anybody out of that next group
2:03
Speaker 1: right USC, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, can they crash what
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Speaker 1: looks like a three team race. Now we're gonna cover
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Speaker 1: all of it today. The identity of this league, the
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Speaker 1: coaching and the quarterback turnover, every tier, the best units,
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Speaker 1: the schedule, breaks the landmine games, the championship race, and
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Speaker 1: we'll close it out with the futures and win totals
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Speaker 1: that I actually like. Now the simplest way to describe
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Speaker 1: this league in twenty twenty six. It's top heavy, but
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Speaker 1: it's top heavy in the best possible way. Right Ohio State, Oregon,
2:36
Speaker 1: in Indiana. They're not just conference contenders. All three of
2:39
Speaker 1: those teams can win the national title this year. The
2:42
Speaker 1: preseason numbers have got Ohio State first nationally, most of
2:46
Speaker 1: them anyway, Oregon second, A lot of them have Indiana
2:50
Speaker 1: anywhere from third to sixth ish. The futures board has
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Speaker 1: got Ohio State at plus one eighty to win the conference,
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Speaker 1: Indiana at plus two to fifty, Oregon at plus two
2:59
Speaker 1: to seventy five, and then the market just falls off
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Speaker 1: a cliff all the way down to USC at plus
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Speaker 1: fourteen forty. The gap, to excuse me, plus fourteen hundred.
3:11
Speaker 1: That gap kind of tells you everything that you need
3:13
Speaker 1: to know, right, Three teams that the market sees as
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Speaker 1: finished products. And then he got a big pack of
3:19
Speaker 1: good teams that are trying to prove they belong in
3:20
Speaker 1: that same sentence. But I don't think we can sleep
3:24
Speaker 1: on the middle of this league. Right, It's deeper than
3:26
Speaker 1: last year. Maryland is second nationally in returning production. What
3:30
Speaker 1: that necessarily means in a transfer portal age maybe not
3:34
Speaker 1: as much. Nebraska is third in returning production, Minnesota eighth,
3:39
Speaker 1: UCLA tenth, Oregon, usc Washington, and Michigan are all top twenty.
3:43
Speaker 1: There's more experienced rosters, there's more proven quarterbacks in this conference.
3:47
Speaker 1: There are more teams with a believable case for improvement.
3:50
Speaker 1: The catch is continuity doesn't automatically buy you a championship ceiling, right,
3:55
Speaker 1: Sometimes it just turns a five win team into a
3:57
Speaker 1: six win team, or a seven win team into an
3:59
Speaker 1: eight win team. And sometimes it just goes backwards, right.
4:03
Speaker 1: I mean, we saw it with Penn State last year,
4:04
Speaker 1: we saw it with Clemson. You never know exactly what
4:07
Speaker 1: it is that you're gonna get. And since this is
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Speaker 1: an eighteen team league where everybody plays only half of
4:12
Speaker 1: the conference, your schedule draw matters almost as much as
4:15
Speaker 1: your roster. Like Penn State this year has got the
4:17
Speaker 1: easiest Big Ten draw on our model by a wide,
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Speaker 1: wide margin. Northwestern has got the most difficult, Wisconsin, UCLA,
4:27
Speaker 1: and Illinois all have pretty manageable paths. Nebraska and Northwestern
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Speaker 1: could genuinely be better teams than they were last year
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Speaker 1: and still finished with records that do not show it.
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Speaker 1: Ohio State could be the most talented roster in the
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Speaker 1: league and still have a tougher road than Oregon has.
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Speaker 1: Right the coast to coast scheduling headache has not gone
4:45
Speaker 1: anywhere either. USC's got four road trips east of Mountain time,
4:50
Speaker 1: Washington plays five conference road games. Oregon, USC, Washington, and UCLA.
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Speaker 1: They are all dealing with a with a pretty physical
4:59
Speaker 1: grind at the old guard Big ten schools simply do
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Speaker 1: not face because they don't have to travel that much.
5:05
Speaker 1: Right and stylistically, this isn't the league anymore where every
5:08
Speaker 1: serious contender wants to grind out a twenty to seventeen win.
5:12
Speaker 1: The defensive identity is still real. Your team's like Oregon,
5:15
Speaker 1: Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Washington. They can all play
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Speaker 1: elite defense. Washington, We'll see. But the top of this
5:26
Speaker 1: conference is now stacked with quarterback talent and explosive offense.
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Speaker 1: Right Dante Moor is back at Oregon, Julian Saying is
5:33
Speaker 1: at Ohio State, and He's got Jeremiah Smith to throw two.
5:35
Speaker 1: Josh Hoover comes from TCU, steps in at Indiana and
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Speaker 1: Signette's system. Jade Maieva at USC he returns for Lincoln
5:43
Speaker 1: Riley Demon Williams gives Washington one of the most dangerous
5:46
Speaker 1: duel threats in the country. That's before you even mentioned
5:50
Speaker 1: Bryce Underwood now having Jason Beck calling plays at Michigan,
5:54
Speaker 1: so the league has got real firepower up top, and
5:57
Speaker 1: that is certainly a strength now. The coaching caresel is
6:02
Speaker 1: another reason this conference feels way more volatile than a
6:05
Speaker 1: year ago. Michigan made the loudest move of the offseason,
6:08
Speaker 1: and they did it late because they hired Kyle Whittingham.
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Speaker 1: And this isn't Whittingham showing up solo trying to patch
6:13
Speaker 1: the staff together, right. He brought in Jason Beck to
6:16
Speaker 1: run the offense, who was with him at Utah last year.
6:19
Speaker 1: Jay Hill from BYU techs over the defense and they
6:22
Speaker 1: had a chunk of Utah's roster that followed them to Michigan,
6:26
Speaker 1: so you know the bones are going to be there.
6:27
Speaker 1: The centerpiece is, of course Bryce Underwood. He was the
6:30
Speaker 1: former number one overall recruit and he's now in year two,
6:34
Speaker 1: he's got a staff that has a pretty good track
6:36
Speaker 1: record of developing quarterbacks or at least calling plays that
6:39
Speaker 1: seem to fit them, and building physical football teams, which
6:43
Speaker 1: is what they want at Michigan. The ceiling for that
6:45
Speaker 1: team is pretty massive, but it's still a major transition.
6:49
Speaker 1: Like Michigan is replacing a lot of production up front.
6:51
Speaker 1: On defense, the receiver room has not proven it can
6:53
Speaker 1: consistently help Underwood yet Whittingham is one of the safer
6:57
Speaker 1: long term coaching bets in the sport. Now, that doesn't
7:00
Speaker 1: guarantee a clean first season, especially considering what Michigan had
7:06
Speaker 1: the past couple of years. Right, it was kind of
7:09
Speaker 1: a mess. And I'm recording this close to when it
7:14
Speaker 1: sounds like the ad is going to be gone, So
7:18
Speaker 1: who knows what to expect here? Penn State went even bigger,
7:21
Speaker 1: I mean, a full roster, full system overhaul. Matt Campbell
7:25
Speaker 1: from Iowa State comes in and replaces James Franklin basically
7:28
Speaker 1: brought half of Ames Iowa with him. Twenty four former
7:31
Speaker 1: Iowa State players are now in Happy Valley. Rock o'beck
7:34
Speaker 1: does the quarterback here, Carson Hanson joins him in the backfield,
7:38
Speaker 1: Most of the offensive and defensive infrastructure got transplanted wholesale,
7:42
Speaker 1: and Danton Lynn takes over the defense. He was, of
7:45
Speaker 1: course at USC as Lincoln Riley's defensive coordinator. He did
7:48
Speaker 1: really good things in year one with Lincoln Riley. He
7:52
Speaker 1: did really good things in year one with UCLA before
7:56
Speaker 1: you know, before Chip Kelly was gone. The schedule at
8:00
Speaker 1: Penn State gives Campbell some room to kind of sort
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Speaker 1: it out. The roster is what makes it kind of tricky.
8:05
Speaker 1: On the projection. You've only got seven returning Penn State
8:08
Speaker 1: players that logged even two hundred snaps last year. So
8:11
Speaker 1: it's not your typical coaching change where the new staff
8:14
Speaker 1: inherits and established depth chart like this is a This
8:19
Speaker 1: is closer to a program replacement all in one offseason.
