Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / CFP Second Round Picks, Totals and New Year's Eve Betting Guide

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CFP Second Round Picks, Totals and New Year's Eve Betting Guide · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello everyone. Welcome to Targeting Winners.
0:06
Thank you for joining me. I'm joined today as usual by
0:10
Peter and Darren. How you guys doing?
0:14
Not too bad getting there. New year, so almost 2026.
0:17
Happy to be here again, Excited for the playoff games coming up
0:21
and all of that. So looking forward to a good
0:23
week. Yeah, you sunburned yet?
0:26
You look like you're. I'm toast up nice and nice and
0:30
brown. At this point it's been a month
0:31
and 1/2 so I'm cooked up at a nice level.
0:33
Let's say it's not bad. Darren, any sunburn for you?
0:36
No and Pete can fuck all the way off.
0:41
After the snow we had from our last show, we've been blessed
0:44
with freezing rain. I hate New York, Tim, find me a
0:47
house in Florida. Anytime you've got a free hour
0:49
on your hands, I will pack up and move immediately.
0:54
All right, well, we're going to talk about the the games.
0:56
We're also going to get to peek at a second Christmas present.
1:00
He had one show on Moore extremely early one right around
1:04
Christmas time with a new coach at Michigan.
1:07
And we'll get into our picks. But first, if you're listening
1:09
to us on Spotify or app a podcast, thank you very much.
1:12
Please consider following the show and maybe sharing the
1:17
episode with your friends. Maybe tell them about us.
1:19
If you're watching us on YouTube, please like and
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subscribe to our channel. We really appreciate it.
1:24
It keeps us going and it helps us out.
1:25
And it's free and easy so Peter can.
1:28
I give a shout out to specifically the Spotify people
1:31
'cause they send you your, your numbers and your stats every
1:35
year, how your show's doing and, and we've kind of grown a lot on
1:39
Spotify. So all you guys that have joined
1:41
us and listened to us, we put audio up there, we put the video
1:44
up there as well. So a few Spotify peeps.
1:47
Thanks very much. We had a a really good year and
1:50
you guys are a big part of that. So much thanks.
1:53
Yes, thank you. Absolutely.
1:57
So Peter, you had no coach, now you've got a coach.
2:03
Yes, we have a coach that. Yeah, I mean, it's it's a good
2:09
hireright? It's not to me.
2:12
It's not a home run hire. I've seen it kicked around as
2:15
such. It's it's a home rider.
2:17
It's a home run hire in the sense that he's somebody who can
2:21
stabilize the program, right. He's somebody who, you know,
2:24
created a culture and a program, you know, at Utah for a long
2:28
time. You know, that's a quality
2:30
program, quality culture, all of that.
2:33
You know, Hall of Fame coach there.
2:34
I mean, you know, a guy that is going to be the right kind of
2:38
coach that Michigan needs right now.
2:40
There's been enough nonsense, enough scandals, enough of the
2:42
stuff that's going on. You know, we needed this type of
2:45
person, whether him or not, it's what we needed, right?
2:49
We, you know, we didn't need, you know, kind of like a young,
2:53
you know, coordinator coming in. We didn't need that, right?
2:55
We needed, you know, an experienced coach who's been
2:57
there, done it and all of that. And so I think from that
3:00
perspective, it's a great hire. Yeah.
3:03
I mean, do I see national championships coming anytime
3:06
soon? I do not.
3:07
But do I see the program hopefully moving back toward a
3:10
stable, respectful level? I do, right?
3:15
And so that's good, right? Because I think that's what's
3:17
needed right now is. So from that perspective, I'm
3:20
happy. I think it'll be it'll be a good
3:22
thing and we'll see how it goes. But yeah, I mean, you, you
3:25
couldn't ask for a a better guy to come in and put out the fire
3:29
and just get things kind of stable.
3:32
And and from that perspective, I'm happy.
3:33
It's obviously not the guy I wanted.
3:35
I'm a big PJ Fleck guy. We've talked about that.
3:37
That wasn't going to happen anytime soon, but P JS young
3:40
enough. So maybe when, you know, this
3:43
goes its merry way a few years from now, maybe that'll be P JS
3:47
time. But at least at this moment, I'm
3:48
pretty happy that we we got pretty quickly through this
3:52
process without rushing it. We got a coach that I'm happy
3:56
with and it seems that most people are pretty happy with, so
3:59
that's that's a good thing. So overall I'm happy way better
4:02
than we were. We have an actual coach rather
4:05
than the guy that had been bashing for two years, so I'm
4:08
good about that. Well, yeah, actually, Mark from
4:12
coach's hot seat was all over it.
4:13
The very next morning, we got an e-mail.
4:16
He had a similar, similar take, and he thinks that Michigan may
4:19
be looking for another coach within a couple years.
4:22
Waddington's more of a stopgap kind of guy.
4:25
Oh, reminds me, during the offseason we are going to have
4:29
some other some more content for you guys out there.
4:31
One of the shows, I believe sometime in February we're going
4:35
to do a live stream with Mark. So instead of a ask me anything,
4:38
it's going to be Ask Mark anything.
4:40
All your coaches. Do you have a date on that yet,
4:42
Darren? It looks like we're we're, no
4:46
pun intended, targeting the week of February 9th.
4:50
That'll give us Mark and anybody else who's followed college
4:54
football all year long, nice little two or three-week break
4:57
after the national title game. He has agreed to do the show.
