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Why the timeline of the Iranian women’s football team defection makes some people liars · The Morning Edition

0:01
S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from
0:04
S1: the Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. This week we're
0:06
S1: going to talk about the incredible story of the Iranian
0:09
S1: women's soccer team, some of whom defected and were given
0:12
S1: asylum in Australia. It was a wonderful story, and it
0:15
S1: also happened to be a really great public relations coup
0:18
S1: for the government. Plus, we're going to discuss the legacy
0:21
S1: of outgoing nationals leader David Littleproud, and we will examine
0:25
S1: the somewhat controversial style of the incoming nationals leader, Matt Canavan.
0:30
S1: Joining me to discuss, we have chief political correspondent Paul Circle,
0:34
S1: as usual, and our national security correspondent, Matthew Knott, both
0:38
S1: of whom joined me from Canberra. Welcome, gents.
0:41
S2: Good morning. Good morning.
0:43
S1: Nodi you have been reporting on this extraordinary story of
0:46
S1: the Iranian women's soccer team, some of whom defected from
0:49
S1: the team this week. Can you just tell us when
0:52
S1: it became clear to Australian authorities that the women were
0:55
S1: under duress in some way and they were being policed,
0:57
S1: or sort of maybe menaced by representatives of the Iranian regime.
1:02
S3: Well, this has been bubbling along for a few weeks.
1:07
S3: The difficult thing with it, of course, is that everyone,
1:10
S3: not just the government, but also the media, have been
1:13
S3: quite limited in what we've been able to say about
1:16
S3: this because of the notion that to publicize this too
1:20
S3: much could potentially blow up the whole operation. To protect
1:25
S3: these women, to give them the choice to stay. So
1:28
S3: it's been a tricky one in the way you've had
1:31
S3: some criticism, perhaps along the way of the government for
1:34
S3: not doing enough and not saying enough. But they were
1:37
S3: then making clear behind the scenes, there's a lot going on.
1:40
S3: So that's been a tricky part of this story because
1:45
S3: there had to be a lot of subterfuge with it,
1:47
S3: because these players have had minders with them, with clear
1:52
S3: connections to the regime and the fact that during a
1:56
S3: war between the United States and Israel and Iran. To
2:00
S3: have players from the national team defecting is a huge
2:04
S3: propaganda loss for Iran in the middle of this war.
2:08
S3: So does the fact that this tournament is happening at
2:11
S3: this time is remarkable. Uh, Tony Burke, the home affairs minister,
2:16
S3: has said he's been across this for weeks. So, say
2:18
S3: when the players arrived a few weeks ago, he had
2:22
S3: had ASIO do preliminary security checks on them so that
2:27
S3: the moment any of them decided they wanted to defect
2:30
S3: and seek asylum in Australia, he could basically do the
2:33
S3: paperwork straight away. But the what I call the rescue
2:38
S3: operation itself really only ramped up towards the end of
2:44
S3: last week. And over the weekend, the deadline pressure came
2:48
S3: on because it was the the last game was happening
2:52
S3: that they were playing and they were leaving the country
2:55
S3: any second. So it really ramped up and there was
2:58
S3: a lot of behind the scenes action over the the
3:02
S3: weekend and then and then on Monday.
3:05
S1: I mean, this is sort of a bit of an aside,
3:07
S1: but there's been reporting that some of the minders might
3:11
S1: have been members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is
3:15
S1: now deemed a terrorist organisation in Australia, because, well, it
3:20
S1: attempted to convene a terrorist attack last year on our soil.
3:25
S1: How is it that these people were even allowed in
3:27
S1: to our country?
3:29
S3: Well, the government says that they say that none of
3:32
S3: the people who came were IRGC officials or even don't
3:38
S3: have close connections to them. They say several people who
3:41
S3: tried to come were knocked back, that they rejected visa
3:45
S3: applications of some of the officials who wanted to come.
