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Transcript

AI Layoffs Go on the Record · After the Demo

0:00
Kate: Somebody on X dared people to name one new job AI is supposed to create. The post got almost a thousand replies.
0:07
John Arndt: Any good ones?
0:08
Kate: I did not read a thousand replies, John.
0:11
John Arndt: Fair.
0:11
Kate: But I've got one of my own.
0:13
John Arndt: Go.
0:14
Kate: The person who checks what the AI did.
0:16
John Arndt: Okay. That one's real.
0:18
Kate: Not the AI. Not the person who bought the AI. The person who has to look at what it wrote and go, no. We are not sending that.
0:26
John Arndt: You just wrote the job posting.
0:28
Kate: Is it a job, though? Or is it a chore somebody dumps on you at four on a Friday?
0:34
John Arndt: Depends who's paying for it.
0:35
Kate: Right. So does it pay?
0:37
John Arndt: Ask me after the episode.
0:38
Kate: That is not an answer.
0:40
John Arndt: It's a promise to answer.
0:42
Kate: I'm writing that down.
0:55
John Arndt: This is After the Demo. I'm John Arndt. I run about fifteen small software products out of Sacramento, most of them built and run with AI agents, plus an AI consulting practice.
1:06
Kate: And I'm Kate.
1:07
John Arndt: So there's an outplacement firm that counts announced layoffs in the U.S. every month. And in their count, AI is the reason companies have cited most this year.
1:16
Kate: Cited.
1:17
John Arndt: Cited. I'm going to keep saying cited. And California signed a law at the end of September that will make some employers say so right on the layoff notice.
1:25
Kate: So if you run a business, you're wondering if everybody around you is about to swap their staff for software. And whether you're supposed to.
1:33
John Arndt: And if you sell to businesses?
1:35
Kate: Then one of your accounts posts a layoff. Do you email them? What do you even say?
1:40
John Arndt: That one we're going to fight about.
1:42
Kate: Oh, we are. Also, how much to believe the reason a company gives. And when a sales team should just not hit send.
1:50
Kate: And one rule. Every time he says the word signal today, I'm going to ask him what he'd actually send.
1:56
John Arndt: That's going to come up.
1:58
Kate: I know it is.
1:59
John Arndt: Start with the headline, because the number checks out and the word doesn't.
2:06
Kate: Okay. I want to play a game.
2:08
John Arndt: Oh no.
2:09
Kate: I read the headline. You read the count. Headline first.
2:13
John Arndt: Go.
2:14
Kate: Watcher Guru. Huge account on X, about five million followers. Posted this month, quote, IMF predicts AI will take over forty percent of all jobs.
2:25
John Arndt: Mm.
2:26
Kate: No link, no source. Forty percent of all jobs.
2:30
John Arndt: Okay. Count. Same day, according to the news reports, the head of the IMF was on a panel about AI and jobs. The IMF and World Bank meetings, in Bangkok.
2:40
Kate: Oh. So there was a real thing. Okay, I was ready to be mad at the post. Now I don't know who I'm mad at.
2:46
John Arndt: Stay mad. Just hold it a second. The number in the reports is about forty percent of jobs worldwide affected by AI. In rich countries, as high as sixty.
2:56
Kate: Wait. Sixty? So the post undersold it?
3:00
John Arndt: Hold on. Affected. The reports spell out what that means. Jobs that get helped, jobs that get downgraded, and jobs that get eliminated. All in the same forty.
3:09
Kate: So she did say forty percent. The post is right.
3:12
John Arndt: The number's right. The verb isn't.
3:14
Kate: Explain the verb thing like I'm driving.
3:17
John Arndt: Take over is the post's word. The jobs AI helps are counted in that forty. Say AI makes a bookkeeper faster. In the reports, that job is affected. In the post, it got taken over.
3:28
Kate: So the post says take over, and her forty includes helped.
3:32
John Arndt: Same number, different verb. I can't tell you where the post got it. But take over isn't the word in the reports.
3:38
Kate: Poor bookkeeper. Got faster and got fired in the same post.
3:43
John Arndt: And she called it, quote, a slow-moving tsunami. Which is a lot less fun to put in a headline.
3:48
Kate: A slow tsunami is still a tsunami, John.
