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NFL Training Camp with Bill Barnwell · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. I'm
0:15
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's
0:18
Speaker 1: training camp time.
0:21
Speaker 2: We're finally here.
0:22
Speaker 1: From Loola Marramount to Saint John Fisher University. Training camps
0:28
Speaker 1: are in session for all thirty two NFL teams. Even
0:32
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey made it from a Taylor Swift concert all
0:35
Speaker 1: the way to the Kansas City Chiefs training camp. I
0:38
Speaker 1: can't think of two people with whom I'd rather discuss
0:43
Speaker 1: training camp than the two folks I'm going to do
0:46
Speaker 1: it with today. First, as always, my cost, my companion,
0:50
Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter, l Osyman.
0:56
Speaker 3: Oh ched, isn't this the best? We're going crazy about
1:00
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes throwing deep balls and about William's just completing
1:03
Speaker 3: passes over the middle. I mean, what a time to
1:05
Speaker 3: be alive.
1:06
Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna lie to you.
1:07
Speaker 1: Of course, I've watched the Patrick Mahomes Xavier Worthy throw.
1:13
Speaker 3: Maybe one of the best throws I've ever seen.
1:15
Speaker 1: Probably fifty times today. And I did go to the
1:18
Speaker 1: Bears Instagram and did swipe through every single image, because
1:24
Speaker 1: what they do is they get you with the still
1:27
Speaker 1: and then you have to swipe and then give you
1:29
Speaker 1: a highlight, and then you go still in a highlight.
1:32
Speaker 2: What I loved was two things.
1:33
Speaker 1: One like, everything is Caleb Williams and I'm like, I'm
1:37
Speaker 1: dissecting does he throwing the ball better than justin Field?
1:39
Speaker 2: And two, I see my kid.
1:42
Speaker 1: He has liked every single one of the every single
1:44
Speaker 1: one of the posts. We're in full swing returning to
1:48
Speaker 1: the show a very special guest, one of ESPN's most
1:53
Speaker 1: beloved personalities, a fierce around the horn competitor, just two
2:01
Speaker 1: weeks removed from his momentous fortieth birthday, host of the
2:06
Speaker 1: popular Bill Barnwell Show podcast, NFL Expert, one of the
2:13
Speaker 1: most read writers on espn dot com.
2:18
Speaker 2: That's rights, Bill Barnwell.
2:20
Speaker 4: I would have accepted one of ESPN's personalities, let alone
2:25
Speaker 4: being beloved. So that's a major feather in my cap.
2:28
Speaker 1: By the way, just being one of the ESPN's personalities
2:31
Speaker 1: these days, that's kind of a big deal.
2:34
Speaker 4: Sure, no, quite, at anytime, it's a big deal. I'll
2:37
Speaker 4: take it.
2:37
Speaker 5: Just being there better that works there.
2:40
Speaker 4: It's great just being beloved is even better, so I'm
2:43
Speaker 4: always happy.
2:44
Speaker 1: Well, you're all of those for us, Bill Barnwell. As
2:46
Speaker 1: a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three
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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
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3:31
Speaker 1: very important programming note for those listening and those watching,
3:36
Speaker 1: we're excited to share that are popular college sports betting
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Speaker 1: fun college football action this season. All right, Bill, you
4:26
Speaker 1: had a great column the other day. I want to
4:28
Speaker 1: start right there because you admit that you have made
4:32
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs your super Bowl pick. Going past,
4:36
Speaker 1: going back, going through the past four seasons, going back
4:40
Speaker 1: for seasons.
4:41
Speaker 2: Took me a second to put that together. You had
4:45
Speaker 2: a column this week.
4:46
Speaker 1: We had to put it in quotes sexy super Bowl
4:49
Speaker 1: picks before we even talk about like who you put
4:52
Speaker 1: on that list. Okay, explain like your methodology for how
4:56
Speaker 1: you came to the conclusion of what defines a sexy
5:00
Speaker 1: Super Bowl pick?
5:02
Speaker 4: Okay. So there's no like perfect example, and it's because
5:08
Speaker 4: the idea of what's trendy or quote unquote sexy changes
5:11
Speaker 4: from year to year. The Jets last year are a
5:12
Speaker 4: good example. This time last year, the Jets were a
5:15
Speaker 4: sexy pick. But I don't think typically that was.
5:18
Speaker 5: A very unique scenario.
5:20
Speaker 4: I would say typically, I think when we think about
5:23
Speaker 4: sexy teams, it's a few criteria that makes sense to me.
5:25
Speaker 4: So I went with teams who greatly outplayed their preseason expectations.
5:30
Speaker 4: So their preseason over unders, I grabbed from pofootball Reference
5:33
Speaker 4: dot com. You had to overperform that by like two
5:36
Speaker 4: two and a half wins minimum, just because you were
5:39
Speaker 4: you know, you blew away what people were expecting from
5:42
Speaker 4: the year the year before. Had to be competitive, ideally
5:45
Speaker 4: win a postseason game. I was willing to take a
5:47
Speaker 4: team that lost in the postseason if they were competitive
5:50
Speaker 4: in that game. And I think, most importantly, the one
5:54
Speaker 4: that's kind of the through line through so many of
5:57
Speaker 4: these teams a young quarterback that broke through last year.
6:00
Speaker 4: Either it was a rookie who had a great season,
6:02
Speaker 4: maybe exceeded expectations, maybe a guy in his second or
6:06
Speaker 4: third year who took that jump forward and really looked
6:09
Speaker 4: like a superstar in the making, maybe an MVP candidate
6:13
Speaker 4: for the upcoming season. And I went through history and
6:17
Speaker 4: went through all those teams and entirely history about through
6:21
Speaker 4: about twenty eleven. So that was kind of when the
6:23
Speaker 4: NFL went to the sloted draft model, really kind of
6:26
Speaker 4: the line of demarcation between the past NFL and the
6:29
Speaker 4: current kind of NFL market. And I have to say
6:32
Speaker 4: I was kind of expecting to dispel the idea that
6:35
Speaker 4: the sexy teams should be sexy. But as it turns out,
6:38
Speaker 4: there might be something behind this trend and these trendy
6:42
Speaker 4: teams being a little better than we might hope.
6:44
Speaker 1: Give me an example of why that is going to
6:46
Speaker 1: the past if passed his prologue, give me an example
6:49
Speaker 1: of the sexy teams that proved this theory.
6:53
Speaker 4: Yep, So let's go back to I want to say
6:56
Speaker 4: this is twenty thirteen. This would have been the second
6:58
Speaker 4: year for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, where that
7:02
Speaker 4: team did exceed expectations. Remember, Russ wasn't even supposed to
7:06
Speaker 4: start his rookie season. Matt Flynn, who they signed from
7:08
Speaker 4: the Packers, was supposed to be the supposed to be
7:11
Speaker 4: the starter. Russ wins the job in training camp from
7:15
Speaker 4: Matt Flynn. Seahawks have a good year. Russ got better
7:18
Speaker 4: as the year went along, but he was still Really
7:20
Speaker 4: it was really Marshall and Lynch in the defense and
7:22
Speaker 4: Russ kind of along for the ride. He plays well
7:24
Speaker 4: late into the year. In the postseason, they beat beat
7:28
Speaker 4: Washington in that really ugly game of Robert Griffin Tori's ACL.
7:31
Speaker 4: That Washington team also would have been a trendy team.
7:33
Speaker 4: The next year, and then they lose to the Falcons
7:36
Speaker 4: in a classic in the divisional round. So young Quarterback
7:39
Speaker 4: exceeded expectations, won a playoff game, perfect criteria, perfect example
7:45
Speaker 4: of a trendy team. They go the next year, Russ improves,
7:48
Speaker 4: they have a young roster that gets better. They win
7:50
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. Another start back being the twenty nineteen Chiefs,
7:55
Speaker 4: the Patrick Mahomes third season. His first year, he's on
7:59
Speaker 4: the bench most of the year, your two he wins MVP.
