Latest / BREAK/FIX the Motorsports & Vehicle Enthusiast Variety Show / Dave... What's my car worth? (David Neyens, Motorcopia.com)

Transcript

Dave... What's my car worth? (David Neyens, Motorcopia.com) · BREAK/FIX the Motorsports & Vehicle Enthusiast Variety Show

0:00
Break Fix podcast is all about capturing the living history of people from all
0:05
over the autos sphere, from wrench, turners, and racers to artists, authors,
0:09
designers, and everything in between.
0:11
Our goal is to inspire a new generation of Petrolhead that wonder.
0:16
How did they get that job or become that person?
0:19
The road to success is paved by all of us because everyone has a story.
0:27
Tonight we are joined by a familiar name in the world of collector
0:30
cars and automotive journalism.
0:32
David Nyan known for his deep expertise in classic and exotic
0:36
automobiles, has long been a trusted voice in auction catalogs and in the
0:40
pages of enthusiast publications.
0:42
Now he's bringing that wealth of knowledge with motor copia.com, a unique
0:47
platform dedicated to the intelligence and insights of the global collector
0:51
car market from auction analysis and pricing trends to the fascinating
0:55
stories behind the cars themselves.
0:57
Motor Copia is redefining how enthusiast, collectors and investors
1:02
understand the marketplace.
1:04
In this episode, we'll dive into David's journey, the vision behind Motor Copia,
1:08
and how data and passion are merging to shape the future of the car world.
1:14
That's right, and joining us tonight are returning co-hosts Don
1:18
Weiberg from Garage Style Magazine.
1:20
And William Ross from the Ferrari Marketplace, not just personalities on
1:24
the Motoring Podcast network, but our car auction subject matter experts.
1:29
So welcome back Don and William.
1:30
Thank you.
1:31
This is gonna be fun.
1:32
And with that, let's welcome David to break fix.
1:35
Hello David.
1:36
Hello everybody.
1:37
Nice to meet you.
1:37
Like all good break, fix stories.
1:40
Everyone has a superhero origin.
1:42
Let's talk about your long history in the collector car world.
1:45
And what inspired you to launch motor copia.com and how does that
1:49
build on all your past experiences?
1:51
Ever since I was just a little guy, I was always just obsessed
1:56
with automobiles in general.
1:57
After a about 10 year stint in financial services and banking was able to get
2:01
into riding for a nearby collector car, auction house, and writing their catalogs.
2:07
After a few visits, one of the tour guides, uh, mentioned he
2:10
thought that I should give catalog writing a try, and that there
2:13
might be, uh, an opportunity there.
2:15
So I purchased prior auction catalogs and just went over them just like I
2:19
would a magazine or a book just kind of modeled their format and their style.
2:23
Back in 2007, uh, unboxing day, I had the opportunity, I saw an ad actually where
2:28
they were looking for catalog writers.
2:30
The deal was you submit a test piece, pick a car of your choosing
2:34
and give it a try, and if they.
2:35
Liked it.
2:35
Then there was the possibility of an interview and a job working in the
2:39
writing cataloging department there.
2:41
As it happened very quickly, I was told they liked what I submitted.
2:44
They were super busy with private collection sales and scheduled auctions.
2:48
Asked if I'd be willing to interview, and they brought me on board pretty fast.
2:52
So that's how I got my first few years in the business.
2:54
After that went on my own in 2012 and, uh, with some help from a very good friend,
2:59
uh, in the PR industry in in California, Cindy Mele, she helped me to launch my
3:04
next phase as a, as a freelance catalog writer and just became extremely busy.
3:08
It's been really rewarding.
3:10
I've met a lot of great people, uh, made a lot of great contacts
3:12
with people and just continue that journey right to the present.
3:15
And as far as motor copia goes, uh, as a new venture.
3:19
That started back in May and June.
3:21
I finished a major project for a customer, submitted my invoice and I'd been feeling
3:27
a little bit tired, and then realized by then that I'd caught a terrible cold
3:30
that put me on my back for about a month.
3:32
During that time, I thought, well, what can I do in addition to
3:35
writing catalogs on my own where I can continue in the car field and,
3:39
uh, try to do something different?
3:41
And so the idea for motor Copia came about.
3:44
A lot of content creators do a better job of putting out great photography,
3:48
great videos, online content.
3:51
That's their space.
3:52
With me being so deep in the market for so long, I decided to take data
3:56
associated with collector car sales, process it, and turn it into something
4:00
that's actionable for collectors and high net worth investors.
4:04
People in, uh, their professional advisors as well, where I can give a buy
4:08
seller a hold signal and also drill it down to specific models of cars, even.
4:13
Again, it was just simply because I was trying to find something
4:16
different, something a new niche that no one else is really pursuing.
4:20
Can you tell us exactly what is Motor Copia?
4:23
I was kind of inspired by, uh, there's a fellow in, in the States.
4:26
You're all in the states.
4:27
I'm in Canada.
4:29
He, he writes, um, a newsletter that's all about farming and
4:33
agricultural commodities, investment strategies for farmers so that they
4:36
can hedge their bets or get their crops to market at the right time.
4:41
Or maybe they hold onto them in a facility and they then sell them when
4:45
the conditions are more favorable.
4:46
That's his business.
4:47
He, and it's just a no bones about it.
4:49
He was a Chicago Board of Exchange trader at one time and just loved it.
4:53
And he came from a farm and that's what he did.
4:55
So for me, it's being able to take my love of cars.
4:58
Well, I love them all, but you know, there's some that are more electrifying
5:01
than others or that are in more demand than others, and they actually
5:04
apply a bit of a financial method to helping people to make decisions.
5:07
But is it an auction platform?
5:09
Form what?
5:09
What are we looking at here?
5:10
What it is, it's an information platform.
5:13
Think of it as kinda like a Bloomberg terminal setup for investors in the
5:17
collector car market, or people that have high end collections and they
5:21
want to know whether they need to buy, sell, or hold certain cars.
5:24
Also, there's the Motor Copia newsletter that works right from the website and
5:28
with that I send out like a financial newsletter, but it's geared completely to
5:32
the collector car market and there's a lot of crossover with the financial markets.
5:36
It's a real hardcore nuts and bolts analysis.
5:39
If you're looking for good content and great pictures and stuff like that.
5:42
I try to deliver that.
5:43
The emphasis is on helping people to buy, sell, or hold and make
5:47
those decisions with clarity.
5:49
My opinion, you don't need to worry about the pictures and that stuff
5:51
because what you provide to someone is.
5:55
Basically the data and analytics down to specific models, which is
5:58
fantastic for someone that's a very numbers driven Oh, oh, right on.
6:02
For those who have not gone on the website, you need to go on there.
6:05
And what's great about it too, it's not like it's crazy where it's like,
6:07
you know, you get some of these data driven sites, you get all this data
6:10
so that you really, it's kind of hard to make all It is so nice and concise.
6:13
It's very straightforward and you can understand exactly what you need to find.
6:18
To your point, buy, sell, hold.
6:19
Just history of car, especially if maybe it's just your car
6:22
you've had for a long time.
6:23
Hey, where's my car sitting at in the market right now and what's
6:26
it been doing the past five years?
6:27
If you haven't been on site, you guys gotta go on the site
6:29
'cause it is really, really cool.
6:31
Thank you.
6:31
If I'm understanding correctly, if you go on the site, do you go back
6:34
five years and show what those cars have been doing on the market, going
6:38
up, going down, doing whatever?
6:40
Is that what we're kind of getting at?
6:41
Yeah, I've done two reports, really deep dives into the four GT Heritage
6:46
Edition, the oh six four GT version.
6:48
Where that sits in that relationship, is it if it's a buy, sell or a hold,
6:52
the report breaks it down into immediate the next 30 days, one month to three
6:57
months for short term, three months to 12 months for a medium term, and
7:01
then beyond that for a longer term view, sometimes a vehicle can be.
7:04
An immediate term hold, but give it a year and it's a buy depending
7:09
on our forecasting, so we can drill right down and make forecasts.
7:12
And then I try to back test as well after certain auctions take place.
7:16
Like at Monterey, I believe there are five or six of that four GT Heritage
7:20
Edition that were offered and or sold.
