Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / There MIGHT Be Some Hope Left for GOP in the Midterms

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There MIGHT Be Some Hope Left for GOP in the Midterms · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:01
  Less than 30 days remain before the midterm elections,
• 0:04
  and it is possible there are
• 0:05
  a few rays of sunshine
• 0:08
  for the Republicans.
• 0:09
  We can dig into the silver linings on the clouds here in just a moment,
• 0:12
  but there's some things to point to.
• 0:14
  Senator Angela Paxton,
• 0:15
  she's a state senator here in Texas,
• 0:17
  she has a new political ad out there.
• 0:18
  It might
• 0:19
  give us some information on how
• 0:21
  the Texas race is going and the messaging strategy from the GOP,
• 0:24
  uh,
• 0:25
  on the Ken Paxton
• 0:26
  race,
• 0:26
  that's her ex-husband,
• 0:28
  plus what's happening
• 0:29
  in politics in the bayou.
• 0:30
  We have a new
• 0:30
  candidate countdown coming your way from Louisiana.
• 0:33
  All of that and more coming up tonight on Predictable with Stu.
• 0:51
  All right,
• 0:51
  here we go.
• 0:52
  We've got a big show for you today.
• 0:54
  I wanna tell you if you're just getting into prediction markets,
• 0:56
  you're interested in them,
• 0:57
  we have a new
• 0:58
  video out at predictable101.com.
• 1:01
  There are 5 videos there.
• 1:02
  They're like 3 minutes in length to kind of
• 1:04
  get you to the very basics of prediction markets
• 1:06
  and all sorts of other information there.
• 1:08
  If you're just getting started,
• 1:09
  great place to go
• 1:10
  to check it out.
• 1:12
  We'll try to,
• 1:12
  of course,
• 1:12
  explain as much as we can here on the main program as well.
• 1:15
  Uh,
• 1:15
  and we have,
• 1:16
  of course,
• 1:16
  the predictable midterm consensus,
• 1:18
  the PMC.
• 1:19
  It's our election model
• 1:20
  that I built.
• 1:21
  It's got,
• 1:22
  uh,
• 1:22
  basically measures kind of every election input you can possibly imagine.
• 1:26
  Um,
• 1:26
  and if you look at it,
• 1:27
  there are,
• 1:27
  I try to pull 5 points out of every update.
• 1:30
  Um,
• 1:30
  so we just updated on October 3rd.
• 1:32
  There's kind of five points,
• 1:33
  little write-ups
• 1:34
  there at the top of that piece.
• 1:35
  It's at predictableShow.com,
• 1:37
  and then you get all the numbers.
• 1:38
  If you go down and scroll down a little bit,
• 1:39
  you'll see,
• 1:40
  uh,
• 1:40
  right now,
• 1:41
  uh,
• 1:41
  it's not so good in the House,
• 1:42
  88.1% chance for
• 1:44
  Republicans to win the House,
• 1:45
  62.7% chance for Democrats to win
• 1:48
  the Senate.
• 1:49
  Uh,
• 1:49
  that is where that,
• 1:50
  uh,
• 1:50
  goes right now.
• 1:51
  I see,
• 1:51
  I don't know if I said that right,
• 1:52
  but anyway,
• 1:53
  yeah,
• 1:53
  Democrats are favored of both.
• 1:54
  That's not a huge surprise if
• 1:55
  you're following this stuff relatively collectively,
• 1:57
  correct,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  or closely on the election stuff.
• 2:00
  Um,
• 2:01
  I will say,
• 2:01
  um,
• 2:02
  that's a great tool for you,
• 2:03
  the PMC available at predictableShow.com.
• 2:05
  Our friends over at Blaze Media,
• 2:06
  by the way,
• 2:06
  have just developed a new tool of their own for the elections.
• 2:09
  This is really cool.
• 2:10
  This is,
• 2:10
  uh,
• 2:11
  the,
• 2:11
  uh,
• 2:11
  poll Watch 2026 midterms.
• 2:13
  They are,
• 2:14
  uh,
• 2:14
  kind of outlining every single poll
• 2:16
  and
• 2:17
  putting that all together for you.
• 2:18
  If you are a Blaze Media,
• 2:20
  uh.
• 2:20
  TV subscriber,
• 2:21
  you get access to this.
• 2:22
  There's just like,
• 2:23
  I mean,
• 2:23
  legitimately like I think thousands of polls
• 2:26
  they've put into the system,
• 2:27
  really easy ways to understand
• 2:28
  the election as well,
• 2:29
  kind of an additional thing
• 2:31
  on top of it if you're a Blaze TV subscriber,
• 2:32
  you get both,
• 2:33
  uh,
• 2:34
  so that's pretty cool,
• 2:34
  um,
• 2:35
  over on,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:36
  on,
• 2:36
  on,
• 2:36
  uh,
• 2:37
  that particular,
• 2:38
  uh,
• 2:38
  program.
• 2:38
  It's blazetv.com.
• 2:39
  OK,
• 2:40
  um,
• 2:40
  29 days till the midterms.
• 2:42
  Early voting is happening now already in 9 states,
• 2:44
  so this election's already started.
• 2:46
  Uh,
• 2:46
  you know,
• 2:47
  you're looking at,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:47
  what,
• 2:48
  almost 8 or 18% of the,
• 2:50
  uh,
• 2:50
  states are already voting.
• 2:52
  Um,
• 2:52
  more coming up this week,
• 2:53
  October 5th,
• 2:54
  California,
• 2:55
  Montana,
• 2:55
  and,
• 2:56
  uh,
• 2:56
  what's today's date?
• 2:57
  I have no idea.
• 2:57
  What's today's date?
• 2:58
  Anyone know?
• 2:59
  The 5th.
• 3:00
  0,
• 3:00
  today's the 5th.
• 3:00
  OK,
• 3:01
  today is California,
• 3:02
  Montana,
• 3:02
  and Nebraska.
• 3:03
  I am in like election haze right now.
• 3:05
  I,
• 3:06
  all I'm thinking about is the elections all the time.
• 3:07
  My wife is like,
• 3:08
  oh,
• 3:08
  did you hear this huge news story that everyone's talking about?
• 3:10
  No,
• 3:11
  I didn't.
• 3:11
  Does it,
• 3:11
  does it affect the election?
• 3:12
  No,
• 3:12
  that I didn't hear about it.
• 3:14
  Uh,
• 3:14
  October 6th,
• 3:14
  Indiana,
• 3:15
  New Mexico,
• 3:15
  Ohio,
• 3:16
  Wyoming,
• 3:16
  October 7th in Arizona,
• 3:18
  and then next week at Georgia,
• 3:19
  Idaho,
• 3:19
  and more
• 3:21
  on the way.
• 3:21
  And a lot of people ask me all the time,
• 3:23
  is it time to panic?
• 3:24
  And the answer to that quite clearly is no.
• 3:26
  Why?
• 3:26
  Because panic day is October 19th.
• 3:29
  We're all going to panic on October 19th if these polls
• 3:32
  and,
• 3:32
  uh,
• 3:32
  this information doesn't.
• 3:35
  Is that a giant meteor about to hit a giant red elephant that's larger than the entire
• 3:40
  Washington DC area?
• 3:41
  That's,
• 3:42
  I would be more scared honestly of the elephant.
• 3:44
  Uh,
• 3:45
  well,
• 3:45
  I guess the,
• 3:46
  the meteor would be bad too.
• 3:47
  But,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:47
  October 19th,
• 3:48
  we,
• 3:48
  we came up with this date
• 3:50
  because
• 3:51
  people were asking me all the time,
• 3:52
  is it time to panic?
• 3:53
  And,
• 3:54
  you know,
• 3:54
  look,
• 3:54
  it is it time to worry?
• 3:55
  Is it time to be concerned?
• 3:56
  If you're thinking about,
• 3:57
  I don't know,
• 3:58
  should I get involved in this election?
• 3:59
  Am I,
• 4:00
  should I make some extra phone calls?
• 4:01
  Like,
• 4:01
  what should I do?
• 4:02
  That we're beyond that day.
• 4:04
  Get involved if you want your candidates to win.
• 4:07
  This is real.
• 4:08
  I know it sometimes it feels like the polls say the,
• 4:10
  uh,
• 4:10
  the same thing every single time and they,
• 4:12
  they wind up being wrong.
• 4:13
  I get that.
• 4:13
  I know that's how a lot of people feel.
• 4:15
  That doesn't mean,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:17
  number one,
• 4:18
  that it's been true in every election.
• 4:19
  We have seen some mistakes,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:21
  typically when Donald Trump has been running.
• 4:23
  He's not running this time.
• 4:25
  The midterm elections during the Trump era actually have done
• 4:27
  a pretty good job at measuring uh the Democratic support,
• 4:30
  including in 2018 when Democrats had a really good year.
• 4:33
  So it is important to,
• 4:35
  I mean,
• 4:35
  I think it's important to get all this information so you know what it is.
• 4:38
  Whether you care or not.
• 4:39
  Um,
• 4:40
  so that's,
• 4:40
  that's there,
• 4:41
  and I will say that like,
• 4:42
  when it comes to prediction markets,
• 4:44
  I'm looking at this and saying,
• 4:45
  OK,
• 4:45
  if these,
• 4:46
  if we don't get a change in information over the next couple of weeks,
• 4:49
  what my panic is going to be,
• 4:51
  and by the way,
• 4:51
  I don't really consider this panic,
• 4:53
  I consider it preparedness.
• 4:55
  There may be positions that I trim that I currently hold,
• 4:58
  um,
• 4:59
  there may be positions that I pick up more on
• 5:02
  that go the opposite way of,
• 5:04
  you know,
• 5:04
  where I was.
• 5:05
  I may switch sides on some of these.
• 5:06
  That's all OK.
