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China Is Winning the Global Power Shift — America Is Running Out of Options | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Our guest today, none other than Carl Zapp, will argue
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: that the U.S. isn't just losing ground. It might be
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: completely locked out. So let's find out. And let me
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: bring my dear friend, Carl. Hi, Carl.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Hi, David.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Good to see you, man. As always, to those who
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: might be here for the first time, if you don't
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  Speaker 1: know Carl, he is the host of the Silk and
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Steel podcast. I highly recommend it. you to go and
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: listen and watch that. It's about the history, because it
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: focuses on the history, the culture, China, and politics, all
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: in one setting. And China, I mean, Carl has been
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: doing this for quite a while, so I highly, highly
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  Speaker 1: recommend it for you. All right, Carl, we're going to
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  Speaker 1: have to, there's a lot to cover, by the way.
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  Speaker 1: So I'm going to want to start with what's going
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  Speaker 1: on now with the negotiations between Bangladesh and China regarding
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: The former Bangladesh wanted to buy 20 Chinese Chengdu J10CE.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: What is this all about?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, they had a demo. They had a
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  Speaker 2: pretty good demo last year when Pakistan's Air Force used
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  Speaker 2: China's J10CE to shoot down India's Rafale. Rafale jets, which
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: are very good French jets, by the way, but you know,
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  Speaker 2: J-10C apparently performed better. And now, you know, that was
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  Speaker 2: really the best marketing for China's J-10C on the world market.
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  Speaker 2: Now Pakistan, not only Pakistan has them, Uzbekistan also unveiled
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  Speaker 2: their fleet of J-10C, which they took delivery last year.
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  Speaker 2: And now Bangladesh is joining the club. Now, there's a
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  Speaker 2: pattern here. All these countries are neighbors of India. They're
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  Speaker 2: all surrounding India.
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  Speaker 1: We know what it means. We know what it means.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, because India had doubled down on purchasing
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: of the French Rafale jets, so... The Indian neighbors are like, okay, well,
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  Speaker 2: we'll just get J10C then. We know how to deal
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  Speaker 2: with that problem. And, you know, like the Chinese product,
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese jet included, they are very good for their money.
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  Speaker 2: You know, like the amount of money that India could
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  Speaker 2: use to purchase the Rafale program, you know, you could...
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  Speaker 2: You could procure multiple times of J10C. You know, this
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  Speaker 2: is why these other countries are choosing them right now.
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  Speaker 1: Well, that's true because I also know that the Chinese
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  Speaker 1: will not sell the J20 stealth fighters. Those are very advanced.
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  Speaker 1: And I can understand why because it's technology that is
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: not sort of available to everybody. And I can see why.
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  Speaker 1: But the fact, like you mentioned earlier, that India's neighbors
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  Speaker 1: are purchasing the Chinese weapons, it tells you as to
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  Speaker 1: where China is headed regarding the Southeast Asia. Will it
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  Speaker 1: be fair to say, Carl, that now we can conclusively
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: state that China is now the dominant arms supplier in
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  Speaker 1: India's neighboring countries?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, right now, the biggest top three, the
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  Speaker 2: biggest top two is still US and Russia, right? But
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  Speaker 2: China is starting to close in ranks. China is still
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  Speaker 2: a distant third compared to the numbers that the United
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  Speaker 2: States and Russia are racking up. But now more people
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  Speaker 2: are paying attention. to the Chinese weaponry. And this is
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  Speaker 2: the trend will likely to continue. You know, for example,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the Rafale system that was sold to India,
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  Speaker 2: they didn't, the French, they held back. They didn't give the,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the most advanced version, which is normal. And
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  Speaker 2: also they didn't give the, the India, the most advanced
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  Speaker 2: missile that to go along with Rafale, the meteor missile. But, but,
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  Speaker 2: Pakistan did receive a pretty good variant of the PL series.
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  Speaker 2: And as it's been proven, Pakistan was able to use
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  Speaker 2: a J-10C to shoot down Rafale outside of the visual range.
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  Speaker 2: Meaning these two aircraft never, the pilots never saw each other.
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  Speaker 2: They only saw a blip on the radar and press
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  Speaker 2: the button and it hit. And that's a reality of
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  Speaker 2: the modern aircraft. air airfare uh air air warfare you
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: know yeah the top gun that's for hollywood that's for
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  Speaker 2: movies not gonna be dog fight with like f-18s right
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  Speaker 2: i mean it's just not a lot of the fight
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  Speaker 2: will be decided before the airplanes even come into visual
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  Speaker 2: range of each other.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah well you're absolutely correct because i uh I'm going
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  Speaker 1: to disclose this one here. I just completed my book
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  Speaker 1: about China and I devoted an entire section onto the
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  Speaker 1: military capabilities for the Chinese. And I am not talking
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  Speaker 1: on the top of my head. I conducted the research
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  Speaker 1: for the last two years. So where they are as
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  Speaker 1: far as the capabilities and what is the advantage that
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  Speaker 1: I see the Chinese have has to do with the cost.
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  Speaker 1: You know, these fighter jets, they're not going to cost
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  Speaker 1: $ 80 million. And that is, again, why I believe most countries,
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  Speaker 1: and as a matter of fact, which we will talk
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  Speaker 1: about it later on, President Xi is going to make
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  Speaker 1: stop in Egypt. This is not a coincidence. It's because
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  Speaker 1: Egypt is considering ordering some fighter jets from China.
