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Push and shove as One Nation eyes its first big win · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Friday, May eighth, twenty twenty six. Older Australians, including
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  Speaker 1: many labor voters, are furious with the federal government for
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  Speaker 1: scrapping their private health insurance rebate. It'll cost many retirees
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  Speaker 1: more than one thousand dollars per year if they don't
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  Speaker 1: want to take their chances in the overcrowded public system.
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  Speaker 1: That's a special report in The Australian Today by our
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  Speaker 1: Health editor Natasha Robinson. One nation's on the brink of
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  Speaker 1: collecting its first federal lower House seat and there's been
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  Speaker 1: pushing and shoving at the polling boots already. Today Political
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  Speaker 1: editor Jeff Chambers on the very dramatic race for Farah.
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  Speaker 1: One of the greatest things about politics is r G
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  Speaker 1: Barjie outside pre polling stations. This is where party volunteers
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  Speaker 1: stand handing out how to vote cards in the weeks
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  Speaker 1: before an election. It's going on right now in the
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  Speaker 1: New south Well seat of Farah, where there's a by
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  Speaker 1: election on Saturday and Coalition front bench at James Patterson
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  Speaker 1: got into a barney with a one Nation volunteer.
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  Speaker 2: Are you getting a video mate video without my name?
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  Speaker 3: By the way, what's your name? You know what my name?
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  Speaker 3: What's your name? Away? You're just you?
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  Speaker 2: I had never sold anyone, did you describe?
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  Speaker 3: Because you don't have permission a video, it's a public play.
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  Speaker 3: You're aligned. That's an assault.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Chambers is The Australian's political editor. Jeff, what was
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  Speaker 1: going on there?
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  Speaker 3: It's not the worst one I've seen.
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  Speaker 4: I think James Patterson, he showed he's up for the
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  Speaker 4: fight as a as a lid right, got up in
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  Speaker 4: the face of this old one Nation bloke. And I
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  Speaker 4: think the One Nation bloke didn't know what to do.
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  Speaker 1: And I know he's a big guy, and he seems
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  Speaker 1: so kind of sort of nerdy and studious in parliament,
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  Speaker 1: doesn't He was interesting to see him get his kind
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  Speaker 1: of country.
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  Speaker 3: It was really interesting to see that.
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  Speaker 4: I think a lot of colleagues would have noticed that
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  Speaker 4: with this other guy, I think tried to grab a
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  Speaker 4: phone and then someone's filming each other. This happens all
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  Speaker 4: the time now, unfortunately on our when we see the booths.
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  Speaker 4: But I was interesting, like One Nation they're so I
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  Speaker 4: guess they've never won a lower House seat, and they're
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  Speaker 4: desperate to win this seat. So I saw their first reaction,
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  Speaker 4: and I knew this wouldn't be their ultimate reaction. And
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  Speaker 4: the first reaction before seeing it was, oh, we condemn this.
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  Speaker 3: This is terrible. This guy won't be on the booth anymore.
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  Speaker 4: Within hours, once people actually saw the vision came in
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  Speaker 4: the One Nations response that I would expect, where it
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  Speaker 4: was like, this is ridiculous, we back our supporter up.
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  Speaker 4: So I thought that was a bit interesting. They didn't
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  Speaker 4: quite get that messaging right. Pauline Hanson probably should have
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  Speaker 4: watched the video properly, maybe talk to the people before
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  Speaker 4: jumping on to talk about it and condemn the person,
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  Speaker 4: because now today we're hearing there one hundred percent behind
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  Speaker 4: them and this is the One Nation way.
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  Speaker 1: It's a kind of micro version of their support for
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  Speaker 1: Ben Robert Smith, which is what they're campaigning on at
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  Speaker 1: those very pre pole boots.
