Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall system's gone clear the left.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Oh baby, we're back talking some pay per view baby.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Fourteen fights, Madison Square Garden, six pm Eastern start time,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: UFC three twenty two.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: What a card.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: We have two five rounders, fourteen fights, a plethora a
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: big names, a big time fights. I'm super super pumped
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: for this one in real life DFAs big Boy Prize
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: is out there, I'm ready to dive in and talk
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: some fights with you, Big Marley. How we doing today
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: and this weekend?
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Good? I just heard about the new well Maker opponent.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: I just watched three fights of his right before we started.
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: But I do think that makes the card even tougher.
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: I think it's a really tough DFS card. So yeah,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: looking forward to talking about it. Hopefully you could talk
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: me into a couple of underdogs to feel good about,
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: because that's where I'm struggling. But we'll see.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll do my best. It was very unfortunate, so
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I Big Marley just said, this was Malcolm Wellmaker and
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Cody Hadden, and this was a minus one forty ish
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: plus one twenty fight. Eighty four hundred and seventy eight
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: hundred out is Hadden. And now we have well Maker
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: go from minus one forty to minus five hundred range
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: only prop I see right now under one and a
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: half at minus one eighty. This will leave well Maker
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: is definitely popular, but the mid tier is really strong.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I unfortunately did not want this to happen. It's not
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a deal breaker in terms of how good I think
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: the card is. But Valentino Whaley, this is a five
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: round fight. This is so, this is in the mid tier.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Sean Brady Morales, Sean Brady puts up a lot of
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: big scores when he wins as a heavy wrestler. Great
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: fight in real life, but a solid mid tier fight
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: to target. And then we have Pat Sabatini Cheffy Meriskol
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: where it's plus one forty five to finish. But again
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: check or. Sabatini's very similar to Brady, as you see
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: three point nine to eight takedowns. When he wins, he
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: does score over one hundred a lot. So mid range
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: is gonna be condensed with Valentino Whaley, and then well
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Maker is going to be one of the highest owing
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: on the slate. But I do think there's pivots, so
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: you can get away from that stuff if you do
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: want so. There's no fight that I don't know. I
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: don't think I'm gonna have one hundred percent of any fight.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: If I did, it would actually be Islam Jack Della.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: But I do think there's pass. Islam can win and
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: score ninety five ish comain events. I think there's pass
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: others in the mid tier outscore and yeah, fourteen fights.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: The bigger the number, the more higher scores you need
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: more than likely to be optimal, the more chances underdogs
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: do come through. So I don't really fight Stack fight
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Stack anyway. So that's kind of my broad sleep before
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: we jump fight by fight anything on your side.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: No, I'm probably not gonna be locking any fights either,
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: but I would go with the other main event or
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: the other title fight for my favorite DFS fight, and
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: I'm not against Stack in that one either. I think
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: it could put up a big two hundred plus point score.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Okay, that's similar to a take. I don't know if
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I can't remember who was in the discord. We were
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: just talking about it today though Bryant, maybe it was
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: so big. Marley might be on that path. When we
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: get to that fight, we will talk in depth about that.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: What's up? The FS whispers Yeah, welcome to Malcolm Wallmaker.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Chalk week is right, take down ysn abrusive Cameron. Thank you.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you're talking to me, but congrats
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: whoever's winning. If you were talking to me, I appreciate that.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: It's hoping for some Monday or Monday. What am I talking.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: I'll take a Monday night football ship on Monday. But
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: some Patriots jets actually going on right now while we speak,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: So go Patriots right there. But we're here talking fights
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: fourteen to talk about. No time to waste. Spot in
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: the top like always. First fight of the night, matteyas
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Camillo minus one seventy Slava Claus Borschev plus one forty
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: five minus two ten. For this fight to finish, we
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: have Camillo plus one forty inside the distance Borchev plus
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: two ten. So little money has came in on the
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: Camillo side. I put all this up on Tuesday. Ten
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: cents has come in on the under as well. I'm
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: looking at this three point The color coding is off
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: on this. I'll have to get the something's wrong in
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: the back end, but this should be green. Three point
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: four to four takedowns per fifteen is good. It is
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: a pretty small sample in the UFC, though Slavia clause
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: just a striker is known for very poor grappling and
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: very poor takedown defense, So I'm kind of looking at
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: this as wrestler grappler versus striker. But Mateyas can can
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: throw some hands too. I just the easiest path is
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: definitely to get it to the match. So how do
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: you see this fight going?
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure. I think it could play out
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: on the feet because to me, I think Mataeas is
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: primarily a striker. He did land like two takedowns in
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: his debut, and I would think it'd be smart to
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: wrestle here against uh against Borschev because he just doesn't
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: have wrestling as pure striker himself. But if the wrestling
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: doesn't go Camilla Camillo's way, And I'm also worried about
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: him having three rounds of wrestling Cardio too, so maybe
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: he wrestles in the first round, but then he starts
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: to slow down after that and the takedowns don't come
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: as easy. I just don't know that he's gonna put
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: up a big score with wrestling, But I have it
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: as a three and three because he would be the
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: one that's gonna land takedowns in this fight. I'm just
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: not confident in it in that and I'm also not
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: confident in him. So I picked Borschev to win this
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: fight because I think it is gonna end up playing
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: out on the feet more so than the ground. Uh,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: maybe Camillo slows down, and then once Borschev figures this
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: guy out, I think he could really pick up the
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: pace and put it on him get up maybe a
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: knockdown or two en route to a TKO win. So
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: my preferred play, I'm gonna change it to a two
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: for Camilla, most likely in a four for Borschev. But
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: it I mean, he's got to get a knockout for
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: any chance at a high ceiling. And if he wins
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: a decision Borschev, that is, he might not even hit
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: ten x. So I don't really love him as a
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: play either. But if i'm handbuilding, he's the one I'm
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: clicking on first.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's like, this fight's minus two ten to finish,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: he's plus two ten inside the distance, plus four fifty
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: by decision. So I'm not even like seventy five hundred
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: dollars win I'll take, but I think i'll more than
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: likely this fight does finish, someone goes asleep. On either side,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: I totally agree with you on the Camillo side. On
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: the Cardio concerned us a little bit. I mean, he
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: gassed against Gabe Green. He was winning that fight and
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: looking good and then he I mean, he just had
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: nothing left and it seemed like almost quit. And Slavakla like,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: if this is on the feet, Slava can he can
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: do some damage. Both guys chins can be cracked. But
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: at least Slava will fight for your dollar, and he
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: throws a lot more volume. So if you don't think
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: Camillo really wrestles, I mean I have to take Slava Claus.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: Then at dog money and the twelve hundred dollars savings,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: I will have some Camillo too at eighty seven hundred.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Though for the simple fact of again, under this fight's
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: minus two ten to finish under one and a half
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: is like plus one twenty. He's plus one forty inside
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: the distance. I wanted to look at sub and Ko
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: prop to see how how the books are seeing it.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: So plus two eighty five by Ko and plus three
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: fifty by Sub. But that subprop open plus five hundred,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: So good amount of money has come in on Camillo
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: by sub. I do like to see that for more
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: potential ground like takedowns, control time, et cetera. I like
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: this fight. This is one I want exposure to. And
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: it's pretty easy to leave money even when you're playing
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: both sides if you want to do it, like play
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: plug in Carlos protest and drop down to Camillo. I mean,
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: I'll spoil it now. I like Camilla is upside more
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: in a vacuum anyway, So I like this fight to start.
