Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 155 - 11/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 155 - 11/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 155 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday. A new week begins as we kick off
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the month of November. And wouldn't you know what guys,
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we have a brand new sport to welcome back into our daily
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betting lives. That's right, one of my favorite
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sports to get down on, college hoops.
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College hoops is back today with over 100 games to choose from.
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And I'm going to give you one bet for college basketball here
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for tonight. And just know that college hoops
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is a much like other sports. I don't want to go too crazy too
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early. Let's get some information on
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these teams. You know, let's stick to our
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contrarian philosophies, looking at sharp line movement and
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system matches. But I'm also very excited
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because we can brush off our Ken Palm data analytics, which if
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you've never bet with an edge with Ken Palm, well, you're
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going to find out how to do it this year.
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Ken Palm is the best when it comes to to models and
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predictions in terms of kind of comparing what the odds makers
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are posting versus what Ken Palm's projections are listing.
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So we're going to use Ken Palm, which again, I think it's only
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20 bucks a yearly membership. I would argue one of the best
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deals you can get. And I Ken Pom's not paying me to
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say that. I've just been paying 20 bucks
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to Ken Pom for probably over a decade now and he's helped me
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win quite a few college basketball games.
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But also this is the first full season where we can also
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incorporate rhythm system edges to college basketball.
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So the college hoops rhythm project predictions and models
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are all live in the app. So of course, download the app
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if you haven't yet. Also, thank thank you to
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everyone who tuned into the live stream yesterday.
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Myself and James Santor had a couple good hits on the show and
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had a bunch of people that I recognize in the live stream.
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So as always, thank you for tuning in.
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But that's just a long winded answer of saying I'm excited for
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college hoops, But I just got one bet.
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If like if you're looking for 10 bets today, let's take it easy.
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Let's kind of kind of get back in the swing of things.
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Another thing I look at is like homecourt advantage.
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You see a lot of homes. Really my angle last year was
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money lining short home favorites like you open -1 at
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home, you get bet up to -2 -, 2 1/2.
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You start to see a lot of discrepancies here where the
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home team does a lot better. It's just easier to win at home
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in college and go on the road. So that's usually our go to.
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But we are going to combine rhythm.
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We're going to combine Ken Palm. I do have a play for you guys
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tonight. I'm just excited overall to have
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college hoops as now an option as we fill out our card each day
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in the betting market. But overall, thank you for
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college hoops returning. But we got a 5 pack today.
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I totally buried the lead. We got Monday Night Football.
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We got the Chiefs and the Bucks. I have two plays on the game,
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including a interesting take on the spread, a play on the total
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and a player prop. And then we're also going to add
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in a NBA bet because there is a buy law opportunity in terms of
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a total, which I'm focusing on later tonight.
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And I have one bet for you in the NHL.
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So we're going to talk about it all on episode 155 of the All
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Systems GOPOD powered by Rhythm. Now looking back to the weekend
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guys, hope everyone had a great weekend.
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I had a great time hanging out with the boys.
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Haven't seen my my buddies who I grew up with grew up in the same
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small hometown in Western Mass played sports together.
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They're all my best friends now People are married, we got kids.
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Things have changed, but we're lucky enough to get together at
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Bet MGM in Springfield. If you don't know about
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Massachusetts betting, there's only you can bet.
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Obviously online it's legal, but there's only three places to go
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to a sports book and hang out with your buddies and get food
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and drink and and get down on games.
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It's Bet MGM Springfield, Western Mass where it's Encore
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in Boston or Planters Park Casino, which is a little bit
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South of of of Boston here. But I had a great time with the
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boys. Looking back on Saturday, we had
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a great win in the UFC biting as our buddy Moreno came through
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for the team and had the whole whole group buzzing at the book
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for Moreno. Also had a great hit with South
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Carolina and college football member.
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We saw that line continue to fall in favor of South Carolina
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even though they were they were the contrarian play.
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So on Saturday, 2 and 2 -, 0.52 units.
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The two losses were about as frustrating as it gets because
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one of the losses was Penn State, you know, getting 3 1/2,
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getting down to three public, all of Ohio State, they had four
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chances to score 1st and goal from the one and they couldn't
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punch it in. So you're pathetic.
