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Jun 04 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260604 In the commodity sector, corn and soybeans experienced a sharp decline, breaking through key moving averages. This downturn was driven by continuous fund selling, speculation about delayed Chinese purchasing, and increased Argentine crop estimates. While farmers have priced approximately 25% of their new crop—outpacing last year's sales—they remain below the 50% to 60% targets recommended by analysts. Future price rallies are heavily dependent on whether the dry northern regions of the Corn Belt receive sufficient rainfall in the coming days. The USDA has confirmed the presence of the New World screwworm in South Texas, initiating a 20-kilometer quarantine zone and releasing sterile flies to halt the infestation. Because the pest spreads almost exclusively through the transportation of infected animals, Midwest herds remain safe as long as cattle are not moved from the southern border area. Pet owners in the affected Texas region are also advised to monitor their animals closely, as the insect feeds on living tissue in open wounds. For growers looking to diversify, premium markets such as non-GMO, organic, and hybrid-specific crops offer strong profit potential. Capitalizing on these premiums requires rigorous on-farm segregation to prevent cross-contamination and proactive planning, as contracts for these specialized programs often reach capacity months in advance. Looking at the weather, the northeast half of the Corn Belt is facing an unusually dry start to the season. An upper-level high-pressure system is expected to maintain above-average temperatures and block major rain events for the next week to ten days. Meanwhile, North American spring wheat is beginning to recover from a historically dry April and May due to recent precipitation, and growing regions across Europe and Russia continue to benefit from highly favorable moisture levels. - Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - First Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in Texas - Premium Crop Market Opportunities Webinar Review with Kelsey Graber, ClarksonGrain.com - Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fourth day of June 2026. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. 01:00 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us to talk about a brutal day in Chicago. "Brutal" doesn't mean we had losses hitting the limits for the day, but soybeans were down 30 cents at one point. Corn was off seven to eight cents at the end of the day, blowing through the 100-day moving averages. New crop soybeans were down near the 200-day moving average. Since the January reports, most of our analysts have advised taking advantage when we reach the top of the range. That happened two or three times in May. I am wondering whether producers managed to do that enough to feel protected going into the rest of the growing season, and what their reaction was today. Matt Bennett: That is a wonderful question, Todd. Talking to the people we work with, there was certainly more new crop corn and soybeans sold than what we saw a year ago, and probably over the last three years. We have been pushing to get 50% of corn and 60% of beans sold. Some people thought that was excessive when the market was rallying, but we are not making decisions based on guessing the market. We are making decisions based on where we know the grower can secure some profit. Overall, the grower did not get to 50%. My estimate is that producers sold 20% to 30% this week. I will call it 25% for now, which is better than a year ago, but it does not feel like enough right now. Todd Gleason: What caused the rollover today? Matt Bennett: It is a variety of things. There are rumors that China indicated they may not start any purchasing program until September. This week, it has been problematic seeing the estimates on the Argentine crop growing. Since last week's big rollover, when funds sold over 80,000 contracts, they have continued selling. Across Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, we will likely see a large drop in the commitment of traders' long positions for funds. On the way up, funds were buying while the farmer was selling and rewarding the market. The commercial sector sells when they buy it off producers to hedge. The problem yesterday and today is that there are still farmers selling to get out, and commercials are selling corn while the funds are also selling corn. The buyers simply are not showing up. That is what made this move difficult to stomach. Todd Gleason: Farmers will need to stay calm. What do you tell them now? Matt Bennett: Last year, we had very few opportunities to sell close to the crop insurance price, which was $4.70. You are looking at December corn closing over $4.50 today. That is not ideal, but keeping things in perspective, a lot of corn was sold with a futures handle of $3.00 starting last fall. We must understand that all is not lost. I go back to the basics. When talking to someone in panic mode, you return to the drawing board: where can you make money? Many growers in our part of the world feel they have a better-than-average crop going right now. If you are in that camp, you must update your production estimates, identify where you can make a profit, and determine what to do to lock in a worst-case scenario. Todd Gleason: Producers will be watching the weather, as there is always a chance for dry conditions to develop during the summer months. Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Northern Illinois is excessively dry. Rain looks like it will show up over the next several days. If they miss that rain, it will start raising red flags. You do not want a dry June, as a lack of moisture typically exacerbates heat in July. They need to get that rain. If they do, rallies will be tough to come by. On the flip side, we could see a lot of what was lost come right back into the market if the seven-day forecast fails to verify. Todd Gleason: July corn finished seven cents lower, and December was down eight cents. November beans were 25 and three-quarters cents lower, and July wheat was down five and a half cents. 06:45 First Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in Texas Todd Gleason: United States Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins is putting cattle producers on alert for an insect pest. The New World screwworm was confirmed late yesterday to have crossed the border from Mexico into South Texas. It was found in La Pryor, west of San Antonio. Secretary Rollins says the USDA has teams on the ground to contain the pest. Brooke Rollins: We have established a 20-kilometer infested zone around the detection and are implementing quarantines, movement controls, and surveillance in this area. We have expedited the targeted release of sterile New World screwworm flies—which is how we solve the issue—by immediately deploying ground release chambers in the area, in addition to the 4 million sterile flies per week already being released aerially. Todd Gleason: Rollins is worried about the economic consequences the insect could have on herds in Texas. The screwworm fly lays eggs in open sores and wounds on cattle, which causes them to become sick once the larvae hatch. She says it is important to recognize the New World screwworm is primarily transmitted through animal movement, requiring producers in that area of Texas to strictly follow guidelines. Brooke Rollins: This fly typically moves great distances because humans move animals, not because the fly flies to new areas. This is a crucial point. The only way this spreads is through animal movement. Todd Gleason: Teresa Steckler is a beef cattle specialist with the University of Illinois. She says cattle producers in the Midwest should stay watchful but do not need to worry. Teresa Steckler: The only time I would get concerned is if producers from Illinois brought cattle up from along the border in Texas. I do not see that happening. That is a completely different breed of cattle. We primarily have Angus, Simmental, and black-hided cattle here. Right now, I am not worried about the New World screwworm in Illinois. Todd Gleason: Cattle producers are urged to visit the USDA's screwworm.gov website for more information. The agency plans to hold press conferences each Tuesday and Thursday to help the industry monitor the situation. It has also set up an email at screwworm@usda.gov for those needing to report possible infestations. The pest does not pose a food safety risk as it is an insect that feeds on living tissue, rather than a disease. Early treatment ensures the recovery of affected animals, making them safe to enter the food supply. However, everyday Americans are still involved in the battle to contain the pest, according to the Secretary of Agriculture. Brooke Rollins: This is not just a livestock or cattle issue. It is a pet issue as well. In some cases found within 20 to 60 miles of the Mexican border in Mexico, many of the affected animals were felines and dogs. Todd Gleason: In South Texas, pet owners inside the 20-kilometer containment area should not move animals outside of the quarantine. They should check open sores and wounds for larvae and report them to their local vet for treatment. For more information, go to screwworm.gov. 10:24 Premium Crop Market Opportunities Webinar Review with Kelsey Graber, ClarksonGrain.com Todd Gleason: Earlier today, we hosted a farmdoc webinar focused on premiums you might garner from growing premium crops. Kelsey Graber with Clarkson Grain joins us. Kelsey, let's begin with defining a premium crop. Kelsey Graber: A premium crop is anything different from conventional yellow corn or conventional soybeans. This includes white corn, non-GMO, identity-preserved, hybrid-specific, and organic crops. Todd Gleason: How can people find information related to Clarkson Grain? Is it clarksongrain.com? Kelsey Graber: It is clarksongrain.com. There are also many local resources available in Illinois. I recommend starting with your local elevators to see if they have any premium crop markets you can tap into, such as non-GMO soybeans. You can also reach out to your seed dealer or other grain companies in the area. Todd Gleason: Here in Champaign County, many are aware of the Frito-Lay plant. Is that considered a premium food-grade corn market? Kelsey Graber: Definitely. That is one of the lower-hanging fruits and easiest to enter. While there are limits to how much they will buy, it is a great starting point. They work with The Andersons in Mansfield, Illinois, and we also work with organics supplied to them. Todd Gleason: Regular listeners will be familiar with Brian Stark at The Andersons in Mansfield. Clarkson Grain is located outside of Cerro Gordo, Illinois, and deals with a worldwide market. Tell us about the broader marketplace for premium crops. Kelsey Graber: We handle non-GMO and organic crops. Everything comes into our corn plant in Cerro Gordo or our soybean plant in Mattoon. We handle basic non-GMO white corn, non-GMO yellow corn, and hybrid-specific soybeans in Mattoon. Most of our