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Transcript

The Asset Everyone’s Suddenly Talking About. · The Curve

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This podcast is about an investing opportunity that every body in the world right now is
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talking about.
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To be totally honest with you as in the people listening, not Vic, I was really surprised
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with where this conversation went because what I thought you were going to say Vic and
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the research in the sort of angle that you would have had on this particular investment.
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It really surprised me.
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Without giving away too much, we're going to talk about what's going on in the world and
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why this particular asset class is doing so well.
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The different reasons why the price has gone up so significantly in the last four months.
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We're going to talk about how you can invest in this if it's something that you want to invest
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in.
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And we're also going to give out team views on whether or not this is something that
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may Vic and I produce Emily are going to invest in after this conversation.
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And let's get into it.
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Okay, we are a live newsroom right now reporting live, we're reporting live from London.
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There's been some fury dramatic things happening behind the scenes now.
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We're not we're not trying to scare you though.
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I'm like, I'm like, this has been actual, this has happened.
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No, no, it's more just like behind the scenes from our perspective.
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So this episode we planned, God, I don't know, maybe two weeks ago and I was like, guys,
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this is urgent.
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I was like, we need to get this out ASAP because who knows what could happen and what the
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way, basically Vic is essentially like a psychiatrist, yeah, she's an investing absolute genius.
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So basically, no seriously, I'm so embarrassed to really listen to this episode.
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So basically, it's so funny because you have been at me when I guess who's winning in
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the stock market comp and I'm like, no, this sounds horrible when I woke up and saw
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their headline.
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I was like, you like shame, I mean, no, look, you've got a lot of people trying, love me for
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trying.
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Go on text.
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So two weeks ago, gold, absolutely skyrocketing.
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There was, it was having a real moment.
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And so we put this episode in the Investing Club first, because obviously the point there
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was like, okay, this is an opportunity we want people to know about it.
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We want people to know it's going on.
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This is a global trend.
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And if you have any finger on any pulse of the news, which I don't, other than the curve
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to be fair, gold was like going up and up and up and up and it was exponential.
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It was like wild.
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I had FOMO, you know, thought maybe I wanted to invest in it, long story short, Vic predicted
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the future.
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So this episode that you're about to listen to, we recorded however long it was ago.
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And it was all about whether or not gold is a good investment, explaining the asset class,
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how it works, etc.
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And let's just say, I mean, can still give it a listen, but let's just say.
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Yeah, look, where we get it, you're right.
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But the point here is, I still think it's worth listening to, because gold is one of those
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things that holds its value.
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We speak all about the intensity of this asset, how it stood the test of time, or what.
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You might be right again at some point.
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True.
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This is what happens.
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Prices go up and down and up and down and up and down.
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And you know when they go down, maybe it's, you know, opportunistic.
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Yes.
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And they've been great.
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Had I bought it at the time we recorded this podcast, and I think it's really important,
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though, even though you see the headlines of, you know, gold has, it's worth days when
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to 15.
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Is that what it says?
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Yeah.
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2015.
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Yeah.
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10 years ago.
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Oh my God.
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But what we want this episode to do is to educate you in terms of when you see those headlines,
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you know, it could still be really a good opportunity in terms of an investment.
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Right.
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Yes.
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Because if this had been a week ago, and you didn't invest it when it was at this peak,
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peak, peak, peak, not great, not great at all.
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This is a very good example of, yeah, stocks and assets go up and down.
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They go sideways.
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Run circles.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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And understanding at what point maybe you want to have something in your portfolio changes,
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right?
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Like, exactly.
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Gold, I think is still one that I want to invest in, but just take a long term view.
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Yeah.
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We take a long term view.
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Anyway, enjoy this episode.
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Congratulations.
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We need to get you some kind of a medal.
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Oh, maybe a gold medal.
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Oh, yeah.
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I mean, I could probably afford it now.
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Gold jealtering.
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Anything.
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You know, going down a valley.
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It was getting cheaper by the day.
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Yeah.
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Shit.
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Okay.
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Enjoy the episode.
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And if you have any questions about gold, please comment wherever you are listening to this
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podcast.
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We're going to talk about gold in today's episode.
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I love that email is decorate of the studio.
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I would have rather like actual gold bars and gold jealery.
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Sorry.
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I'm not allowed to be gone by proper gold bars.
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Not right now.
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Maybe 12 months ago.
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Yes, but not right now.
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We wanted to start with a quick overview of what we're talking about.
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Because I think that it sounds incredibly almost fake to be saying we're talking about gold.
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The idea of investing in gold or what gold is.
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It's like what you see in the movies.
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It's what you see in gossip girl and the safe and they have all their bars.
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You kind of don't think it's a real thing.
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You don't think it's a real investing asset that would make sense to invest in.
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Yeah.
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I guess you're right.
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Because we're so used to investing digitally on a screen, you know, property.
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But back in the day, there wasn't stocks.
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There wasn't necessarily property when there was property, but like gold and other commodities
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and other kind of hard metals, coffees, sugar, like all of that cotton was what you traded
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and what you kind of made money.
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It was almost like a currency.
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Kind of before the currency's existed.
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Yeah.
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Which is weird to think about.
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Well, we're saying actually a lot of the pawn shops, you know, you're like going.
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I know.
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Porn isn't P-A-W-N.
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Will you go in and you're trying to get cash converters type 5.
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A lot of people are going in and selling their gold jewelry because it's worth so much now.
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It's just such a shame I've lost all mine.
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The only thing I've got was my earrings and it's because I never take them out.
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Every other piece of gold jewelry.
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Oof.
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Oof, this is his.
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Someone probably found it.
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It's like score.
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100%.
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You know, my lovely chain one that I got for my 30s.
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Oh, the Jasmus Sparrow one.
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Yeah, gone.
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Oof.
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Now.
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Just Pope goes.
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I don't know who had to go.
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But let's just for a second talk about the fact that gold has been around for literally billions
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of years.
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Billions and billions and billions.
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Since the Earth was created.
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Before time.
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Yeah.
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Before there was Earth or before there was people.
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It was gold.
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Yeah.
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Before dinosaurs.
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Before.
