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College Football Week 0 BEST BETS | It Begins Again · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: Not tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out That fella fights hard But
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: he don't get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: I'm back in my college football ensemble here, man.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: College football's beginning. It's week zero, which is... That's what
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: it's officially called, man. I don't know what to tell you.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: It's the week before week one week, week negative one. No, um, uh, I,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: there's nothing else to call it, man.
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: Um, I'm going to talk about all eight games, uh,
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: in FBS here tomorrow. I'm going to give out a
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: play on one of them. I've had one play each
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: of the last couple of years in this week. I
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: know the last two went one and one and probably
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: should have gone to one.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Oh, but whatever. Um, This time it's probably not going
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: to be one that you expect.
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: It's going to be a little bit different, but I
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: think it's the right side.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: So it's a side.
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: I don't really do much with totals here in football
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: really at all, although I think some of my total
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: opinions in the NFL tonight were all pretty. I should
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: just bet preseason, right? Like I think I said over
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: in the Packers game.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I'll have to go back and watch my show from
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: this morning. I think I said under in.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: The Seahawks Chiefs. Like I'm right about all this shit.
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: Unlike my actual plays. Yeah, isn't that awesome? McAdoo, what's up? Yes,
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: this is football season. We do Friday night, Saturday night,
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: kind of somewhere around midnight.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: Roman Anthony's not playing. He's going to be in Worcester
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: again tomorrow. That's the announcement. I don't think he's coming
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: back in this series. The Red Sox have no offense.
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: They're fucking fucked.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I didn't think they were going to win
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: this game anyway.
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: Sandoval against Schlittler, but if you are locked in a
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: 1-0 game with that Pitching matchup, just fucking steal that game.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: You got to steal that game. It's such bullshit.
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: Although the Red Sox bullpen is going to set up
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: a little bit better after that, but whatever. I'm pissed
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: about all the shit that happened today, except we won
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: with the WNBA play. Of course, WNBA starts going right
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: and everything else goes wrong. I was right about all
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: these other baseball opinions, and then both of my plays
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: go wrong, which I'm going to rant about that on
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: the morning show, I guess, because... I'm going to do
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: a morning show where I have to talk about baseball, whatever.
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: Clint is going to be back over here, so I've
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: got to figure out when he's actually coming here. I've
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: got to figure out if I'm going to be able
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: to do Sunday morning.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what's going on here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about football. I don't want the show to
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: be that long. We have eight games here.
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: There's an ESPN doubleheader. The first game is, of course,
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: as it always is, in Dublin, Ireland. This time it
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: is North Carolina and TCU playing in Dublin. I mean,
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: I do have some opinions on this game, which I
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: will talk about in a second, but this is... I
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: don't think either team is really used to playing in Dublin.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: I don't think either of these teams have really done
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: the international stuff. Belichick, as a coach for North Carolina,
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: is probably more used to doing that because he coached
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: in the NFL, of course, and they did shit like that.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who's... Oh, TCU's coach is Sonny Dykes, right?
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: So I don't know what his history is, but I
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: think North Carolina... The coaching might be a little bit
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: of an advantage there, but Belichick, I don't even know
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: how in control he is at this point. However, I
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: do actually like North Carolina to cover in this game.
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: TCU is a huge favorite, and everybody's going to probably
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: remember the early game last year, like the first game
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: of the season last year, whatever it was.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: I can probably bring it up here.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: TCU just totally embarrassed North Carolina, which was, it was
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: week zero or week one.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: I forget. I think it was week one, I guess.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: But it was a totally embarrassing 48 to 14 just
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: destruction in North Carolina, by the way, by TCU. So
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: I kind of have a feeling that North Carolina is
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: going to remember that. And that might motivate them a
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: little bit more here.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think North Carolina is going to be
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: an ass team this year, though.
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: So I don't really want to make this a play
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: or anything. But if I was going to play this,
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: I would take North Carolina plus the points here. The
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: money seems to agree. The public is coming in on TCU.
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, TCU was obviously the way better team last year, too.
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: But TCU does not have their quarterback from last year anymore,
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: Josh Hoover, who is now on Indiana.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: So they are losing him.
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: And TCU's defense is nothing special here. Although North Carolina,
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: I don't even know if they have anybody good on
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: their roster.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: But TCU's, they.
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: Opened a 6.5 point favor or about a 7 point favor.
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: Now they're all the way up to 8.5, 9. 73%
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: of the tickets on them and only 69% of the cash.
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: I would play North Carolina plus the points if I
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: was going to play this one. Like I said, we
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: can look at the returning production.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: TCU.
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: does have about half of their defense coming back. Like
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: their whole defensive line is coming back, but their defense
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: is not really that good. Most of their offense is
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: not coming back. And I'm sure they picked up some
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: guys in the transfer portal, whatever. But TCU's quarterback is
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: from Harvard, a transfer from Harvard.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: This guy, Craig, I forget what his first name is.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: There's going to be growing pains there, man, so I
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: expect TCU's offense to kind of struggle early here. I
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: don't know how good that Harvard QB.
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: Is really going to be, probably not as good as Hoover,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: although Hoover is mistake-prone, which I'll probably be talking about
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: when we have to start talking about Indiana.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: North Carolina, though, I mean, they have basically complete.