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Penn State, that was frustrating to me.
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And then Michigan. Michigan ended up losing by what
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was it, 21 points, but we had 14 1/2.
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And for whatever reason, Oregon, instead of just kneeling on the
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ball, ending the game, getting a 14 point win, we catch with the
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hook on Michigan, they decided to score another meaningless
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touchdown. So Dan laning in your little
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Oregon crew, that was pathetic, disgusting.
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I I would argue you're taunting the sports betting gods, but but
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just the sports gods in general. He could have just kneeled and
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ended the game, but he had to score that one more touchdown to
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screw us with a Michigan plus 14 half.
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So that was frustrating. But a good Sunday 3 and 1 + 1.67
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units got the Chargers under which stayed under that total of
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42 1/2 got the Rams and the Cardinals as dog to fave line
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moves. Only loser there was the Colts
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and man Joe Flacco, for some reason I thought you were good
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again, you're not very good. And Flacco made a bunch of
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mistakes. He had a bunch of opportunities
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to just dump it off and get a first down.
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Instead he forces it, gets picked, you know, ball balls
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gets deflected. So anyway, couldn't get the
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Colts. But either way guys pretty
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decent weekend. So so we can get it going here
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to start off week one in the month of November.
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So I want to start off with the big one tonight.
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Obviously the NFL wrapping U NFL week 9.
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Can you believe already week 9 before you know it'll be
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Thanksgiving anyway guys big matchup tonight Tampa Bay bucks
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Kansas City Chiefs. Let's set the stage.
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I'm going to tell you why I actually have a lean on the
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side, but I'm not playing it. I'm going to tell you my play on
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the total and I'll give you a player prop.
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So going in this one, the bucks 4 and 4 started off pretty good,
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but now they've lost three of their last four loss to the
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Falcons 3126 did not cover as a 1 1/2 point home dog fine by me
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at the Falcons money line there last week chiefs meanwhile, 7
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and O the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL just
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beat the Raiders 2720 but did not cover as a nine point Rd.
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favorite. So in terms of what we've seen
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in terms of this line movement, I will argue guys like I've been
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looking at lines, how they open, how they move for a very long
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time. I've been focusing and you know,
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lines are, I just think through lines as a data-driven better.
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You're always looking at the lines and I've been kind of in
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this situation, hosting a pod or writing about betting for over
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10 years now. This is one of those games where
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it was kind of hard to figure out what the opener was because
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some books open chiefs -7 1/2, that was DraftKings, Pinnacle
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had Chiefs opener -8 1/2, Circa had -9, Bet MGM had -9 1/2, and
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Super Book had -10 So this opener was all over the place.
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You had some books that were maybe too low at -7 1/2, some
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books that were too high maybe at 10.
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Currently, the one thing that hasn't changed is that the
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public is going Tampa Bay. So Tampa Bay is getting right
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now 60% of spread bets. But if you look at the line,
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it's kind of move kind of state, I would say liability in favor
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of Kansas City. Like my initial reaction here,
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guys was I entertained laying the points with Kansas City.
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That may shock you. I'm a dog better, but I don't
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like trendy dogs in Tampa Bay getting 60% of bets.
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That scares me. If you're going to back Tampa,
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and we have seen again, some of these seven, half, eight and a
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halfs get bet up to 9. I do see one book that's at 9
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1/2. So I'm kind of thinking, you
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know, whether you go off the 7 1/2 or the 10 opener because
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again, it was hard to figure out which one was kind of legit.
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Maybe that also tells you the odds makers just didn't really
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agree on what this line should be.
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Let's split it down the middle, 8 1/2, pretty much down the
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middle. We have seen it creep up a
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little bit even though Publix on bucks.
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So my kind of instinct instinct here is I kind of smell a trendy
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dog here with Tampa Bay, which means I don't want to play them.
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The thing you would like about the Chiefs, which I entertain
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the Chiefs is that they're only getting 41% of bets, but 60% of
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dollars low bets, higher dollars.