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I do think the sub does make sense
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: for Camilla two. It's just like when strikers go to wrestle,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: they just gas out quicker. It's just a different cardio.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And we saw it last time. I mean
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: he took Abe Green's back, he was doing well and
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: then gets reversed and then it was Gg's. He had
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: nothing left there. So good fight to start it. I'm
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: pumped for this one, all right. Next fight on the
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: car the biggest favorite minus one thousand Bisinger susterkar Suser
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: Kaiev minus one thousand, Eric mcconico plus seven hundred minus
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: six hundred for this fight to finish, Suser Kaiev minus
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: four to twenty five inside the distance mcconical plus seven
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: fifty suster Kaiev in round one minus one fifty. So
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really think there's much to break
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: down in this fight if you want to. I mean,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: we're talking to minus one thousand favorite minus four seventy
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: five inside the distance. My bigger question is he's ninety
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: eight hundred. The next highest price fighter on the card
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: at ninety five hundred, not really much interest in this one.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: I don't think anyone will. The next highest price after
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: that is ninety three hundred, So I mean, you're you're
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: definitely paying for susir Kaya when you play him. You're
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: gonna need to play dogs when you do play him
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: with him, and I am worried about a lot of
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: susar Kaya builds look pretty similar. So yeah, I'm what
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: does he need to do it? How do you see
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: the fight going and how much you think you'll.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: Have I think he almost needs a quick win bonus
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: or he needs a low scoring card where a lot
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: of underdogs don't come through BA I'm not interested because
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: he's ninety eight hundred. I think this is a striking match,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: and if he makes it out of the first sixty seconds.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be tough to be on the optimal lineup,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: and I think mcconico's tough enough to survive around or too.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: And if this goes to the third round, neither one
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: of these guys I don't think is making the optimal
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Like mcconical. I don't see a single edge for him,
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: aside from maybe like physical strength. But if he doesn't
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: knockout Susar Kaiev, I just don't know how he wins
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: his fight. So I'm exing out mcconico one hundred and
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: fifty three hundred lineups. I don't care how many I'm
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: exing him out. I'm not just not gonna play him.
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: The more I make, the more I Okay, i'd be
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: with Susir Kayev, but when I'm handbuilding, I just don't
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: know how to be able to pay ninety eight hundred
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: dollars on a card where I'm struggling to find underdogs
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: to feel good about. So for me, I don't remember
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: if I've ever had a minus six hundred inside the
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: distance fight marked as a two star. This might be
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: the first time, but that's how I feel about it.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: I just don't really have interested in it.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: No, I agree, I'd rather save money. Like the hot
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: the low nine K range high ak range offers a
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: lot of high upside fights, and I just like the
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: full punts, the mcconico's, the Angela Hills, the Gerald Meershartz
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: I don't like. So almost all my susir Kaya builds
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: I think probably start Jack Della, but I think that's
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: kind of what the field does. And then you're starting
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: to get in the same narrow path. Oh, then you're
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: gonna probably go to one of Valentino way Lee. Then
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play well Maker or just some path like that.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: So if you are playing Suster Kayak, trying to do
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: something a little different with him, assuming we're talking large
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: field stuff, if you're talking the single entry three max stuff,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: yeah you don't need to be as crazy. But yeah,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I'm in total agreement with you. So he's Suster Kaiav's ownership.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Right now, we have twenty four percent as our preliminary ownership.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I think that's yeah, I think that's about right. It's
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: it's definitely I will say a tough week to predict ownership,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I mean we have the clear fights,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: the main event to comain well maker. But after that's yeah,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: I think it's pretty tough to pinpoint. But yeah, I
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: like where we're at with twenty four percent, he's ninety
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: eight hundred. I would pick him for DK. Yep that
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: we play a salary based game, so that makes a
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: lot of sense. Big Marley on a very similar page,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Let's move on to another fight that Big Marley as
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: is a two star Teama Clin minus one fit or
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Fatima Clin minus five to fifty. Angela Hill plus four
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: hundred plus two to fifty for this fight to finish,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Client plus two to sixty inside the distance Hill plus
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: eleven hundred. The only way I'm gonna play some Climb
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: is if you can talk me into that she's gonna wrestle.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: So do you think there's four plus takedowns in this
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: in the rama possibilities for Climb.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think that's what happens, but minus
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: five hundred money line tells me that that's what should happen,
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: because if this is a striking match, I just don't
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: know how she looks like she's a minus five hundred favorite.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Hill's getting up there in age fifteen years older is crazy, actually,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: but she could definitely win this fight on the feet.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: She is a high paced, a high volume striker, and
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: she's a good striker too, So I would hate having
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: a minus five hundred ticket on client if this was
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: a fifteen minute striking match, and that's what puts Hill
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: in play. She's a safe sheep play if that's what
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: you're looking for. She could put up forty in a loss.
