Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Extreme Volatility Corn, Wheat, Soybeans & Cattle

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Extreme Volatility Corn, Wheat, Soybeans & Cattle · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Good Sunday afternoon, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Time Gersafi, AgBull Media, EggBull Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: The markets are open.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: This is a late recording of Wees Meyer's perspectives.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: We're not going to waste your time, and we appreciate you coming here.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: We have a lot of important stuff to talk about.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: And while we're building the show, some breaking news happened.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: So let's get right into it.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Good looking and smart, not something you usually see in DC.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: My man, I like that shirt, brother.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Hey yeah, and they all fit, and I'm raring to go.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: I will say, for the listeners and the viewers, I was cranking out copy all day today in what we call curtain raisers on stories that will develop tomorrow that we're going to talk about.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: But we have expanded details on agbolmedia.com on a number of items.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure you call them up.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: They don't even need to put the media, just agbol.com.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: I do own agbolmedia.com too, just in case you're wanting.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Agbol.com.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, we have an action-packed show.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get right into it.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: You usually start with markets.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Folks, I'm in a new spot here.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in Nashville and I feel rushed.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: I drove here.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: There was traffic.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: It's crazy.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: America's hopping.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: The world's happened.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: I do want to just go over something real quick.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: Crude oil just opened$2 higher.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: That was unexpected.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: Do tell Jim.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, well, the details on that was that just like a half an hour ago, I guess, we bombed uh uh that we launched strikes on Iran's uh Larrick Island.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: That was the first offensive in weeks, Tommy.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: The the U.S.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: fired attacks after Iran's uh Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were allegedly setting up another wave of underwater mines in the Strait of Harmuz.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: And we said that's a no-no.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the guard uh confirmed the attack, and it reportedly killed and wounded several people.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: And that uh that got the market going for sure.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get in the markets.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna put uh a screen with you in the charts.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the markets last week.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: Matter of fact, Jim, I'm gonna blow this all the way up so the viewers can really take a look at these numbers.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Green screen, except uh the only two negatives were live cattle and feeder cattle.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: But uh look at look at SRW wheat up 84 and three quarter cents for the week.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that that's a lot.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Corn up 28 cents, soybeans 48 and a half cents.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: That surprised some people, but each day it it gained momentum, I think a combination of reasons, but uh China purchases.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: So you go through it, and it was quite impressive.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Look at cotton, we're at over 91 cents now, up 303 points for the week.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Again, it was down Friday, but boy, what a week it had! So, you want higher prices, you got higher prices for almost all the commodities we cover except cattle.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Unbelievable there.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: And you like to display it in a different way here.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Here you go.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, in a percentage basis.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the leader was SRW weed up a little over 12, hardbred winter wheat up almost nine percent, meal, meal up a little over seven percent, corn at 28 cents, up five and a half percent.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: So just in impressive here.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I included uh rice, uh rough rice had uh, although that's a kind of an illiquid uh market, they've had a pretty good uh week, and and that's good for the rice growers I know, and I know a lot of them.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I traded a few oat contracts for a few people.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: Those oats had an impressive day Friday.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: They were definitely lagging.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: One commentary I'd like to add, just going back a slide, is that Minneapolis Spring wheat, the high quality wheat, is not even nearly keeping up with the others.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: And there's reasons if a fund goes to buy a lot of contracts, they're going right to the board.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: The most liquidity is in the board, then the casey, then the mini.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: We all know the mini is a higher quality wheat, but it's just not keeping up.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: This spread is going to levels that I haven't seen lately.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, when markets move, they can go further than you think.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: But folks who love to trade wheat, love to buy spring wheat, sell board, buy spring wheat, sell case, but that's not working here, is it, Jim?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: No, and but we have to say managed money went on a major buying spree in grain futures and options in the weekended uh August 25th.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: It was led by corn, where funds established a record gross long position and sharply expanded bullish exposure across much of the complex.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got the the you know, you've got the funds kicking in for sure now.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that gets scary up there, Jim, when they get this aggressive.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about that more in a little bit.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's go with Monday policy moves.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: We've got major decisions and announcements.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: EPA's the big kahuna here because we're finally gonna get an EPA uh announcement sometime uh uh Friday.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: It'll leak, it'll leak for sure before they actually make the announcement, you know, you know, based on history.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: But we're gonna get uh some refinery exemptions, and we're gonna detail a little bit more later when we get to our table, Tommy.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: But bottom line on EPA, we're finally going to see what what's gonna happen to those 2025 uh SREs for the small refiners.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: But there's a lot of other decisions embodied in that that we'll go through in a minute.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: USDA's meat initiative that was signaled late last week for small processors.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: That could be some internet, uh some uh interstate sales, regulation, labeling.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think this is a CYA by the administration because they're taking such a hit on this next bullet, which is their beef imports, when Trump announced a new 300,000 metric ton tariff uh free quota that begins Tuesday.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: And he has been hit left and right.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: And it looks like Brazil's gonna be the leading country in delivering that, and that's really hamburger meat, it's not in the retail uh uh uh uh establishment, it's it's in the fast food industry, Tommy.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I looked up CYA, I Googled it.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think that means cover your ass for your home game.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: You're stuck there.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: What the hell is going on, brother?