3:51
John Arndt: It is. But slow is the word that didn't make the post. And the forty isn't even new. The IMF first put it out in January twenty twenty-four.
3:59
Kate: Twenty twenty-four? This is a rerun?
4:02
John Arndt: Same person, in a blog post. Back then the word was, quote, exposed. Almost forty percent of jobs worldwide. And in rich countries, roughly half of the exposed ones, quote, may benefit. The other half, it said, could see AI take over key tasks.
4:18
Kate: Exposed. Like a pipe in winter.
4:20
John Arndt: Sure. Some pipes are fine. Some aren't.
4:23
Kate: Okay. Round two. Headline. AI is taking all the jobs. Count.
4:29
John Arndt: Challenger, Gray and Christmas. They're an outplacement firm, and they count announced job cuts every month. Their September report came out October first. About forty-three thousand announced cuts in September. Down eighteen percent from August.
4:42
Kate: Down is good?
4:44
John Arndt: Down is down.
4:45
Kate: That's not an answer either. You're collecting those today.
4:49
John Arndt: It's a careful answer. One month, down from the month before. I'm not calling it a trend.
4:55
Kate: Fine. Where's AI in it?
4:57
John Arndt: So far this year, AI is the most cited reason in their count. About a hundred twenty thousand cuts. Roughly one in five.
5:03
Kate: One in five. Okay, that's not nothing.
5:07
John Arndt: But in September alone, AI was cited for about four thousand. It was the fifth most cited reason that month.
5:13
Kate: Wait. Top reason for the year, and fifth this month? How does that, okay, which one am I supposed to believe?
5:20
John Arndt: Both. A big year, and a quieter month. And in both cases it's the reason the company gave when it announced the cuts. Challenger tallies what the companies say.
5:29
Kate: So it's the company's word.
5:30
John Arndt: Their word. Round three?
5:32
Kate: Round three. Headline. Everybody's getting replaced.
5:36
John Arndt: The government's September jobs report came out the next day. Employers added twenty-nine thousand jobs. The forecast was about ninety thousand.
5:44
Kate: Oof.
5:45
John Arndt: Unemployment went up to four point two percent. And July got revised to a loss. Ten thousand jobs.
5:51
Kate: So everybody's just standing in the doorway.
5:53
John Arndt: For September, pretty much.
5:55
Kate: That's a weird look for a robot takeover.
5:58
John Arndt: And Andy Challenger, whose firm does the count, put it in one line. Quote, companies are in a wait-and-see period right now.
6:04
Kate: Okay, but which is it? Is it AI, or is it the economy wearing an AI costume?
6:10
John Arndt: That's good.
6:12
Kate: I know it's good. Answer it.
6:14
John Arndt: Probably some of each. And the count can't tell you which, because the reason on the count is the reason the company gave.
6:19
Kate: That's a dodge.
6:21
John Arndt: It's the honest version. What I'll stand behind is the shape. Cuts in September, down from August. Hiring, well under what people expected.
6:29
Kate: And if you're selling into that?
6:30
John Arndt: My guess, and it's a guess, is longer decisions, and buyers who want proof before they move.
6:35
Kate: You sell software. Of course you think buyers want proof.
6:39
John Arndt: Guilty. But wait-and-see isn't my line. That's from the firm that counts layoffs for a living.
6:44
Kate: Okay. So the reason is whatever they say it is.
6:48
John Arndt: In the count, yeah.
6:49
Kate: Then let's read one. A company said out loud this month that its layoffs are not driven by AI efficiencies.
6:56
John Arndt: HubSpot.
7:01
Kate: HubSpot. Okay, who are they, for anybody who's never logged into it?
7:06
John Arndt: Software company out of Cambridge, Massachusetts. Businesses use their platform for marketing, sales and customer service. They're cutting nearly six hundred sixty jobs. About seven percent of their people.
7:17
Kate: And they said why.
7:18
John Arndt: The CEO sent a memo to staff. They're reorganizing their product teams around customer outcomes, instead of around their separate products. They call those Hubs. And they're taking out some layers of management.
7:29
Kate: What's a Hub?
7:30
John Arndt: Their separate products. That's their word for them.
7:33
Kate: Okay. Before you read me the memo, let me guess. They're very excited about the future.
7:38
John Arndt: Probably somewhere in there. But the memo has a line in it I didn't expect. Quote, this is not driven by AI-related efficiencies.