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Yeah, the much better defense. They've only given up 17 points
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a game versus 27 for the bucks. You would have a non conference
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favorite system match. So that lack of familiarity
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benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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I'm interested interested to see where we close with this game
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like we're sitting around 9. Do we get every book at up to 9
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1/2? If that's the case between now
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and kickoff, that's a great sign that the chiefs are are indeed
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that fade the trendy dog play. Does it get down to 8 1/2
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That'll lead you to believe that maybe some some late bucks money
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is coming in couple angles here as well.
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If you tell me like the bucks again, they're trendy.
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I I can't blame I'm a stubborn contrarian.
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I just can't go primetime dog getting 60% of bets.
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But Mahomes is only 44% against the spread when he's laying 6
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1/2 or more and road dogs getting 6 1/2 or more this year
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are 66% ATS. They're 21 and 11:00.
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So I think you can kind of like if you tell me like the bucks
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and you want to go off the opener of 10 yet has moved in
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their favor. I just don't like being with the
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public and it looks like, again, this late movement is going
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Kansas City. So I'm not touching the side
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here. If you put a gun in my head, I
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would actually lean Kansas City more than I would Tampa Bay.
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But here's my play. I'm going to go under, guys.
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I'm going under 45 1/2. I like this under for a couple
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of reasons. Let's start with the data, then
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we'll get to the weather. In terms of the data, 72% of
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bets are going over. Public says, hey, you know,
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Kansas City, even though they're kind of maybe not that high
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flying team that we think they are, they actually, they
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actually tend to play some of these lower scoring games.
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But still Mahomes, Kelsey Public says it's got to be points, it's
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got to be over. Bucks can score even though they
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have a couple injuries to their top wide receivers, Evans and
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Godwin. Also, their defense isn't great.
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So Public's just saying over open at 45 1/2.
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Public's playing the over, but it really hasn't moved at all.
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Some shops are putting out a 46 down to 45 1/2.
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Some books are juicing up the under a little bit.
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To me the fact that this line hasn't gone up to 464748 even
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though three out of four bets are going over again I smell a
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line freeze tells me the odds makers are taking position on
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this. Under unders can train and
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heavily back game only getting 28% of bets.
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John Hussey the lead ref is 54% to the under historically, but
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then also the weather. Now it was funny on the live
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stream yesterday, I had someone come in the chat and say, Josh,
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what are your windy unders? I'm like windy unders.
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They they must know. I love Wendy unders, but there
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were three of them yesterday and I believe they went three and O
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it was the patriots game under. It was I wrote it down.
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It was patriots under. It was the Cleveland under and
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then Green Bay and the Green Bay one really jumped out to you
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because it was rainy. It was windy.
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You know, obviously the there, you know, couldn't couldn't get
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a win there. If you like the dog with the
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with the Packers, there's like some late buyback on the
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Packers. But my point being is that
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weather is maybe something we really or definitely something
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we got to pay attention to moving forward.
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Once you turn the the calendar, the page from October to
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November, you get closer to the holidays.
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You know, it's going to get colder.
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If there's going to be more weather, whether it's, you know,
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snow, rain, precipitation, sleet, it's not going to be
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freezing tonight like at Arrowhead.
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It's going to be like in the low 60s, but around 7 mile per hour
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winds. Nothing crazy there, but it's
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going to be rainy. And the rain to me is important
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if you'll get one place to go to get good weather is Roto
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Grinders. If you if you just Google Roto
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Grinders NFL weather and the link is rotogrinders.com/weather
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slot slash NFL. Kevin Roth, who I I've come kind
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of come come across with in the betting community before, but
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he's a really good guy. He does really well at looking
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at the weather. He's kind of created that niche.
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Let me read to you what he's writing about for this game.
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Tampa KC quote Scattered downpours around Kansas City
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from late afternoon through the evening means a good chance of
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in game rain for Monday Night Football.
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Worth noting that this is very different from our set up in
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Green Bay yesterday, which is steady rain.
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Steady rain all game long and KC will at times see a true deluge,
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potentially even a lightning delay, but could also see
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periods of dry weather during the game.
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It looks likely to be pouring early game with on and off
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downpours possible throughout the remainder of the game.
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I consider it a bump down to the passing offenses with a game
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that might be more run centric that that what we otherwise seen
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a clear weather game. So I butchered the end there.