7:23
So I could look back and see, okay, was reserve too high on this offering?
7:27
Was it priced right?
7:28
What did they solve for and what does that mean for the future for those cars?
7:33
Because they were heading on a trajectory for a million plus dollars and really
7:38
the sweet spot's somewhere around 700, 750 right now for those cars.
7:42
That's borne out by auction experience and sales experience,
7:46
online auctions, and also if there's any private sale data that's known.
7:50
You picked on specifically the GT heritage.
7:53
Why that car?
7:54
How do you choose the cars that are on the system?
7:56
How many cars are on the system Right now, I'm doing it more on a
7:59
demand basis, and I'm also picking and choosing bellwether type cars.
8:04
That would be like a blue chip in the market.
8:06
Something that's got a certain amount of confirmed sales.
8:09
It's got some interesting dynamics in the market as far as pricing, and this
8:14
one was heading higher and now with the airs come back out, it's still
8:18
in high demand, rare limited edition.
8:21
That's how I picked that.
8:22
It's a bellwether.
8:22
I've got another analysis, two different methods on the, uh, first
8:26
generation of the Ferrari tester.
8:28
84, 85 to 91.
8:30
The same idea.
8:31
It's a solid hold right now, but there's upside potential still.
8:34
The tester had almost 7,200 built.
8:37
71, 77 I think was the bill number.
8:40
At least what's accepted.
8:41
The idea is, okay, there's enough of them built where there probably are
8:44
enough sales and enough attempted sales that I could find lots of records
8:48
for the past five years online that.
8:51
Would help me to build that model as to why it's a hold right now and
8:55
it, it's approaching a buy actually, and I believe one of my reports was
8:59
calling for a median of about $160,000 for a number two example, which is an
9:05
excellent car, but not a Concord queen.
9:08
Not a driver.
9:08
So that's sort of the standard baseline I go by is an excellent conditioned
9:12
car, unless the customer tells me what the condition of the car is.
9:16
So I'm using haggerty's one to four scale for condition.
9:19
So that's kind of one of the criteria.
9:20
I'm using.
9:21
Two things I do.
9:22
One's called the buy, sell, hold index, and that one's a weighted average system.
9:26
I get a score out of 10, I'm looking at 16 data points.
9:30
One would be recent sales trends.
9:32
The other one is, uh, market liquidity.
9:34
How frequently is this year, make, model or type of car appearing on, on auctions
9:39
and auction websites and live and online.
9:41
I'm also looking at how these cars are selling at auction.
9:44
Do is what's the sell through rate for them?
9:46
Community, sentiment and buzz.
9:47
So I'm also looking at what's going on online and in print.
9:51
How often are these cars discussed or talked about?
9:53
Is there a lot of nostalgic tailwinds to them to spur them on a little bit more?
9:57
Was there TV use, like say Magnum, pi, Ferrari?
10:00
You know, that sort of burned into my memory bank and probably judging from
10:04
the four of us, that might be something that we identified with as young folks.
10:08
Ownership costs and how complex they are to service, how costly they are to
10:12
service, or how cheap they are to service.
10:14
I like the test.
10:15
I gave it a three out of 10 for ownership costs and maintenance costs.
10:18
But you know, you could take an 84, 85 to 93, uh, Fox Body Mustang five
10:24
liter, and you'd probably be looking at eight or nine for a score because
10:28
their parts are available readily and they're relatively inexpensive.
10:31
The other thing is, again, cultural and historical significance.
10:34
Was there a competition history or like, say a copo Camaro
10:38
from 69 ruled the drag strips.
10:40
They were, uh, burned in everybody's memory.
10:42
Banks.
10:43
That's, you know, anybody up to around Gen X and millennial.
10:46
That gives a good tailwind as well.
10:48
Is there export and import demand?
10:49
Are there a. Cars crossing the border, say from Canada to the US
10:53
or Europe to the us I'm also looking at regulatory and legal pressures
10:57
depending on what the jurisdiction is.
10:58
So, as you know, in England it's ultra low emission zones and
11:02
uh, you can't park anywhere.
11:03
Whereas here in Canada, it's uh, electric vehicles are getting pushed
11:06
like crazy here and we're being sort of coerced into that space.
11:10
Despite my opinions about that, how rare or how common are
11:14
the cars, things like that.
11:15
So again, there's 16 data points that I'm going over with that.
11:18
But you want something that's got some action.
11:20
So these are just sort of test cases where I'm publishing them myself
11:23
right now to show people what I do.
11:25
Because it is interesting with the tester because as I was leading
11:28
and I kind of chuckle myself.
11:29
Some years ago, the flying mirror cars, I either the Monte spec or
11:33
however you wanna pronounce it, were not the car anyone wanted.
11:35
They wanted the two mirror only that, but now it's gone the other way.
11:38
Now people want the flying mirror.
11:40
Yeah.
11:40
So it's got a little more value to and stuff, and it was just, it
11:42
makes me chuckle towards the end.
11:43
Then you got the TRS and you got the five 12 M. So it's got those variants in
11:47
there where those variables are there.
11:48
But it really can kind of say like, pinpointing is like going
11:51
to your customer, saying, okay.
11:52
What are you looking to buy?
11:54
What are you trying to achieve with it?
11:55
Yes.
11:56
It's like, well you could have this low build towards the end production,
11:59
final tweaks, beginning, build, flying mirror, you know, you need
12:01
this da da da and that kind of stuff.
12:02
But you know, you have everything going across it, which I
12:04
thought was really neat too.
12:05
'cause you usually don't see that is not only did you have the sell, but
12:08
auction ones, you know ones that didn't.
12:10
And I mean, someone that's looking into buying up test row potentially.
12:14
Don and it's great information to really make an educated purchase
12:18
because you can see where it's at.
12:20
Exactly.
12:21
Now what I tell my people is like, look, you know, if you're buying this as an
12:24
investment and think you're gonna make money, that's not the way to buy a car.
12:26
But if you wanna, you got the data that's backing up, which is fantastic
12:30
'cause you can really see where things go and that, that was a great example.
12:33
You know, I mean, you nailed it.
12:34
It's a great bellwether in regards to putting information out there.
12:37
One, there are enough of them built, but also enough variations of it technically.
12:41
Okay, what are you looking to do?
12:42
Or where would you wanna be at?
12:43
And because it, it's an awesome site.
12:44
Thank you.
12:45
It's fantastic.
12:46
And to get that some granularity to what value and sort of what
12:50
the, uh, the recommendation is.
12:52
So it's kinda like on CNBC or whatever, they're saying, this is a buyer or a
12:55
sell, or I recommend this kind of thing.
12:57
It's a bit of a dangerous thing.
12:59
So I have to say, here's the data to support what I'm saying.
13:02
You're an adult and you're a decision maker.
13:04
This is meant to guide you and your advisors and to help you to
13:08
make those decisions yourself.
13:09
Yeah.
13:10
But yeah, there's so many variables.
13:11
And the other thing is classic and collector cars is such a passion
13:15
driven field and it's only exploded over the last 10, 15 years.
13:19
And I did a report on the, uh, 1989 to 94 Ferrari apocalypse.
13:24
I called.
13:25
There were a lot of enthusiasts, but there was a lot of speculation, a lot of
13:28
Japanese money that was in the market.
13:30
And a lot of those cars have since been repatriated over
13:33
here to North America again.
13:34
But I remember that very, very well, uh, as a student because always had a love
13:39
for classic cars and collector cars.
13:41
But getting the analysts take on and in the financial papers
13:44
was kind of eye opening for me.
13:46
I think we're in a much broader market.
13:48
There's a much more solid base to work from in the market today, and
13:51
a lot of the online auctions and a lot of the live auctions with the
13:54
cars that they've expanded into.
13:56
Enthusiast cars, Japanese cars, BMWs, A MG, Mercedes, stuff like that.
14:02
Where people are really getting into it and very fiercely loyal.
14:05
It's just made everything better for everybody, a lot better base to work from.
14:08
It's not as peaky as it used to be or as focused on one mark or one type of car.
14:13
Do you see AI playing some type of role in this in regards to the
14:16
data and everything like that?
14:17
You have to be extremely careful with AI as it stands right now, and it's never.
