Latest / Toadstool Sports / NFL Week 7 BEST BETS | Are the Vikings an Overrated 5-0?!

Transcript

NFL Week 7 BEST BETS | Are the Vikings an Overrated 5-0?! · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: What if I were to tell you that after this
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: NFL weekend is complete, we will have no undefeated teams
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: left in the NFL? Would you think I'm crazy for
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: saying that? What if I were to also tell you
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: that there will only be one winless team left in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the NFL after this weekend, and that's only because they're
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: not playing this weekend? Does that sound insane? We also
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: have another Europe game, and it's going to be in
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Paris or outside of Paris, even though Paris is under
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: siege by a bunch of rioters. So I have no
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: idea why the NFL is even allowing a game to
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: be played there or demanding that a game be played there,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: but it's happening. So we got to handicap it. Is
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: there any value in that game? I mean, I don't
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: think so, but maybe there's an angle there. I'll talk
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: about that coming up on the show.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby Look
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: at me.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: hard But he don't get the.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: Crown Hold on, hold on.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: Stay with me now.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I should get rid of that banner during the intro,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: but what's up everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: This is the NFL show for week seven. College football
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: did not go the way that I wanted to. A
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: bunch of my leans were correct. I'll talk about that.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I'll rant about it on on the morning show when
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I have more time to do it, I guess, even
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: though NBA is giving me more work to do. Dirty Sock,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out. I'm going to give out two
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: plays in the NFL here. I have a few other
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: opinions that I think are really strong. Maybe I'm being
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: too selective. One of the plays doesn't even have market
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: agreement on it, and I just do not care. It's
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: going to be a play for me. It's the right
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: way to go, I think. Let's do this. It's a
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: shorter NFL board this week because we have Buffalo, Chargers, Washington,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: and Jacksonville all on bye here. So fewer teams here
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: that are playing this week, of course. Teams coming out
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of the bye are Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota. So
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: that all should be taken into account coming into this week. Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit. Cincinnati, right?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So that's easy to remember. Two teams in each of
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: two divisions there. All right. We have the stupid Paris game,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: which is not actually in Paris. It's in Saint-Denis, France,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: which is like seven miles north of Paris, I think. Paris,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: of course, we know has all the violent rioting going on,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous and it's not going to be quelled.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to get political on the show, really.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to give out winners here on the show
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: and not push all these people away. But yeah, people
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: should not destroy property. Is that a crazy thing to say?
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: But apparently this game is happening, and apparently where it's
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: happening is outside of the riot zone because it's outside
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: of Paris. I don't know what we're doing here, but
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: it's happening. It's Steelers and Saints. This is... I haven't
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: given out a play in any of the Europe games
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: so far, and they are not easy to figure out.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's coming off a close win against, well, I clicked
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: on the wrong thing here, of course, against the Tampa
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers last week in Tampa. It went to overtime.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh legitimately won this game, though. And of course, you
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: remember last week, I was correct on 13 of 14
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: games last week, and the only one I got wrong
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: was the one that I thought was the best play, Dallas.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So that's ridiculous. Pittsburgh legitimately won this game, though. So
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: it's actually maybe a little bit of a misleading final result.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: They were actually losing this game 13-0, but they won
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the game yardage-wise. They won the game statistically, won the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: possession battle. So I don't even know how they were
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: losing last early in the game, to be honest. They
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: also won the turnover battle. Legitimate win for Pittsburgh, but
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I think beating Tampa Bay will not look very impressive.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: The main negative for Pittsburgh here is they do have
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: a potential look ahead, believe it or not, to the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Browns upcoming, because the Browns are leading the AFC North.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I know that sounds insane, and it's revenge for the Steelers.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: because they lost at the Browns, so they actually may
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: look ahead to the Browns. But playing a big game,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: an isolated game, NFL Network may actually be enough to
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: keep you focused here. The Saints are sitting at 2-4.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I've said that I don't think the Saints are really
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: as bad as that, because they almost beat the Lions.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: They did beat the Ravens, both those games on the road.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: They threw the game away against the Raiders, but since
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: then they really actually haven't played that well. although they
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: beat the Giants last week, but they almost blew a
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: massive lead against the Giants last week. They were winning
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: that game, I want to say 34-10 late in the game,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and it wound up 34-27. But, yeah, whatever you think
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: about that, yeah, the Saints' defense leaves something to be desired,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: and that may be the Steelers' path to winning this game.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: The Steelers can run the football with Jalen Warren and whatever,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: and I believe the biggest weakness of the Saints' defense
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: is the rushing defense, the run defense. So the Steelers
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: may be able to exploit that. Saints are going into
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: a bye after this week, but the positive for the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Saints is that They ended a three-game losing streak with
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a win last week, so sometimes that will give you
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: positive momentum. This game is really, really difficult to figure out, dude.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I think people will give the Saints a little bit
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: more credit for putting up a ton of points and
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: beating the Giants than they will give to Pittsburgh, playing
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: an ugly, low-scoring game that went into overtime and barely
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: getting by Tampa Bay. My slight lean here, my instinct
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: is to say Pittsburgh here, but I don't really love
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: the look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has 54% of the tickets,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: which is not a huge public skew by any means.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: 51% of the cash on New Orleans. But the money
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: looks like it actually did come in on Pittsburgh because
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: they opened two and a half and it moved through three.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It's now three with juice and three is a key number.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So when you see a line move like that, that
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: is a significant enough move. That means some money did
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: come in on Pittsburgh and do that. Really, really difficult
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: game to figure out. It's almost a game where I'd
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: say that maybe in like pools and whatever, depending on
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: what your number is that you're getting, if it's three
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and a half, maybe you take the points. If it's
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: two and a half, maybe you lay the points. Like
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: that's how little of an opinion I have on this game.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I can't figure it out. It's a pair. I mean,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a Paris game is such a bad idea. They need
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: to cancel all these international games, man. Um, as far
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: as the travel, I don't know if either team went
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: out there earlier or anything like that. Uh, Pittsburgh is
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: coming from the Eastern time zone and new Orleans, uh,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: was just, uh, Also in the Eastern time zone. So
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: both teams are coming from the Eastern time zone. So
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: that's not really a factor one way or the other. Yeah,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I really have almost nothing on that game. The first
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: game on the board for the 1 p.m. slate is
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Atlanta. This line moved significantly. San Francisco opened,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I thought I saw them open four in some places,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: but this looks like it opened three and a half.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: And now it does look like it's kind of still
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: just teetering on three here. But I can tell you
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that the reason why the line moved is because San
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Francisco has cluster injury problems at wide receiver. Mike Evans
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: got hurt again last week. He's on my fantasy team,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: so I am aware of that. He didn't come back
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: in the game last week, and he's going to be
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: out for this game, so Evans is not playing. The
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Steelers team is dealing with some issues right now, man.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Why did I say Steelers? I just talked about the Steelers. 49ers,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: they're dealing with some issues here, man. And I believe
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: one of their other wide receivers is also hurt, besides
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the ones that we know about. Debo, I think, is
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: out as well. I think that's what's going on here.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So, I mean, San Francisco's wide receiver core, their
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: wide receivers in this game are going to be Cooks
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and Kirk. And I mean, yeah, I mean, those guys
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: aren't that bad. I mean, we know them. They've been
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: around for a while, whatever. Kirk just came back. But
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: those guys, I don't think they played that much this year.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: They might take a while to get into rhythm and whatever.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: So the San Francisco offense is not. necessarily in the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: greatest shape right now, let's put it that way. Nick
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Bosa is still out. Dre Greenlaw will be back after