5:01
We're going to hammer out a day and time that worked best for
5:03
him. He's he's 3 hours behind you and
5:06
I, Tim, two hours behind Pete. So probably in the next, I
5:11
probably say probably around the national championship week,
5:13
maybe the Tuesday or Wednesday after that game's done, I will
5:16
get with him. But yeah, it's a go.
5:18
He's on board. He loves the idea.
5:21
Probably set around an hour or so.
5:22
Just bring your questions. Coaches you love, coaches you
5:24
hate, you want to know why your coach isn't fired yet?
5:26
Chances are Mark knows why. So it should be a good time.
5:30
And we do have a schedule that's I would say probably 8590%.
5:37
I don't want to say set in stone because the dates can always
5:39
change, but as far as some content in the offseason, so,
5:43
you know, final channels don't do that.
5:44
We love college football, so we're going to talk about
5:46
whatever. There'll be a lot of conference
5:48
previews. We may even have some of those
5:49
things live for some of the Power 4 conferences.
5:52
We'll see how it goes. But yes, Mark's live stream is
5:54
ready to go sometime second week in February.
5:57
Yeah, well, like we did a show with him a while back.
6:00
Remember after we after we got done recording.
6:03
I wish I kept the recording going because he was giving us
6:05
some inside baseball with what happened with Reggie Bush, USC
6:09
and meeting the Moss kids family at the one of the bowl games or
6:13
whatever. But the stuff he was talking
6:15
about with Reggie Bush's family was pretty interesting.
6:18
I wasn't had the recorder going, but Oh well.
6:21
But yeah, he, he knows his stuff.
6:23
He's got some inside scoops. He's got some sources.
6:26
Definitely check out coacheshotseat.com and we'll
6:29
have him here live to answer your questions in February.
6:32
And with that, let's do some bowl games, guys.
6:35
We got the Independence Bowl. It's gonna be this Thursday at
6:39
2:00. Sharee Port Louisiana, Louisiana
6:41
Tech -7 with over under a 52 1/2 against Coastal Carolina.
6:47
Darren, we will start with you on this one.
6:50
You know, I mean, I'm never a fan of programs where the coach
6:54
is gone most of the time, and Coastal Carolina does fit that
6:59
bill. As Tim Beck has left, their
7:02
defense coordinator is the interim for this game.
7:05
So naturally I would lean Louisiana Tech, but they're
7:09
going to be rolling with their third string quarterback because
7:11
Blake Baker and Evan Bullock are not expected to play here for
7:14
Tech. Tech's never been known as an
7:17
offensive powerhouse this year, neither has Coastal Carolina.
7:22
But as I look at DraftKings I I see the spread is sitting around
7:25
10 and while I don't have a bet on it, if I had to have a lean
7:31
here, I would lean to take that 10 because I I don't really know
7:34
what we're going to get out of either offense. 10 just seems
7:38
too good to pass up. Total's 50 1/2.
7:41
I'd feel more confident that was maybe around 4344, but I would
7:46
lean the 10 here with Coastal. Not super confident in it but
7:49
that's that's where I would head.
7:52
Peter, any thoughts? Yeah, that total has been coming
7:54
down. Opened at 52 1/2.
7:56
I had 51 1/2, it's down to 50 1/2.
7:58
So it's been coming down. No surprise, based on what
8:01
Darren said, I thought about going under in this game.
8:04
I mean, to me it's a bit of a coin flip, but based on all the
8:06
factors that Darren just said, a little bit of a lacking offense
8:09
and a law tech side and a third string quarterback, I don't know
8:12
what you're going to coastal side.
8:14
I mean, it kind of sniffs an under here, but honestly, I
8:18
don't know what's going to happen with this game.
8:19
To me, it's a bit of a coin flip.
8:20
So I agree with Darren, if you're going to do anything,
8:23
maybe take those points, but otherwise, I don't know what to
8:26
do with that. So I'm just staying away.
8:28
Right. Interesting takes on that one.
8:30
We're going to move on Music City Bowl again.
8:33
This is on the 30th, 5:30 in Nashville.
8:38
We got a opening line of Tennessee -6 1/2, but over under
8:42
61 1/2 against Illinois. Got a few portals and opt outs
8:48
there for each team. Well, Pete, we'll start with
8:51
you. We got one of your Big 10 teams
8:52
here. Where do you come down on this
8:54
one here? Yeah.
8:55
I mean, this feels like scoring, right.
8:58
I mean, to me originally it felt like quite a bit scoring 61
9:01
1/2's a pretty big number for a bowl.
9:05
Yeah. So I don't know.
9:06
I mean, but it also felt like kind of the right number.
9:08
And that's that's where I was struggling a bit with this.
9:10
This almost felt like a 5050 to me with that number.
9:14
It's always been all over the place this year in terms of
9:17
scoring. So I don't really know if I can
9:18
trust them to score enough. And I was, I was kind of leaning
9:22
on the on the under on this just because I didn't know where it
9:24
was going to go. But honestly, I really, really
9:28
didn't. I mean, I think Tennessee is
9:29
going to win this game. If I was doing anything, I might
9:31
weigh those points with 6 1/2 and go with Tennessee just
9:34
because of the way Illinois has been all year, kind of little
9:36
Jekyll and Heinish. So if I was going anywhere, I'd
9:39
go there. But with that point, point,
9:41
point, point, point, point, whatever I'm trying to say
9:45
there, I would not. I'm just going to move on.
9:47
And Darren? They off to tequila.
9:49
So it's on here. I was actually leaning the under
9:52
here. I was thinking about firing with
9:54
the 61 just in case of the Illinois defense does show up.
9:58
But Dana, where do you come down with this game?