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  Speaker 3: Right.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's about backing the butler, the underdog, and it's
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  Speaker 4: all those things. But it's funny because I was talking
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  Speaker 4: to some senior One Nation people in the last couple
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  Speaker 4: of weeks, and obviously once it emerged that their candidate
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  Speaker 4: had previously approached the Labor Party about running, and there
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  Speaker 4: was talking might have even run as a teal. At
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  Speaker 4: one point I spoke to it and I said, oh,
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  Speaker 4: here we go again. You know, One Nation's track record
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  Speaker 4: will continue. I think it's something like seventy five percent
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  Speaker 4: of MPs that have been elected to the One Nation
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  Speaker 4: Party end up sitting as an independent or not lasting.
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  Speaker 4: And there is a feeling that if this bloke gets up,
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  Speaker 4: there's every chance in the world that he'll just add
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  Speaker 4: to that list and end up being an independent.
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  Speaker 3: By the twenty twenty eight election.
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  Speaker 1: Well, he'll certainly be a better story and I think
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  Speaker 1: one who keeps delivering if he does get elected, Jeff,
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  Speaker 1: So I'll have my fingers crossed for pure story purposes.
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  Speaker 3: Good evening.
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  Speaker 1: The Pharaoh by election race is officially kicking.
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  Speaker 5: Off after certainly formally resigned from Federal Parliament.
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  Speaker 1: It is the end of an era that began almost
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  Speaker 1: a quarter of a century ago.
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  Speaker 4: Fara's metropolitan base is the very vibrant city of Aubury.
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  Speaker 4: A lot of trainers know that Aubrey Rodonga area right
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  Speaker 4: there on the New South Wales Victoria border, beautiful part
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  Speaker 4: of the world and it's over the years become a
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  Speaker 4: much more sort of cosmopolitan metropolitan base. So you've got
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  Speaker 4: a lot of immigrants that have moved to Aubury, and
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  Speaker 4: then you've got what comes outside of Aubury, and there's
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  Speaker 4: quite a big chunk of the elector it is outside.
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  Speaker 4: So what we're going to see on Saturday night is
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  Speaker 4: very much so an Aubrey vote and an outside of
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  Speaker 4: Aubrey vote.
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  Speaker 3: Now, the expectation is.
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  Speaker 4: That the tials will do much stronger in Aubury, and
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  Speaker 4: One Nation will perform very well as you get out
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  Speaker 4: into those regional country air rural areas. So we've got
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  Speaker 4: a liberal, we've got a national, we've got a Teal
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  Speaker 4: or a climate two hundred backed TiAl, even though she's
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  Speaker 4: denying it, she is. And we've got this very colorful
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  Speaker 4: character that One Nation somehow has found and I think
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  Speaker 4: some of them now probably regret.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: So it's the cosmopolitans in the bustling metropolis of Aubrey
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  Speaker 1: going for the till and everybody else presumably going for
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  Speaker 1: one Nation. Do the major parties get a look in
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  Speaker 1: at all?
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  Speaker 4: Not so much. And this is where the preferences will
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  Speaker 4: be really interesting. So there will obviously be people in
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  Speaker 4: Aubury that are going to vote also for one nation,
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  Speaker 4: and what that comes from is this sense of anger
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  Speaker 4: and frustration with all the major parties. Conveniently, Labor isn't running,
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  Speaker 4: so we won't see a very big depressed vote in
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  Speaker 4: a seat that they probably wouldn't win. And they've conveniently
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  Speaker 4: positioned this by election days before the May twelveth budget,
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  Speaker 4: so they'll all have their popcorn out.
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  Speaker 3: Watching the results come in.
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  Speaker 4: And I think that those preferences are going to be really,
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  Speaker 4: really interesting because the assumption that most liberal voters will
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  Speaker 4: preference one nation, I think that will be challenged depending
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  Speaker 4: on where that liberal voter lives. Say it's a liberal
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  Speaker 4: voter in Aubrey, they might not naturally preference one nation.
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  Speaker 4: They might actually preference Milthorpe, who is the independent candidate.
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  Speaker 4: So you might get a scenario where we have a
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  Speaker 4: two pp result by the end of the night that's
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  Speaker 4: actually one nation versus TiAl candidate.
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  Speaker 1: What's the appeal of one nation for a seat like
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  Speaker 1: Pharah Jeff? Is this about the other big issues that
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  Speaker 1: we hear about in the bush all the time, transmission cables,
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  Speaker 1: renewable energy, zones the price of diesel. Is that what
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  Speaker 1: we're talking about here.
