Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 5 with Scooch and Simon Hunter

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NFL Week 5 with Scooch and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. Later on in the show, some
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: of you will love this, some of you will not.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Dear Revel who is not with us today, but Simon
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Hunter professional better will be. So we will run through
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the five picks that Darren and I will enter into
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the one point five million super Contest, in which we
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: are now twelve and eight after a difficult two and
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: three weekend. Still plus four games in the five that's
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: pretty good, plush. We're gonna have some Scooch Roulette coming
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: up soon because I'm joined by the bookmaker to the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: world from the Orleans representing all the BOYD Gaming books.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, Hello, my friend Chad. Has it gone Scooch?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: You and I are also doing a show that is
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: a live from twelve to one available on the Radio
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: dot Com app that is as much fun as any
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: show we've ever done. It feels like the exact thing
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that this podcast should be. Like if I could transplant
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: this podcast and just add a little bit more urgency
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: because like the games are about to kick off, like
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the excitement we get when you make a line change
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: today versus the excitement we get when you're making a
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: line change because you just got a bed for Uh,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: it's quite different. I'll tell you what it's. It's the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: fastest moving show I've ever done. We're on that show
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: for roughly an hour, and that hour goes by so
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: fast because we're I'm doing so many things. I'm actually working,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I'm watching the bets coming in. You've got an hour
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: to kick off, and we're breaking down every game, just
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: like we do here. But there's an hour to kick off.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, It goes by pretty quick. It
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: is the closest thing to Mad Money by Jim Kramer
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: on CNBC that there is in the betting space. Everybody
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: is trying to do betting shows. This is the one
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: that actually has pace and interest and picks and information.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: It's everything you could want to accept. Maybe brilliant personalities, true,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: just saying. I'm just saying, just saying, scot who what
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: are you gonna say? Listen, I'm saying, we're coming off
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: a great week. I know because the Kansas City Chiefs
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: didn't come through. The New England Patriots didn't come through
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams, didn't come through the Indianapolis Colts
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: didn't come through. Every team that you needed in your
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: parlay basically got knocked out. You guys are building buildings
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: out there this week. Yeah, this was probably the biggest weekend,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the biggest Sunday I've seen in years. I mean, I'd
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: have to go back a couple of a couple of
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: years and see when we've had a better Sunday. But
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: you can't ask for much more. I guess. I guess
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: if Kansas City had lost the game straight up against Detroit,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: it might have been a little bit better. But I
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: can't see how it could have gotten much better. And
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I've often talked about it's a combination of games that
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: we need. We need the right mix of straight back
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: games and the right mix of parlay games. Uh. You know,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: the the Chargers in the Dolphin game. Even though there
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: was a lot of parlay money on the Chargers, there
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: was a lot of straight bet money on the Dolphins.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So I didn't mind losing that big parlay game because
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: we want a bunch in the straight bets, And we
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: killed enough of the other parlays that it didn't matter.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So it was just the right combination. We killed a
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: lot of teasers, money lines, Uh, I'd like to clone
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: that Sunday and use it again a couple more times
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: this year. Never gonna happen, now, you know. It's like
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: when uh the for for the first preseason game of
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the year, I forgot who it was. Somebody beat somebody
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: and I want on like, you know, a last second
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: tip ball in the end zone. And that was basically
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: me emptying the karma bank in week one of the preseason.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: You've em the karma bank, my friend. Yep. Uh, Let's
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: kick off. Let's kick off week five, starting with a
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: came out the other day and basically said, these games
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: are crap. I hate playing them. They're unfair. Uh, here's
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: what's interesting to me. Seattle after beating up in Arizona
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: and l A after getting beat up by the Bucks, which,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: by the way, one of us had the Bucks and
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Scoot row Let the other did not. Um, we'll get
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to that later in the show when we make our
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: scoochrou Let picks. Uh, Seattle is now a one point favorite.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I will tell you the look aheadline on this. We'll
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Seattle plus two. You want to know how I know
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: you want to know how I remember that because you
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: bet it by accident. As you know I am. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: am betting in theory, betting in theory every single NFL
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: game this year with my friend Matt, who I've been
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: doing the pickskin pick them contests for years against, and
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I beat him so often. I'm just like, dude, let's
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: just bet these games together this year. We'll have a
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: better time than it'll save me money. I'm buying you
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: second place trophies. And uh, I accidentally like told Matt
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to bet Seattle plus two when I was looking at
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: the schedule, and um, I didn't realize that. Like, we
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: had gone through week four into week five, so we
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: had a Seattle plus two bet as a home dog,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: even though the Seattle Seahawks are now one point favorites
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: over the Rams. Yeah, one and a half. So we
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: saw a lot of money right out of the gate
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: on this one. We opened the game of pick on
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: and and look, I mean the Rams, even at three
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: and one, they're not garnering any any attention from the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: public anymore, the general public. I mean they've been gradually
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: getting off them each each game, and uh, this last weekend,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: it it seemed like, uh uh, a lot of people
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: were expecting the Bucks to cover. I don't think that
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: many people were expecting the Bucks to win straight up,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: but uh, there's a lot of points for the for
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the Rams to be laying, and uh, I think after
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: that game, the public is going to kind of take
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a time out on betting on the Rams. So, I
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: mean the ticket account is heavy, slightly heavier on the
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks with us, but it's the big money
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: that drove this money up to one and a half
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: from pick them. So, like you said, to look aheadline
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: probably would have been the Rams a slight favorite. But
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: after a few games are just you know, I mean,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: they barely covered against the uh the Browns. That was
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: that was a game where they covered. But I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: the people that bet on them were kind of lucky
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to get out alive in that one. Yeah, it's kind
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: of stunning, right, like they have just completely fallen off
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: a cliff and look some of us I remember on
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the podcast last week, not that I want to shoot
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: my own horn, but I do remember saying I do
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: remember saying the run on the Rams is over. I
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: don't care what line you said for the Bucks. I
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: am betting the Bucks, and uh, I did just that.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I made them sort of my scruture let pick um,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and I was right. And now everyone's caught up and
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: there's been a major adjustment. But have you done a
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: huge adjustment on the Rams overall rating or are you
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: just sort of trying to read the market here? No? No,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: just trying to read the market. We haven't really adjusted them.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: And I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams rebounded and
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: win that and win this one. I mean, Seattle really
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: hasn't impressed either. I mean, nobody in the NFC to
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: be on us with it is just as dominant as
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: you see, kind of like the Patriots and the Chiefs
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: in the a f C. You know, there was a
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: couple of teams that we thought, uh would would kind
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: of shine and be that dominant NFC team, but uh,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: you're we're seeing a lot of vulnerabilities. You know, for
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: for a while it was the Packers of the Vikings,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: and then both of them showed of vulnerabilities, and then
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: it was the Rams and the Cowboys, and then you know,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys lose, and so it's it's it's kind of
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: up for grabs and this both teams coming into this
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: one at three and one. That's why we kind of
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: started it at a pick them. We did it. We
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: did adjust a little bit, just based off of the
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: last couple of weekends. But I wouldn't be surprised if
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: the Rams rebounded this one. Yeah, I wouldn't either. Actually,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I'm really glad I got the Seahawks at two and