8:02
Speaker 4: The Chiefs do exceed expectations there, I think the top
8:04
Speaker 4: seed in the AFC that year, but they do lose
8:06
Speaker 4: to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. So the
8:10
Speaker 4: following year, you know, young Quarterback took them as far
8:13
Speaker 4: as they could go. MVP from the year ago, classic
8:17
Speaker 4: trendy super Bowl pick, and they go out and win
8:19
Speaker 4: a Super Bowl. There are plenty of examples of teams
8:22
Speaker 4: that didn't live up to expectations. The Mits Trubisky Bears
8:26
Speaker 4: after the double doink might be the most classic example.
8:29
Speaker 4: The Browns with Baker Mayfield a couple of times where
8:32
Speaker 4: he looked like he was breaking out. You know, teams
8:35
Speaker 4: like that were again young quarterback, exceeded expectations. But we
8:40
Speaker 4: have a few teams this year who kind of fit
8:43
Speaker 4: this criteria that makes for an exciting mix we don't
8:45
Speaker 4: normally have. I would say at least three teams who
8:48
Speaker 4: come close to fitting our idea of what a trendy
8:50
Speaker 4: Super Bowl pick might be here in July.
8:53
Speaker 1: All right, So before we get to that, I'm gonna
8:54
Speaker 1: ask Simon to guests which ones you're talking about. But
8:57
Speaker 1: one team that was randy last year that didn't get
9:02
Speaker 1: there the Jags, And like, when you think about those
9:07
Speaker 1: teams that they were over that two and a half
9:10
Speaker 1: win beyond their expectations threshold, they had a young quarterback,
9:16
Speaker 1: they advanced in the playoffs, that team cratered in the
9:21
Speaker 1: second half of the year. Why were they an exception
9:25
Speaker 1: to this rule?
9:27
Speaker 4: Well, treffor Lawrence got hurt. I mean, they were in
9:29
Speaker 4: position to be the one seed in the AFC. Remember
9:33
Speaker 4: they had that Monday night game they were playing the Bengals.
9:35
Speaker 4: It was the Joe Burrow less Bengals, and they were
9:40
Speaker 4: I want to say they had either inherited the one
9:42
Speaker 4: seed because teams had lost on Sunday, or a win
9:46
Speaker 4: would have put them in the position to be the
9:48
Speaker 4: one seed in the AFC heading into the final few
9:51
Speaker 4: weeks of the year. They lose treffor Lawrence gets injured
9:54
Speaker 4: and they don't win a single game the rest of
9:56
Speaker 4: the way. There were other issues with that team really
9:59
Speaker 4: never really fit the way that I think people were
10:01
Speaker 4: hoping that he was this time last year. The defense,
10:04
Speaker 4: Josh Allen had a great year, but Chervon Walker was good,
10:07
Speaker 4: not great. Secondary had some issues. But we could be
10:10
Speaker 4: sitting here having the same conversation about the teams we're
10:14
Speaker 4: going to mention as trendy teams heading into this season
10:16
Speaker 4: where on paper, you know, you can see a scenario
10:19
Speaker 4: where they everything goes right for them and they are
10:21
Speaker 4: Super Bowl contenders. We just know that historically, typically, unless
10:25
Speaker 4: you're that Seahawks team or that Chiefs team, or you know,
10:28
Speaker 4: other teams in the past, usually something does go wrong.
10:30
Speaker 4: There is something that seems great on paper that doesn't
10:32
Speaker 4: actually play out that well in reality.
10:35
Speaker 1: Hi, Simon, who do you think these these sexy teams
10:39
Speaker 1: are that Bill was referring to?
10:41
Speaker 2: He mentioned three of them.
10:43
Speaker 3: Well, I'm just gonna pick it back what we's saying that.
10:45
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not saying that football has become boring,
10:47
Speaker 3: but I feel like there's guys like Bill out that
10:49
Speaker 3: are so smart now that you know, I like to
10:52
Speaker 3: say that people get things.
10:53
Speaker 5: Wrong all the time.
10:54
Speaker 4: We've been pretty right.
10:55
Speaker 5: Right.
10:55
Speaker 3: The most hypes up team two years ago is the Eagles.
10:57
Speaker 3: They made to the super Bowl last year forty nine
10:59
Speaker 3: ers were I mean, people did not stop them with
11:01
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers in the offseason. Last year they
11:03
Speaker 3: made it the super Bowl. So we've kind of seen
11:05
Speaker 3: it catch up, right. There's so many smart people in
11:07
Speaker 3: the industry now they know what they're talking about. They're
11:09
Speaker 3: gonna nail these teams, and then, unfortunately for them and us,
11:12
Speaker 3: we have to talk about them for five months until
11:13
Speaker 3: the season kicked off. So that's why people are like
11:15
Speaker 3: all these hype teams, and I can nail two of
11:18
Speaker 3: them right at the top because I know easy it
11:19
Speaker 3: is the third one. I'm not going to be so
11:21
Speaker 3: sure about, but I know it's me Houston for one,
11:23
Speaker 3: We've already talked about. They dominated this offseason, adding pieces
11:27
Speaker 3: to that offense, offensive line, defensive line, wide receiver position,
11:31
Speaker 3: the running back position. He's got to have Houston. And
11:34
Speaker 3: then the second one is going to be everyone's favorite pick,
11:36
Speaker 3: right Chad. It's Green Bay. I mean Green Bay. We
11:39
Speaker 3: talked about. They are going to be the all hype team.
11:41
Speaker 3: It's all there. Jordan Love finished the season going eighteen
11:44
Speaker 3: to one touchdown interception ratio. It's like, how can Bill
11:47
Speaker 3: not have them on his list? The third one, I
11:49
Speaker 3: don't know, so I'm excited to hear what that one is.
11:51
Speaker 3: But those will be my two guesses on teams. I
11:53
Speaker 3: feel like they have to be on the list because
11:54
Speaker 3: they're just They're sexy. There they are, and I hope
11:57
Speaker 3: they are in that list.
11:59
Speaker 5: Very stupid from Simon.
12:02
Speaker 2: Simon. Simon is nailing it.
12:04
Speaker 1: And when I read the story, I was I was
12:08
Speaker 1: a little bit bummed when I read the story because
12:12
Speaker 1: I wanted to be surprised and it speaks a little
12:15
Speaker 1: bit to what Simon is talking about. And obviously we
12:18
Speaker 1: haven't named the third team yet. The third team was
12:20
Speaker 1: the same team that everybody was so excited about last
12:24
Speaker 1: year as well, and then kind of met expectations this
12:28
Speaker 1: past year. We're talking about the Lions, So the Lions
12:32
Speaker 1: and the Texans. It's a it's a little like the
12:34
Speaker 1: texts that you can forget about the Lions almost because
12:38
Speaker 1: they met so many of the expectations and they were
12:40
Speaker 1: a sexy team the year before.
12:42
Speaker 2: But Simon's not wrong.
12:44
Speaker 1: Like everybody can see it, like what your philosophy about
12:50
Speaker 1: the sexy team is bringing structure and rigor to an
12:54
Speaker 1: idea that sort of everybody feels that is in the atmosphere,
12:58
Speaker 1: and so I'm glad you you did it, but are
13:01
Speaker 1: also like, it's the same teams everybody's talking about, and
13:06
Speaker 1: they're sexy. It's why they're sexy. But it also makes
13:09
Speaker 1: you feel like I can't back these teams because everybody
13:14
Speaker 1: is back in these teams at this point, so now
13:17
Speaker 1: I got to go against it. The Packers have a
13:20
Speaker 1: significant issue right now. Quote significant. It's the quote s
13:26
Speaker 1: words podcast. Jordan Love isn't practicing and he's not going
13:31
Speaker 1: to practice until he gets a new deal. In your mind,
13:35
Speaker 1: what kind of impact does that have on anything about
13:38
Speaker 1: to do with the Packers' success not.