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: Turnover here, and they only have five returning starters, so
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: they're in a complete rebuild mode, and it's year number
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: two for Belichick, and The professionals will basically all tell
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: you that the third year of a new coach is
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: usually when the team takes a big step forward because
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: that coach has been able to put his system in.
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: The guys theoretically have bought into it. He's been able
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: to recruit his guys that fit into that system. Although
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: I think Belichick sucks, dude.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be honest. I don't even think he
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: was a good NFL coach. He failed literally everywhere that
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: he went except the Patriots. So I don't know, man.
• 7:23
  Speaker 5: Maybe it had something to do with him having Tom
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: Brady on his team. And when he came in, he
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: had the defense already built by the coaches that were there,
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: by Parcells and whatever, the coaches that were there previously. Whatever,
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: I'm ranting. So, yes, I like North Carolina plus the points.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: I would also lean under in this game. The total
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: is fairly low in the 40s. You know, it's college,
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: so most of the total is going to be 40s, 50s. But, yeah,
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: this is a somewhat low total, 46.5. Not really on
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: a key number or anything here. Uh, the money is
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: slightly indicating towards the under, but I think that both
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: offenses might take a little while to get going right
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: with all this turnover.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: So I don't expect a lot of points in this game.
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: I believe the last couple of Dublin games are both
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: pretty low scoring too, if I'm not mistaken. And the
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: travel might kind of throw everybody off, you know, with
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: the possible jet lag and having to adjust to the
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: time zone and whatever, uh, that could possibly throw off the, uh,
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: momentum of the offenses as well so I think under
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: might even be the better way to play this rather
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: than taking North Carolina plus the points but I agree
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: with both and if it's going to be a lower
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: scoring game that I think is correlated to North Carolina
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: covering as well because it'll be easier for the dog
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: to stay in the game so that's those are my
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: opinions on that game we have NBC at 3 p.m
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: eastern San Jose State and number 14 ranked USC USC
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: is a massive favorite in this game.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: USC, good team, a lot of returning starters.
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: They're in a power conference for sure in the Big Ten.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: They went up from 35.5 to.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: 38.5 on the spread here, and it's also the highest
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: total of the week because it's got to be a
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: high total if you're expecting a team to.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Win by almost 40. The total is 61, 61.5.
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: USC is a prolific offense, and they're returning a lot
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: of guys from the offense. But it looks like they're
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: public 81% of the tickets on them and only 68%
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: of the cash on them. So initially money drove the
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: line up on USC, but now it looks like some
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: money's coming back on San Jose state and San Jose
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: state is an in-state little brother at the very least.
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: They're a smaller school in the same state in California.
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: Although I think San Jose state gets more up for
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: like the Northern California teams, probably for like Stanford, which
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: they actually might be able to compete with Stanford because
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: Stanford's not very good.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: But San Jose State, they're going to show up. They're
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: going to try, at least in this game.
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: You know, I wouldn't want to lay the points, although
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: what I will say is that there is a stat
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: out there when you have two FBS teams going up
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: against each other in the first game of the season,
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: so week zero or week one, when the team is
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: going up against each other, haven't played yet that is
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: the case here these are both fps teams and one
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: of the teams is favored by i think it's like
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: 30 or more points or something like that the favorite
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: actually covers at a like 67 percent rate or something
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: like that so that trend favors usc covering here I
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: don't think I would do it, though.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, the back door is always going to be open.
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: Like if USC just kind of starts packing it in
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: early in these types of games, you know, I mean,
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: the offenses may start a little bit slow, but you
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: also might see like backups come in. If it's like
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: a blowout, you know, USC might just start putting in
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: second string, whatever.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Those guys could probably still score as well, though.
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: You could maybe look at the USC team total in
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: this game rather than laying the points because something crazy
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: might happen. And if you just expect a ton of scoring,
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: the money is coming in on the over here. You
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: can lay the team total with USC, but the team
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: total is really, or play it. I mean, the team
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: total is really high though. Like I think it's like,
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: it's absurd. I think it's like in the high 40s
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: or it might be higher than that. So I don't
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: really see a great angle to really play this game.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: I might have a slight lean towards the underdog covering here,
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: but I really.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Wouldn't want to do it.
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: Especially, I mean, the high total also kind of, gets
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: me off of it, too, just because I like playing
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: underdogs with lower totals. Games with a spread like this,
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: I'm usually not getting involved in them. So that's what
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: I'll say about that game. I don't have a whole
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: lot else. Well, I will say the returning production here
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: on USC is a lot.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: I think they have the most in the country, actually. Yeah,
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't have scrolled.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: USC has 15 returning starters out of the 22 players.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: including Maieva, their quarterback, who I think used to be
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: on UNLV. Nine of their offensive, nine of the 11
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: offensive players are coming back. So like their entire offensive
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: line is coming back, a couple of running backs, and
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: one of the wide receivers. So the only positions they
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: have to refill are some of the wide receiver positions,
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: and a lot of their defense is also coming back.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: So USC is going to probably be able to hit
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: the ground running, you know what I mean? So there's
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: going to be a lot of continuity there. And San
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: Jose State does not have that. They're only bringing back
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: two starters, so that might be a bit of a
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: problem for them. So I really wouldn't want to do it, man.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, there are probably some arguments for actually laying
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: the points with USC, too. But if you think the
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: continuity is going to help, especially on the offense, USC
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: team total over might actually really be the best way
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: to play that game.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: ESPN's second game of the doubleheader is NC State and Virginia.