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Which is so weird to think about.
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Yeah.
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Actually, Bick and I went to a breakfast.
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It was like a sort of a breakfast event with Bloomberg.
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Which is like, would you say the most reputable financial news out there in the world, really?
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And one of the journalists, Marin, was speaking about gold and how was so popular at the moment.
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And she had someone on her podcast talk about how gold is almost like the closest you can
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get to touching your turnity.
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You know, it is the only thing or one of the only things that is in our life that kind of
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doesn't have a purpose, but it's still the test of time that has been around forever.
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Well, it came from space exploding.
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Did it?
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Yeah.
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No.
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Yeah.
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So that's why it's like when the stars died, it's through that massive explosion and they
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effectively, the soul system was creative.
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That's what gold came from.
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So it is like touching eternity.
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You're going back like nearly four billion years when you're touching.
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Yeah.
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That's actually quite amazing.
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Yeah.
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When she said that, yeah, I was like, oh my god, I want to touch gold.
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Did she say that in the talk?
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I must have missed that part.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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I mean, I understood probably 65% of what she said.
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I know.
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I kept looking at something and I said, oh gosh, this is, I don't know if this is going over my head.
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It was such a good example of how, you know, everyone should know that this is a good investment
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right now.
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But most people don't have access to something like this podcast to understand it in a way
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that makes sense.
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Because I mean, we've talked about investing for five years now and I'd like to think
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for myself as like reasonably close up.
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We were in this room with like so many other incredible people.
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Incredible people, but quite a few like older men.
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And just the, a lot of the Lingo in language, I thought so many about community if they were
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here, if they were able to get access to this conversation still wouldn't really understand
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it.
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Yeah, which is why we wanted to talk about it today because this is kind of an, I was going
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to say an opportunity of a lifetime, which is so dramatic.
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It's not.
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This is almost an opportunity of every generation, isn't it?
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And that's kind of the whole point is it's held its value so well over a really, really
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really long period of time.
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Yes.
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I do want to challenge you on that though of like because it's done so well.
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So it's hit $4,000 US dollars in ounce.
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And some people are like, what's an ounce?
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But I guess just to put it in perspective, right?
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It's the first time it's ever hit that amount.
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It's up 50% this year in terms of the gold price.
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But I want to challenge you on the beast investment right now.
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You know, like there's a few things you said in terms of like just that in human.
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Everyone needs to be in it essentially.
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And I would challenge you that just because it's gone up doesn't mean that, you know,
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we're always looking at what is it going to do in the future.
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Not what's it done already?
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Yeah.
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Not what it's done already.
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And it is very hard not to get excited when something does well.
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And you want to get on the FOMO trade and you want to buy, you know, but.
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Why don't we, why don't we start before I give my answer to whether or not I think
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it's going to continue going up or not?
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Why don't we start by saying like talking about why everyone is actually
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currently obsessed with talking about investing in gold.
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Because I would really like everyone listening to think and learn throughout this whole
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episode and then make your own decision on whether you think that this particular
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asset is going to be going up or if it's kind of had its big boom.
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The reason it is doing so well is and I just want to put this in perspective.
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Like this has doubled.
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It's prices doubled in less than two years.
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This is the biggest rise in the gold price that we've seen since the 1970s.
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It has outperformed the US stock market.
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Can you explain why that's such a big deal?
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Because if you're new to investing, you might think, yeah, gold's expensive.
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I think gold does have connotations of money.
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Yes.
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You know, just like diamonds or, but even diamonds, for example, people think of them as
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like expensive.
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Actually, the value in that asset class has gone down a lot too.
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Yeah.
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So it is, it is like if we go back to when gold was the only thing that was essentially
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traded, like we didn't have money as such as we know it today.
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Like coins were made out of gold in the first instance.
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You know, it had gold coins and you would actually trade them.
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So it's like, it does have like a store of wealth.
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Like it is known for storing wealth and holding wealth.
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And so it holds its value.
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And the reason it's so concerning right now that gold is doing so well is and we touched
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on this briefly in the curve weekly, is that gold does well when people are scared,
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when people are uncertain about the future.
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They don't really know where the stock market is going to go.
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They don't know where bonds are going to go.
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They don't know where property is going to go.
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So people invest in gold because it is a safe asset.
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It holds its wealth.
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It's really good in inflation as well.
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Because if you think about it, your money in the bank loses value every year
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because of inflation.
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Whereas if you hold gold, it holds its value.
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It doesn't decrease with inflation.
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So that's why when inflation is really high, gold tends to do well.
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But what we're seeing right now is gold doing extremely well,
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which is which is great if you invest in it.
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But also quite concerning because of the reasons why it is doing so well.
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But the reason it's done, I guess 50% this year and kind of the short term,
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is the bear-around inflation, which I just mentioned.
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But also we are seeing a lot of central banks.
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So these are the banks that kind of told the other banks what to do in every country.
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So the US Federal Reserve, we've got the Reserve Bank of New Zealand,
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all the banks that set interest rates.
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What's that British one?
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Bank of England.
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Yes, how quite important.
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The Federal Reserve.
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I know.
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Tell me what to do.
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I know.
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The Fed.
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I'm trying to make it sound like fun.
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The Fed.
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No, it sounds like a movie.
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Oh, the Fed coming for you.
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Oh my God.
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It's like the LAPD or something.
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Yeah, the FBI.
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Anyway, they have been buying gold because of fearsome inflation.
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So when you get the banks buying, they're buying big, big, big amounts as well.
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You've also got the US government shutdown that going on at the moment,
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you've got all this political chaos with China and the US.
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There is a lot of things that people are like, you know what?
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The world is quite chaotic right now.
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And I'm just going to either add a little bit of gold to my portfolio
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or some people might be like, you know what?
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I'm putting it all in gold because I'm scared, chitless about the future.
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So we've kind of got this double whammy.
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And it all started off the back of the trade war.
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Like the recent kind of rally, what we call like,
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the recent run up in the gold price started in about April this year,
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when the trade war broke out.
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And is that when you say the trade war, you mean you can't import your alcohol here.
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Fine. Well, we won't do this basically.
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Yeah.
