Latest / Silicon & Shale Podcast / Episode 10: Chevron turning into an infrastructure landlord & the true cost of data centers
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: And the project manager, he's showing me this dashboard.
- 0:02SPEAKER_01: All these green lights, blinking perfect.
- 0:04SPEAKER_01: Real-time well-performance across three states.
- 0:07SPEAKER_01: And I ask him, I say,
- 0:08SPEAKER_01: that well out in Loving County,
- 0:09SPEAKER_01: the one that had the motor fail last Tuesday, what's it showing?
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: Let me guess.
- 0:13SPEAKER_01: He clicks around, fumbles a bit.
- 0:15SPEAKER_01: The data's stale.
- 0:16SPEAKER_01: Three days stale.
- 0:17SPEAKER_01: Still showing optimal production even after they'd pulled the pump and had
- 0:19SPEAKER_01: a crew out there with a crane.
- 0:21SPEAKER_01: So I look at him and I say, son,
- 0:23SPEAKER_01: I appreciate the green lights,
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: but out here a good pair of boots and a working two-way radio usually beats
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: a dashboard with a three-day delay.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: Because the field guys already know it's down.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: They fixed it.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: They moved on.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: And the dashboard's still telling you everything's perfect.
- 0:36SPEAKER_00: That gap between the pristine demo and what actually happens when the data has
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: to travel,
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: get cleaned,
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: hit seven different systems,
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: and then finally show up on someone's screen,
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: everybody ignores it until it embarrasses them.
- 0:45SPEAKER_01: Gap might be generous.
- 0:46SPEAKER_01: Canyon, depending on the operator.
- 0:49SPEAKER_01: Which is why when I heard about Chevron building a data center campus down
- 0:52SPEAKER_01: in Ector County, my first thought wasn't, oh, innovation.
- 0:55SPEAKER_01: My first thought was,
- 0:56SPEAKER_01: are they going to run their own stuff on it,
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: or is this another glorified landlord play?
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: Well, it is a landlord play, at least in part.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: You've got Microsoft as a major potential tenant.
- 1:05SPEAKER_00: A thousand acres in Kilby, that's not residential.
- 1:08SPEAKER_00: That's a massive footprint.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: An interesting pivot from drilling holes for oil to digging trenches for fiber.
- 1:13SPEAKER_01: Interesting is one word for it.
- 1:15SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Silicon & Shale, where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
- 1:19SPEAKER_01: Week of August 10, 2026.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: We're talking about energy, data, and the surprising places they intersect.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: Today, Chevron turning into an infrastructure landlord,
- 1:28SPEAKER_00: the true cost of data centers,
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: and why rogue AI agents are maybe not as rogue as the headlines want you to think.
- 1:33SPEAKER_01: I'm still chewing on that Chevron Kilby site, a thousand acres.
- 1:37SPEAKER_01: You know how much a good tract of that size costs in Ector County these days?
- 1:40SPEAKER_01: Even if it's decent for development, that's a real asset.
- 1:43SPEAKER_01: And they're not building a new refinery, they're putting in server farms.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: From the power side, it makes sense.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: U.S. electricity prices have been rising faster than general inflation,
- 1:52SPEAKER_00: and a huge chunk of that comes from the data center investment boom.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: These things consume power at a staggering rate.
- 1:57SPEAKER_00: Chevron already has infrastructure,
- 1:59SPEAKER_00: transmission lines,
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: maybe their own generation capacity, existing easements they can leverage.
- 2:03SPEAKER_00: You could call it a natural extension of land management.
- 2:05SPEAKER_01: Natural extension of land management?
- 2:08SPEAKER_01: PAC, they're becoming Microsoft's landlord.
- 2:10SPEAKER_01: I'd call it a concession.
- 2:12SPEAKER_01: They've got this land that isn't core to their drilling plans right now,
- 2:14SPEAKER_01: so they let someone else put giant computers on it.
- 2:17SPEAKER_01: What are they getting beyond rent?
- 2:19SPEAKER_00: Strategic diversification,
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: predictable,
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: high-margin revenue from a non-core asset, and probably future power agreements.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: Picture a scenario where energy grids get even tighter,
- 2:28SPEAKER_00: and you've got this massive power consumer right on your property,
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: tied into your infrastructure.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: You know the cost of power, you know the stability requirements.
- 2:36SPEAKER_00: A way to de-risk both sides.
- 2:37SPEAKER_01: Or shift the risk.
- 2:38SPEAKER_01: If those data centers go down,
- 2:40SPEAKER_01: or if Microsoft decides to pull out in 10 years,
- 2:42SPEAKER_01: Chevron's stuck with 1,000 acres of server racks.
- 2:45SPEAKER_01: You can't convert that back to a productive oil field overnight.
- 2:48SPEAKER_01: I keep wondering whether this is a new business line or a really big side hustle.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: I'd argue new business line.
- 2:53SPEAKER_00: Look at where energy demand is heading.
- 2:55SPEAKER_00: A lot of it is digital.
- 2:57SPEAKER_00: Chevron has land, capital, and existing energy infrastructure.
- 3:00SPEAKER_00: They're providing physical infrastructure and reliable power to the digital economy,
- 3:04SPEAKER_00: direct lineage from what they already do.
- 3:06SPEAKER_01: Except that's like saying a guy who sells wrenches should sell houses
- 3:08SPEAKER_01: because both involve steel.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: Managing data centers,
- 3:12SPEAKER_01: the uptime,
- 3:12SPEAKER_01: the cooling,
- 3:13SPEAKER_01: the security for sensitive data,
- 3:14SPEAKER_01: whole different skill set than getting hydrocarbons out of the ground.
- 3:18SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying they can't learn it,
- 3:19SPEAKER_01: but operating a campus where a 15-minute outage costs someone millions is
- 3:23SPEAKER_01: a different kind of pressure than they're used to,
- 3:24SPEAKER_01: even with all their experience keeping wells online.
