Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 28 - 4/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 28 - 4/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 28 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Monday, a new week begins and welcome to the week of the
0:37
NFL draft. I have some more Nuggets for you
0:40
guys. We had Adam Schefter who just
0:42
dropped his quote UN quote what I'm hearing around the NFL draft
0:45
article, which has some very interesting Nuggets with which
0:48
aligns with the betting market. So we already talked about five
0:51
NFL draft bets on last week's pod, which I will update for you
0:55
guys, but I just added three more.
0:57
So these are three that or maybe two more and then one that kind
1:00
of we already bet in a different direction, but in particular, 2
1:04
prop bets will add to our card with some really good juice
1:06
movement and hopefully a good edge will that will be able to
1:09
cash on Thursday. Now, aside from giving you some
1:11
draft Nuggets, we got a loaded pod today.
1:14
Episode 28 of ASG. We have three MLB baseball Major
1:18
League Baseball bets for. I have two NHL bets as well.
1:21
Welcome to the play offs and then one NBA prop for you
1:24
because we're going to look toward this one particular
1:26
player to hopefully get us 14 or more combined points and
1:30
rebounds here for tonight. Now as we get a new week.
1:33
We had a good ending to last week, guys.
1:35
We had an epic Friday night. If you remember, 6 and one six
1:38
and 1 + 3.48 units. We did a really good job with
1:41
our prop bets, so shout out to Rhythm for helping us cash our
1:45
NBA player props. I'll tell you more about Rhythm
1:47
later, but make sure you go sign up for that Rhythm 7 day free
1:50
trial so you can test it out. It's been great for golf.
1:52
I love it for NBA, especially for football when that returns.
1:55
But make sure you just use that custom link to sign up, which is
1:58
pinned at the top of my Twitter profile at Josh under score
2:01
Insights. But we cashed our Harrison
2:04
Barnes over 19 1/2 PRA. We cashed our Jaime Hakas over
2:08
17 1/2 PRA. We got the Jays, we got the
2:11
Reds, we got the Yankees, we got the Phills.
2:13
The only loser was the Saint Louis Cardinals.
2:14
So an epic Friday 6 and 1 + 3.4 units.
2:18
Let's see if we can move that over into this week and have a
2:21
good week, the week of the NFL draft.
2:23
So without further ado, let's dive right in guys, because I
2:26
got a ton, as I mentioned, a six pack for you.
2:29
So I'm going to start off with some of these NFL draft betting
2:32
Nuggets and then we'll get right into our baseball bets and all
2:35
of our other sweats for today. So as I mentioned, you know when
2:38
you're looking at the NFL draft, it's kind of a marathon, not a
2:41
Sprint. But when it gets late the last
2:43
week, that's when you can really, really take advantage of
2:46
looking at movement in terms of juice prices or movement in
2:50
terms of head to heads or draft position.
2:53
And there are a few people, a few NFL experts or insiders who
2:57
can really move numbers. So obviously, you know, we have
3:00
Mcshea, we have Chef, we have Kuiper, Daniel Jeremiah.
3:04
But the big one here obviously is Adam Schefter and Adam
3:07
Schefter, who is very dialed in. Think what you want of Adam
3:10
Schefter, but he's he has his ear to the grindstone here and
3:13
he gets a lot of insight from a lot of different people within
3:16
the league. And Adam Shepherd just released
3:18
today, this morning actually, it was 7:00 AM bright and early.
3:23
And the tweet was some NFL draft week Intel from days of phone
3:27
calls. So he's been on the on the on
3:29
the horn here talking to a lot of different teams.
3:31
And here is what he's hearing, which we are adding where I just
3:34
added to my NFL draft card. So I just added first running
3:39
back selected. I'm going with Jonathan Brooks
3:43
now, Jonathan Brooks who tours ACL last November and he was
3:48
expected to be a first round pick because the injury is going
3:50
to dip a little bit. Now he has moved a ton.
3:53
And Adam Schefter highlights the fact that really, you know, a
3:56
lot of people are expecting a big year from Brooks.