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a half. Um. But then again, like the Rams, is
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a dog is an interesting play? I mean right now,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: it's not enough of a dog to make a difference. Um.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: But all right, I think we know how we feel
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: about that one. Hold on, I just lost my next game.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Chicago visiting the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Oakland Raiders, basically actually playing that they're playing this one.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: They're playing London. That's right, that's right. It's a weird game,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: then it is. How do you? How do you? How
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: do you set the line for those games? Well, it's
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: funny because we after the Bears, after the Bears win
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: against the Vikings, you would have thought that everybody would
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: have just been all over this Bears team, and it
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: wasn't the case. We opened the Bears five and a
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: half and the first first couple of bets out of
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: the gate were the Raiders. Uh, so we're pretty heavy
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: on the Raiders in straight bets, and and to be honest,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: even in the parlay count in the ticket count, that's
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: not too lopsided either. So surprising a little bit that
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: even in the bears big win against the Vikings, which
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: surprised me. I think I had the Viking on on
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: a as a take in another uh show too. And
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: but yet the public just doesn't like this Chicago offense.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, they know that the defense can can stiffen
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: up and and shut some teams down, but uh, they're
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: they're just not enamored with the with the offense. Of course,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the quarterback went out, Strobisky went out too, so uh
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: you know that, and Chicago still won with the backup Daniels.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So but in this one, I actually I think the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Raiders are a live dog here. They're they're traveling to London.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I think we both put at the Raiders last week
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: against the Colts, saying that the adjustment on on the
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Colts was probably a little too much based on three
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: wins that were against really not great teams. Uh, and
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: we weren't really surprised that the Raiders were able to
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: uh win the game straight up and especially cover getting
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: getting seven points. Uh So I think the Raiders can
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: move the ball against this Bears team. Um, I could
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: understand the sharp move. I'm just a little puzzled by
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: why the public hasn't weighted yet, well, because they know
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the Bears are playing at backup quarterback and they're not
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a very impressive team. Yeah, but it's not, No, it's not.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: But I mean, just to be against the Raiders, I
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: guess you know just one week, what a difference just
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: one week makes Because they've been against the Raiders every
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: week and then finally the Raiders win one is suddenly
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be betting the Raiders. Wow, this totally
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Those like the Raiders go on
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the road against a Cults team that was starting to
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: get a ton of love. They whip them pretty badly.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: The Bears have another struggle at home, even with the
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback. Like, there's no way someone's going to commend
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: them Bears, Like in this game, all of the public
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: sentiment to me would end up being on the Raiders,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: And like we're not seeing that from money perspective yet,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: but it wouldn't surprise me as the week goes on. Yeah,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: it should be a low scoring game. It's one of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the lower totals on the board. Uh. The fact that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: they're planning in London adds a little flavor to it,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: but just uh not, it won't be. It won't be
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: one of the more heavily back games. Public is whacky.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is visiting Tennessee. Buffalo played really well, Like these
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: defenses are just that both of those defenses, the Patriots
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: and the Bills are just really good. Like wow, the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: defensive backs like that was just a torture fest in
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: being able to get the ball down the field. Uh.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is the three point favorites. So you're basically saying
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: these teams are even on a neutral field. Um, anyone
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: bett in any which way right now? Um no, you
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: know we've had it up and down, the game off
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the board, then back on the board. You know, still
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: waiting on Josh Allen, who left that game with a concussion.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Uh so so most of that game. Uh, it was
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: kind of an impressive performance actually with without without Josh
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Allen in the game, and um, you know they were
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: down thirteen nothing in the fourth quarter. The Bills were
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: and uh they held New England's only three points in
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the next three quarters and uh and made made a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: game of it. Uh you know the Patriots were my
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: scoots were let pick and uh you know, thirteen thirteen nothing.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I thought we had that one in the bag. But uh,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: they ended up only winning by six and we were
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: laying We're laying seven in that one. So tough one
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: for the Scooch were let game hurt a little bit.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know which way to go with this game.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, especially with through the Josh Allen situation. Uh,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Tennessee being incredibly up and down, seeming to get like
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: wins against teams that we thought we're going to be
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: better than they were. I guess it's lined right. I
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: probably would stay away from this game. Yeah, I think
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I lean Tennessee only because they're they're at home, Bills
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: are banged up. Uh, Tennessee has shown that they can play.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: They are up and down. When they lay an egg,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: they lay a big egg. But when Mariota's is clicking,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I mean this this team can put up a lot
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of points. Um. So you know we saw him dude
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: against against the Browns and uh, and you know against Atlanta.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: They held Atlanta at the ten points last week too,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: So I would favor Tennessee. I think three points is
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: probably the right number. But I think if I had
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: to play it, i'd played Tennessee. Houston really poor performance
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the other day against Carolina. I thought they would just
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: come out and dominate that game. Kyle Allen again played
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: incredibly well, made some clutch plays. They got Atlanta visiting
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Houston this weekend. Boy, this team is just this team
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: has falling apart. I don't know how you bet. I
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean it's a dead number. I don't
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: know how you bet against the Texans in this game. Yeah,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: you know, I like the Texans again. Uh last week
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: and we saw that number moved from four to six
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: back down to five. That number was all over the place.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: We thought. Uh. I was a little surprised at the
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: performance of the Texas. I wouldn't expect back to back
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: bad performances at home here. I tried to open tech
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the Texans a little high, but they haven't done anything
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: with it. With it the sharp guys, Uh, they haven't
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: bet anything on this game. And uh, we may have
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to go to five five and a half to see
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: if we can get a little action on the Falcons.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: It's another game where I'm going to favor the Texas
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: again and see if we can get a little Falcons action. Uh,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: like you said that the Falcons Uh after the first
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: couple of games of the year. Just nobody's betting on
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: this team. Yeah, they're the team that we always thought
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: they would be, Like every year when they start off
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: five and oh, but it turns out they beat five
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: really bad teams and you didn't know they'd beat five
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: bad teams until week thirteen. Now they're not even getting
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the five bad teams. Yeah, you've always faded this team,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: do I always have? Uh? Really interesting game. Baltimore is
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a road favorite. I don't know what you have met
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: right now. Baltimore is a road favorite. Uh at Pittsburgh.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Baltimore road favorite at Pittsburgh. Yeah, we've got him at
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half. And it's just like just a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: lot of money on this game just right out of
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the gate. You know. We um we we waited till
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the Monday night game was over before posting the line,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: and we hung the Ravens minus four right out of
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the gate. We took some money on the on the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Steelers at UH plus four, we went to three and
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: a half. We took some more money at plus three
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and a half, UM, but then we somebody came right
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: back and laid the three and a half. So we're
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: getting good two way at three and a half of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: just a lively game and just a lot of action
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: on this one. Um. You know, Baltimore uh taken. Looking
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: at last week's game, a lot of people expected Baltimore
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to just roll over Cleveland, having looked so good in
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the first few games out of the uh of the
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: of the year out of the gate. I thought the
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: defense was finally stepping up, and then uh, they just