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  Speaker 4: Well, the funny thing about Para isn't naturally or typically
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  Speaker 4: a seat that would have been at the top of
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  Speaker 4: one nation's list. One nation is just riding this huge
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  Speaker 4: electoral wave right now after the South Australian election, and
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  Speaker 4: polling's showing that they're still doing really well. So I
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  Speaker 4: think that it ticks a few boxes and the fact
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  Speaker 4: that it is regional, and the fact that you know,
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  Speaker 4: the Nationals and.
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  Speaker 3: Liberals aren't running very strongly there.
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  Speaker 4: But ultimately they are a protest vote and I really
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  Speaker 4: haven't seen any real clear policies from one Nation that
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  Speaker 4: would make you think, oh, they're so much different from
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  Speaker 4: the Libs or the Nats. So what we're going to
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  Speaker 4: see is this continuation of a protest vote. And the
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  Speaker 4: big question for everyone is how good will that vote
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  Speaker 4: be for one nation? Will they break the duck that
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  Speaker 4: historic move to their first lower house seat in the
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  Speaker 4: federal parliament, And if they do win, can they keep
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  Speaker 4: that momentum going towards the twenty twenty eight federal election.
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  Speaker 1: Pulling Hanson came interi federal politics in the nineteen nineties
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  Speaker 1: as of course the person who would go on to
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  Speaker 1: found One Nation. But she was elected as a Liberal,
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  Speaker 1: wasn't she then?
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  Speaker 5: Of course, as soon as she opened her mouth to
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  Speaker 5: tell Australians that Aborigines were getting a free ride on
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  Speaker 5: the taxpayer's back, well, the Liberal Party dropped her like
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  Speaker 5: a hot potato. It now seems that her disendorsement by
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  Speaker 5: the Liberal Party was Pauline Hanson's ticket to Canberra.
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  Speaker 1: Why hasn't she been able to deliver Lower House seats
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  Speaker 1: in the name of Pauline Hanson's One Nation?
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  Speaker 3: The history is really interesting.
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  Speaker 4: So she was the Liberal candidate for Oxley and then
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  Speaker 4: there was a big stink that occurred over things that
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  Speaker 4: was said, and she ended up winning that seat. They
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  Speaker 4: couldn't change her as being a Liberal. But she enters
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  Speaker 4: the Parliament as an independent, so technically not one Nation.
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  Speaker 6: And wished to say, how proud I am to be
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  Speaker 6: here as the independent member for Oxley. I come here
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  Speaker 6: not as a polished politician, but as a woman who
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  Speaker 6: has her fair share of life's knocks.
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  Speaker 3: It's been fascinating.
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  Speaker 4: I think that obviously federal electorates are much bigger and
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  Speaker 4: preferences play a bigger role so typically regional nuts and Libs,
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  Speaker 4: federal seats have had really massive margins in favor of
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  Speaker 4: the big conservative coalition parties. So while one nation might
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  Speaker 4: have done well against when they're writing a higher electoral watermark,
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  Speaker 4: they couldn't quite get there on preferences. And we saw
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  Speaker 4: that as well in labor seats such as the Hunter
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  Speaker 4: where Joel Fitzgibben nearly lost that at the twenty nineteen election.
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  Speaker 4: One nation did really well, but once the preferences started flowing,
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  Speaker 4: they couldn't quite crack it. So I think that because
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  Speaker 4: the Conservative party vote is so depressed, we're certainly seeing
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  Speaker 4: one nation now having a higher primary vote.
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  Speaker 1: One of the issues that one nation talks about a
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  Speaker 1: lot is immigration, and they've certainly had pretty cut through
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  Speaker 1: on that, particularly connecting it to socioeconomic issues like the
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  Speaker 1: fact that how there's a housing supply crisis. It's interesting
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  Speaker 1: how that resonates often in the bush, jeff though, where
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  Speaker 1: perhaps house prices are much cheaper than they are in
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  Speaker 1: the city, where they're feeling the inflow of migrants much
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  Speaker 1: less than people in the cities do. Why and this
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  Speaker 1: is a huge question It applies to populist parties everywhere.