• 5:08
  When you're trading prediction markets,
• 5:10
  it's important to,
• 5:11
  to not only be comfortable with the position,
• 5:13
  uh,
• 5:13
  the size of the position that you have,
• 5:14
  but also the side of the position that you have.
• 5:16
  Um,
• 5:17
  you know,
• 5:17
  if you pick a side and you start growing it and growing and growing it,
• 5:19
  and not blindly,
• 5:21
  or sort of blindly looking at this information
• 5:23
  without,
• 5:23
  you know,
• 5:24
  uh,
• 5:24
  without really considering whether you're positioned correctly in a,
• 5:28
  in a,
• 5:28
  in a,
• 5:28
  in a particular election,
• 5:30
  it's likely you'll get burned.
• 5:33
  Now,
• 5:33
  I've gone through a lot,
• 5:34
  I've gone over a decade of elections.
• 5:36
  I've never been burned like that.
• 5:37
  I,
• 5:37
  I'm,
• 5:38
  I will say unlike other elections,
• 5:40
  I'm concerned about it this time
• 5:42
  because the data does show
• 5:44
  that
• 5:45
  catastrophic results for Republicans is possible.
• 5:48
  They're possible.
• 5:49
  Doesn't mean they're likely,
• 5:50
  doesn't mean they're definitely gonna happen.
• 5:52
  The media right now,
• 5:52
  I would say is in,
• 5:53
  oh my gosh,
• 5:54
  it's time to get the,
• 5:56
  the Hillary Clinton party hats back out and celebrate,
• 5:58
  and like I just don't think you should be there.
• 6:01
  That being said,
• 6:02
  there are real risks in this election.
• 6:03
  We're gonna go through them a lot this week and
• 6:05
  we're gonna look at where we should be positioning ourselves
• 6:07
  in these.
• 6:07
  Are there safe places?
• 6:09
  We're gonna tell you about one of those coming up in the show as well.
• 6:11
  I wanna tell you about this New York Times poll that came out.
• 6:14
  Now,
• 6:14
  just so you know,
• 6:14
  the New York Times,
• 6:15
  you know,
• 6:15
  it's,
• 6:16
  it's the paper of record.
• 6:18
  You might look at the New York Times and say,
• 6:19
  gosh,
• 6:19
  it's this annoying liberal source that is wrong all the time.
• 6:22
  There's a lot to that,
• 6:23
  and we point that stuff out all the time.
• 6:26
  We've talked about their coverage over and over again in
• 6:27
  this election where I think they've gotten things wrong.
• 6:30
  Their data department is better than the news department
• 6:32
  by a significant margin.
• 6:34
  Um,
• 6:35
  and the New York Times Sienna poll
• 6:36
  is generally,
• 6:38
  uh,
• 6:38
  thought of as a really good poll.
• 6:40
  Um,
• 6:41
  it doesn't mean it,
• 6:42
  it's right all the time.
• 6:43
  Uh,
• 6:44
  that doesn't mean you can't find examples of it being wrong,
• 6:46
  but a lot of this has to do with process,
• 6:48
  and,
• 6:48
  you know,
• 6:48
  one of the things,
• 6:49
  it's really boring what I'm about to tell you to do,
• 6:51
  but,
• 6:52
  uh,
• 6:52
  one of the things that's helpful in understanding this stuff is
• 6:54
  listen to just the people who designed these polls talk about it
• 6:57
  for hours and hours and hours on end.
• 6:59
  Now,
• 6:59
  do I want you to do that?
• 7:01
  Probably not,
• 7:01
  cause it would,
• 7:02
  it would,
• 7:02
  you'd be very bored,
• 7:03
  but
• 7:04
  You realize that these guys are,
• 7:05
  I,
• 7:06
  I'm not saying there aren't people who are just fraudulently making up polls.
• 7:08
  We know that's happened.
• 7:10
  We know that does happen.
• 7:11
  We know that campaigns release polls all the time that are skewed in their favor,
• 7:15
  uh,
• 7:15
  in one way or another.
• 7:17
  But when you listen to these polling experts look at the,
• 7:19
  think,
• 7:20
  you know,
• 7:21
  talk through how they're dealing with the fact that
• 7:23
  they can't get anybody on the phone anymore.
• 7:25
  The fact that they've,
• 7:27
  they know they've underestimated
• 7:29
  Republican voters
• 7:30
  in multiple elections recently,
• 7:32
  how are they dealing with that?
• 7:33
  Um,
• 7:35
  you can hear them,
• 7:36
  they're really trying to get this stuff right.
• 7:38
  Um,
• 7:38
  not everybody,
• 7:39
  but they are trying.
• 7:40
  I think the New York Times,
• 7:42
  um,
• 7:42
  tries to get this right
• 7:44
  when with their polling,
• 7:45
  uh,
• 7:45
  they do go pretty deep.
• 7:47
  That doesn't mean that they're,
• 7:48
  the judgments that they're making,
• 7:49
  and there are a lot of judgment calls
• 7:51
  in this,
• 7:52
  uh,
• 7:52
  scenario,
• 7:53
  uh,
• 7:54
  it doesn't mean those judgment calls are right.
• 7:55
  So
• 7:56
  that's all the grain of salt I want you to take here as we go with this.
• 7:58
  Senate races in Republican states tilt toward Democrats,
• 8:01
  polls fine.
• 8:02
  Now,
• 8:04
  I found this to be interesting because they went through the 5
• 8:08
  most important states
• 8:11
  for Democrats to take the Senate.
• 8:12
  That was kind of the polling that they did.
• 8:14
  So it's not a nationwide poll,
• 8:15
  it's not a poll of every race,
• 8:16
  it's not a poll of every important race,
• 8:18
  it's just a poll of the 5 most
• 8:19
  crucial states for Democrats to consider,
• 8:22
  you know,
• 8:22
  trying to win
• 8:23
  here in this particular,
• 8:25
  uh,
• 8:25
  situation.
• 8:25
  And if you look at this and think,
• 8:27
  well,
• 8:28
  Um,
• 8:28
  and the way that the reason why they came up with these states quickly
• 8:30
  is North Carolina is,
• 8:32
  and I said this weeks and weeks and weeks ago,
• 8:34
  looking like a lost cause.
• 8:35
  North Carolina is a Republican-held seat that is
• 8:38
  almost definitely going to go to Democrats.
• 8:40
  They've got a candidate there that's very popular in the state,
• 8:42
  Roy Cooper.
• 8:43
  Uh,
• 8:43
  it's a state that I've had money on for a while,
• 8:45
  I'm up considerably in it.
• 8:47
  Uh,
• 8:47
  and,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:48
  I don't know if there's much left there.
• 8:49
  Frankly,
• 8:50
  there might be a few points of profit,
• 8:51
  uh,
• 8:52
  but I do think that Cooper will win that race,
• 8:54
  giving the Democrats one pickup.
• 8:56
  They need 4 pickups,
• 8:57
  assuming they hold all their states,
• 8:58
  and that does include things like Maine,
• 9:00
  which is gonna be really hard for,
• 9:02
  or excuse me,
• 9:02
  not Maine,
• 9:02
  um,
• 9:03
  uh,
• 9:04
  uh,
• 9:04
  Michigan,
• 9:05
  which is,
• 9:05
  you know,
• 9:05
  gonna be hard for them to hold.
• 9:06
  It's a close race.
• 9:07
  Here are the 5 states that they identified as really
• 9:10
  important for Democrats that they need to win 3 of
• 9:12
  Texas,
• 9:13
  Alaska,
• 9:13
  Ohio,
• 9:14
  Iowa,
• 9:15
  and
• 9:16
  Believe it or not,
• 9:17
  Kansas,
• 9:18
  the fact that we're talking about Kansas as a,
• 9:20
  uh,
• 9:20
  a 50/50 race is amazing.
• 9:22
  But here's what we're talking about.
• 9:23
  Let me give you the overall control here of what,
• 9:25
  this is what the,
• 9:26
  and we're just gonna believe these polls for a second,
• 9:28
  not ask questions about them.
• 9:30
  This is the result that they came up with.
• 9:31
  In Texas,
• 9:32
  they have Tallarico up over Paxton by
• 9:34
  6 points,
• 9:36
  51 to 45.
• 9:37
  In Alaska,
• 9:38
  it's even
• 9:39
  wider.
• 9:40
  Alaska has Mary Peltola at 50.
• 9:43
  And Sullivan at 43,
• 9:45
  a 7-point
• 9:46
  difference.
• 9:47
  In Ohio,
• 9:48
  Brown has the lead 49 to 46 over Houste.
• 9:51
  In Iowa,
• 9:52
  the one,
• 9:53
  bright spot here in this polling,
• 9:54
  uh,
• 9:55
  for,
• 9:55
  and it's a very small bright spot,
• 9:57
  but Ashley Hinson up 48 to 47
• 10:00
  over Josh Turrick.
• 10:01
  And then,
• 10:02
  uh,
• 10:02
  in Kansas,
• 10:03
  a 45-45 tie.
• 10:06
  Between Hamilton
• 10:07
  and Marshall in a state
• 10:09
  that has not
• 10:10
  listed a Democratic senator
• 10:12
  in almost 100 years.
• 10:15
  We've got a 4545 race
• 10:18
  going on.
• 10:19
  Um,
• 10:19
  I wanna break that,
• 10:20
  those polls down here in a second,
• 10:21
  but let me give you the predictable Senate board first.
• 10:23
  This is,
• 10:23
  by the way,
• 10:24
  a free tool available to you
• 10:25
  at predictableshow.com.
• 10:27
  You can kind of take the predictions,
• 10:28
  you can move these around,
• 10:29
  you can see where control goes.
• 10:30
  You can send,
• 10:31
  uh,
• 10:32
  this to your friends.
• 10:32
  There's a share feature we just added.
• 10:34
  You can share your board.
• 10:35
  This is the board the last time.
• 10:36
  I updated it,
• 10:37
  which does need an update at this point.
