Latest / Sports Avenue Twisted Podcast / Episode 75 Part I feat. The Draft Professor - Top 10 NFL Prospects, NFL Combine, Strength of Position

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Episode 75 Part I feat. The Draft Professor - Top 10 NFL Prospects, NFL Combine, Strength of Position · Sports Avenue Twisted Podcast

0:25
Welcome to another edition of the Sports Music Ave.
0:27
Twisted podcast. We have a returning guest in
0:30
here. He was he was here a little over
0:32
a year ago and it's that time of year again.
0:34
And, and the NFL draft is coming up in, in about a week or so or
0:38
a couple weeks and he's back once again and he is known as
0:42
the NFL draft. Professor Jim Wickens, welcome
0:46
back. It's a it's an honor to have you
0:49
on once again and and couldn't have a better person than you
0:52
when it comes to NFL draft stuff.
0:55
Oh, Rocky, thank you so much for having me.
0:57
Rob, thanks for having me. Yeah, we appreciate it.
1:01
It's it's, you know, it's that time of year again with draft
1:03
season just here and, and the draft just around the corner.
1:08
So like Rocky said, there's nobody better to have on at this
1:13
time of the year than yourself. So thanks for joining us today.
1:18
Well, you guys are welcome and you guys are very kind well.
1:21
We we try to be the nicest people as much as we possibly,
1:24
especially in the podcast world, man.
1:26
So let's get this thing started here, man.
1:30
There's so much we have to discuss over here in this
1:33
episode. And let's talk about the
1:35
national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers.
1:37
And we looked at how stacked that team was, rightfully still
1:42
so being the national champions. And you look at this year's
1:47
draft class, and obviously Fernando Mendoza is going to be
1:51
the center of attention, probably perhaps going #1 and
1:54
you know, there's speculation goes to the Raiders.
1:56
But talk about this year's draft class with the Hoosiers, like
2:00
who's going to be in a draft like the Omar Cooper, the Elijah
2:02
Serratz, the Carter Smith, the Aiden Fisher, and so on and so
2:05
forth. Like talk a bit about those guys
2:07
and what kind of impact those guys could be in the next level?
2:13
So I think the top four players from Indiana, they're going to
2:17
go off the board in some order would be Fernando Mendoza,
2:21
quarterback, likely the number one overall pick, Omar Cooper,
2:24
Junior D'Angelo Pons and Elijah Surat.
2:28
So Cooper and Surat are wide receivers, Pons as a corner, I
2:34
think all four of them go before the 5th Indiana players off the
2:39
board. So Indiana definitely has some
2:42
day three types that will probably be taken towards the
2:46
back end of the draft. But I think the top four, I
2:52
think Mendoza and Cooper are almost locked for Round 1 and I
2:58
think Ponson Sirot go before the end of day three or the end of
3:02
day 2. The the top of the first round
3:06
seems to be loaded with a lot of edges, tackles, you know there's
3:12
some linebackers corners in the first round.
3:16
So in this draft, which position would you say is is the main
3:21
strength in toy toy so. I, I think if we were to look
3:28
back in four years, I think we're going to say this was a
3:33
really good interior offensive line class.
3:37
That's I think where the conversation starts.
3:40
So I also think that's a safer take.
3:45
So I think more edges and more wide receivers are going to get
3:48
taken before the interior offensive lineman.
3:52
But like the success rate of edges in rounds 1 and 2 is like
3:56
13%. So we like talking about our
4:00
Mason Thomas, we like talking about Malachi Lawrence, but
4:05
there's going to be more misses than hits just in rounds one and
4:09
two at edge. So more edges will go before the
4:12
interior offensive lineman. But interior offensive lineman
4:16
typically are drafted for their floor and a lot of times they're
4:19
not going to come off the boards until rounds 3-4 and five.
4:24
But I really think the interior offensive line class is going to
4:27
be the part that stands the test of time.
4:30
I think edge and wide receiver are going to come off the board
4:33
very quickly. Like we did a we did a 32
4:39
podcaster mock draft last weekend and by the time Dallas
4:47
picked a 12 defense had been picked over, right.
4:52
So like edges and corners flying off the board early wide
4:57
receiver from about let's say the 13th pick to the 40th pick
5:04
is really solid, right? So I think, you know, within
5:08
those 27 picks, we're probably going to see close to 10 wide
5:13
receivers off the board before we're halfway through round two
5:19
kind of thing. So we're going to see a lot of
5:21
wide receiver names come off the board.
5:23
And I think they're all really good prospects.
5:26
And the NFL says you need to draft wide receivers early, but
5:30
that doesn't mean that the success rate of those picks is
5:34
high, if that makes any sense. So is, is that just a case of
5:43
the the premium of the position being edged wide receiver
5:47
quarterback and is this possible that you we're going to see some
5:52
really good players fall that probably our first round worthy
5:58
into the second round, maybe even the third round.