3:58
And if he's talking about this guy Brooks, he said, quote, some
4:01
think it would be a surprise if Brooks made it past Dallas's
4:04
turn at #56 So there's no running backs expected in the
4:08
first round. I think under a half running
4:09
back is a massive like -500 but we had a bunch of these guys
4:13
bunched up in the same kind of situation.
4:16
Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, Corum, Jalen Wright, they're all
4:20
in that little bit of plus money category.
4:22
Well, over the weekend, combined with Schefter's information here
4:25
and update, Jonathan Brooks has now moved from plus 125 to -110
4:29
to be the first running back selected.
4:31
So you can shop around. You might even find a plus one O
4:33
5 out there. Again, this is the beauty of the
4:35
NFL draft. Go bet it at the book that gives
4:37
you the best number. But based upon this DraftKings
4:40
number -110 I think now is the time to pounce on Jonathan
4:45
Brooks, followed by this great information from Adam Schefter.
4:47
So I added to my NFL draft card Jonathan Brooks running back out
4:52
of Texas. First RB selected at -110 Next
4:56
one up, just so happens to be another Longhorn here, looking
4:59
at Byron Murphy Junior. This guy is a stud in terms of
5:04
defensive player here and he's really rising up the ranks.
5:06
Now. I tweeted this out about Byron
5:08
Murphy and I had someone tweet me and say, oh, so you don't
5:11
like Dallas Turner, first defensive lineman edge selected
5:15
anymore, right? You're going with Murphy?
5:16
No, I'm sticking with Dallas Turner, first defensive lineman,
5:19
edge plus 100. What I'm targeting with Murphy
5:22
is his draft position. Now, Byron Murphy's draft
5:25
position. And again, he just got a shout
5:27
out from Adam Schefter this morning.
5:28
Last week it was 16 1/2. Now it's down to 14 1/2 and the
5:33
under juice on the under 14 1/2 is -150 So not only is this
5:38
number falling, but it's also juiced up under.
5:40
So I got down on the under 14 1/2 at -150.
5:45
Again, you can shop around and think one books out of -130 But
5:48
Adam Schefter specifically said Murphy not only could be the
5:51
First off the board, he kind of hedged himself.
5:53
He said Dallas Turner will be the first defensive player
5:57
selected. Or he said, sorry, He said many
5:59
people think it'll be Dallas Turner.
6:00
And it very way, very well may be, but there's some front
6:04
office execs who believed defensive tackle Byron Murphy of
6:07
Texas has a realistic chance of seizing that under.
6:10
He specifically says it's possible that a defender might
6:12
not be picked until Atlanta at 8:00 or Chicago at 9.
6:15
Now, that would be great if Dallas Turner went eight to
6:17
Atlanta and Chicago took Byron Murphy at 9:00.
6:20
Because we are going to target Byron Murphy under 14 1/2.
6:24
That's what I added to my card. Under 14 1/2 - 150.
6:28
Let's have him go 14 or lower. Then the last one, Adam
6:31
Scheffler. Scheffler, Schefter talked about
6:35
Jaden Daniels, now Jaden Daniels obviously is in the running to
6:40
be selected at second overall. And this thing's gone back and
6:44
forth. Daniels at one point was as high
6:46
as I think -250 to be selected second overall, it has moved a
6:50
little bit. He's now -170 but now literally
6:53
this is, this is crazy. I tweeted this out at Josh under
6:56
Score Insights, Daniels and I quote tweeted Chapter, and you
6:59
can check my Twitter for everything.
7:00
I'm telling you now if you want to get some more insight at Josh
7:03
under score Insights. But I tweeted this out at 12:59
7:06
PM just a little bit ago. And Daniels was -170 and
7:11
basically you had Adam Chapter saying they're going to pick
7:13
Daniels basically. So that's good news.
7:16
You can target Jayden Daniels -170 but now I'm looking and he
7:19
just went to -200 so it goes to show you how quickly these
7:22
things move. But what I'm getting at is maybe
7:24
you already kind of bet this in a way, because we talked about
7:27
on last week's pod, a top 123. It's got to be exact Williams,
7:32
Daniels May at -145 So now it is -150 And I want to say it may
7:39
even be creeping up a little bit here, at least if I can find it
7:41
real quick. If not, I'll just I'll just kind
7:44
of move on here. But I want to say, OK, top three
7:48
Williams Daniels May now it's -165 So I quote tweeted it, it
7:52
was at -150 So again, you can either stick with your top three
7:56
exact Williams Daniels May. I got a -, 145 last week.