• 10:39
  Um,
• 10:39
  click over to your board if we could here,
• 10:41
  Adam,
• 10:41
  and we're gonna drag this around to what the New York Times thinks is happening.
• 10:44
  Minnesota,
• 10:45
  uh,
• 10:46
  Alaska,
• 10:46
  and Ohio would be in the lean Democrat.
• 10:49
  Michigan would go to the lean Democrat as well
• 10:51
  in this particular situation,
• 10:53
  Adam.
• 10:54
  Um,
• 10:55
  there we go.
• 10:55
  And then,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:56
  Iowa would stay there,
• 10:57
  Texas,
• 10:57
  and,
• 10:58
  uh,
• 10:58
  Texas would move over to the lean Democrat.
• 11:01
  Kansas would move to the toss-up.
• 11:04
  Uh,
• 11:04
  and that is basically where the New York Times has it right now.
• 11:07
  Now,
• 11:08
  Maine,
• 11:08
  they did not poll
• 11:09
  here,
• 11:10
  so like,
• 11:10
  you know,
• 11:11
  they did poll Maine,
• 11:12
  didn't they?
• 11:13
  I did,
• 11:13
  they did pull Maine and,
• 11:14
  and Collins was actually ahead in that race.
• 11:16
  So move,
• 11:16
  uh,
• 11:17
  Collins over in Maine over to the lean Republican.
• 11:20
  for this exercise
• 11:21
  and give me that total at the top so we can see what it is
• 11:23
  right there.
• 11:24
  Uh,
• 11:24
  if the Times polling plays out exactly as they,
• 11:27
  you know,
• 11:28
  predicted here or their poll,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:30
  seemed to lean,
• 11:31
  which of course won't happen,
• 11:33
  but if it did,
• 11:33
  it would be 51-48 with a tie in Kansas.
• 11:36
  Even if you give that one to Republicans,
• 11:38
  Democrats take control of the House
• 11:40
  and the Senate in that scenario
• 11:42
  and,
• 11:43
  uh,
• 11:43
  likely are,
• 11:44
  are going to,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:45
  do all sorts of interesting things with that power.
• 11:47
  They have subpoena power in the House,
• 11:49
  that will be interesting.
• 11:50
  Uh,
• 11:51
  they will have,
• 11:52
  uh,
• 11:52
  power in the Senate,
• 11:53
  uh,
• 11:53
  not only,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:54
  for
• 11:54
  all sorts of different,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:56
  things including investigations and such,
• 11:57
  but also
• 11:58
  importantly,
• 11:59
  Supreme Court nominees,
• 12:00
  right?
• 12:00
  They can,
• 12:01
  they can say no to any of Trump's Supreme Court nominees should one,
• 12:04
  retire or.
• 12:06
  Uh,
• 12:06
  have a health issue or God knows what else.
• 12:09
  Uh,
• 12:09
  so it will be interesting if the Democrats take the Senate.
• 12:12
  Do we see
• 12:13
  most likely
• 12:14
  either Alito
• 12:15
  or Thomas
• 12:16
  decide they wanna retire
• 12:18
  and name a new justice
• 12:20
  before
• 12:20
  the Senate turns over.
• 12:22
  That will be a.
• 12:23
  Massive discussion
• 12:24
  that we will have and like people keep asking me like,
• 12:26
  well,
• 12:26
  what's gonna happen after the election with your show?
• 12:28
  Well,
• 12:28
  obviously right now we're talking a lot about
• 12:29
  the election cause there's a month left,
• 12:31
  right?
• 12:31
  And we've hit a lot,
• 12:32
  the election's always gonna be a lead issue
• 12:34
  of this program,
• 12:35
  but like there's a really good example,
• 12:37
  what's gonna happen with the Supreme Court.
• 12:40
  Uh,
• 12:41
  if in that two-month period,
• 12:42
  will Alito or Thomas,
• 12:43
  uh,
• 12:43
  retire,
• 12:44
  who would be named a successor in that scenario?
• 12:47
  Um,
• 12:47
  we have that,
• 12:48
  of course,
• 12:48
  there's all the other categories that we talk about often,
• 12:50
  sports and culture and,
• 12:52
  um,
• 12:52
  you know,
• 12:53
  all sorts of different things.
• 12:54
  But the Supreme Court is gonna be fast,
• 12:55
  and then we're gonna get into 2028 really quickly.
• 12:57
  Uh,
• 12:57
  if you remember in 20,
• 12:59
  after the 2020
• 13:01
  or 2022 midterms,
• 13:03
  Trump announced almost immediately.
• 13:05
  And I think that that is going to become a little bit more normal,
• 13:09
  those early announcements to get out in front.
• 13:11
  So,
• 13:11
  that's what's going on.
• 13:12
  Let me give you another couple of breakdowns of the poll.
• 13:14
  This is,
• 13:14
  again,
• 13:14
  from the New York Times,
• 13:16
  uh,
• 13:16
  looking at these issues,
• 13:17
  they're,
• 13:17
  I mean,
• 13:18
  look,
• 13:18
  I'll be honest with you,
• 13:19
  pretty catastrophic.
• 13:21
  In these 5 states,
• 13:22
  healthcare,
• 13:23
  Democrats always win the healthcare thing.
• 13:24
  I don't know why
• 13:25
  they do in every poll I've ever seen in my entire life,
• 13:28
  but even winning in states like Kansas here by 5,
• 13:31
  up to Iowa by 17 points,
• 13:33
  which is a really big number.
• 13:35
  Uh,
• 13:35
  tariffs,
• 13:36
  uh,
• 13:36
  you know,
• 13:37
  you've got 14 points in Alaska.
• 13:39
  Uh,
• 13:39
  Alaska hit hard by tariffs,
• 13:41
  Iowa 6,
• 13:42
  Kansas and Ohio,
• 13:43
  even for both parties,
• 13:44
  Texas,
• 13:44
  a 9 point margin for Democrats.
• 13:46
  Democrats lead in every single state.
• 13:48
  When it comes to cost of living,
• 13:50
  11,
• 13:50
  531,
• 13:51
  and 10 points,
• 13:52
  uh,
• 13:53
  doing what's best for ordinary people.
• 13:55
  Democrats lead all five states,
• 13:56
  8714,
• 13:58
  and 14 in Texas.
• 13:59
  That's a big 1.
• 14:00
  14 in Texas.
• 14:02
  Data centers,
• 14:03
  uh,
• 14:03
  544,
• 14:04
  11,
• 14:05
  and 8 are the Democratic leads there.
• 14:07
  A little bit more as we get toward the bottom of this chart.
• 14:10
  Of disagreement,
• 14:11
  as you see,
• 14:12
  being an effective senator
• 14:13
  is really more about candidate quality,
• 14:16
  um,
• 14:16
  you know,
• 14:16
  you see Alaska,
• 14:18
  uh,
• 14:18
  and Iowa about even
• 14:20
  Kansas actually favoring the Republican by a couple of points.
• 14:23
  Again,
• 14:24
  he's going against a complete novice
• 14:26
  who is a pastor at a church,
• 14:28
  um,
• 14:28
  there.
• 14:29
  With Hamilton,
• 14:29
  who,
• 14:30
  you know,
• 14:30
  I don't think certainly has no
• 14:32
  experience in this,
• 14:33
  in this field at all.
• 14:34
  Sometimes that can be good if you're in an anti-incumbent year,
• 14:37
  but when you're talking about building an being an effective senator,
• 14:39
  I don't think a lot of people even in Kansas that are
• 14:41
  voting for Hamilton think he's gonna know how to do the job.
• 14:43
  Uh,
• 14:44
  and then you have Ohio and Texas,
• 14:45
  uh,
• 14:45
  going the other way.
• 14:46
  You see Texas there,
• 14:47
  by the way.
• 14:48
  A 7 point margin
• 14:49
  for James Tallarico.
• 14:51
  Why?
• 14:51
  I mean,
• 14:52
  look,
• 14:52
  Paxson is just not popular.
• 14:53
  He's good,
• 14:54
  it's a,
• 14:54
  this is
• 14:55
  as tough as a situation as you can get for a Republican in the state.
• 14:58
  And then,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 14:59
  when it comes to immigration,
• 15:00
  Republicans still favored,
• 15:01
  but the,
• 15:01
  the margin is different.
• 15:02
  I mean,
• 15:03
  2 points in Alaska,
• 15:04
  6 in Iowa,
• 15:05
  2 in Kansas,
• 15:06
  3
• 15:07
  in Ohio,
• 15:07
  and amazingly,
• 15:09
  even in Texas.
• 15:11
  This again has to do with what is a perceived
• 15:14
  crackdown on uh immigration that has gone beyond what
• 15:18
  many people who voted for Donald Trump believed it would.
• 15:21
  Um,
• 15:22
  again,
• 15:23
  I think a lot of that has to do with
• 15:25
  messaging and a lot of that has to do with what was promoted and what wasn't,
• 15:28
  particularly in the early days of the Trump administration.
• 15:31
  Um,
• 15:31
  but that is a real concern for
• 15:34
  Texas in particular because you have a very large Hispanic population,
• 15:37
  which,
• 15:37
  by the way,
• 15:37
  I'll show you in these polls
• 15:38
  has really kind of turned
• 15:40
  on,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:41
  the president and his party.
• 15:42
  Uh,
• 15:43
  you know,
• 15:43
  this is a group of people who kind of switched.
• 15:45
  They were Democrats forever.
• 15:47
  They went to Republicans one time.
• 15:49
  Republicans were like,
• 15:49
  now they're gonna be here forever.
• 15:51
  Not the right thing,
• 15:52
  as I said,
• 15:53
  by the way,
• 15:53
  at the time.
• 15:54
  We talk about redistricting some of these things in,
• 15:56
  in,
• 15:56
  in Texas in particular,
• 15:57
  like,
• 15:58
  oh well,
• 15:58
  we'll just take this one because we did so well with Hispanics.
