Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/3/26: MAGA Abuser Doubles Down, Spain Migrant Crisis, New York Sues Kalshi

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8/3/26: MAGA Abuser Doubles Down, Spain Migrant Crisis, New York Sues Kalshi · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
0:01
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0:33
Speaker 2: Last week we covered the horrific abuse allegations against Representative
0:38
Speaker 2: Max Miller, who is still running for reelection, and he
0:42
Speaker 2: announced over the weekend I'm going to have a big
0:45
Speaker 2: speech on Sunday morning, and so people were watching wondering
0:49
Speaker 2: whether he was going to drop out given the severity
0:52
Speaker 2: of these abuse allegations, both against his ex wife and
0:55
Speaker 2: against his own child. But no, in fact, he doubled
0:59
Speaker 2: down and denied that any of this was true. Let's
1:02
Speaker 2: go ahead and take a listen to a little bit
1:04
Speaker 2: of what he had to say.
1:05
Speaker 4: My former wife has claimed that during a custody exchange
1:08
Speaker 4: at my home that day, I assaulted her. Here's what
1:12
Speaker 4: actually happened, and I have the ring doorbell footage that
1:15
Speaker 4: backs it up. She came to my home in a
1:18
Speaker 4: good mood, and we have text messages to prove it,
1:21
Speaker 4: which you'll have to pick up our daughter early for
1:24
Speaker 4: our friend's birthday party. She was inside my house for
1:28
Speaker 4: several minutes when she left. The video shows her walking
1:32
Speaker 4: out carrying our daughter calm, in the same good mood,
1:36
Speaker 4: showing no distress whatsoever. And as they left, you can
1:40
Speaker 4: hear me say goodbye, I love you and I love
1:44
Speaker 4: you Ruthie, literally telling my ex wife.
1:47
Speaker 1: That I still cared for her.
1:50
Speaker 4: Does that sound like somebody who would just walk out
1:53
Speaker 4: and who had been violently thrown a wall and been abused.
1:57
Speaker 4: She didn't call the police after that. She didn't go
1:59
Speaker 4: to the hospital. Ladies and gentlemen, do you want to
2:02
Speaker 4: know what she did? She went straight to a child's
2:05
Speaker 4: birthday party. The very next day, we had a friendly
2:09
Speaker 4: phone call about our daughter's upcoming hospital procedure, and I
2:12
Speaker 4: drove in from Washington to be there for it.
2:16
Speaker 1: Six days later.
2:17
Speaker 4: She offered a cook empanadus for me for dinner just
2:20
Speaker 4: two days later after this alleged incident. The day after that,
2:25
Speaker 4: she invited me and my girlfriend and which you'll have
2:28
Speaker 4: in text messages, to join her and our daughter at
2:31
Speaker 4: a playground. And that day I just went with my
2:35
Speaker 4: former wife to the playground to spend time with our daughter.
2:40
Speaker 4: A week later, on February fifteenth, she wrote to me
2:45
Speaker 4: in her own words which you will see, I think
2:49
Speaker 4: it's great you and I are in a friendlier place.
2:53
Speaker 4: She then offered me more extra overnights with our daughter,
2:57
Speaker 4: which I can proved every single one of you is recent.
3:00
Speaker 4: Every one of these messages is timestamped on our court
3:04
Speaker 4: sanctioned co parenting app and is all in the packet.
3:07
Speaker 4: Only weeks later did the story of February first assault
3:11
Speaker 4: a pierre. So ask yourself if I had assaulted her,
3:16
Speaker 4: would she had offer to cook meat dinner six days later?
3:19
Speaker 4: Would she have invited me to spend an afternoon at
3:22
Speaker 4: the playground with her and our daughter. Would she have
3:25
Speaker 4: written that we were in a friendlier place. No, she
3:29
Speaker 4: wouldn't have Ladies and gentlemen.
3:32
Speaker 5: So there's a lot to say about that.
3:34
Speaker 2: First of all the fact that she had made some
3:37
Speaker 2: efforts at sort of maintaining the peace and keeping up
3:40
Speaker 2: relations with this man who continues to have shared custody
3:43
Speaker 2: of her daughter. I don't think disproves any of the
3:46
Speaker 2: abuse allegations. He makes a lot of claims in this
3:50
Speaker 2: twenty minute speech he gave here. I watched the whole thing.
3:54
Speaker 2: One of the claims that he makes is definitively untrue.
3:57
Speaker 2: He says, all of the allegations of abuse from his
4:01
Speaker 2: ex wife, who by the way, her father is Republican
4:04
Speaker 2: Senator Bernie Moreno, put a pin in that we'll get
4:07
Speaker 2: to that in just a moment.
4:08
Speaker 5: That is not true.
4:10
Speaker 2: Stephanie Grisham, who was part of the first Trump White House,
4:13
Speaker 2: was in a relationship with him and alleged that he
4:16
Speaker 2: threw her up against the wall and slapped her when
4:18
Speaker 2: she accused him of cheating on her. There were allegations
4:22
Speaker 2: against him in high school that he allegedly threw a
4:25
Speaker 2: girl down the stairs. In high school, there were allegations
4:29
Speaker 2: that came out in the custody hearings that he was
4:32
Speaker 2: expelled from college for violence against a woman and mother.
4:36
Speaker 2: Jones has done the most comprehensive reporting on this, and
4:40
Speaker 2: you spoke to some of the people who were involved
4:42
Speaker 2: here who stand by their stories alleging abuse against him.
4:45
Speaker 2: So it is simply not true that the only abuse
4:48
Speaker 2: allegations come from his ex wife. In addition, he released
4:54
Speaker 2: a bunch of audio and contemporaneous records to try to
4:59
Speaker 2: clear or his name. And so we learn one thing,
5:02
Speaker 2: which is that he was apparently surreptitiously recording his ex
5:06
Speaker 2: wife and other loved ones, which is you know, it
5:09
Speaker 2: was legal, I guess in the state of Ohio, but
5:11
Speaker 2: very shady behavior. In any case, one of those audios
5:16
Speaker 2: seems to really undermine some of the stories that he's
5:19
Speaker 2: been telling as well. He told the New York Post
5:22
Speaker 2: one of the abuse allegations was that he had thrown
5:25
Speaker 2: scalding hot water at his ex wife and that she
5:29
Speaker 2: had you know, she had marks from this water. He
5:32
Speaker 2: had told the New York Posts this never happened, and
5:34
Speaker 2: that the marks that we have pictures of on her
5:37
Speaker 2: skin were from a sunburn. In one of the audios
5:40
Speaker 2: that he himself released, he seems to acknowledge that this
5:44
Speaker 2: scalding hot water incident occurred. However, he purports that they
5:48
Speaker 2: were just horsing around in the kitchen and he sprayed
5:50
Speaker 2: her with the tap water and it couldn't have been
5:52
Speaker 2: that hot to injure or burn her. Let's go and
5:55
Speaker 2: take a listen to this surreptitious recording that he provided
5:58
Speaker 2: of this interaction between him and his ex wife.
6:01
Speaker 4: It never was done to hurt you. And you know
6:04
Speaker 4: that you were weaponizing this because of my previous allegation,
6:07
Speaker 4: and then you knew it was because.
6:10
Speaker 5: I was crying, So.
6:13
Speaker 4: I didn't need to hurt you.
6:14
Speaker 1: I didn't need to hurt you.
6:15
Speaker 4: Why are you scared me? Why? Yeah, I didn't mean
6:18
Speaker 4: to hurt you. It wasn't done with intent. You just
6:20
Speaker 4: said it yourself. You literally just said it yourself. It
6:24
Speaker 4: wasn't done to hurt you. And I told you before
6:27
Speaker 4: that not to come over to me and start screwing
6:29
Speaker 4: around with me.