8:01
Or if you get a book sub 200 on Daniels, I would save the juice
8:04
and go top three. But anyway, that's good news for
8:07
our 123 Williams Daniels in May. It was again -145 on last week's
8:12
pod, we mentioned it. Now it's -165 and the whole
8:15
point here, guys, is now that we're on the Monday before the
8:18
draft, the week of the draft, we want either the things that
8:22
we've already bet on the line to be moving in our favor and
8:24
getting closing line value or the things that we've been
8:26
focusing on to jump on before they move too much.
8:28
So that's why I'm highlighting like Brooks only at -110 or, you
8:31
know, Murphy before that juice rises even more.
8:34
So again, if you're feeling good about something you already bet
8:36
and you're beating the closing line, don't double down, triple
8:38
down. Just stick with it.
8:39
You did your part. But these are these other bets
8:42
here that we're adding to our card.
8:43
So now I have what I, what I think 7 or 8 bets.
8:47
Murphy under 14 1/2. Brooks first running back -110
8:51
Turner first DL, edge plus a hundred, 123.
8:55
Williams, Daniels, may -145 second offensive lineman
8:58
selected. Fuaga.
9:00
I want to double check this because I think this has moved
9:02
in our direction. But I got second DL or sorry,
9:06
second offensive lineman selected, and that is, let me
9:09
see if I can find it. We got Fuaga plus 210 now he's
9:15
plus 175. Nice.
9:16
We're moving toward Fuaga. Also, Brock Bowers under 12 1/2
9:20
at -140 all these different tabs, they're like impossible to
9:24
find, but let's see if we can find this here.
9:27
Bowers is now. We got him under 12 1/2 at -140
9:32
and Bowers is 12 1/2 under -200 Nice.
9:36
Let's freaking go. And then last one for you, our
9:39
guy Michael Pennix. We need him to be a first round
9:42
pick. We got him under 32 1/2 - 120.
9:46
Now he's under 32 1/2 - 200. Boom.
9:49
So there we go. We're moving in the right
9:50
direction, guys. So maybe add a few more, but
9:53
that's what I'm looking at right now.
9:55
So let's ride. All right, with that being said,
9:58
let's get into some baseball here.
9:59
So let's see if we can keep it rolling as we've kind of gotten
10:02
a little bit of a groove here with MLB.
10:04
Now, first one, this is a game that I already bet that
10:06
literally after I wrote about it and bet it, I just found out
10:09
that Bryce Harper is having a kid.
10:11
Shout out to him missing the game tonight, but not good for
10:13
our bet. So the signs come back a little
10:15
bit, but I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
10:16
I'm going to stick with tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies now
10:20
match up here. Phillies 14 and eight.
10:21
They've won six straight just swept the White Sox.
10:24
Reds, meanwhile, 13 and 9 just swept the angels.
10:27
Well, pitchy match up here We have Ranger Suarez going with
10:30
Philly three and O 1.73 ERA. He's been great hunter green O
10:33
114.35 ERA for Cincinnati. Now, this game was basically a
10:37
pick em and we saw early this morning or late morning, Philly
10:42
get all the way up to -120 but now, because Bryce Harper's out
10:45
of lineup, not a great break. Sometimes it happens.
10:48
This is now back down to like a pick em, like -110 both sides.
10:52
So I'm going to stick with Philly.
10:53
I already betted at -120 It's not a great number for me at
10:56
this point because it's moved the other way because of Harper.
10:58
If you don't want to play it because of Harper, I get it.
11:01
But the fact that we're still basically a pick em, I'm still
11:04
going to ride with Philly in this spot. 72% bets, 83%
11:08
dollars, better bats and really going to hit bank on their
11:10
offense hitting 247 verse 225. Better pitching staff team ERA
11:14
3.93.39 versus 3.92. Now a lot of these other systems
11:20
that I was leaning on earlier are no longer a match because
11:22
it's basically a pick em game and they would require Philly to
11:25
be a favorite. But they did have a match on
11:28
road favorites. 65% this year. Sweet spot short favorites -130
11:32
or less. 57% non division favorites.