• 16:00
  Yeah,
• 16:00
  do you know that is that gonna last?
• 16:02
  These dependable voters for your side?
• 16:04
  I'm terribly nervous about it,
• 16:06
  um,
• 16:06
  as a person who is conservative and cares
• 16:09
  about,
• 16:09
  you know,
• 16:09
  conservatives winning these elections.
• 16:11
  Um,
• 16:11
  let's look over at the CBS polls.
• 16:15
  Um,
• 16:15
  CBS News battleground tracker poll finds Democrats maintain House advantage
• 16:19
  amid concern about prices.
• 16:21
  This is how they project the House to be,
• 16:23
  to kind of turn out 229 to 206.
• 16:25
  You do see their range,
• 16:27
  uh,
• 16:27
  their estimate of a range
• 16:29
  is 216 to 237.
• 16:31
  You need 218 seats in the House,
• 16:34
  218.
• 16:35
  So
• 16:35
  the fact that their outward range is 216
• 16:38
  means that the Republicans still have a chance
• 16:40
  there,
• 16:41
  but
• 16:41
  that's why you see a lot of these prediction markets in the nineties right now.
• 16:45
  Some of the prediction models,
• 16:46
  um,
• 16:47
  that,
• 16:47
  you know,
• 16:47
  the people who are modeling this election,
• 16:48
  I think,
• 16:49
  uh,
• 16:50
  50 + 1 has the Republicans at 99%.
• 16:54
  To lose
• 16:55
  the house.
• 16:56
  99%.
• 16:59
  You know,
• 16:59
  I think Nate Silver has it like 92,
• 17:01
  93%,
• 17:01
  right?
• 17:02
  So there's,
• 17:02
  there are varying things that some places only have it at 75%,
• 17:06
  but,
• 17:06
  uh,
• 17:07
  99%,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:08
  is where that goes.
• 17:09
  And so,
• 17:10
  you look at this and you say,
• 17:10
  all right,
• 17:11
  well,
• 17:11
  where are we with all of this?
• 17:13
  Is there any good news
• 17:14
  at all?
• 17:16
  Yeah,
• 17:16
  there's a little,
• 17:17
  there's a little hope.
• 17:18
  Let's get to that.
• 17:32
  Ah,
• 17:33
  yes,
• 17:33
  the ray of sunshine.
• 17:35
  Is there one,
• 17:35
  kinda.
• 17:37
  And this one didn't really show up in the polls,
• 17:39
  but I want to show you
• 17:41
  how things could turn relatively quickly over the next 4 weeks.
• 17:45
  Because what we've seen now is
• 17:48
  there are major gaps in some of these candidates,
• 17:50
  but one of the big problems is Republican voters
• 17:53
  kind of like,
• 17:54
  uh,
• 17:54
  about this election.
• 17:56
  It's not a presidential election,
• 17:57
  so a lot of people who get interested in politics only once every 4 years,
• 18:00
  not all that drawn in by this.
• 18:03
  And,
• 18:03
  you know,
• 18:04
  the people who do,
• 18:05
  a lot of people who are kind of like,
• 18:07
  you know,
• 18:07
  maybe never loved Donald Trump in the first place,
• 18:09
  maybe never loved,
• 18:10
  loved,
• 18:10
  were never particularly MAGA in the first place,
• 18:13
  are looking at this and saying,
• 18:14
  gosh,
• 18:15
  you know,
• 18:15
  I
• 18:16
  never really loved this guy anyway,
• 18:17
  and now things aren't going that well.
• 18:19
  I've held my nose and voted for them in the past,
• 18:21
  but
• 18:22
  this time I'm not gonna bother,
• 18:23
  I'm not gonna show up,
• 18:24
  or
• 18:24
  I'm gonna vote for the Democrat.
• 18:26
  There are some people who believe that.
• 18:27
  And again,
• 18:27
  when we're talking about these elections,
• 18:29
  they're razor thin margins.
• 18:30
  These,
• 18:30
  these little numbers
• 18:32
  matter.
• 18:32
  But let me show you
• 18:34
  how this could change in the next couple of weeks.
• 18:36
  This is a question from the CBS News,
• 18:39
  who say,
• 18:39
  people who say they will definitely vote in the election.
• 18:42
  Some polls do this and say this is what likely voters are,
• 18:45
  right?
• 18:45
  If you say you're definitely gonna vote,
• 18:47
  you're a likely voter.
• 18:47
  If you say,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:48
  I might vote,
• 18:49
  they don't put you in that likely voter,
• 18:51
  um,
• 18:51
  uh,
• 18:52
  group.
• 18:53
  This is,
• 18:54
  this is how this shows up in a poll that's pretty bad for Republicans
• 18:57
  overall.
• 18:58
  84% of Democrats say they are
• 19:01
  definitely voting,
• 19:01
  82% of independents say they are definitely voting,
• 19:05
  and 77% of Republicans
• 19:07
  are definitely voting.
• 19:09
  Now you could see,
• 19:09
  obviously,
• 19:10
  it's true,
• 19:11
  the enthusiasm gap,
• 19:12
  uh,
• 19:12
  seems to be real in almost all polling,
• 19:15
  this does seem to show up.
• 19:16
  So I'm not saying that this is a fake poll.
• 19:18
  I'm not saying that none of this matters,
• 19:20
  cause I think it does.
• 19:22
  However,
• 19:22
  keep,
• 19:23
  keep that pull up there for a second.
• 19:25
  One thing I will say,
• 19:26
  when you look at this poll.
• 19:28
  Is it's real,
• 19:29
  the gap isn't that big.
• 19:32
  If Republicans over the next month,
• 19:34
  can get interested in this election,
• 19:36
  woken up enough
• 19:38
  to turn that 77% of definitely vote
• 19:41
  into
• 19:42
  80,
• 19:43
  81,
• 19:44
  82,
• 19:45
  they don't need to get as high as Democrats,
• 19:47
  they just need to just get to 80,
• 19:49
  81,
• 19:49
  8,
• 19:50
  maybe 82%.
• 19:52
  If that moves 4 or 5 points,
• 19:56
  what we're talking about most likely
• 19:58
  is a Republican Senate.
• 20:00
  The Republican Senate
• 20:02
  was a thing,
• 20:03
  and has a,
• 20:04
  is a thing I took a,
• 20:04
  a,
• 20:05
  a moderately moderate position.
• 20:07
  I think it was a medium position or a small position
• 20:08
  on,
• 20:09
  uh,
• 20:09
  the Republicans to win the Senate months ago,
• 20:12
  not because I had massive faith in how this is gonna turn out for Republicans,
• 20:16
  but because they have a massive advantage on the map.
• 20:18
  They,
• 20:19
  all they have to do is win in states where they won by double digits two years ago.
• 20:24
  This should not be a heavy lift.
• 20:26
  They won Ohio by 13 points.
• 20:29
  They won,
• 20:29
  I think,
• 20:30
  or,
• 20:30
  yeah,
• 20:30
  I think it was at 13.
• 20:31
  Uh,
• 20:31
  they won,
• 20:32
  uh,
• 20:32
  Iowa by something like 13 points.
• 20:35
  They won Texas by,
• 20:36
  I think,
• 20:36
  14 points.
• 20:37
  These are not states that
• 20:39
  Kansas
• 20:40
  was something like
• 20:41
  17 or 18 points.
• 20:43
  These should be
• 20:45
  easy.
• 20:47
  And the fact that they aren't is a problem.
• 20:49
  But if enough people get,
• 20:51
  in the last month of this campaign,
• 20:52
  when the news and all the commercials are running.
• 20:55
  Wake up and say,
• 20:56
  wait a minute,
• 20:57
  I gotta do something here.
• 20:58
  I can't look at this and say,
• 20:59
  I'm gonna stay home.
• 21:00
  I'm annoyed with these people.
• 21:01
  I've gotta change something.
• 21:03
  That,
• 21:03
  that is not,
• 21:04
  we're not talking about a 20 point swing that is necessary.
• 21:07
  We're talking about 4 or 5%
• 21:09
  of Republican voters saying,
• 21:12
  you know what?
• 21:13
  I'm thinking about voting,
• 21:14
  but now I'm going to.
• 21:15
  And that changes a lot of these seats.
• 21:17
  I don't know,
• 21:18
  and if these polls are right,
• 21:19
  if it changes,
• 21:20
  let's say,
• 21:20
  Texas.
• 21:22
  Um,
• 21:22
  and maybe,
• 21:23
  uh,
• 21:23
  Alaska,
• 21:25
  but certainly Iowa is a win there.
• 21:27
  Kansas is,
• 21:28
  is a win in that circumstance.
• 21:30
  Ohio.
• 21:31
  Might very well be a win in that circumstance.
• 21:34
  Maine
• 21:34
  might very well be a win in that circumstance.
• 21:37
  Michigan
• 21:37
  might very well be a win in that circumstance.
• 21:40
  This turns from a situation where it's catastrophic for Republicans
• 21:43
  to them holding the Senate.
• 21:45
  So that ray of sunshine does
• 21:47
  exist.
• 21:48
  Um,
• 21:49
  looking at this is just a further breakdown from the CBS poll.
• 21:53
  Um,
• 21:54
  if you think
• 21:55
  Trump,
• 21:55
  like,
• 21:55
  uh,
• 21:56
  they asked Republicans,
• 21:56
  they said,
• 21:57
  hey,
• 21:57
  do you think Trump's,
• 21:58
  uh,
• 21:58
  second term is better or worse than the first one?
• 22:01
  OK?
• 22:01
  If you said it's better than the first one,
• 22:03
  you are definitely gonna vote 86%,
• 22:06
  and you probably vote is,
• 22:08
  uh,
• 22:08
  uh,
• 22:08
  10%.
• 22:09
  So 96% of people fall into that category.
• 22:12
  Only 3% say they're less likely to vote.
• 22:14
  If you think that,
• 22:15
  uh,
• 22:16
  Trump's second term is worse than the first.