6:02
Well, good players fall every year.
6:04
Like last year, most people thought Xavier Watts should go
6:08
before the third round, but Savior Watts went in the third
6:11
round to the Atlanta Falk, right?
6:13
So the NFL tells us how they value things when Xavier Watts
6:20
falls to round three, right? It's there's a reason running
6:25
backs are going to drop to round 3.
6:27
There's a reason that that's going to happen with safeties.
6:30
There's a reason that that may even happen with linebackers.
6:35
When you look at how the NFL salaries are set up, whoever
6:42
gets picked first overall is making $40 million / 4 years,
6:47
right? So if you look at what the
6:48
contract the Cam Ward got last year, Fernando Mendoza is going
6:52
to get a slight raise. But that salary isn't there
6:56
because it's a quarterback. That salary is there because
7:00
pick one overall has their contract value negotiated,
7:05
right? And that's true for all 257
7:09
picks. So what's important to NFL teams
7:13
when they pick a player high is they don't want to give that
7:17
position a raise. So for example, of Caleb Downs,
7:22
the safety from Ohio State goes number one overall.
7:25
Are you ready to say you're paying a safety 10 million a
7:29
year? He's never played a down in the
7:32
NFL. He's going to be making 10
7:34
million a year. But then on the 5th year option,
7:39
right, the 5th year option is position specific.
7:44
The 5th year option isn't based upon where you were in the draft
7:48
order. So it's that second contract
7:51
that changes and NFL teams don't want to give that fifth year
7:56
option and give Caleb Downs that kind of race.
8:02
And we actually saw that with Tyler Lederbaum, right?
8:05
Because all offensive lineman fall into the same bucket,
8:11
right? The the salary cap and the 5th
8:15
year options are offensive line based.
8:19
So are you going to pay Tyler Linderbaum like you're paying a
8:22
left tackle, right? They're all lumped into the same
8:26
group and you're not going to pay a center that month.
8:30
So that was why Linderbaum was let go from the Ravens to the
8:34
Raiders. It's because that salary, like
8:37
giving him that fifth year option, was not economical for
8:40
the Ravens. It would have paid a center what
8:44
an offensive tackle makes based upon the league's formula.
8:48
And that doesn't make economic sense.
8:50
That should tell fans how NFL teams think.
8:55
It's not about how good the player is.
8:59
It's about what kind of raise are they going to have to give
9:02
them based upon the collective bargaining.
9:04
Agree. So that's why centers don't get
9:09
drafted high. That's why safeties don't get
9:10
drafted high. You need to be a really good
9:13
linebacker to be drafted high. It's just the success between
9:18
the success rate and what you're guaranteeing in salary isn't
9:23
worth it until the players a little bit further down the
9:25
draft board. Speaking of which, because you
9:28
mentioned about Caleb Downs, right, We look at the top ten
9:33
overall NFL prospects in this year's class and, and I believe
9:38
four of them, four of them are probably going to go within the
9:42
top 10. But if you had to make a player,
9:44
and we talked about quarterbacks obviously making immediate
9:46
impact and those that probably could, but probably not right
9:49
away. But if you had to pick one
9:52
player, maybe 2 if you want, which player within the top ten
9:56
can make an immediate impact to their teams right away.
10:02
Oh, that's a great question. Actually.
10:04
I'm also going to, there's also a Safeway to answer this.
10:08
I'm going to say Mansour, Delaine and Jermad McCoy.
10:12
OK. If a team is drafting A
10:14
cornerback, so Jermad McCoy, cornerback from Tennessee,
10:18
Mansour Delaine, cornerback from LSU, If a team is drafting a
10:21
corner high, the likelihood that he's going to see the field
10:26
immediately is nearly 100% right.
10:32
So corner is a position where you can transition from college
10:36
to the NFL pretty quickly, you know, And as long as McCoy is
10:42
over his injury, I think the players that we're going to hear
10:46
about early in their careers would be the corners.
10:50
So Delane and McCoy and then probably Jeremiah Love, the
10:58
running back from Notre Dame, would be the next, what I would
11:02
say, immediate impact. So if the goal of a high draft
11:07
pick is immediate impact, I think the corners are going to
11:11
go earlier than your mock draft simulators are telling you
11:14
they're going to go because they're safer picks.
11:17
Like I would say Jermad McCoy is a safer pick than Ruben Bane,
11:22
Germod McCoy is a safer pick than Sonny Styles and that
11:28
Styles 1 might be kind of hot takey, but there are there are
11:32
issues when you take linebackers high.