11:35
Again, now you're a pick em if you don't want to play it now, I
11:38
mean, you haven't bet it yet. If you want to lay off, I get
11:40
it. But I am sticking with the
11:41
Phillies hoping we get lucky here even though we were unlucky
11:44
to find out that Bryce Harper is going to miss the game anyway.
11:47
Second bet on the board. Nothing's changed here and I'm
11:50
liking it even more. Toronto and Kansas City, let's
11:53
go. Toronto Blue Jays.
11:54
This is a 7:40 Eastern Time game here tonight.
11:57
Blue Jays come in 12 and 10. They were great for us over the
12:00
weekend. Cast a couple bets for us
12:02
against against San Diego, six and two their last eight.
12:05
The Royals, meanwhile, just got dropped two or three against the
12:08
OS Also good as you may have had the OS with me a couple times
12:11
this weekend. Now, what do we like about this
12:14
one with Toronto data wise, the lines going in their direction.
12:16
This game opened at basically a pick em.
12:18
You know, minus one O 5 -, 110 both sides.
12:21
Even some shops were slightly KC like -112 now we're down to a
12:25
pick em or some shops are now even Toronto -110 -, 115.
12:30
So this line is moving toward Toronto tells us that we got
12:32
smart money on the Jays because the bet splits are 5050 right
12:36
down the middle. 5050 line should move at all.
12:38
Yet it is moving toward Toronto tells us smart money here is on
12:41
the Jays. Keep on cruising.
12:44
Couple of their angles here that still match Toronto would be a
12:47
favorite off a loss. Those teams are 85 and 51 this
12:51
year, 63% with a 6% ROI. They'd also be a road favorite,
12:57
65 percent, 15% ROI, short Rd. faves, sweet spot -130 or less.
13:01
These are all matching with Toronto.
13:04
And also a ton of money hit this over, but kind of the value's
13:07
now gone. I mean, if it's a 9:50 to 8:00
13:09
game, you're gonna be like, who cares?
13:11
Just play the over. But this total open at 8:00,
13:13
pros hit the over 8 / 8 1/2, and now it's at 9, and it may even
13:17
be going to 9 1/2. So I don't know, maybe if you
13:19
played the nine, it's just hard for me to bet an over 9 when it
13:21
opened at 8:00. But it's definitely a clear kind
13:24
of example here of the fact that a lot of pro money took this
13:27
over 52% bets, 67% money is on the over and the over's getting
13:33
only 52% bets. I saw, sorry, I said that 52%
13:37
bets, 67% money. But it's really good weather
13:40
forecast at Kauffman Stadium. It's going to be high 60s,
13:42
nearly 7015 mile per hour winds blowing out to dead center.
13:47
So if you like the over again, it's it's gotten hit, it's
13:49
gotten hammered. But I don't love the fact that,
13:52
you know, pros got 8/8 and 1/2 and now we're getting a nine.
13:55
You know, this is a 5 to 4 game. They win.
13:56
We push if we're late, but I would definitely lean over if
14:00
you're making me play it. But I'm just going with the Jays
14:02
here. Kind of a very sharp dog to fave
14:05
pick em to fave big system match play.
14:07
Let's go Toronto. I got Toronto at around -110 -,
14:11
115. Then last by the night.
14:13
If you keep giving me the OS and these really good, you know,
14:17
pick em prices, I'm going to keep playing them.
14:18
Give me the Orioles tonight, guys.
14:20
The Birds, Orioles here are on the road at the Angels 9:38 PM
14:24
Eastern Time game. OS 14 and seven looking good for
14:28
over 89 1/2 win total and to win the AL East.
14:31
But they're six and one their last seven.
14:33
They just took two or three against the Royals.
14:35
The Angels, meanwhile, 9 and 13, they've dropped four straight.
14:38
Just got swept by the Reds and they just put Anthony Rendon on
14:41
the DL. So starting to get a little bit
14:43
banged up here. I think he started O for 21 and
14:46
then he's starting to play pretty well hitting like 267.