soybeans are cleaned and exported to Japan and Southeast Asia for tofu, soy sauce, and soy milk, requiring specific protein levels and hilum colors. Corn is slightly less labor-intensive regarding segregation, but offers similar premium opportunities. Todd Gleason: If I remember correctly, your Mattoon facility utilizes the old popcorn plant. Kelsey Graber: Exactly. We use the old popcorn plant right off the interstate. We have around 150 bins there, making it the perfect setup for a market where segregation is key. Todd Gleason: What impact does this have on a producer's gross income per acre, and how long does the process take? Kelsey Graber: Non-GMOs are easily accessible if your operation can handle the required segregation. Many of these contracts are buyer's call opportunities, requiring delivery within a three- to twelve-month period. Planting and growing them is straightforward, utilizing standard agronomic practices. It primarily comes down to diligent segregation at the end. Todd Gleason: Is there anything else producers need to know as they begin this process? Kelsey Graber: Producers must understand the specific premiums. Many of these are contracted grower programs, so it is important to reach out early. For instance, we roll out our non-GMO buying program and premiums in September for the 2027 crop, and organics roll out in December. These programs fill up fast, and seed availability can be limited. I encourage interested producers to start exploring these opportunities between now and August. Todd Gleason: Thank you, Kelsey. Kelsey Graber is with Clarkson Grain Company. 16:08 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention to global growing regions. We are now joined by Mike Tannura, the CEO and President of Tstorm Weather. Hi Mike, thanks for being with us today. Mike Tannura: Hey Todd, always great being here. Todd Gleason: Let's look directly at the Corn Belt. Things are green here in Champaign County, but there is some dryness. I was in Kansas earlier in the week and there was a lot of rain. How is the Corn Belt progressing through the season? Mike Tannura: So far, everything looks okay. It is a bit too early in the season to have definitive thoughts on overall crop health. In our specific case, it is slightly unusual because the northeast half of the corn and soybean region is quite dry. Proprietary data shows this is one of the drier opens to a season for the U.S. corn crop as a whole, which is surprising given the sharp delineation between the dry region and the wetter regions to the south and west. The best-case scenario is getting significant rain in these drier areas. We have a large area of upper-level high pressure centered on the central United States that will linger for another seven to 10 days. Small areas of energy will float underneath this high, producing daily showers and thunderstorms between the Plains, Corn Belt, and Mid-South, but major rain events will be absent. By late next week, we anticipate the western half of the corn and soybean belt will receive half an inch to one and a half inches of rain, while the eastern half will likely see less. Todd Gleason: The weather in our area has been pleasant and not overly hot. What do the temperatures look like over the next couple of weeks? Mike Tannura: The next 10 days will be a repeat of what we have seen recently. We will see highs in the 80s, and even the 90s in some northern areas, due to that upper-level high. Temperatures will generally be pleasant during the day and drop into the 50s and 60s at night, resulting in warmer-than-normal conditions overall. There are changes on the horizon for next weekend. A large system approaching from the west should weaken the upper-level high. We expect temperatures to turn considerably cooler heading into next weekend and the following week, with highs settling in the 70s and 80s instead of the 80s and 90s. Todd Gleason: Can you take a look at the spring wheat growing regions? Mike Tannura: Spring wheat is facing some challenges. This week, 47% of the crop was rated good to excellent, which is the third lowest rating since 1986. April and May were among the driest on record since 1971, and the cumulative effect of that dry weather is reflected in current condition ratings. It has rained over the last week, so they are starting to receive needed moisture, and more rain is expected. With the system approaching the central U.S. in seven to 10 days, conditions for spring wheat should continue to improve in both the U.S. and Canada. Todd Gleason: How are the crops in Europe progressing? Mike Tannura: They are in a favorable pattern for rain. The jet stream is lined up from Europe straight through Russia, bringing decent rain to the wheat crop across the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia. This also benefits the rapeseed and corn areas. All North American and European regions are looking solid at the moment with good forecasts and adequate soil moisture. Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, congratulations are in order. On Monday, June 1st of this week, you celebrated 20 years of Tstorm Weather. Mike Tannura: Thank you so much, Todd. It has been a wild ride. The company started right there in Champaign, moved to Chicago, and is now in Naperville. I remain closely tied to Champaign and the University. Todd Gleason: That is Mike Tannura with Tstorm Weather at Tstorm.net. You can catch Commodity Week on willag.org by about 6:00 PM this evening or listen on our radio stations over the weekend. Have a good day. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.