Latest / Politix / Forget It Jake, It's Shutdown Town

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Forget It Jake, It's Shutdown Town · Politix

0:00
The content of the segment just continued to be Chuck Schumer
0:03
is a huge lame ass.
0:05
SPEAKER_01: Well, he is.
0:12
Hey everyone,
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you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: As anticipated in last week's episode,
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SPEAKER_00: the government did indeed shut down,
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SPEAKER_00: and as of this recording,
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SPEAKER_00: we remain at an impasse.
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SPEAKER_00: At the same time,
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Donald Trump and Stephen Miller are trying harder than ever to
0:28
foment street
0:28
SPEAKER_00: violence in blue cities and maybe even martial law.
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SPEAKER_00: So we'll talk about the weird beltway rules of government shutdowns,
0:37
SPEAKER_00: the ways this one might end,
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and the jarring contrast between the terms of the shutdown
0:42
fight and the Trump
0:43
SPEAKER_00: administration's actual conduct in the streets.
0:46
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
0:47
SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
0:55
SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Glacius.
1:00
So we are on Ghislaine Maxwell pardon watch,
1:04
which is a strange set of words to say in a row.
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SPEAKER_00: And also,
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I think will turn out to be strangely relevant to our seemingly
1:11
unrelated topic of
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SPEAKER_00: why Republicans might lose the government shutdown.
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But do you want to talk about the Epstein connection to this
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stuff at the top?
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SPEAKER_00: Or do you want to
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SPEAKER_00: Is that like candy for later?
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SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, I think it's worth flagging.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean, just because it connects in a sort of narrow, tactical way.
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SPEAKER_01: So,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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I would say that one thing about the shutdown is that Democrats
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who I know a week
1:38
SPEAKER_01: ago were committed to shutting down the government.
1:42
SPEAKER_01: or rather were committed to a strategy- Allowing a shutdown ahead.
1:47
SPEAKER_01: They all believed the shutdown was going to happen.
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SPEAKER_01: They were not prepared to break with leadership or anything like that,
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SPEAKER_01: but they did not have a lot of confidence in the strategy.
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SPEAKER_01: They saw it as more something that had been forced upon them by various
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SPEAKER_01: circumstances and that they were going along with.
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A week in,
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they feel like it's going a lot better than they expected and
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that that's good.
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SPEAKER_01: One reason that it's going relatively well for them,
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SPEAKER_01: not the only reason,
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but one reason is that they have – Senate Democrats have not
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been jammed up with a
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SPEAKER_01: bunch of message votes.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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So that there's not like a bill on the floor that's like the
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Pay the Troops Act of
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SPEAKER_01: 2025,
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guaranteeing that the troops will get paid for the duration of
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the shutdown.
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And like one thing you can do when you control the floor is you
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can just spin up
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like any number of votes that are meant to be like tough for
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your opponents.
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And so one reason that Republicans haven't done that is that
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the House is out of session.
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SPEAKER_01: The House passed their, you know, clean CR and left town.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: And one reason they left town was like shutdown maneuvering.
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But one reason they left town is that they are refusing to seat
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Adelita Grijalva,
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SPEAKER_01: who won a special election.
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SPEAKER_01: And,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: they're not like refusing to seat her in a like,
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SPEAKER_01: this is a dictatorship now kind of way.
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SPEAKER_01: They're just saying the House is out of session,
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SPEAKER_01: so she can't be seated until we come back into session.
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SPEAKER_01: If they come back into session,
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she will be seated and the Epstein discharge position will get
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over 218 votes,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: So if Senate Republicans put a message bill on the floor,
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they're always running the risk that like Democrats will defect
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and actually vote
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SPEAKER_01: for the Republican message bill.
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SPEAKER_01: in which case it gets kicked to the House.
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SPEAKER_01: And now the Republicans are jamming themselves up, right?
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SPEAKER_01: Because it would be actually not Democrats,
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but House Republicans who are preventing the troops from
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getting paid or whatever
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SPEAKER_01: else.
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And the only way to get them paid would be to bring the House
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back into session and
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SPEAKER_01: pass the discharge petition.
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That's just like one small way in which the like Epstein blast
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radius is kind of
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SPEAKER_01: expanding and altering the tactical environment.
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I don't know if you watched this pool spray from the Oval
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Office yesterday.
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Caitlin Collins raised to Donald Trump the fact that the
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Supreme Court had denied
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SPEAKER_00: Jelaine Maxwell her...
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SPEAKER_00: Appeal.
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So basically she's going to serve out her term or she's going
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to get clemency from Trump.
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SPEAKER_00: And so Caitlin Collins asked her, are you considering a pardon for her?
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And Trump,
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he has like a few tells and one of his tells is like,
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oh,
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I haven't heard of that.
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SPEAKER_00: Is that can you tell me a little bit more about the details of that?
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know anything about it.
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SPEAKER_00: Like he's playing dumb,
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SPEAKER_00: but in this like over the top way where he in this case,
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SPEAKER_00: he was like,
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SPEAKER_00: oh,
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SPEAKER_00: I haven't heard that name in so long.
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And it was literally like three weeks ago or four weeks ago
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that he sent his deputy
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SPEAKER_00: attorney general to.
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Like interview her in prison and set her up with a cushy club
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fed minimum security
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SPEAKER_00: prison situation.