8:23
Speaker 1: So how good is Iowa State North gonna be in
8:30
Speaker 1: the Big ten? So it kind of makes things a
8:33
Speaker 1: little tricky, But it's not like we haven't seen that
8:36
Speaker 1: be successful before, right. James Madison, like quite a few
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Speaker 1: of their guys went over to Indiana and they ended
8:44
Speaker 1: up win a national title in year two with Curt Signetti.
8:46
Speaker 1: But UCLA, speaking of James Madison, hired Bob Chesney, and
8:51
Speaker 1: the roster work already looks pretty sharp. He brought a
8:53
Speaker 1: wave of James Madison talent with him, Wayne Knight included.
8:57
Speaker 1: And now they get to try and rebuild Nico Yami
8:59
Speaker 1: Lieva after a a really messy year, stuck in a
9:03
Speaker 1: dysfunctional offense with different play callers, etc. And the Bruins
9:08
Speaker 1: catch you know what, could be one of the friendlier
9:12
Speaker 1: schedules in the league. The defensive line is entirely new,
9:14
Speaker 1: so there's some risk there, but UCLA looks more organized
9:17
Speaker 1: and more dangerous than it did twelve months ago. Michigan
9:20
Speaker 1: State took the biggest wing of anybody. They hired Pat Fitzgerald.
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Speaker 1: There's experience there in big ten experience because obviously he
9:26
Speaker 1: was at Northwestern for a while, and they've got a
9:29
Speaker 1: clear vision for what the program or what they want
9:32
Speaker 1: the program to be physically. But the roster has got
9:35
Speaker 1: holes everywhere. Right. It's a thin offensive line, thin receiving room,
9:39
Speaker 1: defense returns basically nothing. Milso Yevik is the likely start
9:47
Speaker 1: at quarterback. I'm hoping I say that name right. Freshman
9:51
Speaker 1: Kad Kaufman could be pushing him there. Neither one of
9:54
Speaker 1: those is a quick fix, and I don't think anybody
9:56
Speaker 1: should pretend otherwise. There's coordinator movement at the time of
10:00
Speaker 1: the conference that matters too. Oregon promoted from within, right,
10:03
Speaker 1: Drew Meringer is now the offensive coordinator. Chris Hampton is
10:06
Speaker 1: going to be the defensive coordinator. That's after they lost
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Speaker 1: both Will Stein, the OC who is now the Kentucky
10:11
Speaker 1: head coach, and Tash Lupoy, who is the DC and
10:14
Speaker 1: he is now the head coach at Cal. The upside
10:18
Speaker 1: of these moves is continuity, right. The risk is that
10:20
Speaker 1: both guys are kind of learning on the job while
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Speaker 1: Oregon is trying to win a national title. Ohio State
10:26
Speaker 1: brought in Arthur Smith to run the offense, and Arthur Smith,
10:31
Speaker 1: of course was an NFL head coach. He was an
10:33
Speaker 1: NFL offensive coordinator. Now he's stepping back down to the
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Speaker 1: college game. The expectation is that a stronger running game, commitment,
10:41
Speaker 1: better efficiency is going to be there. But the real
10:45
Speaker 1: question is not whether the Buckeyes can dominate ordinary opponents
10:48
Speaker 1: like it's whether or not they're going to get aggressive
10:50
Speaker 1: when the games actually decide championships. And they've got a
10:53
Speaker 1: lot of games on the schedule that will be deciding championships.
10:57
Speaker 1: USC handed over the defense to Gary Patterson, right, which
11:01
Speaker 1: I mean that name carries some weight, and the recruiting
11:03
Speaker 1: has been strong enough to kind of raise that ceiling.
11:05
Speaker 1: But Patterson has not been a defensive coordinator for a
11:08
Speaker 1: top twenty defense since twenty fourteen, and even then he's
11:13
Speaker 1: been out of a full time share for a while,
11:15
Speaker 1: like he was the head coach, so he hadn't been
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Speaker 1: a defensive coordinator since two thousand. I mean, it's been
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Speaker 1: a long time. USC is gonna bet that his experience
11:28
Speaker 1: finally solves the one problem that Lincoln Riley has never
11:31
Speaker 1: really fixed, and that, of course would be the defense.
11:34
Speaker 1: Northwestern hired Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator and Jerry Neuheisel
11:38
Speaker 1: as their quarterbacks coach, and that is a dramatic philosophical
11:43
Speaker 1: shift for a program that has spent years just trying
11:45
Speaker 1: to survive on defense. Aiden Chiles is going to be
11:49
Speaker 1: their quarterback. Looks like the highest upside option in a
11:51
Speaker 1: competition that you know also includes Nico Marshall and Gavin
11:57
Speaker 1: Freaks and my boys, lap pirates boys would be able
12:00
Speaker 1: to tell you much more about those guys. A few
12:03
Speaker 1: more guys that are worth mentioning. Maryland brought in Clinton
12:05
Speaker 1: Trigget to Development League Washington and kind of jump start
12:07
Speaker 1: that running game. Nebraska, it's on his fourth defensive coordinator
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Speaker 1: in five years. Rob Uric is now running the show.
12:14
Speaker 1: Rutgers hired Travis Johanson to rebuild a defense that kind
12:18
Speaker 1: of fell apart last year. Purdue brought Kevin Kane back
12:22
Speaker 1: into a system that he already knows. So you know,
12:25
Speaker 1: there's a lot of capable coaches in this conference. There's
12:28
Speaker 1: also more moving pieces than I think the preseason rankings
12:31
Speaker 1: really let on. Now. Quarterback is where this league has
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Speaker 1: changed the most, and it's not even close right Dante
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Speaker 1: Moore to me is the top quarterback in the conference
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Speaker 1: right now through four over thirty five hundred yards and
12:43
Speaker 1: thirty touchdowns last year. He's got a loaded room of
12:46
Speaker 1: backs and receivers around him, and he's shown he can
12:49
Speaker 1: stay steady in the biggest moments. Right the last step
12:52
Speaker 1: is pretty obvious. He's got to go beat teams that
12:54
Speaker 1: are actually good enough to win it all. Julian Sayan
12:56
Speaker 1: is right there with him, over thirty six hundred yards
12:59
Speaker 1: and thirty two touchdowns last year. He got better as
13:01
Speaker 1: the year went on. He's got the best non quarterback
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Speaker 1: player in the conference lining up to him in Jeremiah Smith.
13:08
Speaker 1: He's got an experienced line in front of him, and
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Speaker 1: he's got Bo Jackson in the backfield Huste. They finished
13:14
Speaker 1: first nationally in offensive success right a year ago, but
13:17
Speaker 1: they also played at the slowest tempo in the country,
13:21
Speaker 1: and you know, with Arthur Smith, we're going to see, like,
13:24
Speaker 1: are the training wheels about to come off? It sounds
13:26
Speaker 1: kind of like it, but we'll see. The part of
13:31
Speaker 1: the slow tempo was because they fully expected to be
13:34
Speaker 1: playing well into January and they wanted as few snaps
13:38
Speaker 1: as possible. So we're going to see if they continue
13:40
Speaker 1: with that or not. Everybody kind of knows the more
13:44
Speaker 1: snaps you get, as the more talented team, the better
13:48
Speaker 1: your results are typically going to be. So if you
13:52
Speaker 1: keep playing these slow paces, eh, what does that really mean?
13:57
Speaker 1: So maybe go slow in games of the year supposed
14:00
Speaker 1: to win and then speed up against some of the
14:04
Speaker 1: better teams. Who knows Indiana is replacing a Heisman winner
14:07
Speaker 1: and that sounds like a crisis until you look at
14:09
Speaker 1: who they actually brought in Josh Hoover comes in from TCU,
14:13
Speaker 1: had over ninety six hundred career passing yards. He had
14:15
Speaker 1: seventy one touchdowns. He is much more experienced dipping into
14:19
Speaker 1: this job than Fernando Mendoza was just a year ago.