6:30
Speaker 5: It was Emily you are taking.
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Speaker 4: You know, you're taking a playful incident and making something
6:36
Speaker 4: the fairiers of Emily going out of the faucet. It
6:41
Speaker 4: does not get to a temperature of boiling water. It
6:44
Speaker 4: does not put it. I did it, and I tested it,
6:49
Speaker 4: and I had our attorneys tested because I figured that
6:51
Speaker 4: this is what you were going to come at me with.
6:53
Speaker 4: And it's literally, well no, no, but literally it's like
6:56
Speaker 4: standing under a hot shower and we already have someone
6:58
Speaker 4: to go ahead and combat. This is what you're going
7:01
Speaker 4: to do.
7:02
Speaker 2: And so Tiger, let me get you to weigh in.
7:04
Speaker 2: But just so people know the totality of the allegation
7:07
Speaker 2: she's making here, there's not only the scalding water allegation.
7:11
Speaker 2: She also alleges that he held a gun to her head.
7:14
Speaker 2: Their daughter's collarbone was broken, and she suspects that he
7:19
Speaker 2: may have been to blame. She says that the daughter
7:21
Speaker 2: has told her that daddy's house is quote scary, and
7:25
Speaker 2: there's a bunch of other stuff from there at court hearings.
7:28
Speaker 2: That is just like, you know, horrifying treatment of the
7:31
Speaker 2: woman who just gave birth to your child. Abandoned again, allegations,
7:35
Speaker 2: abandoned her after like two days after she gave birth,
7:39
Speaker 2: refused to be present for the childbirth, made all sorts
7:41
Speaker 2: of like derogatory comments about her body given that she
7:46
Speaker 2: had just given birth to a child. So that's the
7:49
Speaker 2: sort of stuff that we're that we're dealing with here.
7:51
Speaker 3: Right, And like you said, Miller, denies it all, and
7:53
Speaker 3: he's actually suing both Moreno and Grisham for defamation. He
7:58
Speaker 3: released that speech in to defend himself, I mean, objectively
8:03
Speaker 3: looking at all of it, like you said, with the
8:06
Speaker 3: a lot of the incidents from Mother Jones's report, again
8:10
Speaker 3: which Miller had been contacted for comment and which he denied.
8:13
Speaker 1: Many of these.
8:14
Speaker 3: However, some of it at least comes from court records.
8:17
Speaker 3: What you could see, you know, in that audio, at
8:19
Speaker 3: least the one that he released, is he is admitting
8:22
Speaker 3: that there was.
8:22
Speaker 1: Some hot water or all of that involved.
8:24
Speaker 6: You know.
8:24
Speaker 3: Part of this is just seems so silly. It's like,
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Speaker 3: why are you speaking to the mother of your child
8:28
Speaker 3: like that? Like what are you doing? Like That's that's
8:30
Speaker 3: where I just followed down, especially when you have a
8:32
Speaker 3: two year old daughter, and then this bitter custody dispute
8:36
Speaker 3: in which there's clearly like insane antagonism from his side,
8:41
Speaker 3: and you know, just the general like would she have
8:43
Speaker 3: offered to cook me dinner?
8:45
Speaker 1: Six?
8:45
Speaker 3: I'm like, dude, yeah, you share you know, a child,
8:47
Speaker 3: so they probably want to keep things like somewhat amicable.
8:51
Speaker 3: Even if there had been some situation between the two
8:54
Speaker 3: of you as you well pointed out, Trump was asked
8:57
Speaker 3: about this, by the way, because he is actually running
9:00
Speaker 3: for reelection.
9:01
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say.
9:09
Speaker 6: Well, I'm going to look at it, and I've been
9:11
Speaker 6: so far it's accusations. I'll be looking at.
9:14
Speaker 3: It, said, so far, it's just accusations. I'll be looking
9:18
Speaker 3: at it. That's part of the problem for the Republicans.
9:20
Speaker 3: This is too late, i think, or at least from
9:22
Speaker 3: what they've said, to replace him. We did have Bernie Marino.
9:26
Speaker 3: We could put C four up here on the screen,
9:28
Speaker 3: the sitting senator from Ohio, whose daughter Emily, is the
9:32
Speaker 3: person who obviously is in the center of all of this.
9:35
Speaker 3: He says, as a father and a husband, I can
9:37
Speaker 3: tell you the last two years have been pure hell
9:39
Speaker 3: for my wife, Bridget, our daughter Emily, me our entire family.
9:43
Speaker 3: In the aftermath of Emily's divorce. It has been horrific
9:47
Speaker 3: to watch this play out in public view, all while
9:50
Speaker 3: knowing an innocent two year old girl is caught in
9:52
Speaker 3: the middle. My priority has been protecting our daughter and
9:54
Speaker 3: our granddaughter. Out of concern for the safety of my family,
9:56
Speaker 3: I hope to keep this matter private. But Max Miller's
9:59
Speaker 3: increasingly erratic, erratic and dangerous behavior has made it impossible.
10:03
Speaker 3: As he admitted privately, Max Miller needs serious psychological help.
10:07
Speaker 3: He's a danger to my daughter. I hold my breath
10:09
Speaker 3: every minute he has customy my granddaughter. If there are
10:11
Speaker 3: any basic standards of character required to hold elected office,
10:15
Speaker 3: Miller fails them.
10:16
Speaker 1: He should not serve in the House of Representatives.
10:18
Speaker 3: I believe Miller needs to seek professional help to end
10:21
Speaker 3: the clear pattern of abuse he has left in his wake.
10:23
Speaker 3: I believe he should not be free to continue in
10:25
Speaker 3: endangering others until he does. I ran for office because
10:28
Speaker 3: I wanted to make a difference, etc.
10:30
Speaker 1: He says.
10:30
Speaker 3: The sacrifice has been very hard on my wife, Bridget,
10:32
Speaker 3: whose big heart and study support I've never waivered. I
10:35
Speaker 3: owe it to her, Emily, and to my granddaughter to
10:37
Speaker 3: speak the truth.
10:38
Speaker 1: Now.
10:38
Speaker 3: That was the first time that he has actually said
10:41
Speaker 3: anything about the situation, which is kind of mind boggling
10:45
Speaker 3: considering it's his own daughter and granddaughter at the center
10:48
Speaker 3: of it. I did ask around, and apparently one of
10:50
Speaker 3: the reasons why had to do with some of the
10:52
Speaker 3: custody disputes and some of the re election stuff that's
10:56
Speaker 3: going on behind the scenes. But nonetheless, Chalking Miller has responded,
11:02
Speaker 3: by the way, see five, let's put it up here
11:03
Speaker 3: on the screen. He said, Bernie Marino, if my daughter
11:07
Speaker 3: said the same thing to me, I personally wouldn't wait
11:09
Speaker 3: two years before holding him accountable. You know this isn't true,
11:12
Speaker 3: and the only reason you are speaking out now is
11:14
Speaker 3: to hide from your own media circus.
11:16
Speaker 1: This is all political.
11:18
Speaker 3: He appears to be insinuating that he has some dirt
11:22
Speaker 3: on Bernie Moreno and has said that now for many years.
11:26
Speaker 3: I mean, it does have kind of a point saying
11:27
Speaker 3: I wouldn't have waited two years to be able to
11:29
Speaker 3: come out. But nonetheless, this is a bitter and a
11:33
Speaker 3: very dramatic situation in the Ohio Congressional delegation, which does
11:37
Speaker 3: highlight too. You know, you just had this whole platinum
11:40
Speaker 3: situation going on with the Democrat. He obviously dropped out immediately,
11:44
Speaker 3: but Republicans still, I mean mostly you are either silent
11:47
Speaker 3: or are rallying around him because they don't want to
11:50
Speaker 3: lose the seat. I have not looked at the odds
11:53
Speaker 3: or the polling in his district, but I can't imagine
11:56
Speaker 3: that this is going to be helpful.