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So like it's clearly already on his mind and this is his way of
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trying not to let on that.
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He's thinking about this like,
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oh,
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I hadn't given it any thought,
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but of course he had.
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SPEAKER_00: Um,
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SPEAKER_00: and,
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SPEAKER_00: uh,
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SPEAKER_00: and then Caitlin Collins is like,
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SPEAKER_00: but she's a,
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SPEAKER_00: she's a convicted child sex trafficker.
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SPEAKER_00: And he's like, I'll have to ask DOJ.
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SPEAKER_00: I'll have to ask DOJ.
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SPEAKER_00: Many people want pardons for me.
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Many people keep asking me for a part,
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pardons,
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including the one I call puff daddy.
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SPEAKER_00: Yes.
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SPEAKER_00: And so just like,
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what's happening in Donald Trump's head is this like registry
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of sex criminals that
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SPEAKER_00: he happens to be close with,
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SPEAKER_00: or he happens to see some political advantage in being close with.
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SPEAKER_00: And, and like they clearly occupy the same neuron and, and like,
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I don't know if it's just like he's out there trying to
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establish that it wouldn't
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SPEAKER_00: be such a strange thing for him to pardon Jelaine Maxwell.
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SPEAKER_00: Because look at all these other sex criminals I'm considering pardoning.
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SPEAKER_00: But it like...
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SPEAKER_00: It's weighing on him,
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and it seems like whatever deal was struck behind the scenes
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between Maxwell's
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SPEAKER_00: people,
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SPEAKER_00: Trump's people,
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it may not have been fully consummated with her just getting
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into this lower
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SPEAKER_00: security prison.
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SPEAKER_00: There may be more to come.
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And part of me thinks that if he's already in so deep that he's
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just in the Oval
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SPEAKER_00: Office talking about Maxwell,
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SPEAKER_00: why not –
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SPEAKER_00: Let the discharge petition get to 218.
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All that does is force a House vote on legislation to compel
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the release of the Epstein files.
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SPEAKER_00: But that could still die in the Senate.
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Trump could also ignore the law or come up with some dumb
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argument about how it
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SPEAKER_00: violates separation of powers and litigate it forever.
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SPEAKER_00: It's not like Republicans are...
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SPEAKER_00: By refusing to seat Grijalva,
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SPEAKER_00: like providing him much cover from his own very out in the open cover up.
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SPEAKER_01: No, I mean, it seems more like they're providing cover for themselves.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I guess that's fair enough.
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SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
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SPEAKER_01: Because I think a bunch of House Republicans,
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SPEAKER_01: if the vote was held,
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SPEAKER_01: would feel pressure to vote for it.
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SPEAKER_01: And Trump doesn't want them to vote for it.
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SPEAKER_01: I mean, this is all like, to get closer to our main point, right?
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SPEAKER_01: Like, there are these conventions of Congress that
7:59
SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: And like how Congress is covered and how Congress is understood.
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SPEAKER_01: That constitute like,
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SPEAKER_01: not like the rules of congressional procedure,
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SPEAKER_01: but the rules of like congressional discourse.
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So that it used to be considered that to vote for cloture on
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something and to vote
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SPEAKER_01: for final passage on something were distinct acts.
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SPEAKER_01: Right.
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SPEAKER_01: Yes.
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SPEAKER_01: Right?
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SPEAKER_01: And you could get covered that way.
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SPEAKER_01: And it was a shift in – not a shift in the Senate rules,
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SPEAKER_01: but a shift in the journalistic norms in the mid-aughts,
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SPEAKER_01: like at the very start of our careers.
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The journalistic norms shifted so that like if you opposed
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something as a senator,
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SPEAKER_01: you were expected to filibuster it.
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SPEAKER_00: Well,
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SPEAKER_00: I feel like what happened,
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SPEAKER_00: I think,
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really is that Mitch McConnell in particular changed the norms
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around filibustering
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SPEAKER_00: to make it the expectation as opposed to the exception.
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SPEAKER_00: And over time, the- Yes, yes.
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SPEAKER_01: But I mean, it shifted.
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The shift in McConnell's practice and the shift in the coverage
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practice sort of
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SPEAKER_01: like moved in tandem a little bit,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: To the point where like, by the time, anyway-
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SPEAKER_01: Discharge petitions are not covered that way.
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SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
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It is considered totally acceptable as a frontline majority
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party member to be
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SPEAKER_01: like,
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SPEAKER_01: sure,
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SPEAKER_01: I'm for that.
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but it doesn't come up to the floor for a vote because the
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speaker isn't bringing
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SPEAKER_01: it to the floor.
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SPEAKER_01: And then people can ask you, well, will you sign the discharge position?
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SPEAKER_01: And if you're like, well, I don't know about that.
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Everybody agrees that to sign a discharge petition is like a
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major step that differs from like
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SPEAKER_01: merely favoring something, right?
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So you are allowed to exist in the state of quantum
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superposition that like most
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SPEAKER_01: House Republicans are in,
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SPEAKER_01: where they aren't signing the Epstein discharge position,
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SPEAKER_01: but that doesn't get covered as Representative Brosnahan is...
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SPEAKER_01: Brosnahan,
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SPEAKER_01: I'm forgetting his name,
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SPEAKER_01: Pennsylvania guy.