7:46
Kate: Huh.
7:47
John Arndt: And the CEO also called it, quote, not simply a cost-cutting exercise.
7:51
Kate: Okay. I'll take that.
7:53
John Arndt: Take it how?
7:54
Kate: I believe them. They wrote it down. In the one year when AI is the easiest excuse there is, they went out of their way to say the cuts aren't driven by AI efficiencies.
8:05
John Arndt: Okay, let me argue the other side.
8:06
Kate: Wait. This is weird. I'm usually the one who doesn't believe the tech company.
8:11
John Arndt: Today you're the believer.
8:13
Kate: Today I'm the believer. They took the costume off. Go ahead.
8:18
John Arndt: Look at what they're doing, though. Fewer layers. Teams built around what the customer gets, instead of around the product. And the memo talks about moving from building software that helps customers grow, toward delivering outcomes for them with AI.
8:30
Kate: Okay, but that's the
8:32
John Arndt: Hang on, one more. One of the write-ups summed it up as reorganizing, quote, to align with its AI strategy.
8:39
Kate: So AI's in the plan. Even though they said the cuts aren't driven by AI efficiencies.
8:45
John Arndt: Both can be true. Fewer layers, teams built around outcomes. That might just be what a company looks like now, even if no single tool replaced a single person.
8:54
Kate: So they're wrong about their own company?
8:56
John Arndt: No. I'm saying you can't tell from a memo. And neither can I.
9:00
Kate: I can tell from a memo. That's what memos are for.
9:02
John Arndt: That's what they're for in theory.
9:04
Kate: You're very cynical for a man whose whole life is software.
9:08
John Arndt: That's how I got cynical.
9:09
Kate: Okay, what else is in it?
9:11
John Arndt: I'll give you one more for your side. Quote, customers don't think in Hubs and features.
9:16
Kate: See, that's a normal sentence. Nobody thinks in features. You think, did the thing get done.
9:23
John Arndt: And their board approved the plan on October first, and they said their forecast for the year stands.
9:27
Kate: So the year's on track, and they're reorganizing anyway. That sounds like a company that means it.
9:33
John Arndt: Or a company that's planning ahead. I still can't tell from here.
9:36
Kate: And you still want to read the memo against the memo.
9:40
John Arndt: There's a bigger version of that argument going around. An AI news account, kimmonismus, about a hundred fifty thousand followers, posted this month that he doesn't believe AI will necessarily create new jobs. He thinks more jobs will be replaced than created. And he said, quote, this needs to be discussed.
9:57
Kate: What set him off?
9:59
John Arndt: A chart about call centers. Different episode.
10:01
Kate: And that's whose side you're on?
10:03
John Arndt: No. He's giving his opinion. So am I. He even says it needs discussing, which, fair.
10:09
Kate: Well. We're discussing it.
10:10
John Arndt: We are.
10:11
Kate: Okay, one question. If HubSpot had written, this is because of AI. Would you believe that?
10:17
John Arndt: No.
10:19
Kate: No?
10:20
John Arndt: No. I'd say, show me what the AI is doing.
10:23
Kate: So a costume's a costume. On or off, it's what they told you.
10:27
John Arndt: Yeah. You got me. If I won't believe the AI version on their word, I don't get to throw out the other version on a hunch.
10:34
Kate: Thank you.
10:35
John Arndt: So where I land. What a company says about itself is their explanation. What you can check is the evidence.
10:42
Kate: And that goes for everybody.
10:43
John Arndt: Everybody. HubSpot, every company in that Challenger count, all of them.
10:48
Kate: Okay, so what? Say you run a business. Why do you care about somebody else's memo?
10:53
John Arndt: If you run your business on a platform like this, read the explanation as an explanation. It's what they're telling you. You don't have to decode it.
11:01
Kate: You just spent five minutes decoding it.
11:03
John Arndt: And got nowhere. That's my point.
11:05
Kate: And if you sell?
11:06
John Arndt: Then every account you have writes memos like this one. Some say AI, some say not AI. Either way it's their story about themselves.
11:15
Kate: Which you're allowed to read. You just don't get to treat it like the whole story.
11:19
John Arndt: That's better than how I said it.
11:20
Kate: I've been saying things better than you all day.
11:23
John Arndt: It's been a long day.