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: he was suspended last week, so at least there's that.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: And I guess Trent Williams will be playing on the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: offensive line, even though he's been hurt as well. But
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: if we look at the situation here, San Francisco, I mean,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: first of all, they're 6-0, right? So it looks way
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: too easy to play them here and lay below a
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: field goal, 2.5 yet. That looks way too easy to
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: play San Francisco here. 81% of the tickets are on
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: them and only 67% of the cash. So they're a
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: very public team. And as you saw in my intro,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going to argue against every single. undefeated team here,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: starting with San Francisco. I don't like the spot for them.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: They're coming up another win on Monday night, even though
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: they didn't really look good in that win against the Redskins.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I'm still calling them that. I got that game right.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: People giving me shit, you know, on the shorts and
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: whatever for that game. But I was correct. Washington covered.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco still got the job done. It was a
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: bad spot for them because they were coming off that
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: huge revenge win over the Seahawks. But still, any way
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: you look at this, they're coming off a Monday night game,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: so they're on a short week. They've got to go
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: to the East Coast for the first time this year.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: In fact, the only time San Francisco left the Pacific
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Coast all year was week one when they went out
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: to Australia. And since then, they've played every game on
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast and every game except for one at home.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: So.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: They've only played one game on the road. And yes,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: like a true road game. Yes, they won it against Seattle.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But it's not going to be that easy, dude. Having
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: to go and play early start time at the Falcons.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: And I know the early start time thing gets overrated
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Because I think it's not as difficult
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: for West Coast teams to go East than it is
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: for East Coast teams to go West for a late
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: night game. That's what I always say. But still, they're
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: going to be playing at like 10 a.m. on their
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: biological clock here, you know. But still, I don't think
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: that's that bad. But... Even so, I think this might
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: be a spot where San Francisco does kind of run
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: out of steam a little bit here, although I thought
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: last week was kind of that spot, too. And I
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: know they didn't cover, but this Atlanta team, I think
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit undervalued at 2-4 here because we
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: know they lost the first two games of the season
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: when they basically didn't have a quarterback. And since Penix
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: has been back, their offense has been way better overall.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: And their two losses are to the Ravens in an
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: overtime game here at home. And then they lost here
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: at home also last week to the Bears. You look
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: at the statistics in this game, yes, the Bears did
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: outstat them. But it was a little bit misleading still
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: because Atlanta had three turnovers in the game too. So
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: that obviously hurt them. Although the Bears hurt themselves with
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: a ton of penalties. So the Bears did still out-game
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: them by enough that the win margin that they had
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: was kind of accurate in the game anyway and the
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Bears dominated the time possession which seems very bizarre to
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: me like why would Atlanta I mean I guess they
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: had to abandon the run because they fell behind like
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: right out of the gate because you'd think that Atlanta
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: would run run run the football against Chicago right because
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: you want to keep Chicago's offense off the field Chicago's
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: defense isn't good so you think Atlanta would have been
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: running the football I would have still done that even
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: if I was down 14 to start the game you
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: could still come back from that by running the football
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: and Against that defense. But they abandoned the run. That
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: went poorly for them. I don't think they're going to
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: abandon the run here. Because I just don't know if
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has the offensive firepower. To get out to
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: a massive lead like that in this game. On the road.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So I lean Atlanta in this one. The market agrees
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: with it. It's not a strong opinion for me really.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah. I just think San Francisco. It's a tougher
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: spot for them. With the travel cross country. Quick turnaround time.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has extra time off. Because at least one extra
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: day off. And they're staying at home. And the line
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: just looks like they're begging you to play San Francisco here.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: The 6-0 team against the 4-2 team. And I know
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: in the first game I was slightly leaning towards the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: 4-2 over the 2-4. But, yeah, I like Atlanta in
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that game. All right. Liz, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Mr.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Pinsey, what's up? Code? Yeah, that's what I used to do. Dude, yeah,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the toad of code. I used to be that. All right,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: next game up. This game almost made the cut for me.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I like this game a lot, actually. Cleveland and Tennessee,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: but maybe I'm being too selective. I really like the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Titans in this game, and the oddsmakers are basically telling
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: you what you need to know here. They opened the
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: line Cleveland 1.5, and some spots have it hovering around
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: 2 now. It's still a pick-the-winner price. And you've got
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: a 4-2 Cleveland team. It's leaving their division against a 1-5,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I think, Titans team. You know who the public is
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: going to be on, as hilarious as it is. The
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: public is going to be all over the Cleveland Browns
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: in this game. And like I said two weeks ago
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: when I gave out a play on the Jets against them,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: it's the Cleveland Browns, okay? I mean, this Browns team,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: they're not... As good as their record indicates, they're only,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I think they're barely, they barely have
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: a positive point differential this year. This is not that
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: good of a Cleveland Browns team, dude, okay? I know
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's awful, but we're still talking about the Cleveland Browns
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: being favored on the road against anybody seems absurd to me.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: And Cleveland could be in another letdown spot. They're coming
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: up with another big win over the Ravens. And you
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: remember what the situation was when they lost to the Jets. Yeah,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: they were going on the road after beating the Steelers,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: and they had the Ravens on deck. So they were
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: in a divisional sandwich playing a lesser AFC team that
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: they weren't going to pay attention to. Well, look at
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: what spot they're in this time. They just beat the Ravens,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: and they play the Steelers again next. So they're also
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: in a divisional sandwich here that looks eerily like that
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Jets game. The only reason why I don't want to
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: do this is Tennessee just pulled off a nice upset themselves.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: They upset the Colts as, like, touchdown underdogs, and I
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: usually just don't want to play on teams that pull
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: off a big upset like that. Nice big divisional win,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: so you could debate that they're in a letdown spot
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: as well here, but that was their first win of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the season. A lot of times, a winless team like that,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: when they finally get that first win... They don't get overconfident,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: and they actually just have some momentum moving forward from that.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So this is really, really close to making the cut
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: for them. I think the only drawback here is you
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: could maybe see Tennessee being in a letdown here, but
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is way worse for the Browns.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I think the public is misreading what these two teams
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: really are. I think these teams are both still bad.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is getting 85% of the tickets, which I think
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: might be the highest ticket percentage on the entire board.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Who would ever think that, that the Browns are the
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: most public side on the entire board? But that is
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the case, it looks like. 75% of the cash on them,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: so less of the money. So the money seems to
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: agree with me on this. This is an ugly low total, too,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: with money coming in towards the under 37, basically, in
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, I mean, this might be a real
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: ugly game with not a lot of scoring. Nobody's going
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: to want to watch this game. I wouldn't recommend it either,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: but I do think it's a strong, I think Tennessee
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: is a strong side in this game. I do. So
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: that one is going to go in my contest entry
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: at the very least. I like it. This next game up,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I like more. So, you know, we know what it's
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: time for. You want to know what I'm betting? Bring
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: on the hate, baby. Nobody's going to want this one.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts plus 6.5 against the Minnesota Vikings. That's what
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: we're going to do here. I love this as a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: spot here. I think it has so many angles that
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I look for going for it. Love this thing. Maybe
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: we can wait on this. I would say wait on
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: this because you might be able to get a 7
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: on this, and obviously the 7 is the key number,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the touchdown. But just right away, the fact that you