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: All right, number three.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: You have a really cute.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: This is detailed.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: This is detail.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Look at what EPA must decide.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: The backlog of small refinery exemptions, that's the SRE we talk about in the alphabet soup of Washington.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's the petitions under the RFS or the renewable fuel standard.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the deadline for them, they said their their own deadline was at the end of August.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, that's Monday.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's the last day of the month, and EPA is set for clearing the backlog.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now, initially, the exemptions EPA assumed in the 26 and 27 renewable volume obligations, RVOs, was about 990 million rins.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: But then stories broke last week, earlier early in the week, Bloomberg, I think, was the first to report it, that as much as 1.8 billion rins, and that really hit the soybean oil complex.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when they when the administration was hit with such negatives by the ag sector, especially the uh soy sector and the corn sector, then they came up with what what we've identified as the wimpy thing that you know, if you give me a hamburger today, I'll pay you tomorrow.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're good.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: One of the options, it's not been officially announced, but one of the options under review was roughly to add roughly 500 to add roughly 500 million gallons to the 2027 biofuel requirements.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: But again, no you know, final decision as of Friday.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's called appeasement, by the way.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: The about 500 million gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel are is at risk.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: The American Soybean Association said in a statement earlier in the week, and and they said that would cost this uh soy sector a lot of money.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: So the conventional ethanol rins uh were hit.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now they're they were at the lowest since April.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: So the rumors have had the effect, I guess, of some people wanted them to go lower.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: December soybean oil contract was at what a little over 71 cents.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: So the timing problem is waivers are now going against the mandated gallons that EPA promised the the bio-based renewable diesel industry.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: So it looks like to me the White House wants to please everybody.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, when that happens in Washington, you please nobody.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: They call that Jimmy Carter, right?
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they call that President Trump.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: On this one, he's he he did it in his first administration, and they didn't learn lessons there.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: You have to make a policy decision and stick with it.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like they're trying to water it down, and and the the the reason they're doing this, at least they think, is it'll lower the gasoline price, Tom.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: But most people are saying, good luck with that.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going to lower the price of gasoline all that much, if any.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the i I've not seen the lobbyist out in force on this one for a long time, and that's the crude oil industry, big oil, if you will.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, Jim, on my way, my drive to Nashville, I listened to Agri-Talk AM with you and Chip and uh Sean.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: And Chip kept referring to Trump 1.0.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: That's what he means, right?
