Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 1/29/26: Imminent Iran Attack, Rand Paul Vs Rubio On Venezuela, Dollar Collapse, Trump Accounts For Babies
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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- 0:29Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have an
- 0:32Speaker 1: amazing show for everybuddy today where we have Crystal.
- 0:35Speaker 2: Indeed we do so a lot of military assets. Moving
- 0:39Speaker 2: back to the golf region, Jeffrey Sachs is saying that
- 0:42Speaker 2: new war with Iran is imminent, so we will take
- 0:46Speaker 2: a look at that. At the same time, Marco Rubio
- 0:48Speaker 2: was on the hill testifying and taking a lot of
- 0:49Speaker 2: heat from Rand Paul among others. You'll definitely want to
- 0:52Speaker 2: see that. We've got a bunch of economic news, in particular,
- 0:55Speaker 2: we're going to start with the dire warning from Peterschiff,
- 0:57Speaker 2: who called the two thousand and eight crash correctly, who
- 1:00Speaker 2: is once again sounding the alarm bells. Trump also out
- 1:04Speaker 2: with his new Trump accounts for all the babies down there.
- 1:07Speaker 2: Pretty interesting play. There's a lot to say about that one.
- 1:10Speaker 1: We'll discuss it. I'll discuss yes, as a personal finance
- 1:13Speaker 1: nerd and as someone whose child will benefit from the
- 1:16Speaker 1: Trump account. I will break down Trump. I will Trump
- 1:18Speaker 1: be a breakdown the Trump account forever.
- 1:21Speaker 2: We've got new video of Alex Party that was taken
- 1:25Speaker 2: eleven days before he was ultimately murdered. That has gotten
- 1:29Speaker 2: a lot of attention. We also have a bunch of
- 1:31Speaker 2: new developments there. The agents involved have apparently been put
- 1:34Speaker 2: on leave. We've got some updates and investigation. We've also
- 1:37Speaker 2: got another wild one. The FBI raided the Fulton County
- 1:43Speaker 2: election headquarters in the context of Trump's wild twenty twenty
- 1:48Speaker 2: stop the Steel delusions. Tulci Gabbert, who is the Director
- 1:52Speaker 2: of National Intelligence, was there lurking at the scene. What
- 1:57Speaker 2: the hell is going on? Nobody should feel comfortable with
- 2:00Speaker 2: whatever is unfolding there. And we've also got polling in
- 2:03Speaker 2: the show poor whites actually turning on Trump. It's kind
- 2:07Speaker 2: of an undernoticed trend, but that's been a core part
- 2:09Speaker 2: of his base that seems to be very unhappy with
- 2:12Speaker 2: his economic stewardship among other things. That it makes perfect sense,
- 2:15Speaker 2: just hasn't gotten a lot of attention.
- 2:17Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, all right. So before we get to that,
- 2:19Speaker 1: we have a couple of housekeeping things. So because technically
- 2:23Speaker 1: the way that we do it for the AMA, we're
- 2:25Speaker 1: not able to do it this week. However, remember on
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- 2:33Speaker 1: questions there. That will count as the AMA for this week.
- 2:35Speaker 1: Remember it's available to all premium subscribers. And then second,
- 2:38Speaker 1: Spotify is close to being fixed. We have narrowed down
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- 3:06Speaker 1: to support the show. But let's go ahead and start
- 3:09Speaker 1: with Iran. So a lot of moving parts. Whenever it
- 3:12Speaker 1: comes to Iran, another attack appears imminent, and that is
- 3:16Speaker 1: definitely the analysis of Professor Jeffrey Sachs we always rely on.
- 3:20Speaker 3: Here.
- 3:20Speaker 1: He is from an interview Jess yesterday on the Glenn
- 3:23Speaker 1: Decent Show. Let's take a listen.
- 3:25Speaker 4: I think it's clear well for Israel, this has been
- 3:29Speaker 4: a thirty year effort to overthrow the Iranian government. The
- 3:33Speaker 4: United States basically does what Israel says, and so Israel
- 3:39Speaker 4: has been pulling the United States into war with Iran
- 3:44Speaker 4: and attempting to do that endlessly. It did that last summer.
- 3:50Speaker 1: The goal was.
- 3:52Speaker 4: To create regime change, to have an overthrow. That didn't work.
- 3:57Speaker 4: The US then has been using economic instruments what our
- 4:03Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Scott Besnt called economic state craft, but he
- 4:08Speaker 4: laid out the deliberate measures by the United States to
- 4:14Speaker 4: destroy the Iranian economy. The idea, again was regime change.
- 4:20Speaker 4: That didn't work, and so now we have a carrier
- 4:24Speaker 4: strike group on its way to attack Iran. So an
- 4:29Speaker 4: attack is imminent. I think the goal here has never
- 4:33Speaker 4: been negotiation. Whenever there has been negotiation, Israel has jumped
- 4:39Speaker 4: up and down saying don't negotiate. Of course, a nuclear
- 4:45Speaker 4: agreement was reached with Iran a decade ago, the Joint
- 4:51Speaker 4: Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA. It was actually ratified by
- 4:57Speaker 4: the UN Security Council Resolution twenty two thirty one on
- 5:03Speaker 4: the twentieth of July twenty fifteen. Then Trump ripped it
- 5:07Speaker 4: up in his first term. So there's never been any
- 5:13Speaker 4: desire by Israel to have a negotiated settlement. And since
- 5:19Speaker 4: the United States does what Israel tells it to do,
- 5:23Speaker 4: there has never been a readiness of the United States
- 5:27Speaker 4: to have real negotiations.
- 5:29Speaker 1: So I think this is very important for his analysis.
- 5:32Speaker 1: In the overall context, and as we begin to see
- 5:35Speaker 1: things moving behind the scenes, a lot of this is
- 5:38Speaker 1: backed up. Let's put the next one, please mac up
- 5:40Speaker 1: on the screen. Truth social that kind of came not
- 5:44Speaker 1: out of nowhere, per se, if you've been paying attention.
- 5:46Speaker 1: But of course it's been a lot else going on
- 5:48Speaker 1: in the news. Donald Trump, A massive armada is heading
- 5:51Speaker 1: to Iran. It is moving quickly with great power, enthusiasm
- 5:54Speaker 1: and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the
- 5:56Speaker 1: great aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, that sent to Venezuela like
- 5:59Speaker 1: within as it is ready, willing and able to rapidly
- 6:02Speaker 1: fulfill its mission with speed and violence if necessary. Hopefully
- 6:05Speaker 1: Iran will quickly come to the table and negotiate a
- 6:08Speaker 1: fair and equitable deal no nuclear weapons, one that is
- 6:11Speaker 1: good for all parties. Time is running out. It is
- 6:15Speaker 1: truly of the essence. As I told Iran before, make
- 6:17Speaker 1: a deal. They didn't. There was Operation Midnight Hammer. The
- 6:20Speaker 1: next attack will be far worse. Don't make that happen again.
- 6:24Speaker 1: I really think everyone should sit with this for a second,
- 6:27Speaker 1: because the justification of Midnight Hammer was that we would
- 6:31Speaker 1: wipe out all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Thus no deal.
- 6:35Speaker 1: We've eliminated the threat, and yet here we are some
- 6:38Speaker 1: six months later, and now the criticism is, oh, well,
- 6:41Speaker 1: we have to strike Iran because they won't make a
- 6:43Speaker 1: deal on nuclear weapons. But wait, you told us that
- 6:46Speaker 1: you had eliminated their nuclear capacity, so why does their
- 6:49Speaker 1: need to be some deal. It's all fake. What it
- 6:51Speaker 1: traces back to is Israel actually moved the goalposts and
- 6:55Speaker 1: they said now it's no longer about nuclear facilities, nuclear fission,
- 6:59Speaker 1: or nuclear producuction. Now it's about long range or regional
- 7:02Speaker 1: range missiles. Now again keep that in mind, is that
- 7:05Speaker 1: regional range missiles are ones that are no threat to
- 7:08Speaker 1: the United States. They'll say that it's a threat to
- 7:09Speaker 1: our basis or any of that, irl, what is it
- 7:12Speaker 1: really a threat to to Israel? And then even then
- 7:14Speaker 1: they're saying that with the nuclear threat that could potentially
- 7:18Speaker 1: be attached. Again they said that it was all destroyed.
- 7:21Speaker 1: So either they lied, which I obviously always said that
- 7:23Speaker 1: they did on nuclear nuclear facilities and actually eradicating them,
- 7:27Speaker 1: or they told the truth and they're moving the goalposts.
- 7:30Speaker 1: And let's also not forget all of this was precipitated
- 7:33Speaker 1: with nothing to do with nukes. It's not like there
- 7:35Speaker 1: was some breakout period or any of that. Like again
- 7:38Speaker 1: they were falsely caming in the days up to Midnight Hammer.
- 7:41Speaker 1: This was all precipitated by protests in Iran, which again
- 7:45Speaker 1: by all accounts, even from so called democracy activists in
- 7:49Speaker 1: Iran are telling us that have been quelled by the regime,
- 7:52Speaker 1: and largely the regime remains solidly in power. So there
- 7:55Speaker 1: are pretexts upon pretext, just like with the Venezuela operation,
- 7:59Speaker 1: they said it was about drugs, and now it's about
- 8:01Speaker 1: law enforcement. It's all fake. This is regime change. This
- 8:04Speaker 1: is straight up and down regime change. And what's worse again,
- 8:08Speaker 1: this time there's no organized movement against it. And in fact,
- 8:11Speaker 1: you have multiple voices telling the president, including Lindsay Graham
- 8:15Speaker 1: and other influential ones, sir, the way to take eyes
- 8:19Speaker 1: off of all of the problems with Ice, with Epstein
- 8:21Speaker 1: and all that is to pursue the great democracy project
- 8:25Speaker 1: here in Iran. All signs currently point now. Look, listen,
- 8:29Speaker 1: he's done this before. You never know. But considering the
- 8:32Speaker 1: fact that we literally kidnapped Maduro, you know, in the
- 8:35Speaker 1: middle of the night and executed a massive regime change
- 8:38Speaker 1: operation with no congressional you know, authorization or anything, we
- 8:42Speaker 1: cannot rule any of this out. It could be bluster,
- 8:45Speaker 1: it also could not be And this is ten, i mean,
- 8:48Speaker 1: one hundred times more dangerous than what could happen with Venezuela. Yeah.
- 8:52Speaker 2: Well, and he clearly is framing it as another Venezuela
- 8:56Speaker 2: type operation, which tells you a lot about his psychology
- 8:59Speaker 2: and how he thinks of it. Your analysis there is
- 9:03Speaker 2: really worth underscoring because in the same way that Venezuela
- 9:07Speaker 2: was about the drugs, and then it wasn't about the drugs,
- 9:10Speaker 2: and then it was about machine guns, and then you know,
- 9:12Speaker 2: it's about the oil. We had the same thing here.