11:24
Kate: It's been ten minutes, John. Anyway. In California, a memo won't be the end of it. There's going to be a label.
11:32
John Arndt: Starting in twenty twenty-seven.
11:38
Kate: Okay. I'm going to ask what every owner listening is asking. Short answers.
11:43
John Arndt: I can do short.
11:44
Kate: What did California actually pass?
11:47
John Arndt: A bill called SB nine fifty-one, signed September thirtieth. It adds to the state's layoff notice law. People call it the WARN law.
11:55
Kate: And it does what?
11:56
John Arndt: Starting January first, twenty twenty-seven, if a covered layoff is caused, quote, in whole or in substantial part, by AI or other automated technology, the notice has to say so. At the top.
12:08
Kate: Say so how?
12:09
John Arndt: There's an exact heading. This notice is for a technology displacement.
12:13
Kate: Read it again.
12:14
John Arndt: This notice is for a technology displacement.
12:17
Kate: Cheerful. And that's the first line? Before anything else?
12:20
John Arndt: At the top. That's the point of it. Then it has to list the job functions being automated, and the kind of technology, plus the usual stuff, like how many
12:28
Kate: That's not a short answer.
12:30
John Arndt: It's short for a law. How many workers, what roles, where. Done.
12:35
Kate: Okay. Who has to do it? Say you run a small shop.
12:38
John Arndt: Depends on your size. The thresholds didn't change. Workplaces with seventy-five or more employees. Layoffs of fifty or more people within thirty days. Sixty days' notice.
12:47
Kate: What counts as AI causing it?
12:49
John Arndt: In whole or in substantial part.
12:52
Kate: And substantial part means?
12:54
John Arndt: The law doesn't define it. Two employment law firms wrote it up, and both of them said so in plain words.
12:59
Kate: Okay. New job for my list.
13:01
John Arndt: Oh, here we go.
13:02
Kate: The person who decides what substantial part means.
13:06
John Arndt: That job exists. It's called a lawyer.
13:08
Kate: Doesn't count. It has to be new.
13:10
John Arndt: Lawyers have been deciding what words mean for a long time.
13:14
Kate: Which is exactly why it doesn't count. Next. What stops a company from just not saying AI?
13:20
John Arndt: The notice says what the company says.
13:22
Kate: That's it?
13:23
John Arndt: That's what I can tell you. I'm not going to guess what any company will do. The label is the company's own answer, same as the memo.
13:30
Kate: The costume, written down.
13:31
John Arndt: Pretty much.
13:33
Kate: Anything else coming?
13:34
John Arndt: One more, signed the same day. SB nine forty-seven. It's called the No Robo Bosses Act.
13:40
Kate: That's actually what it's called?
13:42
John Arndt: That's what it's called. An employer can't rely only on an automated system to discipline or fire somebody. A person has to check the decision against other evidence, and the worker has to be told. That one starts July first, twenty twenty-seven.
13:55
Kate: Wait. A person has to check what the automated system decided? That's my job one again.
14:01
John Arndt: It keeps showing up.
14:03
Kate: Okay. And if you're not in California?
14:05
John Arndt: There's a federal layoff notice law too. Sixty days' notice for covered employers. And the rules vary by state.
14:12
Kate: So what does somebody do with that?
14:14
John Arndt: If you're anywhere close to those numbers, talk to your lawyer. Not a podcast.
14:19
Kate: Very responsible.
14:20
John Arndt: I try. I can tell you what the law says. I can't tell you what it means for your company.
14:25
Kate: Fine. Not a podcast. Does anybody add these up?
14:29
John Arndt: In California, the state's employment department has to publish summaries, including a quarterly statewide summary of technology displacements.
14:37
Kate: Okay, slow down for a second. Those are big numbers. Seventy-five people at one workplace.
14:43
John Arndt: They are. And if you're near them, you know what I'm going to say.
14:47
Kate: Lawyer. So why did we just spend a segment on it? That's a big company problem.
14:52
John Arndt: It is. Is a big company one of your customers?
14:55
Kate: Huh.
14:56
John Arndt: If you sell to companies that size, some of them may file one of these. The notices already exist. The AI label gets added in twenty twenty-seven.
15:04
Kate: Okay, but how would a salesperson even see one? Nobody reads state filings for fun.