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SPEAKER_00: Brosnahan.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, is blocking the discharge petition.
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SPEAKER_01: But if it does come to the floor...
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SPEAKER_01: like his vote will be considered politically significant.
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SPEAKER_01: I do want to, I do want to just map.
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SPEAKER_00: I just want to break in here to like,
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to like distinguish for people between like campaign politics
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and the politics of
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SPEAKER_00: Congress as covered in newspapers,
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SPEAKER_00: because,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: there's,
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there's a related convention where the minority party is
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essentially expected to
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SPEAKER_00: vote against house rules,
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SPEAKER_00: which like govern,
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SPEAKER_00: govern terms of debate,
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SPEAKER_00: debate over legislation.
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SPEAKER_00: And so,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: when Republicans are in the minority,
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SPEAKER_00: they'll,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: force a vote on a privileged motion to say,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: apple pie is great or puppies are great or,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: you're covering up the Epstein files,
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SPEAKER_00: not us.
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SPEAKER_00: And it is incumbent on the majority party to vote down these motions,
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SPEAKER_00: right,
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SPEAKER_00: so that they could get to the bill that they actually want to talk about.
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SPEAKER_00: And
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SPEAKER_00: In the press, you know, the reporters aren't fooled by this.
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So they don't write big screaming headlines about how Democrats
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voted for this,
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SPEAKER_00: Republicans voted for that.
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SPEAKER_00: They know that that's just underbrush that's being swept out.
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But then you get to election time and like those votes do end
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up being the like
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SPEAKER_00: subject of or the topic of campaign ads.
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SPEAKER_00: And it'll be the same thing with the discharge petition.
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SPEAKER_00: Like Bresnahan won't get a bad headline, but he will get ads about it.
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SPEAKER_01: Yes, he will.
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SPEAKER_01: But the headlines themselves matter, right?
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SPEAKER_00: Yes, I agree.
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SPEAKER_01: So because it... How do you put it?
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SPEAKER_01: Like...
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SPEAKER_01: Ads always matter.
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SPEAKER_01: You always want to run ads.
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SPEAKER_01: But ads that reinforce things that were already in the news are worse.
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It would be good for Paige Cognetti if she could get a drumbeat
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of stories about
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SPEAKER_01: how Brestahan is not releasing the Epstein files.
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SPEAKER_01: But it's hard, right?
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SPEAKER_01: Because as long as the discharge petition doesn't pass,
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SPEAKER_01: you can just kind of duck it and be neither here nor there.
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Anyway,
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all this stuff is like a little,
12:19
as you say,
12:19
like,
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it's arbitrary.
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SPEAKER_01: Like,
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SPEAKER_01: there was a time where you could,
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SPEAKER_01: and like in 2003,
12:26
SPEAKER_01: right when I started,
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SPEAKER_01: there was a Medicare bill,
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SPEAKER_01: the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003.
12:34
SPEAKER_01: And...
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There were a number of Senate Democrats who didn't want to vote
12:42
for it for various
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SPEAKER_01: reasons,
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SPEAKER_01: but also didn't want to block it.
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And so they voted for cloture on the conference committee
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report,
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and it then passed,
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right?
12:55
SPEAKER_01: And,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: like,
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SPEAKER_01: it was covered as like a narrow Senate,
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SPEAKER_01: narrow,
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SPEAKER_01: highly partisan Senate vote.
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SPEAKER_01: Like,
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SPEAKER_01: which it was,
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but it's just like it wasn't covered as like actually 13 Senate
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Democrats voted for
13:11
cloture on this because they wanted to shuffle it off the table
13:14
and just like move
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SPEAKER_01: on to other things.
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SPEAKER_01: But that switched, you know, by 2009 or really even 2007.
13:21
SPEAKER_01: You couldn't pull that kind of stuff.
13:25
Anyway,
13:25
I mean,
13:26
this was a little bit on my mind because like part of shutdown
13:30
politics is
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SPEAKER_01: slash media,
13:33
is that the press takes a very literal view of the
13:39
chronological mechanics of what
13:42
SPEAKER_01: goes on.
13:43
SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, you have...
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SPEAKER_01: I'm using Jake Sherman here as like metonymy for the congressional,
13:51
SPEAKER_01: for like the congressional press corps generally,
13:54
SPEAKER_01: which again,
13:55
SPEAKER_01: to be clear,
13:55
SPEAKER_01: this is like a small,
13:57
everybody who covers politics writes about what happens in
14:00
Congress because that's
14:02
SPEAKER_01: an important part of politics.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: But like there's a kind of small issue
14:07
SPEAKER_01: fairly insular community of people who like do the Congress beat day in,
14:12
SPEAKER_01: day out,
14:13
are widely read on the Hill and then are widely read by
14:16
colleagues who sometimes
14:17
SPEAKER_01: need to mention what's on the Hill.
14:19
SPEAKER_01: And like Axios,
14:22
SPEAKER_01: Politico,
14:23
SPEAKER_01: formerly The Hill,
14:24
SPEAKER_01: Roll Call,
14:25
SPEAKER_01: and now Punchbowl,
14:27
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:27
SPEAKER_01: are very sort of big,
14:29
SPEAKER_01: important,
14:30
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:30
SPEAKER_01: influential voices in this.