11:35
So I think McCoy and Elaine aren't going to get past
11:41
Washington at 7. I think both of them are off the
11:45
board before pick 8 kind of thing just because they're safer
11:51
relative to like Ruben Bayne or Arvel Reese.
11:57
Then you could maybe make the argument that they're safer than
12:00
Carnell Tate, Safer in terms of, you know, what a coroner is
12:06
going to give you. So if you're, let's say, a new
12:10
GM, right? So if you're a new GM and you're
12:14
picking in the top 10, do you want to risk taking a wide
12:19
receiver or go with a safer position like corner?
12:23
So about 50% of wide receivers just flame out as draft picks,
12:29
even in rounds one and two. And the success rate in round
12:32
one and Round 2 is nearly identical.
12:36
So if you start looking at the Cardinal Tates and the Makai
12:39
Lemons and the Jordan Tyson's of the world, McCoy and Delane
12:46
would look like safer picks than the wide receivers in my
12:51
opinion. The combine was recently passed
12:55
recently about in February, the end of February, early March and
13:00
who impressed you to the point where you believe that they
13:03
could come in and contribute right away and who really used
13:08
that week's platform to really help boost their draft stock
13:13
come this April? So from a draft professor's
13:18
standpoint, the combine is about rechecks.
13:23
So I draft professor, we cover the draft year round.
13:27
So we're already starting the 2027 draft and we already have a
13:32
board of close to 400 for 2027, right?
13:36
So we're establishing what our grades are in the players.
13:39
That process continues through December and January.
13:43
The combine doesn't really change the board.
13:46
What the combine says is go back and look at the film.
13:51
So I think the biggest discrepancy between the film and
13:55
the combine would be linebacker Jacob Rodriguez from Texas Tech.
13:59
Most of the scouting reports on Rodriguez were that he was
14:03
unathletic, but his combine testing suggested that he's more
14:07
athletic than his film. So we see a discrepancy there,
14:11
but I don't know that that change Rodriguez's grade.
14:15
If people were out on Rodriguez athletic ability, they may have
14:20
gone back to recheck and maybe he moved up.
14:24
But like for me, I still think Rodriguez, he's a top 50 player
14:29
in the class. He was a top 50 player in the
14:31
class before the combine. He's still top 50.
14:34
He just might be closer to player 25 than he is 50 now, but
14:41
did that really move him up? It just more, I would say,
14:44
solidified his grade to, let's say, people that were naysayers
14:49
because the film suggested limited athletic ability.
14:53
Let's talk a bit about it, But this QQB class here, we know
14:56
that Mendoza is the by far the number one player in this year's
15:01
QB class. But let's talk about the other
15:05
ones here and tell me what you think about the other class of
15:09
players in this draft like the Ty Simpsons, the Garrett
15:11
Newsmeyer. Is Aller going to the draft or
15:14
is he going to Is he going to is he going to go back to Penn
15:18
State? A.
15:19
Large amount of eligibility. He is definitively in the draft,
15:23
yes. OK.
15:24
And then you got Carson, Carson, Carson back, Taylor Green.
15:27
Yeah, talk about, talk about that.
15:29
The rest of the QB class? Like who could be a sleeper in
15:31
this in the QB class? So this is where summer scouting
15:37
really helps. And you have to know when you're
15:41
getting summer scouting grades. Are people projecting in the
15:45
grade or is the grade? Is the grade based upon film?
15:51
You're comfortable with the film?
15:53
And then is the player an NFL starter, right.
15:57
So when I'm looking and listening to scouting reporters,
16:03
and this goes for any position, but it's very true for
16:06
quarterbacks, I'm listening for can the players start in the
16:10
NFL, whether it's now, next year, the year after, does the
16:15
player project to be an NFL starter?
16:19
OK, so if you were to have watched Draft Professor podcast
16:23
last year at this time, we were saying Drew Alar is an NFL
16:27
starter. Kate Klubnick is an NFL starter,
16:30
Garrett Nussmeyer is an NFL starter.
16:35
OK, so where do you draft a starting quarterback, right?
16:40
You're not going to say I'm going to draft a starting
16:42
quarterback in round four. And you're probably not going to
16:47
say I'm going to draft a starting quarterback in round
16:49
three. You're probably going to do that
16:50
in round one or possibly Round 2.
16:53
So Drew Alar is an interesting eval.
16:58
He has a tremendous ceiling and he checks a significant number
17:03
of boxes. The biggest issue is if you look
17:08
at 2025 to 2020, or excuse me, 2024 to 2025, he didn't
17:15
progress. And he only played three games
17:17
for Penn State in 2025 before he got hurt.
17:20
So that's like that's the flag on ALAR is that there's a
17:25
ceiling. We can all see that it's
17:27
untapped. We could say the same thing
17:29
about other players at Penn State, right?