14:49
But they're going to miss Rendon.
14:50
Anyway, this line's moving toward Baltimore.
14:52
If you like Toronto, you like Baltimore.
14:55
Tonight it was basically a pick em game or Angels were a slight
14:58
favorite, like -115 now it's down to a pick em game or maybe
15:02
hopping the fence toward maybe even Baltimore going to -115 so
15:07
basically short fave LA. Now it's down to a pick em and
15:10
it may be hopping the fence again toward the Orioles.
15:13
Orioles are getting 82% bets, 86% dollars.
15:16
So big public and sharp bet here.
15:18
Again, I always mention this 'cause people tweet me and
15:20
they're like, aren't you a contrarian?
15:22
Why are you on Baltimore getting 82%?
15:24
I'm like, OK, baseball's a little different.
15:25
It's not football, it's not just public, it's a money line sport
15:29
and the system matches lean here with faves.
15:31
So I always got to mention that. Am I?
15:33
Will I ever be on an 82% NFL? No, never.
15:36
It's way too public in the most public sport anyway.
15:39
I'm gonna bank on the OS with their offense.
15:41
They're doing 26533 home runs, 122 runs scored.
15:45
Angels only two 3722 homers and 92 runs and here in particular,
15:49
there's a great situation to back Baltimore.
15:51
Technically the OS are if you had to pick, they're technically
15:54
slightly a dog here and as a dog, they are the best dog team
15:59
in baseball since the start of last year. 45 and 3556% but
16:04
because of the plus money payouts, 24% ROI Oriole six and
16:08
three on the road. Angels two and four at home.
16:10
Baltimore plus 29 and run differential.
16:13
LA is -17 and did lean a little over here. 8 1/2 juiced up over
16:18
-115 -, 120 some books, maybe even going to 963% bet, 77%
16:23
dollars are on the over. Pretty good bet.
16:26
Split in the OS are the third best over team in MLB, 13-6 and
16:30
two to the over. So you got some pretty short
16:31
prices here, guys. Can we get two out of three?
16:33
That's the goal. Toronto round -110 -, 115
16:37
Baltimore round -110 and Phillies.
16:40
I got a bad -120 again. If you don't want to play it
16:42
because of Harper, I get it, but I'm going to still ride my bad
16:45
-120 fills. If you want to play, you can get
16:48
a much better like -110 right now.
16:50
But Jays, Baltimore and Philly, let's get two out of three.
16:53
Let's go now over to the NHL because I'm back in the NHL
16:58
because we're at the post season.
16:59
We got some good steam moves. So first game here, I want to
17:03
mention Toronto and Boston. Number one.
17:05
Raise your hand if you got down with me.
17:08
I mentioned it on the pod on the Boston Bruins to win this
17:11
series. The Bruins to win this series.
17:13
We got AI think it was -125 S pretty darn good number there.
17:18
Let me just dial up and give you the updated series price.
17:21
The Bruins are now -240 let's go.
17:25
By the way, we also are off to a good one O start with our
17:29
Cleveland, Cleveland Cavs series price.
17:31
I think that was -190 or something.
17:33
And now it's over -200 they're up on nothing.
17:36
Anyway, I'm going with the Bees tonight.
17:38
You can call me a homa, but I got a good steam move here
17:41
toward Boston. Now the Bruins who had a big win
17:44
over the weekend, 5 to 1, won that game up one nothing in the
17:49
series. What's interesting about this
17:50
one is that the Bruins are going with Linus Olmark, which is
17:54
surprising because the Bruins basically they have two really
17:59
good goalies and a lot of people are like you can't rotate in the
18:02
play offs. You got to go with a hot hand.
18:04
Obviously you had let me just double check because I got a
18:08
notification that Olmark is starting, then I went to Daily
18:11
Face Off and it says unconfirmed.
18:13
So let me just double check and I actually like this move here.
18:18
Let's see, I guess it's not. He still won't say who who it's
18:24
going to be. So maybe, maybe it's not
18:25
confirmed. It's Hallmark.
18:26
Anyway, Swayman or Hallmark. I thought they were going to go
18:28
to Hallmark and stick with the rotation.
