Latest / The Morning Edition / Trump and Zelensky meet again, and this time, Zelensky has the cards

Transcript

Trump and Zelensky meet again, and this time, Zelensky has the cards · The Morning Edition

0:07
S1: The Republican Party is under enormous pressure six weeks out
0:10
S1: from the midterm elections, with a new poll finding that
0:13
S1: most voters believe U.S. President Donald Trump has hurt the economy.
0:18
S1: It comes as Trump faces another test of his power
0:20
S1: this week, a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the United
0:24
S1: Nations General Assembly in New York in a bid to
0:27
S1: negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia. I'm Samantha Zellinger Morris,
0:32
S1: and you're listening to Morning Edition from The Age and
0:35
S1: the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter
0:40
S1: Hartcher on the global leaders showing the world this week
0:43
S1: who has the cards? Now it's September 23rd. Welcome, Peter,
0:49
S1: back to the podcast.
0:49
S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
0:51
S1: Okay, so the next 48 hours are looking as though
0:53
S1: they might reveal something about Donald Trump's hold on power.
0:57
S1: So I was hoping you could perhaps start off with
1:00
S1: Trump's meeting, his planned meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
1:05
S1: How is Trump positioned for this meeting and what might
1:08
S1: they be discussing?
1:10
S2: Well, with the UN Leaders Week in 130 heads of
1:14
S2: government in New York for it. It is a kind
1:18
S2: of index of Trumpian power. In the case of Zelensky,
1:23
S2: it's what, a year and a bit since that notorious
1:27
S2: meeting where he intimidated him, tried to embarrass him, although
1:32
S2: more embarrassed himself, in my view, with that sort of
1:37
S2: juvenile bullying.
1:38
S3: Happens to be right about from the very beginning of
1:41
S3: the war. You're not in a good position. You don't
1:43
S3: have the cards right now with us. You start having cards.
1:47
S3: Cards right now. You don't. You're playing cards, Mr. President.
1:49
S3: I'm serious. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people.
1:53
S3: You're gambling with World War three. You're gambling with World
1:58
S3: War three.
1:59
S2: The relationship is rebalanced. The cards, the distribution of cards
2:03
S2: between the two men has shifted. Trump thought that Vladimir
2:09
S2: Putin was the inevitable winner of the war against Ukraine.
2:12
S2: That's become a bitter disappointment for both Putin and Trump.
2:17
S2: Trump has since modified his whole attitude and tone to Zelensky.
2:22
S2: He's become much more reasonable. He's still, of course, hugely
2:26
S2: solicitous to to Putin, but he's become a less punitive,
2:30
S2: shall we say, on Zelensky, because the Ukrainians have the advantage.
2:35
S2: They have strategic momentum on their side. At the moment,
2:39
S2: Zelensky and Trump talked on the phone a couple of
2:42
S2: days ago. It seems that Trump is putting new energy
2:46
S2: into trying to negotiate some sort of peace between the
2:50
S2: two countries. Zelensky came out of that phone call and said,
2:53
S2: we have diplomatic momentum. He said that Trump had called
2:58
S2: on him Zelensky to please stop bombing Russian oil facilities
3:03
S2: because we need the oil to flow around the world
3:06
S2: and bring the price down. Of course, the main reason
3:09
S2: that oil is not flowing and the price has gone
3:11
S2: up is Trump's own blundering, incompetent war, which is failing
3:15
S2: for the US in against Iran. And he's pleading with
3:20
S2: Zelensky to take pressure off Russia to take pressure off
3:23
S2: the oil price, to which Zelensky said, we will do
3:26
S2: that on condition that the Russians do the same. And you,
3:30
S2: Donald Trump, helped guarantee that they do the same. So
3:35
S2: the dynamics have changed. Zelensky is holding more cards than
3:39
S2: he was. And look, just going a little more broadly,
3:43
S2: every significant dictator, all the men that Trump tried to
3:49
S2: flatter and tried to befriend have totally played him. And
3:54
S2: it's now obvious and it's just laughable how small a
4:00
S2: figure Trump has become on the world stage. Putin has
4:04
S2: totally ignored him. All of Trump's promises to end the
4:08
S2: war in a day. It's just become ridiculous. XI Jinping
4:12
S2: just defied him and said, remove the tariffs or I
4:15
S2: withhold your supply of rare earths. Trump crumbled in two days. Iran,
4:20
S2: of course, now is exerting a tremendous cost on the
4:24
S2: US and global economy through the oil price and the
4:28
S2: defiance of the US. And finally, Little Rocket Man, as
4:32
S2: he called Kim Jong UN in North Korea. Since Trump's
4:36
S2: summits with him, he has accelerated the development not only
4:39
S2: of his nuclear program, but of also his ballistic missile program.