13:40
Speaker 4: Much, because I really it's hard for me to believe
13:42
Speaker 4: that deal's not going to get done. Jordan Love is
13:44
Speaker 4: in the actual final year of his current contract that
13:47
Speaker 4: he signed as sort of like a hedge almost like
13:51
Speaker 4: he really he didn't get his fift year option picked up,
13:55
Speaker 4: but the Packers also didn't decline it. They sort of
13:57
Speaker 4: found this weird middle ground where they gave a little
14:00
Speaker 4: bit more than what a little bit less than what
14:01
Speaker 4: the fifthye option would have guaranteed him, but we're able
14:04
Speaker 4: to spread it that over two years for cat purposes.
14:08
Speaker 4: It's really unique. There's not really any other players who
14:10
Speaker 4: have done that.
14:11
Speaker 5: And so.
14:12
Speaker 4: What's made this tough in a way is that there's
14:14
Speaker 4: not really comparables. You have that element where you know,
14:18
Speaker 4: like with a Trevor Lawrence contract, it's okay, what are
14:20
Speaker 4: the other quarterbacks after your three kit who are playing
14:22
Speaker 4: at Trevor Lawrence's level, that's not a hard deal to negotiate.
14:25
Speaker 4: This one is because there's not really that contractual comparable.
14:28
Speaker 4: And then in terms of his experience, Jordan Love sat
14:32
Speaker 4: for three years basically before becoming the starter in Green Bay,
14:35
Speaker 4: and the only other quarterback who's really done that happens
14:39
Speaker 4: to be Aaron Rodgers, the guy who proceeded Jordan.
14:42
Speaker 5: Love all those years ago.
14:43
Speaker 4: So it's not there's not that contractual comparable in terms
14:48
Speaker 4: of or the experience comparable, and so it's a little
14:51
Speaker 4: harder to get this done than it would be for
14:52
Speaker 4: other quarterbacks. But I do think this is going to
14:55
Speaker 4: get done for camp even really you know, gets into
14:57
Speaker 4: high gears. So to me, it doesn't it seem like
14:59
Speaker 4: it's going to be a big hindrance to the Packers.
15:02
Speaker 4: If we get to the end of camp, or we're
15:04
Speaker 4: halfway through camp in preseason starting and then he's still
15:07
Speaker 4: not practicing, that's a concern. But I would be surprised
15:10
Speaker 4: if this wasn't done by you know, Arthur at the
15:12
Speaker 4: end of this week or at the latest the end
15:14
Speaker 4: of next week.
15:16
Speaker 2: So here's the question.
15:18
Speaker 1: Yes, take the Packers out of it, Simon. I want
15:20
Speaker 1: your answer on this too. Take the Packers out of it,
15:22
Speaker 1: because I think of the Packers, Lions and Texans, I
15:27
Speaker 1: think the Packers are probably the.
15:28
Speaker 2: Most likely to regress.
15:31
Speaker 1: There's too much there's a lot of sort of noise
15:35
Speaker 1: in all those signals from last year, even Bill, you
15:38
Speaker 1: pointed out in your story like they barely were above
15:43
Speaker 1: that threshold. In fact, they might not have even been above.
15:46
Speaker 1: I think they were only one and a half games
15:48
Speaker 1: above the threshold of what you have sort of established.
15:51
Speaker 1: So we're above their expected win total. I think they
15:55
Speaker 1: were at nine. They were at seven and a half
15:57
Speaker 1: for the expected win total. Someone is going to regress.
16:02
Speaker 2: The Texans in the Lions are not going.
16:03
Speaker 1: To meet in the Super Bowl, right, so you don't know,
16:09
Speaker 1: but you also do know and so and by the way,
16:13
Speaker 1: I'm totally making that bet. I am one hundred percent
16:16
Speaker 1: making a future's bet on the Texans and the Lions.
16:19
Speaker 1: I did this last year. Evan Abrams, our research genius,
16:23
Speaker 1: has a stat that now it's now true for ten
16:26
Speaker 1: of the last eleven years, the teams with the five
16:30
Speaker 1: lowest odds to make the Super Bowl, and they all
16:32
Speaker 1: had to be I think twelve to one or shorter
16:37
Speaker 1: have played each other in the Super Bowl.
16:39
Speaker 2: So I made a round robin bet last year.
16:40
Speaker 1: I had, you know, Chiefs Eagles, Chiefs, Niners, Bengals, Eagles, Bagels, Niners,
16:49
Speaker 1: Bill's Eagles, Bill's Niners. And you know that was one
16:52
Speaker 1: of my bigger pay days of the year because I
16:54
Speaker 1: think it was like thirty to one. But who's more
16:58
Speaker 1: likely to regress, Simon, Lions or Texans.
17:03
Speaker 3: I would go with the Lions just because I do
17:06
Speaker 3: think their division is harder than it was last year.
17:10
Speaker 3: Like they're not going to have her Kirk Cousins injured,
17:12
Speaker 3: They're not gonna have a note adjustin fields. Who's you know,
17:15
Speaker 3: he was kind of banged up and he wasn't playing
17:17
Speaker 3: the highest level. And Green Bay was so improven they
17:20
Speaker 3: really five find their prove until you know, week what nine,
17:23
Speaker 3: week ten? So I could definitely see the Lions. But
17:27
Speaker 3: at the same time, you could say the same thing
17:28
Speaker 3: about the Houston's division. I mean, they're much improved as well.
17:31
Speaker 3: But if I'm just looking at, you know, little chinks
17:34
Speaker 3: in the army that I could believe in, I guess
17:36
Speaker 3: it would be Detroit.
17:36
Speaker 2: But it's really tough.
17:38
Speaker 5: Chad.
17:38
Speaker 3: Like both these teams, I just I can't see either
17:41
Speaker 3: of them not making the PLAYFFS or just they just
17:43
Speaker 3: they've really nailed the off season, both these teams.
17:46
Speaker 4: Bill, I'm gonna I'm gonna make the case for both teams,
17:50
Speaker 4: and I want to hear what you think, Chad, I
17:52
Speaker 4: want your pick between these two. So the Lions had
17:55
Speaker 4: the point differential of a ten win team. They were
17:57
Speaker 4: twelve and five, but they're point differential plug it into
18:00
Speaker 4: a formula that I believe they were well moorriable people
18:02
Speaker 4: came up with back in the day, and they really
18:05
Speaker 4: were more of a ten win team than a twelve
18:07
Speaker 4: win team, and that was a little surprising to me.
18:11
Speaker 4: I think they were a team that, you know, they
18:15
Speaker 4: didn't feel very weak, but you go back and look,
18:18
Speaker 4: I mean, they got blown out by the Ravens in
18:21
Speaker 4: mid season, they lost to the Packers, they lost to
18:25
Speaker 4: the Bears by two touchdowns. They lost to the Cowboys
18:27
Speaker 4: in that game. More realistically, they probably should have won,
18:30
Speaker 4: but they lost to the Cowboys. But there was not
18:31
Speaker 4: that underlying level of the lead performance that comes with
18:35
Speaker 4: other twelve win teams, So that was a concern for me.