10:01
Yeah, I mean, I was going to leave this game alone and
10:04
actually I officially did not have a play on this, but I see
10:07
DraftKings, Tennessee's down to 3 1/2 and that actually has me
10:13
leaning toward the Volunteers in this one.
10:17
Total I had actually was a little bit different.
10:19
I I mean, Tennessee's defense complete ass and their defensive
10:23
coordinator has been fired. So I don't expect it to improve
10:26
in this game. Illinois opt outs aren't, I
10:30
mean, there's not any. I mean, Tennessee's got a lot.
10:33
I mean, they have as many injuries as they have opt outs.
10:38
Illinois doesn't really have a whole lot.
10:40
I mean one of their offensive lineman who started all 12 games
10:42
is out, but that's pretty much it.
10:45
But 3 1/2? I have a slightly strong lean
10:50
towards Tennessee here. Yeah, I only have so much room
10:54
on these slides for the for the graphics, so I just put the
10:57
first table that I see. You would need another page for
11:00
Tennessee. At least two more slides for all
11:02
these opt outs, especially one, I think the the Nebraska game,
11:06
Nebraska, Utah, we'll get to you later on that a crap ton between
11:09
the injuries and all the players out.
11:11
It's just a colossal screw up here.
11:14
So we got the Alamo Bowl coming up Tuesday on the 30th, 9 O
11:18
clock, San Antonio, TX opening line, USC -5 1/2.
11:21
It opened up. I believe it's 6 1/2 now over
11:25
under a 55 1/2. We got a couple of big opt outs
11:29
there for TCU or actually a transfer portal.
11:32
Actually, let's see. We started with Darren last time
11:35
I believe. So Peter USCTCU, where you
11:38
coming? Yeah, so that #55 1/2 is, is
11:42
interesting. I mean, I, I'm leaning on the
11:45
under in this game. I said I didn't, I didn't play
11:46
it. But I mean, it's not, this just
11:48
feels like it's going to be a little less fireworks than what
11:52
you would expect. I think the tempo tempo's going
11:54
to be a little slower than you would expect with this.
11:56
I mean, at USC was, you know, earlier in the season, they were
11:59
scoring quite a bit. I, I, that slowed down a little
12:01
bit. So I, I really think you're
12:03
going to see this game slower than expected.
12:06
So I'm leaning under not playing it here, but that's what I think
12:09
is going to happen. So what's my thoughts?
12:12
And here we go with Dan. I believe we got to play on this
12:14
one, don't we? Yeah, it's up to 6 1/2 and I
12:16
laid it with USC, man, I I know they've got some people that
12:19
have declared for the draft, especially at the wide receiver
12:21
position, but you know what their QB Jade Mitvi is in Josh
12:26
Hoover is not for TCU. And I don't know how they are
12:29
going to score points without Hoover playing.
12:32
So anything. 6 1/2, I mean, seven maybe I would avoid it a
12:37
little, but if USC doesn't win this by double digits, I'll be
12:41
stunned. Yeah, I got 1 unit USC laying
12:44
the 6 1/2. I was thinking the same thing.
12:47
How is CC going to score any stats on a backup?
12:51
Has he? How much has he played this
12:53
year? Anything or.
12:54
Not a whole heck of a lot, but I mean you the thing.
12:57
I mean, US CS, I mean, we bash Lincoln Riley, you know,
13:01
especially if you've been following Notre Dame Twitter.
13:03
Now he's blaming Notre Dame for backing out of the rivalry when
13:07
he spent most of his college career backing out of any tough
13:09
games that he's been faced with. But the one thing he does do is
13:14
he gets talent to come and play for him.
13:17
So who's ever missing for USCI expect just as high quality an
13:21
athlete to fill in. I think the 6 1/2 is way low.
13:26
It would not surprise me if if by kick off.
13:28
What is this game tomorrow? Yeah, this is, I believe, late
13:30
tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if this
13:33
hits 7, but yeah, get it at 6 1/2 if you still can.
13:36
Jump on it if you can. All right?
13:40
We got the Reliquist Bowl Wednesday the 31st Tampa, FL.
13:44
You got Vanderbilt -4 but over under a 49 1/2 against Iowa.
13:50
At the time I printed this slide, there were no opt outs.
13:53
I did not check this morning for corrections.
13:55
I don't know if you've seen any, but Dan, we'll start with you.
13:59
Yeah, look at real quick. I do see Vanderbilt's tight end
14:01
Eli Stauer's is opting out. That's obviously going to be a
14:05
big blow. After.
14:06
Vanderbilt's offense, but I'm looking at this spread now.
14:10
I was getting five and a half. Oh, you do have it in there.
14:14
Sorry. I would lean Iowa here, man.
14:17
I mean, no matter what they're, you know, they always say
14:20
defense travels. So 5 1/2.
14:24
I mean, it's not really anywhere near a key number.
14:26
I I I would take Iowa here. Peter, another Big 10 here.
14:30
What you got? Yeah, like that we know.
14:32
We know that I like Iowa, so in this position against Vandy,
14:36
makes a lot of sense to me. Totals 46 1/2.
14:38
This is another one of those games that feels like a strong
14:41
under to me. So I do have a play here.
14:43
So I'm playing the under at 46 1/2 on this game.
14:46
It just falls into, you know, for me, it's like a probability
14:51
game like 70% under. I mean, that's just the the with
14:53
the Iowa style defense does travel as Darren said.
14:57
And I expect we're going to see a lot of defense here.