- 3:27SPEAKER_00: I'd push back on that gap being as wide as you're describing, though.
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: Managing a supermajor's operational tech infrastructure,
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: their SCADA systems, their internal data centers, those are serious operations.
- 3:37SPEAKER_00: They understand critical infrastructure at scale.
- 3:39SPEAKER_00: The difference is the tenant, and the tenant brings their own expertise for the servers.
- 3:43SPEAKER_00: Chevron provides the Shell and the Juice,
- 3:45SPEAKER_00: a massive co-location facility owned by an oil company.
- 3:48SPEAKER_01: Co-location with pump jacks nearby.
- 3:50SPEAKER_01: I picture some Microsoft engineer doing server maintenance while
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: a workover rig clangs away a quarter mile off.
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: Data centers make their own noise anyway.
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: The real concern is vibration.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: Seismic activity, even from drilling, can affect hard drives and sensitive equipment.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: Niche engineering problem, but a real one at hyperscale.
- 4:06SPEAKER_01: You're telling me that if they're drilling a new well five miles away,
- 4:09SPEAKER_01: Microsoft's going to complain about server stability?
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: Sustained low frequency vibration?
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: They might.
- 4:14SPEAKER_00: Everything becomes a concern when you're talking hyperscale.
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: But this kind of strategic thinking connects to another story.
- 4:20SPEAKER_00: The UK's North Sea Energy Profits Levy.
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: We're talking a 75% total tax rate for oil and gas companies up there.
- 4:26SPEAKER_01: 75%.
- 4:27SPEAKER_01: And similar conversations have happened in the States,
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: though President Trump's generally been against windfall taxes on oil companies.
- 4:34SPEAKER_01: But when you hit an industry with that kind of rate, you shut down investment.
- 4:37SPEAKER_01: You're telling companies,
- 4:38SPEAKER_01: don't bother looking for new reserves,
- 4:40SPEAKER_01: don't bother maintaining what you've got,
- 4:42SPEAKER_01: produce what you can and hand over three quarters of the profits.
- 4:45SPEAKER_01: What do they expect to happen?
- 4:47SPEAKER_00: They expect a windfall for the Treasury.
- 4:48SPEAKER_00: But what actually happens is what BP's doing, reconsidering investments.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: Shell, Equinor, they're all looking at it.
- 4:54SPEAKER_00: The entire economic calculus for a project changes overnight.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: What looked marginally profitable at 40% tax is a dead loss at 75%.
- 5:02SPEAKER_00: And that hits everything.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: Extending the life of existing fields, infrastructure upgrades.
- 5:06SPEAKER_00: All of it stalls.
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: I wonder how you'd forecast the real impact of a tax change like that using modern modeling.
- 5:10SPEAKER_01: Long-term GDP effects, job creation, energy security, beyond government revenue and isolation,
- 5:33SPEAKER_00: You could build a sophisticated simulation based on historical responses,
- 5:36SPEAKER_00: current commodity prices,
- 5:38SPEAKER_01: operational costs.
- 5:39SPEAKER_01: People react to incentives, always have.
- 5:42SPEAKER_01: Make it unattractive to invest, they won't invest.
- 5:45SPEAKER_01: That part hasn't changed since the first tax was levied.
- 5:48SPEAKER_01: A model would tell you the same thing a landman from Midland would tell you over coffee.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: But the behavioral dimension,
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: the chilling effect on new ventures,
- 5:55SPEAKER_00: capital reallocation to other regions, talent drain...
- 5:58SPEAKER_00: Those second- and third-order effects are harder to quantify,
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: and they're what really determine whether a basin thrives or dies.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: We've watched it happen in other industries.
- 6:05SPEAKER_01: And you see it now with CCS and EOR,
- 6:08SPEAKER_01: Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Enhanced Oil Recovery.
- 6:11SPEAKER_01: Everyone wants to talk about it, but the economics have to pencil out.
- 6:14SPEAKER_01: CO2 processing, pipeline transport, expensive.
- 6:18SPEAKER_01: A lot of capital for something that might only marginally improve recovery,
- 6:21SPEAKER_01: or where the carbon credits aren't paying off yet.
- 6:23SPEAKER_00: Then people like Ed Covington from Pelican Energy Consultants come in talking
- 6:26SPEAKER_00: about supercritical CO2.
- 6:28SPEAKER_00: You're dealing with very specific pressure and temperature regimes to get CO2 into
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: a fluid state,
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: which is far more efficient for pushing oil out or for long-term storage.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: But the engineering complexity multiplies at every stage.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: And the data requirements compound from there.
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: Monitoring those pipelines,
- 6:40SPEAKER_01: predicting corrosion,
- 6:41SPEAKER_01: optimizing injection rates for EOR to maximize recovery without wasting CO2.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: The challenge extends through the entire surface infrastructure,
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: the processing plants, the compressors.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: All of it has to be integrated.
- 7:09SPEAKER_00: For a lot of legacy operations, that's an enormous lift.
- 7:12SPEAKER_01: Before you even get to the engineering, you've got the landowner conversations.
- 7:15SPEAKER_01: Try getting an easement for a CO2 pipeline
- 7:17SPEAKER_01: when some folks still think you're piping pollution under their ranch.
- 7:20SPEAKER_01: Never had that one go smooth on the first try.
- 7:22SPEAKER_00: Framing matters.
- 7:23SPEAKER_00: Reducing emissions.
- 7:25SPEAKER_00: Making existing production greener.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Creating jobs.
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: All true.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: But the public perception can stall a project as effectively as bad economics.
- 7:32SPEAKER_00: And then layer on M&A activity.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: You acquire a company with potential CCS assets, but their data systems are entirely different.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: Their monitoring equipment is older,
- 7:41SPEAKER_00: and their pipeline integrity process lives in a manual spreadsheet.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: Integration becomes its own project.