18:30
Maybe I'm wrong, but either way you're going to have a good
18:32
goalie here. But based on the market lines
18:35
going to the Bees guys, Bruins open -135 they're up to -145 I'm
18:40
really going to continue to bank on the Bruins with a better
18:43
defense, better goaltending, whether it's Allmark or Swayman.
18:47
The Leafs are banged up. Knee Lander, one of their best
18:50
players, missed the first game. I'm not sure if he's going to
18:52
play tonight or not. We also have correlative betting
18:55
with a favorite low total. If your amount of expected goal
18:58
scored, more likely to come from the better team.
19:00
This one's a 5 1/2 total. Bruins are only giving up 2.7
19:04
goals a game versus 3.2 for Toronto.
19:06
Better penalty kill 83% versus 77%.
19:10
The playoff experience obviously of the Bruins is one thing to to
19:14
bank on here and we do have a decent bet split 85% bets, 90%
19:18
money on Boston. But the Bruins are the last ice
19:21
change with either a good swimming after a great game one
19:24
or a rested Omark and the lines moving toward the Bruins.
19:27
Give me the BS here guys, shop around.
19:29
I got the Bruins at -145 next one for you.
19:34
I told you got two of them. Let's go Dallas Stars.
19:36
I'm going with the stars tonight, Dallas Stars.
19:39
This is game one of their series against the Vegas Golden
19:41
Knights. And this one reminds me of a
19:43
couple good sharp steam moves that cashed over the weekend.
19:46
Like if you noticed, both the Florida Panthers and the New
19:49
York Rangers were favorites, home favorites who were expected
19:52
to win the series, who had Steam game one and both won game one.
19:55
So this reminds me a lot in terms of what we're seeing with
19:58
Dallas tonight and game one against VGK.
20:00
Dallas Open this one around -125 -, 130.
20:06
Now they're up to -140 I see a -, 145 out there.
20:09
So this line is steaming toward the Dallas Stars.
20:12
Obviously you're going to have home ice here.
20:14
The Dallas Stars have a one day rest advantage, although both
20:16
teams are rested because of the difference between the right end
20:19
of regular season and game one of the playoffs.
20:22
Good bet split though to Dallas. 74% bets, 86% dollars again.
20:26
Reminds me of that game one steam with the Rangers.
20:28
And Oh my God, Charlie's happy about that.
20:30
Big Rangers fan in Florida. And then offensively, better
20:33
offense, 3.6 goals game versus 3.2 better power play, 24%
20:37
versus 20%. And I'm going to bake on the
20:39
home Rd. of both these teams because the Stars are one of the
20:42
best home teams in hockey. 2611 and four.
20:45
Vegas was only 1817 and six on the road.
20:48
So again, Vegas is a coin flip on the road.
20:51
Dallas is great at home. The line's moving toward Dallas.
20:54
They're favored to win the series.
20:55
This is reminiscent of what we saw with the Rangers in Florida
20:58
over the weekend. And they're game one.
21:00
So I'm going Dallas here to win game one.
21:03
I got the Dallas Stars at -140 now to finish up the pod.
21:08
We're pretty much hitting on all sports here today, which is
21:10
fantastic. I have a best bet for you in
21:14
terms of what's been cashing for us recently.
21:17
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. There's a lot of opportunity on
21:20
the board site in the NBA. We got three games.
21:22
I was interested in maybe a couple sides.
21:25
Couple totals were intriguing to me, but I said, am I going to
21:28
bang my head against the wall with sides and totals in the NBA
21:31
or am I going to take advantage of the rhythm projections in my
21:35
own intuition and bet some player props because I don't
21:38
want to jinx it. I'm I'm going to jinx the hell
21:39
out of it right now. But anyway, hope I don't.
21:41
That's why you knock on wood, but we're three and O with our
21:44
props. Here we are.
21:47
We started with who is it? Bogdanovich over, Hakez over,
21:51
Barnes over. So if it ain't broke, don't fix
21:54
it. And I'm going back to a player
21:55
prop for tonight. So this is an early game.
