Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 12th, 2026: Iran's Leadership Crisis Is Getting Worse & Trump's Ukraine Ceasefire Falls Apart

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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 12th, 2026: Iran's Leadership Crisis Is Getting Worse & Trump's Ukraine Ceasefire Falls Apart · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:12
  It's Monday,
• 0:12
  the 12th of October.
• 0:14
  Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 0:16
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:17
  your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:20
  Alright,
• 0:21
  let's get briefed.
• 0:22
  First up,
• 0:22
  Iran's leaders
• 0:24
  are sending conflicting messages about negotiations with Washington,
• 0:28
  highlighting key questions at the heart of the conflict.
• 0:31
  Who's actually running the country and who or what leadership group
• 0:35
  can actually negotiate and sign off on any potential deal.
• 0:39
  Later in the show,
• 0:41
  well,
• 0:41
  here we go.
• 0:42
  President Trump announces an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine
• 0:46
  on energy infrastructure,
• 0:48
  but there's,
• 0:49
  uh,
• 0:49
  just one slight technicality.
• 0:52
  Moscow and Kiev never agreed to it.
• 0:54
  Now,
• 0:54
  I'm no ceasefire expert,
• 0:56
  but typically,
• 0:58
  the two sides in any conflict
• 1:00
  need to be willing participants in order for
• 1:02
  it to actually be a ceasefire agreement.
• 1:05
  But first,
• 1:06
  today's PDB spotlight.
• 1:09
  Iran is once again
• 1:10
  talking about a possible agreement with the US,
• 1:13
  but after more than 7 months of war,
• 1:15
  there's a basic question hanging over those negotiations.
• 1:18
  Who exactly
• 1:20
  has the authority to make a deal on the regime's behalf?
• 1:23
  Well,
• 1:23
  the latest confusion began yesterday when Mohsin Rezai,
• 1:27
  the,
• 1:27
  uh,
• 1:28
  secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council,
• 1:31
  rejected Washington's response to Tehran's seven conditions
• 1:34
  for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:36
  Rezai said the Americans had accepted some demands,
• 1:41
  but left others unresolved,
• 1:42
  and declared that Iran was no longer responding to Washington,
• 1:47
  so there.
• 1:48
  Then just this morning,
• 1:49
  Iran's Foreign Ministry delivered a very different message.
• 1:53
  Spokesman Ismail Baghai
• 1:55
  said Tehran was still reviewing the American response,
• 1:58
  would reply through intermediaries,
• 2:00
  and continued exchanging messages with Washington.
• 2:04
  Now those statements,
• 2:04
  as you
• 2:05
  may have noticed,
• 2:06
  directly contradict each other.
• 2:08
  Rezaid didn't suggest negotiations were merely stalled.
• 2:12
  He declared that Iran was no longer responding to Washington.
• 2:15
  Less than 24 hours later,
• 2:17
  the Foreign Ministry insisted
• 2:18
  the diplomatic exchanges were continuing.
• 2:22
  Now it does help to understand that these messages are
• 2:24
  coming from two very different parts of Iran's government.
• 2:27
  Rezai comes from the security establishment.
• 2:30
  He's a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps,
• 2:33
  the IRGC
• 2:34
  who now heads the country's top security council.
• 2:37
  Bagai,
• 2:38
  meanwhile,
• 2:39
  represents the civilian government.
• 2:41
  He's the Foreign Ministry spokesman whose department has been handling
• 2:44
  diplomatic contacts with Washington.
• 2:47
  Which brings us back to a familiar question
• 2:49
  that we've been asking throughout this war.
• 2:51
  Who is actually calling the shots in Tehran?
• 2:54
  Iran's president,
• 2:56
  Massoud Bazekian,
• 2:57
  has defended the concept of negotiations as the
• 3:00
  country struggles under sanctions and military damage and
• 3:03
  the ongoing American naval blockade.
• 3:06
  But as we've discussed,
• 3:07
  the Revolutionary Guard Corps wields enormous military and economic power,
• 3:12
  and since the start of the conflict appears to have cemented their control
• 3:16
  over the mullahs and political establishment.
• 3:19
  Key senior figures in the security establishment
• 3:22
  reportedly believe that Iran should keep fighting
• 3:25
  and impose greater costs on Washington.
• 3:27
  And of course,
• 3:29
  There's still the issue of Supreme Leader Mushtaba Khamenei,
• 3:32
  the least visible of all ayatollahs
• 3:34
  in the history of Ayatollahs.
• 3:36
  7 months into the conflict and the country's supposed new Supreme Leader
• 3:40
  hasn't made a verified public appearance or delivered
• 3:43
  an independently authenticated video or audio address.
• 3:47
  Iranian officials have issued statements in his
• 3:49
  name and insist he's directing the country.