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: know the Vikings are going to be the public side here.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: They're undefeated. And the fact that the oddsmakers opened it
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: up at six and a half and they haven't moved it,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: even though the public is coming in on Minnesota. I
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: say it every week. I'm going to say it again
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: right now. That should be an indicator to you that
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: the underdog is actually the right side here because the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are just fine with getting all this money. They
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: knew that was going to happen. By putting up a
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: number below a touchdown, they knew they were going to
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: get a bunch of Minnesota tickets. They're not idiots. They
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: have to know that. And they're just okay with it, basically.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: They're taking a stand here. And again, you know that
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a popular teaser, too. The public
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: is going to come in and tease Minnesota down to
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: just win the game, and the oddsmakers are not trying
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: to kill that. So they're not afraid of that teaser.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: So they basically are telling you that there's a decent
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: chance that Indy is going to win this game. And
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I agree. Indy's coming off that ugly game last week.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: They lost to the Titans, which I just pointed out.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: And I like teams to bounce back after horrible losses
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: like that. So I think that is the spot that
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Indy's going to be in here. Going on the road, sure,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: it might be helpful. to get out of home, just
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: go on the road after an ugly loss like that.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Really bad loss. I mean, you can't really get a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: worse loss than losing to a winless team. But if
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, completely misleading. Which,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: by the way, this is the other thing that keeps
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: me off of Tennessee here a little bit, is Tennessee
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: was still horrific in this game. There's no way they
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: actually should have won this game. Indy outgained them 399-186.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: So the fact that Indy lost this game is mystifying.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: They completely dominated this game. They dominated possession, dominated first downs,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: dominated total yardage. They lost the turnover battle. I think
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: that's really what did it. And Indy blew a 13-0
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: lead in the game as well. So I think after
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: a game like that, misleading loss and a really bad-looking loss, yeah,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: it all screams that you've got to play on Indy
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to bounce back here. Because again, they were way better
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: than The scoreboard makes it look in this game, and
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: it looks real bad. It was a really bad result.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: So I think they're in a very positive spot here
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. They're all defense and no offense, dude.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: This Minnesota offense is still pathetic, okay? They put up
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: 15 against the Dolphins. I mean, come on, man. And
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: they basically, even though they put up 23 against the Buccaneers,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: which still isn't even really that good, their offense did
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: almost none of that. They had a punt return touchdown
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: in the game, and they didn't even run an offensive
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: snap in the red zone in that game. This is
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: still a putrid Minnesota offense. And yeah, they had one
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: really good-looking win against the Packers. That win also wasn't
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: actually what it looked like, as the Packers completely outgained
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in this game. I have no clue how Minnesota
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: won this game by 17, other than... Packers, a couple
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: of turnovers, and a ton of penalties. Yeah, this Minnesota
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: offense still reeks, dude. It is really, really bad. And
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the spot is really bad for them as well because,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: as I mentioned, they're coming out of a bye. And
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the worst possible time to have a bye is when
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: you're undefeated. You do not want to have a bye
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: when you're undefeated because everything is working for you. You
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: have nothing to fix during the bye. Yeah, so I
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: think this bye is going to be a complete momentum stopper.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: And it gets worse for Minnesota because look who they
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: have to play next. Yeah, they got a divisional game
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: up next against the Detroit Lions. That's a huge game.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: So I think they might look past this Indy team here,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: especially seeing what they did last week. Everything about this
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: spot screams Colts to me. We're taking the Colts. I
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: would wait, see if maybe you get the 7 to
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: come up on this. Even if you don't, I would
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: still take it at 6.5. Minnesota is going to be
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the public side, 67% of the tickets, I know right
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: now 69% of the cash, that's not a huge disparity
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: there though, and it's gone up from 5.5 to 6.5,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: and even better for us, we have a low total here, 41, 41.5,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: so getting almost a touchdown with a pretty low total
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: like that. Makes it even better. Each point's going to
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: be worth more. And as I was pretty much already
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: alluding to, this Minnesota team, they do not have an
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: offense that you want to lay points with. They just don't.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Their offense sucks. They're all defense. Their defense is elite.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: We know that. But an elite defense is not enough
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: to cover a touchdown. You know what I mean? I mean,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: in certain flukes, yeah, now that I said that, they're
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: going to have three defensive touchdowns or whatever. Yeah, whatever. No, no.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: You take Indy in this spot based on everything that
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: I just said. I've been doing this for a long time, man. And, yeah,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: when I saw this spot, I was like, yeah, Indy
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: is the strongest player of the week. Like, there's no
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: doubt in my mind. Yeah, Indy plus the points. Mark Clare,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: what's up, man? Yes, that's what the ladies say. Saturday
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: night with Toad, why not? You have to settle, man,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: sometimes in dealing with me. All right, Miami at the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. You're not going to like what I
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: have to say about this game either. And, you know,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: at the top of the show, I said that I
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: think the one winless team that's playing this week has
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a chance to win. That's the Miami Dolphins. Yeah, I
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: do like the Miami Dolphins in this one, at least
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: to cover, because they're in the inverse spot that Minnesota's
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: in here. Miami... They're coming out of a bye, but
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: they went into a bye with an 0-5 record as
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: opposed to a 5-0 record, and I think that's exactly
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: when you do want to have a bye because nothing
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: is working for you. So you have that extra week
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to fix a bunch of shit, and you might say, well,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Miami's a dead team, so they might be unfocused. It's
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: still early in the season, man. You don't want to
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: be winless. I mean, yeah, people will talk about tanking
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: for the first draft pick. We don't even know who's
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: going to be the number one draft pick at this
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: point so far, okay? And they're not thinking about that
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: right now. Like, it's embarrassing to be a winless team.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: They're playing a divisional opponent here. I think this is
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: going to be a game they will try to win.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: And the Jets are not good, really. Even though I
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: know I've said the Jets aren't as bad as maybe
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: people think they are. Maybe they're not as bad as 2-4. Yeah,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: they played pretty well against the Packers. I think it's
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the Lions. But the Jets, I mean, they're coming off
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent performance against the Patriots where they came
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: to within seven here. So, they cover the seven and
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: a half here. So, big divisional game for the Jets
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: last week while Miami had the week completely off and
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: had two weeks to prepare for this. The Jets had
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a bigger game last week against the Patriots and hung
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: around in that game. They didn't really have a chance
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: to win, but, and they made it cosmetic, I think,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: with a field goal at the end to cover, but
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: They were kind of hanging around in that game. It
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: was still a one-score game multiple times, I think, in
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. So I think the Jets coming off
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: that game could be in a little bit of a
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: hangover spot because they played pretty well. I think it's
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: a positive buy spot for the Dolphins. Yeah, I say
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: we take the Dolphins in this one if we're going
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: to play. This one doesn't make the cut for me,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: but I think it will probably show up in my
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: contest entry because I need five games to put in there.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: This one is one of the stronger opinions I have.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: I think it's less strong than Tennessee, though. Jets are
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: definitely a public side. 69% of the tickets, 56% of
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. They dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 already,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: so the money has already come in, driven this number down,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: even though it's not any key numbers there. The money
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: is definitely fading a public Jets side here. And as
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: much as I said, yeah, the Jets are not that horrible,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: they're still also not good. And should the Jets really
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: be laying points like this? It's another situation that I
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: look for where a team goes from being a big underdog,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: like the Jets were last week, to now being almost
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: that size favorite in the next week. You don't want
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: to have point spread swings like that with one team
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: like that, man. So, yeah, this is a spot to
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: fade the Jets. The Dolphins are the right side in