14:23
Speaker 1: The concern is interceptions, but I mean Signette's earned every
14:27
Speaker 1: bit of benefit of the doubt when it comes to
14:29
Speaker 1: quarterback evaluation. Out of the portal. He has done a
14:32
Speaker 1: magnificent job in the first two seasons. Who am I
14:35
Speaker 1: to question right? Jade Maiava threw for over thirty seven
14:38
Speaker 1: hundred yards and twenty four touchdowns last year, posted the
14:41
Speaker 1: highest QBR of any returning Big ten starter. The line
14:45
Speaker 1: protected him well, and USC is bringing back King Miller
14:48
Speaker 1: and Wayman Jordan at running back, and they were awesome
14:51
Speaker 1: so long as they were healthy last year. Question mark
14:53
Speaker 1: for USC is going to be the receiver room that
14:55
Speaker 1: is almost completely rebuilt. Demon Williams at Washington he threw
15:01
Speaker 1: for over three thousand yards with twenty five touchdowns. His
15:05
Speaker 1: legs make him just a nightmare to defend. He's got
15:08
Speaker 1: to cut down the sacks that he's taking and you know,
15:11
Speaker 1: prove that he can produce against you know, Oregon and
15:16
Speaker 1: Ohio state level defenses, because they certainly didn't show up
15:19
Speaker 1: against those teams. Michigan as well last year. But the
15:22
Speaker 1: ceiling here is enormous. Bryce Underwood rushed for over five
15:27
Speaker 1: hundred non sack yards last year as a true freshman.
15:30
Speaker 1: He's got Jason Beck that's running a system that should
15:33
Speaker 1: theoretically use his legs and his arm a lot more intelligently,
15:39
Speaker 1: because I don't know what they were doing with him
15:41
Speaker 1: last year. Michigan's this year was never really the quarterback.
15:43
Speaker 1: It's it's whether the receivers can develop fast enough around him.
15:47
Speaker 1: Ucla Nico. He might be the best bounce back candidate
15:50
Speaker 1: in the hole league. Twenty twenty five was uneven, but
15:54
Speaker 1: the environment around him was really rough as well. And
15:56
Speaker 1: now he's got you know, Bob Chesney, a deeper line.
16:01
Speaker 1: He's got some skill talent that already knows the system.
16:08
Speaker 1: I mean, you see, he's got a chance to be
16:09
Speaker 1: really really good. Rock Quebec from Iowa State goes over
16:12
Speaker 1: to Penn State. He's got experience, he's got total scheme familiarity.
16:17
Speaker 1: Colton Joseph at Wisconsin, he comes in from old dominion.
16:21
Speaker 1: That gives Wisconsin a level of explosiveness that they have
16:24
Speaker 1: not had at that position in multiple years. He had
16:28
Speaker 1: thirty seven hundred plus combined passing and nonsack rushing yards.
16:31
Speaker 1: He had thirty four total touchdowns at Old Dominion, And
16:36
Speaker 1: you know, you keep going with this like Nebraska Anthony Calandria,
16:41
Speaker 1: like they're more explosive, they're more unpredictable. He's going to
16:44
Speaker 1: create big plays, but he's He's got nine games with
16:48
Speaker 1: multiple interceptions on his resume. Caateen Hauser from East Carolina
16:52
Speaker 1: threw for over to thirty three hundred yards last year
16:54
Speaker 1: with the Pirates. Should be a competent answer for Illinois,
16:57
Speaker 1: although the line in front of him is is completely
17:01
Speaker 1: being rebuilt. And then there's even more uncertainty. Right with Iowa,
17:06
Speaker 1: they still hadn't settled between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinsky.
17:09
Speaker 1: Rutgers is choo choosing between Dylan Logan and aj Suris. Northwestern,
17:14
Speaker 1: of course, has got that three way battle. We think
17:16
Speaker 1: it's going to be Aidan Chiles Michigan State. You know,
17:19
Speaker 1: one of the thinnest supporting casts in the league. Purdue
17:22
Speaker 1: has got real questions even with Ryan Brown back, like
17:25
Speaker 1: the top eight or nine quarterback rooms in this conference
17:27
Speaker 1: are genuinely excellent. The bottom group is still really just
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Speaker 1: winning Cures and become part of the community today. All right,
18:02
Speaker 1: so let's get into the tiers. Tier one has got
18:04
Speaker 1: three teams right at Oregon, Ohio, State, Indiana. Now I've
18:08
Speaker 1: got Oregon first. To me, it's the most complete roster
18:12
Speaker 1: in the conference. Dante Moore is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
18:16
Speaker 1: The running back room is deep, the receiver group is
18:18
Speaker 1: loaded with young talent, The defense brings back a really
18:22
Speaker 1: experienced front six, and the secondary might be the best
18:24
Speaker 1: in the country. Right Brandon Finney Junior, Aaron Flowers, cooy Perch.
18:31
Speaker 1: The Oregon has star power and versatility on the back end,
18:35
Speaker 1: while Washington and Uyongalile make life really miserable upfront for opponents.
18:40
Speaker 1: The offensive line is the worry, which it is with everybody,
18:45
Speaker 1: but Oregon is rebuilding that group for the second straight offseason,
18:47
Speaker 1: and that's you know, it's a scary thing when you're
18:49
Speaker 1: heading into road trips at USC at Ohio State, stuff
18:52
Speaker 1: like that. The other concern, of course, being the coordinator
18:55
Speaker 1: change on both sides of the ball, which I've already mentioned.
18:57
Speaker 1: Internal promotion that keeps the system, but running the whiteboard
19:03
Speaker 1: is different from making you know, championship level calls in November.
19:08
Speaker 1: But even still, Oregon brings back roughly two hundred career
19:12
Speaker 1: starts from last year's team and only only about three
19:14
Speaker 1: games on the slate that look like genuine threats. The
19:17
Speaker 1: Ducks sit at plus two to seventy five to win
19:19
Speaker 1: the league. Some boards have offered plus three hundred I
19:22
Speaker 1: don't know if those are still out there, and the
19:24
Speaker 1: win total is at ten and a half. The ceiling
19:27
Speaker 1: for this team is obvious conference champion, national champ like.
19:30
Speaker 1: The floor is still somewhere around ten and two with
19:32
Speaker 1: the playoff spot like they are the most trustworthy option
19:37
Speaker 1: to me, Ohio State has got the highest ceiling in
19:40
Speaker 1: the league like at number one nationally and projected SB plus.
19:44
Speaker 1: They got say in, they got Jeremiah Smith, they got
19:46
Speaker 1: Bo Jackson, they got a veteran line. They can you know,
19:48
Speaker 1: maybe build the best offense in college football. Jeremiah Smith
19:52
Speaker 1: is not just the best receiver in the Big Ten,
19:54
Speaker 1: he is the most dominant non quarterback in the sport.
19:58
Speaker 1: And the question is going to be whether Ohio State
20:00
Speaker 1: finally plays like a team with that much firepower, because
20:03
Speaker 1: they were remarkably efficient last year, but the conservative approach
20:10
Speaker 1: it cost them laid against Indiana, it cost them laid
20:12
Speaker 1: against Miami. Right, and with saying now established, there's no
20:16
Speaker 1: excuse left for playing scared in the biggest games. And
20:18
Speaker 1: that's not to say that they were playing scared last year.
20:22
Speaker 1: It was just an interesting game plan for some of
20:26
Speaker 1: the bigger games. Right. Their other issues turnover on defense.
20:33
Speaker 1: Seven regular starters have gone, five of them off to
20:35
Speaker 1: the NFL in the first two rounds. Recruiting is strong
20:38
Speaker 1: enough to reload there, and the preseason numbers still have
20:40
Speaker 1: Ohio State first nationally on defense. But you know, projection
20:43
Speaker 1: is not the same as experience, and the schedule is
20:47
Speaker 1: just brutal, right, road trip to Texas in week two.
20:50
Speaker 1: They got to go to Iowa, they got to go
20:52
Speaker 1: to Indiana, they gotta go to usc They've got Oregon
20:54
Speaker 1: and Michigan coming to Columbus, seven of the projected nine
20:58
Speaker 1: top teams in the conference, and they avoid all four
21:01
Speaker 1: teams at the bottom. At plus one eighty, like Ohio
21:03
Speaker 1: State is the favorite, but the path is a lot
21:07
Speaker 1: more difficult than it was last season. Indiana to me
21:10
Speaker 1: is third in this tier, and I don't think that's
21:12
Speaker 1: a knock. Like Signetti has earned a level of trust
21:15
Speaker 1: that no preseason spreadsheet can really capture. You're losing the
21:19
Speaker 1: Heisman winner and the number one draft pick in Fernando Mendoza.
