Latest / Open The Gate / EP 47: Ryan Lundquist- Sacramento Housing Reality Check

Transcript

EP 47: Ryan Lundquist- Sacramento Housing Reality Check · Open The Gate

0:19
SPEAKER_00: Hello, Kaylee.
0:20
SPEAKER_02: Hi, Dan.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: How the heck are you?
0:23
SPEAKER_02: You know.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: Newly inked.
0:26
SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah, I got new tattoos.
0:28
SPEAKER_02: I forgot about that.
0:29
SPEAKER_02: Um, thank you.
0:30
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
0:30
SPEAKER_02: I just kind of went for it.
0:32
SPEAKER_02: So I my son has a very unique heart-shaped tattoo that I knew I was going to get when he turned one, and that time is now.
0:40
SPEAKER_02: He turns one this week, which is mind-blown.
0:44
SPEAKER_02: And then I've always had this concept for butterfly.
0:46
SPEAKER_02: So I was like, you know what?
0:47
SPEAKER_02: We're just gonna like just go do it all.
0:49
SPEAKER_00: Well it's amazing how the birthmark is like heart.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: I know.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: And the location of it's great.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: It's awesome.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: I love it.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: People don't believe it.
0:56
SPEAKER_02: People don't believe it until I show them and they're like, I have never seen anything like that.
1:00
SPEAKER_02: I'm like, I know.
1:01
SPEAKER_02: His pediatrician of 30 years said the same thing, so it's pretty special.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: I'm guessing that, you know, when he's a teenager, he'll be so proud of his matching birthmark with his mom's tattoo.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: I didn't want to tell you that.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna have to hold on to that.
1:15
SPEAKER_02: It'll remind me when he's being a little shit, and I'm like, God, I wish he were a baby again.
1:20
SPEAKER_02: I'll just look at that heart on my chest and be like, huh, well, at least I have a if I were him, I would leverage it, be like, hey, mom, just remember.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: You call her.
1:29
SPEAKER_02: If I raise him right, he will too.
1:31
SPEAKER_02: How are you?
1:32
SPEAKER_02: How are things?
1:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm great.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: Um had a long day yesterday.
1:36
SPEAKER_00: Uh drove home from Reno yesterday afternoon.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: Um got to State Line, the road was 80 was closed, decided had to get home because this had a lot of stuff that needed to get done that wasn't gonna be.
1:48
SPEAKER_02: So did you wait it out or did you go around?
1:50
SPEAKER_00: So we drove from State Line back through Reno down to South Lake Tahoe.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: That was about an hour and a half, and then another three and a half from South Lake Tahoe home.
1:59
SPEAKER_00: So um total trip?
2:01
SPEAKER_00: Little yeah, a little anxiety like the electric car and the cold weather.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: I had a little little uh, you know, what was your total travel time?
2:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh just shy of five hours.
2:12
SPEAKER_02: Okay, that's not terrible.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: So not terrible, and it was cool.
2:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I had my daughter locked in the car with me, so and she, you know, we talked.
2:18
SPEAKER_00: It was just two of us.
2:18
SPEAKER_00: That's great.
2:19
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, I mean, eventually, you know, sometimes she'd she'd be like I could tell she'd like to put her headphones on and tune you out and go on to TikTok land for a little while.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: But then she'd come back and we talked.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: So it was great.
2:28
SPEAKER_00: It was a lot of fun.
2:30
SPEAKER_00: Forced quality trip.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: It was a good trip, yeah.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: Good, good trip.
2:32
SPEAKER_02: Nothing like bonding with your kids to be stuck in a car for several hours.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: I mean, yeah.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: And when and you when you when they get and Ryan probably knows this as well, but when they get to a certain age, like you lose them.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: So when you can trap them in an environment they can't leave for a couple hours.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: You just get those.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you got plenty of time.
2:48
SPEAKER_02: You say that, but it goes by so fast.
2:50
SPEAKER_02: Like here we are.
2:51
SPEAKER_02: It's been a year, it's been a year, and it doesn't feel like it's been a year.
2:55
SPEAKER_02: Um and then my parents broke it down, they're like, this is it.
2:58
SPEAKER_02: There's it.
2:58
SPEAKER_02: You get one summer as a baby, you get three as toddlers, you get another couple before they don't want anything to do with you.
3:03
SPEAKER_02: And I was like, you shut up right now.
3:05
SPEAKER_00: It's it I don't know.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: I've so many people have told me that one.
3:08
SPEAKER_00: I I go back and forth on it.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: Um I mean, you know, I talk all the time, and I've got a little a little more than two years.
3:14
SPEAKER_02: So you don't have all the like hormone emotion running through like I do.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I didn't carry.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: I didn't care.
3:20
SPEAKER_00: You're lucky.
3:20
SPEAKER_02: You're lucky in that sense.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: All right, enough about us.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: Um super excited.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: I mean I jokingly say our our next guest is a local celebrity.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: Um he's one of my favorite people.
3:32
SPEAKER_00: He's and he is, and he is.
3:33
SPEAKER_00: He's he's he's reluctant to admit it, but uh he always has you know, he had he was our first guest on Open the Gate podcast ever.
3:42
SPEAKER_02: And now he's our first ever repeat.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: And now he's our first ever repeat guest.
3:46
SPEAKER_00: Exciting.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: Um and I'm just so happy to have him here.
3:50
SPEAKER_00: Um he's someone who I identified young in my career as someone who was doing it the right way and tried to kind of emulate and model the things that I was doing.
3:57
SPEAKER_00: He's just he's he's got a gigantic heart and always willing to give back and help out.
4:02
SPEAKER_00: Um I thought, you know, during COVID, I mean, he was kind of the lifeline to the residential real estate world because he was just so finger on the pulse and and so open and and willing to share all of his insights and his knowledge and his data.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: Um I thought it was paramount to the to the local market.
4:19
SPEAKER_00: So without further ado, our good friend, Mr.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: Ryan Lundquist.
4:26
SPEAKER_00: That's the one.
4:41
SPEAKER_00: So on the text thread this morning, I was telling Ryan that this song was giving me major Tony Hawk pro skater vibes.
4:49
SPEAKER_00: All of it.
4:50
SPEAKER_02: You know, there's there's a an air about you that is just like so vintage pop punk.
4:58
SPEAKER_02: And I appreciate it so much.
5:00
SPEAKER_02: I appreciate it so much.
5:01
SPEAKER_02: Even in like your your journey to get back on the skateboard, which I'm I want to hear the update about, like, but it's very authentic and it's very refreshing.
5:10
SPEAKER_03: I appreciate that.
5:10
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I you know what I'm learning to, you know, walk in, you know, the things I like and be be comfortable in my own skin and share that stuff.
5:19
SPEAKER_03: And it it hasn't been an issue at all.
5:21
SPEAKER_03: I mean, here I am, uh, I'll be 50 this year and back on the skateboard.
5:25
SPEAKER_03: And um I don't know.
5:26
SPEAKER_03: I just thought, can I talk about this?
5:28
SPEAKER_03: And the people think it was like amateur-ish, but I don't know.
5:32
SPEAKER_03: It's sort of like you start talking about something and you find your people.
5:36
SPEAKER_03: And I think it's been cool to you know build a relationship with people, and um, you know, yeah, and that's been good.
5:42
SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, I mean the deepening of the relationships out, you know, I mean, because I think with your position, especially in like the Sacramento residential real estate market, everyone kind of looks at you in a in a very special light, and it's and it's cool.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: But it's funny because like I've had a handful of people who are like, oh, like you know Ryan.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: And I'm like, I know Ryan pretty well.
6:01
SPEAKER_00: Like I've you know, we text back and forth and you know, we joke around, and you know, I've had a beer in your garage before.
6:07
SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, but it's like people who who who don't, I'm like, man, he's like one of the most approachable people on the planet.
6:13
SPEAKER_00: Like, and it's such an easy it's such an easy connect, and he's always been super open to meeting people.
6:17
SPEAKER_02: So I think don't be afraid to say hi to him next time.
6:20
SPEAKER_02: So it's very, very you are the sage wisdom, I think, when it comes to anybody wanting to know how the Sacramento market is doing, how it has historically done, projections, like the objective, undeniable data that we all need, and whether we're buyer, seller, commercial, or residential, doesn't matter.
6:41
SPEAKER_02: That information is dire.
6:42
SPEAKER_02: And you're the only person who's really putting it out in a in a hyperlocal way.
6:46
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, no, and I appreciate the kind words, guys.
6:49
SPEAKER_03: And let's not I've had enough.
6:51
SPEAKER_03: That's good.
6:52
SPEAKER_03: We we can move on.
6:53
SPEAKER_03: It's just flattery limit.
6:54
SPEAKER_03: All right.
6:55
SPEAKER_03: No, but I, you know, I I love this stuff, and it's all about like telling the authentic story of the market.
7:01
SPEAKER_03: It doesn't serve anyone if we, you know, if we lie about the stats or invent narratives that aren't true, that aren't consistent.
7:08
SPEAKER_03: That doesn't serve anyone.
7:10
SPEAKER_03: I think sometimes people in real estate are always looking for that you know positive, glowing edge.
7:15
SPEAKER_03: This is the only thing that I can share.
7:17
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, man, like it's okay to say that if prices have gone down a couple percent from last year, like that means that buyers are closer to affording it.
7:26
SPEAKER_03: And like, like we don't want to have this, you know, hyper, you know, positive seller-oriented narrative.
7:32
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, hey, there are sellers and there are buyers, let's not leave buyers out of the equation.
7:37
SPEAKER_03: And I think buyers a lot, they get left out in residential real estate because it's all about like, you know, that seller-oriented bias.
7:45
SPEAKER_03: And I'm always like, nope, let's bring the buyers along.
7:47
SPEAKER_03: Let's not.
7:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, without buyers, sellers won't have anything to sell.
7:51
SPEAKER_00: Two sides to the coin.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: Two sides of every market.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
7:55
SPEAKER_02: I think that people historically they want to they think that listings run the market, right?
8:00
SPEAKER_02: Like we need more inventory to match the buyer demand, all this stuff.
8:04
SPEAKER_02: People, I think as a realtor, I know that the narrative is we need listings, but we also need affordability.
8:11
SPEAKER_02: We need other things.
8:12
SPEAKER_02: And I think it's okay to say that maybe it's not so great for sellers at a certain time and that it does benefit buyers.
8:18
SPEAKER_02: There's always a way to look at it where maybe one side of the coin is a little bit down, but the other side of the coin means something good for someone else.