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: that game as far as I'm concerned. I would take
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the points in that one. I like it. Cody, you're
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: betting oil futures. I don't know, man. It sounds like
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: something maybe a Fed would say. Cody, are you in
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: one of the agencies, the three-letter agencies there? Do you
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: have inside information about the oil there? Sports betting is
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: what I do, man. It's my game, and it's been
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: a winner for me, so that's what I do. It's
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: not for everyone. All right. Next game is Tampa Bay
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: and Carolina still in the 1 p.m. slate here. Tampa's
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: a one-win team. The big thing that you have to
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: worry about in this game is Baker Mayfield might be
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: coming back in this game, so you have to be
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: aware of that in this game. If he does, this
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: line's going to move because even though I don't think
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Mayfield is that good, I think he's overrated. He's obviously
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: an upgrade over Jalen Daniels. This Tampa offense with Daniels,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: They haven't been good, okay? I know they were able
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: to beat Dallas, but Dallas' defense is miserably bad, like
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: the worst defense in the league, okay? So even Carolina's
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: defense is considerably better than that. If Mayfield comes back,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: I do actually think it'll be a positive for Tampa,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: even though, you know, I talk about the reverse injured
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: player spot and how sometimes when that star player comes
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: back or whatever, the team will get a little bit
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: complacent and maybe take their foot off the gas and
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: you won't get as much line value. I agree that
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: you won't get as much line value necessarily on Tampa here,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: but they're a 1-5 team right now, man. So even
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: with Mayfield coming back, do you really think they're going
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: to take their foot off the gas? It's not even
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: on the gas right now. They just lost to Pittsburgh
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: last week, although that was an overtime game, as I mentioned,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: where Tampa blew. a double-digit lead early in the game.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: But still, I don't know if they consider that game
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: to be that big necessarily against the Steelers. This game, also,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: there's another big reason why Tampa will be focused in
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: this game. This is revenge. Even though Tampa beat Carolina
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: in the last game of the season last year, Tampa
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: still missed out on the playoffs because Carolina, I think,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: beat them earlier in the season, and Carolina won the
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: division basically by default because it wound up a three-way
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: tie because the Falcons made a mess of everything and
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: beat the Saints in the last week and got into
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: a three-way tie. So the three-way tiebreaker actually gave Carolina
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the division instead of Tampa, even though Tampa beat them.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: So I do think this is like a legitimate revenge
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: game for Tampa because when you're this Tampa team that
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: has won this division, whatever it is, like three, four
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: years in a row, and then all of a sudden
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you got knocked off that pedestal by the Panthers last year,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: you're going to have your eye on the Panthers this year.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: You're going to want to beat them. So I think
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: that is a motivator for Tampa here. I'm not saying
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: that Carolina is going to be unfocused. I don't think
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: they will. But Carolina, I mean, they're coming off a
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: couple of nice-looking wins here against the Lions, the Eagles.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: So I think this Carolina team might be a little
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: bit overvalued coming into this. And they do have to
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: turn around and play a Thursday night game against the Packers.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: And sometimes when teams have that Thursday night game, there
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: is a potential look-ahead there where they might be looking
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: ahead to that game. I'm not sure that's going to
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: happen here because this is a divisional game. But if
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: you're going to overlook the Buccaneers... It's going to be
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: at a time where they're 1-5, and you have a
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game against a decent team like Green Bay
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: on deck. I think Tampa is the right side in
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: this game, is what I'm saying, which you could have
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: figured that out probably. Carolina's the public side, 73% of
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them, only 63% of the cash. They
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: dropped from 3.5 down to 3%. If you like Tampa Bay,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you've got to try to at least get three on this.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: That would be, obviously, the better move because you want
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: that key number there if you can. I don't know
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: if that indicates that Mayfield is coming back or not
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: because you'd think that if he's coming back, the line
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: would move more significantly. I think he is a big upgrade.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Right now, he's questionable. Todd Bowles is saying he's ready,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: so to me... I think it's more than 50% that
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: he is going to play, but the oddsmakers know the most,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: and they really haven't moved this line that much. So
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: the question is, are they just not moving it because
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: they really can't? Because Tampa's 1-5? Or do they not
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: consider Mayfield to even be that much of an upgrade anymore?
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know. As much as I don't think Mayfield
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: is good, I think he definitely is an upgrade from Daniels. So, yeah.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Whether it's Mayfield or not, I think I still like
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Tampa in this game. It's just a matter of what's
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: the best number you're going to be able to get
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: on that. It's not going to make the cut for
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: me or anything, but I think Tampa's the right side
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: in that one, plus the points. By the way, the
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Miami and Jets game has a pretty low total as well, 39.5,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: so talking about taking the points in that game, yeah,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the underdog makes sense in that game for that reason, too.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: The Miami side, I mean, because the total is so low.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Not expected to be a lot of points in that one.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: All right, as we... Continue with the 1 p.m. we
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: have a big divisional matchup between Cincinnati and Baltimore Cincinnati's
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye now the question is did
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: they did they go into the bye on a good
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: note or a bad note well I would say it
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: was a bad note. I mean, they squeaked by Miami,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: beat them by seven, so that's not exactly a great
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: note to go to the bye on. They ended a
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: losing streak by doing that, so I think the bye
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: mostly is going to be helpful for Cincinnati here. They're
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: not going to overlook the Ravens. This is a big
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: divisional game here, so I think the extra rest will
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: be helpful, in my opinion, to Cincinnati here. Baltimore, though,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: they just lost to the Browns last week, so you've
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: got to expect them to be focused here as well.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: lamar jackson is out again so it becomes an injured
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: player theory again for baltimore which i'm going to mention
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: again when your player goes down like that when your
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: star player goes down the line has to adjust and
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: it usually over adjusts and that was the angle that
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: i used with the ravens against the falcons i believe
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: right uh with tyler huntley in there i thought that
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: was a motivator for uh for Baltimore. And I thought
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: we were getting way too many points there. We're getting
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: three and a half points. The line moved like five
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: points just because Lamar Jackson was out, which there's not
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that much of a downgrade from Jackson to Huntley, dude.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Huntley's basically just a poor man's Jackson. Like he plays
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: a similar style. Jackson just seems like he's never healthy, dude.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: And Huntley knows the system. He's been on the Ravens
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: for the majority of the last like Five years, probably,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: I want to say something like that. He was only
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: not on the Ravens for a very brief stint there,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: so he knows the system, even though they have a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: new coach there now. So, yeah, Huntley is not that bad.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: But will the Ravens actually consider that Browns game to
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: actually have been big? Are we at the point where
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: people actually put weight into games against the Browns now
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: because they're winning this division? It's hard to say. This
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: is a difficult game to figure out, dude. This is
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: one of the more difficult ones on the board here.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: The money's indicating on Cincinnati, and my instinct said Cincinnati
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: at first. 71% of tickets, 85% of the cash on them,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: but that was because Baltimore opened a 2.5-point favorite, and
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that was when Jackson was not ruled out at that point.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Now that he's ruled out, you can see yet again
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the line moved like five points, and now Cincinnati's a
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: three-point favorite. I don't think you can lay that. I don't.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: So at this number, I think it is an overreaction.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: So I think at the three, I think I would
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: have to start going back the other way and leaning
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: towards Cincinnati. the Baltimore side here. I think this is
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: one where it all depends on the number. If you're
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: in a pick-and-pull where the line's locked early and you're
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: getting Cincinnati at plus 2.5 or something, I would say
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: take Cincinnati. But if you're going to bet this game
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: right now, this number, I would say Baltimore plus 3.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: I know that sounds crazy, but the number means a lot, man.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: I know I focus on sides, you know what I mean?