11:59
Speaker 5: Yeah. No.
12:01
Speaker 2: So, first of all, on the political front, Moreno is
12:05
Speaker 2: the only one, literally the only elected Republican in Washington
12:10
Speaker 2: who has said that he should not be in Congress.
12:12
Speaker 5: That's it.
12:13
Speaker 2: And yeah, there's a direct contrast with the platinerm situation.
12:17
Speaker 2: You know, when there was a credible sexual assault threat
12:19
Speaker 2: and some of these very same people who are now
12:22
Speaker 2: running around on the Republican side and saying Miller's a
12:24
Speaker 2: great guy and I'm helping him get reelected are the
12:26
Speaker 2: same people who are, you know, cassiating Democrats for their
12:29
Speaker 2: lack of morals. So you can see, I mean it's
12:32
Speaker 2: you know, it's trite at this point to make the
12:35
Speaker 2: hypocrisy point, but it's just so overwhelmingly in your face
12:38
Speaker 2: with this one that it's hard to avoid. So there's
12:42
Speaker 2: that he So with regard to Moreno, this had come
12:45
Speaker 2: out during his campaign and I had forgotten about this,
12:48
Speaker 2: but his work account, Moreno's had been used to set
12:52
Speaker 2: up a profile on a gay dating website where said
12:57
Speaker 2: profile indicated was looking for on one situations with quote
13:02
Speaker 2: unquote young men. A staffer came out and said that
13:04
Speaker 2: he had set this up as some sort of a gag.
13:07
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of speculation.
13:08
Speaker 2: That maybe that is what Miller is threatening Moreno with
13:13
Speaker 2: to reveal. He's texted him something like, you know, I'll
13:17
Speaker 2: reveal things that show you know, show people I know
13:21
Speaker 2: you even better than your wife does, something of that nature.
13:23
Speaker 2: And so anyway, that's a speculation in terms of what
13:27
Speaker 2: Max Miller has on Bernie Marino. Of course, none of
13:29
Speaker 2: us really know what the you know substance or if
13:33
Speaker 2: there is any substance of allegations against Moreno. One other
13:36
Speaker 2: piece here just in terms of the credibility the allegations
13:39
Speaker 2: against Miller. There's also a note that The Daily Mail
13:44
Speaker 2: was able to get their hands on that allegedly happened
13:47
Speaker 2: that Miller wrote to his ex wife right after the
13:51
Speaker 2: alleged water scalding incident occurred, where he said to her,
13:56
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. I do know you
13:58
Speaker 2: love me, protect me and care for me. I failed
14:00
Speaker 2: to do that for you. It's eating me alive. I
14:04
Speaker 2: love you, even if you think I don't. I love
14:06
Speaker 2: you so much. I'm so sorry. I'm just a fuck
14:09
Speaker 2: up and worthless. So Moreno contends that this was a
14:14
Speaker 2: sort of like apology for the water scalding incident, which
14:17
Speaker 2: would indicate that he knows that he heard her. He
14:20
Speaker 2: claims this that was not the context of this note.
14:22
Speaker 2: It was around some sort of like political dispute. So
14:26
Speaker 2: in any case, I just wanted to put that out
14:28
Speaker 2: there in terms of backing up her story and the
14:32
Speaker 2: credibility therein. But the withdrawal deadline in Ohio is August fifths,
14:39
Speaker 2: two days from now. Doesn't look like he's dropping out.
14:42
Speaker 2: It's a district in Ohio that Trump won by eleven points. However,
14:48
Speaker 2: when Bernie Moreno ran for the Senate, he only won
14:52
Speaker 2: this district by one point. So I think it very
14:54
Speaker 2: much is you know, in play for Democrats, the Democratic
14:58
Speaker 2: nominee seems to be pretty strong. Brian Poindexter is a
15:02
Speaker 2: union iron worker, position himself as a populist, So you know,
15:06
Speaker 2: I think this is the weird thing to me with
15:08
Speaker 2: Republicans just standing by him in lockstep is I don't
15:11
Speaker 2: actually think that this is a smart tactical decision for them,
15:14
Speaker 2: because if they just got some run of the mill,
15:17
Speaker 2: generic Republican in there, the seat would likely they'd be
15:21
Speaker 2: able to hang on to it. But with him, because
15:24
Speaker 2: he is you know, uniquely has these horrifying allegations against him,
15:29
Speaker 2: and many people won't want to vote for him because
15:31
Speaker 2: of that reason.
15:32
Speaker 5: He puts the seat in jeopardy.
15:33
Speaker 2: And then the last thing I'll say about him is
15:35
Speaker 2: he genuinely would not exist as a political figure without Trump.
15:40
Speaker 5: He you know, had.
15:41
Speaker 2: Issues in college, and he he becomes like an intern
15:45
Speaker 2: on Marco Rubio's campaign, and then when Rubio drops down,
15:48
Speaker 2: then he goes over to Trump.
15:50
Speaker 5: Trump likes him.
15:51
Speaker 2: He ends up in charge of part of Trump's advanced team,
15:55
Speaker 2: you know, in an aid in the first Trump White House.
15:57
Speaker 5: And then once this.
15:58
Speaker 2: Seat, I think the guy who held the previously had
16:01
Speaker 2: voted for trump impeachment after January sixth, So Trump was like, okay,
16:04
Speaker 2: we got the perfect guy, endorses him.
16:06
Speaker 5: There you go.
16:07
Speaker 2: He's a congressman, so you know, this is a Trump
16:10
Speaker 2: loyalist through and through, truly, you know, creature of the
16:13
Speaker 2: Maga movement. He's also one of the most like pro
16:15
Speaker 2: genocide freaks in the entire Congress, which is really saying something.
16:18
Speaker 2: So anyway, that's a little bit of the political backstory.
16:21
Speaker 3: I knew more about the Gaza angle and how dedicated
16:24
Speaker 3: he is to Israel that's what he originally came on
16:27
Speaker 3: my radar four.
16:29
Speaker 1: I guess if you will.
16:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like you said, One thing I have
16:33
Speaker 3: heard often in Washington is that many Republicans think it
16:36
Speaker 3: was such a huge mistake to kick out George Santos
16:39
Speaker 3: because it really hurt their margins in the House of Representatives,
16:44
Speaker 3: and currently where the Republican margin is, it's so razor thin.
16:47
Speaker 3: They just think that they can't accept even kicking out
16:51
Speaker 3: somebody who's so obviously deserving. I know, I think Jim
16:53
Speaker 3: Jordan has been asked about this before, so yeah, you
16:56
Speaker 3: could see that logic very clearly on display or all
17:00
Speaker 3: of them.
17:00
Speaker 1: But obviously why not just.
17:02
Speaker 5: Have him not run for re election?
17:03
Speaker 6: Yeah?
17:04
Speaker 3: They can't force him to, right, I mean at the
17:05
Speaker 3: end of the I mean, I guess they can. They
17:06
Speaker 3: could say, look, you're not going to get a dollar
17:08
Speaker 3: from the committee or any of that, but.
17:09
Speaker 1: He might just say, you know, we have no idea.
17:13
Speaker 5: Yeah.
17:13
Speaker 3: Well yeah, I mean, also it comes down to Trump.
17:15
Speaker 3: Trump could just come in and say you're done, I'm
17:17
Speaker 3: going to endorse somebody else. We all know that the
17:19
Speaker 3: Republican base would vote for it.