21:22
Speaker 1: You're losing two one thousand yard backs. You're losing two
21:25
Speaker 1: eight hundred plus yard receivers and eight NFL draft picks,
21:29
Speaker 1: which is something that most programs collapse under when they
21:34
Speaker 1: get that kind of attrition. Indiana went into the portaload,
21:37
Speaker 1: they grabbed Josh Hoover. They put together another class that
21:39
Speaker 1: is built for the system. It's not just a fun
21:42
Speaker 1: underdog story like this is the defending national champion and
21:46
Speaker 1: Indiana at plus two fifty to win the Big ten,
21:49
Speaker 1: which is ahead of Oregon in the market. They've got
21:52
Speaker 1: a win total of ten and a half as well,
21:53
Speaker 1: like every single opponent's gonna have to circle this one
21:55
Speaker 1: on the calendar. The early slate is manageable, but the
21:58
Speaker 1: back half brings road trips to Nebraska, to Michigan, UH, Washington,
22:04
Speaker 1: and then Indiana's got to handle the reality that, you know,
22:07
Speaker 1: turnovers and close game breaks don't always follow the same
22:09
Speaker 1: way two years running like they had. They had a
22:13
Speaker 1: couple of close ones last year. The difference between these
22:16
Speaker 1: three teams builed down like Ohio State has got the
22:19
Speaker 1: biggest polo raw upside, Oregon's got the cleanest roster top
22:23
Speaker 1: to bottom. Indiana has the coaching operation that I trust
22:27
Speaker 1: the most to solve a problem before it becomes a loss.
22:31
Speaker 1: Now Tier two, that's where things get really interesting. USC Michigan,
22:37
Speaker 1: Penn State, and Washington. Right, USC has got the best
22:39
Speaker 1: shot of anybody to crash the top three. My Ipa
22:42
Speaker 1: is a proven quarterback. The offensive line has experienced King
22:45
Speaker 1: Miller and Wayman Jordan that they've got an elite backfield there.
22:49
Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley should field probably one of the best offenses
22:52
Speaker 1: in the league, even with the receiver turnover, the whole
22:56
Speaker 1: season may come down to whether Gary Patterson can turn
22:58
Speaker 1: a talented defense into a reliable one. Right, and their
23:03
Speaker 1: schedule is not friendly at all, Like they've got Oregon,
23:06
Speaker 1: they've got Washington, they got Ohio State, they've got Indiana,
23:09
Speaker 1: they've got four trips east of the Mountain time zone,
23:11
Speaker 1: and they have not proven to be very consistent when
23:13
Speaker 1: they have to travel. Like USC still has to prove
23:17
Speaker 1: that they can travel and play with the same consistency
23:20
Speaker 1: that they show at home. But there's some real juice here, right,
23:24
Speaker 1: Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington all come to la Like
23:28
Speaker 1: if these young receivers grow up quick, the defense becomes
23:31
Speaker 1: just good, not great, Like USC can at ten to two,
23:33
Speaker 1: they can play for the conference title. They can make
23:34
Speaker 1: the playoff and at plus fourteen hundred to win this conference.
23:38
Speaker 1: It's a more interesting non elite future on the board. Michigan.
23:45
Speaker 1: Michigan is fascinating, right Whittingham, Beck, DCJ. Hill coming from
23:52
Speaker 1: BYU and then you've got Bryce Underwood, Like that is
23:56
Speaker 1: an incredibly appealing foundation. They still recruit at a really
24:00
Speaker 1: high level. The new staff should build a more coherent
24:02
Speaker 1: offense while still keeping that physical identity intact, but the
24:07
Speaker 1: immediate projection is really tough, like this defensive front needs
24:10
Speaker 1: to be rebuilt. The receiver room is uncertain. The staff
24:14
Speaker 1: is navigating a major cultural and geographic shift all at once,
24:19
Speaker 1: because this whole coaching staff is West coast. Right, the
24:23
Speaker 1: schedule includes Oklahoma outside of the league. They've got Indiana
24:27
Speaker 1: and Penn State at home. They've got road trips to
24:28
Speaker 1: Oregon and Ohio State, five of the projected top seven
24:32
Speaker 1: Big Ten teams on the schedule. The ceiling is ten
24:36
Speaker 1: and two in a playoff berth. The floor is probably
24:39
Speaker 1: seven and five. While you know, if you go seven
24:45
Speaker 1: and five and you look pretty good against some of
24:46
Speaker 1: these bigger teams, everybody spends the offseason talking about how
24:50
Speaker 1: the program is trending in the right way, et cetera.
24:53
Speaker 1: They're plus fifteen hundred to win the league. They've got
24:56
Speaker 1: an eight and a half win total. I like them
25:00
Speaker 1: more long term than I like them at this year's number,
25:03
Speaker 1: because I don't know if I can trust it yet.
25:06
Speaker 1: Penn State is the opposite kind of puzzle. Right. The
25:09
Speaker 1: roster is almost entirely new, but the schedule might be
25:12
Speaker 1: the easiest in the league big time, like only three
25:16
Speaker 1: Big Ten opponents projected inside the national top forty three
25:19
Speaker 1: manageable non conference games. USC comes to Happy Valley and
25:23
Speaker 1: that's more likely going to be the whiteout game. The
25:26
Speaker 1: tough road trips are Michigan and Washington. Those are winnable games.
25:30
Speaker 1: Campbell and Beck know exactly what they want to run.
25:32
Speaker 1: Carson Hansen already knows this offense. The defense is being
25:35
Speaker 1: rebuilt around the same structural ideas, and that familiarity does
25:39
Speaker 1: raise the floor. The question, of course, is whether Iowa
25:42
Speaker 1: state level personnel can meet Penn state level expectations. Right
25:45
Speaker 1: out of the gate. Win total opened at nine and
25:47
Speaker 1: a half. It got bet down to eight and a half,
25:51
Speaker 1: and that move does make sense. Ten wins as possible
25:53
Speaker 1: because the schedule creates a lot of room to grow
25:55
Speaker 1: into it. So the question becomes like, is seven and
26:01
Speaker 1: five Is that if the talent gap shows up against
26:08
Speaker 1: a few strong teams on the slate, seven and five
26:11
Speaker 1: could be feasible? Could be, you know, but I don't
26:15
Speaker 1: think anybody is gonna be happy with that. Washington is
26:20
Speaker 1: the most dangerous spoiler in the whole second tier. Demon
26:23
Speaker 1: Williams gives them a puncher's chanceon basically every game. Four
26:27
Speaker 1: offensive line starters are back. Defense jumped from thirty six
26:30
Speaker 1: to ninth in defensive sp plus last year. The secondary
26:33
Speaker 1: has got real upside again. The thing that worries me
26:37
Speaker 1: is what has walked out the door Joanah Coleman, Denzel Boston,
26:40
Speaker 1: and most of the defensive tackle room. And last year
26:43
Speaker 1: against the elite defenses, this offense did not put up enough points.
26:46
Speaker 1: The schedule includes Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, and Oregon. Now
26:52
Speaker 1: the win total is at seven and a half Conference
26:54
Speaker 1: futures plus three thousand. Realistic ceiling is probably nine to
26:57
Speaker 1: three and a spot near the playoff floor seven and
27:02
Speaker 1: five if the missing pieces matters as much as I
27:05
Speaker 1: think they might. But Jedfish has always done a pretty
27:08
Speaker 1: good job of, you know, figuring these things out. He
27:13
Speaker 1: can create stars. They've they've got a good coaching staff there.
27:17
Speaker 1: Tier three is pretty crowded, right Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ucla,
27:25
Speaker 1: Northwestern Maryland. Iowa is still Iowa in the sense that
27:30
Speaker 1: the development culture deserves some respect. Kamari Moulton and DJ
27:36
Speaker 1: Bonamie bonam correct me in the comments. They're back, and
27:42
Speaker 1: Phil Parker is still one of the best defensive minds
27:44
Speaker 1: in the country. But this is a more uncertain Iowa
27:47
Speaker 1: team than we're used to like. The quarterback battle is unsettled.
27:51
Speaker 1: Three offensive line starters are gone, only six of last
27:53
Speaker 1: year's seventeen experienced defenders return, and just one and a
27:57
Speaker 1: half sacks out of last year's twenty six come back.
28:00
Speaker 1: Even special teams, which is normally a strength here, has
28:03
Speaker 1: got turnover this year, both at the special teams coordinator
28:07
Speaker 1: position and with the guys that are actually doing it.