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they just get annihilated. So, UM, I guess it creates
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: it creates just a little doubt in the better's mind.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: So uh prior to prior to last night's game, I
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: think we would we would have gotten just all Baltimore action.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: But I think, uh, you know, Pittsburgh at least played
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: a played a decent game, and uh played well enough
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: to give a little confidence to a lot of the
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: public betters. Yeah, that was an interesting game last night. Uh,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Steelers finally look good. But you never know, like against Cincinnati.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati continues to be one of those teams every other week,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: every other week, like and we'll get to them in
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: a second because they're playing in Arizona, and that's that's
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: coming up on my list. Uh, New England at Washington.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Oh Jesus Scooch. What nobody had on this? I'm I'm
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: seeing fifteen and a half. Yeah, we're up fifteen fifteen, um,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: but no significant that. It's just a lot of little
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: vets um. The thicket account is, you know, eight to
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: one Patriots the Redskins. It's another game. I feel like
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: this is kind of deja vu the last three weeks
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: with uh, you know, fifteen sixteen points spreads on the road.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: You know, uh, you know every week we're we we've
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: got a sixteen point road favorite. I can't remember a
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: season when when we've had like, uh, three weeks in
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a row. It's just incredible. You know, last week the
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Chargers end up covering the sixteen against the against the Dolphins. Uh.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I will say though that the one thing that is
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: saving us, at least in the parley department, is the
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Patriots have not covered the last two weeks, so as
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: dominant as they are. You know, they're laying these huge numbers.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: And you know, we got really lucky with the Jets
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: cover against the Patriots because the Jets offense could not
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: move the ball, and but the Jets defense kept him
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: in in that game. And then last week, the Bill's
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: defense kept him in that game and covered. So two
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: weeks in a row where the Patriots haven't gotten to cover. Um,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: you know, the normal handicapper and me would say take
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the home dog plus fift team, you know, Washington and home.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: But these are these are strange times, and the Patriots
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: of you know, the Phi logic, and it just seems
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: like I always on the wrong side of the Patriots.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I don't think we've ever one been on the right
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: side of the Patriots Super Bowl going back to two
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: thousand two in the Rams and and even and even
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: in these games, we're just always on the wrong side
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: of the Patriots. Yeah, they are so freaking hard. Right
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Like last week, I finally gave in. I finally just
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: decided I'm better the Patriots. Like you win, uncle, I'm
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: gonna better the Patriots. And of course last week they
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: drop kick me by not covering by a point with
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: so many opportunities to cover that game, right, Absolutely, they
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: should have covered that game. I mean, I'm happy they
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: didn't from the bookmaker's point of view, but you know,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: they seemed like they could have covered that game easy. Uh. Meanwhile,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: they're going against there on the road, going against I'm
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: assuming Dwayne Dwyne Haskins is starting. Has that been announced? Uh,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: hasn't been announced, but that's our assumption. Okay, So on
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: the road against the quarterback who looked befuddled against the Giants,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: who looked like he was not getting any help from
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: his team or his coaches, and now he's supposed to
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: play against the defense that has given up one touchdown
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: that was a that was a fourth down sneak. Yeah.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Oh man, I'm gonna have to bet the Patriots is
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: fifteen and a half point favorites on their road. Yeah.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting for them to do something that nobody's tipped
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: their hand on this one. Um, I guess it wouldn't
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: hurt for me to go up to fifteen and a half.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna try it. Line ches fifteen and a half.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: There we go, done, Let's see what happens. Let's see
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: what happens while we're on the show. Uh Uh. The
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Carolina Panthers, Carolina minus three, minus
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half, starting to show a little life
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: the Panthers. The peel always the Cam Newton change has
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: been helpful. It's probably not what they were thinking. They
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: wouldn't hope for it, but Kyle Allen has brought some
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: lights to that team. That defense is just fierce. That
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: defense Yep, now they really are. And uh, you know,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: as long as Kyle Allen could continue being efficient, they
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: can rely on the defense. You know. That's like I said,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the big win against Houston last week. We did have
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: them rated pretty high going into the season, and then
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: after a couple of losses, Uh, we kind of downgraded
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: them a little bit. So we might be getting them
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: back up to where they were to be beginning of
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the season. And but of course Jacksonville has been impressive
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: to its going. Gardner Minshew just continues, uh to to
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: you know, keep this team always in the game and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: lead fourth quarter comeback x and uh, there's another impressive
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: performance last week and getting to win. Um. So I'll
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: tell you that whole a f C South, it's just
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I think every team is two and two and and
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: they just play every game down to the wire. There
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: are a lot of just low scoring games, and and
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: they all seem they all seem to come down to
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: just the last few minutes of the game. You look
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: at the Colts games, the Jaguar games. I guess the
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Titans are the only ones that they neither get blown
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: out or blow the feet the other team out. But
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I would expect another close game in this one. We
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: have a low total at forty one, so uh, I
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: would expect another low scoring game, defensive game, and uh
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I think three and a half's the right number. We're
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: not getting a whole lot of action on either side.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: We've got a little bit of sharp money on the Jaguars,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: but not enough to make us move it to three,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: at least not yet. But I think if it went
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: in one direction, it would probably go towards three. Though.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: This next game is so so bad. The Arizona Cardinals
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. I don't know how you handicapped
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't know how you make a line
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: for this game. The Bengals are coming off of a
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: bad loss, so I guess this is the week where
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: they look good there at home. I guess a team
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: that might have fooled us into thinking they were at
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: least halfway decent offensively because what they did in the
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: first two weeks, but they've been dreadful the past two weeks.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I just talked myself into the Bengals. Oh no, Well,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: if it makes you feel any better, we did open
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: them up, you know, a little high. We opened them
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: up that UH four and the couple first bet out
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: of the gate Sunday night, we're on the Cardinals. They
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: took four, they took three and a half. We we
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: then went to uh minus three and a half even money,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: so which means we're pretty close to go into three.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, you've got two bad teams. Neither one
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: of these teams even has a win yet. At least
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Arizona has a tie in that first game against Detroit
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: to open the season. But these just two bad teams. Uh, Arizona,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: they seem like they showed a lot of life, and
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: we thought that this team was getting better each week
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: and uh that that performance against the Ravens just really
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: stood out. But maybe it just took too much out
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: of him going into the next game because they didn't
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: show any life last Sunday, so it would be tough
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: to bet on Cleveland. But we have to make them
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: the favorites at home. And I guess I can understand
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: that the first couple of bets on the Cardinals, you
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: mean Cincinnati be tough to bet on Cincinnati. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I mean it's tough to bet on Cleveland too, But
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: but in this case, I don't know, man, I feel
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: like it's a square play to bet on the home
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: favorite in this spot as a default. Maybe you're right.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I think they got to give this a little bit
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: more of an examination, and maybe I do. I don't
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: like it at three. I wanted I gotta get that hook.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I were to play it, I think
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: there's probably more value on Arizona than than Cincinnati. Uh.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: This Cincinnati team, I had him the one week against
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: UM when they were a home favorite. Uh, they're laying
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: one against the forty Niners and they just got blown out.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: But that was coming off of a week where they
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: lose to Seattle, So so they can hang with a