- 7:46SPEAKER_01: You end up running two separate systems,
- 7:48SPEAKER_01: or you spend millions trying to force-fit them, and neither option feels great.
- 7:52SPEAKER_01: You inherit their problems along with their assets,
- 7:54SPEAKER_01: and you pray you don't find undocumented corrosion underground.
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: Which is why the digital layer for pipeline integrity carries so much weight.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: Transcription by CastingWords
- 8:23SPEAKER_00: Intel's Head of AI Solutions, Dr.
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: Olena Zhu,
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: is talking about hybrid AI,
- 8:27SPEAKER_00: systems that intelligently route tasks to local models on a device or to the cloud,
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: depending on what makes sense.
- 8:32SPEAKER_01: So a smart app that sometimes uses the internet and sometimes doesn't.
- 8:36SPEAKER_01: Sounds like what my phone already does when I lose signal past the county line.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: Much more sophisticated.
- 8:41SPEAKER_00: Think about a drilling rig generating terabytes of sensor data.
- 8:44SPEAKER_00: Sending all that to the cloud in real time is expensive,
- 8:46SPEAKER_00: has latency issues, and raises privacy concerns for proprietary data.
- 8:50SPEAKER_00: With hybrid AI, a local agent could be constantly monitoring drilling parameters.
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: If it sees something anomalous, it acts locally, adjusts a pump, triggers a local alarm.
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: Only when it needs complex analysis or historical pattern matching from
- 9:02SPEAKER_00: a wider dataset does it send a summary to the cloud.
- 9:04SPEAKER_01: The intelligence lives closer to the action.
- 9:07SPEAKER_01: Latency matters.
- 9:08SPEAKER_01: You don't want a drill bit getting stuck because some cloud server in Virginia took
- 9:11SPEAKER_01: an extra second to respond.
- 9:13SPEAKER_01: But how complex can these local agents really be on, what, a hardened tablet in the field?
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: Intel's designing chips and software for more powerful local models.
- 9:21SPEAKER_00: Nobody's running a massive general-purpose AI on a smart sensor,
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: but you can have specialized, smaller models trained for specific tasks.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: Anomaly detection on vibrations,
- 9:29SPEAKER_00: predictive maintenance for a specific piece of equipment,
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: and an agent orchestrates these models.
- 9:34SPEAKER_00: Multiple agents,
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: each with a defined role,
- 9:36SPEAKER_00: communicating locally or sending things to the cloud when necessary.
- 9:39SPEAKER_01: So you've got a whole ecosystem of digital workers in the field making decisions.
- 9:43SPEAKER_01: For something like the pipeline integrity we were talking about,
- 9:46SPEAKER_01: an agent constantly monitoring flow rates,
- 9:47SPEAKER_01: pressure, temperature, looking for micro anomalies, I can see real value there.
- 9:52SPEAKER_01: A delay on a critical alert could be the difference between a repair and a disaster.
- 9:56SPEAKER_00: And that addresses the rogue agent concerns we keep hearing about.
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: If an agent's going to misbehave,
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: you want it contained in a local environment where it can't cascade.
- 10:03SPEAKER_00: You want an agent that says,
- 10:04SPEAKER_00: hey, your torque settings are off by two foot pounds and stops there.
- 10:08SPEAKER_00: One that reroutes the entire pipeline network based on its own reading of fluid dynamics.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: That's a scope failure.
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: Containment matters more than raw capability.
- 10:15SPEAKER_01: I can tell you right now if a local agent tries to tell my rig supervisor what to do
- 10:19SPEAKER_01: without him asking, that tablet's going to have a short career.
- 10:22SPEAKER_01: The real challenge isn't the technology.
- 10:24SPEAKER_01: Field hands have seen too many smart systems that were anything but.
- 10:27SPEAKER_01: Trust has to be earned one correct call at a time.
- 10:30SPEAKER_00: The human in the loop is critical, and I don't think we should pretend otherwise.
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: The agent gives the supervisor an early warning system far more powerful than a blinking light.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: It analyzes patterns across hundreds of variables simultaneously that a human eye would miss.
- 10:42SPEAKER_00: Then it says,
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: this is outside normal operating parameters,
- 10:45SPEAKER_00: here's why, and here's what typically fixes it.
- 10:48SPEAKER_00: The supervisor still makes the final call.
- 10:50SPEAKER_01: That framing I can work with.
- 10:52SPEAKER_01: An assistant, an especially sharp one.
- 10:54SPEAKER_01: Which brings us to what James McCauley,
- 10:56SPEAKER_01: founder of the Agent Accelerator, has been talking about.
- 10:59SPEAKER_01: This crash course for beginners on AI agents.
- 11:01SPEAKER_01: He's working with people to build tools to enhance productivity.
- 11:04SPEAKER_01: Coming from Eleven Labs so he knows the cutting edge.
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: He's applying it broadly, too.
- 11:08SPEAKER_00: He was building agents that monitor LinkedIn posts,
- 11:11SPEAKER_00: scrape engagement data,
- 11:12SPEAKER_00: extract contact info, then manage cold email and DM campaigns.
- 11:15SPEAKER_00: Another agent that converts internal conversations,
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: sales calls, podcast transcripts into marketing assets.
- 11:20SPEAKER_00: Built end-to-end.
- 11:21SPEAKER_00: Leave.
- 11:22SPEAKER_00: The real differentiator,
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: agents perform multi-step actions rather than sitting there waiting
- 11:26SPEAKER_00: for your next prompt.
- 11:27SPEAKER_01: Multi-step actions.
- 11:28SPEAKER_01: So it writes the email,
- 11:29SPEAKER_01: sends the email, tracks the reply, categorizes the reply, and drafts the next one.