• 3:51
  No,
• 3:52
  seriously,
• 3:52
  he's in charge,
• 3:53
  but there's no independent confirmation of his condition
• 3:56
  or his involvement
• 3:57
  in major decision making.
• 3:59
  In September,
• 4:00
  Posseskian told CBS that he had met Khamenei for more
• 4:03
  than 7 hours and that the Supreme Leader was healthy.
• 4:06
  He looks great.
• 4:07
  But reporting indicated that he only actually
• 4:10
  had a bizarre virtual meeting with him
• 4:12
  and never actually saw Khamenei or spoke directly with him.
• 4:16
  And when CBS asked whether Khamenei sub supported a deal with Washington,
• 4:20
  Posseskin offered
• 4:21
  an odd explanation.
• 4:23
  He described a six-member group representing security forces,
• 4:26
  parliament,
• 4:27
  and government institutions
• 4:29
  that coordinates major decisions.
• 4:31
  In other words,
• 4:32
  the president pointed to a committee,
• 4:33
  rather than providing a clear account
• 4:36
  of the Supreme Leader's role in any decision making.
• 4:39
  The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Posseskian's civilian government.
• 4:43
  is focused on unlocking billions in frozen Iranian funds and
• 4:47
  finding relief for an economy battered by the conflict.
• 4:50
  Hardliners,
• 4:51
  especially within the IRGC,
• 4:53
  are focused on preserving their leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
• 4:57
  That's a fundamental disagreement
• 4:59
  over what Iran should get out of this confrontation.
• 5:02
  Reopening the strait,
• 5:03
  of course,
• 5:04
  could help the economy recover,
• 5:06
  but surrendering control of shipping could also mean
• 5:09
  giving up one of the strongest remaining,
• 5:11
  possibly only remaining leverage points
• 5:13
  that Tehran has to pressure the region and the US.
• 5:17
  Axios reported earlier this month
• 5:19
  that American officials worry that an agreement reached
• 5:22
  with Iran's diplomats might not be honored.
• 5:25
  By the IRGC or the hardline elements,
• 5:28
  you think?
• 5:29
  Well,
• 5:29
  you don't need to be an American official to figure that one out.
• 5:32
  And now with Washington demanding nuclear concessions and Tehran
• 5:36
  insisting the immediate priority is the Strait of Hormuz,
• 5:39
  while the regime issues conflicting signals
• 5:42
  about what they want and how they might proceed,
• 5:44
  well,
• 5:45
  the whole process is now mired in the leadership questions.
• 5:50
  Alright,
• 5:50
  coming up next,
• 5:51
  President Trump announces a ceasefire in Ukraine,
• 5:55
  well,
• 5:55
  that doesn't exist,
• 5:56
  as Washington pressures Kiev to stop attacking Russian oil refineries,
• 6:01
  while Putin,
• 6:01
  of course,
• 6:02
  continues attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• 6:05
  Confused?
• 6:06
  Yeah,
• 6:07
  you're in good company.
• 6:08
  I'll be right back.
• 6:10
  Hey,
• 6:10
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• 9:04
  Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 9:08
  For a moment,
• 9:08
  at least according to President Trump's social media postings,
• 9:12
  it seemed that there might finally be progress toward a ceasefire in Ukraine.
• 9:17
  President Trump on Sunday said Moscow and Kiev
• 9:19
  agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure effective immediately.
• 9:24
  On Truth Social,
• 9:25
  where all important ceasefire.
• 9:27
  is released,
• 9:28
  the president wrote,
• 9:29
  quote,
• 9:30
  effective immediately,
• 9:31
  there is an energy ceasefire that was in all capitals
• 9:34
  in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
• 9:36
  Both parties have agreed,
• 9:38
  do not break it,
• 9:39
  end quote.
• 9:40
  But,
• 9:41
  according to Axios,
• 9:43
  well,
• 9:43
  there was no deal.
• 9:44
  What there was were ongoing negotiations on a much narrower proposal,
• 9:49
  with protection for Ukraine's power grid
• 9:51
  left for uh possible later agreement as winter approaches.
• 9:55
  We'll talk about that some other time.
• 9:57
  We've seen this gap between announcements and reality before.
• 10:00
  Trump made a similar declaration last month,
• 10:02
  but neither Moscow nor Kiev confirmed a deal,
• 10:05
  and both continued
• 10:06
  attacking energy infrastructure.
• 10:09
  Aside from the non-existent ceasefire,
• 10:10
  a White House official described the limited
• 10:13
  proposal that is reportedly under discussion.
• 10:15
  To Axios as a quote,
• 10:17
  refinery for refinery ceasefire.
• 10:20
  Russia and Ukraine would first stop attacking each other's oil refineries.