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But anyway, weather could be a factor.
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So if it's rainy, little bit of wind, you know, totals got a
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line freeze. I'm like in the under here guys,
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I'm going to go under 45 1/2 prime time unders.
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By the way, they are 59% since 2019.
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They've started off not great this year, but you actually won
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your last two prime time unders. So that's my bet again, I think
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you can make cases for possibly both sides on the spread.
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I would lean KC. It looks like a fade the trendy
12:55
dog, but I feel more confident in this total.
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Hopefully going under, especially with, you know,
13:00
chiefs team that maybe runs the ball, you know, tries to get out
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of here with a win. The the box Obviously have some
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issues with wide receiver injuries.
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Add it all up. I'm going under guys, give me
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the KC under 45 1/2. That's my one bet tonight.
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Actually I have two. I lied my second player prop, a
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player prop game bet for this game.
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I'm going to go Kareem Hunt over 63 1/2 rushing yards now. 63 1/2
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is available at FanDuel right now.
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Other books like Fanatics, Caesar's, they're closer like 65
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1/2. So as always, multiple outs,
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shop around something. We always preach on the pod, but
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I got over 63 1/2 and the first thing I notice is that we have a
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decent rhythm edge. Rhythm is predicting 67.9
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rushing yards. So not huge, but you know, like
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a four point gap there, 4 yard gap I should say.
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But this to me is not just a rhythm play.
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But I'm thinking the game script could benefit Kareem Hunt.
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Now he's gone over this number in three of his first four games
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since he joined the Chiefs, in his only home game at Kansas
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City since joining the Chiefs or rejoining was with him back in
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the day. But he had 102 yards against the
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Saints, 27 carries. Tampa, by the way, is a really
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bad rushing defense. They're giving up 131 rushing
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yards a game this season. That's 19th in the NFL.
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But their last three games are giving up 151 on the ground,
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fourth worst in the NFL. They got rolled by, remember
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Derrick Henry giving up to 44 to the Ravens.
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They gave up 129 last week to the Falcons.
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And I'm thinking the weather, how could that play an issue?
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Well, if it's going to be rainy and gross, maybe you don't throw
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the balls as accurately or maybe you don't lean on the passing
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game. You learn more in terms of
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running the ball to protect against the elements.
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And then also if the Chiefs are up and they're trying to, you
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know, run the clock out on this one, maybe you just rushed the
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ball quite a bit. Fourth quarter, get out of there
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with a win. So I think the game script and
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the weather is a benefit to Cream Hunt.
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We have a little bit of a rhythm edge.
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So I'm going to go Cream Hunt over 63 1/2 rushing yards along
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with the under 45 1/2. Those are my two bets for Monday
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Night Football. Let's keep on cruising.
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Next one for you. Let's go to the NHL.
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Let's bang this one out right here.
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Only two games in the NHL tonight, but I found a a decent
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system match and line move on the New Jersey Devils.
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I don't know what it is about the Devils.
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I feel like I bet them a lot. Sometimes they come through for
15:19
me, sometimes they don't. But I like the Devils here
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tonight for a couple reasons. One, really good line movement
15:24
toward New Jersey. It's an 830 game there at
15:26
Edmonton. This was a pick em game as an
15:28
opener. It was -110 both sides.
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Now you're seeing Devils up to -125 -, 130.
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So we've seen the line only go one way.
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Again, open out of pick em. It's been all Devil's money
15:38
coming in at DraftKings right now, only 52% of bets, but 79%
15:44
of dollars are on the under. So that low bets, higher
15:47
dollars, half the tickets, almost 8 out of 10 of the
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dollars. That tells me we're going with
15:52
the line move. So smart money here going with
15:54
the Devil's. It's also a big rest first tired
15:56
system match because if you look at the devils, they've been off
15:59
since the 1st of November and you look at the Oilers, they
16:03
played last night. So it's second leg of a
16:05
back-to-back. If you look at that spot
16:08
favorite versus team on the second leg of a back-to-back,
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it's 18 and eight this year. 69 percent, 6% RO I I have another
16:15
system here. Rested Rd. favorite just in
16:17
general, if you're getting at least two days off between your
16:19
last game in this game, 63% this season.