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: And this will count as an ACC game, even though
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: I guess last year, I think it might have been
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: these two same teams that played early in the season.
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: Do you remember I was like questioning it? I was like,
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: why did that not count towards the conference record? I
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: think it was these two teams. It was some ACC game.
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: And NC State was definitely one of the two teams.
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: It might have been Virginia Tech last year. I don't remember,
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: but I was like, why did that game not count
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: as a conference game? It made no sense. The two
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: teams were in the same conference. They played each other,
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: but this will count as a conference game this year, apparently.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: This game was also supposed to be in Brazil, and
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: that got canceled for whatever reason. So this game will
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: be in Virginia, in Charlottesville. I guess it was going
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: to be a home game for Virginia, but it was
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: going to be in Brazil probably got canceled because of
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: crime or something like that. It's unsafe.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: I honestly have no idea.
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: The NFL will still do their Brazil game, probably, though
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: they've done the last few years, which is dumb anyway.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: When I look at this game, I mean, my initial
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: thoughts are that Virginia overperformed last year, even though they
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: do have kind of a new system there.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: They're getting going. They had a good season last year,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: but I think they overperformed a bit. And NC State,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: I think, actually underperformed a little bit.
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: So I think Virginia might take a little bit of
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: a step back this year from what they did last year.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I think they had, what did they have, 10 wins
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: last year?
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: And NC State had probably seven, I want to guess.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Maybe eight. I don't know.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: Eight?
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: I forget. But I think NC State.
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: might be a little bit more prepared to just go,
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: and they might actually take a little bit of a
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: step forward this year. NC State has the better returning
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: production here.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: They're bringing back their quarterback, C.J.
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: Bailey, and a lot of their offensive line, although they
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: are refilling a lot of the wide receiver positions, and
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: they lost their tight end, who was really good last year,
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: and they're losing their running backs. And they're bringing back
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: their entire secondary in the defense. So there is returning
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: production there, whereas Virginia does not have as much, I
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: don't think. Virginia's bringing back eight starters, mostly on the defense.
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: So Virginia's offense might not be good at the beginning
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: of the game. So that's something to keep an eye on.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: They're refilling. I know that they brought over Bo Pribula,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: the quarterback, or Pribula, I don't know, Pribula, Fibula. I
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: think he actually broke his.
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: Fibula in a game where I bet on Missouri last year.
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: That was where he played, and I got pissed, if
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: I remember correctly. Or maybe he broke his other leg bone,
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: the tibia.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: But fibula is going to be the quarterback for Virginia now,
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: so they brought him over from Missouri. He played well
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: early on last year, but then I think it might
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: have been around the time that he got hurt.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: At some point, he kind of started playing worse, though,
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: so I don't know. But he's got to learn a
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: new system here in Virginia. So I think Virginia, their
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: defense might be good because they're bringing back a lot
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: of those guys, but their offense.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: Might not hit the ground running. You know what I mean?
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: So NC State might have more continuity. The continuity on
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: their offense might help them a little bit. So I
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: like NC State in this one. And NC State has
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: won six of the last seven games they've played against Virginia.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Although Virginia is an improved team, right?
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: But last year they were like, you know, they had
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: that win over Florida State and everybody freaked out. And
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: that was a winner here on the show with Virginia.
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: But part of that handicap was that Florida State was overrated.
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: And that win started looking a lot worse as Florida
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: State continued playing terribly. So Virginia, they really didn't do
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: that much to justify what they were ranked last year.
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: And I know, I think they made the ACC championship
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: last year, but NC State, I don't know, man. I
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: think they're just kind of the more, uh, steady team
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: from a season to season. They usually beat Virginia, although
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: that might hype up Virginia, right? They might get pumped
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: up to play this game because they know they always
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: lose to NC state, but I'm going to lean to
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: NC state here. Uh, they're a four, four and a
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: half point dog. Now it had opened two and a half.
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: These weeks, zero lines move a lot so that you
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: have to be aware of that too. And when I
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: get to the show, the lines have already moved a bit.
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: Although the game I'm going to give out the line
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: hasn't moved through any key numbers or anything. Um, This
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: one did move through that key number three, though. 55%
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: of the tickets on Virginia, 61% of the cash on
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: NC State. But some of these moves could be false moves, too. Like,
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: some of the professionals will come in at the low
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: limits and they'll drive the line a certain way, and
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: they actually intend on coming back the other way.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Or there could be a
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: difference of opinion where... Some guys get out.
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: If guys like the favorite, then they play it at
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: that lower number, and then it gets higher, and then
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: guys like the underdog come in later.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: So there could be a couple of different things going
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: on in the market here, but it does look like
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: the money is coming in towards NC State here, plus
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: the points, and I would agree with that. The total
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: is on this key number of 51, 51.5 too.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: It looks like the Lion book with the M says 54.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's right, 54.5. It might have opened 54.5,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: because I know there's.