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: She could maybe win and put up eighty eighty five here.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: But if Klein is going to look like a minus
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: five hundred, I think that she would be landing a
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: few takedowns and having five plus minutes of control time
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: in this fight. So I'm not against using her because
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: she should be loaned. And I do think I mean, man,
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: I don't think she scores well on the feet, but
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: she is a good striker, and I do think like
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: she could maybe win the striking and then just really
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: put a stamp on a rounds with a takedown halfway through,
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: and then she's active on the ground. So I think
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: she could put up a pretty good score in a decision,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: which is what I always like to target is. I'm
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: not against Klein. I have it as a three to three,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: though in a two star because I'm not against either side,
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: and I'm also not going to really target either side heavily.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: It's not a fight I'm trying to force into any lineups.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: If I have ten lineups on this card and I
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: have zero of them, I'd be fine with it. If
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I had like two or three of either side, I'd
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: be okay with that. I think maybe not three out
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: of ten on clin that's probably a bit much, but
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: one or two i'd be okay with.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: Do you think you'll have more Klein or s whoser
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Kai of Kleine. Yeah, I really don't like either, so
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: I guess I won't say too much. Like I'm gonna
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: play a good amount of lineups. I'm very well might
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: play twenty seven fighters twenty like I'm not playing mcconico.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: I'll probably play everyone else after that, not much, but
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: this is definitely one of my least favorite fights. I
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: think Klein's better everywhere, so I don't really want to
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: click on Hill, especially when I do think we need
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: a win down below. I don't think like a forty
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: five in the decisions enough at sixty seven hundred on
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: this card. If it is, yeah, I mean she can
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: get there. That way, But ninety five hundred, give me
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Islam for three hundred less, give me maybe even Sean Brady.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I mean it's pretty close. Give me Ben Wah for
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: cheaper for sure, I'll say four hundred with bow Nickel.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: Give me Greg Rodriguez is Upside, give me well Maker,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: give me Dacas. Like, there's just so many guys that
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: can go down the list, I think where I prefer,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: but ownership will be really low. So in chap your lineups,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna x her out. Plus two to sixty
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: inside of the distance was fine potential takedown Upside as
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: the second highest or second highest price fighter though it's
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: by no means a fight I like in a vacuum,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: So it's just really an ownership game, theory fight. And
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Klin is my preferred fight or fighter in this one,
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: then Angela.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: Hill I would say that like if there weren't salaries,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Like if it wasn't, I can't afford to sir Kay.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: I'd rather have him because I think a first round
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: knockouts super in play, but I don't know that that
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: even gets him there at ninety eight hundred. That's why
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: I just don't think I can afford him.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, for sure. I mean he's minus one fifty
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: in round one. Like salaries not a thing. Suster Kaive
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: is the highest top three highest own on the slate, Like,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt about that. Biggest favor best inside the
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: distance round one prop. But I'm glad DraftKings got it right.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Three hundred more than the second highest price in five
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: hundred more than the third highest price. It brings decisions
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: into play, which is what we want. So props the
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: DraftKings on that before he gets to the next fight.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: If you want to join us at the Nation, there's
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: no better time November. Look at that all these sports
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: besides MLB going on. I don't think actually NASCAR either, MMA, NHLPGA, NBA,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: college football, and NFL. We would love to have you
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: at the Nation. Big boy again. MMA prizes. All of
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: our content will be up tomorrow. You can join for
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: as little as nineteen dollars using the code chip nineteen
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: gets you five days, get you this weekend for NFL,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: gets your college football, gets your MMA, gets your NBA.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, no better time to take advantage if you
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: have not already Again using the code chip nineteen, we
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: would love to have you at the Nation mid tier fight.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Next fight good one In real life, I'm pumped for
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: this past seventeeny minus one thirty Chepe Marisco plus one
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: ten minus one thirty five for this fight to finish.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Holy moly, is that a typo. That's got to be
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: a typo. Every other book has like plus one twenty
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: plus one thirty five, and this open plus one forty.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I think it's plus one thirty five to finish. I
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: don't think it took seventy five cents, So I'm gonna
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: say I want to say it's a type. I'm gonna
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: say plus one thirty five to finish in this one. Yeah,
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: it is okay because the fight to finish his minus
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: one fight to go the distance minus one sixty five.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: That was a typo that would have changed a lot
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: of stuff if I saw seventy five sense of line movement,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: but plus one thirty five to finish. We have Chepe
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: plus two thirty inside the dis in sabaenteeny plus four hundred.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: So the underdog in Chepe has the better inside the
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: distance prop by a good bit at plus two to
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: thirty versus sabateeny plus four hundred. Think about Sabatini. As
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: you see on the stone, three point nine to eight
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: takedowns per fifteen minutes. The dude is dominant on the ground,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: definitely position over finish, but he can rack up points
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: and score one hundred plus indecisions and now he like
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: the well Maker now or had an out. Well Maker
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: only makes this fight lower owned because some of the
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: ownership in this fight is going to well Maker right there.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: So if Sabatini outscores well Made her in a vacuum,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: you're looking at a lot better chance at lower dupes
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: and leaving that one hundred he has the same amount
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: of upside. So I'm definitely that's a pivot. I'm fine making.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I don't love it as much going well Maker down
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: to Chepe, but talk to me in this one.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be heavy on this fight. I like
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: it a lot for DFS because to me, it's kind
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: of a striker verse grappler matchup, Like Checke can go
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: out there and wrestle against guys, but you don't want
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: to wrestle against Sabatini. He is gonna have a clear
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: grappling edge in this one. He's gonna be dangerous on
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: the ground, but Chepe has never been submitted in his career,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: and I think, like Sabatine, he's not a terrible striker,
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: but I think Chepe does destroy him on the feed.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: It's kind of a binary fight in my opinion, and
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: either guy could look like they should be a minus
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: four hundred favorite, So that's what I always like targeting
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: either side of My preferred play is Sabatini just because
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: of his ground game, and he has to get the
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: fight to the ground to win this fight, so I
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: expect him to get at least three takedowns. If Chef
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: can get up, then we can get more. But I
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: do think the submissions in play for every round. I
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: also think twelve minutes of control time is in play too,
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: so I'll be heavy on Sabatini, but especially with hand
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: built lineups. When I'm struggling to find a dog, if
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Sabatini's in my lineup, I'm going down to Chefa seeing
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: if that opens anything up for me. Uh So, if
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: I ended up with more exposure to Chepe, I'd be
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: okay with that, but my prefer play, if I can
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: afford it, would be Sabatini.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I agree with all of that Sabatini's seven UFC wins
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: on DraftKings have scored eighty two ninety and that ninety
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: was a first round submission where he literally just got
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: into the mat, missed out on the bonus, but submitted
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: him after UH one, O five, one, O six, one fourteen,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: one eleven and one oh six, and a lot of
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: those are decisions, So that just shows his upside there.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: And yeah, like I Chepe's he's like a junkyard dog.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: He's always moving. He is good. Like that Damon Jackson
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: fight is one that always will stick in my head.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Same with the Damon Jackson Sabatini fight where Jackson knocks
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: him out. I don't know if his brother passed or
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: it was some crazy thing. He just he chin checked
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: him right away. But Chefe's a dog. If he can
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: get up, that's what you want. Because Sabateen he could
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: get eleven takedowns, like he can just chain him because
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: he's not gonna want to be at distance against against Chefe.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: So I hope he can get up because then it's
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: rinse and repeat. Whereas Brido he couldn't get up. It
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: was thirteen minutes plus of control time. It was that
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: easy for him, which still does score. So it just
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: shows how much scoring opportunity in multiple different ways, like
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: this fight finishes Sabatin he can score in a sub
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: goes the decision, Sabatin he can score there and it
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: has to be capped his ownership because of that mid
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: range being so good, so I like it. And then
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: plus two thirty to finish that seventy nine hundred is
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: also very good too. So yeah, a fight on targeting,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: even though it is a favored to go the distance,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: but at least money has come back in on the
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: under open plus one forty five to finish now plus
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: one thirty five, which I do like to see. Next
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: fight on the card Kyle Daucas minus five hundred, Gerald
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Miersharp plus three seventy five minus two fifty for this
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Daucas minus won forty five inside the
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: distance Miershart plus four sixty. I mean, I think Kyle
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Dawcas absolutely runs him over. I'm really happy that he
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: got back in the UFC and he made a statement.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: He showed Dana and the boat like, come on, man,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: he's still here to fight. He's well rounded, he'll fight
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: for your dollar. I mean, he beat Michelle Pereira in
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: convincing fashion that was a good win and Jerald Mierschart's
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: thirty seven The Dude thirty seven and twenty Like Daucas
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: is as hungry as ever. I'd argue he's in his
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: prime at thirty two. I like him a lot. At
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: ninety three hundred, I think we could be looking at
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: a first round maybe second round. Finish ownership has to
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: stay in check to some extent. With Islam right there,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely playing some Daucas And if I'm only playing
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: ten teams, I'm not playing Jerial Miershard. I do not Yes,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: he always has that submission path whatever. Dowcas is good
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: on the ground. I think this is one way traffic.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Doucas has him covered everywhere. So I'm
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: gonna ex out Mearshard as well. And he's somebody I
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: usually do like to play when he's cheap. I think
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: he's made me a good amount of money over the
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: years as an underdog, but not here. I'm just not
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: gonna risk any money on Mearorshart because I don't think
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: the sub is in play. I don't even know that
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: he has any grappling, any submission grappling edge in this fight,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: give me Doacas. The worry would be that Doaucas is
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: just cruising on the feet and he doesn't get a knockout.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: He's not gonna put up a big score with no
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: takedowns and no knockout, so I'm not gonna force Aucas.