16:23
And then this is another system that we like Rd. favorite off a
16:25
loss opponent off a win because the devil's just lost to Calgary
16:29
and the Oilers just beat Calgary.
16:31
So let's kind of go the other way.
16:32
That rested Rd. that road favorite off a loss opponent off
16:35
a win. That's 10 and two this year, 83%
16:38
it's 70% since 2023. Also, I kind of like the
16:41
schedule spot because if you look at kind of the way we're
16:45
going into this, you have the Devils on the third game of a
16:48
road trip. So you're kind of in the middle
16:50
of it, dialed in on the road. Sometimes you get closer to your
16:52
teammates, sometimes you play well.
16:54
Oilers are playing their first home game after a 5 game road
16:57
trip. So typically your first game
16:59
back, you know you're glad to be in your own bed.
17:01
Maybe you let your guard down, maybe you got people hitting you
17:04
up for tickets. There's a lot of distractions.
17:06
Typically you want to fade the teams on the 1st home game after
17:09
a long road trip. So hopefully that's a benefit to
17:12
the Devils. Offensively, 3.6 goals a game
17:15
versus 2.6 defensively, Devils giving up three versus 3.2.
17:20
Did I mention no Conor McDavid? If you notice Conor McDavid, he
17:23
got hurt, he's going to be out of it, so don't have to worry
17:25
about him. And then also special teams
17:28
power play is 29% for the Devils versus only 15% for Edmonton and
17:33
PK killing it 83% versus 62%. So schedule angle here, a good
17:40
sharp line move, good bet split, good system matches.
17:42
I'm going Devils guys, shop around.
17:44
I got the Devils at -125 next one for you.
17:49
I have a very interesting buy low over for you guys in the
17:52
NBA. Now.
17:53
It's a huge NBA slate, 15 games tonight.
17:57
So let's see if we can focus on a late game here, the Spurs and
18:01
the Clippers. This one caught my eye because
18:03
I'm not going to call this a sharp bet because in my you
18:07
know, definition of sharp, you need one of a few things.
18:09
You need a steam move, all big movement in your favor.
18:12
You need a reverse line move. You need a 5050 line move.
18:16
You need a low bets, higher dollars bet split.
18:18
You're really not getting that with this game.
18:19
Spurs Clippers, but you are taking advantage, hopefully of a
18:23
huge buy low play to take the over now the spurs Clippers,
18:27
which hopefully I've never seen the into it Dome, the new Steve
18:30
Ballmer play. So hopefully when I watch this
18:33
game later tonight, which I want to say it's on.
18:37
I thought it was on. Maybe it's not.
18:41
I thought it was on the NBA network anyway.
18:43
I got to find a way to watch this game.
18:44
But that being said, I like the over here.
18:47
This total open guys is high as two 19218 1/2 and it's come
18:53
absolutely crashing down South spurs at Clippers two 19218 half
18:58
Now it's all the way down to 214 1/2.
19:01
So let me ask you this if a total opens at two 19218 1/2 and
19:06
it's all the way down to 214 1/2.
19:08
I think it's pretty obvious that under money came in a lot of
19:11
sharp under money. But and I was also looking for
19:14
an injury like his one, but Yama out.
19:16
I didn't see anything in terms of an injury.
19:18
So it looks like maybe it's just not injury related.
19:21
It's just a lot of smart money hit that under.
19:24
But here's the thing. If you are on the under, which
19:27
you would because this line is tanking, but what if sharps got
19:30
under 219, under 218, under 217. And now if we're going under, we
19:35
got to get the worst of it. Now maybe it's sails under and
19:38
it doesn't even come close. But if it were to land on 2/16
19:42
to 17, that means the the early sharps, you bet the under very
19:46
early will cash and be happy and make money.
19:48
And it means that we're getting the worst of it.
19:50
So it could technically go over even though the smart early
19:53
money hit that under, if that makes sense.
19:55
So I'm thinking let's just bottom out, buy low over.
20:00
I got the over 214 F guys. I'm going to take this bottom
20:03
water number, bottom mark or lower water number, whatever you
20:06
want to call it and go over to me.