- 9:15Speaker 2: Originally it's supposed to be about the nukes. Then it's
- 9:17Speaker 2: not about the nukes, it's about oh my god, you're
- 9:19Speaker 2: being so mean to these protesters. Now it's back to
- 9:21Speaker 2: it's about the nukes. But also, by the way, we
- 9:24Speaker 2: are not going to you know, part of any negotiation
- 9:26Speaker 2: with you requires you to give up these ballistic missiles,
- 9:29Speaker 2: which no sovereign nation would agree, I mean, for the
- 9:32Speaker 2: Iranians would be insane to agree to that. So it
- 9:35Speaker 2: seems like a poison pill designed and we already know
- 9:39Speaker 2: the negotiations have broken down, designed to lead directly to war,
- 9:43Speaker 2: which is why Jeffrey Saxon others are analyzing that. You know,
- 9:46Speaker 2: this looks like that's where we're heading. Let's go and
- 9:49Speaker 2: put the CNN tear sheet up on the screen, because
- 9:51Speaker 2: we have some reporting from them that is worth breaking down.
- 9:54Speaker 2: So they say that President Trump is weighing a major
- 9:57Speaker 2: new strike gun run after preliminary discussions between Washington and
- 10:00Speaker 2: Tehran overlimiting the country's nuclear program and ballistic missile production
- 10:04Speaker 2: failed to make progress. It's a rapid refocusing of the
- 10:07Speaker 2: administration's publicly framed objectives for Iran. Comes only weeks after
- 10:11Speaker 2: Trump seriously considered military action he framed as potential aid
- 10:14Speaker 2: for nationwide protests in Iran. Protesters had faced violent crackdowns.
- 10:18Speaker 2: Trump on Wednesday posts on True Social demanding Iran come
- 10:22Speaker 2: to the table. Options he is now considering include US
- 10:26Speaker 2: military air strikes aimed at Iran's leaders and the security
- 10:30Speaker 2: officials believed to be responsible for the killings, as well
- 10:33Speaker 2: as strikes on Irani nuclear sites and government institutions. The
- 10:36Speaker 2: sources said Trump has not made a final decision on
- 10:39Speaker 2: how to proceed, but he believes his military options have
- 10:42Speaker 2: been expanded from earlier this month, now that a US
- 10:45Speaker 2: carrier strike group is in the region, and we've been.
- 10:48Speaker 5: Saying it for weeks.
- 10:50Speaker 2: Now that they're high on their own supply, they think
- 10:53Speaker 2: Venezuela was a great like political and military coup. He
- 10:58Speaker 2: loved the coverage it, he loved the spectacle of it,
- 11:02Speaker 2: and he's trying to figure out how to achieve the
- 11:05Speaker 2: same type of results in Iran.
- 11:07Speaker 1: Yes, Matt, can we please go ahead and put the
- 11:10Speaker 1: Barock Revid report that I sent earlier this morning. This
- 11:14Speaker 1: is very important and I can explain a little bit.
- 11:16Speaker 1: What's going on is that the Saudi and Israeli ministers
- 11:21Speaker 1: of defense or military officials visited Washington yesterday. Now the
- 11:26Speaker 1: reason why, reportedly behind the scenes, Israel's military chief is
- 11:31Speaker 1: only in Washington for one reason, to provide what a
- 11:34Speaker 1: target list to the United States military, also to coordinate
- 11:38Speaker 1: any potential response, because as we all saw, the reason
- 11:42Speaker 1: they're obsessed with Iranian ballistic missiles is because those ballistic
- 11:45Speaker 1: missiles massively penetrated you know, they're supposedly phenomenal missile shield
- 11:50Speaker 1: and actually caused huge amounts of damage. Don't forget that.
- 11:53Speaker 1: You know, it took the full force of the US
- 11:55Speaker 1: military twenty five percent of all of our interceptors in
- 11:58Speaker 1: the entire world in the so called Twelve Day war,
- 12:02Speaker 1: and there was still huge damage in downtown Tel Aviv
- 12:05Speaker 1: and all across of Israel, including to many of their
- 12:07Speaker 1: military targets. Now, the Saudis are very likely here in
- 12:11Speaker 1: Washington reading behind the scenes in that not only do
- 12:14Speaker 1: they want to prevent some sort of attack, but let's
- 12:17Speaker 1: say they think that it is inevitable. They in no
- 12:19Speaker 1: way want their airspace to be used as some sort
- 12:23Speaker 1: of staging ground or overfly so that they can deny
- 12:27Speaker 1: complicity in any attack on Iran, because that would potentially
- 12:32Speaker 1: invite ballistic missiles and other things being sent their way
- 12:35Speaker 1: if US military assets were to use their airspace, staging
- 12:38Speaker 1: ground or any of their own military intelligence. So you
- 12:41Speaker 1: can read behind the scenes here and see that things
- 12:44Speaker 1: and the clock is all starting to turn. Mac Please
- 12:47Speaker 1: put the next one that I sent up here on
- 12:49Speaker 1: the screen. This is also highly relevant, and so we've
- 12:52Speaker 1: talked about the Armada and about the Carrier Strike Group.
- 12:55Speaker 1: This is the Ocean account that I sent. Multiple aerial
- 12:59Speaker 1: ref fueling tanks have departed from peace Peace Air National
- 13:04Speaker 1: Guard Base in New Hampshire, preparing to cross the Atlantic
- 13:07Speaker 1: towing a flight of six Growler electronic warfare aircraft from
- 13:11Speaker 1: the Naval Air Station air Base in Spain, likely with
- 13:14Speaker 1: the final destination to the Middle East. So these aerial
- 13:16Speaker 1: refueling tankers were critical part of the Midnight Hammer mission.
- 13:21Speaker 1: It is in fact, you know, one of the logistical
- 13:23Speaker 1: things that you really need to mount a full scale
- 13:26Speaker 1: multiple strike operation against Iran. All of the pieces are
- 13:30Speaker 1: being moved in such a way that it could happen now. Again,
- 13:33Speaker 1: a lot of this that we saw also happened the
- 13:36Speaker 1: last time that Trump supposedly chickened out tacoed on Iran,
- 13:40Speaker 1: but only for the first time. But as I repeatedly warned,
- 13:43Speaker 1: the main reason, in my opinion, why nothing happened was
- 13:46Speaker 1: because that this carrier was in the South China Sea
- 13:49Speaker 1: and the rest of the naval assets were down in
- 13:50Speaker 1: the Caribbean. Just to show you that the United States
- 13:53Speaker 1: military is not invincible, is that if you actually do
- 13:56Speaker 1: want to do something, you have to pick and choose.
- 13:58Speaker 1: There are discrete choices cannot simply blanket across the glow
- 14:03Speaker 1: and all of our focus here an Iran is involving
- 14:07Speaker 1: tens of thousands of troops, something that our own Secretary
- 14:11Speaker 1: of State made very clear yesterday when testifying on Capitol Hill. Guys,
- 14:16Speaker 1: let's mac please play a three just to show you
- 14:20Speaker 1: the way that this is being described. Tens of thousands
- 14:22Speaker 1: of American troops in the region and poise for this.
- 14:25Speaker 6: So we have thirty to forty thousand American troops stationed
- 14:28Speaker 6: across eight or nine facilities in that region. All are
- 14:31Speaker 6: within the reach theoretically, not theoretically, in reality, all are
- 14:34Speaker 6: within the reach of an array of thousands of Iranian
- 14:39Speaker 6: one way UAVs and Iranian short term ballistic missiles short
- 14:43Speaker 6: short range of ballistic missiles that threaten our troop presence.
- 14:47Speaker 6: We have to have enough force and power in the region,
- 14:51Speaker 6: just on a baseline to defend against that possibility that
- 14:54Speaker 6: at some point, as a result of something the Iranian
- 14:57Speaker 6: regime decides to strike at our troop presence region. The
- 15:00Speaker 6: President always reserves the preemptive defensive option in essence, if
- 15:04Speaker 6: we have indications that in fact they're going to attack
- 15:06Speaker 6: our troops in the region, to defend our personnel in
- 15:09Speaker 6: the region, we also have security agreements, the Defense of
- 15:11Speaker 6: Israel Plan and others that require us to have a
- 15:14Speaker 6: forced posture in the region to defend against that. And
- 15:16Speaker 6: so I think it's wise and prudent to have a
- 15:19Speaker 6: forced posture within the region that could respond and potentially
- 15:22Speaker 6: not necessarily what's going to happen, but if necessary, preemptibly
- 15:26Speaker 6: prevent the attack against thousands of American servicemen and other
- 15:30Speaker 6: facilities in the region and our allies. I hope it
- 15:33Speaker 6: doesn't come to that, but that's I think what you're
- 15:35Speaker 6: seeing now is the ability to posture assets in the
- 15:38Speaker 6: region to defend against what could be an Iranian threat.
- 15:41Speaker 1: So I mean, as I said, they're going to say, oh,
- 15:43Speaker 1: it's a threat to us because we got all these
- 15:45Speaker 1: bases there. Well, why do we have all these bases there?
- 15:47Speaker 1: Because of that?
- 15:47Speaker 2: It's certain yet another justification, right, a new justifica. Well,
- 15:52Speaker 2: we think they may attack us. There is zero indication
- 15:55Speaker 2: of fat okay US and Israel. We are the belligerents
- 15:57Speaker 2: in the region. They're the ones that really needs to be,
- 16:00Speaker 2: you know, concerned and striking up defensive positions. I mean,
- 16:04Speaker 2: I think we also need to remember that reporting from
- 16:07Speaker 2: last time when Trump pulled back, you know, which we
- 16:10Speaker 2: support the Taco We are in full support of many
- 16:13Speaker 2: Trump tacos pro taco, especially in this instance. But there
- 16:16Speaker 2: was a report that the Israelis actually like, yo, we're
- 16:18Speaker 2: not ready yet. And you know, last time, a lot
- 16:22Speaker 2: of the indications which you wouldn't hear in Western press,
- 16:24Speaker 2: but what it looked like happened is that the Iranians
- 16:27Speaker 2: were able to significantly penetrate Israel's missile defense systems. They
- 16:32Speaker 2: were running low on interceptors, and they were like, hey,
- 16:35Speaker 2: we got to negotiate some sort of a peace deal
- 16:37Speaker 2: for now so that we can rebuild our supplies. You know,
- 16:40Speaker 2: this is part of the military assets that are being
- 16:43Speaker 2: moved to the region as well, is more missile defense systems,
- 16:46Speaker 2: not just to protect us, but also to protect the Israelis,
- 16:49Speaker 2: which is what we always do. So I think that
- 16:52Speaker 2: was the reason for the that was the reason for
- 16:54Speaker 2: the original ceasefire, that was the reason for the delay.
- 16:57Speaker 5: In the plans.
- 16:59Speaker 2: And now that you have all all of these assets
- 17:00Speaker 2: coming in and you know, the Israelis coming to town
- 17:03Speaker 2: to give us the target list, it's looking pretty grim here.
- 17:07Speaker 2: I mean, it's looking like and Trump needs some sort
- 17:10Speaker 2: of political win, and he thinks the war is great
- 17:12Speaker 2: for his image. Cheer, and we'll get everybody talking about
- 17:14Speaker 2: something other than Americans being executed in the street in Minneapolis.
- 17:18Speaker 1: Let's put the Iranian response, please mac A five. The
- 17:22Speaker 1: Islamic Republic of Iran responds with the Trump style statement,
- 17:25Speaker 1: last time the US blundered into wars in Afghanistan, and
- 17:28Speaker 1: in Iraq it squandered over squandered over seven trillion dollars
- 17:32Speaker 1: and lost more than seven thousand American lives. Iran stands
- 17:34Speaker 1: ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interest, but
- 17:37Speaker 1: if pushed, it will defend itself and respond like never before. Look,
- 17:41Speaker 1: we have no idea. Remember the Iranians also kind of
- 17:44Speaker 1: tacoed last time around, because you know, they fired these missiles. Again.