18:38
Speaker 4: Simon mentioned the division. Their schedule is tougher. They're playing
18:43
Speaker 4: the first place schedule this year in the NFC norths
18:46
Speaker 4: and that it's a difference. The Texans, on the other hand,
18:49
Speaker 4: ten and seven, so they kind of were about as
18:52
Speaker 4: good as their underlying performance suggested. They had a ton
18:55
Speaker 4: of injuries, especially along the offensive line, which are not
18:57
Speaker 4: likely to recur. But there's this unique thing about the
19:02
Speaker 4: Texans that's different from most of the other sexy teams
19:04
Speaker 4: we would talk about from the past, or most of
19:06
Speaker 4: the other teams we expect to kind of make that breakthrough.
19:09
Speaker 4: You think about the Texans, you think about CJ. Stroud,
19:11
Speaker 4: Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, Nico Collins, Tank Dell. Those are
19:15
Speaker 4: all young players in the prime of their careers, and
19:17
Speaker 4: that's great. They do have a young core around that core. Nickossario,
19:22
Speaker 4: the former Patriots general manager, has really been aggressive in
19:27
Speaker 4: adding free agents, not just this year with Daniel Hunter
19:30
Speaker 4: and guys like that, but really to fill out the roster.
19:32
Speaker 4: Of the last few years, they've been a team that's
19:34
Speaker 4: heavily relied on veteran free agents on short term deals.
19:37
Speaker 4: And so the Packers were the youngest team in football
19:40
Speaker 4: last year. The Lions were one of the five youngest
19:42
Speaker 4: teams in football last year. The Texans, I believe I'd
19:46
Speaker 4: have to get the exact number in front of me.
19:48
Speaker 4: They were on the older side. I think they were
19:50
Speaker 4: one of the ten oldest teams in football a year ago.
19:53
Speaker 4: On a stat by staff basis just strictly who is
19:56
Speaker 4: on the field and how old each player is at
19:58
Speaker 4: that time. So I know the Texans their best players
20:02
Speaker 4: are young, and that's viable because you want those guys
20:04
Speaker 4: to keep improving and that's what typically leads to a
20:06
Speaker 4: breakthrough for some of these trendy teams. But there's a
20:09
Speaker 4: lot of older players surrounding that core, and so I
20:13
Speaker 4: kind of feel like maybe our expectations for the rest
20:17
Speaker 4: of the players around that young core are a little
20:19
Speaker 4: too high. I don't know which are either of those
20:21
Speaker 4: we're convincing. I don't know if you want to believe
20:22
Speaker 4: in either of them, but.
20:23
Speaker 1: Oh I don't need convincing on either one. I have
20:25
Speaker 1: a very specific opinion on this, and it pains me
20:30
Speaker 1: because I love the Detroit Lions.
20:34
Speaker 2: I love the ethos, I.
20:36
Speaker 1: Love Dan Campbell, I love Jared Goff as a comebacks story.
20:41
Speaker 1: I love the way they draft, I love the way
20:44
Speaker 1: they play. But they are also a.
20:48
Speaker 2: Thin line team.
20:50
Speaker 1: And what I mean is every single game they could
20:55
Speaker 1: be a fourth down away. We saw the dichotomy in
20:59
Speaker 1: that championship game against the Niners. Right in the first half,
21:03
Speaker 1: everything's going perfectly they take the right risks, they all
21:05
Speaker 1: go well. In the second half everything's going badly. They
21:09
Speaker 1: take the same risks, it goes badly.
21:11
Speaker 2: And so.
21:14
Speaker 1: The way that their games play, they've got to win
21:18
Speaker 1: a lot of the risky plays in order to achieve
21:22
Speaker 1: at the level that they achieved last year. And I
21:25
Speaker 1: think that makes them ripe for aggression, whereas the Texans
21:29
Speaker 1: to me, have such a higher ceiling. Also because I
21:33
Speaker 1: think CJ. Stroud is better than Jared Goff. I think
21:36
Speaker 1: on the end with Will Anderson, he's equal to Aiden Hutchinson.
21:40
Speaker 1: Now they've added Hunter on the other side, Like, this
21:44
Speaker 1: is a team that has a very good mix. To me,
21:48
Speaker 1: the biggest challenge with them is we talked about the Jaguars.
21:53
Speaker 1: The Jaguars got snake bit in the second half of
21:56
Speaker 1: the year last year. So if Trevor Lawrence all of
21:58
Speaker 1: a sudden is good again, then they're that much more
22:01
Speaker 1: competitive with the Texans. That makes it a lot more challenging.
22:05
Speaker 1: But if you look at me, if you're asking me,
22:08
Speaker 1: the Lions are ripe for regression right now. The Lions
22:13
Speaker 1: twelve to one to win the Super Bowl, the Texans
22:18
Speaker 1: nineteen to one to win the Super Bowl. So I
22:21
Speaker 1: go to you, Simon Hunter, are you more likely to
22:26
Speaker 1: bet the Lions to win the Super Bowl or the
22:29
Speaker 1: Texans to win the Super Bowl?
22:32
Speaker 3: I'm going to go lines, even though it's not a
22:34
Speaker 3: great price, just because I don't need to face my homes.
22:37
Speaker 3: Like we've seen a time with them again, things going
22:39
Speaker 3: to break a certain way where if he's not there,
22:42
Speaker 3: every team in the NFC has a chance now, And yeah,
22:46
Speaker 3: I totally agree with what both of you guys have said,
22:48
Speaker 3: but it is one of those things where they're a
22:51
Speaker 3: high variance team right just because of their coach. So
22:54
Speaker 3: at that number, I honestly think it's a fair price
22:57
Speaker 3: for Houston as well, Like twenty to one nineteen o one,
22:59
Speaker 3: that sounds right for them.
23:02
Speaker 2: I wish it was a little higher.
23:03
Speaker 3: Obviously for the Lions, but twelve to one in a
23:06
Speaker 3: no Mahomes conference like, that's a good price to me.
23:10
Speaker 1: By the way, Simon, you and I have been banging
23:12
Speaker 1: on the Bengals since early in the offseason when they
23:16
Speaker 1: were in the plus twenty two to one category. They
23:21
Speaker 1: are now thirteen to one.
23:23
Speaker 2: They the shortest.
23:25
Speaker 1: Odds ahead of the Buffalo Bills. Bill do you have
23:30
Speaker 1: an opinion on the Bengals.
23:32
Speaker 5: I love the Bengals.
23:33
Speaker 4: I think they are super underrated. I don't know that
23:36
Speaker 4: I agree with Joe Burrow that he's been forgotten, but
23:39
Speaker 4: I do believe that the Bengals are a team that
23:44
Speaker 4: last year kind of everything that could have gone wrong.
23:46
Speaker 4: I mean, Burrow was hurt heading into the year. It
23:49
Speaker 4: was only really healthy for a couple of weeks in
23:51
Speaker 4: the defense. Really, you know, I thought like they were
23:55
Speaker 4: limited with what they could do because of the changes
23:57
Speaker 4: they made. So they as part of you know, accounting
24:00
Speaker 4: for Burrow's contract, which was going to grow dramatically after
24:03
Speaker 4: he signed his deal, they sort of prepared to lose
24:06
Speaker 4: move on from players, like they let Jesse Bates, their
24:08
Speaker 4: star safety go. They let Von Bell and other very
24:10
Speaker 4: talented starting safety go and they used young players to
24:13
Speaker 4: replace those guys, and they weren't up to the task.
24:16
Speaker 4: Blue Annaarumo, they're really talented defensive coordinator to such a
24:19
Speaker 4: good job of coming up with exotic blitzes, exotic pressures.