14:59
So getting to that 46 1/2 is going to be challenging, I
15:03
think. So I feel pretty confident in
15:05
the under here. So one unit on the under of. 46
15:08
1/2 or me, the tight end out for Vanderbilt's going to be he's
15:11
probably going to be one of the top tight ends in the draft.
15:13
I mean, might actually be the first one maybe I only can't
15:16
think of maybe the kid up there in Oregon.
15:20
But yeah, he's one of the top tight ends.
15:22
He's it's a big weapon for the Pavia Mafia.
15:26
So and another breakfast bowl here we got the Tornado Tiger.
15:30
So the Alamo Bowl, I believe this is or the Sun Bowl and it's
15:35
called the Frosted Flakes bowl. It's you know who who doesn't
15:37
love that? This Wednesday at 2:00 in Texas,
15:40
we got Duke minus a point and 1/2.
15:42
It has moved 2 -, 3 with over under a 51 1/2.
15:46
It opened. It's now down to 49 1/2.
15:50
Sam Levitt, I believe is in the portal, too many of the list for
15:56
for the rest of the way. I got some of the key ones on
15:57
there. Peter, we'll start with you with
16:00
Arizona State and Duke. Yeah, I mean, with those opt
16:05
outs and and the fact that this number is kind of declining
16:07
would would speak to those opt outs.
16:09
I mean, to me, I, I don't have a play here.
16:11
It's just for for me, I mean, if I was going to do anything, I'd
16:13
go under here. But with this many opt outs on
16:16
both sides, it's it's just challenging to play this game.
16:20
So I don't I I don't know what to do with it because I don't
16:22
know who's going to be on the field at this point.
16:24
But to me, I'd still lean under. But I'm I'm not playing anything
16:26
here. It's just it's just too tough to
16:28
play this. All right, Darren.
16:31
I laid the three with Duke here. I am not a fan of the Blue
16:34
Devils defense. I mean last year they were
16:36
excellent under Manny Diaz. I don't know what the hell
16:38
happened this year they they look terrible.
16:41
Mensa is still slated to play here for Duke.
16:44
No reason why he would not. You had mentioned some of the
16:47
opt outs for Arizona State. I can't even fit the whole list
16:52
of them on my screen. You mentioned Sam Levitt, he's
16:55
gone. Their top receiver, Jordan
16:57
Tyson, who's hurt and has declared for the NFL draft, one
17:00
of their tight ends with 4T DS is out.
17:03
There are two starting tackles who have played all 12 games out
17:07
there. Center out, two defensive
17:10
lineman out, two linebackers, 3 quarterbacks, 2 safeties all
17:14
out. I, I mean, Duke's defense bad.
17:17
I don't know what Arizona State's got left to to take
17:20
advantage of that three. Looks almost like a late
17:25
Christmas present. I mean, it's it's a little bit
17:27
heavily juiced right now. I'm showing Duke -3 -, 112 on
17:34
DraftKings. Yeah.
17:36
I just don't know what Arizona State's got left to attack a
17:40
Duke defense that really isn't that good.
17:43
But again, quarterback play, give me Mensa over whoever the
17:46
Hell's taking snaps for Arizona State.
17:48
So I laid the three here with the Blue Devils.
17:52
Yeah, I kind of agree there. Maybe even under Peter.
17:54
What are you thinking? Yeah, I mean, maybe the under.
17:56
I mean, I agree with Lando's points.
17:58
I mean the the under, as I said, there's so many opt outs it's
18:00
really hard to say. But I don't know what Arizona
18:02
State's going to do in terms of scoring.
18:03
So that screams under as well. So I mean, if anything, yeah,
18:07
I'll play the points first. If anything else, play the but
18:11
it's just it's just hard to tell.
18:14
All right, Biff, Poggi and the boys.
18:16
Michigan playing against Texas. This is Wednesday at 3 in
18:20
Orlando, FL, Texas. The opening line of -4 1/2 moved
18:24
to 7 1/2 I believe currently as of yesterday, over under went
18:27
from 46 1/2 to 48 1/2. Edge rusher opted out.
18:34
I have to ask, is it Derek Moore Any relation to the coach?
18:38
Is that why he's opting out? Is that any?
18:40
No relation there? No.
18:42
We we have an edge rusher because I haven't seen one in
18:44
weeks, but sure. So I just, you know, yeah, put
18:48
it out there so well. Well, I think we'll let Darren
18:51
go 1st and give you the floor for your boys after.
18:53
That yeah, 'cause I, I looked at this game and I want no part of
18:58
this game whatsoever. Initially I was leaning Texas,
19:03
but I I missed out on the best number and they, you know, their
19:08
top 2 running backs have hit the portal.
19:11
Well, actually they're top three because I believe Jared Gibson,
19:14
like he actually left the team like midway through the season.
19:16
But John Ray Moore's in the portal, they got a couple
19:19
defensive lineman who have opted out, a couple linebackers who
19:22
opted out, like 4 secondary players have opted out and their
19:28
defensive coordinator was fired. So that being said, I don't
19:33
really know what the hell I'm going to get out of Michigan
19:35
either. So I will watch this because I
19:39
actually get off work at 3:00 on Wednesday, so it'll be a perfect
19:43
Segway from work to watching this game as a fan because I
19:47
have no financial interest in this at all.
19:52
Peter, the floor is yours. Great.
19:54
Yeah, I'm going to watch. I don't know.
19:58
Yeah, I don't. I don't know what we're going to
20:00
see. I think.
20:01
I think the Michigan defense is going to just play pissed off.
20:04
That's what I think is going to happen.
20:06
After this whole thing about the team being embarrassed about all
20:09
this nonsense, it is. It is a defense that has talent.