15:10
John Arndt: They're public. States post them, usually before the press covers the layoff. A notice gives you the employer, the location, the headcount and the date it takes effect. Not which team got cut.
15:21
Kate: Except the California AI ones.
15:23
John Arndt: Right, from twenty twenty-seven those have to list the functions. Which is a lot more than you get today. And remember the thresholds. Plenty of cuts never produce a notice at all, so no notice doesn't prove there was no layoff.
15:36
Kate: So somebody's sitting there refreshing a state website all day?
15:40
John Arndt: Somebody could. Intakra, the sales tool I run, does it for the companies a team brings it. It watches those notices along with other public sources, and when something real happens, it sends the proof, with the date and the link.
15:52
Kate: Hang on. So there's a list of who just laid people off, and your tool hands it to salespeople.
15:58
John Arndt: Only for the companies a team already sells to. And it's public.
16:02
Kate: Public's not my question. That's a little ghoulish, John.
16:05
John Arndt: Hold that. That's the next fight.
16:07
Kate: Oh, I'm holding it.
16:13
John Arndt: Okay. I'm going to defend it.
16:16
Kate: The ghoulish list.
16:17
John Arndt: The notice. It's public, it's dated, it's real. A company filed a piece of paper with the state. That's about as clean a signal as you get.
16:25
Kate: Signal. You said it.
16:27
John Arndt: I said it.
16:28
Kate: Told you at the top. Every time you say signal, I ask what you'd actually send. So write it. Out loud. Say it's a two hundred person company, and I'm the VP whose team just got cut.
16:39
John Arndt: Fine. Hi. Saw the news about the changes at your company. A lot of teams in your spot are looking to do more with less, and our tool helps with exactly that. Worth a quick call?
16:49
Kate: Wow.
16:50
John Arndt: It's short.
16:51
Kate: Short's not the problem. I'm the VP. I spent this week walking people I hired out to the parking lot. And do more with less is the line I'm going to remember. With your company's name on it.
17:02
John Arndt: That's, okay. That's a bad email.
17:05
Kate: That's the email a lot of people would send.
17:07
John Arndt: In my defense, you gave me ten seconds.
17:10
Kate: The VP gets about two.
17:11
John Arndt: Probably. Okay, but bad email, good signal.
17:15
Kate: That's twice.
17:16
John Arndt: Good, uh, notice. The notice is still real.
17:20
Kate: Is it? What does the notice actually prove?
17:23
John Arndt: That they're laying people off.
17:24
Kate: That the layoff happened. That's one thing. You want it to prove they're about to buy something.
17:29
John Arndt: My bet is a company that just cut people is often looking for a way to get the same work done.
17:34
Kate: Often. Hold onto that word. And the reason on the notice? That's their own explanation. In California it'll say technology displacement or it won't, and substantial part isn't even defined.
17:46
John Arndt: Right, but that's
17:47
Kate: You said it last segment. The notice says what the company says. So you'd be writing to the label.
17:53
John Arndt: Yeah.
17:53
Kate: Don't pitch to the costume.
17:55
John Arndt: Okay. Write that one down too.
17:57
Kate: And say the label's perfect. The week of the cuts is the worst week of the year to be the cheerful vendor.
18:03
John Arndt: Last defense.
18:04
Kate: Let's hear it.
18:04
John Arndt: Sometimes the work survives. The team's gone, but the job didn't go anywhere, and somebody inherited it. That person might actually want help.
18:12
Kate: Then that somebody is having the worst month of their year. And your email is the second worst thing in their inbox.
18:18
John Arndt: What's the first?
18:20
Kate: The one from HR.
18:21
John Arndt: Yeah. Okay. You win that one.
18:24
Kate: Can I get that at the top? Like the notice?
18:26
John Arndt: This notice is for a John displacement. And it's worse than that. I wrote this rule down myself.
18:32
Kate: Oh, this I want to hear.
18:34
John Arndt: In late September I did a quality review on the opportunity list behind the heads-ups I send. And I cut it down to the few that held up. Instead of padding it.
18:42
Kate: Why not pad it? More is more.
18:44
John Arndt: Because the rule is, a heads-up comes with the public proof, or it doesn't get sent. And there's a second rule that sits right next to it. A public event is proof of that event. What it usually leads to is written with usually or often, never as fact.