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: I've listened to professionals talk about this game, and they
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: all like the under in this one. And the under
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: looks like it is getting a lot of the money,
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: so I think the under did actually get hit.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: I think the opener might.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: Have been 54 or somewhere around there, and it got
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: driven down to 51. It is still on this key
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: number of 51.5. I don't disagree with the under here,
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: and I did hear my man, Marco D'Angelo, talking about
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: possibly taking the first half under in this game. Because
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: if you think that it's going to be, well, these
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: teams are going to be slow to start on their
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: offense especially Virginia it might have more of an effect
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: in the first half and then once these teams kind
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: of get going the chemistry will be there more and
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: they might score more in the second half so I
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: agree with him it does make sense and I think
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: there's probably a better number on it which I think
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: is why I think it was probably um it might
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: have you it might have been around 26 or something
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: like that in the first half Whereas the second, which
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: that would be actually, it should be 24, actually. Maybe
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: that is what it is. Because the first half actually
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: should be a lower total than the second half. The
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: second half is usually a higher scoring half anyway, typically.
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: But yeah, it might be like 24 and a half.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: But if that's what it is in the first half,
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: you'd be getting under like a key number there. I
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: still agree with the under 51 and a half in
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: the full game here, though. But I don't do a
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: whole lot with the totals. But I could see both
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: offenses possibly starting slow. But I think NC State will win.
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: be more prepared to hit the ground running because they
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: have the same quarterback there, same coach, same coordinators, by
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: the way. NC State, I think, is the only team
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: in the ACC that has head coach, OC, and DC
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: all coming back from last year.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: So the head coach and both coordinators. So there is
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: continuity there. All right.
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: Jacksonville State and North Dakota State on CBS Sports as
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: we get into some of the evening games here.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: North Dakota State is new to FBS football.
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: They've been a an FCS powerhouse in the lower tier
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: of Division I, and typically they're in the running to
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: make the championship or to possibly win it every single year.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Now they're up in the Mountain West, I think. They're
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: up in FBS football now. Now the question is, is
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: there going to be a period where.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: They have to adapt? You know what I mean? They
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: have to adapt to FBS. But they're playing this game
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: at home.
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: They're playing in Fargo, so they're playing Jacksonville State or
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: Jacksonville State's not going to be used to playing in
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: this stadium so with these new teams that come in
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: even though there might be some growing pains here and
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: they might be a little bit intimidated they get to
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: face an opponent that's in a week conference Jacksonville State
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: here even though they're one of the better teams in
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: their conference they're in whatever the CUSA I think is
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: where they're at so North Dakota State doesn't have to
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: face like a big boy right away and they're actually
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: favored and they get to play at home so I
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: think that will help them whereas these teams that are
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: not used to playing in the stadium might actually be
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: at a disadvantage that's what I'll say with these new
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: teams those teams might be at a bigger disadvantage when
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: they're on the road because they're going to places that
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: they're not familiar with but they might have a bigger
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: home advantage because the opponents coming in are not familiar
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: with it you know what I mean so North Dakota
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: State does have that advantage here however Jacksonville State, I believe.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: They do have a decent amount of returning production. Let
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: me see. They have eight guys returning.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: Half their defense is coming back and their quarterback is
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: coming back. Caden Creel, although most of their offense is
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: actually turning over, but they do have their same quarterback.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: So Jacksonville State does have a little bit of continuity.
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: North Dakota State also bringing back eight players, but it's
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: primarily their defense and mostly their secondary. So they'll have
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: some defensive continuity there for North Dakota State. Can they
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: cover a 6.5-point favorite, though? The professional money seems to
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: be saying no. This line actually dropped. It was 10
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: when it opened on North Dakota State. So I think
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: if you wanted Jacksonville State, you kind of missed the
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: boat here because this number is down to 6.5. You
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: might be able to find a 7, which, of course,
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: is a key number in football because it's a touchdown.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: But 10 is.
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: Also a key number. And if you wanted Jacksonville State,
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: you probably had to just jump on it and get
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: the 10. Maybe you could justify playing a seven. Some
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: of the books might have the seven out there, and
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: I probably do agree with the Jacksonville State side.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: That is where the money is.
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: 66% of tickets on North Dakota State, 62% of the
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: cash on Jacksonville State. Again, they have more continuity, including
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: on the offense with their quarterback back, so I think
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: they're more prepared to kind of just hit the ground running,
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: but it's a weird environment, right? They have to go
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: to Fargo, where they... may have never even played before.
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: So I think there is a bit of a home
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: advantage there for North Dakota State.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: But it's a low total. It's in the 40s.
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: So when it's a low total like that, I do
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: like the underdogs more than I like the favorites with
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: low totals because it's more likely the dog will be
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: able to hang around. So I think I will slightly
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: lean Jacksonville State plus the points, but not a strong
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: opinion for me. The money looks like it's also indicating
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: towards the under. But it went through that key number
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: of 47. So some money has driven this thing down
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: through the key number of 47 from 48 and a
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: half down to 46 and a half. So if you
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: like the under, you did miss that key number of 47.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I see the arguments for it, right?
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: Like both teams might have some offensive growing pains here.
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: So that would be kind of the deal there. Don't
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: have a whole lot else to say about that one.