20:13
And you know, they're kind of parting thing here.
20:15
So I think they're going to play pissed off.
20:17
I don't know what the offense is going to do.
20:19
And I don't even care because with this number, I'm betting
20:22
the under anyway here. And I don't care what Texas
20:24
offense is going to do because I think Michigan's going to
20:26
largely shut them down. I've been impressed with their
20:29
offense. As I said many times before,
20:31
when Texas plays a really good defense, especially a Big 10
20:35
one, they get shut down. So I expect that will happen
20:37
here. So this screams the under.
20:40
I don't, I think Texas will probably win because Michigan is
20:42
who knows, it's just completely dismantled at this point.
20:46
But I do expect the Michigan's defense to show up.
20:49
They better show up or I'm going to throw something through the
20:51
TV. So from from that perspective, I
20:54
expect the under should play pretty nice.
20:56
But this is definitely not going to be a shootout.
20:58
I don't see how this turns into a shootout in any way, shape or
21:02
form. So to me, that 48 1/2 is what I
21:05
got is a pretty high number for a game that's not going to be a
21:09
shootout. There is literally no chance
21:11
this is going to be a shootout. It's like that, you know, it
21:14
might be a 10 game or something or 20, who knows, but not a
21:18
shootout. So, and from that perspective, I
21:20
feel pretty confident with the under.
21:22
I do not feel confident in my team.
21:25
So those are my thoughts. Any chance Winningham keeps Biff
21:29
Poggi on the staff if. He's smart, he will.
21:32
He might. I mean, he might.
21:35
I mean, everyone was the guy. He's held the team together.
21:37
If they go on there, play. Play well for Biff.
21:41
I want to get Michigan so bad, but I mean, I really hope they
21:44
win this game. So and we have all Michigan
21:49
Texas under 48 1/2 as the the official pick.
21:52
You put that in right, Pete? Yes, Sir, under.
21:55
OK, here's again we referenced earlier, we got Wednesday 330
22:00
Las Vegas, NV, Utah opened up at -13 1/2 is went to 16 1/2 then
22:06
back down to 14 1/2. The over under opened at 50 1/2.
22:11
You know, Ryola's still out. Obviously running back is out.
22:15
That's all they need to be out for.
22:18
For Nebraska, I had on here at Kyle Winnieham's last game, its
22:22
head coach last game as head coach for Utah, not his last
22:25
game as head coach. So we have that going on.
22:28
So I guess we'll start with Peter this time.
22:32
Where are you coming down on this game here to Las Vegas
22:33
Bowl? Well, yeah, new head coach,
22:36
great to great to see him. I'd like to see him win and get
22:38
get out on a win, which I think they'll want to go out and win.
22:41
I think the whole team, a lot of the team anyway, there's only
22:44
two. I mean, he's he built this
22:46
program. I mean, I'd love to see him win.
22:49
I'm sure his players going to rally around the guy and play
22:51
well for him. I have little doubt of that.
22:53
So I fully expect that Utah will win this game, probably pretty
22:57
handily would be my thought. Obviously, I'd play totals here.
23:01
You know, 50 1/2 is what I was looking at.
23:03
I don't know what to do with that.
23:04
So I don't know what Nebraska's going to do.
23:06
I probably would have been leaning under, but I'm I'm, I'm
23:10
not playing it. But I do think, you know, if I
23:11
was going to do anything here, I would probably lay the points
23:14
for Utah. That's a pretty big number, but
23:16
I'd still probably lay those points.
23:17
But that's my thoughts. Darren.
23:21
Yeah, I don't. Is Whittingham actually coaching
23:24
this game? I mean, he had the press
23:25
conference yesterday or the other day.
23:27
Is he actually coaching this? Game.
23:30
I don't, I don't think so. I think, I actually think he's
23:33
going to be at the Michigan game.
23:35
OK, yeah, that's what I thought. I I thought I had read somewhere
23:38
that he, yeah, Kyle Whittingham won't coach Utah in the bowl
23:43
game. So.
23:44
All right, so that makes sense because I got something here
23:46
that says the defensive coordinator has taken over as
23:50
the full time head coach, which apparently if you've been
23:52
following Utah, this has been planned for like two or three
23:54
years. They were just waiting for
23:56
Whittingham to get out of the way.
23:57
So he is not going to be coaching this game.
24:01
But like Pete had said, I would lay these boys on a minute.
24:05
Nebraska is a train wreck, man. I mean.
24:10
What about the under? I mean, I think Nebraska's going
24:14
to score much the. Problem is, Utah could
24:16
potentially get 48 on their own, which means Nebraska just needs
24:19
to kick a field goal. That's.
24:22
The issue I, I don't know what in the, I mean, look at it in
24:25
the, I mean, you'd mentioned Rayola's gone.
24:28
You know, their defense coordinator fired their backup
24:31
quarterback Latif he's injured. Emmett Johnson opt out for the
24:35
draft. That guard they got from Notre
24:38
Dame, he opted out. He started all 12 games for
24:41
Nebraska. I mean, they're missing a ton of
24:44
key pieces on the offensive side of the ball.
24:47
If you're leaning the over here, you better hope Utah does most
24:50
of the heavy lifting. I think like DraftKings has 14,
24:55
but I'm sure there's 13 and a halfs out there.
24:58
I didn't bet this because I I had three already here.
25:02
I don't like to go too crazy during bowl season, but if for
25:05
some reason I felt like a fourth game, this would be it.
25:09
Especially if I could find a 13 1/2 somewhere.
