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NGX: Dead cat bounce or Consolidation? /Undervalued stocks · Green Ticker Tales

• 1:13
  okay good afternoon good evening everyone from wherever you are uh around the world uh we'll be discussing in a bit discussing the state of the market uh with crypto senko uh this is an impromptu live session hi isaac good morning please confirm if you can hear me i think uh i think we've gotten it right this time i've tried to join uh a few minutes ago
• 5:20
  and um it's it's uh i tried to join earlier this week and it didn't go through so isaac says you can hear me all right great all right okay let's let's get this going as we um as we wait for tenko to join us so i was last week all right i see runner running money 9073 welcome welcome welcome thank you for joining
• 5:56
  So let's get the ship going. Let's talk about the markets. Last week was, let's pull out the numbers. Luckily, we have the NGX weekly report out in good time. And let's see. I know the markets were down this week, but let's see what's the best performance thought for the outcome week. And so when I say this week, I mean the outcome week. So what do we have? Let's push out the numbers.
• 6:29
  Feel free to drop your questions. I can see the questions. I can see the YouTube chat. So we're good to go. What do we have? Last week, the All Share Index fell by 1.21%, which isn't a big decline. Index down by 1.21%. Best performing stock was Airtel Africa, which I find strange because Airtel Africa is such an illiquid stock.
• 7:04
  i think frankly speaking the the firm needs to managements of fm needs to work on their um either work on making the stock more liquid on the nigerian end or maybe look at the listing because there's no points i doubt that stock traded typically on an average day my trade maybe five ten units uh days so a tip tip on food does it signify a change of momentum
• 7:31
  in the market a dead card bounce let's see what the technicals uh tell us about tip um by the way is short form for the initiates uh plc so let's see if we can pull it up really pop up to spell the entire thing out the initiates or do i look for tip i'm not seeing it on my my chart so let's go to
• 8:12
  initiate fields in trading view i wonder what the ticker symbol on trading view okay i see senko has just joined uh senko i'll bring you up to the stage senko can you hear me let me see is there a way to bring you up to this stage how do you do that um okay yes you got it yeah i hear you now senko loud and clear oh okay okay because i was thinking um you could hear me i was saying tip
• 8:49
  yeah someone had asked a question about uh tip and maybe i'll just answer the question then we can get right into uh the matter let's see what uh the technicals tell us about tip tip was one of the top five gainers i believe yesterday we had five stops appreciate by uh ten percent i'm looking at the chat at least uh on the on the daily the chats are neutral but maybe i need to let me go a bit further and let's look at the chats
• 9:19
  terms of classic and fibonacci tib closed at 25.95 cover is shared um if you're looking at it on the classic side of things that will put the stock at just uh just around the just above the s1 zone if you're looking at it at the fibulacci level put the stock around s2 so depending on whether you're using classic or fibonacci at 25.85
• 9:47
  tip is between s1 and s2 support zone i'm looking at the averages the moving averages um the moving averages are mostly so ema sma mostly sell you see a bit of buy when it comes to the 100 day ema 100 day sma 200 am and sma but if you're looking at the short averages or the short shorter term average is 10 20 30 50 both ema
• 10:18
  and sma um they are both saying sell so i mean i think the movement of tip will depend on the movement of the overall market um if you have the overall market go up then you might see a tip continue to rally but let's also look at the overview let's look at uh a little of my charts uh i want to look at the five year or the one one year chart for tip let's see if we can figure out where the support zone is
• 10:49
  um i'm looking at the one year chart and support zone seems to be the 14.95 range but if you look at the six months chart for tip uh your support zone cover comes in around the 19 18 19 20. uh unfortunately looking at i'm using trading view i can't figure out my um i don't see three months chats here if not three months would have been nice to be a bit more
• 11:18
  accurate but whether you use six months whether you use uh one year uh key support some probably i mean i'm looking at april at april this stock was today around 1920 so we're actually not far from maybe what i would call the short-term support because the stock is at um about 25.85 i think the highest that's done this year at least in the last one year is 39.45 we've had quite a bit of a
• 11:47
  deep in the stock um so uh i i don't quite see um i think unfortunately it's not possible to share my screen but um i think having gotten the hang of things now uh probably what i'll do sometime in the coming trading week i'll probably pop up and share my screen um i would share my screen i can do tears right now i want to want to converse right so senko over to you last week
• 12:15
  market was down by 1.21 percent uh are we seeing a minor recovery or are we seeing a dead cat bounce in the market uh very beautiful question um good morning good afternoon good evening from wherever you are watching us from uh overall if you recall uh when um i spoke about the asi um consolidating around the
• 12:45
  250 000 so again in technical and in technical terms we call it uh distribution zone i started um my concerns were um the asr was losing that um 250 000 points psychological level and this was around april when i wrote about um a detailed analysis on my ex and that wasn't sorry around me i mean
• 13:14
  me and i kept um talking about slides i can't on the s i you know um see some corrections and now after running i've been running um i haven't um run um to about 60 percent um uh i was already drawing that warning of making people understand that hey we've come to this zone and there seem to be distribution and you know when you understand um
• 13:44
  when you talk about market um market cycle and the faces of market cycle you know when there's a consolidation you know when there's an accumulation you know that for an accumulation means that okay people are buying and it's just made a matter of time before we see a breakout and a continuous uptrend we saw that we are doing um that um you know accumulation around the 400 440 to 500 region before
• 14:12
  got a massive breakout and i had around as high as um two two thousand two thousand and twenty four um naira per share um for the asr2 we saw that and um that was in may i i think the analysis was born in may and i started um you know um warning and i gave two levels and i was unfortunate i can't um share my screen so i'm you can actually share your screen let me see i can uh
• 14:40
  i can adjust the settings so you can do so how do you do that um let's try to figure out this how do you this is uh can i see if you can share your screen um okay if you can share my screen have you shared your screen uh actually so hold on i'm trying to share the entire the entire of my uh okay see
• 15:13
  so i i can be able to navigate so confirm if you can see i'm seeing my screen i can't see your screen but i'm not sure if i've i'm not quite sure how to do these settings okay wait wait i see your screen now i see your screen very clear is it clear i'll ask the audience i don't think the audience can see it because i'm looking at youtube i'm not quite sure how to how to get it to your screen okay i think i know what to do i'll add that
• 15:44
  and yes we don't perfect so i've added your screen to stage oh okay you've added this stage right you can see your screen now good okay oh beautiful beautiful so okay all right good good good um so let's just go back to the air side so oh let's go now when we're in the distribution phase so let me pick my tool and show people what i meant by the distribution after i hit i'm eating
• 16:12
  254 000 points right uh we got an instant rejection at 254 000 points and yes i continue to you know um distribute around it too and when there's a distribution the next thing that follows is when people um the big guys are trying to you know um rotate and get out of the market you know you'll be selling around and you say oh um the market is very liquid
• 16:40
  you can buy and sell around um these prices you people were buying and selling i'm already on one nine two thousand one nine nine eight one eight one seven one six very well beautiful so the distribution phase was yeah and the next thing that follows the distribution phase is a breakdown from that channel because that region will no longer be able to hold and right now the 250 000 is not looking at like a a a resistance level
• 17:10
  right now the resistor level which is not already even far away and the analysis that i gave i said two levels that will come in handy i was i was left to me i was only um expecting that 239 000 hold uh because again i was expecting like a normal minor correction that we see um the market do if you check what the market has done in recent like if you look at months or month to date i mean
• 17:36
  for monthly analysis like when there's where there are corrections you know for the ngs from september or in um something or something around may or june um you see that the maybe the sr for that model those maybe at least maybe three to five percent like averagely but again the si has extended its um losses um from the 254 000 if i layer that down to this region now the si i mean to this part because again we got a slight bounce
• 18:05
  now the si is down by nine point nine two percent but before this again if you remove the eto um you know the other bullish run on friday would have said that oh the asr was down by 11.55 percent now should the asr come back to 223 thousand we'll be seeing that the asl um for like um from um the all-time line to current level yes i'll be losing like 12.
• 18:34
  um point eighteen percent now yes like i said it's still fine the si is still fine see we lose this structure if we lose the structure then there's a problem that's why and i said in my analysis we lose the 223 000 the next best region i i just think that yes i could do is uh maybe we'll come back to the 200 000 um 200 000 psychological level again between 200 000 to 204 that's the next place
• 19:04
  uh and with those miles of time that we might even just come and eat the 197 195 but i don't see that happening uh but anything again again like i said in the market can happen but these possibilities are here that's if we lose the zone now what do i mean by if we lose the zone if we lose the zone and this um sell-off continue and maybe um the market is getting a feel at that now
• 19:26
  if we lose it does mean that maybe 50 is not going to have nigeria to the index and if this is not in nigeria to uh 15 not in nigeria to the frontier in my market index since we're still unclassified um i would say uh who might does be into another um trouble i'm sorry i'm trying to pick up a tool uh was it was it was it okay pat okay now what i'm saying is if we lose something like this that i expect like a retest and a continuation
• 19:55
  bank to this side so but for now this is not i'll say this is not a bearish retest for now because we're still trading um around the uh the levels the key levels are but the the angels will have a lot of work to do like the asr will have a lot of work to do in terms of um recovering these losses that means um the likes of um cement dangote uh
• 20:24
  uh they need to start um you know um recovering those losses and we start seeing that and this region now the 239 000 region now has not turned into um a i've not gone into a resistance so for now it's not a bearish retest see we lose this now when we lose this we do there will be a breakdown then i expect that market go for the bearish test uh continuation back to this
• 20:52
  um key snr level uh so um for the asl so a lot of things have you know a lot of things when you look at this like what was happening in the market why the market is um um this way and all those things like that you ask you know you ask some certain questions and um um then you think about okay what's happened in the market now there were stories
• 21:23
  as to why like as to what happened really happened in the market um number one story like there were three things that really affected the markets number one was um like i said i i will not stop mentioning the private placement of um the dangote uh refinery you look at the download so it sucked up um liquidity um from from the market and uh it was not really um a good thing
• 21:51
  um some houses were selling off their securities we're going to talk about security exam is made stocks bound you know for them to form their positions and definitely it's going to affect the market you know about two things again that are really and that affected the market uh we'll talk about again is the um pity um we're getting but that's again the news was already known by the foreign participants the news that was why we're getting this um large sale of
• 22:20
  before the announcement came that oh nigeria is under them we'll get our final verdict in august that it's under review but the market already knew and knew um about that news and that was like it's um they sell the news um events and we we got that um so two things i'll come back to that um this thing there but maybe you might have further questions or might want to touch more on the 50 the t plus one
• 22:48
  um cycle but we need to even explain to people why um um why that's a plus one again we were from the onset charles already said it on the x page he was the first person that started questioning why are we rushing to t plus one when we have never like utilized or fully you know enjoyed um the t plus two kind of thing uh settlement and this again also
• 23:13
  also distorts the market in terms of the liquidity flow everything especially you're talking about a frontier market i mean nigeria is not yet a frontier market like and like an unclassified market where everybody is like oh they want liquidity like our market you just have to manage liquidity and issues our market is never efficient in terms of
• 23:35
  um liquidity efficiency it's not so and i'm doing again a t plus um a t plus one means that you are also you just want to kill the market um i'm not i'm not saying that t plus one is bad nobody's saying t plus one is but doing it too quick um without even talking to these main guys that shows that our market and again this again has shown that our market is not even largely driven by um these domestic funds that were they have been saying
• 24:02