3:49
S3: They say essentially that the mind is who were here
3:52
S3: with them are were kind of quote unquote bad people,
3:56
S3: not the type of people we like, but they're not, uh,
3:59
S3: IRGC officials who would be rejected. You obviously have the
4:04
S3: scenario in which if no one came, uh, everyone would
4:07
S3: still be in Iran. So you had to, uh, worked
4:10
S3: out quite well for some of them that they came
4:13
S3: in the first place. Uh, the Iranian diaspora throughout has
4:16
S3: had big concerns about this, specifically about the, the minders
4:21
S3: who were there. They've been kind of naming and shaming
4:24
S3: some of these individuals. They wanted the government to detain
4:29
S3: the minders who were with them, to really investigate them. Uh,
4:34
S3: the government thought that was a step too far, and
4:37
S3: they really wanted them out of the country basically at
4:39
S3: the end of the tournament. So that's been a lively
4:42
S3: debate throughout this about what to do with these handlers
4:47
S3: who were clearly, uh, you know, influencing, uh, some of
4:51
S3: the players and many have said they were feeding them
4:54
S3: misinformation about what would happen to them if they stayed
4:57
S3: in Australia. The women were supposedly being told that they'd
4:59
S3: be sent to a remote island like Nauru if they
5:03
S3: tried to stay. You can imagine how, given the coverage
5:06
S3: of Australia's asylum seeker policies internationally, how they they could
5:11
S3: believe that. Uh, so it's been a process to clear
5:15
S3: up a lot of that dodgy information.
5:17
S4: I imagine it's very hard for the government to try
5:19
S4: and differentiate between the officials who are attached to this
5:22
S4: sporting group. I mean, in the same way as other
5:24
S4: kind of paranoid authoritarian nations like North Korea. Uh, Iran
5:28
S4: is a country where the state apparatus extends across banking, uh, sport,
5:33
S4: all elements of the society. So, I mean, unless the
5:35
S4: government wanted to block the whole team come in, it
5:37
S4: was you're bound to have some, uh, loyalists in the,
5:40
S4: in the show here.
5:41
S1: Yeah, absolutely. What was interesting, I suppose, as these discussions
5:45
S1: were unfolding and as you say, so Tony Burke was
5:48
S1: kind of onto it or, you know, he says he
5:49
S1: was on to it for, for weeks. The issue of
5:52
S1: the security of these women and whether or not some
5:54
S1: of them might want to stay in Australia if they
5:56
S1: if they were allowed to. So that's going on for weeks.
5:59
S1: And then the actual operation itself, I think, sort of
6:01
S1: started unfolding. I think he went up to he went
6:04
S1: up to the Gold Coast where the women were over
6:06
S1: the weekend, last weekend. Meanwhile, you've got Donald Trump who
6:10
S1: gets sort of personally involved in this story. And Paul,
6:13
S1: this is sort of more the political implications of it.
6:16
S1: President Donald Trump, I think on Tuesday, early hours of
6:18
S1: Tuesday morning, tweeted his criticism of the Albanese government for
6:22
S1: not doing enough to help the women. And, you know,
6:24
S1: it was it was quite pointed criticism. And he accused
6:28
S1: the prime minister of making a terrible humanitarian mistake by
6:31
S1: allowing the Iran national women's soccer team to be forced
6:34
S1: back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed.
6:36
S1: So all this is happening under like behind closed doors.
6:40
S1: It doesn't occur to the president of the United States
6:44
S1: that there might be things afoot that he doesn't know about,
6:47
S1: that the Australian government might be across this situation and
6:50
S1: dealing with it delicately. What happens next, Paul?
6:54
S4: Well, I've asked some questions about how this played out
6:56
S4: this week, and it seems just as chaotic as it looked.
7:00
S4: So Donald Trump puts up this Truth social post 1:15.
7:04
S1: On Tuesday morning.
7:05
S4: Tuesday morning, the Prime Minister's preparing for a Canberra sitting week.