25:12
Right, we're going to move on. Here we go.
25:17
Oh, Tim, you can go last year because we know you got
25:20
something to say about your two favorite team.
25:24
So, all right, Arlington, TX, I believe this is in the the
25:28
Cotton Bowl, I believe open line Ohio State -9 1/2 over under 42
25:32
and a half. Darren, kick us off here.
25:35
Where you going? I'm just going to say, as much
25:38
as I want to bet Ohio State, I think that's too many points.
25:43
I mean, last time we saw a state, they I, they had a couple
25:46
drives where they moved the ball against Indiana and Granite.
25:49
Indiana has an excellent defense, but so does Miami.
25:52
But you have two good drives like that and that Big 10
25:54
champion team and you come away with 0 points.
25:56
I mean, Miami's defense is capable of doing the same thing
25:59
to Julian saying and that offense.
26:01
That being said, Ohio State's defense is anything to sneeze at
26:05
either. And we all know Carson Beck is
26:08
more than capable of handing this game to the Buckeyes
26:13
without too much trouble. So if anything, I kind of lean
26:19
the under here because both these defenses are really,
26:21
really good. But because I expect an under, I
26:25
would probably take the points just, you know, doing some math.
26:30
I just think that's too many points.
26:33
But I'm not betting it because I hate Miami.
26:35
But if I had to take a play, I would take those points,
26:39
especially if you can find a 10 between now and then.
26:42
But I'd I'd be all right with the 9 1/2.
26:45
Peter, what an interesting game. So there is a team I hate far
26:51
more than Miami, which is that other team on the spot so.
26:55
I make a bowl game for us like the two teams that we hate the
26:59
most so. I would love to see Miami pound
27:02
the crap out of the Buckeyes in this game.
27:04
I would be thrilled to see that happen.
27:07
I I'm sorry Tim, but I would be naked running around the living
27:11
room if that were happening 'cause that would make me very,
27:13
very happy. Don't you do that normally?
27:15
I mean, isn't, no, I normally do that.
27:16
But, you know, I mean, that's like a, that's a, that's a
27:19
Wednesday ritual, isn't it? Anyway, yeah, everything if you
27:25
look every everything you just said there and you read
27:27
everything on paper, you look at everybody's get picks out there,
27:31
under, under, under, under, right, defense, both sides, slow
27:35
game, all that, right? I am going completely contrary
27:39
to that, right. I am betting the over in this
27:42
game of 42 1/2. I think we're going to get
27:44
something. Well, I got 41 1/2, but I was
27:47
reading off your slide there. So 41 1/2 and the over is the
27:49
actual number that I got. I think.
27:52
I think this is going to go a little contrary to what we would
27:54
normally see in a game like this with the defenses that does
27:57
happen occasionally with games when you have two good defenses
28:00
like this. I I think we're going to see
28:02
that. I think you're going to see the
28:04
playbooks open up a little bit. I think they're going to have
28:06
to, especially in the second-half.
28:09
Yeah, I cannot wait to watch this game.
28:12
As long as the Buckeyes aren't pounding Miami, because at that
28:15
point I will turn it off. But as long as that's not
28:18
happening, I'm really excited for this game.
28:19
But I do think you're going to see more points scored than you
28:22
would normally think would be based on what's on paper here.
28:26
And so I am going one unit on the over 41 1/2 and sorry but
28:32
cocaines. Well, to paraphrase what you
28:36
said, I would love to see Ohio State beat the living crap out
28:40
of Miami. So I apologize to all of my
28:45
Michigan friends. You know, Ohio State is in the
28:49
top five teams I don't like, but Miami is cemented at #1 So I, I
28:55
would say, you know, Miami, FL, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State.
29:00
So there's like my, my top five. But yeah, I mean, I'm almost
29:06
tempted to just bet Miami money line to totally jinx it since my
29:09
picks have been totally ass all year and this year really cannot
29:14
end quickly enough from my bankroll.
29:17
But yeah, I'm, I'm in the opposite.
29:20
I would you know, I will be running around naked in in my
29:22
living room if Ohio State is beating the crap out of Miami.
29:27
I also agree with with on the yeah, I I I still like the under
29:33
here. I think both defenses are pretty
29:34
good. We're very good.
29:37
But yeah, I just it's going to ruin my New Year's, even if my
29:41
wife's making our lucky crab rangoons for the game.
29:44
So for pulling out all the stops here, all the science, I may bet
29:48
money line Miami just to throw the jinx a little bit more, but
29:52
I really want someone to beat Miami and end their season, the
29:56
sooner the better. Any final thoughts from you guys
29:59
you know in? Conclusion One of us will be
30:01
naked during this game. Yes.
30:05
So hopefully it's me. I apologize to the neighbors.
30:10
As soon as this game kicks off, I'm blocking both of you for the
30:13
next 4. Hours.
30:17
All right, the other playoff game, Oregon and Texas Tech,
30:20
it's going to be at noon in Miami.
30:22
We got Texas Tech -1 1/2. It moved to 2 1/2, but over
30:27
under a 52 1/2. All right, Darren, you want to
30:31
go first? Yeah.
30:32
I mean, now I'm looking. Oregon is favored laying 2 1/2
30:36
here. 51 1/2 now is the total at DraftKings as we're sitting
30:40
here. Initially, I would like going
30:44
into this whole bracket thing before any of these first round
30:47
games were played. I would have been all over
30:49
Oregon here, but I was not impressed with what I saw
30:53
defensively in that second-half a game.
30:55
James Madison, I mean, I know you had that game in hand, but
30:59
you gave up a 99 yard drive in the fourth quarter there.