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: But the line says he should get a finish, so
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: I think he would put up a decent score in
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: a first round knockout from Daucas against the first round
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: submission from Islam could put Dacas on the optimal at
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: lower ownership and you get less dupes that way. So
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: I think Doucas is a decent play. But I have
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: this is a three star because I'm worried about the striking,
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: you know, going the distance with striking, and because I'm
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: just not gonna play any mimeor start. It's it's one
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: way traffic for me.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, We're we're in agreement there. That was one
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: of the I debated betting is inside the distance pot.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: That was a line that stood out to me from
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: the get go. Kyle Dawkas should run him over in
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: this one. The same favorite like the same lines right here.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: While makers minus five hundred ethan ewing is plus three
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: seventy five, just like we talked about with Dacas Mearshart,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: but again because Hadden's out and this fight just was
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: announced like an hour or two ago, eighty four hundred
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: ninety three hundred, So you're saying the nine hundred price
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: difference with again the exact same money line at minus
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: five hundred I penciled in. I didn't put it here
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: with sixty eight hundred, is my guess. I'm where Ewing
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: is gonna come in. Just because we have a sixty
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: seven hundred fighter in Hill and a sixty nine hundred
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Miershart and no sixty eight hundred. It seems like DraftKings
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: tries to price people where knowing is price, if it
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: makes sense. So I'm gonna say eighty four hundred well
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: Maker sixty eight hundred Yewing minus five hundred well Maker
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: plus three seventy five Ewing, And the only prop I
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: see is under one and a half that open plus
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: one sixty one and it's now minus one eighty seeing
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: that makes me think that a well Maker finishing prop
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: will be I don't know, minus two to seventy five
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: ish something in that range. He's eighty four hundred. He
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: hits like a truck. But with that being said, he
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't wrestle so at least like what a knockout in
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: a minute in seven seconds? In a knockdown one oh four,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: you'd take one oh four all day at eighty four hundred.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, I guess saying it like that, yeah,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: I guess, how does he fail? How do you see
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: it going?
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, eighty four hundred. You take that as a
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: normal minus five hundred price tag. Maybe you don't take that.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, I actually thought you ing
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: looked a lot better than I was expecting him to
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: look on those three fights that I watched. But he's
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: a pure striker too. He is pushing forward, he's landing
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: a lot of close shots. I he'll get in a
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: lot of jabs, go for the body two And I
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: don't know that you want to get in close against Wellmaker.
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Weller Maker has the best hooks in the entire UFC,
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: big time power. He only needs to land one, and
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: he's just so good at at the countertiming. I think
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: eventually he's going to land one and knock out Ewing.
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: But all of your points are pretty much coming from
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: that knockdown in the wind bonus, you need it to
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: be in the first round. I mean, I guess at
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: eighty four hundred, you could take a second rounder from
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: well Maker two. Which is the problem. I want to
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: try and get away from him because of the ownership.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: But I mean I want well Maker in my lineups
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: because I think he's going to get the knockout with handbuilds.
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to get any ewing. But I'm interested
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: in the unknowns for him and me. I think i'd
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: be fine with him in my player pool. He'll be
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: sub ten percent and he could win this fight and
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: score from what I saw, even if you want a decision,
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: I feel like he could put up seventy five plus
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: points in a striking base decision if it's like he
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: is pushing forward, showing what he showed in that he's
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: not worried about the power and or just the powers
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: not landing, and he realizes that like I can eat
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: these shots. And if it's just his volume against well
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Maker's volume, I think he would be super live in
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: a fifteen minute striking match, but ten twenty lineups, I doubt.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: I doubt. I have to go there. I don't know.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: We'll see, I guess, but I have this as a
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: four star because of the Ewing side being pretty much
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: a no go. I almost made it a five star,
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: but put the five in one, and that almost seems
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: like I'm forcing well makers. I didn't know I might
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: move it to that. We'll see how many well maker
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: lineups I end up having when I start to build.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: But I want to say he's not a must have.
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: He's just not really good play.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's a must have because Valentino Whaley
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: Winner can outscore saventeen we talked about, can outscore Sean Brady,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: can outscore Heck. At the end of the day, Chep could,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: Slava Clause could, Like I just have fourteen fights. I
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: think there's a Jack Della for cheaper he wins. He could.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: So I just think there's enough pass or enough people
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: below that have the upside that I don't think he's
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: a lock. Your ethan Ewing take is interesting, and if
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: he is price sixty eight hundred, like, I think I'm
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: gonna play some just for the natural a. I don't
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: like mcconico, I don't like Angela Hill, so I'm fine,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: like I can any ownership I would have there, I
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: could played at Ewing, but it's the most leverage, Like
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Wellmaker will be top three owned on the slate probably
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: or something like that. So you're getting so much direct
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: leverage and you're getting the appropriate price of Ewing because
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be out of the playerpool tomorrow, or at
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: least he should at sixty eight hundred, where he's plus
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: three seventy five, So a very low owned Ewing who's
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: priced sufficiently versus well Maker, who's mega chalk because he's not.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: But I mean, if he loses, he loses, like Mma,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: It's it's really obvious in that sense. Yeah, I'm gonna
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: play some Ewing, you like kind of how we look
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: down the feet. I'm gonna get a little as a dog.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: If he wins and score seventy five, you know what
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I mean? That could be enough if a jams in
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: the upper tier or whatever it may be. So yeah,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, if they price him at seventy eight hundred,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: we're kind of talking about a different story, but sixty
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: eight hundred, I'd be in on a little Ewing. Well
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Maker obviously a great play, but it's not sneaking past
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: anyone all right. Next fight on the card Aaron Blansfield
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: minus two to fifty Tracy Cortes plus two ten plus
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: three hundred for this fight to finish Blansfield plus three
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: seventy five inside the distance Tracy plus eight hundred. Yeah,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: I mean how much I take it away. I do
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: not like this fight. I know Blansfield's gonna wrestle and
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: probably have success, but yeah, nine K is a lot
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: to spend. I don't want to pick Tracy either though,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: because I think Blanchfield's better everywhere, So I'm not having
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: much of this fight personally.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm okay with either side, but I'm not really
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: trying to get to this fight. I think I'm okay
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: with either side because they are both good on the ground,
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: and if either side does clearly win this fight with
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: a wrestling, grappling, heavy based style, then they can put
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: up a big score. But you really need that from
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: Blanchefield at nine K, and I don't trust that that's
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: what's gonna happen. I think that this could play out
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: on the feet more so than on the ground, and
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: if it is a fifteen minute striking match, I don't
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: think either side is going to have a big score.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: So Blanchefield is the side that has the ceiling. You
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: can get different from the field by putting her in
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: her in your lineups, and she can get there. But
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: I feel like I'd probably rather take my chances on
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: Cortes at seventy two hundred. Who is going to have
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: to land a couple of takedowns I think to win
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: this fight. And judges are idiots in corrupt so you
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: could definitely get them giving you an extra thirty points
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: that way. So it's really a three and three for me.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: But if I had to pick right now, who would
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: put in a lineup, probably Cortes.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: Do you see Cortez having success getting takedowns?