8:26
SPEAKER_00: So when you find it, when you find that perfect meeting point in a market, it's it's tough.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: And then you see it like things blow up, right?
8:34
SPEAKER_00: Like either prices go skyrocketing or prices go plummeting because one, because the buyer side either can't afford or can afford way too much.
8:42
SPEAKER_02: So or there's a standstill because we're in war and all the economic uncertainty.
8:47
SPEAKER_02: So I'm excited to hear what is going on with the Sacramento market right now.
8:51
SPEAKER_03: Post-Iran or pre-No, I'm just kidding.
8:55
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I know it's uh it's a hot mess right now.
8:58
SPEAKER_03: There's like there's always something changing.
9:00
SPEAKER_03: Um I'd say overall the market went from mom jeans to skinny jeans.
9:05
SPEAKER_03: And what I mean is that it was really loose last year.
9:08
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, supply began to grow and going, wow, things are really, really softening.
9:14
SPEAKER_03: Um price stats went negative last year, and they've really been negative for almost a year now.
9:19
SPEAKER_03: But um, but sellers backed off the market also last year.
9:23
SPEAKER_03: And so we're in a place where, you know, a lot of room in those mom jeans, and then it's sort of you know gone down and we're back to this market that feels tighter.
9:32
SPEAKER_03: And and so I see that, I can see the graphs in my head right now to show that.
9:36
SPEAKER_03: And so right now competition levels are pretty normal, actually.
9:40
SPEAKER_03: And so um, they line up like this last month in March, they line up perfectly with the pre-2020 average, you know.
9:47
SPEAKER_03: But last summer it got pretty dull.
9:50
SPEAKER_03: And so, but we're also going, hey, what happens with gas prices and inflation is up and Iran, and and that's a thing that we don't see in the stats yet.
10:00
SPEAKER_03: And so we will eventually, but um, so far sellers haven't backed off though.
10:06
SPEAKER_03: You know, they have been engaging.
10:07
SPEAKER_03: And so for four months in a row, we've had more sellers um, you know, and more new listings than 2024 levels.
10:14
SPEAKER_03: Last month was ahead of 2025, awesome to see.
10:18
SPEAKER_03: But in April, I'm going, okay, wait, do we get any sort of pullback because of uncertainty?
10:23
SPEAKER_03: And that's to me, that would be the most unfortunate thing to see in the market where you know it feels like we get momentum and we can get more affordability.
10:32
SPEAKER_03: But if sellers backed off like they did last year and they're starting to come back, if they back off again, then you know we're in a place where it just feels like we're perpetually stuck.
10:41
SPEAKER_03: And and I don't think that's a great thing.
10:44
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, and buyers are troopers, they're kind of hanging in there at really low, historically low levels.
10:49
SPEAKER_00: Um so I know like back in the day it was always like kind of the seven-year real estate cycle where you'd have seven good years and a handful of bad years, and seven good years and a handful of so you got that kind of that gradual increase in the market.
11:03
SPEAKER_00: What what kind of trend are you seeing in that regard?
11:06
SPEAKER_00: Are you still because I feel like that seven-year trend has been just demolished in the last, you know, ten years.
11:12
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, there's been so many normal things happening.
11:17
SPEAKER_02: You had a pandemic, you had all this other stuff.
11:19
SPEAKER_02: I was actually about to ask about cycles too, but I was gonna focus more on how long does it take for you to get accurate read on what's happening now before you start seeing the trend.
11:28
SPEAKER_02: So answer his and then mine.
11:30
SPEAKER_03: For sure, for sure.
11:30
SPEAKER_03: So uh yeah, there's no such thing as a seven-year cycle, but in California and Sacramento, yeah, we do tend to see prices sort of go up for, you know, five to seven years, and and they might go down for about the same amount of time.
11:43
SPEAKER_03: And so, but what happened 2012 to 2019?
11:46
SPEAKER_03: Technically, we had eight years of growth.
11:48
SPEAKER_03: Yep.
11:48
SPEAKER_03: Then COVID happened, you know, the market was already slowing down, but then you know, rates under 3% supercharged the market, and then all of a sudden, you know, we have a few more years of growth in a very short period of time, yeah.
12:00
SPEAKER_03: You know, about two years, where we had tremendous growth on top of those eight years.
12:04
SPEAKER_03: And so, um, so yeah, we're in an interesting spot.
12:08
SPEAKER_03: Um, technically we're down about seven percent from mid-2022.
12:12
SPEAKER_03: But really, what happened in mid-2022, you know, prices come back.
12:17
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's it's like that's a tough comparison.
12:19
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's like then we're down five percent.
12:21
SPEAKER_03: We've been down five percent for you know the last few years, but then last year we had a an additional two percent down.
12:29
SPEAKER_03: So then it starts to feel like, oh, we're down a little bit more.
12:31
SPEAKER_03: But it just I think when you're pulling comps in a lot of areas, it just feels very flat.
12:36
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, we're down a little bit.
12:38
SPEAKER_03: If you're lucky, it's up a little bit.
12:40
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, it's a mixed bag.
12:41
SPEAKER_03: But then to answer your question, how long does it take for a trend to start showing up in the numbers?
12:47
SPEAKER_03: I mean, probably you know, 30 to 60 days, you know, before we start to see a real change.
12:52
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, and so I always think like the stories of today turn into the stats of tomorrow.
12:57
SPEAKER_03: It's one of my favorite scenes because we're not really seeing uncertainty in the stats right now with the number of sellers and the number of buyers, but I am hearing from agents going like, yeah, buyers are a little concerned about gas prices or you know, inflation or the cost of things.
13:14
SPEAKER_03: Um I always think when the government's talking about inflation, you know, hey, we're doing better.
13:18
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, bro, which store do you shop at?
13:21
SPEAKER_03: You know?
13:21
SPEAKER_03: Because I just want to know, seriously, tell me, because I'm not seeing that.
13:25
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's so and it's so it's so wild.
13:27
SPEAKER_00: So like my in-laws are with are with us right now and they're staying with us for a bit from from Brazil.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: And um, you know, the last time Marina and I went to Brazil was um a year and a half ago, and the exchange rate was like three to one.
13:41
SPEAKER_00: So it was like for every one of our dollars, we got three of theirs.
13:44
SPEAKER_00: Right now it's one to five.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: Like my poor my poor in-laws are here and they're paying one to five.
13:48
SPEAKER_00: So five of theirs for one of ours.
13:50
SPEAKER_00: So something that's 20 bucks is costing them a hundred of, you know, essentially their currency.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: Um so it's interesting because like when you start measuring things like that, and I was gonna ask you like when you talk about like the market being down, are you talking like unit volume or like sales price?
14:05
SPEAKER_03: Well, yeah, that's a good question.
14:07
SPEAKER_03: Um price.
14:08
SPEAKER_03: Okay, price.
14:08
SPEAKER_03: Price is down one to two percent, all the metrics.
14:11
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, but yeah, volume is basically like this last quarter, we're just ahead of last year.
14:17
SPEAKER_03: And so it's like people can golf clap it up and be excited, get hyped, but it's like like barely ahead of time.
14:23
SPEAKER_00: Well, and that plays into that kind of thing you were talking about earlier where you can pick your stats to tell the story if you just want to manipulate them in one direction, right?
14:31
SPEAKER_00: Like so you know, you could say, oh, sales are up because the volume is up.
14:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but you're not gonna be able to do that.
14:37
SPEAKER_00: But if you're looking at if you're looking at value or you're looking at price, essentially you're not saying the same story.
14:43
SPEAKER_02: Well, and I think that's what makes you very valued in the industry is that you don't put a spin on it.
14:49
SPEAKER_02: You keep it objective.
14:50
SPEAKER_02: And so I think there are a lot of people who want to spin data so that it you know it per per it supports their agenda.
15:00
SPEAKER_00: Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Well, I mean, let's be honest, we're salespeople.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
15:03
SPEAKER_00: And we we'd like to tell sunshine.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: We have to be positive, right?
15:07
SPEAKER_02: We can't we can't pick up a client if we're just negative about it.
15:10
SPEAKER_02: But I think that there's a way to tell the true story and be objective about it and let people come to their own conclusions.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, and I think Ryan does such a great job of that too.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: Like, he's always like, hey, let's just let's just let the stats tell the story.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: Like, you know, and I think that's a really nice way not to throw more flowers in your direction.
15:25
SPEAKER_00: It's a really nice way of saying, hey, like, maybe it's not so great, right?
15:28
SPEAKER_00: Like read between the tea leaves here a little bit, like or let people come to their own decision.
15:32
SPEAKER_02: Like you don't mean just show them, hey, it's positive or hey, it's negative.
15:36
SPEAKER_02: Just give them a lot of people.
15:37
SPEAKER_00: And you have markets where where successful entrepreneurs flourish in a down market, right?
15:42
SPEAKER_00: So it it's different, different strokes for different folks, right?
15:45
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
15:46
SPEAKER_03: And I mean and I love that thing.
15:48
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
15:48
SPEAKER_03: And one of and speaking of scenes, one of my favorite scenes is that if you torture the stats long enough, they'll confess to anything.
15:55
SPEAKER_03: And and it's true.
15:56
SPEAKER_03: So we have to be careful about the numbers.
15:58
SPEAKER_03: But I look, I'm not the stats police, and I never like, hey, don't say that.
16:02
SPEAKER_03: Like I don't tell people what to say, but it's just sometimes people I think get into trouble because they're searching for this positive narrative.
16:08
SPEAKER_03: So El Dorado County, very small county, and man, price stats from month to month, the median, it bounces around like crazy.
16:15
SPEAKER_03: And so uh three months ago, El Dorado stats were up 20%, and then the you know, and then two months ago up 12%, and then this last month they're down seven percent.
16:26
SPEAKER_03: And so it's like so many fewer transactions that it's so easy to skew the numbers.
16:32
SPEAKER_02: One of them like, oh, that makes me nervous.
16:34
SPEAKER_02: I haven't had a listing coming up there.
16:35
SPEAKER_03: No, no, but see, but it's just my point is like we can't build a narrative on one month of data, and we gotta realize in some areas, the smaller areas, the numbers they bounce around like wild.
16:46
SPEAKER_03: And it's like ping pong or you know, pickleball or whatever, whatever we want to say.
16:50
SPEAKER_03: And so we've got to like sometimes go, you know what, there's not enough data here in East Sacramento or in Midtown or in El Dorado Hills to share like meaningful price stats on a given month.