• 22:19
  You have only 67% will definitely vote and 16%
• 22:23
  um
• 22:23
  will probably vote.
• 22:25
  That is only 83%.
• 22:26
  So 83% compared to 96%.
• 22:28
  The people who like Trump and are continuing on the Trump bandwagon are like,
• 22:32
  I'm there as they've always been.
• 22:34
  It's the people that are like,
• 22:35
  gosh,
• 22:36
  you know,
• 22:36
  I might have voted for Donald Trump two years ago,
• 22:38
  but this isn't working out very well.
• 22:40
  Those people,
• 22:41
  the question is,
• 22:42
  do those people look at the polls,
• 22:43
  walk in there and say,
• 22:44
  you know what?
• 22:45
  I don't like Donald Trump.
• 22:47
  I don't like what he's done.
• 22:48
  Things aren't going well.
• 22:49
  I,
• 22:50
  I would normally vote for the Republican,
• 22:52
  but I'm pulling the lever for James Tallarico this time.
• 22:55
  Or do they go the opposite way and say,
• 22:57
  gosh,
• 22:57
  like,
• 22:58
  I,
• 22:58
  I think honestly,
• 22:59
  we,
• 22:59
  we need to push back on what's going on right now.
• 23:01
  I'm not happy about it,
• 23:02
  but
• 23:03
  James Tallarico is not the way to do it.
• 23:05
  You wanna,
• 23:06
  like,
• 23:07
  am I really gonna punish Ken Paxton,
• 23:09
  uh,
• 23:09
  for,
• 23:09
  uh,
• 23:10
  for whatever he's done in his life,
• 23:12
  you know,
• 23:13
  I'm gonna spite punish him by ruining my state.
• 23:17
  When it comes down to being in the polls,
• 23:20
  there's a lot of me that thinks that skeptical that there's
• 23:23
  gonna be a giant group of people who do that.
• 23:26
  Now,
• 23:27
  some,
• 23:27
  the question is,
• 23:28
  will they show up?
• 23:29
  That's really the question.
• 23:30
  Um,
• 23:31
  and by the way,
• 23:31
  looking at the economy,
• 23:32
  which of course is the most important issue on a lot of these polls,
• 23:35
  people are are
• 23:37
  blaming Donald Trump more than Joe Biden or really anything else.
• 23:40
  56% said
• 23:41
  Trump's policies are to blame,
• 23:43
  20% said it was Biden's policies,
• 23:44
  19% said both equally,
• 23:47
  um.
• 23:48
  I'll give you one more thing here,
• 23:49
  um.
• 23:51
  This is Hispanic voters.
• 23:52
  This is a real problem in Texas,
• 23:54
  a big problem,
• 23:54
  and the reason why these polls look like they do in Texas.
• 23:57
  In 2024,
• 23:58
  how did they vote for president?
• 23:59
  51-46 for Democrats.
• 24:01
  So 5 point margin.
• 24:02
  That number now,
• 24:03
  60 to 39 in the congressional vote.
• 24:06
  So a 21%,
• 24:06
  it went from 5
• 24:07
  to 21.
• 24:08
  It's a big part of the reason of what we're looking at.
• 24:10
  There's so much in these polls,
• 24:11
  but just to quickly outline a couple of things that I noticed looking at this.
• 24:17
  1,
• 24:17
  the Hispanic vote's a real problem
• 24:18
  for Republicans.
• 24:20
  Um,
• 24:21
  2,
• 24:21
  the gas prices,
• 24:22
  the cost of living,
• 24:23
  massive problem for Republicans.
• 24:25
  Um,
• 24:26
  3.
• 24:28
  The
• 24:29
  The,
• 24:30
  the wave,
• 24:30
  if it is a wave.
• 24:33
  Is
• 24:34
  Uh,
• 24:36
  not evenly balanced right now.
• 24:37
  And this is one of the most interesting parts about this election
• 24:40
  to try to figure it out from a prediction market standpoint.
• 24:43
  You know,
• 24:44
  you think,
• 24:44
  OK,
• 24:44
  it's a Democratic year,
• 24:46
  you can go in there and find some of these Democrats that are up by 5 or 6 points,
• 24:49
  they'll probably win by 10 or 12.
• 24:52
  Um,
• 24:53
  It's not always easy to find that right now.
• 24:55
  Um,
• 24:55
  we've seen this in,
• 24:56
  I mean,
• 24:57
  probably the biggest example for me personally when
• 24:58
  it comes to prediction market positions is Oregon,
• 25:01
  the governor's race.
• 25:01
  There's a debate there this weekend.
• 25:03
  Um,
• 25:03
  that's when I'm gonna,
• 25:04
  or not this weekend,
• 25:05
  I think it's
• 25:06
  Wednesday.
• 25:06
  I don't remember.
• 25:07
  I think it's Wednesday.
• 25:08
  I'm gonna watch that.
• 25:09
  It's Tina Kottek and Christine Drazen.
• 25:11
  The polling there is really close.
• 25:13
  There are polls that show
• 25:15
  the Republican Drazen ahead
• 25:17
  in Oregon.
• 25:18
  Now,
• 25:19
  Oregon,
• 25:19
  that's one of those positions that I have on the Democrat,
• 25:21
  thinking the Democrat would be able to pull through in that race.
• 25:23
  We've seen the Republicans challenged there so many times.
• 25:25
  There's been close elections,
• 25:26
  but the Democrats always seem to pull through.
• 25:28
  I have a position on that race.
• 25:29
  Um,
• 25:30
  she has not pulled away,
• 25:31
  and,
• 25:32
  um,
• 25:32
  you know,
• 25:33
  why?
• 25:34
  What we've seen is in races like,
• 25:36
  um,
• 25:37
  that are more white.
• 25:39
  That are,
• 25:40
  uh,
• 25:40
  older,
• 25:41
  that have been shielded from some of these sort of like,
• 25:44
  you know,
• 25:44
  major issues like,
• 25:46
  um,
• 25:46
  for example,
• 25:48
  uh,
• 25:48
  gas prices,
• 25:49
  tariffs,
• 25:50
  um,
• 25:50
  uh,
• 25:51
  things of that nature.
• 25:53
  Um.
• 25:54
  Those states are not moving as much toward the Democrats as one might think.
• 25:58
  The same thing's happening in Minnesota,
• 26:00
  where Michelle Tafoya is really competitive in a very difficult
• 26:03
  environment.
• 26:04
  Maine is another example.
• 26:05
  I mean,
• 26:05
  Susan Collins has had a great electoral history over the past few cycles,
• 26:09
  but why is she doing well in the most Democrat of these swim swing states?
• 26:13
  Why is she performing well there?
• 26:15
  Um,
• 26:16
  you know,
• 26:16
  it seems to be a formula
• 26:17
  to that type of state.
• 26:19
  I went through something this weekend,
• 26:20
  we'll go through it this week of kind of just like looking at which states
• 26:23
  qualify for the best,
• 26:26
  where Republicans should be most worried and where they should be most optimistic.
• 26:29
  Maybe we'll bring that to you this week.
• 26:30
  I think it'll be interesting for you to see some of those numbers because
• 26:33
  it'll help you understand the prediction markets and
• 26:35
  where you can take a little bit more risk
• 26:36
  and where you need to be a little bit more careful.
• 26:39
  So we'll get into that as well.
• 26:40
  We have a candidate of the day
• 26:42
  coming up.
• 26:42
  We're trying to find those lines as to what's safe and what isn't
• 26:45
  in an environment that's switching on the daily.
• 26:47
  I mean,
• 26:48
  it is a really,
• 26:48
  this is one of the more difficult elections that I can remember
• 26:51
  looking at this and saying,
• 26:52
  what is happening?
• 26:53
  Because
• 26:54
  sometimes you see Democratic states where you
• 26:55
  think they'd be really performing well,
• 26:57
  underperforming,
• 26:58
  you're seeing the opposite on the Republican side.
• 27:00
  It is a weird election.
• 27:01
  Not panicking.
• 27:02
  Panic Day is October 19th.
• 27:03
  We'll panic then.
• 27:05
  For now?
• 27:05
  What is,
• 27:06
  how long is October 19th from now?
• 27:07
  Two weeks?
• 27:09
  Two weeks.
• 27:09
  Today's October 5th,
• 27:10
  so two weeks until panic day.
• 27:12
  Oh my gosh.
• 27:13
  Um,
• 27:14
  we'll continue to modify,
• 27:15
  help you kind of work through,
• 27:17
  uh,
• 27:17
  those risks and rewards,
• 27:18
  uh,
• 27:19
  trying to maximize those,
• 27:20
  of course.
• 27:21
  Uh,
• 27:21
  and we will have a candidate of the day coming up,
• 27:23
  and I wanna do something,
• 27:24
  uh,
• 27:24
  on an interesting ad,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:26
  an approach
• 27:27
  happening right now
• 27:28
  in the big Texas race,
• 27:30
  Paxton versus Tallarico.
• 27:32
  We'll get into that
• 27:33
  next.
• 27:50
  So how's it going in your home state,
• 27:52
  Stu?
• 27:52
  Uh,
• 27:53
  lots of interesting races here.
• 27:54
  In fact,
• 27:54
  even in that,
• 27:55
  uh,
• 27:55
  that New York Times poll that had Tallarico up over Paxton by 6 points,
• 28:00
  Abbott was behind Gina
• 28:02
  Hinojosa,
• 28:03
  uh,
• 28:04
  by,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:05
  4 points.
• 28:06
  Now,
• 28:07
  gosh,
• 28:07
  that one I find really hard to believe,
• 28:09
  frankly.
• 28:10
  I mean,
• 28:10
  she just seems like a dud,
• 28:12
  frankly,
• 28:12
  but,
• 28:13
  you know,
• 28:13
  whatever.
• 28:14
  Um,
• 28:14
  we will see.