28:11
Speaker 1: The range for this team runs anywhere from six to
28:13
Speaker 1: six to nine and three. The floor feels a little
28:16
Speaker 1: more real than usual. Illinois has got a reasonable answer
28:21
Speaker 1: at quarterback in East Carolina's kateen Hauser, and a pretty
28:24
Speaker 1: loaded backfield, and the schedule is favorable the issue though
28:28
Speaker 1: for offensive line starters, and thirteen of the top fifteen
28:30
Speaker 1: tacklers are gone, so Brett Bilma has built a study program.
28:34
Speaker 1: But I mean that is a lot of line of
28:36
Speaker 1: scrimmage production to replace. At once. Seven to nine wins
28:39
Speaker 1: is probably the realistic window here because the schedule affords it.
28:44
Speaker 1: Right Nebraska, They're gonna be a lot more fun to
28:47
Speaker 1: watch with Anthony Kalandria, which if you watch Cover three
28:51
Speaker 1: you know Tom has talked about him being the whoopsee
28:53
Speaker 1: Daisy King for two years running. Now they rank third
28:57
Speaker 1: nationally and returning production, so the roster should already know
29:00
Speaker 1: how to play together. But as I mentioned earlier, the
29:03
Speaker 1: defense is on its fourth coordinator in five years. Our
29:07
Speaker 1: model has their conference schedule as the second most difficult
29:09
Speaker 1: in the league. Nebraska could genuinely improve and still land
29:12
Speaker 1: at six and six. Minnesota has got one of the
29:16
Speaker 1: safer defensive floors in the middle tier. Anthony Smith is
29:18
Speaker 1: a premier pass rusher. PJ. Fleck usually fields a pretty
29:21
Speaker 1: discipline group and the top twenty five defense is a
29:24
Speaker 1: reasonable ask here, especially with the pace that they play
29:28
Speaker 1: on offense. The offensive ceiling, however, that's the question, right
29:30
Speaker 1: Drake Lindsay, He's got to create more explosive passing plays
29:33
Speaker 1: if the team is going to climb out of that
29:34
Speaker 1: six to eight win range. My favorite rebound story is
29:38
Speaker 1: going to be Wisconsin Colton Joseph I think completely changes
29:44
Speaker 1: what the offense can threaten and the defense was still
29:48
Speaker 1: pretty good last year. Like, the big thing for this
29:51
Speaker 1: team is they avoid Ohio State, they avoid Oregon, they
29:54
Speaker 1: avoid Indiana entirely. They draw six of the projected bottom
29:58
Speaker 1: seven teams in the league. The schedule gives Wisconsin a
30:01
Speaker 1: real chance to look dramatically better before we even nail
30:04
Speaker 1: down exactly how good they are. So that's gonna be
30:07
Speaker 1: an interesting one to watch. I can't wait to see
30:09
Speaker 1: them line up against Notre Dame. That's gonna be interesting.
30:12
Speaker 1: Another improvement candidate, it's going to be UCLA. Bob Chesney,
30:15
Speaker 1: of course, already upgraded the roster quickly. Nico has got
30:19
Speaker 1: a better environment around him. Wayne Knight comes in, brings
30:22
Speaker 1: some proven production there. The Bruins, I have got one
30:24
Speaker 1: of the three easiest Big Ten draws, and that new
30:27
Speaker 1: defensive line creates some risk, but you know, six to
30:31
Speaker 1: eight wins is realistic, and the upside looks a lot
30:33
Speaker 1: more interesting than it did last year. Northwestern might be
30:36
Speaker 1: a better football team and still have a hard time
30:38
Speaker 1: proving it, you know in the standings. You know, you
30:41
Speaker 1: bring in Chip Kelly and you bring Aiden Chiles in
30:44
Speaker 1: at quarterback, and they could absolutely transform this offense. The
30:47
Speaker 1: defense has they got quality of returning starters, but Northwestern
30:50
Speaker 1: has got the hardest conference schedule in our model road
30:53
Speaker 1: games at Ohio State, at Oregon, at Indiana, you got
30:56
Speaker 1: home dates against Penn State, Iowa, and Illinois, and you're
31:00
Speaker 1: or bye week comes in week three, which means from
31:03
Speaker 1: week four all the way through week thirteen. It's game
31:07
Speaker 1: after game after game after game, like a six and
31:11
Speaker 1: six Northwestern team might genuinely be better than a seven
31:14
Speaker 1: to five team or eight and four team somewhere else
31:16
Speaker 1: in this tier. Maryland already brought up them being second
31:21
Speaker 1: nationally in returning production. Malik Washington enters Tier two. The
31:24
Speaker 1: past rush has got some young talent. Clint Triggett should
31:28
Speaker 1: put some juice in that offense. The problem is Mike
31:32
Speaker 1: Loxley teams have a habit of fading late in the season.
31:36
Speaker 1: Just last year they had leads on a ton of
31:38
Speaker 1: teams and got beat late. Like the early schedule sets
31:41
Speaker 1: up a path for them to get to Bowl eligibility,
31:44
Speaker 1: but Maryland has still got to prove that they can finish.
31:48
Speaker 1: And then Tier four Rutgers, Michigan State, and Purdue. Everybody
31:53
Speaker 1: that has these three on the schedule has already chucked
31:56
Speaker 1: them up as wins. Rutgers has got the best individual
31:58
Speaker 1: offensive talent of the three, kJ Duff, Antoine Raymond. They
32:02
Speaker 1: give whoever's at quarterback some real weapons, but you know,
32:06
Speaker 1: Lonergan and Surris, they're still fighting for that job. The
32:09
Speaker 1: line is uncertain, The defense is going through a full
32:11
Speaker 1: tear down. You've only got two defenders who play at
32:13
Speaker 1: least one hundred snaps back last year, Ruggers could be
32:17
Speaker 1: an underdog in every conference game that they play this year.
32:21
Speaker 1: Michigan State. Everybody got excited about Pat Fitzgerald, but there's
32:26
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of proven depth here. The line
32:29
Speaker 1: and the receiver room are you know, really thin. The
32:33
Speaker 1: quarterback spot is unsettled. The defense returns almost nothing. Like
32:38
Speaker 1: a five and seven season would represent some real tangible
32:40
Speaker 1: progress for this team. Scheduling schedulingt nice. Either Perdue might
32:47
Speaker 1: have the most forgiving schedule of this group. Ryan Brown
32:49
Speaker 1: is back at quarterback, but Barry Odom is still rebuilding
32:53
Speaker 1: the roster from the ground up. Only ten of twenty
32:55
Speaker 1: nine experienced contributors return. Like if they get the Bowl eligibility,
33:00
Speaker 1: I mean that would be an absolute achievement, and that's
33:05
Speaker 1: putting it mildly, but really, any of these three, Like
33:09
Speaker 1: if they get to a bowl game, that is a
33:12
Speaker 1: massive step forward for any of these programs. I think
33:15
Speaker 1: the biggest strength in this league is pretty obvious, Like
33:18
Speaker 1: the top of it can flat out win a national championship.
33:21
Speaker 1: Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. They combine elite quarterback play,
33:25
Speaker 1: strong recruiting, high level coaching, and recent proof that it
33:30
Speaker 1: all works right. No other conference walks into the season
33:32
Speaker 1: with three teams that look this complete the quarterback depth.
33:38
Speaker 1: I think that backs that up right more saying Hoover
33:42
Speaker 1: and then going down the line, right Mayeva Williams, Underwood
33:45
Speaker 1: Yamelyeva Becked Colton, Joseph Calandria, different styles, but all legitimate
33:53
Speaker 1: weekly stars right the league. You've also got talent elsewhere, Right,
33:57
Speaker 1: Jeremiah Smith is probably the best overall play in this conference.
34:00
Speaker 1: You got a long list of defensive difference makers. John
34:03
Speaker 1: Henry Daily is at Michigan now a Mario Sorry, Amrio Washington,
34:08
Speaker 1: Mateo Ou Yongaliley, Anthony Smith, Brandon Finney, Junior, Corey Perch.