17:01
SPEAKER_03: Because then we're gonna sound like we're nuts by saying the market's up, you know, this place is different.
17:06
SPEAKER_03: Oh, baby, Loomis, you know, and then in the next month they're down.
17:09
SPEAKER_03: And it's like, okay, wait, maybe I need to step back and just evaluate and go, how do I talk about the market in a smaller area?
17:16
SPEAKER_03: Like I give presentations.
17:18
SPEAKER_03: Um I'm speaking in Nevada County for the first time in May, and I spoke in um at the Lodi Association Association, and we talked about Stanislaus County and San Joaquin.
17:29
SPEAKER_03: And it's like fascinating for me sometimes to go into markets where there's not as much data and then to but just to tell the story and go, hey, we've got to look at the bigger picture, what's happening in the region, because really all ships rise and fall with the tide, and you you kind of see a similar trend, even though you might not see it on a month-to-month basis in some smaller areas.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: Do you do you ever like do you ever like kind of have a gut feeling when you go to do some some market analysis and then the numbers tell you a totally different story?
17:57
SPEAKER_00: How often does that happen in your world?
17:59
SPEAKER_03: Um I don't know.
18:00
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I guess I have my spidey sense might say something, but I try to just let the numbers do the talking.
18:06
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
18:07
SPEAKER_03: But um but but yeah, I mean, I I think I do get a sense of some things, and then sometimes the numbers confirm that.
18:13
SPEAKER_03: But I think everyone in real estate also is like, you know, sometimes someone will read something I wrote and go, hey, that's what I've been saying and sensing, and now I have the stats to back that up.
18:23
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for thanks for validating.
18:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
18:25
SPEAKER_03: But the danger is that we can judge our last three transactions or three appraisals or something and say, here's what the market's doing.
18:32
SPEAKER_03: And it's like, well, but if those properties aren't selling, that doesn't mean that other stuff isn't selling.
18:37
SPEAKER_03: So we have to be careful of like identifying a couple trees and saying, here's what the whole forest is doing.
18:42
SPEAKER_03: Like that's all there's always that tension.
18:43
SPEAKER_02: Okay, well, I'd like to talk about some things that really aren't selling.
18:46
SPEAKER_02: And I know you both have a different purview of this, but I want to talk about the cur the condo market.
18:53
SPEAKER_02: It's been struggling.
18:54
SPEAKER_05: Oh yeah.
18:55
SPEAKER_02: Um, I would like to know first of all, Ryan, what you're seeing statistically happening with there right now.
19:02
SPEAKER_02: And then Dan, you on the construction side and knowing, you know, the balcony issues with the HOA.
19:06
SPEAKER_02: I want to hear both of your guys's you know, just experience of what's happening and then any advice for people who own condos or are trying to sell condos, one of them is me.
19:16
SPEAKER_02: Um, like what can we do to try to get that more traction?
19:21
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they're just struggling right now.
19:23
SPEAKER_03: It's like the limbo.
19:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
19:25
SPEAKER_03: What can you do?
19:25
SPEAKER_03: Go low or go low.
19:27
SPEAKER_03: I know.
19:28
SPEAKER_02: Like, is that the only option?
19:29
SPEAKER_02: I guess.
19:30
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
19:30
SPEAKER_03: The the thing is condos, um, they've had a sharper downtrend.
19:35
SPEAKER_03: And so condo prices really started to decline um in 2024.
19:40
SPEAKER_03: That's when I first noticed.
19:41
SPEAKER_03: And so it it was declining first, you know, because insurance issues.
19:46
SPEAKER_03: The insurance gets hit with a you know,$200,000 bill for their insurance that they weren't expecting.
19:52
SPEAKER_03: They pass it off to consumers through special assessments or um through HOA fee increases, and and that's cost prohibitive.
19:59
SPEAKER_03: All of a sudden, people are like, hey, I'm gonna pay big money for a house today.
20:04
SPEAKER_03: I want it to have a freaking backyard.
20:06
SPEAKER_03: Right.
20:06
SPEAKER_03: I don't want to be attached to my neighbor.
20:08
SPEAKER_03: I'm trying to get out of apartment living.
20:10
SPEAKER_03: And so I think that the product has also maybe um not not been looking as good, also.
20:16
SPEAKER_03: Um I just wanted to be sure.
20:24
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
20:24
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we're still recording here.
20:25
SPEAKER_02: Sorry guys.
20:26
SPEAKER_02: More technical difficulties, not on Dan's part this time.
20:28
SPEAKER_02: I just want everybody to know he's been doing phenomenal lately.
20:31
SPEAKER_02: I actually gave him some accolades before the start of the episode.
20:34
SPEAKER_02: But um okay, continue what you were saying.
20:36
SPEAKER_03: No, and so I was gonna say, but the right price can sell in anything.
20:40
SPEAKER_03: I think that we just have to look and go, what is getting into contract price according to those?
20:46
SPEAKER_03: And and realize that this sharp decline won't last forever either.
20:50
SPEAKER_03: And so, you know, I think the positive news, and maybe it sounds like positive spin, is that when uh if something declines more sharply at first, then that means it gets to a place where it can be more affordable eventually first.
21:02
SPEAKER_03: And so I don't know that we're there yet.
21:05
SPEAKER_03: Condo volume's been really low, just like detached volume, but I think we're in a place where consumers are resisting that.
21:11
SPEAKER_03: And I I think you know, I hear from some investors who are like, hey, the numbers just don't make sense for me to hold this anymore.
21:17
SPEAKER_03: And so you have more supply, and so it's just that market where it's gonna decline more, and I think sellers just have to go, okay, what's that sweet spot?
21:26
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
21:26
SPEAKER_03: Um, and you know, someone will buy it, but just probably not and probably not at last year's prices.
21:31
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
21:32
SPEAKER_02: And Dan, so Dan, you see the more.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I I feel like I have a little more like specific example.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: So um there's SB326, um, and then SB721 in the apartment world, which these are Senate bills that were passed in regards to balcony and walkway and elevated exterior elements, what they refer to them as safety.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: And so um, and then you also had coupled on, you know, Ryan referenced insurance.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: Well, a lot of the condos, especially in the Sacramento area, are not brand new.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: They just haven't been building that segment because the numbers have kind of indicated that this is not the future.
22:08
SPEAKER_05: Right.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: Um, and that's not to say that that's right or wrong, but what the buying trends kind of tend to point the builders and developers at what to build.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: Um so what happened was you had a lot of A lot of these properties with outdated electrical systems.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: So now your up your panels have to be upgraded throughout, you know, your internal and your exterior, your your mains.
22:29
SPEAKER_00: Um so there's a cost with that.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's an HOA, so who who who carries the cost of that?
22:34
SPEAKER_00: The association members, which are essentially the homeowners.
22:37
SPEAKER_00: So you get a special assessment for that, or uh or just an assessment in general.
22:42
SPEAKER_00: Um so your HOA fees go up.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: You also have coupled with that construction and reconstruction costs.
22:51
SPEAKER_00: That again, we referenced COVID a little earlier.
22:54
SPEAKER_00: COVID taught a lot of people like if you limit supply, you can create demand, and if you have an increased demand, you can charge more for your product.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: And I think there's still a lot of residual going on there.
23:04
SPEAKER_00: So you've got the hardware components, even even construction materials in general, wood and things like that.
23:11
SPEAKER_00: Ryan used Ryan used to chronicle it.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: As a matter of fact, like this, the the ebbs and flows of construction material cost, and it's crazy.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: And they're still they're still considerably higher than than they were pre-COVID.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: And I don't expect and I don't expect that to change because that was, in my opinion, one of the things that COVID taught a lot of people was reduce supply, create demand.
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Um in the deck and balcony space, you basically have um you know a Senate bill that passed that now requires these inspections that have to be performed by like an engineer or um or an architect.
23:43
SPEAKER_00: So there's major requirements on these these industries that are already taxed and shorthanded people-wise and bandwidth.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: Um so to get their time, it's gonna cost you more because they have less time.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: Same, same, same parallel, right?
23:56
SPEAKER_00: And then again, now you've got you know, you've got a 40-year-old building that's never had the deck or balcony sealed or or given any maintenance whatsoever, and it's literally you know falling out.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: And not to be doom and gloom.
24:07
SPEAKER_00: Look, we've looked at a ton of these things that are in great shape and and and no risk.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: We've looked at others that are on the other side of the spectrum, right?
24:13
SPEAKER_00: That are very scary.
24:14
SPEAKER_02: Well it's getting to the point now where Frannie Mae and Freddie uh Fannie Mae and Freddie Matt came out and said that they wouldn't even lend on these properties unless they passed the inspection, which I think to an extent that they were gonna start loosening a little bit.
24:26
SPEAKER_02: Trevor Burrus, Jr.
24:26
SPEAKER_00: So I think getting back to the point though, what what's really happened in this scenario is, and Ryan touched it perfectly, all these costs end up back in one place.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: Back on the homeowner.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: Well, so if you think about the the primary purchasers of the condos, it's that entry-level first-time home buyer, and people that are looking to downsize and maybe get rid of some of the maintenance and things like that.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, so the retirement population.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: Well, those are two populations that have very, very tight demands on their income, whether it be a fixed income or a new professional for the most part, right?
25:04
SPEAKER_00: Like you get it, you get a new great new job out of college, or you finish paying off your student loan debt, and now you're trying to buy a house.
25:10
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's a huge cost to take on.
25:12
SPEAKER_00: Um, so you're seeing this shift where like these HOA fees are more than the mortgage at a certain point.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: It's like, holy cow, like, but that then that's because like every every cost associated with that maintenance has gone up.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: And you you you saw these HOAs that weren't that weren't necessarily proactively managed, or even if they were greatly managed, they couldn't keep up with the rate increases of of the material cost, the labor, and all these things.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: So it's really, really put that condo market in a tough spot.
25:44
SPEAKER_02: It's been like the perfect perfect storm for a condo.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's just it's just one the first wave hit them, and then the second they got a g, you know, they got a half a breath of air, and the second one hit them, and they're underneath trying to figure out which way is up.
25:56
SPEAKER_02: We've been crushing the analogies today.
25:57
SPEAKER_02: I just want you guys to know really appreciate that.
26:00
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's like a piece of pizza.
26:01
SPEAKER_03: It's a pizza.
26:02
SPEAKER_03: There's all these different slices affecting the market.
26:04
SPEAKER_03: Just there you go.