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  Speaker 2: They just recently did a joint exercise together, the Egypt
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  Speaker 2: air force and the Chinese air force and Egyptian. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Decide to test their Rafael jets again, Rafael jets against China's, uh, uh, Jace, Jace,
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  Speaker 2: I believe it was J 16. And, and so it was, uh,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, they even throw a dog fight sequence in
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  Speaker 2: there just, just for the kicks, but everybody knew like,
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  Speaker 2: you know, dog fight is not really going to happen, but, uh,
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  Speaker 2: But yeah, so there's an increasing tighter cooperation between China
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  Speaker 2: and a lot of these countries in the MENA region.
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  Speaker 2: Because all these countries right now, they are all hedging
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  Speaker 2: their bets. They saw what's going on in the Strait
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  Speaker 2: of Hormuz. They saw that U.S. military turned out to
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: be a giant paper tiger. And they still cannot open
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  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. And not only that, Iran is
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  Speaker 2: systematically dismantling the U.S. bases all throughout the region. So
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  Speaker 2: all these countries are looking to pivot. They're all making
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  Speaker 2: their hedge right now. And therefore, they're trying to build
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  Speaker 2: up the relationship with China, which will play an increasingly
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: important role in the region.
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  Speaker 1: And only two days ago, by the way, Carl. Tarkov
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  Speaker 1: said that, oh, Strait of Hormuz is open. They're a
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  Speaker 1: freaking liar.
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  Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
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  Speaker 1: I just can't believe it.
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  Speaker 2: He won the Iran war like, what, 57 times?
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  Speaker 1: That's embarrassing. That is embarrassing. Just to finish this part
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  Speaker 1: here and we'll move on to something else. What I'm seeing, Carl,
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  Speaker 1: and please correct me if I'm wrong, What I'm seeing,
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  Speaker 1: the pattern vis-a-vis the Chinese weaponry here, I give the
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  Speaker 1: equivalency to the EVs, electric vehicles. And I'm like, you
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  Speaker 1: know what? I talked to people in Canada. In Canada now,
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  Speaker 1: they are buying BYD right and left because the cost
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  Speaker 1: and the efficiency. Will we be seeing the same regarding weaponry?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, China has in the last 40 years,
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  Speaker 2: they have really caught up and have been advancing on
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  Speaker 2: all fronts, you know, in the fronts of material science,
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  Speaker 2: in the fronts of electronics. And, you know, what they
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  Speaker 2: can do with EVs, well, they can apply to jet
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: fighter as well. You know, they're already making their own
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: civilian airplanes. And this advance will continue because China pumped
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: out millions of STEM graduate every year, you know, uh,
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  Speaker 2: supposed to China graduate about nine times more STEM graduate
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  Speaker 2: than United States every year. I mean, it's just a,
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  Speaker 2: it's just a numbers game. And, uh, and you know, even,
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  Speaker 2: even inside United States, you look at a lot of
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  Speaker 2: the people working in the STEM fields in us, a
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  Speaker 2: lot of them are Chinese coming from China. So, uh,
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  Speaker 2: That number continued to grow because China has greatly expanded
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  Speaker 2: its university enrollment also in the last four decades. So
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  Speaker 2: the total number of graduates, the total number of STEM
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  Speaker 2: graduates will continue to grow for the next decade. So
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  Speaker 2: China is going to trend up and up.
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  Speaker 1: Well, that's... very interesting. Like I said earlier, I wrote
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  Speaker 1: the book and I kind of looked at the next
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  Speaker 1: two decades, what the role of China is going to be,
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  Speaker 1: and it's becoming clear to me. I mean, what do
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  Speaker 1: you think, Carl? What will be the impact on the
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  Speaker 1: balance of power in Southeast Asia now?
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  Speaker 2: Well, this impact will be found globally. You know, even
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  Speaker 2: Tony Blinken, the former secretary of the state for Joe Biden,
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  Speaker 2: has admitted in a recent interview, he said, well, if U.S.
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  Speaker 2: were to go up against China one on one, it
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  Speaker 2: would be a big mismatch. China has a bigger population.
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  Speaker 2: They have bigger industrial base. So this is why we
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  Speaker 2: need to get our allies together, jump on this bandwagon.
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  Speaker 2: If the United States can unite with all its European
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  Speaker 2: allies and Japanese and Korean, then we can be a
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  Speaker 2: force to be reckoned with. But what he's really saying
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  Speaker 2: is the United States right now cannot go on one-on-one
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  Speaker 2: with China. He's acknowledging the fact that China is already,
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  Speaker 2: in fact, the biggest industrial power on the planet. And
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  Speaker 2: that that trend continues. You know, China, China continue to
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  Speaker 2: grow day by day. This is why I always said Chinese,
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  Speaker 2: you know, no hurry. They know time is on their side.
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  Speaker 2: They're not trying to make a they don't need to
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  Speaker 2: make a sudden gamble or rush into things like the
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  Speaker 2: people who say, oh, China will make a. big move
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  Speaker 2: in Taiwan 2027. I'm like, why 2027? China will be
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  Speaker 2: even stronger in 2031. China already waited 70 years to
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  Speaker 2: resolve the Taiwan issue. They can't afford to wait another decade.
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  Speaker 2: Time is on their side. But on the other side
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  Speaker 2: of the equation for the United States, it's totally opposite.
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  Speaker 2: The U.S. still... is suffering from the hollowing out of
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  Speaker 2: its manufacturing capacity. Now that U.S. military, U.S. military industrial
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  Speaker 2: complex has given up on manufacturing in the USA, they're
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  Speaker 2: now trying to find ways around the congressional law that
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  Speaker 2: prohibit United States from building warships in foreign countries. So
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  Speaker 2: they're trying to, you know, get... U.S. warship to travel
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  Speaker 2: to Japan and South Korea and get ritual fitted there
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  Speaker 2: because the South Korean and Japanese shipyard are much more
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  Speaker 2: productive and have much more capacity than United States itself.