24:22
Speaker 4: You know, he'll play, he'll blit seven to one play,
24:24
Speaker 4: he'll drop aiden to coverage on the next and to
24:26
Speaker 4: do that, you have to have a back end, you trust,
24:28
Speaker 4: you have to have safeties who can play both spots,
24:31
Speaker 4: safeties who can cover half the field, who can play
24:33
Speaker 4: center field. And they didn't have that last year, and
24:36
Speaker 4: so it led to too many big plays and they
24:38
Speaker 4: had to be more vanilla on defense. This year, they
24:40
Speaker 4: bring back Von Bell, they spend you know, Stone away
24:43
Speaker 4: from the Ravens. Now they have that ability to be
24:45
Speaker 4: more creative on the defensive side of the ball. And
24:47
Speaker 4: that's the only thing in the playoffs historically, well two things.
24:50
Speaker 4: Either Mahomes that does not have his entire offensive line
24:54
Speaker 4: and the Buccaneers can blitz them and win easily, or
24:57
Speaker 4: you slow him down as a post that processor that
25:00
Speaker 4: to the comeback in the second half for the Bengals
25:02
Speaker 4: in the AFC Championship Game a few years ago. Now,
25:04
Speaker 4: I have a question for you guys, Besse, I trust you,
25:06
Speaker 4: I respect you. I feel like this is a we
25:09
Speaker 4: can have a more thoughtful conversation than just strictly the
25:12
Speaker 4: sexy picks for twenty twenty four. Here's my question for
25:16
Speaker 4: you both. If you had to pick the sexy or
25:20
Speaker 4: trendy team that we're going to be having this conversation
25:24
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five about who's that team.
25:29
Speaker 1: We're going to get to that answer right after this
25:31
Speaker 1: message from game Time. Simon, can you name the fastest
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Speaker 5: Game Time?
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Speaker 1: first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices gear run te.
26:20
Speaker 1: I love Burnwall's question. There's only one team that is
26:23
Speaker 1: the right answer. But Simon, I'll let you. I'll let you.
26:27
Speaker 2: Give an answer, and then I'll give the right answer.
26:29
Speaker 3: I wont still chests. We're on the same page of
26:31
Speaker 3: that one. So I'll go instead of NFC, I'll go AFC.
26:33
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Colts. I'm really drinking the
26:36
Speaker 3: cool it. I love stiching, and you know, Chad knows.
26:39
Speaker 3: I'm a big believe for Anthony Richardson if he does
26:41
Speaker 3: take that next step right because we only saw a
26:43
Speaker 3: little bit of it, but I love what we saw,
26:45
Speaker 3: like him picking his time to run with like third
26:48
Speaker 3: design plays everything about the Colts. I mean, pidman and
26:52
Speaker 3: historically underrated as a wide receiver, I think he's incredible.
26:54
Speaker 3: Third D line has a rotation of a bunch of
26:56
Speaker 3: no name guys. They're all good though, they all can
26:58
Speaker 3: get pressure, and their detached are solid. To me, it's
27:01
Speaker 3: all there for the cold team that if they shocked
27:04
Speaker 3: the one they won that division, I could easily see
27:06
Speaker 3: them being the darling next year. I mean, just as
27:08
Speaker 3: body type two that Cam Newton look like that big,
27:11
Speaker 3: strong athletic runner we love. I mean, it's just visually
27:14
Speaker 3: pleasing to us. So I'll go to AFC. Chad, go ahead.
27:18
Speaker 2: I was gonna say that.
27:19
Speaker 3: I mean, there's no doubt that's a team we got
27:21
Speaker 3: to talk about Go ahead, Chad.
27:23
Speaker 1: It's the Bears, bill, How is it not the Bears,
27:28
Speaker 1: Like what they're going to do this year with Caleb Williams,
27:32
Speaker 1: what they're going to do with Roma DOONSDA, what they
27:35
Speaker 1: can do with a revamped defense. It is a critical year,
27:40
Speaker 1: like if they end up having to blow up the
27:44
Speaker 1: coaching staff, and I don't know what's sort of the
27:49
Speaker 1: line of demarcation or what the criteria to put her
27:53
Speaker 1: in corporate speak, with the KPIs are going to be
27:56
Speaker 1: for that coaching staff to be able to keep their
27:59
Speaker 1: job into the next season.
28:02
Speaker 2: But how could it not be the Bears.
28:06
Speaker 4: Well, the Bears are the team I expected Chad to pick.
28:10
Speaker 4: I know this podcast thoughts about the Bears. I know
28:13
Speaker 4: this is a known Bears loving podcast going back to
28:17
Speaker 4: last year as well.
28:18
Speaker 2: I am nothing if not predictable.
28:20
Speaker 4: Well that is fine. I think the Bears are a
28:22
Speaker 4: very very reasonable pick.
28:24
Speaker 2: And I do have another team though, but I want.
28:27
Speaker 4: To have the team I was going to say, it's
28:29
Speaker 4: not the Bears or the culture. I think both those
28:31
Speaker 4: picks are very solid. I think the Bears are a
28:34
Speaker 4: good pick because I think the Bears are likely to improve,
28:37
Speaker 4: but not be a super Bowl caliber team, Like they're
28:41
Speaker 4: going to be just good enough that people can see
28:44
Speaker 4: the Caleb Williams magic happening. They can say, Okay, you
28:47
Speaker 4: know we're gonna sitting here next offseason.
28:48
Speaker 2: Man.
28:49
Speaker 4: The Bears finally addressed their offensive line. They went out
28:52
Speaker 4: and drafted a tackle in the first round. They added
28:54
Speaker 4: that other edge rusher next to Montest Sweat. They finally
28:57
Speaker 4: got the pieces they need. They went nine, they went
29:00
Speaker 4: eight and nine, and they went they went nine and eight.
29:02
Speaker 4: They went nine and eight, but they won six of
29:04
Speaker 4: their last eight games. Caleb Williams had fourteen touchdowns against
29:08
Speaker 4: two picks in that stretch. This is going to be
29:10
Speaker 4: a team that takes that leap. I don't. I think
29:12
Speaker 4: that's a very reasonable and even likely scenario. But there's
29:16
Speaker 4: a team that nobody is talking about right now, and
29:21
Speaker 4: I don't understand it because we've seen it work before.
29:25
Speaker 4: Do you know who it is?
29:26
Speaker 2: Well, is it the Arizona Cardinals.
29:29
Speaker 4: It's not.
29:30
Speaker 5: It's not the Arizona Cardinals.
29:31
Speaker 4: Okay, we're talking about this team even less than the
29:34
Speaker 4: Arizona Cardinals. And I don't understand why this team is
29:37
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Chargers Chad and Simon ah Arger Idea
29:44
Speaker 4: who have a head coach in Jim Harbaugh who took
29:47
Speaker 4: over a Niners team that have not had a winning
29:49
Speaker 4: season in eight years and went thirteen and three. The
29:52
Speaker 4: quarterback of the team is Alex Smith, who the fans
29:54
Speaker 4: were chanting we want David Carr at the year before
29:58
Speaker 4: he left in three agency did not want to go.
30:00
Speaker 4: Harbaugh brought him back and they won thirteen games. They
30:04
Speaker 4: immediately improved. The Chargers have Justin Herbert. They have a
30:09
Speaker 4: quarterback who I think we all love. He has had
30:12
Speaker 4: his ifty games here were there, But like I don't
30:14
Speaker 4: need to sell you on Justin Herbert playing at a
30:16
Speaker 4: high level. They were a team that greatly underperformed their
30:20
Speaker 4: point differential last year five and twelve with a seven
30:23
Speaker 4: point differential. Even though the Raiders dropped like one hundred
30:25
Speaker 4: and seventeen points on them in December, there was still
30:29
Speaker 4: much below expectations. They're getting a massive coaching upgrade, their
30:33
Speaker 4: quarterback is playing at a high level. They massively improved
30:36
Speaker 4: their offensive line this offseason. They're not a sexy pick
30:40
Speaker 4: right now, but would you not see a scenario where
30:44
Speaker 4: they go nine and eight or ten and seven next year,
30:48
Speaker 4: and we're sitting saying, man, they got an elite coach,
30:50
Speaker 4: they have an elite quarterback. They finally got the defensive
30:53
Speaker 4: pieces they needed next to Jolly Bosa and Khalil Mack.