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I really love a situation that a particular team is in,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: but you still... You can't ignore the number, you know
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: what I mean? In this case, there's a huge difference
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: between these two numbers, right? So even though, yeah, I mean,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: I would agree that whoever wins this game is likely
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: going to cover, so it does kind of come down
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: to essentially sort of picking who's going to win this game.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: It's a tough call. It really is. But again, I
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: think if you're getting those additional three, I think the
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Ravens might be the lean going against the public. And yeah, again,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: if you have a pick and pull where the Cincinnati
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: side is the dog, that might be the way to
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: do it. Because at least you know you're getting line
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: value by playing that stale line there. You know what
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: I mean? Difficult, difficult game to figure out, dude. The
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: final 1 p.m. game is the New York Giants against Houston.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: The Giants, I think, are kind of a public underdog
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: in this game, but even though I say that public
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: underdogs are red flags, I think the only way to
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: play this game is to play the Giants plus the
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: points here. Now, I know the Giants are not They're
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: not as good as their record looks. I mean, Jackson
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Dart hasn't played since early in Week 2 pretty much,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: or not pretty much, definitely. So he's out. As I mentioned,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I think Burns, one of their best defenders, is out
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: for the year. J.J. McCarthy is going to start this game. Now,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: he does have some experience, obviously, in the NFL, most
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: of it bad. But he looked good last week, so
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: maybe you pair him with a coach like Harbaugh, maybe
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: he's actually going to be good. I don't know, dude.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think you'd really draw that much from what
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: he did last week because Winston wasn't cutting it, and
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: they were losing that game bad, so they put McCarthy in.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: And I think it was sort of what happened there
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: was the Saints weren't ready to defend against the McCarthy offense.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: They had not really planned for it, and they had
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: such a huge lead, I think they took their foot
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: off the gas. You know what I mean? So there
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: was a lot of garbage scoring from the Giants here,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: so I wouldn't put that much weight into that. And
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the Texans, at least in theory, have a better defense
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: than the Saints do here. But... All that being said,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: I still think the Giants are the right side in
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: this one because the Giants are coming off an ugly
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: game against the Saints where they lost. They're going down
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: to Houston, but Houston obviously has a way more difficult
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: travel spot because they're traveling back from Europe. They were
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: just in London, and not only were they in London,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: but they had a massive, massive divisional win against the Chargers.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: I'm looking ahead. I was about to talk about them
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: having the Chargers next. The Jaguars, excuse me. A huge
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: win for the Texans on a stage like that in
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: London against the Jags, who won the division last year.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: That was a monster, monster win. And it looks even
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: better because it was a high-scoring win, 34-31. So I
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: think at the very least, the way you have to
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: handicap this game is this has to be a letdown
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: spot for Houston coming off of that. And they're playing
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: an out-of-conference game here, coming back home off of that,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: having to travel from London as well. I don't like
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: how any of that looks. I don't like any of that.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: And yes, like I said, they do have the chargers next. Uh,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: although I, I think Houston has been the team to
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: beat the chargers, uh, each time they face them in
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: the playoffs recently or whatever, but, Yeah, they're not going
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: to look ahead to the winless Chargers. That's not going
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: to happen, but I think the handicap here is this
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: is a letdown spot plus ridiculous travel, and the London
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: travel back home has not worked out well. Teams used
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: to get a bye this week, but they basically stopped
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: doing that, and since then, the teams that are forced
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: to have to play next week rather than voluntarily doing it,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: it seemed like when they voluntarily did it, they got
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: ready for it, and they actually didn't play that bad,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: but Since they're forced to not have a bye now
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: coming off of it, these teams have not done well.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Last year, this year, most of the teams coming back
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: from the London situation, they've done bad. So, yeah, I
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: would have to lean to the Giants in this one, man.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Houston's a huge favorite here. They're up to a 10-point
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: favorite now, almost 10.5, up from 9.5. And this is
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: a low total again, too, at 42.5. So do you
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: want to lay double digits with Houston in this spot
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: with a low total like this? Hell no. I would
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: say no. Even though the public looks like they're on
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: the Giants, 73% of tickets on them, 78% of the cash.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I've heard some professionals like the Giants here as well.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I do as well. I lean Giants in this one,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: plus all those points. I think it's the only... thing
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: that makes sense as far as how to play this game.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: And also, by the way, let's not overlook the fact
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: that Houston's 0-3 at home this year. And you're asking
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: them to win by double digits here in this one.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: So that seems like quite an ask. And yeah, I
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: know they lost to Josh Allen and Joe Burrow at
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: home in the first two weeks. But they also lost
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: to the Dallas Cowboys here. And the Cowboys weren't even
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: in a good spot. And Houston lost that game. So
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: this Houston defense... They've been faltering a little bit, man.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: This vaunted Houston defense. I don't know. Houston just hasn't
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: been as good as they were expected to be, and
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: their offense over the last few years just hasn't really
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: been that good. So combine that with now Houston's... Houston
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: was being carried by their defense the last year or two,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: and now that's not even playing that well. So yeah,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I like the Giants. The other thing of note is
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh benched Skadaboo because of his fumble issues. Harbaugh took
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: him out of the game. He basically didn't even use
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: him last week. So I think he will play this week.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I think Harbaugh is just sending a message. And I
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: kind of like that. When you get a coach that's
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: going to lay the hammer down and not allow any
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: of this bullshit, you know what I mean? That's going
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: to get the team focused. Like, oh shit, this guy's
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: not going to tolerate any of this bullshit. You know
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: what I mean? I think that's good. So I like
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: that Harbaugh is... You know, cracking the whip here. We
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: know that he did stuff like that when he was
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: with Baltimore, like taking all the video games away from
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: them at one point either last year or the year
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: before that. I remember talking about that on the show.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I don't remember if that worked in their favor or not,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: but I still like moves like that because it gets
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: your team focused on the actual game, right? Like when
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: shit's not going well. You got to lay the hammer down, man,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: as a coach. And I think the players are going
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: to respect you more if you do that. You know
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: what I mean? As long as you do it in
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the right way. So, yeah, that's what I think there.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Denver at Arizona as we get to the 4 o'clock
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: games here. Denver is not in a good spot here
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: at all as they're coming off of beating the Chargers
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: in a divisional matchup. They turned around and won on
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: Thursday night last week in overtime against the defending champs,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. We got that game right as a play
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: on the show. Denver blew the lead in that game
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: and at least wound up still coming through for us
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: there huge win and look who Denver has on deck
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: next week yeah they got the Kansas City Chiefs which
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: is a huge divisional game but it's also going to
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: be a big revenge game now because the Chiefs embarrassed
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Denver in week one to open the season which I
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: think was a Monday night game too so this is
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: clearly a sandwich spot that Denver is in horrible spot
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: for Denver playing a road out of conference game by
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: the way which is the Game that means the absolute
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: least on a team's schedule. It has the least impact
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: on tiebreakers at the end of the season. It's a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: weird travel spot, so why do I not want to
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: give out a play? on Arizona here? Because this looks
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: like a horrible, horrible spot for Denver. Yeah, it is.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: My problem with it is Arizona is coming off a
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: really good win themselves, upsetting the Rams as a double-digit underdog.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Huge divisional upset for Arizona there. I can't I can't
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: do it. I can't make it a play. But I
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: will lean Arizona in this game, though. I think the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: spot for Denver is even worse. Arizona is coming off
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: a monster win, but the one good thing for Arizona
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: is that might sort of be like a right-the-ship type
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: of win where they ended a four-game losing streak. And
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: they have not had an easy schedule. I mean, they
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: played the 49ers, the Seahawks, the Lions. Not an easy
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: schedule whatsoever for Arizona. So they might be a little
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: bit better than people think they are. And if you
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: look at what's going on here, it looks too easy
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to play Denver, I think. At a 4, 4.5 point
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: number here. Not really that high of a total.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: 43.5.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: 63% of the tickets are on Denver. So they're the
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: public lean in this game. But 55% of the cash
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: on Arizona. I am still going to lean taking the
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: points with the Cardinals in this one. I think the
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: spot is worse for Denver than it is for Arizona.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: And yeah, that's what I got on that game. I think, yeah,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: did I hit every aspect of that game? I guess
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: I did. Oh, I was going to look at the
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: stats for the Cardinals-Rams game. The Cardinals did actually out-game
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the Rams, which, you know... If you consider that to
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: be a red flag for the Rams, okay, maybe, but
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I am not going to consider it to be one,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: as you'll see shortly. The next game is one of
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: the biggest games, which I thought this was going to
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: be a night game, but it's not. Green Bay and Detroit,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: this is one of the 425 p.m. games. This is
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: a big divisional game, man. Both teams should get up
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: for this. Green Bay... They're coming off a couple of
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: nice-looking wins in front of primetime audiences, I believe. No,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: one was a Sunday afternoon game, I guess, crushing the Bears.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Then they turned around and they beat me. They were