- 17:48Speaker 1: I supported this is a good thing. They fired these
- 17:50Speaker 1: thirteen missiles at the Doha base. They basically gave us
- 17:52Speaker 1: a heads up. We shot him down, and everybody just
- 17:55Speaker 1: kind of walked away. Everybody gets to live great, good face.
- 17:57Speaker 1: Saved everybody's cool this time, though, as we saw with Israel.
- 18:02Speaker 1: Remember with Israel, they did and were able to inflict
- 18:05Speaker 1: some major damage upon that country. Let's put a six
- 18:08Speaker 1: up here on the screen, Nettanyahu ahead of this, saying
- 18:12Speaker 1: quote Netta Yahu repeats the warning against Iran making a
- 18:15Speaker 1: grave mistake of attacking Israel. So look, these are all
- 18:19Speaker 1: just breadcrumbs. We have no idea of how they will
- 18:22Speaker 1: all end up. But the stage is set, just like
- 18:24Speaker 1: it was for Maduro. Is that at any point the
- 18:27Speaker 1: situa the ripcord can be pulled and something extraordinary could happen.
- 18:32Speaker 1: Except this time, we're talking about a country with ninety
- 18:34Speaker 1: million people, with multiple different ethnic groups. We've got democracy protesters,
- 18:40Speaker 1: we've got the regime elements themselves, all of whom are
- 18:43Speaker 1: highly armed. And yeah, from a basic strategic perspective, you
- 18:47Speaker 1: can understand how watching Venezuela, how can you ever ever
- 18:53Speaker 1: give up anything that could potentially stave off some sort
- 18:57Speaker 1: of attack like this if you are in any way
- 19:00Speaker 1: an aggressor state or an oppositional state to the United States,
- 19:04Speaker 1: Their ballistic missile threat is the only guarantee guarantee of
- 19:09Speaker 1: not becoming an Israeli rump state. And by the way,
- 19:11Speaker 1: that's what the Israelis and apparently the Americans want for them.
- 19:15Speaker 1: So they either surrender now, which look it's possible, it's
- 19:19Speaker 1: possible that they may do so that they're supposedly so weak.
- 19:22Speaker 1: But part of the problem is that we always know
- 19:24Speaker 1: is that the goalposts always move. And basically, as we
- 19:27Speaker 1: saw during the Twelve Day War, even though they said
- 19:29Speaker 1: that it was over, the end result is always the same.
- 19:32Speaker 1: They will these people will stop at nothing for regime change.
- 19:35Speaker 1: They will flagrantly lie about it, and the net result
- 19:39Speaker 1: will be Syria. I mean, that is the modal outcome
- 19:42Speaker 1: Syria and Libya, even in instances where the United States
- 19:45Speaker 1: is not put so boots on the ground or any
- 19:48Speaker 1: of that. So, you know, and this also is not Venezuela.
- 19:51Speaker 1: You don't have you know, a similar at least for now,
- 19:54Speaker 1: a situation where there's at least some elements in the
- 19:56Speaker 1: regime that we may be willing to play. You know,
- 19:58Speaker 1: you also are going to have Look if the United
- 20:01Speaker 1: States comes in, it takes out an Iranian leader, the
- 20:04Speaker 1: Ayatola or any of the IRGC officials, Like, are they
- 20:08Speaker 1: really just going to take it lying down? Maybe for
- 20:10Speaker 1: five months, maybe for six months, but after that collapse.
- 20:14Speaker 1: You know, it took what twelve fourteen years something like
- 20:17Speaker 1: that for USAD to collapse, so it can take it
- 20:20Speaker 1: can take a long time. They will obviously, just like
- 20:23Speaker 1: with Venezuela, they'll do mission accomplished. They've tried to learn
- 20:26Speaker 1: the lesson of no boots on the ground, But honestly,
- 20:28Speaker 1: that can invite even more or even as much chaos
- 20:31Speaker 1: as when we do. So we will see how this
- 20:33Speaker 1: situation unfolds. What we did want to, but we had
- 20:35Speaker 1: to start the show with this because this is this
- 20:37Speaker 1: is so important to keep your eye on. It can
- 20:39Speaker 1: come literally out of nowhere. Remember, allegedly things were calming
- 20:42Speaker 1: down with Venezuela and the next thing you know, Maduro
- 20:44Speaker 1: is on his way to the United States. So everybody
- 20:47Speaker 1: pay very close attention.
- 20:49Speaker 2: Well, and there's there's one other piece that I just
- 20:51Speaker 2: want to mention here, and this is again not to
- 20:53Speaker 2: take away anything from the you know, the legitimate protests.
- 20:56Speaker 2: There's no doubt that the Iranian government is unpopular with
- 20:59Speaker 2: the largement of the population. What percent that is, I
- 21:01Speaker 2: don't know, but there is a large segment of the
- 21:03Speaker 2: population that is very unhappy. Scott Bessant at Davos all
- 21:07Speaker 2: but admitted bragged about the economic pressure, the economic warfare
- 21:12Speaker 2: that the US has been waging against Iran and the
- 21:15Speaker 2: increased pressure. It's important to understand this was something else
- 21:19Speaker 2: that actually Jeffrey sax laid out in that interview with
- 21:21Speaker 2: with Glenn deson the recent Scott Bessant became so wealthy
- 21:25Speaker 2: and what he became known for was working with George
- 21:28Speaker 2: Soros in the nineties to attack the British Pound successfully
- 21:32Speaker 2: by the way, so this is a guy who knows
- 21:34Speaker 2: about attacking currencies and what triggered what was the like
- 21:39Speaker 2: igniting force behind these protests. It was a currency collapse
- 21:43Speaker 2: and then it you know, spread more broadly. And obviously
- 21:46Speaker 2: there are a lot of reasons that people in Iran
- 21:48Speaker 2: are dissatisfied with their government, but that was the precipitating force.
- 21:52Speaker 2: Then you also had you know, the Israelis and others
- 21:55Speaker 2: bragging about massad agents into the streets alongside the protesters,
- 21:59Speaker 2: like we can't be polyami. And imagine that the US
- 22:01Speaker 2: were in Israel, were not involved at all, that they
- 22:04Speaker 2: were totally hands off. No, they were trying to engineer
- 22:06Speaker 2: this level of pressure. And this has been you know,
- 22:09Speaker 2: acute in this instance, these tactics that are being deployed,
- 22:12Speaker 2: but this has been the long term strategy.
- 22:14Speaker 5: Of the US.
- 22:15Speaker 2: So you know, that's worth putting out there just in
- 22:18Speaker 2: terms of thinking about They've tried a variety of techniques
- 22:22Speaker 2: in order to try to effectuate some sort of regime
- 22:25Speaker 2: change or just regime collapse, which the Israelis would be
- 22:28Speaker 2: perfectly happy with because then that state is a mess.
- 22:31Speaker 1: I would love that.
- 22:32Speaker 2: Yeah, and they no longer have, you know, any sort
- 22:34Speaker 2: of challenge for regional hegemony, They would be perfectly happy
- 22:38Speaker 2: with that. So there have been a variety of techniques
- 22:40Speaker 2: that have been tried, and this may be the latest effort. Now, Trump,
- 22:45Speaker 2: it appears, is very reluctant to actually get in in
- 22:49Speaker 2: the you know, Iraq war sense and boots on the ground, etc.
- 22:52Speaker 5: And in Venezuela.
- 22:53Speaker 2: So far he's been able to pull that off of
- 22:57Speaker 2: just doing this decapitation strike and then having Delza red
- 22:59Speaker 2: ride is in place and having her play ball with
- 23:02Speaker 2: him and you know, do whatever he wanted her to
- 23:04Speaker 2: do with the oil. Again, Maduro was willing to do
- 23:06Speaker 2: those things, but put that aside. Iran is more it's
- 23:09Speaker 2: it's more difficult. I mean, even just from the military perspective,
- 23:13Speaker 2: Caracas is right on the is on the water. Tehran
- 23:16Speaker 2: is not right and it's yeah, it's closer by, and
- 23:19Speaker 2: Tehran is not right on any sort of body of what.
- 23:21Speaker 2: You have to overfly the country in order to get
- 23:23Speaker 2: to Tehran. So even just from a military perspective, it
- 23:26Speaker 2: is more complex. You are always risking that there is
- 23:30Speaker 2: some sort of conflagration that American service members died.
- 23:33Speaker 5: There was a close call actually.
- 23:34Speaker 2: In Venezuela in that operation where a helicopter was nearly
- 23:38Speaker 2: disabled or was disabled and there had to be a rescue.
- 23:40Speaker 2: Those sorts of things create so much risk. Military operations
- 23:45Speaker 2: are not always going to go perfectly one hundred percent
- 23:48Speaker 2: of the time. Iran is not Venezuela, right, they are
- 23:51Speaker 2: not identical countries. There are totally different political forces to
- 23:56Speaker 2: be reckoned with here. So it is an extremely, extremely
- 23:58Speaker 2: dangerous game that they are.
- 24:03Speaker 1: And now let's get to Venezuela. There were some great
- 24:07Speaker 1: moments between Senator Ran Paul and and Secretary of State
- 24:11Speaker 1: Marco Rubio on Venezuela. Here's Senator Paul pressing him on
- 24:15Speaker 1: the Venezuela operation. Let's take a listen.
- 24:17Speaker 7: So I would ask you if a foreign country bombed
- 24:20Speaker 7: our air defense missiles, captured and removed our president, and
- 24:24Speaker 7: blockaded our country, would that be considered an active war?
- 24:28Speaker 6: Well, I think your question is about the and I
- 24:30Speaker 6: will acknowledge you been very consistent on all these points
- 24:33Speaker 6: the entire career. So let me let me no matter
- 24:36Speaker 6: who the who's in charge. So I will point to
- 24:38Speaker 6: two things. The first is it's hard for us to
- 24:41Speaker 6: conceive that an operation that lasted about four and a
- 24:43Speaker 6: half hours and was a law enforcement operation to capture
- 24:46Speaker 6: someone we don't recognize as a head of state indicted
- 24:49Speaker 6: in the United States.
- 24:50Speaker 7: One with a fifty million.
- 24:51Speaker 8: Dollars bout would be if it only took four hours
- 24:54Speaker 8: to take our presidents very short. Nobody dies on the
- 24:57Speaker 8: other side, nobody dies on our side. It's perfect. Would
- 25:00Speaker 8: it be an active war?
- 25:01Speaker 6: We just don't believe that this operation comes anywhere close
- 25:04Speaker 6: to the constitutional definition.
- 25:05Speaker 7: Of But would it be an active war?
- 25:07Speaker 8: Someone did it does nobody does, few casualties there in
- 25:10Speaker 8: and out, boom, It's a perfect military operation. Would that
- 25:13Speaker 8: be an active war? Of course it would be an
- 25:16Speaker 8: active war. I'm probably the most anti war person in
- 25:19Speaker 8: the Senate, and I would vote to declare war if
- 25:22Speaker 8: someone invaded our country and took our president.
- 25:25Speaker 7: So I think we need to at least.
- 25:27Speaker 8: Acknowledge this is a one way argument. One way arguments
- 25:30Speaker 8: that don't rebound, that you can't apply to yourselves, that
- 25:34Speaker 8: cannot be universally applicable, are bad arguments.
- 25:37Speaker 4: Yep.