30:56
Speaker 4: They improved in the secondary. Hardbaugh's got them going. They
30:59
Speaker 4: they beat the let's pick on a team, they beat
31:02
Speaker 4: the Ravens, and the postseason they beat the Ravens in
31:05
Speaker 4: Baltimore in the wildcard round. They lost to by three
31:08
Speaker 4: points to the Chiefs and the division roun But they'd
31:11
Speaker 4: not be a team you see as a sexy pick
31:12
Speaker 4: next year.
31:13
Speaker 1: Completely, can totally see it. The challenge I have with
31:18
Speaker 1: with AFC teams is the quarterback lineup is just stacked, right,
31:25
Speaker 1: So Patrick Mahomes is going to be Tom Brady esque, Right,
31:29
Speaker 1: It's always going to be something no matter what is
31:32
Speaker 1: happening with the talents on his team, You're always going
31:34
Speaker 1: to have to beat.
31:35
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, all right.
31:37
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson now a two time MVP, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow,
31:44
Speaker 1: who is the only guy who can beat Patrick Mahomes, Like,
31:48
Speaker 1: you go up and down without that lineup? And the
31:51
Speaker 1: AFC is loaded and in the NFC there's more of
31:55
Speaker 1: a chance to be sexy because there's fewer teams and
32:00
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that are sexy. So to me, I would lean
32:03
Speaker 1: NFC teams. That's why I also I was I thought
32:07
Speaker 1: you might say the Cardinals because they showed some promise
32:11
Speaker 1: last year and I was impressed with how much heart
32:15
Speaker 1: they had and with the way Kyler Murray played with
32:17
Speaker 1: that team, and they got better and they got more talented.
32:20
Speaker 1: So that's why I thought, like, h, the Cardinals could
32:22
Speaker 1: be interesting in what is generally a weaker conference, no.
32:26
Speaker 4: Question, And that's a really valid argument for the teams
32:29
Speaker 4: in the ANFC. I think the you know, a team
32:31
Speaker 4: like the Panthers, who I'm not high on, but like
32:34
Speaker 4: if Bryke hung totally turns things around, they could be
32:36
Speaker 4: that team because there's the division is so weak. But
32:38
Speaker 4: I would point out c J. Stroud like, who would
32:40
Speaker 4: have thought a year ago, Yeah, that's sitting here having
32:43
Speaker 4: a conversation. All those quarterbacks were there. We were more
32:47
Speaker 4: high on Lawrence when they were a year ago. We
32:49
Speaker 4: were more high on Herbert a year ago than we
32:51
Speaker 4: are now, and CJ. Stroud still managed to break through.
32:54
Speaker 4: So I feel like, if you get the right caliber
32:56
Speaker 4: of quarterback, and I think Justin Herbert can be that guy.
32:59
Speaker 4: You're going to get sort of admitted to that club
33:02
Speaker 4: where even if you're not you don't have Mahomes, you
33:04
Speaker 4: would still have a quarterback who can beat Mahomes on
33:06
Speaker 4: his best day. And I think Justin Herbert are showing
33:08
Speaker 4: you can do that in the years past.
33:10
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting, Simon, we have not mentioned the
33:16
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys once, and Bill, who was excited to be
33:21
Speaker 1: an ESPN personality, might have his ESPN personality badge taken
33:25
Speaker 1: away because we have not mentioned the Cowboys as a
33:30
Speaker 1: sexy team this year or as a sexy team for
33:34
Speaker 1: the future. Why do you think they don't qualify to
33:37
Speaker 1: be a sexy team now and into the future.
33:41
Speaker 3: Ah, I mean, there's a bunch of reasons. I think
33:44
Speaker 3: I think everyone's come around Chad. Right, Even last year
33:47
Speaker 3: people were still drinking the dak cool. They they're like,
33:49
Speaker 3: you know what, you can't fault them for all their
33:51
Speaker 3: woes in the playoffs everything like that. After last year,
33:54
Speaker 3: those people are totally off the boat, right. You don't
33:56
Speaker 3: hear those people at all, just because those pick sixes,
34:00
Speaker 3: we're so alarming and so not Dak, Like you just
34:02
Speaker 3: don't see Dak play that way where he just looked
34:05
Speaker 3: totally lost throwing balls over the middle in a triple coverage.
34:08
Speaker 3: It was really it was bizarre. So to me, they're
34:12
Speaker 3: not sexy just because I think people have been burned
34:15
Speaker 3: so hard. And we've never had a team that has
34:20
Speaker 3: they're all Pro number one receiver not signed for the future,
34:23
Speaker 3: and then they're all Pro number one quarterback not signed
34:26
Speaker 3: for the future. We've never seen this chat at least
34:28
Speaker 3: I can't remember my lifetime a team that has the
34:30
Speaker 3: guy quarterback the guy receiver and both of them are
34:33
Speaker 3: playing on their final year their deal. In we've never
34:35
Speaker 3: seen a quarterback like Dak. Well, I guess Kirk Cousins
34:38
Speaker 3: had the power, but Dak did something crazy to this contract,
34:41
Speaker 3: which I would love to help hear.
34:42
Speaker 4: Bill's take on.
34:44
Speaker 3: Dak's contract cannot be tagged when his contract runs out
34:47
Speaker 3: the end of this season, which means Dak, if he
34:49
Speaker 3: doesn't want to sign a contract for sixty million per year,
34:52
Speaker 3: he can go test the market. There is not a
34:54
Speaker 3: thing Dallas can do. And if he does do this,
34:57
Speaker 3: I mean again, Bill can check this. I think it's
34:59
Speaker 3: fifty million. It's to cap dead cap next year. Like,
35:03
Speaker 3: that's that's the power Dak has right now over the Cowboys.
35:06
Speaker 3: So I would love her Bill's take on it because
35:08
Speaker 3: it's we've never seen anything like this, and this is
35:11
Speaker 3: the lowest I feel like the public perception is on
35:13
Speaker 3: the Cowboys since Dak's been there at the quarterback position.
35:16
Speaker 4: Yeah, leverage is a juicy thing when it comes to
35:20
Speaker 4: NFL contract Some would say some would say, quote unquote sexy.
35:25
Speaker 4: The leverage is a very valuable thing because it's it
35:29
Speaker 4: forces teams to do things they don't necessarily want to do.
35:32
Speaker 4: When Dak signed his last deal a few years ago,
35:34
Speaker 4: remember he signed if he played on a franchise tag
35:36
Speaker 4: the year he got hurt, and then the following year
35:39
Speaker 4: he was going to play in a second franchise tag.
35:41
Speaker 4: If the Cowboys didn't sign him, which would have been
35:43
Speaker 4: the following year, he would have become a free agent.
35:45
Speaker 4: Teams can franchise guys three times technically, but in reality
35:49
Speaker 4: it is not something that teams do in practice. It
35:51
Speaker 4: would have been an astronomical sum for Dak. So really
35:55
Speaker 4: he was one year away from the exact situation he
35:57
Speaker 4: is now unrestricted free agency Cowboys using him for nothing,
36:00
Speaker 4: and the Cowboys capitulated for all to talk about what
36:03
Speaker 4: they didn't want to do. They didn't want to pay
36:04
Speaker 4: him forty million dollars a year, they didn't want to
36:06
Speaker 4: give him any any no franchise tags. They got to
36:09
Speaker 4: give him everything he wanted because he had all that leverage.