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: good team. And you know, they think probably should have
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: won that game if it wasn't for a turnover in
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: the red zone. Uh, so, so how do you explain
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: the team that you know probably should have beaten Seattle
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: and then gets blown out by the by the Niners,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't doesn't even come close to the with the Steelers. Um,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna get it, it's a tough one. I
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: it would be tough to lay the points with Cincinnati.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: If I had to bet it, I'd probably bet Arizona
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Tampa Day. This is a right game, Tampa Bay at
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: New Orleans, both teams coming up coming off of big,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: big wins like this has let down spot written all
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: over it, except you got both teams that are like
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: potentially in the letdown spot. If I'm getting half a point.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: If I'm getting half a point on the Bucks, which
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: the line is at three and a half, I'm taking
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Famous Jamis. Yeah. So, um, this was probably the most
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: lopsided that game just from the wise guy perspective. We've
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: got more money on the Bucks, uh than I do
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: at this point in the week on any other one
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: single team we opened. We opened the game five, which
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: was probably very similar to what the line would have
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: been before Sunday's games, meaning we didn't adjust too much
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: off of the Saints win. We didn't adjust too much
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: off of the Bucks win. We took the Bucks Rams
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: game more as a down grade on the Rams more
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: than an upgrade on the Bucks. I think a lot
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: of people expected the Bucks to cover in that one.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Uh So, I guess we kept with what the line
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: would have been, which was five. So the value of
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: at least from the sharp guy's perspective, was what was
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. They took five, they took four and
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: a half, they took four. We're down the three and
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: a half on the game, and they're taken three and
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: a half too, So line is probably gonna settle at three.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: At three, I think I have to like the Saints. Yeah,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I agree, I said what I say in the beginning,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: I said, very wise guy said anything you said, remove
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the half a point. If I get the hook, get
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: to get the hook. It's called the hook and familiar
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: all these all these betting terms. See, I gotta get
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: familiar with her. Why don't I send you a glossary
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: New York Jets traveling on the road to Philadelphi Eagles.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: The Philadelphia Eagles are basically two touchdown favorites in this game.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Uh uh, I can totally see why absolutely. Um. And
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: look if the Eagles are another team that were ranked
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: very highly coming into the season, and we've been steadily
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: uh downgrading them. Um, you know at some point, uh,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: you can't, you can't downgrade them anymore, and there has
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: to be a correction and uh and then as soon
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: as you see, you know, a decent performance from then
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: you take that into account. And so you look at
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: that Thursday night game against the against the Packers, Um,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: you know, impressive performance. And this this team can play
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: the way we thought they could play at the beginning
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: of the year. So going up against the Jets team
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: that basically has no quarterback, can't move the ball, or
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: just absolutely struggling on offense. Uh yeah, fourteen, I think
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: I think I think we'll probably uh see that line
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: go up. As a matter of fact, I think you
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: will see that line go up. Everything. I'm looking at
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: betting scentages, money percentages, uh that can be found in
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app. The free Action Network app downloaded
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: nearly nine thousand ratings on this app and it's a
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: five star app. That is not easy, my friends, nine
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: thousand ratings. I think you got a bad line in
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: this next game, Minnesota Vikings visiting the New York Giants.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: This Giant's team, the Vikings are bad like on offense. Look,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I was all over the Vikings last week. I really
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: thought they were like on the upswing. But it turns
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: out Kirk Cousins. Uh, some people have said this not
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: a very good quarterback. Um, Daniel Jones might be a
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: good quarterback. And I think you're getting, like the Giants
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: in a good spot here, second week in row at home.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: That line is already pretty big. Uh. It feels like
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: you didn't adjust it. Um, I think making a mistake.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: You're making a mistake. Yeah, So yeah, we you know,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: we we really like the Vikings last week, and we
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: opened them up a three point favorite against the Bears
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: and that line went down to one. So we probably
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: should have adjusted some off of that. We're not really
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: going to adjust the Giants even though that you know,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: they played really well. Still still the jury is not out.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I mean we're still waiting on on Danny Danny Dimes,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: and I mean we we just I mean, he played well,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: but I think the Vikings. I can't just look at
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: one one bad performance and just and just downgrade them.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna stick with the original number, they are
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: taking the Giants at plus five the ticket count, that
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: was pretty even, and I think the public will still
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: support the Vikings slightly more than the Giants. But you're
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: probably right in that the values on the Giants at home.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: But I think I'm okay with the number. I don't
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: think I don't think we made a mistake on it. Um.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: You know, if if if they come in on the
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Giants pretty heavy by by game time and we close
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: it at three and we lose the game, then you'll
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: see a big adjustment, then you also know you made
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: a mistake. Then I will yeah, on the way after
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the fact. But you said last week, you know, I
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: mentioned this last week, and I said, I didn't feel
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: good about the way that we moved a lot of
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: the lines and and some but sometimes it works out
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: in your favor. And then even when you do make mistakes,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: sometimes you win those games. It works in your favor
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: sometimes and then vice versa. You can do everything right,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: everything right, and feel really good and just have your
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: worst Sunday ever, So it goes both ways. Denver Broncos
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: visiting the Los Angeles Chargers. Charges are six and a
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: half point favorites. What are you seeing? Uh, not a
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: whole lot on this one. Uh. Boy, you know, I
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: don't think Uh, I don't think the public really knows
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: what to do in this one. It's one of the
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: leaf bet games on the board. Uh. We're a little
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: heavy and parlays and everything on the Chargers at minus
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: six and a half. But almost no straight bets on
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: either side of this game, not from the wise guys,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: not from public. Um. This actually might be a corner
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: TV game. Uh. Although there's only only a couple of
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: there's only about three afternoon games, so they gotta they
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: gotta bet on something, and I have no doubt they will.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Like by the time this game kicks off, there will
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: be all those people who were losing the Cardinals Bengels
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: game will be chasing on the Chargers in the Broncos. Yeah,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: so I would think that they're gonna probably bet the Chargers. Um,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: even though they're not a real popular team to bet on.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I personally think that the Broncos are probably some value here.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, they look at every game. They they've lost
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: every game almost the same way. Uh, they're all in four,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: but they could have easily have won two or three
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: of those games there down the stretch came down to
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: like the last play of the game in all those
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville last week against the Bears, uh, the only
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the Raiders and the you know, the first week, I mean,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: every one of those games was closed. So now you're
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: giving them six and a half. I think there's probably
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: a little value there. Here's a big marquee game, the
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Cows a little
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: more than a field goal favorite three and a half. Ah,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: such an interesting game. I think that. Look, the Cowboys
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: lost in prime time. The Packers lost in prime time.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys played a much better team than
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: the Packers did, and their loss can be excused much
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: more easily than the Packers lost. I think so. In
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the games that I've seen, the Cowboys have been a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: much more complete team on the offensive side, the defensive side. Um,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: they've been much more impressive in all those games. The Packers,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: even in their wins. Even in some of those wins
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: they got out of the gate early and then their
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: offense struggled for most of the second half. There was
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: something either they're the opposing coaches or making adjustments that