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Typically tariff, all of that China and the US, like, yeah.
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And that's when it started really, really taking off.
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Yeah.
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And I wish I knew the stuff in April.
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You know, if I'd known that, I would have invested in it.
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But that's the thing.
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You know, the trade war is happening.
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People will be freaking out.
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What is a good investment right now?
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You've said for six months that inflation is going to be going up and up and up
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because of the US.
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Surely you would have thought, gold.
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It's not that easy.
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I wish it was.
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Because every time there's like something slightly different, right?
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Every time the market sells off, it's because of something slightly different.
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And like, even today we're seeing markets fall.
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But I'm sitting here going, well, markets recovered in April pretty quickly.
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So they're probably going to recover this time.
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Joe be buying.
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But then it could be something else that's underlying.
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It could be actually people that you know what AI boom is over.
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And we're going to see an absolute cancellation.
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You never know.
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It's easy and hindsight to be like, we should have done this.
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You should have done that.
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But the other thing that's now seeing happen is because gold has done so well.
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Those people that haven't owned it.
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So, and when I say people, yes, I mean you and me.
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But I also mean.
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I own a bit of gold.
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Thank you very much.
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I know.
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In fact, I'm going to check how it's done right now.
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But I also mean corporates, institutions, pension funds, you know,
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the people with big, big, big, big, big portfolios and a lot of money that they're managing.
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We're now starting to see the second wave, which is this FOMO trade,
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of if you haven't owned gold this year.
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You're portfolio has significantly underperformed your competitors.
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And so you are probably scrambling to now buy gold.
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Which is worse, isn't it?
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And then you get this like second wave up because you can't afford to not hold it.
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Does that make sense?
15:18
No, I don't get that.
15:19
Let's say Amazon.
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Let's say Amazon was absolutely roofing it.
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You owned Amazon.
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I didn't.
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All my clients, my investors, would be like,
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that why haven't you owned Amazon?
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Then I'll be underperforming compared to so we're going to put our money with her.
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It's just the worst time to be trying to buy it.
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But that's what leads to like the second wave, I guess.
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So is that what's happening right now?
15:43
Well, we're starting to see, yeah, we're starting to see that happen
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because when such a large asset or such a large group of stocks,
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you know, even like a sector of stocks or yeah, an asset gets to a level
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or gets to, you know, does does so well.
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People start being like, oh gosh, okay, now I'm just going to have to own it.
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I'm going to have to buy it at this level because I can't afford to own it.
16:08
Oh, that's stark.
16:09
Yeah.
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So you get this phimo trade.
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That's not clever.
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No, I'm surprised that they even given to the pressure of that.
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Because it's literally the opposite of, I know we're not meant to buy.
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I was so high.
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But if you're an active investor, that is exactly what you're trying to do.
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And it feels very weird that people would all of a sudden be buying at the top of the market.
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Yeah.
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Well, is it the top, I guess, is the question, right?
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Or does this, and that's probably why they're jumping in now.
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Is it going to go up another 50%?
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Is it going to go up another 100%?
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In other news, I just realized I've actually sold my gold in July.
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It's just so devastating.
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Looks like those earrings might have to go.
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So as an overarching statement, the main thing that you need to understand
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when it comes to gold and when and why it does really well,
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if people panic about the future of the world,
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of the economy, of politics, of wars at any kind, uncertainty creates fear.
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And when people are fearful, they invest in things that feel safe.
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And that is why gold is such a safe investment right now.
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Because people are really scared about what is happening.
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And I think that that's such a good yardstick.
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And we'll come back to this at the end of this episode.
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But for me, that is the main reason why I feel like we haven't seen the end of gold going up in terms of value.
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Because I think for the next however long Trump's in power,
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everyone is going to be terrified.
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I think the amount of wars that are happening around the world right now are...
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Everything just feels so unstable.
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I think AI as much as there is so much growth and positive trajectory
17:49
in terms of how much business is a worth,
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I still think it's creating a lot of fear.
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And I think that in general, I know we say this every year,
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even when COVID was happening and we were all like,
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no one's ever felt this scared.
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It's like, ma, I feel like the last five to seven years,
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every year, I wouldn't say gotten worse,
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but it's like short when I'm not feeling more positive about the state of the world.
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And if we also look at Bitcoin,
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Bitcoin's also done well.
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Of similar, you know, kind of off the back of a similar thing
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of people are fearing the financial system.
18:25
And that is such an interesting point.
18:28
But Bitcoin is so new compared to gold.
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More people are heading to gold.
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So when there is uncertainty,
18:37
they're both doing well,
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but Bitcoin was created so recently compared to gold.
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So there is this, like, revert back to prehistoric times.
18:47
Yeah, yeah.
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Which makes sense.
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It's so funny how far we have come
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and yet how easily we want to revert to comfortable safe.
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It kind of gives me hope and humanity a bit,
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and we're in a weird way because...
19:00
No, I understand what you mean.
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You know, even all the technological advances, you know, everything.
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The value is in what we've always had.
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It's always not.
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You run back to your mum when things get a bit scared.
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You get sick.
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We want to check and open your mum to look like,
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I'm a big confident girl and then it's like,
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I'm just going to run back to my safe home.
19:16
It's so true though.
19:17
And I feel the same, actually.
19:19
And I think your mention of Bitcoin is a really good one
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because what is happening particularly in the US
19:25
is the main source of stress, I think,
19:27
for a huge amount of the world.
19:29
There's so many things happening everywhere.
19:31
But the idea that people are kind of not trusting
19:35
the systems that are in place
19:38
has meant that something like a digital currency
19:40
is really attractive and people have invested in it.
19:43
It's exactly the same with gold.
19:44
It's a physical currency.
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So people are trying to head away from what is, like, most commonly used.
19:50
And it's also, like, Bitcoin, we've seen,
19:52
or encrypted currency, we've seen them go up and down,
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up and down, up and down.
19:56
You know, like they have been quite volatile
19:59
and they haven't withered a whole lot of really scary,
20:03
long-term tools.
20:04
So yeah, whereas gold has stood the test of time,
20:07
literally, since day dot.