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's the first administration 1.0, 2.0, second term.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: So when he says Trump 1.0, that's going back to the old school, let's float an idea, let's this, let's that.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: And absolutely.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: The soybean oil had some extreme, extreme volatility last week.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: See, because at the beginning of the week we went down on these initial rumors, and then the more people thought, well, oh, now we they're gonna have this offset, maybe, although it'll come later.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: That brought that that helped bring back the soybean uh oil market.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess so, yeah.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: There's you have policy.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: I know traders don't like policy, but I always tell a trader, Tommy, try to chart a politician, try to chart a White House.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: You can't do it.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can chart soybeans and corn prices, but you cannot chart policy.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's just it'll go up zag all over the place.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of policy, Congress and farm policy moving along here.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Congress the House returns.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: The the Senate is out for a few more weeks.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: The the they return Monday, but Tuesday's your key vote, probably the only major vote this week.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna vote on a continuing resolution that's a CR funding that would keep the government funded through December the 11th, past the November 3rd elections.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Let's hope they do that so we can take the uh shutdown off the books for a while.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: They're only gonna be here four days this week, and then they're out another week for the Labor Day holiday, Tommy.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: And that means the farm policy initiatives are stalled.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: The Senate remains out until September the 14th, which I think just increases the odds you're not gonna have a vote on this uh farm bill anytime soon on you know farm bill 2.0.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: And the farmer aid package, I think, is going to be delayed until after November 3rd election.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that's where we're at for Congress.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's really up to the White House and the executive orders.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: They're taking control of Washington now, not Congress.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: In all your years, 50 years of covering DC, have you ever seen the everything move this fast?
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Because my head's spinning.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's Trump.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's Trump.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'm a workaholic, but he's got me exhausted.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, oh, by the way, uh a friend and a subscriber, Chase Stewitz, called and he said, You have to tell Jim to slow down.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: I cannot read all these emails.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: Big big shout out to Chase.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: He's a good supporter and friend of the show.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, Chase, he emails you too.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know what people like about you when they email, you actually respond.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's absolutely that's my grassroots.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: I have to text you and email you and call you and look for you.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's my grassroots.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: If you're only as good as the people who read you, listen to you, and help you.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: Period.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: Next one.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of help, economy and the Fed.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: Here comes the help.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: Big report Friday.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's the jobs report.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: The August payrolls are the week's key macro event.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: But strong jobs favor a September hike, weak data reduces the odds.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why we got to look at what that report says, Tommy.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: The dollar impact, softer jobs data could help US ag exports reason, makes them more competitive, but it takes a while.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: But we had uh Walsh, the Fed chairman Kevin Warsh spoke Friday, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: The bottom line on his speech, some people called it a nothing burger.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: I absolutely disagreed with that.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: He more than signaled that inflation has his focus, and that's why the odds for a uh September FOMC, I think the 15th and 16th rate hike went a little over 50 percent.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: So that was the significance of that.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're gonna see what the follow-through and what the data says.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't come out right out and say that, but he was more of a hawk than people thought.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: Can I tell you something?
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know he played a trick on the algorithms, right?
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: With opening his speech about let's go in the mountains and go for a hike.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, when he said hike, this guy, most traders are playing checkers.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: This SOB is playing chess, all right.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: He played the algorithms like a fiddle because they're so tired.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's interesting of algorithms nitpicking over every word, and he knows the keywords.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: And he said, Let's tell a story about going for a hike, and he was smiling, and the markets went crazy.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: It was brilliant, and hats off to you, new Fed chair Kevin Walsh.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: You gave Wall Street a little lesson, and uh, I hope you're watching this show.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: All right, speaking of the show, slide number five, USDA and farm events.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: We just got so much important information.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now we get the traditional Monday crop progress report, but now with all the the uh issues with the uh crop, both corn and and soybeans now, and this tremendous heat that that's that's going to be with us, what was today starting and lasting through the week.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: The latest conditions are gonna be uh focused when they come out at three o'clock central time.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: But the crush data comes Tuesday, and this is gonna be the first hard look at processing economics after uh the EPA's decision that we should get by Monday afternoon.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why the crush data Tuesday is gonna be important.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: Farm income update comes Thursday.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're gonna get a far more realistic forecast from USDA because now they've got acreage, they've got the August, it's gonna be based on the August uh WASDI report, supply and demand report.