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: Next game up is actually my play, believe it or not. Dude,
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: I didn't even think about it. I was like, yes,
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: this is going to be the only game that I
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: actually want to play here. I thought I might have
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: no plays. I thought I might skip it. And then
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: I totally forgot, and I'm like, well, wait a minute.
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: I have the jersey and the hat for our dude,
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: Noah Kaniga.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: He's still there.
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: I just mentioned when I looked at Eastern Michigan, I
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: was just like, you know, he's not listed in the
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: returning production.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: That's because he wasn't a starter. You know what I mean?
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: So he's there.
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: I think he's still there on the team. Maybe he's
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: going to be a starter this year. I don't know,
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: but don't worry. Our boy is still there, man. I
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: think Eastern Michigan is going to take a step forward
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: this year, and this is my play. So, yes, we're
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: going to the MAC here, and we're going to lay 8.5
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: with Eastern Michigan here, although I think it's mostly like
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: a 9, 9.5 out there, but there shouldn't really be
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: much of a difference there.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: As long as you don't have to lay 10 on this,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean?
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: I would say still do it at 9, 9.5. The
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: number has been sitting somewhere between 8 and 9.5 all
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: week pretty much, so we did not miss out on
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: any key number here, like I said. So I like
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: Eastern Michigan laying the points here, and I don't think
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: the public is going to really want to get involved,
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: and they don't consider either of these teams to be
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: that good. Eastern Michigan has not made much noise recently,
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: so why would they want to do that, right? 76%
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 93% of the cash on Eastern Michigan, though.
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: So the money is coming in on Eastern Michigan. I
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: found this eight and a half, by the way, at
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: the F book that I usually tell them to F
• 24:25
  Speaker 5: off because it's, you know what I'm talking about.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: It's the book that is also.
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: The merchandise store that a lot of times sells shoddy
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: quality merchandise.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I would still lay nine or nine. Don't
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: let it get to 10 though. It looks like some
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: of these books are getting close to 10 here. Find
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: the 9, 9.5. There is a 9 at the Lion
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: Book right now.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Do it. Lay the number that's lower than 10. This
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: is a number open 8, like I said.
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: The money's also coming in the over here, and the
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: total is fairly high in the 50s. So I think
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: that helps out as far as the favorite. You want
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: to see a higher total. Usually that helps out the
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: favorite if more points are going to be scored. Easier
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: chance for them to cover that number. and it looks
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: like the money is coming in on the over in
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: this one as well, but I like it.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: This is against Sacramento State, who are the newcomers to
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: the MAAC here, newcomers to FBS.
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: I don't know how that's going to go, man. I mean,
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: I can't believe they're in the MAAC, to be honest.
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: A team from California, they got to go play in Ypsilanti,
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: Michigan here.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Now, the travel is.
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: Not going to be that difficult for them because going
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: east is always easier. It's an evening game as well,
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: so it'll If their biological clock isn't in tune, it'll
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: still be like an afternoon game, so it's not a
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: problem for Sacramento State. It's still going to be an
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: environment they're not familiar with, though. It's not going to
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: be cold or anything like that. It's actually going to
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: be hot. It's going to be like 80 degrees, but whatever.
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: Sacramento State, I don't think they're going to be very
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: good at all, and I think they're going to be
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: growing pains, and they have to go on the road
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: and play their first FBS game. While I think Eastern
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: Michigan is actually going to improve this year, And they
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: do have returning production, Eastern Michigan, as I was already showing.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: They have nine.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: Returning starters, including their quarterback, Noah Kim, and a few
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: of his offensive guys coming back.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Some of the defensive guys coming back as well.
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: Not a ton of returning production, but a decent amount.
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: Whereas Sacramento State is like full turnover mode here. They
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: brought in a recruiting class, although it's only like the
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: 80-something ranked recruiting class. But they're only bringing back a
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: tight end on offense and nobody else. And their defense
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: is almost entirely turning over, too. They're only bringing back
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: four returning starters. And the transfer class that's coming in,
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know much about it, but it doesn't seem
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: like it's going to be very good. There's a reason
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: why Eastern Michigan is favored like this, and I don't
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: think anybody's going to want to lay points like this
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: with a team that they don't think is any good,
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: where they think both these teams are basically crap, pretty much.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: People are not really going to be looking at this game.
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: The public's going to be betting the NC State-Virginia game
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: the North Carolina-TCU game. Those are probably going to be
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: the heaviest bet games here. And then maybe in the
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: night game, Memphis-UNLV maybe, but that's a late night game.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: The primetime games actually are not very good games necessarily,
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: especially not the Florida State one, but whatever.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I like this.
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: We're going to lay the points to the Eastern Michigan, man.
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: They have their quarterback back. I think they'll be able
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: to get some offense going right out of the gate here,
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: so let's do it. And I don't expect much from
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: the newcomers here, Sacramento State, going on the road. Yeah,
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: unfamiliar environment for them. And usually the first game, first
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: home game, the crowd usually gets a little bit crazy, right?
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: So I think the home teams tend to have a
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: little bit of an extra advantage for that reason, too,
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: just kind of in general, because the crowd gets, you know,
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: because it's a new season.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So everybody's hopeful. So the crowd. shows up.