21:57
This is the magic in the Cavs. Obviously, I'm rooting for the
22:00
Cavs because we have the Cavs series price.
22:03
Let me just dial it up here. I want to get the updated number
22:06
because we bet it on the pod at -1 I want to say -190 now it's
22:11
-350 let's go. Cabs.
22:13
Hell yeah. Remember, they're only getting
22:14
like 25% bets, but set like 70% money, something crazy like
22:18
that. Anyway, for tonight, the lines
22:20
coming back a little bit toward the Magic.
22:21
The cabs were -6 opener. Now they're down to 5 1/2.
22:26
It could be a very low scoring game. 2O four down to two O 3
22:29
1/2, two O 3. So it does look like a little
22:31
bit toward the Magic, little bit toward the under.
22:33
But you know what I'm going to do?
22:34
Guys going to a player prop and there's one player prop that
22:38
jumped out to me all three games and it's Max Struce.
22:44
If you guys remember, Max Struce, who had a good couple
22:47
years there with the Miami Heat, signed a deal with the Cavs.
22:50
He is one of their starters. And Max Struce, we're going to
22:54
target his over 13 1/2 points and rebounds.
22:59
So what they call the combo bet. So he's got to combine for for
23:02
14 or more points in rebounds. Now that is priced at -122 so
23:08
not a bad price here at all. He may be able to shop around
23:10
and find a better number than that.
23:11
But Rhythm, who helped us win our last three player props,
23:15
Rhythm is projecting 16.5 points in in rebounds combined.
23:20
So if we're getting an over 13 1/2 and Rhythm is projecting a
23:23
16 1/2, that's a pretty good angle right there.
23:27
And then also I when I'm looking at Rhythm, couple things I
23:29
always want to highlight is their DTM, so difference to
23:33
market. So they have 16 1/2 projected,
23:36
we're getting over 13 half. That is a 30.5% difference to
23:41
market, 72% win probability. And if we dig a little deeper,
23:44
Max Struce has gone over 13 half points and rebounds in four of
23:49
his last five games and seven of his last 10 games.
23:51
And if you look at game one, it was a low scoring game that the
23:55
Cavs won, but he played 33 minutes.
23:58
He had seven points and 9 rebounds.
24:01
So that adds up to 16. So again, he can score 14 points
24:05
and grab zero boards and we cash.
24:07
He could get a combination of both.
24:09
He could have, you know, I don't know, seven points in in, in
24:15
what is that, 7.7 rebounds? That's 14.
24:18
All we need is over 13 half. The other thing I like when I'm
24:21
betting on some of these guys is a guy who gets a lot of minutes.
24:25
So that that means that again, he had 33 minutes in the game
24:28
one opener. He's average over 30 minutes.
24:30
He's one of the top guys out there most of the time.
24:33
So again, I know there's a lot of attention on Garland, on
24:35
Mitchell, but Max Struce, according to Rhythm, 16 1/2
24:40
points and rebounds projected tonight.
24:42
We're going to go over 13 1/2. Can you get us 14 or more?
24:46
Let's go Max Struce. It's not about does it for
24:50
episode 28 of the All Systems Go pod.
24:52
And man, we hit on it all NFL draft, baseball, hockey, NBA
24:56
props, sides, totals. Although we didn't have any
24:59
totals, we had actually guess you could technically call some
25:02
of those NFL prop. That's maybe a total like the
25:04
Byron Murphy total. But anyway, if you enjoy the All
25:08
Systems Go pod, if it's become a staple of your day #1 thank you
25:11
for tuning in and listening and supporting the pod.
25:14
But also need your help to grow the pod.
25:16
And there's one thing you can do aside from telling your friends
25:19
and spreading the word, you know, organically, there's one
25:22
thing you can do for me that would really make me happy.
25:24
Give this podcast five stars on either or both of Spotify and
25:29
iTunes. That would really help us to
25:31
grow up the charts and help us here with our with our ratings.
25:35
So give it five stars. That would mean a lot to me,
25:36
guys. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod,
25:39
you enjoy the breakdowns. Maybe you never really knew
25:41
about data-driven betting before.