17:32
Nick Singleton is a ceiling that's not tapped, right?
17:35
Nearly any Penn Statewide receiver has a ceiling that's
17:38
not tapped, right? So Penn State does a great job
17:42
of getting these elite athletes and they play college football
17:47
in one of the most competitive conferences in the country and
17:51
drill are competed at that level for multiple years.
17:56
OK, He has the traits of an NFL starting quarterback.
18:00
He hasn't put it all together. I am very thankful that my
18:04
Buffalo Bills have a quarterback and we don't need to invest to
18:07
pick and drew along. Our quarterback, right.
18:12
Right. That's right.
18:15
But if you're a team without a starting quarterback or you have
18:19
a question. So my advice to NFL teams would
18:21
be if you're if you don't know who your starting quarterback is
18:25
in 24 games. So if you look at the next 24
18:29
games that your team is playing and you can't definitively say I
18:34
know that Josh Allen is starting this season and next season for
18:37
the Buffalo Bills, I can say that with confidence.
18:40
OK, so Buffalo passes the 24 game test, but any team that
18:45
doesn't pass that 24 game test, Drew LR, Kate Klubnick, Garrett
18:50
Nussmeyer are going to be in your building.
18:53
One of them is going to be in your building because if you
18:56
need to change a starting quarterback, the guys I just
18:59
mentioned have some traits. Cole Peyton from North Dakota
19:04
State University is another quarterback that can likely
19:07
project to being a starting quarterback in the NFL.
19:11
Peyton is coming from a lower level of college football and
19:16
those quarterbacks don't always work out.
19:19
So I think there's maybe more questions on Peyton regarding
19:22
competition level, but there's a lot of really good throws with
19:27
Colt Payton, right? So you can see things on film
19:31
with Peyton where you're going to be like, OK, I can invest a
19:35
pick in him that. And for me, that's like round
19:39
three. I would say something relatively
19:42
similar with Taylon Green. I think Taylon Green, it's more
19:46
of a projection. So Taylon Green is a quarterback
19:48
from Arkansas. So Taylon Green is a really good
19:52
athlete, not the best thrower of the football.
19:55
So he's going to get drafted, but I think it's more day three.
20:00
And as soon as he comes into your building, yeah, he might
20:04
take some snaps a quarterback, but he's probably going to have
20:07
to learn another position to stick around.
20:11
Like on a 53 player roster now, Green could live as a
20:14
quarterback on the practice squad for a year or two and see
20:19
if he develops into an NFL thrower.
20:24
And then like, I'm not going to quit Sawyer Robertson from
20:27
Baylor. So Robertson, he has a lot of
20:31
mechanical issues to work out, but he has a solid 2 years of
20:37
film. So there's a lot to be said for
20:41
a quarterback that is played two years of college football,
20:44
started two years of college football.
20:46
So I think Sawyer Robertson's going to get a shot.
20:49
I think you guys mentioned Carson back from Miami.
20:53
So we've been talking about Carson Beck for three years in
20:56
the draft space. I think one of the things the
21:01
quarterbacks need to learn is how much of your grade is based
21:05
upon projection. So Carson Beck three years ago
21:10
would have been drafted in round one, and now Carson Beck may not
21:15
go off the board until day three because we now know exactly what
21:20
Carson Beck is. There's no projection in the
21:22
evaluation. So therefore his grade went down
21:27
kind of thing. So we always talk about like one
21:30
of the things you want when you draft any position is a runway
21:33
and a good way for a player to give themselves runways to
21:37
declare when you're younger. Because an NFL, the NFL will
21:42
take a chance on a 21 year old more than it will take a chance
21:45
on a 25 year old. That's at any position, right?
21:51
But just in general. So you know, Carson Back, had he
21:55
come out earlier, would have been probably a high pick.
21:59
Right now, Carson Back is going to be a team's favorite backup
22:03
quarterback for the next 10 years.
22:06
This next question I want to ask you might be a bit of a a bit of
22:10
a loaded one, but let's talk about some of the the wide
22:14
receivers in this class. We know about the Makai Lemons,
22:18
the Jordan Tyson's Cardinal Tate stands up, Boston's Casey
22:22
Concepcion's. How many wide receivers do you
22:27
have with the first round grade in this in this class?
22:30
And ultimately, how many wide receivers go in the first round,
22:34
in your opinion? And where does the value lie at
22:37
this position? 2nd, 3rd, 4th, a three.
22:41
And are there any sleepers that you like wide receiver there?
22:46
Could there be a guy like a Puka Nakua that comes out of this
22:49
class in your opinion? Yeah.
22:52
So yeah, a lot of questions there.