17:21
Speaker 2: But yeah, well that's what I really think is going on.
17:24
Speaker 2: I think they're all taking there the lead from Trump.
17:27
Speaker 2: They don't want to get crosswise with him. They know
17:29
Speaker 2: this is his guy, and so since he is standing
17:32
Speaker 2: by him, they're all going to stand by and that's
17:34
Speaker 2: how they make their decisions.
17:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
17:36
Speaker 3: All right, We got Wan David Rojas standing by to
17:38
Speaker 3: talk about Swain Spain.
17:39
Speaker 1: Let's get to it, all.
17:43
Speaker 5: Right, guys.
17:43
Speaker 2: There was a wild situation unfolded, unfolding in Seouta, Spain,
17:48
Speaker 2: a place that I did not know exists, but I
17:51
Speaker 2: am now learning a lot about. So this is across
17:53
Speaker 2: from the Spanish mainland, right next to Morocco and on
17:56
Speaker 2: the street of Gibraltar. What you see here is of
18:00
Speaker 2: thousands of migrants who suddenly surged to and over the
18:05
Speaker 2: border into this Spanish territory. There were images that immediately
18:11
Speaker 2: seemed to suggest this was some sort of an organized movement,
18:15
Speaker 2: not only because the flood of people who suddenly emerged,
18:18
Speaker 2: but also because you saw them arriving on trucks and
18:22
Speaker 2: being unloaded near the border. We now have a lot
18:25
Speaker 2: of testimony from some of the migrants, most of whom
18:28
Speaker 2: have now returned to Morocco, but some of the migrants
18:30
Speaker 2: who were part of this wave, saying that they were
18:33
Speaker 2: encouraged by the Moroccan authorities there at the border, saying
18:37
Speaker 2: also that there were a lot of Facebook posts saying, hey,
18:40
Speaker 2: the Spanish border is open. You can see here people
18:44
Speaker 2: who are struggling, collapsing on the beach there. You know,
18:48
Speaker 2: there were migrants who were killed and injured as part
18:51
Speaker 2: of whatever this was. And so now to talk about
18:54
Speaker 2: what exactly happened here and why there are suspicions that
18:58
Speaker 2: the US and Israel could have been involved in what
19:02
Speaker 2: would be a sort of hybrid war operation. Is Wanda
19:06
Speaker 2: vid Rojas. He is a calmness at unheard. He has
19:09
Speaker 2: a new article up. We can put D two up
19:11
Speaker 2: on the screen, and his headline here is did Maga
19:15
Speaker 2: create the Seyuta crisis? Morocco is cozying up to Trump.
19:20
Speaker 2: Welcome one, great to see.
19:21
Speaker 1: You, Good to see you man, Thanks for having me
19:23
Speaker 1: on guys.
19:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, of course.
19:25
Speaker 2: So just start by giving a little versati all correct
19:27
Speaker 2: anything that I said that might have been wrong. Give
19:29
Speaker 2: a little bit of backstory here about what this place is,
19:33
Speaker 2: what happened, and why it has so much significance.
19:36
Speaker 7: Yeah, So around sixty thousand migrants over I think it
19:41
Speaker 7: was on Friday or Thursday, cross over into the Spanish
19:44
Speaker 7: territory called Sayuta. And so Spain actually has these two
19:48
Speaker 7: enclaves across the Strait of Gibraltar on the coast of Morocco,
19:52
Speaker 7: Sayuta and Melida. There are just these like two cities
19:55
Speaker 7: completely surrounded by Morocco and they've actually controlled them since
20:00
Speaker 7: the fourteen hundreds. But you know, it's been a point
20:03
Speaker 7: of contention between Spain and Morocco. Morocco says that it
20:07
Speaker 7: should be theirs on account of, you know, the geographical location.
20:11
Speaker 7: But you know, this area of the world is really
20:13
Speaker 7: interesting if you're into the decolonial stuff, because you have
20:17
Speaker 7: Gibraltar itself, which is you know, controlled by the UK,
20:20
Speaker 7: which Spain says should be theirs. And then on the
20:23
Speaker 7: other hand, Morocco claims all of what's called Western Sahara
20:27
Speaker 7: further south, which used to be a Spanish territory as well.
20:31
Speaker 7: Spain handed it control over to it in Morocco, and
20:33
Speaker 7: there's been an insurgency there because of the sarawi Is,
20:36
Speaker 7: the native people of a Western Sahara don't want to
20:39
Speaker 7: be part of Morocco, and this is a horrific it's
20:41
Speaker 7: kind of like a Palestine situation. They built like wall
20:45
Speaker 7: to keep out like the separatists and have like an
20:47
Speaker 7: exchange fire with these insurgents for a long time, and
20:51
Speaker 7: actually for decades, Morocco has used these two cities, sautn
20:56
Speaker 7: Melija in order to get at Spain and also Algeria
21:00
Speaker 7: for like supporting these Sarawi separatists. And so a lot
21:07
Speaker 7: of analysts have thought that because Spain had been like
21:11
Speaker 7: forging closer relations with Algeria, which allegedly provides support to
21:15
Speaker 7: the Sarawi's, Morocco just decided, hey, you know what, We're
21:19
Speaker 7: just gonna screw Spain like this now going a step further.
21:24
Speaker 7: You know, Morocco doesn't need it doesn't really take orders
21:28
Speaker 7: from anyone there, the king there, that they have their
21:31
Speaker 7: own internal politics and whatnot. But I definitely think they
21:35
Speaker 7: feel emboldened because in recent years Morocco has really forged
21:39
Speaker 7: close ties with Israel.
21:41
Speaker 1: In the US.
21:41
Speaker 7: In twenty twenty, under Trump's first administration, the Abraham Accords,
21:46
Speaker 7: Morocco was a signatory, and in exchange, the Trump administration
21:50
Speaker 7: recognized Morocco's control over Western Sahara. Then in more recent years,
21:56
Speaker 7: like the Trump administration hosted these like covert talks with
22:00
Speaker 7: like Morocco and other countries over like the Western Sahara issue.
22:04
Speaker 1: Uh and uh and but the.
22:06
Speaker 7: Interesting thing is like if you look at Maga, all
22:08
Speaker 7: of a sudden they care a lot about these two
22:10
Speaker 7: cities South Melitia. Why is that?
22:13
Speaker 6: And Uh?
22:14
Speaker 7: Like in March, uh Diaz a representative Diaz Bullart from
22:19
Speaker 7: here in South Florida. He said that, uh, South and
22:23
Speaker 7: Melitia should belong to Morocco and that Spain is a
22:26
Speaker 7: colonial power, which is crazy. He's basically like in toning
22:29
Speaker 7: Fidel Castro, I argued in the piece.
22:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, so uh, it's a it's nuts.
22:35
Speaker 7: Thomas Massey pointed out that last week the House passed
22:39
Speaker 7: a bill that would have given like forty million dollars
22:43
Speaker 7: to Morocco, and in the bill it recognizes South is
22:46
Speaker 7: Melijia as part of Morocco. So this is crazy stuff.
22:51
Speaker 7: Days before this, also, Morocco named its highway that goes
22:57
Speaker 7: through Western Sahara after Donald Trump. And Trump has a
23:00
Speaker 7: a true social post where he he says thank you
23:02
Speaker 7: to the Great King of Morocco. I hope to one
23:04
Speaker 7: day ride through this amazing, beautiful highway.
23:07
Speaker 1: And then the question, the question kind of is is
23:09
Speaker 1: like why now?