14:33
SPEAKER_01: And
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SPEAKER_01: To those kind of people,
14:37
the fact that House Republicans passed this CR on a narrow
14:42
party line vote,
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SPEAKER_01: and it did pass,
14:46
SPEAKER_01: so to speak,
14:47
SPEAKER_01: makes all the difference.
14:48
Because the House having passed it means that now the Senate
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could just pass it.
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SPEAKER_01: and the Senate isn't passing it because Democrats won't vote for cloture,
15:00
SPEAKER_01: versus if the Freedom Caucus,
15:02
SPEAKER_01: the Freedom Caucus used to object to CRs.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: They just wouldn't vote for bills that didn't include funding cuts.
15:11
SPEAKER_01: And if that was still the case today,
15:13
if the Freedom Caucus was preventing Republicans from passing a
15:17
CR on a party-line
15:18
SPEAKER_01: vote,
15:20
SPEAKER_01: then the coverage from that quarter would be totally different.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: They'd be saying,
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SPEAKER_01: Republicans don't have the votes for their own CR.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: They've got to come hat in hand to Chuck Schumer, right?
15:33
Now,
15:34
they need to come hat in hand to Chuck Schumer to pass in the
15:36
Senate anyway.
15:37
So it doesn't like mathematically make a difference that they
15:41
passed it in the House.
15:43
But it's like seen like metaphysically as like radically
15:47
altering the situation
15:49
from one in which like Republicans are behind the eight ball to
15:52
one in which
15:53
SPEAKER_01: Democrats are behind the eight ball.
15:55
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't – to me,
15:57
it's not even like a partisan thing because I think this has
15:59
often been actually
16:01
SPEAKER_01: wielded against Republicans in an unfair way.
16:04
Like Freedom Caucus troublemakers being troublemakers was seen
16:07
as like completely –
16:09
SPEAKER_01: transforming the universe,
16:11
SPEAKER_01: but they're now not being troublemakers,
16:13
SPEAKER_01: which has led...
16:15
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: I think Jake specifically,
16:17
SPEAKER_01: but others in the congressional press corps to be like,
16:20
SPEAKER_01: this...
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SPEAKER_01: Trump is right.
16:22
SPEAKER_01: Like, this is the Schumer shutdown.
16:23
SPEAKER_01: He shut it down.
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SPEAKER_01: When it's like... I mean...
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SPEAKER_01: It is and it isn't.
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SPEAKER_01: It's just like the math is you need 60 votes in the Senate.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: Republicans have changed the filibuster rule all the time and they could,
16:36
SPEAKER_01: but like they don't want it.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: I feel like you using Jake as a metonym is in some informal way,
16:43
crowning him as like dean of the congressional newsletter
16:46
writing press corps
16:48
SPEAKER_00: agenda setting when the morning crew.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:52
SPEAKER_00: And like, honestly, like he earned it.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: He hustles.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: Right.
16:56
SPEAKER_01: I mean, if I want to know what's up in Congress, that is who I read.
17:01
SPEAKER_01: I don't always agree with the analysis, but he earned it.
17:05
SPEAKER_00: Can I offer a limited defense of the practice?
17:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
17:09
SPEAKER_00: Because I do think, as you say, it's very literal minded, but I do think
17:15
that it's fairly defensible,
17:17
at least as applied to shutdowns in the post-McConnell era,
17:21
right?
17:21
SPEAKER_00: Because,
17:22
SPEAKER_00: you know,
17:23
SPEAKER_00: to take this back a second,
17:25
SPEAKER_00: it used to be that the filibuster was considered the exception.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: McConnell turned it into the rule,
17:29
SPEAKER_00: and shortly after he turned it into the rule,
17:31
SPEAKER_00: institutional memory faded,
17:33
and suddenly you were getting write-ups in the New York Times
17:38
about the failure of
17:39
SPEAKER_00: this Democratic bill or the other,
17:41
SPEAKER_00: that,
17:41
SPEAKER_00: like,
17:41
SPEAKER_00: Congress...
17:43
SPEAKER_00: Fails to pass X.
17:44
And we would get upset by that because we knew the truth was
17:48
that Republicans
17:48
SPEAKER_00: filibustered X.
17:50
SPEAKER_00: And we wanted accountability to point in the direction of the votes.
17:53
SPEAKER_00: And I still want that, right?
17:54
Like I still think that that's the correct way to understand
17:58
why things do or don't
17:59
SPEAKER_00: pass under the rules and norms as they exist today.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: So with that backdrop,
18:05
SPEAKER_00: right,
18:06
if you were to drop a alien mathematician or a political
18:11
scientist or ethicist
18:13
SPEAKER_00: blind into the U.S.
18:15
appropriations process in 2025 and tell them,
18:19
you know,
18:19
the reality is that
18:21
Politics here are polarized and that means the government shuts
18:25
down every few years.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: I think that,
18:27
SPEAKER_00: you know,
18:28
SPEAKER_00: a reasonably fair minded analyst like that would come up with something
18:34
SPEAKER_00: approximating the Jake Sherman rules.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:37
And it's like if there's an impasse over funding the
18:41
government,
18:42
then the neutral next move.
18:45
is that the parties should just agree to extend the existing
18:48
budget for as long as
18:49
SPEAKER_00: it takes to resolve differences.
18:51
SPEAKER_00: Nobody's ox gets gored.