20:09
And so a lot of people are going to go going,
20:11
you know what, I'm just going to just chill here
20:13
until all those chaos subsides.
20:16
And then I'll come back out and go back
20:18
into some more risky things like stocks.
20:20
I don't know if you listened to this podcast I sent you,
20:22
but I sent it to our producer Emily.
20:24
But it was almost saying money or it's kind of not going to matter
20:29
because things are going to be so dire
20:31
that maybe we'll play a little clip to give context.
20:34
It's now going to cost more and more and more
20:37
to produce these fossil fuels.
20:39
The iron years is going to be the economy that's going to go down.
20:43
Not the climate.
20:45
Not climate.
20:46
Not climate.
20:47
The economy is going to heat us first.
20:48
We're not going to be able to afford the growth imperative
20:51
that we've been living with.
20:53
That system is going to collapse.
20:55
You're going to need to know how to memorize phone numbers,
20:58
how to get places.
20:59
Yeah.
21:00
Because there are going to be outages that won't go down immediately
21:02
although Elon Musk owns 80% of the satellites up there
21:05
and if he just has a bad mood one day,
21:07
he decides to turn his lights off.
21:09
Like seriously, ATM machines.
21:11
We won't be able to get money out.
21:12
We won't be able to do this kind of thing.
21:14
We won't be able to call anyone.
21:15
We won't be able to use Google Maps to get somewhere
21:17
to start thinking about this.
21:19
If you've got kids, send them to Scouts.
21:21
Also, the billionaires who are building these bunkers
21:24
like, have they thought it through
21:26
and I interviewed somebody on my podcast about this
21:28
who's an expert in this?
21:29
No, they haven't.
21:30
Because when things are bad enough to go into a bunker,
21:34
there's going to be no money.
21:35
So how are you going to pay the bodyguards?
21:37
And like the bodyguards are probably going to go,
21:39
unless we're trying to extend their family,
21:41
which is, you know, luxury zone.
21:43
No, and you've got no money.
21:45
And, you know, so what's going on here?
21:47
And the pilots that they're expecting to fly them to the bunker
21:50
when she goes down, they're also going to go,
21:52
yeah, I don't know.
21:53
This is a skill set you don't have.
21:55
And it's my plane.
21:56
I'm going to take my family.
21:57
Yes.
21:58
So there is no safe place within the individualist model.
22:02
If I think about that particular situation,
22:05
the basically the entire podcast is talking about
22:07
the idea that it kind of like with Roman Empire,
22:10
like booming, booming, and then kind of collapsing.
22:12
That we're seeing this technological boom
22:14
and that a lot of people are projecting,
22:16
perhaps, or collapse anyway, the pointers
22:18
in that type of situation, but coin is kind of useless.
22:21
Whereas gold, if you held it and you had it,
22:24
you would probably have a huge upper hand
22:26
compared to most people.
22:27
Like, who knows what's going to happen?
22:30
And I know this is going to sound quite almost conspiracy theory.
22:33
But if there's a world in which things to turn to total shit,
22:37
what you have in your bank account and your asset portfolio
22:39
is not going to matter at all,
22:40
however, there's something tangible that you could trade.
22:42
Yes.
22:43
Could be.
22:44
So like, I don't know.
22:45
Maybe that's one of the reasons why it's being different.
22:47
But the reason people are buying gold is that it's about protecting
22:53
their money, not growing their money.
22:56
And I just want to preface this whole discussion
23:00
with if you have a long time horizon for your investments,
23:06
and you've got years and years and years to grow your wealth,
23:09
this is kind of an irrelevant, not an irrelevant conversation.
23:12
But I just think this is probably going to be a blip in the ocean.
23:15
It's so weird you say this because I have quite a different thought on it.
23:18
And I know we haven't got through all of this yet.
23:21
But I think two things.
23:23
I think, yes, of course, it's probably a good place to protect your money.
23:26
But I actually still think that this asset is going to keep going up.
23:29
I agree.
23:30
I think in the short term, you could be making quite good money from it.
23:33
Short term.
23:34
Yeah.
23:35
That's what I mean.
23:36
I'm saying, I think in the short term.
23:37
Whereas I'm a long term investor.
23:39
Hmm.
23:40
Hmm.
23:42
And I agree.
23:45
I think it could keep going up.
23:47
But I think if I'm looking at the next kind of 10, 20 years,
23:52
stocks are still going to be a very large portion of my portfolio.
23:55
Yeah.
23:56
Before we move on to some of this sort of green and red flags,
23:59
your mention of this is a great place to store money,
24:02
not to make money.
24:03
And it being sort of edge against inflation.
24:06
If you don't want the bank or inflation to chew away the money you've got,
24:11
putting it somewhere like gold can hold it.
24:13
Can you explain that a bit more?
24:15
Why is gold protected from inflation?
24:18
Hmm.
24:19
Because if we're going to see huge inflation potentially in the US based on all these tariffs,
24:24
why is gold a place that people would be wanting to put their money
24:27
to try and protect losing value of what they already have?
24:31
Yes.
24:33
So inflation essentially is, when inflation rises,
24:36
the value of your cash falls.
24:38
What you can purchase with, say, $1,000.
24:41
At the beginning of the year versus the end of the year,
24:43
if inflation is really high, is less.
24:46
You can purchase less groceries than you did a year ago
24:49
because the value of that money has decreased.
24:52
I hate the inflation explanation.
24:55
It always confuses me.
24:57
So if you went to the supermarket and you spent $1,000 on groceries,
25:01
you got to put putty.
25:03
Several bags of corn chips.
25:05
You might be able to fill up two trolleys with groceries.
25:09
Yes.
25:10
Whereas if you went a year later and say inflation was really high,
25:13
the prices of all those things has gone up within that year,
25:16
but you've still got $1,000.
25:18
So even though the actual dollar value is the same,
25:23
what you can purchase with that $1,000 has gone down.
25:26
You might only be able to purchase one and a half trolleys.
25:29
And we talk about this a lot.
25:31
It's like, you need your money to be growing,
25:33
at least at the rate of inflation.
25:35
And that's why keeping the banking account is so bad
25:38
because it's literally just think of these little critters
25:41
that are eating away at your cash.