  because the big guys when they don't come here they are smaller in number but when they do transactions when they do voodoo we can ask your brokers when they do this volume you you you feel the impact because they are combating their dollar when they are missing when that money coming um
• 24:28
  and if you don't check the fpi on mbs we can also i can pull it pull up the screen um if you check what the fpi what we're doing and every other thing and if you check the fbi for those that the foreign guys that traded in shares those are around 75.3 million dollars he didn't hit in the market 75.3 million dollars as reported by um mbs when you look at this this kind of thing and you convert that money in from uh
• 24:56
  you convert that kind of and you convert that money you know what we're talking about here it's not um it's not charge play money i'm not saying that our our local institutions can and do not have to um i'm not saying they don't have the capacity they do but again there's a limit you look at the pen com and there's an art like you look there's a minimum that you can do so these are the things that we need to to put into our into the right perspective
• 25:24
  and also again the other thing again was um uh again did that did that like keep on saying this one and all those if though that's still that's still um long term that's still um again we need to call that out because if should that um swap deal and i explain it for those um you can go to our x and the gritty car and such um for i think when did we talk about um the old code structure
• 25:53
  i spoke about this two weeks ago or so i think yes yes something like that so you can go there and watch them listen to that distance because again there's a lot i broke it down i broke down the old school structure i even broke the swap deal um the nigeria did so i don't want to waste time talking about that overall markets like i said were still at a very good um region the asist bullish for me
• 26:22
  but for now i'm short-term bearish like i said to one person i responded to someone i'm short-term bearish but overall in the long run like i'm still like the chat still shows that the asl is still um it's still it's still respecting key levels i still respect still bullish and there's no cause for alarm see we lose this zone and if we lose this zone and i expect that the big boys
• 26:48
  start coming in to start mopping up this um from these prices because again you you um many of these uh uh stocks are sorry uh yeah i hear you saying google there's no background noise when you tap your screen i don't know if that's oh oh okay oh maybe i allowed you you know your screen or tapping your mic yeah oh okay okay okay
• 27:18
  how will i not i need to tap my screen and if i'm is it bad it's gone now how about now gone yes okay just try not to tap but either your screen or your mic you're tapping something from time to time so if you don't tap it like now i can see you moving your cursor there's no tapping sound so it'll be good now it is only when i want to draw a line but i will try not to draw any line so like to not make any noise yeah okay so
• 27:49
  as a case revealed like okay um then you know many of these um equities are are mispriced you know yeah again i don't want to start showing people about what um well yeah again i always tell investors your number one goal is yes you want to make money but your number one goal should be risk management before making money if you know you are doing anything you must apply risk management to whatever thing they are doing
• 28:18
  especially for a volatile um you can lose like many of the equity um stocks especially for the insurance companies they are down 60 70 65 percent their sooner assurances has been in a two-year bear market multi-vm market run so you are again you have to manage your work again and invest what you can afford to lose so that you won't um be like crying and every other thing but do i see opportunities in this market of course i see opportunities in this market if we get this
• 28:48
  um fitzy still under the under the table and everything is good then we should see a very um strong reversal again but we still have to throw caution again to oh dangote refinery um ipo coming up in september and now yesterday where we saw that the shareholders have approved for dangote cement um listing um to the listing process should can be um should be carried on
• 29:16
  which is good for the market which is good for dangote cement i mean i'm being listed on the non-stock exchange so i um we should see um some some some movement that's if the market conditions are right and if um there is no other thing um disrupting the market and i said something again that the only thing the only catalyst that i see that can propel this market is emptying
• 29:42
  and i and i keep on saying it but people don't and i will explain maybe during the course of uh um i will i'm doing the course of uh the show on the during the course of this discussion i'll explain why mtn uh who um who might be the major catalyst to this market for now market is yes market bounced but if we remove i always discount always discount ether because ether is illiquid and
• 30:11
  i don't even want to discuss about them the only major thing is does the list if you know you don't um if you don't you know you don't want nigerians to hold your stocks and um rather than putting us under that stress by by going to the london stock exchange how many people have the opportunity to go to the lsc and buy from the lsc what platform even give many people that um that opportunity not you can't just one platform i mean some platform but the platform again you must maintain a standard
• 30:41
  minimum accounts of 10 000 euros that's a standard account and how many engineers can afford 10 000 euros i'm using an example and for instance that's again uh how many i just can afford it that's a very big question uh mark so we all this is not a bearish um a dead cat bounce for now not a dead cat bounce it's a dead car buzz is when we lose this level and we retest it maybe we lose it i see market rally back again back to this
• 31:11
  so this zone now becomes a resistance when we lose this level because the resistance and we continue to go down and it's not going to look very good begin meaning that the asi might be extending uh losses back and 17 like in three months yes i oh sorry sorry about that noise um the s are losing like 20 percent that's not then we're already going into a bm market um territory if the asi loses that
• 31:41
  um and and i i let me not say i do not see that anything can happen in the market but i do not see that happening for now because the conditions are good i expect that the markets now would be well who's will rally and uh well that that's for maybe in um during the summer they're pushing off again um um when question of them in in september because we don't know how the ipo uh will be but for now we should expect consolidation
• 32:10
  uh around this level um before we now start seeing a major bounce then there's the pre-election um scare again that we need to put also uh at the back of our mind so for now we are in a critical level and the asm must not lose that critical zone over to your moment yeah so i'm just wondering that from the fundamental level from the fundamental basis because um my pre-market coverage of the market
• 32:39
  you you can see i mean when you look at a walkover i'm not sure what is i think should be back above 300. uh you look at the zenith bank as i think 104 and some fraction fundamentally speaking these stocks are quite cheap so what should a fundamental investor with maybe 12 24 or maybe 24 to 36 months timeline do do you um
• 33:09
  Do you cost average or do you wait for that pullback? Because, I mean, I look at some of these numbers. Zenit is trading at what, 104. Book value for Zenit, I think, is 120 or so. Even if you don't want to use book value, you want to use cash flow per share. I think cash flow per share for Zenit should be around 118, 129. So a lot of these names are cheap fundamentally.
• 33:36
  does long wait for a pullback or do you just start cost averaging from here very very beautiful question on the map so for as a long-term investor um now your goal for long-term investor is am i i always tell people this thing as a long term am i really owning this kind of company with good amount of units and a long-term investor what i would expect key investors to be doing for long-term investors to average down
• 34:08
  for their value stocks you've seen trading at a cheap valuation buy at key levels not just because you a because the price is trading at this price you want to rush them no because they can be another 10 to 20 percent but at key levels and again this price is the way webco is even trading out currently again the analysis i wrote i said with anything below 300 which is trading at um 200 um and now trading at 291
• 34:37
  king of region was 294. so of course i i i will start averaging my positions on on on wapu and as a long-term investor you need to have how many units do i want to buy for this company that's the question you want to ask yourself you know that what okay when i game we are factoring that oh this company is not coming anytime soon to the market even if the company is even coming to to raise money and all those things you have a target unit that you want to buy for this company
• 35:07
  and you know that okay i'm not going it's not i'm not doing it in tranches or not in bulk i'm not buying it oh instantly at there are times like this you must have cash at that moment um to pick up these prices and many of these were big stocks that you just mentioned they have them are mispriced right right now market is already mispricing them so our experts um um long-term investors to be doing it by at these levels by the key levels and
• 35:36
  so that it's um water down their their average i mean the average cost price and also increase their their units in the company because when the company is going back or reversing um back to the to those levels definitely these companies will break their previous all-time and create new all-timers okay let's let's move to the insurance space um the insurance sector is in the it's in a tight corner
• 36:07
  Tight in the sense that you have some of them that are in the market. I think Regency Alliance Insurance has its rights issued in the market at the moment. You may have a few other players in the insurance space warming up to raise money. I don't know how they're going to be doing it because I believe July is the deadline to meet the new capital requirements.
• 36:33
  How do you think that sector will play out? And this is a sector that I think is probably one of the worst performing sectors of the NGX, I believe, this year. So clearly insurance and I think oil and gas are one of the worst performing sectors, if you can correct me if I'm wrong. How do you see this sector playing out? For those that need to raise money, how or if can they raise money in the bear market?
• 37:05
  um again everything for insurance i will first start blaming what's their name what's this person's name i'll blame the regulators i will blame the regulators for um all these things that is happening in the insurance space no communication clarity is next to none this index um the insurance index let me even tell you here today sorry let me
• 37:33
  clear i just want to be sure that what i'm doing on the screen is almost similar to what um these guys my people um sense to me um so how all these things both down to the regulator the nikon um guys not communicating their part um their plan and uh we got a double okay triple bottom around this zone we got a bounce and this is already playing accordingly as to how
• 38:02
  i said this is it um this um this is the worst performing um index uh that's the ngx inx and now as we were talking about uh um the insurance i quickly pull it pull it up from my screen first i'll first um and blame the nikon for not coming up with um cogent or coming up with clarity you know uh for this for these companies um many of these insurance companies i mean some of them are
• 38:31
  are capitalized already and while some are not capitalized and now if you look at um how for instance universal insurance is struggling universal insurance cannot raise money you can't raise money in a bear market or in a market that is facing um multi-corrections it's going to be difficult because a lot again um investors will not even they won't be willing to buy what you are quoting as the valuation of um of your stock like
• 39:00
  in terms of how much um people should pick up their rights they would rather go to the floor to buy it if they still believe that oh these companies um have something fundamentally strong an example is a region's uh uh um the regular links um again market fell they kept and also the companies to also have the blame in this number one how can you not release your 2020 correct me if i'm wrong as we're going to release that 2025 afs no they have not
• 39:30
  they have not so these are the issues and it's even a kind of a red flag and i'm disappointed in them because after i don't know why a company like that without caliber not be able to release their result this is we're going into the seventh month these are the issues and there's no sanctioning from the ngx no suspension from the ngx that such a company has not released their results and just still allow them to trade or go on these are the issues
• 40:01
  and they're now when they saw that the market was now going down they just quickly then the one of a sudden they announced that they were going to um um start their rights you don't do that during a beer market where people don't have money or people are hurting in the market because of um um the prices that we have seen it's very difficult for you to raise money during the beer market it is very difficult everywhere acts everywhere
• 40:28
  um even no investor will want to pull money when the market is um downtrending like just for a short time short period of time that is downtrending or there's a pullback a serious pullback a serial um a good correction that's going on in the market nobody will want to pay um pay for for for such for such company they would rather go buy it on the on from the floor and that's what we're seeing on uh for um the insurance space so it's going to be it's rough
• 40:56
  uh i know i know some of them are happy with what they are seeing they did as long as um nothing is happening to their you know to their business and every other thing some of them are happy no statement no anything and this is this is the result and should the n a m and the uh edges um year to date is 11 so should they lose this zone should they lose this you know should they lose
• 41:24
  This key zone of 1,045.5, of which we bounced. Again, you can see, if you remember, again, we spoke about this when we launched this live. We spoke about that when we launched this live, right? The live, that was last week. And I said something like, this is not going to look good if the NGS INS loses this one.