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  Speaker 2: The idea that somehow U.S. is going to fight a
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  Speaker 2: naval war with China where China has 230 times shipbuilding
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  Speaker 2: capacity than United States, I mean, it's a fantasy. Complete fantasy.
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  Speaker 2: As everyone should realize by now, by seeing, witnessing the
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  Speaker 2: performance of U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf, people are
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  Speaker 2: literally jumping ship. You know, people are literally jumping ship
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  Speaker 2: on Lincoln.
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  Speaker 1: Well, you got a point there, Carl, because at least
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  Speaker 1: to my knowledge back then, there were some simulations inside
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  Speaker 1: the Pentagon. They weren't made public at the time. It
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  Speaker 1: was just for internal consumption. And out of the 18 scenarios, 17,
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  Speaker 1: we lost 17 out of the 18 scenarios to China.
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  Speaker 1: And that was back then, which I'm talking about some
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  Speaker 1: almost 15 years ago, 16, 17 to be exact, when
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  Speaker 1: the scenarios were conducted inside the Pentagon. I was still
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  Speaker 1: in Washington at that time. So you're absolutely correct where
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: things are headed. And this, it gives us an idea
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  Speaker 1: now as to what just happened between the US and
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: South Korea regarding those naval exercises. That makes me now think,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: what is Japan thinking? What is South Korea thinking? What
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  Speaker 1: is the Philippines thinking? How do you see it, Carl?
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  Speaker 2: Well, South Korea is already making their hedge. They throw
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  Speaker 2: out the pro-American president when he tried to do that
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: soft coup in Korea. And South Korea... Well, Trump wasn't happy.
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  Speaker 2: First of all, Trump wasn't happy with South Korea because
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  Speaker 2: South Korea didn't offer to join the blockade against Iran
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  Speaker 2: because they don't see that as their problem. It's not
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  Speaker 2: their war. So Trump said, well, you know what? I'm
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: going to punish you by scale down the U.S.-South Korean
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  Speaker 2: joint exercise. Trump saw that as a punishment by making
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: up some stories about how he's friends with Kim Jong-un already,
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  Speaker 2: so there's no need for the joint U.S.-South Korean exercise.
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  Speaker 2: But South Korean president's like, you know what, that's fine,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: because we are going to make our own peace with
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  Speaker 2: North Korea. Because what a lot of people don't realize
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: is that the Korean War ended in 1953 on the armistice.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Armistice is a ceasefire. It's not a peace treaty. So
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: the South Korean president is proposing to conclude a formal
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: peace treaty with North Korea that would end the state
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  Speaker 2: of hostility that has existed for more than a half century.
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  Speaker 2: And right after the announcement that Trump is going to
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: scale back the U.S.-South Korean joint exercise. Chinese Prime Minister
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  Speaker 2: Wang Yi visited South Korea. You know, he made a point.
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  Speaker 2: He quoted an ancient Chinese poem, you know, The pavilion
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  Speaker 2: that's closest to the water will get to the moonlight first.
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  Speaker 2: And he's referring to the fact that South Korea is
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: geographically close to China. And China is a growing market,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: growing economy. By being close to China, South Korea will
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: have the access to the Chinese market. And that's just
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  Speaker 2: a statement of a fact. The gravitational pull of the
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Chinese economy on its surrounding countries is such that they
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  Speaker 2: will naturally gravitate toward China. And this is another case
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  Speaker 2: where South Korea and China making their own separate uh
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  Speaker 2: arrangement that exclude the united states uh because you know
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  Speaker 2: the whole reason for u.s military presence in korea is
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: ostensibly to deter north korea but south korea is saying
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: you know what no thanks we got this thank you
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: but we got this which which means there will leave
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  Speaker 2: no room for united states now japan is a different
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  Speaker 2: case because uh Japan, US has been pushing Japan to
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  Speaker 2: remilitarize for the past decades. And this suited the interest
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: of the Japanese elite because the Japanese, the right wing
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: of the Japanese ruling party, LDP, starting from, you know,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: even before Shinzo Abe, they have always wanted to quote
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: unquote normalize Japan. And for them to normalize Japan means
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  Speaker 2: Japan must have a military. Right now, what Japan has
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: is called self-defense force, which was allowed under the peace
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: constitution that was imposed on Japan after World War II,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: which says Japan cannot have a military. You can only
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: maintain a self-defense force for the purpose of self-defense of Japan.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: But the Japanese politicians, starting from Shinzo Abe to the
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: present Prime Minister Takayuchi, they felt that Japan hasn't been
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: a normal country because they weren't allowed to have a
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: normal military. So they have always wanted to scrap the
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: peace constitution, particularly in Article 9, which says Japan shouldn't
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: deploy military abroad. So they tried to repeal that, but
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: the peace constitution is actually very popular within Japan because
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of the Japanese public rightly recognized is because
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Japan has diverted resource away from making war to internal development.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: That's what made the Japanese miracle after World War II possible.
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  Speaker 2: So unable to repeal the Article 9 of the Peace Constitution,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: they decided to reinterpret it. They reinterpreted to say, well, okay, well,
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: in case of existential threat to Japan, we still get
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: to deploy our military. Well, now the Prime Minister Takayoshi said, well,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: the Taiwan issue is an existential issue for Japan. That's
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: why we need to deploy our military. So they're finding
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: all kinds of excuses under the sun to remilitarize. And
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: the United States now is encouraging them to do that
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: because the U.S. itself has run into the resource constraint
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: of trying to be the global hegemon all over the world.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: And so now the way the U.S. deals with the
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: problem is trying to push its European and Japanese vassals
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: to take on the burden of maintaining the empire. And
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: this is why they're trying to offshore the responsibility for
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the Ukraine proxy war against Russia to the Europeans. And
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: they're trying to make Japan to shoulder more of the burden.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: to contain China. Now it just so happened that aligned
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: with the interests of the Japanese elite. And so they're
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: going full on the Japanese military and domestically, because the
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Japanese economy hasn't been doing well, you know, people already
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: saw there was some movement in the Japanese bond market
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: that led to Scott Besson's unsuccessful intervention. And, So the
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Japanese Prime Minister Takahichi's bet is, you know what? OK,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: maybe our car industry is in trouble. You know, we're
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: getting outcompeted by the Chinese on EVs. But guess what?