- 25:37Speaker 1: I mean, he's obviously right, and the fact that Rubio
- 25:40Speaker 1: can't even respond. There are a lot of moments here
- 25:43Speaker 1: for mister Rubio where there was some mask off here.
- 25:46Speaker 1: Next one is on Cuba. This is about regime change
- 25:50Speaker 1: in Cuba. He would not rule it out. Let's take
- 25:53Speaker 1: a listen.
- 25:54Speaker 9: Will you make a public commitment today to rule out
- 25:57Speaker 9: US regime change in Cuba?
- 26:00Speaker 1: Change? Yes?
- 26:00Speaker 6: Oh no, I think we would like to see the regime,
- 26:02Speaker 6: no change. We would like to That doesn't mean that
- 26:04Speaker 6: we're going to make a change, but we would love
- 26:05Speaker 6: to see a change.
- 26:06Speaker 9: I'm not asking you whether we would prefer a different
- 26:09Speaker 9: kind of government. I'm asking whether you are trying to
- 26:12Speaker 9: precipitate the fall of the current regime.
- 26:14Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's statutory.
- 26:16Speaker 6: The Helms Burton Act, the US embargo on Cuba is codified.
- 26:20Speaker 6: It was codified in law, and it requires regime change
- 26:22Speaker 6: in order for US to lift the embargo.
- 26:24Speaker 1: So he will not rule out regime change in Cuba.
- 26:26Speaker 1: It started off talking about Iran. Refuses to say that
- 26:29Speaker 1: it is an act of war. This is it. I mean,
- 26:32Speaker 1: this is the Donro doctrine fully in effect. But you know,
- 26:36Speaker 1: to the Iran Let's just take the Iran situation again
- 26:39Speaker 1: as why it's very important. They wanted to do something,
- 26:42Speaker 1: couldn't do it a bunch of naval assets down here
- 26:44Speaker 1: in Caribbean, a bunch of naval assets in the South
- 26:47Speaker 1: trying to see now what they're basically trying to do.
- 26:49Speaker 1: This is the basic equivalent of world policemen, like pure
- 26:53Speaker 1: two thousand and five neo conservatism, without any of the democracy.
- 26:57Speaker 1: It's just the idea. It's like the famous Joanah Goldberg quote,
- 27:00Speaker 1: like every once in a while, the United States should
- 27:01Speaker 1: go out and just overthrow a dictator just to show
- 27:04Speaker 1: that we can, right, And that's effectively like what this means.
- 27:08Speaker 1: What this ignores is the economic situation that we're all
- 27:12Speaker 1: currently in. It ignores the fact that we it's no
- 27:14Speaker 1: longer the unipolar moment that we have not just a
- 27:17Speaker 1: rising China, very capable China. We have multiple strategic allies
- 27:21Speaker 1: who are thinking very differently about their own security situation.
- 27:25Speaker 1: India comes to mind, Japan, South Korea, all of these countries.
- 27:29Speaker 1: We have a totally different global economy. And ironically, you know,
- 27:32Speaker 1: this time around, the Europeans are all in on Venezuela
- 27:36Speaker 1: and regime change. By the way, France just took a
- 27:38Speaker 1: step yesterday to trying to put even more regime pressure
- 27:42Speaker 1: on Iran just so everybody understands where they're coming from.
- 27:45Speaker 1: But the rest of the world, a much more powerful
- 27:48Speaker 1: rest of the world, which had very little say in
- 27:50Speaker 1: global affairs in back in two thousand and three, they
- 27:53Speaker 1: don't think so different. They think very differently than the
- 27:56Speaker 1: rest of these people. So you could see very clearly
- 27:59Speaker 1: how this all come to a head and invite global chaos,
- 28:03Speaker 1: not even just regional chaos like we had during Iraq.
- 28:06Speaker 1: And then what do we do. We have to pick
- 28:09Speaker 1: and choose, and worse, this one would be entirely of
- 28:12Speaker 1: our own making. It would be a war of choice,
- 28:14Speaker 1: just like Iraq was, and we all know how that
- 28:16Speaker 1: worked out.
- 28:17Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, if you put Roan and Venezuela and Cuba
- 28:23Speaker 2: and Greenland and even Canada, I mean, I think they're
- 28:26Speaker 2: actually serious about the like annexing Canada thing they keep
- 28:29Speaker 2: talking about Alberta separatists like I think they are. They
- 28:32Speaker 2: do not believe in this principle that we've all sort
- 28:35Speaker 2: of taken for granted, the idea of sovereignty.
- 28:38Speaker 5: They don't believe in that. And you put that.
- 28:40Speaker 2: Together with the Board of Peace, which is meant to
- 28:43Speaker 2: replace the un like Trump's wants himself to be the
- 28:47Speaker 2: undisputed emperor of the world. It's not enough to have
- 28:51Speaker 2: multilateral institutions that are dominated by the US, that the
- 28:55Speaker 2: US like by and large ninety percent of the time, controls.
- 28:58Speaker 2: He wants to have one hundred percent of control. He
- 29:01Speaker 2: wants to be the chairman of the Board, as he's
- 29:03Speaker 2: putting himself in terms of the quote unquote Board of Peace,
- 29:06Speaker 2: which was originally sold as just being about Gaza and
- 29:09Speaker 2: then you know, lo and behold once the documents come
- 29:12Speaker 2: out as no, no, no, this is a total replacement
- 29:15Speaker 2: for the UN that puts me as.
- 29:17Speaker 5: The lifetime king.
- 29:19Speaker 2: And yeah, you other countries can join, especially if you
- 29:22Speaker 2: give me a billion dollars that I can do whatever
- 29:24Speaker 2: I want with. But if you piss me off, I'm
- 29:26Speaker 2: gonna kick you off, which he already did with Canada.
- 29:28Speaker 2: You know, Mark Carney stepped down a line and went
- 29:31Speaker 2: and did a deal with chiny He's like, all right,
- 29:32Speaker 2: you're out. Then forget about it. He has total control.
- 29:35Speaker 2: He has absolute vetote power. That is the way he
- 29:38Speaker 2: wants to run the world. I mean, he said it
- 29:41Speaker 2: himself that the only check on his on what he does.
- 29:46Speaker 2: There's no legal institution either here or internationally. It's just
- 29:50Speaker 2: his own mind, his own quote unquote morality. And so,
- 29:53Speaker 2: you know Cuba, there's again a parallel here with Iran,
- 29:57Speaker 2: where they tried to use economic pressure to collapse the
- 29:59Speaker 2: regime hasn't succeeded yet. That's what they're trying to do
- 30:03Speaker 2: with Cuba. They're blocking you know, Venezuela and other oil
- 30:06Speaker 2: from reaching Cuba. That country is already because of you know,
- 30:10Speaker 2: a variety of reasons, but predominantly because of our decades
- 30:13Speaker 2: long economic warfare against Cuba. The conditions truly are incredibly dire.
- 30:19Speaker 5: It would not be.
- 30:20Speaker 2: Surprising if just the economic warfare worked out. But that's
- 30:23Speaker 2: the tactic they're deploying now, and if that doesn't succeed,
- 30:26Speaker 2: then they'll try another tactic, just like what we have
- 30:28Speaker 2: seen them cycling through with regard to Iran.
- 30:31Speaker 1: Yeah, very important, as you said, And just to continue
- 30:34Speaker 1: to keep an eye a little bit on Venezuela. There's
- 30:38Speaker 1: weird stuff that is currently happening. Can we put a
- 30:40Speaker 1: ten up here on the screen. Delsa Rodriguez now claiming
- 30:45Speaker 1: that she has quote had enough of US interference in
- 30:49Speaker 1: US orders? How much KFA is going on here. We
- 30:53Speaker 1: have no idea, you know, is she a collaborator? To me,
- 30:57Speaker 1: it seems very likely she's probably the one that sold
- 31:00Speaker 1: them out. We don't really know for sure. What we
- 31:03Speaker 1: do generally kind of know is that this oil scheme
- 31:06Speaker 1: seems to be going very well for Venezuela and for
- 31:10Speaker 1: the United States. And in fact, Rubio was asked about
- 31:12Speaker 1: this and these oil funds which are currently in a
- 31:15Speaker 1: Katari bank account, and how exactly they're all going to
- 31:17Speaker 1: be administered. So A nine MAC, can you go ahead
- 31:20Speaker 1: and roll it?
- 31:21Speaker 9: Earlier you testified that the funds are being held short
- 31:24Speaker 9: term and Cutter and then we'll move to a Treasury
- 31:27Speaker 9: blocked account. What is the statutory authority for the administration
- 31:31Speaker 9: relying on Cutter to hold the funds.
- 31:34Speaker 6: It's not our funds.
- 31:35Speaker 7: The funds are in an account that's owned and signed.
- 31:39Speaker 6: It's an account that belongs to Venezuela, but it has
- 31:42Speaker 6: US sanctions as a blocking mechanism on it.
- 31:44Speaker 9: And you're saying it's Venezuela's money. But it does sound
- 31:47Speaker 9: like according to the EO, according to the President's statements,
- 31:51Speaker 9: you are in charge of that money. How what authority
- 31:54Speaker 9: are you relying on to be in charge almost in
- 31:58Speaker 9: a sort of receivership kind of arrangement of how funds
- 32:03Speaker 9: are both received and expended for a foreign country, Like,
- 32:05Speaker 9: wouldn't you have to come to Congress to establish.
- 32:08Speaker 7: That kind of Really?
- 32:09Speaker 6: Well no, because the money never enters our hands. We
- 32:11Speaker 6: only control the disbursement of the money. We don't control
- 32:13Speaker 6: the actual money. But if it comes into our bank account.
- 32:16Speaker 9: Do you think that you have somewhere in the statute
- 32:19Speaker 9: or the constitution the authority to control disbursements of a
- 32:25Speaker 9: foreign country.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Well, they've agreed to this, so yeah. I mean, this
- 32:29Speaker 1: is why I think that the del c. Rodriguez thing
- 32:31Speaker 1: is kind of a cafe. Remember, they're going to be
- 32:33Speaker 1: massively enriched the Maduro regime, by the way. Current reports
- 32:37Speaker 1: that are coming out from Venezuela are that all of
- 32:40Speaker 1: the Maduro gangs continue to roam the streets and to
- 32:43Speaker 1: control security checkpoints. So, if anything, the regime is going
- 32:47Speaker 1: to be quite a bit stronger. Again, not that they
- 32:49Speaker 1: ever particularly cared about democracy in Venezuela. And then the
- 32:52Speaker 1: very last thing that we had to put up here
- 32:54Speaker 1: is this new CNN report A twelve Shall we see
- 33:00Speaker 1: and then had this report. They say, it remains to
- 33:02Speaker 1: be seen how the Venezuelan people respond to a more
- 33:05Speaker 1: overt CIA presence in the country post Maduro. For years,
- 33:08Speaker 1: Maduro casts a CIA as a convenient boogeyman, repeatedly accusing
- 33:12Speaker 1: the agency without evidence, of attempting to topple his regime
- 33:16Speaker 1: as he clung to power. Now, the CIA has helped
- 33:19Speaker 1: supplant Maduro and his boys to help manage the Trump
- 33:22Speaker 1: administrate his dealings with Venezuela new leadership. So without evidence,
- 33:27Speaker 1: he claimed that the CIA was trying to topple him,
- 33:29Speaker 1: and the next paragraph they say, and the CIA.