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the only team that beat me last week in my
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: 13-1 pick-em entry last week. Green Bay took out my
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: best bet of the week, Dallas. Went 2-1 with my
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: actual bets, which sucks when you go 13-1 with all
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: the picks. But yeah, Green Bay looked pretty good again
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: in beating Dallas. Or maybe Dallas just doesn't look good.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: But still, nice win for Green Bay in primetime. Now
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: they're going to go back out on the road, play
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: the Lions. Green Bay has not done that well on
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: the road so far. I mean, even though I said
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: that they did dominate the Vikings in that first game,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: despite what the scoreboard looks like, they still did lose
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: that game. Then they didn't play that well on the
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: road against the Jets today. or the Buccaneers barely getting
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: by both those teams. So Green Bay might struggle a
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: little bit here going to Detroit, and Detroit, they're undefeated
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: at home, and also they're coming out of a bye.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: So they might use that bye for some extra focus here,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: get ready for this game. They're definitely not going to
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: overlook Green Bay. Maybe you could argue that it's an
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: issue that Detroit did go into the bye on a
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: good note. They blew out the Cardinals going into the bye.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that would worry me a little bit about
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: will the bye... have its full effectiveness when they went
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: into the buy-in, kind of a good note. Either way, though,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I would still prefer Detroit in this game with the
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: extra rest here. Detroit also favored, and they're sitting at 3-2,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: whereas Green Bay's 4-2. Detroit, believe it or not, in
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: last place right now in the NFC North, and they
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: were the team that I gave out a heavy lean
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: on their over-team win total this year. Well, It'll help
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: that case if they get this one done here. They've
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: won both their home games so far, but against the
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Saints and the Jets, the Packers are better than those
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: two teams. But still, the Packers... I don't think the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Packers are as good as they've looked so far, man.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: They've had some issues. Their front seven's not good, and
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: that's going to be a problem with the Packers having
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: kind of a decimated front seven when you've got a
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: team that has an elite offense. Detroit's problem is their defense.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Their offense is elite, and they can run the football
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: with Gibbs there and whatever, so that might help. Packers,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: by the way, are getting Josh Jacobs back. He's on
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: my fantasy team, but I don't think I want to
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: play him this week. I have a lot of running
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: backs anyway on my team. Jacob's coming back from being suspended, essentially,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: for an assault. But I think it's going to take
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Jacobs a little while to ramp up because while he
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: was suspended, he wasn't able to practice. So I think
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: coming in after not having played for so long, I
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: don't think he's going to hit the ground running, pun intended.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: I think he'll be good eventually, but right out of
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: the gate, I don't necessarily think so. And I don't
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: think he's going to immediately solve all the problems that
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the Packers have had running the football so far. Because
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: I think running backs are somewhat plug and play in
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: the NFL, and their rushing attack has been non-existent. Their
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: offensive line is absolutely terrible. Green Bay, so that's one
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: huge problem with Green Bay there. They have problems on
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: both lines, actually, which is kind of a problem. You
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: want to be good in the trenches, and Green Bay
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: really isn't. Now, I will say the Green Bay, they
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: do technically qualify as being the better defense getting points here.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: And sometimes that is the way that I look, but
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: that's not the way I'm going to lean here. I
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: would only lean towards Detroit in this one. The money
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: seems to agree. 52% of the tickets, 71% of the
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: cash on them. They opened three and they have ticked
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: up to three and a half. So it has gone
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: up a little bit and off of that key number
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: three onto the three and a half. So, you know,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: not an insignificant move, I will say. So, yeah, I
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: lean Detroit in that one. All right, next game up
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: is my only other play I'm going to give out,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: and I think the market doesn't even agree with this one,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: and we're getting a better number on it now, too,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: so the money's coming against it. I just don't even care.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I do not care. This is a situational play that
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: looks really good to me.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: I also don't know why my screen looks like it's
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: still kind of... I don't know. Do I have too
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: many programs open? I don't have too much open right now.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I have an antivirus. I really don't have a whole
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: lot open. I stopped using Descript pretty much, so I
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: have that close. I don't know why I see everything
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: kind of shaky here. Basically, the only things I really
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: have open are this and then the browser that I'm sharing,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: so I don't. Yeah, those are like pretty much it.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't know what's going on
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: with that. But yeah, this is a play for me.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to lay the Rams minus three here. It's
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: down to three with some juice. You have to lay
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: about minus 115 on this. But obviously, I think that's
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: preferable to laying three and a half. I think paying
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit of juice to lay the three and
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: not have to lay the hook, I think is good.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: But I still think this line is shortchanging the Rams, dude.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: The Rams are sitting at 2-4, and everybody's questioning the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Rams completely. People are saying the Rams aren't even good anymore.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: And we're only like six weeks removed from people talking
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: about how the Rams should win the Super Bowl this year.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know they have some injuries, Miles Garrett, whatever.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: This Rams defense is still decent, and their offense is
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: still decent as well. This is still one of the
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: better teams in the NFL, dude. And the Osweggers are
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: telling you they're the better team here significantly. They're laying
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: three on the road here. And it's in Las Vegas.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: And Vegas, they don't get a lot of home crowd
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: support in Vegas. Their home advantage is one of the weakest.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: And I think it's going to be worse here because
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: LA is really close to Vegas. And the Rams are
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: like the team in LA as far as the NFL
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: is concerned. So you know a lot of the Rams
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: fans are going to go to this game. And there
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: are probably a lot of LA fans just in Vegas anyway.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: So I think the Rams are going to have a
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: huge amount of crowd support in this one. So I
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: think that's going to be... an advantage for the Rams
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: here as well, but the spot sets up really nicely
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: for them. They should be in a huge bounce back
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: spot coming up that hideous game against the Cardinals. Puka
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Nakua might be out, so you do have to take
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: that into account here. I know he's a big time
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: offensive weapon. He's questionable right now, but I still like
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: this even if he is out. He didn't practice Friday,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: but he might still play. I mean, I have no idea.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, if he can go, the Rams are going
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: to have him go out there. You know, at two
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: and four, they basically have to. if he's at all
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: able to go. But this Rams team, they faced a
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, dude. They fucked up by not adjusting to
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the time zone in Australia and lost to the 49ers,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: who we now know are really good. They lost at
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Denver in a game where they actually dominated that game statistically.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Not easy to go into mile high, but that was
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: a misleading result. They should have won that game statistically.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Then they dominated Philly statistically as well, and that was before...
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: all the ridiculous shit with the blood clots where I
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: don't think I've even talked about that on this show. Um,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about it when we get to the Monday
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: night game, I guess, uh, the hurt stuff, but that
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: hadn't happened yet. Uh, and the Rams, uh, dominated Philly
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: more than what the, uh, more than what that score
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: would suggest. And the Rams probably should have won the
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: game against Buffalo, another good team on Monday night. And
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: the Rams fell short because of the Sean McVay getting
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: way too conservative at the end and then thicker kicker
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: having a thicker kick and missing the kick or having
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: it partially blocked. ridiculous the Rams definitely could have won
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: that game so really the only game where the Rams
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: really played poorly legitimately well besides I guess debatably the
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: San Francisco one was this Arizona one last week I
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: just think it was a bad spot for the Rams
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: right it was a quick turnaround time of the overtime
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Monday night game against Buffalo I just think they didn't
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot left in the tank and they
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: just yeah they were in a flat spot what else
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: can I say I gave out a lean on Arizona
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: last week After that, I expect the Rams to bounce
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: back here. Even though the Rams are 2-4 and Raiders
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: are 3-3, give me a break, dude. The odds are
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: telling you who the better team is. It's the Rams,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: and to be honest, I think this line is short.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: I think it should be about 5 in this game,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: and it opened closer to that, and I know the
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: money has come in against them, but I don't understand it.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know why. I don't know why this says
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: the opener was 7.5. It was not, but yeah, that
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: might have been like a look-ahead line or something. So, yeah,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I guess prior to the season or maybe a couple
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: of weeks in advance, the Rams are going to be
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: over a touchdown favorite in this game. So this is
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: one of those, like, it's a stock market play. Like,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: the stock is extremely low on the Rams, yet the.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: You know, the power ratings guys and the odds makers
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: or whatever still have the Rams as like a top
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: five team in the league. So they're being very, very
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: undervalued here. And it gets a little bit better because
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: the Raiders are in a bad spot, even though you
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: got to think, well, they might get up for a
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: game against the Rams, but. The Rams haven't been playing well,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: so it might look a little bit easier on looking
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: at what the Rams did last week, but also the
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Raiders are coming off a huge performance where that was
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: one of my winners I gave out on the show
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: last week. They covered against the Bills, even though somebody
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: in the comments on that video said that I got
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: that wrong. I'm like, what the fuck are you smoking?