• 41:53
  one thousand and forty five point five point the next zone that we are looking at is we are coming back to the job oh sorry that's not me we're coming back to the january 2025 monthly eye of 899.7 point you know what that means meaning meaning that many of these companies i mean that means the likes of them name even name was losing name insurance uh consolidated
• 42:21
  you know i'm calling them aiko aiko was down i could really pull down the index that was like as of last week before they recovered on friday and slightly recovered on friday not that they even recovered because they've lost their key zones too now mean that all these guys will bring down this index again back to the 899.7 and don't forget this index from its previous all-time high in august that's august 2025. this index is down by
• 42:51
  this index is down by 37 percent from its previous all-time high and as of even friday during the intraday trading it was down by 39 percent doesn't mean that this index will not be down by 47 percent or 48 percent that's more kaboku for individual insurance stock so it will be difficult for investors and i'll say investors yes there are still opportunities in the insurance space and i still believe that this is the the sector that will meet multi-millionaires um
• 43:19
  because yes it is a laggard now does not mean that in the future this this guy will not run again this is where i see the major um you know the major opportunity who would have thought that um the fmcu would just overtake the bank as of last year now even this year the oil and gas started you know first quarter and every other thing so again all i'm just trying to say is that like
• 43:51
  What I'm just trying to say is that all these things, when we look at all these factors, NICOM is to be blamed. Companies that do not take their business serious, especially for regularities that have not released their results, also we need to blame them too. And anybody that is trying to raise money during this bear market, I mean, not a bear market, let me mind my statement. During this correction phase that we are having, this correction phase that we are having,
• 44:21
  uh in the market i don't think that person is serious and i don't think that they'll be able to raise um that kind of money you but we saw the likes of link asho link asho was raising money during the bull bull market and they did well i saw that they it was over subscribed so um for for linker show but for the other guys i just i don't know it would be very difficult for them to raise this money from the market because people will longer will not rather buy um on the floor
• 44:49
  when they are saying that the prices are cheap on the floor and um if i were some persons or if i were some of these insurance companies again their time is the time is no longer on their side they just need to work with the market and be realistic to what the price of market is saying in reality thank you right um so let's look at some of the names that haven't quite uh dropped in the market
• 45:21
  or maybe haven't dropped to the levels people are expecting i mean look at the likes of uni level nigeria uac at what point are we going to start to see those stuff today because for some people their prayer is i need to see those stops deep so i can get in when are we going to see some of the names that haven't really moved but you would expect to move i mean when you think of it in in a market where you have the had the upside down movements in the
• 45:50
  liquid stocks or license fundamentally sound and liquid stocks um have moved such as your mtn nigeria your zenith your gt code you've seen the swings in those stocks at what point do we see the fundamentally sound but less liquid stocks at what point do we see those stocks start to move downwards if the market uh continues to dip because when you think of it
• 46:20
  and this market was in fact the fact that you had a eternal africa appreciating by 20 this week and still the market went down by a bit over one percent it means that if you don't have any movement big cap movement next week we most likely could see that flattish movement and that when do we see those these likes of unilever and co start to move in the market very very nice question very very difficult question um
• 46:49
  as of yesterday i was telling the whatsapp folks yesterday that pay more attention so i was advising the whatsapp folks now pay more attention to companies that have been holding steadily and they've been holding their own and you mentioned you rightly mentioned usc and uni level even though uni level two still shed some blood um that was over um the last two weeks uh uscn has held its own um i don't see us here like
• 47:19
  dropping so so um so much um again results coming um a lot of things are going on uh i i can tell you for a fact that um uscn um they have a market maker um so even for the banks too it would have been bad they have market makers they have their market makers that have kept this um steadily um for the banks so that's why you see that banks are very very liquid
• 47:49
  uh so for us um when this when we start seeing these um crazy um deeps then yes we can say that yes there might just be um panic mode that would out then i would call it a capitulation mode where everybody would like to when we had that in um november i would call it them where everyone like wanted to just get out of the market the foreign guys especially
• 48:14
  They were just dumping and dumping and they were just throwing everything into the system that they didn't even care. They just wanted to exit. That would be a capitalization move and it suppresses all stocks and all prices. But now, all I'll just say is that for USCN, so for now, all I'll just say is that for USCN, the company is fundamentally strong.
• 48:45
  they are building something that is very strong i'm talking in terms of fundamentals even in technicals i was expecting that it should have you know we should have been seeing this zone clean up this and fail that value imbalance or fair value gap um around the 141 147 we should have filled that zone before um usn has held its own and i'm still trading maybe sub on 185 but has not lost like 10 era or more than 10 era in the other book
• 49:13
  But we don't use other book price. We use what the NGS. So it closed flat for two consecutive weeks. It has closed flat for about 185. The moment when we start seeing UACN, and again, if you look at Unilever too, Unilever is when the virus has spread across. And we start seeing again, MTN going back again, doing minus 10 on the average day, Aradep, Boas Cement. So the virus will spread again to UACN because a lot of people will be scared.
• 49:42
  if this one is doing a minus 10 let me quickly keep my profit let me just take my profit and i mean i'm good money um from this company let me just um stay on the side of um you know caution and um take my profit and you start seeing that the uh usc uh or unilever country um starts to um drop or tank up for unilever so we're about to fill this smaller gap zone that was created between 138
• 50:10
  to 122 and 122 naira per share um about and that's also being um it also consolidated for this week around the 126 um naira zone also we're expecting that um this should be trading around the 100 psychological level to 109 which would be a very good um point for me if i'm buying this i'll be looking at um topping up yeah since i already have it topping up around this this zone
• 50:38
  topic around this zone means that unilever is cheap and you know about now it's no longer um it's not pricey um as when it was trading around the 172 naira per share this is its own red naira stock um if as the case may be but when when we start seeing this movement is when the big boys starts you know again pulling that uh um crazy offers uh now we'll start seeing uac and sassy unilever
• 51:07
  and the virus the bad um you know the bad vibes spread to these um companies not that they are bad just that people just want to take their profit and stay on the side of them they want to be cautious and they don't want to um lose money on the table and um keep the profit and that's when you're not starting them usc um drop just normal um the normal correction for these companies but again they've been very strong during this period and i said it on the whatsapp that
• 51:37
  companies that are very strong and if the market recovers today these companies we mean 10 10 10 or 9.9 or 9.5 or anything every day or maybe every two days they'll be meeting such percentage because um they've all held their own and um they will be running um riots to those zones because um they've not lost too much and that's what them investors um you know um
• 52:05
  i mean pre-traders would love to come to trade when our market recovers instantly okay all right so i see i see charles has joined us um at this point in time i mean who knows uh just to put it out maybe i mentioned it in case i forget it now that we seem to get to the hang of um of this stream yard maybe this year's uh 24 hours uh space will probably be on the
• 52:37
  YouTube and some other places as well. I think it's much easier than joining on Twitter. So I see Charles here. Charles, what are your thoughts on last week's trading session and how do you view the market as a whole now? Yeah, thank you very much and sorry for not joining at the beginning of the stream, you know, time difference. Well,
• 53:07
  A lot of things happened in the market last week, which created a lot of panic. And people were coming with all manners of reasons for why the market was behaving the way it was behaving. Yes, we have to acknowledge that prior to the month of June, the market had really run and we are expecting some pullbacks.
• 53:38
  But the manner of the pullback was kind of too sudden and that created panic in the market itself. And this begs the question as to why it's very important to get all stakeholders together and sit down.
• 54:12
  and think about the policy or policies critically before jumping out and telling the world that this is what is going to happen, this is what is going to happen. The FTIC Russell had already said we are going to get into the frontier market from the unclassified long ago. So for them to have a rethink, they probably saw something.
• 54:44
  a new policy which didn't sit well with them. And we have this way of doubling down on when we make bad decisions. Instead of us to sit down and reconsider, we double down on it and the next thing we start saying is...
• 55:12
  It's our market. If they don't like the market, they should get out and stuff like that. But what we noticed in the market is no fresh monies have been coming into the market. So we had a situation where these foreign institutional investors were just watching to see how this would play out.
• 55:41
  Instead of deploying new capital, they were just rotating from stock to stock to stock. And, you know, again, we talked about liquidity being sucked out of the market by a series of fundraising going on, you know, in the market. And we talk about policies, policies, policies. And when we talk about policies, people just think...
• 56:13
  It's for the fun of it. We come every time and we try to state the importance of having a calendar. It's good to have a calendar to do all these things. And these calendars should be hard calendars, not just as the spirit directs. The day you wake up, you say, no, let's just go and raise money today. Or, you know what, let's wait till December.
• 56:42
  These things should be imbued into the calendar and that way you do it in such a way that it brings synergy. It brings positivity into the market rather than just haphazardly doing stuff and not putting into consideration the effect it could have on other things. When we talk about liquidity being sucked out of the market, the liquidity has been sucked out to just one man.
• 57:13
  to Dangote, okay? If the pension funds are not visiting Dangote today, the Minister of Investment is visiting Dangote today. If Dangote fertilizer company is not raising money today, Dangote Sugar is raising money today, or they are doing private placements for Dangote. You know, everything is just centered around one man. As much as we...
• 57:43
  We applaud all he has done. As much as we wished we had a lot more Dangote in the system, I've posited that at this stage in life, he should be impacting the life of every Nigerian. He should be the first name of every Nigerian's thinking.
• 58:12
  of how much it has impacted their life, of how much it has transformed life for them. Because the government cannot do it for us, okay? To be fair, the government does everything, you know, to enable him to do whatever he wants to do. And I think the only way he can translate that to gratitude is making sure that Nigerians, you know, benefit from whatever he's doing.
• 58:42
  And that's what I think it should be aiming at, rather than this industrialization without result, industrialization that does not trickle down to the man at the bottom of the ecosystem.
• 59:04
  All those policies are culminated in what we saw in the market that all would be seen in the market in the past couple of weeks. But again, like we would always say here, investing is a long-term thing. I think what has happened is because of the way the market has run, a lot more people became interested in the market. And again,
• 59:35
  For us policymakers, that's where they should come into the market and try and, you know, cash in on the momentum. But our policies in encouraging people to come into the market is kind of weak. I'm saying all this because at the end of the day, if we leave the narratives open,
• 1:00:08
  to everybody's interpretation, then we will never really have the kind of market that we desire. We are not going to allow people who do not know anything about the financial market to come and be telling us this is what is happening. When the main players themselves are just sitting down there, they never say anything. And when they come out to say something, the first thing that comes out of their mouth is, oh,
• 1:00:36
  We want to thank the government for all that they have done. If not for the government, this would have been this, this would have been that. That is absolute rubbish. As a matter of fact, the market should be sacrosanct. Yes, the government should create an enabling environment for the market to run. However, what you do, what you do should be a proper gauge as to how well the economy is performing.
• 1:01:05
  You have a situation where we claim the headlines, oh, Nigeria is now T plus one. We can settle, we can do settlements in a day. You know, we are the first country, the first exchange in the world that is doing settlement in equities in a day.
• 1:01:33
  Like, how does that affect the general market? I'll give you an analogy. Three years ago, or two years ago, the University of Calgary produced 42 master's graduates in law. All of them were Nigerians. The 42 law...
• 1:01:59
  graduates, master's degree in University of Calgary. They were all Nigerians. And we were waxing lyrical. Oh, Nigeria has done it again. We've produced all the master's degree holders in University of Calgary. And then I asked a simple question. How does this impact the life of the average Nigerian in Calgary? I'm not even talking of Canada in general, in Calgary. How many Nigerians have...
• 1:02:31
  lawyers. How have they impacted the life of Nigerians whose rights are being trampled upon every day? So these are the issues. So you come out, T plus one, oh, we are the first. What does that do for your economy? How does it affect the market? What were you thinking? T plus two was less than four months ago or six months ago. All of a sudden it's T plus one.
• 1:03:04
  So the question is, what are you driving at? You want to claim the headlines, stupid headlines that do not add to the bottom line, headlines that do not materially change anything. And, you know, a lot of people will be asking, oh, it's a good thing. It's a good thing for the...
• 1:03:33
  retail investor and all that yeah it's a good thing for the retail for the local retail investor but for the international investor if you have if you are sending like 1 000 2 000 to like less than to about 10 000 it's okay but we are sending millions of dollars to to do transaction the settlement process is more than a day it takes time and what that means is you have to always pray for
• 1:04:03
  your broker that they should make this quantity of these equities available to you for purchase in the next two days because they don't like their money lying fallow. They want to use their money immediately, the international investors. And so in the process, the process of settling that takes
• 1:04:33
  Like a day. And based on the fact that you now want settlement to be done one day after, what that means is you must always have that money available before you can make those purchases. And what that means is you now have to pre-inform your broker about your intended purchase. And you know what it is. Once you tell your broker that you make like...