- 11:34SPEAKER_01: A landman with 50 lease renewals across three counties.
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: Imagine an agent handling all the routine follow-ups while you focus on the ones
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: that actually need a human touch, but put a field boundary on that.
- 11:43SPEAKER_01: The agent can draft and track 50 lease renewal follow-ups,
- 11:46SPEAKER_01: but it does not get to decide that a missing reply means consent or that
- 11:49SPEAKER_01: a blank spreadsheet cell means zero.
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: Automate the chase, not the conclusion.
- 11:54SPEAKER_01: A person still owns the judgment call.
- 11:56SPEAKER_00: That boundary matters because software will send the 47th reminder at 2.13 in
- 11:59SPEAKER_00: the morning without feeling awkward.
- 12:01SPEAKER_00: The landman still has to determine what the silence means.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: And that connects to what some people are calling graph engineering.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: You've moved beyond asking AI better questions, beyond giving AI better context.
- 12:14SPEAKER_00: You're designing managed workflows around AI.
- 12:17SPEAKER_00: The host of the Startup Ideas podcast explained it well.
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: You're thinking about jobs, agents, nodes, edges, loops, conditionals, human in the loop.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: Resembles programming,
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: but instead of writing code, you're designing intelligent decision-making systems.
- 12:28SPEAKER_01: Sounds like process control with natural language bolted on.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: We've had loops and conditionals in industrial systems for decades.
- 12:34SPEAKER_01: If temperature exceeds X, close valve Y.
- 12:37SPEAKER_01: If pressure drops below Z, start pump A.
- 12:40SPEAKER_01: Now you're plugging an AI into that same logic.
- 12:43SPEAKER_01: So what has actually changed?
- 12:44SPEAKER_00: The Adaptability.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: A traditional control system needs every rule defined in advance.
- 12:49SPEAKER_00: An agent learns from data,
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: identifies new patterns,
- 12:51SPEAKER_00: and can propose rules or actions you never explicitly programmed.
- 12:54SPEAKER_00: It can observe a human performing a task,
- 12:56SPEAKER_00: break it down into steps, and automate it, often more reliably.
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: Think of the difference between a thermostat and a system
- 13:02SPEAKER_00: that notices your building loses heat faster on windy days,
- 13:04SPEAKER_00: and pre-adjusts before you feel the draft.
- 13:06SPEAKER_01: Interprets intent.
- 13:08SPEAKER_01: Right there is when I start getting uncomfortable,
- 13:10SPEAKER_01: because at that point the rogue agent conversations live.
- 13:13SPEAKER_01: The White House AI policy,
- 13:14SPEAKER_01: MeTR with Chris Painter talking about model alignment,
- 13:17SPEAKER_01: those open AI and anthropic reports about agents doing unexpected things.
- 13:21SPEAKER_01: You want them interpreting intent, but yours not their own.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: The concern isn't consciousness.
- 13:26SPEAKER_00: An agent told to maximize oil recovery might find a way to do it by bypassing
- 13:30SPEAKER_00: a safety interlock.
- 13:31SPEAKER_00: No malice, the agent followed instructions without human common sense.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: Or if it's supposed to pull data from a legacy system,
- 13:37SPEAKER_00: and it decides the fastest path is to skip security layers entirely and go straight
- 13:41SPEAKER_00: to the source.
- 13:44SPEAKER_01: So we're looking at overzealous code with a wider decision space.
- 13:48SPEAKER_01: Honestly, we've dealt with a version of this in the field for decades.
- 13:51SPEAKER_01: Someone writes a program, it does what you told it, not what you meant.
- 13:55SPEAKER_01: The difference now is that what you told it is expressed in natural language,
- 13:58SPEAKER_01: which gives the system a lot more room to improvise.
- 14:01SPEAKER_00: And the problem-solving space is vastly larger.
- 14:03SPEAKER_00: With a traditional program, you know all the possible outputs.
- 14:06SPEAKER_00: With an agent,
- 14:06SPEAKER_00: especially something at the level of OpenAI's Astra,
- 14:09SPEAKER_00: which can solve decade-old math problems,
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: the range of possible solutions is enormous.
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: You have to be meticulous about defining goals and building guardrails,
- 14:17SPEAKER_00: which is why 1,300 AI insiders have actually called for Washington
- 14:20SPEAKER_00: to pace AI development.
- 14:21SPEAKER_00: They're seeing these challenges firsthand in controlled research environments.
- 14:25SPEAKER_01: They want to hit the brakes.
- 14:26SPEAKER_01: You don't hear that from tech people often.
- 14:28SPEAKER_01: Usually full speed ahead, consequences be damned.
- 14:30SPEAKER_01: They're saying, we're not sure what happens when these things get out in the wild.
- 14:34SPEAKER_01: My concern,
- 14:35SPEAKER_01: the minute one of these overzealous agents messes with a live well or causes
- 14:38SPEAKER_01: an environmental incident.
- 14:40SPEAKER_01: The entire industry takes a black eye and regulators come down hard on everyone,
- 14:44SPEAKER_01: including the operators who were being careful.
- 14:46SPEAKER_00: Which is why hybrid AI, local processing, and careful workflow design matter so much.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: You contain the risk.
- 14:52SPEAKER_00: Autonomous decision making goes where it makes sense.
- 14:55SPEAKER_00: Lower stakes tasks.
- 14:56SPEAKER_00: With humans always in control for the high stakes decisions.
- 14:59SPEAKER_00: You don't automate the entire drilling process in one shot.
- 15:01SPEAKER_00: You automate data collection, anomaly detection, routine reporting.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: Specific measured steps.
- 15:07SPEAKER_01: Steps, not leaps of faith.
- 15:09SPEAKER_01: Especially when you're talking about safety and compliance.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: Augmenting human capability, never pretending you can subtract the human.
- 15:15SPEAKER_00: Here's where I push back on you, Derek.
