Transcript

Polls · Let's Ask the Mamas!

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We got a question for American mamas. Dear mamas, do you believe the
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polls? Well, let's ask our American mamas. Mama, Mama and joining
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us now our American mamas turned Outville and Kimberly Burlison. There have been lones
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of polls out since Donald Trump was found guilty of something or other, and
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honestly, I really have I know they don't even know either. So since
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that's come out, there have been a lot of polls that have either shown
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no change or they've shown Donald Trump actually gaining ground, specifically in some battleground
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states like Virginia, Tassa, which wasn't a battleground, Virginia is now a
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battle ground. Yeah, Pennsylvania, Virginia. Who would have thought? Who
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would have thought? But you know what, I don't even pay attention to
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polls anymore. Do you remember what they said about Hillary Clinton into tenty sixteen?
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She lay inside, you know what, I believe the polls so wholeheartedly
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that I didn't even yeah, oh yeah, I didn't even watch the election
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because I'm like, well, of course Hiller is going to win, because
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all the polls have her winning at you know, ninety percent. So I
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didn't even watch the election because I thought there's no way I did go vote,
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Thank goodness, because I absolutely wanted Trump to win, but never did
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I dream he would win. That's interesting because I treat the polls kind of
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like my background in meteorology, because every day you get computer models that come
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out telling you what the weather's going to be like, and every day those
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models are wrong in some way, shape or form. Every computer model that
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ever comes out, from the moment it is published, it is wrong in
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one way or another. And the key to being a good meteorologist is to
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figure out how those polls are, how those models are wrong, what are
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they getting wrong, and how do you adjust for that in your forecast.
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So that's really these days the key to figuring out how to predict the weather.
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I approach politics and much the same way. I just simply assume every
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single poll is wrong from the moment it comes out. The question is why
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and how. So it's not just whether it's accurate or not, but whether
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it's useful as a forecasting device. Interesting, you know, I believe that
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it depends on who is doing the polling. Uh huh, who are they
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polling if they're lying? Because I don't believe after the whole vaccine stuff,
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and you had these experts over here saying this, and these experts over here,
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so it kind of depends on who you're listening to. But I stilly,
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and whether the people in the poll are lying, yeah, and the
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people being asked the question. Right, Here's what I think. There's two
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things that I think about this. So when they gave that poll number about
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Hillary and we all believed it, were they purposely putting out fake numbers so
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that people like us would be like, wouldn't show up up? I mean,
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if she's gonna live or let's say that they now they're saying, oh
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Trump, Trump's got the battleground stays he's winning all over the place. Are
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they now doing that so that we go, well, he's got it?
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So ver psychologises like I don't trust anything or anybody from media anymore when it
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comes to this sort of thing. And the other thing I noticed about myself.
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I believe the polls I want to believe, and I don't believe the
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ones I don't. So if I see on YouTube, let's say CNN says
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or you know, one of those whacka duos say, oh my gosh,
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you know Trump's down, you know Biden's up ten points or whatever. I'm
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like, there's no shot that is a lie. But then if I see
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on Fox News or if I see Megan Kelly says, oh, the polls
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here show that Trump's up ten I'm like, absolutely, you know what I
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mean. So I'm the wor like I'm the worst person to ask about this
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because I believe what I want to believe. I go with my gut.
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Now, I go with what I see, Like when you could pull a
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crowd of one hundred thousand people in a day where you're being you know,
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convicted of a crime, and then this one Biden can't go into a taco
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bell without having people be like ignoring him as he walks through. I'm going
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with my eyes, I'm going with my heart, gone with my gut.
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So I believe that the poles when they say that Trump's the head, I
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believe it. I just do what about you? I come back again to
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the weather, because again, what you're talking about is there's some poles.
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It's not that I don't believe them, but I add in a fudge factor.
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So there's a weather model called the nam Nest North American model nesteds and
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it's a tighter grid. One of the things that model does is it brings
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in more rainfall than there's actually is in reality. So if it's showing a
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whole bunch of light showers, odds are there's not actually any rain in that
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area at that time. So I'll look at that and go, oh,
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that's what that model does wrong. Is it brings in too much rain too
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soon. So I'll do the same fudge factor on a pole. If I
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know that a pole is being run by a left wing outfit, I will
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go, Okay, I think they're gonna have some They're bringing in rain for
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the Democrats more than it should be. And even on the right wing,
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although there are really a whole bunch of right wing polls. Rass must and
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maybe you could you could say that there may be a fudge factory you have
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to do and go okay, I'll take that with a grain of salt and
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I'll pull it back one or two points. But when you have a general
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trend of models, and this is this is where it becomes useful. So
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if a model for the left was saying Trump was going to lose by five
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points and now the model for the left is Trump's going to lose by three
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points. I will buy that there's been movement towards Trump right by two points.
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The question is where is the middle now? It's probably not the negative
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three. It may be a positive five for Trump, but it is definitely
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moving. Well, you mentioned something a minute ago that makes me question things
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you just said. Are they telling the truth? Yeah? Do you think
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that people now are more afraid to You know, back then people didn't want
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to say they were for Trump because you didn't want it canceled. It was
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like crazy TDS was big. Do you think people now don't give a rip
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or do you think they're still nervous to say who they really want? I
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think it depends upon the market where you're pulling. That's true. Let's say,
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if you like askar American Mama was a question, go to our website
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Turned out of it, can't really listen. Thank you so much,