18:53
That's like what you would expect if you wanted continuity of
18:57
government without
18:58
SPEAKER_00: anyone having to eat shit.
19:01
SPEAKER_00: And if at that point one party or another says,
19:04
SPEAKER_00: no,
19:04
SPEAKER_00: we're not signing up on that,
19:06
whether it's the Freedom Caucus or the decisive votes on the
19:11
filibuster in the
19:12
SPEAKER_00: Senate,
19:13
SPEAKER_00: like we're not playing ball unless we get something partisan out of it,
19:17
SPEAKER_00: then –
19:18
Our,
19:19
you know,
19:19
our alien observers would say that party is to blame for the
19:21
shutdown.
19:22
SPEAKER_00: And those are more or less,
19:23
SPEAKER_00: I think,
19:24
SPEAKER_00: the rules of Punchbowl or Axios or Politico when trying to meet,
19:30
SPEAKER_00: trying to assess for readers who is,
19:34
SPEAKER_00: whose actions most approximately are triggering the shutdown.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: And so you have these reporters who would never like, who'd be very, uh,
19:44
They would tread very lightly around questions of partisan
19:47
blame or what's right or
19:49
SPEAKER_00: what's wrong,
19:50
SPEAKER_00: just outwardly saying Democrats caused the shutdown.
19:52
And it's because they were the most proximate obstructive force
19:58
to passing the
19:59
SPEAKER_00: fair-minded clean CR,
20:01
and it's because they have this other thing that they want the
20:03
Republicans don't.
20:05
SPEAKER_00: And I, like, I take your point that, like, there's more to the argument.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: You could clap back at that with...
20:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, Republicans could just abolish the filibuster.
20:19
SPEAKER_00: Well, why have they never had to do that?
20:21
SPEAKER_00: Well,
20:21
because they've never been unilaterally reneging on these
20:25
budget agreements,
20:26
SPEAKER_00: but now they're doing that,
20:26
SPEAKER_00: so we can't vote for it.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: It's not the end of the line for that analysis,
20:30
but for every past shutdown fight and up to this point in this
20:35
shutdown fight,
20:36
SPEAKER_00: I do think there's an internal logic to meting out blame in this way.
20:40
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm not even saying there isn't.
20:42
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I just think it's important to—
20:45
SPEAKER_01: Make it explicit to people.
20:47
SPEAKER_01: Because I do think that part of this whole dynamic,
20:51
SPEAKER_01: like amongst Democrats,
20:53
SPEAKER_01: right,
20:53
SPEAKER_01: is just that way back in March,
20:56
like expectations for the appropriations process got really
21:01
high at one point.
21:03
And part of the reason expectations got high was that House
21:08
Democrats believed that
21:11
SPEAKER_01: right-wing rebels would sink down.
21:16
SPEAKER_01: a Republican appropriations bill, right?
21:17
Like that was the baseline scenario that they had was that in
21:22
the House,
21:24
right?
21:24
SPEAKER_01: Mike Johnson,
21:25
because remember like how difficult it was to elect Mike
21:28
Johnson as Speaker in the
21:30
SPEAKER_01: first place?
21:32
SPEAKER_00: Well, it was Kevin McCarthy.
21:34
I mean,
21:34
the process by which Mike Johnson became Speaker was very
21:38
fraught.
21:39
SPEAKER_01: The House majority that was elected in 2024 was tiny.
21:43
You know,
21:44
and like does,
21:45
unlike in the Senate,
21:46
includes like plenty of vulnerable people.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: And so there was this thought,
21:50
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:51
SPEAKER_01: as Doge was like at its peak,
21:55
SPEAKER_01: there was a big thought that,
21:56
SPEAKER_01: look,
21:57
SPEAKER_01: Republicans are going to do their normal thing.
22:00
SPEAKER_01: And they're going to try to write a budget,
22:03
SPEAKER_01: an appropriations bill that their frontliners are comfortable with.
22:08
SPEAKER_01: And the Freedom Caucus won't go for it.
22:11
SPEAKER_01: So they will be deadlocked.
22:13
SPEAKER_01: So what will eventually happen is that the Senate,
22:16
SPEAKER_01: which is more bipartisan and where Susan Collins leads the Appropriations
22:19
SPEAKER_01: Committee,
22:20
SPEAKER_01: will write a set of bipartisan appropriations.
22:23
And then the House will have to swallow those appropriations
22:26
because they can't
22:27
SPEAKER_01: pass anything on party line vote.
22:30
SPEAKER_01: That wound up not coming together.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
22:33
SPEAKER_01: But there was this big hope that without a shutdown,
22:37
Democrats were going to be able to get a lot of what they
22:39
wanted through the
22:40
SPEAKER_01: appropriations process.
22:43
And then when that didn't work out because the Freedom Caucus
22:47
played ball,
22:50
SPEAKER_01: things started to get tougher for Democrats, for Democratic leaders.
22:53
SPEAKER_01: But then also,
22:55
SPEAKER_01: one of the reasons the Freedom Caucus played ball,
22:58
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
22:58
one of the reasons was that Trump just kind of like cucked them
23:00
a little bit.
23:01
But one of the reasons is that Russ Vogt keeps telling them,
23:07
like,
23:07
be cool,
23:08
guys.
23:09
SPEAKER_01: Like, if we keep passing appropriations that you don't like,
23:14
SPEAKER_01: rescissions and impoundment will generate budget cuts.