22:55
I think 5 quarterbacks going round one, Carnell Tate from
22:59
Ohio State, Omar Cooper Junior from Indiana, Makai Lemon from
23:03
USC, Jordan Tyson from Arizona State, Casey Concepcion from
23:08
Texas. Saying it.
23:10
If a 6th gets into round one, I would bet that it's Denzel
23:15
Boston from Washington or somebody really loves Zechariah
23:19
Branch from Georgia's athletic ability and Steve.
23:24
So I think it's five in round one.
23:27
Maybe one more sneaks in. The 5th year option on wide
23:33
receivers is looking attractive, you know, relative to some
23:36
market setting contracts that are there.
23:39
So I could see I could see maybe a team trading up with Seattle
23:46
to go get a wide receiver. I think there's more likely to
23:50
be a run on corners at the end of round one than there is a run
23:54
on wide receivers. But that's just more of a hunch
23:57
because I think the cornerback class is weaker in the middle.
24:01
OK. But then the next question is,
24:03
OK, so I think the following receivers will hear their name
24:08
called on day one and day 2. So I mentioned Tate, Cooper,
24:12
Lemon, Tyson, Concepcion. That's 5.
24:17
I think Denzel Boston, Zachariah Branch, Ted Hurst, Chris Bell,
24:23
Jeremy Bernard, that should be 5 more will have their name called
24:28
on Day 2. I think Chris Brazil from
24:31
Tennessee will hear his name called on Day 2.
24:34
So that would be 11. OK, So I have a reasonable
24:40
amount of confidence in those eleven.
24:43
And then I think there's going to be some other names that
24:45
enter the discussion, such as Skylar Bell.
24:51
And then I'm looking through my list here, Brennan Thompson,
24:58
Ryce Lance. And now that pushes that number
25:04
up to 14 in the top 100. I still think more receivers can
25:10
creep into that top 100. Some people really like Lewis
25:14
Bond from Boston College. One of my favorites is Malik
25:19
Benson from Oregon. I don't think Benson goes in the
25:24
top 100, but the NFL didn't tell us last year in the draft that
25:30
if you are a athletic wide receiver, you're not going to
25:35
get past Round 4. So there's guys like Malik
25:38
Benson of Oregon or Brennan Thompson from Mississippi State
25:44
that fit that identification of like, we want a fast wide
25:50
receiver, we need speed in the wide receiver room so those guys
25:55
don't get out of the top 125 players.
26:00
Another player I really like, and it's a player that we have
26:03
been discussing at the draft professor since August, is Ole
26:07
Miss wide receiver Deshawn Stribbling.
26:10
So Stribling played one year old Miss.
26:13
He was at Oklahoma State the year before.
26:15
So when we're talking about him over the summer, we're looking
26:19
at Oklahoma State and we're like, we just really like the
26:22
guy, right? Like if you look at how Oklahoma
26:27
State used him, he's like a mini Debo.
26:29
He could line up at running back, he could line up in the
26:31
slot, he could line up at boundary.
26:33
Now, that's not how Ole Miss used him.
26:35
Ole Miss used him a little bit like that, but not to the degree
26:38
that Oklahoma State did. But if you see a coach that
26:42
wants to use a player like that, you know, that coach thinks
26:47
that's one of the best players that he has.
26:50
So Stribling would be the, you know, round three dynasty pick.
26:57
Like if you have a round three dynasty pick and you don't know
26:59
what to do. I don't know what NFL team
27:02
Deshawn Stribling is going to when I'm giving you this take,
27:06
but I am buying a lot of dynasty shares of Deshawn Stribling, and
27:12
that's even before I know what team drafted him.
27:15
Likely somewhere between rounds 3:00 and 5:00.
27:19
So that's definitely a sleeper for you.
27:24
Another sleeper. Reasonable chance this guy
27:28
doesn't get drafted, but I also think wherever he goes, either
27:33
as a late round pick or an undrafted free agent, I'm
27:37
cheering for Chris Hilton junior from LSU.
27:42
So again, this is a player the draft professor loved over the
27:45
summer like we were, you know, breaking down the draft class.
27:50
And LSU had a loaded wide receiver room.
27:53
LSU has four receivers in the draft and I'm talking about
27:57
Chris Hilton junior. I didn't mention Barry and
28:00
Brown, who's probably going to be drafted higher than Chris
28:03
Hilton junior. Barry and Brown will be a
28:05
dynamic kick returner wherever he goes.
28:08
There's Aaron Anderson from LSU and there's I believe it's
28:12
Xavian Thomas is the other LSU wide receiver.
28:16
What Hilton and Xavian Thomas have in common is that they're
28:21
going to be able to be a Boundary X wide receiver.