23:10
Speaker 3: And so I know there's been some there's been a
23:11
Speaker 3: lot of speculation, especially around Morocco and Israel's relationship. For example,
23:19
Speaker 3: we have D four we can put here on the screen,
23:22
Speaker 3: an extraordinary statement from Yayir Netsan Yahu. He is the
23:26
Speaker 3: son of Benjamin An, the Prime Minister of Israel. He
23:30
Speaker 3: said in twenty nineteen May twenty six, let's make a deal.
23:34
Speaker 3: We won't fund NGOs in your country calling you to
23:38
Speaker 3: give away Sueita and Mayiya, and you will stop funding
23:41
Speaker 3: NGOs in our country that calls us to give away
23:44
Speaker 3: Judea and Samaria. This is part of obviously the West
23:48
Speaker 3: Bank and Gaza in their parlance. This included actually a
23:52
Speaker 3: thread in a map that Yay're posted, including direct threats
23:56
Speaker 3: by Morocco to take over Sueita and Maia. So the
24:01
Speaker 3: Israel connection here somewhat interesting. This was one of many posts,
24:06
Speaker 3: including by it'smar Ben Gavier, the Israeli Foreign Ministry and others,
24:12
Speaker 3: attacking Spain after this migration wave. What is the connection there?
24:18
Speaker 7: Is it?
24:18
Speaker 3: Because of Spain's opposition to Israel and its conduct in Gaza.
24:23
Speaker 7: Exactly, exactly, Yeah, that was the last piece. So Spain
24:26
Speaker 7: under a prime minister, socialist prime minister at Pedro Sanchez,
24:29
Speaker 7: has been really critical both of the war in Gaza
24:32
Speaker 7: and now the Iran war, and even went as far
24:35
Speaker 7: as to not allow the US to dock its planes
24:38
Speaker 7: and that we have two bases inside of Spain. This
24:40
Speaker 7: is a huge deal the Rotain I forget the name
24:43
Speaker 7: of the other one, and so the MAGA has branded
24:46
Speaker 7: Spain like public enemy number one. And there's also the
24:48
Speaker 7: factor that they refuse to keep up with their defense
24:52
Speaker 7: spending commitments under NATO. But yeah, the Israeli is also, Yeah,
24:57
Speaker 7: this is they've been saying these kinds of things for
24:59
Speaker 7: years to get back at Spain because Sanchez has been
25:02
Speaker 7: in power since twenty eighteen, I believe. So, yeah, I
25:07
Speaker 7: definitely don't think it's a coincidence. Yeah. I mean I
25:11
Speaker 7: saw on like Newsmax they were saying, oh, the Spanish,
25:14
Speaker 7: look at this, it's because they're opposed to like Western civilization. Well,
25:17
Speaker 7: I mean it looks like you guys are kind of
25:19
Speaker 7: opposed to Western civilization right now.
25:22
Speaker 2: Right, let's go ahead and play to your point about
25:26
Speaker 2: the right wing interest here in Spain, Trump recently said
25:32
Speaker 2: there it's sort of issue a threat, said that the
25:34
Speaker 2: Spanish are not quote behaving nicely, but they will learn.
25:37
Speaker 2: Let's take a list of what he had to say.
25:39
Speaker 6: Ah, the Spanish the members of NATO, but not very
25:44
Speaker 6: good members of NATO. They say, no, we don't want
25:48
Speaker 6: to help other people.
25:49
Speaker 1: What are we doing?
25:50
Speaker 6: Huh, they are not behaving nicely. They will learn soon
25:56
Speaker 6: after they relinquish their grip on Cuba and the Philippage
26:01
Speaker 6: and Puerto Rico and they were all ours. They oh,
26:04
Speaker 6: we got them all.
26:07
Speaker 2: So interesting comments there from Trump. I'm also reminded one
26:11
Speaker 2: of a couple of other historical events here. One is
26:15
Speaker 2: my friend Yegor said that in Belarus Lukashenko did something
26:20
Speaker 2: very similar, bringing in migrants, mostly I rocky Kurdish migrants
26:26
Speaker 2: and using them and encouraging them, actually bringing them in
26:30
Speaker 2: on these like cheap flights and cheap tours supposedly a
26:33
Speaker 2: Belarus and then encouraging them to flutter over the border
26:35
Speaker 2: into Poland to sort of punish them for some things
26:38
Speaker 2: that they had done, sanctioning him and calling his election
26:40
Speaker 2: in question. It also of course, reminds very much of
26:43
Speaker 2: the Texas strategy of busing migrants into blue cities, into
26:47
Speaker 2: New York City, into Chicago, using people as ponds to
26:51
Speaker 2: make this sort of political point and create on difficult
26:54
Speaker 2: political situations for leaders that they're at odds with. So
26:58
Speaker 2: it's not like this would be a new tactic if
27:01
Speaker 2: it is, in fact, you know, the US and Israel
27:03
Speaker 2: that are encouraging this to go forward.
27:07
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's exactly right, exactly right. Another good example is Turkey,
27:10
Speaker 7: which has long used migration in order to like extort
27:14
Speaker 7: the EU for concessions. I mean, and that's just what
27:17
Speaker 7: Morocco has done for forever. And you pointed out to
27:21
Speaker 7: me that apparently they found like Moroccan intelligence agents among
27:26
Speaker 7: the migrants that crossed over into Sauta, and you think
27:29
Speaker 7: about it. Unfortunately, I'm gonna be real, this is you
27:32
Speaker 7: know regard you know, I think it's a confluence of things,
27:37
Speaker 7: but it's a savvy political move depending on well, you know,
27:41
Speaker 7: whether it's Morocco, Israel, and or the US staging this.
27:45
Speaker 7: Because you know, Sanchez has now put in this really
27:49
Speaker 7: difficult position. In January, he actually passed this insane amnesty
27:55
Speaker 7: for basically everyone who was in Spain or who had
27:59
Speaker 7: come to Spaining regularly, which you know me personally, all say,
28:03
Speaker 7: I think it's great for the migrants, and it's great
28:05
Speaker 7: to not have this underclass of uh, you know, illegal workers.
28:09
Speaker 7: But on the other hand, and the problem with these
28:11
Speaker 7: kinds of amnesty is it's true, if you don't have
28:13
Speaker 7: overwhelming enforcement on new arrivals, amnesty has just create a
28:17
Speaker 7: further incentive for more illegal immigration. And so Sanchez now
28:21
Speaker 7: has to decide. It's like, oh, do I clamp down
28:24
Speaker 7: or do I just kind of do nothing. And you know,
28:28
Speaker 7: Sianchez has done a number of good things. His stance
28:30
Speaker 7: on against the US and Israel and also raising the
28:33
Speaker 7: minimum wage a toen is extremely popular. You know, it's
28:35
Speaker 7: not popular the amnesty he did, which has like a
28:39
Speaker 7: sixty percent disapproval rating. Wow, So it's it's extremely rough.
28:45
Speaker 7: It seems like, you know, I gave the advice that
28:48
Speaker 7: he should the correct posture. I think for left to
28:51
Speaker 7: says to say, look, migrants are human beings. They should
28:53
Speaker 7: not be abused, but they also can't abuse the system,
28:56
Speaker 7: and we need to have you know, have territorial integrity.