26:05
SPEAKER_03: To throw in one more.
26:06
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, absolutely.
26:08
SPEAKER_02: That was delicious.
26:09
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
26:11
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
26:11
SPEAKER_02: So I am curious, and I don't know if you've ever answered this question before, but what got you into this journey of analyzing, collecting, and just grouping data to share it with the market?
26:26
SPEAKER_02: Where did that start?
26:28
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, I I don't know.
26:29
SPEAKER_03: It just um I mean, I started a blog, I guess.
26:32
SPEAKER_03: Um, and I mean, as an appraiser, I've been appraising for, you know, 23 years now, I think.
26:37
SPEAKER_03: And um so there was always that aspect of analyzing.
26:41
SPEAKER_03: But then I think learning how to graph and it just opened up this whole new world about visualizing data.
26:46
SPEAKER_03: And then starting a blog 17 years ago, that helped me put stuff out there consistently.
26:51
SPEAKER_03: So and it just snowballs because you're like, oh, what about this?
26:54
SPEAKER_03: What about that?
26:55
SPEAKER_03: Or you know, you start putting stuff out there publicly.
26:57
SPEAKER_03: People ask you questions and go, well, you know, what about this one thing?
27:00
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, you know, a lot of times I know the answers, but other times I'm like, that's a really good question.
27:04
SPEAKER_03: I need to find the answer.
27:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
27:05
SPEAKER_02: Now when I see graphs, I'm like, oh my God, Ryan would think this is so cool.
27:08
SPEAKER_02: I sent you that one on bees, the swarms over the last 10 years.
27:12
SPEAKER_02: I'm like, ugh, it's just really cool to see, to see the data.
27:15
SPEAKER_02: It really does tell a story that you can't spin.
27:19
SPEAKER_02: I mean, obviously you can take a piece of it and spin it any way you want, but when you're looking at the whole picture, it's really hard to deny, you know, the cyclical history and seasonal trends and everything else that we see.
27:30
SPEAKER_02: Speaking of, I wanted to ask in your experience, what you've seen in the Sacramento market, and I guess that's a national thing too, was there any other time you can recall that there was such a sharp incline after a softening market when we hit that pandemic and rates went up?
27:47
SPEAKER_02: Have you have we ever experienced anything like that in real estate?
27:52
SPEAKER_03: I mean, there nothing like that.
27:54
SPEAKER_03: That's the most aggressive market we've ever had.
27:56
SPEAKER_03: Rates went below 3% and it did things that shouldn't have been done, you know.
28:01
SPEAKER_03: And so um but it yeah, it was really aggressive, 2004, 2005, portions of that.
28:06
SPEAKER_00: Are you still seeing data that that that represents like the m'es of the market that have this phenomenal mortgage and no need, no reason to sell?
28:16
SPEAKER_05: Like a lot of us.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: People holding on to people holding on to property and that's showing up in the data, right?
28:21
SPEAKER_00: I mean that's sure that's your your decreased inventory.
28:24
SPEAKER_03: And we're not even back to 2019 levels of the number of active listings, which that would be sort of a normal baseline year.
28:31
SPEAKER_03: You know, we're missing, I think, about 800 from even that amount.
28:34
SPEAKER_03: So people are like, there's an oversupply.
28:35
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, gosh, we aren't even back to 2019.
28:38
SPEAKER_03: In Sacramento County alone, there were um, you know, almost 10,000 more listings in 2008 than what we have right now.
28:46
SPEAKER_03: And so it's just um, or that's the region.
28:48
SPEAKER_03: I think I'm um um inflating my stats, but so it's like, yeah, we're we're actually really low historically.
28:54
SPEAKER_03: And so that's that's part of the problem.
28:56
SPEAKER_03: You're you're the problem, Dan.
28:57
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's you.
28:59
SPEAKER_02: It's me too.
28:59
SPEAKER_03: And it's me.
29:00
SPEAKER_02: Hashtag all of us.
29:01
SPEAKER_02: I think I think we're gonna continue to see the ramifications and consequences of that for years.
29:06
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
29:06
SPEAKER_03: We're in this for a long time.
29:08
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
29:08
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's what we're learning because I I remember giving presentations four years ago and being like, hey, the market has um, you know, it started to correct in 2022 and hold on, because in a normal time, you know, we might have a couple years where volume is down and then it returns, and then here we are four years later.
29:26
SPEAKER_03: It hasn't been able to return because we don't have enough supply to help that happen.
29:31
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
29:31
SPEAKER_02: And it doesn't make sense for people to take on a payment that they're gonna be able to afford half the house they currently own.
29:37
SPEAKER_02: I I suspect that the driving force of the market for the next five to ten years is gonna continue to be the life events that that people have to move for, the downsizers, the death, the diaper, all the things that we need to do.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: It's really interesting too, like on my side now.
29:52
SPEAKER_00: Like I'm starting to lean into like that developer world and see the kind of the the future through their eyes and how they've changed the types of projects they're building.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: Like you're actually seeing these these projects now going in where it's retail down below and the condos are above, um, where maybe now it's not so much of a burden on just the the homeowners, but there's a little bit of a trade, you know, a little bit of a one hand shaking the other in regards to having some retail space below.
30:20
SPEAKER_00: And even that whole that whole like town center kind of community idea where these these central gathering places um instead of these just monstrosity mega communities.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I live in a massive master plan community, right?
30:33
SPEAKER_00: And uh you're seeing you're seeing a desire of the consumer to kind of get back to being smaller, um, which is very interesting, right?
30:40
SPEAKER_00: Because smaller is usually gonna be a little more expensive.
30:43
SPEAKER_00: Like, you know, I I reference it all the time, but like in Whitney Ranch, like we're getting a brand new nugget.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: It's actually opening in two days, it's opening on Wednesday.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's exciting.
30:51
SPEAKER_00: Everyone's super excited for it.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: They're building out this shopping center, you know.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: But on the social media, it's like, oh, perfect, we're getting another Chipotle, we're getting another.
30:58
SPEAKER_00: And you know, it's people are kind of belly aching about all these things, and I'm like, hey, like, I now have conveniences that are walking distance, and like, and I don't give, I don't really give a shit because the nugget makes it all worthwhile anyways, right?
31:08
SPEAKER_00: Like, I walk my dogs with my wife over to the nugget and get a cup of coffee and be super happy.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: Um, but it's it's just it's really wild seeing the like the dichotomy of of opinions regarding that.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: Oh, we have a chipotle, we have 10 chipotles in this town now or whatever.
31:22
SPEAKER_03: And I'm like, well, you know, you you can't please everyone.
31:25
SPEAKER_03: And while we're on the subject, let's just say that people online, whether it's next door or Facebook groups, they just need to learn that there's a difference between like a car, um, you know, um, you know, a boom from a car and a gun.
31:38
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
31:39
SPEAKER_03: Because it's like everyone's like, did you hear that?
31:41
SPEAKER_01: Did you hear that?
31:42
SPEAKER_03: The hood of Rockland or just like, dude, this isn't just like a massive like, you know, AK 47 fest.
31:48
SPEAKER_03: Like there, there are cars that drive around that make loud noises.
31:51
SPEAKER_03: I just want to say that.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: And I think generally speaking, kind of on top of your point as well, like we are kind of moving to where like with the boom of like social media and all that, it was like the squeaky wheel always got the the grease.
32:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're kind of just letting squeaky wheels be squeaky wheels now if if they're not qual, you know, if they're not quantified.
32:07
SPEAKER_00: Like if you're just bitching to bitch, fine.
32:10
SPEAKER_00: Go ahead.
32:11
SPEAKER_00: No one's even paying attention anymore.
32:12
SPEAKER_00: You're just annoying.
32:13
SPEAKER_02: God, they they are they got too much spotlight to begin with.
32:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, people just want to.
32:17
SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of people who just want to complain.
32:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
32:20
SPEAKER_02: And they're gonna complain about everything.
32:21
SPEAKER_00: And that's their space where they can have a fake avatar and a fake name and whatever.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: I mean I die a trap, sorry.
32:26
SPEAKER_02: Okay, it's all right.
32:27
SPEAKER_02: Okay, we'll bring us back because there has been a question that has come up, and I know you've answered this question several times.
32:32
SPEAKER_02: I believe you even had a whole blog article about it, but it has come up for me in conversation several times just in the last week.
32:39
SPEAKER_02: And I call it the great real estate debate.
32:41
SPEAKER_02: Does a closet make a room?
32:44
SPEAKER_03: This is a good question.
32:46
SPEAKER_03: Philosophy 101 should be covering this at SAC State.
32:49
SPEAKER_03: Um So I mean, yes and no.
32:52
SPEAKER_03: Okay, I would say first and foremost, the market expects a closet to be there for new construction.
32:57
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
32:57
SPEAKER_03: But imagine you have a Victorian home downtown that has zero closets, is that a zero bedroom house?
33:03
SPEAKER_03: Or imagine I'm in Whitney Ranch and I remove all the closets because I'm not thinking that, you know, is that a zero bedroom house all of a sudden?
33:12
SPEAKER_03: The answer is no.
33:13
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
33:14
SPEAKER_03: And so what I think sometimes we glorify the closet to a point where we say that the closet is so holy and it's def and it defines everything, you know, that we're no longer looking at the market.
33:28
SPEAKER_03: I know.
33:29
SPEAKER_02: Like I feel like rooms just have this gender like crisis.
33:32
SPEAKER_02: Like they can't identify what they are if they don't have a closet.
33:34
SPEAKER_02: They just don't know what they are.
33:36
SPEAKER_03: And then there's the Narnia closet.
33:38
SPEAKER_03: There's a lot to consider.
33:39
SPEAKER_03: But but I I mean I'd say that yes, the closet is really important.
33:43
SPEAKER_03: Um, when there's not a closet, it's often the sign that this was, you know, maybe an addition that wasn't permitted.
33:51
SPEAKER_03: And so that's that could be a red flag.
33:53
SPEAKER_03: Or on Acreage, there might not be a closet there because the septic tank allows for three bedrooms and not four.
34:01
SPEAKER_03: And man, people can get into trouble.
34:03
SPEAKER_03: They're like, they add a closet, four-bedroom house, and then that sounds like a lawsuit as a non-lawyer.
34:08
SPEAKER_03: And so so we but we have to think what does the market expect?
34:11
SPEAKER_03: And if the era architecture, mid-century modern or something else, it doesn't have closets, then you know, so be it.