7:08
S4: He's also dealing with US and UAE requests for help
7:11
S4: in the Gulf. So the National Security Committee is meeting
7:14
S4: all the time. It's a busy moment for him. He's
7:17
S4: asleep at the lodge. There was a suggestion the day
7:19
S4: after that he might have been alerted by an Australian
7:22
S4: official who had heard from someone in the Trump administration
7:25
S4: that the president would like to have a call with Albanese.
7:28
S4: That wasn't the case. He was asleep at the lodge,
7:30
S4: receives the call sometime between 1:15 and about an hour
7:34
S4: and a half later, when he puts up the subsequent
7:37
S4: post and the prime Minister's phone rings. So he's clearly
7:40
S4: not a person who goes on silent overnight, which maybe
7:42
S4: speaks to his, uh, political animal.
7:45
S1: I should hope not. He's the prime minister.
7:46
S4: He's always on. And he looks at the call and
7:49
S4: it says Donald Trump. And he takes it. And they
7:51
S4: speak for quite a while, apparently mostly on this issue,
7:55
S4: but also about world events and the situation in the Gulf.
7:59
S4: And the Prime Minister explains to him, according to people
8:03
S4: on the Australian side, that we are already taking action here.
8:06
S4: It's all in train. I don't know what the president's
8:09
S4: response was or if he believed it, but a short
8:12
S4: time later he went back on Truth Social and in
8:15
S4: typical Trump fashion, took a little bit of credit and said,
8:18
S4: Albanese is on it. My guy in Australia is going
8:20
S4: to get this done. And another really intriguing element to
8:25
S4: this is what sparked Trump's interest in this issue was
8:28
S4: a post from the Australian US online activist Drew Pavlot,
8:33
S4: who's a well-known figure in Australia for many years. Part of, uh,
8:36
S4: the kind of it's difficult to describe segments of the
8:39
S4: online world these days, but I think I'd fit Drew
8:41
S4: Pavlou into the Save Western Civilization genre of online posters.
8:46
S1: Yeah, I so a lot of our listeners might be
8:49
S1: familiar with him, but basically and not. He can tell
8:51
S1: us about him because not he wrote a really great
8:53
S1: feature about him a while ago, but this some sort
8:55
S1: of rabble rousing social media identity. Drew Pavlou, who is
9:00
S1: an Australian, tweeted something about the Iranian women basically saying
9:04
S1: Albanese wasn't doing enough. And it seems that Trump, who
9:07
S1: is scrolling the internet or scrolling through social, has seen
9:11
S1: this post and he retweeted it. And that's how it's
9:13
S1: come to the attention of President Trump. Is that what
9:16
S1: we understand, Noddy.
9:17
S3: Having written about this as it was happening, it was
9:21
S3: all pretty bizarre because, uh, we heard, uh, that five
9:27
S3: of the women, you know, were being granted asylum. Around
9:31
S3: 9:00 on Monday night. That's when it happened. And word
9:35
S3: started filtering out pretty quickly. And we had to wait
9:38
S3: just a little bit for when we could publish it,
9:41
S3: you know, so to make sure they weren't being put
9:43
S3: at any risk by being publicized, that was a bit
9:46
S3: before 11 p.m.. So it was it had all been
9:51
S3: reported by then. So that's several hours before Trump became
9:55
S3: activated on the issue. So I went to bed and
9:57
S3: knew that five had been granted asylum, then woke up
9:59
S3: and to see that Trump was claiming credit was all
10:01
S3: a bit strange. So yeah, this was an outdated tweet
10:04
S3: by Drew Pavlou who really came to attention as a
10:08
S3: young a university student in Brisbane because of his activism
10:13
S3: against the Chinese Communist Party. And he did many high
10:16
S3: profile actions, some of which were controversial. You know, some
10:21
S3: of his stunts, he really pushed the limits of activism
10:24
S3: to try and raise the profile of what China was
10:28
S3: doing in Xinjiang and, you know, its approach to human rights.