28:24
So if you're a Bills fan and you're familiar with like the
28:27
reason why Bills fans like Tyrol Shavers, he's a boundary X wide
28:31
receiver, right? Chris Hilton would project to be
28:35
a similar type of pro as a Tyrol Shavers, except Hilton is
28:39
significantly more athletic, right?
28:42
So Hilton has a 43 fourty. He blocks his ass off.
28:50
He's going to do everything do you want your wide receiver for
28:54
to do. He's going to be able to be a
28:55
four phase special teams player. He's going to block on running
28:59
downs and he's going to be able to stretch the field vertically,
29:03
right? SO43 speed has to be recognized
29:06
by the defense. Chris Hilton's going to make it
29:09
into a training camp. He has like 42 career college
29:13
catches. So if you want a sleeper like
29:17
this is a sleeper that has taken sleeping medication.
29:26
But then, I mean, there's more receivers you could talk about
29:29
like that, right? Because Colby Young, wide
29:32
receiver from Georgia, OK, he's going to go in round 5-6 or
29:36
seven, OK. But this is the guy that sticks
29:40
around in the NFL for 10 years because he's a red zone target,
29:45
right? So just just think of your
29:48
normal big body wide receiver that you want covering kicks.
29:52
Colby Young is a less athletic Chris Hilton junior.
29:56
But Colby Young has more seasons of college football with more
30:01
production. So he's going to get drafted.
30:04
It's going to be late. You know, I'm not picking up
30:09
shares of Colby Young for Dynasty the way I, you know, was
30:12
talking about Stribling. But if, if my team picked up
30:17
Colby Young either as an undrafted free agent or as a
30:21
late round pick, again, it's a guy I'm cheering for because is
30:25
he a tight end? Is he a wide receiver?
30:28
He's his use in the red zone would be huge.
30:32
So any team that gets him, you're getting a red zone
30:34
target. He's he's a big body guy and he
30:37
knows how to use it. You know, he's he's going to be
30:42
your standard possession wide receiver if you're not in the
30:45
red zone. But one definitely want to give
30:47
a shout out there to Colby Young from Georgia, Tatum Wet Jen from
30:55
Iowa. Somebody's going to get a kick
30:57
returner that they like. Chase Roberts from BYU is,
31:03
again, one of the things I look for in wide receivers is do they
31:08
have a path to make the roster? So if you're again, you're
31:13
looking around 5-6 and seven, you're either looking at players
31:17
that had a really significant injury history.
31:20
So they dropped. That was why Kuka dropped,
31:23
right? There were known injury concerns
31:25
with Kuka, so there was a reason he got pushed to day three,
31:29
right? So Chase Roberts from BYU,
31:33
again, he checks the boxes for what you want your NFL wide
31:37
receiver to look like. He's athletic enough to play the
31:41
position. He's going to be able to play
31:43
special teams as your wide receiver 4, Wide receiver 5.
31:47
So if you draft a wide receiver in round 5-6 or seven, you want
31:54
it to be a guy that's going to be able to play special teams.
31:57
Because if you can get, let's say, a backup X wide receiver
32:00
that's going to play every special teams unit you have,
32:04
that's what you're looking for, a wide receiver.
32:07
And then you see if he becomes a good wide receiver, right?
32:10
But at least he's on the roster. And for most rookies, or I
32:17
should say, let me rephrase that, for most draft picks, the
32:20
best time to judge them is year 2.
32:23
Year 2 Cole Bishop and Year 1 Cole Bishop were not the same
32:27
eval, right? Year one TJ Sanders and year 2
32:32
TJ Sanders will not be the same eval.
32:35
And we're always going to believe the year 2 eval over the
32:40
rookie eval. So when you're drafting a player
32:44
like Chase Roberts, you're basically saying can he make the
32:46
53 this year? And then what does he do in year
32:50
2? And like, a great example of the
32:53
NFL now is Alec Pierce, right? So I loved Alec Pierce coming
32:58
out of Cincinnati, and it took him the better part of two years
33:05
before he finally started getting playing time to land the
33:09
contract he got after Year 4. So no matter what position it
33:16
is, you want to temper expectations like it's Ty Felton
33:24
a boss because he didn't perform well as a rookie in Minnesota,
33:31
right? So, like, I mean, I was making
33:33
dynasty trades for Ty Felton this offseason because you can
33:37
pretty much get him for cheap. Every Vikings person I talked to
33:43
with the draft says the Vikings are drafting a wide receiver and
33:47
they're drafting it early because they're not happy with
33:49
Ty Felton, right? And the Vikings have Justin
33:53
Jefferson, they have Jordan Addison.
33:56
So they have two good wide receivers.
33:58
And those are premium picks that were invested.
34:01
That's two first round picks invested a wide receiver.