14:22
Something you can rely on 110%.
14:24
You have to really question everything.
14:27
I think it actually demands as much diligence as being an expert in a certain
14:32
field and doing your own research.
14:34
You still have to question everything.
14:35
You still have to double check everything.
14:37
Even if you use it.
14:38
It's a tool.
14:39
It's a help.
14:40
It doesn't replace what people are already doing.
14:42
No, I agree.
14:43
Yeah, it, it's just one of those things that if harnessed properly can
14:46
be powerful and helpful, but if used lackadaisically, it's going to show.
14:51
As such.
14:52
Definitely.
14:53
When someone comes to you for a report, what's their number one compared to their
14:56
number five in regards to, this is what I'm looking for to get out of this report?
15:00
What are they really trying to delve into and get out of it?
15:03
Ever since I've gotten into the business as a catalog writer, you're in contact
15:06
with owners all the time, unless you're told not to contact somebody.
15:10
I've had so many conversations with so many great people and and
15:13
the number one thing is, Dave, what do you think my car's worth?
15:17
Yep.
15:17
How much can I get?
15:18
Yeah.
15:18
Well, I'm not a qualified appraiser.
15:20
Right.
15:20
You have to be so diplomatic when you're dealing with people.
15:23
'cause it's also a very emotional thing.
15:24
A lot of people are very attached to this type of thing, more
15:27
so than other luxury items.
15:28
Like I call them alternative assets.
15:30
I mean, you know, some people are really turned on by the
15:32
wines they have in their cellar.
15:34
Okay, great.
15:34
But it seems like the passion component or the emotional aspect of ownership
15:39
really attaches to collector cars.
15:41
Very much so.
15:42
But what do you think my car is worth?
15:43
And I have to kind of steer the conversation away.
15:45
Yeah.
15:46
Because it's outside my pay grade or here's what the reserve is.
15:50
Do you think that's right?
15:51
And everybody's always looking for a sounding board.
15:53
They're always wanting to know that they're making a sound decision.
15:56
Oh yeah.
15:56
Yeah.
15:56
The other thing is auction estimates.
15:58
Always problematic.
15:59
That takes a lot of handholding as well.
16:01
So that's one of the things I do in one of my reports is, uh, help out
16:04
with suggested reserve prices and suggested estimate ranges as well.
16:09
And, and the other thing, an appraisal is a snapshot at a specific moment
16:13
in time and things can change.
16:15
So I have people that would come to me and they'd give me an appraisal report
16:18
that's four or five years old and I'd have to gently tell them it's way outta date.
16:22
And yeah, you need to have another one.
16:23
I recommend you get another one.
16:25
And I have a list of people.
16:26
That you may wanna choose from, but this is sort of a tool that
16:29
can help with that process.
16:31
They generate comparables, which really helps as well.
16:34
I've seen some appraisal reports, not everywhere, but I've seen them where
16:37
it just says, this is the type of car that does very well at certain options.
16:41
And there you go.
16:42
So you have to have the due diligence, you have to have comparables, you
16:44
have to have a methodology as well.
16:46
So that's baked into those reports as well as, you know.
16:49
An auction sale number can a lot of times not really
16:52
indicate true value of that car.
16:55
'cause who knows the two people buying us like that.
16:57
But then you also have, okay, like retail sales, you know, market out there price.
17:00
That was fantastic too.
17:01
'cause you know exactly why that thing sold for that because so and so and so and
17:05
so were bidding over so it went $500,000 over the high, that kind of stuff.
17:09
Whereas, okay, here's reality.
17:11
'cause again, like a client comes to you, they have a car.
17:13
What can I get or what's my car worth?
17:15
Well, it's like, well, here, let's look at the numbers.
17:17
But then it's also, well, we gotta look at your car too.
17:19
'cause this is what there're, but we gotta see where your car's placed at.
17:21
Exactly.
17:21
You have all those different pit points that you can kind of say,
17:24
say, look, here's an auction thing.
17:25
Here's privacy, here's retail.
17:27
You know, here's what it got bid to.
17:28
It didn't sell.
17:29
Say on bring a trailer.
17:30
You have those numbers too.
17:31
Well, it can really give.
17:33
Someone for like me going to someone with their car wanting to sell it,
17:36
they'll go like, here, you know?
17:38
Right there, it's straightforward.
17:40
It's giving you exactly what you're looking for, where you wanna be at, and
17:43
give yourself a good, educated decision.
17:45
You know, obviously when it boils down to it, you can give all the details,
17:48
info you want to the owner or whoever, but they're gonna make their own choice.
17:52
Yeah, that's right.
17:53
You know, you don't want them to burn themselves out there and
17:55
go, oh, I think my car's worth 2 million when it's worth one.
17:58
You know, that kind of stuff.
17:59
Oh, yeah.
17:59
You know, because then the car's done.
18:00
That's right.
18:01
As I've been listening to you guys talk about the valuation system of the
18:06
vehicles and how the metrics are put together and how the data is analyzed,
18:09
there's a very important undercurrent here that I think we need to address
18:13
head on, which is worth versus value, and they are not the same thing, although
18:19
people think they are synonymous.
18:20
But I just wanna understand where the high watermark is because if I
18:24
was an investor looking at, let's say, the Testa roaster report.
18:27
I'm not seeing the appraised value, which for me is the high watermark of
18:31
what the vehicle could sell for based on what I've been told by an official
18:37
in the market versus to Williams' point, what the auctions are saying
18:40
because the auctions are subjective.
18:42
If I got into a bidding war with you and that car is suddenly $500,000 over, if I'm
18:47
a data analyst, that to me is an extreme that gets taken out of the equation.
18:51
Yeah, it's an outlier.
18:52
It skews the data set.
18:53
What is the tester Rosa actually worth?
18:55
Based on what the appraisers are saying versus when the gavel drops.
19:00
That's why I want a little bit of better understanding, and I have
19:02
a feeling the audience is sort of wondering, how does your math work
19:05
when you come up with these valuations?
19:07
I use, uh, number one, the number four condition grades for
19:10
specific vehicles and mileage.
19:12
Mileage would go into the equation to colors, even colors.
19:16
Some are far more rare than others that help influence the market value.
19:19
As far as appraisals go, I, I wholeheartedly agree, someone needs
19:23
to actually see the vehicle needs to take a look at what I'm doing, but they
19:27
need to look at the vehicle itself, of course, and that can be different than
19:30
what's been selling in the marketplace, where the numbers are coming from.
19:33
I've seen many times where an appraisal comes in.
19:36
10 to 40% higher than than what an actual market value is.
19:40
Depends on how recent it is as well.
19:42
It's the same thing as with a real estate appraisal.
19:44
When I was in banking, you'd have a, a market value estimate from the
19:47
appraiser, but you'd also have a replacement value for the physical item.
19:51
You know, what it would take to replace it.
19:53
And those are always two different things as well.
19:55
Mine is based more on market and momentum.
19:57
If there's good buying activity or selling activity, if there's any
20:01
kind of like a velocity in the market where cars are moving or not moving,
20:05
it would pick up on that as well.
20:06
But doesn't that fall victim to the same adage in housing, which
20:09
is your house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
20:12
At the end of the day, regardless of what the numbers say in the
20:14
house buying process, the appraisal is over what it's selling for or
20:18
it's under what it's selling for.
20:19
So we're in that same game.
20:20
So the car is worth what someone is willing to pay for it at
20:23
the end of the day, right?
20:24
Yeah.
20:24
You need willing buyer and a willing seller and a, and a reasonable.
20:26
Timeframe.
20:27
Yeah.
20:27
So going back to the data to establish trend.
20:30
Mm-hmm.
20:31
You still need a, like in science, you need a constant to test
20:34
against, in your case, for your data set, what is your constant?
20:37
Is it mecu M'S value?
20:39
Is it Sotheby's value?
20:40
Is it an a private appraisal value?
20:42
'cause you have to have something across the vehicles to make it consistent.
20:46
Oh, for sure.
20:47
Where I get my numbers, I make a weighted average to get my score
20:50
that I score a car at out of 10.
20:52
So.
20:52
Let's look at the tester example here.
20:55
Sure.