34:12
Speaker 1: Like best overall offense for me is Oregon. Like you've
34:18
Speaker 1: got more paired with like some real depth at running
34:21
Speaker 1: back and receiver. I think the highest offensive ceiling probably
34:25
Speaker 1: belongs to Ohio State because saying and Smith can just
34:28
Speaker 1: kind of take over a football game, and that offensive
34:32
Speaker 1: line should let Arthur Smith attack from favorable looks all day,
34:35
Speaker 1: like whatever your weakness is, that's what they're going to attack.
34:39
Speaker 1: And with Arthur Smith, the way that he's done things,
34:41
Speaker 1: it's the same thing over and over and over. Right,
34:45
Speaker 1: USC probably third best offense mayevo. The backs, the line
34:49
Speaker 1: are all proven. The receivers may not be there yet,
34:52
Speaker 1: but I mean we haven't seen them, not in the game. Anyway,
34:56
Speaker 1: Indiana does stay in that top group. You know, SIGNETI
35:02
Speaker 1: system and portal evaluation have earned that trust. I think
35:05
Speaker 1: Penn State should be efficient, Like I'm not sold yet
35:10
Speaker 1: that the Iowa State transplant becomes explosive immediately, but the
35:14
Speaker 1: schedule is set up and they all know what they're doing,
35:18
Speaker 1: so or at least they should. On defense, Oregon is
35:21
Speaker 1: the unit that I trust the most. Ohio State might
35:23
Speaker 1: finish first nationally because I mean, the recruiting talent is
35:26
Speaker 1: just absurd there, but that turnover does create some real uncertainty.
35:30
Speaker 1: You know, seven new starters. On defense, Indiana should stay
35:33
Speaker 1: strong Michigan has got an outstanding coaching floor with Whittingham
35:36
Speaker 1: and former BYU defense coordinator j Hill running things. Iowa
35:41
Speaker 1: is always going to deserve respect as long as Phil
35:43
Speaker 1: Partner's there, even though they do have a lot of
35:45
Speaker 1: turnover on that side of the ball. Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern,
35:51
Speaker 1: they've all got a shot at finishing inside the top
35:53
Speaker 1: thirty nationally. The weaknesses, though, those start at the bottom,
35:59
Speaker 1: and we talked about rut Michigan State, and Purdue right
36:01
Speaker 1: those are all full blown rebuilds. Maryland and Wisconsin have
36:04
Speaker 1: been promising improvement for years, but they still got to
36:07
Speaker 1: turn that optimism into actual wins. The league is also
36:11
Speaker 1: dealing with unusually heavy defensive turnover across the board. Ohio
36:15
Speaker 1: State lost the most obviously, Iowa lost eleven experienced defenders.
36:20
Speaker 1: Penn State basically imported an entirely new one. Even if
36:23
Speaker 1: we do trust Lynn as a defensive coordinator, you still
36:28
Speaker 1: got some stuff you got to figure out on that
36:29
Speaker 1: side of the ball. Illinois is replacing most of its
36:31
Speaker 1: front six, Michigan lost a lot of front seven production.
36:35
Speaker 1: UCLA has got a completely new two deep on the
36:37
Speaker 1: defensive line, and then the scheduling imbalance. We got to
36:42
Speaker 1: talk about that. It is enormous Penn State can finish
36:44
Speaker 1: with a better record than a more talented team purely
36:47
Speaker 1: because of who they avoid. Northwestern could be better than
36:50
Speaker 1: they were last year and still struggle to get to
36:53
Speaker 1: a bowl game. Raw records are going to lie to
36:55
Speaker 1: us plenty in the conference this year. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
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37:38
Speaker 1: any of our college football coverage this season. Now, our
37:42
Speaker 1: conference model has Northwestern with the hardest Big Ten draw
37:45
Speaker 1: and that's followed by Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Washington, and Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana,
37:55
Speaker 1: and Oregon round out the tough raf. Easiest draws in
37:58
Speaker 1: the league belong to Penn State, with Washington's or sorry
38:03
Speaker 1: Wisconsin second, Ucla third in Illinois fourth, Michigan State and Ruggers.
38:07
Speaker 1: They do avoid a lot of the league's top end,
38:11
Speaker 1: but the roster quality is going to, in my opinion,
38:14
Speaker 1: keep them from taking full advantage of it. Ohio State
38:17
Speaker 1: schedule matters most to the title race. Like they open,
38:21
Speaker 1: They've got real tests at Texas. In week two, they
38:24
Speaker 1: traveled to Iowa and week four Indiana, then USC. They've
38:28
Speaker 1: got Oregon and Michigan coming to Columbus. They could be
38:31
Speaker 1: the best team in the country still lose twice without
38:33
Speaker 1: ever playing below expectations. Oregon's path is a lot cleaner, right.
38:39
Speaker 1: They get USC early, they got to go to LA
38:42
Speaker 1: for that, they go to Ohio State on November seventh.
38:47
Speaker 1: You've got you got Michigan and Washington coming out to Eugene.
38:54
Speaker 1: And outside of those games, there just aren't many obvious
38:57
Speaker 1: spots for a team with that kind of a raw
39:00
Speaker 1: to trip up. Indiana's got a pretty friendly first six games.
39:04
Speaker 1: The back half is where the title defense gets real right,
39:07
Speaker 1: road trips to Nebraska, Michigan, and Washington. Every one of
39:10
Speaker 1: those teams is gonna treat the defending champ like a
39:12
Speaker 1: measuring stick game. Now USC they are. They got a
39:21
Speaker 1: tricky combination they've got, and the combination of here, I'm
39:26
Speaker 1: gonna move this over so that people can see a
39:28
Speaker 1: little bit better. Maybe I'll do that because I knew
39:33
Speaker 1: I didn't have all that on the screen. USC's combination
39:36
Speaker 1: of competition and travel in this league is insane. Oregon, Washington,
39:40
Speaker 1: Ohio State, and Indiana are all on the schedule. Plus
39:43
Speaker 1: they've got four other trips east of Mountain time zone.
39:47
Speaker 1: Like even a very good USC team could have trouble
39:49
Speaker 1: surviving that gauntlet without two or three losses. Michigan, they
39:54
Speaker 1: got Oklahoma outside of the conference, have already brought that
39:56
Speaker 1: up in Week two. Indiana and Penn State are at home.
40:00
Speaker 1: You got road trips to Oregon and Ohio State. It's
40:03
Speaker 1: a tough first year slate for Winningham and his staff
40:06
Speaker 1: to be able to walk into. Now, Penn State, I've
40:09
Speaker 1: mentioned this before. They got the schedule advantage. Like everybody's
40:13
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about this, this scheduling all season only
40:18
Speaker 1: three projected top forty Big ten teams on the docket.
40:20
Speaker 1: You got a manageable non con USC is coming to
40:23
Speaker 1: a happy valley. Michigan and Washington are the two real
40:26
Speaker 1: road tests, and both of those are like you can
40:29
Speaker 1: pass those road tests if the if the NIDNY Lions
40:32
Speaker 1: win nine or ten games, We're gonna spend a lot
40:35
Speaker 1: of time deciding how much of that is real development
40:37
Speaker 1: and how much is just the draw? Like does ten
40:40
Speaker 1: and two get Penn State into the playoff? That's a
40:47
Speaker 1: that's a legit question. Now, I would assume that they
40:50
Speaker 1: probably would because for years the CFP has always just
40:54
Speaker 1: done it based on losses. But what would be the
40:58
Speaker 1: big wins? Right? Like, I guess if you get one
41:01
Speaker 1: win over USC, but you lose at Washington and at Michigan, Like,
41:12
Speaker 1: I don't know if one win over USC at home
41:15
Speaker 1: in a whiteout is going to be I don't know.
41:18
Speaker 1: We're going to see, We're gonna see there are five
41:21
Speaker 1: games that feel like real turning points of the season.