4:43
S2: So these men have all played or simply defied and
4:48
S2: humiliated Donald Trump. And then then there's this the status
4:52
S2: of his power at home, which you can see it's
4:55
S2: ebbing away from him day to day. The inflation cost,
5:00
S2: the petrol price through through tariffs and petrol is undercutting
5:04
S2: living standards. Americans are very unhappy. Trump's approval rating falls
5:09
S2: by the day. The latest was just a few hours ago.
5:12
S2: I saw an Ipsos poll. New record low for Trump
5:14
S2: at 32% approval rating. He's being defied increasingly at home.
5:20
S2: His handpicked chairman of the Federal Reserve has just defied
5:23
S2: his very public demands to cut interest rates and done
5:26
S2: the opposite. The Supreme Court increasingly stands up to him
5:29
S2: and defies him. Most recently on Trump wanting to clamp
5:33
S2: down on the use of mail ballots, which, of course,
5:36
S2: he has no constitutional power over whatsoever, and the Supreme
5:38
S2: Court ruled accordingly. Everywhere you look, his power is simply
5:43
S2: ebbing because of his misjudgments, his incompetence, his over playing
5:51
S2: of his hand domestically. But most of all, it's that
5:55
S2: cost of living that has really hurt him. And that
5:58
S2: is all self-inflicted.
6:00
S1: Okay, well, just tell us, I guess, how much pressure
6:02
S1: Donald Trump is now under domestically. You know, how bad
6:05
S1: is the cost of fuel? How much rage are voters
6:09
S1: feeling against him? And I guess what he's done, which
6:11
S1: has of course led to this skyrocketing in price and
6:15
S1: fuel because we are now only six weeks out from
6:18
S1: the midterm elections. I was reading just the other day
6:21
S1: that some Republicans in the country's agricultural heartlands have floated
6:24
S1: a ban on diesel exports as farmers are squeezed by
6:28
S1: soaring fuel prices. And this is just as the autumn harvest,
6:31
S1: their season kicks off. So, I mean, it is an
6:34
S1: enormous amount of pressure, right?
6:36
S2: Yes it is. The price of petrol per gallon in
6:40
S2: the currency was about three bucks before the war. It's
6:44
S2: now 450. It's so it's a 50% increase. And staying
6:48
S2: there and diesel, it's even more it's up 70% in
6:51
S2: the US. And that is without the full effect yet
6:55
S2: of the closing of the the Red sea oil export route.
7:00
S2: So when the the Houthi rebels effective shutdown of that
7:04
S2: oil export route is taking full effect, that will mean
7:08
S2: both the main arteries for oil exports out of the
7:12
S2: Middle East are not shut down entirely, but greatly constricted.
7:17
S2: So analysts everywhere are expecting and predicting that the price
7:21
S2: of oil worldwide, which is today around $100 a barrel,
7:25
S2: is going to continue to increase their predictions. It will
7:28
S2: go to 120, 130 and even 150 USD a barrel.
7:32
S2: As you say, the timing is exquisitely bad for Trump
7:34
S2: heading into the midterms, where the petrol price already elevated inflation,
7:39
S2: already painful, is, by all accounts, about to increase again.
7:46
S2: And there's absolutely no schadenfreude in in saying this, Samantha,
7:50
S2: because it's going to hurt. Uh, millions, hundreds of millions
7:54
S2: of ordinary Americans, but also all of us around the world.
7:58
S2: Inflation and the, the interest rates, which much which must
8:02
S2: rise to defeat that inflation is, is a painful economic
8:06
S2: slowdown and cost of living and living standards, punishment all
8:11
S2: around the world for this completely avoidable, pointless losing war
8:16
S2: that Trump confected and mismanaged.
8:19
S1: After the break.
8:21
S2: Given that Ukraine has already signed similar arrangements with 28
8:25
S2: other countries, including the Japanese, the British, the Canadians. Uh,
8:30
S2: it's about time.