20:55
Let's stay with that.
20:56
I'm looking at not only the different auction houses online and a and live, one
21:00
of the biggest tools I use is actually classic.com, if you've seen that, where it
21:04
has a rolling five year, uh, scatterplot of all the sales that have taken place
21:08
and listings, even if it's unsold.
21:11
So that's a huge tool to use.
21:12
So I'm going back as far as I can through that.
21:15
I use, again, a condition multiplier.
21:17
My assumptions are based on whether or not a car, unless I'm told otherwise,
21:20
is an excellent number two condition.
21:23
If it's a Concor quality car, it's gonna have a 20% multiplier.
21:26
If it's a driver, number three, we're gonna take the baseline down by 20%.
21:30
So I'm looking at sales trend.
21:32
For the value scope that I did for the test aero, I'm looking
21:35
at rarity or commonality.
21:37
So the score will be higher or lower for cultural significance.
21:39
So the, the test aerosa gets a bump, it's like a nine outta 10 as far as
21:43
its, uh, pop culture status cost.
21:46
I also look at maintenance costs and service costs.
21:49
The higher, the worse it is.
21:50
So I'm not a mechanic, but I think you need an engine out
21:52
just to do the timing belt.
21:54
So that's weighed into this as well.
21:55
Demographics, which generations are, are into these cars or not, and whether or
21:59
not these cars are steady at the auctions.
22:01
Definitely this is meant to supplement or assist in the process.
22:06
I always tell people to get an proper appraisal, get a recent, a fresh one, so
22:09
you know also what you're dealing with in terms of condition and comparables.
22:13
With this, I'm coming up with 160,000 US for that generation of tester, Rosa,
22:18
if you're looking for a sale, and as far as reserve prices, so if you're
22:21
taking one to auction, just don't want listeners to think that, well, this is
22:25
the Kelley Blue Book for classic cars.
22:26
'cause it's not.
22:27
Gosh, no, no.
22:28
Because if you think about the things that you're describing and the one to
22:31
five scale and take into account mileage and the options and the color and that.
22:34
Mm-hmm.
22:35
Kelly does the same thing for pedestrian cars.
22:37
Yep.
22:37
We wanna make sure that we differentiate when we're talking about this.
22:41
Maybe this is a future capability.
22:43
Say I'm going the other direction and William and I have these
22:46
conversations all the time.
22:47
I got 200,000 to spend.
22:48
So tester Rosas on the list, but how does this compare to maybe a car that's
22:52
older of more significance or a car that's newer that might not have all
22:56
these mechanical issues like you talked about engine out to do timing belts.
23:00
Chain driven Ferrari where I can spend 200 grand and still
23:03
have a V 12 or whatever it is.
23:05
So, comparables across vehicles or is that yet to come?
23:08
That's something I'm gonna be rolling out a bit more as I, as I evolve things.
23:12
The biggest thing is if you've got a more rare car.
23:15
It's going to score higher in my scoring matrix.
23:18
If it's easier to maintain, that'll have a better score too.
23:21
So you could take a car that's less exotic, but perhaps more
23:25
rare in terms of build numbers.
23:26
It'll have its own scores and weightings that'll help us to determine value, but
23:30
it also ties into what auction and online, offline, and dealers are selling for.
23:36
But there might be a chance to identify through this system, a car
23:40
that might break out to the buy side.
23:42
Or one that's already been loved in the market and it might be time for a pause
23:46
or a break in selling or, or value.
23:48
So it just depends on the individual, you're make and model kind of thing.
23:51
And it, it's individual attributes Above all, you know, this should be
23:54
something that would be considered to help with selling, marketing, and
23:58
auction set up for a car like this.
24:00
Always have an appraisal though from a, an accredited appraiser
24:04
in combination, I figure that more information is better than less.
24:07
Of course.
24:08
David, are you primarily focusing on the exotics on the Ferraris
24:11
and Lamborghinis of Porsches, or are you gonna grow this out to.
24:16
As Eric always has more pedestrian type cars.
24:19
I mean, for example, the IROC Camaro Yeah.
24:21
Is absolutely going crazy right now.
24:23
They are, and that to me has always been, I mean, I don't wanna say surprising.
24:27
I've always liked that car.
24:28
Always knew it would be somewhere I don't think I knew it would be this.
24:32
Somewhere.
24:33
So is that a car that's on your site?
24:35
Are we looking at oddballs like for a name?
24:37
Taurus, SHO.
24:38
Yeah.
24:39
That car is slowly starting to percolate or are you sticking to that narrowed?
24:44
We love exotics.
24:45
Where, where are we going with this?
24:47
Yeah.
24:47
The starting point was just me doing some test cases and then illustrating the
24:51
methods that I'm using to get my numbers.
24:53
If it was anything, like you said, uh, an IROC from the eighties
24:57
and there's a couple of different flavors of them, enough that you can
25:00
break that down into more granular.
25:02
Types of cars inside of them?
25:03
Like are you looking at the five liter or the 5.7?
25:06
Are you looking at the one L?
25:08
Yeah, it's got the compact.
25:09
Yeah.
25:09
I'd love to tackle those because there's a huge amount of sales data
25:13
on those and the good cars, like the really nice unadulterated original
25:18
cars are so rare in that space.
25:20
It's like fox Mustangs.
25:22
But I think what I would do is I'd have to break it down like
25:24
you said, and thank you for that.
25:25
You said the iroc, so that gives me more certainty with what I'm dealing with.
25:30
The only difference would be powertrain colors and condition and mileage.
25:34
That'd be an interesting test case.
25:35
So if someone wanted me to do that, I, I, I'd be happy to run one and, and
25:38
just so they see it, because that's a, a more mainstream car right now.
25:41
It's like second generation F bodies are starting to kind of make a nice breakout.
25:46
They were everywhere and people just kind of went, we like
25:49
'em, but we don't know why.
25:50
They're not really doing much in the market, and you can buy much more powerful
25:54
cars or this, that, or the other thing.
25:56
But they were very special for their time.
25:59
And now people like me, I had a 10th anniversary, uh, TransAm back in the
26:02
eighties that I saved up for with farm money and lawn mowing and hay baling
26:06
money and tobacco picking money.
26:08
And that was my first car.
26:09
And, and I absolutely adored it.
26:11
But now second Gen F. Bodies are starting to get their due
26:13
a little bit in the market.
26:14
So I'm appreciating seeing those kind of cars that were produced in larger numbers,
26:19
having attention now with enthusiast.
26:21
Yeah, absolutely.
26:21
I'd love to see what fits a buy seller.
26:23
A hold over my four time periods.
26:25
I brought up the Camaro 'cause it's a common, and it's certainly
26:28
not in the, uh, in the ballpark of pastor or tta or any of those guys.
26:33
That's not necessarily true, Don.
26:34
And that this adds another use case.
26:36
To the equation here in that you have cars crossing the block in Mecu at
26:40
Barrett Jackson at other auction houses where you have a modified Camaro or a
26:46
Resto Modd Camaro, or something that is, you know, is a SEMA quality car,
26:50
which is beyond concourses level.
26:52
Is that being taken to account here?
26:54
Because those will sell for $200,000 all day long, right?
26:57
Yeah.
26:57
David, how are you absorbing those modified versions instead
27:01
of the original purist cars?
27:03
I think that the modified cars, especially F Bodies and Corvettes, especially
27:09
second generation Corvettes, there's just so many of them that are built
27:12
to that standard that are restomod, couple of orders of magnitude better
27:16
than the original car in terms of what it's like to drive or operate.
27:19
What I would do in those cases is separate that out, you know, look at
27:22
the modified cars more in isolation that are done to a show standard as opposed
27:27
to something that's more original.
27:28
It changes your metrics again, because those cars need to be considered,
27:32
let's say they're numbers matching.
27:33
Even though they're modified, they still are in the same category
27:36
as a numbers matching stock car.
27:38
Why would we take them out?
27:39
It gets a little gray really fast.
27:41
Well, if the car that the customer's asking me about is a stock or a
27:45
modified car, then that's where I'm gonna have to like break that out.
27:49
So I'm comparing apples to apples instead of apples to oranges.
27:52
That's why I started out with four GT Heritage.