18:59
Kate: Usually or often. Like your often, two minutes ago.
19:03
John Arndt: Like my often.
19:05
Kate: So the layoff is proof that there was a layoff.
19:08
John Arndt: That's all it is.
19:09
Kate: And the part where they want to buy your thing?
19:11
John Arndt: Usually, at best. Nobody outside a company can see a buying decision. Including me.
19:17
Kate: So you walked in here arguing against your own rule.
19:20
John Arndt: I did.
19:21
Kate: On your own show.
19:22
John Arndt: And I have a page on exactly this question. It says never mention the layoff in a first email. And when the cuts hit every department, wait a quarter or two. And if the cut took out your buyer, don't reach out this quarter.
19:35
Kate: And your email opened with saw the news.
19:38
John Arndt: My email opened with the layoff. Yeah.
19:40
Kate: Okay. So what do they do instead? Somebody listening has the list open right now.
19:46
John Arndt: Honestly? Mostly wait. Or, if you've really got something useful for the people who are still there, offer it, and don't ask for anything back.
19:53
Kate: And if you don't have anything useful?
19:55
John Arndt: Then you wait. Sometimes the right email is no email.
19:59
Kate: And if you do have something? What does that one sound like?
20:02
John Arndt: My page says lead with the work, not the product. So it's about the work they still have to do, nothing about the news. And I'd leave off the ask.
20:10
Kate: No ask at all?
20:11
John Arndt: None. If it's useful, that's enough for now.
20:14
Kate: That's a hard sell to a sales manager with a number to hit.
20:17
John Arndt: It is. But proof that it happened doesn't give you permission to pitch it. You know what the layoff guy said at the top? Wait-and-see. Sometimes the one doing wait-and-see should be you.
20:27
Kate: Look at you, quoting the layoff guy. Okay. List item three.
20:32
John Arndt: Of course.
20:33
Kate: The person who reads the email before it goes out.
20:36
John Arndt: I needed that one ten minutes ago.
20:38
Kate: Clearly.
20:39
John Arndt: You didn't have to agree that fast.
20:40
Kate: Okay. I've been sitting on the rest of my list long enough.
20:44
John Arndt: I've noticed.
20:50
Kate: So, the post from the top of the show. An account with about sixteen hundred followers, this month. Quote, everybody says that AI will create jobs we haven't imagined yet. Name me one.
21:02
John Arndt: And almost a thousand replies.
21:05
Kate: Which I still did not read. So you're getting my list.
21:08
John Arndt: Hang on. Before your list, there's a guy who'd say you're wasting your breath.
21:12
Kate: Can't wait.
21:13
John Arndt: Rational Aussie posted this month that he hasn't heard one business owner say AI is great because their people can now do ten times more. But he's heard plenty of them say they'll soon be able to replace most of their staff with AI agents.
21:26
Kate: Plenty of them? Who's he hanging out with?
21:29
John Arndt: And his argument is that AI breaks the old link between producing more and hiring more. You used to grow, so you hired.
21:36
Kate: Do you buy it?
21:37
John Arndt: That's what he says he's heard. It's one person's read, not a survey.
21:41
Kate: I do have a survey.
21:43
John Arndt: You have a survey?
21:44
Kate: I have two. I'm the data person now. Try to keep up.
21:47
John Arndt: Okay.
21:48
Kate: The New York Fed. A blog post on October eighth. They surveyed about five thousand two hundred small employers last fall. Seventy-seven percent of the owners they asked said AI hadn't changed their labor costs.
22:01
John Arndt: Seventy-seven. Huh.
22:03
Kate: And the owners using AI were more likely to expect their headcount to grow over the next year than the ones who weren't.
22:10
John Arndt: That's the opposite of what Rational Aussie's hearing.
22:12
Kate: I know. I'm enjoying it. Second survey, totally separate. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, run with Teneo Research, about thirty-seven hundred small businesses, this summer. About two thirds say they use AI.
22:26
John Arndt: Okay.
22:27
Kate: And of the ones using AI, forty-seven percent say it's creating jobs in their business today. Six percent say it's letting them cut headcount now.
22:36
John Arndt: Wait. Forty-seven to six?
22:38
Kate: Forty-seven to six. And now I get to play your game. Headline. Forty-seven percent. Count?