29:00
Speaker 7: And he to his credit said that, you know, this
29:01
Speaker 7: incident was a gross violation of spain sovereignty and a
29:05
Speaker 7: majority of those that went into the city have already
29:07
Speaker 7: been expelled. So you know, we'll see in the long
29:10
Speaker 7: term what the electoral consequences are. There's an election, a
29:13
Speaker 7: general election next year in Spain and Sianchez. You know,
29:17
Speaker 7: he's a really crafty guy, but I don't know if
29:18
Speaker 7: he's going to be able to pull the rabbit out
29:20
Speaker 7: of the hat this time. He has these coalition partners
29:24
Speaker 7: whom adm blamos that are extremely progressive. They're the like
29:27
Speaker 7: no human being as a legal type of people. But
29:31
Speaker 7: they've been tanking in the polls and they and the
29:35
Speaker 7: Socialists have consistently won less votes than the PP and BOX,
29:40
Speaker 7: which are the right wing parties. So Sanchez needs to
29:44
Speaker 7: really figure things out. And like the last election, he
29:47
Speaker 7: managed to like cobble this coalition with like minor regional
29:50
Speaker 7: parties by granting amnesty another amnesty to Catalan separatists, and
29:54
Speaker 7: that's a whole other issues.
29:56
Speaker 3: So yeah, let's let's let's leave that Spanish epparti on
30:01
Speaker 3: the back burner. As you said, I just want to
30:02
Speaker 3: emphasize your point D six up here on the screen
30:06
Speaker 3: that Spanish police had found members of Moroccan intelligence amongst
30:11
Speaker 3: the migrants. This is from l Espanol in Spain in
30:15
Speaker 3: terms of their investigation into it. But as you said,
30:18
Speaker 3: I do think it will be a very interesting case.
30:21
Speaker 3: It caused a real diplomatic problem for Sanchez, not just
30:24
Speaker 3: with Morocco, but there were calls to expel or i
30:27
Speaker 3: think temporarily suspend their access to the Schengen, which is
30:30
Speaker 3: the free movement or inside of Europe, which would be
30:34
Speaker 3: a dramatic escalation for all the citizens obviously of Spain.
30:38
Speaker 3: Kind of defeats the entire purpose of the European Union
30:40
Speaker 3: and exactly the type of thing, as you said, that
30:42
Speaker 3: could invite electoral backlash Hymn because of how you know,
30:46
Speaker 3: people in Europe really liked.
30:47
Speaker 1: That, so wow, fascinating, fascinating.
30:49
Speaker 2: ASU was one one last one for you, just on
30:52
Speaker 2: the Israel connection here. Some of the speculation I saw
30:55
Speaker 2: is that, you know, Israel, in terms of being able
30:58
Speaker 2: to export their own goods there, they got some problems
31:02
Speaker 2: in the Red Sea now to put it mildly, and
31:06
Speaker 2: so their other alternative route is through the Mediterranean Sea.
31:09
Speaker 2: Which of course you have to go through the Strait
31:11
Speaker 2: of Gibraltar. So they have very, you know, great interest
31:14
Speaker 2: in what's going on right there. Do you think that
31:17
Speaker 2: could be part of the motivation for their uh, you know,
31:21
Speaker 2: their their interest in Seyuda?
31:22
Speaker 6: Hear.
31:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point.
31:24
Speaker 7: Some analysts have pointed out why Sayuta and not Melija,
31:28
Speaker 7: because Melija is is far away from the Strait of
31:31
Speaker 7: Gibraltar itself. The thing is, without Sayota, Spain would have
31:35
Speaker 7: no control over the straight Well, I guess arguably, but
31:39
Speaker 7: but you know, the two most important ports are Gibraltar
31:42
Speaker 7: and uh Sayota. And another thing that that reminded me.
31:45
Speaker 7: I'm not sure how much this applies now, but some
31:48
Speaker 7: months ago I saw that Iran had given like Spanish
31:51
Speaker 7: ship's passage through the Strait of Harmon. So yeah, you
31:54
Speaker 7: can imagine that the Israelis and the US have been
31:56
Speaker 7: furious about that, right.
31:58
Speaker 3: A really good point, man, fascinating stuff. Really had no
32:01
Speaker 3: idea all goes back to the Treaty of Lisbon in
32:03
Speaker 3: sixteen eighty eight. Who am I such a fool for
32:06
Speaker 3: not having learned about it?
32:07
Speaker 1: So thank you, thank you the colonial maga.
32:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, who was it that said, wars or how Americans
32:13
Speaker 2: learned geography.
32:14
Speaker 5: Apparently that process true, genuinely true.
32:18
Speaker 1: Okay, thanks man.
32:22
Speaker 3: A major lawsuit here in the United States between the
32:25
Speaker 3: State of New York and Calshie, let's put this up
32:27
Speaker 3: here on the screen. Calshi now being sued by New
32:30
Speaker 3: York State saying that the prediction market is running a
32:33
Speaker 3: quote illegal gambling operation, an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation. After
32:39
Speaker 3: Calshe had originally proposed a framework to avoid a lawsuit
32:43
Speaker 3: with the state. Calsh basically had come to the state
32:46
Speaker 3: and said, if you allow us to operate, we'll cut
32:48
Speaker 3: you in on revenue. They promised up to ten billion
32:51
Speaker 3: dollars in revenue for the state on an eventual basis
32:54
Speaker 3: if they were allowed to have some sort of allowed,
32:58
Speaker 3: some sort of action. The key point is that Calsh
33:01
Speaker 3: had proposed a North Carolina six percent tax on trades,
33:05
Speaker 3: while New York State currently has a twenty three percent
33:09
Speaker 3: tax on traditional gambling. So New York, they claim, would
33:13
Speaker 3: have raised ten billion dollars. Like I said, over five years,
33:16
Speaker 3: talks broke down and the state sued. But I do
33:18
Speaker 3: want to focus on that very specifically. This ultimately is
33:22
Speaker 3: about whether prediction markets will be allowed to operate nationwide,
33:27
Speaker 3: as in do states have the right to regulate gambling
33:31
Speaker 3: in their state. Calshi maintains till the day till the
33:35
Speaker 3: day is long, that they are not gambling, that they
33:37
Speaker 3: are a prediction market which is authorized under event contracts,
33:41
Speaker 3: which is written into Dodd Frank legislation, which specifically had
33:45
Speaker 3: said there are two things that you're not allowed to
33:47
Speaker 3: trade prediction mark or event contracts on ergo under that
33:50
Speaker 3: legal framework which has now been operationalized by the CFTC
33:54
Speaker 3: under Donald Trump. That any other event contract is allowed
33:57
Speaker 3: to be is allowed to be given nationwide.
34:00
Speaker 1: Thus states are not allowed to regulate it.
34:02
Speaker 3: However, if you actually look into some of the details,
34:05
Speaker 3: a lot of that begs belief in my opinion. Let's
34:08
Speaker 3: go to the next one for example, shall we. This
34:10
Speaker 3: is from Bloomberg and they just showed new data shows
34:14
Speaker 3: that parlay bets quote are burning gamblers. Again as there
34:18
Speaker 3: or there as the market booms on Calshi. So Calshi
34:22
Speaker 3: likes to operate and to tell us that they are
34:24
Speaker 3: an event contracting website in which people can hedge risk.
34:28
Speaker 3: They famously, very recently have pointed out an ice cream
34:31
Speaker 3: shop who hedges the risk of rain because their revenue
34:35
Speaker 3: is going to go down and this guy is able
34:36
Speaker 3: to pay his rent, or a guy who recently hosted
34:39
Speaker 3: a conference but he wanted to hedge the risk that
34:41
Speaker 3: flights would get canceled and thus make sure that he
34:43
Speaker 3: would make his money no matter what. The truth though,
34:46
Speaker 3: is that the vast majority of the contracts being traded
34:49
Speaker 3: on this website are just sports bets. So when we
34:52
Speaker 3: break down like, for example, these parlay bets, the very
34:54
Speaker 3: same things the degenerates are betting on FanDuel or DraftKings,
34:58
Speaker 3: they are losing some you know, hun of millions of
35:00
Speaker 3: dollars and what we can see in front of here,
35:03
Speaker 3: betters on Calshi's app and website since the start of
35:07
Speaker 3: the year, excluding fees, have lost a net two hundred
35:11
Speaker 3: and ninety four million dollars. The losses of these sports
35:16
Speaker 3: of wagers quote used to be largely captured by sportsbook
35:19
Speaker 3: but the prediction markets are now changing that dynamic by
35:21
Speaker 3: promoting similar trades to their small time customers. Again, the
35:25
Speaker 3: very same type of people who would be using these
35:27
Speaker 3: gambling apps in order to offer them. Of course, they
35:30
Speaker 3: demonstrate and talk to a lot of people who previously
35:33
Speaker 3: were on FanDuel, now they're doing it on Calshi. But
35:35
Speaker 3: if you're doing a quote unquote combo bet or a
35:38
Speaker 3: parlay bet, you are gambling at the end of the day.