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: I would think she lands at least one, but no,
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: I don't think she like Cruise Days by land in
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: three or four takedowns and just clearly wins. I think
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a really close fight if she wins.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: I have Blanchefield winning, but I still think it's gonna
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: be a close.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Fight, all right, Yeah, I just think Blanchell is kind
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: of better everywhere, But it's a fight heavily favorite go
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: of the distance between two girls that kind of do
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: the same stuff. Like if they're wrestling the gates each other,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: which I'm worried about that it does on the feet.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: You're not You're not gonna want this fight. Cortez wins,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: score seventy three. Again, there's pass for it. But if
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: you have tell me, like three other dogs win, Tracy
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: still probably doesn't get there at that price. Not a
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: fight I want much exposure to personally, Let's go to
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: a fight. I do want a good amount of exposure
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: to Gregor Rodriguez minus one eighty five Roman Copula plus
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: one sixty minus two fifty for this fight to finish
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Rodriguez plus one twenty inside the distance Copula plus two hundred.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I like this fight every which how much throw it
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: to you on this How much do you think Gregory wrestles?
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Do you think he's shooting for a couple of takedowns
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: in round one? Or do you think he's gonna feed
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: into copy Lov? Give Copylov the fight he wants and
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: just I mean, yeah, like him and Cheety just bang
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: it out and see who's tougher and who goes down first.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: How do you see it going?
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think he I definitely think he
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: should wrestle, But I do think he will wrestle because
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: his issue is his chin, and it's a big worry.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: Like I like Rodriguez a striking quite a bit. He's powerful,
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: he's got really good hands. He could win this fight
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: if it stays on the feet, but I don't know
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: that he would, and he could definitely get knocked down
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: any round. He would probably gasp before copy Love gases
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: in a in a striking match, and Kopylov just has
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: more tools on the feet that you got to worry about.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: So take the fight to the ground where you don't
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: worry about anything from the Copy Love side. All you
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: got to worry about is not gassing out. And I
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: think Rodrie, you guys, could look like a minus five
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: hundred favorite if he is out there looking to not
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: strike at all in this fight. My worry is that
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: he does strike, though, because he is a good striker too,
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: and fighters are idiots typically, So I just don't trust Rodriguez.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: But I really like his skills. I like his style
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: when he is smart, so I'm gonna be heavy on him.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: I'll be around the field, I'd say on Copy Love, though,
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: because I'm worried about especially if I have leverage on Rodriguez.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: I'm worried about him getting clipped really in any round,
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: and if it's a first or second round knockout, copy
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: Love is on the uptimole.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going copy Love just for the sense of
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping Gregory is kind of dumb and doesn't really
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: wrestle like he's done in so many fights. He just
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: is fine, like he's fall in love with his hands
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: a lot, and Cocolov is super dangerous, his fins, his
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: kicks just comes from so many different ways. He's powerful
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: for one case, savings, solid money line value. Cockylov is
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: my pick, but I do like Gregor Rodriguez a lot.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: I think, like, if you decide to wrestle, yeah, he
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: should dominate, even if it is a striking match. Gregory
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: has the power to land one punch and finish the fight.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: But I mean, Rodriguez has been knocked out and four
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: of his six losses I think we could see that
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: be a fifth. His chin's definitely absorbed a lot of
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: damage and Copulov hits hard, so I'm hoping he doesn't wrestle.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I'm on the copyl up side, but I still like
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: Gregor Rodriguez for a lot of upside at eighty six hundred.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, ooh Nickel minus two to
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: twenty five Rudolpho Vieira plus one ninety minus one oh
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: five for this fight to finish Nickel plus two oh
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: five inside the distance the era plus three ten. What
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: I don't like to see is the over has taken
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: some money. So this fight open minus one thirty to
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: finish now minus one oh five Nickel opened plus one
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: seventy five inside the distance now plus two oh five.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: Vier open plus two eighty five inside the distance now
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: plus three ten. So every inside the distance prop in
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: the fight to finish has gone the wrong way. What
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: do you make of that? I see you have it
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: a two star and you like Viera a lot more
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: than Bo. So is bo one of your least favorites
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: in the upper.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: Tier probably, But I just don't really like this fight
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: in general. I mean, it's wrestler versus BJJ, so we're
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: gonna get a striking match, and we're thinking that one
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: of them is gonna score well in a fifteen minute
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: striking match. I think Nicol plays it safe. He doesn't
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: try and get Vierra down, at least not in the
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: first round. Maybe after Vira starts to slow down, maybe
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: Nicol can start getting takedowns on the second and third
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: where he's a little bit safer, more slippery. But in
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: the first round, I feel like if bo gets a
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: takedown in the first round, Viea is gonna be fine.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: If theer's got a takedown or took Nichols back, I
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: think he could. He'd be the one that would start
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: to panic because these wrestlers aren't used to being, you know,
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: on their back there used to be in the alpha.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: So I think Fierra is live to score one hundred
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: points here and break Nicol. I think he's got to
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: land a knockout to have a big shot. I just
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: don't see him landing eight takedowns in this matchup against Vieira,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: who is really only dangerous on the ground. So I
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: expect Nicol to win two rounds in a close striking
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: match that takes place almost purely on the feet. And
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: I'm not interested in either side of that. So if
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: I was gonna play it, I think I'd rather have
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: the underdog. I'm not gonna x out either side though,
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: because they because Nicol could knock him out in the
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: first round. I still know that he's a good enough striker.