10:32
S3: That was his big passion. He's since come to focus
10:35
S3: on other issues, as Paul said, about a Western civilization.
10:39
S3: He's very engaged with the Middle Middle East conflict. He
10:42
S3: talks a lot about immigration to Australia, so he would
10:46
S3: have a following now in the in the Maga universe.
10:50
S1: Well, clearly he does because he came across President Trump
10:53
S1: some social media feed. I just sort of I mean,
10:56
S1: I think that's a bit of backstory that maybe listeners
10:58
S1: won't know, but I just think it's fascinating to observe,
11:01
S1: once again, how diplomacy is fashioned in the Trump White
11:06
S1: House and how these things come about and how quickly,
11:10
S1: you know, our premier ally sort of jumps into a
11:12
S1: situation about which he knows nothing and sort of takes
11:15
S1: a crack at our prime minister. It's sort of interesting
11:17
S1: and slightly spine stiffening, I would say not. It has
11:21
S1: been a wonderful PR coup for the government. We've got,
11:26
S1: you know, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke sort of talking
11:29
S1: about it quite openly now that the women are here
11:31
S1: and they're safe. He's posted on his social media plenty
11:34
S1: of photographs of himself, with the women all smiling happily
11:37
S1: now that they're free. Is it sort of a good
11:40
S1: way for the government to distract a little bit from
11:43
S1: the fact that we're getting embroiled in what many people
11:45
S1: say is an illegal war.
11:47
S3: Look, there's been a lot of publicity around this. There's
11:52
S3: been a lot of work behind the scenes, including by, say,
11:55
S3: the federal police and officials from the Department of Home
11:59
S3: Affairs who've been putting in a lot of hours and
12:01
S3: emotional labor into this issue. And Tony Burke has been
12:05
S3: all across that, I would say. He has certainly been
12:08
S3: a photographed with these women. You know, they've let it
12:10
S3: be known that he's been there on the scene signing
12:14
S3: these papers. I became a bit worried about it when
12:18
S3: one of the players changed her mind and is now
12:21
S3: seems to have decided to go back to Iran. So
12:24
S3: it's been publicized, uh, that that she was staying photographed.
12:29
S3: Her name's out there. She's got photos with Tony Burke
12:32
S3: celebrating the fact she's defected, and now she's going back
12:35
S3: home to this authoritarian, uh, state. That's that's a bit
12:40
S3: of a worry. The government said they wanted credit for
12:43
S3: this after being attacked for not doing enough. And then, uh,
12:49
S3: as you say, yeah, the war issues going at the
12:52
S3: same time. Uh, it's all it's all happening together.
12:57
S1: And not to be churlish about it because it is
12:59
S1: a really good news story. And I think we're all
13:01
S1: hungry for a good news story. But, Paul, I want
13:03
S1: to bring you in on this. What do you think? Obviously,
13:05
S1: the government has involved us. You know, our personnel and
13:08
S1: our military assets are now deployed, are going to be
13:10
S1: deployed to the Middle East for defensive purposes to to
13:13
S1: Gulf allies. Inflation from oil and fertilizer shortages is going
13:17
S1: to hit us imminently. We're already hearing reports of shortages
13:20
S1: of petrol. And you know, this is our premier ally.
13:24
S1: We're tied to them strategically into the never never really
13:28
S1: because of Aukus. Is this going to. Are we involved
13:32
S1: or are we not involved? What's the message from the
13:34
S1: government in your view?
13:37
S4: We are involved, but to use a term that's probably
13:39
S4: used too much these days. There are clear guardrails around
13:42
S4: our involvement. The government has put itself in the wall,
13:44
S4: but it's been very keen to emphasize the limited defensive
13:49
S4: nature of the posture. We're sending missiles that will help
13:53
S4: strike Iranian drones and missiles out of the sky. There
13:57
S4: will be no direct attacks into Iran. There are no
14:00
S4: boots on the ground. I mean, the US doesn't appear
14:02
S4: to be contemplating boots on the ground.