36:12
Speaker 4: And now he's in an even more advantageous spot this
36:15
Speaker 4: time around. He has all that money to work with.
36:18
Speaker 4: He has, you know, it doesn't need It's like he
36:20
Speaker 4: needs life changing money. He already has that from this
36:22
Speaker 4: last deal. He has the ability to push this all
36:24
Speaker 4: the way to free agency if he's so inclined. And
36:27
Speaker 4: that has the Cowboys trapped, like they can't go out
36:30
Speaker 4: and sign a bunch of free agents because they don't
36:32
Speaker 4: know if they're going to need to have that have
36:33
Speaker 4: sixty million dollars for Dak next year. They haven't been
36:36
Speaker 4: able to get the CD lambkiel done, they have not
36:38
Speaker 4: been able to get the Micro Parsons deal done, and
36:40
Speaker 4: Parsons is eligible for a deal this offseason because they
36:44
Speaker 4: don't know what they're going to have to do about Dak,
36:47
Speaker 4: and so that's fundamentally changed their offseason. They have not
36:51
Speaker 4: been able to go out and sign anybody. Their two
36:53
Speaker 4: free agent signings this year Ezekiel Elliott, who is by
36:57
Speaker 4: by running back years, forty nine years old. I think
37:00
Speaker 4: in the NFL your is hundred thirty, which is sad.
37:02
Speaker 4: But and they signed Eric Kendrick Say, a veteran linebacker's
37:05
Speaker 4: been a cap casualty each of the last two seasons.
37:07
Speaker 4: But he knows Mike Singer's defense, their new defensive coordinator.
37:10
Speaker 4: So I think they're not sexy because you've seen a
37:12
Speaker 4: lot of talent leave the organization, very little talent come
37:15
Speaker 4: into the organization. And you know, I think Simon's pointing
37:19
Speaker 4: out the playoff issues are valid. I mean, put it
37:21
Speaker 4: this way, how many people heading into the NFL season
37:26
Speaker 4: remember that Dak Prescott was second in MVP balloting last season.
37:32
Speaker 4: That's how good he was last year, and how much
37:35
Speaker 4: of that was washed away by how bad he and
37:38
Speaker 4: the Cowboys were in the postseason. The only reason I'm
37:41
Speaker 4: optimistic about the Cowboys this year is that I am
37:44
Speaker 4: pessimistic about everybody else in the NFC East. But if
37:48
Speaker 4: the Eagles are better than I think, I'm very skeptical
37:51
Speaker 4: of the Eagles. I would not think that there's any
37:54
Speaker 4: reason to back the Cowboys because they're the opposite of
37:57
Speaker 4: a sexy pick, Like they're the pick that you you
38:00
Speaker 4: keep around because you're used to what they look like
38:02
Speaker 4: and you don't have to worry about dressing up and
38:03
Speaker 4: putting on airs for them.
38:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, it did feel like the Cowboys last year. A
38:07
Speaker 1: lot of it was not smoking mirrors, but lacking in substance,
38:14
Speaker 1: sort of making it happen when the moments weren't the
38:18
Speaker 1: most important, and Dak lighting it up in a way
38:22
Speaker 1: that felt to me superficial. Right, And what we saw
38:28
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, I think is what we all expected
38:30
Speaker 1: to see. I don't know a single person who wasn't
38:33
Speaker 1: betting against the Cowboys and betting the Packers at plus
38:36
Speaker 1: seven in that in that first round game, it was such.
38:40
Speaker 3: An plus, like was an up plus. It was like
38:42
Speaker 3: plus eight or nine at open and I think it
38:44
Speaker 3: did get down a plus.
38:45
Speaker 2: It got down to seven.
38:46
Speaker 5: It was just everyone it was.
38:49
Speaker 2: It was ridiculous.
38:50
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys are so interesting for all these reasons.
38:53
Speaker 1: They are always going to be talking points. But Jerry Jones,
38:56
Speaker 1: what kind of messes he created as a GM that
39:00
Speaker 1: he gets himself in this situation with Dak.
39:01
Speaker 2: They can't improve the team.
39:03
Speaker 1: He keeps Mike McCarthy, He kept Jason Garrett forever for
39:07
Speaker 1: all his sort of Hall of Fame accolades as a genius,
39:11
Speaker 1: as someone who has turned the Cowboys into the most
39:14
Speaker 1: powerful and valuable franchise in all the sports. Feels like
39:18
Speaker 1: the guy kind of doesn't know what he's doing. He's
39:20
Speaker 1: putting together a team.
39:22
Speaker 4: I mean, owners can be stubborn, rich people. They don't
39:26
Speaker 4: get told no a lot, and so I believe with
39:29
Speaker 4: Jerry Jones there's an element of like having to fight
39:34
Speaker 4: him as an organization, right like like in some ways,
39:36
Speaker 4: the Cowboys are a very modern and progressive organization. They
39:40
Speaker 4: are a team that drafts really well historically year after year.
39:45
Speaker 4: They're a team that has heavy investments and analytics. They're
39:48
Speaker 4: a team that has really produced a lot of young talent.
39:51
Speaker 4: But at the same time that can not always be
39:55
Speaker 4: the case if you have a meddlesome shall we say,
39:58
Speaker 4: owner who wants to make decisions when it comes to football.
40:01
Speaker 4: And I think about the classic one, the famous argument
40:04
Speaker 4: between Jerry Jones and his sons and the staff about
40:07
Speaker 4: whether they should draft Johnny Manziel in the first round
40:11
Speaker 4: all those years ago, they talked Jerry Jones out of it.
40:14
Speaker 4: They drafted Zach Martin, who was going to be a
40:16
Speaker 4: Hall of Fame guard for the Cowboys, who's played there
40:19
Speaker 4: have been incredible there for a decade. That's kind of
40:23
Speaker 4: the thing you have to do. And every real NFL
40:26
Speaker 4: organization pretty much has to have a moment like that
40:30
Speaker 4: with their owner here and there. Owners, even the most
40:34
Speaker 4: hands off owners, they find they watch a guy one
40:36
Speaker 4: time in college, they like him. They see a guy
40:39
Speaker 4: during the draft and they like him. Like there's plenty
40:41
Speaker 4: of things. Plenty of times this stuff happens, and being
40:43
Speaker 4: a good GM is talking your owner out of some
40:45
Speaker 4: bad decisions. But Jerry Jones is the owner and the GM,
40:50
Speaker 4: and so he has the not only the clout and
40:52
Speaker 4: the ability, but also the self confidence after winning all
40:55
Speaker 4: those Super Bowls early in his run to think that
40:57
Speaker 4: his decisions are always going to be right. And so
41:01
Speaker 4: at some point Jerry goes to the organization it says, Okay,
41:04
Speaker 4: we have to get this DAC deal done. Do whatever
41:06
Speaker 4: it takes to get it done. The problem, he's done
41:08
Speaker 4: that too late, and so that is sort of the
41:11
Speaker 4: conuntry and the cowboys find themselves in is. I think
41:14
Speaker 4: if the people who are not Jerry Jones in that
41:16
Speaker 4: front office wanted to get this Dak deal done, they
41:19
Speaker 4: would have done it two years ago. They would have
41:21
Speaker 4: done it last year before it got to this point
41:23
Speaker 4: where they had no leverage, where they could not go
41:25
Speaker 4: out and improve the roster. And because Jerry Jones sort
41:29
Speaker 4: of decided that he didn't want to pay back until
41:31
Speaker 4: the last possible second, because he decided he wanted to
41:33
Speaker 4: wait for all these other wide receiver contracts to get
41:36
Speaker 4: done before he gave cd Lamb the contract Cede Lamb once,
41:39
Speaker 4: it's going to cost them extra money it is. It's
41:45
Speaker 4: over confidence. It's over confidence and well, you know, I'm
41:49
Speaker 4: gonna make them wait. It's just not thinking prudently about
41:53
Speaker 4: the finances of an NFL team and the finances of
41:55
Speaker 4: building an NFL team. Jerry Jones has all the money.