8:36
S1: We're sensing, I guess, perhaps desperation on Trump's part going
8:39
S1: into this meeting with Zelensky. I mean, we'll see how
8:41
S1: it how it sort of, uh, comes out. But then
8:44
S1: our prime minister, Anthony Albanese, will be having his own
8:47
S1: meetings on the sidelines of the UN. And so he's
8:51
S1: going to be meeting with Vladimir Zelensky to announce a
8:53
S1: new pact. What are they announcing?
8:55
S2: Yeah. Australia and Ukraine are signing a joint security pact,
9:00
S2: a bilateral deal which it's expected that Albanese will offer
9:06
S2: some extra support to Ukraine to help it with its
9:10
S2: struggle against Russia. Australia has been a supporter politically and
9:15
S2: in in kind to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
9:20
S2: About 1.7 billion AUD worth of military and non-military assistance.
9:25
S2: It's not a huge supporter, but for a country on
9:29
S2: the other side of the earth, which has had minimal
9:31
S2: dealings over the years, it's still substantial. And as a
9:36
S2: part of this arrangement, the deal they'll sign it will
9:40
S2: open up the scope for a formal defence relationship and
9:44
S2: broader political relationship with Ukraine. It should open the way
9:48
S2: to allow the Ukrainians to start training the Australians in warfare,
9:55
S2: particularly the electronic warfare, drone warfare and other forms that
9:59
S2: they've now become the world leaders in. At the beginning
10:02
S2: of the war, Australia joined the British led kudu mission kudu.
10:06
S2: It's called to train Ukrainian soldiers. The Australians have trained
10:10
S2: a couple of thousand Ukrainian soldiers, but now the expertise is.
10:14
S2: As Mick Ryan, the military strategist Australian former general, said,
10:20
S2: said to me, um, they the Ukrainians have a lot
10:23
S2: more to teach us now than we have to teach them.
10:25
S2: So this will open the way to Australia, getting the
10:27
S2: benefit of that hard won expertise that the Ukrainians have.
10:32
S2: It will also open the way to joint ventures for
10:36
S2: production of military materiel, drones, missiles and other goods. It
10:42
S2: opens avenues for the future as well, for after the war,
10:47
S2: the no war lasts forever. To allow Australia to participate
10:51
S2: in the reconstruction and rebuilding of Ukraine. So it opens
10:56
S2: a range of new vistas. And given that Ukraine's already
11:02
S2: signed similar arrangements with 28 other countries, including the Japanese,
11:07
S2: the British, the Canadians, it's about time.
11:11
S1: That's I mean, it's certainly unexpected, isn't it? I mean,
11:14
S1: I think you mentioned to me before we started recording
11:16
S1: that Ukraine was sort of really relying on NATO. Right. Originally, uh,
11:21
S1: for support with this war sort of pleading really, obviously
11:24
S1: has long wanted to be a member of NATO. And
11:26
S1: now I believe the Ukrainians are going to be training
11:29
S1: NATO soldiers.
11:30
S2: They already are. Yes. Um, the Ukrainian troops are training
11:34
S2: German and Polish soldiers as we speak. Uh, in drone
11:39
S2: and counter drone warfare. So yes, the balance has has
11:44
S2: really tipped. Of course, NATO is still indispensable and the
11:47
S2: EU are still indispensable in supporting Ukraine. But in terms
11:51
S2: of the accumulated experience and wisdom in cutting edge modern warfare,
11:57
S2: all of that drone development is new. The Ukrainians are
12:01
S2: the world leaders and and everybody now has much to
12:04
S2: learn from them.
12:05
S1: And Peter, perhaps just to wrap up, can you, I guess,
12:08
S1: give us a little bit of an overview about how
12:10
S1: this war is actually going between Ukraine and Russia? Because,
12:13
S1: you know, you get so much information and misinformation. It's
12:16
S1: been going a long time now, more than four years.
12:18
S1: So where are things at?
12:20
S2: Yeah. Well, the Ukrainians do have the advantage of momentum
12:24
S2: behind them at the moment. The overall picture is that
12:28
S2: the Russians total casualties killed and wounded is estimated at
12:32
S2: 1.4 million men, the Ukrainians, about half a million men.