41:25
Speaker 1: Right USC at Penn State is going to tell us
41:27
Speaker 1: a bunch on October tenth that could let us know
41:31
Speaker 1: who is going to be the fourth contender. Potentially Ohio
41:34
Speaker 1: State at Indiana October seventeenth. That one's a rematch of
41:38
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five Big Ten Championship game. Massive game
41:42
Speaker 1: in Plum. I'm talking they are going. They are so
41:44
Speaker 1: ready for that ball game, and they even won the
41:47
Speaker 1: game last year in the Big Ten title game. Indiana
41:50
Speaker 1: at Michigan on October twenty fourth. It gives us Signetti
41:53
Speaker 1: against Whittingham, which is a fun coaching matchup, huge test
41:56
Speaker 1: for Rice Underwood as well, and we'll figure out a
42:00
Speaker 1: little more about both of those teams. Oregon at Ohio
42:03
Speaker 1: State maybe the biggest Big Ten game of the year,
42:07
Speaker 1: preview the conference bidle game, potentially Indiana at Washington November
42:12
Speaker 1: twenty first, That could swing both Indiana's playoff positioning or
42:18
Speaker 1: Washington's dark horse case right, and then you throw it like,
42:22
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of other ones as well. Oregon at USC,
42:25
Speaker 1: Penn State at Michigan, Ohio State at USC, USC at Indiana,
42:30
Speaker 1: Michigan at Oregon, Washington at Oregon on rivalry weekend. Obviously,
42:35
Speaker 1: you know the game Michigan at Ohio State. You got
42:39
Speaker 1: you got a back half of the season that is
42:41
Speaker 1: loaded right outside of the league we got to keep
42:46
Speaker 1: an eye Wisconsin playing Notre Dame at lambeau Field opening weekend.
42:49
Speaker 1: Week two, Oklahoma heading to Michigan. We've already brought up
42:53
Speaker 1: Ohio State playing against Texas. Other than that, everybody kind
42:57
Speaker 1: of kind of steered clear as far as their non
43:00
Speaker 1: conference stuff. Minnesota, Mississippi State. That could be interesting. I'm
43:06
Speaker 1: curious to see what this is going to look like.
43:08
Speaker 1: So let's discuss the championship race. Now. I'm not gonna
43:11
Speaker 1: hide it. Like my projected Big Ten title game is
43:13
Speaker 1: the Oregon in Ohio State, the ranked number one and
43:15
Speaker 1: two nationally and a lot of the preseason numbers. Both
43:18
Speaker 1: are projected around ten point two wins regular season wins.
43:22
Speaker 1: Both return of the league quarterbacks. Both have enough defensive
43:24
Speaker 1: talent to win every game on the schedule even if
43:27
Speaker 1: the quarterbacks aren't any good, but they are. Indiana is
43:30
Speaker 1: the first team out, and I mean, obviously I don't
43:34
Speaker 1: like leaving them out, but you know, Oregon Ohio State
43:37
Speaker 1: bring back way more proven star power. Indiana is replacing
43:40
Speaker 1: an enormous chunk of that championship roster. You have to
43:44
Speaker 1: assume there's going to be some kind of regression. My
43:47
Speaker 1: pick to actually whin the league is going to be
43:48
Speaker 1: Oregon this year. Like Ohio State. Ohio State might be
43:52
Speaker 1: the best team on paper, Indiana might have the best
43:55
Speaker 1: culture and the best evaluation process anywhere in the country.
43:58
Speaker 1: I don't trust the fact that Indiana is kind of
44:03
Speaker 1: thin on the offensive line. I mean, their coaches will
44:07
Speaker 1: tell you that they know exactly what they're doing, but
44:09
Speaker 1: they've only got thirteen offensive linemen in that room. And
44:13
Speaker 1: I don't know who you're gonna practice against. And if
44:16
Speaker 1: you have any kind of injury anyway, Oregon it is
44:20
Speaker 1: who I'm going with because Oregon gives me the cleanest
44:22
Speaker 1: combination of quarterback, defense, continuity, schedule, and price right and
44:28
Speaker 1: yet the coordinators. I understand having new coordinators is a
44:33
Speaker 1: risky but Landing has done this before. Dante Moore at quarterback,
44:38
Speaker 1: he is ready. Most of the defensive front is back.
44:41
Speaker 1: The secondary probably best in the country. You know, we
44:46
Speaker 1: don't tell Notre Dame, don't tell Alabama, but still really
44:49
Speaker 1: talented secondary. The backs and receivers run deep. Oregon has
44:53
Speaker 1: got roughly two hundred returning career starts, and the schedule
44:57
Speaker 1: is just way more manageable than what Ohio States. The
45:01
Speaker 1: risks are there, certainly that offensive line being rebuilt again,
45:06
Speaker 1: that's not great. But Oregon has also spent three years
45:09
Speaker 1: proving it can beat almost everybody except for the teams
45:12
Speaker 1: that stand between it and a trophy, right, and that's
45:16
Speaker 1: they got a trophy a couple of years ago they
45:17
Speaker 1: won the Big Ten championship. That's not what they were
45:20
Speaker 1: looking for. To my confidence in this pic, medium like,
45:26
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about this, but this is the
45:29
Speaker 1: year that I'm going to take the Ducks to finally
45:30
Speaker 1: finish the job. All right, let's talk money, because the
45:33
Speaker 1: Big Ten is a perfect example of team quality and
45:36
Speaker 1: betting value not being the same thing. Ohio State at
45:39
Speaker 1: plus one to eighty to me is a price fade
45:43
Speaker 1: that's not a team fade. They might be the best
45:45
Speaker 1: team in this conference, they might be the best team
45:47
Speaker 1: in the country, but the schedule is way too difficult
45:50
Speaker 1: and the defense losing seven regular starters from last year.
45:54
Speaker 1: The fact that Oregon offers a nearly identical championship profile
45:59
Speaker 1: at plus two to seven, I would rather take that
46:01
Speaker 1: better number with a cleaner path, because I think it's
46:04
Speaker 1: more likely that Oregon makes the Big Ten title game
46:07
Speaker 1: than Ohio State makes it, which is pretty wild. Oregon
46:11
Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five or better is my favorite
46:14
Speaker 1: conference future outright, like some places might have had it
46:20
Speaker 1: over three hundred that would be better, but two seventy
46:23
Speaker 1: five sounds reasonable enough. I've got that one. But the
46:26
Speaker 1: Ducks are close enough to Ohio State. Never projection that
46:28
Speaker 1: the price gap actually matters here. USC at plus fourteen hundred,
46:33
Speaker 1: that's an interesting dark horse future on the board. I've
46:36
Speaker 1: mentioned the quarterback, the backs, the offensive line. They're already
46:40
Speaker 1: good enough. The bet is that the un receivers are
46:43
Speaker 1: going to grow u pretty quick and that Gary Patterson
46:44
Speaker 1: builds a functional defense. The schedule is difficult, so I
46:47
Speaker 1: would not call this high confidence, but USC is they're
46:51
Speaker 1: the one team outside of the top three with a
46:55
Speaker 1: believable path to the championship game. Now on wintow, this
47:01
Speaker 1: one's an interesting one, and I agree with Duck on this.
47:05
Speaker 1: I really like Wisconsin over six and a half. I
47:08
Speaker 1: think Colton Joseph is a huge upgrade for them now,
47:14
Speaker 1: whether he stays healthy or not, because Wisconsin's that they
47:17
Speaker 1: have not had a lot of luck with that, but
47:19
Speaker 1: I think he's a major upgrade and the defense gives
47:22
Speaker 1: him a floor. They avoid Ohio, State, Oregon, and Indiana.
47:26
Speaker 1: They've got six of the projected bottom seven teams right
47:29
Speaker 1: there on that schedule, you know, numbers around minus one
47:32
Speaker 1: oh five at over six and a half, that's pretty fair.
47:36
Speaker 1: Maryland over four and a half is also pretty appealing.
47:39
Speaker 1: Returning production number is right there, Malik Washington in a
47:43
Speaker 1: second year, you got a veteran defense, you got a
47:45
Speaker 1: favorable opening stretch that points you to bowl eligibility. And
47:51
Speaker 1: I don't even need them to get there. I just
47:52
Speaker 1: need him to get to five. But with that one,
47:56
Speaker 1: make sure and watch the price right if the juice
47:58
Speaker 1: gets too expensive, Like I ain't got any interest in
48:02
Speaker 1: betting in laying a bunch of juws with Maryland, that
48:06
Speaker 1: seems like a fool's Errand UCLA, probably the most lined
48:10
Speaker 1: sensitive team on this list. Over five and a half
48:12
Speaker 1: was a strong play six and a half. It's more
48:15
Speaker 1: of a lean right Like Chesney and Nico, they make
48:20
Speaker 1: for a pretty believable improvement story, but a full win
48:25
Speaker 1: of market movement definitely matters on this one. There's a
48:31
Speaker 1: lot of stuff that we got to see us LA
48:33
Speaker 1: prove right Iowa under seven and a half. That's my
48:37
Speaker 1: favorite under. You got unresolved quarterback battle, you got three
48:41
Speaker 1: offensive line starters. When I first started going through Iowa,
48:46
Speaker 1: my thought process was it's Kirk ference, Like, of course
48:51
Speaker 1: they're gonna get over seven and a half. And when
48:52
Speaker 1: I recorded one of their things about a month ago,
48:55
Speaker 1: I said, yeah, yeah, like they'll figure it all out.