14:04
S1: Well, Trump Trump has raised that possibility.
14:06
S4: So yeah, in one of them many possibilities raise. And
14:10
S4: then walk back on and let Marco Rubio's had to
14:13
S4: come in and clean up. But it doesn't look like
14:15
S4: that's the likeliest course of action or even close to
14:18
S4: the likeliest. And I don't think the government the government
14:21
S4: apparently has made clear to both the US and other
14:24
S4: allies in the region that this is as far as
14:27
S4: it will go. But because of the because of the
14:33
S4: previous history around regime change operations in the Middle East,
14:37
S4: even a limited posture rises up. This debate about whether
14:41
S4: Australia should be tied as closely as it is to
14:44
S4: the US. The government would come back to that and say, look,
14:47
S4: we are protecting Australian assets in the UAE. There are
14:49
S4: 25,000 Australians there. We have a key air base there,
14:53
S4: and if Australia's strategic and economic interest is to bring
14:56
S4: this war to an end as quickly as possible, it
14:58
S4: makes sense to be there to try and stabilise this,
15:00
S4: to keep it in check, to put as much to
15:03
S4: balance as strongly against the Iranian missile barrage as possible,
15:08
S4: to try and get Iran to stop what it's doing
15:11
S4: to support the Gulf and not allow the Gulf to
15:13
S4: be overwhelmed in a way that might precipitate an elongation
15:17
S4: of this war, which would increase the likelihood of an
15:20
S4: inflation outbreak.
15:21
S3: I think the government's aware all this has to be
15:23
S3: communicated very carefully and clearly about what they are and
15:27
S3: aren't doing, but I don't I don't think it's something
15:30
S3: they're trying to hide or cover up. I think they're
15:32
S3: just as aware of the idea that they're sitting back
15:36
S3: and not doing anything, not contributing. Australians are in the Gulf,
15:40
S3: are facing missile attacks and they want. They want Australians
15:44
S3: to understand the limits of what they're doing, but they
15:47
S3: want it to be known that they are contributing, but
15:49
S3: they're sending some of our assets there. So they're aware
15:53
S3: of both sides of this debate. So it's not something
15:57
S3: they're trying to hide. They just don't want it to
15:59
S3: be seen. As you know, we're all the way with Trump.
16:03
S1: No I wouldn't say they're trying to hide it. I
16:06
S1: would say cynically that they're trying to spin it in
16:08
S1: a very particular way because they know that this is
16:10
S1: such a such a delicate line that they have to
16:12
S1: walk with Donald Trump in the in the white House,
16:15
S1: one of strangely enough, one of the only people to
16:17
S1: sort of express some reservations about us getting into this
16:21
S1: war or any kind of forever war is the new
16:23
S1: nationals leader, Matt Canavan. So I just want to kind
16:25
S1: of pivot to that because that was the other big
16:27
S1: political news of the week. Abruptly, we saw the resignation
16:31
S1: or the abrupt resignation of nationals leader David Littleproud. Paulw.
16:36
S1: You interviewed him at length for this podcast just a
16:40
S1: few weeks ago, and there was nary a whisper of
16:44
S1: him not being totally committed to the to the job.
16:46
S1: What happened?
16:48
S4: No, he was totally defiant when I asked if he
16:50
S4: would contemplate a handover to Matt Canavan or Bridget McKenzie
16:53
S4: if he failed at the upcoming Farrah by election. He
16:56
S4: didn't give a moment's thought to that question, but in
16:59
S4: the same breath, his words of defiance and he is
17:02
S4: a pretty skilled public performer. David Littleproud he's got a
17:05
S4: line for most questions, but in the same interview he did,
17:09
S4: he did kind of speak to The Trouble Ahead, where
17:11
S4: he predicted that his party would probably finish last in
17:14
S4: that by election. This is the one that's been created
17:17
S4: by the resignation of Sussan Ley will be held in May.