41:58
Speaker 4: The issue is not paying those guys he could afford
41:59
Speaker 4: to pay them. It's just the reality of wanting to
42:03
Speaker 4: make certain players on this roster wait until the last
42:06
Speaker 4: possible second to get a deal done. Whether that's you
42:08
Speaker 4: brist whether that's confidence. Whether it's fullhardedness or a full hardedness,
42:11
Speaker 4: I can't say. But it has cost the Cowboys already
42:14
Speaker 4: cost them on this current dact deal, and it's going
42:16
Speaker 4: to cost them a a lot more if Dak leaves
42:18
Speaker 4: in free agency.
42:21
Speaker 1: One more team I want to ask you about, because
42:23
Speaker 1: every year every Better knows they want to bet on
42:27
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers over season win total. It always ends
42:31
Speaker 1: up in that eight and a half range. Mike Tomlin
42:35
Speaker 1: always pulls it out of the bag somehow. Bill Barnwell,
42:39
Speaker 1: is this the year where the Steelers finally don't go
42:43
Speaker 1: over their season win total?
42:45
Speaker 4: I hope so, because I'm going to pick them to
42:47
Speaker 4: be a team that declines this upcoming season. They just
42:50
Speaker 4: exhaust me because like every year I make this argument
42:54
Speaker 4: for why they're going to decline, every year, they do
42:57
Speaker 4: exactly what I'm saying on the field, and then they
43:00
Speaker 4: still managed to find a different way to put it off.
43:02
Speaker 4: Last two years ago, I was like, Okay, like they
43:05
Speaker 4: got an incredible season out of TJ. Watt. There's no
43:07
Speaker 4: way he's gonna be that good again if he gets
43:09
Speaker 4: hurt there in trouble, TJ watckets hurt in like Week two,
43:11
Speaker 4: I'm like, okay, this is great. I know I don't
43:13
Speaker 4: want to skinerwack get hurt, but like, okay, I know
43:15
Speaker 4: what I'm talking about. Steelers are going to struggle. They
43:17
Speaker 4: don't have Ben Roethlisberger and they still went nine to
43:20
Speaker 4: seven in one last year. It was okay. People are
43:23
Speaker 4: too excited about the offense. You know. Kenny Pickett, I
43:25
Speaker 4: know people think he's an MVP because I have some
43:27
Speaker 4: preseason stats. He's not that good. Kem Hayward is in
43:30
Speaker 4: his thirties. He might not be the same guy. Ken
43:33
Speaker 4: Heard gets hurt, Kenny Pickett stinks. They still go ten
43:36
Speaker 4: and seven and they've managed to do something that I
43:41
Speaker 4: don't understand how it's possible, because, like in theory, guess
43:47
Speaker 4: you want to be a team that protects the football.
43:49
Speaker 4: That's a smart way to win games. But it's hard
43:51
Speaker 4: to do, especially if you don't have an Aaron Rodgers
43:53
Speaker 4: or a Tom Brady at quarterback. The Steelers managed to
43:57
Speaker 4: win the turnover battle with Mitchell Trubisky as their quarterback,
44:00
Speaker 4: with Mason Rudolph as their quarterback, and that's the only
44:03
Speaker 4: way they've won games. I think they are, like I
44:05
Speaker 4: think they're literally winless over the last three years. When
44:09
Speaker 4: they don't have they don't win the turnover battle, but
44:11
Speaker 4: they're like fifteen and four when they do. And let's say,
44:15
Speaker 4: credit is a great coaching, a credit to knowing your
44:17
Speaker 4: limitations on offense, to having a great defense. But this
44:22
Speaker 4: team is just not that good. Their schedule is tough.
44:25
Speaker 4: Tomlin had no ability to win a bunch of his
44:28
Speaker 4: close games before the last couple of years. Their quarterback situation,
44:31
Speaker 4: they're starting to cast off from two different organizations. They
44:35
Speaker 4: got rid of Deontay Johnson for cap reasons. Their offensive
44:38
Speaker 4: line is just okay. Their defense is old. I think
44:40
Speaker 4: the oldest in football last year. Have some young sage
44:43
Speaker 4: pieces and enjoying Porter and counter in Benton. But like this,
44:48
Speaker 4: if Mike Toma was not coaching this team, they'd have
44:51
Speaker 4: a six and a half win total. Probably we'd be
44:52
Speaker 4: I guess. And that is a testament to how good
44:55
Speaker 4: my Tomlin is, but also just how underwhelming this team
44:58
Speaker 4: looks at paper. I'm going to if you trust the numbers,
45:01
Speaker 4: it's got to be right. Before the Packers defied me
45:04
Speaker 4: for a couple of years with the Aaron Rodgers era,
45:06
Speaker 4: they finally went my way. Tennessee under Mike Vrabel for
45:10
Speaker 4: a couple of years, just just absolutely breaking my brain.
45:13
Speaker 4: Eventually they had that losing streak in the second half
45:15
Speaker 4: of twenty two, they got right. I feel like the
45:17
Speaker 4: Steelers can't pull this off, but they keep proving me wrong.
45:21
Speaker 4: So I'm getting really frustrated about this entire Look.
45:24
Speaker 1: We last week, we had Nick Giffen and Sean Kerner
45:28
Speaker 1: on the podcast, and they will establish the Luck Rankings,
45:32
Speaker 1: which is this brilliant methodology and formula that basically baselines
45:42
Speaker 1: luck out of the equation and tells you what teams
45:46
Speaker 1: should have done in a game and what they did
45:49
Speaker 1: because of the luck factors in the game. And we
45:53
Speaker 1: were talking about the Steelers, and all we did last
45:57
Speaker 1: year was talking about how anemic their offense is and
45:59
Speaker 1: how terrible their offenses. The Steelers also had more explosive
46:04
Speaker 1: plays than anybody else in football, and so that's why
46:08
Speaker 1: they were getting to those wins. But the problem is
46:12
Speaker 1: that's what happens for them every single year.
46:15
Speaker 2: Simon.
46:16
Speaker 1: Every year, the Steelers will have that freakish explosive play,
46:19
Speaker 1: that freakish interception return for a touchdown, that freakish force
46:23
Speaker 1: fumble in the three straight games that TJ wat plays
46:26
Speaker 1: between his bicep injury and his hamstring injury, Like it
46:31
Speaker 1: just freaking happens, Yes or no, Simon, Are you over
46:36
Speaker 1: the Steelers? Are you under the Steelers and their win total?
46:40
Speaker 3: I am finally after I think I talked about a
46:42
Speaker 3: good ten year run of always take on the Rover.
46:43
Speaker 4: I am finally on the under this year. And it's
46:45
Speaker 4: what Bill just talked about.
46:46
Speaker 3: I think last year that had an incredible amount of
46:48
Speaker 3: luck about the quarterbacks that got injured in the division
46:51
Speaker 3: when they played those certain teams. This year, it doesn't
46:54
Speaker 3: feel that way right. Their division is even harder this year,
46:57
Speaker 3: and their their schedule is brutal. If you go through
46:59
Speaker 3: a look at their skins, it's just a brutal line
47:01
Speaker 3: up and just the way that the schedule plays out
47:03
Speaker 3: for them, it's brutal. So finally chat on Under on
47:06
Speaker 3: a Tomlin team for the first time in my professional career.
47:10
Speaker 2: We have consensus.
47:11
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