• 1:05:03
  3 million, 4 million, 20 million units of MTN available for purchase to you, it's definitely going to go out into the market. And, you know, what will happen? The price will start tanking. The price will start to tank. And because they will leak the information. You know, our market is rife with insiders trading. And this is where you would have thought that
• 1:05:32
  After the FTSE Russell decided they were going to come into Nigeria, for any policy that is being made, because the end goal here, for me, FTSE is even a small one. I've been saying it. People do not even understand that since the Morgan Stanley composite index left Nigeria, our market has never really gone up to where it should be. It's when those people come in,
• 1:06:03
  that would really see the true violation of some of these grossly undervalued companies we have in Nigeria. Now, the FTSE was supposed to be like a test run. And, you know, me doing two implementations, you are creating doubts in their mind. And the market does not like doubts. The market does not like uncertainties.
• 1:06:32
  what you now saw is these guys now said, okay, these guys will do not understand what you are doing. Even the most advanced markets in the world, they know why they put settlement at T plus two. The average settlements in even the most advanced markets in the world is T plus two. If you ask me, T plus one kind of encourages
• 1:07:03
  Anyways, let me not go into that. That's my personal opinion. We'll find out later. I discuss this within my inner circle. So what now happened is, you know, like you are creating doubts in the minds of these guys and they are like watching, trying to see how they can manage the situation.
• 1:07:26
  So the letter they sent, they sent a clarification letter to say it's not like they are withdrawing the frontier status. They are just reconsidering certain things. And you would expect that there were a lot of movements last week, you know, talks here and there to make sure that at the end of the day, it goes smoothly. But the reaction of...
• 1:07:56
  to the market was too drastic, if you ask me, and what it did, basically, or what it's still doing. I still want Senku to tell us, based on what he's seen on the charts, whether we are still going to gap down or not. It just created opportunities for very solid companies. When we come here,
• 1:08:26
  to discuss the market. When we come here to discuss companies, there are companies we discuss way, way ahead of time. I have seen a lot of wailing and lamentations from people about their investment and all that. But again, we always want to take you back to the timelines when we started discussing some of these equities. There are some equities we don't even discuss again because for...
• 1:08:55
  The time we started discussing those equities, if you got in there, even with what is happening in the market, and even if the market still falls 100% today, you'll be in profit. So we are always trying our best to be ahead of the market. Because what we see, the opportunities we see, sometimes it will take certain things to happen before...
• 1:09:25
  It becomes obvious to everybody. So we always come. We see these opportunities. We start talking about them. And, you know, we expect that for designing investors, what you need to do is go, look at those things, those equities we are talking about, and start doing your own research. You know? We just detest a situation where we see a lot of ingratitude, you know?
• 1:09:55
  Nobody pays us to do any of this stuff that we do here. You understand? We could make what we do paid, but it defeats the purpose, right? It defeats the purpose of trying to empower Nigerians financially. And we are in that kind of a system right now. We are fullery.
• 1:10:26
  where people who come and make things that do not contribute to the life of the average Nigerian are those who are, you know, being heard and popularized, you know. But, you know, our motivation is this is our own contribution because it's not just enough to be complaining the country is bad, the country is this, the country is that.
• 1:10:53
  I know a lot of people keep asking, what's the motivation for these people? Our motivation is a better life for Nigerians. And I know a lot of people keep saying, oh, these guys, they must be making money. Like, they make money from YouTube. We don't make any money from YouTube. We don't make any money from Twitter. Go and check our status on Twitter. We are not even there yet. We are monetized or anything. But, like, again, that's not the purpose. Okay? We come here.
• 1:11:23
  Every week, grinding. Even before we come here, every day it's a meeting. Every day we are seeing developments. And we try to point people to those directions. I know people are talking, oh, insurance. Insurance have not performed well and all that. But I always ask questions. I always need to ask investors questions. Go and check people who are in these sectors.
• 1:11:53
  Go and check the major shareholders of these insurance companies. You always find these extremely rich people all trying to get into insurance companies. And you ask yourself, why are they getting into insurance companies? From time to time, there are new appointments. You see people being appointed into the boards of insurance companies. And if you cannot connect the duct that...
• 1:12:22
  This is something that you're not seeing. I'm sorry, I'm not going to be able to help you because in your mind, you want to buy something today for one era and make 100 million era tomorrow. It doesn't work like that. It does not. So it's when you see this critical appointment, you see changes taking place in a company, you're wondering, why is this happening? Why is this person coming? How can somebody who is executive...
• 1:12:53
  director of a bank coming to take a position in an insurance company. Why is Aradel interested in, why is Aradel the major shareholder in Consolidated Hallmark? Why is some of the biggest, best brains in banking taking position in insurance companies? Why is
• 1:13:24
  Link Assure, one of the biggest shareholders in Stambik Pension, the biggest pension company in the industry. And go and check. If you just take time, because like some people, they are too fixated in PE, in EPS and rubbish. And when you ask them what their investing philosophy is, they just go and chat GPTU what their investing philosophy is.
• 1:13:54
  without actually saying anything or you go you have certain people you follow you just go and copy their verbatim and all that these same people we talk to them we interact with them we have them on speed dial you know to clarify certain things and all that okay everybody they've got their source of information and it's not there are some sources that are kind of
• 1:14:23
  supposed to be non-disclosure because they're like top secret and all that. Because if you now start disclosing that, it will constitute the insider's trading and stuff like that. You know? So we want a situation where people can make up their own mind on what they want to do with their money. And then sometimes, even when we talk, we want to be challenged.
• 1:14:51
  I'm just looking at that thing you said now. I was just checking the report and I saw this and I saw that. Don't you think this is this? That's how we want our community members to be thinking. You have to be ahead of the game. When it becomes obvious that this is the game, then the money has already been made. And that is why, like I said, we don't talk about UAC again. We don't talk about NACO. Because the time we talked about UAC when it was...
• 1:15:20
  at $15,000. If you bought at $15,000, that's like 10 times multiple right now. Why would you be complaining that your portfolio has gone down? When we started talking about NACO, why would you be complaining that your portfolio has gone down? When we started talking about Arade, why would you be complaining? Even the insurance company, we were talking about them prior to when the bill was even signed. But, you know, like...
• 1:15:52
  People make it look like we are in a competition to see who is right or who is wrong. We don't have that time. I don't even give attention to things like that, you know, because like the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice in a day, you know. So eventually it will come to that point where...
• 1:16:23
  you'll be right or we'll be right. But there's a methodology to the way we come out and talk to people about their investment. So basically the reaction last week was too drastic. And what has happened is that it's created opportunities. People, when NACU almost ran over 250,
• 1:16:52
  People were complaining, oh, let it come to 120, let it come to that. It has come to that now. What are you going to do? You'll be waiting for it to fall below 100. And when you do that, what it tells me is you don't know how to do valuation, okay? Once you have a convenient safety of margin or margin of safety in your investment, go for it.
• 1:17:19
  You can even go for it and it will still go down further. But when the market decides to do its thing, you are going to be eating well. So I see a lot of equities that are mispriced right now and more so because of the panic that has happened. And that is why we should be careful because I hear a lot of people, oh, it's the retail market that is doing it. Yes, the retail market has really improved.
• 1:17:48
  You have more retail participation than institutional participation. But by the time you put into consideration the value, that one institutional investor could be putting like 20 times what all the retail investors are putting in the market. And it's the money that moves the market. Why you haven't seen any movement?
• 1:18:16
  of late in the market is because no new institutional money has been coming into the market. The market, the money is just parked sideways, waiting for direction, waiting to see how this new policy pans out or plays out. So you created a lot of new opportunities in the market. Zenit is very cheap right now. GTB is very cheap. NACO is very cheap. Aradel is very cheap, you know. But again, what?
• 1:18:50
  What can we offer to that new investor? I know some people are so used to, oh, go and buy quality stock, go and buy stock that have good earnings, that have track record and all that. All those companies that have, that got there, started from somewhere. If a company has been in existence for 20 years and that company is still existing and nothing has happened to it,
• 1:19:20
  and you are seeing progress, you are seeing things happening, then you have to pay attention. Because I always ask, okay, if I ask you to go and buy Zeppelin, to go and buy Arada, to go and buy GTB, how many MTN, how many can you realistically buy? You think if you have 1,000 MTN stock, it will change your life? And so we see opportunity makers in the market.
• 1:19:52
  We are looking at insurance companies. Yes, insurance companies for a very long time have not lived up to expectations. Not because they are not making money, because you should be asking yourself, okay, if these insurance companies are not making money, how come they are still in existence? Even some companies in the NGX, the only time you see them make a move is when the company is kind of threatened. Maybe somebody is threatening to...
• 1:20:24
  start dragging ownership of the company with the present owner. It starts moving. And that's why we say, when you see that the stock becomes perpetually undervalued, you know there's a problem. There's an underlying problem with that stock. I don't want to mention names, but we all know that. There are certain stocks now that will be owned by certain owners that will operate in that ecosystem, in that NGS, and that won't touch it.
• 1:20:52
  No matter how good they are, I will not touch it. Because they perpetually keep it undervalued. They make it look like they are not making money. We knew when Transcop, Transcop for over a decade, for over 10 years, was just trading at the nominal value of 50 copper. With all the assets that they had. And we saw it.
• 1:21:21
  A lot of us packed Transcoop at 50 cobble because if you go and look at the annual report and see all the assets that they have, they had Transcoop Hotel, they had Transcoop Power, they had gas plants, power stations and all that stuff. And yet it was trading at 50 cobble. And nothing was happening. Nothing. It was just deal, follow. And then all of a sudden, somebody decided to say, OK, I want to take a stake in this company. And that's when it moved.
• 1:21:54
  Even with the other entities, for a very long time, like you are looking at Zenit and you are looking at GTB, you are wondering why Zenit and GTB should be ahead of certain banks in the system. But these guys have safeguarded themselves. They've bought more shares. They've fortified their position. They have people everywhere to make sure that they are protected and all that stuff. So when a stock,
• 1:22:32
  It's perpetually undervalued. That's the problem. It's not like they're not making money. Things are cleaning out. Because at the end of every, if you go and check their financial report, all you will see is extraordinary items. Extraordinary items. So we created, an opportunity was created. And it's not to say if you buy those opportunities now in...
• 1:23:16
  a week or two or three or in a month or in six months, those things will start to crystallize. It will still take some time. Thank God the quarter has ended. Most of the companies have brought out notice of their close period and publication of their second quarter result. Some of them will be paying dividends.
• 1:23:48
  Like I summarized in our last space, I don't think we've seen the end of this yet. I just think this is what's going to be happening in the market. It's going to be sideways for a very long time. Like Senko said, MTMI come out with a blowout result. Their result is going to be superb. Ceplat is going to come out with a blowout result. Aradel is going to come out with a blowout result.
• 1:24:20
  UAC is going to come out with a blowout result. But the question is, for those who are not paying dividend, people will have to wait till year end to see the impact of that. So if the result comes out and people start rushing to buy these equities, FTSE comes in, you know, helps to stabilize or create a support for where people are buying these equities. Then...
• 1:25:05
  After some time, corrections will start coming in again because there's only so much you can choose. You want to be part of it. You don't want to be left out. But you forget you have, after half a year, you have September, October, November, December, January, February, March, before they start releasing their year-end result. And between those periods, you've got the election in between. So, if anybody is thinking we are going to see the mad run that we saw,
• 1:25:41
  In the last two years, you have to temper your expectation. It's not going to be like that. And I'm being very realistic, programming your mind now. But that's not to say you should leave the market. Because if you leave the market, you will never know when those opportunities are created. You really have to be smart. Your approach to the market right now has to be very, very smart. We are putting all the roadblocks that can possibly be in place. Our biggest fear right now.