17:20
S4: This is a regional New South Wales seat where the
17:22
S4: National Party, which the National Party held for 417 years
17:26
S4: before Sussan Ley entered Parliament. David Littleproud had been saying
17:29
S4: privately to his colleagues for months that the surge in
17:32
S4: support for One Nation was coming at the expense largely
17:35
S4: of liberals in the outer suburbs, and that the nationals
17:38
S4: were retaining their base, or at least performing solidly in
17:42
S4: its in its seats. The by election was going to
17:45
S4: be a clear display of the struggles that even the
17:49
S4: nationals are having with their base, and if they were
17:51
S4: totally wiped out by one nation, that would have been
17:53
S4: a moment of humiliation for Littleproud. He's also been mentally
17:57
S4: anguished in the last few months, dealing with the coalition
17:59
S4: split that he chiefly precipitated. He had another coalition split
18:04
S4: just after the May election, and I think there was
18:07
S4: a growing sense in the in the nationals party room
18:09
S4: that he wasn't the leader for the long run. He
18:11
S4: wasn't under immediate danger, which is why this week really
18:14
S4: surprised his colleagues and has sparked some chatter. As always
18:18
S4: in politics, that might have been a more salacious reason
18:21
S4: for the switch. I'm not suggesting that's true at all,
18:23
S4: but that's what some of his colleagues are speculating. And
18:26
S4: now we move on to the Matt Canavan experiment.
18:28
S1: Yeah, yeah. So that's really, really an interesting um he's
18:31
S1: an interesting sort of presence. I think we're told that
18:35
S1: he was overwhelmingly supported in the nationals party room as
18:38
S1: the new leader. The nationals don't tell us how many
18:40
S1: votes he got. He gave a speech straight afterwards and
18:44
S1: was sort of very nativist sort of speech. We've got
18:47
S1: to have more Australian everything manifest a hyper Australia, more
18:51
S1: Australian babies, more Australian humor, more Australian jokes, more Australian barbecues,
18:56
S1: sometimes often fueled by fossil fuels, which gave me the
19:00
S1: sort of this unwelcome image of Matt Canavan trying to
19:03
S1: serve to his guests sausages that were cooked on coal.
19:06
S1: But then I realised that gas is also a fossil fuel,
19:09
S1: so I'll pass that on. But I mean, it was look,
19:12
S1: I wouldn't say it was a piece of great oratory,
19:14
S1: but what do you think he was sort of trying
19:16
S1: to say there, Noddy? What was the message he was
19:18
S1: trying to convey?
19:20
S3: I guess the thing is also that he hasn't, as
19:22
S3: he's been making very clear, he hasn't had much time
19:24
S3: to prepare for this moment and his debut as leader.
19:27
S3: This all happened so rapidly and he's now got to
19:31
S3: make the case for this job he wasn't necessarily seeking
19:34
S3: right now. There's obviously been a lot of talk about
19:38
S3: how he's basically been the de facto leader, and he's
19:40
S3: been the thought leader, not just in the nationals, but,
19:44
S3: you know, within the broader conservative part of the parliament.
19:48
S3: He's been extremely influential, including recently on the on the
19:52
S3: hate speech laws. He was the one who convinced the
19:56
S3: party to to really turn against that and bust up
19:59
S3: the coalition. I think that's pretty safe space in general
20:03
S3: for the nationals leader to be considering. They're up against
20:07
S3: One Nation, which is running such a nationalistic campaign, you know,
20:12
S3: to just be pro Australia. We're proud of this country.
20:16
S3: The fossil, the fossil fuel line it goes at gets
20:20
S3: at the kind of trolling aspect of Matt Canavan's persona.
20:24
S3: You know, that if it gets people in a in
20:27
S3: a city, Sydney and Melbourne Annoyed, then that's even better.
20:31
S3: That's of course got problems for the Liberal Party and
20:34
S3: the broader coalition. But that's that's very much his M.O..
