Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 90: Get Ready for Heat Waves and Timely Rains This Summer with Gary Lezak

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90: Get Ready for Heat Waves and Timely Rains This Summer with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  Happy Friday. Welcome to another episode of
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  the Cattle USA Daily Podcast. Today we are switching it up a
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  little bit for you guys and instead of bringing you guys
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  your weather report with Gary Lezak and the Weather 2020 team
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  on Mondays, we are going to start bringing them to you on
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  Fridays. We've switched up our recording
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  schedule a little bit so but we still want to keep the
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  information we're bringing you extremely timely.
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  So we're recording these on Wednesdays, releasing them on
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  Fridays now. So we're bringing you guys that
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  Friday energy on Fridays now instead of every time we get on
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  on a Monday. Good morning, you're hearing us
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  scream happy Friday. Now it's actually happy Friday
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  for all of you guys listening to this.
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  So without further ado, let's go ahead and jump into this episode
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  with Gary where we are talking all things summer weather and
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  what we plan on seeing in the next few months.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA daily. Podcast your go to source for
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  the latest. Livestock markets, industry
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  insights, and the updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture. Here to keep you informed.
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  And connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome to the podcast.
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  We are, we're switching it up on everyone.
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  We're not going to be starting out every podcast saying Happy
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  Friday because now we're recording on Wednesdays, but
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  they're going to come to people on Fridays now.
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  Are we going to come on Friday? We're.
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  Going to come on Fridays. These are going to be Friday
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  episodes now. That is amazing.
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  So Friday mornings. So that's great because we
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  always feel like we're Fridays anyways, and now we'll really
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  feel like Wednesdays are Fridays and then we'll be confused on
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  Thursday. I thought it was Friday already.
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  Yes, absolutely I am. I'm so excited about it.
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  It just works out great because, you know, then there's less
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  opportunities for Lauren to be taking the podcast on the road
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  like. A crazy crazy.
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  Summer coming up. The last five podcasts, it's
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  like Colorado, then you're in Italy, and then you're in
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  Antarctica. It's like every week you're in
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  some other Ford place. Last week you were in a car in
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  the middle of who knows where. Pretty much pretty much how the
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  rest of my summer looks as well. So this works out best for
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  everyone. I get to sit here and drink one
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  morning tea. We just get to start our start
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  our midweek off on a great note with one.
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  Another beautiful. And it's bring all the energy to
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  everyone on their Friday morning.
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  Excellent. I'm so excited.
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  Well, the weather, what's happening right now, what is hot
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  in the world is going on with the weather in the world.
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  Well, a week from when this airs next Friday is the first day of
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  summer. So I've been trying to explain
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  to people that meteorological summer is a fallacy.
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  It doesn't exist. It doesn't exist.
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  It's not. Made-up a lot of things in this
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  world to get made-up, and then you believe it.
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  So there's something to it, though.
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  You have December, January, and February that are winter months,
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  and you have March, April, May that are spring months, and you
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  have June, July, August that are the summer months.
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  And then September, October, November, or the fall months.
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  That's meteorological seasons, but I don't look at it that way
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  and I'm a meteorologist. So summer begins on the solstice
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  and that's June the 20th, a week from when you're listening to
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  this. And it's coming up on Friday,
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  next Friday. So summer will begin and it
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  looks like it's going to start heating up significantly.
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  The weather pattern continues to cycle, per the LRC.
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  So what we've just had many crops got planted and had just
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  enough rain and they're starting to do fairly well to have a
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  bumper crop and have corn and soybean process prices actually
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  drop because there's so much corn and soybeans out there.
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  You have to have timely rains. It's not going to be perfect in
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  some areas. In fact, some crops may overall
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  think the crops will succeed and be successful in many areas, but
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  it's still going to be a struggle in some.
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  What's happening now? We just had the outbreak, severe
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  weather outbreak, part of the pattern cycle through a few days
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  ago and there was severe weather across Texas, Oklahoma, and they
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  had a level 4 out of five risk that was right on schedule.