- 33:32Speaker 2: And then the CIA toppled it. Yes, so lacky Maduro.
- 33:35Speaker 2: Don't know where he gets these crazy ideas.
- 33:38Speaker 1: From oh Oudam Maduro stand or anything. But you know,
- 33:42Speaker 1: I haven't.
- 33:42Speaker 2: Trying to coo him for like how long now at
- 33:44Speaker 2: this point. I mean the first Trumpet ministry, we all
- 33:46Speaker 2: had the whole wanguido thing and some failed.
- 33:49Speaker 5: What did they call it. They didn't call it bea pigs.
- 33:51Speaker 2: They called it I don't remember, something akin to that
- 33:53Speaker 2: that was like, you know, embarrassed. Anyway, there was a
- 33:55Speaker 2: whole failed plot during the first Trump regime as well,
- 33:59Speaker 2: And so I love whether that crazy Maduro with his
- 34:02Speaker 2: paranoid delusion thing in the CIA is out to get
- 34:04Speaker 2: him anyway when the CIA came and take to that now, yeah,
- 34:09Speaker 2: oh my god, it's how do you write this stuff
- 34:12Speaker 2: and like have zero self awareness.
- 34:14Speaker 1: Because that's what they do. Look, you know, these people.
- 34:16Speaker 2: Look at this and not be like, you know, these
- 34:18Speaker 2: two lines that are right next to each other kind
- 34:21Speaker 2: of contradict each other and don't really make sense. At
- 34:23Speaker 2: least space them ount a little bit in terms of
- 34:25Speaker 2: the article.
- 34:26Speaker 1: I don't know for all to talk about how the
- 34:27Speaker 1: press is anti Trump and all that, and that can
- 34:29Speaker 1: be true on like a character level. They do not
- 34:32Speaker 1: object to the core like project of not just US empire,
- 34:37Speaker 1: but of the idea that anything that we do is legitimate,
- 34:40Speaker 1: anything that other people do is illegitimate. They are completely
- 34:43Speaker 1: unable to like put yourself in another person's shoes or
- 34:46Speaker 1: see things from the others. You see this with Russia,
- 34:48Speaker 1: says in the Ukraine situation's a NATO. It just it
- 34:52Speaker 1: never ends. And like, if there's any core project that
- 34:55Speaker 1: I try to instill with all these people is it's
- 34:57Speaker 1: like the around thing they're like, well, why don't they
- 34:59Speaker 1: just give up their ballistic miss I'm like, well, would
- 35:00Speaker 1: you what would you do? You just watched the Venezuela Vigo,
- 35:03Speaker 1: what would you do? Same with North Korea? I mean
- 35:06Speaker 1: during the whole deal. Oh, Kim Jong un, he just
- 35:09Speaker 1: he just won't give up these nukes. I'm like, yeah,
- 35:11Speaker 1: why would he? I'm like, he's this like literally, the
- 35:14Speaker 1: Kim family is one of the most vindicated people in
- 35:16Speaker 1: all of the most vindicated family in all of history.
- 35:19Speaker 1: Not saying they're good people. They killed a shitload, all right,
- 35:22Speaker 1: they're bad, they're bad dictators, et cetera pure strategic logic,
- 35:25Speaker 1: they were correct, Okay, Kim Il sung, Kim Jong Al,
- 35:28Speaker 1: and Kim Jong un all dedicated themselves to a single project,
- 35:31Speaker 1: we will secure a nuclear weapon as a credible deterrent
- 35:33Speaker 1: against the United States. They get to sleep very happy
- 35:36Speaker 1: in their compounds of luxury while they watch basketball or whatever.
- 35:39Speaker 1: And yes, their people suffer, but we can't do anything
- 35:42Speaker 1: about it. And this is this is the core reason why.
- 35:44Speaker 1: That's probably the most important lesson for any person who's
- 35:48Speaker 1: in opposition to the United States to learn Pakistan India.
- 35:52Speaker 1: You know, do do you really think those countries wouldn't
- 35:55Speaker 1: have been way more severely messed with if they didn't
- 35:57Speaker 1: have nukes. It is the only reason why they're allowed
- 36:00Speaker 1: to exist, and so I think that that's just, I mean, again,
- 36:03Speaker 1: very very important lesson. And if you're if you want
- 36:06Speaker 1: to survive in the long run, you should probably get
- 36:08Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. I wish weren't the case. I'm an
- 36:10Speaker 1: advocate of non ploriferation. However, you know, the logic is
- 36:14Speaker 1: extremely simple at this point.
- 36:16Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I can't even really say, like I
- 36:19Speaker 2: would like in an ideal world at some point in
- 36:21Speaker 2: the future to advocate for non proliferation. But for each
- 36:24Speaker 2: of these individual countries, I mean, for Iran, the most
- 36:27Speaker 2: sensible thing at this point would be for them to
- 36:29Speaker 2: race to a bomb like that would be the smartest,
- 36:31Speaker 2: smartest play, and nobody should be surprised if that is
- 36:34Speaker 2: the path that they ultimately pursue.
- 36:36Speaker 5: But this also underscores the.
- 36:39Speaker 2: Reason why Trump's approach here is so incredibly dangerous, because.
- 36:44Speaker 5: You know, we live in a nuclear world.
- 36:46Speaker 2: We live in a world well where we can completely
- 36:49Speaker 2: annihilate each other, and so if we are going back
- 36:53Speaker 2: to these you know like East India Company type colonialism
- 36:58Speaker 2: and the law of the jungle, and my makes right.
- 37:00Speaker 2: We are doing so in an era of the possibility
- 37:05Speaker 2: of complete and utter annihilation. Like we should be very
- 37:08Speaker 2: clear that that's what we're playing with. And I'm not
- 37:10Speaker 2: here saying that that's happening tomorrow or whatever, but that
- 37:14Speaker 2: is what we are playing with right now.
- 37:18Speaker 1: All right. Turning now to the economy, some major developments
- 37:22Speaker 1: whenever it comes to the status of the US dollar.
- 37:25Speaker 1: We did see a very noteworthy clip here from Peter Schiff,
- 37:28Speaker 1: who has been very prescient on major collapses. He was
- 37:31Speaker 1: on Fox Business dropping some truth bonds. Here's what he
- 37:34Speaker 1: had to say.
- 37:35Speaker 3: And the world is now pulling the rug out from
- 37:38Speaker 3: under the US. The dollar is going to collapse. The
- 37:40Speaker 3: dollar is going to be replaced by gold. Central banks
- 37:43Speaker 3: are buying goal they are to back up their pertrecies.
- 37:46Speaker 3: They're getting rid of dollars, they're getting rid of treasuries.
- 37:48Speaker 3: We are headed for an economic crisis again that will
- 37:52Speaker 3: make the two thousand and eight financial crisis look like
- 37:54Speaker 3: a Sunday school picnic. The biggest difference between the crisis
- 37:58Speaker 3: that we're about to have and the one we had
- 38:00Speaker 3: back then is this one is all in America, all.
- 38:03Speaker 1: Right, So all of this is part and parcel, as
- 38:06Speaker 1: we've said here in the past, of a major movement
- 38:10Speaker 1: against the dollar. Now, I want to be very clear,
- 38:13Speaker 1: even when we say dollar crash, we're talking about like
- 38:15Speaker 1: point six one percent or whatever drop. But what this
- 38:18Speaker 1: generally can mean in a longer term trend, especially as
- 38:21Speaker 1: we started here with global affairs, with wars, with what's
- 38:24Speaker 1: going on with Venezuela, the Greenland situation, some reporting that
- 38:28Speaker 1: actually behind the scenes, the Danes and the EU had
- 38:31Speaker 1: threatened the United States with massively selling off big portions
- 38:34Speaker 1: of our debt. Is instability of reserve currency and the
- 38:38Speaker 1: simultaneous spike in gold could lead to some sort of
- 38:42Speaker 1: event like this. Peter Schiff is effectively echoing Ray Dalio thought,
- 38:46Speaker 1: and I don't even really agree necessarily, but I do
- 38:49Speaker 1: think it is important to air this type of perspective
- 38:52Speaker 1: in the midst of all this gold insanity that I
- 38:54Speaker 1: certainly don't fully understand. Let's go and let's go ahead
- 38:57Speaker 1: and queue up Ray Daalio, who has been talking about
- 39:00Speaker 1: this now for quite some time, of video that he
- 39:03Speaker 1: put out just yesterday. Mac, can we take a listen.
- 39:06Speaker 10: It's the beginning of the end of the monetary system
- 39:11Speaker 10: as we know it. It's not just the US Darmer,
- 39:14Speaker 10: it's the fiat monetary currencies, So the UK, the Euro, Japan,
- 39:21Speaker 10: China all have similar debt problems and so on and
- 39:24Speaker 10: are dealing with the same inter relationships, which is the
- 39:28Speaker 10: reason you're seeing gold being chosen by the central banks.
- 39:32Speaker 11: They want a currency. Gold has always been the main currency,
- 39:37Speaker 11: and it's the only non fiat currency in other words,
- 39:41Speaker 11: not the currency that can't be printed that they want.
- 39:45Speaker 11: And so that's why you're seeing central banks move and
- 39:48Speaker 11: sovereign will funds moved to gold, and that's the nature
- 39:51Speaker 11: of the shift of the monetary system.
- 39:54Speaker 1: So I mean, effectively, what he's saying is about a
- 39:56Speaker 1: flight from US reserve status in the midst of global instability. Again,
- 40:00Speaker 1: I don't fully buy a lot of goldbug arguments and
- 40:03Speaker 1: gold standard stuff that could I think can go to
- 40:06Speaker 1: kukery very very quickly. But it is undeniable that this
- 40:10Speaker 1: massive price spike in goal is not connected deeply to
- 40:15Speaker 1: the actions of the Trump administration and of the United States,
- 40:18Speaker 1: especially in the last you know year or so under
- 40:21Speaker 1: the under Donald Trump, the terror regime, global instability, and
- 40:25Speaker 1: it could be you know, about flight to its Usually
- 40:28Speaker 1: it's what it really signals. And this is why I
- 40:30Speaker 1: think he's talking about collapse. It's not just about currency,
- 40:33Speaker 1: but about flight to safety away from US assets, and
- 40:36Speaker 1: what that broadly means is about lack of strength and
- 40:40Speaker 1: faith in the overall US economy, which of course is
- 40:43Speaker 1: what all of our four oh one k you know,
- 40:45Speaker 1: rely on, all of our retirement accounts. Everybody's just general
- 40:49Speaker 1: ability to buy and trade with foreign goods. It's going
- 40:52Speaker 1: to make exports and you know, very different in terms
- 40:55Speaker 1: of our relationship manufacturing inputs, all those types of things.
- 40:59Speaker 1: So that's why I do think it is still interesting.
- 41:01Speaker 1: We do have to, you know, I like to pay
- 41:03Speaker 1: attention to the dalios and the shifts of the world,
- 41:06Speaker 1: even though I don't necessarily one hundred percent agree per se.
- 41:10Speaker 1: But like you can't look at the current movement in
- 41:12Speaker 1: the gold market and say it doesn't sew something. It's
- 41:15Speaker 1: definitely showing us something and we're all just trying to
- 41:17Speaker 1: figure out what that is.