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Are you in some alternate reality? What are you talking about?
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: That was a winner I gave out on the show,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: unless you don't even know how spreads work, and if
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: you don't, then... Get the fuck out of this channel,
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: all right? I don't know what else to tell you.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: But obviously, we got a winner with the Raiders there.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: It was dicey. It was definitely dicey at the end.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: But that Bills defense isn't good. And the Raiders were
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: able to get back within that number at the end.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: It was back and forth near the end. Probably should
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: have been an easier cover for the Raiders, really. But
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: the Raiders are coming up that. That was a huge
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: performance from them. So I don't know if they're going
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: to be able to maintain that two games in a row.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: And you're going to get a Rams team that is
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: in total desperation mode here. in a bounce back mode,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: I know we see 57% of the tickets on the Rams,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: and only 50% of the cash, but they're not really
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: that public, at the very least, I think they're the
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: right side here, especially if we're getting right on this
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: key number three here, it opened five and a half,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: and now it's down to three, three and a half,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: which maybe is indicating that Nakua's not playing, but If
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: you can find the three, do it. I would lay
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: up to about minus 120 to get the three. If not,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I would still lay three and a half. I still
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: think three and a half is actually too cheap on
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: the Rams as well. It's just, you know, you'd rather
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: be on the better side of the key number. But yeah,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: this spot screamed Rams when I first saw this. I
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: was like, oh yeah. You got a team coming off
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: an embarrassing loss as a huge favorite. Those teams tend
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. And you got the other team on
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: the other side... who played really well as a big
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: underdog last week, and usually teams come up flat after
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: a game like that. So let's play the Rams as
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: the better team, getting a discounted price in a desperate spot.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Let's do it, man. Even though usually I don't like
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: desperation when the team is having to lay points because
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: usually they're getting overvalued in the market when that's the case,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: and I don't think they are in this game. So
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: let's do it, Rams. Justin, what's up, man? Boobs lady.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Is she still there? Uh, is she always there? Um,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: she's just some, she's some lady with huge tits, uh,
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. And she has a, she probably, I guess
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: she has season tickets or somebody she knows does behind
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: a plate. I've seen her before. So I assume you're
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: saying she's just still there. Um, yeah, man. Um, you know, uh,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: It's entertaining, I'll say that. I don't mind looking at
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: that lady, even though I assume her boobs are fake,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: which kind of sucks. I'd rather have real ones. All right,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: next game up. I like this game a decent amount, too,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: the Sunday night game. It's not going to make the
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: cut for me, but this is Kansas City and Seattle,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: and you have a Seattle team that's sitting at 3-3,
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: and I think they've lost three games in a row
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: up against an undefeated Kansas City team, yet Seattle's the
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: favorite here by almost a field goal. So the oddsmakers
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: are telling you These teams are pretty closely matched here,
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: despite what the records are telling you. Kansas City's got
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the public action here, 75% of the tickets on them,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: so they are indeed a public underdog, and the real
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: money is not on that side. The real money, 51%
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Seattle, so yeah, Kansas City's definitely
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: a public underdog here, and I think that's a red flag,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: especially in a high profile game like this is one
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: of the biggest matchups of the week. It's the Sunday
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: night game. So, you know, everybody's, it's going to be
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: a high volume betting game. Let's put it that way.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: And the public wants the underdog in this game. I
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: think that's a red, red flag, man. Red, red flag.
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Like the UB 40 song, but applied to the NFL,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: whatever I was, I was hoping to make some total reference.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: If there was a 40 total on this, it's 42
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: and a half, but whatever.
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: I like Seattle in this game as well, where the
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: professional money seems to be. I would fade the public
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: underdog here. Again, the public underdog, big red flag. When
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: the public sides with the team, it's not even supposed
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: to win. Now, Kansas City, I mean, they've done nothing wrong.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. They've played well so far.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Haven't lost yet, but they've faced a pretty soft schedule.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, they crushed the Broncos. That was probably their
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: best win. Then they barely got by the Colts, and
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: the Colts were able to put up a lot of
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: offense against them. They beat the Dolphins, the Raiders, who
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: I really don't think are that good. And the Chiefs
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: gave up 27 to the Raiders. And then they beat
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, who can't do anything right, last week. Now,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is coming off yet that, which I don't
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: think they're going to put that much weight into beating
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. You know, you're not going to overlook the
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl champs, although... Kansas city is in a divisional
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: sandwich here still. I mean, they just beat the chargers,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: which is still nonetheless satisfying beating one of your divisional foes.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: And with the Broncos on deck, we're really the only threat, uh,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: to Kansas city in this division here. I'm not going
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: to say they're going to overlook the Seahawks. That would
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: be stupid. I don't think that's going to be the case. Um,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: But I think it's a little bit of a questionable spot,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: let's say, for Kansas City, and I think their resume
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: is a little bit questionable at 5-0, even though I
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: thought they would have a bounce-back season this year, and
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: that is happening. But the Seahawks are going to be
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: the best team they've faced so far, and it's not
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: even really that close. So it's going to be their
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: toughest game, and it's worse because Pacific Coast travels. So
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas City going from central time out west, which I
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: think is still bad because they're going to be playing
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: this game up until– past 10 o'clock their time, so
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: that's still not a great spot. Playing late on the
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast is bad for these more easterly teams, so
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: that's not good. The Seahawks have faced a more difficult
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: schedule than Kansas City has. As the Seahawks face the Patriots,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: who are looking all right now, they face the 49ers,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: the Broncos. Well, both teams face the Broncos, but still.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Seahawks have faced a little bit more of a difficult schedule.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: They've had three road games so far. Seahawks have extra
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: time off now, though. They went into mile high last Thursday.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Had a real ugly performance losing to the Broncos. So
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bounce back spot if they had
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: an ugly game against the Broncos where they did technically
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: lose the favorite in that game. They were the road
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: favorite there. And with extra time off off a game
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: like that, I think the extra time off does help
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: you fix some things. And that was a bad spot, remember.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I gave out Denver as a play there because Seattle
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: was coming up that huge game against the 49ers that
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: they fell short in. And they had this Chiefs game
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: on deck, which I thought they might actually potentially even
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: look ahead to because it's a Sunday night game. So
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: we got it right with the Broncos. I think it
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: was a flat spot for Seattle. I think now extra
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: time off. This is a bounce back spot. They're catching
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs at I think at least a decent time here. Yeah,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: I like Seattle in this one. That's the way I
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: would play this one. The Chiefs, well, I already pointed
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: out what the percentages are. They're definitely a public underdog here.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Seattle opened around two, but now you have to lay
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: about three with them. I would try to find a
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half on this if you can. If
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: you have to lay two and a half with Juice
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: or something, or I guess you could money line it
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: with Seattle or something. But yeah, I like Seattle. I mean,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: I guess I'd still probably lay up to about three
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: with them, even though I would much prefer two and
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: a half if you're going to play this one, which
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: I think it is in my contest entry that I'm in.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: So I think the Seahawks might be the other game
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: I put in my contest entry. All right, then we
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: have the Monday night game, Dallas at Philadelphia. Philadelphia, they
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: got a lot of problems, man. A lot of guys
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: are out. Saquon Barkley has been out. I don't know
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: if he's back at this point. Hurts, I don't think
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: he's going to come back this season. And I think
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: the team should be suffering. They should be getting hit
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: with some legal action, dude. This team's medical staff knew
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: that Jalen Hurts had blood clots. Let's not say on
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: the show where we think those came from, by the way.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: or where I think we know they came from, But
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: they had Hurts. They deemed him eligible to play. They
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: let him fly to London. So they let him fly
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: on a plane, which can affect blood clots. And then they,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: if you don't know about this, they told him not
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: to sleep prior to playing that game. And the Seahawks,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: excuse me, the Eagles, the other bird, the Eagles still
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: covered that game against the Jaguars too, which is ridiculous.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: And it was still my lean in the game too.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: I didn't know any of that was going on with Hurts.