25:43
But it still says that it's $1,000.
25:46
So then, yeah, with gold, you buy, say, an ounce of gold
25:50
for $4,000 US dollars.
25:52
That just keeps their value of that.
25:54
It holds its value.
25:55
Why does?
25:56
Because it's like an asset.
25:58
Like a stock price, for example, you know,
26:00
that doesn't get impacted by inflation.
26:02
It's impacted by the underlying earnings of the company.
26:05
Okay.
26:06
There is nothing.
26:07
Gold doesn't depend on earnings from a company.
26:09
It doesn't depend on like with bonds, you know,
26:12
there's credit risk associated in terms of if the business goes
26:15
to put, you're not going to get your money back.
26:17
Whereas gold, it doesn't depend on anything.
26:19
It's literally just supply and demand.
26:22
And so because it's not used as an average change.
26:27
Yeah.
26:28
It's a store of wealth and of value.
26:30
And therefore, it's where people hear and put,
26:33
store their money when money is losing its value.
26:36
It's losing its value.
26:37
So that's all asset outside of cash.
26:40
Are you holding it in the bank?
26:42
Also on that.
26:43
Protected from inflation.
26:44
So stocks, property, gold.
26:47
Yes, to an extent.
26:48
But with stocks, say you owned a Walmart,
26:51
you owned a retailer, your share price is going to be impacted
26:55
by inflation through an indirect way.
26:57
Because people can now afford to spend less at Walmart
27:00
because prices have gone up.
27:02
But therefore, the earnings will fall.
27:04
But therefore, the share price might fall.
27:06
So it will be impacted in an economic sense,
27:09
but not gold, but not gold.
27:11
I mean, not as much, you know, like there,
27:13
there obviously be people that might have less
27:15
to suppose when come now.
27:16
So therefore, can't purchase gold.
27:17
So therefore, the prices will go up as much.
27:18
Everything's kind of interrelated.
27:20
But over time, it has stored its wealth.
27:22
The most versus inflation of any asset.
27:25
And with money, the government can just print more money.
27:29
You can't just create more gold.
27:32
Yes, because there's a finite supply of gold.
27:35
To a point, there's always.
27:36
You can obviously mine it more.
27:38
But generally, it's a goal.
27:40
It's not like there's an abundance of gold.
27:42
There's a certain amount, which is why it drives the price up.
27:44
Because supply demand.
27:46
And it's not tied to any country or government or anything.
27:50
It's effectively its own kind of unregulated bitcoin.
27:54
But from the ages.
27:56
And so on the gold banwagon.
27:57
Can we talk about what are the other reasons?
28:00
I know that we've spoken about the reserve banks
28:02
are buying gold.
28:03
Everyone's getting about the world.
28:05
What are the reasons right now?
28:07
Is it booming?
28:08
The US dollar used to be like a very stable,
28:12
main currency that you would hold
28:14
because of the US economy was such a dominant force.
28:18
And so people would hold US dollars.
28:21
Even emerging countries, for example,
28:23
would hold US dollars.
28:24
So India, Brazil, all of that would hold US dollars
28:27
as kind of a safe currency.
28:30
And then everything that's unfolding in the US right now
28:32
is put that in a bit of jeopardy.
28:34
And so you've got central banks all around the world buying.
28:39
Even the US central bank is buying gold
28:43
because it's way more defensive
28:45
and I guess predictable than the US dollar.
28:49
So there's this move away from I guess
28:52
traditional currencies into gold.
28:55
And we've seen that in bitcoin as well.
28:57
And so there's all of this demand for gold
29:01
is what's driven up the price of gold recently
29:04
because of all this uncertainty around the US
29:07
which probably over the last 50 or so years
29:10
you had just your regular investors buying gold.
29:14
You know, oops, when the market is like,
29:16
but wobbly, let's go to gold.
29:18
Whereas now you've got these big, big, big, big, big buyers
29:21
coming in and buying it.
29:22
And that's why more recently the gold price has done
29:26
really, really well.
29:27
And also there's a lot of gold ETFs
29:31
that have now been created as well,
29:32
making it easier for people to buy gold.
29:35
So I guess there's also there probably was a time
29:38
where you needed a decent amount to invest in gold
29:40
and the ETFs have democratized that.
29:42
Oh, you had to actually go buy a bar of gold.
29:44
And now things have got so much easier
29:46
which opens up demand for gold.
29:49
You know, been able to just like plug in
29:51
and buy a fraction of gold now instead of a whole bar
29:54
and all of that has helped your demand as well.
29:57
And then there's, we're seeing so many
30:01
really, really of student investors,
30:03
billionaire investors come out being like,
30:05
it's a great diversifier away from cash and bonds.
30:08
When you've got billionaires saying stuff like that
30:10
and you've got really a student investors,
30:12
that's when you start getting this FOMO trade
30:15
and people being like, yeah.
30:16
Okay, right. So that's the piece
30:17
where a lot of people are seeing, say for example,
30:20
Warren Buffett go and do something
30:22
and they're just like, oh, well, I should do it
30:23
because they are.
30:24
Because they're knowledgeable.
30:25
They've got the experience.
30:26
Okay.
30:27
And also we just had a conversation
30:29
off my about, you know, whether or not we would buy gold.
30:34
And I think that's a really good point
30:36
that I just said.
30:37
I say so myself.
30:38
Is that gold is a really good diversifier
30:41
for cash and bonds.
30:43
So if you are holding cash and bonds
30:46
or you have a large holding of cash and bonds
30:49
in your portfolio, so you may be an older investor
30:51
or you're closer to your investing goal,
30:54
then yes, gold is probably a pretty good
30:58
substitute or replacement for that type of asset.
31:03
The stocks I really struggle
31:05
to not invest in stocks and put everything in gold,
31:08
if that makes sense.
31:09
Why is that?
31:10
Because, yeah, so we were talking about this off mic
31:12
because I have heard so much chat about gold lately
31:16
to the point where I am seriously wanting to find money
31:19
to put them to gold.
31:20
And I know that I am probably,
31:22
it's just the classic,
31:23
but it's really interesting to me
31:27
that you don't see it as an opportunity.