• 28:15
  If people do get sick of incumbents after multiple terms,
• 28:17
  this would be the 4th term for Abbott.
• 28:19
  I think that's part of it.
• 28:20
  Uh,
• 28:21
  but there are a lot
• 28:22
  of ads being run right now.
• 28:25
  You,
• 28:25
  it's,
• 28:26
  it's weird because I,
• 28:27
  you know,
• 28:27
  I've lived in Texas.
• 28:28
  I did live in Pennsylvania for a time,
• 28:30
  which was a,
• 28:30
  a very much a swing state while I was there,
• 28:32
  but other than that,
• 28:32
  I've lived mostly,
• 28:34
  uh,
• 28:34
  in
• 28:35
  states that weren't so swinging.
• 28:37
  Florida for a time as well,
• 28:38
  but Connecticut and Texas,
• 28:40
  like,
• 28:40
  you know,
• 28:40
  just not really.
• 28:41
  Uh,
• 28:42
  you don't see tons and tons of political ads like you do in the swing states.
• 28:45
  Well,
• 28:46
  Texas is the swing state this year.
• 28:47
  They're spending
• 28:48
  a fortune on these ads.
• 28:51
  Every ad,
• 28:52
  when you go to,
• 28:53
  I don't know,
• 28:53
  poor like Kellogg's can't tell us what the new cereal is anymore,
• 28:57
  cause there's no space.
• 28:58
  Every ad is a political ad for one side
• 29:01
  or the other,
• 29:02
  including,
• 29:03
  um,
• 29:03
  and this is something I complained about early.
• 29:06
  I,
• 29:06
  I said,
• 29:07
  hey,
• 29:09
  they better wake up to this Texas race because if they don't spend money in Texas,
• 29:12
  they're going to lose.
• 29:14
  They are spending money in Texas.
• 29:16
  I can't complain about that anymore.
• 29:17
  Now,
• 29:17
  you can argue that they're not doing a good job,
• 29:19
  they're not spending it the right way,
• 29:20
  whatever,
• 29:21
  whatever you want,
• 29:22
  but
• 29:22
  this,
• 29:23
  if this,
• 29:23
  this loss is gonna be purely on Paxton if he loses it,
• 29:26
  uh,
• 29:26
  frankly,
• 29:27
  because you shouldn't lose Texas.
• 29:28
  You shouldn't lose it to this guy,
• 29:30
  of all people,
• 29:31
  you shouldn't lose it to James Tallarico.
• 29:34
  I,
• 29:34
  I,
• 29:34
  I honestly like,
• 29:35
  I,
• 29:36
  I'm not a Beto fan by any means.
• 29:38
  I think he was terrible as well,
• 29:39
  but like,
• 29:40
  he's better than Tallarico.
• 29:41
  I can't imagine what these polls would look like if Beto ran.
• 29:43
  I think it would be
• 29:44
  considerably worse
• 29:46
  for Paxton.
• 29:47
  Luckily,
• 29:47
  he has an opponent like Tallarico,
• 29:50
  who,
• 29:50
  you know,
• 29:50
  while shows up relatively popular in some of these polls,
• 29:54
  You know,
• 29:55
  I just don't,
• 29:55
  I don't know.
• 29:55
  Will that last?
• 29:57
  Uh,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  it's hard to imagine.
• 29:58
  It's hard to imagine,
• 29:59
  but it is,
• 30:00
  it's,
• 30:00
  it's happening so far,
• 30:01
  and we are 2 weeks away from panic day.
• 30:03
  So maybe this will hold.
• 30:05
  In TV ad,
• 30:06
  Angela Paxson urges voters to back the
• 30:08
  Republican ticket that includes her estranged husband.
• 30:10
  This is,
• 30:11
  I just wanted to bring this ad to you because I saw it earlier.
• 30:14
  And it really is a sign as to where this race is.
• 30:18
  The,
• 30:18
  um,
• 30:19
  the big knock on Paxson really isn't policy related at all.
• 30:23
  There's some stuff with corruption where they go to that,
• 30:25
  but I don't think that's connected with the people of Texas.
• 30:28
  They've already elected him
• 30:29
  statewide after all that stuff happened.
• 30:32
  Like,
• 30:32
  I don't think they care.
• 30:33
  The thing that's connecting with them is,
• 30:35
  you know,
• 30:35
  look,
• 30:36
  people of,
• 30:36
  of Texas,
• 30:37
  generally good people,
• 30:38
  they don't like the way that the,
• 30:40
  the,
• 30:40
  the marriage ended.
• 30:42
  He,
• 30:42
  he was married
• 30:43
  to Angela Paxton.
• 30:44
  And Angela Paxton,
• 30:46
  uh,
• 30:46
  wrote in the divorce decree or whatever it was,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:49
  the,
• 30:49
  the the court paperwork that
• 30:51
  she was divorcing him
• 30:53
  on biblical grounds,
• 30:54
  which everyone takes,
• 30:55
  I think correctly so,
• 30:56
  to see that he may have had some extracurricular activities going on,
• 31:00
  uh,
• 31:00
  apparently that she,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:01
  found out about.
• 31:02
  So that's one of the big reasons why I think the people of Texas just don't like,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:06
  Ken Paxton,
• 31:06
  and that's why they're not running to his side.
• 31:09
  They're not excited about his candidacy.
• 31:11
  Paxson is running ad after ad after ad with his daughters and his family,
• 31:15
  where he's barely even featured.
• 31:17
  They're trying to solve this problem any way they can.
• 31:19
  They came up with a new approach.
• 31:21
  This is a new ad that I just saw at least the other day.
• 31:24
  This is,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:25
  Texas State Senator,
• 31:27
  uh,
• 31:27
  Angela Paxton.
• 31:28
  She is the former,
• 31:30
  uh,
• 31:30
  the,
• 31:30
  the ex-wife that broke up with Ken Paxton over these allegations.
• 31:33
  Here's what she has to say.
• 31:35
  I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton.
• 31:38
  People have asked my thoughts about this election,
• 31:40
  and turns out I have some.
• 31:42
  Let's talk about the elephant in the room.
• 31:44
  In a general election,
• 31:45
  it's not as much about the individual players on the team.
• 31:48
  It's about getting the whole team
• 31:50
  across the finish line.
• 31:51
  Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team.
• 31:57
  That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd.
• 32:00
  Let's hold the line
• 32:02
  together.
• 32:03
  Texas PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising.
• 32:05
  Now,
• 32:05
  it's an interesting approach because,
• 32:08
  you know,
• 32:08
  you have the ex-wife who's the,
• 32:09
  the,
• 32:10
  the jilted wife,
• 32:11
  right,
• 32:12
  um,
• 32:12
  in this scenario,
• 32:14
  saying,
• 32:14
  look,
• 32:16
  I,
• 32:17
  you know,
• 32:17
  my,
• 32:18
  Ken's probably not my favorite guy,
• 32:19
  but I'm gonna vote for him anyway
• 32:20
  because I care about Texas and I care about these policies.
• 32:24
  In that way,
• 32:24
  it's effective,
• 32:25
  um,
• 32:26
  and I think
• 32:27
  it does not hurt having her out there,
• 32:29
  um,
• 32:30
  talking like that.
• 32:31
  Now,
• 32:32
  she's
• 32:33
  bringing this right back to what we kind of all talk about.
• 32:35
  It's like,
• 32:36
  well,
• 32:36
  this shouldn't be team versus team.
• 32:37
  It shouldn't be about the policies and the principles.
• 32:39
  She's like,
• 32:39
  no,
• 32:40
  it's team versus team.
• 32:41
  In this situation,
• 32:42
  it's team versus team,
• 32:43
  and a lot of times,
• 32:43
  like,
• 32:44
  there are a lot of senators that are Republicans,
• 32:46
  I don't appreciate all that much,
• 32:48
  to be honest with you.
• 32:49
  They're not my favorites.
• 32:50
  I don't love their policies.
• 32:51
  I don't love the way they handle themselves in Washington.
• 32:53
  But generally speaking,
• 32:54
  when it comes down to election day,
• 32:55
  I'm like,
• 32:55
  uh,
• 32:56
  I hope Susan Collins wins because if she doesn't,
• 32:59
  uh,
• 32:59
  you know,
• 33:00
  Republicans might lose control.
• 33:01
  We're talking about the Supreme Court and all these big things.
• 33:03
  Uh,
• 33:03
  it's a personal preference thing.
• 33:04
  It's not to do with prediction markets.
• 33:06
  When you look,
• 33:06
  think about this as prediction markets,
• 33:07
  I look at it in a different way,
• 33:09
  which is,
• 33:10
  They see this as a massive problem.
• 33:12
  The fact that they had to go
• 33:14
  to this guy's ex-wife
• 33:16
  and say,
• 33:17
  hey,
• 33:17
  please cut an ad saying,
• 33:20
  without saying it,
• 33:21
  that you'll vote for the guy who cheated on you
• 33:24
  is a rough spot to be in.
• 33:25
  If you think,
• 33:26
  like when I say that,
• 33:27
  I say this to people all the time,
• 33:28
  like the polls are not good for,
• 33:30
  uh,
• 33:30
  Republicans in Texas.
• 33:31
  Oh,
• 33:31
  I don't believe the polls.
• 33:33
  Do you believe the money?
• 33:35
  Do you believe what Republicans are seeing behind the scenes?
• 33:38
  The fact that they are spending millions of dollars running an ad
• 33:41
  with Ken Paxton's ex-wife
• 33:43
  saying she wants you to vote for the team?
• 33:46
  It's not about the individuals.
• 33:48
  It's about the team.
• 33:49
  That's not normal messaging.
• 33:51
  They are terrified of this race,
• 33:53
  uh,
• 33:53
  and that is real.
• 33:55
  That is a real thing.
• 33:57
  And it's something that if you're in the prediction market,
• 33:59
  I,
• 33:59
  I tell you,
• 33:59
  I,
• 33:59
  I think people say all the time to me,
• 34:01
  like,
• 34:01
  what about this Paxson race?