20:08
This is not sharp, but it's a value play.
20:11
When you look at a system at you're a low total over when the
20:13
total is 217 or less, take the over.
20:16
It's 5 and over. This year it's 86 and 6159
20:20
percent, 12% ROI. The last two years we do have a
20:24
bunch of under referees, Natalie Sago, Sheree Mitchell and James
20:28
capers all around 51 to 54% to the over.
20:32
We also have a very short spread.
20:34
You know Clippers are only favored by 3 1/2 or 4 here.
20:36
So maybe a competitive game, but here's what made me even more
20:40
excited to play this over. Pretty good rhythm system
20:43
matches rhythm. I have two models on this game.
20:45
The first one says Spurs Clippers should be around 217.7
20:50
and the other one says it should be around 218.4.
20:54
So if we're now bottom, you know, low watermark taking the
20:57
over rhythms got a game around 2/17 2:18.
21:00
If that's true, even let's not even be that, you know,
21:04
aggressive. What if it's, you know, 2/16
21:06
2:15 we would still cash that over.
21:09
So again, I think when you're betting sports, you got to know
21:11
why you're betting something, whether I'm betting it because
21:14
of a sharp move or a system match or whatever the case may
21:17
be. This one no go into a we're not
21:20
really on the sharp side. Again, the sharp money was very
21:23
early on the under, but one thing we are taking advantage of
21:26
hopefully is a value play where it's moved so much downward that
21:30
it's again providing an opportunity to go the other way.
21:32
So that's what I'm going to do. Whether you want to join or tail
21:36
or you disagree completely, that's totally cool as well.
21:38
But I'm going to go Clippers and Spurs late night tonight, 10:30
21:42
PM over bi lo over 214 1/2 Now to finish up the pod.
21:49
Welcome back college basketball. Now there are 1,000,000 games
21:53
today. I'm actually looking at my car
21:55
right now. There's there's 112.
21:57
That's what my that's what my card says here.
21:59
So when we are rocking and rolling, you know, a month from
22:03
now when it comes to college hoops and we got a lot of date
22:06
on these teams. We may have a lot of bets on a
22:07
night like tonight. But for me, the season's brand
22:10
new. I don't want to, you know,
22:12
overextend myself. There is a lot of volatility
22:14
when you start a new season. So I'm looking at, hey, let's
22:18
just, you know, make one bet where we feel like we have an
22:20
edge. Let's just, you know, one kind
22:22
of, you know, not a conservative approach, maybe you could call
22:24
it that, but hopefully a selective or strategic approach.
22:28
So I went to my live odds page. I filtered all the games by
22:32
ticket count, looking at the most heavily bet games of the
22:34
night. And I focused on right now, the
22:36
second most heavily bet game of the night.
22:38
First one is Baylor, Gonzaga, but the second one, it may end
22:41
up being more heavily bet Ohio State and Texas.
22:45
Now this one's interesting for a couple reasons right off the bat
22:48
with all these games tonight and there's a lot of games, you
22:50
know, add a game extra games or you know, games that are really
22:55
low key, which I do like to target those ones.
22:58
But this one is this is one that's going to be heavily bet
23:01
people are focusing on this one. And the first thing I noticed
23:04
focusing on this matchup is that everyone is going Texas.
23:07
Now let me take a step back because one thing I wanted to
23:10
mention, I got to find my my page here for college
23:16
basketball. Let me just pull it up.
23:19
There we go. Bear with me.
23:22
Let's see. This is probably terrible.
23:25
I should probably pause the pod. Let me find it for you.
23:30
Anyway, I couldn't find it, but I think my notes are correct.
23:33
This game, late game, 10:00 tonight, it's going to be played
23:36
at the Hall of Fame or the it's called the Hall of Fame series
23:39
in Las Vegas. You know, like all these
23:41
different classics that Maui Invitational, yada, yada, yada.
23:43
But anyway, it's at T-Mobile in Vegas.