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know that he believes in himself that much.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: But Vierre is not a good striker himself, and he
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: could definitely get clipped.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't love this fight. It's I broughte it
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: up pretty much like I want to be even with
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: the field for the sense of I don't want whatever
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: happens in this fight to bury me. Like if Bo
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Nicol just dominates the wrestling, which I don't again see
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: too much because Vieira is grappling and he puts up
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: one hundred and seven, I mean he's gonna be relative
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: pretty low owned. He has the style and he has
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: knockout ability. Pierra seventy one hundred is one of the
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: best scrapplers to step into the UFC. I mean that's
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: freaking like that. That does a lot and has a
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: lot of upside for the price. I prefer vi Era
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: if choosing mainly just for the two K savings, like
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: a seventy five might be enough at seventy one hundred,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: where it's definitely not enough at ninety one hundred. So
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: because I like less dogs, beer is my preferred side.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: I don't love Bo I'm not exing out bo, but
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I'm in agreement. I don't like this fight too much.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: And holy moly, first and second for one hundred and
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: twenty five big ones. That is awesome to Tayo's rats, Yeah,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: that's something you never forget. One hundred and twenty five
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: bank not only first, but second and yesterday if it
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: was yesterday that you said, hey guys after grinding, Yeah,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: last night that was the five dollars, which is what
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: for eight thousand people taking first and second and that
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: is one of the That's an amazing feat. You should
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: be very very happy with yourself. So hey, be smart
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: though with Mankrel, don't don't be uh, don't be playing
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: twenty x, which you play every cently and the next
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: thing you know, it's gone. People have done that. But
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: enjoy that. That is that's really sick. Mateo's all right,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: keep a rolling five fights left, I mean you can't
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: very few times can you just put five fights in
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: a row. In my opinion, go banger banger, banger, banger banger.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: I think that's what we have here.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: Though.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: I'm excited for all five of these very much so.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: First fight and he've been watch Stani fight's gonna be
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: fun minus one eighty taking them Benil deir Use plus
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: one fifty five minus two fifty for this fight to finish,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: Bin Whap minus one twenty inside the distance dair Use
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: plus three ten. I just will always play Benoa fights.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: He walks forward, he'll wrestle, he'll throw, he'll bring it
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: to you. If you're gonna win. I mean, you gotta
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: beat him. Ce Leski do Santos, that's important, Like, you
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: gotta beat him. He's a great hammer. He can take
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: damage too. He'll even when he loses. Damay Connell like
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: the doctor steps in Like this, dude, is the definition
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: a fight for your dollar. Darius getting up there at
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: age of thirty six. I'll definitely play some Darius though,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: just for the fact of if Benoit doesn't win, I
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: think his opponents score as well. Like I just want
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: his fights. So I'm in on this fight and every
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: which way. Yeah, what about you?
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I might change this to a five
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: star because I like both sides of it. My preferred
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: side is gonna be bsd just because he is good everywhere,
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: but he is high paced everywhere. He's a high paced
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: striker trying to knock off his opponent's head, and he
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: could wrestle heavily for fifteen rounds. I just like his
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: style for sure, But Darry Hush is really good everywhere too.
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: He's dangerous everywhere. If he would just pick up the
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: pace and match Saint Denis aggressiveness, I think he could
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: win anywhere in this fight. So I would expect if
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: dary Use wins, I really either side of this fight,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: I would be pretty surprised if they didn't hit ninety points.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get a big score from either side,
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: probably get a couple takedowns from either or both sides,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: could get a finish in the first, second, or third round.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm just gonna be heavy on the fight
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: prefer BSD. But again, man, if I really need to
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: go down to day Use to see what that does
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: to my lineup, I'd be fine having more exposure to
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: dary Use.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: I would too. I just want to buy all seven
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: of vsd's wins have scored over one hundred, Like the
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Duja is just the nut when it comes to dfs,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: like whether he wins or loses. I know, I think
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Portia only scored eighty seven. He was kind of he
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: was getting beat in that fight, landed the left hook
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: or whatever it was. But I mean eighty seven, I'll
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: take that all day. At Darius's price at seventy four hundred,
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: just give me a lot of exposure to this fight.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: I think one of the best on the card. All right,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: next fight on the card, Carlos Protez and Leon Edwards.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Minus one sixty two is protas money has been coming
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: in on Leon plus one forty two is Leon minus
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: one fifteen for this fight to finish Protest plus one
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: forty five inside the distance Edwards plus four fifty. So
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: that's interesting, minus a little money, not much. It was
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: minus one ten to finish, now minus one fifteen. Protess
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: was minus one ninety five on Monday though, now minus
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: one sixty two. Hmmmm. I had both guys is underweight
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: and I still think I agree with that. But does
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: this line movement indicate that Leon's gonna wrestle or do
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: you just think the striking is a lot more or
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: do you just think the striking is competitive? I don't know.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: I think the biggest difference is the power, Like minute
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: for minute, sure, but man, Pratis just hits so hard.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: If someone wrestles, it's Leon. But is this line saying
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: that these got these two on the feet are pretty even?
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: How do you see it going?
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Edwards can hang with anybody on the feed,
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: so I think it would be fairly even. I lean
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: with Protase in volume. I lean with him in knockout
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: power as well. Yeah, if there's a wrestler in this one,
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: it should be Leon. I don't know that he's going
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: to be a real wrestler where he wrestles for ten
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: plus minutes and puts up a big score, but if
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: he wrestles enough just to win the fight at seventy
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: three hundred, I'd be interested. I have this as a
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: two star though, because I am expecting a slower paced
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: striking match, and if there's a finish, I think it's protaset.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: So I put him as my four stars, but another
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: fight that I'm just not looking to target fine landing
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: on either side. If I land on Protests, I want
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: it to be because it's a lower owned could win
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: me a solo ship type of type of lineup, And
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: if I land on Edwards, it's because it's my sixth spot,
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: and that's I had seventy three hundred or less in
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: my lineup, and I'm fine with that really for any underdog.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: Like if i'm handbuilding, I'm trying to start with my favorites,
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: see what it puts me at as my sixth spot,
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: and see if I'm okay with them, and who I'd
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: be okay moving down to to leave some salary. But
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: that's kind of how I see me handbuilding on this
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: car because underdogs are so tough to choose from, and
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: I might have to even move from one of my
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: favorites down to the underdog that I was originally going against. Yeah,
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: that could be another one here.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't like this fight much. The protest stuff,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: A second round knockout very well might not be enough.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: At eighty nine hundred. The first round is not even guaranteed.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: There's no wrestling on that side. Money's going against him.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: Just everything is telling me more so. Leon with that
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: being said, he's still plus one forty five inside the distance.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: He should be relatively low owned. And I mean he
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: has he has super superpower, Like he scored one hundred
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: plus multiple times. What he did to who is the
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: Chinese guy that he just like debted three? Oh fuck
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: it was just on the tip of my tongue. UFC
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: stats oh u jing leang, yeah, jingling or whatever. Three
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: four knockdowns, like I mean, just beat the brakes off
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: of them. Protest was when he gets in flow state,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: he is in fight. Yeah so good, Yeah, flow state,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: he's nasty. But Leon is definitely a step up. I'm
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: hoping it goes to the distance. I do not want
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: much exposure to this one. Leon might prefer play for
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: the savings next fight. Three fights left, I mean, big, big, big,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: big fight for the division, just real life. Sean Brady
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Michael Morales, two of the better one seventies out there.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Minus one thirty is Brady, plus one ten is Morales
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: minus one ten for this fight to finish, both guys
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: the same inside the distance propit plus two forty five.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Interesting to note the little money come back and came
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: back on Morales. It was minus one thirty nine Brady
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: not minus one thirty and then eighteen and o versus
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: eighteen and one twenty six year old Morales eighteen and
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: oh gets the biggest step up in his camp in
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: his career, though he will have a two inch height
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: advantage and a seventh inch reach advantage yeah, take it away.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, does Brady have success wrestling? I think that's
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: what it comes down to.