35:41
Speaker 3: And Crystal, the reason why I wanted to highlight this
35:43
Speaker 3: is that I'm almost certain about what's going to happen.
35:46
Speaker 3: This date lawsuit is going to. What Calshi is offering
35:50
Speaker 3: is something called preemption. They're moving into federal court. They've
35:53
Speaker 3: had a mixed bag in terms of court rulings. Their
35:56
Speaker 3: ultimate goal is to get this before the United States
35:58
Speaker 3: Supreme Court. The Supreme Court, which is very libertarian, largely
36:02
Speaker 3: appointed here by Donald Trump, is almost certain to side
36:05
Speaker 3: with the Trump administration. The Trump administration CFTC, as I said,
36:09
Speaker 3: argues that these prediction markets are explicitly allowed by Dodd Frank.
36:13
Speaker 1: Thank you to Dodd Frank, by the way.
36:14
Speaker 3: And what it means is that you can have nationwide
36:17
Speaker 3: event contracts aka sports gambling.
36:20
Speaker 1: And why is that all important?
36:21
Speaker 3: Because first of all, it removes the ability, even though
36:24
Speaker 3: I don't support it, of the state to regulate at all.
36:27
Speaker 3: Number one, like we're talking here about the twenty three
36:29
Speaker 3: percent tax versus the six percent tax. But two, none
36:32
Speaker 3: of us really signed up for this. None of us
36:35
Speaker 3: knew that a Supreme Court case from twenty eighteen, and
36:39
Speaker 3: now these websites capitalized with hundreds of billions of dollars
36:42
Speaker 3: with all kinds of insider trading concerns and others, would
36:45
Speaker 3: make it so that there will be nationwide sports gambling
36:48
Speaker 3: and there's nothing that any of us can do about
36:50
Speaker 3: it at an individual state level, where at the very
36:52
Speaker 3: least we had previously understood that we had some control.
36:55
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, that's exactly right.
36:57
Speaker 2: There's a reason why Kels is so insistent that these
37:00
Speaker 2: are this is not gambling. These are futures contracts because
37:03
Speaker 2: futures contracts are regulated by the FEDS. Gambling is regulated
37:07
Speaker 2: by the states. They don't want states, and New York's
37:10
Speaker 2: not the only one, but they don't want states to
37:12
Speaker 2: be able to rein them in and regulate them. They
37:15
Speaker 2: want it to be left all to the federal level,
37:17
Speaker 2: and specifically to go to the Supreme Court because they
37:20
Speaker 2: know the libertarian bent there. Now, the flip side of
37:22
Speaker 2: this is you say, okay, well, if it's being regulated
37:24
Speaker 2: by the Feds, then does that mean that at the
37:26
Speaker 2: federal level, under maybe a different administration, we could ban
37:29
Speaker 2: or at least control this stuff. But you can bet
37:32
Speaker 2: if there was some law passed through Congress, Supreme Court
37:34
Speaker 2: would probably find a way to say that was unconstitutional
37:36
Speaker 2: as well.
37:37
Speaker 5: And that's where we really.
37:38
Speaker 2: Get into a failure of democracy that I think people
37:42
Speaker 2: are really experiencing here, not just with gambling, certainly on
37:46
Speaker 2: that front, but also on the AI data center front.
37:50
Speaker 2: There are things that are being done in our country
37:52
Speaker 2: right now that are completely transforming everything from individual communities
37:57
Speaker 2: and states all the way up to the entire world
38:01
Speaker 2: and the way that labor is going to operate in
38:03
Speaker 2: the economy that people have had effectively no say in.
38:07
Speaker 2: And so while you know, with the AI example on
38:10
Speaker 2: the data center front, there's been some local pushback that's
38:13
Speaker 2: been successful, I don't think anyone is under any illusion
38:16
Speaker 2: that nationwide they're going to build their data centers and
38:18
Speaker 2: they're going to get what they ultimately want. So it
38:21
Speaker 2: really does contribute to all of the ills that we've
38:24
Speaker 2: talked about here, the skyrocketing levels of depression, anxiety, suicide, bankruptcy,
38:30
Speaker 2: especially among young men, which have turned out to be
38:34
Speaker 2: quite a vulnerable demographic, but also in terms of the
38:37
Speaker 2: sense that society is being changed by oligarchs who stand
38:42
Speaker 2: to profit and make a lot of money, and we're
38:44
Speaker 2: being completely shut out of being able to shape that
38:47
Speaker 2: future and what it looks like at all.
38:49
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, can I give everyone a good example to
38:52
Speaker 3: for why everyone should just stay off of these? During
38:54
Speaker 3: the World Cup between Argentina and Spain, Cauci users traded
38:58
Speaker 3: thirty thousand unique same game combos aka parlay, with many
39:03
Speaker 3: attracting thousands of bets. In the end, fewer than three
39:07
Speaker 3: percent resolved to yes, what are we doing here? And
39:12
Speaker 3: people willingly throw their money into this? And did anybody
39:15
Speaker 3: else including me? Notice Shalome in his little calchi ad
39:19
Speaker 3: and then the Calshi with stuff all around the World Cup?
39:23
Speaker 3: And you know, I guess to their credit, they charge
39:25
Speaker 3: less and they make less than the sports book. It
39:28
Speaker 3: doesn't make it any more any worse. You know, the
39:31
Speaker 3: fact that they're still taking advantage of so many different
39:34
Speaker 3: people I guess who are willingly throwing their money away.
39:37
Speaker 3: And to this point, let's put E four up here
39:39
Speaker 3: on the screen. I mean, this is now the state
39:42
Speaker 3: of the United States. Gambling has now become America's favorite pastime.
39:47
Speaker 3: Americans now spend more on sports bets than movies, art, museums,
39:53
Speaker 3: and music combined.
39:56
Speaker 1: This happened in an eight.
39:58
Speaker 3: Year period from the league realization in twenty eighteen of
40:02
Speaker 3: the twenty eighteen Sport Supreme Court case to twenty twenty six.
40:06
Speaker 3: That's all it took for basically unfettered, you know, unfettered
40:11
Speaker 3: and exploitative oligarchic capitalism, combined with states that completely fell
40:18
Speaker 3: for this nonsense about how great all the tax revenue
40:21
Speaker 3: would be to it becoming more the most important entertainment
40:25
Speaker 3: industry in America. And again, how many of us really
40:29
Speaker 3: acquiesced to this. It all just came down to a
40:31
Speaker 3: Supreme Court case. People fell for a lot of lies.
40:35
Speaker 3: We now see an explosion in addiction and in bankruptcy.
40:39
Speaker 3: I've covered dozens of those types of cases. It will
40:41
Speaker 3: only continue to get.
40:43
Speaker 1: Worse, worse and worse.