• 1:26:15
  is the election. Because from all indication, it doesn't look like it's going to be a smooth election. And before people jump to the conclusion that I'm being political here, if you don't put that into your consideration, you can do whatever you want to do. But don't cry when you lose your money. So that's definitely going to have a good play out in people's mind. And the way you...
• 1:26:59
  navigate that will determine how well you will do in the market. So from this period we are in now, you need to be very, very ready. You need to ask yourself, what am I looking at? What do I want to buy? What is going to change? Policies now, everything in terms of policies, government policies that will enable investment will be put on the back burner.
• 1:27:33
  Everything the government is interested in right now is election. So this is no time to be saying, all the things the government have already promised, all the things the government have already made in terms of policy to encourage investment in the market, in various sectors of our lives, it's already there. Go and look at those blueprints and then just be watching and pray.
• 1:28:06
  for Nigeria to have a peaceful election. That's the most important thing right now. If we have a peaceful election, then you will see that market. And I'm not the only one thinking like this. The institutional investors are thinking too. I know people saw some upliftment in the ASI on Friday, but remove what RTL did, and probably MTL, people are still in panic mode.
• 1:28:45
  I know next week people might FOMO, might FOMO into the market thinking, oh, it's about to get lit. And again, don't fall. Don't fall for the bait, for the bait of these banks who is telling you now that this is a close period and they are considering dividend. Because these are the same banks.
• 1:29:22
  During their call, we were asking them, what is your position with forbearance? Are you going to be able to pay dividends? They could not give a definitive answer. Now that it's half a year, they're coming out with statements that they're meeting, there'll be a close meeting to discuss the half-year result and dividend. If you fall for that, if you fall for that, then you are probably the fool.
• 1:29:54
  Because that's not the first time they are doing it. That's not the second time. We are asking them direct questions. What is your position with forbearance? Will you be able to pay dividends after? And they will turn to politicians. They start dodging the question. So if you fall for that gimmick, you only have yourself to blame. This would have been insurance time. This would have been time for insurance to shine. This would have been time for us to start hearing about measures. This would have been time for...
• 1:30:34
  us to start hearing about companies, some solid insurance companies that are not listed on the NGS who are now coming into the NGS. And it will still happen. So the insurance company for a very long time have had very lax regulation. So with the new capital requirement, it's going to be different. It's going to be bigger. And I've always said we should take our mind back to banks.
• 1:31:07
  Proud to their consolidation that was initiated by then-CBN governor Charles Sulu, the host and the governor of Anambra State. Go and check the state of our banks that time and push consolidation. There are going to be some big winners that will join some already established insurance companies. So people can laugh at insurance companies for all they want, but insurance is the next big...
• 1:31:42
  money spinner. He's the next big money minter for Nigerians if you pay close attention. You're not in business for over 50 years for the fun of it. You're making money. You're not making full disclosures. You're making it look like you're not making money. You give forecast. Everything is going well. Then that fourth quarter, you now say claims.
• 1:32:13
  It's what has happened. That's why you are not able to pay dividends. No, it's going to change now. NICOM needs to sit up as a regulatory body. They need to sit up because we have Regency Insurance right now doing a right issue. Meanwhile, we have not seen their year-end result for 2025. So the only reason people are buying right now is for those who bought.
• 1:32:45
  At the beginning of the week, from the floor, you would have gotten a discount on the right price. But I know next week, they'll probably push that price above the right price just to make it attractive to people to buy. Because, again, Regency Insurance was like one of those companies who made it look like they already had the money. And how much are they raising anyways? Just three.
• 1:33:23
  less than $4 billion a year. That's what they are raising for the right issue, which one person can just bring up and they have all that money. Which brings us to the point to why our companies need to do better. You can see how everybody is running to Dangote to tell Dangote, take my money. It should be the same case with a lot of these other companies.
• 1:34:04
  If you tell your story properly, don't let us see you only when you want to raise money. Let us see your presence. Let us see what you are doing. Tell us the activities of your company. Have a monthly update of what is happening in your company. Let your company be in everybody's eyes. And then by the time you come, everybody is happy to want to invest.
• 1:34:39
  in your company you can imagine how a company in in ghana kasaprenko did their ipo and we are aware of it one of their major product is a big seller in nigeria but they don't do anything pro zero publicity zero corporate social responsibility zero we don't feel your impact in anything that you do so
• 1:35:17
  When you want to raise three billion, it's a problem. Three billion that one human being can give to you. But I know no matter what you want to say about Regency, they already have the money. They already have the money. They do expect the market to turn so badly that their stock price will fall below the right issue price. So pay attention. We keep saying it. Those who want to laugh can laugh all they want.
• 1:36:00
  But it's not going to stop us. We know what we signed up to do when we started this whole journey. We will continue to encourage people. You need financial independence. We live in a country where there's no social insurance for the citizens, where there's no welfare. That's why you see people roaming the streets. They don't know where their next meal is going to come from.
• 1:36:37
  People who roam the street in advanced country do it on their own violation because they give them money to take care of everything. But, you know, when they give you money and all you are thinking about is how to go and get your drugs and your brain becomes messed up, the street becomes your home. But it's not like they are not catered for. These people, free medical care, they have it. They don't pay anything for medication. If they are sick, they see the doctor.
• 1:37:07
  They get medications for free and all that stuff. They give them money for accommodation and all that. Give them money for food. If you manage it well, you should be okay. The same stuff they provide for refugees. That's why they all come here claiming on kind of status so as to be able to get funding. We have some group of countries that are notorious for claiming refugee status. They will come here. They have like...
• 1:37:37
  They have like four wives. They have like 11 children. All of them are given a minimum of $1,500 per month. So if they give you $1,500 times the total number of your family, you know how much that is. If you're a smart person, you can actually do something meaningful with that money. And before you know, you are doing well for yourself. And that's why a lot of people refuse to work in this part of the world.
• 1:38:08
  But in Nigeria, if you don't have a job, you don't have housing, you don't have food, you will die. You will die and be rotting in the street. And people will be passing your cops. And these are the things that motivate us. Since we don't have a responsible government that provides welfare for a citizen, you need to help yourself. And when you see people grinding, going out of their...
• 1:38:43
  a comfort zone, trying to provide this, and you turn it into banter. If you want to banter, go and watch Efekata and Pella. This is serious business here. As much as possible, what you need is positive energy within the community. Make sure that if you have a contrary opinion to what anybody is saying,
• 1:39:15
  Put it respectfully. If you don't like the community, by all means, you can go start your community. But when people come, put in the work, grind, trying to find out information, come out, give it to you for free. And all you do is, you are trying to prove. It's very, very discouraging. But you cannot discourage us.
• 1:39:51
  Because those who appreciate what they get, show those appreciation. It's not everything in my DM that you will see. I need you guys to come out and tell us, okay, based on this, this is what I saw, this is what I saw. Let's do this. That's what I want from the community. Let's come together, work together. I'm not saying if you think what is being said is not right, you cannot correct it.
• 1:40:27
  But don't make the group degenerate into something that it is not. It's not an academic class. We don't care whether you have a first class or you are a dropout. Point us to directions where people can make financially, can gain financial independence for themselves. That's what we're after. Because at the end of the day, how much money? How much money can you really spend?
• 1:41:00
  When you die, which death is inevitable? Anybody can die. We can be talking, the person is dead, that's it. How much money are you going to take away? What would you be remembered for? That you did an IPO that was 35 cents that a poor man could not afford? Is that what you want to be remembered for? All your trucks are always killing people on the road. Even when you are doing so much, you have to try and change that narrative. Even your only two way.
• 1:41:35
  Even the fact that nobody knows you, you need to start contributing your quota. You need to start contributing to good governance in this country. Because if you fold your hand and you leave it to the hands of the politician, anything you see, you take it like that. These guys, they don't care. You don't mean anything to them. You don't. They're all about lining their pockets.
• 1:42:11
  And when I see people line up defending these people, I just wonder, do you even have a brain? These people don't even know whether you exist. Their kids are not here. When it's election time, prior to the election, they travel. They leave the country, including our president. The most important day of his life, when the court was going to decide his election stuff, he left the country. Anytime there's a major crisis, he's out of the country.
• 1:42:54
  There has not been a major crisis where the president has addressed the nation. None. Kids have been missing for God knows how long. Prior to this administration, he was very vociferous. He would be the one who would come out and say, this guy is incompetent, he should resign and all that. What's this have happened in your administration? I'm not even saying he should solve the problem, but come out and say something.
• 1:43:29
  Instead, what we hear is, oh, when I was opposition, they made life difficult for me. I'm going to make life very difficult for them. That's not a good message for peaceful election. Look at the scandal that is going on now of how somebody, of how an agency was created. And all we see is just failure of government in every aspect. No matter how, in this government, we started hearing, oh, challenge your governors. My friend, you are the commander-in-chief.
• 1:44:06
  At the end of the day, the box stops at your table. But it's not a challenge or governance. You're always looking, there's always an excuse. Somebody must always make an excuse as to why something is not happening. And that is why we do what we do. We want people to be less reliant on government. We want people to be self-reliant, look at the situation, try and make money from what is going on. Because...
• 1:44:45
  Like, you don't have anything. The taxes you pay, you just wonder why you pay the taxes. Because it's not there for you. The tax is not there for you. At the times of need, when you are homeless and all that, nobody will remember you. So that's why we come here. Look at the market and try and see what we can do for ourselves. So, for the market, a lot of opportunities have been created.
• 1:45:22
  A lot more are being created. You need to be patient. The stock market is patience. I always ask people, let's check notes in 5 to 10 years. Let God keep us alive till that time. And let's check notes in 5 to 10 years and let us see if you have made the right decision with some of the things we'll be telling you. You can laugh at recommendations we make for all you want, but
• 1:46:03
  Eventually, when you see what we saw, like four years back, you'll probably go back and be playing all the recordings of all the spaces and engagement we'll be doing, and you will see where we were coming from. And I'm not saying we cannot be wrong. Nobody's always right. We don't boast. We don't say we did this. No, that's not our... If you're an astute...
• 1:46:36
  and you've read your books, you will find out that there are a lot of fund managers. They kill it in one year and they become larger than life. And then the market will humble them. Who will say, go and buy Tantalizer. And Tantalizer becomes a joke to you. Keep laughing. And I don't actually blame anybody. Like I said, a lot of times it's these companies who do not actually come out to tell us the story.
• 1:47:15
  They are coming out with a game show. They have an entertainment company that 20% is almost like the market cap of the company itself. And they have fisheries. So their major distinct was a quick service restaurant. A quick service restaurant has transitioned and restructured into a fishery company.
• 1:47:50
  into an entertainment company and people do not see anything. They are coming out with a game show that will give Baba Ejebu a run for its money. But people are looking at balance sheet. People are looking at the stock price today. They are not looking at the stock price in five years. They are not looking at the stock price in 10 years. They are not looking at the man behind the restructuring of this company.
• 1:48:35
  break this down for you it becomes a joke to certain people so we will keep doing what we are doing as per what is coming this week again the market should show the sign of recovery on Friday but like I said I want to see what if we are gapping down on the ASI but obviously
• 1:49:15
  The way the market is now, we have baskets of opportunities. It's up to you. It's up to you to take advantage of them. Every day, we try and give you deals, big deals that are happening in the market. Pay attention. Always pay attention to those things. We don't post them for the fun of it.