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: that the Packers just weren't able to overcome. But they
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: made a lot of games close that probably shouldn't have
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: been close. And then of course you look back and
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: you mentioned uh playing worst teams. And if you think
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: that the Vikings aren't as good as as uh, you
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: know they were supposed to be, you look at the
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Packers games. They played the Bears, they played the Vikings,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: and they played the Eagles, teams that you probably thought
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: were a little better than they were. Looking back on it,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: maybe not as good. Um So, having said we opened
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: the game the Cowboys four, we did get a couple
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of big bets on the Packers from some sharp guys.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: We went down to three and a half. At three
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: and a half, we're getting great. Two way, Uh, probably
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit heavier on the Packers in terms of
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: number of tickets on the game at Parlay's slightly heavy
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: on the Packers, but really good two ways. Don't forget
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: download the free action network Gap. You'll get the total
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: number of bets being made. You'll get the money percentages
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: on each side, You'll get the ticket percentage on each side.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: It's super exciting. It gives you context everything scooches talking
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: about Uh, I'm gonna like the pack. I'm gonna like
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys in that game that I like the Cowboys
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: if it gets down to three, That's what I'm saying. Uh,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Indie visiting Kansas City on a Sunday night game clearly
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: the game where NBC thought it was getting Andrew Luck
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes, not Jacobi Broussette and Patrick Mahomes. Uh So,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, this game is ten and a half,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: not like the three it probably would have been if
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: Andrew Luck was saying, are you seeing any action on
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: this game yet? Yeah, all chiefs and and this one,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I will admit, I think we did make a mistake,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: don we We opened this game nine and a half,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: and right out of the gate they laid nine and
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a half. They laid ten. And anytime the sharp guys
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: and the public are both on the same side and
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: the line moves more than a point, uh yeah, we've
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: clearly made a mistake. Because we typically like to put
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: ourselves in a position where we open it high enough
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: where at least the sharp guys will see value on
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the dog, knowing that the public is going to lay
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the favorite no matter what. So in this case we
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: didn't go high enough. Uh, eleven points. Actually I just
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: moved it by the way I went. I went from
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: ten and a half to eleven. As I'm seeing all
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: the best building up, it's just all one way in
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: this one and this Chief's game, this Chiefs team just
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: scares me every week. You know it's gonna and the
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: fact that it's the the late game on Sunday night,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: you know you have a bad parlay morning. Everything's gonna
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: be riding on this one. You uh, you said you
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: went from ten to eleven, ten and a half to eleven.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: You turned it up to eleven. I did because it
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: can go to eleven. Why does it have to stop
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: at ten or even ten and a half when it
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: can go to eleven? Well, it just did. Do you
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about? No, do you know what
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: movie I'm talking about? Spinal Tiger Swingers. Oh yeah, Jesus Christ,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Oh Scooch. You're the lead singer in the band. How
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: do you not recognize Turn It Up to eleven as
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: one of the most classic lines and one of the
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: best movies that was ever made. I know, there's no
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: there's no excuse for that. I think you and your
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: bride tonight in your mansion in Las Vegas. Need to
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: uh open a bottle of wine and going your screening
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: room and watch spinal Tap. I'll do that absolutely, will
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: you really? Yeah? Courtyard way, we have a movie night
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: in the courtyard. You know, we have a big screen
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: projector and it's weather's term beautiful now, so we'll make
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: it a movie night. I don't like you you know
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: what else? You know? You know what ESPN doesn't like.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: ESPN doesn't like having Cleveland and San Francisco is a
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Monday night game following up the Bengals in the Steelers. Yeah,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: my god, what happened to Monday night football? People are
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: starting to find other things to do on Monday nights. Well,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, Like, you know what's really interesting, um
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: not to get inside baseball, but at the Action Network,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: you know, we'll have massive Saturdays and Sundays and it
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: feels almost like people are burned out on Monday and
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: like on Thursday night we at a significant more number,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: that significantly high amount of traffic and subs and subscriptions
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: for our content than we do on Mondays. Yeah, you know,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I gotta be honest. I could sympathize with the players
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: and how the Thursday night game just kind of disrupts
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: all the rhythms you get into as a player. But
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: as a fan, I enjoyed the Thursday night games much
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: more than the Monday night games. To me, it's like
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the the opening the building up to the weekend, and
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: it's the thing that kicks off football weekend and you
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: have college and then you have pros on Sunday. And
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: I agree, by Sunday night, I know I'm burnt out
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: and it's almost to the point, oh Monday, it's all
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: like an afterthought. Yeah, I I actually I agree with you.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: I love the Thursday night game. I don't care how
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: bad it is. I'm just so excited to see the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: football again. I love the Sunday night game, like I
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: like Sunday night game. To me is like ah, like
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: that's when sort of you're easy for me. It's I'm
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: easing out of a work zone and once the game
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: kicks off and sort of all the work has been done.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Like I'm kidding myself, like I'm doing any of the work. Like,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: but like the most certainly are you have to watching
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: those games? You're working those games? Yeah, Like the mental
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: it doesn't turn out the way it does right, the
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: mental like the the mental anxiety of the games, like
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: getting the Sunday night, like the kids are starting to chill,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: the garbage is put out, like I just know it's
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, and like Monday, I'm not
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: even excited for these games. Yeah, yeah, no, it's And
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: then especially when you have the you know, the Browns
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: and the forty Niners, that just adds to it and
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: makes it hard to get to have interest. So, um,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: you know, we we went a little a little high
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: on on the three and three and a half, and
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: they no action on it whatsoever. I think accounts dead
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: even on it. Um. I would expect everyone to come
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: in on the Niners thinking that, you know, they had
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the week off, and even though the Browns played pretty
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: well this past week, uh, I don't think they're quite
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: believers in them yet to go on the road and
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: beat the Niners. And Niners have been a team that
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the public has been riding these last few weeks going
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: into their bye week, so we expect that to continue.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Guess what time it is? Scoot Roulette, Scoot Roulette. Here's
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the music. I'm going to paraphrase another movie. Let's see
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: if you can get it. Are you ready? Okay, Okay,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: go ahead. I picked the wrong week to win Scooch
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Roulette Airplane. Yeah yeah, Well let's see. Let's see what
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: other forty year old movies we can reference to today.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: But like there's there's there's no like games that jump
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: off the board to me. None. For me, this would
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: be this is a hard one or a real tough one.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: You know I'm gonna do. I'm gonna defer to you
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: my my choice, and winning is deferring to you. Okay,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Houston Texas again. They burned me
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: last week, but I'm going with them against the Falcons
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the minus four and a half. I gotta tell you
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I was going to choose them too. Instead, I'm called
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Carolina minus three and a half. Yeah that's that's not
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: bad either. Yeah, that's what I'm gonna do. Alright, you're
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: on the Jackson Vote, You're on the Houston Texans, I'm
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: on the Jacksonville. I'm on the Carolina Panthers. Up next.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Since Danni Ravella is not joining me this week, uh,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter professional better, he and I are gonna have
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: to break down which games we are choosing for the
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Westgate Super Contest. Scooci, thanks for coming to the podcast, Buddy.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Thanks Chad touch Later all right, as promised, Professional Better,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is on the phone. He's gonna take me
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: on a journey through picking the five picks that we
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: need to make to go undefeated in the Westgate Super Contest.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Here we go, and now a word from a wise
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: guy with Simon Hunter. Simon Hunter, how you doing, buddy?