34:18
SPEAKER_03: You know, there is a technical two-bedroom house um that I appraised recently.
34:23
SPEAKER_03: The it did not have closets.
34:25
SPEAKER_03: Um, I was not gonna call it a zero bedroom, though.
34:28
SPEAKER_03: And so it's like we have to be smart enough to talk about that stuff, but then also just really recognize, well, why isn't there a closet if if it's open to the rest of the house?
34:38
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, that's an office, that's a den.
34:40
SPEAKER_03: It has French doors and no closet.
34:42
SPEAKER_03: Um like it just, you know, a bedroom has to have egress to the outside, a window of adequate size or a door.
34:49
SPEAKER_03: And so sometimes like I've gone to a house and the window is tiny, and it's like it has to be at least, I think, is 5.6 square feet or something like that.
34:57
SPEAKER_03: But in just and so it's like if it doesn't meet those basic things, it can't be a called bedroom.
35:01
SPEAKER_03: Or someone reached out this morning via email, they're like, hey, the bedroom opens up to the garage.
35:06
SPEAKER_03: Uh like code doesn't allow that.
35:08
SPEAKER_03: Like and so but it's also a simple cost to cure.
35:13
SPEAKER_03: And so it probably wasn't built that way.
35:15
SPEAKER_03: Someone was like, I'm tired of walking the groceries around, I park my car in the garage, and then I gotta get in, you know.
35:20
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
35:20
SPEAKER_03: And so um, that's a simple cost to cure.
35:23
SPEAKER_03: And so if this was a three-bedroom house with that, you know, one bedroom opening, um, I've got to recognize that there's this, there is this extra space.
35:31
SPEAKER_03: It's not a two-bedroom, like, you know, but I can't really call that a third bedroom, but you know, putting up sheetrock there is not gonna be expensive.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: So I I think so the answer to your question is appraiser's discretion.
35:43
SPEAKER_03: Well, it it always depends, right?
35:45
SPEAKER_02: It always depends.
35:46
SPEAKER_02: What I'm hearing is that um no, a closet doesn't make a room, but there are other considerations that need to be those boxes need to be checked before we can definitively make a non-room.
36:01
SPEAKER_02: Also not.
36:02
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we go.
36:03
SPEAKER_02: Then we're going to triple negatives here.
36:05
SPEAKER_03: The market expects not make it.
36:07
SPEAKER_03: The market expects a closet to be there in the vast bulk of cases.
36:11
SPEAKER_03: But when they're not there, it's silly for us to say, here's this rule that I'm imposing on this house, because the market probably doesn't see it that way.
36:20
SPEAKER_03: And there's reasons, reasons why we would look and go, this is clearly two bedrooms or three bedrooms, but this where we kind of have to know a little bit about code and you know, and be like, hey, I I can't call this a bedroom.
36:30
SPEAKER_03: There's not adequate egress through a window or a door.
36:34
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, or they do an addition on the back of the house where the bedroom window was, and all of a sudden I can't call that a bedroom because you need direct egress from the bedroom to the backyard or wherever.
36:45
SPEAKER_03: And so, you know, these are it's sort of that place where everything, you know, comes together.
36:50
SPEAKER_03: We gotta know a little about about it all.
36:52
SPEAKER_02: So but yeah, it's not so also the grace does continue because I feel like it's gonna be a case-by-case situation.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, I and I can give you another one.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: Like we did a um we did a uh an attached ADU.
37:04
SPEAKER_00: Oh pretty crazy.
37:06
SPEAKER_02: So do they call that just like a separate dwelling unit?
37:09
SPEAKER_00: If it's attached to AD.
37:11
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, so you we built you built a hallway that you can close off so you can still be separate.
37:17
SPEAKER_02: Interesting.
37:18
SPEAKER_00: But it's yeah, I mean it's it's it's wild.
37:20
SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's the the the creative people who find loopholes and ways to do things are are are just that.
37:26
SPEAKER_00: I gotta respect that.
37:27
SPEAKER_03: That's how you win in today's market.
37:28
SPEAKER_03: Uh you gotta be you have to be creative.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: And I actually think like the today's youth like just they thirst for for that creativity.
37:38
SPEAKER_00: They love it.
37:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they do.
37:39
SPEAKER_00: Maybe 30 years from now we'll look back and be like, ooh, that might have been a creative stretch.
37:44
SPEAKER_02: A lot of contractors that I talk with speak on how you can look at a home and understand what decade it was built in based off the trend, right?
37:51
SPEAKER_02: Like we all know the the quintessential 90s tile or like the 70s rock wall.
37:56
SPEAKER_02: Like there are so many things, and I feel like we're gonna look back and see the modern farmhouse and be like, oh, we know when that was built.
38:02
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, same same for all the creative millennial, millennial gray flooring and and you know, cottage cheese ceiling texture.
38:10
SPEAKER_03: You know, that's one thing I think that will never come back, though.
38:13
SPEAKER_03: Like some things will pop back into existence.
38:15
SPEAKER_03: The pop bloom pop.
38:16
SPEAKER_03: Like, you know, mom jeans, they're back, you know, but like, dude, cottage cheese ceiling texture not not comfortable.
38:23
SPEAKER_02: No, nobody wants that.
38:24
SPEAKER_03: I sure hope not.
38:25
SPEAKER_03: I would bet money that it's not, but I I I really hope I'm right.
38:28
SPEAKER_02: Unless somebody out there decides to make it cool again and then it just becomes a trend.
38:31
SPEAKER_02: But who knows?
38:32
SPEAKER_03: If so if Justin Bieber had it.
38:34
SPEAKER_02: Okay, can we talk about that really quick?
38:36
SPEAKER_00: We have to I'm just I'm gonna be a fly on the wall for this.
38:39
SPEAKER_00: Right.
38:39
SPEAKER_02: So we we need to talk about the Jay Bebes Coachella performance because there is a great divide there again on whether or not it was lazy, or if you look at the other side of the coin, he has, and this is my this is where I fall to.
38:54
SPEAKER_02: He created a following and was really introduced to the world through his like YouTube covers.
39:01
SPEAKER_02: That's kind of how he got discovered.
39:03
SPEAKER_02: And so to have this full circle moment where he is finally headlining Coachella after the you know the last 10 years of like health problems and canceled tours, and now he is doing his dream show, headlining Coachella, and he can keep it so simple and so engaged that he doesn't have to have all of this fluff and you know, stage dancers and everything else.
39:26
SPEAKER_02: It's just him, a computer, and his old YouTube videos.
39:30
SPEAKER_02: And he's even making fun of himself, you know, he's pulling up clips from when the paparazzi is harassing him and he's going on tangents.
39:37
SPEAKER_02: And he is able to not only, you know, poke fun at the chaos and craziness of his life in the spotlight, but also have a hundred and twenty-five thousand people engaged every step of the way, singing every word to his song.
39:50
SPEAKER_00: Which is it sounds to me like kind of how I how I kind of define art is like it's it's it's however you want it to be, right?
39:57
SPEAKER_00: Like so people are gonna people who are probably not fans are gonna say it's lazy.
40:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
40:01
SPEAKER_00: People who are huge fans are gonna say it's the most creative genius thing ever, right?
40:04
SPEAKER_00: Because he was labeled essentially a child prodigy when he was coming up, yeah.
40:07
SPEAKER_02: Right.
40:08
SPEAKER_02: Well, he was like 12 when he was discovered or something.
40:10
SPEAKER_02: So it's crazy.
40:11
SPEAKER_00: I think you know, I but I think, yeah, from what I understand, I I knew nothing of this subject.
40:15
SPEAKER_03: He did a he did a duet with his YouTube video, so his younger self and then his self currently.
40:21
SPEAKER_03: It was awesome.
40:22
SPEAKER_03: It was it was interesting.
40:23
SPEAKER_03: That's pretty creative.
40:24
SPEAKER_02: It is.
40:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and my my goal next year is to be a um you know Coachella influencer.
40:29
SPEAKER_03: So I'm watching wearing foil and stuff.
40:33
SPEAKER_00: What I want to see is when Ryan does the the talking head over his stats versus 10 years ago's talking head over the stats.
40:41
SPEAKER_00: And like and then they start arguing with each other, maybe maybe there's just there's not a market for that.
40:46
SPEAKER_03: So yeah.
40:48
SPEAKER_02: Not yet.
40:49
SPEAKER_02: Not yet.
40:50
SPEAKER_02: But we don't know.
40:50
SPEAKER_02: That's right.
40:51
SPEAKER_02: I'm curious what meme Ryan is going to make out of the Justin Bieber concert.
40:57
SPEAKER_02: Like, how is that going to apply to new data?
41:00
SPEAKER_02: I know.
41:00
SPEAKER_02: I'm on the edge of my seat.
41:02
SPEAKER_02: I know it's gonna come.
41:03
SPEAKER_02: I don't know yet.
41:03
SPEAKER_03: I'm speaking in your office tomorrow, actually.
41:06
SPEAKER_02: I know, I get a double dose of Ryan.
41:08
SPEAKER_03: The Beebs is definitely showing up.
41:09
SPEAKER_03: I don't know how yet, but he is absolutely gonna be there.
41:12
SPEAKER_00: So I my my favorite, and this is gonna lead us into the next the next topic, the uh the appraisal or AI, because uh I I have a feeling I I know where Ryan's gonna lean on this as far as AI.
41:23
SPEAKER_00: But Ryan, Ryan quotes, you know, the uh that Zillow can't smell the cats that lived in the world.
41:27
SPEAKER_02: One of our all-time favorite.
41:28
SPEAKER_02: I think it's been like nationally quoting.
41:31
SPEAKER_00: It's one of the greatest.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: But so so Ryan, what do you where do you see AI coming into your world um and influencing it?
41:37
SPEAKER_00: I think it's almost undeniable.
41:38
SPEAKER_00: It's undeniable in my industry in the production world.
41:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
41:41
SPEAKER_00: I think the realtors are starting to see it, whether they like it or not, um come into their world and and everybody.
41:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, across across the world.
41:49
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
41:49
SPEAKER_03: No, AI is here to stay.
41:51
SPEAKER_03: And whether it's a bubble or not, people can debate over that.
41:54
SPEAKER_03: But even if it was and it pops, that doesn't mean the AI goes away entirely.
41:58
SPEAKER_03: We've sort of opened Pandora's box, so to speak.
42:01
SPEAKER_03: And so, yeah, it'll influence my profession.
42:03
SPEAKER_03: Um, I mean, even before the AI craze, you've been seeing more sort of, you know, data and appraisal waivers.