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if he's gonna win, he's definitely gonna have to.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: He is a good boxer, he's solid striker, but in
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: this fight he has to wrestle. But if he wins,
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: he's gonna put up a big score. I would guess
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: over one hundred points. So I do like Brady here.
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: Well really I would prefer him too. I would start
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: with a four star on Brady, two star Morales. But
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: I was on I was on YouTube, and uh, the
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: UFC posted, like a pole, who's gonna win this fight,
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: Sean Brady or Michael Morales? And I clicked Sean Brady
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: and it's like sixty nine percent of people pick Brady,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: and oh, I'm like, damn it. Morales is definitely gonna
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: win now, So like that's that's fucking with me, dude.
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: I'm like, now kind of like Morales a little bit
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: more because if the takedowns aren't happening, I don't think
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: he's gonna like the shots that are coming his way.
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: And Morales can knock him out in any round. And
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: it's almost like every time I see something like that
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: on their YouTube polls, it almost always goes. So I
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: am a lot more interested in Morales than I was yesterday.
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: But it's really just one of those fights where I
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: want to start with Brady because of his big time ceiling,
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: and if move down to Morales, if I if I
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: can't figure out a Brady lineup, but it's a fight
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: I want to be pretty heavy on because I think
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: it's a wrestling clinic from Brady or knockout from Morales.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: That's funny you said that in the sense of I
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: was feeling like when I saw this fight and all
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: the way up until beginning of this week, I was like,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: I'm in on Sean Brady, like the takedowns are too
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: much all of this, But it wasn't like the public
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: and all that, which is really funny you're saying that,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: But it's just something kept telling me more than I
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Dovee in this fight, like he's in he's like, what
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: an Ecuadorian national champion. Let me get this if national
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: freestyle wrestling champion in Ecuador grew up like wrestling, went
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: to judo striking, but like the dude, the dude has
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: wrestling background, he's much bigger, Yeah, he's much bigger than
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Sean Brady. I'm the feat Yeah, Sean Brady can box,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: but I mean Belall boxes nose in and knocked him
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: out when the wrestling wasn't working. Man, I've gone back
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: and forth, like I love Brady's style, it's so hard.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Nos he just made Leon it looks so easy. But
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Morales is a different cat. I'm so torn on this fight.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: I lean Brady for the sense of I think he
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: scores one hundred plus more in wins than Morales, but
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: you're also getting eight hundred dollars discount on Morales. With
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: that being said, what if he gets controlled the first
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: two rounds and gets a third round knockout because Brady's
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: tired sixty five?
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: Like, I don't know. I don't think Brady would would
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: tire in a three round fight. I just think he
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: would be he Maybe he gets a take down early,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: but he can't hold him down. Morales gets back up,
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: and then it's just like demoralizing for Brady. And then
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: the next takedowns harder than that first round that first
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: one was. The third one is harder than that second
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: one was. And then and then the motivation she starts
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: going down as well too. I man, if it wasn't
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: for that sixty nine Brady dude, I would have not
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: had these thoughts as much. But that has really shifted
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: me big time to Morales is gonna get a knock out.
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: It's almost like a foregone conclusion because sixty five percent
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: of the public.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: There you go. I won't I won't say anything else
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: on that. I totally get fade in the public can
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: be uh probably probably more times than not is the
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: right way to go, especially when it's such a wide
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: margin on such a closely line fight. But it's hard
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: for me to change all my exposures because of something
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: like that. But hey, it's some things are meant to
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: be some somethings throughout the week or whatever. Maybe it's
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: telling you something and trying to make you a hundred
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: tw twenty five big ones like our man Mitteus did
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: on Saturday. So yeah, tough fight. I'll get some of both.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: Though.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: It's a good mid tier fight that has to be
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: relatively capped with well Maker and Valentino Whaley fight right
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: in that same range. It's a good segue to the
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: co main events five round fights. Whaley is coming up
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: to fight Valentina chef Chenko minus one thirty four Valentina
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: plus one fourteen is Wayy plus one ninety five for
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish, plus three seventy five inside the
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: distance for Whaley, plus three to ninety for Valentina. So
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: you said at the top you'd be fine maybe stacking
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: this one, or maybe you didn't say that, maybe you
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: said you were, but you you said, yeah, okay, you
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: said that, and you prefer this fight to all fights
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: on the card. So do you like, does it have
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: to be three plus takedowns on both sides or like
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: mainly play out in the mat? Is that why you
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: see it? Because if it's on the feet, I just
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: don't see what separates this fight from all the other
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: ones if it stays on the feet.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think we're gonna have takedowns from both
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: sides and it is It's just gonna be a high
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: paced fight. I'm just really excited about the fight in general.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: And the prices are eighty two hundred and eight K.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get a hundred plus from either side,
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: so I want that winner in my lineup. But I
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: also think we could get one hundred and twenty five
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: to ninety or something like that, and maybe a stack
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: does work. So I am gonna handbuild around with some stacks,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: see see what I can do. But I have a
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: feeling I'm just gonna move to one side or the
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: other plan is to start with Chef Chenko, build a
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: lineup hopefully like it. Then I'm gonna duplicate that lineup,
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: put in it, put in Wiley. So maybe that makes
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: me have more Wiley lineups because I can just afford
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: more lineups with her that in that two hundred dollars.
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: But I'm gonna just be heavy on this fight with
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: my handbuilds. I'm gonna make it a rule that I
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: click on this every single time. If I make a
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: hundred and fift on Saber sim I won't make a rule,
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: but I will have them projected higher than everybody around
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: them to make it almost force them into close to
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: one hundred percent.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: If you had a rank Wellmaker, Waley Valentina, how are
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: you doing it.
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: Well Wellmaker? Because I have a big preference in that fight,
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: and then the other two I just don't even care about.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: I was in wins, what about in wins for well
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Maker versus Valentina versus Whaley. How do you average those
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: that are like, what's the medium there?
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, actually that would make me prefer
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: this fight more because I think that the winner from
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: this fight is gonna have a better chance at one
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: hundred and thirty than Wellmaker does. I think well Maker
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: is going to score one hundred and ten or something
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: like that. But either one of these ladies could put
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: up one hundred and ten, but with one hundred and
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: thirty type of upside, that only only Makachev, right, only
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: Makachev I think on this card could even match with
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: three rounds to work with. Probably Brady could could definitely
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: get up there, especially with five rounds, but three might
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: might not be enough. Yeah, I just I don't know.
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: I love this fight where I'd be okay with either side,
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: but I know who I want, and that will Maker fight.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. Did you pick a winner? Did
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: I miss it?