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: How you doing? Chat man? Well, listen, we had a
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: tough week last week. We went two and three in
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: the Super Contest. We're now twelve and eight. Team Action.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: That's Darren and I. Darren is not with us today,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: and it is not because he was insistent that we
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: choose the Chiefs in the Patriots last week. Um, we
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: chose them. We chose the Texans. We went owing three
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: in the early games. We were all sweating out a
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: little bit. We had the Buccaneers a plus nine and
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: a half, which was one of my choices, and we
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: had the Saints plus two and a half, which you
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: were all over like, convinced us to choose the Saints,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: which I really appreciate because it saved us from going
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: one in four. Yeah, that was I think I might
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: have like five or six a year like that, where
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: it's kind of not one of those games where you
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: pick the NFL's fixed, but it's one of those where
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: I knew as soon as I saw the number and
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: made the bet that it was like, there's always a
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: chance we're gonna lose a bet, but I felt the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: odds of losing that. But we're very low comparative the
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: other games that we played. I mean, I had that
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: line at three with the Saints minus three, so like
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: I saw a lot of value there. So it's one
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: of those where I kept taking the line and kept
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: taking the money line. But it was at halftime, I
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: think they were up nine to three and the rest
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: were just calling everything for the Saints. So it's definitely
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: an easy no swept the end of the night compared
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: to the rest of our day. That was a rough day.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: That was a rough day. Like as a professional better
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: you're some one who I imagine is always going to
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: play the underdogs or at least have models that find
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: value in the underdogs. And so this past weekend, like
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: and this season, really you've probably been nailing it. Yeah. Actually,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you a real easy trick. A guy told
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: me right when I started out in the business, was
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: that when you take a dog, say a unit bed
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: for use ten dollars, the way I like to do
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: would like to put three units on the number. So
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: like we took the Buccaneers, so I took that plus
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: nine plus ten, and then I put one unit on
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: the money line. So that's like ten bucks to win
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: thirty five dollars. So it sounds stupid, but if you
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: do that over the long term, you make a way
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: bigger profit than if you're just betting just the number,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the plus nine and a half and not taking the
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: money on. You should always try to put at least
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: half the unit to a unit on the money line
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: if you really really like an underdog. But is there
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: a threshold that that is an incredible That might be
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: the smartest thing that's ever been said on this podcast
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: and ten years of doing it, which is listen, it's
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: why you're here. I'm sorry it took a solo and
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: to find you. I'm sorry everybody else I took a solo. Funny,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: but um, definitely they're like, um, there's always an example
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: to it. Like if I'm just playing a number, like
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: like you said last week, if anyone's coming out there
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: and saying they played all ten underdogs, um, that's not
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: a person that's winning every week because that's not a
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: good system. You shouldn't every week plan every underdog. Um.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: So I didn't do good, but I merely did way
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: better because I'm taking these underdogs. Um. And then I'm
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: hitting the money line as well. So you know, if
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I have a negative day to say I lose whatever,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I go seven for nine. If I hit the Saints
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: money line, the Bucks money line, I'm up on the day.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: So it's it's definitely one of those things as a shark,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: it's like an easy little trick that even when you're
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: having a down day you're not reading everything right, you're
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: still gonna come out of the profit if you are
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: hitting on these dogs money long think this year has
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: been really big for these road dogs. I think it's
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: about the hit back to the memes. Well it may
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: and like what what you just described that was so interesting,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: So at the Action Network and everyone should go download
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: the app. Um, we've got some really smart baseball and
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: hockey betters. And Mike Leeboff who runs our hockey and
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: baseball coverage, Sons Rillo, who writes about hockey and baseball.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: You know, they bet so many underdogs. They bet so many,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: um like money line underdogs in those sports. You know,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Mike Leeboff, the first bet he made of the hockey
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: season Ottawa plus two thirty seven. And so you can
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: follow up, you can follow everything he does in the
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: app and you'll see, like for hockey, he's got a
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: losing record overall, but his units are so high because
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: he's winning with big underdogs every night. I mean people
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: do the same with baseball. Like I know, plenty of
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: really really smart, sharp guys. At the end of the year,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be a losing record, they might be up
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: fifty to sixty units on taking these you know, these
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Orioles plus three d these crazy dogs. Over time, even
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: when you're losing, you build up a bigger bank all.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's how Sharpe's DoD You're just taking favorites
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: all the time. Obviously you're never going to make a profit.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: So you do need to mix in dogs and dog
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: money lines and football because every week you have to
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: kind of forget. We don't forget what you saw last week,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: but it is every every week any team can really want.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: It's so great about football. It's it's crazy, it's so
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: much fun. That's why Sundays are the best day of
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: the week. They're just amazing. Let me take you through
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: some ideas I have. And now that I'm not you know,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: tangled up the picks for this week or not. He
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: never sent me anything. I said, dude, just send me
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: your picks. He never sent me anything. So it's all
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: on me. It's too busy arguing on Twitter problem. It's
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: too busy, like you know, tweeting about hard Seltzer and
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Baked Goods and and fighting with people about you know,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: his picks on in the Action Network out Um. I
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: do have some very serious ideas though, and it uh
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: And I like a lot of chalk. I like a
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: lot of short chalks. I want you to talk to
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: me off the ledge, Okay, I'll do my best, buddy.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: I like Seattle minus one against the Rams. Um. I
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: love I love the idea of the like we like
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: we said last week the Rams and look right and
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: we were talking about that and how coming into this
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: year it's a notorious thing with goll hangover that's a
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: real thing. Um, and golf has not looked right since
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: he's gotten this money. And this this is a good
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: get right game. But it's a Thursday night game. So
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I put it in in the
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: camp in our super contest. But I'm with you on
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I actually do. I do like them here
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: in the sense that then prime time at home. I
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: don't know what the numbers are with the Seahawks, but
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I can tell you I've won a lot on the
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Seahawks in prime time at home. But we can just
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: put that on the side. We'll put it on the
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: side for a second. I've wanted a mission to make.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: I accidentally bet the Seahawks a plus two last week. Uh.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: I was I was going through the lines and uh