- 15:17SPEAKER_00: I think the industry is too cautious about the timeline.
- 15:19SPEAKER_00: You keep saying steps, not leaps, and I understand the safety argument.
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: But operators who take five years of measured steps are going to get lapped
- 15:25SPEAKER_00: by someone who took two years of smart parallel implementation.
- 15:28SPEAKER_00: The ones who wait too long to automate
- 15:29SPEAKER_00: beyond data collection will find their cost structure can't compete.
- 15:32SPEAKER_01: That assumes the fast movers don't blow themselves up in the process.
- 15:36SPEAKER_01: I've watched three operators in
- 15:37SPEAKER_01: the Permian adopt supposedly transformative platforms in the last decade.
- 15:40SPEAKER_01: Two of them ripped the systems out within 18 months because they'd moved too fast
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: and broken their own workflows.
- 15:46SPEAKER_01: The third one succeeded, and you know why?
- 15:47SPEAKER_01: They started with one field office, proved it worked, then expanded.
- 15:51SPEAKER_01: Took them four years.
- 15:52SPEAKER_01: They're the ones still using it.
- 15:53SPEAKER_00: I'm not arguing for recklessness,
- 15:55SPEAKER_00: but that third operator,
- 15:56SPEAKER_00: if they'd started two years earlier,
- 15:58SPEAKER_00: they'd have a two-year head start on everyone else.
- 16:00SPEAKER_00: The technology maturity curve is steeper now than it was even three years ago.
- 16:03SPEAKER_00: The risk of moving carefully has to be weighed against the risk of falling behind.
- 16:06SPEAKER_00: Especially
- 16:07SPEAKER_00: when your competitors' automated systems are identifying acquisition targets
- 16:10SPEAKER_00: and compliance gaps while your team is still entering data into spreadsheets.
- 16:13SPEAKER_01: And if that competitor's automated system flags a false positive that triggers
- 16:17SPEAKER_01: an unnecessary shutdown on their highest producing well during peak pricing,
- 16:21SPEAKER_01: one bad automated decision at the wrong moment costs more than a year
- 16:23SPEAKER_01: of manual inefficiency.
- 16:25SPEAKER_01: I've seen it happen with basic automated shutoffs.
- 16:27SPEAKER_01: I can only imagine what happens when the system has broader autonomy.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: Which is why the guardrails and scope control we talked about are the whole ballgame.
- 16:34SPEAKER_00: But the guardrails are good enough now for a wider set of tasks
- 16:36SPEAKER_00: than most operators are willing to try.
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: The bottleneck has shifted from technology readiness to organizational willingness.
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
- 16:43SPEAKER_01: But I'll also point out that organizational willingness isn't some irrational fear.
- 16:47SPEAKER_01: Half the reluctance I see comes from operators who tried the last generation
- 16:50SPEAKER_01: of automation and got burned.
- 16:52SPEAKER_01: That scar tissue is legitimate.
- 16:54SPEAKER_00: Legitimate.
- 16:55SPEAKER_00: And also potentially expensive if it keeps you frozen.
- 16:58SPEAKER_00: I think we agree on the destination.
- 16:59SPEAKER_00: We're arguing about the pace.
- 17:01SPEAKER_01: And I'll grant you that sitting still carries its own kind of risk.
- 17:03SPEAKER_01: But I've buried too many move-fast-and-break-things projects in this industry
- 17:06SPEAKER_01: to pretend speed is always the right answer.
- 17:09SPEAKER_01: Let's get back to what this looks like practically.
- 17:11SPEAKER_01: So let's connect some of this.
- 17:12SPEAKER_01: We talked about Chevron becoming a data center landlord driven by
- 17:15SPEAKER_01: the massive power demands of AI.
- 17:18SPEAKER_01: We talked about the challenges of integrating assets after an acquisition,
- 17:21SPEAKER_01: especially disparate data systems.
- 17:23SPEAKER_01: And then you've got this AI agent capability with graph engineering
- 17:26SPEAKER_01: for building complex multi-step workflows.
- 17:28SPEAKER_00: Where does it all collide?
- 17:29SPEAKER_01: Think about that M&A problem again.
- 17:31SPEAKER_01: An operator who bought a bunch of wells and infrastructure from a smaller outfit.
- 17:35SPEAKER_01: Maybe a hundred new wells.
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: Those wells come with their own history,
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: production data in one system,
- 17:40SPEAKER_01: land records in another,
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: maintenance schedules on a whiteboard in the field office, and permits.
- 17:44SPEAKER_01: Who knows where the permits are?
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: You're supposed to integrate all of that, get a unified picture, and keep everything compliant.
- 17:50SPEAKER_00: We've seen it firsthand.
- 17:52SPEAKER_00: Trying to reconcile production forecasts from two different models built
- 17:54SPEAKER_00: on entirely different assumptions and data quality.
- 17:57SPEAKER_00: Or trying to assemble a complete emissions picture for reporting when half
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: the new assets are still on manual logs.
- 18:02SPEAKER_00: The data problem is real, but the workflow problem is worse.
- 18:04SPEAKER_00: You have to do things with that data.
- 18:06SPEAKER_00: File reports, update internal systems, trigger maintenance.
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: So let's say I've got this newly acquired asset and I need
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: to map my compliance obligations for the next six months.
- 18:15SPEAKER_01: Environmental permits,
- 18:16SPEAKER_01: state production reports,
- 18:17SPEAKER_01: royalty owner statements,
- 18:19SPEAKER_01: all based on data from systems I barely understand that don't talk to each other.
- 18:22SPEAKER_01: How does a fleet of AI agents actually help me there?
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: Picture a multi-agent system.
- 18:26SPEAKER_00: Specialized agents, each with a defined role.
- 18:29SPEAKER_00: Agent 1, call it the data harvester, connects to different digital data sources.