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: So? I did mine on Sunday. It was let me
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: look it up. It was minus one eighteen chef Chenko,
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: minus one oh two Zang. So at the end of it,
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: I said, I'd really just prefer the plus side if
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: I was gonna bet this fight, I don't care who
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: it is. I'd rather have plus money on either side,
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: but for now my pick is chef Chenko. Had I
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: looked at it right now and saw plus one point
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: fifteen on Zang, I would have picked a Zang as my.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Own fair enough. Yeah, that makes sense. I've been so torn,
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: I have no clue. I want similar exposure. In DFS.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: I picked Whaley man, she's been an absolute beast, but yeah,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: coming up with a vision Valentino will have the height and
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: reach advantage wrestling. It's more like trips technique finesse in
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Valentino versus just sheer power of Whaley. It seems such
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: a good fight. I'm very excited for it. We'll have
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: a lot in DFS. I do not think I will
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: be fight stacking personally, but I'm not against it. Like
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: I said to Brian, you can have five percent of
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: your portfolio with the fight stack if you feel like it.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: And that's probably with the field maybe overweight. I don't know.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: I never have a good gauge on how much the
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: field stacks, but fourteen fights, the more fights, the harder
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: it is the stack, and two five rounders also makes
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: a little difficult. And on top of all that, a
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: very strong mid range where eighty two in a loss
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: from Whaley, I don't think it's optimal. I don't because
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: I think well Maker Brady or Chepe or Sabatini. I
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: just think there's enough mid tier fights that Gregory Rodriguez
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: fight Price right there. I just think there's enough upside
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: surrounding them where eighty two and the loss would be phenomenal.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: The winner will probably score like one to nineteen, but
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think it'd be enough. However, we just saw
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Dern and Janderoba score what one twenty three and one
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: twenty or something like. If we get that, I mean, yeah,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: you're gonna need both girls. So if there was one
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: to fight stack, it is clearly this one with the pricing,
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: all right, the moment everyone's been waiting for. I appreciate
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: everyone hanging out before we get to this fight. All
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: we ask is like button and the subscribe button. It
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: helps us out a ton. And again, if you want
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: to join us at the Nation five days for nineteen
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: dollars using the coach Ship nineteen, NFL, MMA, College Football,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: PGA Showdown, NBA, NHL, so much going on this weekend,
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: we would love to have you massive prize pools in
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: a multitude of sports again. All MMA content will be
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: up tomorrow. Projections, ownership, slate, plan, fight rankings, et cetera. Also,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: our friends over at Splash Sports offering us a nice
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: deal using the code chhip it. You get a fifty
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: dollars deposit match when you deposit over there. You also
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: get one hundred percent payout boost on your first quick
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Picks entry, kind of like picking overs and unders for NFNBA,
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: NFL for props. Similar to like prize picks, draftings, Quick
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: Pick or Pick six whatever they got it called over there.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: Definitely check out Splash Sports. Getting a fifty dollars deposit
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: match and one one hundred percent payout boost on your
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: first entry is plus ev you cannot beat that. Main Events,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Islam Makachev comes up to one seventy two fight Jack
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: Della Madalena minus two to seventy is Islam plus two
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: thirty is Jack Della minus one sixty for this fight
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: to finish, plus one twenty five inside the distance for Islam,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred for Jack. So, looking at it, the
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: only line movement on the Islam's side. He was minus
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: two fifty Tuesday. Now he's minus two seventy I've never
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: picked a bit against Islam. I will not be doing
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: it this week. With that being said, most fights I
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: am fading everyone or fading the opponents of Islam. That
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: will not be the case this week. I think Jack
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: is very much live. If he can stuff takedowns like
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: he did, if he fights the same fight as he
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: did against ba Wall, he has a chance. He's live.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: Good in the clinch, keep it at distance. Stuff takedowns,
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: make it a war. But even in a war. I mean,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: DP fought his best fight against Islam in a war
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: and he found a way to do it. I just
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: think Kabib and the boys Islam's meant to do this stuff,
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: and he filled out perfectly for the division. I don't
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: think he's going to look small. With all that being said,
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: Jack Dell is a gamer. This is why we're MMA fans.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, two of the best in the world going
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: at it locked in a cage for twenty five minutes.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: I'm rock hard over here, bing Marley what we got
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: in this one?
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I gotta go with Islam in a fight where
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: he's clearly not going to have the striking edge and
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: he has to grapple heavily for DFS. I especially like him.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: I think he is going to put up a big
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: score here. It could be a first, second, third, really
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: any round submission. But even in a five round decision,
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: I expect one hundred and ten plus points from him,
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: which usually isn't his style. He's not a superactive type
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: of guy, but I think in this fight with five
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: rounds he would get there. I think a bigger word
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: would be like a second round submission, something like that,
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: and he scores ninety five points. That's what I don't want.
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: So I'm not going to force Islam into my lineups.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: I'm also not going to force Jack. But I with
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: ten lineups. Let's say if I make ten, I probably
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: don't even get to Jack. It's like all in on Islam.
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: Or maybe I just don't get to him in a
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: lineup or two. But the more lineups I start to make,
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: the more interested I am in JDM, because if one
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: hundred and seventy pounds is more of a struggle with
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: the wrestling than JD's going to pick this guy apart
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: and knock him out eventually. If Islam can't wrestle, I
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: don't think he can strike with JDM, so I think
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: it would be a knockout at some point, So definitely
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: almost all in type of fight prefer Islam. But it's
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: going to be a hell of a test to see
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: how good he is at one seventy because JDM is
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: one of the best strikers and in the UFC.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I agree with you. I think it's either
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Jack knocks him out or Islam probably submits him at
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: some point. I'm on the Islam side just because he's
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: that guy. He's he's never he hasn't proved me wrong
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: since since I've been Yeah, he is the twenty seven one.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: He got knocked out a long time ago before I
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: was playing MMA DFS, but continues to get the job done.
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: He is the best coach, one of the best coaches
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: in his corner. I think he sticks with the game
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: plan and I think he gets his hand raised again.
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: But what a fight we have. Wim be shocked if
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: he loses fourteen fights on tap two five rounders finger scroll.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: We keep all fourteen because if we do, Madison, Square,
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: Garden and US are in for a treat this weekend
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: against six pm Eastern UFC three twenty two. All content
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: will be up tomorrow, projections, ownership, slate plan, everything you
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: need for Saturday. Big Marley final thoughts.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: Now looking forward to Hopefully it's a fun one. Congress
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: to Mitasas one hundred and twenty five K. That's amazing.
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: Hopefully one of us can do it on this UFC card.
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: But good luck to you title, Good luck to everybody
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: listening ship it.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, good Congress to Mitayos one hundred and twenty five K.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: That is insane. We'll take any of us, will take
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: one third of that on the show watching in the
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: YouTube chat. Let's say for one third of that this Saturday,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: and we will be very happy campers. If it's not MMA,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: maybe it's college football, maybe it's NFL, maybe it's NBA,
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: maybe it's NHL. And again, Ship nineteen gets you over
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: to the nation for five days for just nineteen dollars.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: We would love to have you hit the like on
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: the way out upside at un subscribe button as well
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: and go out there and ship something this weekend for
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: Big Marley untitled town. Good luck, be safe,