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: went too far down and went into week five and
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: accidentally made a bet. Uh terrible though, because honestly, if
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: if when you do look at when you do look
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: aheads like that, someone like me, I'm always looking for middles.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: So I know you did it by mistake. But people
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: always ask why people always bet like future games, future weeks.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: It's because they're always trying to find a little bit
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: of value. So a good one this week was I
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: did the Cardinals and I think I got them at
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: five and a half against um since and now it's
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: down to three. So if that goes to two and
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: a half, I'll take since you and I hope for
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: that three middle. So that's another little trick that pros
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: due to try to make an easy book. By the way,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, if you want to jump ahead for a second,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: that's another good idea you're giving your Like, man, you
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: are chock full of tips today. We should just make
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: like we should separate this into its own podcast. Before
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: I before I left the office tonight, everyone was telling me, like, good,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: look on your podcast. We only listen for charity. Now
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: we don't even like it anymore. Um. The only thing
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: they like about it is you. Honest to god, that's
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the only thing anyone in my office says, uh is
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: nice about the podcast. Well, I hope the actually listen
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: to me and put the Bears. I'm like you and
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Chad I saw, I mean you and Darren. You both
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: like Minnesota. Even though I told you, guys, Kirk on
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: the road against the Bears unbelievable. He's dreadful. He's just dreadful.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: He's terrible man. All Right, here's another one. Um, I
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: love the Texans again. I know it's like awful, but
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Carolina's defense is so good. Kyle Allen is clearly catching
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: lightning in a bottle. The Falcons stay. That was honestly
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: more about the Shawan. He said himself after the game.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: He couldn't hit. He had open guys like Will Fuller. Um,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: he missed him on two long balls which should have
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: put us up at bad minimum twelve twelve to eleven
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: point lead. So we got a little bit unlucky with
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: that one. I do like this line. I'm seeing it,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: um four and a half five. So it's kind of
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: in that. You know that a little bit of a
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Vegas dead zone. Atlanta did look like they completely gave
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: up last week at home. This is the kind of
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: game that this is a bland off if they actually
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: like their head coach, this is a game where they
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: show up. Um, so I probably will personally be betting
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta, but I like, I like your heads that
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: with Houston here, Um, you might be able to find
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: it easier short favorite. Well, I'm putting a question mark
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: on the Texas that minus five, right, now, uh I,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I I really like Carolina minus three and a half
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: against the Jacks. Yeah, let's say, um, that's a good
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: line last week. Uh, I definitely should have went with
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: you on the Jack. That just made me nervous. With
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Denver at home, Um, they're obviously always completely ruined that team,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: or maybe it's gonna work out. They're gonna get the
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: number one pick. But with Carolina here this week with
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the Jacks, we're actually not back graded value. I only
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: have this at minus for Carolina. It's only getting half
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: a point. Um, but that's also with my system. I
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: also have Ramsey playing. I'm assuming he's coming back this week. Um.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: If he doesn't play, though, I would, I would, I
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: would take through that Panthers game because that's a nice
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: little um left down spot for the Jacks going from
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: West coast back to east. All Right, all right, I'm
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna put a pin in that right now.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: I'm going to keep an eye on it. You how
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: you feeling about our colts bouncing back this week in
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: prime time? Well, clearly you got an opinion, So why
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: don't you tell me about it? I like I like uh.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: As the season goes along, you can find a lot
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: of really good value in these Sunday night games because
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Vegas over the years, they've gotten really smart with realizing
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: that almost everybody that comes in the Joe public, they
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: just all they care about is winning money and watching
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: the game they're winning money on, so a lot of
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: their parleys and teasers always get tied the Sunday night game.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: So most Sunday nights, like we did UM last week
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: with the Saints, you're getting good value because Vegas gonna
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: kick these lines up. So I had this against the
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Chiefs and Colts. At the Colts minus seven, I mean
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: the Chief's minus seven, and I'm seeing plus ten, plus
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: ten a half plus eleven for the Colts, which means
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: we're getting plus three and a half of value. The
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: only thing that makes me nervous that t Y doesn't play.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: The Colts looked like a completely different team without t Y.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Last week, UM basically opened it something really simple. They
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: were just bringing down the safety because they didn't need
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: to have them, and they didn't need to have a
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: safety back just because Holding wasn't playing and Matt couldn't
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: get anything go on the run. It was kind of
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: a lomber set. He did all right statistically, but they
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: could never get a stop on defense. So I get
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: why this line is so big because people so just
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: aw the Colts defense get absolutely destroyed by the Chiefs. Um,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: but I like this is I mean Oakland, but I
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: like this is a bounce back spot for the Colts
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: on the road plus town. All right, So that's another
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: one we're gonna keep an eye on for when the
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: lines come out. The lines for these come out tomorrow night,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: and I need we need to play. That's a big one. Yeah,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: need it. I need t Y for the Jags. We
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: need no Jalen Um. All right, what do you think
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: right now of Arizona plus three and a half against Cincinnati.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: It's it's one of those games I probably would avoid
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: for the Super Contest because these are these are both
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: two teams that are terrible. Um, you're right, I don't
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: even know what I mentioned it. I'm disgusted that I
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: even said it. I know, but I get what you're
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: thinking here because we just saw since he looks so bad,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: but this is truly there is no edge in this game.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: I have this game at three minus three for since Um,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: the public is all over Arizona. So the sharp I'm
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be on since but that's like, no, I'm not
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: happy to bet on Andy Dulton. You don't feel good
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: about making that bet. Why am I throwing games out
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: at you? Give me the games pigt edges and I'm
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: just gonna bet those. Well, I'm not always gonna right man. Man.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: That's why I like seeing for you and uh with
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: you and Dan's heads are at because this week is
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: a nice week where I do think it's a get
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: right week where, um, these these home teams have had
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: a bit of a weird run where yor not, they're
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: not covering, they're not I mean sometimes they winning, but
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: they're not really looking good and so a lot of
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: people this week, um, they're gonna be taking these road teams.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: So like a game that stands out where everyone's gonna
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: be liking a team and not like the team is. Um,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: I hate I hate to do it because it's such
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: a weird spot, but I do like the Cowboys were
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: spring back, so do I I love it. I don't
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: love the number, but I like that spot right because