23:45
It's a neutral court and I noticed that everyone is playing
23:49
Texas. Texas is getting currently 79%
23:53
of spread bets. Texas open this game, a very
23:56
short favorite over Ohio State. They open around a 2 1/2 or 3
23:59
point neutral site favorite and everyone's playing Texas nearly
24:03
80%. But guys, the lines going to
24:06
Ohio State. I noticed some smart money on
24:08
Ohio State. They open again getting plus 3 +
24:11
2 1/2. Now you are down to 2 and I see
24:13
one shop, maybe even down to 1 1/2.
24:15
So it's been pretty much one way movement in favor of the
24:18
Buckeyes, even though everyone's playing Texas.
24:21
So I was right off the bat an indicator to me that hey, we got
24:24
it. We got to maybe think about Ohio
24:25
State here. It's a heavily bet game.
24:28
It's a neutral site. So again, you don't have like
24:30
homecourt either way. But the lines going to Ohio
24:33
State, even though Texas is the very popular bet.
24:36
So we're contrarian in a heavily bet game.
24:39
We are with some sharp reverse line movement.
24:42
Now I got plus 2 1/2 Ohio State. It's still available at Bet MGM
24:46
if you shop around and find it. But the other thing I like about
24:48
this one is unranked versus ranked because Texas comes in
24:52
19th in the country. Ohio State is unranked.
24:54
And that's really why I think the public who doesn't know
24:57
anything yet about any of these teams like any of us do, but
24:59
they just say big game. I want to play it.
25:01
Texas is ranked, It's a short number.
25:03
Play Texas all day. That's like a 2 second handicap.
25:06
But as you know, in college football, we like going unranked
25:09
first ranked, buying low, hopefully taking advantage of
25:12
situations like this. The other angle here is Ken
25:15
Palm, our buddy Ken Palm, he has Texas winning by one point.
25:20
So if we're getting a 2 1/2 or A2, Ken Palm's got a one point
25:23
game. That's actual value right there.
25:25
And also, if you take advantage or, you know, look at kind of
25:28
the way Ken Palm ranks these teams, you know, from the AP
25:31
poll, our coach's poll, you know, the regular one, Texas is
25:34
19th, Ohio State's unranked. But according to Ken Palm, Texas
25:38
is 18th, Ohio State is 30th. So it's not like, you know, the
25:43
gap isn't as big as maybe it appears at first glance at
25:46
least. So extremely heavily back,
25:48
heavily back game. Everyone on Texas Lions going
25:50
back to Ohio State. Ken Palm's got a one point game.
25:52
I'm going to take a shot here on the Buckeyes.
25:55
Guys, give me Buckeyes plus 2 1/2.
25:59
That about does it for episode 155 of the All Systems Go Sports
26:02
Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
26:04
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
26:07
first start by asking a favor of you.
26:09
Could you please do me a solid? Can you make my day guys?
26:12
It means so much to me. You listen to the pod each day
26:14
you tune in, take the time out of your busy lives to talk some
26:17
sharp betting plays with me. But first, can I please ask you
26:20
to give this podcast a five star review.
26:23
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, go to rate and
26:25
review, give it the five stars. It would mean a lot to me.
26:28
Help us to grow the pod. The more likes, the more five
26:31
star reviews, you know, the more eyeballs, the more the more
26:33
traction we gain. So if you could do that, it
26:36
would mean a lot to me. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
26:38
and you really like the data-driven breakdowns, looking
26:41
at data line movement, where's the money going?
26:44
You know, taking advantage of a a contrarian approach.
26:47
Maybe you never knew this kind of approach to betting existed
26:49
and now you've incorporated a thing, a few things about it.
26:52
Hopefully you're seeing some success.
26:54
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you
26:56
want to let me know you appreciate the pod each day,
26:59
then go buy my book. Nothing will make me happier
27:01
other than a five star view for the pod.
27:03
But for you guys to buy my book because it's got everything I've
27:06
learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they
27:08
move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how
27:11
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
27:13
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
27:16
the everything guide to sports betting.
27:18
So pick one up for you or a friend or a buddy or a colleague
27:22
or someone who's newly into betting and has no clue how to
27:25
do it, maybe could offer them this philosophy, the data-driven
27:28
philosophy. But pick up the book, bring it
27:31
to the book, the sports book that is.