42:10
SPEAKER_03: And so it's sort of, I think it's a tough market for appraisers, you know, but it just underscores that reality.
42:15
SPEAKER_03: Like, hey, knowing value is so important.
42:18
SPEAKER_03: And I'd say, you know, um, I'm hearing a lot more people say, you know, but Zilla says, but they'll say, but ChatGPT says.
42:25
SPEAKER_03: And and so um, I've gotten that a few times with um, hey, ChatGPT says that um, you know, here's the return on investment for an ADU, uh, which is interesting.
42:36
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, I was like, did it read my blog?
42:38
SPEAKER_03: And you know, I didn't tell what, but or um, you know, I had someone reading.
42:42
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, you know, I had someone recently give me a spreadsheet and it was really interesting, like props to them.
42:48
SPEAKER_03: They did a great job on their homework, but you know, they spent$150,000 on improvement, you know, and and um they had a spreadsheet and said, and here's what you know chat GPT says the return on investment.
43:00
SPEAKER_03: And most of the categories were like 80 to 90 percent.
43:03
SPEAKER_03: And I was like, oh, you know, I uh and so but I asked them, I said, hey, you know, while I was still at the property, you know, if the roof was$30,000, if you went to buy a house right now, would you honestly pay$27,000 for that new roof?
43:19
SPEAKER_03: No.
43:19
SPEAKER_03: And so I think that um, you know, roof and HVAC AC, all that stuff, like the human has to go in there and be like, hey, like, look, there's a difference, and I don't know where AI got its data from.
43:30
SPEAKER_03: Um that is a problem, I think, right now, with you know, sometimes measuring the time for ROI and things like that.
43:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
43:38
SPEAKER_00: Over the course of 50 years, yes, your roof is gonna that new roof is gonna pay the same.
43:42
SPEAKER_03: Those lists aren't talking about 50 years.
43:44
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
43:44
SPEAKER_03: That would be a great list.
43:45
SPEAKER_03: But but I think that yeah, AI will infiltrate everything relating to value.
43:50
SPEAKER_03: Um, but there's I I'm on Team Human.
43:53
SPEAKER_03: Um, I'll admit, I'm not a fan of what we're seeing with AI and the potential for the 1% companies and these mega wealthy people get even more wealthy and to strip away um, you know, lower jobs, uh, whether white collar or even blue collar.
44:11
SPEAKER_03: And and I I I don't like that idea for size for society.
44:15
SPEAKER_03: You can call me a dinosaur or old school, but I'm on Timmy.
44:19
SPEAKER_00: I think we're all aware, like we all saw the potential risk in okay, well, if you if you if you pay money to these companies that are providing these AI bots and and things that that now their bots gonna give you a little more attention or a little more credibility, like that's a slippery, slippery slope.
44:36
SPEAKER_00: And and here we are.
44:37
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're there.
44:38
SPEAKER_00: Like you're already seeing the requirements, you know, how to how to be more attractive on chat, how to be more attractive to grok.
44:45
SPEAKER_00: Like yeah, and you know, at the end of the day, yeah, if you if you send them a check with some money, they're gonna make they're gonna they're gonna find you.
44:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
44:53
SPEAKER_02: Well, I think that there's uh a lot going on there in that world, and I don't know enough to talk about it, but the things that I've heard is that, you know, the profit they thought they were gonna make isn't adding up, and there's a lot of bills that are coming due and also the energy levels that it's take.
45:07
SPEAKER_02: I think that there's gonna be years of unfolding discoveries for us to realize how it's actually impacting us as the human consumer.
45:16
SPEAKER_02: But I think I also side with the whatever you want to call it, archaic side.
45:20
SPEAKER_02: I call it the human side because there really is no way that anything can replace the human connection.
45:26
SPEAKER_02: This human experience of being in front of each other, talking to each other, going into a house, being able to visually, physically, all your senses experience the house, the smells of the cats, like these are all things that AI will never be able to take into account.
45:41
SPEAKER_00: I think deep down we all know that it's going to evolve.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: We just don't know where or how.
45:47
SPEAKER_02: Right.
45:48
SPEAKER_03: Um, I've seen Terminator too.
45:50
SPEAKER_03: I know exactly.
45:52
SPEAKER_01: If we're cultured enough, we all know how it ends eventually.
45:55
SPEAKER_00: Everyone every everyone references references Terminator.
45:58
SPEAKER_00: I go back to war games.
45:59
SPEAKER_02: War games?
46:00
SPEAKER_00: Where they where it was where the computer was playing tic-tac-toe.
46:02
SPEAKER_02: Oh my gosh, that's like 80s.
46:04
SPEAKER_03: Is that with Matthew Broderick?
46:06
SPEAKER_03: I believe.
46:06
SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
46:07
SPEAKER_03: I'm confusing that with Daryl.
46:08
SPEAKER_03: Do you remember that movie?
46:09
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
46:09
SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
46:10
SPEAKER_02: I didn't see Daryl.
46:11
SPEAKER_02: I saw War Game.
46:12
SPEAKER_02: Fred Savage.
46:13
SPEAKER_00: Oh, that was that was the Nintendo game.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: That was the yeah.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
46:16
SPEAKER_00: That was no, what was that?
46:17
SPEAKER_02: Well, the science movie where theyird science.
46:19
SPEAKER_02: Weird science.
46:20
SPEAKER_02: That was the okay, that was my okay.
46:23
SPEAKER_03: My thing on AI, though, is um, yeah, it's here to stay.
46:26
SPEAKER_03: We should definitely invest in it.
46:27
SPEAKER_03: But I think some people use it in a way they it's like they're exporting everything to AI, which I have major concerns about, but it's like we can't export our relationships.
46:37
SPEAKER_03: And I think so in business, nothing replaces relationship.
46:41
SPEAKER_03: And we can never put efficiency of systems over actually building relationship with people.
46:47
SPEAKER_03: And so I think the people that build relationship are are the ones that win, you know.
46:52
SPEAKER_03: Um and I don't care how efficient someone's system is, if they're sending me an unsolicited email or something in the mail, like that doesn't mean anything to me compared to the person who's reaching out and saying, hey, I've got your best interest at heart.
47:05
SPEAKER_03: I know you and I want to hang out with you.
47:07
SPEAKER_02: Like that's you know, and I I also worry about the people who take what comes out of AI as infallible.
47:15
SPEAKER_02: They don't question it.
47:16
SPEAKER_02: Oh my gosh.
47:16
SPEAKER_02: And so they they they get this information and they praise it as ultimate truth.
47:21
SPEAKER_02: And that that is the scariest part.
47:23
SPEAKER_02: And it kind of goes back to what you were talking about how you know somebody put in this information in chat said, here's your return on investment.
47:30
SPEAKER_02: Well, from the buyer's perspective, it there's never been a dollar-for-dollar return on your home.
47:37
SPEAKER_02: There's things that are expected maintenance that you're supposed to take care of.
47:40
SPEAKER_02: And yes, having updated, you know, a new roof, a new HVAC, it does add to your value, but it's not a dollar-for-dollar return.
47:47
SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
47:47
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's the discrepancy that I often find myself in, because I do represent buyers and sellers, and I want my seller to get the most money, but I also want my buyer to get the most credits and the most consideration.
47:58
SPEAKER_02: So it's a it's a weird paradox that's a lot of things.
48:02
SPEAKER_00: The consumer confidence in AI is almost is like falsely inflated.
48:06
SPEAKER_00: Right.
48:07
SPEAKER_00: It's frightening.
48:08
SPEAKER_00: It's a false hope.
48:08
SPEAKER_00: Uh to the point where, I mean, how many emails do you get?
48:11
SPEAKER_00: And and unfortunately, we just sent one last week that was AI generated.
48:15
SPEAKER_00: It was a mass email.
48:16
SPEAKER_00: So I mean, it's, you know, I mean, we're not putting a ton of credibility in it.
48:18
SPEAKER_00: But it was it it had a redundancy in it that was like just horrible, in my opinion.
48:23
SPEAKER_02: I'm like, did anybody proofread that?
48:25
SPEAKER_02: Nobody proofread this.
48:26
SPEAKER_00: Like, so we so we've we've created this this false sense of security and trust.
48:32
SPEAKER_02: Blind trust, yeah.
48:33
SPEAKER_00: Right.
48:33
SPEAKER_00: And and you go going back to the T T the Terminator 2 thing, like, yeah, eventually it's gonna know that you trust it too much.
48:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
48:40
SPEAKER_00: You're creating creating a lot of pretty big data.
48:43
SPEAKER_02: Well, let's hope we're not alive to see that.
48:44
SPEAKER_02: Sorry, son, you might be.
48:46
SPEAKER_02: Um Okay.
48:47
SPEAKER_02: So I want to switch gears a little bit here because you are a you're a Sacramento native, right?
48:53
SPEAKER_02: No.
48:53
SPEAKER_02: No, no, you're from Southern California originally.
48:55
SPEAKER_02: That's why you have that cool swab about you.
48:58
SPEAKER_02: Um I do like to know.
49:01
SPEAKER_03: I'm not sure my uh kids think the same thing, but I'll take that as a compliment.
49:04
SPEAKER_02: I do like to know.
49:05
SPEAKER_02: Um, are there what are some upcoming projects that are happening in Sacramento that have you really excited?
49:11
SPEAKER_03: Um I think it'll be cool to see the rail yards develop.
49:15
SPEAKER_03: Um you know, finally, right?
49:17
SPEAKER_03: You know, it's been talked about forever.
49:19
SPEAKER_03: Um I'm excited about um the soccer stadium in Rancho Cordova.
49:23
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
49:24
SPEAKER_03: Um I'm excited for um Rancho Cordova to develop more.
49:28
SPEAKER_03: Rancho's on fire.
49:29
SPEAKER_03: I you know what?
49:30
SPEAKER_03: I honestly for once.
49:33
SPEAKER_03: I keep I keep I keep saying this, though.
49:35
SPEAKER_03: I think a lot of people in real estate they recognize Roseville as the hub for you know development, residential.
49:42
SPEAKER_03: I'm going, Rancho um is very consistently one or two, and I think Roseville last year beat Rancho by like five sales or something.
49:51
SPEAKER_03: And so um I'm really excited about that.
49:53
SPEAKER_03: Um I'll say um one thing I'm leaning into this year is concerts and channel 24 in Midtown is uh an awesome facility.
50:01
SPEAKER_03: I'm actually talking about this with Paul.