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: We've had higher prices, again, lower production.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: So it's gonna be curious.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: We should see a pickup in farm income, but we're gonna let the numbers speak to us and we'll comment on that next week.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: And the big show, farm progress show, comes back.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh it's gonna Tuesday through Thursday in Boone, Iowa.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where a number of administration officials will be there.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: I know Brooke Rollins is gonna be there, and EPA will probably be there.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna have a NAS data stats conference there, you know, where they're seeking information from farmers.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna be an important event.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: Just a real quick story.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, when I worked for Pear Farmer, whenever we got highfalutin in our riding style, Merrill Oster, the then owner, would say you need to go to a farm progress show to get back to the grassroots.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: I like that.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: I like that.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, uh, speaking of grassroots, let's uh we're halfway through the show.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: We're just zipping along.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna let you, I'm gonna mute your microphone real quick.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: Folks, if you haven't caught it, Ag Squawk AM with Mr.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: Jed Sidwell.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: That is a free show, open to the public.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: Tell a friend.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's available on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and X AgSquawk in the afternoons with Mr.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: Davis Michelson, a familiar voice, an absolutely legendary farm broadcaster.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: He's part of the AgBull team.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: As you know, Jim Weismeyer has officially joined Ag Bull.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: He's even wearing the shirt.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: Look for more, of course, on every slide.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to get right to Jim's information on the AgBull website, we have a little URL there, weismeyer.ag, and that will stay consistent when his page launches on the AgBull website.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: You'll be able to go to Weismeyer.ag.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: And I Jim, I was counting on my fingers, toes, and everything else.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: We have about eight, nine more weeks of doing the show open to the public, and then they'll have to subscribe.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: I constantly telling people this.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: I want them to make sure they're on your list.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: If you're on Jim's list, if you're not on it, go over there, go to go over to the Agble website and say, I want to be on Jim's list, and we'll mail you out a coupon for when he goes pay for a service.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you, folks, we're oh Jim.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: Arts at the top right.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: I I I had you muted.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: Repeat what you're saying.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: If you're already getting my daily and special reports, etc., you don't have to contact us because you're already a lecture.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: He drives him nuts when he has to enter it and it's already there.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: No, we'll take care of it.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: Just uh hit the website and we'll get it to you.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: There's so you know, Jim, I don't think people realize how hard you work.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: I know how hard you work, and Chase knows how hard you work, and how hard I'm working.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: That you know, we prep for this show several hours before we did it.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: We're doing it, we have to process it.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: I have to be ready for the uh grain market to open here at seven o'clock tonight.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: But uh information's not free.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: And if you want good high-quality information, it's definitely not free.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_01: At least not on this website anymore.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: But we still have our daily shows.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: We still there we're still putting out a ton of content and get you know, getting the news out there.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: All right, next number six, China and soybeans.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: China and soybeans, we've got another auction, Sino Grain coming up Wednesday.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: The significance here, it's only 68,000 metric tons, a lot lower than normal.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: What's that mean?
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: It means they may be flushed up on the demand cycle and moved enough to take in more and more U.S.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans for the months ahead.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Strong clearance for this auction would suggest crushers still need nearby supplies.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: So we're still going to look at how that auction worked out.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: We should know that sometime Thursday.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: I want to end it with U.S.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: China talks.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trump keeps saying he will be that Xi Jinping, China's leader, is coming over September 24th.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I I personally expect that to happen, but I still have not seen any total confirmation from China about that trip.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'll feel a little bit better when China also says, okay, Xi Jinping is coming to DC September 24th.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: But not to worry, I think it's good.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: Both countries need that summit, and I think it's going to happen.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: And look at all those soybeans that they are continue to purchase.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what's helping the soybean sector absorb some of the hits that they've had relative to the possible EPA announcement.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: And if they go beyond soybeans and purchase other commodities, you can take off.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's what I was just going to ask you.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: That was my follow-up question.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: So, corn, wheat, soybeans at multi-multi-year highs.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone was hoping, oh, well, when China comes over here, maybe they could buy this crop and and support our markets.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: We're at three-year highs.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: Coming into a midterm when the president is doing drastic things to get ground beef down 10 cents a pound.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: How is the White House and administration going to like it when they hear that the grain indexes are all at multi-year highs?