31:04
That and Texas Tech's defense is no joke.
31:07
I mean, I get it. They play in the Big 12, but it
31:12
I, I couldn't do it. I, I couldn't bet Oregon here
31:16
just because that fourth quarter scared the hell out of me.
31:19
And I mean Texas Tech, they went all in, man.
31:22
They spent a crap ton of money. They made all the right
31:25
purchases. It's paying off for them.
31:27
If they win this, it would not surprise me one bit.
31:32
I like Oregon, but I can't bet this game, man.
31:36
I I passed on it all together, but yeah, just the the slightest
31:43
of leans to Oregon, but not not confident enough to to put any
31:48
money down here. All right.
31:52
Well, full transparency, I really want to bet the over on
31:56
this game. Every time I see Oregon, I'm
31:57
thinking Oregon equals over. I look at the offenses, I look,
32:01
you know everything. And because I'm so convinced
32:05
that the over is going to hit, I'm betting the under.
32:08
So I have a bet here of one year of under.
32:11
I believe it's 50. Let me pull this up here, 52
32:15
1/2. Like I said this this year's
32:19
been every time I'm so sure of a pick, it always comes in the
32:22
opposite. So I every time I bet the over,
32:25
I'm sitting and watching Dr. stall field goals get clanked
32:29
off the side coaches like, you know, messing up calling bubble
32:34
screens on 3rd and 13. So they deserve all the
32:37
punishment they get for this. So I'm going against my
32:40
instincts. You know, Oregon's efficiency
32:44
meets Texas Tech's defense. The drive's going to get longer.
32:48
The the clock's going to keep moving.
32:50
And usually what would normally happen is my overbed is dead by
32:55
halftime. So I'm bending under, not
32:58
because I don't like points, but because I know myself.
33:01
So if the over decides to hit, you're welcome.
33:05
I took the bullet so you don't have to, Pete.
33:07
Any thoughts on this game? Yeah, you just did what I did in
33:11
the last game, right? You went Contra to your what
33:14
everything would say to you is probably the right play.
33:18
Every ounce of my being screams over in this game.
33:22
I so wanted to play the over. I mean every I mean just
33:25
everything feels like this is an over all day long, which is why
33:29
I'm not playing it because it's probably wrong.
33:31
I it's just it it because it feels so clearly to be an over
33:35
to me. That's when I get myself in
33:37
trouble when I bet these that's why I didn't bet.
33:40
So I like your bet because that is probably that's generally
33:43
what happens. If I feel that strongly
33:45
something's an over, it probably is not going to be There's
33:47
something that's going to happen.
33:49
I like this. This score makes sense.
33:51
I would I just think it's going to be the opposite.
33:53
I do think Oregon's going to win this game.
33:55
I could see 2824 the other way for sure.
33:57
I could see that this type of score make a lot of sense.
34:00
I do think Oregon's going to win this game though, and I like
34:02
that team. Although Texas Tech is really
34:04
good too. So this is like NFL White.
34:06
This is going to be a really good game.
34:08
I mean, I, I look forward to watching this game, this team,
34:10
these teams. Will be the most fun of the of
34:12
the quarterfinal games. Yeah, these are these are two
34:15
good teams. So I'm I'm looking forward to
34:16
watching this game. So be interesting to keep our
34:20
eyes on. So now we're going to move on to
34:22
this will be a very interesting game as well.
34:24
Indiana and Alabama on the 1st at 4:00.
34:28
Opening line is Indiana -7 with a over under of 48 1/2 - 6 1/2 I
34:35
saw on Hard Rock Bet and FanDuel.
34:38
So if you have those and you can get the extra half point there,
34:40
go ahead and grab it. Peter, we'll start with you with
34:43
this game. What are you thinking now?
34:46
You know what? Usually just bet totals.
34:47
I didn't bet anything here, just to be clear, but lay those
34:51
points. Take Indiana.
34:54
I mean, as far as I'm concerned, Bama didn't belong here in the
34:56
1st place. They're going to get exposed by
34:59
a superior team here. Indiana is going to throttle
35:02
them. They're going to beat them
35:04
double digits all day long here. Not a Question of the World II
35:09
is a far better team. So that's that.
35:11
I mean, I think that I I might bet that even though I don't
35:14
usually weigh points in that like that.
35:16
But yeah, that to me is a that's a low number.
35:18
I love playing 7 here all all day long.
35:21
So that's direction I would go. Heck, I may bet that when we're
35:24
done here today. So that's my thoughts, Darren.
35:28
I have nothing to add. I agree with everything Pete
35:30
said. It's up to 7 1/2 at FanDuel and
35:32
I wouldn't surprise me if it hits 8 or 8 1/2 by kickoff.
35:36
I love Indiana here also. Went back up again.
35:40
Yeah, it's it's well, there's you're going to see that there's
35:43
going to be a reason for that because Alabama still has no run
35:45
game. You know, and I agree with Pete.
35:48
I mean, we talked about how good Oklahoma's defense was and yeah,
35:51
that, I mean, they're a decent defense, but I mean, you know,
35:56
Mater throws the pick 6. I don't see Mendoza doing that
36:00
here. I think everything he said is
36:03
right. I think Alabama's gonna get
36:06
brutally disposed of here. I mean, Indiana's legit, man.
36:10
I mean, they look great no matter who they're playing as.
36:14
A team that went into Oregon and beat them, what, 30 to 20 or
36:17
whatever it was? And now you're giving Kurt
36:20
Signetti extra time to prepare for this.
