Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 8 Trades: Five Buys, Three Sells, and the Box Scores That Are Lying to You

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2026 Week 8 Trades: Five Buys, Three Sells, and the Box Scores That Are Lying to You · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: One of my sales this week is a receiver averaging 24 points a game over his last two, and almost all of it came after the game was already over.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're seven weeks in, the trade deadline is getting closer, and a lot of these box scores are lying to you right now.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Some guys got buried by tough matchups, some guys lost their role and got bailed out by a touchdown, and some guys are piling up points in garbage time.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: I went through the target share, route participation, snap share, expected fantasy points, all of it.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got buys and sells for you.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what we're doing today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Buys and sells.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get right into it.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna buy Jeremy Bernard after his first off game since he took over in this new role.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: The Saints matchup on the slot was fine, but overall, yes, it's a tough matchup for wide receivers, so I'm not really worried about it.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: His role didn't really change.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: 19% targets here, not bad.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Still ran around 97% of dropbacks.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: He's an every down receiver.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Now the raw targets were down this game because the whole passing game was down.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Aaron Rodgers only threw 30 passes this week.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: The week before, he had 33 completions.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: He averages 38 pass attempts per game.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And this offense is just designed to keep him busy, right?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: The Steelers have the third highest pass rate in the league, top 10 and 11 personnel, three receivers on the field.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be moving out in the slot on the outside.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Even when Michael Pittman's back, he's gonna be on the field.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: I watched all the film for the last like couple games, and there's a lot of design targets going his way, and that's really what you want from a wide receiver.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: I also want to buy Brock Purdy.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: He was the QB two through the first four games this year, and over the last three, he's just the QB 13.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're looking at just box scores, it looks like he fell off a cliff.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: But look who he's been throwing to.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Without DeMarcus Robinson since week two, Debo Samuels since week five, Mike Evans since week six, basically his whole wide receiver rooms.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: There's only so much you can do throw into a practice squad.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: And he still had a touchdown to Jordan Watkins call back this week.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: He's still doing his job over the last three weeks.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: He's sixth among qualifying quarterbacks, in expected fantasy points per game.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: And the gap between what he should have scored and what he actually scored is the sixth largest over that stretch.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: As those guys get healthy, Purdy gets back to being the high-end quarterback one he was to start the year.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm buying him like he's priced like a QB2.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also buying Derrick Henry.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: His last two weeks have been rough.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: He was up against the Browns and the Bengals, relatively tough matchups overall from a fantasy perspective.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: And he had to do with Tyler Huntley, a quarterback.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, their offense isn't at full capacity.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: And both of those are about to change.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Lamar is working his way back this week.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: The schedule opens up big time.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Over the next four games, Henry gets the Bills, who have the third most fantasy points per game to running backs, the Chargers at eighth, the Panthers at second.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: So one move you can try is if you have Josh Jacobs and you want to reduce your risk, see if you can turn him into Henry by adding a little something on top.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a crazy ask right now, and Henry's managers might be frustrated enough after these last two weeks to just take it.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna buy Jordan Mason for cheap if I can.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Aaron Jones was good for us this year, but between the reports about his knee and Mason finally getting healthy, what happened this week wasn't really a surprise.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Mason stepped right in, took 65% of the snaps and opportunities.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Jones went from 80% of the snaps and 86% of the carries from week two to week five, all the way down 27% of snaps and 33% of the carries.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, he did leave the game for a little bit with a knee injury, but it seems to me like Mason is the guy to start in Minnesota from here on out.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: And the good news is it was a quiet game.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: 15 carries, 68 yards, no touchdowns.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: That box score is gonna keep his price down.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now he's gonna need touchdowns to really hit, you know.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be honest about that.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: But at this price, you might be getting a you know, low end RB2 at the highest price with high end RB2 upside over the next few weeks, right?
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I would get him before the touchdowns show up.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: I want to buy Luther Burton.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: He's been producing, he's the wide receiver 14 of the last five games and being the wide receiver 26 through weeks one and two.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: But he's only getting one more target per game now than he was in those first two weeks.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: And the role still isn't full time, he's running around on just 70% of dropbacks.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: So if his manager is looking at the targets and wondering how long that can last, that's your opening.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: Because that role has room to grow.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Cole Komet is dumb for the year, and that could cut into how much the Bears go heavy.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: They've run the second most place with two tight ends on the field this year, and the fourth most with three tight ends on the field.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Fewer tight ends means more receivers on the field and more routes for Luther Burden.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: And when he gets routes, he makes them count.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: His 26% targets per route run is 16th among qualifying receivers, and his 2.7 yards per route run is eighth.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: More routes means more targets, and with that kind of efficiency, he can be an elite producer if the role opens up.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't really call it a buy low, right?
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm buying him now, so you're not paying full price in a few weeks because his price is gonna go up.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to sell Quinshawn Junkins if I can.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: He just scored 23 fantasy points, 12 more than the 11 his workloads should have got him based on his expected fantasy points.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's the second largest gap among running backs this past week.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the workload is the problem, right?
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Through the first five games without Dylan Samson, Junkins averaged 61% of the snaps, 72% of the carries, a 34% route rate, and a 14% target share.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's a great role.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: With Samson back, his snap share fell to 52%, and his target share dropped to 3%.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: That receiver work was keeping him afloat because he hasn't done much on the ground.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: He's bottom 10 in yards per carry.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: So without the targets, he needs the run game to carry him, but I'm not betting on that.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna sell him off the 23-point game while it's still fresh.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: There might be an opportunity to sell RJ Harvey if you can.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: He scored 14 points this past week, nine more than the five his workload should have gotten him.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's the fifth largest gap among running backs.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: The workload took a hit with Jonah Coleman back.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: Coleman took over the Broncos backfield on Sunday.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: Harvey fell to a 25% snap share, 14% of the carries only.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: He ran about on just 25% of dropbacks.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: To be fair, he got the two-minute work, most of the third downs.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: He's like their primary passing down guy, but he's more of a role player.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: As long as Coleman's leading this backfield, that's what Harvey is.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: And Denver's offense isn't good enough to make that role matter for fantasy.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Harvey's got four top 24 finishes in his last five games, so people can still use the name.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: So I would use that, use the game log.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: And if someone will pay for those finishes, you know, as like a solid RB2, I would sell him.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also gonna try to sell Trey Tucker.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last two games, the Raiders have run 125 plays, they've been trailing on 112 of them.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's 90% of their plays from behind.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: In the first five games of the year, they ran just 115 plays from behind total.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's a 35% rate.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: And look at what that's done for Tucker.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: In those first five games, he averaged 10 points a game, sprit pretty evenly between the first and second halves.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last two, he's averaging 24 points a game, but just 5.3 of that comes in the first half.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: The other 18.7 comes after halftime, and 16.1 in the fourth quarter alone.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Could the Raiders keep falling apart and chase games the rest of the year?
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: But those last two box scores were built in garbage time, and I'm not counting on that moving forward.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna sell them while it still looks like he's on the verge of a breakout or something.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's it for this episode.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: If this helps you, make sure to subscribe to the channel or the podcast.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Wherever you're listening, it helps a ton.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's the best way to catch these every week.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you later this week for starts and sits for week eight.