• 10:25
  I'm gonna,
• 10:25
  I'm gonna give you a spoiler alert,
• 10:27
  we'll talk about it here shortly,
• 10:28
  but
• 10:29
  Russia,
• 10:29
  well,
• 10:30
  Russia has uh 32 major oil refineries and dozens of other small
• 10:35
  operations,
• 10:35
  Ukraine has one refinery that hasn't worked for several years.
• 10:40
  If that arrangement were to go to an effect,
• 10:42
  Washington hopes a separate agreement protecting power
• 10:45
  plants and electricity grids could follow.
• 10:47
  The official told Axios,
• 10:48
  quote,
• 10:49
  the Russians are thinking about it.
• 10:50
  We will know soon if they're ready,
• 10:52
  end quote.
• 10:53
  As we've been tracking,
• 10:55
  Kiev has spent months attacking Russia's extensive refinery network,
• 10:58
  disrupting fuel production and putting pressure on an energy sector that
• 11:02
  helps significantly to finance Moscow's war.
• 11:05
  According to some estimates,
• 11:07
  Ukraine has taken out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity
• 11:11
  since its campaign began.
• 11:12
  Now,
• 11:12
  as I alluded to here just a short moment ago,
• 11:15
  as an aside,
• 11:16
  Russia has 32 major oil refineries
• 11:19
  and dozens of smaller refining operations.
• 11:21
  And as mentioned,
• 11:23
  Ukraine only has one refinery,
• 11:25
  and that has been essentially non-operational
• 11:28
  since Russia
• 11:29
  targeted it in 2022.
• 11:31
  So,
• 11:32
  a refinery-only ceasefire
• 11:34
  would protect a major Russian industry,
• 11:36
  while Ukraine,
• 11:37
  as a result of Russian attacks in the past,
• 11:39
  has nothing to protect when it comes to refineries.
• 11:42
  Now that seems like a deal
• 11:44
  that Putin might just accept.
• 11:46
  For his part,
• 11:47
  President Zelensky did say he's willing to make a deal.
• 11:50
  Speaking Sunday,
• 11:51
  he said Ukraine would halt attacks on Russian refineries
• 11:54
  if Moscow stopped striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• 11:58
  Well,
• 11:59
  that does seem a little more balanced,
• 12:01
  and that also seems like a deal that Putin
• 12:03
  might not accept.
• 12:04
  As for Trump's Sunday announcement of the mysterious ceasefire,
• 12:08
  Zelensky told Axios,
• 12:09
  quote,
• 12:10
  Well,
• 12:10
  that was news for me,
• 12:11
  but if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire,
• 12:13
  Ukraine will agree,
• 12:14
  end quote.
• 12:16
  But hours after Trump's announcement,
• 12:18
  Russian forces struck Ukrainian power plants.
• 12:21
  Further attacks into early Monday morning
• 12:23
  hit energy facilities,
• 12:24
  including critical gas infrastructure.
• 12:27
  The disagreement over Ukraine's refinery campaign is
• 12:29
  once again straining Trump's relationship with Zelensky.
• 12:33
  After reaching Friday's deal with Putin
• 12:35
  to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports,
• 12:39
  Trump remains focused now on Ukrainian refinery strikes,
• 12:42
  which he believes
• 12:43
  are driving up US gas prices.
• 12:46
  And that of course can impact US voters heading into the midterm elections.
• 12:50
  Uh,
• 12:51
  it's the circle of life,
• 12:53
  as mentioned on today's PDB.
• 12:54
  Those strikes are only part of a broader supply problem
• 12:58
  that of course includes major disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East.
• 13:02
  White House officials told Axios that Ukrainian attacks
• 13:05
  on Russia are hurting Zelensky's relationship with Trump
• 13:08
  more than they're damaging Russia.
• 13:10
  Oh,
• 13:10
  as one official put it,
• 13:11
  quote,
• 13:12
  Trump is really mad.
• 13:13
  He feels Zelensky is taking the US for granted,
• 13:16
  end quote.
• 13:17
  Well,
• 13:17
  that pressure could of course now affect Ukraine's access to American weapons.
• 13:21
  The Financial Times reports that Washington warned European governments
• 13:26
  it might stop selling weapons to Ukraine through NATO
• 13:29
  if Kiev continued attacking
• 13:31
  Russian refineries.
• 13:33
  And that my friends,
• 13:34
  is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday,
• 13:36
  the 12th of October.
• 13:38
  Now,
• 13:38
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 13:39
  please just reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com
• 13:43
  and to listen to the show ad-free,
• 13:45
  well,
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  you can become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief.
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  It's very simple.
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  Just visit PDBpremium.com.
• 13:51
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow.
• 13:53
  Until then,
• 13:55
  stay informed,
• 13:56
  stay safe,
• 13:57
  stay cool.
• 14:12
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