36:24
Yeah, this is. I would I would love to see
36:26
Indiana or Texas Tech win this thing.
36:29
The whole Indiana would be lovely.
36:31
I don't think Texas Tech is, but I think you got a shot with
36:33
Indiana. They are.
36:35
Enough money, that's for damn sure.
36:36
That's no well, oh, here we go. Thursday, 8:00 New Orleans in
36:44
the Sugar Bowl opening line. Georgia -6 1/2, but over under
36:48
55 1/2, who wants to go first? Darren, do you want to go first?
36:53
I did lay the 6 1/2 with Georgia and and Tim, please don't jinx
36:58
me on this because I know you're you're in agreement here.
37:02
But yeah, I mean, I remember, I mean, we were all sitting at
37:05
some restaurant in, in Florida when these two teams played
37:09
last. And Ole Miss had a nice little
37:11
lead going in the fourth quarter.
37:13
And then Georgia put the freaking beat out on that.
37:17
And Georgia wasn't even playing that well.
37:20
Georgia is now playing much better football than they were
37:23
during this game. The first time I think Ole Miss
37:26
is going to get is, I want to say, exposed.
37:30
I still think they're a good team here.
37:31
But I did the bet because I still was getting the 6 1/2
37:35
here. 7, I may be like, OK, stay away.
37:39
But Georgia's defense is coming around.
37:42
Yeah, I laid the 6 1/2. All right, well, I'll go ahead
37:47
and get my bed here. I also laid the 6 1/2 here.
37:52
I'm going to lay it with the dogs.
37:53
I'm also going to under 55 1/2. You know, Mississippi, they rely
37:58
on the big play. They go for it on 4th down an
38:00
awful lot. Georgia is built for this kind
38:03
of matchup, I believe. They're physical.
38:06
They limit the explosive plays. You know, the total is 55 1/2.
38:12
Would suggest to track me. I think it's going to go the
38:14
other way. Big time possessions games, the
38:19
game tightens up the longer drives, fewer freebies.
38:23
And if Georgia gets the lead, you know, Kirby smarts a good
38:26
coach. He's not going to do to hurry
38:27
up. He's he gets a two or three
38:29
score lead, he's going to sit there and he's going to run the
38:31
ball and work the clock. So I like Georgia minus the 6
38:34
1/2 and I like the under a 55 1/2 Peter.
38:41
Don't have a bet, but I love both both of these I mean, I
38:44
would I agree Georgia is going to win this game.
38:46
They're they're made for these games.
38:49
I mean this team just plays well in these games.
38:51
The only time they lose these games is when they run across
38:54
A-Team that's just better than them and there aren't many teams
38:57
better than them in these games. So I, you know, I, I truly think
38:59
they're going to win. So I love playing the points.
39:01
I agree with the honder. I think this defense is going to
39:04
be raring to go. I think they're going to hold
39:05
hold this down and I think you're going to see a score
39:08
maybe even less than this for Ole Miss.
39:10
We'll see. But yeah, this, these, both of
39:13
these make perfect sense to me, so love it.
39:16
And the other thing I think that, you know, that I thought
39:18
about this was, you know, this Georgia team was in the playoff
39:21
last year. So they do have that experience
39:23
or Ole Miss has not. And you go back to, you know,
39:27
2023 Michigan, we're 2022 Michigan, I believe got spanked.
39:31
Well, I think it's spanked, but they played terrible against
39:33
TCU. McCarthy didn't look like he
39:35
knew what he was doing, but he had that big game experience.
39:38
He comes back the following year.
39:39
They beat Bam in the Rose Bowl. They go on to win the national
39:42
championship. So I think there is something to
39:44
be said for teams that have actually participated in last
39:47
year's twelve team playoff as well.
39:49
So again, that experience there leads me to to bet Georgia.
39:53
Here. OK, well, that's going to wrap
39:57
it up for now. We'll be back again later on.
39:59
We have some four or five games after the playoff here.
40:03
So let's wrap this up, Pete, what you got this week?
40:07
Try to stay positive in our bowls here.
40:08
So Iowa, Iowa Bandy under 46 1/2, Michigan and Texas under 48
40:15
1/2, and Miami and Ohio State Bill Kings over 441 1/2.
40:22
All right, and I am continuing to be horrible.
40:24
We have Oregon, Texas Tech under 52 1/2, Georgia -6 1/2, and I
40:31
also have Georgia old miss. I have the under 55 1/2 this
40:36
year. Cannot get over quickly enough.
40:37
Thank God for the Rams who currently are getting their
40:40
asses kicked 21 nothing, but they've been keeping me a float
40:42
sort of. Darren, what you got this week?
40:45
Yeah, I should have just not picked any game for the rest of
40:49
the season and just sad on my record because it's probably
40:53
going to come crashing down at some point.
40:55
But I actually do kind of like these three, which means I
40:58
probably have a one and two week incoming here.
41:00
But yeah, I went USC laying the 6 1/2 over TCU, laid the three
41:04
with Duke over Arizona State, and went with you, Tim, laying
41:08
the 6 1/2 in Georgia over Ole Miss.
41:11
I'll apologize to you now. Sorry for jinxing.
41:13
That that's all right, man. I don't blame you.
41:16
All right, everybody that's going to wrap, wrap it up for
41:18
this episode. Please don't forget to like and
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subscribe to our YouTube channel and our Spotify and our Apple
41:25
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41:27
We hope you had a Merry Christmas, have a happy New
41:29
year, enjoy the playoffs, and we'll be back later on this week
41:33
with the rest of the games. We'll see you next time.