- 41:19Speaker 2: Daalio has a theory of the cycles that societies go
- 41:23Speaker 2: through that is worth engaging with as well, and in
- 41:27Speaker 2: his view. We've now moved from phase five to phase six,
- 41:31Speaker 2: which is basically like imminent civil war and some sort
- 41:35Speaker 2: of you know, mass turmoil. And you know, I think
- 41:39Speaker 2: there are signs that we could be heading towards that.
- 41:42Speaker 2: We'll talk more in the block about Minneapolis and what's
- 41:44Speaker 2: going on there. The sort of face saving moves that
- 41:47Speaker 2: Trump is engaging in now to sort of step back
- 41:50Speaker 2: from the brink. I think that's all very good. I'm
- 41:52Speaker 2: glad to see it, because the temperature has been so
- 41:55Speaker 2: incredibly high that, you know, I've been quite worried about
- 41:58Speaker 2: it spiling out of control. Doesn't mean it's not going
- 42:00Speaker 2: to spiral out of control, but at least maybe there's
- 42:02Speaker 2: a step back from the brink right at this moment.
- 42:05Speaker 2: You know, my understanding of what this Trump administration is
- 42:09Speaker 2: doing right now, and Trump himself and Scott Bessett and
- 42:12Speaker 2: others have sort of indicated this. They've laid out their strategy,
- 42:15Speaker 2: et cetera. Trump was asked about the decline of the dollar,
- 42:20Speaker 2: and when the dollar declines, you know, most of the
- 42:22Speaker 2: things that we all buy at this point are imported
- 42:25Speaker 2: from abroad.
- 42:26Speaker 5: So if the dollar.
- 42:27Speaker 2: Isn't buying as many goods abroad. That means everything's getting
- 42:31Speaker 2: more expensive for you. That means whatever you've got in
- 42:33Speaker 2: your savings account or whatever wages you're earning, they're not
- 42:36Speaker 2: going as far. Right, So, for your average person who
- 42:39Speaker 2: doesn't own a lot of assets, the dollar's decline is
- 42:43Speaker 2: it's really bad, right. It takes away your purchasing power,
- 42:46Speaker 2: It makes you poor. If you are a very wealthy
- 42:50Speaker 2: person who is an asset owner, it actually can be beneficial.
- 42:54Speaker 2: It also is beneficial, and this is part of their
- 42:57Speaker 2: part of why they're moving in this direction, I think
- 42:59Speaker 2: intention only. It also is beneficial in terms of making
- 43:03Speaker 2: your exports more competitive. So if you do want to rebuild,
- 43:07Speaker 2: you know, in the manufacturing basis, this is something you're prioritizing.
- 43:10Speaker 2: This would be something that you would do, and so
- 43:12Speaker 2: for people who own those capital producing assets, it also
- 43:16Speaker 2: is beneficial. The other reason to do this is because
- 43:20Speaker 2: we have a massive amount of debt.
- 43:23Speaker 5: So if you.
- 43:24Speaker 2: Make the dollar value like that those dollars worth less,
- 43:29Speaker 2: then it is easier to pay off that debt. And
- 43:32Speaker 2: that has also been you know something that has been Yeah,
- 43:35Speaker 2: this is a tactic that's been deployed over any number.
- 43:37Speaker 1: Of currency manipulation is very common.
- 43:40Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, So I think that is what is going on. So,
- 43:43Speaker 2: you know, when Trump comes out and he gets asked
- 43:45Speaker 2: about the dollar's decline and he's like, I'm happy with it,
- 43:48Speaker 2: Like I'm happy with the where the dollars, I think
- 43:50Speaker 2: you should take his word for it that that is
- 43:52Speaker 2: actually their plan, and you need to understand what that
- 43:55Speaker 2: means for you, for what's in your savings account, for
- 43:58Speaker 2: what's in your you know, ability to purchase, and that
- 44:01Speaker 2: is a plan directly to make you poor in terms.
- 44:04Speaker 2: So that's one piece. The other piece is this question
- 44:08Speaker 2: of selling American right, not purchasing American not buying American bonds,
- 44:13Speaker 2: off loading treasury bonds, not holding as much in terms
- 44:18Speaker 2: of dollar reserve. Central banks have reduced their amount of
- 44:20Speaker 2: dollar reserves. That is a separate piece which really reflects
- 44:24Speaker 2: the sort of you know, the shrinking power of the US,
- 44:29Speaker 2: the fact that a lot of countries are very unhappy
- 44:31Speaker 2: with US and the way we run the global financial system,
- 44:33Speaker 2: the increasing realization that we are not in the unipolar
- 44:37Speaker 2: moment anymore, countries wanting to protect themselves from you know,
- 44:41Speaker 2: our ability to completely manipulate their financial system, and you
- 44:46Speaker 2: know the part of Peter Shift's analysis there that I'm
- 44:48Speaker 2: skeptical of is I don't know that it happens in
- 44:51Speaker 2: this big collapse all at once, but you can see
- 44:53Speaker 2: this sort of slow and steady erosion moving in a
- 44:57Speaker 2: direction away from the US being the central player and
- 45:02Speaker 2: you know, the one and only central player in the
- 45:04Speaker 2: global financial system.
- 45:05Speaker 4: Yeah right.
- 45:05Speaker 1: And by the way, as we speak, gold is currently
- 45:07Speaker 1: a fifty five hundred per Houns. It's insane. I mean,
- 45:09Speaker 1: I literally, I mean not only not sitting like this,
- 45:12Speaker 1: but everyone's calling it safe haven. And yeah, you're right.
- 45:14Speaker 1: I mean, this is again why I also generally look
- 45:17Speaker 1: the goldbugs. You know, many of them are also invested,
- 45:19Speaker 1: and that's why I'm always a little bit skeptical sometimes
- 45:22Speaker 1: of their analysis. But they have good critiques of the
- 45:24Speaker 1: global financial system. And I think one of the things
- 45:26Speaker 1: that you know you're pointing to is if we look
- 45:29Speaker 1: at the way that empires kind of fade away, is
- 45:32Speaker 1: that this is kind of sometimes can be canary in
- 45:35Speaker 1: the coal mine. Usually what happens is a great war. Unfortunately,
- 45:39Speaker 1: what we just talked about was a war with Iran,
- 45:42Speaker 1: you know, so who knows it could be certainly something.
- 45:44Speaker 1: So you see instability. Then you have an outbreak of
- 45:47Speaker 1: a great war, and immediately afterwards. Usually what happens is
- 45:50Speaker 1: you don't immediately acknowledge. You're like, oh, well, we're no
- 45:53Speaker 1: longer an empire, but you slowly, within the next decade,
- 45:57Speaker 1: you know, find yourself no longer let's say the Pound
- 45:59Speaker 1: Stirling no longer as powerful as it once was, and you,
- 46:03Speaker 1: you know, watch your empire kind of fade from nineteen
- 46:05Speaker 1: nineteen all the way up until the nineteen sixties. That's
- 46:08Speaker 1: usually what the story can look like, let's say the
- 46:10Speaker 1: Roman Empire, any of these others, if you've studied this,
- 46:13Speaker 1: but internally also a key part of strength is not
- 46:18Speaker 1: just how you trade abroad, but what happens to you
- 46:21Speaker 1: at home. So yesterday we talked, sorry, two days ago,
- 46:24Speaker 1: we talked about the long term unemployment rate. We also
- 46:28Speaker 1: have this AI data spending that's all been happening. You know,
- 46:31Speaker 1: we haven't covered it in quite some time, but it
- 46:33Speaker 1: is still like a massive monolith of all of our
- 46:36Speaker 1: GDP per capita spend. And we're also beginning to see
- 46:39Speaker 1: the effects of this in the white collar marketplace. So
- 46:42Speaker 1: can we put B four please up on the screen.
- 46:44Speaker 1: This is a you know, massively influential story. Amazon is
- 46:48Speaker 1: set to act another sixteen thousand corporate jobs. The cuts
- 46:53Speaker 1: will bring the total number of layoffs to thirty thousand
- 46:57Speaker 1: over the last three months, and a higher spending on AI,
- 47:00Speaker 1: and they said organization changes, reducing layers, removing bureaucracy. Most
- 47:05Speaker 1: US Bays based employees would be given ninety days to
- 47:08Speaker 1: look for a new role internally or offered service severance
- 47:12Speaker 1: pay and the cuts basically from thirty thousand all appears
- 47:16Speaker 1: to be part of the AI and how it would
- 47:19Speaker 1: reduce the Amazon headcount, which they previewed last year in
- 47:23Speaker 1: their investor letter. And this is you know, the second
- 47:25Speaker 1: round that we've seen already. If you total it up
- 47:29Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty three, it's like tens of thousands
- 47:32Speaker 1: actually that have been laid off from Amazon. So I
- 47:35Speaker 1: think it's really really important for people to pay attention,
- 47:38Speaker 1: you know, in these white collar tech more focused workplaces,
- 47:41Speaker 1: because that can be a precursor to what's happening to you.
- 47:44Speaker 1: And so if we have high unemployment, then we're going
- 47:46Speaker 1: to be thinking also about our own domestic federal interest
- 47:50Speaker 1: rate policy and how that interacts with the globe safe
- 47:53Speaker 1: like this is where chaos. I'm not saying it's the
- 47:55Speaker 1: Great Depression, but you can see why the Great Depression
- 47:58Speaker 1: was so massively influential, where we had to balance not
- 48:01Speaker 1: only what was happening here but with the global system
- 48:03Speaker 1: itself and how that unleashed, you know, an insane war
- 48:06Speaker 1: in the Second World War.
- 48:08Speaker 2: Yeah, and from the sound of it, p is very
- 48:10Speaker 2: unhappy about all developments, which I understand if you can
- 48:14Speaker 2: hear that.
- 48:15Speaker 1: Sorry, that's baby life. That is baby life. They don't
- 48:18Speaker 1: care about the microphone. In fact, she likes the microphone.
- 48:21Speaker 1: She likes to come and to play with it whenever.
- 48:23Speaker 5: That's a terrible There we go.
- 48:26Speaker 2: Let's go and put B three up because I actually
- 48:28Speaker 2: think this relates to the Trump account block that we're.
- 48:32Speaker 5: About to do here.
- 48:33Speaker 2: So I really had to sit with this one for
- 48:35Speaker 2: a while to figure out whether this was any meaningful
- 48:38Speaker 2: in any way. But basically, people have been sharing this chart,
- 48:42Speaker 2: and this isn't like, you know, a new invention that
- 48:44Speaker 2: people use, but people track the stock market not only
- 48:48Speaker 2: valued in US dollars, but also okay, compared to the
- 48:51Speaker 2: value of gold. And so the persis is if you
- 48:53Speaker 2: measure the stock market in gold instead of in dollars,
- 48:57Speaker 2: the US stock market has basically collapsed. No, I mean
- 49:00Speaker 2: this makes logical sense when you consider how much gold
- 49:04Speaker 2: has gone up in price, it has vastly exceeded the
- 49:08Speaker 2: you know, returns, the increase in returns on the stock market.
- 49:11Speaker 2: So that's the relationship that is being tracked here. And
- 49:15Speaker 2: what this points to is that in a sense, some
- 49:17Speaker 2: of the stock market gains are a bit of an
- 49:20Speaker 2: illusion because if the dollars are worth less and you're
- 49:25Speaker 2: valuing it in dollars, then it stands to reason that
- 49:29Speaker 2: you know, your store of value is not staying at
- 49:32Speaker 2: the same level. So that's what this chart is is
- 49:35Speaker 2: trying to establish. And like I said, this will kind
- 49:38Speaker 2: of shift us into this Trump account thing, because what
- 49:40Speaker 2: this administration has said is, first of all, they're.