• 1:49:52
  We can go to the market and give you a market report. This, this, this one, gain this, this, gain this. But all I'm interested in is where's the money flowing into. And that's why as a team, every day we give you days of the day. If you think we just post days of the day because for the fun of it, then you've got to think again. It tells you where money is going into. Sometimes those days are just one deal. So when you see somebody,
• 1:50:27
  One deal of a company that nobody's talking about. Somebody's pumping over 100 million, 200 million into it, 1 billion into it. They ask yourself, what's happening? So let's watch the market. For those, if you did not get out of the market like in May, this is no time to start panicking to get out of the market. And if you noticed...
• 1:51:04
  It looks like most of the most fundamental stocks were the most hit during this period. And that is part of the liquidity crunch that you fall into. So let's say by chance you were lucky to get into the Dangote Refinery and you needed to pay money. You needed urgent money to pay for your allocations of shares.
• 1:51:41
  The only way you could get those money is by selling your liquid fundamental stocks, like your Zenit, your GTB, your Aradale, not Ceplat, because Ceplat is not liquid. If it was liquid, people would have seen a massive drawdown in the price to your NACO. These are all liquid shares that people could sell easily and then...
• 1:52:17
  get the money to pay for their whatever. And that's why you saw that most of the fundamental stocks were the most beaten. If you are looking for liquidity on this, you think it's bigger paint you are going to get your liquidity from, you have to think again. If you think it's better glass you are going to get your liquidity from, you have to think again. So what did you notice? For those stocks, like nothing happened to them. Even like, even the seplat, it's like nothing happened to it because it's not liquid.
• 1:52:54
  If it was liquid, a lot of people would sell down. And then you start panicking, not knowing people are just defaulting to where they can get their urgent toolkit and pay for their allocation. So we preach patience. We preach rationality. And we preach, if you have done your homework, like I said, maybe...
• 1:53:35
  uh senko should do a class on calculating the margin of safety once you have good margin of safety after doing all your metrics and you have good margin of safety when entering a stock buy it don't worry about it and forget checking like all this one i've done looked at my portfolio i don't know the last time i looked at my portfolio you know sometimes investing becomes like fun yeah it's not really the money that is driving you now your ability your your ability to stay
• 1:54:13
  unemotionally invested in the market, that's the biggest strength. Your ability to know, you know what? Don't do anything. Your ability to know, just stay with cash. It's very difficult. I'm telling you, a lot of people, if they had money right now, they would have deployed that money long ago. And then it keeps dipping and dipping and dipping and dipping. I wish I waited a little bit longer. But you can't time the market.
• 1:54:42
  And that's why I said, once you're able to calculate your margin of safety when going into an equity and you do that, don't worry about it. Let it fall, don't problem. At the appropriate time, when the market forces align, you would reap. We saw with Ikeja Hotel a couple of things that are going on there now. Prior to that, we noticed a lot of volumes in Ikeja Hotel. If you're in the community, you will know.
• 1:55:24
  There are people who will come. Jokingly, they will drop a snippet. Ah, what is happening in Ikeja Hotel? This volume, we get our CB to do. And then you see some appointment. You see some appointments. And then we now start asking, okay, what is the rationale? What is behind these appointments? We discuss these things. We know. We find out. We ask questions. We try and get in touch. What's going on? And then we tell you, hold your Ikeja Hotel if you have it. Then after like maybe six months,
• 1:56:04
  several months. Oh, Otedala wants to take a stake in Ikeja Hotel. And then people will say, oh, this, that, that. You will complain whining because you don't pay attention. You don't pay attention. You want to laugh. You think we are in the business of making people laugh. You think this is comedy. And I'm sure if some of us were in comedy, we would do better. We would be household names compared to those. But the question is, those comedians, how much?
• 1:56:38
  Do they affect your life? You go and laugh for one minute, you go back to your bed and your sorrows continue. We are trying to give you something, teach you something that you can be quick to your children. I'm sure everyone who is a member of our community, they are teaching their kids now, start investing. Those ones who are buying U.S. stocks, if you have kids, rather than buy U.S. stocks, go and buy share certificates for your children for like these good stocks like NVIDIA.
• 1:57:16
  It's not for you. NVIDIA has gone past you. It's not time to buy NVIDIA for yourself. Buy like 10 shares of NVIDIA for your kids, certificate. When they get to 18 years, give it to them. See how much that thing has done for them. I know you're trying to chase NVIDIA now. So we appeal for calm. We appeal for patience. We appeal for paying attention. Pay close attention. There are a lot of things happening.
• 1:58:04
  Follow the money. Follow the people. When you see an appointment, go and look at that appointment. Who is this person? Why? What is informing his decision to get into this company? If you know the amount of all the big boys in the market, all the banking big boys, oil and gas big boys that are into insurance companies, you will not play with insurance companies.
• 1:58:43
  And if you are lucky, even this NEM insurance, for a very long time, for over a decade, NEM was trading at 50 couple. 1 million shares of NEM would have been 500K. 10 million shares of NEM would have been 5 million. Just imagine you have 10 million shares of NEM right now at that price. So these opportunities are always there. But if you want, that time, all NEM will be regarded as useless companies.
• 1:59:25
  of these insurance companies, of these insurance companies, of these insurance companies. That's how one of those, of these useless insurance companies you are seeing right now become the bedrock of insurance in this country. And then you ask yourself, where was I? How come I didn't look at it? Because you wanted to laugh at people. Because you wanted a company that was already solid for you to invest in before you invested. And like I always tell them, like I always say,
• 1:59:58
  For these solid companies, you think we don't have them? You want me to come and start telling you to go and buy Seplat at 11,000 Naira for something I think I bought for less than, for less, anyway, let's not go there. You think we don't know? We don't know. I can tell you go and buy the index. Buy GTB, buy MTN, buy Zenit, buy Assets Bank, buy UBA, buy Echo Bank, buy.
• 2:00:35
  NACO, buy UHC, buy Presco, buy Okomo. You think we don't know those are good stuff? Is that smart thinking? Is that how we want to empower people to become self-made? How many Presco can you buy? How many Okomo can you buy? You think one thousand Okomo will change your life? But one million, one million Regal Insurance, one million Link Assure, one million...
• 2:01:14
  Sovereign. One million, name it, pharmaceuticals. These are things you could just buy now. Look at, look, do you know, up till, do you know, during COVID, or after COVID, this tip, tip everybody is pursuing, I was selling for 33 kubo. 33 kubo. That time, ah, these new companies.
• 2:01:53
  Don't know them. Wait to know them. I think now everybody is scrambling to buy TIP. By the time TIP will get to 500, people will still buy TIP at 500. People will buy TIP at 500. Did you not see the flooding in Lagos? It's just a matter of time. The reason why I keep, I come here most times and I ask people, okay, I'm looking at Lagos now. What can, where will Lagos be in 10 years?
• 2:02:30
  Are we continually going to be seeing this flooding in another 10 to 15 years? No. Somebody is going to come up and provide solutions. The person, the company that will be providing those solutions are the next wave of companies you should be investing in. The MTN will still be there and all that. They will continue to go up and all that. But you should be looking for companies who can provide solutions.
• 2:03:09
  that people use in everyday life. And when we see those opportunities, we try and bring it to the fore. All of a sudden, everybody's talking about mineral resources now. How the government wants to do this? How the government wants to do that? How are you positioned for that? Ask a simple question. Everybody has been talking about AI. AI, AI, AI, AI, AI. All kinds of AI bubbles be formed left, right, center. You ask yourself, has...
• 2:03:39
  Nigeria benefited from the AI boom? No. And I know when I talk AI, people's mind will go to, okay, which company can possibly benefit? Maybe Champs, maybe MTN, maybe CWG, maybe Intransat and all that stuff. But what do you need for AI to work? Chips. Who produces most chips in the world? China and Africa. Has Africa benefited from chip production? The answer is no. Are we going to benefit from...
• 2:04:10
  Those trade productions were already benefiting, except that it's been reported as informal. It's not getting to you. Have you ever asked the question, why Nigeria never goes broke? Because not all the sources of revenue we make in this country is disclosed. Now, the picture is becoming clearer. All of a sudden, oh, there's a lithium company in Nassarawa. Discover lithium and some rare earth metals in Kaduna.
• 2:04:44
  But every day, we'll be subtly pointing you to directions. Something is happening in this space. I'm telling you, some of these things we are saying now, let God keep us alive. Ten years, you go and listen to these spaces again. You say, these guys, they saw tomorrow. And we didn't even see tomorrow. It's just common. This information, they are everywhere. They are everywhere, which I've just decided. If you know, like, we will finish from here now.
• 2:05:26
  We talk every day. We are in different parts of the world, but we talk every day. Immediately we see something, we start thinking, okay, how do we invest in this? How do we invest in this? How do we navigate this? We looked at Aradale and we're just thinking, how do we invest in Aradale? For some of us who bought Aradale at 400, 500, buying it at over 1,000, they pepper my body. So how do we invest in it?
• 2:05:58
  I was thinking about strategies. And that's how I want us to be thinking. It's like, I want people to come. Ah, green ticker. There's this thing I'm looking at. If we do this, do this, do this. I want people to... We are not lords. We are not God. We don't know anything. Bring your distinct. What are you looking at? And then we all look at it together. That's how you build a big community. A viral community that...
• 2:06:34
  You know, we impact people's life and leave them something. Even subscribing to our channel is a problem. I went to a platform the other day and I was just reading about Green Ticker and they were saying, no, those people, I don't want to patronize them. Those guys are making money. If not, why will he be getting up every day and be doing three videos in a day? He's making money.
• 2:07:17
  And then they now go and bring earnings influencers make, like VeryDarkMan, like Pella, and they start comparing it with what we do. And I just laugh. See, because of that, I know nobody's going to use my money. Like, have you ever bothered to listen to the analysis on those videos? Like, who does that for you for free, religiously?
• 2:07:52
  So, guys, we can do a lot better, man. We can do a lot better, you know. And if all we ask for is just a token of encouragement, that's all we're asking for. Subscribe to our channels. Like, share these things. Send it to your friends, to your loved ones, because these are the things that will change their lives. We've all advocated here why we should start teaching financial education to replace...
• 2:08:26
  or to be part of the general studies curriculum. You know, in most universities, there's a course called General GS, where they'll be teaching you rubbish that may go back to discover the River Ninja. So let's be patient with the market. Let the market do its thing. Sometimes you watch. Everybody's watching now. But for those opportunities that have been created, please, don't procrastinate.
• 2:09:03
  Again, Senko, I've probably given you a topic maybe for tomorrow. Go and teach people how to calculate margin of safety when they want to buy a stock. And once you buy within 50% margin of safety, you're okay. You're okay. And thank you, guys. And I hope you got one or two things from what I've said here.
• 2:09:37
  All right. Thank you, Charles. Am I loud and clear? There's some working work around me. Am I audible? Yes, we can hear you. Okay, great. So I'm going to try and answer some of the questions. I'm in a good mood today. All I will tell people is, tell us, I will give you the main points. But I'd like to say that...
• 2:10:04
  a lot of the things that people ask i mean i'm seeing some of the questions yes i was asking you know it's transfer page on that value i mean um i don't think i can say this humbly i don't think there's anybody that does the free market coverage i do in this country nobody the depth of free market coverage i do in this country nobody does it i don't think they're more than four or five of course i don't be four or five of course i don't think there's nobody that is doing free markets at six a.m or seven a.m
• 2:10:35
  So please, take out the time, go and watch the critical videos. We are not dramatic people. If I wanted to be dramatic, I would say, oh, 10 stocks that we blew in 2026. We don't do all that. This is serious business. We don't do that. If I was looking for views or anything, I can tell you 10 stocks that we blew in 2026.