31:30
I do, but like if I'm looking at my portfolio,
31:33
I am wanting super spicy stuff.
31:36
I am investing for the long term.
31:38
I am wanting to invest in that stuff
31:39
that's going to be super high returning,
31:41
not the defensive protect my money type of assets
31:45
for my investing journey right now.
31:48
A lot of older investors
31:49
would have a higher percentage of their portfolio
31:52
and the fence of things like bonds, cash.
31:55
Oh, and when you say defensive,
31:57
you mean stuff that's not necessarily going to,
31:59
you know, they don't want to take this or go down
32:01
because they want to use that money so and therefore
32:04
they want it to store its value rather than grow.
32:06
Exactly.
32:07
So if I was investing on behalf of my child,
32:09
I probably wouldn't put any golden.
32:11
They've got like 60 years until their retire.
32:14
And do I really think that gold's
32:16
out gonna outperform in the next 60 years versus stock?
32:19
No.
32:20
Right.
32:21
So that's where I'm coming from.
32:23
So it totally depends on your investment horizon.
32:26
Would you put a little bit?
32:27
If I had someone cash in bonds,
32:29
I probably would, but I don't.
32:31
So I'm there for saying,
32:33
I'm taking it out of my stocks and putting it into gold.
32:36
Which you're saying you don't see them
32:38
at outperforming stocks.
32:39
So why would you bother?
32:40
It's kind of your point.
32:41
Yeah.
32:42
So interesting.
32:43
I think the whole preface of this conversation
32:45
is that it depends on your investment timeframe.
32:48
Okay.
32:49
So I think potentially what's happening here
32:51
is I have a photo.
32:52
I'm having photo,
32:53
and I'm feeling like I want to invest in it
32:55
because it's being talked about
32:57
than it being a particularly good strategy.
32:59
However, I do still genuinely think the world
33:03
is like looking pretty scary.
33:05
So if that's the case and if that continues to happen,
33:08
gold could continue to go up.
33:10
But remember every asset
33:12
and the price of the asset is a reflection
33:14
of what's happening in the future.
33:16
As in, the current share price
33:18
is the future prediction.
33:20
Yeah.
33:21
Any asset, it's all about the future outlook of the world.
33:25
Which means that because gold is already high,
33:28
everyone's already scared about the future,
33:30
so that that moment has gone.
33:31
Yeah.
33:32
So if that all kind of, I guess, happens,
33:34
then people will be like,
33:35
oh, cool, that's happened.
33:36
I'll invest somewhere else.
33:37
Yeah.
33:38
Oh, bloody hell.
33:39
I know.
33:40
You need a crystal ball.
33:41
It's super annoying.
33:42
Yeah.
33:43
I almost feel like the things that we need to be talking about
33:45
are the stuff that nobody is talking about.
33:48
Right?
33:49
But this is why it's like,
33:51
it's just such a tried and true investing strategy
33:54
is to try and not get caught up in all the stuff
33:56
that's in the news and everything.
33:58
And just if you want to start investing in gold,
34:01
go for it.
34:02
But chip away.
34:03
Do, you know, invest a little bit each month
34:05
over the next 10 years.
34:07
Don't go put it all in now.
34:10
Don't go put it all in now.
34:11
And then be like,
34:12
Vic, why did it fall?
34:13
I don't know if it's going to fall.
34:14
But, you know, it could go up another 15.
34:16
I don't know.
34:17
But I'm just saying,
34:18
if you really think that you want some gold
34:20
in your portfolio,
34:21
and you want to hold that for the long term,
34:24
and say you want it to be 10 to 20% of your portfolio,
34:27
then start shipping away
34:28
and building up to that percentage.
34:29
Like with any investment in stocks, right?
34:32
It's like you dollar cost average,
34:34
you invest in things over time.
34:37
But then why if you're saying
34:39
the future share price,
34:42
as if we look at this graph
34:43
and it's skyrocketed recently?
34:45
Yeah.
34:46
Why then do people still say
34:48
gold is always a good investment?
34:50
Because it might not fall back down to earth.
34:52
It might continue to like grow one, two, three percent.
34:55
Yeah, I don't know.
34:57
But because it's a preserver of wealth,
35:00
so if you are trying to protect your money,
35:03
not grow it,
35:04
yes, in this instant, it has grown,
35:06
which is great.
35:07
But could it fall or not?
35:08
Yeah.
35:09
It's fallen heaps throughout the last 50 years.
35:11
That's such a contradiction
35:12
if you're saying it holds its wealth,
35:14
and why is it fluctuating in price?
35:15
It doesn't hold its price.
35:17
It holds its value.
35:19
If I look at those periods when it fell,
35:21
the world was in a great place.
35:23
When the world was in a great place,
35:25
gold didn't really know shit.
35:26
Yeah.
35:27
Well, not shit, but yeah, it doesn't do as well.
35:29
Like if stocks are absolutely roofing it.
35:31
Is it weird then that stocks are roofing it
35:33
at the same time as gold?
35:35
If June really the tour inverse?
35:37
Yeah.
35:38
And that's why there's so much else going on
35:39
behind the scenes with gold right now
35:41
in terms of like the central banks buying it,
35:43
all of that.
35:44
It's kind of a bit of a normal leave.
35:46
It's always like a foe like doing well.
35:48
Because there's so many things
35:49
not just the idea of people invest based on
35:51
what's happening in the economy.
35:52
It's all the other factors that are making it go up.
35:55
Yeah.
35:56
Okay.
35:57
Because yeah, it's almost like how people say
35:59
Bitcoin kind of does independently of it goes
36:02
independently of the stock market.
36:03
It's the same with gold.
36:04
But like gold also doesn't pay you
36:06
anything to hold it, right?
36:08
It's all about the capital,
36:09
the movement in the share price.
36:11
Like it doesn't pay you interest,
36:12
it doesn't pay you dividends.
36:14
It doesn't really pay you anything.
36:15
So it's more about like that stability
36:17
than actually growth.
36:19
So if you think about your emergency fund,
36:21
like you're getting three percent on that,
36:23
yes, people that have invested in gold this year
36:25
have got 50 percent.
36:27
But next year could be...