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: How about we use that productive capacity? We can use
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: it to build tanks. So basically they're doing the military kinship, right?
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, akin to what United States actually have been
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: doing for a while now. So they thought that that
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: would be a shot to the arm to the Japanese economy.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: But I don't think that will work because, you know, like,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: it might work for a while. It's like a drug,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: you know, military communism is like a drug. You'll get
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: your high for a while. You know, you get your
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: low unemployment rate, you know, like get people working, spending.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: But then at the end of the day, you just get,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: you just get an end up with a bunch of
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: weapons and you're not getting any productive income. You're not
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: building productive assets, right? This was a trap the Soviet
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Union fell into in its late years because a lot
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: of the resource in the Soviet economy was devoted to
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: its military program. And guess what? What happened with the
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Soviet Union collapse? Millions of tanks now just gathering rust,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: literally gathering rust because they're not being put into productive use.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: The similar scenario will likely play up with Japan. But
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: the problem is... with the Japanese politicians, they, they have,
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: they're very similar to the American politicians. Right. I mean,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: like long-term is a long time. That's that's long-term is
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: beyond the next election. The next election cycle. So, so
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: who cares? You know, who cares what happened in 10, 15,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: 20 years? You know, I, I will be out of
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: the office long before that. So yeah, That's true.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're kicking the can down the road. Yeah, basically. Well,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to me, basically, the way I look at it, Karl,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you know, if they were to think in these terms,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the first order of business will be like, ask the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: 30 plus thousand troops in Okinawa to leave. Then the country,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Japan in this case, will have at least its sovereignty.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Then they can think about in terms of how they
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: want to proceed. But I don't see that happening. Same
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: thing that I don't see that with South Koreans. You know,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: they don't have the capability to tell the Americans, hey,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: you need to pack and leave. Simple as that. And
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: they're not going to do that. I want to go
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: quickly to that poem you shared that Mr. Wanhee, which
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I found very fascinating. I don't speak the language, but
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I can just see how diplomacy has been wrapped into poetry.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: That's to me the fascinating, the thinking. It's because when
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: I wrote the history, I devoted an entire chapter in
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: my forthcoming book about China to history about I'm going
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: back to really the Yuan dynasty and all that stuff
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: and go through. It was very fascinating. So I can see,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: based on what you shared with us, Carl, how the
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Chinese foreign policy is being in practice on the global
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: stage today. a reflection of the past. Very, very fascinating.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: It's very interesting, to say the least. Let's shift our
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: gear to the upcoming, as a matter of fact, the
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: summit started, it's going to be today, all the way
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: to the first of the SEO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization in
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Bishkek Summit. What I wanted to ask you, Carl, is,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: first of all, how do you see the role of
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: an economic bloc like the HCO? We will talk about
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: BRICS in a second. How do you see their role
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: in the new multipolar landscape?
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Well, first of all, the Shanghai Cooperation Forum, this includes
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of the countries that is on the belt
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: and road initiative you know the the belt and road
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: consists two part the silk road economic belt and the
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: marine time silk road so the bell part is actually
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: the land belt that goes through from china to central
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: asia to link with russia europe and and west asia
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: and so that the Shanghai Cooperation Forum actually includes a
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: lot of these countries. And a lot of these countries
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: also has a common interest to maintain stability in face
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: of a rampage in the United States that's wrecking the
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: world order. So this is alongside with BRICS as well.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: BRICS is actual economic forum. And one of the things
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: that all these countries have to deal with is to
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: build a post-US world order. By post-US world order, I
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: mean the post-US financial hegemony all over the world. United
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: States has been weaponizing its dollar hegemony, trying to put
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: punishing money All the nations that he didn't like. And
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: the result is it's actually pushing all these countries to
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: seek ways to de-dollarize. Because, you know, before people used
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: the U.S. dollar because it was easy. Because everybody accepted.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Everybody needs it. Because you need dollar to purchase oil.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: And now... They realize, no, it's not just an asset.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: It also can be a liability because that means the U.S.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Treasury Department can freeze your bank account anytime. Who wants that?
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Who wants to put your money in a bank just
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: to have the bank take it away? So now they're
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: trying to build an alternative financial infrastructure that exists without
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: the United States. China led the way with the SIP system,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: allowed Russia to continue to trade even after it got
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: kicked off of the SWIFT system. And the alternative will
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: continue to grow because now there's a genuine demand for it.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: People need it in order to maintain their financial independence.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Well, you are absolutely correct. The only concern that I have, Carl,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Because you mentioned the financial aspect, which I can see
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the connection between, because that's what we did after World
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: War II by setting up the Brighton Woods system, which
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: the financial paved the way to the economic and political setting.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: And the problem that I see with both the ACO
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: and BRICS is that you got countries like India, that's
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: going to be sort of, I know some think I'm
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: just picking up on India. I'm not. I am picking
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: up on what is clear to me how India is
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: already undermining the progress of exactly what you talked about, Carl.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: How do you see it playing out now that they're
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: going to have the chairship of the BRICS summit in
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: New Delhi? Wow.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: So I remember a few months ago, I was invited
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: to be a guest on a Iranian.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Show.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: The Iranian host asked me, is there a perception that
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Iran is the weakest link? among the bricks. I just
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: tried my hardest not to break out laughing because nobody
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: think Iran is the weakest link in the bricks. Everybody
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: knew who is the weakest link in the bricks. It's India, right?