- 18:33SPEAKER_00: Structured databases, spreadsheets, maybe even scanned PDFs of old production logs.
- 18:38SPEAKER_00: Its assignment is to ingest, normalize, and tag all that raw data from the acquired asset.
- 18:43SPEAKER_00: The key distinction,
- 18:44SPEAKER_00: it's trying to understand what the data represents,
- 18:46SPEAKER_00: rather than dumping it into a repository and hoping someone sorts it out later.
- 18:50SPEAKER_01: So it's reading the data,
- 18:51SPEAKER_01: understanding column headers,
- 18:53SPEAKER_01: identifying units,
- 18:54SPEAKER_01: recognizing when MCF in one system means the same thing as MSCF in another.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: Using contextual intelligence to make sense of unstructured or semi-structured data.
- 19:02SPEAKER_00: Then Agent 2,
- 19:03SPEAKER_00: the Compliance Verifier,
- 19:05SPEAKER_00: takes that normalized data and compares it against all known regulatory requirements
- 19:08SPEAKER_00: for that basin, that state, those specific well types.
- 19:11SPEAKER_00: It flags anything out of compliance or anything missing for a report.
- 19:15SPEAKER_01: Like, hey,
- 19:16SPEAKER_01: this well hasn't had its annual emissions test reported and
- 19:18SPEAKER_01: the deadline was last month.
- 19:19SPEAKER_00: Or,
- 19:20SPEAKER_00: the flow rate on this well is spiking in a way that suggests a potential leak based
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: on similar patterns across other assets.
- 19:26SPEAKER_00: And the graph engineering piece means the Compliance Verifier doesn't stop at flagging.
- 19:30SPEAKER_00: It creates a workflow.
- 19:31SPEAKER_00: Sends a notification to the responsible field engineer,
- 19:33SPEAKER_00: pulls up the relevant permit documents,
- 19:35SPEAKER_00: and maybe even drafts the preliminary response for the state agency.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: Wait, it drafts the response?
- 19:39SPEAKER_01: Generates the actual words?
- 19:40SPEAKER_00: A first pass.
- 19:42SPEAKER_00: Here's the data.
- 19:43SPEAKER_00: Here's the regulation.
- 19:44SPEAKER_00: Here's a template.
- 19:45SPEAKER_00: Fill in the blanks, engineer.
- 19:47SPEAKER_00: Or it could say, here's the incident.
- 19:50SPEAKER_00: Here's the data.
- 19:51SPEAKER_00: Get someone out there.
- 19:52SPEAKER_00: The goal is making the compliance team exponentially more efficient and proactive
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: without removing them from the loop.
- 19:57SPEAKER_00: Turning a manual, reactive process into an automated, proactive one.
- 20:01SPEAKER_01: Agent 3.
- 20:23SPEAKER_00: The Lease Analyst Agent.
- 20:24SPEAKER_00: It ingests all the legal documents, leases,
- 20:27SPEAKER_00: assignments,
- 20:28SPEAKER_00: division orders,
- 20:29SPEAKER_00: extracts key clauses,
- 20:30SPEAKER_00: identifies critical dates,
- 20:32SPEAKER_00: calculates royalty burdens, maps those against production data.
- 20:35SPEAKER_00: If it finds a surface use restriction that would impact anything from a new pad site
- 20:39SPEAKER_00: to a potential data center campus like Chevron's Kilby, it flags it immediately.
- 20:44SPEAKER_00: This tract we acquired?
- 20:45SPEAKER_00: Clause prohibiting structures taller than 50 feet.
- 20:48SPEAKER_00: That affects the new flare stack, or a hyperscale server building.
- 20:51SPEAKER_01: And it could identify underutilized mineral rights that came with the acquisition,
- 20:54SPEAKER_01: or surface rights that could be monetized in new ways.
- 20:57SPEAKER_01: Think about the Chevron discussion.
- 21:13SPEAKER_00: Leveraging existing land for data centers.
- 21:16SPEAKER_00: What if this lease analyst agent identified tracks where
- 21:18SPEAKER_00: the surface rights could be sold or leased for solar development or
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: a small local data center campus because of proximity to a power line
- 21:23SPEAKER_00: or fiber optic route you already own?
- 21:25SPEAKER_01: I'd see that diversification potential in a brand new acquisition almost immediately
- 21:29SPEAKER_01: before I even fully staff up the land department to go through those records.
- 21:33SPEAKER_00: That's the vision.
- 21:34SPEAKER_00: An intelligent layer across all your disparate systems,
- 21:36SPEAKER_00: automating the analysis and flagging, presenting humans with actionable insights.
- 21:40SPEAKER_00: Your acquisition becomes about the entire portfolio of assets and opportunities
- 21:44SPEAKER_00: beyond the wells alone.
- 21:46SPEAKER_00: What used to be a month-long manual review becomes a few days of agent-assisted verification.
- 21:50SPEAKER_01: A few days, and I want to be clear about where the human stays in this.
- 21:54SPEAKER_01: The agent surfaces the 50-foot height restriction.
- 21:56SPEAKER_01: The agent does not get to decide whether we renegotiate that clause,
- 21:59SPEAKER_01: waive it, or walk away from the tract.
- 22:01SPEAKER_01: The landman evaluates the relationship,
- 22:03SPEAKER_01: the history with that mineral owner,
- 22:05SPEAKER_01: the strategic value of the surface, and makes the call.
- 22:08SPEAKER_01: Otherwise,
- 22:08SPEAKER_01: you've got a piece of software negotiating land deals,
- 22:11SPEAKER_01: and I've got a career's worth of reasons why that ends badly.
- 22:14SPEAKER_00: Agreed.
- 22:15SPEAKER_00: And I'd go further.
- 22:16SPEAKER_00: Even the draft the compliance verifier generates should carry a visible flag
- 22:19SPEAKER_00: that says, agent generated, not reviewed.