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: Hurts played that game after not sleeping enough. 36 hours straight,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: he was awake. Like, he didn't sleep on the plane
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: and didn't sleep, I guess, in, I guess they flew
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: out shortly before they played. He didn't sleep at all.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Those medical doctors should be, like, sued for malpractice, man.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: They could have killed Jalen Hurts. It's completely ridiculous, dude.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: unbelievably ridiculous so they knew that and they were like
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: ah you'll be fine just don't sleep which might be
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: even worse who knows not sleeping seems like a bad
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: idea to me i don't know and then playing a
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: full contact and a bell game on no sleep what
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: the fuck dude i have no idea uh so then
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: obviously hurts wound up not playing last week uh and
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: the eagles did not play well but of course they
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: were coming back from london so like what can you
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: do man it wasn't a great spot um That game
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: I had difficulty figuring out because it was still the
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: injured player spot for the Eagles. And I said that
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: at three, I did slightly lean Eagles there at plus
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: three because I thought it was a little bit of
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: an overreaction. But luckily in my pick-em pools, Carolina was
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: one and a half or one. So I was like, well,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: I'll just take the value because I can't figure this
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: game out. So took Carolina there. Now the Eagles are
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: coming off losing. really bad in that game against uh
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Carolina there now yes I do think they still have
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: all these injuries to be aware of here obviously Hertz
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: isn't playing so they are going with Tanner McKee he's
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: their guy now Andy Dalton might be picked up by
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: another team at this point. Philadelphia cut Andy Dalton, which
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: is kind of stupid, in my opinion, because he's got
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of experience. But I guess McKee is the
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: guy right now for Philadelphia. Hasn't looked good so far,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: but he's at least getting experience. It looks like Barkley
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: may be able to play. He's questionable. So there's a
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: possibility Barkley is back. So that will obviously help Philly
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: if they have their best offensive player back. Smith is
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: still out, though, so their wide receiver core is still really,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: really hurting right now. So, yeah, we know Philadelphia doesn't
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: have a great offense right now, but there's still the
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. They still have a good defense, and it's
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: still the better defense against Dallas. Dallas has a pathetic defense,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: and you're going to have to lay points on the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: road if you want Dallas here. I wouldn't do it.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: I would have to lean to the Eagles here. I
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: know Dallas didn't look good last week, but it was
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: a night game. It was a big game against the Packers.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Now they're going to swing around, play another road game.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's a third road game in four weeks
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: because I don't think they've had a bye yet, if
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. And they're playing a fourth game. with
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: travel over that span, too, because they played in Brazil. Yeah,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: they're bison until Week 14. So since Week 3, this
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: is what Dallas has had to do. They had to
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: play in Brazil, then in Houston, then back at home
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: in Dallas. That was the only travel spot that wasn't
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: that bad, really. Then they had to play in Green Bay,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: and now they're having to play in Philadelphia. That's a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: lot of travel, which can take its toll. uh nobody's
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: gonna want the eagles with how ugly they looked i
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: think people will give dallas more of a pass for
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: their loss to uh the packers on that night game
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: i think the lean is philly here dallas is the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: public side uh 66 of the tickets 59 of the
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: cash on them dallas hilariously is the favorite to win
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: that division now uh but you're gonna give me the
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: eagles the better defense getting points i think i would
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: have to lean that way four and a half is
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: now the number um Philadelphia, I mean, come on, man.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: It's still the Eagles at home. I know I kind
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: of said that last week, too, but I think this
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: week's a little bit different. I mean, this Dallas defense,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't really be laying points on the road to
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: really anybody, I would say. So, yeah, I mean, maybe
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: some of the absolute worst teams in the entire NFL.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think Philly's that. I think the stock is
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: really low on the Eagles. I'm going to lean to
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: the Eagles in that one. It's not really that. It
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: sounds like I'm I have a strong opinion on all
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: these games, but not really. So you know what my
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: two plays are, and my strongest opinions besides the two
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: plays are I think Tennessee is the most strong besides those,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: so I like Tennessee a lot. Then I would say Dolphins,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: I guess, and then Seattle. Those, I think, are my
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: next three. I like those better than the rest and
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: less so than the two that I'm actually going to play. Snoop,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: thank you, sir. Thanks for hanging out. That's going to
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: do it. My two plays one more time. Indianapolis Colts
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half. I'm saying wait on that
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: to see if you can get the seven because there's
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: not much of a difference between six and six and
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: a half. So maybe you get seven on that. I'm
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: not so sure that you will, but possibly. And then
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: somehow we're getting the Rams at three. I would still
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: lay three and a half on this, but the threes,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: there were a few different books that had a three
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: with like around minus 115 juice right before I did
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: the show. So yeah, Um, I don't think you're going
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: to get better than that though. Cause the public is
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: at least slightly on the Rams there, unless you think
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: the professional money is going to drill this thing down
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: and the public action, you know, isn't heavy enough on
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: the Rams to keep it up. Maybe that's true. Uh,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: but yeah, we'll be on the Rams there as well.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: That's going to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: learn to tote on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: You get notified when I go live, we'll go live
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: in the morning. Cause we're going to have more stuff
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: that we have to handicap. Um, Dude, did WNBA finish
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: or is there going to be another WNBA game? It
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: won't be tomorrow, though. The Valkyries did win. Of course,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: I told you they would since I didn't put it
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: on my card, of course. I leaned in their direction.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Of course they won, so the WNBA finals are continuing
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: and going to a fifth game. But yeah, anyway, tomorrow
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about, I think there won't be any World
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: Series tomorrow because I think the series is shifting to
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, but we'll have to talk about NBA and
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: NHL I think is going to be what the morning
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: show will be. And a final recap of NFL. I'll
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: be back then. Like, subscribe to the show here. Leave comments.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Boost it up. Got some good numbers on the college
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: football show last night. I had a lot of good opinions.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: I just wish that those were the games I actually
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: put on my card. I'll rant about it tomorrow because
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: I think my card should have gone 3-1, so I'm
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: pretty pissed. about that. We had a winning day though,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: because both games I gave out on the morning show
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: were wins. So it's not just football, man. When football
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: is going on, you don't want to ignore the other
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: sports that you know how to handicap. And that's what
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: we were able to do. We were able to get
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: wins in NBA and NHL today. So there you go. Um,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: I'm going to try to continue with that. Listen to
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: the show and audio as well. That helps me out. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, um,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: other audio platforms. Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: That's on YouTube. You can find that. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: if you want to support me there. I am on
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: all the socials, Twitter, Instagram. TikTok is not giving me
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: any reach. They're saying that I'm violating TikTok. unknown terms,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: like just because I'm talking about gambling, like, I don't
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: know if TikTok is going to be a complete bust
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: or if they're only doing it because it's a new account.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'm, I'm a real person. Like
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: my content is getting posted, you know, to Instagram and
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: to YouTube shorts and those are doing all right. So
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Anyway, check all that out as well.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: My best bets and some of my other best takes
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: all go up in clips now. So I'm doing all that,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: trying to put the work in baby. Um, should be
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: getting paid more for it. I'm My back hurts when
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: I do these shows, man. Maybe I should recline back
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: like this. That would help. Maybe I need to get
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: a better chair with better lumbar support or something because
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: part of the problem is I'm leaning forward here. Part
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: of the problem is also a Dave Smith show. Anyway,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: what else was I going to say? Oh, yeah, loser
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: cast every Tuesday night. I always almost forget that. Yes, that.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Have a good night, everybody. I appreciate it. Everybody for
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Snoop, Mark, Cody, Justin, Liz, Mr. Pinsey, Dirty Sock.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you, everybody. Peace for now.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: Let somebody know you do not have to lose this
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: round alone. Hold on Not tonight Not now.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: Hold on Hold.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: On Let me pull You out That bad luck Fights
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: hard But it don't Get the crown Hold on Hold.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: On Stay with me now Hold on, hold on. You're
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: still here now.