27:55
That's a very uniform car.
27:57
Unless it's been modified and there are a few out there, like you were
27:59
saying before, what's my car worth?
28:01
And somebody says, no, David, that's not what it's worth.
28:03
I just saw a Copo Xma car go across the block and it's 250,000.
28:08
Why isn't my Camaro 250,000?
28:10
Right?
28:10
So now you get into this tug of war again of worth versus value.
28:14
So I wanna make sure that we establish that so people really understand what the
28:17
intrinsic value is versus what it's worth.
28:20
So one is more subjective than the other.
28:22
I know I keep harping on this, but I think it's important for the first
28:25
time collector to understand that you just don't walk up to an auction,
28:29
go, I want that one, or I'm gonna sell mine because I saw that one.
28:32
Right?
28:32
It's not a monkey see, monkey do situation.
28:34
Now I've seen people do that actually walk right up to me at an auction
28:37
and just say, how much is that car?
28:39
I wanna buy it right now.
28:40
I didn't buy it last night.
28:41
There are people out there that are like that.
28:43
Again.
28:44
Yeah.
28:44
I'd have to parse out is the car modified?
28:46
Is it standard?
28:47
Is it, you know, rest a monitor?
28:48
Is it just lightly modified?
28:50
I mean, headers and duals don't make anything too much of an outlier.
28:53
In this case.
28:54
It's gonna be a little bit of a custom job.
28:56
I always like that there's expectation.
28:58
There's reality that I always like, 'cause people have this expectation.
29:02
But then here's reality.
29:04
Here's where I found the gap is widest is dealing with.
29:07
An enthusiast type car that someone's owned for a while and they have a bit
29:11
of an emotional bond with, there's a, an older couple, a few years ago they
29:15
had a 56 Ford Fairlane, crown Victoria.
29:18
They'd owned it for 30, 35 years.
29:20
They loved it.
29:20
They went cruising with it, but it's a driver.
29:22
They were so attached to it that, again, when you're talking
29:24
about value versus worth.
29:26
They had 30 years with it of fun cruising and showing they bought it when it was not
29:31
worth comparatively as much as it is now.
29:33
And certainly inflation also figures into the numbers that people
29:37
are expecting to get from a car.
29:38
A million dollars today was a hundred thousand dollars about
29:42
15 years ago, or 20 years ago.
29:43
I'm exaggerating a little bit, but there's a big gulf based on inflation.
29:47
So I said to the pe, the lady I said.
29:49
What do you have in mind for a value?
29:51
She told me and I said, now, just so that you know, in this market right now,
29:56
that's a bit on the high side, and you know, does the car owe you anything?
30:00
Do you owe money on it?
30:01
Was there a huge expense that you've had over the last few years that's
30:04
going to affect your decision?
30:05
And often a lot of people.
30:06
When they've made a big investment in a vehicle after buying it,
30:10
they feel they need to recoup that last dollar they put into it.
30:13
And that's another thing.
30:15
But I've seen the gulf between market value and personal value or worth is
30:19
huge on the more mainstream side of cars.
30:22
A lot of people on the higher end of the market are kind of dialed in and they
30:25
want to do the best when they're selling and they wanna do, do the best when
30:28
they're buying and get the lowest price.
30:30
But I've seen it more on the sub $50,000 car market where there's that
30:33
kind of golf cars can even, like, depending on where they come from.
30:36
I'm not drilling down into that aspect of it right now, but there's certain
30:39
markets or certain locations where cars are just uniformly of better quality.
30:43
Especially in the mainstream side or the enthusiast side.
30:46
Obviously you know, you're doing these for a customer or client, you know,
30:49
so it's obviously model specific, but what is driving you to put ones onto
30:53
your site for general consumption?
30:55
Yeah.
30:56
How are you picking what to put on your site then?
30:58
Because obviously the tester was a great example.
31:00
I think the four GT one's a great one too, because you know it's a very popular
31:03
car, but how are you going about picking those, what you're gonna put on the
31:05
website for just general consumption?
31:07
For those that are like test cases that I'm publishing proactively,
31:11
there's a finite bill number.
31:12
Now the tester is not particularly rare with over 7,000 built, but it's
31:18
far more rare than a lot of other exotics and uh, high performance
31:21
cars despite that many being built.
31:23
The tester is styling the cultural status of it.
31:26
You know, having been on Miami Vice and that whole thing.
31:28
I think that just is a good test case because that's something that a lot
31:31
of people, whether or not they own one or plan to own one, they can at
31:35
least identify with to some extent.
31:36
The four GT on the other hand is that Heritage Edition is just.
31:40
Really rare.
31:41
There's no question as to whether or not they're real or faked.
31:43
That's the other thing.
31:44
Unlike some vehicles that out there that have that potential, both of 'em.
31:48
I mean, I've only seen a few modified gts, let alone a heritage that's
31:51
been modified and tester roses.
31:53
I don't see them being modified very often at all.
31:56
No, you don't.
31:56
So it's a nice case because they're fairly uniform in that subset of cars.
32:01
Or the models that their manufacturer made.
32:03
So I thought I'd try those because I think there's some rarity to them.
32:06
There's some visual impact.
32:07
The performance aspect is interesting and they're just
32:10
interesting cars all around that.
32:11
People, I think, would gravitate to just to throw that out there just to show what
32:15
my different tools, if I run a certain year, make model through those filters.
32:20
Is it a buy?
32:20
Is it a sell?
32:21
Is it a hold?
32:22
What are the timeframes for those things?
32:24
It's a good example for, I would say a sales tool for you
32:26
in regards to getting clients.
32:28
Yeah.
32:28
They see that.
32:29
They're like, oh, okay.
32:30
It's a good basis to work from for somebody to get the idea of
32:32
what you're capable of doing.
32:34
That's what I took from that.
32:35
I was like, wow, this is great.
32:35
If someone sees it, Hey, I want an individual report, that the right thing.
32:38
It's like, there you go.
32:39
It says it all right there.
32:40
So that was fantastic.
32:41
Sort of just a couple of test cases.
32:42
I'm gonna keep rolling them out and also the market changes.
32:45
From auction to auction or there's trends definitely.
32:49
But the idea is eventually, uh, those reports will need to be freshened up a
32:52
little bit and to see how they compare.
32:54
So maybe a year from now I go back and just have a look
32:56
at how do my calls hold up.
32:58
And the idea is if they hold up or maybe there's some tweaks that need
33:01
to be made or maybe something happened in the market in general that's, uh,
33:05
affecting market values in that space.
33:07
Say the 250,000 and over, or the a hundred thousand and over market segments.
33:11
Yeah.
33:11
How are you going to make.
33:12
That decision to go back and revisit something to adjust it to your 0.6 months
33:18
or a year, I mean, or you just go, oh, the market seems to be gone a different way.
33:21
I had just done that, so I better go back and do it.
33:23
I mean, you could have a set time maybe, or just gonna say what the market
33:26
does, if it necessitates it to do it.
33:28
I was doing a forward market index looking ahead the next 30 days in the
33:33
market, and then to get a score as to just the market in general, its health.
33:38
And whether it's bear neutral or or a bull market, kind of like in financial terms.
33:43
What I've done now is I've changed that to weekly.
33:45
So I'm doing weekly forecasts.
33:47
Right now.
33:47
I'm only getting them published Tuesdays or Wednesdays, but
33:50
it's for the week ahead.
33:51
Then afterwards, when this week is over on Monday, I'm gonna run a
33:55
report and that's the market pulse and that's my Fear Andre Index.
33:59
And I'm gonna say, how did my forecast hold up against reality?
34:02
I've done a couple of posts now that show that both the weekly
34:07
forecast and then the look.
34:08
Back the retroactive look.
34:10
Those are both now pretty closely aligned.
34:12
So it's, it's showing that the methodology is jiving.
34:15
When I make a forecast using my system, when I look back the next week, they're
34:19
almost in line with each other perfectly.
34:21
So, yeah, I, what I'd probably want to do is maybe a month to three months out
34:25
at the end of the year, say, how did my report on the test Aerosa workout?
34:28
Did that logic hold up?
34:29
Did my call on the four gts?
34:31
How did that hold up over this period of time?