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's the bot, it's at the bottom of every Bloomberg screen, CNBC.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: They're calling farmers in the middle of nowhere.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: They're calling people saying, How are you going to feed your animals with these higher grain prices?
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if China comes over and buys grain, which I hope they do, I hope we continue to go up.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't call the website Agble because I'm always bearish, but I I want the farmer to do well.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: But the administration's in a conundrum, aren't they, Jim?
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: They are.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: Purchase U.S.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: corn at this particular time.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: We've got sticky inflation.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: And as you said, it's going to lead to higher food prices in the months ahead.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: So you're going to hear a lot about the food price situation for the remainder of this year.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's called the prices that we're seeing right now, and perhaps even higher prices in the months ahead on under the whole gamut of commodities, corn, soybeans, sorghum, et cetera.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'll ask you another follow-up question.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: One out of 10, how important is South American weather going to be this year?
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: Very important because there's your cushion, and you won't have the cushion anymore.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: So absolutely.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be we're going to be laser focused on the planning and not only just if the crop gets in, but how it develops.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I feel good knowing that I'm at Nesvik Trading and we have our own internal weatherman who's pumping out information night and day.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: And uh I feel blessed to be here.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get back to the show.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: That means number seven, Black Sea and Wheat.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: Talk about crazy.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: I had a major update on AgBull.com today, but the Turkey is trying to get the two countries to talk.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: That broke uh early Saturday, but I don't see any any agreement by both countries to do that.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: But that is an element I wanted to point out.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: There's no agreement or implementation, shipping constraints.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's turned to vessel availability, is the bigger problem, Tommy, because of insurance.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_00: They can't get the right insurance mechanisms.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: And bottom line, uh, Ukraine is hurting the most on their shipping versus normal of the grains that they normally ship during these next few months.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_00: And we're already beginning to see a number of countries change destination to other countries, uh, etc.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's your market significance that we talked about what, a month ago, if not longer, six weeks ago, that we said, watch this thing, because the longer it goes, the grain's still there, Tommy.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna but they're gonna have storage problems pretty soon, right?
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, it's also with the downturn in the prices in both Ukraine and Russia, especially Ukraine, it could negatively affect the the 2027 crop in Ukraine because they they can't get the price to plant, you know.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: So the this is it's just it's increasing in importance, it's not decreasing, is what is what we're saying.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: So this is unbelievable with all everything going on in Iran and now everything going on, which is not new what's been going on in the Black Sea in China, but it it's very heightened now.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and uh you see these rumors.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: How about those rumors that came out a week ago when it said Russia and Ukraine to work something out?
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: And we tumbled, we are like a dollar fifty higher than that when we were on that uh low print.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that shows you the sensitivity to this issue, volatility.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: And that's it's the case when it's it's just like you're wound up, you can have a rubber band wound up, and if something takes, it pops on that one.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: So we will we continue to monitor this every day, Tommy, on on Agbol.com.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, I have a chart of that.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'll blow that out.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's where the grain is stuck and who's trying to unstick it.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: Again, we we mentioned on here Turkey is pressing for a what they call a new safe shipping mechanism on Cara is in talks with Moscow and Kiev.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: That happened August the 29th, but no agreement, no corridor, no reopening dates.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see where they had continued battles over the weekend, Saturday and Sunday.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_00: So the the biggest news over the weekend was Danube ports, and that's affected Ukraine.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_00: They took some heated rounds there both days of the weekend.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_00: So again, it's escalating, it's not decelerating, Tommy.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's the word so far.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's the bottom line.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, number eight, Canada trade.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: Most of the Canadians tell me they don't see US-Canada relations getting back anywhere close to normal until Trump leaves office, to tell you the truth.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_00: However, September the 8th is when their retaliation begins.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, major U.S.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: crops, including ethanol and meats, are spared.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's the good thing.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: But dairy is exposed big time.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: So dairy products in the U.S.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_00: are facing the biggest uh ag impacts from the Canada's cross-retaliation for the U.S.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: moves on this one.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_00: We're in a trade war right now.