40:45
Speaker 3: Actually, much of the polling is beginning to turn against
40:47
Speaker 3: this at the very time that it is becoming a
40:50
Speaker 3: nationwide pastime. So I just encourage again everybody to look
40:54
Speaker 3: deep inside and to say, is this actually making our
40:57
Speaker 3: country better? Or is it a massive massively you know,
41:00
Speaker 3: extractive tax on the vast majority of working class men,
41:05
Speaker 3: because that's what it is if you actually want to
41:07
Speaker 3: look at it empirically. Last thing I want to show
41:09
Speaker 3: you is that even the corrupt NFL thinks that all
41:12
Speaker 3: of this is bad. Let's put what is it E
41:14
Speaker 3: five up here on the screen. Even they came to
41:18
Speaker 3: the FEDS and they were like, yeah, guys, you need
41:20
Speaker 3: to do more about insider trading. And by the way,
41:22
Speaker 3: this came after there were multiple insider trades that were placed.
41:26
Speaker 3: I think it was by Arizona in the lead up
41:29
Speaker 3: to the draft, where a draft insider used his insider
41:32
Speaker 3: information literally to profit tens of thousands of dollars.
41:35
Speaker 1: Luckily he was caught.
41:36
Speaker 3: But even the NFL is going to the CFTC today
41:40
Speaker 3: and again the same NFL, which is totally in league
41:43
Speaker 3: with the sportsman gambling companies and saying that right now
41:46
Speaker 3: a lot of these prediction markets are not they do
41:49
Speaker 3: there are not enough rules that are in place in
41:51
Speaker 3: order to catch insider traders. Calci again would come to
41:54
Speaker 3: me and say that they hate insider traders and that.
41:57
Speaker 1: They go after them.
41:58
Speaker 3: But you know, you basically have have to self regulate
42:01
Speaker 3: and trust that they themselves would come out and guarantee
42:05
Speaker 3: that they're going to investigate. No private company obviously should
42:08
Speaker 3: be able to do that. So I just want to
42:09
Speaker 3: highlight that even the NFL, who is totally in league
42:12
Speaker 3: with sports gambling, despite you know, opposing it for decades,
42:15
Speaker 3: even they are going to the FEDS and saying you're
42:17
Speaker 3: not doing enough to actually punish any potential insider trading,
42:20
Speaker 3: which I do believe will explode massively because even if Calci,
42:25
Speaker 3: you know, worries about insider trades, polymarket is still quasi
42:28
Speaker 3: legal here in the United States, and plenty of insider
42:30
Speaker 3: trades get placed there all the time, as we saw
42:33
Speaker 3: with a lot of these accounts that have been happily
42:36
Speaker 3: able to predict what's going on in Iran.
42:38
Speaker 1: So here we are sager.
42:39
Speaker 2: Do you think with the NFL, are they just concerned
42:42
Speaker 2: that you get to a point where no one believes
42:44
Speaker 2: that there's anything real about the games and that will
42:47
Speaker 2: undermine the value of.
42:49
Speaker 3: The of the league. Yeah, of course, because they see
42:52
Speaker 3: it firsthand. I just talked about that draft example. You
42:54
Speaker 3: literally had a guy on the draft council bet that
42:57
Speaker 3: you know his team was going to draft the player
42:59
Speaker 3: that they were going to draft. I mean, he's an
43:01
Speaker 3: idiot because he did it so blatantly. But all he
43:04
Speaker 3: had to do was call his brother in law or
43:06
Speaker 3: somebody else to go place the trade on your polymarket.
43:08
Speaker 1: Nobody would have known.
43:09
Speaker 3: Any would have made himself a ton of money and
43:11
Speaker 3: they could have split the cash. So if he was
43:13
Speaker 3: just a little bit smarter about it, how would they
43:15
Speaker 3: have been able to catch it?
43:16
Speaker 1: And that's just talking about the draft. Let's talk about
43:18
Speaker 1: the refs.
43:18
Speaker 3: Let's talk about all of the other individual trade bets
43:22
Speaker 3: that they offer. And that's the thing too, It's not
43:23
Speaker 3: even just about player performance. It's about player movement. It's
43:27
Speaker 3: about I mean, you know Love Island, that show that
43:29
Speaker 3: was just broadcasting recently, Calshi was all over advertising trying
43:34
Speaker 3: to get women to join on Calshie so that they
43:37
Speaker 3: could gamble on who's going to win the Loveland finale.
43:40
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, you know what, a producer who's on the
43:43
Speaker 3: show in England or you know wherever can't see that
43:47
Speaker 3: market have access. Let's see to some of the voting
43:50
Speaker 3: data by ITV or Peacock or whoever runs the show
43:54
Speaker 3: and can't make a little bit of money on that
43:56
Speaker 3: or call their you know, cousin, brother or anything. Again,
43:59
Speaker 3: Calshie'll tell you that they'll catch that person. Do you
44:01
Speaker 3: really trust it or should we just not have a
44:03
Speaker 3: market on that? And why should anybody be able to
44:05
Speaker 3: gamble on the Love Island finale? It's complete insanity. We remember,
44:11
Speaker 3: I think it was either Golden Globes or oscars, which
44:13
Speaker 3: included the odds within it. Again, these are voting decisions
44:16
Speaker 3: that come down to like the Director's Guild of where
44:19
Speaker 3: there's not even that many people in which the decision
44:22
Speaker 3: is known to a small group who easily could be
44:24
Speaker 3: able to exploit their information. So at the very basis,
44:28
Speaker 3: it just comes down to these markets shouldn't exist at all,
44:31
Speaker 3: as the NFL is actually kind of hinting at inside
44:33
Speaker 3: of this, and that's as bad. And this is them
44:36
Speaker 3: already being okay with the individual player performance bets, just
44:39
Speaker 3: to give an example of how concerned they are about
44:42
Speaker 3: the FEDS. But it's coming, and that's one of the
44:43
Speaker 3: reasons I want to do this segment is that very
44:45
Speaker 3: soon the Supreme Court is going to side with Calcium,
44:48
Speaker 3: almost one hundred percent sure of it, and this will
44:50
Speaker 3: be absolutely nationwide legal and unless there is a complete
44:55
Speaker 3: change in the way that we regulate this at the
44:56
Speaker 3: federal level, that is your faith now as a nation.
45:00
Speaker 2: And to go back to that piece about how now
45:03
Speaker 2: this betting, gambling is the number one pastime surpass movie,
45:07
Speaker 2: our museum, concert, everything all together. I mean, just think
45:11
Speaker 2: about what that means for society. So instead of actually
45:14
Speaker 2: going to a sporting event where you're with people, which
45:17
Speaker 2: is a social behavior, you're staying home and placing a
45:20
Speaker 2: bed on your phone, instead of going to a concert,
45:23
Speaker 2: again a social activity. You are instead spending that money,
45:27
Speaker 2: like losing that money, just feeding it to you know,
45:29
Speaker 2: all of arcs who run these companies. So it's a
45:33
Speaker 2: profound shift, and it's happened under our noses, and they're
45:36
Speaker 2: trying to take away our ability to do, to have
45:39
Speaker 2: any say and whether this is what we want our
45:41
Speaker 2: society to be.
45:42
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, exactly, I think that's very well said.
45:44
Speaker 3: Money actually is a literal finite resource, and so if
45:47
Speaker 3: you put spend money on something else, then you're not
45:49
Speaker 3: going to have it for this, especially you know, when
45:51
Speaker 3: we're looking at these World Cup bets and you're getting
45:53
Speaker 3: a three percent win rate, which is so insane I
45:55
Speaker 3: can't believe that number is even legal, frankly, So yeah,
46:00
Speaker 3: there we go. Thank you everybody who's been subscribing and
46:02
Speaker 3: supporting the show. We appreciate it, and we will see
46:04
Speaker 3: you all tomorrow