12:37
S2: One big change in the dynamic, really startling change is
12:41
S2: that the best expert estimates are that for almost all
12:46
S2: of the war. Until this year, there's been 2 or
12:51
S2: 3 Russian casualties for every one Ukrainian in the first
12:55
S2: half of this year, according to the CSIs center for
12:58
S2: Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.. That ratio has
13:02
S2: now increased to 8 to 1, so eight Russians killed
13:05
S2: or wounded to every one Ukrainian killed or wounded. That
13:09
S2: is a dramatic shift in the balance and demonstrates that
13:12
S2: the Ukrainians are really have improved their skills and strategy
13:18
S2: when the Russians haven't. That's a terrible toll on both sides.
13:23
S2: But that's that's the reality. Which has led to a
13:25
S2: lot of speculation that Russia is about to announce a
13:30
S2: general mobilization, which Putin has avoided like the plague, because
13:33
S2: it's wickedly unpopular. But now that their parliamentary elections have finished,
13:38
S2: finished on the weekend, there's speculation that Putin will do
13:42
S2: that simply because they are losing soldiers wounded and killed
13:47
S2: at a rate of 30,000 a month, approximately 1000 a day.
13:52
S2: And they are simply running out of troops. So the
13:55
S2: Russians are trying to break the Ukrainian momentum. They're trying
14:00
S2: to on the ground in Donbas, mount a major offensive
14:05
S2: to try and break through there. So far, it's really
14:08
S2: been the most incremental of movement there. But we'll see
14:12
S2: what happens. But in terms of the the the war
14:16
S2: in the air, Ukraine demonstrated just on the weekend that
14:19
S2: it's now able to reach right into the heart of
14:21
S2: Moscow and blew up a Russian refinery about 25km away
14:26
S2: from the Kremlin itself, even though its drones have to
14:30
S2: travel 3000km and penetrate one of the world's most intensely
14:35
S2: protected defence air zones, the Ukrainians now have this ability,
14:39
S2: and according to the mayor of Moscow, the Russians shot
14:41
S2: down 450 Ukrainian drones, yet still enough got through to
14:46
S2: set fire to this major oil refinery. Unfortunately, some civilians
14:51
S2: were killed as well. But that has really it's another
14:55
S2: demonstration of how the odds have shifted, because there was
14:59
S2: for years no prospect that they could reach Moscow, and
15:01
S2: now they do it at their leisure.
15:03
S1: Well, it'll be interesting to see what comes out of
15:05
S1: Trump's meeting with Zelensky then, because the bullying hasn't worked,
15:08
S1: the attempted humiliation hasn't worked. And and now the world
15:12
S1: can see that Ukraine actually does have some cards. So.
15:16
S2: Yes. Well, it would be wonderful for the sake of
15:19
S2: humanity as well as for the two countries involved, if
15:25
S2: Trump were able finally to bring together to broker some
15:28
S2: sort of agreement. But Putin has shown absolutely no interest
15:32
S2: in in even beginning to talk, despite Donald Trump's attempts
15:38
S2: to claim great affinity with the man.
15:42
S1: Yeah. Right. Okay. So might not be a cease fire
15:44
S1: in sight, but might just be Trump might even be
15:48
S1: further hammered in the midterms than even it's looking like
15:51
S1: it'll be.
15:51
S2: So the relationship that he thought was such a great
15:54
S2: asset is turned into an embarrassment, much as the relationship
15:59
S2: that he had with Netanyahu, which he thought was a
16:03
S2: great asset, has also turned into a liability because he allowed, uh,
16:07
S2: allowed himself to be talked into joining Netanyahu's war in Iran.
16:11
S2: And look what that's got him.
16:12
S1: Yeah. Well, as always, Peter, thank you so much for
16:15
S1: your time.
16:16
S2: A grim subject, but always a pleasure.
16:31
S1: In other news today, houses are overvalued as much as 61%
16:36
S1: across Australian cities, according to new analysis from AMP data,
16:40
S1: signaling that prices could have much further to fall in
16:43
S1: the current downturn, and Australian petrol and diesel prices have
16:48
S1: returned to their highest levels in more than five months,
16:51
S1: and risk climbing further after the war in the Middle
16:54
S1: East crippled a second major oil export pipeline, triggering warnings
16:58
S1: from analysts that crude oil could surge past U.S. $150
17:02
S1: a barrel if the conflict continues. You can read more
17:07
S1: at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by
17:17
S1: Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our
17:21
S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If
17:25
S1: you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and leave
17:28
S1: a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.