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  Remember, this year's weather pattern is cycling about every
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  six weeks. Just because summer is coming
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  doesn't mean the pattern is stopping.
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  It is continuing to cycle all the way to next September and
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  then the pattern continues to cycle in October, November and
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  all the way through the next year and the year after that.
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  But it transitions in October to a different cycle.
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  I get probably won't be six weeks long next year might be 7
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  weeks or 8 weeks or 7 1/2 weeks. We'll go over that as we go into
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  next fall. But just now the pattern is
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  still cycling regularly. So we had the severe weather
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  outbreak. There was severe weather in
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  October in this part of the pattern.
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  November 16th, the 20th, 40 days later, six weeks later, December
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  28th, we had an outbreak of severe weather, a big one in the
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  winter. And then there were like 100
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  tornadoes and on December 28th, then February there was a few
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  tornadoes right on cycle on the sick.
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  Then the next cycle, March 14th, the 7th day, the deadly tornado
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  outbreak. And then there was more severe
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  weather with tornadoes at the end of April and just now in
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  June, sometimes in June and April they're worse than they
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  are during the winter. This year the worst ones are
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  were actually December and March.
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  So that part of the pattern happened.
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  These remember that date, December 28th, that part of part
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  of cycle. So what happens a week after
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  December 28th? What is going to happen next
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  week early in the week? Blizzard part of the pattern.
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  All right, that is actually next in line.
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  This is what the LRC is all about, no matter where you live.
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  For Kansas City and for Kansas and for the southern Central
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  Plains, it's the Blizzard part of the pattern.
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  For Chicago, it might be some other part of the pattern.
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  For New York, it might be another part of the pattern.
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  For London, England, it might be the cool, wet part of the
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  pattern. For them.
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  You never know that cycles back through.
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  But for us, the Blizzard part of the pattern is due early next
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  week, and the models have that system that I'm tracking right
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  on schedule. But it's going to be the summer
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  version. Well, it's still late spring
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  version. The late spring version because
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  summer begins on Friday. So are you following me?
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  Isn't that amazing? Yes, yes, that's so cool.
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  So when it's the summer or late spring version, that's wet,
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  right? Like we're getting rain and sort
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  of snow. That's how that works.
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  There will be organized thunderstorms with that Blizzard
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  part of the pattern. Yeah, but it's going to be the
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  June version. So how is that going to be?
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  There's not going to be any Blizzard.
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  So you can, I can call it the Blizzard part of the pattern.
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  And then people go, you're crazy when it's just raining and it's
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  80° outside. So.
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  But it is that part of the pattern.
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  Now, what happens after that is remember the blue sky part of
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  the pattern? Remember I talked about that,
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  that jog your memory. That is what comes at the end of
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  June. We had three or four days where
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  it was completely blue sky. Don't be shocked, June 25th, the
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  30th, that's when the blue sky part of the pattern returns.
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  So this is what's going on. So what what I wish it would
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  mean. And sometimes in my brain, I
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  will try to make it happen. I can't make it rain on your
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  cornfield. I can't make it rain on your
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  dairy farm. I wish I could.
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  I know the patterns going to return and the forecasts that we
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  make are going to be accurate at a high enough accuracy level
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  where you can use this data from the LRC model.
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  But I can't get them all right. I wish I could.
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  I wish I controlled the weather. And so I put a lot of pressure
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  on myself. I don't like it when we're
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  wrong, but when we're right now, 60 percent, 70% of the time I
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  feel good about that, even though I know that means 30% of
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  the time I have to hear from people saying you said there'd
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  be a storm and where is it I go, It's there.
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  It just happened to go one state north of you.
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  Exactly. We're on the verge of summer.