20:38
S1: Yeah. I mean which which kind of clashes or is
20:41
S1: in conflict or tension with, you know, the other side
20:44
S1: of his personality, which is a very sort of serious
20:46
S1: policy brain. He was very high up as an economist
20:48
S1: at the Productivity Commission. This is a guy who knows
20:51
S1: his stuff and he's actually learned and, you know, something
20:54
S1: of an intellectual. I read the description that he was
20:57
S1: the best policy brain in the nationals party room, which
20:59
S1: I saw as sort of faint praise, but it's actually
21:03
S1: but he is actually a serious policy brain and is,
21:06
S1: you know, recognized as such. Paul, he was very pointed
21:09
S1: about in his criticisms of One Nation that was interesting.
21:13
S4: And he's he's for months been the most assertive really
21:18
S4: coalition thing and not just national figure in taking on
21:21
S4: Pauline Hanson. He'd been for months speaking to Barnaby Joyce
21:25
S4: in private, begging him to stay in the National Party.
21:27
S4: He used to work as Barnaby Joyce's chief of staff.
21:30
S4: He describes Joyce as kind of his political father. And
21:33
S4: so once Canavan got wind that Joyce was considering defecting, Joyce,
21:38
S4: who felt on the outer in the National Party, didn't
21:40
S4: think he could lead it again, wanted to be relevant,
21:42
S4: wanted to put his energy into something else. Canavan had long,
21:47
S4: long conversations with him over weeks and months, telling him
21:51
S4: this is your home. You'll do us great damage if
21:53
S4: you leave us. But then once the flick switched and
21:56
S4: Canavan determined in his mind that Joyce was gone and
22:00
S4: this was pre Joyce actually making the announcement, you started
22:03
S4: to see Canavan as the first national to step out
22:06
S4: of the party line, which was. We love Barnaby. Please
22:09
S4: stay to start attacking his character and to start chipping
22:13
S4: away at Hanson. He's been doing this since November or December,
22:16
S4: but without as much cut through as this week. Obviously
22:18
S4: because he's now leader and he's developed this two track
22:22
S4: argument in countering One Nation. One is to say that
22:25
S4: they're a protest party who have never delivered anything and
22:27
S4: feed off grievance. And the other is to say that
22:30
S4: their brand of race politics is damaging to the Australian
22:34
S4: Australian social fabric. These are brave stances for him to take,
22:37
S4: particularly on race, because he's online community and he's a
22:40
S4: heavily online character. He plays online video games, he's big
22:43
S4: on X, he really follows his online crowd and listens
22:47
S4: to them. They are extremely animated by the immigration issue.
22:50
S4: It's the most salient issue in their minds at the moment.
22:53
S4: So to take that principled position he has has been
22:55
S4: difficult for him in his in his base. But he
22:58
S4: knows what Barnaby Joyce's key fear is in one nation.
23:02
S4: And Joyce talks to people about this. It's that over time,
23:06
S4: if Hanson's views are exposed as racist, if she is
23:11
S4: not able to moderate her language and she's not the
23:13
S4: most articulate person, and he knows that One Nation will
23:16
S4: not appear as the legitimate new mainstream conservative force which
23:21
S4: can come into government or become in opposition, but they'll
23:24
S4: be cast as a kind of backward, provincial racist party,
23:28
S4: which Joyce knows will not command significant support in the
23:31
S4: Australian community. Canavan is chipping at that relentlessly.
23:34
S1: Yeah. So you say that it's a principled position that
23:36
S1: he's taken. And I mean, it does it does show
23:39
S1: strength of character that he is the only really the
23:41
S1: only person I've seen on the coalition side who's very,
23:43
S1: very strongly called Pauline Hanson out for those comments that
23:46
S1: she made about Muslim people recently. But what you also
23:49
S1: seem to be saying is it's actually quite a good
23:51
S1: strategic position for him as well, because he differentiates himself
23:54
S1: from one nation and he paints one nation as an
23:57
S1: extremist party that might possibly be racist and xenophobic, unlike
24:01
S1: the nationals who are, you know, sensible, grown up people.