23:17
SPEAKER_01: But if you demand budget cuts in the appropriations,
23:22
the process is going to become bipartisan and we're going to
23:24
have to swallow
23:26
SPEAKER_01: controls on impoundment and rescission.
23:28
SPEAKER_01: Right.
23:29
SPEAKER_01: So like that's this like inner Congress game that has sort of
23:35
SPEAKER_01: change the situation.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's changed.
23:37
SPEAKER_00: It's definitely changed the politics in a way where I don't think,
23:39
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:40
Russ vote or these freedom caucus members who agree to play
23:43
ball or Jake Sherman or
23:45
SPEAKER_00: this whole set of like congressional beat reporters,
23:49
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:49
SPEAKER_00: they had the,
23:50
SPEAKER_00: they had shared understanding of the rules of the,
23:56
SPEAKER_00: of the appropriations process itself,
23:58
SPEAKER_00: but also of,
23:58
SPEAKER_00: of how the discourse then emanates from,
24:02
SPEAKER_00: from the dynamics on the Hill.
24:03
SPEAKER_00: What I think that they are bedeviled by now is that they,
24:08
SPEAKER_00: and to some extent me,
24:09
SPEAKER_00: but not,
24:10
SPEAKER_00: not entirely took the logical leap that the,
24:13
SPEAKER_00: the,
24:14
The discourse around who's to blame for the shutdown that
24:17
percolates in Washington
24:18
carries over into public opinion and that whoever whoever is
24:22
responsible for taking
24:24
the hostage that causes the government shutdown is like will be
24:29
blamed by the
24:30
SPEAKER_00: public for the shutdown.
24:32
And so the Freedom Caucus members thought that this was the
24:35
best way to jam
24:35
SPEAKER_00: Democrats vote,
24:37
SPEAKER_00: thought this was the best way to jam Democrats.
24:39
SPEAKER_00: Jake Sherman thought.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: Democrats are going to be jammed by this and have decayed.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: The public's going to blame them.
24:45
And what we're actually seeing in the first week,
24:49
at least,
24:49
of public opinion polling...
24:51
SPEAKER_00: Is that despite,
24:53
SPEAKER_00: you know,
24:53
being the hostage takers and being the proximate force for
24:56
shutting down the
24:56
SPEAKER_00: government,
24:57
SPEAKER_00: the public's with Democrats in this one.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: Like not overwhelmingly, but more so than they are with Republicans.
25:03
SPEAKER_01: Right.
25:03
SPEAKER_01: But just to press my argument,
25:06
SPEAKER_01: though,
25:06
SPEAKER_01: like I want congressional reporters to – since they believe –
25:14
SPEAKER_01: that the Freedom Caucus playing ball is very important to like their own
25:20
SPEAKER_01: description of the situation.
25:22
SPEAKER_01: It is, if that is going to be your framing of it, right?
25:26
That like these like 20 guys saying yes to a CR rather than no
25:33
alters the situation.
25:35
You have to incorporate your own understanding of why they are
25:40
playing ball.
25:43
And they are playing ball because they have been promised by
25:48
Russ Vogt that Trump
25:50
SPEAKER_01: will double-cross a deal.
25:53
And I think that this will become significant down the road for
25:59
reasons that we've
26:00
SPEAKER_01: discussed in the past.
26:03
SPEAKER_01: That you're going to end up with a question of,
26:07
Trump seems more open to making concessions on the healthcare
26:13
tax credits than to
26:15
SPEAKER_01: making concessions on the rescissions point.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Or any presidential – any executive power like demand the Democrats.
26:24
SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
26:24
But I mean the rescission's point is I think particularly
26:27
important because as
26:28
SPEAKER_01: you've underscored of its direct germaneness,
26:31
SPEAKER_01: right?
26:32
And I just like – I want everybody to remember that the
26:36
rescissions aren't just
26:37
SPEAKER_01: like germane to appropriations.
26:39
They're specifically germane to the question of why the Freedom
26:42
Caucus is voting
26:43
SPEAKER_01: for these bills.
26:44
SPEAKER_00: And why Democrats in the Senate aren't.
26:46
SPEAKER_00: Even if they say it's healthcare, it's really this other stuff.
26:48
SPEAKER_01: Well, really, yes, really, no.
26:50
SPEAKER_01: But like one way out of this conceivably,
26:54
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
26:55
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's,
26:56
SPEAKER_01: this is clearly not a way that Trump wants to take,
26:59
SPEAKER_01: right?
26:59
But just a verbal promise to not do rescissions and impoundment
27:07
would be interesting.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
27:10
SPEAKER_01: Like if Trump wants to say, particularly for the purposes of his CR,
27:14
SPEAKER_01: Like a short term.
27:16
SPEAKER_01: If Trump wants to say,
27:18
SPEAKER_01: look,
27:19
SPEAKER_01: like,
27:20
let's get the government reopened for seven weeks is what was
27:25
on the table before.
27:26
SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's two months, whatever it is, right?
27:28
SPEAKER_01: Something that Trump wants to characterize as short term.
27:31
SPEAKER_01: And he wants to say, look, I'm not going to give you anything.
27:35
for the CR,
27:36
but the point of the CR is to negotiate something on this
27:40
healthcare stuff.
27:42
SPEAKER_01: And then some people are going to say, but what about rescissions?