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: People would not mind to replace that I in the
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: bricks with Iran or Indonesia. But But India itself right
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: now is suffering through the consequences of its own actions.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: You know, the actions I'm talking about is its pivot
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: to United States and Israel just prior to the war,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: the illegal U.S.-Israel war on Iran. You know, India first
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: complied with the U.S. demand to to cut off Russian oil.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: And then India, Modi, Prime Minister Modi visited to India
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: to say like something like Israel is our fatherland. I
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: didn't even understand what he meant by that. by that?
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I think the Indian elite, they made a calculation that
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: because Israel has an oversized influence in the United States,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: if they cozy up to Israel, maybe they can get
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: more favorable treatment from Washington. But that's not how it works,
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: you know, because right now Donald Trump is a president
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: and Donald Trump is a bully. A bully only respects strength.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: He despises weakness. And this goes back to the India-Pakistan
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: air war, which showed clearly India was weak. You know,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: before the United States needed India, as a member of
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the Quad to contain China. But here you are, India
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: just got defeated by Pakistan using Chinese weapon platform. So
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: suddenly the India's value in Trump's eyes as a counterweight
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: to China just dropped precipitously. And that's why the Trump
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: administration recently has given a cold shoulder to India and
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: India noticed that. And, and, and then they, you know,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: their betrayal of Iran, uh, didn't help them when the
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: straight or whole moves got closed. And, you know, India
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: depend lot of their energy resources on the, in, on
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: the oil and gas coming from the Persian Gulf. So
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: they're suffering that the India is, is suffering, uh, Indian
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: economy is suffering a huge energy squeeze because of that.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: And this is all because of the action of USA, Israel,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: which is trying to getting close to while India is
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: not getting, India is bearing all the costs and getting
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: none of the benefit. So now India is trying to
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: pivot and Now India is trying to pivot back to
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: the BRICS countries and trying to make appeal to China,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: mainly appeal to China to provide India with fertilizers, for example,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: because China doesn't make their fertilizer from oil and gas.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: China makes fertilizer from coal, and China has plenty of coal.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: And so China has plenty of stores of urea and
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: all kinds of chemical fertilizers that India needs. And so
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: China not only was enough to provide all the Chinese
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: farmers with the fertilizer they need, China had produced enough
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: fertilizer to supply its fellow BRICS members like Brazil. And
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: India also begged China to sell them urea, which China did,
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: to China's credit. So right now, India is trying to
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: repair the damage that itself has done to its relationship
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: with the fellow BRICS countries. but particularly China, now they're
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: changing their tune about they welcome Chinese investment, et cetera,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: et cetera. But I think it would take time to
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: rebuild back the trust because the Chinese company will remember
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: the time they got burned just a few years back. Yeah,
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: and so India has to do something to show their sincerity. Otherwise,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: there's a... colloquialism in China. You get bitten by snake once.
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: You're scared of a rope for 10 years. You're scared
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: of a rope-shaped thing for 10 years. That's just a
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: natural common reaction. So you have to, India will have
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: to do a lot more now. to try to win
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: back the trust. And, you know, also that remains to
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: be seen. But India also knows it's in trouble. It's
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: why it's trying to readjust its foreign policy right now.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: We'll have to see whether it's, you know, yield any results.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: I did, just for the community, I posted on the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: chat box there the article I wrote yesterday on Substack.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: I do have an account on Substack. about the double game,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: how India talks autonomy. And so just if you get
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: a chance to read it, you will. And that's exactly
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: my point, Carl. You can't be standing on both sides
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: of the fence. You wanted to promote what breaks, whatever, whatever,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: but at the same time undermining its agenda. That's just
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: because you say you don't want China to have the
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: upper hand. Well, it's a fact. China has the upper
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: hand because it's an economy. You might dwarf that of yours.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Simple as that. And I don't understand where the mindset
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: of the Indian leaders coming from when they know they
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: will not be in a position to compete with the Chinese.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Simple as that. And I kind of, now, given that
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: what you just said, Carl, there are some analysts right
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: here in the West, they are saying, well, you know what?
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Those economic blocks like SEO, like RICS amount to nothing.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: My argument is that the way I see it, I
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: see that the new multipolar that we are in right
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: now It's not going to be directed by ideology, but
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: rather by economic blocks. And SEO and BRICS can play
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: that role, except that you have members inside those organizations
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: that are limiting or undermining that progress. How can this
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: issue be resolved, in your opinion?
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the people, if the bricks truly does
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: not matter, these guys wouldn't be writing articles about it, right?