• 2:11:02
  at this stock before by 500 percent no we'll call out numbers we put numbers all together so we've more than covered the insurance space in the last 10 maybe 15 pre-market videos so please go and watch them i think the longest pre-market video part in the last two weeks is 23 minutes
• 2:11:30
  i look at most of the gossip and entertainment content you see on nigerian internet they are longer than that people are watching them 10 000 20 000 50 000 views so um if we can do 20 30 minutes to share content i think it's worth watching so the question on the insurance conference and uh don't be fine going please anything i say i like to create the emergence of the house nobody should come and ask me so
• 2:12:00
  i will explain on my explanation here outside of here nobody should ask anything why today is saturday i spent monday to saturday in fact after this uh after this uh event i'm going back to record to cover the publishing houses this was supposed to be an income to life uh we just said you know what let's test this thing just i'm familiar with it so um
• 2:12:31
  if you are looking at insurance companies that are valued i would divide the companies into two you have and for more context i think maybe you can check any of the pre-market videos done this week you have what i would call um tier one insurance companies companies with asset size of about 100 billion or more um i think you have about six or eight of them then you have tier two insurance companies and then tier three insurance companies so of the
• 2:13:03
  j1 insurance companies in my view of custodian you have name you have commerce you have you have one pick i think we have a few hours these are companies with assets of a hundred billion or more custodian i know some people might say well custodian is not a it's a holding company yes very true custodian is a holding company but the bulk of custodians earnings are from the insurance business
• 2:13:34
  So till when the bulk of earnings come from other sectors, Custodian will continue to be analyzed in tandem with other insurance companies. Custodian has about 1.1 trillion asset base. Look at tier 2 banks. I don't know which tier 2 bank to compare it to. Maybe Jays. I don't have an asset base on Jays.
• 2:14:03
  so consideration is still a long way to go to be compared with other whole codes in the country but in any case back to the gist of the matter if if we say what's valid or undervalued um the you look at the likes of cornhole you look at the likes of wapik wapik is grossly undervalued
• 2:14:29
  and i'm sure some people are going to drag us so these guys have come again but it's very simple and i challenge anybody that disagrees with me go and take the financial statement of wapik go and take the financial statement of coronation group calculate the value of the coronation group calculate the value of wapik put all those numbers together and then let's have a conversation um after that so
• 2:15:01
  Now, that an insurance company is undervalued does not mean that it's going to attain its true value overnight. So, we are not magicians. Something can be undervalued and still there for the next five years. I mean, when you look at the banking space, right now, Zenit Bank is undervalued. The definition of undervalued is very simple. It's trading below good value. So, anything below good value is undervalued. Zenit Bank is undervalued.
• 2:15:31
  so the same thing for the insurance space i think um consolidating homework the issue what peak is um who is the essential i always call now what peak in my own opinion i got a lot of disputes because you have to handle what peak you have to handle asset span um there were some family squabbles i don't know how the matter has gone the matter has gone quiet
• 2:16:02
  So in my view, I think Ike has a lot on his plate to handle. It's not easy. He essentially was pulled back from a semi-retirement out of the blues following the death of Herbert. So Ike has a lot on his plate. But in my view, I think that in the next three to five years, I see a situation whereby WAPIG, Coronation Group and ASES, I think all of them should be bundled together.
• 2:16:33
  uh whether i could want to do that i don't know whether the family issues big way family versus like has been settled i don't know um but whichever way it is i think that's the stock to watch updc it's also under stock to watch it's quite simple calculate the value of updc um you look at where updc is trading us upcdc is grossly undervalued and more importantly
• 2:17:05
  We only have one scenario right now. At some point in time, Custodian will have to decide how he's going to effectively take over UPDC. Is it that Custodian will give cash to UPDC shareholders and they buy up everybody? Or is it that Custodian will give shares? I think that Custodian will do both at some point. When they will do it, I don't know. So nobody should say this guy said this.
• 2:17:35
  i believe i'm a fundamentalist primarily so fundamentals tell me something's on the values i'm not interested in when uh when it will happen it's a matter of fact is it valid on the value so the value take position when it happens to execute there's literally almost no stock on the nigerian stock exchange even we look at likes of mtn i've said this several times that you can get the context of the video various i think ng is one of the few stocks that we probably don't for five videos
• 2:18:05
  mtn is a 1000 stock so mtn at this price point mtn is undervalued but the question is i mean how many people can afford 1 million mtn andrea shares less than one percent because that's 750 plus million there or are you going to get a gun money rather than buy spending 750 million that you don't have on mtn you might say okay what can i buy with two million three million five million ten million so um consulate hallmark i think is undervalued that's his 10 hour stock
• 2:18:36
  and it's quite simple um if you look at the early special strip away the fx games even if you assume that consolidated hallmark you can refer to some of the pre-market videos this week i don't know i can't remember if i covered it yesterday's pre-market video maybe maybe not i think so i look at my special page even if you assume that because of the day hallmark you have an any special owner which is a
• 2:19:04
  bare bones assumption that would mean that the stock is trading about 5.8 times and to take all the tier one insurance companies there's no tier one insurance company that's trading at less than there and that if the only tier one insurance companies that are trading at less than WTP ratio at the moment um will probably be WAPIC custodian and consolidated hallmark you have them trading at 10.4 times so
• 2:19:31
  That even tells you that we are doing by peer issue. Custodian is cheap. In any case, in the next five, six years, I think Custodian is a 100 to 150 Naira stock. Again, it's quite simple. Go and look at the equity. Custodian has 251 billion in equity. If you assume that the equity grows by 20% every year, meaning five years, that's 500 billion in equity. Divide the 500 billion by the US, you are looking at, I don't know, maybe 17 Naira.
• 2:20:01
  as book value five years time take your 79 and do 1.2 times book value they are looking at over 100 actually so these are the stocks and there's so many stocks that are here under values um question was about insurance space i think i've answered all the questions so the question about um um yes this place is this slide where is the venue stream is recorded
• 2:20:29
  There was a question on can Q2 numbers move the market. I don't know if Q2 numbers can move the market. The honest truth is nobody can categorically say this market will move or not. Because remember that the Dangote public offer is scheduled for some time in Q3. That is Q3 is when we are in Q3 actually, July, August, September, right? So I suspect that between August to October, one of those months is when we are going to have that public offer.
• 2:20:59
  public of outcomes even if you open the public offer next week it's going to drain money from the market um so really nobody i i think as charles said forget about whether the price will go up or whether the price will go down it's a simple question whatever you are buying are you buying anything below value if you are buying an undervalued assets consistently generating profit then it doesn't matter
• 2:21:28
  you know what i mean this we are six months into the year so market is up about 47 or 48 percent so even if the market declines by 20 percent it's not much you can do and if the market stays where it is for the next the rest of the year that's what you can do so um i think those are just some of the songs so many of them even when you look at tip
• 2:21:51
  um for all these videos all the stocks i mentioned it probably done two three videos so go to the company analysis playlist go and check the pre-markets go and check the market summary i tell people go and watch every critical video that you see because honestly i move by the spirits i can decide to analyze the company and the daily market summary video i can decide to analyze the company in the middle of the market if i look at it and i find it interesting so even a team when charles says tip is a hundred and nine stock or whatever
• 2:22:22
  go and check the video we did on tip we broke down the numbers and gave all these scenarios people don't understand tip as long as you have the oil and gas space doing quite well tip is there tip is one of the handful of players that can do oil and gas waste disposal so if you ask yourself what are the prospects of the oil and gas industry in nigeria um they are looking bright a lot of the deals have been signed
• 2:22:50
  a lot of drilling may happen in the next couple of years that's good business for tip tip is not only based in nigeria tip is based in uganda uh we know that the dangote group is also looking at expanding look at establishing a refinery uh in uganda or tanzania or somewhere in east africa wherever that's business for tip you know so when we say some of these things people need to look
• 2:23:17
  look beyond this year we are halfway down through the year so there's no magic that can happen you see a market that is not 47 percent where do you want the market to rise to again if you are lucky maybe the market does another 20 30 percent that's fine but if it doesn't do it what else you want next year first half of the year is election and post-election you can't predict the market so what is more important is understand what you are buying
• 2:23:43
  understand why you are buying it and once you work out the numbers you buy it and you know you leave it and just let it be so forget about uh your ups and downs every day in the market i keep saying it when you look at a company like zenith bank zenith bank is trading global value that's one of the best run banks in this country so even if zenith bank goes to 60 or 79 i'm not for that it doesn't matter because zenith bank is
• 2:24:12
  at some point in time it's going to be trading at 120 150 you look at fcnb i i think after this uh stream i won't even discuss fcnb or even put it in the come anywhere discuss fcnb i said it before and the next two three years fcnb is a 15 to 29 stock fcnb is trading at 9.9 9.9 why is that the case book value for fcnb is about 15 or 16. fcnb has cleaned most of his books most of the nigerian banks they've all cleaned their books
• 2:24:41
  now whether banks are efficient or not efficient that's a different conversation but there is no reason why any nigerian bank top tier nigerian bank well-run nigerian bank should be trading global value at some point in time the market is going to reprice it so rather than looking for oh i mean nine naira ten naira even if the only person has it's a half one million naira i want to buy a hundred thousand fcnb shares you buy 10 10k or 20 20k or whatever amount
• 2:25:12
  yep if you for five years fcms are 29 are you good the numbers are there so when we say these things people just think we just these guys are trying numbers we give you facts the facts are in the books go and read the content go and watch the videos and this is this is this is the most conservative member of this
• 2:25:34
  of this team you know man he's telling you fcnb 29 fcnb it will run it will run even more than that like
• 2:25:47
  i've never seen another in this kind of spirit before he just gave out a lot of nuggets in uh nobody nobody should ask me anything don't dm me don't miss it you want to let go and watch your life again the book value of fcm is 14.1 the stock is at 995 there is no reason on earth that fcm should be trading below book value
• 2:26:15
  now you can say fcnb has not lived to its potential fine nobody will argue that but there's no reason with the cleanup that fcnb has done fcnb is trading at 49 when the value is 14. in addition to that of all the banks i think fcnb is the most open the the nd is always out there you know telling telling investors what they are doing and all that stuff and this be very
• 2:26:42
  Fort right. He's always come out, you know, I just think Anybody is expecting to see a very big role like when my bank didn't if you are looking for a nurse from a bank FCN be FCN be sure your place to go there was this question somebody was asking the question as to As to why they have been so many big sales in a rather you must understand that
• 2:27:11
  For a long time, Harada was kind of in a close period, right? Just because they couldn't release their result, a lot of people, a lot of insiders could not take advantage of the high price that Harada went to. A lot of them bought at 400, 500, and then it got to like almost 2,000.
• 2:27:41
  The delay result put all of them under the closed period. And because of that, they could not sell. So like when the result was released, that was the time they had the opportunity to take profit. And if you are talking about them selling, what about the buys? There have been a lot of buys too within this same period. So again, when you see insiders,
• 2:28:09
  Family members of insiders buying the shares, it just points you to one direction. Buying Aradel is like buying five to six oil and gas companies. It's not going to... There are certain things you will not see right now. And this is what we have been seeing. Oil and gas is a different kind of business. You can see how long it took them.
• 2:28:38
  to consolidate their results. And if you noticed, the audited result, it looked like the unaudited result was more conservative than the audited result, so to speak. So people have to factor in. I said this before. CEPLAT, they had like a one-month downtime in the first quarter.
• 2:29:09
  So you didn't really see the full potential of what their gas is doing for them right now. And again, even with what you are seeing in gas, it's just the tip of the iceberg because a lot of investment has gone into that area and you are going to see some results that will blow your mind. And for anybody who has...