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  Speaker 1: Why do you think that message resonates so strongly in
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  Speaker 1: a seat like Farah outside of the metropolis.
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  Speaker 4: I think ultimately it comes down to a feeling that
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  Speaker 4: beautiful old regional towns and Federation heritage sort of areas
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  Speaker 4: around the country in Tasmania, Queensland, South Australia, they're dying
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  Speaker 4: and you know a lot of their young folks are
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  Speaker 4: having to move to the cities.
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  Speaker 3: There's not enough jobs.
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  Speaker 4: They're not seeing those benefits in life that they know
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  Speaker 4: Australia to have and espouse. I think that all all
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  Speaker 4: that feeds into this sort of disenchantment with the major parties,
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  Speaker 4: and I think they now have lumped in the coalition
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  Speaker 4: who have breached the faith. That's the feeling out there,
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  Speaker 4: and they're looking to other people to say, well, you know,
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  Speaker 4: this isn't working for us, maybe we should give someone
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  Speaker 4: else a go.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up more of my conversation with Jeff Susan Lee
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  Speaker 1: didn't ultimately make it as Liberal leader. She's of course
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  Speaker 1: leaving the Parliament, but she would be the best known
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  Speaker 1: member of the Coalition, better known, i would say, than
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  Speaker 1: Angus Taylor in this seat. I presume she's out on
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  Speaker 1: the Hustings helping them out.
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  Speaker 4: Jeff, Oh, No, Susan Lee has taken a six week
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  Speaker 4: overseas holiday.
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  Speaker 3: And there's been a lot of rumors.
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  Speaker 4: Some people had heard that she was traveling down the
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  Speaker 4: heart of South America, like Jay Guavara the Motorcycle Diaries,
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  Speaker 4: and you know, maybe she was fanging it down Route
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  Speaker 4: sixty six.
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  Speaker 3: But I understand, Yeah, she went solo.
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  Speaker 4: She has got friends overseas and she started up I
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  Speaker 4: heard up somewhere in North Dakota and has made her
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  Speaker 4: way down to Texas on the Greyhound buses. And I
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  Speaker 4: might have spent some time over in Spain enjoying the
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  Speaker 4: spring weather there. And yeah, I think she's gone off
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  Speaker 4: to joy retirement and I've heard that she'll arrive shortly
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  Speaker 4: back after the Fara result comes in.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, should be very zen no matter what the result is.
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  Speaker 1: After her eat pre love experience overseas. But why wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: the Libs ask her Ordernats ask her to come and
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  Speaker 1: give them a hand.
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  Speaker 4: Look, it's a bit of a shamble for both of
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  Speaker 4: those parties. If David Little Proud was still the leader,
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  Speaker 4: the Nationals vote in Farah on Saturday would be absolutely disastrous.
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  Speaker 3: So he's jumped before that happened. But I'm bugging. I'm buggered.
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  Speaker 3: I'll have enough to lead this great party. Would be
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  Speaker 3: the wrong thing for me to do that.
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  Speaker 4: Canavan has shown what a hard worker he is and
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  Speaker 4: he's realistic in the fact that I don't think either
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  Speaker 4: of the major Conservative parties think that they can win
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  Speaker 4: the by election, but he's giving it a crack. And
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  Speaker 4: then Angus Taylor has spent some time there, but obviously
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  Speaker 4: as a new leader you don't want to be attached
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  Speaker 4: too much to a heavy defeat.
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  Speaker 3: They're operating in an environment where.
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  Speaker 4: The expectation is that it'll be either the One Nation
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  Speaker 4: or the independent candidate that wins that seat.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for joining us, Thanks Claire. Jeff
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  Speaker 1: Chambers is The Australian's political editor. You can check out
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: all his reporting and analysis anytime at the Australian dot
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  Speaker 1: com AU. Course, we'll have live coverage of the race
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  Speaker 1: for Farah on Saturday