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's something that truly doesn't matter. You won't
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: even talk about it. It's like an afterthought. The fact
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: that you are trying to justify it doesn't matter. I
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: think the lady protested too much. You know, it's... It's
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: the fact that it does matter. I mean, even Marco
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Rubio recognized that. Even the Trump administration. You know, Trump
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: probably calls the BRICS like a hostile organization toward the
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: United States. Because You know, they recognize that that was
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: a threat to the dollar hegemony. Marco Rubio said, you know,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: if we don't do anything right now in five to
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: 10 years, we won't be able to sanction anybody anymore
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: because they will have moved off the dollars. Yeah. So,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're absolutely right. You know, the bricks is
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: not held together by idealism. hold up by common interests,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: which is actually a lot more resilient than an ideologically
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: aligned movement. Because, you know, after all, nations, they interact
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: with each other based on interests. And this is the
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: same goes with like some of the more important relationship
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: among the BRIC country, for example, the China-Russia relationship. You know,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: today China's Russia relationship is not the same as the China,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: Russia relationship during the Sino-Soviet honeymoon period. Back then it
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: was based on ideology. Today, two countries' relationship is bound
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: by common interests, you know, because Russia is a commodity producer.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: China is a commodity consumer and Russia and China both
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: want to see its long border, common border be, stay peaceful.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: These are powerful forces that bind them together. No matter
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: what these Western pundits say or not say, it's really
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: their opinion that doesn't matter.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: You're absolutely correct. And just to add to that one, Carl,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: about Russia and China, they both have now these independent
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: financial systems. They don't need the SIPs in China, and
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I forgot the name of the ones in Russia. They
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: don't need the dollar. They don't need SWIFT. They don't
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: need anything. They have their own moving forward. And speaking
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: of this, I want to get your take before we
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: move to another theme to address President Xi Jinping's upcoming trip. Now,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: there is a business deal. that is worth $ 4. 7 billion
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: between Uzbekistan and China, regarding the rail. That's going to
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: go to Uzbekistan and China. How is that, in your opinion,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: going to shape the energy sector? I want to focus
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: on the energy and get your take on it.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, Central Asia is very important for Chinese
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: energy supply, you know, because currently China already have a
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: gas pipeline that link pipe the natural gas from Caspian
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: to China, from Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan going to China. And
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: this is why, you know, throughout the Strait of Hormuz crisis,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: China was able to keep its price stable. because China
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: is receiving plenty of energy through alternative route. That's why
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: China was able to cut its own oil import by
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: nearly half. And, and, and that's a, new rail will
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: continue to bind these countries together. The rail from Kashgar
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: in China going through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan, this will cut
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: short the distance significantly. Before, the rail has to go
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: north through Kazakhstan, and then go down to Uzbekistan. And
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: now this is a much shorter linkage, particularly from Kashgar.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: Kashgar traditionally was a very important hub on the Silk Road,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: and China very much wished to revive Kashgar Station as
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: a very important stop point on the Silk Road. So
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: this railway is one part of that, just to improve
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: the infrastructure along the way. This is a This is
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: the whole purpose of Belt and Road Initiative is to
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: build connectivity, build infrastructure that will bring more trade, bring
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: more trade among these global South countries, but also between
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: these global South countries and China. And as your map shows,
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: it also shortens the distance connecting China and Iran. Traditionally,
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: China would have to go through Kazakhstan first. and then
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, into Iran. But with this much shorter route,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: it will also cut down the distance. Distance matters. Now,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: especially with the Red Sea closing, now all the world
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: marine traffic have to go through the Horn of Africa,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: which takes another extra week or so. And the advantage of...
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: I remember seeing a video by Sarah Payne. She's saying, oh,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: the Belt and Road Initiative is doomed to fail because
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: the sea water transport will always be cheaper than the
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: land transport. But the thing is, China is not trying
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: to replace the water transport. China is trying to build
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: an alternative. And the real transport, what the advantages are
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: is it's it's much faster than shipping them on water. And,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: you know, you can get goods, for example, from China
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: to Europe within a week. Whereas, you know, right now,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: if you had to go through around the Horn of Africa,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: it'll almost take a month. And this does matter. Like
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: for cheap stuff, yes. You know, like it's more price sensitive.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Transport become more price sensitive. but for more expensive items
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: like laptops. By the way, 50% of the world's laptops
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: are made in my hometown of Chongqing, which is located
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: in the heart of China. Those laptops now get loaded
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: on trains and shipped to Europe. They can arrive in
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: Europe within a couple of weeks rather than a month.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: For laptops and iPhones, the little bit extra cost you
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: pay over rail really doesn't matter, you know, because the
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: time is more important than whatever saving you're getting on water. So,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: you know, like people would like to have their laptop
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: and phone as soon as possible. So there's always a
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: rail will always play a role. And again, China is
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: not doing either or. You know, the belt and road,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: like I said, the belt part is the land link.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: The road part is actually the sea link. China is
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: still building port infrastructure all over the world. And, you know, U.S.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: has said repeatedly, U.S. Navy said, oh, we're going to
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: choke off the Strait of Malacca, choke off the Strait
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: of Malacca. Well, guess what? China has been prepared. You know,
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: China has heard this rhetoric for decades and China prepared
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: for that. And now, you know, you can look at
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: Trump's failed blockade on blockade. China, look at it. It's like,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: you know what? It's okay. We still have plenty of energy.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: You know, this is a trial run for China, what
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: a U.S. blockade on the Strait of Malacca would look like.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: You know, because China passed with flying colors. You know,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: China has developed its own energy productions through expansion of
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: sustainable energy. Energy like wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear. And
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: then they also can pipe in oil and gas from
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: Russia and Central Asia. So this is how China was
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: able to cut down its oil imports by half, voluntarily.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: And they're fine. It's other countries in the region that's
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: suffering right now. Like I already mentioned, India. India is
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: clearly suffering because India didn't have alternatives. So, again, this
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: is what this straight or homo crisis has shown. A,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: it shows that the U.S. is a paper tiger. B,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: that an alternative has already been laid on the ground.