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: It's like it's homecoming, basically, whatever, so the crowd shows
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: up for it, for that first home game, or maybe
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: the official homecoming might be like the first non-week zero
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: home game, but whatever. ACC Network, and that game is
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: only on ESPN +, by the way, although I do
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: have that, so I'll be able to watch every one
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: of these games tomorrow if I want to, because they're
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: all in the sports package or on ESPN +, which
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: I also have, so there you go. Hawaii and Stanford
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: on the ACC Network here. which is the one of
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: the two primetime games here. It's two bad teams, but
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: it's kind of an interesting game. Stanford does have a
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: new coach, which is to Vita Pritchard, who was the
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: quarterback coach for Washington in the NFL, the Washington Redskins.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: He's coming over.
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: Um, Andrew Luck is still like running the program there
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: at Stanford, former quarterback at Stanford, obviously.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: And my guy, uh, from.
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: The Colts who's season, who's a career in the NFL
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: was cut way too short.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: Um, We'll see, man.
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, Stanford's going to have to put in a
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: new program here, right, with their new coach. But they
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: do actually have a decent amount of returning starters, a lot, actually.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: They have 12. So Stanford does have a new quarterback
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: coming in. I don't know much about him, but they're
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: bringing back seven guys on the defense and five guys
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: on the offense.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: So they have 12 returning starters.
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're necessarily a good team, but they
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: will have some continuity here bringing all those guys back,
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: whereas Hawaii is only bringing back seven, although they are
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: bringing back their quarterback, Alejandro, and I guess Ashlock, this
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: wide receiver they're bringing back, I guess is really good,
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: and I guess it seemed like there was a question
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: as to whether or not he was going to play
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: in this game. I think it was him, and I
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: guess he is, so the line kind of moved all
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: over the place here. It was Stanford opened three. Then
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: it was up to five and a half. Then it
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: got driven all the way back down to like three
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: and a half or something. Now it's back up to four.
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: So this line has been bouncing all over the place.
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: But I think the real money is on Stanford here.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: 63% of tickets, 75% of the cash on Stanford here.
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: You can lay like a four pretty much with Stanford
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: right now. That seems to be the common number across
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: the board. I know it's not three, and three is
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: that key number, but I'd still lean towards laying it
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: with Stanford here.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Hawaii, they don't do well on the mainland, man.
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: Like I just showed you, Stanford, they're considered to be
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: the better team because they are favored by a little
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: bit more than the home advantage they'll get here. They
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: have more continuity because they're bringing back a bunch of guys.
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: They have a new coach, whereas Hawaii doesn't.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: But Hawaii.
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: They are terrible when they come to the mainland.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: This is a crazy stat.
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: I've heard multiple people put this out this week.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Hawaii, they have not beaten a power conference team in
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: a road game on the mainland, like in the contiguous
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: 48 states, since 1992 when they beat Oregon in one
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: of the early games of the season. Ninety-two. So, what,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: 34 years? Is that what that is? Did I do
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: that math right?
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: Hawaii has not beaten a power conference team in a
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: road game on the mainland since 1992. Now, of course,
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: they could cover and not win here, but you've got
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: to think, if Stanford's winning this game, they're probably covering.
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: The situation where they wouldn't, of course, would be like, oh, yeah,
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: if Stanford wins by three, it's a possibility. But if
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: Stanford's going to win, they're probably covering this. Now, I
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: believe Stanford did lose to Hawaii last year in the
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: first week here or week zero. That game was in Hawaii, though, obviously,
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: based on the stat that I just put out there.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: But that's a crazy stat. Hawaii is just not a
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: good team on the mainland, man. They really struggle. They're
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: lucky for them.
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: They're not in a power conference. They're still in the
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: Mountain West, I think, right? They can beat some of
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: those teams and have on the mainland. But Stanford's an
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: ACC team, man. Although you could make the argument, well,
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: Stanford's one of the worst teams in the ACC and
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: the ACC is one of.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: The worst power conferences.
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: I know that's true, but it's still a trend that
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: Hawaii does not do well in these types of environments.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Yes, Hawaii beat them 23 to 20 in week zero
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: last year in Hawaii.
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's going to happen again. I like
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: Stanford in this one. I agree with the professionals in
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: this one. I would only lay it with Stanford here,
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: and the money is also coming in on the over
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: for whatever that's worth in that game. The total in
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: the high 40s in that one, which is, I think,
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: good enough to play kind of a small-ish favorite like
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: that if you really wanted to do it.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: New Mexico State, Florida State, at Florida State on the
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: CW at 7 p.m. because CW does carry college football.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: It's not all.
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: I don't know, Supernatural and Whose Line Is It Anyway
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: and whatever other stuff they have on the CW. Buffy
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: the Vampire Slayer.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Is that still on? I don't even know. Florida State's
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: a massive favorite. So like I said with USC.
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: they do fall into this category of an FBS team
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: against another FBS team in their first game of the
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: season laying more than 30 points. They do fall into
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: that category of 67% coverage rate by the favorite in
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: a spot like that. So Florida state, you know, and
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: Florida state, I think might be flying under the radar
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: a little bit. So I think Florida state, I, I
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: don't hate them in this game. Like Florida state, They're
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: trying to rebuild, of course. They brought in a pretty
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: strong recruiting class, it looks like. I don't know who's
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: really in it. They're one of the top 25 recruiting classes,
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: I think. No, they're 28th, my mistake, according to 24-7 Sports,
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: at least. I don't know how they rank these things, but.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: We'll see, man.