- 49:44Speaker 5: Very interested in the stock market performance.
- 49:46Speaker 2: It's the one thing that really causes Trump to you know,
- 49:48Speaker 2: I think it's a reason he backed down from his
- 49:50Speaker 2: greenland threat threats because he saw the market reacting. He
- 49:53Speaker 2: didn't like that and whatever. And they really talk about
- 49:56Speaker 2: as we move into this AI era, rather than having
- 50:00Speaker 2: more progressive taxation, rather than having public ownership of the
- 50:03Speaker 2: AI technology rather than having some sort of universal basic income.
- 50:07Speaker 2: Their view is, well, why don't we just get everybody
- 50:10Speaker 2: more invested in the stock market, and so then when
- 50:12Speaker 2: Nvidia goes up, you guys, you commoners out there, will
- 50:15Speaker 2: sort of, you know, get the second order gains from
- 50:18Speaker 2: whatever your holdings are in the stock market. That seems
- 50:21Speaker 2: to be their view of how to handle the shift
- 50:25Speaker 2: to the AA economy, where the idea is that you
- 50:28Speaker 2: are going to be out of a job and you know,
- 50:30Speaker 2: you're going to have an even greater consolidation of wealth
- 50:33Speaker 2: and power in the hands of a few. We're already
- 50:36Speaker 2: starting to see in some isolated instances like what we
- 50:38Speaker 2: just covered with Amazon, that job loss. We're seeing an
- 50:41Speaker 2: impact you know, on college grads right now. And so
- 50:44Speaker 2: that is the direction that they think they should push
- 50:47Speaker 2: things in, and I think that is the you know,
- 50:50Speaker 2: the sort of genesis of the idea of these of
- 50:52Speaker 2: these Trump accounts and these investments for babies which are
- 50:56Speaker 2: being piloted.
- 50:57Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, that's a great actually transition, because there's a
- 51:03Speaker 1: lot going on here with these Trump accounts. Trump yesterday
- 51:06Speaker 1: announced them. Before we get into it, is something that
- 51:09Speaker 1: had been passing the Big Beautiful Bill. What they effectively
- 51:13Speaker 1: do is they set up like a child custodial account
- 51:17Speaker 1: which will be funded with one thousand dollars from the
- 51:20Speaker 1: United States government. Now various philanthropies, people like Michael Dell
- 51:24Speaker 1: and others, have announced that they also will be giving
- 51:27Speaker 1: some money, so it could actually be more like twelve
- 51:29Speaker 1: hundred and fifty. The accounts will be very tightly controlled
- 51:32Speaker 1: by the government and will solely invest in low cost
- 51:35Speaker 1: index funds. But I think what's important, you know, and
- 51:38Speaker 1: if you're watching this continuously, this will make more sense,
- 51:41Speaker 1: is that what happened is that in order to potentially
- 51:44Speaker 1: to prop up stock gains, you actually have kind of
- 51:46Speaker 1: a circular share where the government itself will be purchasing
- 51:50Speaker 1: index funds in companies, which of course is going to
- 51:53Speaker 1: have some sort of distortionary effect on the overall price
- 51:55Speaker 1: if you have I mean, I don't know how many
- 51:57Speaker 1: millions of children were born in twenty twenty five, whenever
- 51:59Speaker 1: all of these will be when these who will qualify
- 52:03Speaker 1: for this, but in and of itself, like when they buy,
- 52:06Speaker 1: is going to be important for the overall price and
- 52:08Speaker 1: for the index, and kind of a faith in the US.
- 52:10Speaker 1: This is somewhat common sometimes and sovereign wealth funds and
- 52:13Speaker 1: all that. So it's not in a completely extraordinary thing,
- 52:16Speaker 1: but it has not generally happened here in the history
- 52:19Speaker 1: of the United States. But it's also being sold as
- 52:21Speaker 1: a way for parents and for children. Why these accounts
- 52:24Speaker 1: and all of that are great. And to be clear,
- 52:25Speaker 1: I do not in any way object to giving children
- 52:27Speaker 1: who are born in the United States money, but I
- 52:29Speaker 1: do have some problems with the way that this account
- 52:31Speaker 1: is set up. So with all of that being said,
- 52:33Speaker 1: here's Donald Trump announcing and talking about the Trump account yesterday.
- 52:37Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
- 52:38Speaker 12: Perhaps no provision of the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill will
- 52:42Speaker 12: prove more consequential than Trump accounts. Under this program, the
- 52:47Speaker 12: US government will automatically create a tax free investment account
- 52:51Speaker 12: for every newborn American child, something that nobody really would
- 52:56Speaker 12: have even thought of. There were some brilliant people that
- 53:00Speaker 12: thought of it for a long time. They're here with
- 53:02Speaker 12: us today. We're going to introduce a couple of them,
- 53:05Speaker 12: but nobody really. I mean, I've had friends that the
- 53:08Speaker 12: top people in business, they came up to me, whose
- 53:10Speaker 12: idea was this? This is great I never thought they said,
- 53:13Speaker 12: I never thought of that. We'll fund those personal accounts
- 53:17Speaker 12: with a seed contribution of one thousand dollars, which will
- 53:21Speaker 12: compound and grow over the course of their lives and
- 53:24Speaker 12: could grow it to very very substantial numbers. Parents, employers, churches, states,
- 53:29Speaker 12: and loved ones will also be able to add up
- 53:32Speaker 12: to five thousand dollars in additional money for those accounts,
- 53:36Speaker 12: and with every modest contribution, Trump accounts should reach at
- 53:40Speaker 12: least fifty thousand dollars in value by the time the
- 53:44Speaker 12: child turns eighteen, and could be very substantially more than that.
- 53:48Speaker 13: Today there's one hundred and ten million Americans who basically
- 53:52Speaker 13: have no plan for their future. They never did have
- 53:56Speaker 13: a plan, and they don't know what they're going to
- 53:58Speaker 13: do retirement. This idea, the Trump account solves that problem,
- 54:04Speaker 13: or a good part of.
- 54:05Speaker 14: It, because you're basically.
- 54:07Speaker 13: Making an investment, not just in an individual that's born
- 54:11Speaker 13: in their family.
- 54:14Speaker 14: The burden of a family to educate or help a
- 54:16Speaker 14: child launch can be really difficult, particularly you have a
- 54:21Speaker 14: large one. Think about this and this money you can't
- 54:26Speaker 14: touch for eighteen years. Let the power of the world's
- 54:30Speaker 14: large the economy go to work for a child for
- 54:34Speaker 14: eighteen years and stand back in awe and see what
- 54:39Speaker 14: happens if you can't touch it and you let it
- 54:42Speaker 14: do its thing. What I love about this is it's
- 54:47Speaker 14: better than Social Security.
- 54:49Speaker 1: It really is. Okay, so let's talk about this. And
- 54:53Speaker 1: I want him to pay very close attention to the
- 54:55Speaker 1: words he said, you can't touch it for eighteen years.
- 54:57Speaker 1: I am a huge believer in compound, in tryst in,
- 55:00Speaker 1: set forget it, in investment, and I wish way more
- 55:03Speaker 1: people would do it. And if it leads to more
- 55:06Speaker 1: general interests, and I think that that's fine. But but,
- 55:09Speaker 1: and I think this is very important. The key theory
- 55:12Speaker 1: behind this is that these accounts, which not only can
- 55:15Speaker 1: be given from the government, but that you yourself as a
- 55:18Speaker 1: family can invest in, will be transferred as custom to
- 55:23Speaker 1: total control account of this account at age eighteen. That's
- 55:27Speaker 1: where I don't know, if Crystal I start to get
- 55:29Speaker 1: a little bit scared. I actually looked into this when
- 55:31Speaker 1: my daughter was born and decided to instead put money
- 55:34Speaker 1: in the five twenty nine plan instead of something called
- 55:36Speaker 1: an UTMA. It's like, I'm not going to go into it. Basically,
- 55:38Speaker 1: it's a similar style account with very littable restrictions, but
- 55:41Speaker 1: the child gets total custody of set account at either
- 55:44Speaker 1: eighteen or twenty one, depending on the state that you
- 55:46Speaker 1: created in the issue with that account is they get
- 55:49Speaker 1: total control of this account. Now, everyone says, oh, you
- 55:51Speaker 1: should raise your child so that that's not going to
- 55:54Speaker 1: be a problem. Well, I mean, Crystal, it's just a
- 55:57Speaker 1: basic thing where I think, you know, even as I
- 55:58Speaker 1: am learning, there's only so much that you can do.
- 56:01Speaker 1: And also, I think my parents were great parents. If
- 56:03Speaker 1: you had given me fifty thousand dollars when I was
- 56:06Speaker 1: age of eighteen, I was an idiot, okay literally an
- 56:09Speaker 1: idiot well with a very underdeveloped brain. And I think
- 56:13Speaker 1: that that is where I'm starting to get a little
- 56:15Speaker 1: bit afraid. So some of my friends in the financial
- 56:18Speaker 1: industry have told me I'm freaking out too much. They're like, look,
- 56:22Speaker 1: it's much more like a retirement account, because if you
- 56:24Speaker 1: do pull it out before the age of retirement from
- 56:27Speaker 1: the Trump account, you're gonna have to pay taxes and penalties.
- 56:29Speaker 1: But do children who are age eighteen really think hard
- 56:32Speaker 1: about taxes and penalties or do they say a shitload
- 56:35Speaker 1: of free money, Like if you see fifty thousand dollars
- 56:37Speaker 1: and they're like, oh, but you're gonna have to pay
- 56:39Speaker 1: forty percent. They're like, oh, I don't care. I'll just
- 56:41Speaker 1: pull it out and spend it on whatever I want.
- 56:42Speaker 1: And if you, as a parent, can't necessarily do much
- 56:45Speaker 1: about it. So for me, I would like to see
- 56:48Speaker 1: government funded let's say five twenty nine plans with strict
- 56:52Speaker 1: things that you could take that money out of, for example,
- 56:55Speaker 1: either college education, college related types expenses, first time down payment,
- 57:00Speaker 1: but the rest of the money, the money basically should
- 57:03Speaker 1: be up to I think either the parent or should
- 57:05Speaker 1: be created in such a way to not just incentivize,
- 57:08Speaker 1: but to create strict control. There's a reason why if
- 57:11Speaker 1: you look at inherited wealth across the world, and even
- 57:14Speaker 1: the richest families in America today, they don't just give
- 57:17Speaker 1: trust fund accounts to eighteen year olds, and when they do,
- 57:19Speaker 1: it's usually a disaster. They write very strict instructions about
- 57:22Speaker 1: the type of things that money can and should be
- 57:24Speaker 1: spent on. And then let's say when you're age thirty
- 57:26Speaker 1: and you're much more mature and you're developed than maybe
- 57:29Speaker 1: you can have total control and spending over that account.
- 57:32Speaker 1: But that is my biggest fear is that this will
- 57:34Speaker 1: turns a well intentioned thing about the lessons of compound interests,
- 57:39Speaker 1: but unfortunately, because of the lack of financial literacy, is
- 57:42Speaker 1: that probably eighteen years from now, there will be a
- 57:44Speaker 1: huge number of people who will just take all the
- 57:47Speaker 1: money out taxes and penalties, and there's not enough of
- 57:50Speaker 1: an incentive or even really rules that are built in
- 57:54Speaker 1: to encourage and make sure that the money is spent
- 57:56Speaker 1: in a way that we as a society, since it
- 57:58Speaker 1: is tax payer money, is going to be spent again responsibly.