• 34:02
  I'm in this Paxton race.
• 34:03
  What do I do?
• 34:03
  What do I do?
• 34:04
  What do I do?
• 34:05
  I'd be nervous about it.
• 34:06
  I mean,
• 34:06
  I don't think there's anything other than,
• 34:07
  like,
• 34:08
  I'm not sold any.
• 34:09
  I had some Paxson shares from earlier that are down.
• 34:11
  I have not sold them yet.
• 34:13
  Um,
• 34:13
  if I'm convinced he's going to lose,
• 34:15
  I might start selling them and trying to maintain,
• 34:17
  look,
• 34:18
  uh,
• 34:19
  18th Amendment,
• 34:19
  boys,
• 34:20
  18th Amendment of the predictable Constitution is as follows.
• 34:25
  Um,
• 34:25
  don't fall in love with your own traits,
• 34:26
  that's an important one.
• 34:27
  Let me also bring up the 17th Amendment.
• 34:29
  17th Amendment of the Constitution,
• 34:31
  which is
• 34:32
  a smaller loss
• 34:33
  is a win.
• 34:34
  If you bought Ken Paxton at 75 and you feel like he's now worth 40.
• 34:39
  It's OK to shave some of that,
• 34:40
  maybe dump it.
• 34:41
  I mean,
• 34:41
  maybe dump it,
• 34:42
  but I mean,
• 34:43
  shaving your size in that position might be the right way
• 34:45
  to handle that.
• 34:46
  Um,
• 34:47
  I wanna go to,
• 34:47
  I'm gonna look for some
• 34:48
  safe areas.
• 34:50
  Where do I think that safe line is
• 34:52
  in the case of a real Democratic wave,
• 34:54
  if that's what happens here,
• 34:55
  is there money to still be made on Republican candidates?
• 34:58
  Cause that might be where the value is if you can find the line that's safe.
• 35:01
  We'll look at that
• 35:02
  next.
• 35:24
  Yes,
• 35:24
  we do a segment called Candidate Countdown.
• 35:26
  We feature one candidate every single day that we
• 35:28
  think is a good position for you to potentially consider
• 35:30
  in prediction markets,
• 35:32
  and,
• 35:33
  uh,
• 35:33
  we do that
• 35:34
  every day,
• 35:35
  uh,
• 35:35
  and some of them have been cursed as soon as we did it.
• 35:38
  They've had their worst poll of the campaign.
• 35:40
  They had a scandal.
• 35:41
  Breakout.
• 35:42
  It's happened a few times.
• 35:43
  I will say there's been some,
• 35:44
  uh,
• 35:44
  ones that have gone the right way as well.
• 35:46
  Probably the majority of them,
• 35:47
  but there is a curse there,
• 35:48
  so I'm nervous about it.
• 35:49
  We're gonna be very specific here
• 35:51
  as we look at this next race.
• 35:52
  The candidate countdown with 29 days remaining until the midterms.
• 35:56
  Candidate of the day
• 35:57
  is
• 35:59
  Jamie Davis in Louisiana,
• 36:02
  more specifically the
• 36:04
  no position on Jamie.
• 36:07
  Jamie,
• 36:08
  I wonder if these guys like,
• 36:09
  uh,
• 36:09
  hey,
• 36:10
  thanks so much for featuring me on your show with the word no
• 36:13
  across my face.
• 36:14
  Um,
• 36:15
  Jamie Davis is running for Senate in Louisiana.
• 36:18
  He's the Democrat there,
• 36:20
  and he is the beneficiary of many,
• 36:22
  many a puff piece about how wonderful he is,
• 36:24
  like this one,
• 36:25
  how Jamie Davis went from farmer to US Senate candidate.
• 36:29
  You have to go out and see people,
• 36:31
  said Jamie.
• 36:32
  This guy just,
• 36:32
  uh,
• 36:33
  every time I see this picture,
• 36:34
  I think of the show Detroiters and the guy that's in Detroit.
• 36:39
  If you've ever seen the show Detroiters,
• 36:40
  you know what I'm talking about.
• 36:41
  And that is about it.
• 36:43
  OK.
• 36:43
  Uh,
• 36:44
  you're welcome to the 4 people who understood that reference.
• 36:46
  OK.
• 36:47
  Uh,
• 36:47
  so then you have,
• 36:48
  uh,
• 36:48
  the Davis Center,
• 36:49
  uh,
• 36:49
  the data center with Davis.
• 36:52
  Uh,
• 36:52
  by the way,
• 36:53
  this is my hack to all of the mention markets
• 36:55
  of every single,
• 36:56
  um,
• 36:57
  uh,
• 36:58
  debate
• 36:58
  in the public
• 36:59
  is
• 37:00
  no one in like the national media ever talks really about
• 37:03
  data centers or AI or any of that stuff because,
• 37:06
  you know,
• 37:06
  I don't know,
• 37:07
  it's not the most fun,
• 37:08
  sexy issue to talk about.
• 37:09
  But in these local elections,
• 37:11
  every local journalist wants to ask about data centers.
• 37:14
  It's all they wanna talk about.
• 37:15
  So every every freaking election,
• 37:17
  I don't care what it costs.
• 37:18
  I'm,
• 37:18
  I'm buying me a couple of shares of data centers.
• 37:21
  OK?
• 37:22
  That's just my personal stew hack
• 37:24
  for all debates.
• 37:26
  Uh,
• 37:26
  anyway,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:27
  he's called for a,
• 37:28
  uh,
• 37:28
  data,
• 37:28
  data center moratorium,
• 37:30
  which is pretty typical of Democratic candidates and,
• 37:32
  in particularly in local races and increasingly some Republican ones as well.
• 37:36
  Now,
• 37:36
  I will say the polling here is super limited.
• 37:39
  We don't know what's going on,
• 37:40
  frankly in this race as far as polling goes.
• 37:42
  There have been two public polls that have been released.
• 37:45
  They both show Julia.
• 37:46
  Lo,
• 37:46
  the opponent,
• 37:47
  by the way,
• 37:47
  is the one that I would say the yes position on Letlow,
• 37:50
  um,
• 37:50
  is,
• 37:51
  uh,
• 37:51
  she's up by 4 points in both of these polls.
• 37:53
  You'll notice both of these polls have been released
• 37:56
  by Jamie Davis,
• 37:57
  who is the guy who paid for these,
• 37:59
  uh,
• 37:59
  particular polls.
• 38:00
  Now,
• 38:00
  one thing that's interesting about that is.
• 38:02
  Typically what you do is you wanna release the
• 38:04
  polls that are absolutely the best case scenario.
• 38:06
  Maybe these polls are real,
• 38:07
  who knows?
• 38:08
  They,
• 38:08
  you know,
• 38:08
  there's some,
• 38:09
  uh,
• 38:10
  legitimate poll,
• 38:11
  polling contacts there,
• 38:12
  though Democratic leaning,
• 38:13
  um,
• 38:14
  but,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:15
  you know,
• 38:16
  if your best evidence is that you're up by 4.
• 38:18
  Uh,
• 38:19
  uh,
• 38:19
  or,
• 38:19
  or excuse me,
• 38:19
  down by 4.
• 38:20
  You're not even,
• 38:20
  you can't even find a poll where you're winning.
• 38:22
  The chances are you're probably losing and probably losing by more
• 38:24
  than that in most of the polls that you're looking at.
• 38:26
  Couple of things about this state,
• 38:28
  um,
• 38:29
  it's a little bit of a weird state.
• 38:30
  Letlow,
• 38:30
  of course,
• 38:31
  won,
• 38:31
  um,
• 38:32
  is a,
• 38:32
  is a
• 38:33
  known figure in the state.
• 38:34
  Trump won in 2024,
• 38:36
  60 to 238.
• 38:38
  Uh,
• 38:38
  John Kennedy in 2022,
• 38:40
  the other senator,
• 38:41
  won with 62% of the vote.
• 38:43
  Letlow has won in her House elections,
• 38:45
  handily,
• 38:46
  winning 60%,
• 38:47
  65%,
• 38:48
  67%,
• 38:49
  63%
• 38:50
  in her four races.
• 38:51
  She won the
• 38:52
  runoff relatively,
• 38:53
  uh,
• 38:53
  convincingly by 14 points.
• 38:56
  Uh,
• 38:56
  the other thing that is weird about their is their,
• 38:57
  um,
• 38:58
  voter registration.
• 38:58
  You think Republican state,
• 39:00
  right,
• 39:00
  red state,
• 39:00
  they have a huge margin.
• 39:02
  Actually,
• 39:02
  not really.
• 39:03
  The Democrats have led in voter registration forever
• 39:06
  until very recently.
• 39:07
  Now,
• 39:07
  it's interesting,
• 39:08
  uh,
• 39:09
  back in 2021,
• 39:10
  Democrats had a 225,000 voter registration advantage,
• 39:14
  even though Republicans win the state almost all the time.
• 39:17
  That had switched from 225,000 toward Democrats to 55,000 toward Democrats in 2025
• 39:23
  and actually
• 39:24
  is now increased for the first time
• 39:26
  for a Republican edge.
• 39:27
  Republicans now lead in voter registration for the first time in a long time
• 39:31
  in Mississippi.
• 39:32
  That doesn't really connect with the way.
• 39:33
  They vote because they always vote Republican anyway,
• 39:35
  but the point is that the,
• 39:36
  it's more about the momentum there.
• 39:37
  Where's the movement going?
• 39:38
  The movement's going toward Republicans,
• 39:40
  not away
• 39:41
  in this particular state.
• 39:42
  She's got a big money advantage
• 39:44
  as well.
• 39:45
  As far as the points against it,
• 39:46
  um,
• 39:46
  you know,
• 39:47
  she's not like massively popular.
• 39:48
  She's well known in the state.