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_00: I I think eventually it'll be settled, but not anytime soon because there's still the war of words between the two, where uh it just I don't see that ending anytime soon.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: So that's your bottom line.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's just it's messy, ugly.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'd ask viewers and listeners to listen to agri talk a m with chip and Jim and Sean, and then Davis Michelson had Sean Haney on AgSquawk.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: Tell us about our friend Sean.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: This guy, I don't know that anyone has a he is like the Jim Wiesmeyer of Canada, but much better looking at the way it's just no much.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: He works out more than I do.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: Let me tell you that.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: He's a good guy, and and he's getting to know U.S.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: agriculture, and he's helped us explain Canadian agriculture, and he's a good communicator.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he knows how to flip a phrase, and he but yeah, he's honestly a family man.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh as two kids, I think, two boys I know that are in sports, and he travels all over the U.S.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: with them as they play, you know, baseball and things like that.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: But he brings an uh explanation of Canadian agriculture and politics to the US that you don't normally hear elsewhere.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: And we that's why we have him on with Davis.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, he's a regular on AgriTalk on Fridays.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: And he's got a cool, calm voice, he's unemotional, no matter what Trump says, changing lake names, everything else.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_01: He doesn't he he laughs, you know.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: He's he's looking at the big picture and he says something oftentimes.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: I heard him say it again on Friday.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: He said, Canadians get emotional.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: Talk about that.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: They they read the headlines and get like they think it's they take the the well.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: Go ahead, I'll let you say your opinion.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: The 51st state really affected Canada more than what most Americans think.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_00: It was a little joke for a while, but not to Canadians.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_00: And now Trump is up the game with this, with his uh Lake America, Lake America.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, just that it's not because that's it now, it's mushroomed into the more alcohol not being sold, American alcohol not being sold in Canada, and that's devastated the U.S.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: alcohol industry.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: So the trend is not good, uh, short term for US and Canadian trade.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a it has longer-term significance.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's got to be devastating.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, and we've got an integrated market.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: And Trump again said today he doesn't want to buy anything, Canada.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: We need Canada for potash, we need Canada for certain types of crude that we blend it and we refine it, things like that.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: So I I love our president, I don't care whether it's Democrat or Republican, I'll support our president no matter what.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: But he says things sometimes that are just not correct.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: And with Canada, I just think it's an emotional argument with Trump that uh he just does not get along with the officials there, and it's uh more than a family fracas.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's gonna be lingering.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, let's go to number nine energy and this uh one.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we hit it.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's we're still up almost two percent on crude oil.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brent's up the same thing.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: Brent's almost hitting$90, by the way.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: We have a light calendar this week on reports though that it'll be focused on the tanker tracking in the Harmoz and the EI EIA you know petroleum data.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: Diesel prices, though, are your big key now.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: They're still rising.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now the gasoline prices average came down a few cents, I think, as of Sunday versus a week ago.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: Diesel prices is a growing political problem for the administration.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: And right when we're going into harvest, Tommy, you've got very high diesel prices.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna be a sticky inflation concern for the months ahead.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna they're watching Iran China China flows, how much uh Iranian crude is reaching China.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: But you notice Trump has has talked a powerful game against Iran, but he really hasn't, hasn't mentioned Danny, China banks are in trouble relative to dealing with Iran.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I think he wants this summit not to be affected by the US-Iran war.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: As far as OPEC, the next meeting is Sunday, September the 6th.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: So if it wouldn't have been for the the battle that we saw today with the you know US launching strikes on the island in Iran, I think we would have been lower, but we aren't.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: And we didn't talk about it.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: Let's chit-chat a little bit about it.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: The Venezuela news.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he Trump announced big news that we're basically taking over Venezuelan oil investing, and he's gonna use a bunch of that oil, which that's the good part of it in my judgment, to eventually refuel the uh strategic petroleum reserve.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: But this is a very aggressive move on the part of Trump that uh he's he's investing.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's actually the Pentagon is investing in, you know, believe it or not, in the Venezuelan oil fields.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I don't know how much how many years that that'll last uh beyond uh Trump's uh administration.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_00: But he's uh the the the other thing is they have huge reserves, Tommy.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: And we're gonna have first pick at those reserves at cost.