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: Florida State, it's going to be growing pains, though, because
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: they're turning over the whole team again. And Castellanos, who
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: was the big asshole quarterback who left Boston College, my guys,
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: he went to Florida State and they were ass again
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: last year after he hyped it up like Florida State's
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: going to dominate.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, fuck you.
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: And now Castellanos, I forget where he went, but he's
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: like a backup somewhere now.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: Good luck. I think he's at Texas Tech. Good luck, bro.
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, his team will win, but he's not going
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: to be in there unless they're QB gets hurt. I
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: don't think he's their starting QB. Anyway, honestly, I have
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: no idea who's on this Florida State team. They do
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: have a lot of turnover here. In rebuilding mode, I
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: can't type, obviously. Hold on. Florida State, they have six
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: returning starters, not a whole lot at all. So, yes,
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: it is a lot of turnover here for them. But
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: New Mexico State, they're bringing back nine returning starters, mostly
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: their defense. So, basically, their linebacking core and most of
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: their secondary coming back here. New Mexico State, not a
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: lot of offense coming back, though, their offensive production. Florida
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: State's just the way better program, and they just have
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: way more skill and talent, obviously, which is why they're
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: favored by this much, and again, I think Florida State
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: might be under.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: The radar because they looked so bad the last.
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: Two years, but you know that they're a strong program,
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: and at some point, they're going to be built back up.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's going to be starting here, man. Honestly, I
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: have no idea who's in.
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: The recruiting class, but They have 78% of tickets, 94%
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: of the, sorry, in their transfer class. That's what I meant. Sorry,
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: this is the transfer class. It's the new age, man,
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: not recruiting, transfer. But the recruiting still is a thing
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: as well. But yeah, transfer class. Actually, I could probably
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: see who the best commits are here. If I arrange
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: it by the top commits, who do they even get?
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: It looks like an offensive tackle from Auburn. Looks like
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: he was their best transfer. Looks like a lot of
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: offensive linemen here. Or actually, it looks like some of
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: them transferred away from Florida State, though.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: But still, I don't know. It looks like a lot
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: of focus on the offensive line here turning over. I
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: don't know. So, I guess do with that info what
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: you want, unless I'm filtering.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: By position and I don't realize.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think I am. I'd probably lay the points
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: on Florida State, though. I mean, I don't know.
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't have a great opinion on this
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: game at all. But, you know, just basically it would
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: just be because the trend says that these favorites usually cover,
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: but laying 31 points or whatever is not really in
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: my repertoire it went up from 29 31 is a
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: key number in football to some degree so i would
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: if you're gonna lay the points i would try to
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: find the 31 uh it looks like it might only
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: be available in like the vegas books right now that
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: looks like pretty much all the online shops have 31
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: and a half so it is above that key number
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: the total in this game is not really that high
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: at 53 and a half i mean i don't know
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: i mean i really have not a but yeah, Florida state,
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: obviously I expect them to win.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I would.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: Probably lean more towards them covering the knot, but I got,
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: it's probably my weakest opinion out of all these games. Um,
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: Memphis and UNLV is the last game.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: This is on Fox. It's late night.
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: Cause it's in Las Vegas at UNLV UNLV. It'll be
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: their second year with Dan Mullins there. And you know,
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: I don't like Dan Mullins. I don't, I don't think
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: he's very good. Um, and you guys have, uh, said
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: otherwise in the chat, but, uh, You know, I was
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: a UNLV naysayer last year. They did well in the
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: Mountain West, but again, they didn't win it. They couldn't
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: get over the Boise State hump. But now that Boise
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: State's in the Pac-12, UNLV has the best odds to
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: win the Mountain West this year. I'm not convinced that
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: they will, although the second best odds are in North
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: Dakota State, and I don't see them coming in and
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: doing it in their first season, which is why I
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: think I said I like New Mexico in that conference
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: for value. UNLV's got seven returning starters. They're not returning
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: their quarterback. Now, There's going to be some turnover here
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: with UNLV. And they're saying they're going to play two quarterbacks.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: And I don't know if that's just to throw off
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: Memphis here so that Memphis doesn't know which quarterback they
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: have to face. They have to prepare for both of them.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: But if you can't decide on a starting quarterback, that's
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: not a good thing, man. There's like no continuity there.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: It's jarring to switch from quarterback to quarterback. So I
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: honestly have no idea what UNLV is doing. I don't
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: know if I love that. Whereas Memphis, they do not
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: have a lot of returning starters. They literally only have one,
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: but that's because basically their team is going to be
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: Southern Miss from last year. So Memphis is basically just
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: a complete regime change here. Not regime change like the U.S.
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: military carries out, but Charles Huff, Charlie Huff, coach from
• 38:18
  Speaker 5: Southern Miss. It's going to be his third program in
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: three years because he was at Marshall.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: Then he took that.
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: Marshall program, moved all those guys, went with a bunch
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: of his guys over to Southern Miss. They did all
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: right last year as well. Both those programs did well.
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: And now he's moving up to Memphis, so he's all
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: over the place. But he's bringing a lot of his
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: guys with him, so there will be continuity here, even
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: though Memphis doesn't have any returning starters. But The coach
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: with a bunch of his players are still going to
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: be here. It's just they're going from Southern Miss to Memphis.