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: China has already helped build an alternative to the U.S.-led
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: global order.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: And you have, if I may add to that also, Garth,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: you have the Gulf states are pivoting east. That is
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: one of the, when you think about the big picture
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: of where this is going, when the Saudis are cutting
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: a deal with the Chinese to trade in Yuan.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: You know, the common saying is follow the money. And
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: if you follow the money in West Asia, Right now,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: they're flowing to the east. There's a lot of money
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: flowing to Hong Kong and Singapore right now that actually
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: propels Hong Kong past Switzerland as a top inflow destination
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: for foreign capital. It's because all these Gulf monarchies, now
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: they're seeking to park their money in a safe place.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: And The whole reason rationale, a lot of the reason
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: rationale for United States to light fire all over the world,
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: waging war around the world, is to get that money
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: to flow back in U.S., to present U.S. as a
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: land of calm oasis where you will be safe to
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: park your hard-earned dollars. But now people are voting with
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: their wallet. They are now taking the money. East because
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: they thought that is going to be the future. That's
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: going to be the safe haven where they would store
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: their money. Not the United States. They'd rather not to
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: take their money to continue to fill this giant AI
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: bubble that's building up in the US. That was a
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: plan for the Trump administration. They wanted these Gulf countries
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: to come up with the money to fund their like
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: $ 500 billion Stargate project, you know, all these AI project,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: those money are not coming. Sorry to say, because, you know,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: countries like Kuwait hasn't sold oil for a month and,
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: and the money they do have, they'd rather not continue
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: to plow into the U S treasury, the U S
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: you know, and the U S stock market. So, and, and, and,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: And United States, if you take away all this AI investment,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: if you take away all the investment into AI sector
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: building data centers, the growth is zero. Essentially, there's zero
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: growth if you take away all this AI investment. But
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: I would argue the AI investment itself is not sustainable
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: because they're building the data center up the wazoo, but
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: US don't produce enough electricity to support it. So now
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: they're cannibalizing into the electricity from civilian uses. That's why
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: electricity rates has been going up for everybody. And this
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: is raising a lot of public opposition to new data centers.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: People are finally waking up the fact that they're privatizing
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: the profits. But socializing the cost. They're making everybody pay
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: for them making the killing through this AI bubble. And
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: people are not happy about that.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm aware of a story of someone. He's a
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: farmer in Midwest. You know, they approached him to buy
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: his farm and got him $ 15 million. He turned it down.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: You know why he turned it down, Carl? Because he
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: found out they're going to build a data center. So
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: he went ahead and sold it to another farm, but
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: put it under trust, which means it will only used
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: for farming for $ 2 million. And this is why we
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: have no elections coming up here in the state of Texas.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: And one of the representatives, you know what he's arguing?
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Is that China is buying more land in Texas than
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: which has nothing to do with the reality. It shows
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: you because Texans do not want the data centers anymore.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: And that is why he has to shift now the
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: blame on, on China. It's just, it's pathetic.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: Like, like I said, every accusation is a confession. You know, every,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Every time they talk about China, it's almost 100% projection.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: Don't look at all these land we buy for data center.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Look at China. The communists are buying land. Oh my God.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: And actually the Gulf, you know the Gulf states, you
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: mentioned the Gulf earlier. You know that Qatar had its representative,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: he flew to Iran to cut a deal. United Arab
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Emirates sent $ 6 billion to Iran. So these countries are saying,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: you know what? We're done with what America was promising.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: We have two options here. Cut a deal with the
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Iranian and shift our money far east. That is what
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: they are doing. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: They're doing all this right now. They're very interesting. I
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: want to move to our last segment of this conversation here,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: even though it's still early, but I am going to
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: address it because I might not talk to you during
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: the time when President Xi Jinping is going to be
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: in Washington. I have it on a good authority, Carl,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: that President Xi Jinping is only going to be in Washington, D.C.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: for a few hours. He's not staying like during the
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Obama administration. He stayed here for four days and had
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: a visit to, I believe, Arizona. And I think he
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: went to Chicago. This time, he's staying only a few hours.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: And I want to get your take on this. First
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: of all, what is the message China is sending by
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: having President Xi Jinping only stay for about two hours
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: or so? And second, what do you make of the
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: message that that Beijing issued publicly saying that the administration
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: is chaotic. It needs to get its act together. I
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: remember reading that.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, what's the point of staying more than a
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: few hours in Washington, right? I mean, like a lot
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: of these, the reason Xi Jinping is coming back, is
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: coming to United States for a visit. This is just
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: to maintain kind of the atmosphere of Datong that started
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: with their previous summit, right? To keep that momentum going.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: But at the same time, this is election season in
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: the United States. And we all know it's going to
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: go crazy. Like this is going to be like, there's
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: going to be a lot of anti-China stuff because they
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: have to continually to shift blame to China. Because for
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: whatever reason, China is now an election issue in the
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: United States, which is completely ridiculous. So both sides are
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: going to try to act tough on China. So there's
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: no reason for Xi Jinping to stay in Washington to
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: be a target, right? I mean, why would anyone subject
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: themselves to do that? So he did that as a
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: courtesy to kind of, to maintain the appearance for the detente,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: the temporary truce between US and China. But he's not
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: staying for more time than necessary because you know, he
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: realized there's nothing to be gained to spend more time
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. Um, I mean like whatever the
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: deal that they hope to achieve that has already been
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: hashed out through negotiation, you know, before the visit, uh,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of those posts summit visit, most of them are, they're,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: they're symbolic, right? They're, they're usually like symbols of goodwill, uh,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: But right now, there's just not that much goodwill toward
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: China and the U.S. at this point. Like I said,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: it's the election season, so it's crazy. It's going to
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: be crazy out there. I think it actually makes sense
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: that Xi Jinping stays brief.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: However, President Xi is going to Egypt. And that I
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: find very interesting, given the Military cooperation that is going on.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Do you know, Carl, that I'm sure you've probably heard