48:57
Speaker 1: But man, when you look through the rest of this conference,
48:59
Speaker 1: you look through their schedule and you see what they're
49:04
Speaker 1: going to be up against and what they have to rebuild.
49:08
Speaker 1: Right I told you about the quarterback battle, three offensive
49:11
Speaker 1: line starters gone, I think they'll still probably figure out
49:14
Speaker 1: offensive line, almost all of the pass rushers gone. They're
49:17
Speaker 1: bringing in a lot of D two guys and fcs
49:20
Speaker 1: or not fcs, G five guys, G six guys, defense,
49:25
Speaker 1: and special teams dealing with more turnover than they're used
49:27
Speaker 1: to seeing from this program like Phil Parker and Kirk Farnce.
49:32
Speaker 1: Keep the floor from totally caving in eight wins is
49:35
Speaker 1: a pretty big ask for this specific roster. So I
49:38
Speaker 1: have gone both ways on that one. So right now,
49:45
Speaker 1: I really like the under, but hell already had a
49:47
Speaker 1: bed end on the over, so the number had moved.
49:50
Speaker 1: I'm just tough team to figure out. Tough team to
49:55
Speaker 1: figure out Michigan under eight and a half. That one
49:57
Speaker 1: kind of makes sense. Whittingham is an excellent higher, but
50:01
Speaker 1: receiver questions, defensive front turnover, staff transition, and a schedule
50:06
Speaker 1: like that. Oklahoma, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State nine
50:12
Speaker 1: wins pretty heavy lift in year one. Penn State, this
50:16
Speaker 1: is an interesting one. I had talked myself into. I
50:21
Speaker 1: was excited about this whole Matt Campbell train. Right, But
50:26
Speaker 1: the more you look at this, under nine and a
50:30
Speaker 1: half was a good number before the market moved on it.
50:34
Speaker 1: Right right now you've got eight and a half. Most
50:38
Speaker 1: of the value has already gone here. Like the easiest
50:41
Speaker 1: schedule in the league could still carry them even with
50:43
Speaker 1: a roster that's still trying to find itself. Nine wins
50:46
Speaker 1: ain't crazy, Like I could see them getting to nine
50:49
Speaker 1: wins with this schedule. Ohio State over nine and a half,
50:53
Speaker 1: Oregon over ten and a half both defensible bets. Pricing
50:56
Speaker 1: and you know the then margin for those it keeps
51:01
Speaker 1: them just a notch below. My favorite plays Indiana ten
51:06
Speaker 1: and a half, Like that's a pass for me either way.
51:09
Speaker 1: Like the system does deserve trust, but the roster turnover,
51:13
Speaker 1: that back half road schedule, that's some real regression risk
51:16
Speaker 1: on that. I mean, are they they went sixteen or
51:21
Speaker 1: oh last year? Like, do we think they're really only
51:24
Speaker 1: gonna lose like at most two games? Well to go
51:28
Speaker 1: over ten and a half, you can only lose one game,
51:30
Speaker 1: like do we really eh? As far as the summary
51:35
Speaker 1: heading into the year, I think Oregon is gonna win
51:38
Speaker 1: the conference. I really like Wisconsin over six and a half.
51:43
Speaker 1: If I had to pick an under, I'd probably go
51:45
Speaker 1: with Iowa under seven and a half. And if you're
51:48
Speaker 1: gonna make a long shot, bet USC is probably the
51:54
Speaker 1: most interesting long shot future UCLA is they're only interesting
52:00
Speaker 1: the right number and that best Penn State number that's
52:04
Speaker 1: already that's gone, that's already gone. All right, final predictions
52:08
Speaker 1: and and then we'll close this thing out. My surprise
52:13
Speaker 1: team is USC one of the best returning quarterbacks in
52:16
Speaker 1: the league, an elite backfield, strong line roster that keeps
52:20
Speaker 1: climbing through recruiting. Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington all have
52:25
Speaker 1: to travel to LA And if Patterson gets this thing
52:27
Speaker 1: right on defense, and they always seem to find receivers
52:32
Speaker 1: out there, like USC could go ten to two, they
52:35
Speaker 1: could play for the Big Ten championship. It's they could
52:38
Speaker 1: really throw a wrench into a lot of these things.
52:41
Speaker 1: With my top three teams right, my biggest disappointment team
52:45
Speaker 1: relative to expectations is going to be Michigan. And that's
52:49
Speaker 1: not saying like that the Whittingham hire fails. It just
52:51
Speaker 1: means you're one is going to be tougher than people think.
52:54
Speaker 1: There's a lot to be replaced here, and Underwood still
52:58
Speaker 1: needs receivers to develop around him. The schedule doesn't do
53:00
Speaker 1: him any favors. Like a seven and five season could
53:03
Speaker 1: still show some real progress and it can set Michigan
53:07
Speaker 1: up really well for twenty twenty seven. Final word on this,
53:12
Speaker 1: like the Big Ten doesn't need to make an argument
53:13
Speaker 1: for where it stands in college football, not anymore. Like
53:17
Speaker 1: Michigan won it in twenty three, Ohio State in twenty
53:19
Speaker 1: four Indiana last year. Ohio State's gonna be your upside pick.
53:23
Speaker 1: Indiana is the trust the system. Pick Oregon is the
53:26
Speaker 1: complete pick. USC is probably the most dangerous outsider Michigan
53:30
Speaker 1: and Penn State stepping into fascinating new eras Washington has
53:35
Speaker 1: got a quarterback that's capable of blowing up this whole thing,
53:38
Speaker 1: and Wisconsin and UCLA are two rebound teams that I
53:43
Speaker 1: may be more interested in those teams than I am
53:45
Speaker 1: the ones at the top, just because I want to
53:47
Speaker 1: see what they're going to do to rebuild this, to
53:49
Speaker 1: redo this. Like the conference is top heavy, but when
53:53
Speaker 1: the top of the league includes three teams that can
53:54
Speaker 1: genuinely win a national title, I don't think that's a knock.
53:58
Speaker 1: I think that's basically the whole story. Like the Big
54:01
Speaker 1: Ten win three straight titles with three different programs, and
54:04
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, Oregon is betting that the championship
54:08
Speaker 1: number four finally belongs to them, and I'm curious to
54:12
Speaker 1: see it happen. All right, So if you haven't already,
54:15
Speaker 1: go ahead, do me a favor. Like the video subscribe
54:17
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Speaker 1: the podcast. Don't forget about the wcee Clips YouTube channel.
54:24
Speaker 1: I've got to get to one thousand subscribers over there.
54:27
Speaker 1: Just started that thing up recently. But do me that
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Speaker 1: favor and go and check that thing out, because I
54:33
Speaker 1: post a lot of the clips and whatnot from here
54:36
Speaker 1: over there because I'm trying to separate it. I'm trying
54:39
Speaker 1: to keep a little more organized so that the main
54:43
Speaker 1: Winning Cure is Everything page is easier to follow. That's
54:48
Speaker 1: all I'm looking for. I just want it to be
54:49
Speaker 1: easier to follow. So we're getting there eventually. Don't forget
54:53
Speaker 1: about buying me a coffee. Don't forget about the podcast
54:57
Speaker 1: as well. Lots of fun things showing up soon. But
55:01
Speaker 1: tell me who your picks are. Jump in the comments,
55:04
Speaker 1: tell me what you like about this video, which you don't.
55:07
Speaker 1: Tell me what you think about the Big Ten. Next
55:10
Speaker 1: week we're gonna have the acc I'm gonna record that
55:12
Speaker 1: one a little early so that I can. I'm gonna
55:17
Speaker 1: go to the beach for a few days with kids.
55:21
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a good time. Gonna be a good time.
55:23
Speaker 1: All right. With that said, let's get out of here.
55:26
Speaker 1: Take care of yourself, take care of each other. God
55:29
Speaker 1: bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash.
55:34
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe, leave a
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