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: So this is you know, a uh if you're looking at oil prices and so supply and demand for the future from the U.S.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_00: perspective, whether you can cuss and discuss whether it's the right thing to do, it pencils out for sure.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, what what a time to be alive.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta tell you.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, we've zipped through the show, and before we get out of here, I want to talk about the second I get done with this, I'm gonna process this show, but I'm gonna log into trade the news.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: Trade the news is a sponsor of this show.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: Jim and I and the whole crew, the whole AgBull crew, Joe Grasafi, Davis, and Jed, we all have Trade the News.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's a wonderful squawk service.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: Email the Trade the News Boys tell them the AgBull boys sent you, of course.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, when I do look at the markets, and Jim and I and the whole crew, we also have T4 software.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: You could use it for quotes, you could use it for trading.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: That is by plus 500.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: Uh plus 500, a big sponsor of the show.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_01: All right, before we get out of here, I just want to say one thing.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_01: The funds are really, really long corn.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: We are a few weeks from harvest, and harvest has been pushed ahead.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_01: We have a USDA report next week, and there's an incredible amount of risk.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: By no way can I look in this camera and say the market's going up, the market's going down.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_01: If I knew that I wouldn't be filming videos, I'd be your rich friend.
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_01: But I can tell you this we hit multi-year highs in corn, wheat, and beans.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: We have alleged president of China on his way over here in the next few weeks.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_01: We have no clue what the corn yield is within 10 bushels.
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_01: We don't know if it's 180, 175, 170.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, there's incredible volatility.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_01: With volatility comes opportunity.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_01: But I ask you all before I bow out and give Jim the last word, work with someone who knows what they're doing.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: You have the ability to have Weesmeyer's perspectives.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_01: Make sure you send your email that you're on the list.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_01: You have the ability to subscribe to Agble Intel and other services like this.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: There's some people who know what they're doing.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_01: But trust me, from someone who has gray hair and someone who has you also have gray hair.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_01: You do.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there's more white, but I you know, when you said Trump did that thing with Venezuela, in my head, all I could say was, that's a bold move, Cotton.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: Remember that movie Dodge Ball with that bull cotton.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: I like a Godfather II movie, it's a lot like that.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: I like that too.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Michael Corleone was taking care of business.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: But I wanted to add to you a 10 to 15 cent downward correction in corn would be normal from the run-up that we've seen.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: Wouldn't even break a trend line.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_00: No, if it's what happens at that 15 potential 15 cent break, uh, is it bought?
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's your significance.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_00: But we've got what eight dollar wheat in some contracts, right?
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_00: We have the deferred soybeans.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think it hit 13, didn't it last week?
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: It is within a penny or two.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think it hit 13.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_01: Within a penny.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: I think 2027.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think I saw beans in the jeans.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, in the July CR for sure.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'll I'll take anything as long as it hits 13.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: And corn, like you said, we don't really know.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's explosive.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_00: No clue.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: We have no clue what the corn crap is.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_01: I will say this, and then I will give you the full thing.
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: If we can go limit up on a day that no one knew it was going to go limit up, it can equally go limit down.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: If corn has a bad day this week, I'm going to bet we had a worse day.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: I will say that that corn really didn't want to go up that much Friday.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_01: It actually traded lower on the day late in the day, aggressively, eight, nine cents off the highs.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_01: And then late in the day, as beans rallied up on the back of bean oil and rumors coming out of DC and everything else, and people shored up positions before the weekend.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh corn closed up a penny.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: So, folks, there is a huge amount of risk between your crop insurance level and where we are now.
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_01: Somewhere you need to cover that gap.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: Jim, take us home.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'll take you home by saying we've already said big Monday.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh let's go.
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_00: I hope it's not rainy days and Mondays always get us down, but we've got some big policy decisions coming from USDA, the White House, and EPA.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_00: So stay tuned.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_00: As Tommy said, I'll end it with volatility that gives you opportunities to market.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'll see you soon, brother, brother.