27:44
SPEAKER_01: What about empowerment?
27:46
And Trump,
27:46
I think,
27:46
could reasonably say there,
27:49
look,
27:49
I promise I won't do any of that stuff.
27:52
SPEAKER_01: And then it's like, Trump's a huge liar.
27:54
SPEAKER_01: He obviously might double cross.
27:57
But if he promises to not do rescissions for the duration of a
28:02
CR and then does
28:04
SPEAKER_01: them,
28:05
then like everybody I think has to concede that like now
28:08
Democrats have a problem.
28:09
SPEAKER_01: Like they can't keep voting for stuff where Trump is breaking his word.
28:13
SPEAKER_01: Because again,
28:14
just again to bring it back that like Trump has gotten Freedom
28:18
Caucus votes based
28:20
SPEAKER_01: on verbal promises to do rescissions.
28:24
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
28:24
SPEAKER_01: And like that's a, you know,
28:28
People make agreements all the time that have verbal side
28:34
clauses that aren't in
28:35
SPEAKER_01: the legislative text or in a legal contract.
28:38
SPEAKER_01: We've all made deals with people that have informal aspects.
28:41
Part of how the Inflation Reduction Act got done was that Joe
28:47
Biden and Chuck
28:48
Schumer made a verbal commitment to Joe Manchin to pursue a
28:54
permitting reform that
28:55
SPEAKER_01: couldn't be done in a reconciliation vehicle.
28:59
And then like the question of how much they follow through on
29:03
that then becomes
29:04
SPEAKER_01: something that people argue about.
29:05
SPEAKER_01: But like this is part of the process.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: OK,
29:08
here's a more on all fours example is that at the very
29:11
beginning of that Congress
29:12
SPEAKER_00: that ultimately yielded the Inflation Reduction Act,
29:16
Mitch McConnell was like refusing to hand over control of the
29:19
committees at the
29:20
SPEAKER_00: very outset to Democrats,
29:21
SPEAKER_00: even though they had won a majority.
29:24
SPEAKER_00: which was very typical hardball for him.
29:28
But the pretext for doing it was that I need to make sure that
29:36
Democrats are going
29:37
SPEAKER_00: to abolish the filibuster.
29:39
And so what he got was a verbal promise from Kyrsten Sinema and
29:43
Joe Manchin that
29:43
SPEAKER_00: under no circumstances would they –
29:46
SPEAKER_00: Invoke the nuclear option and get rid of the filibuster.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: And they did it.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: And the committees turned over and those two kept to their word.
29:54
And the filibuster remains intact today on the basis of what
29:57
was a verbal promise
29:58
SPEAKER_00: made fucking four years ago.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: I,
30:03
SPEAKER_00: you know,
30:03
my I there are indications that things are going like something
30:08
like in that
30:08
SPEAKER_00: direction.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: You saw Mark Short,
30:11
SPEAKER_00: who's,
30:12
SPEAKER_00: I think,
30:14
SPEAKER_00: actually on the outs with Trump,
30:15
SPEAKER_00: but he's a very right-wing Republican operator.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: And then Marjorie Taylor Greene,
30:20
SPEAKER_00: who's very tight with Trump,
30:23
are both basically intimating that Republicans should concede
30:30
the healthcare
30:31
SPEAKER_00: subsidies to Democrats,
30:33
SPEAKER_00: get the government reopened that way.
30:35
And my concern is going to shift if that,
30:39
I mean,
30:40
it's sort of what I was worried about.
30:41
SPEAKER_01: Mark Short is very on the outs with the Trump White House.
30:44
He's the- Because he testified with- He's the head of Mike
30:47
Pence's little pack.
30:50
But I don't want people to walk away with the idea that Mark
30:53
Short is ideologically-
30:55
SPEAKER_00: on a different page from like right wing Republicans in the house.
31:00
Well,
31:00
I would say he,
31:01
he,
31:01
he has a good relationship with lots of members of Congress.
31:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: And,
31:06
SPEAKER_00: and he's not a squish,
31:07
SPEAKER_00: you know,
31:07
SPEAKER_00: he's not,
31:08
SPEAKER_00: he's not like,
31:09
SPEAKER_00: he doesn't have frontline member mindset about anything.
31:11
SPEAKER_00: And,
31:13
SPEAKER_00: you know,
31:13
this is like I felt like the the one of the pitfalls of having
31:19
a proxy fight over
31:20
health care instead of the direct fight over the
31:22
authoritarianism is that if they
31:24
SPEAKER_00: do that,
31:25
SPEAKER_00: let's say they do it exactly the way you describe is like,
31:28
SPEAKER_00: OK,
31:28
SPEAKER_00: we'll do a seven week CR.
31:30
We'll use those seven weeks to hash out the the ACA subsidy
31:34
extension issue.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: But then we're going to have to do another vote for a full year budget.
31:40
is will the Democratic leadership say,
31:43
look,
31:43
the base wanted us to pick a fight.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: We did.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: We're done.
31:47
SPEAKER_00: And we won.
31:48
And so now we can just pretend like nothing else is happening
31:51
in the country and
31:52
SPEAKER_00: pass a full year CR or a subset of individual appropriations bills.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
32:02
SPEAKER_00: I'm concerned that that's the choice that they would make,
32:06
SPEAKER_00: which I think is like,
32:10
it's going to become untenable for them again if like the
32:14
situation on the ground
32:15
SPEAKER_00: in places like Portland and Chicago doesn't cool off quickly.