36:28
One percent.
36:29
Yeah, it could be lower than what you get.
36:31
An interest or an dividends on your stocks
36:33
or you know, like there's...
36:35
It's still an asset that moves around
36:37
depending on supply and demand.
36:39
It's just right now there is a lot of demand for it.
36:42
What do experts or professionals say
36:44
percentage-wise gold should be in a portfolio?
36:47
I think for if you've got like 10 years plus
36:51
until you, you know, as you invest in gold
36:53
or into your investing time frame,
36:55
it should only be like...
36:56
Hardly any.
36:57
Five, 10 percent, yeah.
36:58
If that really.
36:59
Yeah.
37:00
Whereas obviously if you're older,
37:01
you want something that's like a bit more stable,
37:04
a bit more a store of wealth
37:06
that's going to protect your portfolio,
37:08
you should have a higher percentage.
37:10
Kind of like a bond in cash
37:12
in terms of like where it sits on the risk spectrum.
37:14
I'm still...
37:15
I'm still on the gold bandwagon.
37:17
Every time I hear bond, I think,
37:20
vomit, not for me.
37:21
Not for me.
37:22
I'm a long-term investor.
37:23
I want spice.
37:24
But for some reason, gold is...
37:25
I'm like, I can't seem to get it out of my head.
37:27
I don't know why.
37:28
I think for me, I do want a bit of gold in my portfolio.
37:31
I think that's what it's made me realize.
37:33
It might not be that I need to go and put a heap sun,
37:35
but this is something I have totally overlooked
37:38
and haven't put any money into.
37:40
And I think that...
37:41
I should.
37:42
And I want to.
37:43
I guess to round that out is like gold.
37:46
Yes, it's doing fantastically well right now,
37:48
but it is your safety net.
37:50
It is not your moneymaker.
37:52
And I think that's probably something to remember.
37:55
The moneymaker is in the things like stocks.
37:58
They're the things that have historically delivered,
38:02
you know, over 10% return per year.
38:04
But what if I think that gold's going to keep going up?
38:06
Because a little...
38:07
You should have 80% of your portfolio in gold.
38:09
Are you taking the perspiration?
38:10
No, but I'm like, if you genuinely do.
38:12
Like if you think...
38:13
And that's kind of the whole purpose of investing, right?
38:15
It's like, what do you think is going to do well
38:17
over the long term in the future?
38:19
If you think it's going to be gold?
38:21
Then of course, like double down.
38:22
I kind of do think it's going to be gold.
38:24
If you think it's going to be stock,
38:27
I think we're property.
38:28
I think we're property.
38:29
And gold.
38:30
Go for it.
38:31
I bet you're probably listening.
38:32
Yeah, absolutely.
38:33
Listen to the official hon.
38:35
And in the ways to do that, if you do want to,
38:38
there's lots of gold ETFs, like I mentioned.
38:40
There's now more ETFs than stocks in the stock market.
38:44
And so there's been a number of new gold ETFs
38:47
where you can buy a small slice.
38:49
So we'll talk about this in the club.
38:51
So if you want to know some good at gold ETFs,
38:53
we talk about quite a few in there, actually.
38:55
Like specific examples?
38:56
Yes.
38:57
Yeah.
38:58
Because I do think when there's a lot of ETFs,
39:00
it can be quite overwhelming to purchase one.
39:02
Yeah.
39:03
Nice to be specific.
39:04
What about actually just buying some cool jewelry?
39:07
Does it have the same impact?
39:08
Like if I was to go and buy a really beautiful,
39:11
I don't know,
39:12
bangle.
39:13
Yeah.
39:14
Bangle.
39:15
Would it be a similar investment to buying an ETF?
39:19
Yes.
39:20
It's just nice.
39:21
Harder to buy and sell it, right?
39:23
It's not just looking on the screen.
39:26
Do you know what?
39:27
I think that might be how I invest in gold.
39:28
Yeah.
39:29
I might not put it in something like an ETF.
39:31
I might buy like a bracelet.
39:32
I might lose it.
39:34
Bro.
39:35
I invested all this money in gold,
39:37
but I don't know where it is.
39:39
It's so true.
39:40
I'm sorry.
39:41
I know you're right.
39:42
I actually think that's,
39:43
that's exact.
39:44
I forgot for a second that I bought.
39:45
Or just bought a lot of anything for that.
39:46
People are in a safe.
39:47
Yes, you can buy it,
39:48
but just don't wear it.
39:49
I was trying to get the best of both worlds,
39:50
but I could wear it and also sell it.
39:52
But let's be honest,
39:53
it'll be lost, so don't do that.
39:55
So I think the main points are,
39:57
is that the reason the gold price is going up right now
40:00
is because people are nervous.
40:02
And that's,
40:04
I hope what you've got in from this podcast is that,
40:07
yes, it's great that the price of gold is going up,
40:10
but the underlying reasons are,
40:12
what makes me nervous.
40:14
And has that been changed the way you're thinking about investments?
40:16
A little bit.
40:17
Yeah.
40:18
It definitely does create some nervousness.
40:21
I mean, I've got such a long-term view
40:24
in terms of my portfolio
40:26
that, you know, I'm still investing,
40:28
but as these things keep going up and up and up,
40:32
whether it's the stock market,
40:34
the gold price, bit coin,
40:36
you know, all of that,
40:37
it does kind of feed into this really euphoric state,
40:40
which when people think nothing can go wrong
40:43
or everything's doing well,
40:45
that's when things do go wrong.
40:47
But that's why we invest, right,
40:49
is because prices move up and down,
40:51
and that's when it creates opportunity.
40:53
So I think it's healthy if we did get a fall in the gold price
40:56
or we did get a fall in stock prices
40:59
or something like that.
41:01
I think it's healthy.
41:02
Before we end,
41:03
I would really like to ask,
41:05
I'll produce the Emily,
41:07
what her thoughts are on gold.
41:09
And I also would like to hear from anyone else
41:11
who's listening to this.
41:12
Can you comment your thoughts on gold?
41:14
Do you want to invest in it?
41:16
Has learning about this made you feel firm,
41:18
like you want to buy it?