27:32
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a beer or a ginger
27:35
ale and I'll sweat some games together.
27:37
Next, have you taken advantage of your 7 day free trial of
27:40
Juice Reel or Rhythm? Rhythm.
27:41
We're making a big push as I'm a partner with Rhythm, a big push
27:46
to download the app today because there's so many college
27:48
games. All the college predictions are
27:50
live in the rhythm app. So if you've been waiting to
27:52
join Rhythm, you love college hoops, go download the app.
27:55
I tweeted about it. You can also click the custom
27:57
links and the bio description of the this podcast.
28:00
But rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
28:02
for game bets and player props. And then of course, Juice Reel
28:05
and other great sports book that I team up or sports betting app
28:09
that I team up with is also a great time to download because
28:12
you will get the robo Jackson best bet picks that come out at
28:15
noon each day. You get the sharp mush plays,
28:17
giving you the indicators of where the smart money's at for
28:19
each game where you can bet with the you know, the good batters
28:22
and bet against the bad batters. And then also you can take
28:26
advantage of syncing up your sports books, getting a report
28:29
card of your action arbitrage. I don't know if I mentioned
28:32
that, but there's so many great features of the juicer lab and
28:35
you can take advantage of them all with a 7 day free trial
28:38
again by clicking that custom link and the bio description of
28:40
the podcast. So that about does to everybody,
28:43
hope you had a great weekend and hopefully we can kick off our
28:47
week here as we officially unveil the month of November,
28:51
hopefully on a hot note. You know, the holidays are
28:53
coming when like your, your your sister and your mom are like are
28:56
starting to talk about Thanksgiving.
28:58
We're trying to figure out like, hey, are we going to mom's
29:00
house? Am I going to host it this year?
29:02
You know, you start talking holidays, you know, you know,
29:04
the year's winding down. But anyway, guys, this is a part
29:07
of the pod here wrapping things up where I first tell you
29:10
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
29:13
Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
29:15
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
29:18
Park Casino R.E.M. Jam Springfield and my neck of
29:21
the woods in Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true
29:24
grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners,
29:27
where the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
29:29
Her sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
29:32
swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
29:33
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
29:36
after this weekend. You're going to show me a
29:38
Brandon Moreno biting winning ticket, a South Carolina ticket,
29:44
Penn State, Michigan. I honestly still can't get over.
29:47
Me and all my boys had Michigan plus 14F and we gasped when they
29:50
decided to score meaningless meaninglessly instead of ending
29:53
the game. But also show me a Chargers
29:56
under ticket, Rams ticket, Cardinals ticket.
29:58
Guess what guys? First one's on me, next one's on
30:00
you. Then we'll post about the book
30:02
and sweat some sharp contrarian plays together.
30:04
So that about does it everyone as always, remember the the
30:09
guiding philosophy, the mantra, whether we had a great weekend
30:12
or a bad weekend, whether we're up, whether we're down, whether
30:15
we're fighting for a win or we feel invincible.
30:18
Again, that's part of sports betting.
30:19
There's ups and downs that come with it.
30:21
But here's the thing, even though there's no such thing as
30:24
a locker guarantee, I can almost assure you that if you stick to
30:28
this data-driven model, you look at the way the lines are moving.
30:31
You take advantage of situations where you are first against the
30:35
public, but also with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
30:39
parlays, get that closing line value.
30:41
We can be with the sharps over the long term.
30:43
Are they going to lose here and there?
30:44
Of course, no one's invincible, but the wise guys are going to
30:47
win 55 to 60% of the time. But remember, our magic number
30:51
is 52.38%, so all we got to do to beat the juice and become
30:54
profitable. So let's stick to the model,
30:56
stick to the blueprint, make bets with our head and not our
30:59
heart. We can do that.
31:01
I'm I'm pretty optimistic about the future with us as as sports
31:04
betting ticket cashers. How about that?
31:06
But anyway, guys, enjoy your Monday night.
31:08
We got a 5 pack here. Can we find a way to get three
31:10
or more? That's the goal and we'll be
31:12
right back at it tomorrow for episode 156 of the all systems
31:16
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
31:19
Good luck everybody, have a great Monday night.