• 39:50
  The best point for Jamie Davis is nobody really
• 39:52
  knows anything about him or knows who he is.
• 39:54
  So maybe just generalized frustration could lead to somehow this race being close,
• 39:59
  but I expect
• 40:00
  Ludlow to win this race.
• 40:01
  This is what the Calci market looks like,
• 40:03
  and there's not a massive,
• 40:04
  again,
• 40:04
  I'm looking for where's this,
• 40:05
  wow,
• 40:05
  it's up to 9,
• 40:06
  jeez.
• 40:07
  Every time I do this,
• 40:07
  it hops like 5 points by the time I get to it.
• 40:10
  Uh,
• 40:11
  you know,
• 40:11
  we're buying it around and then like the,
• 40:12
  if you go back to that,
• 40:13
  where's that little like gap there at the beginning of October.
• 40:16
  Um,
• 40:17
  Adam,
• 40:17
  like,
• 40:17
  uh,
• 40:18
  90,
• 40:18
  yeah,
• 40:19
  about 90,
• 40:19
  I was gonna say 90%.
• 40:20
  So I'm not 90.4%.
• 40:21
  It was at,
• 40:22
  not that recently,
• 40:23
  uh,
• 40:23
  not that long ago.
• 40:23
  It is rising.
• 40:25
  You know,
• 40:25
  and 5% isn't a massive take here.
• 40:27
  I get that.
• 40:28
  But I'm looking for what's on the safe line.
• 40:30
  If you're looking for safe stuff that's on the safer side of the line,
• 40:33
  there's a lot of 5% type gains you can get in a month.
• 40:35
  Again,
• 40:35
  you're getting 3% a year
• 40:36
  on your bank accounts.
• 40:37
  So 5% in a month,
• 40:39
  not bad,
• 40:40
  uh,
• 40:40
  if that's where you want to look.
• 40:41
  OK,
• 40:41
  we're gonna take a break,
• 40:42
  come back with more here in just a second.
• 40:52
  Well,
• 40:52
  I have some good news and bad news personally.
• 40:54
  Uh,
• 40:55
  yesterday,
• 40:55
  I wanted to let you just paint the picture here.
• 40:57
  I was at a bar,
• 40:58
  uh,
• 40:59
  and it was an Eagles bar,
• 41:01
  uh,
• 41:01
  for the end of the Eagles game,
• 41:03
  um,
• 41:03
  which I was surrounded by other Eagles fans watching the Eagles and Rams
• 41:06
  where the Eagles were leading 20 to 10 late in the third quarter.
• 41:09
  Um,
• 41:10
  they got to the two-yard line and needed to punch it in basically to put the game away.
• 41:14
  They were 97% chance favorites.
• 41:17
  The Wall Street Journal helpfully reminds me of the situation.
• 41:19
  They had a 97% chance of losing,
• 41:21
  then showed why
• 41:22
  the Rams were the Super Bowl favorites.
• 41:24
  Yeah,
• 41:24
  great for them.
• 41:25
  Um,
• 41:26
  now,
• 41:26
  I will say,
• 41:29
  Did some enterprising gentlemen
• 41:32
  perhaps,
• 41:33
  uh,
• 41:33
  buy a bunch of shares at 5 and 7 cents as all of this was happening?
• 41:37
  Yes.
• 41:38
  Yes,
• 41:38
  so good news being
• 41:40
  prediction markets helped me hedge my life,
• 41:42
  which was nice,
• 41:43
  bad news.
• 41:44
  I was not only in an Eagles bar watching this happen,
• 41:46
  so everyone was wanting to commit suicide,
• 41:48
  but on the other side of the bar,
• 41:50
  which was open,
• 41:50
  we were all Cowboys fans at the exact same time they were coming back
• 41:54
  and winning.
• 41:55
  So the Cowboys fans are winning,
• 41:56
  the Eagles fans are like,
• 41:57
  it was terrible.
• 41:59
  And I will say I should have put
• 42:00
  much more money
• 42:01
  on the 5 cent shares because no amount of money,
• 42:04
  I would have,
• 42:05
  I would have rather have lost a fortune
• 42:07
  than dealt with that situation.
• 42:08
  All that being said is I want to lead you
• 42:09
  to a market I've talked about a couple of times,
• 42:11
  which I just,
• 42:11
  I really like these markets a lot.
• 42:13
  Again,
• 42:14
  we talk about sports.
• 42:14
  Yeah,
• 42:15
  you can do about,
• 42:15
  uh,
• 42:16
  winning and losing.
• 42:16
  I love hedging my life with prediction markets.
• 42:18
  It's one of the central things that I,
• 42:20
  I use them for.
• 42:21
  Um,
• 42:21
  but
• 42:22
  there's also these markets which I really like.
• 42:24
  Um,
• 42:24
  these are the total wins markets,
• 42:26
  and I've,
• 42:26
  I've discussed them a couple of times,
• 42:27
  especially as around the Eagles.
• 42:29
  The Eagles,
• 42:29
  I've watched them,
• 42:30
  they're not winning 1314,
• 42:31
  15 games this year.
• 42:32
  They're just not that kind of team.
• 42:33
  I'm hoping they can
• 42:35
  barely get into the playoffs if they're lucky.
• 42:37
  Just show me this market here real quick,
• 42:38
  Adam,
• 42:38
  if you could.
• 42:40
  You see the spikes here.
• 42:41
  Uh,
• 42:42
  when they win,
• 42:42
  they get spikes.
• 42:43
  When they lose,
• 42:43
  it drops off,
• 42:44
  right?
• 42:44
  Right now,
• 42:45
  they're predicting 10 wins,
• 42:46
  which,
• 42:47
  you know,
• 42:47
  I,
• 42:48
  I,
• 42:48
  is my optimistic case for this team this year,
• 42:50
  frankly.
• 42:50
  The way they've looked the last couple of weeks,
• 42:52
  they might not win another game for the rest of the season.
• 42:54
  But if you scroll down,
• 42:56
  uh,
• 42:56
  toward the bottom here,
• 42:57
  you see,
• 42:58
  give me,
• 42:58
  give it toward the high number of wins here.
• 43:00
  Um,
• 43:01
  right now,
• 43:01
  uh,
• 43:02
  is there any more past 14?
• 43:04
  Is it 15,
• 43:04
  there's nothing on 15,
• 43:05
  right?
• 43:05
  So 15 is at,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:07
  theoretically,
• 43:08
  you could still buy shares of that one.
• 43:09
  Uh,
• 43:10
  because they've lost two games.
• 43:11
  So if they won out from now on,
• 43:12
  they'd be 15 and 2.
• 43:13
  You see at 14 plus wins,
• 43:15
  they're at,
• 43:16
  uh,
• 43:16
  a,
• 43:16
  a 3% chance
• 43:18
  for that.
• 43:18
  13 is 12%.
• 43:20
  What I really like about these markets
• 43:23
  is they
• 43:24
  expire
• 43:25
  when
• 43:26
  the record is no longer mathematically possible.
• 43:30
  So,
• 43:31
  if you take,
• 43:32
  um,
• 43:33
  uh,
• 43:33
  like no on 14 or 15 or 13 in this case,
• 43:36
  13 wins.
• 43:39
  You can get 12% and,
• 43:40
  and you might say,
• 43:41
  well,
• 43:41
  I don't want to wait till the end of the NFL season.
• 43:43
  It's months and months and months for only 12%,
• 43:44
  but that's not how it works.
• 43:46
  The 12% actually expires
• 43:48
  when they lose their fifth game,
• 43:49
  whenever that is,
• 43:50
  and that is coming,
• 43:51
  by the way,
• 43:51
  boys and girls,
• 43:52
  they're not winning 13 games.
• 43:53
  That's not happening this year.
• 43:54
  I would love it to happen.
• 43:55
  It is not occurring.
• 43:56
  So,
• 43:56
  you want to make 12% in,
• 43:58
  they,
• 43:59
  they'd have to win,
• 43:59
  what,
• 43:59
  123 more,
• 44:01
  they have to lose 3 more games.
• 44:03
  I don't know how long that's going to take.
• 44:04
  Maybe 4 to 5 weeks is my projection on that one.
• 44:08
  You wanna make 12% in 4 to 5 weeks,
• 44:10
  you can do that in the election,
• 44:11
  or you can go to look,
• 44:12
  look at these as well
• 44:13
  and play these as they go down.
• 44:15
  You wanna go to 12?
• 44:15
  I don't think they're winning 12 either.
• 44:16
  That's 21%.
• 44:17
  That also might take about 4 or 5 weeks
• 44:19
  at this rate.
• 44:20
  So anyway,
• 44:20
  I just interesting market to look at when you're looking at your team
• 44:23
  and you're looking at maybe,
• 44:24
  um,
• 44:24
  you know,
• 44:25
  if you're hedging your favorite team,
• 44:26
  which is a great way to use these things to get paid for that.
• 44:28
  But also,
• 44:29
  like if you see a team that you don't think has any chance at that,
• 44:32
  kind of an interesting way of like looking long-term.
• 44:34
  You're not trying to project what's gonna happen at a Day to day,
• 44:36
  there's lots of noise in there,
• 44:37
  but when you kind of get to the signal a little bit,
• 44:40
  uh,
• 44:40
  it makes it a little bit more understandable.
• 44:41
  It's predictableShow.com.
• 44:43
  Join us there,
• 44:43
  PredictableShow.com.
• 44:44
  Lots of great election tools,
• 44:46
  all sorts of things are available
• 44:48
  for you there.
• 44:49
  I think you'll enjoy it,
• 44:50
  get a great value out of the premium subscription as well.
• 44:53
  All my picks are up there.
• 44:54
  There's now over 350 picks
• 44:55
  that I have on various prediction markets which you can kind of check out
• 44:58
  and uh see if you wanna go along with.
• 45:00
  It's all the time that we have today.
• 45:02
  We will see you
• 45:03
  tomorrow.