• 2:29:39
  uh are there right now there are certain stocks i just say when you have them in your portfolio just take them as your retirement stock you understand there's no point trying to be trading or playing with them you know the only time you trade with them is if you have so much of it you understand but if you have like maybe a small position any time you see a deep in it you try and add anomer has given you almost everything
• 2:30:10
  The major nuggets, he gave them in that short five minutes, this thing. And he's very conservative. If he tells you something, he's going for 10 ayer. You can be sure that he can do another times two from the prices telling you. So we have a way of checking ourselves. We have those who are extremely super bullish. We have those who are in between. And then we have the super conservative. Nomer is super conservative when it comes to...
• 2:30:40
  valuation of stocks but believe you me uh um go back and play that that that piece and he said almost like everything uh telling you about uh uh setting like there are certain stocks in the market now because of the affiliation to other stocks we use it as a means to getting some of the stocks i don't know if what i'm saying makes sense
• 2:31:08
  There are certain stocks in the market right now, because of their affiliations to some other stocks, we use it as a means to getting to those stocks. Sometimes I can be very, very coded, but if you... I was speaking in parables there. I think, well, blessed are those that joined this space or this live stream. Yes. I'm going to be a bit blunt.
• 2:31:38
  so you take you and i've mentioned it we discussed it just now so if people are not paying attention go back again go and take updc upcd is 51 owned by custodian 49 or so or 40 70 owned by uac uac wants to put their looking for money to put back into the food business custodian has two choices buy out everybody with cash or buy out everybody with shares or buying with a mix of shares so
• 2:32:09
  there is no other way to look at it even if i mean updc is less than four naira custodian decides to buy out everybody at five now six now seven there are three four years where else will you see four million becoming seven million into three years i mean so um lastly i i've i've discussed um uacn i'm not going to discuss uacn i've done i can't say it in all humility i've done the best
• 2:32:38
  coverage of uac in this nigerian market nobody evil evil nobody no no even the company itself i've done a better job i've done the best i've done the best coverage if it does me go and take my uac video look for any analyst reports in this country none india is pull it off none so
• 2:33:05
  go and watch all the uac videos i've done maybe three or four videos on uac i'm not discussing uac anymore there was another question somebody was asking about uh wapco and let me see okay yes the analysis on wapco wapco is simple wapco is uh and again i'll refer you zura go and watch any of the pre-market videos i did this week i've covered wapco covered all the cement companies there are only three so it's very easy to cover
• 2:33:34
  um the only the only unclear area about what if i would say we have more clarity now because a few days ago we saw the md of uh wapco buying shares the md is nigerian so when you see the md of the company buying shares it tells you that they are not delisting anytime soon because if they were delisting there's no way he's going to be buying shares of the company that he's released any time soon so if you remove that cloud about we did the news we did not release
• 2:34:03
  what is good to go what is cheap um the most expensive they are all cheap if you take all and again i refer you to the video for those that like to see numbers one look at the earnings growth in the last three years for those companies one look at um one calculate the peg ratio for this company it's all below one what code dango this immense lafayette how cheap just that uh has the biggest upside how you look you should look at the countries you say look
• 2:34:35
  And again, I mentioned this yesterday. If you assume that these companies grow their earnings 15, 20% for the next four, five years, take today's earnings per share, scale it up by 100% for five years and do your multiple, you can see that these companies are still quite cheap. There's no substitute to cement in the world right now. There's no substitute to cement in Nigeria anytime soon. Whether for building materials, whether for urban roads, there's no substitute. So WAPCO is cheap.
• 2:35:03
  And there's a question on Fidelity and assets. Fidelity is trading close to its book value. The challenge with Fidelity was a cult issue that cannot track them. Fidelity has raised a chunk of money. So I put Fidelity and FCNB in the same bucket, even though I think FCNB has more upside compared to Fidelity.
• 2:35:31
  but when you look at i mean the book value for fidelity is 20.8 stock is i think that's 18 naira so what's the upside so 2026 people are looking for a massive upside 2026 is not the year of massive upside of fcr and fidelity 2026 is a transition year for these companies for many of these companies most of the money they raised last year they just got it maybe two three months ago so the money has not even been fully deployed so you need to give these companies one year to raise the money um
• 2:36:01
  and in terms of transparency like charles said fcnb is most transparent go and play his online is available it's on the fcnb page go and play fcnb investor call go and play fidelity call fidelity has already told people how much you're going to pay as dividend this year and i stand by my statement because when the company has given you their target profit before tax
• 2:36:25
  You knock off 30% and you divide it by its outstanding shares. You have gotten its earnings per share. Once you have the earnings per share, you can calculate whether it's 30, 40, 50% of payouts. So they've told you all you need to know. Go and play their content. Go and read. If you don't have the time, go and go to download the investor presentation. 20, 30 pages, simple pages, you are done. So Fidelity has room to run, but I don't see Fidelity doing more than 22, 23 now at this year's.
• 2:36:54
  which is not bad but uh it's a transition year for fidelity i would say check fidelity next two three years that's a 30 to 49 stop for assets it's quite simple yep assets assets has a perception issue access is the cheapest tier one banking name but even if you look at most analyst reports the target price most people have for access is uh maybe 30 35 40.
• 2:37:23
  meanwhile access should be traded at if you're looking at the full value full book value of assets in 79 share for assets as a perception issue when you don't explain things properly to the public when you don't come out to outline assets i have said this in one of our charts we said this it's not enough for you to say you are buying banks when you go and listen to shagun abadie shagun will tell you here is what you are doing here is why we are doing it
• 2:37:52
  here is our expectation assets need to start talking like that we have bought all these banks but some of the if you ask the layman on the streets why the assets go to a certain country in naira and kubota they can't tell you so assets as a perception issue see they can fix paint a better picture see they can explain to people why where they are going to when can people see the benefits once they do that
• 2:38:21
  people will price it into the markets so that is the issue one issue that access has two is because assets is such a big bank managing all those banks i mean how old are some of these acquisitions some are two years old some are three years old if you bought a bank three years ago three years ago you can't expect the bank to start living full potential it might take them 100 to three years to maximize returns on those banks so
• 2:38:48
  access is the biggest bank in the country eventually access will scale up but i always will say access has two options some of these acquisitions i suspect will be suboptimal they will exceed them i don't get why access to for instance anyway i don't think they are pushing their south african goals there are some countries from a trade perspective i don't know why access is there but like i said they've not done a good job
• 2:39:15
  access might have to unwind some of those acquisitions and at the same time access would need to scale up some of those plays so access is a four five year play it's not um it's not a near-term play give them a couple of years and then i think access should be better i see comments on one do uh i'm not discussing one do maybe said could discuss one one is not what it's not what's uh
• 2:39:46
  my discussion at any point in time. Any reason why I wonder is 200 is yet to release their 2025 BFS. Maybe it's an accounting team. I don't know why. I've discussed everything. I have nothing else to say today. I guess we've done about almost 2 hours 40 minutes. We can call it a day, right? Yeah, and for every other question that I'm seeing on the platform, if you
• 2:40:14
  go and check our videos on this platform. All those questions would have been answered as to is there substantial value or upside in UACN? Yes, we have not seen a quarter of the synergy that CHI brings to UACN yet. There has been a lot of redeployment within the organization just to make sure that they get
• 2:40:45
  everything from that Civita acquisition. A lot of people have been pushing to Civita and, you know, a lot of things are happening. You haven't seen a quarter of what, of the synergy we are expecting in UACN yet. So, just get that at the back of your mind. Link Assure, if you have Link Assure, the only thing I will tell you,
• 2:41:13
  Hold it tightly. Bega Paint is a very well-run company, and it will continue to be so. So if you have Bega Paint, again, hold it. Every other question here, like when I see some of these questions, I can tell some of you are first-time listeners to this platform. I will ask you to subscribe. Go.
• 2:41:43
  to the videos and check the companies you are looking for. There's no company that analysis has not been done on. So that's what I would say because I'm just looking at all these questions. They are just basically the same questions we are getting. M-Benefit is a good stock. I think they have met the requirement for the new capitalization.
• 2:42:12
  WAPCO is a must-have in your portfolio because since the Chinese are now running that company, you are going to see what they call super efficiency. So all the fears, Nome just said that, all the fears people had about them, the listing is far-fetched. WAPCO is like national treasure. It's not something that will fly.
• 2:42:41
  Because you need approval from several organizations. WAPCO is not just a company that is starting. WAPCO has been in existence for a very long time in the country. So all those who are scared that WAPCO is going to go private, discard those fears. I just think sometimes these rumors are created by people.
• 2:43:06
  who want to like get these equities for cheap so don't sell your web code for cheap hold on to your web code like i said there are certain stocks we refer to as retirement stocks if you have them in your portfolio you keep adding and adding and adding until you get to that point where you say okay if i retire and these people pay me half year dividend you should be able to take care of me for the next six months or there about and that's how you should be looking at investment um
• 2:43:35
  Start teaching your kids how to invest early. We will continue to do this. If it's something that you guys like, depending on the number of likes, depending on the number of subscriptions we get when we do this, that will determine whether this is going to be a regular thing. But all things being equal, we enjoy the fact that there's so much.
• 2:44:02
  audience participation in this and with time too we might be bringing some some of you to come on live and ask the question ask your questions so that so that we're able to like put a face to who we are talking to we are very transparent people we are not hiding anything so we'll continue to make sure that
• 2:44:29
  you get quality market information. But again, it's not for this information to just stay with you. We want you guys to let other people know, let people be aware that there's a platform that promotes financial education and financial independence for well-meaning Nigerians. You understand? And that once you have financial independence,
• 2:44:57
  your chances of taking good decisions becomes better, you know. You cannot be compromised easily because, I mean, like you have a price then, you know. So let's continue to support the channel by subscribing, by sharing. And, you know, we are going to be going on another platform. We are doing it on YouTube today. Maybe next week we might decide to do it on Rumble.
• 2:45:26
  which is another platform. So we just want to appeal to everybody, the young ones. We might decide to do a TikTok live one day. So we have plans. We want to be all-inclusive. We want a situation where everybody is seeing this and they are thinking, yeah, that's true, I could be making some money for myself here rather than wasting time and not doing anything.
• 2:45:55
  It's been nice being with you guys. Some of us, at the end of this show, we still go and do our normal jobs for the day. And yeah, that's the sacrifice we make. And we enjoy doing it. We are not complaining. We actually enjoy doing this for all of you. So thank you once again. Is Senko still there? Onome, we can't hear you. Onome, we can't hear you. All right. So I said...
• 2:46:39
  We didn't get any questions about the brewery space, but I'll just touch on that space. All I'll tell people is go and watch all, maybe, I don't know, maybe I might just decide for the fun of it to just touch on brewery space sometime next week or whenever, or maybe I'll do it on Spotify. But in any case, Nigerian Breweries is a hundred and nine stop. Nigerian Breweries is the biggest brewer in this country. And the Nigerian Breweries is the cheapest brewer.
• 2:47:09
  by uh four days so i think people if you have a three four year timeline the only possible enemy against the breweries the country is your foreign exchange rates and taxes if your fx rate stays steady if taxes don't go up dramatically for them in that space those companies have a long way to go so i think nigerian breweries of what the brothers has the most upside
• 2:47:37
  uh for more context i'll say you can check any of the pre-market videos i think i did maybe last two weeks of them other than that i thank you all for joining if you are new here please put on your notifications uh there's a possibility that we may be we set up a similar live stream tomorrow i don't know when i don't know what time because we're all in different time zones all i'll say is put on your notifications so you get to um you get to know what we call life follow on all platforms
• 2:48:04
  you check the description you can find all platforms if you're not sure uh we'll pin all the social media handles we'll pin them to the comments and it'll be the top paying comments on this uh live stream once once we're done um thank you all for joining have yourselves a lovely rest of it