34:33
You just do a little bit of back testing like that just to show that it's working.
34:37
I like how you're, you're referencing t how did I do?
34:40
Yeah, in regards to forecast, which is great 'cause a lot of people would bury
34:43
it 'cause they don't wanna look like they prove it wrong or had no idea.
34:46
But anyone that knows this industry and business, you never know.
34:48
I mean, you can use all the numbers you don't know, but I really like that too.
34:52
Yeah.
34:52
I was like, look, here's how it went and I don't have anything to hide.
34:54
I'm just putting this out there.
34:56
This is my method.
34:57
Does it hold up?
34:58
Okay, great.
34:58
It did hold up.
34:59
So I've had two one week periods where the, uh, forward look and the look
35:03
back were in line with each other.
35:05
They almost had the same scores, you know, so the look back is the reality
35:09
and the look forward is the forecast.
35:11
Of course, that seems to be working.
35:13
One of the things I've worked in is sort of geopolitics a little bit too.
35:17
You know, how's the news?
35:17
Is it bad or is it stable?
35:19
Or is it good?
35:20
You know, or is everybody getting along now?
35:23
In this week's newsletter once I get it out.
35:25
Finally, the first post is I'm breaking a golden cardinal rule here.
35:29
I'm actually discussing politics.
35:30
One of the things I should be talking about, but here's a
35:32
buffet of seven potential black swans that could land anytime.
35:36
I don't wanna throw cold water and everything.
35:38
The market's been good.
35:39
The market has breadth.
35:40
There's a wide market.
35:42
There's a huge number of types of cars, classifications of cars, enthusiasts to
35:47
investor grade and everything in between.
35:49
So it's not like the narrow Ferrari market of 35 years ago, and that's it,
35:53
where it's very risky and speculative.
35:55
Also, the last 25 to 30 years, there's a just a massive amount of money in
36:00
the system, despite the news you hear.
36:02
There's people that are getting huge bonuses and they have to put it somewhere.
36:05
There's only so much real estate you can buy.
36:07
There's only so much fine wine, cigars, time pieces you can buy.
36:11
So, so that's where the, our market's, uh, really been getting an uplift as well.
36:16
There's a chart, I've got a report on showing insider buying and selling
36:19
of stocks, but with one or two brief.
36:21
Moments since 1998, company insiders have been selling stocks and freeing up
36:26
capital and buying cars among other things as well can be a lot more prevalent.
36:30
I mean, you've seen it now where they got the investor goose, whatnot, buy a
36:32
chair for $20 and whatever, you know?
36:34
Oh, yeah.
36:35
Like the fractional ownership.
36:36
Yeah.
36:36
Yeah.
36:37
I've only just recently seen four or five of them where there were one of them
36:41
that's kind of cropping up right now.
36:42
It'd be interesting to see how that goes.
36:44
I mean, what I'd like to do is actually build a list where there's a specific
36:48
set of, say, 20 different year make and model of cars that have the most
36:53
potential to be good to purchase.
36:55
They're not overpriced right now.
36:57
They're emerging as collectibles, and someone could put a fund together or
37:00
put a group together or for themselves and use those reports as guidance.
37:04
To build a garage full of great cars and hopefully enjoy them.
37:07
It's not all about the money.
37:09
Drive 'em.
37:09
Absolutely.
37:10
It's a major consideration for people getting into purchase
37:13
or getting into the market.
37:14
But for me, it's the love of them.
37:16
I see stuff on marketplace every day.
37:18
There's beautiful cars being sold for less than 10,000 Canadian dollars
37:22
that have less than 50,000 miles on them, and they're fun and interesting.
37:26
You don't have to spend a huge amount of money on something like this.
37:29
It can be a really fun hobby.
37:30
I think the biggest thing is, for me, it was just simply.
37:33
There's other content creators out there that are doing that job so well
37:38
and building their niche so well.
37:39
I have rudimentary skills with a camera.
37:42
Forget video.
37:43
There's other people that have bigger followings or they know
37:45
how to work the algorithms to get the right response they want.
37:48
For me, it was simply, I'd like to see if I can add some value to
37:52
people where you can take a look at these reports or you can order a
37:56
report from me and I can build it.
37:58
And then that gives you some confidence as to what you're doing.
38:01
Or maybe it's a confidence in something you're not doing.
38:04
Maybe it's saying, I better just hold onto this for another year.
38:06
If it's not costing me money, if it's not hurting me, maybe I just hang onto it.
38:10
This has been interesting.
38:11
In the past few years, there's been an explosion in regards
38:14
to value in classic race car.
38:17
They've been going to the roof and you have log samples going across the board.
38:20
You know, we had X collection go for 650 million.
38:23
I mean, that was an incredible thing, but.
38:24
Would you be able to do a report on someone that's looking at,
38:28
Hey, I'm looking at this XY, ZX formula, the one car from 1969,
38:32
or you know, old Lamont's car.
38:33
Is that something you could potentially do as well for an old race car?
38:36
And I want to dovetail off that, William, because I think now when
38:40
David takes that into account, he needs to invert his scale because a
38:43
concourses quality race car never raced.
38:46
Yeah.
38:46
Right.
38:46
You want the one that's the driver with the miles.
38:49
Yeah.
38:49
That won a championship.
38:50
So you actually have to skew your data set opposite for this.
38:54
Yeah.
38:54
For a competition car.
38:55
Exactly.
38:55
Yeah, because you, you have to have some earmarks of actual
38:58
use in combat or in anger.
39:01
There's a Jaguar D type once a few years back.
39:04
I think it brought over $20 million at auction in Monterey.
39:08
That was achieved, even though that card had been beaten up so much that the
39:11
chassis tag was the only thing, and the, and a stamp on, on one of the frame rails
39:15
was all that was left of it that actually crossed the finish line At Lamont, there's
39:18
a lot of Ferrari that have been re bodied or whatever, and it's part of the story.
39:22
The one of the coolest ones for me is that two 50 GT uh, bread wagon.
39:26
I used to know the fellow that owned it one or two owners ago,
39:30
and he raced it in vintage races.
39:31
We saw it this summer at Lamont Classic.
39:34
Yeah.
39:34
Yeah.
39:34
And it's driven, right?
39:36
Oh yeah.
39:36
It was raced at full tilt this summer.
39:38
Yeah.
39:38
Yeah.
39:39
And it's, and the thing about it though is, okay, so a lot of body
39:42
panels, it got stuffed a couple times and it's mostly there.
39:45
And you know, some expert redid the body, I mean.
39:48
As authentic as it can possibly be, but the car was reburied back in
39:52
the day, so does it really matter?
39:53
You know, that car's raced and it's been in combat kind of thing, and to
39:57
me that just makes that car even cooler and more desirable than a lot of others.
40:01
Let's take that back to our Testa.
40:03
Yeah, use case or our Camaros and everything we've
40:05
been talking about so far.
40:06
Can you touch upon your feeling as it applies to the data when you start
40:11
getting into the age old, debate preservation versus restoration?
40:15
'cause if I look at those five categories, yeah.
40:17
As we move down to the driver, you know, the negatives to get
40:20
applied to the value of the car.
40:22
You could also say that a preservation car lives there
40:25
because it's never been serviced.
40:27
It's been driven.
40:28
It's ori.
40:28
Yeah.
40:29
But a lot of people pay top dollar for a preservation class car
40:33
versus a restoration concourse.
40:35
Well, yeah, and that was a completely opposite, flipped 20, 30 years ago,
40:39
where everything had to be like jewelry.
40:40
What I can do is, the nice thing is if I have logic, I can just change some
40:45
of the scoring around a little bit to recognize the fact that a preservation
40:49
class car is actually worth more Now in certain, certain circumstances,
40:53
like it's an unrestored classic Enzo.
40:55
V 12 Ferrari, and if it's presentable and it's got a great story, then
41:00
there's something to be said for that.
41:01
So I think there's adjustments that can be made, just like when you're
41:03
adjusting comps on an appraisal, like with Ferrari, Jaguar, Mercedes, you
41:07
know, you're seeing the manufacturer come up with their own class, each
41:12
department, and restoring these cars.
41:14
How much value is that adding to it compared to going to an expert store
41:17
that's been doing it for 30, 40 years?