34:03
Ty Felton was a third round pick, invested a wide receiver.
34:08
If you're the Vikings, is it a good use of draft capital to
34:11
keep throwing a day to pick at wide receiver while you already
34:14
have three, You know, 2 day one and one day two pick at wide
34:19
receiver. You got three guys in your wide
34:20
receiver room that are premium picks like you got to give Ty
34:24
felt in the second year, right? That doesn't mean you don't
34:28
hedge your bets with like AD on Burks and round 5 or 6 wide
34:33
receiver from Oklahoma. Yeah, keep hedging your bets.
34:37
It's OK to do that. But don't use a round two or a
34:41
round three pick on a wide receiver if you've already got
34:44
three day one or day 2 picks in your room.
34:47
I don't think that's the right way to build a roster.
34:50
So I know I've dropped a lot of wide receiver names there for
34:54
you. No, you're good.
34:56
You're good. My favorite My favorite for
34:58
Buffalo is Bryce Lance, the wide receiver from North Dakota
35:01
State. If Buffalo can get Lance in
35:04
round three, I'm very comfortable with that pick for
35:08
Buffalo. Let's talk about the offensive
35:12
tackles here because you you said that and we talk about
35:18
offensive tackles is now becoming a need in today's NFL.
35:22
And, and it looks like it's going to be a strong class.
35:26
And talk a bit about the the offensive tackles in this year's
35:29
class, starting with Francis Managua, Spencer Fano, Monroe
35:35
Freling, Katie Proctor. And you can mention about other
35:39
names if if there's names that should be under recognition.
35:45
Yeah. So my advice to you is that if
35:48
you need an offensive tackle, I hope you drafted one last year,
35:54
right? So the biggest challenge with
35:57
this draft class is that we're not sure who's playing tackle.
36:02
Monroe Freeling is going to be drafted really high because he
36:07
is going to play tackle everything between the film.
36:13
His measurables say he's going to play tackle right and he can
36:19
play left tackle. So Monroe Freeling from Georgia
36:22
is going to go really high. It would not surprise me if
36:25
Freeling is the first offensive lineman draft.
36:30
OK. So then there's a lot of other
36:32
names though. So there's a Spencer Fanoa,
36:33
Francis Maui Noah, Spencer Fano from Utah, Francis Maui Noah
36:38
from Miami, Caleb Low move from Utah.
36:41
There's questions on all three of those guys, though.
36:44
Is Fano a right tackle? He has relatively short arms.
36:47
Not quite as short as Will Campbell, but short enough that
36:53
Is Fano a center guard or right tackle?
36:57
Maui Noah? The concerns about the arm
37:00
length are real. He will probably be drafted as a
37:03
tackle, but as Jerry Ostrosky pointed out, he's like, that's
37:07
probably an all pro guard. So, but where do you draft a
37:12
guard? Do you draft a guard in the top
37:13
10? So like Maui Noah going eleven
37:18
overall to the Dolphins sounds about right to me.
37:23
I think there's too many questions of Maui Noah.
37:25
And do you want to take a guard in the top 10?
37:29
Do you want to be the GM that said, oh, we got a really good
37:33
guard in the top 10, right? So there's some fuzziness there.
37:39
Like that's not typically how NFLGMS think.
37:43
If you're going to play guard and this is a really good
37:46
interior offensive line class, get one later.
37:50
So focus on a different position and get a guard later.
37:55
Kaden Proctor, the offensive tackle from Alabama.
37:59
The number of offensive tackles that have been successful that
38:03
are over 360 lbs at the NFL level is not many.
38:09
So you know, Sam Teach podcast with draft professors often says
38:14
always be careful drafting outliers.
38:17
So again, if your team needs an offensive tackle, I hope you
38:20
drafted one last year. And if your team needs an
38:24
offensive tackle next year, I have good news for you that the
38:28
offensive tackle class next year would be looking really good.
38:32
The number one offensive tackle for the 2027 draft would
38:38
probably be the number two overall pick in this draft
38:41
class, even though The Jets don't need an offensive tackle,
38:47
right? Like if you're The Jets and
38:49
Trevor Goosby was on the board, somebody is trading up for
38:53
Trevor Goosby. So he's that good.
38:56
So if you need an offensive tackle, I hope you drafted one
39:00
last year. If you need an offensive tackle
39:02
this year, it's the Monroe Freeling and Max I he mature
39:07
sweepstake. OK, so the tackles in this
39:11
class, the players who I will confidently say within the next
39:15
two years we'll be starting a game at tackle are Monroe
39:18
Freeling of Georgia, Max Ihinachur from Arizona State,
39:24
Austin Barber from Florida, Jude Bowery from Boston College,
39:29
Blake Miller from Clemson and Demetrius Crownover from Texas
39:34
A&M. Those are the players that have
39:37
all the measurables, the NFL teams like in tackles, anybody
39:42
rated higher than them, there's a question as to whether or not
39:46
they can play tackle. They may be listed as a tackle,
39:50
you know, on whichever site. But just you know, just because
39:53
there's questions doesn't mean we flip their positions like on
39:57
our sites. We just have questions on them.