50:03
SPEAKER_03: I'm actually seeing uh Pennywise, they're coming to Sacramento in May.
50:07
SPEAKER_03: They you know, the band that was played.
50:08
SPEAKER_03: And so um yeah, I I've been there maybe two or three times l last year.
50:11
SPEAKER_03: And so um just trying to go to shows.
50:13
SPEAKER_03: We saw Switchfoot a couple weeks ago and finding affordable shows.
50:17
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
50:17
SPEAKER_03: Right?
50:18
SPEAKER_03: I mean the main street's gonna be.
50:19
SPEAKER_02: The Rockley Quarry has some great artists that comes there, and the and it's it's great because it's an outdoor venue and the tickets are pretty affordable.
50:27
SPEAKER_02: Like I've loved going there, but I want to get into some channel 24.
50:31
SPEAKER_02: Channel 24 is cool.
50:32
SPEAKER_03: Uh you kind of I don't okay.
50:33
SPEAKER_03: I I'm cheap seats guy, which is technically no seats.
50:36
SPEAKER_03: I'm I'll stand there all night.
50:37
SPEAKER_03: That's fine.
50:38
SPEAKER_03: I'm not paying 200 bucks to sit in a chair on the balcony.
50:41
SPEAKER_03: Nope.
50:41
SPEAKER_03: I'm gonna sit, you know, or stand there um and rock out closer to the band.
50:46
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, but but that that kind of stuff.
50:48
SPEAKER_03: Um there's probably other stuff, but that's that's what I can think about now.
50:51
SPEAKER_02: So that's cool.
50:52
SPEAKER_02: I like that.
50:53
SPEAKER_02: A lot of see, I think that there's a lot coming to and I well, I I want to touch on what you talked about with people thinking of Roseville being the hub historically.
51:01
SPEAKER_02: I think that what has kind of cast a shade on Rancho is that there's more older development than there is newer development.
51:11
SPEAKER_02: Where you look at Roseville and it and it's kind of the new thing.
51:14
SPEAKER_00: You're speaking of the residential housing market.
51:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
51:16
SPEAKER_02: And so I think it plus on a commercial level, you know, there really hasn't been any new projects out there.
51:23
SPEAKER_02: Roseville, they saw malls, they saw shopping centers, you know, Rancho, they have new communities in the residential realm that have been built over the last couple decades.
51:32
SPEAKER_02: But as far as infrastructure that people can go do experience, and there really hasn't been anything there.
51:38
SPEAKER_02: So to see them coming up with like the stadium and stuff, I think that's gonna be awesome for Rancho.
51:43
SPEAKER_00: Well, the sun that sunrise mall project.
51:45
SPEAKER_00: Oh, as we hear more and the renderings of that are awesome.
51:49
SPEAKER_00: Exciting.
51:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
51:50
SPEAKER_03: Okay, I like okay, uh just let me be the pessimist here.
51:54
SPEAKER_03: Every year, every year we hear about the sunrise mall.
51:57
SPEAKER_03: It's gonna happen.
51:58
SPEAKER_03: It's sort of like the kings are gonna win the championship this year, man.
52:02
SPEAKER_03: And it's hard to stomach, but it at some point, at some point, we're like when do you give up on a dream?
52:07
SPEAKER_03: I will believe it when I see it.
52:08
SPEAKER_03: And I and I wanna see it.
52:09
SPEAKER_03: I want to see it so bad.
52:11
SPEAKER_00: But just like, you know, malls are malls are just you know, a request.
52:17
SPEAKER_02: I will say from what I've heard, um, the it's really the owners who are the stick in the mud there.
52:24
SPEAKER_02: Um because I and I think it's there's a lot that we could go into that, but it's really the owners who have been holding it up.
52:30
SPEAKER_02: The city of uh ran or the city of Citrus Heights is ready to go, right?
52:34
SPEAKER_02: Which is really cool.
52:34
SPEAKER_02: But I in that model where they have the mixed retail and um hotels and the shopping and then the outdoor space, there are so many models of this that I've personally been to that are just so awesome.
52:48
SPEAKER_02: And the community loves it.
52:50
SPEAKER_02: Like I used to live near an outdoor center like that in Southern California, and it was so cool.
52:55
SPEAKER_02: Like you could go there and let your kids play on the playground or shop or eat or dine or stay.
53:01
SPEAKER_02: There's so many options.
53:02
SPEAKER_00: And that is exactly what Siticites needs to bring that space back to life because it was such an epicenter of life and community when I was young and well, you've had a lot of like the Rosevilles, the Rocklands, the El Dorado Hills pulling people outward from that from that hub.
53:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a new shiny thing.
53:20
SPEAKER_02: It's old, it's dilapidated, and it's hard to justify.
53:24
SPEAKER_02: Why would somebody want to invest more money as a homeowner?
53:28
SPEAKER_02: You know, I want to look for what's happening around that's gonna help my home appreciate.
53:31
SPEAKER_00: I can tell you this as somebody who for the last two years has had to commute my child from Rockland to Rancho Cordova, you know, down Hazel, sunrise.
53:41
SPEAKER_00: I mean, that is that is a miserable trip.
53:44
SPEAKER_02: At least it's a straight shot.
53:46
SPEAKER_03: Sunrise is tough, man.
53:47
SPEAKER_03: It's a lot of people.
53:50
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, hazel's a lot better.
53:52
SPEAKER_00: Five to five thirty, four thirty.
53:54
SPEAKER_00: Oh yeah, yeah.
53:55
SPEAKER_03: Don't don't be found there at that time.
53:56
SPEAKER_00: So hey, I I can't tell you how excited I am.
53:59
SPEAKER_00: My daughter got her driver's license, even though I'm terrified that she will now be making that drive.
54:03
SPEAKER_00: It's such a game changer though.
54:05
SPEAKER_00: Oh my god.
54:06
SPEAKER_03: Oh our kids are uh 22 and uh almost 20 here, and yeah, it's it's both in college, uh so different.
54:13
SPEAKER_02: Are you officially an empty nester?
54:15
SPEAKER_03: No, they're both living at home, um, which which is good.
54:19
SPEAKER_03: Um you know, it rent is so expensive.
54:21
SPEAKER_03: It's crazy.
54:22
SPEAKER_03: And we're like, hey, you know, have a 401k, save money for retirement, invest, enjoy life, go travel, do some things, and especially like I feel like kids these days they're making up for what they lost during COVID.
54:34
SPEAKER_03: And so I just want to, I'm just continually like, I mean, if you want to move out, move.
54:39
SPEAKER_03: Dutch brothers at a time, right?
54:41
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
54:42
SPEAKER_03: They're uh hey, I'm a I'm a happy guy.
54:44
SPEAKER_03: I'm not Dutch brothers happy, you know.
54:47
SPEAKER_03: So we're always talking about that.
54:48
SPEAKER_00: Like, dude, it's just like I would I would love for the Dutch Brothers baristas to go, okay.
54:54
SPEAKER_00: This guy's 45.
54:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm not leaning into his car asking him how his day is because he doesn't want to walk in here.
55:01
SPEAKER_00: He does not want to answer that question.
55:03
SPEAKER_00: Or I want to like Heisman back into their window.
55:07
SPEAKER_02: Maybe that's the energy that you need, Dan.
55:10
SPEAKER_02: Maybe they're there for you.
55:11
SPEAKER_00: I don't need the Dutch Brothers Burista deciding what kind of energy I need.
55:15
SPEAKER_00: Let's be clear.
55:16
SPEAKER_03: I'll say I will say this though, with with my my little jab at uh Dutch Brothers, it's it is so attractive when there's joy and when there's authenticity.
55:26
SPEAKER_03: I just don't I'm just not ready for it at the counter when I binds it.
55:30
SPEAKER_03: I haven't had my coffee yet.
55:31
SPEAKER_03: I'm not ready either.
55:33
SPEAKER_03: Like I'm like, I guess I would rather have that than not in like depression.
55:38
SPEAKER_03: Like I'm in an emo band and I hate you in life, you know.
55:41
SPEAKER_03: Right.
55:43
SPEAKER_03: Hundred percent.
55:44
SPEAKER_02: Speaking of, remind me later.
55:45
SPEAKER_02: I gotta send you there's an emo realtor.
55:47
SPEAKER_02: Oh, I I've seen him.
55:48
SPEAKER_02: You've seen him.
55:49
SPEAKER_03: He's another writes his own stuff.
55:51
SPEAKER_02: Those songs are pretty impressive.
55:53
SPEAKER_03: I I thought for sure that was an AI thing.
55:55
SPEAKER_02: Well, maybe I don't know.
55:57
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
55:57
SPEAKER_02: But it's original.
55:58
SPEAKER_02: It's good though.
55:59
SPEAKER_03: It's really good.
56:00
SPEAKER_02: Highly entertaining.
56:01
SPEAKER_02: So you always have great advice.
56:04
SPEAKER_02: And I would love to know as it stands right now where we are with the current market in Sacramento, what advice do you have to offer for our buyers out there and then also for our sellers out there?
56:14
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think for buyers, I'd just say wait for the right house, but recognize that everyone else is waiting for that house too.
56:22
SPEAKER_03: And just be be ready to offer when that house comes on the market.
56:26
SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, you don't want to overpay in today's market.
56:29
SPEAKER_03: That shouldn't be an issue.
56:30
SPEAKER_03: Um if it's priced lower, you're not overpaying when it gets bit up, you know.
56:36
SPEAKER_03: But um I just say, yeah, um make sure that you know you have all your inspections because the market will allow you to do that today.
56:43
SPEAKER_03: In 2021, people are waiving everything.
56:45
SPEAKER_03: Like that's that's not a good situation.
56:48
SPEAKER_03: You know, have it all done.
56:49
SPEAKER_03: And um I think for sellers, on that note, they just have to realize that how picky buyers are and how sensitive they are about condition, price, location.
56:58
SPEAKER_03: And they're picky about getting into contract and staying in contract.
57:01
SPEAKER_03: So they're gonna walk if the seller starts playing games.
57:04
SPEAKER_03: So I'd say for sellers, price it right, but price it to the pendings.
57:08
SPEAKER_03: What is getting into contract right now?
57:10
SPEAKER_03: Not the highest sales from the past, especially if we've seen prices dip a little bit, then you know that's where the market's at today.
57:16
SPEAKER_03: And so um, you know, but sellers like you know, put your game face on and like just, you know, we want um we want properties that are um in good condition, button up the details if you can.