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: So I think that that's not a bad thing, except
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: Memphis has not decided on a quarterback yet, although they're
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: not doing what UNLV is doing, and they're not saying
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: we're going to play two quarterbacks. Memphis is just not
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: deciding on a quarterback yet. But what I think is
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: going on is that I think Memphis internally, probably they
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: know who the starting quarterback is going to be, but
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: they want to force UNLV to have to prepare for
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: both QBs. So as far as Memphis, I don't know
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: what their depth chart is going to look like right now,
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: but I know they have a more experienced quarterback and
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: a less experienced quarterback that I think might take over
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: at some point.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: I forget who's who, but let me see.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: So the less experienced guy that might take over, I think,
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: is Air Noland, which is a ridiculous name for a quarterback.
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: Air.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: Like, is that really his name? Did his parents, like,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: name him that at birth?
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: Like, you are definitely going to be a quarterback, Air.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Air.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Or maybe they thought he was going to be the
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: next Michael Jordan. I don't know. Ridiculous name.
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: And I think the quarterback that is probably going to
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: be the one that actually starts is Marcus Stokes. I'm
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: pretty sure that's who it is because he's a junior.
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: He's got the most experience out of all the quarterbacks
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: they have on the roster. So it's between those two guys.
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: I think it'll be Stokes. That would be my guess.
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: But they're forcing UNLV to prepare for both, I guess.
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: I don't have a great opinion on this. It's going
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: to be a weird travel spot for UNLV, you know,
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: having to go play out west. But at least for them,
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: they could travel, or for Memphis, I mean, but at
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: least they can travel out there early, you know what
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: I mean? Because, you know, these East Coast teams going
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: out west for a late-night game, having to adjust their
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: biological clock, I don't love that, really.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: And the money is coming in on UNLV here. They've
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: gone up from that key number three, although it was
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: with Juice, up to four, four and a half here.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: It's a high total, by the way, 56, 56 and
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: So there's expected to be some offense in this game.
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: And I think a lot of that is because UNLV's
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: defense is putrid. Like their defense was bad last year.
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: They're turning over a lot of it this year, but
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: I don't really think UNLV's defense is going to be
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: good all of a sudden. So Memphis should be able
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: to score some here. But I don't know, man, with
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: so much, like all these question marks that these teams
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: have on offense, I don't really love the over here.
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: But it looks like the money actually drove the line
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: down initially from 58.5 down to 56.5. Now it looks
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: like money might kind of be coming in on the over,
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: but it looks like a public over. But the better
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: market read looks like it's laying it with UNLV. 50-50
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: on the tickets, 61% of the cash on UNLV. I've
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: heard some professional opinions on the other side of this
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: on Memphis. I'm not going to be doing anything with
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: this game, but I think the guys that like Memphis
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: are basically saying, well... UNLV, their inability to even figure
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: out who their quarterback is, that's going to be a problem.
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: And Memphis should have more continuity with Huff there, just
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: bringing his guys over.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: And I kind of agree with that. I don't really
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: love the location.
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: Memphis going out to Las Vegas to have to play
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: this game and maybe adjust their bio clocks here. I
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: just don't really love it. And the money seems to
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: disagree with it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: I think I would slightly lean Memphis here, but again,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: I don't love it whatsoever. And that's it, man.
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: That's the week zero show. At least it was somewhat
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: short here. I'm giving out one play. We'll start football
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: hopefully with a win here. Laying the points with Noah Kanega, man.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan.
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: Like I said, it's not my bias. I don't even
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: think I played Eastern Michigan at all last year. I
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: don't know if I did. But I think it's the
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: right play to make here. And when I was thinking
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: about it and putting that in as my play, I
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: had totally forgotten that Oh, it's our dude's team, man.
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: So I had to do it. I wore this stuff
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: last year for the beginning of college football. Let's do
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: it again, man. Eastern Michigan minus the points is the play.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: Eight and a half, nine, nine and a half. Just
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: make sure you lay a number that's not 10. You
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: know what I mean?
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: But if it goes off 10, that means you got
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: a good number if you laid less than 10 on.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: And it seems like the money is driving that number up.
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: And that's not a game that the public is going
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: to get involved in. So I think you do have
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: to kind of just play it, right? Like the professional
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: money is going to probably move that line. And it
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: seems like the professionals are on the favorite, which, you know,
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: is the side that I'm on as well here. I'm
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: not a professional, man. That's going to do it. Learn
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: to Toad, Twitter, Learn to Toad on Instagram. Like, subscribe
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: to the channel here, and you'll get notified when I
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: go live. I got to come back and do the
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: morning show, which is going to annoy the hell out
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: of me.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Go check that out there.
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube, patreon.com
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: slash learn to toad if you want to support me
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: over there. Loser cast every Tuesday night in the New
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: York Giants G-Spot podcast. That's going to do it. McAdoo,
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: thanks for hanging out, man. Let's get it going. Let's
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: enjoy the start of real football, let's say.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Some of these FCS games have been really nuts, though.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Peace.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: You do not have.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on,
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out.
• 44:31
  Speaker 6: That bad luck fights hard But it don't get the
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: On You're still here now guitar solo