- 58:01Speaker 1: So yes, some of it's on the parents. Of course,
- 58:03Speaker 1: I believe in financial literacy and in education, but there
- 58:06Speaker 1: are reasons why people do not do this, and that's
- 58:10Speaker 1: the biggest worry that I have about this account.
- 58:13Speaker 2: So the question for me is also around you know,
- 58:17Speaker 2: we have finanite resources, we don't do a lot of
- 58:20Speaker 2: social spending, So what are the alternatives here and who
- 58:23Speaker 2: is this primarily going to benefit. The way this is
- 58:26Speaker 2: structured is the government gives you that first thousand dollars
- 58:30Speaker 2: and then you're on your own. So it is similar
- 58:32Speaker 2: to a five to twenty nine plan, where you know
- 58:34Speaker 2: it's tax advantage money. So you can put in what
- 58:37Speaker 2: is it, five thousand dollars a year, and so for
- 58:39Speaker 2: parents who have an extra five grand or ten grand
- 58:42Speaker 2: or fifteen grand, depending on how many kids they have,
- 58:45Speaker 2: they can put that in and that's a tremendous benefit
- 58:47Speaker 2: to them. So it's prenominantly going to benefit people who
- 58:52Speaker 2: are at least middle or upper middle or wealthy, same
- 58:56Speaker 2: as with five twenty nines. And that is that is
- 58:59Speaker 2: real spending. So there's no taxes being paid on this
- 59:02Speaker 2: tax advantage, and so that is real spending, and it's
- 59:05Speaker 2: going once again to benefit people who are already comparatively privileged.
- 59:09Speaker 2: So if you care about something like, you know, reducing inequality,
- 59:12Speaker 2: which I think even if you don't give a shit
- 59:14Speaker 2: about inequality from like a moral perspective, I think everyone
- 59:17Speaker 2: should really be very concerned about inequality from like a
- 59:21Speaker 2: society surviving perspective. If you care about that, this is
- 59:25Speaker 2: not going to do anything to solve that. In fact,
- 59:28Speaker 2: because of the structure of it, it could actually increase
- 59:31Speaker 2: that level of inequality. The other thing to point out is,
- 59:34Speaker 2: you know, even with quote unquote just one thousand dollars
- 59:38Speaker 2: going to all of all of these babies. That's still
- 59:41Speaker 2: a very expensive program that costs a lot of money.
- 59:44Speaker 2: There are a lot of other things that you could
- 59:46Speaker 2: do with that program, something like you know, universal childcare
- 59:49Speaker 2: that would have a more broad based benefit and would
- 59:53Speaker 2: go further to you know, helping to ease the burden
- 59:56Speaker 2: for people who need it the most, but still have
- 59:58Speaker 2: still be a universal program. So I have some issues
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: with it because of you know, the opportunity cost of
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: what this money could otherwise go to, and because of
- 1:00:06Speaker 2: who It ultimately ends up being a somewhat regressive program
- 1:00:10Speaker 2: because of the structure of it now again similar to
- 1:00:13Speaker 2: five twenty nine's which is for people who don't know,
- 1:00:16Speaker 2: that's this tax advantage college saving program you can put
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: money in, and again it's you know, tax advantage, and
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: so people who are upper middle class or better off
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: typically are investing in those and they're getting the benefit
- 1:00:27Speaker 2: from it. People who are poor and don't have that
- 1:00:29Speaker 2: extra cash obviously they're not benefiting from it. So there's that,
- 1:00:33Speaker 2: and then you know, on a broader ideological plane, this
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: gets to what I was talking about before, in terms
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: of the Trump administration's plan for dealing with the reality of.
- 1:00:45Speaker 5: An AI future.
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: In which people don't have jobs, where there's a massive
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: labor disruption and there are many fewer jobs, and you
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: have the world's first trillionaires, and you have this incredible
- 1:00:59Speaker 2: wealth and power, the likes of which we cannot even comprehend,
- 1:01:03Speaker 2: consolidated in the hands of a few. And their answer
- 1:01:06Speaker 2: to that is basically the stock market is, look, we're
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: gonna you know, we're going to keep inflating the stock
- 1:01:12Speaker 2: market and pushing this line goes up and up and
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: up as much as we possibly can, and so we're
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: going to give you some ways to increase your axis
- 1:01:20Speaker 2: and exposure. So you feel like as Nvidia, you know,
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: goes up, or as you know, Elon Musk's wealth or
- 1:01:27Speaker 2: whoever else, as their wealth skyrockets, you feel like at
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: least you were getting some piece of that. Now, is
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: that going to be adequate to overcome the fact that
- 1:01:36Speaker 2: you're going to have these massive labor disruptions, et cetera.
- 1:01:39Speaker 2: I think that's very unlikely. But that's the broader sort
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: of like ideological or policy scheme that I think that
- 1:01:45Speaker 2: these Trump accounts really fit into. And then the last things, Sorry,
- 1:01:48Speaker 2: I know, I'm going on for a long time, and
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: I thought a lot about this too. The last thing
- 1:01:52Speaker 2: is with Trump, you know, everything is about is about
- 1:01:54Speaker 2: the corruption and is about the like cronyism. You already
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: have a bunch of companies that have titled up to
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: the table, some of whom have you know, are facing
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: lawsuit DOJ lawsuits or regulatory action who are like, hey,
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: we love mister Trump, what a brilliant idea. You know,
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: we're going to donate some to these Trump accounts as well.
- 1:02:14Speaker 2: So it's yet another avenue for companies to curry favor
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: with Trump himself. Yeah, we know, hes Yeah, exactly, that's
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: exactly right. And you know, and there's still questions about like, well,
- 1:02:28Speaker 2: what are these going to be invested in. They're saying,
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: you know, high quality index funds. If so, that's relatively neutral,
- 1:02:32Speaker 2: but you could imagine them gaining the system with that
- 1:02:34Speaker 2: to prop up to be able to shovel government money
- 1:02:37Speaker 2: to their fronts and allies. I don't think anyone would
- 1:02:40Speaker 2: put that past them. So, you know, there's a lot
- 1:02:41Speaker 2: of questions of like direct cronyism and potential corruption here.
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: Well, there's a lot of problems with it, And this
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: is kind of what I'm getting at and this is
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: where you know, the libertarians always get mad at me
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: because they're like, oh, you don't believe in freedom of choice.
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: I'm like, well, there's a reason why the vast majority
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: of people with means don't just hand an eighteen year
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: old a shitload of money. It's because we generally have
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: to try and to like, what are the types of
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: things that we're trying to identivize? This is it gets
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: to your point. This is why I've also just ultimately
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: turned against this idea of UBI as well, because they're like, well,
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: for eighteen years. By the way, you know, if you
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: want to do the compound math, you know, for one
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: thousand dollars compounding depending on what it will come to,
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: it's like eighteen thousand dollars, which, again, if you withdraw
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: at age eighteen, after penalty and tax inflation adjusted, not
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: exactly a ton of money. Like yeah, maybe like how
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: much does an use cargo for these days? Like twenty
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: five thousand dollars? Right, and so okay, so you could
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: buy half of a used car, like great. I mean
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: what you're trying to get at also is that at
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: the same time, if you don't do anything about the
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: general cost of living, about housing, about the actual like
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: structural and let's say educational inflation. If a stock market
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: is going to return seven percent on average over here,
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: but healthcare inflation for education is going to be like
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: twenty five thirty percent, even a five twenty nine, you're
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: still losing money in the long run considering how much
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: the overall tuition. So it doesn't deal with any of
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: the cost structure. It's kind of a libertarian ideology, right,
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: And so it gets to this idea of like compounding interest,
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: which again is phenomenal and is great, and I think
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: people should take advantage, but also when it's taxpayer dollars,
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: we should also have somewhat of a say, not only
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: in the structure around us, in terms of the way
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: that the money is spent, and so just broadly, like
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: looking at all this, I'm going to take advantage of it,
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: all right. I'm not above taking free money from the government.
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: I definitely will take it, but it's not really something
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: I'm going to be like plowing a whole bunch of
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: money into. And the only real reason from one of
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: my friends who talks about this is that in some
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: ways it's a good workaround for rich because a lot
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: of rich people are obsessed with putting money in their kids'
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: wroth iras. And you can only put money into a
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: roth ira if your child is working, So people come
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: up with all kinds of elaborate schemes to put their
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: kids on payroll so that they can fund their roth ira.
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: He's like, well, you know, the big brain way to
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: do this is to like max out these Trump accounts
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: and then when your kid turns eighteen, you roll it
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: all in to a roth ira and they can become
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: retire with ten million. Now, I'm sure, you know, very
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: financially illiterate, wealthier households will take advantage of that. It
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: sounds like a good loophole. Remember, though, you have to
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: tell the eighteen year old and they have to agree
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: to this, which you may or may not, you know,
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: you know, I don't know that for sure. But in general,
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: like this stuff is really only used by twenty something
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: percent of households, and that is also kind of the
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: bigger problem that surrounds this entire thing. So that's your
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: you know, your diatribe here on the Trump account. I'm
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: much more of a fan of five twenty nine, of
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: funding five twenty nine, while by the way, simultaneously doing
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: something about the overall costs, making sure that it's highly
- 1:05:37Speaker 1: structurally incentivized towards down payments, towards things that are very
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: childcare expenses, let's say, or let's say that you know,
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: whenever you have a child, you can take money from
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: that as replacement income if you or your wife want
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: to stay home. Right, Like, these are the types of
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: things that if you put and set it in these
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: specific ways, then you can highly incentivize exactly the type
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: of behavior which we think is important instead of you know,
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: pumping money into whatever the S and P five hundred
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: stock is and then giving it to an eighteen year
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: old who's probably going to go blow it on something
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: incredibly stupid.
- 1:06:11Speaker 2: So well, all the other thing is it assumes line
- 1:06:14Speaker 2: goes up forever, and maybe it does.
- 1:06:17Speaker 5: We've kind of gotten used to that.
- 1:06:18Speaker 2: But it means that you're, you know, you're putting your
- 1:06:20Speaker 2: child's future in the hands of like the whims of
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: the market and investing Americans even more in this you know, uh,
- 1:06:26Speaker 2: rigged casino.
- 1:06:27Speaker 5: That is the stock market.
- 1:06:29Speaker 2: So that to your point about it being very ideological,
- 1:06:33Speaker 2: very libertarian, that is the philosophy that undergirds this, and
- 1:06:38Speaker 2: you know, we'll see, we'll see how that goes.
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, by the way, all that being said,
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: if you had a kid this year like me, take
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: the money, it's freemo.
- 1:06:46Speaker 5: Oh yeah, of course.
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: Yeah, take it car all right, open it and sentivize it.
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: Take the dollars because we paid too much in fucking
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: taxes to it. Not least, you know, get the crumbs
- 1:06:55Speaker 1: whenever they do occasionally.
- 1:06:57Speaker 5: Yeah, take that thousand dollars from Pallaineer.
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: I'm going to take my thousand bucks and I'm gonna
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: give it to her, and I'm gonna say, have some
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: fun when you're okay,