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: about it. The U.S. just sanctioned Egypt. U.S.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: Is sanctioning everyone right now. They're freaking renaming the Lake Ontario.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, oh, my God. The U.S. literally sanctioned its
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: largest trading partner, Canada.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: Like China used to be the U S largest trading partner,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: but after the Trump tariff and all that, or China
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: is number three after, uh, Canada and Mexico. So Canada
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: is a U S largest trading partner. So for whatever reason,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Trump decided he's going to go after Canada. So all
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: this do is going to do is now is going
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: to push Canada to pivot to other countries and including China,
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: including China. Yeah. Because now, uh, US, all those Canadian crude,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: instead of coming through the pipeline to the US refinery,
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: now they can be shipped westwards through Pacific to China.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: And there's a lot of, again, Canada is another commodity producer. And,
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: you know, China is the world's biggest market for most
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: of these commodities. So they will continue to go to China.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: And Canada was one of the, kind of the key
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: members for the U.S. alliance to produce a China-free critical
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: mineral supply chain. You know, and they can kiss that goodbye.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: You know, one product, for example, one critical mineral is gallium.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: And the way you produce gallium, you don't dig it
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: out of the earth. You get gallium as a byproduct
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: of making aluminum. And the limiting factor of making aluminum
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: is actually electricity. Well, guess what? United States don't have
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: enough electricity. All the capacities get eaten up by all
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: these data centers. So Alcoa actually had built a couple
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: of plants, aluminum plants in Canada to take advantage of
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: Canada's plentiful, cheap hydro plants. electric power. But now Trump
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: decides to tear up Canada. So forget about relying on
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: Canada to produce the critical mineral that U.S. military industrial
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: complex desperately needs to go into weapon systems.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: It shows you the thinking. As a matter of fact, Carl,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump didn't expect that Canada is going to fire back.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: And they did. They did immediately. Carney, to my knowledge,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: he called his people, said leave, and returned back to Ottawa,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: and said we're done, and we're imposing the tariffs on
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: the U.S. as well. Yeah, the way it's going to work,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: like you suggested, Carl, I think to Canada it's becoming
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: clear where he needs now to pivot to establish strong
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: economic bilateral ties with the Chinese. I've heard I know
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: some people in Canada. I've heard about, for example, the
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: deal Canada cuts with the Chinese regarding the tariff on EVs,
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: especially BYD. And they are selling like a hot cake
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: in Canada because the cost is cheaper. So if I
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: go to Canada and buy a BYD there and bring
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: it to the state, they'll charge me 100% tariffs. So
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: what do you make, just to end this one here,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: what do you make of the stop of presidency in Egypt?
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: How significant will that be given that Egypt is an
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: ally of the US, but the geopolitical landscape is shifting now?
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Well, Egypt is one of the most populous country in
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: the Middle East. it's one of the most important Arab
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: countries in the region. China has a keen interest to
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: build a bridgehead in the region. There's a lot of
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Chinese projects going on in Egypt right now. They actually
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: helped to build the Egyptians' new capital, the new district
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: of Cairo. There's every reason for China to give it
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: the attention it deserves. And China continue to develop ties
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: with these countries at the time when United States is
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: offering nothing about war. It's like that Jerry Maguire movie,
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: show me the money. China is actually putting money on
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: the table. US is like, the best I can do
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: is some military bases and I'll throw you some hardware,
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: military hardware, yeah. And the military hardware that you cannot
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: use freely, because we're going to attach some conditions on
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: which condition you can or cannot use those military hardware.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: So it's useless. Yes. Like Pakistan find out when US
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: told Pakistan, no, you cannot use those F-16s we sold
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: you to fight against India. Then what do Pakistan need
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: those F-16s for? What are they going to use it
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: to fight? Where are they going to fight?
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: So they went ahead and bought the Chinese J-10.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Who knows?
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe one day China will make an exception on J-20.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: But those are advanced based on what I read. the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: characteristics of those fighter jets, it's a stealth type. So
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: it's very, very, very... I'll give you a last word, Gar,
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: because we're almost top of the hour here. I'll give
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: you a last word about, especially about what do you
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: expect will come out of the both summits, the SCO
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: and the BRICS, and how is this going to literally,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: literally go in parallel with where the world is headed
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: as far as the multipolarity?
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, multipolar world is already here. Like Marco
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: Rubio said, multipolar world is already here. It's just a fact.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: And China is already... What China is trying to do,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: China is not trying to blow up the U.S. empire.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: This is how U.S.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Think.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: U.S. continue to function on this zero-sum mentality. In order
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: for America to win, it needs to handicap everybody else.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: China is focused on its own development. But China also
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: sees that it also has an interest in the decline
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: of the U.S. empire. But it doesn't want the decline
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: of the U.S. empire to be a craptacular implosion that
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: will blow out the world financial system. So what China
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: is doing, they're managing. They're managing a gradual decline of
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: the US. So the US empire does not take down
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: the world with it. So to do that, China is
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: trying to foster some kind of stability and to lay
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: the groundwork for a new alternative order. That means building relationships,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: tie with the global South countries, help building infrastructure, And
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: this is all part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: And so far, you know, that's playing a lot better than,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: you know, whatever U.S. is offering, which is pure militarization.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: That's true. You're absolutely correct, Carl. And I'm sure countries
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: are now thinking in terms of, I mean, I looked
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: at the list on the 30 countries they want to
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: join BRICS. 30. And that tells me the story right there.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: Of course, there is always that issue. of India inside BRICS.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: I've always said this is nothing new. People can look
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: at the record, go back even 10 years ago, some
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: of my writing when I mentioned this, that what I
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: foresee is the BRICS being undermined. And here we are. Well, Carl,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough, my friend. It's always good
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: to link up with you. I know we haven't talked
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: for quite a while. So on behalf of the entire community,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: I'll say thank you for sharing your knowledge. And by
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: the way, guys, to those who do not know, make
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: sure you go check out Carl's podcast, the Silk and
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Steel podcast. It's very, very interesting. If you want to
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: learn about history and you learn about what's going on.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: So thank you so much, Carl. And I look forward
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: to seeing you next time.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: Bye-bye.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Bye, my friend.