22:44
John Arndt: Okay, I deserve that. Count. It's forty-seven percent of the ones using AI. Not all small businesses.
22:52
Kate: I said that.
22:53
John Arndt: You did say that. And the forty-seven combines two answers. One of them is, it's creating jobs now, but I expect it'll ultimately require fewer people.
23:02
Kate: So some of the job creators think the jobs go away later.
23:06
John Arndt: Some of them. I can't tell you how many. And the Fed's hiring numbers are expectations. The authors say so. Whether the AI users actually grow is left for future research.
23:16
Kate: Fine. But expectations from five thousand owners still beat what one guy says he's heard.
23:21
John Arndt: Yeah. That's fair. That's a bigger sample than one person's read.
23:25
Kate: Thank you. I'm writing that one down too.
23:28
John Arndt: You're going to need a bigger notebook.
23:30
Kate: I have a very big notebook.
23:32
John Arndt: Okay, but the same Fed post has a sting in it. Only thirty-one percent said AI had brought them more sales.
23:39
Kate: So nobody's getting fired and nobody's getting rich.
23:42
John Arndt: Not nobody. Six percent of the AI users in the Chamber survey said it's letting them cut headcount. And the Challenger count from the top was actual announced cuts. But mostly? In these surveys, about that.
23:54
Kate: You've got one more. I can hear it.
23:57
John Arndt: One more business group, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council, asked about five hundred owners in September. Sixteen percent said AI is eliminating more jobs than it creates.
24:07
Kate: Sixteen. Not nothing. Not the internet either.
24:11
John Arndt: Nowhere near the internet.
24:13
Kate: Okay. Can I read my list now?
24:15
John Arndt: Read the list.
24:16
Kate: Job one, the one that keeps showing up. The person who checks what the AI did. Job two. The person who reads the email before it goes out.
24:25
John Arndt: I needed that one today.
24:26
Kate: You did. Job three, new one. The person who explains to a customer what the bot meant.
24:32
John Arndt: Oh, that one I believe.
24:33
Kate: Say you run a dental office. Somebody asks the chat thing on your website a question, it says something weird, and now a human has to call that person back and translate.
24:43
John Arndt: And apologize a little.
24:44
Kate: With feeling. Still not counting lawyers.
24:47
John Arndt: You're still mad about the lawyers.
24:49
Kate: The lawyers will be fine. The lawyers are always fine.
24:53
John Arndt: They will. And for the record, I run most of my products with agents. So I'm in your job one.
24:58
Kate: Does it pay?
24:59
John Arndt: After the episode. We're almost there.
25:01
Kate: You keep saying that.
25:03
John Arndt: Okay. Something you can do before you're out of the truck. If you run the business and you're using AI, tell your team which tasks it's doing. Before somebody guesses.
25:12
Kate: Because somebody will guess.
25:14
John Arndt: Somebody always does. And if you sell?
25:16
Kate: That one's mine. I'll do it this time.
25:19
Kate: This week, if you sell to businesses, pull up your state's layoff notice list and check your top accounts against it.
25:25
John Arndt: That's it?
25:26
Kate: I'm not done. Before you send anything to one that's on it, write the email you'd want to get if it were your company. And if that email is no email, send nothing.
25:37
John Arndt: And my rule, in one sentence. The notice is proof of what happened, and everything after that gets the word usually.
25:44
Kate: Usually.
25:45
John Arndt: I'll be saying it in my sleep.
25:47
Kate: And send this to whoever runs your sales team. Before they find the layoff list on their own.
25:51
John Arndt: Before they write my email.
25:54
Kate: They'd do worse. That email was bad, John.
25:57
John Arndt: It was bad. I've made my peace with it. Links are in the show notes. The studies, the California write-ups, and the posts we argued with.
26:04
Kate: So. Back to the top. Does it pay? Checking what the AI did.
26:09
John Arndt: It pays in the emails you don't send.
26:11
Kate: That's not money.
26:12
John Arndt: It's the kind you get to keep.
26:13
Kate: You've been sitting on that one the whole episode.
26:16
John Arndt: I have.
26:17
Kate: It was fine.
26:18
John Arndt: It was better than fine.
26:20
John Arndt: That's After the Demo. I'm John Arndt.
26:22
Kate: And I'm Kate. Check the count, not the costume.