41:19
Or are you going to be sticking
41:21
towards spicy stuff like shares?
41:22
I actually would really love to know,
41:25
Percy, Emily.
41:26
So for context,
41:27
anyone that doesn't know Emily is Ginzy.
41:29
So she's got a very long time until she retires
41:33
or is going to need her money.
41:34
Because before we recorded this,
41:36
Emily had said she'd also heard people talking about gold
41:38
and being this sort of like pharma thing.
41:40
She was wondering if she should invest in it.
41:41
After having heard that talk about it,
41:44
how do you now feel about investing in gold or not?
41:47
So I was already invested in gold,
41:49
not in that much.
41:50
Only about £100.
41:52
And I did this a couple of months ago.
41:54
And then I haven't been investing for quite a long time now.
41:56
And when I heard all of this going on,
41:58
I thought I need to put way more money in.
42:00
It's going up.
42:01
I was definitely getting some pharma,
42:03
wanting to jump on the van wagon like so.
42:05
However, now I feel after listening to all of that,
42:08
I feel a bit relieved in that I'm now like,
42:11
okay, cool.
42:12
I can invest the normal amount that I would usually be doing
42:15
and not putting everything in.
42:16
And it also makes me think,
42:17
I guess I've had a bit of a mindset shift around.
42:19
I kind of thought that gold and bitcoin were similar
42:22
and they're so little of it.
42:24
But now it's interesting hearing you say that it's more
42:27
in the bonds and cash bucket.
42:30
Yes.
42:31
So I think my approach will now be,
42:33
keep on investing in it a little every month
42:36
and don't get swept up in the hype.
42:39
Don't make it like 80% of your portfolio.
42:41
Yeah.
42:42
Bet a little bit as good.
42:43
Hmm.
42:44
Very astute.
42:45
Okay, very good.
42:46
If you're listening to this place, can you comment?
42:48
Are you on the gold bandwagon?
42:50
Are you going to be increasing the amount that you invest in gold?
42:52
Or do you think, is this not something you're particularly interested in?
42:54
Would love to hear.
42:55
I think I do want to invest more in bitcoin though.
42:58
And a little bit in gold mostly stops.
43:01
But I do think I want a little bit.
43:03
And some other,
43:04
something other than actual currency.
43:07
Yeah.
43:08
Yeah.
43:09
I like TBC.
43:10
What about you?
43:11
I think I'm going to wait.
43:12
Did you mean you might invest in gold,
43:14
but just not right now?
43:15
Yeah.
43:16
I think eventually I will invest in gold.
43:18
I just don't think right now.
43:19
I think I see way more opportunities in stock.
43:23
So you're doing the whole.
43:24
But I'm not discounting like a small position,
43:27
but does scare me when something's gone up 50%.
43:30
Well, it's literally the opposite of what we would talk about.
43:32
Let's say that this was Apple.
43:34
Yeah.
43:35
And Apple had gone up and up and up.
43:36
It's not really the time to be buying it, isn't it?
43:38
Yeah.
43:39
Like when you bought Netflix,
43:40
like when I bought Tesla,
43:41
like it was when.
43:42
Before they really, really great companies had a little wobble.
43:46
Not after they've gone out and messed away.
43:48
Yeah.
43:49
Really between the lines here.
43:51
Love it.
43:52
I know you're not trying to give financial advice,
43:54
but I can see what you're putting down.
43:55
And if I'm wrong and I miss out on an incredible rally in gold,
43:58
like not really going to bother me,
44:00
because I would have hopefully invested in other things
44:04
that would have done just as well.
44:06
Thank you for doing the research.
44:07
No worries.
44:08
I'm glad we had this conversation before.
44:09
And we didn't make any financial decisions.
44:13
And I won't be buying a Cartier Gold bracelet,
44:15
even though I desperately want to.
44:16
Yeah.
44:17
I mean, I would rather invest in gold like that.
44:19
So I've always said to myself,
44:21
I want to buy myself a treat.
44:22
I just feel like I don't think I'm giving Cartier right now.
44:25
You know, like I think it would look very weird if I had that.
44:28
But even if I think about that,
44:29
if I think about the idea of having an engagement ring,
44:31
for example, like if I was to get engaged,
44:33
I cannot imagine a diamond on my hand.
44:38
No, I feel like it would be like,
44:40
a bunch of stones or something.
44:41
A bunch of stones.
44:42
No, like I mean like,
44:43
or like real costume jewelry.
44:45
I am so happy.
44:47
No, because I mean it's like,
44:48
you're colourful and exciting.
44:50
You know, there's like cool plastic.
44:51
You know, there's a brand that's like really good.
44:53
No.
44:54
I mean like a real funky.
44:56
I think it's expensive.
44:57
Okay.
44:58
A real funky.
44:59
No, I think it would be.
45:00
I would say, no, it would be like,
45:01
maybe I like yellow diamonds.
45:03
Yeah.
45:04
Yeah.
45:05
Oh, that's blue.
45:06
No, no, no, no, I think I am.
45:08
I just can't imagine.
45:10
My pointers.
45:11
I can't imagine wearing expensive jewelry,
45:12
which I probably need to like do some visualisational.
45:15
Yeah.
45:16
I think there's a bit of self-esteem
45:17
is just happening there.
45:18
And on that note, stunning.
45:20
We'll wrap this one up.
45:21
Peter wants to buy stuff for Sapphire.
45:23
Oh yeah.
45:24
Oh yeah.
45:25
The podcast show notes.
45:26
Yeah.
45:27
The GoFundMe page.
45:28
Thank you so much for listening to Raisin the Curve.
45:30
These conversations are designed to teach you
45:32
everything you need to know to be better with your money.
45:34
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45:35
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45:37
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45:38
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45:39
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45:41
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45:42
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45:43
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45:45
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45:46
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45:49
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45:50
Yeah.
45:51
So please do it.
45:52
Okay.
45:53
Love you.
45:54
Bye.
45:55
Okay, quickly,
45:56
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45:57
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45:59
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46:01
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46:03
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46:05
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46:07
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46:08
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46:10
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46:13
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46:15
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46:17
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46:18
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46:19
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46:20
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