41:19
I mean, they've won Pebble Beach, they've won all this stuff, you know, it's great.
41:22
But how much does the manufacturer trump someone like that?
41:26
Percentage wise, or is it really kind of a wash?
41:28
Does it matter?
41:28
A classic department restoration from the factory.
41:31
Versus an expert level restoration or a Conor level restoration
41:36
externally by a specialist.
41:37
There's times where I've seen value bumps, and you've seen them too, where if a
41:41
known re restorer with a great reputation and a great crew hold off a concor
41:45
winning restoration, or a multiple award.
41:48
Restoration, I would think that that would actually enhance value.
41:50
But I've also seen in the market where that has not enhanced value
41:54
at an auction or a sale situation.
41:55
Because 30 years ago, a jewelry level restoration that removed all the patina
42:01
was worth more than preservation car.
42:03
And now we've seen it flip, see in V 12 Ferrari, as you know,
42:06
in matters to me, uh, and to a lot of people I've worked with.
42:09
If a noted specialist who was still alive at the time did the, the engine rebuild,
42:13
for example, that trumps a no name.
42:16
Even though they did good work, you know, sadly, I mean, there's a name
42:19
that's built for a good reason and that's because they've done good work.
42:22
Then I think that helps with the value.
42:24
There's a lot of subjective factors though.
42:26
Well, I get it.
42:27
In my world, Hey, so and so did the register.
42:29
That's who you want.
42:30
Does it have it Red Book?
42:31
You know, has it gone through class sheet?
42:32
It's like, okay, yeah, it's got this redwood, but doesn't always kind
42:35
of really bugged me a little bit.
42:36
That's what everyone wants, and now it's getting more prevalent
42:38
in newer cars, so to speak.
42:40
It's creeping up into your nineties, early 2000 cars,
42:43
depending on what it is model wise.
42:45
That's the thing that's like number one to have right off the
42:48
bat if you're selling a fry's.
42:50
I think you touched on something really important here and, and that's
42:53
in auction work and catalog writing.
42:55
What kind of paperwork does this car have?
42:57
Is it a Carfax that only picks up history, uh, starting in the, in the
43:01
late nineties or early two thousands?
43:03
And the car's 40 years old.
43:04
You see a lot of things.
43:05
But like the classic K book is awesome.
43:07
It makes my job easier.
43:09
FIA paperwork, if it's a, a race car or homologated car.
43:12
But I've also seen, there was a Chaparral mark, one they made, two of them.
43:17
I might might have made more, I'm not sure.
43:19
But it's the one car that's not in the, uh, Midland, Texas, uh,
43:23
oil museum, Jim Hall's place.
43:25
It's the only one I think that's out in the wild somewhere.
43:27
And, uh.
43:28
That car had an amazing amount of paperwork, and it was extremely
43:31
confusing, but when you get into it, there were things that were known in the
43:35
pre-internet era, and there were things that were believed to be true because
43:39
someone saw a car like it somewhere.
43:41
It turns out they didn't have them separated out properly,
43:44
and histories get confused.
43:45
So I actually had to take original shipping documents, copies of those,
43:49
and the car went through several forms throughout its lifetime until it was
43:53
restored as faithfully as possible.
43:55
It was a lister, excuse me, it was a Lister Chevrolet.
43:57
Okay.
43:57
Sorry.
43:58
It was something from that period though.
44:00
And the point was there was a, a mass of paperwork and then
44:04
there were letters based on what someone truly, honestly believed.
44:07
They weren't fabricating anything.
44:09
It was just.
44:09
This is in the eighties vintage race cars were starting to be
44:12
appreciated and collected and sold, and then it really became
44:16
important to get the story straight.
44:17
And so there was quite a lengthy process to get through it all.
44:21
So despite the volume of paperwork, that was just the beginning.
44:24
That was like put a banker's box in front of you and then you go through that
44:27
for two weeks and try not to go crazy.
44:29
Then there's other things that are far more cut and dry.
44:31
There's, you know, the.
44:32
Manufacturer statement of origin, like Alpha Romeo say, or Maserati.
44:36
There's, uh, copies of factory documents, so you know exactly
44:39
how that thing left the factory.
44:40
It's, it's funny because sometimes there's a massive paperwork or
44:43
massive documentation that is less of a help than you would think.
44:47
And then there's others that are very much more direct.
44:49
And you've seen that too, probably.
44:50
Oh, yeah.
44:50
And Don, you've seen that too.
44:52
I mean, and you know, as a writer there's more research, the more documents you
44:55
have, but that's always one of the biggest things is how well is the car documented?
44:59
You know?
44:59
Is anybody still with us that I've interviewed people like.
45:01
There was a All American Racers, IndyCar, about seven or eight years ago that I
45:05
had to do a writeup for, for an auction, and I was able to call Dan Gurney's all
45:09
American racers when he was still alive.
45:11
His administrative assistant, Kathy was right there and she said, oh
45:14
yeah, yeah, I'll just go upstairs.
45:16
I know where the box is, where the paperwork is for it.
45:18
And she was able to like that.
45:20
And they did that once though.
45:21
And then after that it was kind of like a bit more reluctance to do it.
45:24
I don't know why, but it just created work.
45:26
She was willing to do it.
45:28
God bless her.
45:28
I mean, it was funny and she gave me like the original invoice to
45:31
whoever it was that raced the car.
45:33
It was bang, bang, bang that this is it.
45:35
Here's who did any, any work to it and you know, and it didn't
45:39
get destroyed in back in the day.
45:40
So yeah, there's a couple of 'em.
45:42
We have a gentleman that we're all good friends with.
45:43
He has the online database, storage of documents for your classic car,
45:47
digitize, everything like that, that way, and then it can transfer over
45:50
and how it's encrypted or whatever.
45:51
You're talking about Julio at the motor chain?
45:53
Yes.
45:54
So he is probably on blockchain then with it?
45:55
Yeah, an immutable record.
45:57
Yeah.
45:57
I really think that's great because then to your point, oh, it's not lost.
46:01
There it is.
46:02
You know, it's an actual, tangible asset.
46:04
Absolutely.
46:05
I always like what he's doing with that.
46:07
I thought that it's fantastic and it lives on, I mean, the thing is.
46:10
You have the provenance locked in as much as it can be.
46:12
There it is.
46:13
And it can be accessed and not messed with after that.
46:16
Correct.
46:16
I think that's fabulous.
46:17
You always hear about technology's going to do this and do
46:20
that, and it's be worried.
46:21
That's a great use case for technology.
46:23
Yes.
46:23
Something like that.
46:24
And if it lends.
46:25
Strength to the authenticity of the documents and to the vehicle itself.
46:30
Well, that's a win-win.
46:31
Well, on that note, let's move into our final segment here and just
46:35
sort of talk about the services that you're providing, David.
46:38
And so you talked about putting these prospectuses together upon
46:42
request to do the proof of concept to show that the math works.
46:45
That's right.
46:45
To show that the algorithms work and all that kind of stuff.
46:47
So basically walk us through your business process, meaning somebody say,
46:51
Hey David, I listened to this podcast.
46:53
What's the process look like?
46:54
How much does it cost?
46:55
Are you doing this as a service?
46:57
Yeah, it would be done on a fee basis, a case by case basis on request.
47:01
I'm still working out what kind of pricing would be appropriate.
47:05
I don't wanna undercharge, I don't wanna overcharge, but it's, it's just
47:07
something I'm gonna have to like, get some feedback from people and
47:10
I have a sort of a target in mind.
47:12
So it's just pretty early stages here.
47:14
What I'm doing.
47:14
So David, after going through all this, what's the next
47:18
step for you and Motor Copia?
47:20
Well, the next step is to keep forging ahead.
47:22
Actually, it's kind of exciting.
47:23
I'm in the beginning of reaching out to lenders, insurers, leasing companies,
47:29
industry people, and alternative investment managers, family offices.
47:32
So that's the next step, reaching out, introducing myself, and urging people to
47:37
sign up for the Motor Copia newsletter.
47:39
I've worked really hard on the subject matter, and that's my expertise.
47:43
The online marketing is something that I have to work on and something
47:47
that I need to do to roll things out better, but there's nothing like a
47:50
good old fashioned phone call or email.