32:19
SPEAKER_01: But my,
32:20
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
32:20
SPEAKER_01: this,
32:21
my concern about this whole shutdown strategy from the get-go
32:26
has always been this,
32:29
SPEAKER_01: though,
32:30
SPEAKER_01: that like,
32:33
I think that it has always been the case that Brian Boitler and
32:38
Josh Marshall and
32:41
Jon Favreau and Crooked Media and Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow
32:46
and MSNBC are like
32:48
going to take the view that like Donald Trump is really bad and
32:53
that what Trump is
32:55
SPEAKER_01: doing is really bad and the Democrats need to fight it and defeat him.
33:01
And that there is nothing that is winnable in a shutdown
33:09
argument that will lead
33:13
SPEAKER_01: anyone who has a resistance-minded audience...
33:19
SPEAKER_01: to write a piece that's like,
33:22
Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries really hit the ball out of
33:25
the park on this one
33:27
SPEAKER_01: and brought Trump to heel and now the MAGA threat is gone.
33:32
Not because you guys are gonna be wrong that the MAGA threat
33:36
isn't gone or that
33:37
SPEAKER_01: Trump is really bad,
33:39
SPEAKER_01: but just because it's actually not achievable through this mechanism.
33:46
SPEAKER_01: Now, what is achievable?
33:48
SPEAKER_01: potentially,
33:49
is to maneuver into a situation where the government is
33:52
reopened by nuking the
33:54
SPEAKER_01: filibuster,
33:55
SPEAKER_01: which allows Democrats to preserve their non-complicity.
34:00
SPEAKER_01: Like I saw,
34:00
SPEAKER_01: I saw Favreau doing,
34:02
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:02
SPEAKER_01: he was like linking to some,
34:04
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:04
SPEAKER_01: ICE outrage and it was Portland or Chicago or whatever.
34:07
SPEAKER_01: And it was like,
34:08
I would simply not fund a federal government that's trampling
34:11
on Americans' rights,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: blah.
34:13
SPEAKER_01: And like, I also, to be clear, like, I agree with that.
34:16
SPEAKER_01: I also would not fund that.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: If I was a safe seat member, right?
34:22
SPEAKER_01: Like,
34:22
SPEAKER_01: I would say,
34:23
SPEAKER_01: I think that Donald Trump is a clear and present danger to the American
34:31
SPEAKER_01: constitutional order.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: And I will not vote for appropriations for his goon squad,
34:37
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:37
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:38
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:38
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:38
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:38
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:39
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:39
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:39
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:39
SPEAKER_01: blah,
34:39
SPEAKER_01: blah.
34:40
SPEAKER_01: And people would fucking love me.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
34:42
There would be all these tweets about like,
34:44
yeah,
34:45
Iglesias,
34:46
like he's really got it.
34:47
SPEAKER_01: Right.
34:48
SPEAKER_01: And like I'd be a safe seat senator.
34:50
SPEAKER_01: So who fucking cares?
34:52
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
34:52
SPEAKER_01: And like the shutdown could go on.
34:54
SPEAKER_01: And I'd say to people like fucking nuke the filibuster if you want to.
34:57
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
34:58
SPEAKER_01: Like it's no it's no skin off my back.
35:00
SPEAKER_01: And like it genuinely isn't like I could just say what I think.
35:03
SPEAKER_01: And I agree with all you guys.
35:04
SPEAKER_01: That is also what I think.
35:06
SPEAKER_01: But I don't think that that is a tenable forever posture,
35:11
SPEAKER_01: not just for frontline members who are under various pressures,
35:13
SPEAKER_01: but like at a certain point,
35:16
like federal employees in Maryland and Virginia are going to
35:19
start being like,
35:19
SPEAKER_01: hey,
35:20
SPEAKER_01: guys,
35:20
SPEAKER_01: like I'd like to get paid.
35:22
SPEAKER_01: I'd like to have a job like my my family is starving.
35:27
SPEAKER_01: I can't make payments on my mortgage.
35:28
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
35:29
And so there's a big game going on,
35:31
I think,
35:32
not just in Congress,
35:34
but like in the media.
35:36
To just like be the guy who doesn't cave because it's
35:40
predictable that like somebody will cave.
35:44
SPEAKER_01: And I think that if Democrats get their health care win,
35:47
SPEAKER_01: you know,
35:48
SPEAKER_01: then it's like there's really a lot of pressure to be like,
35:52
SPEAKER_01: let's cave now when we can spin it as having won something.
35:56
rather than inevitably caving three months down the road and
35:59
getting nothing.
36:01
SPEAKER_01: And I just like,
36:01
SPEAKER_01: I just want people to,
36:03
SPEAKER_01: to know that,
36:04
SPEAKER_01: that like,
36:04
SPEAKER_01: that is the,
36:05
SPEAKER_01: that is the situation.
36:06
Like we're not going to have a government shutdown that
36:09
persists through the midterms.
36:11
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
36:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, probably not.
36:13
But I will,
36:14
I will like address this challenge on the other side of the
36:16
paywall.
36:17
SPEAKER_00: If people want to hear me pick apart what Matt just said,
36:21
SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.