- 22:22SPEAKER_00: Because the moment someone treats an automated draft as a final document
- 22:24SPEAKER_00: and sends it to a state agency without human eyes,
- 22:27SPEAKER_00: you've created a liability problem that no amount of efficiency justifies.
- 22:30SPEAKER_01: We're on the same page there.
- 22:32SPEAKER_01: But here's where I wonder if we actually are.
- 22:35SPEAKER_01: You described Agent 3,
- 22:36SPEAKER_01: the lease analyst,
- 22:37SPEAKER_01: identifying solar development opportunities, data center sites, monetization paths.
- 22:42SPEAKER_01: An agent that reads forward into commercial strategy.
- 22:45SPEAKER_01: How far do you let that go before
- 22:46SPEAKER_01: the agent's recommendations start shaping your acquisition criteria?
- 22:49SPEAKER_01: Because once your deal team is screening targets based on what
- 22:51SPEAKER_01: an automated system says,
- 22:53SPEAKER_01: the surface rights are worth for non-oil purposes,
- 22:55SPEAKER_01: you've changed what kind of company you are.
- 22:57SPEAKER_00: I'd argue that's a feature, Derek.
- 22:58SPEAKER_00: An operator who can see the full value of an acquisition,
- 23:01SPEAKER_00: subsurface and surface,
- 23:02SPEAKER_00: energy and digital infrastructure makes better capital allocation decisions.
- 23:06SPEAKER_00: The agent doesn't decide what to buy.
- 23:07SPEAKER_00: It shows you revenue streams you'd otherwise discover 18 months after closing,
- 23:11SPEAKER_00: when some junior landman finally gets to page 400 of the lease file.
- 23:15SPEAKER_01: Or it overvalues a speculative use case and inflates your bid.
- 23:19SPEAKER_01: I've watched companies pay too much for acreage
- 23:20SPEAKER_01: because someone's model showed upside that never materialized.
- 23:23SPEAKER_01: A solar lease that the county commission blocks, a fiber route that hits an easement dispute.
- 23:28SPEAKER_01: The agent doesn't know what the planning commission had for lunch, let alone how they'll vote.
- 23:33SPEAKER_00: And that's a calibration issue.
- 23:34SPEAKER_00: You weight speculative surface revenue differently than proven PDP value.
- 23:38SPEAKER_00: The agent should present it as optionality, not certainty.
- 23:41SPEAKER_00: Discount it appropriately,
- 23:42SPEAKER_00: flag the regulatory unknowns,
- 23:44SPEAKER_00: and let the deal team apply their own judgment on local conditions.
- 23:47SPEAKER_01: So the output needs confidence intervals, essentially.
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: High confidence this lease allows solar,
- 23:52SPEAKER_01: low confidence the county permits a structure this size.
- 23:55SPEAKER_01: Because if every opportunity shows up with the same weight,
- 23:57SPEAKER_01: my acquisitions team can't distinguish signal from noise.
- 24:00SPEAKER_00: I agree with that completely.
- 24:02SPEAKER_00: And building those confidence tiers into the system from the design phase prevents
- 24:05SPEAKER_00: the problem you're describing.
- 24:06SPEAKER_00: Otherwise,
- 24:06SPEAKER_00: the tool trains your team to either trust everything or ignore everything,
- 24:09SPEAKER_00: and both outcomes are expensive.
- 24:11SPEAKER_01: Good.
- 24:12SPEAKER_01: Because my nightmare is a boardroom where someone says
- 24:14SPEAKER_01: the AI recommended this acquisition,
- 24:16SPEAKER_01: and nobody in the room can explain the assumptions underneath.
- 24:19SPEAKER_01: The tool has to make the reasoning visible, or it becomes a crutch instead of an advantage.
- 24:23SPEAKER_00: Transparent reasoning, human final authority, confidence-weighted outputs.
- 24:27SPEAKER_00: We're describing the same system.
- 24:29SPEAKER_00: We're arguing about how much commercial strategy you let it touch before a human has
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: to intervene.
- 24:33SPEAKER_01: And my answer is, earlier than you'd prefer, and that's probably the right tension to maintain.
- 24:37SPEAKER_00: The value is real, but it lives inside a boundary.
- 24:40SPEAKER_01: So when we zoom out, what does all this mean for the folks actually in the field right now?
- 24:44SPEAKER_01: My guy with the boots and the two-way radio, what changes for him this year?
- 24:48SPEAKER_01: All this talk of agents and graph engineering still feels distant from a pump jack
- 24:52SPEAKER_01: in Winkler County.
- 24:53SPEAKER_00: Closer than it feels.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: For the field operations manager,
- 24:56SPEAKER_00: the completion engineer,
- 24:57SPEAKER_00: the landman,
- 24:58SPEAKER_00: the shift is freeing them from data entry and manual reporting
- 25:00SPEAKER_00: so they can spend their time on decision making and actual problem solving.
- 25:03SPEAKER_00: Right now,
- 25:04SPEAKER_00: a huge portion of their day goes to collecting,
- 25:06SPEAKER_00: cleaning, and moving data from one place to another.
- 25:08SPEAKER_01: Or chasing down a PDF someone emailed three weeks ago that got buried.
- 25:12SPEAKER_01: I still see guys with clipboards writing down gauge readings that get entered into
- 25:15SPEAKER_01: a system once a week.
- 25:17SPEAKER_01: All the AI agents in the world won't help you if the foundational data is stuck on
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: a piece of paper in someone's truck.
- 25:22SPEAKER_00: And that's why the first question for anyone considering this path isn't,
- 25:25SPEAKER_00: how do I deploy an AI agent?
- 25:27SPEAKER_00: It's, how do I get my data digitized at the source and make sure it's clean and consistent?