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing minus three and a half or my hus three.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not a great number, Um, but this
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: is this is really a classic Cowboys get right at
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: home at night, like after getting kind of embarrassing on Sunday,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: like they played by far their worst game of the year.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: So it's a nice spot for the Cowboys here, agree,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: I'm adding into the list, um. And then for another
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's two dogs that are like really really
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: look good. But the thing with the Jets of Sam
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Donald not playing, there's zero chance I'd take the Jets.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: But that's that's a big public dog this week, Like
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: we've been hitting on these public dogs. So the Jets,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: it depends on what you're looking at. They're getting plus
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: thirteen right now, um at the Eagles, So that's a
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: really good road dog. And then another really good road
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: dog is Denver, who's catching six divisional game against the Chargers,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: where this isn't just like the Falcon this kind of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: game where either the Broncos are gonna show up for
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: their coach and play a really hard game and maybe
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: lose by a field goal the end with a chance
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: of winning, for are gonna lose by a ton of
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: points in their coach, they're gonna be fired the next day.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Like the Broncos I like, I like I like these.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I like these two dog spots of the Jets and
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: the Broncos. I don't know which one you'd rather take.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, this isn't no brand. You mean the
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: team the team that has no quarterback or the team
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: that has Joe Flacco as a quarterback. You've given me.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: It's like it's like Sophie's choice here. Yeah, And it's
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: definitely a nice spot because if you look on pay
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: for the Chargers, they are really banged up. I mean
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Miami Rosen looked like Chosen Rosen against him in the
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: first half. He was diceing them up, up and down
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: the field. So I like that number of the Broncos
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers. I like that number a lot more.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: I like that. Yep, yep. All right, So these are
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: my games right now. These are what I'm thinking about.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: Texas minus five, Panthers minus three and a half, Cults
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: plus ten and a half, Cowboys minus three and a half,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: Denver plus six, And then we should we should try
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: to think of one or two more that we can
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: maybe switching, because I did like the Giants last week. Um,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: it was too bad that like we ended up in
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Houston but um, I like that we had that reserve
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: just in case for the lines moving. Um, what are
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: you thinking? Are you gonna do another another favorite? You
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: when you're going to do another dog? I want to
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: do whatever the best choices, man. I wish it was
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: that easy, my man. Um, what about the Giants? Another
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: glaring short home favorite I like, I mean, it's it's
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: got to be the Saints like the Bucks. I get it,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: like the Bucks look like world beaters, but this is
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: such a classic. You know, they scored fifty five, fifty
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: four points in the road last week. They come in
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: the Saints this week and they maybe score ten. It's
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is Jamis Winston's career and microcos him.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So I had this that, um, Saints minus six and
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: the lines three? Well that's it. Look, I don't know
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about, because earlier in the podcast I
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: was talking to Scuge and saying how hard I was having,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: what a hard time I was having with this, and
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: that I love the Bucks potentially, but you are smarter
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: than me, and you have better logic, and you've also
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: made a line. So I will go against everything I've
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: said and put the Saints on this list. In fact,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: I might like them. They are they are a great
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: number one, a great number one option. Yeah, it's just
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: a really really nice spot for the Saints because they
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they look absolutely terrible on that gaming use up. I mean,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: obviously we got the win airthing like that, but I
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: think it was the first time they've ever had a
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: win since the seventies where they kicked four field goals
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: on one. Yeah. So it's it's a nice thing where
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: people are still kind of down in New Orleans and
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come in real heavy on the buckshefa the
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: books offense looks like world beaters, you right, I totally
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: misplayed that, I was I played that like an amateur. Um.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: I played that like someone who watched the primetime game
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: and was excited they got the Saints to win, not
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: looking at their box scoring and thinking about how they
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: really played. Yeah, the Saints are just really playing like
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: a team right now. Like a Teddy Bridgewater did not
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: play good at all. I mean, that was a big
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: stage for him and going up against the top five defense,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: but he is the kind of guy where he does
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: enough that he's not gonna lose us the game. Where
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: when you're back in the Buccaneers. Every time Winston drops back,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: it could be a pick six. So it's funny the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: public is coming in so heavy on the books. It's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: if they've forgotten everything that's happened in the past. Alright, Simon,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: I think we got I think we got six games
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: that we can choose five from. Right now, I'm adding
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: the Saints minus three and a half to the list,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: and then I will tweet out where we end up.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: I'm sure I'm going to have to debate this with
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: Darren and like you know, talk, We'll talk about it
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: and we'll text about it, because I think everything will
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: come out tomorrow night. So we're definitely not not prushing here.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: I mean I like that we have six so we
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: can switch one out here in case of injury. Simon,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: you've delivered quite possibly the greatest inside sports betting information
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: that's ever been had in any podcast about sports betting. Ever,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: we'll all downhill from here, my friend, Well, you did
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: a nice job. If all, if listen, if early October
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: of two thousand nineteen can be your zenith, so be it.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: I'm glad it was with us. No, man, it's it's
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: only gonna keep getting better. Here, I really want to
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: talk to you guys off the Patriots, but I needed
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: they're kind of get a lesson and gambling here that
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: every week. You just can't blindly just say, yeah, the favorite,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't they beat the crap by of this team.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: So it's definitely one of those things that the weear
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: goes on, you'll kind of see that there's little things
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: you noticed that it's just nice spots like even when
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: all my numbers say it's the other way, Um, I
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: don't always always listen to it that you always have
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: to put a human element into it. So definitely, as
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: we go alonger, we'll definitely get sharper and sharper lines.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: Try not to use my money to teach dannravel lessons.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: That's that's that's my lesson for you. I tried to
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: talk to you guys that, but I just don't want
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: to be too mean of a guy. I like you guys.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to be too mean. You know. I'd
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: rather you be mean and I make one five million
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: dollars alright, brother from here on out? All right, then, man,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next week. Thank you, sir, all right, thanks,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: thank you? All right, this has been the favorites from
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. I'm Chad Millman. Please follow me at
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Chad Millman on Twitter at Action Network HQ. Listen to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple, downloaded from Radio dot Com, and
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: search the favorites. I want to thank Simon Hunter for
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: coming on giving us the greatest lessons in sports betting
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: that we've ever had. Until next week, I love you.