57:26
SPEAKER_03: Um it just shows so much better.
57:28
SPEAKER_03: It's like going on that first date, you know, you want to make that good impression.
57:31
SPEAKER_03: Um, and if you don't have the nice threads, that's fine.
57:34
SPEAKER_03: But yourself, but like I'm just saying that it helps to dress up a little bit.
57:38
SPEAKER_03: Just wash up.
57:39
SPEAKER_02: Show the store show the full story up front, like be transparent about where you're at.
57:44
SPEAKER_00: Do you have do you have do you see um pre pre-sale inspections?
57:48
SPEAKER_00: So sellers that are having home inspections and termite inspections done prior to going to the market.
57:52
SPEAKER_00: Do you see much of that influence on on the appraisal side?
57:55
SPEAKER_03: So uh sometimes people will do appraisals, um, but I I think, you know, I I I have mixed feelings about that.
58:02
SPEAKER_03: I'm like, hey, if you feel comfortable about value, there's probably no reason to get an appraisal.
58:06
SPEAKER_03: Um if the seller and the agent are really far apart, then maybe so.
58:09
SPEAKER_03: Um I like the Bay Area aspect of doing inspections up front, though, because it helps buyers make informed decisions.
58:16
SPEAKER_00: Um, but it's also a little bit it gives the seller a little bit of an advantage also because it gives the buyer less wiggle room for, you know, you get in a contract and then that report comes back, oh my gosh, you know, well, I think the the biggest thing for us that we see on that is it's there's there's a degree of a false sense of security because you never like on the construction side, you never know until these things are opened up.
58:40
SPEAKER_00: For sure.
58:41
SPEAKER_00: And obviously, I mean for us, the worst call to get is oh, your your guy missed this.
58:45
SPEAKER_00: And it was like, well, we were in the middle of a remodel.
58:47
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, how many walls did you knock down that we missed that we missed something was behind?
58:51
SPEAKER_00: Um but but I again, I mean, it it is a trend.
58:54
SPEAKER_00: It's um and I agree with you, I like it.
58:56
SPEAKER_00: I think the more that we know up front before we go to market, and the more that we're able to disclose, um, I think is better.
59:01
SPEAKER_00: A more informed buyer is a more confident buyer, and you're more likely to get to the finish line because I think that's been a big challenge in the last couple years is not just getting in contract, but staying in contract and completing contract, right?
59:13
SPEAKER_02: Aaron Ross Powell, I think it it I think it behooves both sides to have upfront inspections.
59:18
SPEAKER_02: It eliminates this waiting period of like, we don't know what's gonna come up, even when you think you know your house really well.
59:24
SPEAKER_02: Like, really, when was the last time you replaced all your dry rot, you know?
59:28
SPEAKER_02: And it also gives the seller the opportunity to say, do I want to address any of this before we go to market?
59:34
SPEAKER_02: Or am I gonna say, you know what, this is the condition we're in, and we're gonna price it according.
59:40
SPEAKER_02: And buyer, you know full well what you're getting into before you even write an offer.
59:44
SPEAKER_02: Saves everybody time.
59:45
SPEAKER_02: I I am all about up.
59:47
SPEAKER_00: And I'm always amazed at like the um the range between the buyer and seller, willing to, not willing to, wants, needs, all that.
59:55
SPEAKER_00: Like, because sometimes you'll have the seller that's like, no, I love this house so much, and when I sell it, I want it to be a clean slate for the new buyers.
1:00:03
SPEAKER_00: Where you have the other side of that coin, like, I'm absolutely not spending a dollar on this thing because I'm selling it.
1:00:07
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
1:00:08
SPEAKER_00: Right?
1:00:08
SPEAKER_00: And they're like, I can't get rid of this thing fast enough, and it's uh it's gonna sell as is, or I'm not even gonna look at your offer and everything in between.
1:00:14
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and that was till you know, sellers like, hey, you might want to sell as is, but it might not lend as is.
1:00:19
SPEAKER_03: And so just just be aware of that.
1:00:21
SPEAKER_03: And uh, but work with buyers.
1:00:23
SPEAKER_03: We're in a market of working with buyers, not you know, flexing on them like it's 2021.
1:00:27
SPEAKER_03: Well, hey man, offers are due at 3 p.m.
1:00:29
SPEAKER_03: today.
1:00:30
SPEAKER_03: And I'm gonna it's like, hey, we're we're not in that environment anymore.
1:00:33
SPEAKER_03: And so um, even when there's multiple bid situations, you know, buyers can still get concessions in a lot of cases.
1:00:41
SPEAKER_03: And so it's not like this, you know, even when there are multiple offers, it's not like it's going 20% over, you know, price, or it's not going over 20% over value unless it was priced 20% too low.
1:00:52
SPEAKER_03: And of course it is, you know.
1:00:54
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, for sure.
1:00:55
SPEAKER_02: That's a great way to it's the hardest part about this business is dealing with the people and all the personalities that come along with it.
1:01:01
SPEAKER_02: Because it is very, very fun sometimes when people get stuck on principle rather than coming to you know, and yeah, and to it to an extent, you can if your relationship with your client's good enough, you can say, Hey, I'd rather not work with these people.
1:01:13
SPEAKER_03: Let's not take this offer because I think technology companies have underestimated how personal real estate is.
1:01:21
SPEAKER_03: And they everyone has this idea for here's how I'm gonna make real estate so efficient, but what they're not accounting for is how emotional and relational it is.
1:01:29
SPEAKER_03: And I've seen it across the board.
1:01:30
SPEAKER_03: I don't know that any tech company has really seriously considered that.
1:01:35
SPEAKER_03: And so or like how would you consider that, you know?
1:01:38
SPEAKER_03: But um and so it's an interesting thing to watch.
1:01:41
SPEAKER_02: You'd have to have your clients take a full personality test and then be scored on all this stuff, and then have an AI that's curated specifically to catering to that type of personality throughout the process.
1:01:51
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
1:01:52
SPEAKER_02: At the at a minimum to start.
1:01:54
SPEAKER_03: What's your N and gram or whatever?
1:01:57
SPEAKER_03: What's your score?
1:01:57
SPEAKER_02: I don't even know all these personality tests.
1:02:00
SPEAKER_00: The cost of the global temperature increase because of that.
1:02:02
SPEAKER_00: You know, oh my kiddie.
1:02:04
unknown: Yeah.
1:02:04
SPEAKER_00: Ryan, uh, you have answered this question before, and I ran out of time in my research, so I forgot your answer.
1:02:11
SPEAKER_00: So we'll see if you have a new one or not when we play this back.
1:02:14
SPEAKER_00: But we finish every episode with this question.
1:02:17
SPEAKER_00: It's our favorite question.
1:02:18
SPEAKER_00: And and we'll first of all, we we appreciate you coming in and joining us in the shoot and sharing your insight and your opinion and your knowledge.
1:02:26
SPEAKER_02: You're in high demand.
1:02:27
SPEAKER_00: We know you're in high demand.
1:02:28
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, we'll have to we'll have to check with the uh the accountant on the way out to make sure our checks are your time.
1:02:35
SPEAKER_00: But uh if you could be anybody for a day, who would it be and what would you do?
1:02:43
SPEAKER_03: There's some answers I can give that are probably politically divisive.
1:02:47
SPEAKER_02: Mine was mine had to be like half of it offline.
1:02:50
SPEAKER_02: So Yeah.
1:02:52
SPEAKER_03: I what my initial thought is something I'm not gonna share because I would like to see things um run differently.
1:02:58
SPEAKER_03: Um and that's not a red or blue statement, but it it is it is one way.
1:03:03
SPEAKER_02: We'll get that off offline then.
1:03:05
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
1:03:05
SPEAKER_03: Um but I don't know.
1:03:07
SPEAKER_03: I think last time I came here, I said I said my wife, I'd just like to know more how she thinks, but then I'm like, do I really want to know?
1:03:15
SPEAKER_02: Once you know, you can't unknow.
1:03:16
SPEAKER_00: I've had two years to think about it.
1:03:18
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to answer that one.
1:03:20
SPEAKER_03: I'll say this though, that this is what comes to my mind is that um as I've gotten back into skateboarding, and first of all, I am not good.
1:03:28
SPEAKER_03: I go to the skate park before 7 a.m.
1:03:30
SPEAKER_03: So there's no one there.
1:03:32
SPEAKER_03: Because when the eight-year-olds arrive, they're gonna thrash me, you know.
1:03:35
SPEAKER_03: And I don't I just don't want to be there for that because you know I'm it might be some major respect though.
1:03:40
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
1:03:40
SPEAKER_00: Not from the eight-year-olds, not the year.
1:03:42
SPEAKER_00: Maybe from the 20-year-olds, but not the eight-year-olds.
1:03:44
SPEAKER_03: What's up, OG?
1:03:45
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
1:03:46
SPEAKER_03: So, but there's a skater named Andy Anderson.
1:03:49
SPEAKER_03: He's sort of like uh the new Rodney Mullen, if you know that reference.
1:03:52
SPEAKER_03: Um, but um he is he's got this documentary out that just came out, and it's a documentary, it's like seven minutes of skating in France in Paris, and it's just like this guy is so brilliant.
1:04:04
SPEAKER_03: The way he skates, and it's like um it's almost like ballet.
1:04:07
SPEAKER_03: Timothy Chalamet would have hated that reference that I said that.
1:04:10
SPEAKER_03: But um I I just I really appreciate the passion and the thoughtfulness.
1:04:15
SPEAKER_03: I would love to like sit down with him or get in his mind for a day because I just you can see that when someone is a real artist at what they do, um, just not going through the mechanics, there's something like really special about that.
1:04:27
SPEAKER_03: And um and I yeah, so I I don't know, I would be there.
1:04:30
SPEAKER_03: Um Andy Anderson, that's my answer.
1:04:33
SPEAKER_00: He'd be ripping, ripping up the streets of France, but artfully artfully on a skateboard.
1:04:39
SPEAKER_00: I love that.
1:04:40
SPEAKER_00: Listening to some penny wise.
1:04:43
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
1:04:44
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
1:04:45
SPEAKER_02: I love that.
1:04:45
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for joining us today, Ryan.
1:04:47
SPEAKER_00: Out of here.
1:04:48
SPEAKER_00: Thank you again, Ryan.
1:04:49
SPEAKER_00: So fun.
1:04:50
SPEAKER_02: It's gonna be your time.
1:04:53
SPEAKER_04: It's gonna find your life.