40:00
We've seen Jeremiah Love perform at college and, and dominate
40:04
college football in the last couple seasons and he's going to
40:10
be that first guy to go off the board.
40:12
How good is he? How good can he be in the NFL?
40:15
And are there any sleeper RPS out there that that you could
40:21
see contributing and being starting running backs in the
40:25
NFL? And, and what's the value in
40:30
this draft? Where does that lie on running
40:32
backs? So Jeremiah Love, the running
40:35
back from Notre Dame is generally consensus running back
40:40
one. I don't see Jeremiah Love
40:46
dropping past the Minnesota Vikings.
40:48
I think the Vikings are 18th, are drafting 18th.
40:53
So A-Team may not want to take a running back high.
40:58
You could see like, Ashton Gente didn't have a huge impact his
41:02
rookie year for the Raiders. And there's a lot of people that
41:06
actually have Love graded lower than Gente.
41:09
So reading between the tea leaves, I think Love doesn't
41:14
make it past Minnesota at 18. But some people could also say I
41:19
don't see Caleb Downs dropping past the Vikings at 18.
41:23
So if Downs and Love are both there at 18, what happens?
41:28
But after Jeremiah Love, I think there's I think two ways to look
41:37
at the running back class. One way would be which running
41:42
backs have dominant traits? And one of the things about
41:46
running backs is they need a dominant trait to succeed at the
41:51
NFL level. So Jadarian Price has several
41:56
dominant traits, including elusiveness and breakaway speed.
42:01
Jonah Coleman forces a lot of mixed missed tackle.
42:05
So that's the running back from Washington.
42:06
So his dominant trait is being difficult to tackle as well as
42:10
being able to break tackles. Emmett Johnson from Nebraska,
42:14
really good runner for his own scheme, just really sets up his
42:19
blocks well. Has a really good feel for the
42:21
running game. So again, so he has a dominant
42:24
trait. And then maybe Mike Washington
42:30
from Arkansas with his extreme athletic ability, you could say
42:35
that's his dominant trait, but his kryptonite is that he
42:38
fumbles a lot, right? So you have to be able to take
42:41
the superpower with the kryptonite, right?
42:45
But then after that, you have to ask yourself, is there a running
42:49
back here that has a dominant trait that would let them win at
42:54
the NFL level? And again, if your team needed a
42:58
running back, did you draft one last year?
43:02
I said that for a few positions, but at the same time, there are
43:07
some guys I have my eye on. So the players I have my eye on
43:13
are Robert Henry from UTSA, Roman Hemby from Indiana, Katron
43:20
Allen from Penn State, Jamari Taylor from Virginia, Caitlin
43:28
Black from Indiana, and I'm looking there's one other name,
43:34
Curtis Allen from Virginia Union.
43:40
So I'm going to look at where those guys land and I may be
43:43
picking them up in dynasty. And the way that I'll put it is
43:47
like Roman Hemby out of that group is by far my favorite.
43:51
So Roman Hemby does a lot of things really well, but he's
43:56
likely the top running back on the board without a dominant
44:00
trait. So most of the running backs
44:02
that are generally graded ahead of Hemby, an analyst probably
44:07
thinks those running backs have a single dominant trait that
44:11
make them a better prospect. But what Hemby does is he does a
44:16
lot of things really well, which includes receiving and pass
44:21
blocking. So whatever team drafts Roman
44:24
Hemby, if he starts starting, so like if whatever running backs
44:30
ahead of him gets injured and Hemby is in the starting lineup,
44:34
I would say that Hemby is not going to give that spot up once
44:38
he gets it. So he's not going to come in and
44:40
be a starter for whatever team drafts him.
44:44
But wherever Hemby goes, I have a lot of confidence that once he
44:50
gets on the field, his coach will not want him to come off
44:55
the field and they won't need to take him off because they're
44:59
going to be able to use him in the passing game.
45:01
He'll be able to pass blah. He'll be able to run between the
45:04
tackles, he'll be able to run outside the tackles.
45:06
He's going to be able to be an every down running back.
45:10
He's just not going to be the every down running back that's
45:13
going to wow you with athleticism or break a lot of
45:16
tackles like Derrick Henry. He's not elite in anyone
45:20
category, but he's very good in nearly every evaluation criteria
45:26
for a running back. Thoughts on that?