47:52
So that's the next step is just basically contacting people and urging them to
47:56
sign up or gimme permission to sign them up for the Moto Copia newsletter.
48:00
Take a look at my reports.
48:01
I'm moving to a, uh, paid model, but again, I'm working on the pricing
48:05
and the levels, but I want people to see it and talk to me and if there's,
48:09
you know, suggestions or ideas about things that can be changed or updated.
48:13
Glad I got to get your feedback on the ones on the website because
48:16
I was afraid that I was going too far with the information.
48:21
Oh, no.
48:21
And I'm glad for that.
48:22
That makes me feel so much better because I don't wanna write a book.
48:25
On the other hand, you have to be able to.
48:27
Defend or justify or promote what you're saying, that there's
48:30
a thought process that goes on.
48:32
Well, no, it was great delving into it.
48:34
'cause you know when you start, you're going through your, you have your charts
48:37
and the numbers and what I thought was great 'cause then all of a sudden,
48:39
you know, I start seeing writing, I'm like gonna go into history and stuff
48:41
like that, which I really don't need.
48:42
But that was just a quick little blurb.
48:44
Like a paragraph?
48:45
Yeah.
48:45
Maybe I go Perfect.
48:46
Because I want the numbers and everything like that.
48:47
I know the history of the car, I know all this stuff, da da da.
48:50
For sure.
48:50
What I wanna see is, okay, what's this thing been doing previous?
48:53
That's why I, I thought it was fantastic.
48:55
'cause it it given you what you want and it's not giving you
48:58
what you don't need and want.
48:59
It's like, Hey, this is why came.
49:00
Yeah.
49:00
This is what I'm supposed to be getting out of this.
49:02
You have it set up great in regards to how everything's laid out.
49:05
Well, thank you.
49:06
I, I'm glad to get that feedback.
49:07
That's huge and, and me as a writer, I mean, I, when I'm not restricted to a
49:12
word character and page count, we can all probably go right to town on it.
49:16
But is that what someone needs or wants?
49:18
And, and that's the other side of it.
49:19
You want some information to take action or decide that you're already in a good
49:23
place holding or considering buying the best example of a car that you want.
49:28
My whole thing is, while this is numbers driven and data driven,
49:31
it's passion driven at the root.
49:33
What I'm doing, and it's a different approach to what I've been doing.
49:37
So it's, it's actually pretty refreshing.
49:39
I'm trying to get down to a, a reasonable editorial schedule where I'm putting
49:42
out a newsletter every week with four or five good articles in it that I hope
49:46
would give somebody either comfort or help them to say, yeah, you know what?
49:51
I do need to start considering the next set of options.
49:54
Yeah, the market's good or the market's stable.
49:56
Yeah, it's been a great fit and I, and I'm hoping it's something that's
49:59
unique enough that my target audience will appreciate it or get proper
50:04
information from, for their own life.
50:06
I was just thinking I could do another content site.
50:08
I could look at doing buyer's guides or I could do some price, uh,
50:12
explorations and things like that.
50:13
And then I. Let's look at the market.
50:15
The first thing was the, uh, motor copia market pulse index that I set up,
50:19
and it's, it's kinda like a fear and greed kind of index just to tell you
50:23
if the market is cold, medium, or hot.
50:25
It's kinda like Goldilocks and the three Bears give you an idea
50:28
of what last week's market action was like and is the market stable?
50:31
Our, our dealers filling their, their showrooms still as aggressively as before.
50:36
Is there good sale activity?
50:39
Is there a where the sell through is good at the auctions of last week?
50:42
Things like that.
50:43
So, uh, just kind of a bit of a reading between the lines for people too.
50:47
Well, David, we've reached that part of the episode where I'd like to invite
50:50
our guests to share any shout outs, promotions, thank yous, or anything
50:53
else we haven't covered thus far.
50:54
Two things, if anybody wants to, I have a special report on the collector car
50:58
market in 2025, and my forecast through the end of this year, through the end of
51:04
the fourth quarter, it's a PDF download.
51:06
I'd be happy to send that out to any of your listeners.
51:09
Would like it.
51:09
They reach out to me at admin@motorcopia.com and just let me know
51:14
that they'd like a copy of that report.
51:16
I will send the PDF over to them and hopefully start a relationship
51:19
with that and add value to their, uh, car collecting or their world.
51:22
Secondly, and most importantly, I'd like to thank probably my best
51:26
friend in the field who's been my biggest supporter since I've been
51:29
independent as a writer in 2012.
51:31
And that's Cindy Mele of, uh, car pr USA.
51:34
She is probably the og, the original gangster of.
51:37
Collector, car promotion and public relations.
51:41
And if you have a worthy event, product or service in the collector car market
51:46
or collector car field, I urge you wholeheartedly to reach out to Cindy
51:49
at CAR PR USA and you'll get the best support possible to get the word out.
51:53
Motor Copia is a digital platform and publication founded by automotive
51:57
writer and auction expert David Naan.
52:00
It caters to collector cars, enthusiasts, investors, dealers, and anyone interested
52:05
in the market dynamics of classic, exotic and special interest vehicles.
52:09
The focus isn't just on car culture, it's driven by data.
52:13
Motor Copia offers tools, analysis, and reports to help people make informed
52:18
decisions about buying, selling, holding, or investing in collector cars.
52:23
And David, I can't thank you enough for coming on Break Fix and sharing your story
52:26
with us and educating us on data-driven decision making when it comes to collector
52:32
car buying, selling, and holding.
52:35
It's obvious in the way you talk, your passion, your expertise, all
52:39
of it is there, and I wish you the best of luck on your latest endeavor
52:42
and we will see where this goes.
52:44
Maybe the next 30, 60, 90, 12 months from now.
52:47
Right?
52:47
There you go.
52:48
Yeah, as you say on the website.
52:49
So thank you for doing this.
52:50
Thanks very much for having me, guys, and it's been a pleasure.
52:53
Appreciate it.
52:54
Yeah.
52:54
Good to meet you, David.
52:55
Thank you.
52:55
Thanks again to Don and William as well.
52:57
Thanks for having me.
52:58
All the best.
52:58
You too.
53:04
Since 2007, garage Style Magazine has been the definitive source for car collectors
53:09
continually delivering information about Automobilia Petroliana events and more.
53:15
To learn more about the annual publication and its new website, be
53:19
sure to follow them on social media at Garage Style Magazine or log onto
53:25
www.garagestylemagazine.com because after all, what doesn't belong in your garage.
53:34
For everything from Ferrari and Porsche, Lamborghini and Konig seg,
53:37
visit exotic car marketplace.com.
53:40
If you're into anything with wheels and a motor, log onto to the Motoring
53:43
Podcast network and check out our family of podcasts@motoringpodcast.net.
53:48
This is the place to find your favorite news show.
53:51
Next up a shout out to David Beatie and his team at Slot Mods who custom
53:56
build some of the coolest slot car tracks in the world@slotmods.com.
54:00
Let your imagination run wild.
54:02
And finally, grand touring motorsports covering all aspects of auto
54:07
racing and motorsports history.
54:09
Check out their ezine@gtmotorsports.org.
54:12
All the links for our sponsors are in the description.
54:15
We hope you enjoyed another awesome episode of Break Fix Podcasts, brought
54:20
to you by Grand Tour Motorsports.
54:22
If you'd like to be a guest on the show or get involved, be sure
54:25
to follow us on all social media platforms at Grand Touring Motorsports.
54:29
And if you'd like to learn more about the content of this episode,
54:32
be sure to check out the follow on article@gtmotorsports.org.
54:37
We remain a commercial free and no annual fees organization through
54:41
our sponsors, but also through the generous support of our fans,
54:45
families, and friends through Patreon.
54:48
For as little as $2 and 50 cents a month, you can get access to more behind the
54:52
scenes action, additional pit stop, minisodes and other VIP goodies, as
54:57
well as keeping our team of creators.
54:59
Fed on their strict diet of fig Newton's, Gumby bears, and monster.
55:03
So consider signing up for Patreon today at www.patreon.com/gt motorsports.
55:10
And remember, without you, none of this would be possible.