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  Summer is summer's knocking. The correct version of summer
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  where it actually starts at the summer solstice is knocking at
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  least, even though we've maybe been feeling it here in Kansas
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  for the past week. And it's a little it's a little
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  warm today. It's it's in the 90s today and
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  it's heating up out there, so it may feel like summer.
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  We're not there yet. What are we looking like for
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  summer weather, Heat waves, all of the things that go along with
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  summer weather? We don't think there's going to
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  be any major long duration heat wave this summer.
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  Even Texas has gotten wetter and wetter.
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  So you have Texas and Oklahoma, Kansas that are green.
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  Everything is green now. Usually the hottest summers it's
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  already brown and it's already dry and it's already hot in
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  Texas, in Dallas that has not happened yet.
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  So there will be shorter duration potential heat waves,
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  three days to five days. One of those with the blue sky
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  part of the pattern later this month, another when that returns
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  again in August. And then between June 10th and
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  20th, there's a good chance of a three to seven day stretch of
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  heat. But before the heat and after
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  the heat, there's going to be opportunities for some rain and
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  a little bit cooler weather. But just know there's going to
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  be some short term heat stress on the crops, some disease
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  environments developing out there.
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  For some of the crops you have to use some pesticides probably.
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  And then just know that there's going to be some issues like
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  that. But I'm still expecting some
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  timely rain in the summer. In July and August.
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  The corn needs like 2 inches of rain per week or at least a good
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  week. Right when when the seeds are
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  fermenting is like now is when we need rain.
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  So 2 inches per week is about 8 inches per month.
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  And places don't average that much rain.
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  So you need above average rain to have that much rain.
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  But then you end up with too much rain sometimes if you get
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  above average, right? So we're going to be near
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  average to below average across parts of Iowa and Nebraska.
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  Very, very good information to know.
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  Any other highs, lows, things that we need to talk about in
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  the weather this week? Nothing really significant.
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  Just know that we're always monitoring the weather pattern.
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  The pattern is right on cycle. We are sharing a secret with all
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  of you with the crystal ball of the LRC.
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  Yes, we know what the weather pattern is going to look like in
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  July and August, but that doesn't mean we can predict
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  perfectly. The weather pattern is going to
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  cycle through and we'll do our best at predicting it and our
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  model does pretty good and it's only going to get better in the
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  next few years. Yes, absolutely.
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  And we do have that exclusive Cattle USA link for the Weather
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  2020 dashboard for you guys down in the show notes where you can
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  go check that out. Check out the Global Predictor,
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  get that app on your phones. It's literally $5 a month and it
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  will save you a lot of stress, especially as you're planning
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  those fall vacations, things like that coming up.
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  It will save you a lot of headache and stress.
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  And it's just a great app to have.
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  And so we've got all of that information linked on in the
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  show notes for you guys where you can go check it out.
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  See just Gary's mastermind of life, the inside of his brain
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  put out into fruition with the Weather 2020 dashboard and
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  everything that it has to offer on their team.
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  And we're just so grateful for their partnership coming on here
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  with the Cattle USA podcast and sharing all of this with you
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  guys every single week. So, Gary, thank you for your
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  time as as always. You're welcome to remember the
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  Global Predictor goes through December 10th right now, so
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  pretty soon it's going to go all the way to Christmas here in a
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  week or two. Wow, you guys can maybe look at
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  the global predictor and see if we're going to have a white
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  Christmas now, or at least a white around Christmas.
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  That's fine with me. So Gary loves it.
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  He moved to the mountains for a reason and ditched us here in
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  Kansas. But you know, we've had a pretty
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  white Christmas for the past few years here in Kansas too.
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  So we're definitely in that string as well.
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  So as always, Gary, thank you for your time and to all of you
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  listeners out there, make sure you like subscribe rate review,
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  go check out those show notes, get all of that information and
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  the Weather 2020 dashboard and we'll see y'all tomorrow.
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  Not tomorrow, This is coming out on Friday.
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  We will see you on Monday on another episode of the Cattle
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  USA Daily Podcast. Have a good one y'all.