- 25:32SPEAKER_00: Eddie Irvin from Nashville AI Advisory makes this point well.
- 25:35SPEAKER_00: The model doesn't matter as much as process clarity,
- 25:37SPEAKER_00: diligent prioritization, and robust communication between business and tech teams.
- 25:41SPEAKER_00: You can't automate a broken process and expect good results.
- 25:44SPEAKER_01: I've watched operators spend a fortune on a shiny dashboard pulling
- 25:47SPEAKER_01: from 10 different systems,
- 25:48SPEAKER_01: then discover half those systems are fed by manual entries from the field,
- 25:51SPEAKER_01: sometimes weeks old.
- 25:52SPEAKER_01: Gives you a beautiful picture of stale information,
- 25:55SPEAKER_01: worse than no information in some ways because it creates false confidence,
- 25:58SPEAKER_01: which brings us back to that green light dashboard in Loving County.
- 26:01SPEAKER_01: Full circle.
- 26:02SPEAKER_00: So for people in the field,
- 26:03SPEAKER_00: the immediate takeaway this year isn't necessarily a new AI tool to learn,
- 26:07SPEAKER_00: a renewed focus on the basics of data collection.
- 26:10SPEAKER_00: Is that sensor working?
- 26:11SPEAKER_00: Is it logging correctly?
- 26:13SPEAKER_00: Are you still handwriting things that could be digitized at the point of capture?
- 26:16SPEAKER_00: Those unglamorous changes are what unlocks everything we've been talking about.
- 26:19SPEAKER_01: Blocking and tackling.
- 26:21SPEAKER_01: You want AI to transform the industry?
- 26:24SPEAKER_01: Start with getting the right numbers in the right place at the right time, every single time.
- 26:28SPEAKER_01: That means a change in habits, a change in process.
- 26:31SPEAKER_01: You build the foundation first.
- 26:33SPEAKER_01: Even if an AI agent can read a handwritten log, the reliability drops in your inviting error.
- 26:38SPEAKER_00: Adding an unnecessary step between reality and analysis.
- 26:41SPEAKER_00: So, my concrete takeaway.
- 26:42SPEAKER_00: Identify one recurring manual data entry task in your operation this week.
- 26:46SPEAKER_00: One that takes 10 minutes every day or an hour every week.
- 26:49SPEAKER_00: Figure out how to automate that one thing at the source.
- 26:52SPEAKER_00: Your first move into agent-powered workflows, even if you never use that term.
- 26:55SPEAKER_01: One thing, doable.
- 26:57SPEAKER_01: Cleaning up one puddle rather than trying to boil the ocean makes it feel less like
- 27:01SPEAKER_01: a revolution and more like actual progress.
- 27:03SPEAKER_00: And if you're listening to this thinking,
- 27:04SPEAKER_00: I actually need that built for my operation, reach out.
- 27:07SPEAKER_00: Siliconandshale at gmail.com.
- 27:09SPEAKER_00: We build this stuff.
- 27:11SPEAKER_01: Operational, not hypothetical.
- 27:13SPEAKER_00: So, back to data centers and the grid.
- 27:15SPEAKER_00: Think we'll see more oil and gas companies getting into that infrastructure landlord role?
- 27:19SPEAKER_00: If electricity prices keep climbing because of AI demand,
- 27:21SPEAKER_00: and you've got land and power, the economics start to look obvious.
- 27:24SPEAKER_01: I think you will.
- 27:25SPEAKER_01: Maybe not on the Chevron scale, a thousand acres, but smaller, local ones.
- 27:30SPEAKER_01: Especially where they've got reliable power access, maybe some of their own generation.
- 27:34SPEAKER_01: New revenue stream,
- 27:35SPEAKER_01: but also a hedge against rising energy costs for their own operations,
- 27:38SPEAKER_01: powering their own rigs, their own processing plants.
- 27:40SPEAKER_00: Their core business is energy,
- 27:42SPEAKER_00: so they understand the inputs better than any tech company leasing space
- 27:44SPEAKER_00: in Northern Virginia.
- 27:46SPEAKER_00: Leveraging that expertise feels like a return
- 27:47SPEAKER_00: to vertically integrated utility models, but for data.
- 27:50SPEAKER_01: Or maybe folks are realizing an acre in Ector County can do more than grow cotton
- 27:54SPEAKER_01: or host a pump jack.
- 27:55SPEAKER_01: It can host a box that processes a lot of bits,
- 27:58SPEAKER_01: as long as the vibrations don't mess up Microsoft's hard drives.
- 28:01SPEAKER_00: That vibration concern sounded theoretical an hour ago.
- 28:04SPEAKER_00: Now I wonder how many engineering firms are already scoping it for West Texas sites.
- 28:08SPEAKER_01: Probably fewer than should be.
- 28:09SPEAKER_00: And every piece of technology we've discussed today only works if the person in
- 28:12SPEAKER_00: the field trusts it enough to use it.
- 28:14SPEAKER_00: The tech is there to make their work less about paperwork and more about the wellbore.
- 28:18SPEAKER_01: Less paper, more wellbore, and fewer dashboards that lie to you about Loving County.
- 28:22SPEAKER_00: If your company sells to operators,
- 28:24SPEAKER_00: landmen,
- 28:24SPEAKER_00: or anyone in the energy space and you want to get in front of the people
- 28:27SPEAKER_00: who actually make buying decisions, we're taking sponsors, siliconandshale.com.
- 28:32SPEAKER_00: We'll use your product before we talk about it, which is more than most podcasts can say.
- 28:35SPEAKER_01: We will.
- 28:35SPEAKER_01: We'll put it through its paces.
- 28:37SPEAKER_00: And then you'll know if it works in Loving County or not.
- 28:39SPEAKER_01: If it works in Loving County, it'll work anywhere.
- 28:42SPEAKER_00: Alright, that's going to be a good one.