24:04
S1: I don't know, I'm just putting that out there. I
24:06
S1: just want to talk quickly. Nadia, I'll go to you
24:08
S1: on this about how he's going to be viewed by
24:11
S1: the moderates and the liberals and people who might want
24:14
S1: to go back to voting liberal in the metropolitan seats,
24:17
S1: having voted ttyl's. What's your view on that? How's he
24:19
S1: going to sort of fit within the broader coalition?
24:22
S3: Obviously, very early there. there's a risk, but there's also
24:25
S3: a chance that this will allow the Liberal Party to
24:30
S3: get back a sense of their own identity, perhaps, particularly
24:33
S3: if the leaders can have a productive relationship and get
24:36
S3: along and perhaps divide and conquer would be the absolute
24:39
S3: best outcome here, because the Liberal Party really needs to
24:44
S3: build back what its brand is and what it represents
24:47
S3: to its traditional voters. Ultimately, they're going to be voting
24:51
S3: for a Liberal candidate. Obviously, it all gets mixed up
24:55
S3: together in people's minds, and we've seen this with the
24:58
S3: Barnaby Joyce factor. But there is a scenario in which
25:02
S3: Angus Taylor can, you know, carve out some space as
25:07
S3: as the leader of the Liberal Party. Let Matt Canavan
25:10
S3: shore up support on the right and and take on
25:13
S3: One Nation and do a lot of that quote unquote
25:17
S3: dirty work of doing that. And he can be a
25:19
S3: bit more of a prime ministerial figure. That's the best
25:22
S3: case scenario. There are many ways in which it can
25:25
S3: go wrong. And if Matt Canavan says something that's a
25:28
S3: bit out there for many voters, uh, in the city's
25:32
S3: more moderate voters, uh, they're not they're not going to
25:35
S3: like that.
25:36
S1: Certainly his strident support for fossil fuels would have to
25:39
S1: be a real turnoff to a lot of the voters
25:41
S1: in the Inner Metropolitans.
25:42
S3: Yes, yes, that's that's a big risk. But that's certainly
25:46
S3: the path the the coalition is going a pretty clearly down.
25:50
S1: That that ship ain't turning around anytime soon.
25:52
S4: I'll read the Tim Wilson quote, if helpful on this
25:55
S4: question of whether, uh, Matt Canavan will make it more
25:58
S4: difficult for him in the inner suburban seat of Goldstein.
26:00
S4: Tim Wilson's quote is Matt Canavan is the embodiment of
26:03
S4: a national. And the National should be nationals. So his
26:06
S4: elevation gives us permission to be the Liberals we need
26:09
S4: for urban Australia because retake in Australia requires liberals to
26:12
S4: be liberal. So there is a hope in the moderates
26:15
S4: that there is a period of before you actually need
26:18
S4: to develop a policy agenda for government over the next
26:21
S4: 18 months or so. The nationals can go and win
26:24
S4: support back, and liberals can cleave back towards their base.
26:27
S4: That might be Pollyanna ish, but that's the hope.
26:29
S3: I feel very in sync with Tim Wilson.
26:32
S1: Do you? Oh, that's that's that's.
26:33
S3: Great to reflect on.
26:34
S1: It. Tim Wilson is, um, is a favorite of this podcast.
26:37
S1: He's a good talker. We like him. Thanks, gentlemen. That
26:40
S1: was very, very interesting and illuminating. I'm really interested to
26:43
S1: see how Matt Canavan does and what he does as
26:46
S1: nationals leader. It's going to be an interesting ride. Thanks fellas.
26:49
S1: See you soon.
26:50
S5: Thanks guys. Thank you.
26:54
S1: You can read all of our political news on our
26:56
S1: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong.
27:04
S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are
27:07
S1: overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. Before you go,
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S1: follow Inside Politics and leave a review for us on
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S1: Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.