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Oil Spikes and Tech Shifts: Navigating Geopolitical Volatility · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and I am so glad you could join me for our midafternoon market checkin .
• 0:10
  It is 2:30 pm on Wednesday , July 8th , 2026 , here in sunny California , and boy , do we have a lot to talk about today .
• 0:20
  The markets are definitely feeling a bit grumpy this afternoon as we see a major shift toward a riskoff mood .
• 0:27
  The big story driving the headlines is the sudden collapse of the temporary ceasefire between the U.S.
• 0:33
  and Iran .
• 0:34
  This geopolitical shakeup has sent oil prices zooming upward and caused our major stock benchmarks to take a bit of a tumble .
• 0:42
  Right now , the S&P 500 , which many of you track through the SPY ETF , is down between zero point two eight and zero point six one percent , trading around the 7,482 level .
• 0:57
  It has been a rough couple of days after those record highs we saw in June .
• 1:01
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually the biggest loser today , dropping over one point one percent , or about 576 points .
• 1:11
  Because the Dow has so many industrial and travel companies , those rising fuel costs really hurt .
• 1:18
  Meanwhile , the Nasdaq , or the QQQ , is bouncing around like a bouncy ball .
• 1:24
  It started the day down nearly one percent but managed to fight back to slightly positive territory thanks to some strength in Apple and a few AI hardware names .
• 1:34
  Looking at the different sectors , Energy is the big winner .
• 1:38
  Brent Crude oil surged over five point two percent to 78 dollars and two cents .
• 1:44
  This has been great for the XLE Energy ETF and companies like Exxon Mobil as investors try to protect themselves against supply issues .
• 1:54
  On the flip side , the big Tech names are sitting in what analysts call the penalty box .
• 1:59
  We saw a massive 2.2 trillion dollar valuation warning earlier this week , and Nvidia is feeling the squeeze as its valuation cools off .
• 2:09
  However , it is not all bad news in tech ; Broadcom is up over four point five percent because they just landed a big custom silicon deal with Apple .
• 2:20
  Speaking of Apple , they are currently worth 4.6 trillion dollars , nearly catching up to Nvidia's 4.7 trillion dollar market cap .
• 2:29
  We also got a look at the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes today , and it looks like Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his team are staying hawkish .
• 2:37
  With inflation hitting 4.2 percent in May , there is talk of more rate hikes to fight stagflation .
• 2:44
  This is why we are seeing the Financials and Real Estate sectors struggling today .
• 2:49
  The 10year Treasury yield rose to four point five nine percent , making things like the VNQ Real Estate ETF less attractive .
• 2:58
  So , what should you do with your portfolio in this environment of stagflationary anxiety ?
• 3:04
  First , we recommend a tactical overweight in Energy and Commodities .
• 3:08
  Using the XLE ETF or even Gold through the GLD ETF can act as a hedge against the conflict in the Middle East .
• 3:18
  Exxon Mobil and Baker Hughes are good examples of companies benefiting from this oil spike .
• 3:23
  Second , when it comes to tech , focus on quality over momentum .
• 3:27
  We like Apple and Broadcom here .
• 3:29
  Apple has a very stable ecosystem and massive cash flow , while Broadcom is a leader in that powerefficient silicon everyone needs for AI .
• 3:39
  Third , be very cautious with fixed income .
• 3:42
  We suggest avoiding longterm bonds like the TLT ETF .
• 3:47
  If the Fed does hike rates like the minutes suggest , those long bonds will likely lose value .
• 3:52
  Finally , we recommend staying underweight on international stocks for now , such as the VEA ETF .
• 3:59
  Markets in Europe and Asia are much more dependent on energy imports than the U.S.
• 4:04
  , so an oil shock could hit them much harder .
• 4:07
  That is all for this update !
• 4:09
  Keep a close eye on those energy prices and remember to stay diversified .
• 4:14
  I will see you back here in a few hours for another look at the numbers .
• 4:18
  This has been Sunny Sideup for Spy Trader !