25:42
You bet with your head or sorry, you bet with your heart and
25:45
never really got the results. Now you're starting to learn to
25:48
read the market. Hopefully the Pot has helped you
25:50
along in your journey to become a more successful better.
25:53
If you are now looking at line movement system matches, bet
25:56
splits, you know, flat bedding and not parlaying.
26:01
You notice we never talk parlays.
26:03
Why 'cause they're hand out to the books.
26:04
But anyway, if any of what we talk about on the pot has helped
26:07
you become a sharper, better and you want to learn more about
26:09
data-driven betting or you need a gift to give your, I don't
26:12
know, your uncle, your grandfather, your, your, your
26:14
nephew, your son, your aunt, your whoever, whoever's
26:17
interested in betting or maybe is in a newly legalized state
26:21
and maybe they don't win a lot, but they love it and they want
26:24
to get better. Well, teach them to read the
26:25
market by buying my book. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
26:29
everything guide to sports betting.
26:31
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
26:33
It would make my day. And when I see at the book, I'm
26:35
going to sign it for you and I'm going to buy you a beer, I
26:37
promise. But seriously, guys, that would
26:39
really mean a lot to me. Anyway, that about does it for
26:42
episode 28, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
26:46
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
26:48
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
26:51
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
26:54
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
26:56
Or of course out in the desert where the true grinders get
26:59
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest
27:01
use possible has found the South point or jumping in the stadium
27:04
swim pool getting a victory burger.
27:06
I would recommend maybe the burger after you jump in the
27:08
pool instead of was that rule. I used to be a camp counselor.
27:12
You can never let the kids jump in the pool within 15 minutes
27:16
after reading. Anyway, jump in the pool after,
27:19
but go to Circa, have a blast, enjoy it.
27:22
And wherever I see you at any of those books, you're gonna walk
27:24
up to me and show me an epic Friday night of tickets, a six
27:27
and one. You love to see it, guys.
27:29
The Harrison Barnes over, Haka's over.
27:31
Jays, Reds, Yankees fills. Flash me one of those tickets,
27:34
guys. First one's for me, next one's
27:36
on you, then we're going to post about the book and sweat sharp
27:38
contrarian plays all night long wish you the best of luck
27:41
everyone the NFL draft week is here enjoy the sweats let's cash
27:45
some tickets and my parting words as always, stay sharp stay
27:48
contrarian bet against the public place yourself on the
27:50
side of the house always be with the smart money, never against
27:54
it. Will smart money win every time?
27:55
Of course not. Nothing's 100%.
27:57
There's no such thing as locker or guarantee.
27:59
Sports betting is difficult, but it's Friday night, the games.
28:02
It's days like Friday night 6 and 1 + 3.48 units where you get
28:06
your confidence and where you know that, hey, we're not going
28:09
to double down, triple down. Whether we're one and six or six
28:11
and one, process never changes. Look for those system matches,
28:14
games that fit our model against the public, with the house, with
28:17
the pros. Flat bet, avoid parlays, get
28:20
some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
28:22
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy your Monday.
28:25
I actually have my first softball game tonight, beer
28:29
league softball. So I unfortunately, I have to
28:32
DVR these games. And if anyone tells me the
28:34
score, our game is 7:00 tonight under the lights in Woburn.
28:37
It's like a little bit around 20 minutes from Boston.
28:40
But if anyone tells me the Bruins score while we're playing
28:42
the game, I'm going to kill them.
28:44
I got a DVR. I'm not going to get home till
28:46
like 9:00. Then I'm going to watch it and
28:48
I'm going to be blind on all these picks.
28:49
Anyone get PTSD or like, you know, feel like FOMO when you
28:53
have all these sweats and you got like a family function or
28:56
you got something you got to do? You can't watch your games and
28:58
you got them DVR and you're in the dark and you're like, Oh my,
29:00
up my 5 and O tonight and my O and five.
29:02
What's going on? I'm going to deal with one of
29:04
those nights tonight, but I am excited for my first softball
29:06
game because I'm an old time baseball player and it's good to
29:11
get back on the diamond. But anyway, enjoy the sweats
29:14
guys. Have a great Monday.
29:15
We'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 29 of the All Systems Go
29:19
sports betting podcast. Good luck.